December 15, 2022 • 33 mins
Brian Noe previews the weekend in football with the sharpest minds in betting! Pickswise Lead Betting Analyst Jared Smith joins Brian to preview the biggest bowl games coming this Saturday. Sports Handicapper from KrackWins.com Bill Krackomberger joins Brian to preview Week 15 in the NFL, including a special look at Thursday Night Football between the 49ers and Seahawks!
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Are you ready to witness great NFL fans? Welcome to
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(00:23):
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Let's go, let's go. This is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
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Kickoff presented by bet MGM, the podcast to get y'all
(00:45):
set for college football and the NFL. We'll have Jared
Smith from picks wise dot com, their lead betting analysts,
Bill Crackenburger covering the NFL sports handicapper from crack Winds
dot com. I'm Brian no New users, download the bet
MGM app today and use code countdown for a special offer.
That's code countdown in the bet MGM app. Let's welcome
(01:07):
in Jared Smith here before we get to the previews,
licking my wounds a little bit here with the Army
Navy over blood Bath, which was the double overtime just
knife to the heart. Last, what was that, Jared Smith?
I mean to be fair, I did warn our our
our listeners before you know, we signed off on Saturday.
(01:31):
The smallest unit of measurement for this beat because you
were but basically buying bitcoin at the peak um with
the number being as low as it was. And the
irony is if the game would have been the average
total over the last couple of decades, which was in
the low forties, then that game still stays under despite
double overtime. But because the total had dipped so much
(01:52):
dramatically over the last few seasons, it was now at
a point that even though the game trended under, you
had that one fluke overtime moment and and all of
a sudden, the explosion in overtime means it goes over.
So again, that's why the price matters, Brian, right, the
price matters only the only overtime game in the history
(02:12):
of Army name the only one. And then back to
back tounsdowns on their first place that was straight crash,
straight trash. By the way, also before FBS, I know
this is near and dear to your heart, how about
this incarnate word at North Dakota State in the FCS playoffs.
You got North Dakota State favored by nine and a
(02:34):
half at bet MGM. How about the total seventy one
and a half, which seems pretty high, but maybe not
high enough when you consider they combined for what incarnate
word in Sacramento State a hundred and twenty nine total
points the game previous. So are you dipping your big
toe in the FCS playoff waters here? Jared I should write,
(02:54):
you know, sadly, this game's Friday, So when Shamus comes
on to give us the Shamus Special, Shamus g of course,
the bet MGM traders graced his presence on our air
withs almost all season. We won't have the um the
Shamus Report for this game. We're gonna have to stick
to Montana State and South Dakota State, which will be
(03:14):
played on Saturday. I'll be honest a lot of and
we'll get into the ball games, right we'll talk about
some of the weird situational, you know, tendencies that that
kind of pop up here in the transfer portal has
kind of reared its ugly head in the direction that
no one really could expect. But that's that's what's happened
the FCS games in the playoffs are kind of the
(03:34):
better handicaps at this point. The you know, you're getting
the best efforts from all teams because they're playing for championships,
and I think the markets a little softer, so there
might be some edges there that we'll ask Shamus about
on Saturday, right, Yeah, Yeah, it's and you know who's
playing in the fcfcfs. You know, you get a couple
(03:55):
of curveballs in the FBS games. But if we turned
our attention to a couple of the f FBS Bowl games,
how about the Wasab Fenway Bowl over here. I still
love that. I don't think that commercials about twenty years old.
But uh with sab with with Louisville in Cincinnati, kind
of a coach swap in this one. I love this matchup, Jared.
(04:18):
What a bizarre situation. Right, And this is exactly when
I talk about the metrics and the analytics and a
lot of the things that I like to rely on
to handicap games throughout the course of the season. Let's
call it a fifty fifty split between situational and analytical.
That's kind of my style. When we get to this stage,
it's kind of situational because let's be honest, how can
(04:39):
you take any of the metrics that we've seen from
Louisville head coach Scott Saderfield now going to Cincinnati. How
can we expect Louisville, who just lost their head coach,
to the team they're playing, you know, go off of
any of those tendencies and numbers that we've seen all year. Like,
I know, a lot of the players are the same,
but to me, it's a really it's a difficult handicap
(05:01):
in a lot of these games, and this spot, I
think is one of the trickiest. So not only is
Sadderfield going across across the dugout um, but the offensive
line coach, the quarterback coach, the defensive coordinator, the linebacker coach.
It's really hard to find a motivational edge here because
I think if your Cincinnati, you want to play well
for your new head coach against his former team, and
(05:23):
if you're Louisville, you want to show up your old
head coach for switching side. So again, certain games, the
motivational angle stares you right in the face. I think
Oregon State in Florida is the big one, but this
one I could make a case for both sides, and
the market has kind of been fickle. It's gone from
a pick um to now Louisville about a two and
(05:43):
a half point favorite. But I've seen some Cincinnati money
pop up at points throughout the last week, so it's
not one way traffic. But for the most part, Louisville
about a consensus to two and a half point favorite.
They've been a little bit more of the market, Darling
so far. To this point, nothing may my heart dropped
like huge line movement in Bowl games, because the total
(06:05):
is just plummeted in this one. And I don't know
about you, Jared, but I start it's almost like stuff
starts shaking and I'm looking for a doorway or something
to hold onto, like what is going on in the
earth is moving over here? But the total has dropped
all the way to under forty. It's at thirty nine
and a half right now at bet MGM. And so
when I get any of this big line movement, I'm like,
(06:27):
who's out, Who's out of the game, because it tends
to indicate that's the case here. I'm gonna look this
stet up um and I'll have it for us on
Saturday when games moved by three points or more, or
totals moved by three points or more in Bowl season,
if I recall again, no data right now to back
(06:47):
it up, but conjecture and you know, observation and kind
of my memory of it. The games that got steamed
pretty hard, they all up. Most of those sides ended
up cashing, and it goes against what my style would be,
which is contrarian. You see the line move, there's value
on the other side by low sell high. I think
(07:08):
in Bull season it's really hard, but I throw out
a lot of my classic betting principles that I used
throughout the course of the season, the analytical you know breakdowns,
and then the by low cell high nature because of
just it's really hard to cap where the number should
be with all of the changes and the fluctuations, and
you almost have to be willing to overspend to get
(07:32):
the right side of of of that game. Because I
think the motivational angle mount matters more. And it looks
like weather in this particular game could be a factor.
In Boston on a Saturday morning in the middle of December.
I've never been to Boston in December, but I would
imagine it won't be sunshines and rainbows at Fenway Park
for this game. Probably not. How about it? We look
(07:52):
at the Las Vegas Bowl, Florida against Oregon State, and
it's probably unfair. I think of Oregon State like Army
or Navy right now after they just ran the ball
down Oregon's throat. I know that's unfair, but I'm just
curious we start off there is Oregon is they're gonna
be able to run the ball effectively against Florida. If
(08:13):
they can, they might be able to cover ten points.
Ten points a huge spread in this game. The Beaves
getting some major love from Vegas, but um yeah, it's
about Florida. Can they stop the run because if you've
got that two pronged throwing and running attack from the Beeves,
this could be a nasty spot for Florida here. Yeah,
(08:34):
and in the offshore markets. This line opened at five
and it did not take long. It went from five
two ten in like four hours. I mean, it was immediate,
and I think the people who are in the know.
There's a few of them. I've mentioned them on the
show before, Brad Power's being one. These are notable college
football sharps. Pros that that thousands of dollars on games
(08:57):
the second the line strop because their numbers are so good.
They knew about the Anthony Richardson situation before it was happening.
And we've discussed one of those situations on the show
multiple times. It's Bryce Young in Alabama. We saw the
Alabama line steam down. We'll get to that game in
a couple of weeks, right, But when you have that
insider knowledge, I don't wanna call an insider knowledge, but
when you're when you're ahead of the game and you
(09:18):
get a minus five of the Oregon State man, you're
feeling really good about yourself. Right now at ten eleven
is where we've kind of seen the ceiling here. And
Oregon State can ra on the football very effectively, and
Florida has struggled to stop the run this year. They're
outside the top one twenty in power success, right, meaning
if it's third or fourth and one, Oregon State's gonna
pick up those first downs almost every single time. And
(09:40):
there are sixty percent, right, I mean, you don't see
that in college football unless your army here a Navy, right,
sixty percent run heavy offense. I mean that is a heavy,
heavy load to bear, and I don't know if Florida
is going to be up for this game physically emotionally,
I don't think they are. And if they're not up emotionally,
and organ State's gonna pound the rock a million time
times in this game, you would think that will take
(10:02):
its toll physically. And that's where I think Oregon State
has a big edge. And man, the market's telling you
in an SEC team a double digit dog against the
Pact wall team. Part of me just wants to take
the points out of principle, but again, the steam has
tended to be the right side here and I think
Oregon State will be the right side. Last thing, real fast,
if we just take a quick peek at the college
(10:24):
football playoff matchups. As you said last week, no line
movement in terms of the point spread, seeing a little
bit of movement on the totals. They've both moved in
a point in either direction in both games, but still
seven and a half point favorites those food Gazzy Wolverines.
There plenty of time to uh get in on TCU either.
(10:44):
Plus the points are on the money line. That's where
I'm looking at, and it's to me I'll stand by
my prediction of last week. These you'll if you want
these numbers, you'll be able to get them this week,
You'll be able to get them next week, and you'll
probably even be able to get him the week of
the game. Um. But that's when we might see another
(11:06):
limit expand and some of the bigger money step into
the market and push this towards probably the keys. I
would be willing to bet it closes Georgia seven and
miss and TCU seven like it. It feels like that's
the direction we've been trending in for the last couple
of weeks, but we've hit that lull in the market
now where it's kind of no man's land, and I
think if you really like TCU at seven and a half,
(11:28):
that might be the one that I would bet now
because I could see that hook evaporating quicker than Georgia
getting to seven, if that makes sense, Because TCU has
been the trend to your side, they've been the trend
to your dog, and it looks like seven's kind of
that consensus number, whereas Georgia Ohio State. I think if
it got to seven, you'd see a lot of Ohio
(11:49):
State money step in at seven because every time it's
reached seven, it's reached there a couple of times um.
When it first opened, it's been bought back down very quick.
So I think Georgia is kind of on the fringe.
Let's call it six point seven five, right, and then TCU.
I'm guessing that will be a flat seven come game week.
So if you want the hook with the horn frogs,
I would buy that one relatively sick. By the way,
(12:13):
you just opened a new possibility betting on what the
betting line closes at. How about that whole new world over.
I've got no that's called That's called you just beat
the market long term and you're gonna win, period, and
the story it's emotionless. Take be a robot. Just beat
the market long term, doesn't matter what the final number is.
(12:35):
If you do that a hundred times out of a hundred,
you're gonna probably win those bets. No, no, no, yeah,
I don't know if it's I'm saying it right. We're
betting on what the betting line closes that not what's
the right side, because you're saying seven, so you can
bet on will it be seven? Will it be higher
than that? We can bet on the betting line. What
(12:57):
do you think about that? I mean, I think if
there was a way for us, this is why I'm
glad we don't do shows in person. The side bets
we would make during the commercial breaks, one of us
would be in deep already this year, probably Rich Frankly,
but um, by the way, catch us on Saturday. We'll
have rich Orn Burger Penn State All American does a
(13:20):
great job. Jared Smith from picks wise dot com. I'm
Brian No Saturdays from nine am until noon Eastern time.
We'll get you all set for these Bowl games on
Fox Sports Radio. Earn a fifty dollar bonus by signing
into bet MGM and clicking on refer a friend to
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(13:41):
Bet MGM, the King of sports Books, wanna welcome in
Bill Crack and Burger from crack wins dot com sports handicapper.
He has many thoughts on the NFL this week. He
has many thoughts before the podcast even began, and now
he's gonna have even more thoughts that the podcast is running.
Crack Let's start off Thursday, Night football, a lot of
(14:02):
brock Purty love. My timeline is blowing up. Hey, I
got the Niners plus nine hundred to win the Super Bowl.
I'm just rolling my eyes at this. The Niners are
three point favorites on the road against Seattle. What do
you think about tonight's game in Week fifteen? Listen, when
when everything anything looks good, it looks too good. It
is too good to look at. So you know, I
(14:24):
look at the pre flop. The pre flop line on
this game was three. So think about that. When I
say pre flop, I mean the line look aheadline before
the season started, even even after this season started. People
don't know. Here in Vegas and a couple of different
the apps that came to the new jurisdictions, you can
bet any single week, any team. So every single game
(14:46):
every week is up, uh you know throughout the year.
Uh here in Vegas ahead of time. So look aheadline
on this game was three. Think about that. The look
aheadline on this game was three. That was with that
was the Garoppolo, you know, thinking that he's gonna be
the quarterback. So now the situation is we have this
party who people are really high on. Like you said,
(15:09):
and the line is still free. It it scares me.
It scares me. I I mean I I don't know
that this is a stay away game for me. Um,
you know it's it's a couple of spots. Have three
and a half if I'm looking to down. Here's a
perfect example of a pretty low total forty three. If
you're betting foot this game tonight, which I know most
(15:29):
of you, the most of your d gens are Um.
By the way, we're all dgens and are in special ways.
But um, I'll tell you you have to make sure
if you're betton San Fran you're laying three. If you're
betting Seattle, you're taking three and a half. That's all
I can tell you. It could be that type of
a game where it's gonna be played that close. But um,
I'm kind of staying away from this game. Something's fishing
(15:51):
in this game. Brian, Hey, how about Saturday. We're looking
at the Ravens and the Browns. Browns are favored by
two and a half. You've got your eye on b
more in this one crank. It could be Tyler Huntley
should be hopefully across your fingers. He's hasn't been cleared
yet from concussion protocol, but it's trending in that direction.
Where he will play. If that's the case, would be
(16:13):
Tyler Huntley against DeShawn Watson. And right now Tyler Huntley
is playing as well as Deshaun Watson is, so that's
something to keep in minding that matchup as well. Yeah,
he's going to play the game, of course. Um, Like,
I actually lean Baltimore here, And if he doesn't play
the game, I don't even know who the third string is.
(16:34):
I I've seen the name. I don't just don't know
who he is. I don't want nothing to do with that. So, um,
I think he's going to play. Like his head is
trending in that direction. The lines three or three dog
twenty most most spots bet MGM is actually three flat. Um.
I kind of lean Baltimore here, right, I'm not going
to be on the Cleveland train for a while until
(16:54):
I see more out of Watson. Now. I do know
he did come back last weekending he did play better
than the first game. Uh, there was still a little
rust and even more importantly, U there was some drop passes.
So I'm not gonna blame him. Uh you know, but
then again, they have a center issue there too, where
they're they're having some problems with their their their centers out,
(17:15):
their backup centers in. So that means so much. People
don't realize the value of alignment, especially a center in
in the NFL, so very valuable position, key position. Actually, UM,
I'm gonna lean Baltimore a little bit now done. Listen,
this is like Thanksgiving Day. Um, I'm gonna use Las
Vegas times here, so you have ten am the first game,
(17:37):
one thirty and five fifteen, three different times spreadouts throughout
the day. You just don't have to bet all these games. Guys,
I know it's gonna be fun to do it. You
want to bet it. Look at the betting some player
props looking to bet maybe a first half total or
maybe I even said, you throw a peanut on Baltimore
on plus the three. How about my Dolphins, My Dolphins
(18:00):
heading to Buffalo. Uh, they haven't fared well when the
temperature is forty or below when kickoff starts right there,
eight straight losses we have, Mike McDaniel, the Dolphin said
coach rocking A. I wish it were a colder T
shirt and practice, but the Dolphins, I don't know what
(18:21):
happened last week. Crack against the Chargers, Justin Herbert was fantastic.
That's not a shocker. What was shocking is Miami could
not run the football against a horrible rush defense with
the Chargers. So now heading on the road at Buffalo,
they just don't have momentum heading into this spot. I'll
say that much. They're trending in the wrong direction. You know,
(18:42):
one of the guys I respect out here on his
podcast on Monday, he gave out something that you're not
gonna like the Dolphins to not make the playoffs plus
two fifty. Um, it's a it's a you know, it's
a good plus. As a matter of fact, now I
see the Jets to make the playoffs plus one sixty.
(19:03):
I think it's a good spot to bet both of them.
Maybe maybe bet the Jets plus the one six to
make the playoffs and bet the Dolphins not to make
the playoffs. Get two pluses. Now, this weekends a big weekend, though, Uh,
you know Detroit's playing the Jet so maybe you even
want to wait so you would't know who that number
goes to and if the Jets win that game. Um,
(19:25):
but yeah, Miami going to the Buffalo seven points. I
even see I see one seven and a half on
my screen. I'll beat again. Situational here again, guys, you're
bet in this game. You want to get You want
to do the line shop and to get to seven
and a half. If you're bet in Miami, you want
to lay the seven. If you're bet in Buffalo. So
this year, all these marquee teams, the Buffalo's, the Cleveland's,
(19:48):
the Philadelphia's. I'm not Cleveland, sorry, but the Buffalo's. I'm
at the Buffalo, Kansas City and Philadelphia. Those three teams
are like the big three teams in football. They have
all showed weakness throughout the year and have had streaks
of games where they lost are almost lost. I mean,
I thought Dallas was one of the best teams in
football up until last week. I mean, you know the
(20:10):
Dallas should have lost to the worst team in football
Houston in Dallas. So again, is that any given week
anything cannon will happened. Let me tell you, I'm not
looking at the Lano points on Buffalo, and I know
all that the history of the teams in the weather.
I'm not looking at the Lano point, just like I
said on our our Sunday Countdown the kickoff show before
the end of the game, before the end of the
(20:31):
show last week, it feels like a game. It's so
much fumping with you guys. Um all three big favorite,
big big favorites fade them and you would have been
three and oh as as every team Kansas City, Dallas,
and Buffalo all did not cover fail to cover their
games on Sunday. Yeah, how about the other Saturday game?
(20:51):
Here the line stands out to me. The Colts, which
are obviously grease fire there four eight and one, and
the Cold so are at Minnesota. Minnesota off of a
loss against Detroit, but only a four point favorite. I
just look at the matchup styles make fights cracked, and
Minnesota's past defense is brutal. Is Matt Ryan gonna exploit
(21:15):
a poor past defense? I don't see that happening. And
after an embarrassing loss from Minnesota only favored by four,
I think it's too much skepticism in this particular matchup
from Vegas. What do you think you're You're exactly what
what you're saying is exactly what the Joe public is saying.
Because that the four four it looks so low. This
(21:37):
was like this. This team was literally, uh you know,
picked in the and then and then one of the
top teams in football when they were eight and one
or whatever they were. I mean, and now Indianapolis, which
you just don't know what you're getting with them. You
don't know what you're getting with Indianapolis. You don't know
if you're getting the Indianapolis that almost Philadelphia or you're
(21:59):
geting in the Indianapolis team that has been blown out
in situations this year. You just you just don't know
what team you're gonna get. I mean, the Patriots just
killed them three. I mean, you just don't know that.
How about? But yet they were holding their own when
we were in Mississippi. They were holding their own verse
the Cowboys up until the fourth quarter in Dallas nineteen,
(22:24):
holding their own in that game. And then of course
Dallas exploded for thirty some points in the fourth quarter.
And uh so you just don't know what you're getting
with this team. Um, the Vikings, I'll tell you I
have a future on them to win the Super Bowl
at fifty to one, but I'm not so confident that,
you know, to be blunt, I've seen them there, their schedule,
(22:46):
who they played. Yes they're tenant three now, Yes they're
the NFC North leading team. But I'll tell you one thing,
I don't think they're the best team in the NFC North.
I actually think the Lions. I said it even before
last week's game. I think the Lions are the best
teams of it. And then the Lions, if they only
had a better start, with a couple of those close games,
(23:07):
they would be set for a run at the playoffs.
I just don't know if they can get there now.
It's always great when I hear what you're saying, Brian
is exactly what Joe Public is saying. It's great. I
do a Tiger Woods fist pump like that. My dreams
came true. I hope you don't don't take that as
an insult. It's a very normal things, very normal though.
(23:27):
I'll tell when you're right now looking at that game.
Everyone doesn't think Minnesota should be more over slowly Indianapolis.
Everyone doesn't think even tonight, Sam France would be more
over Seattle. Seattle just lost. They got embarrassed at home
versus to Carolina Panthers. So you gotta put yourself inside
the bookmakers shoes and what what sides are they going
to need? Probably gonna need the Seattle side, but definitely
(23:50):
going to need the Indianapolis side. Yeah, they definitely will
need that. I just don't know if it's gonna work
out for him. We'll see how plays out. You're on
the Falcon Saints first half line. We're at twenty one
right now. What are you see in this one? Crack? Yeah,
bet MGM is so over? I like, I think some
points here in this game Atlanta, New Orleans first half
(24:11):
over game is forty three and a half, forty four.
First of all, for a forty three and a half.
This was one of the first things I looked at
for a forty three and a half or forty four.
I'll look at a game like Campus Incinnati, same exact total.
I'll tell you twenty one and a half the line everywhere,
so twenty one and there's still twenty ones. Like I
(24:32):
said that, bet MGM is about five casinos here in town.
That may not be a key number because you don't
know if these teams are only gonna be throwing touchdowns,
you know, but I still think that, uh, you're gonna
get some points out here at these two teams and listen,
is their playoff hopes that well, I don't know. You
(24:54):
know that with the Buccaneers in the NFC South falling,
they just don't seem like they're uh, you know, they're
definitely not super Bowl bound. They haven't played as well
as of late. Especially anyone can win the NFC South,
that's right, And I say anyone, probably not the Saints,
but Panthers are Falcons absolutely when the NFC South, I
think there's gonna be some points scored here. Um, I'm
(25:17):
hoping the Falcons could come through that. I need them
to actually be though. I'm pretty confident that no oneleans
going to score at least ten points. So I think
we're gonna get that out of both teams, and uh,
you know, maybe a couple of touchdowns here and there,
and I think that over twenty one is probably a
good bet. I'm looking at that right now. By the way,
a couple more that are interesting to me. I love
the late afternoon window Titans at the Chargers. Chargers are
(25:42):
favored by two and a half right now at bet MGM,
So think about this matchup. Crack Tennessee has been brutal
the last three weeks. We just saw the Chargers look
great on Sunday Night Football, but think about this particular matchup.
The Chargers rush defense is bad, and that's the one
thing that the Titans can do very well is run
(26:02):
the football with Derrick Henry. So I'm curious if the
Tennessee Titans can somehow get back on track. Both are
seven and six teams. But it's another spot where I
look at it the other way, where man, the Chargers
are only favored by two and a half at home.
That screams Tennessee to me. And I know you might
not love it heading in. You might not run to
(26:24):
the window like I'm going with Tennessee after what we've seen.
They got kicked in the teep last week against Jacksonville.
I think Tennessee might be the right side. I mean,
just look at tennessee last three games. They they lost
to Jacksonville at home in Tennessee, they lost by five
to the Eagles, so you got the Eagles fourteen to
the Jaguars, and then they lost at home to the Bengals,
(26:48):
which I'm high on the Bengals, and everyone's high on
the Bengals right now. They lost by four to the Bengals.
They haven't won a game literally and almost someone. Um,
they did beat the Packers, but the Packers aren't the
Packers who they used to be. I am just probably
staying far away from this from this game. But however, um,
(27:08):
you know that I wasn't impressed with the Chargers now
the Chargers now beat Miami. Like I said, trending in
some different directions here. I think this game is probably relyned.
Right at three, I think I think Charges being home
three points. But then again, home field advantage is not
what it used to be in the NFL. As a
(27:28):
matter of fact, I'm gonna say home field advantage is
nothing like it was even five years ago. In the NFL.
We have a lot of teams, like like the Raiders,
who are bringing a lot of opposite opposition fans. We
have I seen, I mean I actually seen Houston fans
in the stadium even though it's in the same state
(27:49):
of Texas with Dallas last week. Um, it's it's not
like it used to be Tampa Bay. You'll see Cincinnati
fans in the in the stadium. Chargers, I don't know
so much, so but listen, I'm sorry, I'm sorry, l
A I've been to a lot of your games. You
guys just aren't You aren't guys that like like hardcore fans.
(28:10):
It seems like to me the almost fair weather in
l A. People leave. I've been the Dodger games where
they their teams losing my two runs and everyone walks
out in the eighth end and go, let's beat the traffic.
That's not a fan. I stay at the whole game,
the entire game. I'm a fan of the game. I'll
put up with the traffic if I though, I'm a
fan of a team. So uh, this particular game, like
(28:31):
I said, it is three at most spots. If you're
saying two and a half, might be two and a
half minus some juice at mgm um, It's probably a
game I'm staying away from right now. I don't have
an opinion on the side or a total, but it'll
be interested in the city. It's probably a more important
game for Tennessee, who has lost three in a row.
I'll tell you that I would pick at the over.
(28:54):
I pick at the over as well because the Chargers, again,
I'm surprised they played so well offensively against the Dolphins,
but their defense is so banged up and they're starting
to roll on offense, so I think the over could
hit as well. Last one cracks Sunday Night Football. You
got your eyes on this one Giants at the Commanders,
and you're not only looking at just week fifteen, You're
(29:16):
you're looking at the Giants season win total. What do
you see in this week and beyond for the Giants. Yeah,
I bet over at the beginning of the season under
under under seven and a half for a large amount
of money on the Giants, and it looked like I
was gonna easily lose my money. I have a chance
actually to win that now. So, um, they'd have to
lose the rest of their games, but their schedule really besides,
(29:40):
I think they're playing the Cults at home if they
if the Colts win that game, that I have a
chance to still win my bet. So Giants haven't looked
that good of lately. Have two different teams here and
going in two different directions. Washington has been playing pretty good.
Of course, that big Eagles victory in Philadelphia. Um, and
they've played good. And I'll tell you, I think there
(30:01):
are nice odds to go to the playoffs. I think
they're there. They have insane odds. Actually I've seen. Yeah,
it's still there. Oh my god. I mean, I know
it's a crazy bet, but you just want to throw
not even a peanut. You want to throw a peanut
shell on maybe the Commanders to win, uh to actually
to actually win the the NFC at fifty to one.
(30:23):
I think it's really just you know it, throw twenty
bucks on to win a thousand MUCKs or something. It's just,
like I said, something that looks like it could be
a good bet. However, this is gonna shock you now
saying all this stuff. Teams going in two different directions,
I wouldn't be looking at the lake points on Washington
and the spot old rival game, old rivalry. I would
(30:43):
even maybe looked there's a couple of fives here in town.
I would even maybe look towards the Giants. I did
not bet the game, and I probably won't bet it.
But just for the people out there, UM, just know
where you're betting here. You're bet an old old rivals.
You're betting um teams that are going into from directions.
But this is a very big game for the Giants.
I would expect them to keep it closer. Even though
(31:05):
I hope they don't for my future is bet. You know,
I hate to end the podcast on a sour note here, crack,
but this is the crazy thing with the Giants tie
where they are seven five and one right now, the
best you could do on your season bet is push
because right on the seven and a half. But they
technically have seven and a half wins right now. That's
(31:26):
not the way it works with the sports bookstof with
the tie. Yeah, but tie if you if you if
you have if they have seven wins for the year.
Even though it's a tie, it's not a win, and
you still get paid on the under. But the it's
I don't know how it works in Vegas, but a
tie is half a win and half a loss, like literally,
so they have half a win right there. They have
seven and a half right now. Your point, Your point
(31:48):
makes valid sense though I never thought of that, Brian.
But unfortunately that's not the way the bookmakers in Vegas
work there. They pay you on the nitor. Wow, have
you had that happened before it? I have it and
by Sunday I'll have the answer. Every book does that,
but I'm pretty I'm pretty sure every book pays you
(32:08):
on the under seven and a half. As long as
they have seven wins, that the pie doesn't mean anything.
Can you imagine if the Giants lose their final four
games and you run to the betting window to cash
your Giants season under and they're like, you actually push,
here's your your money back. Yeah, it can happen, but
(32:30):
I don't think you can get I think I'm I
think I'm okay there. I don't know. We'll see, We'll
see how it goes. Hey, check out the problem. I know.
I hope you do. I hope you at least get
the cash back that you put down on the Giant
season win total for sure. Be sure to check out
the new looking features in the bed MGM app. It's
fast and easy access to the sports you love, whether
it's live betting, the Daily Lions Boost, or the cash
(32:52):
out feature. New users can use the code countdown for
a special offer. All right Sunday check us out. Bill
Crack and Burger from crack Winds dot com. Jeff Schwartz,
eight year NFL veteran, I'm Brian Noe, will be with
you on Fox Sports Radio ten am until one pm
Eastern Time, leading right up to kick off. Check us,
(33:13):
then
Are you ready to witness great NFL fans? Welcome to
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(00:23):
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Let's go, let's go. This is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
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Kickoff presented by bet MGM, the podcast to get y'all
(00:45):
set for college football and the NFL. We'll have Jared
Smith from picks wise dot com, their lead betting analysts,
Bill Crackenburger covering the NFL sports handicapper from crack Winds
dot com. I'm Brian no New users, download the bet
MGM app today and use code countdown for a special offer.
That's code countdown in the bet MGM app. Let's welcome
(01:07):
in Jared Smith here before we get to the previews,
licking my wounds a little bit here with the Army
Navy over blood Bath, which was the double overtime just
knife to the heart. Last, what was that, Jared Smith?
I mean to be fair, I did warn our our
our listeners before you know, we signed off on Saturday.
(01:31):
The smallest unit of measurement for this beat because you
were but basically buying bitcoin at the peak um with
the number being as low as it was. And the
irony is if the game would have been the average
total over the last couple of decades, which was in
the low forties, then that game still stays under despite
double overtime. But because the total had dipped so much
(01:52):
dramatically over the last few seasons, it was now at
a point that even though the game trended under, you
had that one fluke overtime moment and and all of
a sudden, the explosion in overtime means it goes over.
So again, that's why the price matters, Brian, right, the
price matters only the only overtime game in the history
(02:12):
of Army name the only one. And then back to
back tounsdowns on their first place that was straight crash,
straight trash. By the way, also before FBS, I know
this is near and dear to your heart, how about
this incarnate word at North Dakota State in the FCS playoffs.
You got North Dakota State favored by nine and a
(02:34):
half at bet MGM. How about the total seventy one
and a half, which seems pretty high, but maybe not
high enough when you consider they combined for what incarnate
word in Sacramento State a hundred and twenty nine total
points the game previous. So are you dipping your big
toe in the FCS playoff waters here? Jared I should write,
(02:54):
you know, sadly, this game's Friday, So when Shamus comes
on to give us the Shamus Special, Shamus g of course,
the bet MGM traders graced his presence on our air
withs almost all season. We won't have the um the
Shamus Report for this game. We're gonna have to stick
to Montana State and South Dakota State, which will be
(03:14):
played on Saturday. I'll be honest a lot of and
we'll get into the ball games, right we'll talk about
some of the weird situational, you know, tendencies that that
kind of pop up here in the transfer portal has
kind of reared its ugly head in the direction that
no one really could expect. But that's that's what's happened
the FCS games in the playoffs are kind of the
(03:34):
better handicaps at this point. The you know, you're getting
the best efforts from all teams because they're playing for championships,
and I think the markets a little softer, so there
might be some edges there that we'll ask Shamus about
on Saturday, right, Yeah, Yeah, it's and you know who's
playing in the fcfcfs. You know, you get a couple
(03:55):
of curveballs in the FBS games. But if we turned
our attention to a couple of the f FBS Bowl games,
how about the Wasab Fenway Bowl over here. I still
love that. I don't think that commercials about twenty years old.
But uh with sab with with Louisville in Cincinnati, kind
of a coach swap in this one. I love this matchup, Jared.
(04:18):
What a bizarre situation. Right, And this is exactly when
I talk about the metrics and the analytics and a
lot of the things that I like to rely on
to handicap games throughout the course of the season. Let's
call it a fifty fifty split between situational and analytical.
That's kind of my style. When we get to this stage,
it's kind of situational because let's be honest, how can
(04:39):
you take any of the metrics that we've seen from
Louisville head coach Scott Saderfield now going to Cincinnati. How
can we expect Louisville, who just lost their head coach,
to the team they're playing, you know, go off of
any of those tendencies and numbers that we've seen all year. Like,
I know, a lot of the players are the same,
but to me, it's a really it's a difficult handicap
(05:01):
in a lot of these games, and this spot, I
think is one of the trickiest. So not only is
Sadderfield going across across the dugout um, but the offensive
line coach, the quarterback coach, the defensive coordinator, the linebacker coach.
It's really hard to find a motivational edge here because
I think if your Cincinnati, you want to play well
for your new head coach against his former team, and
(05:23):
if you're Louisville, you want to show up your old
head coach for switching side. So again, certain games, the
motivational angle stares you right in the face. I think
Oregon State in Florida is the big one, but this
one I could make a case for both sides, and
the market has kind of been fickle. It's gone from
a pick um to now Louisville about a two and
(05:43):
a half point favorite. But I've seen some Cincinnati money
pop up at points throughout the last week, so it's
not one way traffic. But for the most part, Louisville
about a consensus to two and a half point favorite.
They've been a little bit more of the market, Darling
so far. To this point, nothing may my heart dropped
like huge line movement in Bowl games, because the total
(06:05):
is just plummeted in this one. And I don't know
about you, Jared, but I start it's almost like stuff
starts shaking and I'm looking for a doorway or something
to hold onto, like what is going on in the
earth is moving over here? But the total has dropped
all the way to under forty. It's at thirty nine
and a half right now at bet MGM. And so
when I get any of this big line movement, I'm like,
(06:27):
who's out, Who's out of the game, because it tends
to indicate that's the case here. I'm gonna look this
stet up um and I'll have it for us on
Saturday when games moved by three points or more, or
totals moved by three points or more in Bowl season,
if I recall again, no data right now to back
(06:47):
it up, but conjecture and you know, observation and kind
of my memory of it. The games that got steamed
pretty hard, they all up. Most of those sides ended
up cashing, and it goes against what my style would be,
which is contrarian. You see the line move, there's value
on the other side by low sell high. I think
(07:08):
in Bull season it's really hard, but I throw out
a lot of my classic betting principles that I used
throughout the course of the season, the analytical you know breakdowns,
and then the by low cell high nature because of
just it's really hard to cap where the number should
be with all of the changes and the fluctuations, and
you almost have to be willing to overspend to get
(07:32):
the right side of of of that game. Because I
think the motivational angle mount matters more. And it looks
like weather in this particular game could be a factor.
In Boston on a Saturday morning in the middle of December.
I've never been to Boston in December, but I would
imagine it won't be sunshines and rainbows at Fenway Park
for this game. Probably not. How about it? We look
(07:52):
at the Las Vegas Bowl, Florida against Oregon State, and
it's probably unfair. I think of Oregon State like Army
or Navy right now after they just ran the ball
down Oregon's throat. I know that's unfair, but I'm just
curious we start off there is Oregon is they're gonna
be able to run the ball effectively against Florida. If
(08:13):
they can, they might be able to cover ten points.
Ten points a huge spread in this game. The Beaves
getting some major love from Vegas, but um yeah, it's
about Florida. Can they stop the run because if you've
got that two pronged throwing and running attack from the Beeves,
this could be a nasty spot for Florida here. Yeah,
(08:34):
and in the offshore markets. This line opened at five
and it did not take long. It went from five
two ten in like four hours. I mean, it was immediate,
and I think the people who are in the know.
There's a few of them. I've mentioned them on the
show before, Brad Power's being one. These are notable college
football sharps. Pros that that thousands of dollars on games
(08:57):
the second the line strop because their numbers are so good.
They knew about the Anthony Richardson situation before it was happening.
And we've discussed one of those situations on the show
multiple times. It's Bryce Young in Alabama. We saw the
Alabama line steam down. We'll get to that game in
a couple of weeks, right, But when you have that
insider knowledge, I don't wanna call an insider knowledge, but
when you're when you're ahead of the game and you
(09:18):
get a minus five of the Oregon State man, you're
feeling really good about yourself. Right now at ten eleven
is where we've kind of seen the ceiling here. And
Oregon State can ra on the football very effectively, and
Florida has struggled to stop the run this year. They're
outside the top one twenty in power success, right, meaning
if it's third or fourth and one, Oregon State's gonna
pick up those first downs almost every single time. And
(09:40):
there are sixty percent, right, I mean, you don't see
that in college football unless your army here a Navy, right,
sixty percent run heavy offense. I mean that is a heavy,
heavy load to bear, and I don't know if Florida
is going to be up for this game physically emotionally,
I don't think they are. And if they're not up emotionally,
and organ State's gonna pound the rock a million time
times in this game, you would think that will take
(10:02):
its toll physically. And that's where I think Oregon State
has a big edge. And man, the market's telling you
in an SEC team a double digit dog against the
Pact wall team. Part of me just wants to take
the points out of principle, but again, the steam has
tended to be the right side here and I think
Oregon State will be the right side. Last thing, real fast,
if we just take a quick peek at the college
(10:24):
football playoff matchups. As you said last week, no line
movement in terms of the point spread, seeing a little
bit of movement on the totals. They've both moved in
a point in either direction in both games, but still
seven and a half point favorites those food Gazzy Wolverines.
There plenty of time to uh get in on TCU either.
(10:44):
Plus the points are on the money line. That's where
I'm looking at, and it's to me I'll stand by
my prediction of last week. These you'll if you want
these numbers, you'll be able to get them this week,
You'll be able to get them next week, and you'll
probably even be able to get him the week of
the game. Um. But that's when we might see another
(11:06):
limit expand and some of the bigger money step into
the market and push this towards probably the keys. I
would be willing to bet it closes Georgia seven and
miss and TCU seven like it. It feels like that's
the direction we've been trending in for the last couple
of weeks, but we've hit that lull in the market
now where it's kind of no man's land, and I
think if you really like TCU at seven and a half,
(11:28):
that might be the one that I would bet now
because I could see that hook evaporating quicker than Georgia
getting to seven, if that makes sense, Because TCU has
been the trend to your side, they've been the trend
to your dog, and it looks like seven's kind of
that consensus number, whereas Georgia Ohio State. I think if
it got to seven, you'd see a lot of Ohio
(11:49):
State money step in at seven because every time it's
reached seven, it's reached there a couple of times um.
When it first opened, it's been bought back down very quick.
So I think Georgia is kind of on the fringe.
Let's call it six point seven five, right, and then TCU.
I'm guessing that will be a flat seven come game week.
So if you want the hook with the horn frogs,
I would buy that one relatively sick. By the way,
(12:13):
you just opened a new possibility betting on what the
betting line closes at. How about that whole new world over.
I've got no that's called That's called you just beat
the market long term and you're gonna win, period, and
the story it's emotionless. Take be a robot. Just beat
the market long term, doesn't matter what the final number is.
(12:35):
If you do that a hundred times out of a hundred,
you're gonna probably win those bets. No, no, no, yeah,
I don't know if it's I'm saying it right. We're
betting on what the betting line closes that not what's
the right side, because you're saying seven, so you can
bet on will it be seven? Will it be higher
than that? We can bet on the betting line. What
(12:57):
do you think about that? I mean, I think if
there was a way for us, this is why I'm
glad we don't do shows in person. The side bets
we would make during the commercial breaks, one of us
would be in deep already this year, probably Rich Frankly,
but um, by the way, catch us on Saturday. We'll
have rich Orn Burger Penn State All American does a
(13:20):
great job. Jared Smith from picks wise dot com. I'm
Brian No Saturdays from nine am until noon Eastern time.
We'll get you all set for these Bowl games on
Fox Sports Radio. Earn a fifty dollar bonus by signing
into bet MGM and clicking on refer a friend to
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(13:41):
Bet MGM, the King of sports Books, wanna welcome in
Bill Crack and Burger from crack wins dot com sports handicapper.
He has many thoughts on the NFL this week. He
has many thoughts before the podcast even began, and now
he's gonna have even more thoughts that the podcast is running.
Crack Let's start off Thursday, Night football, a lot of
(14:02):
brock Purty love. My timeline is blowing up. Hey, I
got the Niners plus nine hundred to win the Super Bowl.
I'm just rolling my eyes at this. The Niners are
three point favorites on the road against Seattle. What do
you think about tonight's game in Week fifteen? Listen, when
when everything anything looks good, it looks too good. It
is too good to look at. So you know, I
(14:24):
look at the pre flop. The pre flop line on
this game was three. So think about that. When I
say pre flop, I mean the line look aheadline before
the season started, even even after this season started. People
don't know. Here in Vegas and a couple of different
the apps that came to the new jurisdictions, you can
bet any single week, any team. So every single game
(14:46):
every week is up, uh you know throughout the year.
Uh here in Vegas ahead of time. So look aheadline
on this game was three. Think about that. The look
aheadline on this game was three. That was with that
was the Garoppolo, you know, thinking that he's gonna be
the quarterback. So now the situation is we have this
party who people are really high on. Like you said,
(15:09):
and the line is still free. It it scares me.
It scares me. I I mean I I don't know
that this is a stay away game for me. Um,
you know it's it's a couple of spots. Have three
and a half if I'm looking to down. Here's a
perfect example of a pretty low total forty three. If
you're betting foot this game tonight, which I know most
(15:29):
of you, the most of your d gens are Um.
By the way, we're all dgens and are in special ways.
But um, I'll tell you you have to make sure
if you're betton San Fran you're laying three. If you're
betting Seattle, you're taking three and a half. That's all
I can tell you. It could be that type of
a game where it's gonna be played that close. But um,
I'm kind of staying away from this game. Something's fishing
(15:51):
in this game. Brian, Hey, how about Saturday. We're looking
at the Ravens and the Browns. Browns are favored by
two and a half. You've got your eye on b
more in this one crank. It could be Tyler Huntley
should be hopefully across your fingers. He's hasn't been cleared
yet from concussion protocol, but it's trending in that direction.
Where he will play. If that's the case, would be
(16:13):
Tyler Huntley against DeShawn Watson. And right now Tyler Huntley
is playing as well as Deshaun Watson is, so that's
something to keep in minding that matchup as well. Yeah,
he's going to play the game, of course. Um, Like,
I actually lean Baltimore here, And if he doesn't play
the game, I don't even know who the third string is.
(16:34):
I I've seen the name. I don't just don't know
who he is. I don't want nothing to do with that. So, um,
I think he's going to play. Like his head is
trending in that direction. The lines three or three dog
twenty most most spots bet MGM is actually three flat. Um.
I kind of lean Baltimore here, right, I'm not going
to be on the Cleveland train for a while until
(16:54):
I see more out of Watson. Now. I do know
he did come back last weekending he did play better
than the first game. Uh, there was still a little
rust and even more importantly, U there was some drop passes.
So I'm not gonna blame him. Uh you know, but
then again, they have a center issue there too, where
they're they're having some problems with their their their centers out,
(17:15):
their backup centers in. So that means so much. People
don't realize the value of alignment, especially a center in
in the NFL, so very valuable position, key position. Actually, UM,
I'm gonna lean Baltimore a little bit now done. Listen,
this is like Thanksgiving Day. Um, I'm gonna use Las
Vegas times here, so you have ten am the first game,
(17:37):
one thirty and five fifteen, three different times spreadouts throughout
the day. You just don't have to bet all these games. Guys,
I know it's gonna be fun to do it. You
want to bet it. Look at the betting some player
props looking to bet maybe a first half total or
maybe I even said, you throw a peanut on Baltimore
on plus the three. How about my Dolphins, My Dolphins
(18:00):
heading to Buffalo. Uh, they haven't fared well when the
temperature is forty or below when kickoff starts right there,
eight straight losses we have, Mike McDaniel, the Dolphin said
coach rocking A. I wish it were a colder T
shirt and practice, but the Dolphins, I don't know what
(18:21):
happened last week. Crack against the Chargers, Justin Herbert was fantastic.
That's not a shocker. What was shocking is Miami could
not run the football against a horrible rush defense with
the Chargers. So now heading on the road at Buffalo,
they just don't have momentum heading into this spot. I'll
say that much. They're trending in the wrong direction. You know,
(18:42):
one of the guys I respect out here on his
podcast on Monday, he gave out something that you're not
gonna like the Dolphins to not make the playoffs plus
two fifty. Um, it's a it's a you know, it's
a good plus. As a matter of fact, now I
see the Jets to make the playoffs plus one sixty.
(19:03):
I think it's a good spot to bet both of them.
Maybe maybe bet the Jets plus the one six to
make the playoffs and bet the Dolphins not to make
the playoffs. Get two pluses. Now, this weekends a big weekend, though, Uh,
you know Detroit's playing the Jet so maybe you even
want to wait so you would't know who that number
goes to and if the Jets win that game. Um,
(19:25):
but yeah, Miami going to the Buffalo seven points. I
even see I see one seven and a half on
my screen. I'll beat again. Situational here again, guys, you're
bet in this game. You want to get You want
to do the line shop and to get to seven
and a half. If you're bet in Miami, you want
to lay the seven. If you're bet in Buffalo. So
this year, all these marquee teams, the Buffalo's, the Cleveland's,
(19:48):
the Philadelphia's. I'm not Cleveland, sorry, but the Buffalo's. I'm
at the Buffalo, Kansas City and Philadelphia. Those three teams
are like the big three teams in football. They have
all showed weakness throughout the year and have had streaks
of games where they lost are almost lost. I mean,
I thought Dallas was one of the best teams in
football up until last week. I mean, you know the
(20:10):
Dallas should have lost to the worst team in football
Houston in Dallas. So again, is that any given week
anything cannon will happened. Let me tell you, I'm not
looking at the Lano points on Buffalo, and I know
all that the history of the teams in the weather.
I'm not looking at the Lano point, just like I
said on our our Sunday Countdown the kickoff show before
the end of the game, before the end of the
(20:31):
show last week, it feels like a game. It's so
much fumping with you guys. Um all three big favorite,
big big favorites fade them and you would have been
three and oh as as every team Kansas City, Dallas,
and Buffalo all did not cover fail to cover their
games on Sunday. Yeah, how about the other Saturday game?
(20:51):
Here the line stands out to me. The Colts, which
are obviously grease fire there four eight and one, and
the Cold so are at Minnesota. Minnesota off of a
loss against Detroit, but only a four point favorite. I
just look at the matchup styles make fights cracked, and
Minnesota's past defense is brutal. Is Matt Ryan gonna exploit
(21:15):
a poor past defense? I don't see that happening. And
after an embarrassing loss from Minnesota only favored by four,
I think it's too much skepticism in this particular matchup
from Vegas. What do you think you're You're exactly what
what you're saying is exactly what the Joe public is saying.
Because that the four four it looks so low. This
(21:37):
was like this. This team was literally, uh you know,
picked in the and then and then one of the
top teams in football when they were eight and one
or whatever they were. I mean, and now Indianapolis, which
you just don't know what you're getting with them. You
don't know what you're getting with Indianapolis. You don't know
if you're getting the Indianapolis that almost Philadelphia or you're
(21:59):
geting in the Indianapolis team that has been blown out
in situations this year. You just you just don't know
what team you're gonna get. I mean, the Patriots just
killed them three. I mean, you just don't know that.
How about? But yet they were holding their own when
we were in Mississippi. They were holding their own verse
the Cowboys up until the fourth quarter in Dallas nineteen,
(22:24):
holding their own in that game. And then of course
Dallas exploded for thirty some points in the fourth quarter.
And uh so you just don't know what you're getting
with this team. Um, the Vikings, I'll tell you I
have a future on them to win the Super Bowl
at fifty to one, but I'm not so confident that,
you know, to be blunt, I've seen them there, their schedule,
(22:46):
who they played. Yes they're tenant three now, Yes they're
the NFC North leading team. But I'll tell you one thing,
I don't think they're the best team in the NFC North.
I actually think the Lions. I said it even before
last week's game. I think the Lions are the best
teams of it. And then the Lions, if they only
had a better start, with a couple of those close games,
(23:07):
they would be set for a run at the playoffs.
I just don't know if they can get there now.
It's always great when I hear what you're saying, Brian
is exactly what Joe Public is saying. It's great. I
do a Tiger Woods fist pump like that. My dreams
came true. I hope you don't don't take that as
an insult. It's a very normal things, very normal though.
(23:27):
I'll tell when you're right now looking at that game.
Everyone doesn't think Minnesota should be more over slowly Indianapolis.
Everyone doesn't think even tonight, Sam France would be more
over Seattle. Seattle just lost. They got embarrassed at home
versus to Carolina Panthers. So you gotta put yourself inside
the bookmakers shoes and what what sides are they going
to need? Probably gonna need the Seattle side, but definitely
(23:50):
going to need the Indianapolis side. Yeah, they definitely will
need that. I just don't know if it's gonna work
out for him. We'll see how plays out. You're on
the Falcon Saints first half line. We're at twenty one
right now. What are you see in this one? Crack? Yeah,
bet MGM is so over? I like, I think some
points here in this game Atlanta, New Orleans first half
(24:11):
over game is forty three and a half, forty four.
First of all, for a forty three and a half.
This was one of the first things I looked at
for a forty three and a half or forty four.
I'll look at a game like Campus Incinnati, same exact total.
I'll tell you twenty one and a half the line everywhere,
so twenty one and there's still twenty ones. Like I
(24:32):
said that, bet MGM is about five casinos here in town.
That may not be a key number because you don't
know if these teams are only gonna be throwing touchdowns,
you know, but I still think that, uh, you're gonna
get some points out here at these two teams and listen,
is their playoff hopes that well, I don't know. You
(24:54):
know that with the Buccaneers in the NFC South falling,
they just don't seem like they're uh, you know, they're
definitely not super Bowl bound. They haven't played as well
as of late. Especially anyone can win the NFC South,
that's right, And I say anyone, probably not the Saints,
but Panthers are Falcons absolutely when the NFC South, I
think there's gonna be some points scored here. Um, I'm
(25:17):
hoping the Falcons could come through that. I need them
to actually be though. I'm pretty confident that no oneleans
going to score at least ten points. So I think
we're gonna get that out of both teams, and uh,
you know, maybe a couple of touchdowns here and there,
and I think that over twenty one is probably a
good bet. I'm looking at that right now. By the way,
a couple more that are interesting to me. I love
the late afternoon window Titans at the Chargers. Chargers are
(25:42):
favored by two and a half right now at bet MGM,
So think about this matchup. Crack Tennessee has been brutal
the last three weeks. We just saw the Chargers look
great on Sunday Night Football, but think about this particular matchup.
The Chargers rush defense is bad, and that's the one
thing that the Titans can do very well is run
(26:02):
the football with Derrick Henry. So I'm curious if the
Tennessee Titans can somehow get back on track. Both are
seven and six teams. But it's another spot where I
look at it the other way, where man, the Chargers
are only favored by two and a half at home.
That screams Tennessee to me. And I know you might
not love it heading in. You might not run to
(26:24):
the window like I'm going with Tennessee after what we've seen.
They got kicked in the teep last week against Jacksonville.
I think Tennessee might be the right side. I mean,
just look at tennessee last three games. They they lost
to Jacksonville at home in Tennessee, they lost by five
to the Eagles, so you got the Eagles fourteen to
the Jaguars, and then they lost at home to the Bengals,
(26:48):
which I'm high on the Bengals, and everyone's high on
the Bengals right now. They lost by four to the Bengals.
They haven't won a game literally and almost someone. Um,
they did beat the Packers, but the Packers aren't the
Packers who they used to be. I am just probably
staying far away from this from this game. But however, um,
(27:08):
you know that I wasn't impressed with the Chargers now
the Chargers now beat Miami. Like I said, trending in
some different directions here. I think this game is probably relyned.
Right at three, I think I think Charges being home
three points. But then again, home field advantage is not
what it used to be in the NFL. As a
(27:28):
matter of fact, I'm gonna say home field advantage is
nothing like it was even five years ago. In the NFL.
We have a lot of teams, like like the Raiders,
who are bringing a lot of opposite opposition fans. We
have I seen, I mean I actually seen Houston fans
in the stadium even though it's in the same state
(27:49):
of Texas with Dallas last week. Um, it's it's not
like it used to be Tampa Bay. You'll see Cincinnati
fans in the in the stadium. Chargers, I don't know
so much, so but listen, I'm sorry, I'm sorry, l
A I've been to a lot of your games. You
guys just aren't You aren't guys that like like hardcore fans.
(28:10):
It seems like to me the almost fair weather in
l A. People leave. I've been the Dodger games where
they their teams losing my two runs and everyone walks
out in the eighth end and go, let's beat the traffic.
That's not a fan. I stay at the whole game,
the entire game. I'm a fan of the game. I'll
put up with the traffic if I though, I'm a
fan of a team. So uh, this particular game, like
(28:31):
I said, it is three at most spots. If you're
saying two and a half, might be two and a
half minus some juice at mgm um, It's probably a
game I'm staying away from right now. I don't have
an opinion on the side or a total, but it'll
be interested in the city. It's probably a more important
game for Tennessee, who has lost three in a row.
I'll tell you that I would pick at the over.
(28:54):
I pick at the over as well because the Chargers, again,
I'm surprised they played so well offensively against the Dolphins,
but their defense is so banged up and they're starting
to roll on offense, so I think the over could
hit as well. Last one cracks Sunday Night Football. You
got your eyes on this one Giants at the Commanders,
and you're not only looking at just week fifteen, You're
(29:16):
you're looking at the Giants season win total. What do
you see in this week and beyond for the Giants. Yeah,
I bet over at the beginning of the season under
under under seven and a half for a large amount
of money on the Giants, and it looked like I
was gonna easily lose my money. I have a chance
actually to win that now. So, um, they'd have to
lose the rest of their games, but their schedule really besides,
(29:40):
I think they're playing the Cults at home if they
if the Colts win that game, that I have a
chance to still win my bet. So Giants haven't looked
that good of lately. Have two different teams here and
going in two different directions. Washington has been playing pretty good.
Of course, that big Eagles victory in Philadelphia. Um, and
they've played good. And I'll tell you, I think there
(30:01):
are nice odds to go to the playoffs. I think
they're there. They have insane odds. Actually I've seen. Yeah,
it's still there. Oh my god. I mean, I know
it's a crazy bet, but you just want to throw
not even a peanut. You want to throw a peanut
shell on maybe the Commanders to win, uh to actually
to actually win the the NFC at fifty to one.
(30:23):
I think it's really just you know it, throw twenty
bucks on to win a thousand MUCKs or something. It's just,
like I said, something that looks like it could be
a good bet. However, this is gonna shock you now
saying all this stuff. Teams going in two different directions,
I wouldn't be looking at the lake points on Washington
and the spot old rival game, old rivalry. I would
(30:43):
even maybe looked there's a couple of fives here in town.
I would even maybe look towards the Giants. I did
not bet the game, and I probably won't bet it.
But just for the people out there, UM, just know
where you're betting here. You're bet an old old rivals.
You're betting um teams that are going into from directions.
But this is a very big game for the Giants.
I would expect them to keep it closer. Even though
(31:05):
I hope they don't for my future is bet. You know,
I hate to end the podcast on a sour note here, crack,
but this is the crazy thing with the Giants tie
where they are seven five and one right now, the
best you could do on your season bet is push
because right on the seven and a half. But they
technically have seven and a half wins right now. That's
(31:26):
not the way it works with the sports bookstof with
the tie. Yeah, but tie if you if you if
you have if they have seven wins for the year.
Even though it's a tie, it's not a win, and
you still get paid on the under. But the it's
I don't know how it works in Vegas, but a
tie is half a win and half a loss, like literally,
so they have half a win right there. They have
seven and a half right now. Your point, Your point
(31:48):
makes valid sense though I never thought of that, Brian.
But unfortunately that's not the way the bookmakers in Vegas
work there. They pay you on the nitor. Wow, have
you had that happened before it? I have it and
by Sunday I'll have the answer. Every book does that,
but I'm pretty I'm pretty sure every book pays you
(32:08):
on the under seven and a half. As long as
they have seven wins, that the pie doesn't mean anything.
Can you imagine if the Giants lose their final four
games and you run to the betting window to cash
your Giants season under and they're like, you actually push,
here's your your money back. Yeah, it can happen, but
(32:30):
I don't think you can get I think I'm I
think I'm okay there. I don't know. We'll see, We'll
see how it goes. Hey, check out the problem. I know.
I hope you do. I hope you at least get
the cash back that you put down on the Giant
season win total for sure. Be sure to check out
the new looking features in the bed MGM app. It's
fast and easy access to the sports you love, whether
it's live betting, the Daily Lions Boost, or the cash
(32:52):
out feature. New users can use the code countdown for
a special offer. All right Sunday check us out. Bill
Crack and Burger from crack Winds dot com. Jeff Schwartz,
eight year NFL veteran, I'm Brian Noe, will be with
you on Fox Sports Radio ten am until one pm
Eastern Time, leading right up to kick off. Check us,
(33:13):
then
Fox Sports Radio News
Host
Jonas Knox
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