Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
You're listening to Fox sports radio. Are you ready to
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This is Fox sports radios countdown to kickoff, presented by
bet MGM. We're live from your tail game. Here's Brian No,
former Penn State all American, Rich Mornberger, and picks wise
(00:46):
lead Betty analyst, Jared Smith. Oh, what's going on everybody?
Good morning, welcome in. Ball is in the air, baby,
and and good news, because our guy, rich orin Berger,
was not breaking the sound barrier running from hotel to
hotel in Salt Lake City looking for an ether net
(01:08):
plugging over there and everything good with you today, right?
There was no late night heroics trying to sprint from
hotel lobby the hotel lobby to find somebody who had
an internet connection reliable enough to talk to you find, gentlemen,
this morning. I'm ready to go. You know, I'm just thinking, jared,
(01:29):
when's the last time because I'm thinking to myself, when's
the last time I had a brisk run? You know,
rich had a brisk run last week. I've tried to
think the last time I had a brisk run. How
about you? I remember actually it was when I lived
in New York and I was trying to get from
place to place in the city, just, you know, dodging
people on the side, because you know people in New York,
(01:50):
they don't walk like normal humans. They walk like they
have somewhere to go that's very important and way more
important than you and they will run you over to
get to that place. That's pretty much living in New
York City. That's almost a daily thing there. Brisk, brisk runners.
Also getting to the subway like the biggest and I
would have put this on par with where where rich's
heart was, when you're walking down the subway stairs and
(02:13):
you see the subway pull up and you're like, I
gotta make it before that subway cart leaves. That's a
that's an anxious run there. Brisk Thinking, Felix, I don't
know if you're gonna briskly run to the bedding window
on a couple of these games, but a couple of
big matchups to kick off the show. I love this
Clemson wake forest matchup. CLEMSON number five in the country,
(02:37):
wake forest, the demon deeks, hanging on at number twenty one.
We've got the line at seven right now, at bed MGM.
Of course Clemson has favored. It's up to seven and
a half. It's ticked up just a little bit. You
got seven in a hook now. I just think this
guy's I think slow Mesh meeting a dominant D line
bad mix for them. You're bad mixed. You're I like
(03:00):
Clemson in this one. What do you guys feeling? Yeah,
I mean, if just it doesn't feel like the deeks
are gonna have enough, although I will say this, Sam
Hartman is one of the more efficient passers in the
country when he's on, when this when this Deacon's offense
is on, lookout man. Now they're going into a task
(03:23):
against Clemson, whose defense has been positively suffocating, and they
are not going to get it going on the ground.
If they're gonna win it, wake forest has to heave
this football, because right now the defense is only allowing
two point four yards per carry on the ground. They
just got back there. UH, they're all everything defensive tackle.
(03:45):
So I have a feeling it's going to be one
of those long, hard days for the wake forest offense
if they can't get the passing game going. But the
passing game has been going M I love this game,
Um and this is so week four now we're kind
of in at we have a little data to go
off of and we have some really juicy matchup today.
(04:05):
This is absolutely one of them. So when I think
about this game big picture, wakes competed in over the years,
you know, but they've been in some of these games.
They haven't won these games, but they've been in some
of these games and I'm wondering if they have enough
to get over the hump. I think the Clemson Defense,
(04:25):
which you guys you know highlighted, is certainly gonna be
the crux of this. Handicap. Is Sam Hartman a pent?
The one thing that would lead me to the know
there is he's only attempted eight non sack runs in
the two games that he's been back, and that scares
me a little bit because the part of this game
(04:45):
that could open up that Clemson offense with that slow
Mesh is him keeping it and running it and making
clemson be a little bit more weary of the quarterback
run game. That hasn't been a factor in the two
games that he's returned. The offensive line for wake returns
a bunch of starters, but they've been subpar through three
games and the running back play has been poor as well.
(05:07):
Justice Ellison last year average five yards per carriages, three
and a half this year. So there are some red
flags on this wake forest offense where last I think,
they scored forty five points in this game. Last year
it was a back and fourth game. CLEMSON ended up winning,
but I just I don't know if wake has the
horses this year to keep up with a clemson offense
that's starting to figure things out. We were making fun
(05:29):
of Dj After Week One. You know, the ridicule certainly
was worthy based off of his numbers, but he's starting
to figure it out a little bit and he's starting
to run the football and that element to his game
I think is gonna present issues for wake forest defense,
which has been a disaster. So I like Clemson in
this spot too. I'd even be willing to pay an
extra ten cents to go from minus one ten to
(05:49):
minus one twenty and get it to the seven, which
is obviously a very key number, but I see wake
struggling to move the football in this game. Yeah, I
just like these lines that make me squirm a little bit.
You know where it's seven and a half, it's like, Oh,
you really want to go with Clemson in that offense?
That's a little bit Herky Jerky right like. But and
(06:10):
then you look at the total, fifty five and a half,
you might think, oh, with that d line, I'm thinking under.
But is that what you really want to go with?
It defense, I know wakes defense and wait, can, can
toss it, man. It's just it's one of those lines
that makes you squirm a little bit. I'm with you, jared.
I like the seven and a half on Clemson side.
I would lay it if I have to. I like
(06:31):
your advice there Beddett down to a key number in seven.
I think that's really good advice right there. But I
just can't get last week out of my mind. Sometimes
that's to a detriment. You gotta get rid of last
week because it's college football. Things change quickly. But when
wake is holding on against liberty and all but abandons
their running game against the numbers have success against Clemson.
(06:55):
They were not good in that game, for wake, the
offensive line, the success rate against liberty. I will say this, though,
when when we start getting into these conference matchups, what
you tend to see is, even though it is still
prerogative number one for every team to win by the
largest margins possible, coaches begin to start to play tight
(07:20):
and preserve leads and call off the dogs. Defensively, you
don't see as much pressure or urgencies. Start seeing more
coverage in the second half, in the fourth quarter because, yeah,
don't get me wrong, winning by the largest margin possible
is the goal. If you can, conference wins are huge
because you win your conference, it gives you an automatic
(07:42):
boost in the CFP standings. It it matters for something,
and then if it's tagged along with the one loss
or an undefeated season, obviously you've punched your ticket. So look,
you know, I understand there's a lot of point totals that,
to put it the way Brian did, make you squirm.
But this is one of those weeks and next week
to week four and week five, when conference play starts
(08:03):
getting opened up across N C double a football where
you start to see coaches who normally are lighting up
the scoreboard like it's a video game, start to play
a little bit more tight in the second half. It's
another interesting thing too. Maybe wake didn't want to put
a lot on tape against liberty last week because they
knew they had this game coming up. And that's another thing.
(08:24):
You know the week, and that's why we always talk
about those look ahead games, because sometimes it's it's a
scheme thing and we definitely have to give you know,
our our our Kudos and and our our shout to
Brian Brace. You know, you you mentioned the Clemson Stud
Defensive Lineman, you know, lost his sister to brain cancer recently.
I think the defense is going to rally around him.
Just a really tragic story and and and a really
(08:44):
heartwarming story for him to return to the lineup so quickly.
And this is a clemson defense that already doesn't need
any extra motivation to be really good, but I would
expect there to be heavy hearts and and, you know,
some added incentive for them to really perform well with
brief returning to line he's a fantastic might be the best,
one of the best defenders in the country. So that's
a huge uplifting thing for that clemson defense. It's Fox
(09:07):
sports radios countdown to kickoff, presented by bet MGM. We're
giving you some analysis and a lot of fun. Right,
this isn't a calculus exam. We're having some fun as well. Um,
there's something I wanted to hit on because something you
said rich where we always talk about prevent defense, I
have coined a term after after watching Mario Cristo Baul
at Oregon, and this goes back to the Justin Herbert days,
(09:31):
prevent offense. You see this a Latin College football, where
you have a big lead and it's like, let's not
do anything risky, let's let's hand it off, and sometimes
that allows a team to catch up just as much
as a prevent defense does. And so I'm curious in
this game, let's say Clemson has a decent sized lead.
They've had their issues offensively. How conservative do they get
(09:54):
if they're on the road and they're up by, say,
ten points late? Are they conservative to a fault, or
do they stay aggressive, because sometimes you need to stay
aggressive to keep your lead? Well, this is where head
coaching becomes the biggest factor, right, you know they'll be
offensive minded head coach who say look, Pedalton metal. I
trust our offense. And then there are some offensive minded
(10:15):
coaches who say, Hey, look, here's the time where we
employ our four minute offense and we start to slow
this game down, take our time out of the Hullo.
You know it's ten seconds, seven seconds left on the
play clock. Ready break. Okay, let's get the line of scrimmage.
Take our time evaluate the defense and and and, you know,
you just slow down the whole operation. You Mix it
(10:36):
more run plays, maybe some that are callbacks from the
first half that you had success with gashing the defense
you're playing against, where their high percentage runs for you. You
You bring them back in the second half again with
the whole intent to keep the offense on the field
for as long as humanly possible. And then, defensively, you know,
concordingly with sapping off offensively, you want to try to
(10:59):
you want tobviously try to force three and outs, but
you want to do it in ways where you're only
rushing at the most five if you're looking to play Conservative, conservative,
you know, single blitz, where you can still play, you know,
zone or man, you know against whatever personnel groups you're seeing.
You know gives you some options defensively. So you're not
getting overexposed. It's it's just look, it's it's not every coach,
(11:23):
it's not every coach, but I'll tell you right now,
when you're a defensive coordinator who sends blitz zero on
a third and five on your own forty eight yard
line and the team you had a ten point lead
on scores six and now they're kicking the extra point
and the margin has shrunk, the head coach is going
is walking straight to the D C and saying, why
(11:45):
the Hell did you do that to us? And so
that's what I'm talking about. Especially once you get into
conference play you start to see a little bit more
of that game management at the end of games. Rich
nailed it. So it's honestly the coaching at the collegiate
level and it matters in the NFL, but it matters
so much more in college because it's more paint by
number scheme. There's less freedom, you know, for these guys
(12:06):
to kind of audible and go through some checks and
say see things and change things. So where there initial
positions are is crucial. And with Clemson you get Tony Elliott,
the offensive coordinator last year at Virginia now interesting game
plan for them last night against Syracuse. We can get
into that at the layer time if you want. But
in steps Brandon Street. Or now this is his fourth
(12:26):
game as the offensive coordinator and there's been these moments
where you've wondered what Clemson's scheme and overall plan is. Well,
now they're in conference play on the road in a
quote unquote blackout environment. We'll see how you know, you
know raucous it is at noon and in in in
Winston Salem. But I think there's something about this game where,
(12:47):
if I'm Brandon Street, I want to put my stamp
in this in this job and say I'm the offensive coordinator,
I'm gonna drop fifty on wake forest today and show
people that the struggles we had early season aren't really true.
So there's a little bit of aggression, I would say,
based off of that. You know, mental handicap your making.
But at the end of the day you're right, right.
(13:07):
It's about getting a w it doesn't matter what the
end score is. To us it does, but to the
coaches it doesn't. They just want to get a win. Man,
Virginia should have won that game. We'll get that a
little bit later. It's ugly. At the end. Be sure
to check out the new looking features in the bed
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the bet MGM APP we are often running. You could
make a great argument for a couple of games in
the SEC is the matchup of the day. Which one
is that we will hold in coming up, right around
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Let's do it. Sec Matchup of the day. Look, I
think you could make an argument, guys, about a couple
of matchups here. I think we're going with Florida at Tennessee, though,
(14:40):
right when you get the Steve Spurry, your classic trash
talk of you can't spell citrus without ut. Come on,
that's just top shelf. You get Tennessee right all the
way right now and on bet mgm they're favored by
eleven points. I think it's too much. I used to
too much over we got Anthony Richardson, might be a
(15:01):
first round NFL draft pick eventually. I know he struggled
the last couple of weeks, especially last week. He's thrown
four picks and no touchdown passes on the year. But
when you have a first round talent and, oh by
the way, history is on your side, you have the
gators winning sixteen of the last seventeen matchups in this series,
(15:23):
I just think getting eleven points, I like the gators here. Yeah,
you know what, that is a big number, Um and,
and history is a funny thing, right. There are just
certain teams. You were talking about Clemson wake a moment ago,
a CC battle. You look at this SEC battle and
one side has completely dominated this series, and that's true
(15:45):
with Clemson wake forrest as well, you know. I mean
how many times over the last seven team meetings have
we seen wake forest win too? So it's just one
of those things that sort of looms in the background
of these matchups, and this one income prince rival had.
That's a big number. Yeah, I'm I'm leaning Florida myself.
(16:08):
Massive number, and the numbers moved significantly towards Tennessee over
the last, you know, a few days, and it makes sense.
Florida really struggled against USF and when I say really struggled,
I mean they were lucky to escape with their heads
intact Um and Tennessee's looked really good. Here's the part
about Florida that scares me and this is the part
(16:30):
that I think we are going to focus on with
this team. First of all, everyone was ready to give
Anthony Richardson the heisman trophy after that week one game
against let's let's pump the brakes here, people, and here's why.
Out of a hundred and thirty seven qualifying quarterbacks in
college football, he is grading out a hundred and thirty four.
Not Good, and he's been very limited with his progressions.
(16:51):
He's been limited with how we can push the ball
down the field and I think he took a little
bit of a knock in that game against Kentucky because
he's only at twenty eight rushing yards in the last
two games. So there's a little bit of injury concern
with his legs and that's the part of his game
that needs to excel. And there's also a part of
his game that I think is just a little bit
(17:13):
unpolished as a passer. And here's the thing about Billy Napier,
who I think the honeymoon is kind of over. He
hasn't hate. The gators haven't scored a point in the
third quarter yet this year. I thought Billy Napier was
this guru that was gonna come in and offensively, gonna
Change things around halftime make all these adjustments. That is
something that needs to change against this Tennessee offense today.
(17:35):
If they go scoreless in the third quarter today, Tennessee
is covering this number because, Josh hypel, they run fast,
one of the quickest tempos in the country. I think
the GATOR's defensive line a little thin. You know, they've
only sacked the quarterback three times in three games and
they really were struggling to to shut down Utah's interior
run game. If Utah doesn't bumble away those Red Zone possessions,
(17:55):
they win that game. So I think this is a
tough spot for Florida. But you're right, Brian. The line
has moved to a point where you have to take
them seriously at ten and a half eleven and there's
no real market direction. Today I'm seeing action on both sides.
Looks like the two way game, but it's tough for
me to lay that many points with with with Tennessee.
But I I struggle with Florida keeping up in this game. Look, man,
(18:16):
and we gotta mention Hendon Hooker, the Tennessee quarterback. Since
becoming Tennessee starter, he's accounted for forty two touchdowns with
just two interceptions. That's it's pretty good right there. Man.
And and you add this, because I always you get
the the betting devil, as I call it, if you're
betting this game, if you're thinking Florida plus eleven, you
(18:39):
get the betting devil that starts whispering things that could
go wrong, like, oh, Hendon Hooker, look at these numbers.
Look at the Florida rush defense. They gave up two
thirty against Utah and the opener. They gave up two eighties,
six on the ground last week the South Florida. That's
a ton. So you think about Tennessee, if they're able
to run it effectively, end passive effect you gotta match points.
(19:01):
That's a lot to deal with. But I still go
back to I don't know why. Sometimes these surprise teams
we overvalue them, and with Tennessee we haven't seen them
get off to a start like this in quite some time.
We haven't seen them be like, Oh wow, they're number
eleven in the country, they're undefeated, they have some real momentum,
they look like a real team. I think that we
(19:23):
look at them with rose colored glasses sometimes, where they
beat up on a couple of MAC teams, big deal,
I don't care. And you barely survived against Pitt who's
far from a juggernaut. So I just think that if
Tennessee had it cranked up the last couple of years,
I don't think that we'd be drooling about them right now.
I think they are partially a byproduct of sucking out
(19:46):
loud for so long that we said, Oh wow, look
at them now, they're often running. I think we're overrating
them a little bit. I'll give you a reason for
the Florida gators. I'll give you a reason for the
Tennessee volunteers. Richardson needs another moment week one against the utes.
That was huge. That was huge fourth quarter, what he
was able to do, especially down near the goal line.
(20:07):
I mean he was sensational, and that's when the underdog, uh,
you know, dark horse, Heisman talk began and then Kentucky
USF you sort of disappear off the radar for a
few moments and then he's back in this game. Number Twenty,
taken on number eleven and needs another big moment. Here's
here's why that makes sense. Certain quarterbacks are gamers. Certain
(20:29):
quarterbacks they just they're the lights turn on when the
lights turn on, and this is one of those moments
and he may be feeling it. Like there there are
guys who just need all the juice to get themselves
going and flowing. So there's that. On the volunteer side,
it kind of comes back to Anthony Richardson again and
how many throws he's made that were almost interceptions. If
(20:51):
you've been paying attention over his first three games of
the season, he's throwing some balls where you're like, where
are you going with a kid he himself into trouble
and they haven't gotten into big trouble yet. But some
of those throws are wildly off the mark. He really
hasn't had a big throw yet this season where you
know it's hit the highlight reels. So if they have
(21:12):
to lean on his arm to get them to win today,
it's gonna be rough going. I got the balls, but
either way, again in conference battles, it feels like it
should be closer than eleven. Yeah, a couple of notes
here before we kick it to the rest of the Games.
But so I'll be honest, this is the first road
(21:33):
game of the season for Florida. That scares me a
little bit. It is. And this is also the first
time the valls have ever been favored by more than
a touchdown in this series, and I don't know if
that speaks to Tennessee's success or maybe Florida's you know,
sputtering a little bit, but you know, when the market
moves that much away from a traditional game that has
(21:54):
been close over the years, it does lean you to
the dog. But I just struggle with Anthony Richardson on
the road. I agree with he might need that, like
it's one of those Oh, it's a practice game against
USF I'll just go through the motions and we'll just
escape with the wind. Now you'll see the game get raised,
but at some point you have to put the full
package together. quarterback throwing at quarterback running it, and we've
(22:16):
really only seen one part of his game so far.
Speaking of raising our game, our game is always raised
when we invite in Isaac Lohan Krown for the latest.
Mr Ilo, what is going on this morning? You know, uh,
my ego needed some puffing up this morning. Mission Accomplished, Brian. Great.
(22:37):
Appreciate it. I'll tell you what. Albert pools ego doesn't
need any more puffing up because he did plenty on
his own. On Friday night, the St Louis Cardinal Slugger
making history at dodger stadium, hitting to home runs, and
the second was historic. And there goes love field way back.
(22:58):
That's run number seven. Two rules hit's a three run
homer and he hit six at dodger stadium. The venerable
John Rooney with a call on K M o X.
Cardinals beat the dodgers eleven and nothing is Pooh holds
joined Babe Ruth, Henry, Aaron and Barry Bonds in the
(23:18):
seven hundred home run club. Aaron judge remained at sixty
home runs. In the Yankees five for victory over the
Red Sox, judge went one for four. A single, two strikeouts,
deep fly out to left field. Yankees magic number to
clinch the A L East, by the way, is five
mets one. In Oakland, nine to two Edwardo Escobar a
grand slam as the mets extended their lead in the
(23:40):
National League east to two and a half games because
the braves lost to Philadelphia Nine to one. College football
on Friday night, you Tapa, two touchdown underdog according to
bet mgm defeated Boise State Twenty seven to ten. Syracuse
defeated Virginia twenty two to twenty. Andre Schmidt the game
winning field goal with one four team to play, his
(24:02):
fifth field goal of the ball game. Fellas back to you.
That was such trash Virginia had. They absolutely had it. Jared,
can you tell I got him on an in game
line there? I went money line. Yeah, five to one.
I'm like, I took the ten with Virginia. That was
the best bet that I gave out yesterday on picks wise. Um, listen, Virginia.
(24:25):
I don't know what's going on with their offense, but
we just talked about Tony Elliott with Clemson, but they
were they were a thirty five point per game team
last year and now they're in the teens. That's a
I mean and they've got a ton of talent. Armstrong's
got all the talent in the world. They got some
dudes on the outside too. I love that they have
a receiver, I forget his name, that wears number ninety nine.
That's just. That's that's just. That's a that's that's a
(24:48):
bold move right there. Usually ninety nine reserved for the
biggest dude on the team, but he got this tall,
lanky wide receiver that wears it and it's he's pretty good.
He's one of the better wide receivers, I think, in
the a sec Um. But that Virginia that I feel
bad for putting my followers watching that game last night.
I forced them to watch that game because we've Bet Virginia.
But Um, yeah, that was not easy on the eyes.
(25:12):
There are certain teams I'll watch and I'm like, I'm
glad I'm not a fan of theirs, you know what
I mean. Like Armstrong, he's got talent. It's just a
decision making. Fourth down, fourth and three, I think at
the end, wide open, guy in the flat. He's like,
let's let's chuck it down field, though it's like the
side of the field on this one is one of
the teams, I mean the ugliest four. No, you could
(25:35):
ever ask the scuse orange for fade. And then at
some point, guys, that's gonna they're gonna be a fade
at some point. For sure. The wins they've had have
been just like nail biting victories where it's come down
to mistakes or errors or, you know, ridiculous fourth quarters.
I mean you better buy your tombs if you're an
orange family season. By the way, it's Fox sports radios
(25:58):
count down to kick off, presented by Bet Mgm. Let's
dive into this the lions death. Okay, so here's the thing.
Both of you guys went to Penn state, rich Orin Berger,
Penn state, all American, Jared Smith, MR picks wise dot
(26:21):
com lead betting analyst. You guys are proud Penn state
alums over here and you got your chest sticking straight out.
They just smacked around an SEC team in Auburn on
the road and you want to flex a little bit here.
It feels good. It feels good and I'll tell you what,
um it's the trademark toughness of a nickney lions squad
(26:43):
that you really got a focus on. That kid, Sean Clifford,
took a walloping during that game, jumped to his feet
and was able to continue on. It's it's one of those.
It's one of those, like you said, I think it's
just because of the conference affiliation and the fact that
the big ten has sort of been dogged by the
SEC for years and years. Especially Penn state not a
(27:05):
great record against SEC teams. So yeah, that one felt good.
That one felt good. Man, I'll be honest. I've been,
not like down on the program, but just those big games.
I've been very bearish on I just I we haven't
played well in those big spots on the road, tough opponents,
(27:26):
you know, Ohio State, Michigan type of games, unless we get,
you know, field goals. I say we like I'm on
the team. Unless we get that's a permissible we right.
It's it's funny, though, it's funny, I get asked this
all the time. Oh, who are your favorite teams or
whoever I bet on that week, but to me there
is one team that still has a slice of my heart.
(27:46):
As a Gambler, I'm like this cold, ruthless money grubbing better,
but penn state still has a slice of me because
of the experiences there and and you know the fond
the fondness of going to those games as a as
a as a youthful, young sprite Um. But when I
look at Penn state as a whole this year they
were under they they were a betters paradise because they
(28:07):
were very undervalued. They weren't even ranked heading into the season.
I mean talk about a team with high end talent,
four and five star recruits as far as the eye
can see, but not getting that recognition. I mean that
is a better's dream because they're undervalued in the market
and then they go to Auburn as a three point
favorite and they, you know, completely blow the doors off.
(28:27):
So I don't know if that's gonna happen anymore the
rest of the season. I think the you know, the
stories out now. People know that Penn State's legit their
offensive lines playing better. We already knew their defense was
going to be fantastic. I think they're adapting to that
man nds scheme very well and the guy in the Backfield,
the singletary kid, is an absolute monster and he's a freshman.
(28:48):
So there is talent and now there is buzz and
we'll see. They got two tough games coming up in
the next few weeks Michigan while state they should be
the tomato can today in central Michigan. But you know,
I think their biggest games clearly in front of them.
And I'll say one thing about this line. It's big
and central Michigan is no stranger to to sort of
this level of competition. Competition Um game one of the
(29:11):
season played against Oklahoma, stated in the opener, and that
was a gigantic point scapread as well. Twenty and a half,
I think, is where it landed off by kickoff and
they racked up forty four points in the loss. So
they covered the spread. Um, they dominated last week against
Bucknell from start to finish. That was a forty one
(29:32):
to goose egg blowout. So again, different level of competition.
I understand it's the Chippawa is going against the Nitney
lions and that's a tough place to win for any team,
regardless of day, night, white out conditions, whatever. But but
this is one of those spreads where you take a
look at and you say yeah, I mean, is it
going to be a repeat performance where they hang forty
(29:53):
one and the defense plays just absolutely nuts lights out
like they did a week ago? Maybe, or maybe the
CHIPWA score couple and keep this one a closer, a
closer victory for Penn states. So I don't know. That's spread.
It's big. You know a couple of things here. Nick Singleton,
who's off to a great start at three hundred thirty
four rushing yards and four touchdowns. He's averaging. He hasn't
(30:16):
had a whole lot of carries. He's only had thirty carries.
He's averaging eleven point one yards per rush. Eleven point one.
That's freaking insane right there. So he's off to a
great start. I don't want to disrupt the Penn state
flow over here, but on a side note, I think
N I l money. It's huge for running backs because
you only have so much time in the NFL. So
(30:36):
to get that money legally in college football now I
think it's no bigger than for the running back position.
But I also I gotta come clean. I was gonna
do some friendly trash talking here where I knew this
was the lions. Then I was gonna grab an old
highlight of Oh and here's one of their bigger moments,
and it was gonna be Richard Richie Anderson in ninety
(30:56):
two getting stuffed at the goal line against the Notre
Dame fighting Irish, talking and I'm like ninety two, those guys,
these guys probably don't even remember that. We can talk
about young Irish later if you'd like. There's a lot
of buzz on them to get blasted by the tar
heels today. That's like you're rooting for that J circling
(31:17):
the stink that has been this season so far. Mac
Brown's coming in for the hammer today. Look at you
with your Nice little forty one to twelve beat down
of Auburn. And now Notre Dame. Sucks that they do
this year. You're right about about grab some Pine Pun intended.
(31:39):
Oh Man, it's been rough. Hey, every time you make
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(32:00):
you've heard the voices of the Penn State alums over here, right,
rich Orin Berger, Penn State all American, Jared Smith, lead
betting analyst from picks wise Dot Com. I'm Brian no
coming up next. Couple of things. Someone from the crew
might have gone to see Romstein last night. You'll find
(32:20):
out who. And also, I think it's a classic see
it before it happens scenario and it might be part
of a certain platter around the corner. We'll see. Keep
it locked right here. It's Fox sports radios count down
to kickoff, presented by bet MGM. He's my Carmen. I'm
Dan buyer. We have a brand new fantasy football podcast
(32:42):
called I want your flex twice a week, every Tuesday
and Friday, we come up with new episodes to not
only look back at what happened, what you need to
do at that minute, and also look ahead of what's
coming up in the fantasy football world. That's right, Dan.
Every week we're gonna scour the waiver wire and find
the pickups to turbo boost your fantasy lineup. Sits starts,
(33:04):
fantasy football players rankings to get you ready to dominate
the competition. Listen to I want your flex with Mike
Carmen and met Dan buyer on the I heart radio,
APP apple podcast and wherever you get your podcasts. Kickoffs
are coming, sue, and we're leading you up to that.
This is Fox sports radios countdown to kickoff, presented by
(33:26):
Bett mg a. The kick of sports books once again.
Here's Brian No, rich hornberger and Jared Smith are me.
It is Fox Sports Radio's countdown to kickoff presented by
bet MGM. You know, before we dive into the Parlay
(33:46):
platterer here, just on a note, our trusted producer, Ryan
burr singer, shout out to him going to the l
a coliseum last night to see Ramstein. Huh I pronounce
ten different ways. It's like Rom Stein, Romstein, Ram Stein,
I I don't know, but he was watching some metal
(34:07):
in live in Burson last night. Very nicely done by you, Ryan.
Thank you. Yes, it was. I am dragging a little
bit this morning, but it's okay. It's well worth it.
It was. It was a wild time. Were there more
people there than at the U C L A game
last week? Yes, yeah, there might be three times more,
(34:29):
who knows? Yeah, but yes, as I mentioned before, it's
time to dive into this. Check this out. Our late letter,
our parlay platter, is brought to you by bet MGM.
Earn a fifty dollar bonus by signing into bed MGM
and simply clicking on refer a friend to invite a friend,
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(34:51):
we'll receive a fifty dollar bonus. Bet Mgm, the King
of Sports Books, the King of parlays. Okay, jared, I
have who trusted sources, seeing that you might be going
big on a parlay over here in terms of the payout.
What do you have cooking up for us here? Do
you guys ever have burgers for breakfast? whoppers? Yeah, I've
(35:12):
had plenty of Burgers for breakfast. This one's a whopper.
So we haven't done well with the parlays so far and,
let's be honest, I think that's indicative of what parlays are.
They're very hard to hit. Um Sports books make the
most money out of anything on parlay. That doesn't mean
people aren't gonna beat that doesn't mean we can't have fun.
We just reduce our size. That we risk, but in
(35:32):
this particular case we are going for a home run.
Maybe not an Albert pools seven home run, but something
along those lines. So this is a money line parlay
all three underdogs and it's basically a thirty to one payoff.
We'll start with Duke. All Right, I understand Kansas is
all the fuzz right now, but they are two and
twelve against the number is a favorite since twelve. They've
(35:55):
lost six of those games out right. They're laying a
full touchdown plus today against the dukeys and this Blue
Devil's offense. Very efficient, solid offensive line. I like the quarterback,
Riley Leonard, taking a step forward in a sophomore season.
We'll put duke money line in the parlay. And then
later in the day, how about this game between Texas
and Texas Tech? I'M gonna put the Red Raiders money
(36:17):
line in this parlay. This and this Texas tech team
very good up the middle. They've got an edge, I think,
in the interior against that Longhorn's offensive line. Their top
thirty inefficiency on defense. I think the Gen Robinson is
gonna struggle a little bit in this game, which means
third and long for Hudson Card. We don't even know
if it is gonna be Hudson Card. Might Be Queen Yours,
who's not. I would expect it to be card today,
(36:40):
but he hasn't been exceptional and now he has to
go on the road with the Lubbock and face the
Texas tech defense and I think it is very solid.
So we'll put the red raiders money line in there
and then we'll close it up late night in Carvalles. Baby,
this game is gonna be so much fun. We'll dive
into it a little more later, but I'm putting Oregon
state go beaves money line and in the parlay they
(37:01):
are five and two straight up in their last seven
as a home dog. And I'll be honest, USC has
struggled up in the Pacific northwest ranked trojans teams. Oh
and three against Oregon state in their last three on
the road. So there you go. Duke Money Line, Texas
Tech Money Line, Oregon state money line. I sent you
(37:23):
the ticket last night. Fifty bones here pays out almost
hundred let's have a little fun today. Boy, I love it.
I love it, man, and I am all over the
USC Oregon State Game. I think that's a fun one. Look,
I I think it's nerve wracking for Trojans fans, and
for good reason, and you're absolutely right, jared. I mean
that's one you should really circle and really think about,
(37:46):
especially the way Oregon State has been playing offensively how
poorly USC has played defensively over the past couple of years. Now,
I get it. Kim Williams is all everything and Addison
has been great it. Man, Oh man, if the beavers
get off to a hot start, that could be trouble
up there. Yeah, we'll definitely get knee deep into that
(38:07):
matchup because I love that one and certainly some betting significance.
With the early line. This week it was Caesar's headed
at thirteen and a half and the petting betting public
was like go beeves. They swarmed that one like some vultures. Yeah,
I also think your first pick, jared, going with the
(38:30):
dookies as the money line team on the road. It's
funny taking on Kansas. You're totally right. Kansas is the
darlings of week four and they're up to a great start,
and we'll get into this more. Their first three and
oh starts since two thousand nine, think about that, just
three and oh, since everybody's betting Kansas today. But the
(38:50):
thing is, if you just go online and look for
a preview for this game, it's just Kansas, Kansas, Kansas, Kansas, Kansas,
Jay Len Daniel quarterback, Kansas, Kansas. Oh, by the way,
they're playing Duke. That's it. That's all you get on
Duke going into this one. Duke's numbers haven't been bad,
like I mean it's Duke because they beat northwestern. I
mean you know they've they've got some guys that can
(39:11):
play the quarterback. I think it's a really is a
star Um, but it's college football. Is Fun. I Love
College football and, by the way, I am rooting for
Quinn Yours, even though he's got a stupid mullet. I
think that's awesome that he's in uniform already. You think
he's down against Bama, but he's already dressing. So I
(39:34):
thought it was gonna be a month. Yeah, I was
supposed to be four to six weeks and he's at
least dressing, so he's getting closer to being back on
the field here. Yeah, well, when you got arch Manning,
who they spend three hundred thousand dollars to get in
the building, better play every set your hands on. My
(39:54):
favorite story of the week is Mike Leach, the Mississippi
State head coach, highly, highly suspicious about that whole story.
They're rich. Well, I don't know about all of this.
I love his candidness. Whatever, whatever enters Mike Leach's brain,
he says aloud and I love that we get him
on the show. I would love to interview the Spicy
(40:16):
Pirate Mike Leach. We would talk about college football about
ten percent at the time, because Mike could be talking
about yeah, that's exactly right. All right. Coming up next,
major changes could be on the way in college football.
Are you in favor of it happening? It's Fox sports
radios countdown to kick off. Fox Sports radio has the
(40:40):
best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of
our shows at Fox sports radio DOT COM and within
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listen live. Oh wellcommit it is Fox sports radios countdown
to kickoff, presented by bet MGM. Just two hours until kickoffs.
Right around the Warner, get you, getting you all set up.
(41:02):
It will get into the matchups here and just the
second guys, but I wanted to throw something at you here.
I read something about College Football Games taking longer right now.
So on average, we go back nine years to games
on average took three hours seventeen minutes. This year we're
at three hours thirty two minutes, and so you get these.
(41:24):
You know, the suits are starting to talk about, hey,
how do we whittle that down? How do we get
it into a maybe a neater window where it's around
three fifteen, somewhere around there? And some of these ideas
I'd be okay with. Others I'm completely against. They've tinkered
and talked about the idea of winding the clock after
(41:45):
incomplete passes. It works sort of like first downs right
with a I hate it. Hate it because that changes
the game, that changes the essence of the game where
think about all these scenarios that are changed late in
a game where, let's say you're a team with the lead,
if it is, I don't know, third and seven, you're
(42:07):
up by ten points, you would normally, the way the
rules are right now, you'd run the ball and just
keep that clock moving. But if you're not really penalized
for an incomplete pass, why not just throw it? It's
only gonna cost you, I don't know, five to ten
seconds if it's incomplete, because the clock still winds like
it changes the game. I hate that idea. If you
got rid of stopping the clock after a first down
(42:30):
is gained, I'm okay with that. I wouldn't have an
issue with that, but I hate the idea of stopping
it after are starting it, after incomplete passes. I agree
with you because I think what it takes away is
the zero time outs left less than forty seconds end
of game goal line. We got four chances to score
for the win here, because we know that the deal
(42:53):
the drill is, hey, let's find an open receiver back
of the end zone and if he's not open, let's
throw it over his head so the defense can't get
to it. and We survived the down and we have
three more shots to win this one. There's so much
dramatics that are involved with the stoppage of time within
completions throughout the course of history. You know I mean.
(43:13):
Just think about some of the most stunning two minute
drives to win it that we've seen and the reliance,
because you only have one time out and it's a
minute ten left on the clock and you've got eight
yards to drive. The reliance on those incomplete passes to
stop the clock so you can catch your breath and
take a look at things is there. So yeah, I
I agree with you. I think that would change the
(43:33):
fabric of college football and football in general. How about
we just take away the stupid incomp the first down,
stop the clock. That's what I'm saying. That like you're
you're talking about seconds, you know, you know, pennies on
the dollar, so to say. You Shave ten seconds off
of one out of every four plays, all of a sudden,
after a hundred plays you've got your five minutes right there.
(43:54):
Then my math might be off. It's early, but you
get the point. Like I don't know if the math
lie end up on that one, but having burgers for breakfast,
man o man, I don't know. I was probably way
off on that, but you you, you get the point.
Like there, if you're looking for again to shave off
ten seconds out of every ten minutes of the game
(44:15):
and then after three hours, you know, you get your
five minutes or so then, yeah, that I think that
makes more sense to me than than incomplete passes. Because
you're right, not only would that change the fabric of strategy,
it would change the fabric of how totals are booked
and better, I mean total, different ball game. Because what
do we see in the NFL? Most totals are in
(44:37):
the low to mid forties, you know, maybe high forties.
In College football, a total in the forties is considered low.
That's Iowa, Iowa low. We'll get to that total in
a little bit. But sorry, I had to throw that
dig in there for I was Sam but to me
fifties is really the average total, high fifties into the sixties,
and now we're gonna, you know, maybe see that decrease
(44:57):
a lot. If, if those rules change, I'll give you.
How about, like we have players and coaches on the clock,
how about we start getting these officiating crews on the
clock with these replays? That's right. If it's not well,
that means you're not overturning it and stuff. All the
targeting rule, the review. Look, I've I've called three games
(45:18):
this season already and every single one of these games
there was a five minute review. I mean we're talking
about talking to me wrong, like, okay, five minutes, is
that really going to have a major impact? But if
you have multiple reviews during a half, sometimes a half
can take you up till close to two hours right there.
If you have four reviews in a game, that are
(45:39):
five minutes and that's you. And so I think the
same way. There's a play clock instituted for these players
and coaches, the officials. As soon as the whistles blowed,
a minute long clock starts and I'm sorry, if you know,
if you gotta get yourself fitting trim so you can
run over to the IPAD quicker, whatever it is you
got tottle your way across the field and get the
(46:01):
view of the play. I mean we need these decisions faster,
because that's one of the things where you'll throw to
a commercial break, you'll come back to the broadcast and sometimes,
you know these these these networks, they're looking at their
their watch and they're going, we need to throw to
another break. It's wild, man. I mean I let people
upstairs do it and stop with the referees having to
(46:22):
run all over the places, like why does the referee
on the field have to do the replay. That makes
no sense to me either. Yeah, you could have either
a guy in the booth or a central office, something
like they divided up her conference whatever. You could do
it a lot of different ways. But yeah, jobs, get
these guys new jobs and replay command center. I think
there's a big difference between using replay and just relying
(46:46):
on replay, and I'm seeing the ladder too often. You know,
let's let's just make sure over you don't have to
dot every eye and cross every t and time is
of the essence. You know, we would drive ourselves crazy.
I would love to see it be like tennis one day,
where their replays are awesome. It takes a few seconds
and they're like the ball was in. They make a call,
(47:09):
knowing that I'm gonna just let the play, you know,
happen and then we'll let replay short it out. Lat Yeah, yeah,
there's so many shoots first, ask questions later. And you
know what, and that sport. I think replay in general,
I mean this is broadening the conversation to something completely different,
but in general is is really just because of the subjective,
(47:29):
subjectivity of officiating. anyways, it's almost anti sport. I mean,
how many Bang Bang plays happen over the course of
the game where you go, Jeez, you know in the
in the moment, you know I made a bad decision
as a linebacker, you know I feel B gap and hey,
they popped the run. Sea got gotta give credit to him.
You know, whatever it is. You know, officiating works the
same way too. It's like, Hey, with my eyes I
(47:51):
saw him in bounds. Meanwhile he took a step and
he was six inches out of bounds. Listen the pay
him more, pay all officials more, and you've got a
higher quality candidate calling the Games. But but reliance on replay,
I just it's no good. Yeah, job with this topic.
(48:11):
It is good. I'll just add this where the replay
stuff stands out. But what's really causing these games to
lengthen is the passing element. Where passing? Yeah, and they're
completing more passes than ever. So you're moving the ball
down field and you're scoring more, which leads to more delay.
So no mates on first downs, two feet in. It'll
(48:34):
it'll breathe the game up a little bit. Maybe it
absolutely would, but I don't think stopping are starting the
clock after an incompletion is the way to do it.
Think about clocking the football. You couldn't even clock it.
You I would imagine there would have to be some
amendments for the two minute drill. Like if you can't
have that be the two minute trill, you can't clock
the football like that's just insanity. And to your point
(48:55):
about the passing game, I mean just think about this.
When you're running the football, okay, how how many yards?
If you're a tailback, you know maybe the widest you'll
receive the football is on a toss sweep right. So
your seven yards? Not probably not even five yards, closer
to the sideline from the center of the field or
from the Hashes. Like you're not getting to the sideline
(49:15):
on a lot of runs. So in the passing game,
even when the balls inbounds, you throw out, you throw
to the numbers, you throw outside the numbers. A lot
of those tackles are made out of bounds. A lot
of those receivers are stepping out of bounds again stopping
the clock. So it's a great point about the passing
offense really slowing down games too, because the incompletions, yeah,
but also just the fact that you're exploiting the part
of the field where these receivers and skill position players
(49:38):
are able to step out make a business decision not
take a hit, and that stops the clock as well.
It's Fox sports radio's countdown to kickoff, presented by bet MGM.
We'll get you all set for the matchups here in
about ten minutes. There's one other thing I wanna toss
out there. Where we're talking about potential major changes in
college football. This caught my attention. It was just sort
(50:00):
of an oh by the way story where after USC
and U C L A, they announced that they were
leaving for the big ten. ACC administrators had informal conversations
about a potential merger with the big twelve and the
pack twelve. And I read that about twenty times and
I was like, wait a minute, a potential merger of
(50:21):
three conferences was just informs. You want to talk about
amendments to the game. Blow Up. These conferences useless now, useless? Yeah, no, no,
they listen. I think you're right until you're wrong. I
think if you make it so that conference championships get
(50:41):
auto bids in a playoff system, then the conferences all
of a sudden have meaning in life. But in the
current model where we're just allowing uh, you know, a
group of of of paid, uh whatever you want to
call it, the efficients of the game, to step into
a board room or on a zoom link and make
(51:02):
decisions and then the white smoke billows from a chimney
and all of a sudden we have our answer. These
are our four best teams. You're absolutely right, conferences don't
matter right now, but I'm cure, very curious if we
do move on to a twelve UH team system in
the postseason and you get auto bids for conference championships
(51:23):
all of a sudden, you know, I mean you may
need multiple conferences. That system may come into play and
we always get back to betting. We bet on teams
to make the playoff, to win the to win the
you know, to win the whole who's the whole landscape
of how those bets are structured, book, the markets associated
with it, how it's priced. I mean it all, it
(51:46):
all trickles down. These are all very important decisions and
for people like me, I'm scouring the market trying to
find inefficiencies on a weekly basis with this stuff and
I have to change the way that I think about everything,
because every year. It's a new system, it's a new
version of what we're doing. Me With realignment, I like it.
I liken it to drinking. If there's some social drinking
(52:09):
in college football, little realignment, okay, fine. I don't want
them to be stumbling pass out drunk off of realignment,
and that's where we're headed right now. It's just I
guess the other thing is, yeah, you think about defining
the relationship. This happens a lot of times. Are we UH,
a couple? Are we just hanging out, like, what are
(52:30):
we doing over here? That's how I feel in college football.
I'm okay with some realignment, but I'm still thinking like where,
where are we, and where is this headed, because I
would just like to have an idea of where it's going.
Are We facebook official? Are you ring shopping? I don't,
I don't. But truly, moderation in life in general is
(52:58):
the key. I mean, I don't get get me wrong,
I mean there are times where if you, if you
pour me a few more than then I think I'm
ready for I'm still going to have at it, but
the deal is this. The deal is this like if
you if you allow no guardrails and you let this
just completely. I mean eventually college football will cannibalize itself,
you know. So at some point somebody's got to be
(53:20):
the adult in the room, and it may have to
be the networks. Like you may end up seeing Fox, ESPN,
you might see uh, NBC, the collection of college CBS.
They may have to come together and these executives may
have to dictate to college football, to the N C
double a, if there isn't even is such a thing
officiating over College Football Uh, in ten years, and they
(53:42):
may have to come to them and say, Hey, look,
this is what we want. Now, you guys amongst yourselves,
whether it's with N C double a officials or its
conference chairs or whoever, you figure out how it needs
to be done, but this is what we need. And then,
I I mean, goodness gracious, I mean the money will
start flowing from these networks back into the pockets of
(54:02):
these schools. I'd rather have the networks be conferences than
than the actual like the Fox conference, like, yeah, like
like that, because you're right. That's it's always and one
of my favorite movies of all time, all the president's men.
You know about the Nixon Watergate scandal. Follow the money
(54:25):
like that's where the money is. You know, they're the
ones paying all these conferences to put these Games on
TV every week, so that's where it should originate from.
You would think that makes sense to me as a
money I love the idea of swapping networks for conferences.
I'm just thinking of the arguments in my head of
like the SEC reign supreme, the big ten sticks. Like
(54:45):
you change that to Fox reign supreme. NBC Sucks. Yeah, Hey,
every time you make a wager at bet mgm, you
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(55:07):
mgm resorts. Okay, we've got rich ornberger, that Penn Stayed
All American. We've got jared Smith, lead betting analysts from
picks wise dot com. They're both Penn state grats. I'm Brian. No,
I have no penn state ties. I feel have to
apologize for that. A yes, alright. Coming up next we
dive back into the matchups. Big Ten matchup of the
(55:28):
day one of the sexy sec matchups of the day
that's coming up. It's Fox sports radio's count down to
kickoff presented by bet MGM. Can't wait. Welcome to the
biggest tailgate party in the nation. You're locked into Fox
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(55:50):
Bat Mgm, the King of sports books. Once again, here's
Brian no rich orn Berger and Jared Smith. Welcome back
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Code countdown for a special offer. That's code countdown in
(56:10):
the BET MGM APP. Let's do it. Big Ten matchup
of the day. Okay, we're looking at Michigan playing a
team that's UH better than what they've played. They're taken
on Maryland. Michigan is favored by seventeen points. Total is
sixty four at bet MGM. Michigan not exactly murderers row
(56:32):
so far. Colorado, state, Hawaii and Yukon against the Leah
Tunga La step up in competition for the wolverines today. Yeah,
and for Maryland, by the way, I mean smu Charlotte Buffalo.
(56:53):
I mean like both of these teams have not been
tested yet, so we'll see who can get the four
and O on the season. Here's the thing, Um, Mike
locksley's turps. They were four no and had this thing
absolutely hem tight and rolling last season or before heading
into conference play, and as soon as the big tent
schedule opened up they were drugged to the tune of
(57:18):
a laws at home to Iowa. Uh followed out up
with a sixties, six seventeen smash to the buck eyes.
So yeah, look, I mean am I am I buying
everything I'm seeing from Maryland right now, and tongue of Iloa,
who's been really nice. I mean to open the season.
They've been a very efficient offense, especially throwing the football.
(57:40):
Not Completely, I I need to see this game and
it needs to be a close game before I can
believe anything I'm seeing from Maryland. A couple of things here.
First of all, Michigan, apparently, is one of the most
bet on teams today. So there's your yeah, there's your
be careful line of the day, because you're right, everything
(58:01):
is kind of pointing in the direction of Michigan, but
when everybody's betting him, it just it sucks the value
out of that line. Now the Michigan offense. I think
it's vastly improved. Audition by subtraction. Josh Gaddis, we know
him well from his days of Penn State. He now
has the part. He was in Michigan, now he's at
Miami as the offensive coordinator. I love this offensive line
and I think it's the best compliment of weapons under
(58:23):
John Jim harball Um. You know you got coreham in
the backfield and bell, who's a fantastic receiver. J J
McCarthy is the real deal. How about this? Forty three
snaps so far this season. Zero negatively graded place. He's
fourth that of two seventy one quarterbacks according to pro
football focus. He is playing at an elite level. But
the defense finally, will be tested. You're right, Brian, bottom
(58:44):
tense strength. The schedule so far. Of those teams, a
hundred and twenty three average combined offensive efficiency. Yukon Colorado
state a wife. They hadn't faced murderers row. That is
a great way to put it. And they lost a
ton of starters. A JABO UM and Hodginson go to
the NFL. They are a little thin in that spot.
Their best linebacker, Hill Green, hasn't even played yet. And
(59:05):
there's Maryland defense, is pretty solid um playing a little
better than I think a lot of people thought, and
that's something to consider here too. But let's be honest,
when Mike locksley graduates up in competition, the results have
been disastrous. So far. In three years he has played
nine teams in the top twenty. Maryland is O and
(59:25):
nine in those games they've been outscored four sixty five
to one twelve. They have failed to cover the spread
by a combined two and five points. You, yeah, gross
right there. By the way. We'll dive into this a
little bit more, but to mention it right now, number
ten Arkansas against number twenty three, Texas A and m.
(59:47):
That is a great sec matchup. So you've got a
and M minus two at home. The total is fifty
one at bet mgm. Here's what I'm thinking, guys. If
you look at Texas A and M, they have had
a hard time scoring points. Like couldn't score against Appalachian State.
Scored enough against Miami to get the win. But to
me this is a see it before it happens scenario
(01:00:10):
where you might think, oh, fifty one that's a high total.
Like is it gonna get to that? I just think
of a and M against this Arkansas defense that has
really struggled against the past. They give up three thirty
five in the passing yards per game department. So I
think we're gonna get a little bit more offensive fireworks.
I like Arkansas's defense. I like Arkansass offense a lot,
(01:00:33):
so I think we're gonna see it take over fifty one.
What's your sense of this game here? This is uh,
this is actually one of those revenge games, right because
Texas A and M was ranked seventh in the country
last year heading into the game against sixteenth ranked Arkansas.
The aggies playoffs hopes were quickly dashed. Right razorbacks beat them.
It was a knockout of the top ten for good,
(01:00:56):
and and so was the season. And we know how
the backs feel about this game. We heard from the
head coach last week's pretty cool red to beat top ten.
He's texting recruits, he's tweeting about it. You know, it's uh,
it's it's one of these matchups where I think what
it boils down for me is the offensive defensive line
battle between the Arkansas's big pigs up front against a
(01:01:19):
n Ms Defensive Line which is inexperience but have unbelievable potential.
Look for this to be one of those just beat
him up up Front Games, fun game, neutral site, true,
neutral site Arkansas. You know Jerry's world. He's an alum.
There are plenty of razorback fans here, a and M
of course, being an in state game with with with
(01:01:40):
their fans. But Arkansas's defense does scare me a little
bit and that's your that's your point on this. Over,
UH Brian. Arkansas's defense the worst tackling unit in the SEC.
Blitz happy most sacks, but a hundred and fifth and
passing defense. So it's a very gun slingers mentality. We
talked about the gun slinger mentality on offense. On defense
(01:02:01):
it's I'm gonna get after you and if I don't
get to the quarterback, it's probably gonna be a touchdown
going the other direction. That usually breeds offense. Now for
a and M listen, I think this is a Jimbo
Fisher kind of game. He needs to show us that
he can run an offense effectively. I remember a few
years ago, remember he had like the papers were like
flying across the field with his game plan like the
(01:02:21):
loose leaf, like it hasn't been efficient or, you know,
very fun to watch for a and M's offense. Second
game with Max Johnson, I'm curious what kind of scheme
they run. Are they gonna kind of empty the tank
and let him throw the ball down the field with
that lefty that that sweet lefty throwing motion, or is
it gonna be uh, conservative and a phone booth? So
(01:02:42):
that's kind of what I'm when I'm leaning towards here.
I agree there there could be points in this game,
but K J Jefferson's got to show up against the
really good text saying Mt but there is a showcase
game for him too if he wants to play at
the next level. So I think there's a lot of
offensive potential in this game, but I don't know if
it's gonna be realized because there's been some slip ups
along the way with both of these teams. What's the
(01:03:03):
total again? What's the number? Yeah, yeah, I really yeah,
I could be going head to heading our picks. Oh
Oh boy. We haven't had that happen yet, where we've
done the rapid fire and one person has been on
the other side. I don't think. Yeah, I think this might.
Let Me Look at my rob get the Mannai's out
(01:03:25):
absolutely starts staring at Hellman's. That's right, you mentioned jared
a gun slinger's mentality. That's what we have on the
show with our Guy Isaac low and crown. He's not
looking to be conservative in a phone book over here.
You've taken away I low. You know, when it comes
to me, I talk first, ask questions later, or something
(01:03:48):
like that. You know what I mean. You know what
Albert bold still last night. He swung first and answered
questions later, because the St Louis Cardinal Slugger made Major
League history of dger Stadium and the cardinals eleven nothing
victory over the dodgers. He hit home run number six
nine and then later in the game took aim at
(01:04:09):
becoming just the fourth player in Major League history to
hit the seven hundred milestone. Here was John Rooney on
Cam oxwing and there goes left field, way back. That's
home run number seven hundred. Two roles hit's a three
run homer and he hit six at dodger stadium. Who
(01:04:32):
holds joining Babe Ruth Henry, Aaron and Barry Bonds in
the seven hundred home run club and when you think
about it, there's a interesting connection to history. So we've
got dusty Baker, his former manager, the manager of the
(01:04:57):
Houston Astro, still in baseball. Dusty Baker was involved in
Major League baseball when poults hit his seven hundredth home run,
when Barry bonds hit his seven hundredth home run and
when Hank Aaron hit his seven hundredth home run, because
Hank Aaron was actually dusty Baker's teammate with the Atlanta braves.
He was on deck, by the way, when he passed
Babe Ruth. Speaking of milestone home runs, and the Chase
(01:05:20):
Aaron judge remained at sixty home runs. He went one
for four with a single, and the Yankees five four
victory over the red sox. The Yankees magic number to
clinch the Al East, by the way, is five. Mets
got a grand slam from Edwardo Escobar one in Oakland,
nine to two, so they lead the NL East by
two and a half now, after Atlanta lost at Philadelphia
Nine to one. College football on Friday night, you tap
(01:05:43):
was a thirteen and a a half point underdog according to
bet mgm. They wound up winning out right over Boise
state by two touchdowns, seven to ten. And Schmidt happened
for Syracuse. Placekicker Andre Schmidt kicked five field goals, including
the game winner, with one fourteen to play, as they
in Virginia, twenty two to twenty. FELLAS, all yours. Thank you.
(01:06:04):
I Love Fox sports radios. Countdown to kickoff, presented by
Bet Mgm, just steaming ahead. Less than an hour and
a half before a kickoff. Let's dive into this. Follow
the money, real good money. All right, we want to
welcome in Shamus mcghee, team lead of sports trading at
Ben M Bet MGM, joins US here on countdown to kickoff.
(01:06:25):
You know, no no pressure here, Shamus, but you're watching
the line movement. You're seeing the bets come in. How
do we get rich today betting on college football? What's
the play? All? Thanks for having me back, guys. I
mean I want to get rich. I mean just every
under in Iowa game is right, even today, with the
(01:06:46):
total being like ten. I don't think I've seen a
total slow in my life. Really don't. Down to thirty
three and a half. Now we're hanging thirty three and
a half, I mean the other but the public seems
to do to get riches. I mean just take Alabama
Georgia first quarter. I mean I was I was in
the office last week screaming at Shane Biemer for his
(01:07:09):
for his I guess. I don't think he wanted to
compete in that game. You know what the US last week.
So we're gonna need first quarter covers for sure. You know,
we a lot of times, and I viewed this too,
because I didn't know what I was talking about or doing.
You know, when I first started out gambling and I,
you know, started to learn and started to talk to
(01:07:29):
some of you find folks on on a regular basis
and I started to see things from the other side
of the counter. You get into these games just as
much as the betters do because you have as much
liability on the line on the other side most days
as we do. So your risk rooms at times look
a lot like our living rooms. It walked me through
with those experiences. Are like when you have these huge bets,
(01:07:51):
six figure bets, coming in on one side and you're
rooting for the other side. You're rooting for those guys
to lose. Yeah, it can get. You can get pretty,
pretty testing here when the games around, and you know
we got a lot of liability on one line. You
just want to I just want to see the result
go through. But you know, in our business, you know
they when when the public wins, they get more money
(01:08:13):
to spend. There there's more games on, especially the new
and slate, like last week for example, like we got
crushed on South Carolina and Oklahoma and like for those
two particular games. But you know, there's a whole slate
of college football left. So you know we're we're involved
in every game. You know everyone, all the betters, you
know they're they're involved, maybe three or four, maybe for
(01:08:33):
some guys as high as like n like we're involved
in every game. So it's well, you get Indod like
the big games with with more action. Uh, it is
important to remember, you know, there are other games that
we got to look at that could swing our way too.
We talked about the point total on that Iowa game.
Just a stinker. I don't even know what to do
with that number. But are there any lines or totals
(01:08:55):
out there that you're looking at that just I mean
just raising eyebrow a little bit a couple of weeks
ago I gave you guys in carnate word and nailed
nailed it. Colorado state is a home dog to Sacramento.
The Rams. What are they? The Hornets? I think so.
(01:09:20):
It's uh so that definitely popped out to me. But
you know, there's wow. I was state home favorite against
the ranked Baylor team. I mean whenever you get an
unranked favorite against a ranked team, I think that certainly
pops out to you. He Shamus McGee, team lead of
sports trading at bet MGM, joining us here on countdown
to kick off. I love what jared was asking you
(01:09:42):
in terms of your rooting interest, meaning the money's pouring
in on one team. Who are you at Bet Mgm
Rooting for the most today? Well, it's all the big
teams have a lot of money coming on them. Clemson
is a big public team today for US USC A
ton of USC bets have been coming in pretty much
(01:10:03):
every week. And Kansas, I mean it's Kansas is they
just legalized sports betting in the state and uh, I
was pretty I was pretty surprised with actually like how much,
like how much action we're seeing coming out of there.
You know, it's it's a sold out game in Lawrence
for like the first time in a while and it's
a ton of money coming in on the Jayhawks today.
(01:10:25):
So Duke's definitely gonna be a need for us as well,
and I think and Maryland is the biggest need that
we have today. Maryland plus seventeen. Yeah, we just talked
about that one and I'm seeing a lot of fellow
sports book traders pop up on my timeline saying Michigan
is the public bet today. So that's definitely what I'm
staying away from. Oregon State, USC. I got a couple
(01:10:48):
of questions about this line. It was in the seven
range early in the week and obviously people are betting USC.
They've looked fantastic, but the line is moving in the
other direction. Shamus, we talked about the reverse line movement
where people bet one side but the line moves against
that side. Are we seeing that tonight with the beavers? Certainly.
(01:11:09):
I mean we had this opened around seven and we
were sitting at six flat right now. It's been sharp action,
definitely on the on Oregon State, but we keep seeing
USC money come across our tip. So we're still hanging
six because until we start seeing some real heavy, sharp action.
Then we'll probably move off that, but it's one way
(01:11:30):
traffic on USC for us at Bet Mgm, handicapping is
really difficult when you're starting a season because it's all
unknown quantities. But I have a feeling it's similar when
you get the conference play, because we're just talking about this.
You could have two undefeated but as soon as they
play in conference just everything's ratcheted up and it feels different.
(01:11:52):
So is this a time where it's difficult to place
these totals and spreads because again, unknown Quam kiddies exactly
like you have? You have some like Minnesota's has been
hanging crazy numbers like all to start the season, for example,
and they go in too Michigan State and it's like
do you want to hang a total that high when
(01:12:13):
you know probably not going to be like as some
of their other games to start the year? It's in
college football totals in general are are always really sharp.
They'll always move at a bunch of points in different directions.
So I'd say it's definitely when conference place starts. Definitely
one example like that. You know, shame. It's always good
to talk to you man. Thanks for joining us. This morning.
On a personal note, any games like, forget the betting
(01:12:36):
stuff that you're just interested in. As a college football
fan today, born and raised New Jersey, I'm looking at piscataway.
Oh boy, the game of the year. I love it.
I love it absolutely. Savings. Well, thanks, thanks for your time.
Always great stuff with you. Thanks, guys. Thank you. There
(01:12:56):
is Shamus mcghee, team lead of sports trading at MGM man. Yeah,
the Scarlet Knights could be uh, I can't get my
eyes off this Colorado State Sacramento game. Now he brought
Colorado state's a whole doctic Sacramento. What is happening? I
just love when you have to go deep in your
(01:13:17):
own playbook of naming the nickname where you're like Oh, yeah, oh, yeah, yeah, yeah,
I saw them live past five years. But Dude, yeah,
one of those FCS teams that are sneaky good against
the mountain west competition. This is rush up on my
west coast FCS rat. You gotta sit down have a
(01:13:38):
POW wow about these teams, but you gotta get me
on board. Man, what's incarnate word? Because they pulled off
the upset that was I mean. And listen, if Shamus
pulls this one off today in Sacramento. Pull you know,
wins it Colorado State. We need to crown him King mcghee, yeah, king,
I mean impressive stuff, Septer. So we could just point
(01:14:01):
out stuff. All right. So we are about an hour
and twenty minutes away from kickoff. We've got rich ornberger
with us, Penn State, at all American. We've got Jared Smith, Lee,
betting analysts from picks wise dot com. I'm Brian No.
We're gonna look at dogs. Coming up next. You don't
even have to be betting on these games. It's always fun.
I swear. Nothing causes you to stick out your chest
(01:14:22):
more than correctly picking an underdog, and there are some
interesting spots here today. There are some home dogs that
are unranked facing ranked teams. We'll go through who we
like the most. Coming up, it's Fox sports radios count
down to kickoff, presented by bet MGM. Kickoffs are coming, sue,
(01:14:46):
and we're leading you up to that. This is Fox
sports radios countdown to kickoffs, presented by Bett MGM, the
kick of sports books. Once again, here's Brian No, rich
hornberger and Char it's it's Fox sports radio's countdown to
(01:15:08):
kickoff presented by Bet Mgm. Time from one of my
favorite points of the show. Let's do this. The Dogs Barks,
Oh yes, that's right, or a fifty dollar bonus. By
signing into bet MGM and clicking on for a friend,
to invite a friend, and just a few simple steps,
both you and your friend will receive a fifty dollar bonus.
(01:15:30):
Bet Mgm, the King of Sports Books, the King of parlays.
The dogs are barking. I love the DMX sounder right
there and trying to find an underdog. Let me throw
this at you, guys. So we've got four home dogs
that are unranked facing ranked teams. Okay, so of these four,
(01:15:50):
which do you like the most? I'M gonna put Arizona
State to the side because the line keeps climbing. With utahs,
I don't know if you want to go with The
sun devils, with the interim Ed coach. Let's sixteen and
a half. So we've got the beefs plus six against
number seven USC we've got the COUGS, Washington state, plus
six and a half against Oregon, and we've got Texas
(01:16:15):
tech plus seven against Texas. So I'm gonna Start with you, rich,
because I've been paying attention to your parlay platter over here, Jared.
I think I know where you're going. or where are
you going with that rich? Do you like the Beeves,
do you like the cougars, or do you like Texas
tech the most? In an underdog role? I love offense.
I'm an offensive lineman. Uh You know, to throw the ball,
(01:16:38):
run the ball, it doesn't matter me. Let's just get
let's get some points on the board. Let's feel good
about ourselves. But so do the beeves and so do
the Trojans, and every time I look at this line
I just think it's fool's gold. If you're thinking the
trojans are gonna easily cover on the road again, we're
talking about a pack twelve match up here. We're talking
(01:16:59):
about a U Us Hee Trojan's defense that's still not
been tested and win tested not looking so great. I
don't know, man. I like I like the BEAVER's quarterback.
I like I like what I've seen from from this
program in terms of their offense. Give me, give me
the Beavers, man, I'm gonna go. I like what you're saying, jared.
(01:17:25):
With Texas Tech Plus Seven against number twenty two, Texas,
I'M gonna swing a little bit differently. I'm going cooks today.
I'm going coogs because plus half. I don't love it,
but I like it. I'm looking at Oregon. That was
an emotional win last week. They were fantastic. Bo Nick's
combined for five touchdowns against B Y U. I just
(01:17:45):
don't know if they reached that same level. Could be
an emotional letdown for the ducks this week. So I'll
go coogs myself in this. You know, it's funny, guys.
The second the dogs are barking segments started. Mike Dog
woke up from his morning slumber and stuffed in the
ending his way around the apartment. Now he might just
have to use the bathroom. But I don't think that's
(01:18:05):
a coincidence. The dogs are barking today and I think
when you look at this Texas Tech Game Now, I'm fact,
the quarterback situation could change here and that's it's a
later game. We don't know. You know, we won't know until.
I think it's a three thirty eastern game. So we
won't know really WHO's under center until well after this
show ends and well after my bead on Texas text
(01:18:27):
already locked in. I'm going to assume it's Hudson car
just because I would be surprised if they pushed yours
back in his freshman season after, you know, suffering a
pretty significant injury that was supposed to keep him out
for a month and it's only been two weeks. But
that being said, Card hasn't been bad, so I don't
think it's a bad spot for him to, you know,
(01:18:48):
continue to get experience. But this is a very different
like they're facing a really good team this week and
they're facing a defense that I think is infinitely better
than what they saw last week against U T S A,
and you saw against Alabama. They kind of struggled in
those spots. I think ut Texas TEX defense obviously doesn't
resemble Alabama, but there at least proficient up front to
(01:19:11):
put some pressure and to shut down the running game
with Robinson to put card in some really tough spots.
Now Texas Tech on offense. That's a different story. Are
they gonna have enough horses to stay in this game?
I think they will, but I like getting seven in
the hook and you can get that hook out there.
Right now. I'm seeing it in the market, so I
think Texas Tech keeps this game close. Today again Texas
home underdog. Basically their super bowl, and I'm curious what
(01:19:34):
the quarterback situation is for to be sure to follow
bet mgm across all socials at Bet Mgm. It's a
random nugget here, but Oregon is gonna look smooth in
their icy whites today. I see whites didn't fell farewell
last night. You had Virginia losing in their I C whites.
You had Nevada get wrecked by air force in their
(01:19:56):
I C whites and Boise state terrible loss at U
Teh Boise state in their I see whites. I don't
I don't know. Just the week off icy whites not
working out? Could be could be right there. But the
ducks are gonna look smooth. They're gonna look smooth in
those ICS, you know, but more than their nightmare green
last week. Alright. Coming up next, we dive back into
(01:20:19):
the biggest matchups of the day. Fox Sports radio has
the best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all
of our shows at Fox sports radio DOT COM and
within the I heart radio APP, Search F S R
to listen live. Oh do you guys realize we're less
than an hour away from kickoff. Over here, less than
(01:20:39):
an hour away. And how about one of these early matchups?
Over here? We've got clemson against wake forest, number five
against number twenty one. It's a seven a half point spread.
Clemson favorite over at bed MGM and UH, we've talked
about this matchup before. I think it's a bad it's
a bad we say styles make fights in boxing. This
(01:21:00):
is not a good fight for wake forest. The Slow
Mesh meets a dominant defensive line. I don't love Clemson's offense,
but I just think wake force gonna have a lot
of problems here today. Guys. Yeah, not in love with
Clemson's offense either, but their defense has been staggering. I
mean they they have some real power up front and
(01:21:23):
they get a boost with breeze back in the lineup
for them. I think wake forest keeps it close, though,
because again, once you get in conference and especially when
you're facing a team on the road, and as as
as wake forest continues to to evolve and and and
Polish this offense over the years, I'm impressed at how
(01:21:44):
tough of an out they've become, and especially when they're
hosting teams in their own conference, in their own division
or side of the conference. So I'm looking. I'm looking
to see Clemson win this one. But but I like
I like what wakes done. I think they keep a
close m big step up in class for wakes offense
this week. I mean they had they were getting pushed
(01:22:05):
around by Liberty. That scares me. So here you go.
Here's some here's some nerd numbers on the Liberty Weight Game.
Last week of wakes runs were stuffed by liberties defensive line. Wow,
eighteen percent rushing success. Right point, four yards before first contact.
(01:22:29):
That's liberty point for what are we gonna see today
against Clemson's defensive line? Now you're right, Brian. The clemson
offense is where I struggle with laying points on the road.
But I give Dj a little credit. Touchdown, a interception
ratio improving. He dropped some lbs in the offseason. He's
(01:22:49):
running a little more. And the one thing about Dabbo
and this offense that is a little more intriguing this
year there is a legit backup quarterback Hind Dj. So
it sounds bad, but I don't think that. But really cares?
Hey call the running plays if he dj gets hurt,
we got another guy that can step right in and play.
So but that aggression, that that freedom, not worrying who's
(01:23:12):
behind on the depth chart, maybe even excited about the
number two quarterback on the depth chart, I think gives
Clemson a little more to their offense. And this weak
defense is is really bad Um, and that's, to me,
the part that I think clemson should be more aggressive today,
knowing that they're going up against the defense that's gonna
Struggle to stop them. But Man, I I don't like
(01:23:34):
what I've seen from Sam Hartman. He looks like he's
nursing that injury a little bit lower leg, had surgery,
only his third game back and now he faces maybe
Georgia today. So this is a very tough matchup, I think,
for wake force and I also think jared. It's something
that Dj Ui, as I call him, D he could
(01:23:55):
be more aggressive himself because he knows Kad Klubnick is
nipping at his heels over there. So he might be
more aggressive looking to run the football as well. And
I also think, I would add this like we talked
to Shamus McGee from bet MGM and it's a big,
big public play going with Clemson and it really is.
This has yeah, I've written all over it, laying seven
(01:24:18):
and a half on the road. But I'd say this
jared and rich also, I think you can fall into
a trap of like, Oh, I don't want to be
a Sucker, I don't want to side with the public
in this spot. I'll side with the public and I'll
look like a square if I'm not right, but I
think it's the right play. So I think that you
shouldn't guard against Oh, I don't want to look like
(01:24:39):
a square if I'm wrong, so I'm gonna bet the
other way. If you think the square side is the
right side, bet the square side. Yeah, yeah, I wouldn't. No, no,
I was gonna say I I wouldn't be I wouldn't
be pushed off of that because of because of any
sort of ego. I here. Here's where here's where I'm
at with Clemson's D versus wakes offense, is they do
(01:25:02):
have some issues. Um, they do have a couple of
safeties who are banged up. They got a corner who's
banged up, you know, and when you have issues in
terms of injury on the outside and you're playing against
a team that's gonna spread you wide open and just
find the mismatches. Yeah, even what you said is true.
I don't think Sam Hartman looks necessarily himself yet, but
(01:25:27):
you can exploit matchups, especially when the twos come in.
And so I I like the spot for wake I.
I don't like this spot for Clemson. I think they
still survive in advance. You know, I think this is
a win, uh, for Dabbo and the Tigers, but it's
just one of those Gotcha Games where I think this
could be a war through the first half before we
(01:25:50):
start seeing separation. The one thing I'll add to Brian
your point about what we're talking about with the square
versus sharp mentality. The this the sharps lose the time too.
So I think to base and I've trust me, I've
I'm an over analyzer, you know, toxic over analyzer. Uh,
(01:26:12):
you're you're thinking about a game. Which side do I like?
And then you see someone tweet out, oh, everyone's betting
this side and it it immediately pushes you away. But
in reality that shouldn't be the end all be all
to your handicap. You should look at each game objectively.
Now I'm okay with you targeting games that are opposite
(01:26:32):
of the public. But then you should be diving into
the matchups after that and to make sure that those matchups,
the stats, the trends, whatever, back up the fact that
you are fading. Like people who just say I'm just
gonna fade the public. I mean, sure, that's okay, it's
it's your money, do whatever you want, but I think
you need to take it a step further and you
need to incorporate the matchups into every single game. You
(01:26:56):
Bet blind tailing any trend or any kind of fade
the public mentality usually puts you in the poorhouse at
the end of the rainbow, because if you're not doing
it every single time to a fall, you're not capturing
the full weight of that trend. And it's hard to
be that consistent because we missed weeks. We we only
(01:27:16):
bet this many games. So I think the fade the
public trend is not worth what a lot of you know,
social media clout makes it up to be. It's Fox
sports radios countdown to kickoff, presented by bet MGM. Okay,
let's go to another tasty matchup over here, twenty ranked
Florida against number seventeen Tennessee both well, Tennessee's three. You know,
(01:27:40):
uh Florida dropped that game to Kentucky. They didn't look
great last week against South Florida and thus you have
Tennessee favored by eleven at bet MGM. I just think
it's too much. Fellas I know, Hendon Hooker has been fantastic.
We're looking for Anthony Richardson's first touchdown pass of the
season for Florida. Has got four interceptions, but he is
(01:28:02):
a capable first round NFL talent and I know this
is his first road game. This is Clemson's first road game,
I'm sorry, Florida's first road game of the season. That
doesn't make me feel great. But with eleven points, I
think this is a classic. You gotta see it before
it happens. Line and Tennessee. They have surprised some people.
(01:28:22):
They've done better at this stage than in many recent
years Um and I think they're overvalued because of that,
where they smacked around a couple of MAC teams and
they barely beat Pitt. I just think they're overvalued at
this stage and I think I think you got a
live dog here today in Florida, especially plus eleven. That's
just a ton of points in this match. The spread
(01:28:43):
makes me nervous. It's it's just one of those games
where it all comes down to Anthony Richardson. In my mind,
it's just which one? Are we gonna GET THE GAME
ONE UTAH utes performance? Are we gonna see what he
did against Kentucky and USF because, as it was pointed
out earlier, and I believe it was by you, jared,
he's ranked so low amongst his peers in quarterback rankings
(01:29:08):
in the past two weeks that it really does feel
like Jacklin hide and maybe he's one of those players
that needs the moment, he needs the big lights, he
needs a ranked opponent, he needs, uh something something like
this to get the juice is flowing. But I don't know.
I mean he's thrown some bad balls this season and
(01:29:29):
got away with it. I mean some of them haven't.
Haven't turned out well for the GATORS, but he he can.
He'll throw it to the defense. He will. It's just
a matter of whether or not they come down with it.
If it turns into that sort of game, especially in
the first half, where they're leaning on his arm to
get things done, I think then yeah, okay, tennis, he
might be able to crack this one wide open, but
(01:29:50):
I can't trust that number. That is that is a
lot of points. It is Um I think you the
crux of this handicap hind of center, right rich it's
all Anthony Richardson and the passing grades. A hundred and
thirty four out of a hundred and thirty seven qualifying quarterbacks.
It's it's not good. I mean this is a guy
(01:30:10):
again that, after week one, was being build for the
heisman trophy. You can't even put him in that stratosphere
based off of the numbers that I'm looking at now.
The one thing that is intriguing here with that number.
Let's game script this out. Tennessee likes to start fast.
I think they've scored the most first half points in
(01:30:32):
the country. I might be wrong about that, but they're
up there. They run the very fast tempo eight plays
per game. Josh hypel likes to pick them up and
put them down. But I think if you game script
this out where Tennessee starts fast and you put Florida
in a tough have to come from behind mode, well
then it's even more on Richardson's arm and it's even
(01:30:53):
more on billy napier to make the right adjustments, and
I mentioned this is the top of the show. Also,
the gators haven't scored a point in the third core
r this year. That has to change today and that
is something that scares me. Now, on the other side
of the ball, I'm also a little bit concerned about
the gators defense. This is a gators defense that allowed
two six rushing yards to south Florida last week. Over
(01:31:15):
fifty of those runs gained at least five yards. So
the recipe here could definitely breed a blowout. If Tennessee
starts fast and then Richardson's forced to throw, they can't
run the ball there in third and long and then
disaster strikes and Tennessee just continues to stretch the lead.
(01:31:36):
That is the recipe for the balls covering this game. Hey,
I hear you. I just feel I've got more outs
with Florida. I just feel like like, even if they're
down by let's say they're down by three touchdowns, we're
still alive plus eleven, like down by three touchdowns, catching
that many points in the college from that, I agree
(01:31:58):
with yeah, that's a lie and I just think this.
I wouldn't bet on Florida because they've won sixteen to
the last seventeen matchups in this series. But it makes
me feel better a bit when I'm betting Florida plus
eleven that they've won outright sixteen to the last seventeen,
you know, so to keep it within ten. Yeah, I'm
(01:32:18):
going gators today. Da. No, no, no, go gators right.
Sometimes I wish I was a gators fan because of
that that Chan over there. But Jesus, come on, I
know it's like I'm I'm totally fine, totally fine with
touchdown Jesus, good, with t j C. Someone was joking
around that it was field gold Jesus. Now in Iowa
(01:32:42):
it's safety Jesus. By the way, real fast. What do
you think? Yeah, the Iowa total today thirty three and
a half. Iwa. Which makes you sweat more? Betting the
over or under on that? Don't bet either. Stay away. Yeah,
(01:33:03):
for the I mean I think honestly, and this sounds
bizarre to say, with such a low total, but I think.
I think betting the over would make me more nervous.
We'll get into I have numbers on totals that low
and when we get trendy later I will reveal which
(01:33:24):
side actually has been more profitable when the total is
absurdly low, ludicrously low. For the alliteration friends out there,
very much looking forward to that. Hey be sure to
check out the new look and features in the bet
MGM APP. It's fast and easy access to the sports
you love, whether it's live betting, the daily lions boost
or the cash out feature, and new users can use
(01:33:46):
the code countdown for a special offer. That's code countdown
in the BET MGM APP. All right, we've got rich
Orin Burger that Penn stayed all American with us today.
We've got jared Smith, lead betting analyst from picks wise
Dot Com. I'm Brian know and, by the way, I
do love dirt on my boots. Is it? What is it? Iowa,
(01:34:06):
Sam our technical producer. Is it? It's party. Is His
name right, John Party, and we're having a party right now.
Dirt on my boots is a fantastic song. It's a
great song. O. I love that songs, a great song. Alright.
Coming up next, we're nearing kickoff, only forty five minutes away.
We've got the pack twelve matchup of the day and
(01:34:27):
man it is a good one. Lots of action on
this game. We'll dive in. Coming up it's Fox sports
radio's countdown to kickoff, presented by bet MGM. Welcome to
the biggest tailgate party in the nation. You're locked into
Fox sports radio's countdown to kickoff touchdown, and it's presented
by Bet Mgm, the King of sports books. Once again,
(01:34:52):
here's Brian No rich hornberger and Jared Smith. Welcome back
to Fox sports radios countdown to kick off presented by
bet MGM. New Users, download the BET MGM APP Today
and Use Code countdown for a special offer. That's code
countdown and the BET MGM APP. Let's do it. Back twelve,
(01:35:13):
matchup of the Jay Oh it is a tasty matchup.
Over here, the number seven ranked USC Trojans on the
Road Against Oregon State. Oregon state getting six points. Over
here the total of seventy and a half at bet MGM.
It's a lot of respect for USC's offense, not all
(01:35:33):
lot of respect for USC's defense, and deservedly so. They're
the big headlines earlier in the week, so Caesar Sports Book.
It opened at thirteen and a half. USC was favored
and the bets came pouring in. Within thirty minutes it
dropped to minus nine. So interesting development over there. The
(01:35:54):
books have had different lines throughout the week, but now
it settles right around six, as USC has favored on
the road. How about Jonathan Smith man? He is a
live dog over here. The beavers have won five of
the past seven games as a home dog and this
would be a mammoth win for the beaves if he's
(01:36:15):
able to pull it off against USC Today. Yeah, this
would be. There's no question about it. Look, you know,
and you look at a quarterback like chance Nolan, who
isn't concerned with keeping the ball underneath. This is uh,
he'll take chances, aptly named, because right now he's one
of the leaders in the nation in yards per play.
(01:36:38):
He pumps the rock down the field and IT feels
like the beavers are gonna be airborne from the jump.
So yeah, I don't I don't blame the public for
pounding this line all the way down to what is it,
five and a half right now. Favored the trojans over
the beavers on the road. This is this is going
to be UH. It feels like an offensive onslaught. I
(01:36:59):
can't wait watch this one, but I definitely think that
at very least they'll be able to keep it close
and and maybe again. You know, we we started the
show talking about how things can be a little bit
if he once you get the conference play in terms
of protecting leads. This point total has me suspicious as well.
(01:37:21):
I'm just gonna put that out there. Yeah, maybe that's
a tease for rapid fire later. All right, do you
think standing? Do you think stand out to me here? Um,
first things first, I actually do have the pack twelfth
network in my apartment. You do feel like I'm one
of few will be able to watch this game tonight,
(01:37:43):
but that's neither here nor there. You're a right chance Nolan.
How about this? And say what you want about pro football,
focus on how they grade their quarterbacks. I know the
stats might tell a different story. Chance Nolan is grating
out higher than Caleb Williams so far this season. That's
a lot of people probably would have expected that. Williams
(01:38:06):
actually is kind of trending down. Completion percentage has decreased
in all three games, starting with a really good performance
and it's kind of ticked down in the prior to
just seven point seven yards perrottempt against fresident state. That's
not gonna get it done tonight. So there's a couple
of chinks in the armor, I think for Caleb, and
again he's been fantastic. This offense looks like they have
(01:38:28):
rallied around their new leader, Lincoln Riley, and I think
there's a lot of upside. But there's also some holes
to be poked into this offense a little bit. And
I know they went on the road. They did it
against Stanford, but this is gonna be a really tough
environment in core ballast tonight and it is a place
that USC has historically struggled in. I know not this
USC team, but ranked USC teams have lost three straight
(01:38:51):
at Oregon State. So we'll see what the VIBE is
tonight with this Caleb Williams lead offense, if they are
as Polo as they've been in prior weeks, because if
they aren't, I think there are some opportunities for this
Oregon state offense to make hay against a very, very
poor USC defense. How about this? The last six Fresno
(01:39:14):
state drives a couple of weeks ago all went into
USC territory. Four of them went inside the forty and
they scored a grand total of seven points, four turnovers,
missed field goal and just one touchdown. That is fortunate,
to say the least. If that movement of the football continues,
I think the turnover luck eventually will run out for
(01:39:35):
the trojans and there's going to be a game where
Caleb Williams gets sacked a bunch of times and the
USC defense just gets absolutely pummeled. Maybe it's tonight. I'm
hoping it's tonight, but I really like Oregan state in
this and that's on top of Jareda backup quarterback for
fres yes, half of those drives were the backup quarterback,
four of the six actually. Yeah, and another stat I
(01:39:56):
like for the Beeves in their favor. So they've scored
touchdown on twelve of their fourteen red zone trips and
they haven't beaten up on the sisters of the poor here.
They've beaten Boise state, Fresno State. So scoring touchdowns in
the red zone twelve or fourteen trips. I like that
in terms of how it fits against USC and their defense.
(01:40:18):
So everything that you were just talking about last week, jared.
Maybe USC's defense isn't as successful tonight against the beeves.
Once the beaves are in the red zone. Something to
keep your eye on for sure. Looking for old line too, rich,
I know you're a big fan of talking old lines. UH,
three point two yards per line ry. Really solid. Fenwick
and Martinez, you know, not gonna game break, you five
(01:40:41):
star athlete kind of guys, but really solid. No, the
scheme and I think chance Nolan, this game's rests on
his shoulders. There's going to be third and laws. He's
going to have to make throws, Luke musgrade being out.
He's one of the better tight ends in the country.
That I don't love that. The physicality Upfront, I think
for organ state can be a factor here, but they
brought back three starters on the old line and they're
(01:41:02):
getting movement and they're getting movement. As you said, Brian,
it gets decent at least you know formidable FBS teams,
not the bottom feeders. So I'm fascinated to see how
this one plays out there. I think this is my
favorite game of the day, I really do. I agree
with you and I think you know for for anybody
who's a college football fan, especially in its current day,
(01:41:22):
expecting a lot of offense and just sort of a
freewheeling approach, especially in the first half. I think this
is right up your alley. I mean this is going
to be too offenses who are going to try to
just absolutely knocked the score out of the park today.
I don't know if they're going to be able to
sustain that second half, adjustments being what they are, and,
like I said, if USC is up at the half,
(01:41:44):
potentially uh an opportunity to turn it a bit more
conservative and start milking the clock a little bit in
the second half to just survive in advance, to escape
the road, uh, the road, uh, with a victory. I I.
I'm pumped, though. I think that this could be one
of those instant classics like this could be one of
(01:42:06):
those just slugfests all the way to the final whistle.
By the way, total, by the way, nugget over here,
props to you, rich crack research over here. We were
talking about some FCS teams that have either pulled off
an upset or our favorite today. So we've got Sacramento State.
They're favored by three points on the road against Colorado
State today. Sacramento State Hornets, and then incarnate word. You
(01:42:31):
were checking this out, rich cardinals. Cardinals hoping for something
exotic over there. They pulled off the upset against Nevada recently.
Right so at the incarnate word, cardinals, if you're scoring
at home right there. Hey, we're scoring at home all
the time when it comes to Isaac Loewan Krawn. He's
got the latest. What's going on? I really got the
(01:42:53):
latest because we have some breaking NFL news that has
just come down. The agent for Buffalo Bill's Safety Micah High,
just tweeted that hide will be put on season ending
injured reserve today due to his recent neck injury. His
agent adds, fortunately, we expect a healthy return for number
twenty three, in three, unquote. But again, the agent for
(01:43:17):
Buffalo Bill's Safety Micah Hide, just tweeting that he will
be put on season ending injured reserve today. Meanwhile, multiple
NFL owners have told The Washington Post in recent days
that they believe serious consideration may be given to attempting
to oust Washington Commander's owner Daniel Snyder from the league's
ownership ranks, either by convincing him to sell his franchise
(01:43:40):
or by voting to remove him. Snyder, of course, facing
a congressional investigation and a separate league commissioned investigation in
the allegations of misconduct. One owner told the post quote,
he needs to sell. Some of US need to go
to him and tell him that he needs to sell.
I think there will be a movement. We need to
get twenty four votes, unquote. Baseball. This morning the Atlanta
(01:44:04):
Braves placed rookie pitcher Spencer strider on the fifteen day
injured list with a stream left oblique muscle. Strider this
season eleven and five with a two point six, seven
e r a. and last night we had baseball history.
Made a swing and there goes left field, way back.
That's home run number seven. Two Rolls. It's a three
(01:44:25):
run homer and he hit six at dodger stadium. John Rooney,
the call on K M O X is Albert Pooholtz
in the cardinals eleven nothing. Victory over the dodgers joins
Babe Ruth, Henry Aaron and Barry Bonds in the seven
hundred home run club. But the bigger story than all
of that combined. Jared, did you just announce that you
(01:44:47):
actually get packed twelve network? Oh Man, I live. If
you can make it to vegas tonight, feel free. I'm
on my way. I live ten miles from the Rose
Bowl and I cannot watch are U C L A
football game, but at least I can watch that Wisconsin
Michigan state hockey matchup. Back to you. Are you taking
(01:45:10):
the over in that one? I'm not taking hello. Are
you taking the over and that you're gonna BE WATCHING IT? Yet?
Which one? The Wisconsin Michigan State Game? I'd have to
analyze and breakdown Michigan State's power play, I suppose. Yeah, yeah,
climb all over the analytics on that one. It's Fox
sports radios. Count Down to kick off, presented by bet MGM.
(01:45:31):
For sure to follow bet mgm across all socials at
Bet Mgm. Let's dive into this. Oh Yeah, let's get trendy. Alright,
the trends we've got our eyes on here. Um, jared,
will start with you. I've got a couple of a
couple of tasty ones here on Maryland, but I'm curious
(01:45:51):
what you have on your list. What are the betting
trends telling you in terms of today's games? Are you
ready for this one, guys? This one updat all right,
Iowa rugerds total. We talked about it thirty three and
a half. It's the lowest total in college football since
two thousand and four. Guess what the Second Lowest One was? Yeah,
you guessed it. Another Iowa game last year against Wisconsin.
(01:46:13):
So when the total closes thirty six and a half
or lower, the under is fourteen five and one, since
two thousand and five and a few case you were
wondering that Iowa Wisconsin game last year, it landed right
on the number of thirty four twenty seven seven badgers. Sorry, Iowa,
sad man. That is a disturbing trend, I gotta be.
(01:46:43):
I mean imagine like thinking like Oh wow, this is
gonna be an underwhelming matchup, and then it even underwhelmed
you further. Um, actually, let's stick with this. Uh, let's
stick with this trend. Uh. Look, week four. We talked
about this early in the show. I just mentioned in
a moment ago. This welcomes in more conference play. Things
are starting to open up across college football. Now you're
(01:47:06):
getting to see in division, in conference rivalries, these Games
are heightened in their importance because we know how the
CFP looks at conference championships. That is weighted in the
end product on the season. Yeah, it's important to punch
up huge numbers on the scoreboard. But when possible, uh,
it's just the wind that you need. Typically you see
(01:47:27):
teams protect leads late. When this happens, you start to
see defenses pull off the pressure packages play a little
bit safer coverages when leading. So point totals, a lot
of them are inflated from nonconference play, especially when you're
going up against the citadel or or or or, you know, shoot,
Sacramento State Apparel is a war dog. But you know
(01:47:51):
when you're facing some of these opponents who you're trying
to warm up against, it overinflates these point totals come
week four and week five, and so I think a
lot unders are gonna hit this week. A couple of
trends here in this Maryland Michigan game where Maryland, they're
getting seven seen points as the road underdog. How about this?
And I like these trends that aren't before a color
(01:48:14):
TV was invented. You know what I mean? Like it's
gotta be recent for me to pay any attention to
it whatsoever, but Maryland Owen six against the spread against
ranked opponents since the start of the season and even
more recent than that, Owen four against the spread as
a double digit underdog since the start of last season.
(01:48:34):
so they're getting seventeen. Might look great before the game,
might not look great at halftime. Okay, we've got something
else here, Iowa Sam. Let's dive into it. Yeah, not
live yet. Live betting. Okay. We're looking for in game opportunities. Okay,
(01:48:56):
suppose these Games kick off and the scoring starts, the
lines adjust. I've got my own a couple of games.
I'll tell you what, jared, before you go. I'm looking
at this Florida game again. I'm on the GATORS. It'll
test your metal if the big favorite hot knife through butter,
goes right down the field scores seven points and you're like,
Oh Gosh, plus eleven is now, all of a sudden,
(01:49:17):
plus fourteen and a half or so. I doubled down.
I doubled I think the gators plus eleven is the
right side. If Tennessee gets off to a hot start,
I'm looking to live bed it. I am confident. That's
a good strategy. I like that strategy a lot. Here's
another strategy I like. If we see an early touchdown
in this Maryland Michigan game and if it looks like
(01:49:39):
Michigan's defense who, as you've mentioned, has faced a lot
of suspect opponents offensively so far. I think that game
could be shootout city. So if we get an early
and I'm already seeing the total tick up just a
little bit now in the mid sixties, I would be
fine with going over low seventies. I fits early touchdown
(01:50:01):
for Maryland, and we talked about Maryland. The back door
is gonna be open because everyone's betting Michigan in this game.
I think Maryland might have a chance to put some
points on the board, but I want to watch and
I want to see it with my own eyes, because
I told you how much Mike Locksley does not like
basing teams better than his team. They have not done
well in those spots, but if they do show a
(01:50:22):
little starch early on on offense, I'd be willing to
place a live over with Michigan and Maryland. Okay, all right, here,
tell me how crazy this is. All Right, I'm looking
at this Utah Arizona State Line right and this one
looks reasonably so it's it's a big number and I'm
(01:50:43):
cool with that. Are we up to fifteen and a
half and a half? Okay, well, what happens sometimes where
a team seems rudderless is they have a weird energy.
And so if Arizona state finds a way to keep
this game close in the first quarter, if they score early,
(01:51:03):
if they find a way to make this a contest,
you might want to go and chase down that Arizona
state line real quick. I don't know, I I feel.
I feel like this isn't this isn't uh gold sitting
in your pocket. But but these these these controversies or
or early season firings. You know, weird things happen. So
(01:51:26):
if the sun devils can make run at it early,
that's a line. That's a line that's not suspiciously high
to start but in game might be one to take
a look at. Yeah, and there's another one to throw
out there. I think we've talked about this Clemson wake
forest matchup. If you're on the Clemson side, it would
stun me if wake forest gets off to an early lead.
(01:51:47):
You might get a better line. You definitely would get
a better line. So if you're on Clemson it's a
very public play. Hey, clemson minus four and a half
sounds even better than clemson minus seven and a half
and that would be the sitch suation if wake forest
gets off to a decent start. So something to keep
in mind. Right there are we gotta close it down
in style over here. Our picks. The moment of truth. Huh.
(01:52:11):
You've heard all the data, all the analysis, all the numbers,
the figures, the analytics. Now you gotta put it to
the test over here and make a selection. So we'll
have three for you, all of us will right around
the corner. Plus Jared's play of the day. It's Fox
sports radio's count down to kickoff, presented by bet MGM.
(01:52:31):
Kickoffs are coming, sue, and we're leading you up to that.
This is Fox sports radio's countdown to kickoff, presented by
Bett MGM, the kick of sports boots once again. Here's
Brian no rich hornberger and jared's s yes, it is
(01:52:54):
Fox sports radio's count down to kickoff presented by bet MGM.
We are amasily twelve minutes away from kickoff and we're
also a measily twelve minutes away from a great program
up on game. Lafar, Arrington, Plexico, Burrus, T J, Hushman Zada.
Make sure you check them out. Look at you, all
(01:53:14):
set for week three. In the NFL and also a
full slate of college ball here today. Let's dive into this.
This is the best play of the day. While we're
going to our picks here it was. We've got three
picks for everybody. Jared Smith, you lead US off here.
(01:53:36):
What are you thinking, buddy? All Right, Tu in one
last week, five and four for the season. I'm gonna
give you a couple of games we haven't talked about. Um,
you know, they're all encompassing. Obviously I'm on a lot
of picks today, but here are the three I'm gonna
give you here. Louisville minus fourteen and a half let
down spot for south Florida after almost upsetting the gators
in the swamp last week. Now you have to face
Malik Cunningham and this cardinal offense, which is dominant, I think,
(01:53:59):
and you get the Bulls. Hundred and thirty first and
efficiency against the run. Good luck keeping the leak in
the pocket today. USF also one of the worst passing
offenses in the country. So if they fall behind, I
don't think they're gonna be able to keep up. I
don't love the number, but fourteen in a hook. I
think Louisville does work today. How can we not mention
the Colorado Buffaloes on this show? It's a weekly thing.
U C L A is laying twenty one today. Bruins
(01:54:20):
had a scare last week against South Alabama. I think
it's actually a good thing for them to call on
the road away from the Rose Bowl, and Colorado is
just the dubster fire. I don't think they're gonna fire
Carl Durrell because they can't afford to. They allim eight
million dollars if they let him go before the end
of the year. That's bad news for Colorado. They look lifeless.
I'm laying a big number today with U C L A.
(01:54:40):
and finally, the Dookey Pukis. Listen, Kansas. I understand all
the high but they're two and twelve against the number.
is a favorite over the last ten seasons. And you
want me to lay a touchdown in a hook with
the Jayhawks? No, thank you. Blue Devil's offense efficient. I
think they can keep up in this game. Riley Leonard,
the quarterback, has taken a step forward and racing that
completion percentage in a sophomore season. I'll take you plus
(01:55:03):
seven and a half. Get it out, baby. Okay, okay, alright,
one in two last week. What am I on this season?
It ain't great. Three and six overall, alright, but we're
gonna make a comeback here, and here's why. Because we're
following a trend. I was talking about it all day long,
about coaches getting little tight in conference. Let's Roll Clemson.
(01:55:24):
They've got a suffocating defense. Wake forest does not wake forest,
insanely efficient passing offense. Clemson. Zoe needs to step it up.
Total set of fifty seven and a hook. I'm taking
the under. Let's move along Tennessee Florida. Okay, so Florida's
Anthony Richardson struggled recently. Need a big game to get
(01:55:45):
it up. So I think the gators will try to
slow this down, rely on the run a little bit,
maybe some ground and pounds, some planned qb rushes, especially
in their first road test. This total set at sixty
three and a half. Give me the under. Okay, God yous.
Seeing Oregon State. Okay, I fully believe us. He is
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capable of getting the road victory by a touchdown and,
more similarly, I'm fully believing that the beavers are capable
of winning today defending their home turf by a touchdown
a more so. I don't want to touch this point.
I don't want to touch the spread with a tempo poll.
So what I'm gonna do is I'm going to go
under the total. Seventy and a half. Okay, three others,
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the undertaker. Let's roll, boys. We need low rider as
your theme music in the background over there. Love that
rich okay, so the theme of my three picks this
week gotta be bold. Gotta be bold. Now you're not
gonna think this is bold. Initially, clemson minus seven and
a half. I'd say it's a bit bold because it's
(01:56:50):
such a public play. You might be tempted to not
go with the public play. I just look at the matchup.
Forget about whether it's the public the square play, the
aren't played. Forget all of that. Who Do you like
in the matchup? Slow Mesh meets a dominant defensive line.
I'm laying the seven and a half and going with Clemson.
(01:57:11):
Now we get boulder over here. I'm looking at Arkansas
against Texas A and M. Texas A and M is
having a hard time scoring points. The total is at
fifty one at bet mgm I'm taking the over in
this one. At Jerry's world. I look at Arkansas's past defense.
Now very good, now very good. So I think Max
Johnson has a lot more success today. I expect a
(01:57:32):
lot more fireworks than you might think offensively heading in.
I'm gonna take the over fifty one in this one.
And then I'm looking at the Florida gators. Plus ten
and a half against Tennessee. Tennessee has smacked around a
couple of MAC teams. Tennessee barely beat Pitt in overtime.
I'm not impressed. In fact, my Fu gayzy detector is
(01:57:52):
starting to be b Bi Bi, Bi, Bi Bi Bi
Fu gayze volunteers over here. And plus I get Anthony Richardson,
a potential so first round NFL talent. He's underwhelmed to
this point last couple of games, but it's a see
it before it happens moment. I expect him to play
a lot better. By the way, Florida's one sixteen, seventeen
in this matchup in this series we're live today. Plus
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ten and a half. This is where I get bowled.
I don't even want the ten and a half. I'm
going money line plus two goats get just some wow.
I know that's a month on the floor moment, right there,
right there. All right, we've got the best for last.
Let's do this. This is the best play of the day.
(01:58:43):
All Right, Jared Smith, you've been in the lab. Where
are you cooking up for us here, buddy? All right,
we gotta get back on track. After winning week one,
we've dropped two in a row. Nebraska last week was
an utter disaster. I apologize for making you watch that.
We're going with the smart kids super bowl this week.
Stanford's catching two touchdowns on the road at Washington. I
love the cardinal run game. I think they can control
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some tempo against this Washington high powered offense. Calona bore
and Michael Pennox have been fantastic, but this is a
letdown spot. They just beat a ranked big ten team
last week. Now you have to follow it up with
a tough, nose Stanford team, and this is the spots
that David Shaw Excels. It hasn't happened a lot, but
as a dog of two touchdowns are more in pact.
Twelve play two and oh against the number, including an
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outright win over USC last season. As an eighteen point underdog.
I don't know if they're gonna win the game today,
but we love Tanner McKee. We've talked about him overcame
cancer at age sixteen, went on that Church mission a
couple of years ago. Starting to get some draft buzz.
If Stanford could get a little creative, I think they
cover the number tonight at Washington. Alright, good stuff. I'm
gonna be thinking of you when points are scored today.
(01:59:48):
Rich