(NEWSER) – The nation's first primary has begun—and the only thing that appears certain is that New Hampshire will deliver different winners than the Iowa caucuses did. Some factors to watch out for in the state's 100th primary:

  • Bernie Sanders looks like a sure thing, according to the forecast at FiveThirtyEight, which puts his chances of winning at more than 99%. The senator from neighboring Vermont has a double-digit lead in the latest polls, Politico notes.
  • According to FiveThirtyEight's calculations, Donald Trump has a 70% chance of winning the GOP race, with John Kasich and Marco Rubio tied in second with a 10% chance each. Jeb Bush has a 6% chance of winning, while Ted Cruz has a 4% chance of repeating his Iowa victory.
  • NPR explains how people casting anti-Trump votes could end up helping him. It's because of a state "threshold" rule: Candidates must get at least 10% of the vote to be awarded any delegates—if they fall short of that percentage, their delegates go to the overall winner, likely Trump.

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