Fox Sports' Countdown Presented by BetMGM

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
This is Fox Sports Countdown.

Speaker 2 (00:04):
We're setting you up for the sports weekend and covering
all the action from the stadiums to the arenas. This
is Fox Sports Countdown, brought to you by bet MG
Maked Legendary.

Speaker 1 (00:22):
The Countdown starts.

Speaker 2 (00:23):
Nine live from the Fox Sports Radio studios. Here's Brian no,
Rich Hornberger and Jared Smith.

Speaker 3 (00:33):
Oh what is going on?

Speaker 4 (00:34):
Welcome in, Happy Saturday to you as we uh Man
got a lot of ball to talk about today, ball,
of course, meanting football. All rational thinking count beings come ball.
It's football, right right, you're rational thinking human being right there.

Speaker 3 (00:50):
So we're just normal guys. It's ball. We're talking ball
and then some then some hardwood.

Speaker 5 (00:57):
Some hoops. Who I like that?

Speaker 4 (01:00):
Yeah, we got hoops. We got college hoops.

Speaker 3 (01:02):
Like a little NBA.

Speaker 5 (01:04):
You know.

Speaker 4 (01:05):
Actually, you know, I'm gonna surprise you guys a little
bit here because I know you ever you have a dog? Rich,
I know Jared has a dog. Do you have a dog?

Speaker 3 (01:12):
Yeah, I'll send you guys a picture of the dog
we're fostering. We've got this giant, like sixty pound golden
Doodle husky mix.

Speaker 5 (01:22):
Oh wow.

Speaker 3 (01:23):
Yeah, we've had her for about a week a week yesterday.

Speaker 5 (01:28):
Congratulations, Yeah, thank you.

Speaker 3 (01:30):
Yeah, we're you know, we're we're we're waiting for the
dog to find their forever home. But while she while
we got her. You know, the kids love having that
energy around the house. Our old dog had passed away
last summer, and so it's been that long since we uh,
since we've been able to welcome a new puppers in

(01:52):
our life. We got this one right now. And her
name's Athena, like the goddess of war. Yeah. Yeah, and
this this this sucker is I mean, she's she is
knocking the kids over and wrestling, playing fetch and doing
all the things. So we're having a lot of fun
with her. Yeah, we got to talk for now.

Speaker 4 (02:12):
Yeah, okay, well good, well I bring that up because
you know those evil owners that will will like place
a treat at the end of the dog's nose and
just be like not yet, not yet, Fido, not yet,
and the dogs just looking cross eyed at this treat.

Speaker 3 (02:27):
Like, oh my gosh, yeah.

Speaker 4 (02:30):
That's what I'm gonna do this morning. No, yeah, yeah,
we got a blockbuster trade in football, but we had
Jason Tatum returned to the Boston Celtics ten months removed
from achilles surgery ruptured his achilles. He's back after ten
months of rehab and he made his return with the

(02:52):
Celtics yesterday. They dusted the MAVs and he was Tatum
a little rusty right, missed his first six shots, then
made his next five shots, scored fifteen points, had twelve rebound,
seven assists. Overall, is successful return for Jason Tata. But
I just love the dynamic here of not so much
the risk factor with injury, but the risk factor with Hey,

(03:15):
the Celtics have the second best record in the East.
They've been playing great. Now all of a sudden, here's Tatum,
a five time you know, all star that's coming back,
and like, how's this gonna work? And if they hit
a little bit of a rough patch, it's like, well,
it's because Tatum's back, you know. I just love the
dynamic the whole thing. Obviously they need him for the
playoff push. To make real noise, you need Tatum. They

(03:37):
just got an All NBA guy, like, hey, they got
the second best record in the East. So I just
love the whole dynamic for the Celtics the East in general.
The playoffs are gonna be a lot of fun. But
Tatum is back.

Speaker 3 (03:50):
Yeah, Tatum looks like a guy who's had a major
injury that he's coming back from. And what I mean
by that is no slight to him, because I've done
this a few times over in my playing career, you know,
And and I realized the NFL is very different from
from the NBA, and I realized that my injuries were

(04:13):
very different also. You know, I've had a bicepsu re
attachment and shoulder surgeries that I've recovered from, and you know,
clavigal resections and things like that. Right these the some
of them feel relatively minor now looking back on them.
Some of them really major surgeries that had to take

(04:33):
a long on ramp to get back from.

Speaker 5 (04:36):
Uh.

Speaker 3 (04:36):
But but all the same feeling. Really, when they initially happen,
a part of your identity disappears with the fact that
you've got to step away from the game for a
little bit. And when you associate yourself as a blank
and you can no longer be that, it's it's mentally

(04:57):
very difficult. So he associates himself as a basketball player
like that is Jason Tatum and Jason Datum. After your
Achilles tre you're no longer a basketball player. You're a patient.
You're you're the target of discussion for what you used
to be able to do, but you're unsure that you'll

(05:18):
ever be able to do at the same level. Again,
there's a lot of mental jumping jacks that and somersaults
that you have to go through in order to get
from point A to point B. And he looked tentative
at times, and that's obvious, and it comes with the territory.
And he looked rusty, like you mentioned. But I feel

(05:39):
like the biggest part of his journey is the mental part.
And I could tell a couple of times it looked
like he was ready to go up for a lob
and maybe get a big, you know, highlight moment with
a dunk, and you could tell he's just not one
hundred percent trusting his leaping abilities, so he kind of
short hopped it and then you know, you know, it's

(06:01):
like those little moments you could just see, you could
just see a little hesitance there. So it's gonna be
a while before Jason Tatum is the superman, one hundred percent,
you know, all star, all everything player that he was
prior to the Achilles here, but it's very good to
see him back on the court.

Speaker 6 (06:19):
I was surprised. No minutes restriction, at least that's what
I was told. That's what I was reading, went over
all of his props. So the market, you know, kind
of was And that's one of those situations where usually
when a star player like that returns from an injury,
the market, will we call it half baked what their
numbers really are, Maybe not half, maybe like three quarters

(06:39):
baked of what the props.

Speaker 5 (06:42):
Would typically be.

Speaker 6 (06:43):
But I mean, just looking at the box score, I mean,
you know, fifteen points, twelve, rebound seven, it'ss plus twenty
and the plus minus category. I mean, I know the
minutes weren't as voluminous as maybe you would expect a
full Jason Tatum workload to be.

Speaker 4 (06:58):
But that's not a bad night.

Speaker 5 (06:59):
Six sixteen from the field.

Speaker 6 (07:00):
Obviously not you know, a little rusty, but in his
first game back from ten months. And I think that's
the key is will we see those minutes increase, Probably,
but I would imagine that it'll be relatively light over.

Speaker 5 (07:15):
The next month.

Speaker 6 (07:15):
Right, we got about a month left in the season,
and obviously Boston will be in the postseason. They are
top one of the top seeds in the East. I
think the Pistons will get the top seed in the East,
but it'll be, you know, somewhere in that two three
range for Boston, and it's setting up a pretty interesting
playoff run because right now in the Eastern Conference, bet
MGM's got Boston as the favorite. So certainly the market

(07:37):
thinks that this is pretty substantial. It's not just gonna
be him coming back and going through the motions. I
think the market believes that he is going to be
at full strength or as close to full strength as
you could possibly beat ten months remove from an achilles injury.
So certainly shakes things up, especially when you see guys
like Kevin Durant that has taken longer to recover from
injuries like this. I think it was a surprise based

(07:59):
on the reaction of how quickly he returned, and then
you watched the game last night, and I agree it
wasn't one hundred percent, but the fact that he was
let's say, sixty five percent of Jason Tatum seventy percent
ten months removed is probably one hundred percent more than
what we expected, right, Brian, Like I just it feels
like it's very soon and it's definitely gonna have an

(08:20):
impact on Boston's situation down the stretch.

Speaker 4 (08:23):
Yeah, it was Listen, it was good for him to
get his bequet a little bit last night. You know,
that's really what it was. It was a soft launch
against the Dallas Mavericks, you know, and just his style
of game is, you know, he doesn't rely on this
raw explos the explosiveness like say Anthony Edwards or like
Derreck Rose when he was back in the NBA with

(08:44):
the Bulls. You know, just raw athleticism attacking the rack.
That's just not what Jason Tatum does. He's more of
a skill type player. You just mentioned Kevin Durant, a
little more like Kevin Durant, or I would say like
James Harden a little bit right, He's more of a
skilled player than this raw athletic. So I think that
is helpful with him coming back from an achilles injury.
He still got to find his rhythm and it's timing

(09:05):
and all that, and he did like he Barkley pointed
it out. I noticed it live too, where he went
up for his first dunk as a putback dunk and
he kind of hung on the rim and then he
landed on his good foot and then like he doesn't
quite trust himself yet, like a fast break opportunity. He
kind of looked like an NFL player getting out of
bed on a Monday morning.

Speaker 3 (09:26):
Kind of like, oh gosh, they're gonna.

Speaker 4 (09:28):
Get the newspaper in the first couple of steps, like
really slow, really tentative, but hopefully he'll get back up
to speed. You can't expect him to just pick up
where he left off, right, It's gonna take a little
bit of time, but great, I think, I think great
first signs of Tatum. And he saw the skill. He
hit a three in the corner right after the put
back dunk, and you saw him hit those five shots

(09:49):
in a row. So it's not gonna take that long
where it's like it was really rusty him missing his
first six shots, and all of a sudden you're like, okay,
he looks a little bit more like Tatum now. And
that was the first game. So and I short changed
him by the way, six time All Star, five oh show,
yeah right, but wa hey we go we'll just speaking

(10:10):
of like dipping our beaks in the waters here. We'll
have much more on this but we go from a
five time All NBA to a five time pro bowler.
Max Crosby edge Rusher got traded from the Raiders to
the Ravens two first round picks. The Ravens getting very
aggressive over here. They they gave up their first round

(10:32):
pick this year and then next year's draft.

Speaker 3 (10:35):
And I do like.

Speaker 4 (10:36):
Lamar Jackson's tweet was pretty good. This is before the
trade happened yesterday. Lamar just tweeted a smiley face and
it was a jiff of Denzel from training day when
he was like, boom, he knew, yeah, oh, he definitely knew.
That was a couple hours before it broke. But first impressions,
Max Crosby going to the Ravens for two first round picks.

(10:57):
Don't forget they drafted Lamar with the first round. At
the end of the first round, they drafted Tyler Linderbaum
toward the end of the first round. They drafted Kyle
Hamilton in the middle of the first round. They give
up two first round picks for Max Crosby, who I love,
but he's been banged up. That's a heavy price tag.
What do you think about this trade?

Speaker 3 (11:14):
Rich? Well, I do think that the Ravens are looking
to fix one of the most glaring issues they've had
over the past couple seasons now, and it's their defense,
which is weird to say. With the John Harbaugh team,
usually defense and special teams are really really buttoned up,
and they've come unwound a little bit. And one of

(11:37):
the most premier positions in terms of salary and impact
on the defensive side of the ball is pass rush.
Max Crosby win healthy and you'd like to assume health,
although you pointed out that he's been banged up through
portions of his career. Is one of those guys who
can absolutely tilt the field in your direction with how

(11:58):
much he harazed his quarterbacks. I can't stress to you
enough how important pressures are. QB pressures are one of
those stats that gets really ignored widely by fans, and
his pressure rate is sensational. He factors on so many

(12:19):
plays even if he's not sacking the quarterback. The quarterback
has an awareness that Max is close, and when that happens,
they start rushing their progressions, they start rushing their throws.
They'll change their arm motions so the arm instead of
coming out pure over the top like they want to
because there's a helmet in their way. Their release point

(12:40):
is different because they want to avoid slamming a hand
into the back of a helmet, or they got to
throw sidearm because he's coming and they can't. He can
he can be seen, right, you know. So that pressure
and that awareness that Mad Max is bearing down on you.
It factors in so many games that he's been involved in.
And so I think the Ravens, even though, like you said,

(13:02):
they've been good drafting players, if you think about just
the draft in general being a crapshoot, and they've missed
on some too. You know, high draft picks. When you
give give up two for a known quantity in the NFL,
guy who win healthy plays at a Pro Bowl, all
pro level, in my opinion, you spent well. So he's

(13:25):
just got to stay healthy for them. He's got to
remain the productive player defensively he's been. And the Ravens again,
they're doing this because they have to. Their defense has
been a problem.

Speaker 6 (13:35):
Travis Jones, Mike Green, Draymont Jones, those are the guys
that led the Ravens and pressures last season. I think
they had one of the lowest sack rates in the league. Yeah,
so yeah, obviously it boosts that core immediately. Now, every
time there's a trade, the first thing that comes to

(13:56):
MIC is typically this doesn't get announced right away.

Speaker 5 (13:58):
In this case it did. What'd you give up for him?

Speaker 3 (14:02):
Like?

Speaker 5 (14:02):
That's always right?

Speaker 6 (14:04):
Everything is relative. We talk about this in gambling all
the time. It's all relative. I don't care how good
the team is. What's the price, like how many points
are we laying today for this really good team? In
this case, it's a pretty steep price, right, it's the
fourteenth pick in this year's draft and the first rounder
next year. Obviously next year's first rounder. We don't know
what that price is. Ravens make the playoffs, it's not

(14:25):
as bad they missed the playoffs like they did this year,
and it's another top fifteen, top sixteen pick, Well, then
maybe it's not the best of deals for Baltimore. So
I think the jury is still out on how good
of a deal this is. If the Ravens make the
playoffs next year and they get back to that elite form, right,

(14:47):
they've got a new head coach, you new everything basically
in Baltimore new regime, then I will get back on
the air, and you know, eight months or so, nine
months whenever the you know, we know what the playoff
situation is for Baltimore, I'll say, okay, yeah, that's a
pretty good deal. Max Crosby played well this year, Ravens
are back in the playoffs.

Speaker 5 (15:04):
I would say that's a pretty good deal.

Speaker 6 (15:08):
I don't know yet, and I think the one thing
that is positive for the Raiders right now, you have
the number one pick in the draft. You're gonna take Mendoz.
I think that's pretty settled. This is a good year
for edge rushers, really good year, and I think that's
one of the reasons why this deal maybe is not
as on paper you're thinking yourself, oh man, the Raiders
are giving up Max Crosby. Yeah, but maybe they get

(15:29):
one of these guys in the draft that all immediately
replaces that production. So I do think there the jury's
still out. Obviously, Crosby's the headliner, and that's gonna be
what we're gonna be talking about next year, because I
don't think the Raiders are gonna be a Plaoff contender
next year.

Speaker 5 (15:45):
But I do think they can replace his production pretty quickly.

Speaker 6 (15:49):
With what they be able to get with that fourteenth pick,
and then we'll see what the Ravens do next year,
and then again in about nine months or so, will
reassess this scenario and say, yeah, you know what, maybe
that was a good deal. Maybe that was a bad
deal based on the price. But it's always relative, Brian,
based on the price, I do think it was a
fair deal on the surface right now, but that could
change next year based.

Speaker 5 (16:10):
On what that first round pick is for the Raiders.

Speaker 4 (16:13):
Yeah, it's fair. You know, it's a blend of the
known and the unknown. The known as Max Crosby and
you know, you can you can guess Tomate roughly, you
know where the draft pick is going to be. But
to your point, it's an unknown. I just it flashed
into my head. You go back to the Bryce Young trade,
remember between the Panthers and the Bears, And at the

(16:35):
time you're thinking, wow, aggressive Carolina, alright, I like aggressive moves.
And then they bottomed out. They they gave up the
number one overall pick in the next year's draft because
they they were so bad. Right, So we're not anticipating
the Ravens being the worst team in the league. But
to Jared's point, you don't know where that first round

(16:55):
pick in next year's draft is going to be, and
so that unknown element is pretty interesting when you're g
one instant reaction like this team won, this team gets
a beat, plus that team get It's like the unknown
of that twenty twenty seven draft pick. It throws a
little a little element in the equation that you have
to consider. We've got more on this. There are more

(17:16):
layers to get to that we want to dive in,
so we will pick this back up. We've got I
was gonna say, We've got Tyler Linderbaum, We've got Rich Hornberger.
Former Bets State and All American Jared Smith, FSR betting analyst,
I'm Brian No. Register with bet mgm to get instant
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(17:39):
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teams that are in go for It mode? But what

(18:02):
mode are their trade partners in? We'll get to that
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(19:11):
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MGM app All right, so more layers on Max Mad
Max Over here is Max Crosby gets traded to the
Baltimore Ravens for two first round picks.

Speaker 3 (19:28):
Two.

Speaker 4 (19:28):
I'll give you two thoughts here. I could give you
twenty seven. I'll limit myself to two, okay, because I
don't want to talk for twenty seven minutes and then
you know, you guys are looking at me like is
it my turn? My turn yet? Like no, all right, cool,
there's more one. I'm happy for Max, you know, like
Max has been such a great player and he's just
been wasting away with the Raiders. By the way, your

(19:50):
metal nugget of the day nail Bomb, the little side
project of the former suppulturist singer Max Max Cavalira, and
we got Max Crosby, we got Max Cavili but wasting away.
You check it out from nail Bomb if you ever
want to get down with some weird off the wall
metal but he was wasting away with the Raiders over there.
Great player, and you know, all right, cool, we won

(20:11):
three games this year. I will get him next year
we won four games, all right, cool, we're killing it now,
you know. For him to go to the Ravens and
have a real chance at success, I'm happy for Max.
The other thing is the Steam. Another situation with Steam
that's completely wrong in the wrong direction. Remember it was

(20:33):
this past week. The Steam was all about Max getting
traded to the Bears, you know, like the betting odds
flip flopped all of a sudden, the Bears are a
huge favorite. And then yesterday there was a rumor that
the Eagles were making Jalen Carter available, and all of
a sudden in some of these predictive markets, well the Eagles,

(20:53):
they're the favorite now. And it's just another instance of
no one knows anything, you know what I mean. Like
if someone just bets the Bears and then they're like,
oh wow, the odds moved a little bit, and then
more people bet the Bears, and all of a sudden
there's a race to bet the Bears. He doesn't end
up with the Bears.

Speaker 3 (21:09):
It was funny.

Speaker 4 (21:09):
There was a tweet at twelve thirty one yesterday, okay,
yesterday afternoon, and it just had the breakdown of a
predictive market and the percentage chance or the bets that
were at that time. So there were thirty percent of
the money was on the Eagles, twenty six percent was
on the Bears. You keep going to stays with the Raiders,

(21:30):
goes to the Cowboys at the end Ravens eight percent,
he went to the Ravens. You know, So it's in
markets like this, be very careful about this theme. Oftentimes
it's completely misleading.

Speaker 3 (21:43):
Yeah, I completely agree with you. You know, the reality is
if you're trying to if you're trying to look at
something and make sense of it from a future standpoint,
you better be one hundred or sent like ready for
the retribution, because there's there's no way to say for sure.

(22:06):
Now obviously, when I look at when I look at
life through the lens of how how much a team
is going to be affected by a trade. For example,
talking about Max or you know, like we were moments ago,
or talking about Trent mcduffey or anybody, you're you're going
to have those moments where you say, well, I mean goodness,

(22:29):
gracious like I I mean this, this could be this
could be huge, this could be everything, or it could
be a situation where a guy walks through the door,
slips on a banana peel, gets injured immediately and doesn't
have a firm impact. You know, So through the lens
of and Jared, I'll let you sort of volley on

(22:50):
the side of the betting expertise here. I mean, for
through the lens of a better I have a hard
time looking at a singular whether it be a draft pick,
even if it feels like a monumental one, or a
trade in the offseason, and say that's the data point
that I'm going to now push all my chips in on.

(23:11):
What what do you evaluate when you're looking at placing
money on a future's bet?

Speaker 6 (23:16):
Jared, I'm well, there's two things to unpack here. First
of all, those markets are unique. They're very illiquid. What
do I mean by that? You can't bet into them
too much? You know, there's very small limits on them
where usually you know, if you want to bet on
the NFL money line on a Sunday, you walk up
to bet MGM, you walk up to mandol A, you
go to the count, you can drop thousands of dollars,

(23:38):
it won't move the need a at all. You bet
one hundred dollars into something like that, and all of
a sudden, it's going to move the market because it's
again a very ill liquid market. So the odds percentages right,
who's betting what? It is not as relevant as it
would be on an NFL Sunday. It's just it's not
something that I look into a whole lot. So that's
the first part of it where I'm not as interested

(24:00):
in who's betting what. I'm more interested in who's not
betting things. Because the second part of that is these
little insider news dumps we get, right, Oh, this team
wants to trade this player for this this team's interested here.
You have to look beyond that. This is lying season
in the NFL. Every piece of insider information you get

(24:24):
you should be highly skeptical about because you have to
consider the source. For example, if the Raiders are interested
in getting more back for Max Crosby, don't you think
that they're gonna get all these offers and they're gonna
be like, h we're getting.

Speaker 5 (24:41):
This from the Eagles and the Bears.

Speaker 6 (24:44):
Maybe the Raiders are the ones leaking that information about
the offers that they're getting because they want Baltimore to
up the offer. So I think you just have to
be very skeptical. We're gonna hear a lot about this
over the next month. Oh, this player is a perfect
fit for this team. Where's the information coming from. Perhaps
it's coming from a source that would actually prefer another

(25:08):
team to hear that so they can be more aggressive,
or they're trying to throw that team off the scent.
We saw this a few years ago. Remember the Will
Levis scenario. How about the Shador Sanders scenario from last year.
I remember he was gonna be a first round pick.
The Will Levis one is really interesting because and I
actually tweeted this yesterday and Peter Schreeger responded to it,

(25:28):
and no knock on Peter, fantastic reporter, but he kind
of got, you know.

Speaker 5 (25:32):
The wool pulled over his eyes here. Oh, the Colts
are gonna take Will Levis with the fourth pack.

Speaker 4 (25:36):
Hey guys, Hey, Will Levis canna be a fourth pack?

Speaker 6 (25:39):
Yeah, that didn't happen. They were looking at Anthony Richardson
the whole time. They didn't want anybody else to know
they were looking at Richardson, even though Jim or say
may God rest his soul, came out and said it,
the reports were they were looking at Levis. So you
just have to be very skeptical when you hear this
stuff from the insiders, because they're getting fed this information

(26:00):
from official team sources, and why would an official team
source reveal what they're actually trying to do. They're trying
to manipulate the market. So I'm just skeptical about all
this stuff. And you know this team's playing, you know,
this team's looking at this player, this team's going to that.
Because it's just you have to consider what is the
upside to actually leaking the real information.

Speaker 4 (26:21):
Yeah, it's it's a little bit of that, and it's
a little bit of the public just trying to connect
dots and be ahead of where the news ends up,
you know what I mean. And sometimes there's this race to, oh,
someone knows something, and it's like, no, they're just they're
just betting the Eagles, hoping that they're right, you know
what I mean, Like it doesn't mean that they have

(26:41):
some sort of great insider information. It reminds me a
lot of you think about the NFL Awards, our NFL
Honors show right where they name all the award winners
and all that. The day of there was this mass
movement in the offensive.

Speaker 5 (26:57):
Rookie of the Year market.

Speaker 4 (26:58):
Yeah, he roto Tteroah McMillan, the Panthers wide receiver. He was,
you know, for weeks, this huge favorite minus two thousand,
minus three thousand something, insane where he got up to
and all of a sudden, there was this massive movement,
this huge steam with Tyler Shock, the Saints quarterback, and

(27:20):
that the odds like it got closer and closer and
closer and closer to even money. It didn't quite get there,
but huge movement. And then it was like McMillan Teteroa
won in a landslide. So it's like it was just
all steam, based on nothing. It's based on nothing but movement,
and you're sitting there like, whoa holy cow, this guy
was plus whatever. I don't know what Tyler Shuck was

(27:42):
at the most. Let's just say it was plus nine hundred.
Now he's plus one sixty. Someone knows something, man, I'm
gonna bet Tyler Shuck and it's like, no, no one
knows anything, man, It's just blind steam, you know, it happens.
So it's something to keep in mind.

Speaker 3 (27:56):
Yeah, you're throwing a dart at a dartboard from across
a room that you've never been in with your eyes
closed and the lights off, like you really And by
the way, the dark board is on an ee robot
with a pedestal like it's so you're trying to hit
a moving target in the dark. It's not gonna happen.
It's it's not gonna happen. Here's here's my thought process again.

(28:22):
Not only can I not really see great what do
you want to call it certainty in placing a futures
bet on a singular data point if we're talking about
a trade that has already been executed. But this idea
of trusting the anonymous source who says that this team

(28:42):
may be interested in player X, and here's all the
compelling reasons why. And then you see all the super
salutes in the fan base on the interwebs, connecting all
the dots that aren't really there, you know, fuzzy connections.
His aunt lives in the Bay Area.

Speaker 4 (28:59):
Yeah, yeah, to San Francisco, you know, like college coaches, right,
likebody bought a wall at in Austin Texas. He's coming
to technical it.

Speaker 3 (29:09):
Was rattlesnake leather. We know he's going to be you
know so, but look, the reality. The reality is if
you want to put smart money on something, you wait
until the picture gets clear. Now, is that the fun
way to do it? No, because maybe you know, you're
a casual better and you're in Vegas this weekend or

(29:31):
you know whatever, like you want I get it and
and hey, you know it's your money. You could do
what you want to do with it. But in terms
of you know, making a making sense of a bet
or making a good decision, I guess if you want
to call it that from a financial standpoint, if you
really want to try to win, but operating under the

(29:52):
assumption that this one data point is going to be
the key that turns the lock open anyways, is probably
a a fool's Errand yeah, you're.

Speaker 6 (30:02):
Not gonna make much money in these markets again, you
just it's just because you just can't put down much
on it, Like I don't know what the exact limits were.

Speaker 5 (30:09):
These markets are only available.

Speaker 6 (30:10):
At certain shops at certain times. And then it actually
reminds me of the draft. So the NFL Draft, and
we've talked about this doing the show for a while now.
The NFL draft has used to be a fine, fantastic
money making opportunity because when COVID happened and we were
looking for things to bet on and the draft happened,
it that's when all the markets became like readily available.

(30:33):
It was right when passed, what was repealed the year after,
and you know, twenty twenty happened March, and then the
draft happens in April, and you know, you got Goodell
sitting in his basement. Everyone's looking for something to bet on,
and the books were just dropping all these kinds of markets.
And for the next year or so, the draft was
a fantastic betting opportunity.

Speaker 5 (30:49):
And it reminds me Brian of.

Speaker 6 (30:51):
The free agency situation, because you're not betting on is
the ball gonna bounce this way or the other, or
is this raft gonna call this stupid penalty that's gonna
cost you your bet. It's all information and if you
have good information, you're going to win unless Goodell trips
on his way up to the you know, you know,
to the counter to get to to get to the card,
like this team's taking this player. But now because we've

(31:12):
kind of pushed back a little bit with the limits
and what markets are being offered in the draft, it's
not as good of a money making opportunity. The limits
are significantly lower.

Speaker 3 (31:22):
The books were.

Speaker 6 (31:23):
Getting killed for like two years. The books got absolutely
murdered in the draft, and now they've responded, right, it's
like the point counterpoint, the pendulum has swung back to
where it's it's harder to bet the draft.

Speaker 5 (31:34):
Now. That's how I feel about these free agent markets.
It's just you're betting it into a.

Speaker 6 (31:39):
Very ill liquid market with not a lot of opportunity
because the limits are lower, and it's just it's not
something that I like to bet on. I would prefer
to be a little bit more traditional and get into
more you know, who's going to win, what's the over
under props, et cetera. But I understand why people like
to do it because it's fun. You do feel like
you're surelock comes like inspector Gadget with the you know,

(32:01):
trying to okay the microfying or the magnifying glass, like,
is this going.

Speaker 5 (32:06):
To be the one strand of information that gets me
my win.

Speaker 6 (32:10):
It's just it's not a big money making opportunity. You
don't see the professional gambers like Crack will never be
betting this stuff. It's not something that they like to
get involved in because of the limitations that are, you know,
not available to them.

Speaker 4 (32:23):
It's almost I don't know if you guys will agree
with this, but to me, it's almost like in game betting,
meaning like if let's just say, let's take college basketball
for instance, or the NBA especially, sometimes the best time
to bet on a team is when things look the worst,
you know what I mean, Like, yeah, like right, you're like,

(32:46):
holy cow, they just got Kansas. The other night, They're
at Arizona State. Kansas could not score in the first
half to save their lives, right, they scored like twenty
points in the first half, and they're plus twelve and
a half in the game. They're twenty at halftime, and
it's like, now's the best time to bet Kansas. And
it's just like are you watching this game right now?

(33:07):
And it's like, yeah, that's how it works. But sometimes
with these markets where the odds flip flop and all
of a sudden the Bears are the favorite, that's the
best time to not bet the Bears, you know, but
the tricky part is you want to have some sort
of information, some sort of angle, like other than man,
I'm just kind of fading this theme. It's like, well,
who you gonna fade it with? You still got to

(33:28):
pick the team that the guy ends up with. So
I think a lot of it is like casino gambling.
You know my theory on casino gambling, You bet your
game of choice is the game that you initially have
success in, you know what I mean, Like, Yeah, I
love craps. I had success like the first time I
played craps, so I'm like, Craps is awesome. I didn't
have success playing Roulette the first time, so I'm like

(33:49):
Roulette sucks.

Speaker 3 (33:50):
I don't like.

Speaker 4 (33:51):
So it's kind of the same thing. If you're more
of like a sides or totals got you probably had
some success early on. If you tried one of these
I don't know, like free agency or trade markets and
you swung and miss, You're like, it's dumb, I'm not
doing that anymore, you know. So that happens a lot
in sports betting.

Speaker 3 (34:07):
Yeah, it is a unique thing to get used to,
you know, And I think a lot of I don't
want to say, Uh, the way I'll frame it is
younger betters, you know, less experienced betters. People are new
to the apps, who are you know, obviously of legal age,
but they're they're using it for the first time. Are
are coming from the world of fantasy football, if we're

(34:30):
talking football, right, They're coming from the world of you know,
some of these apps that only allow you to pick
basically prop parlays in the betting parlance, you know, and
so when you're used to picking stats and you've had
a little taste of that, you know, I feel like
we're we're going to have a generation of betters who

(34:53):
are more interested in more exotic bets than sides and totals.
So I do think that these markets, they may expand
you know, they become, may become even more exotic than
they currently are, you know what I mean. And obviously
there's a lot of different there's a lot of variety
now when it comes to the type of of betting

(35:13):
you can do. And I don't think that's like the
genies have a bottle, so to speak. So I don't
think it's going to get any less. I think it'll
be more. I think it'll be even more experimental. So yeah,
the traditional you know, professional sports better, like like a
Bill Krackenberger, is going to stay away from markets like these.

(35:35):
That doesn't mean that they're not going to be insanely
popular markets in terms of volume. They may not have
the same handle, you know, in terms of per bet basis,
but they'll have a tremendous amount of volume because people
will become more and more interested in these types of bets.

Speaker 5 (35:53):
Nailed it. The professionals prefer.

Speaker 6 (35:55):
Two way markets. What do I mean by that? Over
under that's the markets they prefer to into. They don't
like the multiple way markets. The futures markets where there's
fifteen twenty different options. That's where the whole percentage increases.
What do I mean by hold percentage? For every dollar
that gets spent, the sportsbooks hold x percent. In a

(36:16):
futures market, the whole percentage is like ten to fifteen percent,
So forever dollars spent, the sports books will obtain ten
fifteen cents, whereas in an over under side total it's
like three to five percent. So that's the markets that
the professionals prefer to bet into because it's just a
more efficient wager, but it's not as fun.

Speaker 5 (36:34):
Right, and that's where Brian, we get.

Speaker 6 (36:36):
That's where we get a lot of these crazy bets
that you know the public likes to make, but they're
just not as efficient.

Speaker 5 (36:42):
You're not gonna get as much bang for your buck.

Speaker 4 (36:44):
No, no good breakdowns. All right, We've got Jared Smith
FSR betting analyst Rich Ornberger with us six time. Six times,
that's Jeff Schwartz on Sunday. What's wrong with me?

Speaker 3 (36:56):
Yeah?

Speaker 5 (36:57):
Six times, BP.

Speaker 6 (37:00):
Surgery Penn State, All American.

Speaker 4 (37:05):
I'm Brian though. Love college basketball. Gear up for another
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(37:27):
your token activated, you'll score extra winnings. Speaking of extra winnings,
we'll try to get you some right around the corner.
The parlay platter which have one pick for you. We
pull it together for a greater payout. We'll compare notes. Next,
it is Fox Sports Radios Countdown presented by BETMGM. It
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MGM sportsbook app. Cool stuff. All right, let's do this

(38:34):
check this out far lad letter Ah, Yes, the platter.
We just have one selection. We pull it together for
a greater payout. Jared, we start with you, what do
you like?

Speaker 5 (38:43):
Well, the market is keen on me.

Speaker 6 (38:45):
Here because I was gonna put Maszoo in there, and
literally during the commercial break the lines went from two
and a half to three and a half. But I
think I'm on the right track here. So Miszoo is
at home. Game starts in about two hours early. Game
today in Columbia, really early, actually Central time nine am starts.
I think it's eleven am in Missoo. But no Darius
Acuff today for Arkansas. That is a huge injury. Darius

(39:08):
Acup might be not one pick in the draft. I mean,
this dude is taking the college basketball world by storm.
He's not playing for Arkansas today, resting up for the
SEC tournament and beyond. And Massoo's got a ton of
size and they've.

Speaker 5 (39:19):
Been really good at home this year.

Speaker 6 (39:20):
They're one loss during SEC play at homeless the Texas,
who really punked them on the glass. Well, Arkansas is
not a great rebounding team. They got they were minus
twenty against Florida last Saturday. So I think Miszoo, with
their size, Mark Mitchell and the big men for Missoo,
I think they're gonna bully Arkansas today. So I'll go
with the movement. I don't care it move from two
and a half to three and a half. I think

(39:40):
Miszoo wins big at home today. Miszoo minus three and
a half against Arkansas, the first leg of the parlay platter.

Speaker 3 (39:48):
All right, give me Vandy on the money line. They're
facing Tennessee. They have the better overall record. I think
they have the better late season punch. They just took
out Ole Miss behind a thirty four point game by
Tyler Danner Vanderbelt. They've already proved they can roll with
Tennessee in a tight matchup, only losing. But I believe

(40:09):
it was four points to sixty nine to sixty five
final two weeks ago. So this sets up well for
the Commodores to take a win here. I like Vanderbilt
today on the money line.

Speaker 4 (40:20):
Okay, normally I don't like laying sixteen and a half,
but I'll make an exception here. It's not the North
Carolina at Duke game. I'm looking at the Jayhawks. I'm
looking at rock Chalk over it. They've been rough lately.
Remember when they beat Arizona at home. Arizona was the
number one ranked team. Since then, the Jayhawks have gone

(40:41):
one in five. They're one in five in their last
six games. I think they put it on Kansas State
something nasty today. It's like the movie The Crow. Remember
I like that movie, but cheesy part was like twenty
four hours of pain all at once. I think that's
happening with the Jayhawks today. I'm looking at sixteen and

(41:02):
a half. That's what that.

Speaker 6 (41:03):
Plus eight twenty five Mazudas went back to two and
a half.

Speaker 5 (41:06):
I love it plus twenty five on.

Speaker 4 (41:08):
This coming up trades galore. Oh, welcome in Happy Saturday
to you. Hope all is well man. We've got more
trades to break down before we get to a hoops
bonanza here. Hey, be sure to subscribe to the Fox
Sports Radio YouTube channel. Just search Fox Sports Radio on
YouTube and you'll see our best videos from all of

(41:29):
our shows. And don't stop there. Smash that thumbs up icon.
You gotta do that and comment away. Let us know
whose takes you like and even whose takes you don't like.
Just search Fox Sports Radio on YouTube and subscribe. Okay,
So we broke down the Max Crosby trade. He goes
to the Ravens for two first round picks.

Speaker 3 (41:47):
Keep that.

Speaker 4 (41:48):
Keep that in mind, all right, as we focus on
a couple other trades. Trent McDuffie, the former Chiefs cornerback,
he gets dealt to the Rams. You also had former
Bears wide receiver Dj Moore, he got shipped to the
Buffalo Bills. So with all these trades in mind, Max
Crosby goes to the Ravens, Trent McDuffie goes to the Rams.

(42:11):
DJ Moore goes to the Bills. Which deal do you
like the most? I? Personally, I like Trent McDuffie going
to the Rams a lot. This is a Rams all
in move. This fits their whole. You know, they're back.
We're back, baby. Like f them picks, you know, they
they trade a first, a third, a fifth, and a sixth.
They traded four picks for Trent McDuffie. But that was

(42:34):
their weak spot, man, that was their achilles heel. It
was the secondary. Going into last season, we thought maybe
they would get Jalen Ramsey back and that didn't happen
and they just didn't have a good secondary throughout the season.
They got diced up in the playoff game by Sam Darnold.
Sam Donald went crazy against the Rams and they're like, okay,

(42:55):
we got to address this secondary man, And they made
this aggressive move for Trent McDuffie, who's a baller. He's
a really really good player. So is a heavy price tag,
But I do like that trade a lot for the Rams.

Speaker 3 (43:07):
Yeah, this wasn't just a hey, we're gonna add a
star corner. It was we're gonna buy the exact kind
of corner. This defensive system requires Chris Schula's defense lived
in dime coverage. They bested the rest of the league
by nearly nine percent. That's an enormous amount of dime coverage. Now,

(43:32):
obviously that means added defensive backs on the field, and
McDuffie's value is the fact that he can play outside.
He can play inside, he will not get exposed in
lighter boxes. He can blitz. I mean he's got twenty
two pressures in five and a half sacks like McDuffie

(43:52):
is a problem when he's close to line of scrimmage.
And then obviously his his coverage is exceptional and he'll
thrive in this system. The Rams are are looking to
add now because the Stafford window is still open. So
this is, hey, you know, very similar to how it's
been with McVeigh and this executive group. That's he's coached

(44:14):
alongside of we're gonna push all of our chips in,
you know, FM picks. We've heard it before. We're going
to go after players, not picks, because when you have
talent that you believe you can win with, you want
to shore things up. And McDuffie does that for the Rams.
So I in terms of the three you mentioned, Brian,

(44:35):
I do think the McDuffie trade recently is the most impactful.

Speaker 6 (44:40):
Yeah, Buffalo definitely needed a star receiver. I think there's
some risk with DJ Moore injury, the cap hit, all
those things.

Speaker 5 (44:47):
But if you.

Speaker 6 (44:49):
Drop DJ Moore into Buffalo and all of a sudden
he gives you that explosiveness, I think it makes the
Bills a better team, but there's definitely some risk there.
I do like on the other side, like I agree
that the Rams needed Trent McDuffie. On the other side,
I think Kansas City feels very comfortable with Steve Spagnolo
nurturing any young corner they have and getting him up
to that level, because that's how the Chiefs kind of

(45:11):
won that suit. I mean, I know Mahomes and the
offense certainly one of the reasons why, but another reason
why is they were very young defensively, and they trusted
their defensive coaches to bring that young core, especially that
very young secondary, up to speed very quickly. And they
were very good in that department. Chiefs defense was very
very solid during that nice run. So I think the
Kansas City brain trust trusts the defensive staff whoever they

(45:36):
bring in to get those guys up to speed quickly.
Because again McDuffie, he's been around for a few years now,
going into that contract year, and I think it's kind
of a reload, right, We're seeing Kansas City kind of
churn and burn their defensive team a little bit.

Speaker 5 (45:50):
They have two first round picks.

Speaker 6 (45:52):
Now, that is a very dangerous weapon to give Patrick Mahomes.
Now he has two first round picks with a very
capable front office, you assume offense with the first pick.
I'm hearing Jeremiah Love. I don't know if he's gonna
be there at nine.

Speaker 5 (46:04):
We'll see.

Speaker 6 (46:05):
But now they get that second first round pick at
the end of the first round, that Rams pick, and
we'll see how they handle that. Maybe they package those
two move up get one of the star players.

Speaker 5 (46:14):
In this draft.

Speaker 6 (46:15):
It makes Kansas City also very dangerous so I, you know,
unlike the Max Crosby situation, where I think it's you know,
the Raiders are obviously in rebuilding mode.

Speaker 5 (46:24):
That's not the case for the Kansas City Chiefs.

Speaker 6 (46:27):
You give Kansas City to first round picks, and all
of a sudden, you get we'll see again, they maybe
take two players, maybe they package, you get one really
good one, and all of a sudden, it makes the
Chiefs that much more dangerous next year.

Speaker 5 (46:38):
So I think that the Rams Chiefs trade very intriguing.

Speaker 6 (46:41):
When two contenders trade with each other, Brian, it is
very interesting to dissect.

Speaker 4 (46:47):
Yeah, it's interesting where we were mentioning this a little
while ago, where a couple of teams that made trades
there and go for it mode? But what mode are
their trade partners in?

Speaker 3 (46:59):
You know?

Speaker 4 (46:59):
So if you take that the Rams are clearly in
go for it mode? What mode are the Chiefs in?
I still think they're in go for it mode. They're
not rebuilding. You don't rebuild mahomes and Andy, No, No,
they're retooling. But I still think they're in go for
it mode because look, they didn't they traded Tyreek Hill
for a lot and they didn't miss a beat. You know,

(47:23):
they didn't pay lugerious sneed and they didn't miss a beat.
Trent McDuffie is a really, really good player, and they're
gonna miss him. But if there's a team that can,
you know, keep it going, it's the Chiefs. I just
don't buy that this is going to be a sustained
pattern for them. That was just I think it's a
one off that was a perfect storm of everything that

(47:44):
could go wrong did go wrong for them last season.
But I just don't think that they're consistently going to
be like a six and eleven team that just they're
too good to be that for the long haul. I
think they're going to be right back in the mix
this season.

Speaker 3 (47:58):
Yeah, listen, Kansas City, they probably extracted more value than
most teams get in the spot they were currently in,
And a little bit had to do with how badly
the Rams needed to shore things up, because I think
you pointed it out perfectly. When you have a player
like Sam Darnold in division and that stands in your

(48:21):
way from potentially winning the division, especially with a defense
that Seattle has as well, you have to have an answer.
And so it was just good timing and great value
for Kansas City, and then when you look at what
this really was for them, it was roster economics. You know,
cap pressure. You're staring down a fifth year, thirteen or

(48:45):
fourteen million dollars guarantee and then you're probably gonna have
to break this guy off for one hundred mil plus.
They can't do that. They basically sold a premium player
for a lot of cheap swings, and they need to
get more, I guess to put it simply, they need
to be cheaper at that position. They just do. And

(49:05):
so there's a lot of talent in college, a lot
more talent at the corner position in college than there's
ever been. These players are better coach than have been
for a long time because of seven on seven football,
flag football that is starting to migrate into the college ranks.
All these kids who grew up, you know, playing basically

(49:26):
basketball on the defensive backfield their whole youth growing up.
There are some kids who have never played any other
position than cornerback from Pop Warner, from flag through Pop
Warner to middle school, high school ball through college. And
these are going to be some of the players you're
can to be able to get your hands on in
the draft. So look, you can justify what the Chiefs

(49:48):
did by saying this is not a rebuild, This was
just simple cap management. And Veach isn't going to be
a skeward for this, not unless their defense is absolutely
dreadful next year, which I don't think they will be,
because they've done a nice job in terms of replacement
value going to the draft or potentially throwing some band

(50:10):
dates on things through free agency.

Speaker 6 (50:12):
Well, they love Jalen Watson, you know, and you know
he was I think a third I think he was
a later round pick.

Speaker 5 (50:17):
I think he was a no, he was a seventh
round pick.

Speaker 3 (50:19):
Wow.

Speaker 6 (50:20):
And they also love the rookie last year Noel Williams,
really big talented corner.

Speaker 5 (50:25):
Oh yeah, another Lakers gun pick.

Speaker 6 (50:27):
So yeah, they have they have a lot of good
And again, if you're asking me, do you trust Steve
Spagnolo to figure.

Speaker 5 (50:35):
It out, Yes, the answer to that question is yes.

Speaker 6 (50:38):
So I think Kansas City probably felt like they had
enough corners left in their piggy bank to where they
could trade one of them, get some really good capital
in return, and not miss a beat in the secondary.
So they've got some really good players that they like
in the secondary, and I think they're gonna be just
fine there next year. This is the rare situation, Brian

(50:59):
where I actually give positive grades to both teams for
this trade. I really do think it's a win win
for both teams because you trust Kansas City's brain trust
enough to get enough back whenever they whatever they decide
to do, if they decided to stick and pick with
nine and twenty nine, if they decide to package those
picks together and move up and make you know, a splash,

(51:20):
I trust Veach and his people enough. And then on
the other side, for the Rams, they are trying to
squeeze the life out of every last drop that Matthew
Stafford has, which means load up now. This could be
Stafford's last year. Who knows, load up now and get
the most because they were close last year.

Speaker 5 (51:37):
I mean, let's be honest, The NFC Championship game was
the Super Bowl last year.

Speaker 6 (51:41):
So they were very very close to getting over the
hump last year and they probably feel they were one
or two players away.

Speaker 5 (51:46):
Well now they got one of them. So this is
that rare scenario.

Speaker 6 (51:49):
Unlike the Ravens deal for Max Crossby, unlike this Bills
Bears deal for DJ Moore where you just don't know
what Dj Moore is gonna give you. This is one
of those scenarios where I feel like both teams got
the max amount of value out of this deal.

Speaker 4 (52:03):
You know, It's one thing to consider and I don't
do this often. I should do it a lot more.
But it just got me thinking with us talking about
these trades, if you kind of gauge the trades and
who won and you know, all that stuff, if you
think of it through the perspective of the divisional rivals,
you know, like, what did they think about the trades?

(52:25):
What do you think the Seahawks and the forty nine
Ers think about the Rams getting Trent McDuffie.

Speaker 5 (52:32):
You know, they're they probably don't love it, right.

Speaker 4 (52:34):
They're gonna be competitive and they're gonna be like, game on,
let's go. But if they're being completely honest, they're like, ooh,
that's a that's a big upgrade right there, you know,
Trek McDuffie. What do you think the Bengals, What do
you think Joe Burrow's thinking about with the Ravens getting
Max Cross?

Speaker 5 (52:49):
Not happy early.

Speaker 4 (52:52):
The Steelers if Rogers is back or they've had some
O line issues and Max Crosby's in the Division two
games a year, right, that's kind of like, oh gosh,
here we go. What do you think the Patriots think
about the Bills getting Dj Moore? I like Dj Moore.
I don't think the Patriots are like, oh no, They're
probably like, oh, all right, cool, like all right, Like

(53:13):
DJ Moore is a good player, but he's not making you,
you know, like shaking your boots at all.

Speaker 3 (53:18):
I mean, the the the Bills can get digs back too.

Speaker 4 (53:25):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (53:26):
Wow, No, look the reality is I agree. I think
in the vision, if I'm the Seahawks, Cardinals, Niners, I'm
looking at what the Rams just did and went, oh
they're Wow, that's a that's a for real trade. In
the vision, if I'm the Browns, the Bengals, the Steelers,
I'm looking at what the Ravens did with Crosby, I'm going, oh, wow,

(53:49):
that's a that's a big boy trade. We've got our
hands full. We're gonna have to circle number ninety eight
or whatever number Crosby wears for the Ravens. And you've
got you've got a problem. You've got a problem you
need to solve every time you face them, and you
have to face them twice a year. But I agree
with you. I think that More is a very talented,
probably under heralded receiver. Considering the impact he's had on

(54:15):
multiple teams, multiple quarterbacks. He kind of reminds me almost
as keenan Allen like, highly productive, often forgotten receiver who's
very like will make you better, no doubt will will sometimes,
you know, get you in a situation where you gotta

(54:35):
find somebody to play seven games for you. You know
what I mean, because you know he'll get banged up
here and there. But a really really solid, rock solid guy.
But are the Patriots, Dolphins, Jets shaking in their boots
because More came to Buffalo? No, I don't think so.
I think I think they're looking at it and saying, Okay,

(54:56):
the Bills got better, so we we have to too.
But it wasn't. It's the earth hasn't rattled underneath anybody's
feet at their desks in any of those franchises offices.

Speaker 6 (55:09):
The upside here is Joe Brady's very familiar with Dj Moore.
He was the I think the offensive coordinator in Carolina
during that time when Dj Moore was in Carolina.

Speaker 5 (55:17):
He definitely coached him. I don't know if he was
the OC or not.

Speaker 6 (55:20):
So there's a connection there. They know the offense, and
that's I don't want to say seamless transition anytime Joe
Brady goes from OC to head coach.

Speaker 5 (55:27):
But same system, similar skill sets.

Speaker 6 (55:31):
Right. It's a lot of short, quick passing, a lot
of YAK. You utilize Josh Allen's legs too, So I
think it's it has the potential to be not explosive,
but definitely productive. To Brian's original point, I liken it
to a team going forward on fourth down. Let's say
you're betting on the opposite side and a team decides
to punt on fort down. How you react to that

(55:53):
is whether or not they made the right decision.

Speaker 5 (55:54):
If a team.

Speaker 6 (55:55):
Decides to go forward on fourth down, you're like, man,
I really wish they would have punted here, then you
know it's the right decision to go for it on
fourth down. So I like the way that Brian framed it,
to flip it to the opposite angle of the rivals
and to see how they would react. Put yourself in
the scenario of the Seahawks.

Speaker 5 (56:13):
You know, offense.

Speaker 6 (56:14):
If they don't, like if they're shaking in their boots
today or if they're a little bit upset, then it's
probably a good deal for the ram.

Speaker 5 (56:21):
Same thing with the you know, the Bills opponents.

Speaker 6 (56:23):
Like, I think the Patriots secondary feels pretty solid, but
Jets and Dolphins probably don't love the fact that they
now have to see a DJ Moore twice a year.
So I think there's upside to Buffalo's situation. Chicago's Like,
we haven't talked about the Chicago side.

Speaker 3 (56:35):
To this deal.

Speaker 6 (56:37):
Like I think, you know, the Bears they were close
last year too, guys, and I like Ben Johnson a lot.
I think if there's one guy, you know, we trust
Kansas City's brain trust, I really trust Ben Johnson in
his situation.

Speaker 5 (56:50):
So I think if.

Speaker 6 (56:51):
Anyone could do a lot with less, you know, it's
certainly the Bears. They did a lot with less last year,
and they made a very deep run despite the fact
that nobody gave them a fighters chance to even win
the division. And I think that's the more intriguing part
to this. You know, we haven't talked about the Bear
side of it. You know, what do they do with
that pick? What do they do with the added capital
that they're going to gain from this Dj Moore trade?

(57:13):
And do they make their situation better? And is Chicago?
How are the Packers and the Vikings feeling today about
Ben Johnson getting a little more ammunition in his corner.
So I think that's another intriguing part of this trade.
And I do think Chicago is going to be a
very solid team next year and Caleb Williams, maybe they'll
get another receiver in the draft.

Speaker 4 (57:32):
Yeah, I fil listen if you're talking about another win win.
I think the DJ Moore deal was a win win
for both the Bills and the Bears. The Bills had
to get better at wide receiver, and DJ Moore is good.
I really like your comparison Rich to Keenan Allen, because
that's what DJ Moore is like. He's not dynamic, he's solid,
he's productive. He's not a diva at all, not at all.

(57:55):
But he's not like special. He's not like WHOA, you
got a top five, top guy. He's just he's steady.
He's just like Keenan Allen.

Speaker 5 (58:03):
You know.

Speaker 4 (58:03):
I really like that comparison. So it makes sense for
the Bills to upgrade and the Bears. Listen, we talked
about this guy when he was in college a lot.
Luther Burden, I think is gonna have a breakout year
for the Bears.

Speaker 9 (58:15):
Man.

Speaker 4 (58:16):
He's a good young wide receiver, obviously, and he's like
a running back after the catch, Jared, you were just
talking about yak yards after the catch. That freaking guy. Man,
when they just give it to him on a screen
and say do what you do, Burden, it's like good
luck tackling that freaking guy. He is quick, he's fast,
and he is hard to corral. So I think that

(58:36):
Luther Burden's gonna take a big step forward. And now
that DJ Moore isn't there, it's you know, it's not
like DJ Moore is ancient, but it's out with the old,
in with the new. It's the young guys. It's Roma Dunza,
it's Luther Burden, it's Colston Loveland, it's the yung movement
over there in Chicago. And you're right, Jared, they might
pick up another wide receiver. I wouldn't be surprised at all.

(58:57):
But what they have, I still feel that they're gonna
be really dynamic in the passing game, just like they
were this past season.

Speaker 5 (59:06):
It's uh, we really love Luther Burton on this show.

Speaker 3 (59:08):
We do.

Speaker 5 (59:09):
Yeah, definitely, we really do.

Speaker 3 (59:13):
It's gonna be. It's gonna be, I think, a fun
season coming up because we're gonna have quarterback movement. We're
going I mean, we've already seen some massive trades. Teams
are going to be taking some big swings because even
though there's an injection of youth in the NFL at
the quarterback position, we got some old dogs kicking around
on teams who are in flux. The Rams need to

(59:36):
get it right before Stafford's time is done. You know,
we have a huge question mark in Pittsburgh. There's there's
a couple of teams who you know, they're they're maybe
at the end of their rope in terms of, you know,
a quarterback's interested interest in staying or or maybe moving on.
I think I think Joe Burrow at some point could
be a question mark for the Bengals, and so what

(59:58):
happens this season is going to be very important for Cincinnati.
Tam press upon him that they're they're feathering the bed
for a bright future for Joe Burrow. Otherwise, who knows
what happens, you know, I this is gonna be again. Look,
I mean I'm looking at it's it's March seventh.

Speaker 4 (01:00:16):
You know I'm ready for now many Yeah, the league
year hasn't even started yet.

Speaker 6 (01:00:23):
It's not evenial till next we again make it the
Crowgby trades not even official till next.

Speaker 3 (01:00:28):
This is insane.

Speaker 4 (01:00:29):
We're sick, os, I mean we are sick. Yeah, all right,
We've got rich ron Berger, Penn State All American, Jared
Smith FSR betting analyst, I'm Brian No. Register with bet
MGM get instant access to the best variety of parlay
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(01:00:52):
if they don't win their first bet. Place your money
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the bonus code is countdown. Bet MGM make it legendary.
Coming up our main man, Seamus McGee from BETMGM gets
you all set for some college hoops, maybe a little NBA.

Speaker 3 (01:01:07):
I don't know.

Speaker 4 (01:01:08):
I don't know if there's room for ball either, but
we'll figure it out. We'll stuff a bunch of stuffs
as much as we can shoehorn it. With Seamus coming
up next. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown presented by BETMGM.
It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown presented by bet MGM.
Be sure to check out the new looking features in

(01:01:28):
the betmgm app. It's fast and easy access to the
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the bet mgm app. Okay, let's do.

Speaker 1 (01:01:52):
This, follow the money real good one.

Speaker 4 (01:01:55):
Our main man, Seamus McGee joins us here, team lead
of Sports Trading at BETMGM. Good morning to you, Seamus,
Hope all is well. So I see the game of
the day, number seventeen North Carolina seventeen and a half
point underdogs at number one, Duke. We know Duke's credentials,
suffocating defense, all that good stuff Cameron Boozer, what do

(01:02:18):
you think about seventeen and a half though? And more importantly,
what does BETMGM need in this game?

Speaker 9 (01:02:24):
Hey guys, thanks for having me back. It's just a
crazy line. You know, Caleb Wilson's out for the year
and UNC's really gonna miss him, especially going into the tournament.
But Duke over the last week, I mean, this team
just looks like a juger not firing on all cylinders.
It's really hard to fade them at this point. I

(01:02:44):
think we're gonna we're gonna by tip off. I think
we're gonna end up needing UNC to cover that seventeen
and a half. I just think the public is all
over Duke right now. It's harder to find a hotter
team in the country.

Speaker 6 (01:02:55):
Right now when you get scenarios like this, Seamus, is
it hard this late in the year when a player
like Caleb Wilson is out for you to adjust the
number on UNC like because obviously the newsworthiness of that
will obviously push a lot of people towards too. But
sometimes it's like too much team on one side, and
then maybe we overcook the grits when it comes to

(01:03:16):
downgrading UNC is it hard when you've had a whole
season of data on a team like the Victorios. We're
going to make the tournament even without Kayleb Wilson, and
then all of a sudden you have tojust your number because.

Speaker 5 (01:03:26):
Of a star player injury. Is that like the hardest
scenario for the books to kind of figure out what
the right number is.

Speaker 9 (01:03:33):
If U and C's odds were better with Caleb Wilson,
it'd be a little tougher. I know, we moved this
number about one hundred and fifty to one after the news. Wow,
it's just if they were sitting around, like, you know,
twenty to one last week before this is then we'd
get into a situation like, all right, now what do

(01:03:54):
we do? But I think before they were sitting around
like that sixty to one range. So he's one of
the best players in the country right now. He's going
to be a top ten pick in the draft. It's
just you lose a guy like that. He's like the
whole offense almost, so it's going to be really tough
for him making a run in the tournament.

Speaker 3 (01:04:15):
Seamus. When you look at fantasy football leagues, people do
mock drafts leading up to you know, the big day
where they finally set their roster. You know, with bracketology,
there's really no warm up because you don't know where
things are going to be seated. You really have no

(01:04:35):
clue until the conference tournaments are over. My question falls
on that side of this. You know, when you are
going to either put a future's bet in on a
high value, high upside team, how much I guess stock
do you put in the momentum you can gain from
a hot run through a conference tournament earning you a

(01:04:58):
birth into a bracket versus a team who's you know,
I got bitted in because of the work they've done
throughout the course of the regular season.

Speaker 9 (01:05:10):
It's a case by case basis. I think like it
really depends on the team. Like go back a bunch
of years ago, Oregon State wasn't gonna sniff the tournament.
They win the PAC twelfth tournament and they were a
game weight Roe to the final four. Yep, So there's
definitely kate. And then on the flip side, you had
Georgetown that same year, nowhere sniff in the tournament. They

(01:05:31):
win the Big East and they got pumped in the
first round. So it really does depend on the team.
I think it depends a lot on the conference they're
coming from as well. So I think just be very
careful when playing with Uncle Moe.

Speaker 3 (01:05:47):
He's the guy who shows up. He brings his own
beard of the family union, you know what I mean.
He's not depending on the cooler. He's making sure he
brings his own.

Speaker 4 (01:05:56):
You know, as we look toward the tournament, Seamus, if
if you're picking one team yourself to back to win
it all, who is it? And if you could eliminate
one team from winning it all, that might benefit bet
MGM the most. Where are you going with both of
those things?

Speaker 9 (01:06:17):
One team that will benefit me professionally and personally would
be Duke. I would really love to see Duke not
win the championship this year. I also think I'm really
like these three teams on the two line. I really
like Florida's, Houston Illinois. I really like those teams. I

(01:06:37):
think they can really make a run.

Speaker 5 (01:06:41):
Yeah, I like Florida a lot.

Speaker 6 (01:06:42):
I think Florida is the most slept on team in
this tournament right now, and I know they're not. You know,
there's like seven or eight to one somewhere in that range.
I don't like to bring slept on, but they are
the defending champs. Like, has there been a defending champion
with an elite roster talked about less than the Florida
Gators right now?

Speaker 5 (01:06:57):
I don't remember if there was.

Speaker 6 (01:07:00):
It's interesting because I think we get into the world.
Let's let's switch gears a little bit to the NFL
because the league years about to start. We're getting a
ton of these trades, right we had the Max Crosby
trade yesterday. How much is the actual futures market impacted
by these trades?

Speaker 5 (01:07:13):
Is it still way too early to make any.

Speaker 6 (01:07:16):
Significant moves because there's numbers out, there's win totals out.

Speaker 5 (01:07:20):
But I do think it impacts it a little bit.

Speaker 6 (01:07:22):
But how hard is it to move numbers based off
of trades that are happening now? Considering we still have
the draft, we still have all four agency to go it.
There's still so much more pieces of the puzzle left
to put into plays. But we're starting to get some
of the corners kind of situated now with some of
these big moves early on in the process.

Speaker 9 (01:07:41):
Yeah, that's the thing. This far out from the actual season,
starting before we even kick a football, you got a
lot of win of a room.

Speaker 1 (01:07:47):
Like you can move a.

Speaker 9 (01:07:48):
Number and then the market will tell you pretty soon
you know whether that number is right or not. So,
you know, the Ravens getting max Radery. We moved from
twelve to one to ten to one for the Suer Bowl.
Noticeable for some at least, but some of you just
kind of tell like this is a big deal for
the Ravens, like they really needed another edge rusher. It's

(01:08:08):
a big move for them. It will help out their defense.
So they definitely get a bump there.

Speaker 3 (01:08:14):
In terms of in terms of all these trades McDuffie, Crosby,
you know, even the release of Stefan Diggs. You know
what if you don't have to rank them, but in
terms of like the most impactful or more to Buffalo,
in terms of the most impactful, what would you say

(01:08:35):
is the team that received the most value for the trade.
And you could you could comment on either side of it,
you know, I mean McDuffie goes he leaves Kansas City
for the Rams. Everybody's concentrating on with the Rams, get well,
what about what the Kansas City Chiefs were able to
do in terms of cap flexibility? You know, same for

(01:08:55):
the Bears and the Buffalo Bills seem for the Raiders
and the Ravens, and really even the Patriots for the
headache that they may have removed from their user.

Speaker 9 (01:09:05):
It's a really tough question because the Pats cutting digs
kind of surprise. I know he's got the off the
field stuff which has to get sorted, but it made
me kind of think like maybe the Pats are going
to be in the mix for maybe a big name receiver.
I think I saw rumblings that they were. They were
bringing Howie Rodesman for a J. Brown, So that's interesting.

(01:09:27):
I really like that. The Chiefs trade is very interesting
because you know, Duffy's a great corner, but they do
have to pay him. I love the trade for the Bears.
I think they got a lot of whiteouts. I think
they're gonna be a ok luthor Burden. He's gonna step up,
in my opinion, and they got plenty of money off
the books now, So I really like that more for
the Bears.

Speaker 4 (01:09:49):
All Right, the moment of truth? How we get rich today? Seamus?
What is the special?

Speaker 9 (01:09:55):
I'm going back to the Florida Gators. We talked about
him a couple of times here. I really you like
them on the road to Kentucky. I like that number
five and a half a lot.

Speaker 4 (01:10:04):
Okay, there it is, let's get after it. Go Gators,
all right, Seamous good stuff as always, Bud Helpe, you
have a great day. We'll catch it soon.

Speaker 9 (01:10:13):
Appreciate that a good one, guys.

Speaker 3 (01:10:14):
You do. There.

Speaker 4 (01:10:15):
He is Seamus McGee, team lead of sports trading at
bet MGM. Good stuff. You guys have a thought on
that Florida game. Well, James just mentioned it might as
well dive into that one, and Jared, I know you
love the Gators too, like they're a good team. This
line right, Like, it's just hold right, it's just staying
there with Kentucky, who has been pretty rough throughout this season.

(01:10:38):
But you know, there's some faith in their offense, at
least man their offense against Florida's defense, it will be
fun to watch. But yeah, I don't know, there's gonna
be a lot of emotion in that building. And you know,
they might have a college basketball anything can happen, but
against Florida's defense and the way Florida has been playing
as of late, they had as a nasty basketball team.

Speaker 3 (01:11:01):
Yeah, Florida's biggest edge is they're not just better, they
control the most repeatable parts of the game of basketball.
In terms of this matchup, in most matchups they're gonna
run into I'm gonna just rattle off some things that
I discovered when I was looking at this matchup. Their

(01:11:21):
plus fourteen point eight rebound margin. Let's see, they lead
the SEC in both offensive and defensive efficiency. On top
of that, they lead the SEC in two point offense
and two point defense. I mean, this is just a
team that does everything right, that's really good at all

(01:11:43):
of the like the fundamentals. Like when we talk about
winning in the paint both sides of the half court line,
Florida does that. When you're talking about crashing the boards,
one of the most important stats in basketball is making
sure to win the rebound march, and they do that
by leaps and bounds. They are clean team. They're the

(01:12:05):
type of team that you can ride all the way
through march. They just are. They're They're very complete. I
love Florida on you know, in terms of a side
in this game. And look Kentucky's path, I mean there
is a real path, you know. I don't want to
look past a blue bud and just be like, well,
it's just a walk in the park for the Gators.

(01:12:26):
They need half court shot making, so they need to
pass the ball well, and that's difficult against a very
efficient defensive team like Florida. But if they can sustain,
if they can keep this game close, if they can
hit their short their shots when they're in the half
court and they're setting up their offense, they got They

(01:12:46):
have to find the open shot and the best shots.
Not easy against Florida, but they have to and that
is a real path. It truly is. They're talented, they
have shot makers. So that's what Kentucky needs to do
today if they're gonna survive this one.

Speaker 6 (01:13:00):
Yeah, Market definitely is a little bit confounded on this one.
They get one of the sharper shops here in town.

Speaker 5 (01:13:06):
Six six and a half, six six and a half.

Speaker 6 (01:13:07):
It's five and a half minus the juice at that MGM,
So I think I would lean Florida at five and
a half.

Speaker 5 (01:13:13):
I think there's two different conversations to have, Brian.

Speaker 6 (01:13:15):
It's how do we feel about Florida in the tournament
and how do we feel about Florida in a relatively
meaningless final regular season game today, right, this is a
senior day for Kentucky. Always been their star for a
number of years, and obviously he's going to be you know,
honored today along with I think a couple other seniors
that Kentucky has. This is a very good Kentucky team.

(01:13:36):
There's another team that I think the SEC listen, guys,
I mean you could throw you could, you know, close
your eyes and throw a dartboard on the SEC. And
there's four or five teams I think that are going
to be in the Sweet sixteen or at least competing
for the Final four for sure, and Kentucky, I would say,
is one of them. Mark Pop's done a really good
job with this team, and you know they were in
the Sweet sixteen last year. So I do think Kentucky's
live today. I'm not gonna, you know, overcook the grits

(01:13:58):
with Florida because again one of those games where you
just don't know how up and how focused they are
with the SEC tournament on deck n C double a
tournament after that. But the market is kind of giving
you mixed signals here, so I don't have a strong
feel for this game. I do have a strong feel
for Florida over the next couple of weeks, but not
necessarily in this particular matchup today against a Kentucky team

(01:14:19):
that can get up and down and certainly will have
the motivation and you know a lot of the you know,
the the inspiration on Senior.

Speaker 5 (01:14:28):
Day down there in Lexington.

Speaker 4 (01:14:29):
It's funny, isn't sports are weird?

Speaker 3 (01:14:31):
Right?

Speaker 4 (01:14:32):
Where this this could be I'm not calling it. This
could be a good performance from Kentucky today against a
fantastic Florida team And it's one of these where you're like,
where was that all year? You know, it could easily
go down like that. By the way, quick shout out
to Miami of Ohio. Oh yeah, he's an unbeaten Do
you see any of the game last night against unbelievable

(01:14:54):
game gone over time? It was a madhouse over there. Yeah,
and Miami of Ohio survived, but fun stuff, man. And
I'll tell you what they're they're a tournament team. We
can put that argument to bed.

Speaker 5 (01:15:06):
They better be. There's people in my mention saying they're not.
If they lose next week.

Speaker 4 (01:15:10):
Well like they're probably not going to win their conference tournament.
I think Akron is going to be very h akrons
the favor. Yeah, but listen, as long as they're not
one and done in the conference tournament, they're in the
Big Dance.

Speaker 6 (01:15:23):
Yes, they went thirty one and oher in the regular season.
You got to put them in a sixty eighteen field.

Speaker 3 (01:15:28):
It's crazy.

Speaker 4 (01:15:29):
You have to.

Speaker 3 (01:15:30):
You have to.

Speaker 4 (01:15:31):
They would have to get obliterated in their first conference
tournament game, and I don't think that's gonna happen.

Speaker 5 (01:15:38):
So not against you, mass Come on, No, they're in.
You gotta put them in.

Speaker 3 (01:15:42):
God, We've got Rich.

Speaker 4 (01:15:43):
Roinberger, Penn State All American, Jared Smith FSR betting analyst.
I'm Brian no love college basketball. Gear up for another
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(01:16:04):
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Speaker 3 (01:16:12):
All right.

Speaker 4 (01:16:12):
Coming up next, prop it Up, we'll look at the
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nights day at MGM Grand and more. Definitely check that out.
All right, let's dive into this.

Speaker 1 (01:17:08):
Prop it up, don't player plays?

Speaker 3 (01:17:11):
All right?

Speaker 4 (01:17:12):
Prop bets galore, Jared, we start with you with something
you like.

Speaker 6 (01:17:16):
Well, we like Duke today, right because they're gonna blow
out UNC. But we don't necessarily want to lay the
wood because this is a big number and Caleb Wilson
is out and that's why it's a big number. So
let's try to attack this game from the prop market
perspective and target Cameron Boozer over twenty two and a
half points. This is a he bench game for Duke.
North Carolina is the only team to beat Duke in
conference play this year. A month ago UNC one seventy

(01:17:39):
one sixty eight in in Chapel Hill. Booser scored twenty
four of the sixty eight Duke points in that game.
So we get twenty two and a half now, and
no Caleb Wilson, who was fantastic in that first matchup
forty minutes, twenty three points, four rebounds, two assists, a block,
two steals, Partridge in a par tree. So no Caleb Wilson.
We think Cameron Boozer in the Dukie's gonna be very

(01:18:01):
up for a rivalry game. Twenty two and a half
point feels like a fair. No, we don't want to
lay the big spread with the Dookies, but I will
go over twenty two and a half points for miss
the Bouza.

Speaker 3 (01:18:12):
Okay, another big one Kentucky hosting Florida. I like the
under on Otegaway twenty one and a half today. He's
been a really good score for Kentucky, but this season
in his average sits right around seventeen points per game.
Florida is one of the better defensive teams in the SEC.
We were talking about that earlier. They make your work

(01:18:32):
for everything in the half court. Kentucky also spreads to
scoring around, so it's not like every possession is assigned
for oh Way to get to the hoop. Could he
get hot, yeah, could he blow right past it? Yeah?
He goes on heater nights, There's no question about it.
But if you're playing percentages, twenty and a half feels
little inflated. So I'm leaning the under on oh Way

(01:18:54):
today for Kentucky.

Speaker 4 (01:18:56):
All right, I'll go to the rebounds market over here,
looking at Mark Mitchell forward over there with Miszoo. They're
taking on Arkansas today. I'm gonna go under four and
a half rebounds. And this is a bit of a
trend if you look at this with Mark Mitchell, he's
gone under his total rebounds at least four and a half. Right,

(01:19:17):
if that's the number, could fluctuate game to game. But
he's been under four and a half rebounds in each
of his last seven games. So that's that's a repeated
trend right now, and look, no a cuff junior. And
so that throws a wrench into this. Maybe a few
more misses from Arkansas, maybe more potential for defensive rebounds.

(01:19:38):
That's something you have to factor in. But if it's
seven straight to the under, I'm just gonna keep riding
that until it breaks. And I'm gonna guess that it's
not breaking today. Give me Mark Mitchell the forward from Miszoo,
the duke transfer number twenty five. Look for number twenty
five to not be getting rebounds right as if twenty

(01:19:59):
five gets rebound, you gotta be oh, no, no, or
to just be like no, it's an idiot.

Speaker 3 (01:20:04):
You know.

Speaker 4 (01:20:04):
Maybe maybe you don't tail this one, but I like it.
I'm gonna go under four and a half for Mark
Mitchell rebounds.

Speaker 5 (01:20:10):
Yeah, I like Miszool a lot today. Sorry, go ahead,
you got another one.

Speaker 3 (01:20:13):
No, no, we we were talking about the sweat of
watching a point a point prop versus rebound prop. You
know what I mean, Where guys missing foul shots last
week we're saying it's the worst because Jared, I think
you perfectly pointed out the reason why that gets so
frustrating is because everybody on the planet, who can shoot

(01:20:36):
a basketball, can hit a foul shot, you know what
I mean?

Speaker 5 (01:20:40):
You know, so I can go with nobody watching.

Speaker 6 (01:20:43):
Exactly what people are watching, and it's that's what it
gets harder.

Speaker 3 (01:20:47):
But a rebound against seven footers, you're you're so.

Speaker 6 (01:20:50):
Zero chance, no chance to get a rebound amongst the
tall trees.

Speaker 3 (01:20:54):
I've got a good at I'll tell you what.

Speaker 4 (01:20:58):
Man, when it's four and a half, if a guy
gets a rebound, it feels like he just got five
at what you know what I mean, That's how it feels. Oh,
what is going on? Happy Saturday to you?

Speaker 3 (01:21:10):
As we.

Speaker 4 (01:21:12):
Press forward toward March madness. Not that long from now,
not that long from now. What is it, March nineteenth?
That would be the first real day that Thursday as
not far from It's less than two weeks away. So
we were getting there. And we've got a great matchup
today at least rivalry wise, that would be North Carolina

(01:21:34):
at Duke. Like you said, Jared, payback spot, the Duchies
trying to avenge an earlier defeat at North Carolina and man,
this point spread guys, seventeen and a half. Wow, it's
one of these where it's gonna go one of two ways,
where you know North caro North Carolina is gonna keep

(01:21:56):
it respectable throughout and you're like, I knew seven teen
and a half was too much, or you know, with
no Caleb Wilson, the Dukies just come out suffocating defense.
Their offense is doing their thing, Cameron Boozer's doing his thing.
They're just steadily like growing this lead, growing it, growing it.
And at halftime, you know, Duke's up by fourteen, and

(01:22:18):
you're like, oh my gosh, I don't feel great about this.
Plus seventeen and a half ticket in my back pocket, right,
it's gonna go one of two ways. But heading into
the game seventeen and a half is highly disrespectful, man,
Like we're acting like this isn't a rivalry game, Like
North Carolina's completely ineffective. I just I don't think it's

(01:22:39):
that bad for them. I know Duke is playing their
best basketball of the season right here.

Speaker 3 (01:22:44):
They are.

Speaker 4 (01:22:44):
They've been fantastic as of late. I've seen him twice
in person. They crushed Syracuse them, then they crushed by
Notre Dame fighting Irish. You know, they've been fantastic these
last couple of weeks. But man seventeen and a half
in a rivalry spot like that, it's tough to cover
a number that big, Rich, Yeah, it really is.

Speaker 3 (01:23:03):
The injury wrinkle could could be a big factor here.
Caleb Wilson being out the freshman star responsible for twenty
points nine rebounds per game this season, that that does
make you think on it a little bit. And I

(01:23:23):
would argue, just from a tempo standpoint, if this turns
into a score fest that benefits Duke. But I mean,
do I think they're gonna win this game? No? Do
I think the point spread is respectful? Also? No, you
know what I mean? I think I like, I feel

(01:23:46):
like there's a happy medium here somewhere, And and you know,
and Jared, I'm glad you're next on deck here because
when I see lines that don't make sense to me,
typically I just run from him, you know, Like I
like it's a Marquie Matt and Chapel Hill. Marquie matchups

(01:24:07):
are fun tobacco road, we know. But like when when
it's wonky like this, I just I just lay off.
I I ask the questions that I think are pertinent
to ask from a betting standpoint, Why do I think
this number is the way it is, and I could
make plenty of arguments for that, but typically when I
see a line that's really out of whack, instead of

(01:24:28):
trying to exploit it, I just back off.

Speaker 5 (01:24:31):
Yeah, and there's not a lot of good reasons to
back Duke today, guys, like because of the the how
big the number is.

Speaker 6 (01:24:38):
Like I'm not saying that they're not gonna look great
and they're not gonna win the game, but we're talking
about it goes back to the Max Scrasby trade, right, Like, yeah,
Max Scraw's be a great player. What are you giving
up to get him? Yeah, Duke's a great team. North
Carolina is without their best player. You know, the thumb
surgery for Caleb Wilson, very unfortunate happen in practice, broke
his thumb.

Speaker 5 (01:24:57):
What are we laying with Duke today?

Speaker 6 (01:24:59):
And the other scenario here is the rock element, which
adds some frenziedness to this game. North Carolina played Duke
really tough the last game. I know, Kayleb. Wilson was
technically like the MVP of that game, but Carolina played
him really tough. You know, this is a this is
a rivalry we're all right, it's after respect where the

(01:25:22):
sports book is approaching it from a number perspective.

Speaker 5 (01:25:25):
Haven't seen a ton of movement here.

Speaker 6 (01:25:27):
Bet MGM opened seventeen and a half, we haven't really
seen any you.

Speaker 5 (01:25:30):
Know, strong push to either side.

Speaker 6 (01:25:33):
Right, Like if the number was wrong, the sharp money,
the bill Krachenbergers would tell you that the number is wrong,
they would go bet Duke and they would move this
number eighteen eighteen and a half nineteen. Right, There's not
a lot of resistance once you get that high, Brian.
It's not like a game that's gravitating around the key number.

Speaker 5 (01:25:51):
Right in football it's three. In basketball it's.

Speaker 6 (01:25:53):
Two, three, five seven, right, if it was a lower number,
and all of a sudden, we're pushing through a lot
of the keys, and you're like, all right, there's some
really strong money on Duke today seventeen and a half.
Like if a really sharp better love Duke today, this
number would jump to eighteen and a half nineteen. So
we haven't seen that, which means the number is right.

(01:26:14):
And if the number's right, I'm not really that interested
in betting the spread.

Speaker 4 (01:26:18):
Yeah, I get it. It's it's one of these deals.
When I walk through this game and I play this
scenario out of what's it gonna take to cover this
spread if you're on Duke? And what could go wrong?

Speaker 3 (01:26:29):
Right?

Speaker 4 (01:26:29):
I think like that, like what could go wrong? And
I look at Duke and it's like, Okay, I go
back to the first game when North Carolina won the
game and they had that big comeback late and the
crowd was just going freaking crazy, you know, like the
Duke fans don't get me wrong, don't be fired up
if they're putting it on North Carolina. But are they

(01:26:50):
gonna be just fired up as if this is a
you know, one possession game, every bucket counts, or you know,
it's it gonna be the same emotion if the up
by fifteen or sixteen and trying to push it to eighteen,
you know what I mean, Like, it's just not gonna
be the same feeling to it. And then I look
at North Carolina's got a lot of pride. It's a

(01:27:11):
rivalry game. No one wants to get waxed ever, but
especially against your rival. So I think they're gonna play
this thing out, you know, if they're losing pretty big late,
if let's just say North Carolina is down by twenty.
I think they're gonna play this thing on out and
Duke might put in subs, and you know, like now
we're playing the foul game potentially, Like there are a
lot of ways for Duke not to get there, And

(01:27:34):
if I had to go one way or the other,
I'm not laying seventeen and a half. I just can't
in a rivalry game like this. We're acting like North
Carolina is like fourteen and sixteen. They're twenty four and six.
A lot of those wins were with Caleb Wilson. But
my gosh, dude, like that, we're acting like this team
is brutal.

Speaker 3 (01:27:51):
They're not.

Speaker 4 (01:27:52):
They're not a brutal team. Duke is fantastic. I get that,
but we're not. We're acting like North Carolina as the
sisters of the pooral here they are.

Speaker 3 (01:28:03):
They aren't, you know, And and like you said, all
the things we know. The way the last game went, Yes,
Caleb Wilson being out factors the fact that Duke they
can their fan base can get behind him. All everything matters.
But the biggest, the biggest variable is the correct word

(01:28:26):
to put on it, is the fact that it is
a rivalry. The fact that when you have a well
coached team of hard, nos great basketball players taking a
court and I understand, it's not the season any Tar
Heel fan wanted to have. I get it, and it's not.
It's not going well, but it's this isn't a team

(01:28:49):
that's going to lay down and let you wipe your
feet off on them. It's just not. And so again,
if you ask the next couple of questions after you
see a point spread that high, and then also where
the line opened and the movement that Jared was talking
about that didn't occur in a positive fashion for Duke,

(01:29:10):
it just it goes a long way to suggest to
all of us that this really isn't to me a game. Look,
I guess if you want betting advice, if there's one
one way that I'm leaning, it would be, you know,
take the dogs on the point spread. But laying them
with Duke feels feels hard to do. If it would,

(01:29:33):
it feels hard to do. But if you're forced to
make a bet on this, I think the more interesting bet,
the the better easier sweat is U and C today
plus seventeen and a half.

Speaker 6 (01:29:46):
I think when you look at these games. Guys, the
prop market and the other markets are your friends. Yeah,
Like we just talked about it with the Boozer prop
Like that is more of a concentrated wager where I
feel like the sports books might be a little bit wrong.
Like if Boozer wants to go god mode today, twenty
two and a half is a very low number for
a rivalry game. But then you also have to take

(01:30:07):
the blowout factor into account, like if they're up twenty
in the final four minutes, he might sit. So this
is a tough I think there are better bets on
the board today than this game. I actually think the
rivalry games are really hard to bet, really hard to bet.
I would actually lenk to the under a little bit
just because of you would think there will be more intensity.

(01:30:29):
But I think this is a pass for me today.

Speaker 4 (01:30:31):
Brian, Yeah, hey, I get it. No one's holding you
at gunpoint and saying.

Speaker 3 (01:30:36):
Who is it.

Speaker 6 (01:30:37):
I don't care to bet every game, guys, you don't
have to bet every game.

Speaker 4 (01:30:43):
Sorry, we need a sign no aside. No, yeah, no,
it's not like that. How about the basketball Iron Bowl?
How about Alabama? And I'm not expecting a whole lot
of defense in this one that the points were it
has come down. It was Alabama minus eight and a half.
Last night it's ticked down to Alabama minus six and

(01:31:05):
a half. I think with good reason. Alabama's defense is
just that bad, right, It's hard to win a game
by nine points when your defense is freaking brutal. And
that's at least what the betting market is telling you.
Where it might not be like oh War Eagle all day.
You know, it's just man Alabama's defense. It's it's hard
for them. They're gonna have to shoot the lights out,

(01:31:25):
and they shoot a ton of threes, but they're gonna
have to shoot the lights out. I think to even
cover six and a half, Auburn's desperate. They can score
it and Alabama can't stop it. That's that's the way
I see this game the most simplistic fashion Rich, what
are you looking at in the basketball iron? Do we
call the basketball like a diary ball?

Speaker 3 (01:31:42):
Yeah?

Speaker 4 (01:31:43):
It might be sacrilegious to even say that.

Speaker 3 (01:31:45):
I don't know, it might be, yeah, it might be.
You know, Nato, since taking over this program, he is
one of the fastest, most analytics driven offenses in college basketball.
If this game is fast pacing chaotic, It obviously really
favors Bama, and I think it could end up that
way because defensively, the issue here is Auburn's defense. When

(01:32:09):
you look at advanced metrics, this is a rough one
for Auburn. Their defense ranks around number one hundred, one
hundred and fifteen in adjusted defensive efficiency, near the bottom
defending the three point line. Bama happens to lead the
nation in three pointers made per game. It's just it's

(01:32:30):
not a good matchup for war Eagle. This is gonna
be like again, you know, if if like we're the
way we were talking before, like if you're forced to
go to the window where somebody goes pick a side,
like I'd rather lay them with Alabama because my trust,

(01:32:50):
my trust is on the tide finding a way to
making the pace too hot for Auburn to keep up with.

Speaker 6 (01:32:59):
Yeah, I think it's really tough to bet Bama against
the spread in any game unless they're a dog. I
just think this Alabama team is a very one They're
a very one dimensional team, and we're in that point
in the season now where defense.

Speaker 5 (01:33:14):
Matters like it does.

Speaker 6 (01:33:15):
They're like, there's things that I look at and they're
actually very good at preventing turnovers. Like that's one of
the things we look at, is how good at you
at holding on to the basketball? Like the four factors
in ken Pom, How good of a shooting team are you,
how good are you at limiting and forcing turnovers? How
good of a rebounding team are you? And how good
at you are getting to the line, Like when you

(01:33:36):
look at Ken Palm's metrics, those are the four cornerstones
of how effective you are at winning games. Alabama's kind
of at most of those categories. Like they're a really
good shooting team, obviously fantastic, they're actually good at limiting turnovers,
but on the defensive side, they're terrible. They're not a
great rebounding team, and they're not great at getting to
the line. So unless the threes are just falling in

(01:34:00):
cascading raining down from the heavens, Alabama is just not
a team that I'm very interested in betting on most days,
maybe the over, and then you get that rivalry factor, right,
I think this is a very tough day to be
betting high major college hoops. I think the best value
spots in the market on the final day of the
regular season tend to be in the totals market to

(01:34:21):
the under. They also tend to be in the prop
market if your state has you know, college props available
to you, and really you look to the mid major tournaments,
like that's where the professionals are hammering. Like, I have
a couple of services I subscribe to that that send
me their picks on a daily basis. None of them
were Alabama or you know North Carolina, dude, Like they

(01:34:42):
were all unc Ashville, Winthrop, like you know, Appalachian State.
Like those are the picks that I'm getting today from
the professional gamblers, because that's where the market tends to
be wrong this late in the year. The market tends
to have Alabama and Do pretty well buttoned up at
this stage of the season.

Speaker 4 (01:35:00):
Yeah, it's funny, man, Like, God bless these people that
break down these other I swear from time to time. Listen,
there are people that really follow these they just are
lesser conferences, right, they follow them religiously and they really
know their stuff. And then there are other people that
are just like I'm just gonna throw a dart at

(01:35:21):
the dartboard and who's gonna know any better?

Speaker 5 (01:35:23):
Really, you know what, I mean, and that's out.

Speaker 4 (01:35:25):
There too sometimes, so I always wonder that when I'm
getting a bunch of those picks. But hey, I get it.
I get it, And you're right, Jared. It's one of
those deals where I don't care what it is. Just
find value somewhere. I don't care if it's the Summit
League or the ACE, doesn't matter, right Like, they all
pay the same. Just gotta find winners. All right, We've
got Rich Hornberger, Penn State, All American, Jared Smith FSR

(01:35:48):
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Speaker 7 (01:36:08):
Pulled away by Washington, but his lead pack picked up
by Derek White, shove over, pressured, opened, three short, offensive, rebound,
two man slim Ju Tatum.

Speaker 4 (01:36:20):
There you go. The first points from Tatum right there,
as he got back from Achille surgery ten months removed
compliments of ninety eight five the Sports Hub Celtics Radio Network,
and I do have to as the Celtics put it
on the MAVs last night. I do have to mention
our trusted producer Bo Benson when he sent me this,
he did put unfortunately, you know.

Speaker 3 (01:36:40):
The Sheltic.

Speaker 4 (01:36:43):
I did like the personal touch of unfortunately it's gotta
be Tatum. You know, I don't want it to be,
but it kind of is. That's a funny message from Bo.
Very well done. All right? Coming up next? Am I crazy?
Don't answer that just yet. I actually prefer this. I
prefer one team to get a certain quarterback over another

(01:37:06):
certain quarterback. We'll see if you're on board or if
you're just like, this is radical even for you, Brian.
You know, we'll see what happens.

Speaker 3 (01:37:13):
Coming up.

Speaker 4 (01:37:14):
It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown presented by BETMGM. It
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Catch us in all of our Fox Sports Radio shows
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(01:37:34):
sure to select Fox Sports Radio as one of your
presets in the iHeart app so it'll always pop up
at the top of your screen. All right, So listen,
you guys. I've had some outside the box takes from
time to time, you know, and you two have doubted
my brilliance, and I hope you have learned your lap. Okay,

(01:37:55):
I just want to say that and foremost at times, yeah,
at times.

Speaker 3 (01:38:01):
Yeah, everybody, we brought up Alabama today and nobody mentioned
of the football season that.

Speaker 4 (01:38:08):
Nobody, nobody, nobody had I didn't even think about that
in the rearview mirror.

Speaker 3 (01:38:12):
Yeah, guys, so we've evolved.

Speaker 5 (01:38:15):
Water under the bridge or over the dam wherever. I
don't know what it's called.

Speaker 4 (01:38:19):
You know what that You brought that up, though, Rich,
You know.

Speaker 3 (01:38:25):
A year about a fool's gold.

Speaker 6 (01:38:28):
I mean, I think Alabama basketball is pretty fool's gold
if you ask.

Speaker 3 (01:38:33):
Don't you talk about the time that way? Yeah?

Speaker 4 (01:38:36):
I did mention that Ohio State was overrated and they
were one and done.

Speaker 3 (01:38:40):
You know, yeah, they were. They were very overrated. They
were overrated.

Speaker 4 (01:38:45):
Lost in the Big Ten championship game. Also, you know,
I watched that game.

Speaker 3 (01:38:48):
Yeah, I saw it happen.

Speaker 6 (01:38:50):
That Indiana team is pretty good, pretty good, but he's
scoring ten points against that pretty good Indiana team.

Speaker 4 (01:38:55):
That's that's embarrassing right there. That's the overrated Ohio State crew.
Although so those are some of my credentials, but we
give you the NFL. Here, the Vikings, they have a
like no vacancy they have a vacancy sign outside of
their hotel right where it's like, we need a quarterback here,

(01:39:16):
like come on in quarterbacks right and the hot rumor
now is Kyler Murray, the Arizona Cardinals quarterback to go
to the Vikings. And I love this side note where
Arizona's like, if we can't find a trade partner, we're
gonna release you.

Speaker 3 (01:39:32):
It's like, who's.

Speaker 4 (01:39:34):
Gonna trade for Kyler Murray?

Speaker 3 (01:39:36):
Now?

Speaker 4 (01:39:36):
Like why, I don't understand why that would even be
out there. That's just weird to me. But anyway, he's
gonna be released and a possible landing spot would be
the Minnesota Vikings. You guys, be one hundred percent honest
that I know you are on this show. You can
call me crazy if you want. I actually think there's
another quarterback that would work out better for the Vikings

(01:39:56):
that doesn't have nearly the name recognition that Kyler Murray has.
That would be Mac Jones. I would rather have Mac
Jones as the next Vikings quarterback than I would Kyler Murray.
And here's the thing. When you look at and we
could go through all the stats and all of this
and all of that, it comes down to Mac Jones
is a better passer. I think that's what the offense

(01:40:18):
can use more than Kyler Murray's, you know, dual threat
extend plays, pick up yards with his legs. He's been
banged up quite a bit lately. You know, you look
at this last season five games played twenty twenty three season,
eight games played. That's not what the Vikings need. They
need consistency. They had nine you know, aka JJ McCarthy.

(01:40:40):
He was banged up all last season. They need a
guy that's there sixteen seventeen games as their starting quarterback.
Are you convinced Kyler Murray's going to be that guy?

Speaker 1 (01:40:49):
I'm not.

Speaker 4 (01:40:50):
And what's interesting about these two quarterbacks. And I don't
want to make it sound like I think Mac Jones
walks on water, because I don't. But you saw last
season when he has a competent supporting cast, how much
better he is all of a sudden. I think he's
a legitimate candidate to be a Sam Darnold type quarterback,
where you surround Sam with actual talent and all of

(01:41:11):
a sudden, Wow, he looks a lot better. That's Mac Jones.
He's a guy that can throw accurate passes with anticipation.
He's a good passer, and he played well for the
forty nine ers when brock Perty was banged up. You
look at that supporting cast with the vikings. That gives
him a real shot to be productive. And it's funny
when you look at Kyler in its simplest form, All

(01:41:34):
of a sudden, Kyler, it's like the old MTV show
pimped that ride or pimp my ride. You know where
he go and they spruce up your ride, and it's
like whoa. For some reason, this offseason has like pimped
out Kyler's credentials. I don't know how he's turned into
a difference maker in one off season when he played
five games last season. Have you not watched this guy

(01:41:55):
for like six seasons be mediocre at best? That's what
I've watched, you know, And So we look at Kyler,
and we look at the ceiling, we look at mac Jones,
we look at the floor, and I just don't think
that's fair. I think you got to look at both
ceilings and both floors, and I look at the passing

(01:42:15):
ability with Mac Jones with a competent supporting cast, and
I think that he's a better fit. If you go
back last thing, I'll say, Rich you can go, yeah, yeah,
you go back to his Patriot days Mac Jones, and
he need to put up huge numbers. Leading receiver his
rookie season, Jacoby Myers, who's good, not dynamic, his leading receiver,
second season, Jacoby Myers leading receiver, third season, Pop Douglas.

(01:42:40):
Pop Douglas is your leading receiver? Are you kidding that?
You got a guy named Justin Jefferson? Now, I think
Mac Jones would be productive. I think he'd be really good.
I think he'd be light years better than JJ McCarthy,
and I actually think he'd be better than Kyler Murray.
There that's my spield, my crazy.

Speaker 3 (01:42:55):
Yeah, I know you're not. I like a lot of
what you said, especially fit scheme. Fit is the most
important thing in the NFL. It's more important than talent.
You can take a fairly untalented quarterback in the right
scheme and it can look pretty good. I e. Ryan
Tannehill with the Tennessee Titans when Vrabel was there. They

(01:43:19):
built that team to fit his capabilities, and that was
a pretty good run for Vrabel with the Tennessee Titans.
That's the reason why he earned a second act at
head coach and took a team in his first year
with the Patriots as head coach all the way to
the Super Bowl because he understands how to build a
scheme around the capabilities of his players. Kevin O'Connell does
the same thing. Obviously, Kyle Shanahan does that as well.

(01:43:41):
That's the reason why he was interested in mac Jones
being on the roster in the first place. So reason
why he drafted brock Purty in the first place, it's
because they look and value scheme over talent. Now here's
there's a lot of upside with a mac Jones site signing. However,

(01:44:01):
from a court of public opinion, this is the only
thing I'll say about signing Kyler Murray over mac Jones. Yeah,
you can make the argument for better playmaking capabilities out
of Kyler Murray if things break down, but does that
fit the system? Not necessarily, that's more nuanced, that's more
you break glass in case of emergency stuff. But I'm

(01:44:26):
strictly talking about what the market is going to tell
you to do. If you're the Vikings brass who, by
the way, are operating without a general manager. Right now,
all eyes on Kevin O'Connell. If you decide if you
will elect to go with Mac Jones, you're putting your
job on the line. You are, You're saying, hey, we're

(01:44:46):
gonna be great with Mac, and if it doesn't work out,
there's a lot of pressure on you. Now, if you
sign Kyler Murray after being cut to a vet minimum
contract where the Cardinals are paying the bulk of his
salary this upcoming season, low risk, extremely high reward, and
that's a system he would probably want to play. And
you just mentioned throwing a ball to a guy of

(01:45:07):
the likes of JJ Justin Jefferson, all of a sudden,
it takes a little bit of the pressure off of
the people who are in charge of making the decision
to bring in that quarterback. So here's it's like it's
it is a sport and the best or the right
decisions aren't always made. Because Kevin O'Connell's got a family defeed.

(01:45:29):
You know, he wants to keep his job in Minnesota.
He wants to keep his kids in the private school
and keep his wife happy at home.

Speaker 6 (01:45:36):
Right.

Speaker 3 (01:45:36):
You know that only happens if he keeps his job,
and you're gonna take a huge gamble and a huge
risk bringing him mac Jones in terms of the court
of public perception and from the ownership standpoint for opinion,
if you elect to go for mac over Kyler, so
it's a little bit of a buyer beware scenario.

Speaker 6 (01:45:58):
This is a really interesting discussion. I'm actually glad Brian
mentioned the mac Jones argument. Let's throw the Kyler Murray
stuff to the side, because I think he's gonna be
released and he's going to be a very low risk
acquisition for somebody, And I don't know if it's gonna
be Minnesota. I think when we picked up by someone,
I don't know who. But the mac Jones scenario is
interesting because he is under contract with the Niners and

(01:46:19):
it's a very low risk contract, and considering how important
the quarterback position is and how injury prone brock Purdy
has been. It's you would be like, I think the
Niners are well within their rights to ask a lot
in return for a relative, I mean relatively a very
cheap quarterback with pretty high upside. I would say, considering

(01:46:40):
again how important that position is and his base salary
is one point four million nine that is nothing in
the NFL world, especially considering the.

Speaker 5 (01:46:50):
Salary cap just went up.

Speaker 6 (01:46:52):
So the Niners are going to ask for something very
valuable back in return for Mac if they do end
up parting ways with him.

Speaker 5 (01:46:59):
So Minnesota has to ask again.

Speaker 6 (01:47:00):
It goes back to the Max Frosby and goes back
to any scenario that we talk about in the NFL
trading world.

Speaker 5 (01:47:05):
What is the cost?

Speaker 6 (01:47:07):
So if the Vikings have to give up like a
second or third round.

Speaker 5 (01:47:11):
Pick for Max Jones, is that worth the squeeze?

Speaker 6 (01:47:15):
And it kind of reminds, you know what, This reminds
me of very similar situation happened in twenty eighteen. And
I remember this because I was a Jets fan and
I remember the exact scenario how it played out. Remember,
the Jets had like nine quarterbacks on their roster. One
of them was Teddy Bridgewater, who was fantastic in the preseason,
and the Jets put him on display in the preseason
because they wanted to get some value back for remember

(01:47:37):
they just drafted Sam Darnold. Well, they ended up getting
a third round pick for the Saints for Teddy Bridgewater. Like,
that's a pretty decent return for a guy who was
going to be a backup quarterback that year. So it's
very interesting to see how the Niners play this because
we know John Lynch could be very aggressive when it
comes to wheeling and dealing. I think Jones is very

(01:47:58):
valuable because of his cheap price to and what he
can do for your roster as a veteran quarterback that
can step in and start right away. So I think
what you do is you put him on display. I
think they're gonna be pumping up his value. You're gonna
be seeing maybe if he on the roster come training camp, preseason,
you're gonna you're gonna see a lot of Mac Jones.
You'll be hearing a lot of reports about how good

(01:48:18):
he is. We'll see if the Vikings want to wait
that long. And that's the other piece to this that
Rich mentioned. They don't have a general manager, so how
do they handle this scenario? Do they give up draft
assets now for a guy that maybe the new GM's
not even gonna like like it's just it's a really
interesting scenario that's gonna play out over the next few
months in Minnesota.

Speaker 3 (01:48:37):
Yeah it is.

Speaker 4 (01:48:38):
It's an interesting spot, no doubt about that. And yeah,
you have to do this side by side. What's it
gonna cost, How do they fit in the system, how
productive do they you know, project to be?

Speaker 5 (01:48:50):
All of that.

Speaker 4 (01:48:51):
So you gotta do, you know a pros and cons
with both of these guys, Kyler Murray in mac Jones,
because yeah, there's a solid argument for the forty nine
ers where they're like, we really don't want to part
with mac Jones. Let's just say the phone rang and
it's the Vikings and they're like, hey, what would it
take for us to get mac Jones. We're looking like
at a three, and the Niners think is it worth

(01:49:11):
it for us to get a three for Mac? When
Purdy's been banged up here and there? They might not
think it is so, but I look at it the
other way too. If you're the Vikings and look at
what's happened around the league all of a sudden. The
Colts think that they found a legitimate quarterback in Daniel Jones,
at least he was before he got hurt last season.
Time will tell if that remains true. The Seahawks certainly

(01:49:34):
think they found a legitimate quarterback with Sam Darnold, you know,
and they just want a Super Bowl. So if it's
a it's a three to get Mac Jones. If you're
the Vikings and you're like, nah, little too costly right there,
I don't know what you're thinking, man, because I think
mac Jones fits in that offense. He's got way better
weapons to throw to than he's had at any stop

(01:49:57):
minus the forty nine ers last year, and they were
banged up. It's not like they had their full compliment
of players here. But and I just look at this too.
When I look at Kyler Murray, I don't want to
make him sound like he stinks, because I don't think
he does. I just think he's been average at best.
When you go he's had Trey McBride, who is a baller.
He's had Marvin Harrison Junior, who's the top five pick.

(01:50:20):
Marvin Harrison Junior is done next to nothing. Do you
think if Marvin Harrison Junior had a top ten quarterback,
top five quarterback, his stats would look the way they do.
I don't think that for a second. So I don't
know that Kyler Murray can get the best out of
this Vikings offense. But our trusted producer, Bo Benson, he's
got something here.

Speaker 3 (01:50:38):
What do you have?

Speaker 10 (01:50:39):
I just think you guys have all mentioned something that
makes this all All three of you guys have made
the point. I think why the Vikings are gonna sign
Kyler because, like Rich said, he's cheap, right, He's gonna
be on the minimum because the Cardinals are paying most
of his salary. The Vikings have been cutting a bunch
of guys this week because they had to get under
the cap.

Speaker 5 (01:50:57):
And I don't like I agree with you, Brian.

Speaker 10 (01:50:59):
I think mac Jones is probably a better quarterback for
what the Vikings want to do, but their GM got
fired because he could not draft. So the last thing
they need is to give up draft capital to get
a quarterback when they need to get younger and cheaper
at positions all over the field. And so I think
you just take a flyer on a guy who was
a first overall pick and hope that it works out.

(01:51:21):
But yeah, I think mac Jones is I think is
a great idea, but I'm not sure how much the
Niners want to move him, as to Jared's point, because
Rock Perdy gets hurt every year. So it's really just
a confluence of things where maybe there's a better path,
but I think the Kyler path is the easiest one
for them to take.

Speaker 4 (01:51:37):
Yeah, I get it. It's funny too, the timing of it.
There was a mac Jones put out like this highlight
thing of the trip to I forget where it was,
but it was like a one minute little and he's
got the dad bod going.

Speaker 3 (01:51:50):
You know.

Speaker 4 (01:51:50):
That's how people think of mac Jones. They're like, I
could beat him in a forty and I haven't run
a forty in you know, twenty years. That's how people
think of mac Jones. And I get it. But I think,
man like, I'm all for quarterbacks that can move, and
they bring that element. Sometimes it comes back to bite you.
I think it has with Kyler Murray at times where

(01:52:11):
he's been injury prone and no one looks at the
downside of mobility and they look at a guy like
mac Jones who's immobile and They're like, yeah, you're kind
of like a dinosaur. You're like dial up, man. This
is a high speed NFL Internet world, and I just
don't look. Matthew Stafford just won MVP. You're not winning
any agility contests anytime soon. There's still plenty of room

(01:52:34):
for quarterbacks who don't bring mobility to the table. Just
throw dimes, throw with anticipation, throw with a competent supporting cast,
and you can do work in this league. And I
think matt couldn't do it with the vikings.

Speaker 3 (01:52:48):
I agree again, better fit better, better. I would say
potential for consistency offensively, but most likely not gonna happen
because of how the decision will be perceived. Whether look,

(01:53:08):
mac Jones will be a low cost option. Also, it's
not like you're gonna break the bank footing the bill.
But you have to remember you just whiffed on JJ McCarthy.
Public sentiment in Minnesota is not thrilled with that. It's
a quarterback driven league. And when you bring in, as
Bo perfectly presented it, a former first overall draft pick

(01:53:30):
who has an unbelievably high ceiling in terms of playmaking ability,
and you pair him with an offensive guru for a
head coach. It feels more catalytic than bringing in purer
wow Mac Jones, you know, like he just sort of
feels like you just missed out on the showcase. Oh

(01:53:53):
I'm sorry, you were over by seventeen dollars. The price
is wrong, you know. So it's just it's just unfortunately,
like I said earlier, in the NFL, we lose sight
of the fact that this is a business. Yes, these
are teams, right, you know we talk about the NFL

(01:54:15):
is changing the rules. Well, no, these human beings who
own these teams are making the game more palatable from
an offensive standpoint, or they're protecting their highest paid assets
on the football field with rule changes to protect quarterbacks.
Like these are human beings making these decisions. And when
Kevin O'Connell when he looks himself in the mirror, when

(01:54:38):
he wakes up in the morning, right and he's shaven
his face, and he's got a toddling little toddler or
I don't know how old his kids are now, but
he's got a family that he's got a feed and
he's thinking like, gosh, I would really like macium my system,
but I can't face the public and say Mac Jones
is the guy when Kyler Murty, we can sign Kyler

(01:55:00):
Murray for vet minimum, we gotta do it, and I've
got to make it work.

Speaker 6 (01:55:06):
I would agree, because again, the Niners are holding all
the cards here. And if I was the Niners and
John Lynch, why would you trade mac Jones now today
when you can hold on to him he's under contract
for a minus school price, hold on to him for
the entire offseason, wait for a team to get Really,
this is what the Jets did again in twenty eighteen

(01:55:28):
when they drafted Sam Darnold. They waited for a team
to get very desperate, and then the Saints said, yeah,
we'll give you a third round pick for Teddy Bridgewater.
So and I think mac Jones frankly might be worth
more than Teddy Bridgewater.

Speaker 5 (01:55:39):
So you wait.

Speaker 6 (01:55:41):
You hold on to that value until the opportune time.

Speaker 5 (01:55:44):
And it's not now.

Speaker 6 (01:55:46):
It's not now because the Vikings have options and they
could say, well, we don't really need to give you
a third round or whatever round pick for mac Jones
because we can go sign Kyler Murray and we can
make our fan base happy. We can have an opportunity
to get better by signing him and not have to
give up a draft asset for it. So I think
the unique scenario here, Right, there's three very unique scenarios

(01:56:06):
here that make this a tricky handycap. One, the Vikings
don't have a GM like that is the number one like,
they do not have a GM, so.

Speaker 5 (01:56:14):
We don't even know who's making the actual decision.

Speaker 6 (01:56:16):
Two is because mac Jones is under contract and requires
trade value to acquire him or another player. And then
three the fact that there is a former number one
pick Kyler Murray available for league minim. Like, there's just
a lot of really interesting factors that are kind of
confounding together to make this a really tough decision. I
don't think this is going to be decided upon before

(01:56:37):
the draft. That's my personal opinion. I think we'll get
the Kyler Murray release. He will sign somewhere if it's
not the Vikings. I don't think they're going to trade
for mac Jones before the draft. Maybe I'm wrong, I'm
wrong a lot, but I think Jones will stick around
in San Francisco through the summer and then when the
value is at the peak, wait for the opportune time

(01:56:59):
to trade for mister Jones.

Speaker 4 (01:57:01):
All right, super super fast point because I know we
got to go just a one word answer. Who do
you think would work better for the Vikings?

Speaker 5 (01:57:10):
Mac or Kyler?

Speaker 4 (01:57:11):
What do you say?

Speaker 3 (01:57:12):
Rich Mac?

Speaker 4 (01:57:13):
What do you think? Jared agreed?

Speaker 5 (01:57:15):
I would say Matt because of Kevin O'Connell system.

Speaker 4 (01:57:17):
And so that's the thing, Like we could be wrong,
but the Vikings aren't willing to potentially part with a
third round pick for the quarterback they think will work better.
That's crazy to me. That's insane to me, you know,
like you don't want to go bargain shopping with your quarterback.
But we'll see how it unfolds. It's probably gonna be
Kyler because yeah, all right, we've got Rich orn Berger,

(01:57:40):
Penn State, All American, Jared Smith FSR betting analyst. I'm Brian.

Speaker 8 (01:57:43):
No.

Speaker 4 (01:57:44):
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it in rapid fire. Coming up next, We've got a
bushel of picks. We'll share them with you. It's Fox

(01:58:06):
Sports Radios Countdown presented by BETMGM. It is Fox Sports
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Speaker 3 (01:58:26):
Again.

Speaker 4 (01:58:26):
Just search Fox Sports Radio wherever you get your podcasts,
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on X see our picks, our videos or smiling faces,

(01:58:50):
all that good stuff. Top of the hour up on Game,
LeVar Arrington, TJ Hushman, Zada, Plaxico Buris. In less than
eight American minutes, they've got you covered, locked right, here
on Fox Sports Radio. All right, we got some picks
to make. Let's do it.

Speaker 1 (01:59:07):
Rapid fire.

Speaker 4 (01:59:09):
All right, shared, we start with you with something you like.

Speaker 6 (01:59:12):
Sun Belt Quarterfinal Southern miss app State under one thirty
five and a half. Two good defenses, two bad offenses.
They just played about six weeks ago. The game landed
one thirty three tournament feel. Hopefully it stays under this
one as well. Vanderbilt plus three and a half at Tennessee.
No Nate Emmett for Tennessee today out with injury. The
Doors just played the balls. About two weeks ago, they

(01:59:33):
lost by for at home. They didn't shoot it well
in that game. Ammett had thirteen and nine, so he's
a big point, especially on the glass. I think Vandy
bounces back here, keeps it close, maybe even wins out
right in Knoxville, and my.

Speaker 5 (01:59:44):
Favorite player of the day.

Speaker 6 (01:59:45):
We're gonna lay it with Miami on the money line today,
they're about a one and a half point favorite. It's
minus one thirty five on the money line. Anytime it's
one and a half, I just lay the money line.
I don't want to win by one and lose. Louisgo's
terrible on the road and they are heavily reliant on
the three ball.

Speaker 5 (01:59:57):
Came to a solid team, so I'll take Miami on
the money line.

Speaker 3 (02:00:00):
Okay, the dog Prince is back. As Jared Smith pointed
out earlier, Oklahoma State plus thirteen and a half today.
Houston is elite defensively, but they play very controlled, slower style.
I like the dogs in this one. I'll take Oklahoma
State Virginia Tech plus eleven and a half in state
rivalry game. Those ten to state tight give me BA

(02:00:23):
Tech plus eleven and a half against Virginia Savior plus
thirteen and a half. They quietly covered big spreads against
Villanova multiple multiple times in recent matchups. So give me
Xavier plus thirteen and a half today.

Speaker 4 (02:00:38):
Okay, I'll go quick so they don't have a Swiss
Give me BYU minus two and a half against the
top ten team at home laying daph Sir, sign me up.
I think they show up. Let's unleash the bonsa. Give
me North Carolina plus seventeen and a half. Way too
many points. Give me Arizona State always state under one
forty seven and a half.

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