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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Are you ready to witness football?

Speaker 2 (00:03):
Fans?

Speaker 3 (00:04):
Welcome to the biggest tailgate party in the nation. That
me bro Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by
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the information you need to watch your team win.

Speaker 2 (00:24):
Let's go.

Speaker 3 (00:26):
We're here to break it all down. Look, God, this
is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bett
emg App. No, we're live from your tailgate. Here's Brian No,
former Penn State All American Rich Hornberger and FSR betting
analyst Jared Smith.

Speaker 4 (00:47):
Oh what is going on? Welcome in here, full slate
of college action to get to and I'll tell you what.
We started off with. Good vibes out of the gates
with our guy rich O.

Speaker 2 (00:59):
Yeah, oh that's right.

Speaker 4 (01:01):
Yeah, it's the what would you call it, the by
annual voyage to Hawaii?

Speaker 2 (01:07):
Is that? Yeah?

Speaker 4 (01:08):
Correct terminology?

Speaker 2 (01:09):
Right?

Speaker 1 (01:09):
Yeah, And unfortunately it's gonna end pretty soon here because
you know in conference you have homes and homes scheduled
against Hawaii when you're in the Mountain West. However, San
Diego State is about to leave the Mountain West and
join the PAC twelve.

Speaker 2 (01:26):
So Hawaii no longer.

Speaker 1 (01:27):
Is going to be on the schedule, So all good
things must come to an end.

Speaker 4 (01:32):
Gentleman, at least you're there this year, you know, like,
at least you're there this year. It's not a home
game this Oh no, that's good.

Speaker 2 (01:40):
Yeah, this is pretty cool.

Speaker 1 (01:41):
So yeah, for those who are catching up on the fly,
I am the color analyst for San Diego State. I
do their radio radio analyst work, and when the team travels,
I travel, and so they go to Hawaii. I go
to Hawaii. And to answer your question, Jared, I think
this is the fourth time I've been on the islands
with the Aztec's. I've been out here many times. Other

(02:05):
than that, we have some family out here we're gonna
be visiting. So the whole crew, the whole Ornberger gang,
came out to Hawaii. So I'm on a rooftop parking
lot overlooking the beach, which is insane. I'm like looking
at the roof of a church over the top of
that to the water. Right now, it's pitch dark. It's
some part of four o'clock in the morning. The Pacific

(02:26):
Ocean is lapping against the sands of Ykiki Beach, and
here I am shouting into the void at you guys
from a million miles away. But we're we're look football
waits for nobody, and so we're gonna get into it.

Speaker 4 (02:41):
By the way, I don't want to be selfish here rich,
but I do think San Diego State owes it. It's
success to me this season.

Speaker 1 (02:48):
I would argue, you're right, you would you doubted them
when they played.

Speaker 4 (02:52):
Col My gosh, dude, like so they got wrecked by
the Koog's right, they lost convincingly to Washington State and
they were one and one at that point in the season.
I'm like, yeah, I'll lay the whatever. It was two
touchdowns with Cal at home and somehow, well, San Diego
State was at home. Somehow Cal gets shut out thirty

(03:13):
four to nothing, and San Diego State hasn't looked back.
Do they lost the games?

Speaker 2 (03:18):
Can I be honest?

Speaker 5 (03:19):
They have an outside shot to make the Collegewell Playoff,
they really do, especially have to Memphis losing last night.

Speaker 1 (03:24):
There's a growing awareness James Madison has to play Washington State.
They've been good. But yeah, if you remember the rules
for the new expanded playoffs, the group of five, which
is any basically any conference outside of the Power four,
and you say group of five, it may include the

(03:46):
PAC twelve, although I think Washington State and Oregon State,
who are the only two remaining members technically of the
PAC twelve right now, they would have to win in
as an at large bit if they could. But anyways,
going back to what I was saying, if you are
the conference champion of any of the group of five conferences,

(04:08):
and you're the highest ranked champion, you have an automatic
bid into the College Football Playoff. And San Diego State
sitting right now at seven and one, potentially winning this conference,
they do have a shot to be the representative out
of the Group five to get that automatic bid.

Speaker 4 (04:29):
It's crazy, man, and hats off to them. Number two
scoring defense in the country like Ohio State's number one,
the Aztecs are number two, so hey, hats off to them.
They only allow ten points per game. It's funny, right
if you think big picture, if you go back to
the beginning of the season, like any season, there are
so many times where you circle back and you're like,

(04:50):
why did I think that? Why did I exactly? Why
was I convinced the Aztecs suck? Why was I convinced
I don't know if I was, but why was I like, Oh,
Florida State, here we go. It's like, no, not not really.
You know, like LS you remember LSU, big win on
the road. We thought against Clemson, We're like, whoa, look
out here we go.

Speaker 6 (05:09):
B k T.

Speaker 4 (05:12):
Yeah, and here they are. Yeah right, top ten. Well
that's a good segue, Jared, I'm glad you mentioned that. Yeah,
very nice. So College Football Playoff Rankings first edition. They
came out this week on Tuesday, and of course there's
sometimes mass panic in the streets, you know how it goes.
Any any big problems, any big agreements, anything that you

(05:34):
take away from the first iteration of the playoff rankings
where you said, yes, job well done, or what in
the world are you thinking with this ranking over here?
Anything that you said like that?

Speaker 2 (05:47):
Let me think.

Speaker 1 (05:50):
You know, What's what's interesting about the CFP is I'm
always amazed by my reaction to it before we get
into like where the seating actually is and who deserves
to be as high as they are and as low
as they are. What always occurs to me is how
much I care about this list because because you shouldn't.

Speaker 7 (06:12):
The first one, or just in general, the committee doing it.

Speaker 2 (06:15):
Obviously, at some point you have to care.

Speaker 1 (06:18):
If you're if you're interested in college football at all,
you do care about the list, and it becomes more
and more important the closer you get down the stretch.
But I mean, at this point in the season, their
initial list makes no difference to what the outcomes of
the season is going to be. Yeah, I mean we can,
we can act like it's super important, and we will

(06:41):
when it becomes super important. But this initial list, if
you have some real belly aching over it, don't worry.

Speaker 2 (06:49):
It's gonna change a lot before the end of the season.

Speaker 1 (06:51):
Now, there are certain things that are kind of feel
like they're etched in stone, like Ohio State. I mean,
unless something goes horribly horribly wrong, I think they can
you can say they're safely in first place for the
remainder of the season. You know, Georgia feels safe as
a top five team. Alabama feels safe as a top

(07:13):
five team. There are certain teams that you can say, yeah,
these are areas where these are landing spots where you
think they probably will land. And then as we creep
closer and closer to the actual playoff seating matters a
great deal because that's how the playoff field will work out.
Who's playing who in the first round, et cetera. But
this initial list, I mean, am I completely off base here?

(07:34):
I always have this reaction like, oh, why is that
team so low? Or geez, they're way too high. And
then in the end it doesn't really matter in terms
of what the end of the season is gonna look like.
This is just this is just a throw spaghetti at
the wall. Will see what sticks toward the end of the.

Speaker 7 (07:51):
Year, agreed.

Speaker 5 (07:52):
And that's why anyone who is up in arms over
this just just chill bro let the season play out.
I think it's very hard, and I do this every week.
I've been doing this since the start of the season.
I could give you my college football playoff predictions from
literally week one on. I had no idea what I
was doing. I was just throwing darts against the wall.
Now we're gonna get the things that need to be

(08:16):
sorted will get sorted. For example, people are upset that
Notre Dames ahead of Texas and Oklahoma, right, don't worry
both of those Both Texas and Oklahoma will get to
prove it. They both will get to prove it right.
Oklahoma has played Bama. Next week, Texas goes to Georgia
and then plays A and M. We'll find out how
good those teams are. Don't worry about where they're ranked now.

(08:37):
I think what the committee told us yesterday or Tuesday
was right.

Speaker 7 (08:42):
Now.

Speaker 5 (08:43):
Notre Dame's better, their resume is better, their quality.

Speaker 7 (08:47):
Loss is better, but it could change.

Speaker 5 (08:51):
And I think anyone who is upset over the rankings
as they are constructed today take a piece of advice.

Speaker 7 (08:58):
From Aaron Rodgers. Relax. It will get sorted out now.

Speaker 5 (09:02):
When we get to the end of November and then
you still have a gripe and all the games are done,
then we can really dig into Okay, this resume is
better than this resume, and we could do the micro
surgery that we need to do in order to figure
out who's better.

Speaker 7 (09:19):
But right now, it's.

Speaker 5 (09:20):
Not even Thanksgiving, and the teams that people are upset
about not being ahead of Notre Dame will have a
very ample opportunity to make that jump, but right now
they're not. Right now, it appears that Notre Dame's probably
gonna finish ten and two, Texas and Oklahoma are gonna
probably finish nine and three at best in that world. Yes,

(09:44):
Notre Dame deserves to get in period.

Speaker 7 (09:45):
End of story.

Speaker 5 (09:46):
I Brian, I thought the fact that Notre Dame was
the highest two rand team was important to me because
I do think Texas O Oklahoma are going to have
to upset the apple cart in order to get in
front of them.

Speaker 7 (09:58):
But it could happen. Stranger things have so happened.

Speaker 4 (10:00):
It's funny you mentioned Aaron Rodgers in his famous relax
it could apply to his brother, His brother Jordan Rodgers.
He's on ESPN and he was pretty fired up about
the Irish being ranked higher than Texas and Oklahoma.

Speaker 8 (10:15):
Notre Dame has one top twenty five win, Texas has two,
Oklahoma has two. Right, their losses I think are even
better for Texas and Oklahoma. So I think this one
again was just like that made no sense putting you
rank them fine, Texas, Oklahoma, Notre Dame.

Speaker 3 (10:31):
It'll all short itself out.

Speaker 8 (10:32):
But that showed you that they're looking at the wrong things,
not valuing wins on the field as much.

Speaker 4 (10:37):
As they were in this area of oh the eye test.

Speaker 8 (10:39):
But they look so much better right now.

Speaker 4 (10:41):
Well, he mentioned in passing right there while bashing the Irish.
I mean, heaven forbid, what is he.

Speaker 2 (10:46):
Doing right there?

Speaker 7 (10:46):
But I just disagree with his argument.

Speaker 4 (10:48):
His arguments bad where he said even their losses like
Texas and Oklahoma have better larest than Notre Dame.

Speaker 9 (10:55):
Texas lost to the Gators, Like what is he talking about? Like, Okay,
let's do a side by side thing if we're just
focusing on the better losses, which sounds weird, but it's
a thing for the committee, right.

Speaker 7 (11:08):
Is a thing? No, honestly, I think it's more of
a thing than the quality wins. Brian, It's weird, but.

Speaker 4 (11:11):
It's very weird. So Texas they lost to Ohio State
to begin the season, Notre Dame. One of their losses
was against Texas A and M. Both of those teams
are in the top three. There are some people that
thought Texas A and M might be higher ranked than
Ohio State. That's an Indiana, right, There's some people that
thought that anyway, they're in the same cul de sac
if you will, right then, like we said, there's Miami,

(11:35):
the Miami loss that Notre Dame had. Miami is still
in the top twenty five. They're eighteenth. Some people think
it's a little bit low, but they're still ranked. Meanwhile,
Texas lost to Florida. How in your right mind can
you say Texas had two better losses than Notre Dame.
That's not even close to being accurate.

Speaker 1 (11:53):
Yeah, it's pretty amazing. How when you put things through
the lens of opinion, right, so subjectivity, anybody can make
any argument. You don't have to worry about making sense.
You can just make an argument. And so if you
look at a team and you say, hey, I think

(12:14):
this team is ranked higher than this team, and then
you answer the question why with well, because they're a
better team, Well that argument doesn't hold water because you
have to have facts. You have to have basis of evidence.
You need to present a case. If you just think
they're better, well that's that's fine and good. But those

(12:35):
players bled for that, those wins and those losses. Those
players sweat and they go through toil. Those coaches worked hard,
there were sleepless nights, like you have to have some
better reason. Well I just like Texas better, you know,
I just think Notre Dame's better. Well, you have to
have some some level of proof. But there are certain Look,

(12:58):
there's there's a lot of people who want to, you know,
be very open about their opinion, and everybody's entitled to
have their opinion, and I'm willing to hear any opinion.
But if you don't attack this thing factually, if you're
just going to make an argument for a team because
you like them better, you're not going to get a
lot of people to listen to you these days, because
there's too much evidence for teams. And I don't want

(13:20):
to say who actually deserve it, but in some cases,
who do actually deserve to be in the college football
playoff conversation who either aren't or are going to have
to wait until you know, the rest of the nation's
you know, subjective voices catch up and join in on
the facts as opposed to just being just arguing a

(13:44):
brand or arguing a style of football. They'd rather seeing
the college football playoff rather than you know, one that
is currently being represented.

Speaker 2 (13:52):
So it's it's.

Speaker 1 (13:53):
An interesting thing, especially early in this debate. I think
some of the conversations, some of the arguments become critz
still lies later on, But right now, all that's in
its infancy because we have miles to go before the
playoff bracket is even set.

Speaker 5 (14:08):
Yeah, we just need to wait until Oklahoma loses Tobama
and Texas loses to Georgia and it'll all sort itself out,
right like and and I've struggled with this too. My
exercise that I've done this year, I have not constructed
my rankings based off of the current form. I have
constructed my rankings every week based on how I project

(14:29):
the season to finish. So it's an exercise I'm trying
to spin things forward. I don't think that's what the
committee's doing here, but maybe a little bit, maybe they say,
you know what, prove it, Texas, go on the road
and be Georgia, and when you do that, will we'll
move you up. And maybe they're giving sarkis In and

(14:50):
company a little motivation here, right, a little bulletin board material.
But also maybe they're just going through the mental exercise
like I've been doing for the lif last ten weeks,
realizing that whatever I'm constructing today is going to work
itself out over the next three weeks in the SEC.
So it doesn't matter what my rankings are today. The

(15:11):
only thing that matters is who am I giving the
respect to? Is the highest two loss team right now?
It's Notre Dame. Maybe that changes in a week.

Speaker 7 (15:18):
That will always be what.

Speaker 5 (15:20):
I look at as the determining factor for who the
committee feels is the best at large team. Who is
the highest ranked two loss That should be your number
one like microscope, pull out the microscope, Sherlock Holmes. Who
is the committee putting as the number one two loss
team every week? That should be your benchmark for Okay,
this is how they view the resumes because I think

(15:43):
the top five is pretty easy, like even the top
seven guys think it's I think it's pretty cut and
dry right now, Like we know who top the top
five teams of the country. I've said there's four the
whole year. I've said it's Ohio State, Indiana, BAM, and Georgia.
I think the national champion will be one of those
four teams. You give me those four, you can.

Speaker 7 (15:59):
Take the field.

Speaker 5 (15:59):
I feel like I've got the national champion in my
back pock up.

Speaker 7 (16:02):
You want to say A and M.

Speaker 5 (16:03):
Is an upstart this year, perhaps, I think in the
big moment, I'm not. I don't know if I fully
trust that quarterback.

Speaker 7 (16:08):
We'll see.

Speaker 5 (16:09):
I could be wrong, but I have a really solid
top four the rest of it is all kind of chaos,
and I hope it all kind of settles itself out
over the next few weeks.

Speaker 4 (16:17):
Well, I'll just say real quick, and I think that
it's interesting where if you go back to last year,
the two teams in the National Championship, Ohio State and
Notre Dame, neither one of them had a first round by.
So imagine if both teams in the championship game had
a first round by, I think this would be looked
at a lot differently. Or take a team like Oregon.

(16:39):
Right Oregon is ninth in the pecking order at seven
and one, so they're gonna have to leap frog a
number of teams to be in that top four to
earn a bye.

Speaker 2 (16:50):
You know.

Speaker 4 (16:50):
Like that part of it I think is significant, although
you're not really hearing that much emphasis on it, right,
Imagine if we have the next let's just I don't
know this next three straight years both teams in the
championship Game earn a first round by, there's gonna be
even more of like, hey, look at the top four
as its fans right now, and then maybe like through

(17:11):
six or seven, maybe have a shot at the first
round by realistically, right. But that's one of the things
I think is I still think a first round by matters,
especially depending on which specific teams we're talking about here.
And remember it's not the goofy rules that it was
last year, where you know.

Speaker 7 (17:29):
Now that the.

Speaker 4 (17:31):
Yeah it's s's gonna play a real twelve, right, it's
the top four, right, top four get those buyes as
it should be. And so yeah, I think those byes
are significant. And you know, maybe it'll take a couple
of years where the teams that earn buys go deep
and make it to the championship game, you know, a
couple of them, and then I think you'll see a
lot more focus on that. But right now, I don't

(17:54):
think it's right there. I think it's significant. I just
think we're overlooking it.

Speaker 5 (17:59):
Addiction, right here, a bye team goes to the championship
this year, I'll.

Speaker 4 (18:02):
There's got to be at least it might be.

Speaker 5 (18:06):
Minus a thousand odds on that one.

Speaker 7 (18:09):
And Georgia Bama in the mix.

Speaker 4 (18:11):
Come on here, so much going, I would imagine. So
all right, We've got Rich Horonberger, Penn State All American
live in Hawaii for the Aztecs game today. Very nice.
We got Jared Smith FSR betting analyst live from Summerlin, right, yeah, yeah,
FSR Betting analyst. I'm Brian though, live from Summerland.

Speaker 7 (18:31):
Also, let's go.

Speaker 4 (18:32):
Although you know, I don't I don't even know where
Jared lives, you know, I'm not sure somewhere around here. Hey,
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(18:55):
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All Right, We've got Oregon at Iowa today and man,
there are a lot of people on the Hawkeyes. Huh

(20:37):
even money this morning. It's down to a six point
Oregon road favorite. Here was six and a half last night.
The hook is gone. No, you can't find the hook.
The hook is nowhere to be found. That point five
is gone as of now. So, man, the Hawkeyes getting
some love here. The weather, you know, you would imagine

(20:57):
in the Hawkeyes favor We're looking at ninety chance of rain,
maybe the temperature drops, maybe the little snow flurries here today, right,
So I think that might be in the minds of
a lot of people. You think about Oregon against Wisconsin.
Remember it was a monsoon in just an ugly game,
and maybe that's stuck with some people there. This is

(21:17):
more like Iowa weather, at least you associate it with them.
It rains quite a bit in the state of Oregon
as well, but Oregon didn't fare as well in the
weather in the elements against Wisconsin. So maybe that twenty
one to seven win is definitely in the forefront of
a lot of better's minds here this morning. What do
you guys think about this matchup?

Speaker 1 (21:37):
Yeah, I mean I understand it. I definitely understand the
fact that people are on the Hawkeyes.

Speaker 2 (21:43):
But maybe not to the level I would.

Speaker 1 (21:46):
I would feel a lot more comfortable to be on
Iowa if Oregon was favored by more than seven. You know,
it's just one of those dangerous spots to be in.
But going back to how I think this game is
gonna bear out, Look, do I think Oregon's a better
team than then what they showed against Wisconsin will certainly.

(22:09):
I think that was a sluggish game. I think the
bye week was just what the doctor ordered, And I
think facing Iowa after a bye is probably a good
thing because you're in for a slog every time you
play against this team, and specifically against an Iowa team
that I think does some really good things. You know, defensively,

(22:30):
they sit in a lot of cover two, which Oregans
quarterback UCLA transfer Dante Moore really struggles with when he's
throwing the football today, I expect a lot of those
players actually to start closer to the line of scrimmage
or behind the line of scrimmage in their bubble screen
game or you know, their RPO game, because I think

(22:50):
what they're going to try to do against Iowa is
really open up the run game, throw when they have to,
and force Iowa to tackle their athletes and offensively against
Iowa's defense, I think Oregon has better athletes and Iowa
isn't a great tackling.

Speaker 2 (23:08):
Team this year, which sounds weird because.

Speaker 1 (23:10):
Kirk Farrens normally has a lot of the little things,
you know that those loose ends tied up pretty nicely.
But the Hawkkeys really struggle bringing down ball carriers this year.
So I think expect to see Oregon just sort of
fighting the death by a thousand paper cuts thing where.

Speaker 2 (23:31):
They're gonna, you know, they're gonna have a two.

Speaker 1 (23:33):
Yard game, then a four yard game, then a two
yard game, and then they're gonna try to have an
explosive run or short pass play where they break one
tackle and either their tight end or their receiver or
their running back gets loose for about fifteen to twenty
yards and they get a nice chunk out of their
offense against the Iowa defense.

Speaker 5 (23:50):
Yeah, it was surprising to see Iowa outside the top
fifty in the Pro Football focused tackling grades. That's again
the PFF stuff and the miss tackles. I think could
be a lot little bit subjective sometimes, but in theory,
I like this Iowa scheme.

Speaker 7 (24:06):
I think Parker is a good coach. The DC. I
think they're good in run fits.

Speaker 5 (24:10):
They're just yeah, maybe they're just not as buttoned up,
not as physical at the line of scrimmages they've been
in prior years. Here's why the lines moved this morning, guys.
There is some rumors, some rumblings that the Korean Moore
is gonna miss this game. The Star wide receiver for Oregon.
We don't know exactly when he popped up with this injury,
but it looks like a knee injury.

Speaker 7 (24:32):
Doesn't appear serious. Again, these are rumors from.

Speaker 5 (24:34):
The Oregon message boards. We'll get the official injury report
coming at ten thirty Eastern right two hours for the
gamer and it's maybe ninety minutes for the game. So
game starts twelve thirty, so we'll get it or twelve
thirty Pacific, excuse me, So we'll get that injury report
between ten and eleven Pacific time. Am I was on

(24:55):
Iowa before that, Obviously I like Iowa more now. I
think what Rich mentioned is really impactful here. The zone
defense that Indiana plays or that Indiana plays that also,
Iowa plays That was hands down, Dante.

Speaker 7 (25:10):
Moore's worst game of the year wasn't even close.

Speaker 5 (25:13):
His ability to see the field and fine windows was
impacted in that game, and that was at home. Now
he's on the road in bad weather, so I think
that's a factor. The Oregon run game is a factor too.
I really like this Oregon run game, Like that's that's
the recipe for Oregon here right, You're gonna be without
likely to Corean Moore, but you have three elite backs
and a really good offensive line, so you're gonna have

(25:36):
to lean on those guys.

Speaker 7 (25:37):
Whittington you've probably heard that name.

Speaker 5 (25:39):
He's the senior, averaging almost nine yards per Carrie Davison,
a freshman, a bruiser six foot two forty, leads the
team of ten tackles. I mean he is with ten touchdowns.
He is a monster on the goal line. And they've
got this speedy freshman who's thick to d a Hill
junior almost ten yards per carry. So they've got three
guys who could beach in different ways. The question is

(25:59):
the inies for Oregon. How much will that be a factor?
And now we have to deal with the weather. So
there's some obstacles today for the Ducks, and they've only won.
They've only beatn one winning team all year, and that
was Northwestern, who did not look good last night against USC.
So you could poke some holes in the Ducks resume,
no doubt.

Speaker 4 (26:15):
Yeah you can. I think you can poll KOLs both ways.
You know, I would look at Oregon's defense has been
pretty good throughout the year. Right, they are only two
games where they allowed more than fourteen points to their opponent.
One was, you know, strikingly against Penn State. But that
was an overtime game, right, double overtime?

Speaker 7 (26:34):
Was it not leave?

Speaker 4 (26:35):
So yeah, double ot it got nutty at the end there.
Penn State scored twenty four points and IU IU scored thirty.
And IU has an explosive offense. Everybody else, you know,
fourteen points or less. And so that's the one thing
I think of with Iowa. Hey, listen, plus six might
be the right side if you got even better, could
be even better, could be even the right side if

(26:57):
you will right. But I just I played this game
with How'm I gonna feel if I'm holding a plus
six ticket or a plus six pick, you know, and
like rapid fire on this show. And let's just say
Oregon scores a touchdown. Let's say Oregon scores a couple
of touchdowns, and now you're like, oh gosh, I need
the Hawkeyes to score, and I want to make it
sound like their offense is broken because they can run

(27:18):
the ball. But Mark Gronowski has one touchdown pass in
Big ten play. That's it. He's got one. Okay. So
you know these games, you think they're gonna play out
a certain way, and all of a sudden, there's a
different scenario that's thrown at you, and all of a sudden, Hey,
the Ducks are scoring points here early on, and you
might need the Hawkeyes to match points to a certain degree.

(27:39):
So if it's all on the Hawkeyes defense, and that's
the handicap, I'm just saying it could go sideways. That's
all I'm saying. I'm not saying go Ducks's clearly the
right side. I'm just saying it might be some uncomfortable moments.
I call it, you know, like double deodorant spots. You
gotta apply a couple of you know, a couple of
go rounds of deodoran you're gonna be sweat this one out.

(28:00):
You could be if you're plus six with the Hawkeyes here.

Speaker 1 (28:03):
Yeah, yeah, you absolutely could be. You really could be.
This is one of those in terms of the spread,
one of those stay away games. I actually think there's
a possibility that both teams go over their total in
this game. Because you just heard Jared talk about the
running game for Oregon. Well, the running game for I
was really good too, and I think that Oregon may

(28:24):
struggle against some of what I would does on the ground. Now,
they're they're pretty good against two tight end sets, like
when you break down some of the advanced analytics, but
you know, look out of twelve personnel, which means you know,
one back, two tight.

Speaker 2 (28:41):
The teams can run a ton of stuff.

Speaker 1 (28:43):
So that's not necessarily indicative of them being able to
shut down or have no success against a team that
runs two tight end sets, but it is a factor.
Here's the here, I'm going to tell you what I
was gonna do, because they do the same thing every week. Offensively,
They're gonna go out there and they're mostly gonna be
in two tight ends. They're gonna run a ton of

(29:05):
offensive or excuse me, outside zone with this offensive line
stretching the field left and right and the running backs
being patient looking for a seam to go north and south.
That's the way they run their offense. And then off
of that, they're gonna have a passing game. Now that
passing game, they're not going to throw a deep downfield
unless they get behind the sticks because Gronowski they can't

(29:27):
trust him to do that. He is one of the
worst on target throwers in FBS football right now, one
of the worst, so they don't rely on him to
throw the football.

Speaker 2 (29:36):
He's a good game manager.

Speaker 1 (29:37):
I was got a pretty decent run game, so they're
gonna rely on that. It's how the game's gonna go.
It's gonna be a slow game. But because you have
such a low total and you have two defenses who
can be had against the particular stylings of either side,
I think there's an opportunity here to look at the
total and maybe take the over on the whole game.

(30:00):
Or I'd be more comfortable taking the Oregon team total
and taking the over than I would Iowa.

Speaker 2 (30:05):
But you could you could take a closer look at Iowan.

Speaker 1 (30:08):
If you fall in love with the number, because trust me,
it's low, you could you could bet the over there too.
I think it's safer though, in in you know, getting
back to the original point than betting the spread in
this game, because I would that that I if that again,
if they're getting more than seven, i'd be I would
be way more than comfortable taking the spread. But six

(30:30):
six and a half, it's kind of stay.

Speaker 2 (30:32):
Away for me.

Speaker 5 (30:33):
Yeah, I'll tell you where this line's gonna move, because
here's what's gonna happen. The injury report's gonna comment around
ten thirty ish Pacific, and people are gonna be like,
oh my god to Coreyan Moore's out, and everyone's gonna
bet Iowa and the line will drop a point or so,
maybe the total will drop a half a point a point. Again,
we've already seen a little bit of movement a half

(30:53):
a point, but a lot of shops are still at
six and a half. So I think you'll see a
wave of Iowa money come in once that injury news
hits the wire. And there's rumors that a couple other
offensive guys could be out too for Oregon, like this
could be a really thin offensive lineup for the Ducks.
When that happens, the line will go down and the

(31:14):
total will go down. So play it out in your head.
If you like Oregon, wait, wait until the injury report hits.
If you like Iowa, bet it now. If you like
the over, wait because the line toad is probably gonna drop,
You're gonna get a better number in a couple hours.
If you like the under, bet it now. I have
no idea what's gonna play out on the field.

Speaker 7 (31:32):
I do know this.

Speaker 5 (31:34):
Once the game start, so that's you know who knows.
But right now I feel very comfortable that if you
like Iowa, you should bet it pretty soon.

Speaker 7 (31:41):
If you like Oregon, probably should wait.

Speaker 5 (31:44):
The Iowa offensive line, guys, I feel like I say
this every year. I honestly think i Was got the
better old line in this game. I really do. They've
got so other than Indiana, They've got the best run
blocking grade on Pro Football Focuses website. I think they're
gonna be in the running for the Joe More Award
this year best offensive line in the country. Now, Oregon,
I think they're better of a running team in terms

(32:06):
of their backfield. But don't sleep on Kamari Moulton and
Xavier Williams. These are two very accomplished backs, and Gronowski
is a significantly better runner than Dante Moore more is
more of an elusive passer. He reminds me a lot
more of a guy who wants to stay in the
pocket as long as possible to throw the ball down
the field. But he can also beat you with his legs.

(32:27):
But this is going to be a game where both
teams turn out a ton of yards on the ground.

Speaker 7 (32:30):
If you guys believe in weird fluky things.

Speaker 5 (32:34):
I don't know what it is about Oregon and facing
teams with a vowel in their first name. But last
year their only loss was to Ohio State. Oh this
year they've lost to Indiana, and now they're about to
play Iowa.

Speaker 4 (32:45):
So there's something.

Speaker 5 (32:46):
About vowel teams that they just fired him. They just
trip up this Orgon team, right. And then two years
ago in twenty twenty three, they lost two games, both
of them to Washington w So again you want to
talk about weird symmetry with when Oregon loses, it does
seem to be this kind of universal language.

Speaker 7 (33:06):
Indiana gave him problems. I think I was gonna give
him some problems today.

Speaker 4 (33:10):
Something about the letter I. I don't know Brian Notre
Dame if that's the playoff match, but that's very good.

Speaker 7 (33:16):
Right, No, no, no, not good.

Speaker 5 (33:18):
But if they place Indiana, or if they figure out
a way to play Ohio State, then that's a problem.

Speaker 4 (33:23):
Wow, that's funny. I just think this, I'll say real fast,
is it's amazing. I can't remember if it was you
Rich or you Jared that was talking about we might
see both teams gain a lot of yards on the ground,
and that might be exactly right. The thing that blows
my mind is, I mean, look at the difference in
quarterback play. Dante Moore is a legitimate threat in the

(33:43):
passing game. Mark Ronowski is not. His passing yards prop
is one thirty two and a half. Yikes, one thirty
two and a half, you know what I mean. So
it blows my mind that to your point, Jared, Iowa's
offensive line is that good where they can and still
run the ball consistently when they don't have a legitimate

(34:04):
threat in the passing game. And that's where I look
at a team like Oregon where they've got a quality defense,
and to me, it's like, just sell out against the rush.
Make Mark Gronowski beat you through the air. If he does,
you tip your cap. If you're just loading the box
and you're like, you're just not gonna run on us,
You're just not gonna run it down our throat all

(34:24):
day long. Not happening. It's like, all right, well, I
guess we got to air it out with Gronowski over here.
It's like advantage ducks, you know it. Just it still
blows my mind that a team like Iowa, against a
quality opponent, they can still run the ball when they
don't have a legitimate passing game. This isn't like I
don't know a Service academy and they don't throw at all.
Not everyone, I'm just saying in general. Right, let's just

(34:47):
say a certain service academy doesn't throw it at all,
but they're committed to the run. It's this weird system
and it just works. No matter what. You don't have
to have a passing game, it still works. It's like,
that's not what Iowa is, you know so, and they
still run the ball. It's crazy to me. So we'll
see if Oregon can shut down the run game over man.
So it's just sell out against that. Gronowski's got one

(35:10):
touchdown passing Big ten play you know, make him earn it,
make him beat you through the air. So in any event,
we've got rich O. He's over there in Hawaii, Penn State,
all American, enjoying the waves, just brushing up along the shore.
Right there, beautiful ambiance. We've got Jared Smith, FSR, betting analyst.
I'm prian.

Speaker 10 (35:30):
No.

Speaker 4 (35:31):
Every time you make a wager at BETMGM, you earn
BETMGM rewards points that can be redeemed for things like
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be used towards dining shows and hotel rooms at over
twenty MGM resorts. And be sure to follow BETMGM across
all socials at BETMGM. All right, coming up next to
parlay platter, which have one selection for you. We pull

(35:54):
it together for a greater payout. I got my eye
on the sec over here. We'll see what the fellas
are thinking. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff,
presented by BETMGM. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff,
presented by Bett MGM. No time to waste. Let's get
into the platter.

Speaker 2 (36:12):
Shall we check this out?

Speaker 3 (36:15):
Barlay flatterer, that is.

Speaker 4 (36:18):
Right parlay flatterer. We each have one selection for you.
We pull it together for a greater payout. Will be
an even greater payout if Jared goes with money line underdogs. Huh,
let's go. Let's get into it, Jared, what.

Speaker 2 (36:29):
Do you like?

Speaker 7 (36:29):
Yeah, we're getting this to GC today.

Speaker 5 (36:31):
So first of all, I think this money line underdog
will be a little bit lighter if you wait until
game time. Again, we just talked about this in the
Iowa Oregon preview. It appears as though there's some injuries
looming on the offensive side of the ball for the Ducks.
We've already seen a half point tick down on the
number this morning. I got in at six and a half.

Speaker 7 (36:48):
Last night.

Speaker 5 (36:48):
I actually gave this out as the BETMGM video that
I do for college football every week on Wednesday. So
I've been on the Hawkeyes all week. But now we're
starting to see some of those injury reports trickle into
the market. So I think if you bet this now,
you're gonna come out on the right side of the
ledger once we start. Once the game starts, who freaking knows,
But I do think Iowa's offensive line is gonna run
the ball effectively against this Oregon defense.

Speaker 7 (37:08):
That is the name of the game for Oregon.

Speaker 5 (37:10):
Offensively, they need a little bit more in the passing game,
but their running game.

Speaker 7 (37:13):
Is pretty solitude. This is gonna be a physical game.

Speaker 5 (37:16):
There will be weather in Iowa City, and I think
hopefully Mark Kronowski makes just enough plays to get the
Hawkeys across the finish line.

Speaker 7 (37:24):
So give me Iowa two to one on the money line,
the first leg of the platter.

Speaker 2 (37:32):
Sorry, these works better when they're on. Okay, here we go.
I'm gonna repeat everything I just said.

Speaker 1 (37:37):
Do you seem literally a little money line pick after
we're talking about Iowa from Jared there.

Speaker 2 (37:43):
I like Iowa much better.

Speaker 1 (37:44):
Than I like Oregon, and now I like them even
better because they're.

Speaker 2 (37:47):
A part of our part life. All right, Here we go.

Speaker 1 (37:50):
Georgia terrible defensive line in terms of pass rush.

Speaker 2 (37:54):
This is really odd.

Speaker 1 (37:55):
To say because we're used to saying so many complimentary
things about a Georgia defense. Against a Mississippi State team
who needs a win, like Blood, they are waiting to
clinch bull eligibility. They've had an up and down season,
a little top sea turvy, but they've been competitive all
the way through. If you look at all their games

(38:16):
into the third and fourth quarter, even games where they
lost by a wider disparity, they've all been close. That's
why I like the plus nine and a half points here.
I'm riding with Mississippi State a couple of reasons that
I like them against this Georgia defense. That pass rush,
however already mentioned the emotional factor I already mentioned.

Speaker 2 (38:37):
I also think this outfitsive.

Speaker 1 (38:38):
Line, who hasn't performed very well, has kept them in games.

Speaker 2 (38:41):
Anyways.

Speaker 1 (38:42):
They get the pressure valve released against a sack rate
that is third worst in the country behind the Air
Force and Georgia Southern.

Speaker 2 (38:52):
Against this Georgia Bulldogs team.

Speaker 1 (38:53):
So give me Mississippi State get nine and a half today.

Speaker 4 (38:58):
Okay more cow bell? Huh very nice? All right, yeah good.
I'll stick with the sec here. Rich, I'll go with
this Florida Kentucky under give me under forty four and
a half today. Listen, I don't want this to be reactionary.
Last week, you know, Kentucky played at ten to three game, Like,
what is this the nineteen fifties? What are we doing

(39:19):
over here at ten to three?

Speaker 2 (39:21):
Okay?

Speaker 4 (39:21):
Like Kentucky plays great defense. Florida's defense is very good too.
Offenses leave a lot to be desired. I mean, forty
four and a half. It sounds like ridiculously low compared
to you know, some of the totals that you get
in college football. It is in college football, but let
me remind you this is a common total in say

(39:42):
the NFL, right, pretty common around forty four and a
half roughly, And you'll see games go under routinely in
the NFL. So I just think in this spot, good defenses,
offenses that struggle. I just don't see a points fest
here today. So I'll take a slobber knocker and gate
versus UK under forty four and a half.

Speaker 5 (40:03):
Yeah, forty four and a half is a big So
forty four is a pretty big total in the NFL.

Speaker 7 (40:08):
I don't think it's as prevalent in college. I need
to check my college ratings, but in the NFL.

Speaker 5 (40:13):
Forty four and forty five are pretty big. Twelve to
one actually plus twelve forty one specifically at bet MGM
after one of those nifty boost tokens that we hear
Brian talked about so eloquently during the commercial breaks. Nine
to one actually almost ten to one plus nine ninety
three without the boost token, I think is honestly, guys,
three legger getting over twelve to one.

Speaker 7 (40:34):
That feels like a nice little payout here, I got,
I got a nice little fifty burger on this one today.

Speaker 4 (40:38):
I think the boost huss So we're without the boosts
around ten to one, around ten to one, Yeah, let's
go beas like you know, almost twelve and a half
to one.

Speaker 7 (40:45):
Yeah, that's nice. No, it is for a three legger,
it is.

Speaker 4 (40:48):
Yeah, give you like a basically like a plus two
to fifty boost.

Speaker 2 (40:52):
That's pretty nice.

Speaker 5 (40:53):
Yep, yeah, the twenty five listen, I think the way
that the boosts work at at MGM, you should always
be using them when you have the New York count
guys him go to.

Speaker 4 (41:00):
Waste, all right, Three seems to be an unlucky number
for this team today. You shall explain, Oh what is
going on? Welcome in happy Saturday to you as we
get you set for a full day of ball. That
is right, our guy rich O, he's out there in Hawaii.
It's got a ukulele for us, a solo in a

(41:22):
third hour, you know, they break it down. He's gonna
play killing fields on a ukulele from Slayer over there.
It's gonna be amazing. Yeah. So I you guys correct
me if you think this is off, but I think
three is an unlucky number for one team in particular today.
That would be the Missouri Tigers. Okay, So they're facing

(41:44):
the number three team in the country, that would be
Texas A and M. Missouri will be starting its number
three quarterback, true freshman Matt Zalars. He'll get the start,
you know, a couple of injury issues ahead of him,
So he's gonna start against a very aggressive Texas A
and M defense. Okay, and then this one is a
little bit of a stretch, but it's significant. Missouri is

(42:06):
gonna be without their star tight end, Brett Norfleet, and
he is third on the team with twenty six catches.
He actually leads both Missouri and SEC tight ends with
five touchdown catches. He's not gonna see the field today
due to Injuri. He's got a shoulder injury. So that's
a lot of three is going against you. Your third

(42:26):
leading receiver is out, your third string quarterback is in
true freshman, and you're facing the number three team. I mean,
that's that's not great for Missouri home dogs, your plus
seven at home. But if I'm again, this is a
lot like the Oregon handicap Oregon, make Mark Gronowski beat you.

(42:47):
Just make him beat you. Texas A and M. Make
this third string quarterback Matt Zalars beat you. And he's
got some ability. You know, he was in the top
one hundred in terms of you know, prospect rankings. So
I don't want to make it sound like he can't
play at all. But he's a true freshman going up
against an aggressive defense, top three team. Make him earn it.

(43:07):
I know, Matt Hardy and Jamal Roberts. It's a very
good one to two combo in terms of running backs.
Easier said than done. To you just limit their success,
but stack the box. Make this true freshman beat you.
And I think that's exactly what A and M is
going to do. That's going to be their formula today.

Speaker 1 (43:24):
Yeah, yeah, I think A and M is the much
better team. Obviously, Mike Elco has designs of winning a
national championship. A couple of holes. We'll get to the
defensive side of the ball. But you know, just to
talk about this offense and lauded for its obvious success
is offensive coordinator Colin Klein.

Speaker 2 (43:46):
He can take a bow.

Speaker 1 (43:47):
Marcel Reid in his junior season now has really accelerated
his growth this season. He's worked well with his leading
targets Concepcion and Craver. Yeah, this offense has been rock solid.
And Texas A and M, they really are buoyed by
it because they.

Speaker 2 (44:07):
Have a couple of issues defensively.

Speaker 1 (44:11):
They they again, you know, the same way we were
talking about how Iowa is an oddly poor tackling team.
So is this Texas A and M team. For as
high they are in the rankings, they don't tackle well
at all, Like broken tackles against their tackling rate in general,
if you can make one miss, you can get big
old chunk plays against A and M, and many team

(44:34):
teams have now Missouri, they have their obvious problems since
entering SEC play the Ahmad Hardy how he was dazzling
us early in the season, he's really cooled off. The
touchdown rate has slowed down immensely. His his broken tackle rate,
forcing broken tackles against defenders has slowed down immensely. And

(44:56):
then obviously, losing your starting quarterback and starting a freshman
is going to hurt them too. Defensively, they create havoc
and that's where they have a little bit of a
feather in their cap. So we'll see if they can
slow down this Texas A and M offense. But as
sort of an overview of this game, A and M
is the much better team today. And that's that's it.

(45:16):
I mean, by by a lot, they're they're a better team.

Speaker 5 (45:20):
Yeah, they've They've done a really good job of kind
of silencing a lot of critics. You know, anytime an
upstart team in the SEC is undefeated, everyone's going to
try to poke holes. Especially when that team is not
Alabama Georgia, Everyone's going to try to poke holes in
A and M. This year, Marcel Reid's taken another step.
I like what Conklin's done for him. I think that

(45:41):
duo makes a lot of synergy magic together. Kanklin, of course,
former kansastate quarterback now in the coaching world, becoming a
really good offensive coordinator, doing a really good job right
Mike Elkomore a defensive guy, he's got his offensive guru,
and Reid's you know, Rich mentioned the receiving group I'll
give some love to read. The one thing about Marcel

(46:02):
that I think they need to do is run the
ball effectively, because his play action grade goes up considerably.
He's a much better passer with play action most quarterbacks are,
especially at the collegiate level. You're able to manipulate the
defense a little bit more and really zone in on
one specific matchup that you like. In this particular case,
it's gonna be tough because I think Missoo's defense is

(46:22):
gonna be up for the challenge. Right We've talked about
Missouri multiple times in the past, especially the game against Bama.
I thought that was their best game where they showed
you how difficult they are to block off the edge.
Zion Young Damon Wilson, those are the two guys to
keep an eye on off the edge for Missouri. They
are absolute beasts. And then you've got the big man
in the middle McClellan, who can stop the run the
Florida transfer. So this isn't gonna be just a and

(46:44):
m line it up and smash it right now in
Missouri's throat like they're gonna be up for this challenge.
On the other side, Zala's upside is there. But as
Brian alluded to, this is the third string quarterback coming
into the year from Missouri. It is not an ideal
situation when you are facing the best of the best
right now in the sec We'll see how that plays out.

Speaker 7 (47:03):
I'll throw a third right, we're all about the rule of.

Speaker 5 (47:05):
Three here, all the sho nice, Yeah, I'll throw a
third wrinkle into this game. We talk about Missouri's defense,
we talk about A and M's offense. Here's the third wrinkle.
It's the distraction wrinkle. And I'll say this on the show.
I'm not one hundred percent confident that this is going
to happen. I'm about seventy percent confident. But it's significantly
higher than what some of the prediction markets are saying

(47:27):
right now. I got a whisper this week that Eli
Drinkowitz is going to be the next head coach of
Penn State. Is that one hundred percent confirmed? Of course not,
it's a whisper. Now, how often are these whispers true? Again,
I would say about sixty seventy percent of the time.
Mike Elco's also up for a lot of these jobs.

(47:48):
How are these if you think these coaches are not
interviewing over the net last week or two.

Speaker 7 (47:53):
You're crazy.

Speaker 5 (47:54):
These jobs are going to be filled before the College
Wall playoffs starts because of the transfer window and all
of the restrictions with recruiting. These are very difficult interviews.
They're long, they're tiresome, they're deep. How are the teams
going to handle that? And if I'm catching word that
Eli drink Witz and I'm not an insider, I'm not
an Adam schefter. If I'm catching word that Eli drink

(48:15):
Witz is going to be the next head coach of
Penn State, I'm sure a lot of other people within
the Missouri ranks are also hearing the same things, and
also within the Texas A and M ranks about Elko.
So that is another wrinkle to some of these high
leverage games over the next few weeks. A lot of
these coach think about how many openings right now are
in college football LSU, Penn State, Florida, Auburn, Like it's

(48:36):
it's crazy, and these jobs are going to get filled
by current head coaches or high profile coordinators at these
big schools. So this is going to be a really
interesting dynamic to watch over the next few weeks.

Speaker 4 (48:47):
I'm just laughing a little bit because when you mentioned that,
like Eli Drinkwitz might be the next Penn State head coach,
Rich was just like, Oh wow, what.

Speaker 2 (48:56):
Do you think about that? Rich?

Speaker 7 (48:56):
Right the first time I mentioned that to you, it
didn't sound.

Speaker 4 (48:59):
Like, oh wow, yeah really, oh really you know it's
not appropriate, right, like, oh Eli, huh Yeah.

Speaker 1 (49:07):
It's It's amazing how Penn stayed over the years. You know,
I want to say that this is true for all
college football programs, almost all, outside of maybe like the
craziest college football coach recruitment we've ever seen, when like
Lincoln Riley was leaving Oklahoma to USC. A lot of

(49:28):
these hirings aren't all that sexy.

Speaker 2 (49:31):
You know.

Speaker 1 (49:31):
It's usually a coordinator getting a shot. It's a head
coaching re tread that we sort of see coming down
the pike.

Speaker 2 (49:38):
You know.

Speaker 1 (49:39):
This this is a situation where it's a guy who's
done some really special things out a program that has
long struggled, and he's bringing them, you know, somewhere near
the top of his conference. And it's a very difficult conference.
And Missouri has played unbelievably competitive football this year, albeit
it slowed down some when they got to their s schedule.

(50:01):
Drinkowitz has he's he's got a good.

Speaker 2 (50:04):
Resume to back up the hiring.

Speaker 1 (50:07):
However, I mean, I'm I'm am I blown away by it.

Speaker 2 (50:10):
No, you know, I mean.

Speaker 1 (50:12):
If all of a sudden, if all of a sudden
instead of the rule of three, John was like, hey,
as a complete non sequitor, I'm here in Gruden has
major interest in Penn State. I'd be like, what you know, now,
does that mean that Eli drag Woitz is gonna be
a worst coach than John Gruden or John Gruden would
be the right selection for Penn State. No, but name recognition, excitement, interest,

(50:36):
you know, a furrowed brow, maybe even like all that
stuff comes to mind when you think about hiring, like
Chucky coming to uh Penn State. But but but this
feels like, if it does end up happening, it's a
well earned opportunity for a very talented head coach who's
done some amazing things with the Tigers over the past,

(50:59):
especially the past season.

Speaker 2 (51:00):
I've been specifically impressed without they've competed. You know.

Speaker 4 (51:03):
It's it's something funny that you mentioned rich about Texas
A and m not tackling very well. Yeah, and It
just got me thinking how I complain while watching a
football game, you know what I mean, Like depending on
what side I'm on, what like prop bet, what what
team total whatever? Like what side I have? Right, Like,

(51:24):
let's just say I'm on Texas A and M today
for the sake of argument. I could see myself watching
today's game just going tackle right like over and no
tackle somebody, my gosh, tackle, just tackle a guy, you know,
because Madd Hardy even though his numbers have declined, and
Jamal Roberts especially Hardy though, Man, that guy yards after contact.

(51:47):
He specializes in that area. So that's one thing.

Speaker 2 (51:50):
Man.

Speaker 4 (51:50):
Offensively, it's catch the ball, I'll say it, just like
catch the ball, man. But man, when a team cannot
get dudes on on the ground, they just can't tackle.
Oh that's a rough watch, man. That is a rough watch.

Speaker 1 (52:05):
And it really is one of those things that fundamentally
you can work on throughout this season. A lot of
coaches don't want to again, you want to talk about
doing something that's sexy at practice, you know, like like
where you're going over you know some of your more
you know, deep cuts in your playbook, like hey, we're
gonna we're gonna work on that Philly special because it

(52:27):
may come up in the low red zone this week.
It's like, ah, yeah, we're fired up about running that
new Blitz scheme.

Speaker 2 (52:34):
That is A it's only up for A and M.

Speaker 1 (52:37):
You know, here's the deal. At the end of the day,
football is a pretty simple game. It's throw, catch, block, tackle,
And I mean, if you want to throw and kick,
because it's so crucial in certain moments, throw and kick.
But if you do those four things well especially, you're
gonna be a pretty damn good football team. And it's
amazing how many even good football teams with good recruits

(53:00):
really don't concentrate on the fundamentals. Especially toward the end
of the season. You'll see poorer tackling as the weather
gets cold, and a lot of people attributed to the
fact that, hey, yeah, like the weather's cold, it's harder
to tackle.

Speaker 2 (53:14):
Bulowny.

Speaker 1 (53:15):
It isn't harder to tackle in hot weather. Cold weather
because in hot weather guys sweat more. It's harder to
get a hold of them. Sometimes you know, they're slippery,
they get away from you.

Speaker 2 (53:25):
Cold weather.

Speaker 1 (53:26):
I'm telling you, the weather doesn't matter. It's teams that
work on their feet and their fundamentals at practice, and
the further you get through the season, the lesson you
think you need to work on it with certain coaching staffs.
And honestly, that's when you gotta lock in even more.
You gotta spend the five minutes at practice run through
it with your defensive line, your linebackers, and your defensive backs,
and you will have a pretty damn good defense if

(53:48):
they can get ball carriers on the ground.

Speaker 5 (53:51):
Yeah, the hardy also bringing hardy to the grounds not easy.
So he leads all pop power for backs this year
seven hundred and twenty two yards after first contact.

Speaker 7 (53:59):
I mean again, I'll give.

Speaker 5 (54:01):
You a lot of running backs will take that period
seven hundred and twenty two yards for the season.

Speaker 7 (54:06):
They'll be hey, that's a great year.

Speaker 5 (54:07):
That's after first contact and we still got a lot
of time left in the season.

Speaker 7 (54:12):
Now he has trailed off a little bit.

Speaker 5 (54:14):
He has not eclipsed one hundred yards over his last
three games, so he's starting to slow down. The one
thing about A and M is they give up a
lot of running yards. So we you know, this is
something that I think we will definitely be keeping an
eye out in this game. We'll see if Mike Elcho
throws some heavy boxes, I would The issue is they
haven't really been behind.

Speaker 7 (54:35):
In a lot of games this year.

Speaker 5 (54:36):
Right, A and M has been on the front foot,
so teams have been throwing it on A and M
a lot, so it hasn't been as big of a factor.
The fact that they haven't been as good against the run.
Toy and York I've mentioned his name on the show before.
Middle linebacker for A and M. Not a big, physical,
athletic guy, just one of the best, most instinctual linebackers
I've ever watched play college football.

Speaker 7 (54:56):
He just sniffs out where the run, where the run
hole is. He is so good at that.

Speaker 5 (55:02):
I don't know if he's gonna play on Sunday because
of his size, but he definitely has the brain to
play on Sunday, no doubt about it. You cannot let
this run game beat you. If Mike got say, you
gotta figure out a way to get zllars into obvious
passing downs. But the one thing about A and M
this year, how about this twenty on third downs that's

(55:22):
the best in the country, like by far, Like it's
like not even close. So they have been really good
on third downs this year. Now, that can be a
little bit of a fluky stat but I think this
is a really good A and M defense that struggles
in one area that Missouri does well. So this is
gonna be a fun matchup. Honestly, I would not be
surprised if Missouri keeps this game close because A and
M on the road has been a bit of a
struggle this year.

Speaker 7 (55:42):
Go watch the Arkansas game.

Speaker 4 (55:44):
Well, yeah, that's why I think it comes down to.
It comes down to A and m's rush defense against
Missouri's rushing offense. And I think it comes down to
Missouri staying on schedule. Right, if it's third and four,
it's third and three, Okay, you know we got something
worse here. If it's consistently third and eight, third and ten,
and it's like Zalar's just do your thing, buddy, you

(56:05):
know that's not a good spot for Miszoo to be in.
So I think it's missoo's running game. How effective is it?
And can they stay on schedule and take a lot
off of the plate of Zalars? Right, if there's more
on his plate, that's that's Texas A and M advantage
all day. Yeah, hey, and we've got go ahead.

Speaker 1 (56:23):
I was just gonna say one last thing, Missouri's defense
putting a stop to some of those explosives from Texas,
A and M is going to be huge.

Speaker 2 (56:31):
Well.

Speaker 1 (56:31):
I think that this matchup for Reid it bodes well
because if you look at what Missouri likes to run,
cover three, what Marcel Reid throws well against. Over the
course of the season, he's been eating up cover three defenses,
but Missouri's been great at contested catches and forcing tight

(56:52):
window throws. So if Reid, if he's on like if
he's if he's putting them ball right on the money,
this could be a long day for the Missouri defense.
But like you just said, Brian, road game, tough environment,
super competitive team, even though they've lost in the SEC
so far, I think this could be closer than a

(57:13):
lot of people will will give it credit for.

Speaker 2 (57:15):
Right out the front, Yeah, I like it.

Speaker 4 (57:17):
Maybe a little rapid fire selection, right. It's a great point, though,
I just you know, I want to highlight what you
just said right there, Rich where think about it as
an offense. If Missouri gets the ball and they have
this methodical, you know, like eight minute drive, they score points,
so feeling great, you know, but if A and M
has this explosive play, you know, Concepcione catches a sixty

(57:40):
five yard touchdown pass and now all of a sudden,
as the Missouri offense, you're like, we gotta like nickel
and dime our way all the way down the field
or we're trailing late. Right, Like, there are a lot
of times where that methodical, you know, let's get five
yards here, let's get four yards there. Like, it gets
really tough when the other team has explosive play. So
that's a big thing to limit it for that reason

(58:02):
too for your own offense. Right, all right, We've got
Rich Orenberger, Penn State All American, Jared Smith, FSR betting analyst.
I'm Brian No. Register with BETMGM to get instant access
to the best variety of parlay selection features, no sweat
and boost tokens, live betting options, and much more. New

(58:24):
the first bet, place your money line parlay bets and more.
Today again, the bonus code is countdown. Bet MGM make
it legendary.

Speaker 2 (58:33):
All right.

Speaker 4 (58:33):
Speaking of legendary, our guy Seamus McGee, team lead of
Sports Trading at BETMGM. He drops on by let you
know who BETMGM needs, and you know how much Virginia
is gonna lose by today.

Speaker 7 (58:45):
I don't know.

Speaker 4 (58:46):
Maybe he won't bring that to the table. I'm not
sure we'll find out. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
to Kickoff presented by BETMGM. It is Fox Sports Radios
Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM. Throughout the entire
football season, BETMGM will offer all different types of no
sweat tokens and odds boost tokens. Be on the lookout
for no sweat same game parlay tokens, parlay boost tokens,

(59:09):
and so much more. All right, let's do this.

Speaker 3 (59:13):
Follow the money, real good money.

Speaker 4 (59:16):
We welcome in our good friend, Seamus McGee, team lead
of Sports Trading at BEDMGM. Seamus, is this is this
the week? Good morning to you? I should say good
morning before I take you know, unnecessary cheap shots. Is
this the week that your fugazy Virginia Cavaliers or the
the you know, the the house of cards, It just
comes crashing down. Is this what we're looking at?

Speaker 10 (59:39):
Good morning to you too, guys. I don't think so.
Virginia's finally back at home night game. The crowds that
they've been getting the past few weeks at home have
been really good. I don't think this is the week.
You could argue this is a decent look ahead spot
with Duke on deck on the road, but I'd argue

(01:00:01):
Coop's got the bigger look ahead spot with Virginia coming
to their place next week. So I think Virginia gets
it done. I don't know if they cover six and
a half Wakes, and I think they've exceeded expectations. I
would argue not really showing up and win losses, but
like they've played a lot better than they've showed then
they were supposed to be this year at least.

Speaker 5 (01:00:21):
Yeah, it looks like a Sloper knocker kind of game.
I might be on the under in that game. I
think Wakes defense have been pretty good Virginia. Also, as
you mentioned, you don't want to show too much with
a huge game on deck next week. Oregon hasn't shown
us their best yet this year. The game at Penn
State's aging like milk and now they've got some injuries today.
I'm assuming despite that, everyone is still betting the Ducks

(01:00:45):
based off of what we saw earlier in the week.
The question is, Seamus, So we're going to start to
see some Iowa money come in now that this injury
news is starting to filter into the market.

Speaker 10 (01:00:54):
Yeah, we're gonna see which way the line moves. But
I mean this has been pretty even both is all
week as far as ticket counts and money. Anything we
take in slightly more Iowa plus six and a half
money here. I mean, it's gonna be an interesting game.
I liked Iowa before the game, but we'll see what
happens with this line movement.

Speaker 1 (01:01:13):
We got our initial CFP rankings. It was unveiled earlier
this week. Do you have any compliments, criticisms, concerns the
three c's after seeing the CFP?

Speaker 10 (01:01:26):
I mean, there, I don't. I can't get on board
with Texas eleven. I think that's a bit much, But
like we see it every year, these first rankings mean
absolutely nothing. Like four of these teams are probably going
to be out of it. I think the ACC got

(01:01:48):
absolutely screwed this first rankings. But that's just me. I
call me, call me biased all you want. I just
want to know why the Big twelve is suddenly a
juggernaut light years head of the ACC.

Speaker 4 (01:02:03):
All right, Samos, I'm always interested what bet MGM needs
today if you could waive the you know, the magic
BETMGM wand what would benefit the book the most with
the result here are too today.

Speaker 10 (01:02:15):
I'd say the three plays we're gonna end up needing
the most as it stands right now, Penn State plus
fourteen and a half. Wow, Mississippi State plus nine and
a half, and BYU is going to need to cover
ten and a half.

Speaker 7 (01:02:29):
It is.

Speaker 10 (01:02:29):
People are really, you know, starting to suspect things about
this b YU team. Maybe they're a little fo gazy
and they're all over Texas Tech today.

Speaker 5 (01:02:40):
Interesting, the jig is up with BYU. I love this
boch Mar kid though. I think it's going to be
a fascinating matchup. Yeah, he really is the SEC. Like,
You've got some interesting matchups today. I wouldn't call any
of these like headliners. But you've got A and M
on the road against the third string quarterback. You've got
Bama in the LSU, Brian Kelly bounce back, you know,

(01:03:02):
dead fire, dead, coach firing game.

Speaker 7 (01:03:05):
You've got Auburn in a dead coach firing.

Speaker 5 (01:03:07):
Game, Like you have all these coaches that have been
fired and now we're going to see if their team
bounces back from them. Have you seen any unique action
in the SEC for some of these games, It's.

Speaker 10 (01:03:18):
Been pretty straightforward, honestly. This week for the book, it's
just a lot of favorites coming in. I think I
was the only dog I think I've seen. It's been like, huh,
Like that's kind of surprising. We're taking more money here.
But as as far as the fired coach angle here,
it's still looking like people are still fading some of
these teams.

Speaker 1 (01:03:40):
I'm going to give you four team names. Which of
these is the least likely to finish the team the season?
Undefeated Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A, and m BYU are
the only remaining CFP Top twenty five or top twenty
five teams period who are undefeated right now.

Speaker 2 (01:03:58):
Who's most likely to fit with a loss?

Speaker 10 (01:04:01):
B YU I was talking to them before. This team
has been a walk box team all year. I mean
the Iowa State game. If if rock Obec doesn't throw
some of the most boneheaded picks you've ever seen in
the fourth quarter. I mean it's it's not even close
to the way you lose. Is the probably outside of
the top fifteen at the very least, it's got to

(01:04:25):
be them other than that, Like I don't see Ohio
stated in a handle losing A and M probably like
they still got some tough games that I was, you know,
saying Texas eleven surprised me. But by the time they
play an n that's going to be a huge, huge
game in terms of the landscape of the CFTE.

Speaker 7 (01:04:46):
Going to be Georgia.

Speaker 2 (01:04:47):
Seamus, that's going to be.

Speaker 10 (01:04:49):
A playoff game right there. I a little low on Georgia.
I don't think this team is that good. I think
there might be some value on them to miss the
playoffs by the end of the year.

Speaker 7 (01:04:59):
Wo wow.

Speaker 4 (01:05:00):
By the way, little bonus question for you, Seamus, before
your seamous special, I gotta give you props because you
were so right about South Carolina. I remember the jugglar
veins starting to pop out. You're like, they're gonna lose
games left and right, and sure enough, you're right. Sure yeah.
Can you think about where you were right the most

(01:05:20):
this year? It might be South Carolina and where you
were wrong the most with what you thought before the
season began.

Speaker 10 (01:05:27):
South South Carolina certainly comes up BC did on this.
On this, I was dead on about BC. Find me
five wins for this team. And I mean, granted, they
did look better last week against Notre Dame until they
ended up getting blown out. Team I was wrong the
most on I try not to think about it too

(01:05:49):
much of them.

Speaker 5 (01:05:50):
Right right, right?

Speaker 4 (01:05:51):
Yeah, that would assume I have been wrong, right you know, Oh.

Speaker 10 (01:06:00):
You guys are gonna love this Buffalo Bulls. I thought
this team was gonna be the class of the MAC,
all these starters back ten state transfer a QB. I
had him ten plus wins. I had to win the
MAC and they they should have lost to you man,
and then they lose to Achlan like this is. It's
just been a nightmare for the Bulls this year.

Speaker 4 (01:06:22):
Okay, let's do the Seamus Special. And I would like
I'd like to add like an addendum, can I do?
I don't know if that's worded correctly, but if you
go to like, you know, like a soccer play or
you know, like FCS play, that's fine, totally fine, fair
game for the shame of special. Can you add like
the college play that you like the most as well?

(01:06:43):
Can I get a little extra credit here today from you, Seamus?

Speaker 10 (01:06:46):
You know, I see it's been about time I've been
I've been given this new rule change, so I uh yeah, sure,
it's about time.

Speaker 7 (01:06:54):
We told you to keep it in this h zip code.

Speaker 10 (01:07:00):
As far as the sham as Special goes, you guys
are gonna think I'm crazy. But we're going to Poughkeepsie,
New York, and we are once again fading the steps
and hatters. Wow, College minus twelve and a half in Poughkeepsie,
this is steps in off a bye week. It's a
get right game for Maris. They've lost four straight, but
they come back home and I can't see steps and

(01:07:21):
getting up for this one and then college game I
like the most. Give me a Yukon with the point. Yes,
this is a this is a good look ahead spot
with Yukon at home, I think they might get some
I went to get a decent crowd for this game, Duke.
It is a big look. I saw Uva on deck

(01:07:42):
and weird like just a non conference game this late
into the year. Yukon and a lot of momentum going
with that. Team and a pretty solid TV back there.
So I like Yukon a lot today.

Speaker 4 (01:07:53):
Okay, all right, we'll take it. Good stuff Seamus as always,
but hope you enjoyed the day. We'll catch you soon.

Speaker 10 (01:07:58):
Thanks, guys, enjoy the games you doo.

Speaker 2 (01:08:00):
There.

Speaker 4 (01:08:01):
He is Seamus McGee, team lead of sports Trading at
bet MGM. Always does an awesome job. All right, let
me just throw another game at you. How about the Irish?

Speaker 2 (01:08:11):
You know, like, how.

Speaker 4 (01:08:13):
How about Navy at Notre Dame. Notre Dame favored by
four touchdowns, twenty eight point favorites, total is fifty five
and a half. You know, like some people, I get
it right. This is not like a circle this game
like this gotta be on the quad box where I
get it right. But I think it's an interesting matchup
where you know, Navy, their offense has actually been pretty

(01:08:33):
good this season, and if you look at this Notre
Dame defense, a lot of the starters have not faced
this Navy offense. And Chris ash the defensive coordinator, he's
been routinely called out and rightfully so this year. So
are the Irish? Are they gonna be like assignment football
driven today? Are they gonna be on there. You know
what they call it, their p's and q's.

Speaker 3 (01:08:55):
I don't.

Speaker 4 (01:08:55):
I've got my doubts right. So can Navy be a
little bit feisty? Can they you know, at least score
a couple of touchdowns?

Speaker 2 (01:09:02):
Yeah?

Speaker 4 (01:09:02):
Absolutely. I don't think it's gonna be a close game.
I don't think D's gonna have to sweat it out.
But in terms of just like stopping Navy's offense, I
don't see that happening. And there's no stopping Notre Dames
defense today. Navy has no shot. Their defense sucks, They're
gonna get rolled. So yeah, I don't know if it's
gonna be a close one, but I think there's gonna
be some points in this one.

Speaker 2 (01:09:22):
Yeah, I agree.

Speaker 1 (01:09:23):
I'm all over Notre Dame's team total because I don't
think there's anyway the Navy slows down the Irish today.
I mean, if you look at any advanced metric, or
really any metric period Notre Dame against the Navy defense,
I mean, it leans so heavily.

Speaker 2 (01:09:43):
To Notre Dame.

Speaker 1 (01:09:44):
I mean even when they get to third down, they're
converting out such a hot clip that I don't think
Navy's gonna have much success if they get them behind schedule.
It's it's gonna be one of those games where I
just think that the Irish are gonna.

Speaker 2 (01:09:59):
Over WELLM Navy in every way.

Speaker 1 (01:10:03):
Look, service academies always present an interesting challenge, right you
know you always say to yourself, well, anything can happen
when you're playing against option offenses and teams that you
know obviously deploy a variety of different attacks that you're
not necessarily seeing all the time throughout the course of
your your playing schedule. But in this situation, I think

(01:10:26):
the safe bet, if you are going to put anything
on this game, would be that the Irish you're going
to eat. They're gonna get there. So I think it's
at what forty forty and a half? Maybe I like
the Irish going over their team total.

Speaker 5 (01:10:40):
Yeah, I would be willing to it's twenty eight at MGM,
it's twenty seven and a half at some other shops.
I would be willing to lay the twenty seven and
a half with Notre Dame. I don't see Navy covering this.

Speaker 4 (01:10:50):
What about the twenty eight shared? Do you feel comfortable?

Speaker 5 (01:10:52):
I mean, less of an exciting bet, but I still
think Notre Dame.

Speaker 7 (01:10:56):
Could easily win by forty easily.

Speaker 5 (01:10:58):
Yeah, they drop fifty on this defense last year, and
they've upgraded at quarterback end receiver.

Speaker 7 (01:11:03):
And we've talked about CJ. Carr.

Speaker 5 (01:11:05):
I think there is a lot of upside here, guys,
and I don't think he's tapped into that true potential yet.

Speaker 2 (01:11:12):
This is a.

Speaker 5 (01:11:12):
Quarterback that looks to be all boxes checked with everything
he can do physically. He's just a freshman and he
just needs to learn how to play the position a
little bit more. And they've got much better receivers this year.
And Notre Dame's defense, orxuse me, Navy's defense is an
absolute disaster. I will say on the Notre Dame defensive side,
Kingston milliamu Asa six three, two thirty, this is the

(01:11:35):
guy to watch. This is the guy who they line
up all over the field. He's a sophomore's coming off
a huge game against Boston College. Five pressures, two sacks,
six tackles. You want to talk about shutting down a
very versatile Navy offense. That's a guy that could line
him up a linebacker, lin him up a defensive lineman.

Speaker 7 (01:11:50):
They line him up all over the field.

Speaker 5 (01:11:51):
He's kind of like a joker type of position hybrid player,
but very talented, very athletic. That's the guy to look for.
And you might hear about this in it up coming
up very shortly.

Speaker 7 (01:12:01):
But I think.

Speaker 5 (01:12:02):
Jeremiah Love I put a little I got one of
those free bets on bet MGM recently.

Speaker 7 (01:12:07):
I put it on him to win the Heisman. Do
I think he's going to win the Heisman?

Speaker 2 (01:12:10):
No?

Speaker 5 (01:12:10):
Is he the best player in the country, Yes, and
to me one hundred and six rushing yards. I mean
he might get that in the first half. So twenty
five explosives this year, third most in the country. Price
obviously is the best backup running back in the country,
probably RB one on you know, most powerful rosters.

Speaker 7 (01:12:27):
Navy's defense is really bad against the run.

Speaker 5 (01:12:29):
They gave up one hundred and ninety seven and four
touts to Caleb Hawkins of North Texas last week. So
I think this is going to be a big game
for the Navy or for the Notre Dame running game
for sure.

Speaker 4 (01:12:39):
I've never loved you more than this moment right here.

Speaker 7 (01:12:43):
Listen.

Speaker 5 (01:12:43):
I tell it like it is, whether it's propositive or negative.

Speaker 7 (01:12:46):
I tell it the way I see it.

Speaker 5 (01:12:47):
There's no bias at all my handicapping, unless we're talking
about Penn State.

Speaker 4 (01:12:50):
Yeah, well we'll get to them next hour. You know,
we're gonna test your bias son, that one, you know,
with the Hoosiers come into town. All right, we've got
rich On warren Berger, Penn Stayed, all American, Jared Smith
unbiased FSR betting analyst. Right, I'm Brian No. Be sure
to check out the new looking features in the BETMGM app.
It's fast and easy access to the sports you love.

(01:13:11):
It's the fastest BETMGM app. Ever, it's easier than ever
to find the bets you love. It's a more personalized
experience with popular picks tailored to you and a new
rewards hub with all of your personalized rewards and new
their first bet. That's code countdown in the BETMGM app.

(01:13:32):
All right, coming up next, prop it up. That's right,
the prop betting market.

Speaker 7 (01:13:36):
Man.

Speaker 4 (01:13:36):
There is one defense that is banged up and as
a bad recipe against this team specifically, I'll have that
the guys will have their picks as well, will trade notes.
It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by BETMGM.
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(01:13:57):
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Radio on YouTube and subscribe. All right, let's do this.

Speaker 3 (01:14:18):
Good prop it Up player plays all right.

Speaker 4 (01:14:23):
Prop bets Galore shared we start with you with something
you like.

Speaker 5 (01:14:26):
Yeah, I kind of gave this one out in our
last segment when we were talking Notre Dame Navy, but
I'm going with our guy, Jeremiah Love. All you need
is love over one oh six and a hook in
his rushyard prop today. He has twenty five explosives this year.
That's third most in the country. Navy is not a
good tackling team, guys ninety fifth.

Speaker 7 (01:14:46):
And run defense this year. They just allowed North Texas
as KYLEB.

Speaker 5 (01:14:49):
Hawkins to go bananas one hundred and ninety seven yards
and four touchdown. I love Kayleb Hawkins. He's having a
fantastic here. He is going to be upgrading his status
next year, probably going to transfer into a cow program. However,
he's not Jeremiah Love, who I consider right now to
be the best college football player in the country. Is
he gonna win the Heisman? No, it's a quarterback award

(01:15:09):
and little politics there. But I think pound for pound,
this dude is the class of the running back position
in the country. And I think one hundred yards light
work maybe in the first half against this Swiss cheez
Navy defense over one o six and a half rush.

Speaker 7 (01:15:22):
Yards for mister Love today.

Speaker 1 (01:15:25):
Okay, I'm gonna bring you over to Texas A and
M Missouri that game that we were talking about earlier.

Speaker 2 (01:15:31):
Casey concepts you on.

Speaker 1 (01:15:32):
I think he's going to go for over his fifty
and a half receiving yard total. Here's the reason why
Missouri sits in Cover three Marcel Reid high success rate
against Cover three. The versatile Conceptscione is gonna get.

Speaker 2 (01:15:47):
Open in a multitude of different ways.

Speaker 1 (01:15:50):
He's gonna eat even if they're able to keep a
lid on the explosives.

Speaker 2 (01:15:54):
He's gonna be a big part of the offense today.

Speaker 1 (01:15:56):
So again, Casey concepts, you on give me the over
fifteen and a half receiving yards.

Speaker 2 (01:16:02):
I like it.

Speaker 4 (01:16:02):
I like the breakdown very nice. You know what, let's
I can't break up this over party. You know, let's
go with TCU quarterback Josh Hoover. I like over two
seventy three and a half passing yards, high total co
with good reasons. So Iowa State they're down another safety,
like their secondaries dropping like flies. They've lost four of

(01:16:25):
their five opening day starters in the secondary to injury.
The latest one is Jamison Patten. He's out. And so
I mean Josh Hoover and TCU they love to throw
it against an undermanned Iowa State secondary. He's gonna have
a lot of success today. And also, you know, somewhat
tighter point spread. I guess you could worry if this

(01:16:47):
is like eighteen and a half or something like that.
TCU's favored by seven and a half, So I don't
expect them to just run away and hide, you know,
and they're just running the ball, running the ball. Late
game script gets away from you. I think I always
state it's feisty enough to keep within striking distance ish right,
where it's just not run run, run, run run for

(01:17:07):
the second half. So I like Josh Hoover and sweet
uniforms from TCU eclectic helmets today. Give me Hoover over
two seventy three and a half passing yards.

Speaker 7 (01:17:18):
I like that a lot.

Speaker 2 (01:17:19):
Hoover.

Speaker 5 (01:17:20):
We don't talk about Josh Houber enough, guys. He's having
an awesome year. He was one of the best quarterbacks
in the country last year, and I thought they obviously upgraded.

Speaker 7 (01:17:29):
That's a really good look, honestly, Byron with the safeties
being out.

Speaker 5 (01:17:32):
I would look at his touchdowns prop as well, because
that total is pretty high, right, I mean that's a
you know, almost.

Speaker 7 (01:17:37):
Touching sixty here.

Speaker 5 (01:17:39):
They obviously expect there to be some points in this game,
I think. So I want to give you a name
on Mississippi State. So I was looking and we obviously
like Mississippi State today because we're putting them in.

Speaker 7 (01:17:48):
The parlay platter.

Speaker 5 (01:17:49):
I was watching some film on Mississippi State. They have
a receiver, Brendan Thompson five nine, one seventy. I think
he's the fastest player in the sec. He was running
by Texas corners, like running straight by them, and Texas
I would say is arguably actually to be fair. Texas
defense hasn't been as good this year, but they're still
very athletic, very talented players, and he's just like dead

(01:18:10):
spring with four or five yards in a cloud of dust,
like see you later. I would absolutely look at his
receiving yards prop today and his touchdowns PROP. I didn't
check the number yet, but that was a guy I
wanted to highlight in this segment because he is an
absolute speed demon.

Speaker 7 (01:18:24):
And Mississippi State is gonna behind today. They're gonna be
growing it.

Speaker 5 (01:18:27):
And Blake Shapin I think this is his favorite target.
Brennan Thompson, Mississippi State receiver.

Speaker 7 (01:18:32):
Keep an eye on him. He is a game breaker.

Speaker 4 (01:18:34):
Nice good stuff. I like that you got any bonus
ones over there? Rich, you know you're getting I don't
know you're getting, like the vibes over there in Hawaii,
you know you're getting I don't know, getting some here.

Speaker 2 (01:18:50):
Yeah, it's so funny.

Speaker 1 (01:18:52):
Yeah, I got the I'm here sitting near or really
I mean steps away from Waikiki Beach, and all he
can keep looking at is a game that's gonna.

Speaker 2 (01:19:00):
Be played in Missouri because I then I then looked
over at Mod Hardy.

Speaker 1 (01:19:07):
Yeah, look, I think what you guys said about him
throughout the course of this season has been true. He's
been like a bowling ball, really hard guy to bring down.
And so I would take a look at his overprop
as well.

Speaker 2 (01:19:20):
I actually haven't yet.

Speaker 1 (01:19:21):
I'm trying to pull it up on bet MGM. Here
from the roof of this hotel. What are you looking for?

Speaker 2 (01:19:27):
What is it?

Speaker 1 (01:19:27):
What the Mod Hardy rushing yardist.

Speaker 2 (01:19:31):
Problem went up? It's high.

Speaker 7 (01:19:38):
It's high.

Speaker 1 (01:19:39):
Okay, so he's cooled off a little bit. He's he's
cooled off a little bit. And this A and M
defense is pretty dang good. They're not great tacklers though. Yeah,
here's this is This is a tricky This is a
tricky thing to do. You kind of have to hold
your nose and do it. But if you want another
over Hardy today, it's hard to do. That's a big number.

(01:20:02):
But I'm telling you they do not tackle well. It's
like the Achilles heel of Texas. A and M.

Speaker 4 (01:20:08):
How about here's an under possibility for you. How about
L J.

Speaker 2 (01:20:13):
Martin?

Speaker 4 (01:20:14):
Do I like BYU running back. Yeah, but seventy and
a half rushing yards. This is a fantastic Texas Tech front.
They could be behind by a lot. Gamescript could be
your friend. I like LJ. Martin under seventy and a
half rush.

Speaker 2 (01:20:29):
I like that a lot.

Speaker 7 (01:20:30):
I like that a lot.

Speaker 5 (01:20:31):
Diego Pabia underpassing yard screw. If they are head against Auburn, who's.

Speaker 7 (01:20:34):
Got a really good defense, that's another overlooked all.

Speaker 4 (01:20:36):
Right, coming up next, It's a very sad story, but
an awesome gesture. Ah, good morning, welcome in, happy Saturday
to you, as we are one hour away from kickoff.
And how about this the biggest game of the day,
at least the only top ten matchup, number seven BYU
against number eight Texas Tech. We get it out in

(01:20:56):
less than an hour from now that noon eastern kick time.
And how about this man? That pointspread is growing, It
is alive. You look at Texas Tech. They are now
favored by twelve and a half. The total is steadily
ticking down. Now it's forty nine and a half. I
feel like there needs to be an auctioneer over here
where it's like, hey, ten, let me hear ten, Let

(01:21:17):
me hear Dan eleven and let me hear eleven and
a half.

Speaker 7 (01:21:19):
Eleven.

Speaker 4 (01:21:20):
I mean we got twelve and a half, twelve and
a half, we're up to twelve and a half now, man,
no buy back on BYU either, and we might get
some win. We're thinking maybe thirty mile per hour wind
over there in Lubbock. And these aren't prolific passing offenses.
Baron Morton is listed as probable. He's going today for
Texas Tech. So they get their starting quarterback in there.

(01:21:43):
But in BYU, man, they go slow, you know, slow
it down. They're not the old Phoenix Sun seven seconds
or less offense. Right BYU is like, let's be methodical,
let's be slow, let's grind this scheme to a screeching halt.
So what do you think twelve and a half now
for the Red Raid, Rich, what's your what's your gut
feeling in this one?

Speaker 2 (01:22:04):
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (01:22:04):
I mean when when I look at this game and
I think about what we heard from Seamus earlier, b
Yu is due for a loss at some point, you
know what I mean, And and I think that I
think that day has arrived. I also will say that

(01:22:26):
based on you know, some of the things that we
know about these two teams. I like b A y
US defense pretty good. I think Texas Tech, especially on
their edge, really are chaos generators, is the way I
would like to generators.

Speaker 2 (01:22:42):
I love that they've got.

Speaker 1 (01:22:43):
Ninety five QB pressures on the season. I mean, they
just wreak havoc.

Speaker 2 (01:22:50):
I think.

Speaker 1 (01:22:50):
I think that, coupled with the fact that l J.
Martin is doubtful for this game, and this is a
heavy rushing offense for BYU, and the centerpiece of this
offense today is going to have to really rest on
Bachmeier's shoulders, and they are a very methodical offense, I
would be more comfortable taking the under. I think that

(01:23:13):
it could be a close game, So I'm not in
love with taking Texas Tech. But then again, could I
see it. I could see both ways. I could see
I could see them getting blown out. I could see them.
I could see this being a close game in terms
of BYU getting blown out. I could see it being
close game. However, I don't think the score is going

(01:23:36):
to soar very high because specifically of the way BYU
plays defense and also some of the limitations they may
have offensively today.

Speaker 2 (01:23:45):
So I would prefer to take the under in this game.

Speaker 5 (01:23:49):
So I'll tell you what I did, and then I'll
tell you where I'm at now, because I bet the
under last night BYU's team total under twenty and a
half last night at minus a dollar twenty five. If
you go to bed MGM right now, that's a minus
a dollar sixty. So I was going to give that
out in rapid fire unless we amend the rules in
some way. I don't think that's eligible anymore, and I

(01:24:10):
wouldn't play at any lower than that. I think twenty
is a key number in the total world, right you
don't twenty one doesn't matter as much to me. I mean,
how often new teams just score three touchdowns and no
field goals?

Speaker 7 (01:24:22):
So I would the twenty is important.

Speaker 5 (01:24:24):
So I wouldn't play minus one sixty because it just
it's just too juicy, and you know.

Speaker 7 (01:24:29):
Crazy things can happen.

Speaker 5 (01:24:31):
Now that the numbers kind of getting stretched out here
to thirteen, I didn't see some thirteen and a half.
I would probably lay off this. I just I think
you know this was ten earlier in the week. It's
a big it's a big stretch in a low total game.
The handicap, though, is very one sided. It does feel
hammered or nail on the defensive side. I think for
Texas Tech. I think Texas Tech guys and you know

(01:24:53):
we talk about their you know, skill position groups a lot,
you know me and of course Rich like we're big
in the trenches here. I think Texas Tech might have
the best offensive defensive line combo in the country. Honestly,
they are deep, they are talented, they are physical. The
edge rushers Bailey and Height second and third in PFF
pass rush grade. Again, Ruben Brain Junior is first Miami's

(01:25:15):
star edge rusher. Texas Tech has the second and third
highest graded pass rushers in the country. That is really
good depth. I like their d tackles Holmes and Hunter.
They're both big and physical. On the other side, their
offensive line is the same, like this is a beefy.
This is gonna be a big, physical football game. I'll
give BYU some credit to BYU is a big team
as well. Chase Roberts there stud receiver six four two fifteen, LJ.

(01:25:39):
Martin six two two twenty, the tight end Carson six
four to two fifty. Every offensive lineman is six to
four or above three ten or higher. I mean, this
is again, this is going to be Goliath versus Goliath today.
Now the difference is I think BYU's defensive line and
their defense in general is just a little bit thinner,
and I think that's where Texas Tech can kind.

Speaker 7 (01:25:58):
Of wear them down.

Speaker 5 (01:25:59):
I think Blachmeyer's game, like, I think we're gonna be
talking about this Bachmeyer kid for a couple of years.

Speaker 7 (01:26:04):
He's he's a baller.

Speaker 5 (01:26:06):
The ball just jumps off of his arm, doesn't really
care too much about the fundamentals. Kind of reminds me
of like an athlete who's just good at everything and
he can play quarterback. Really thick kid. The comp is
Baker Mayfield. I think, short, choppy steps, a lot of
horsepower with the arm. So I'm excited to watch him
play a in a tough environment against a really good
defensive line and see how he handles as a freshman
what is going to be probably the most difficult matchup

(01:26:28):
he's seen all year.

Speaker 4 (01:26:29):
Yeah, that's the weird part for me, because Bachmeyer has
played well to this point, like you just said, shared,
but I look at the competition. This is clearly a
step up and what has BYU routinely been able to do.
They've been able to play with the lead. They have
been They've they came back against Colorado, they came back
against Arizona. I'm not saying it's exclusively playing with the lead,

(01:26:51):
but more times than not, that's what they're doing. It's
not their you know, their cup of tea. It's not
their strong suit to just be like, hey, Bear, we're
down by seven, team, man, just lead us to the
promised Land. You know, that's just not where he is.
But he's a freshman quarterback and all things considered, he's
played very well. I just think it's a giant step
up in competition today. And if they find themselves down

(01:27:12):
and maybe down big, it's a completely different scenario for Bear.
So and I look, man, we need to start a
metal band called Havoc, you know we need Has anyone
done that yet? That's not a table, man, that's an
unchecked box right there. But the Red Raiders, man, So,
they forced twenty turnovers. That's number two in the country.

(01:27:32):
They're fifth in three and outs. Yeah, that's forty four
percent of the time they force a three and out.
That's almost half the time. The offense is like, all right,
let's go three and out. You know, three players got
a punt, and also Texas Tech they rank in the
top twenty in sack rate and they don't blitz very
often either, So that's a lot of havoc to deal

(01:27:54):
with if your Bear and that BYU offense, And like
Rich said, with LJ. Martin, he's bang up. He's their
leading rusher. He's rushed for almost eight hundred yards this season.
So if he doesn't go at all, or he's compromised
or ineffective against a great Texas Tech front man, it's
even more on Bear there to do his thing, running, throwing,

(01:28:15):
the whole thing, that's gonna be very, very difficult for
BYU to match points that the points. Brett's starting to
get out of hand at this point. I loved this bet,
you know, a few points ago. But man, the market
has not been our friend here for rapid Fire at
the end of the show, right before kickoff, because man,
it's just gotten so high where you're a complete square.

(01:28:37):
You know, if you're wrong, if you lay the points
when you could have gotten much better value earlier in
the week. But it is what it is, man, It's
like rapid Fire is ten minutes before kickoff, we can't
move that time, you know, So the market has not
been our friend on this one. If you like Texas Tech.

Speaker 2 (01:28:53):
Yeah, that's exactly correct, you know.

Speaker 1 (01:28:55):
And I think the biggest matchup in this game is
gonna be Bachmeier his legs, especially against this Texas Tech defense.
You know, the Cougars rely pretty much solely on zone
read concepts. You know, they they like to you know,
go inside zone, outside zone variations on where the QB

(01:29:16):
inserts on the zone read.

Speaker 2 (01:29:19):
But but without l J.

Speaker 1 (01:29:20):
Martin, you know, it's gonna fall more on him than
it is going to be on whoever his replacement is
or in terms of whether you're thinking yourself, I'm gonna
hand it to him because there's no good options on
this play. Typically you may pull it in that case
because you're healthier. And so Bachmeyer's got a heavy load

(01:29:41):
on his shoulders here. Again, that which is the reason
why the under is singing to me. I feel like
it's gonna be a more methodical game. And also Texas
Tech against this Cougar's defense, they're gonna want to stay
out of passing down situations because the Cougar's you know
men coverage, you know.

Speaker 2 (01:29:58):
Cover one looks they're pretty stifling.

Speaker 1 (01:30:01):
They're really good, as a matter of fact, playing some
man to man coverage options and their Cover three, which
is more zone underneath.

Speaker 2 (01:30:11):
They're they're versatile in that way.

Speaker 1 (01:30:12):
So they're going to present you with a bunch of
different back end platforms that you're gonna have to deal
with from the from the pocket, and it's it's hard
to diagnose, and they do a great job in coverage,
So a tall task for the Red Raiders.

Speaker 2 (01:30:30):
BYU.

Speaker 1 (01:30:31):
Cougars probably get handed their first loss, and again it
could be by you know, two touchdowns. It could be
a closer game than that. But one thing I think
is going to be the focus for me is I
don't know how many points can be scored in this
game because of how efficient the defenses are and also

(01:30:52):
just the style of these offenses who are facing each
other today.

Speaker 7 (01:30:56):
Up the thirteen and a half. Now that MGM, wow.

Speaker 5 (01:31:00):
Minus one oh five splits two of this game very noteworthy.
So you're not only getting a discount on BYU now
significant discount with the Steam, but you're also getting a
discount on the line, and that five cents matters, guys.
I'll be honest, I like Texas Tech. I put him
in the contest at ten. You know, the lines that

(01:31:22):
we get for the contest here in town are very stale, right,
They just they screenshot them basically on a Thursday and
they say these are the lines, and regardless of what
happens between Thursday and Saturday, those are the lines. So
on Friday when I put my contest picks in, this
was ten. Now it's thirteen and a half. And even
though I do have Texas Deck in the contest, I

(01:31:42):
might have to bet byu here.

Speaker 7 (01:31:45):
I'll throw you the wrinkle.

Speaker 5 (01:31:47):
Mark Lefwich the offensive coordinator of Texas Tech. He was
coaching high school football eight years ago. Awesome story. Now
he's a power for coordinator. He is a really interesting story,
very sharp kid, a lot of fun stuff.

Speaker 2 (01:31:59):
Right.

Speaker 5 (01:32:00):
This is a fon exciting, explosive offense. They play really fast.
And when I say they played really fast, when I
was watching the All twenty two on Texas Tech, it's
hard to kind of gauge how fast they run because
you just cut from play to play and you don't
see the in between. But you can kind of tell
based off of the down and distance, Like the guys
who are holding the first down sticks are not even

(01:32:20):
set yet when they're snapping another play. That's how fast
Texas Tech runs. Yeah, the question is Baron. Morton's a
little bit banged up here. I noticed it last week.
He was overstriding a little bit. He's got that lower
body injury that kept him out of a game. I
don't know how healthy he is, so that might slow
down Texas Tech a little bit in this game, and
it also might make their offense a little bit more
inaccurate and inefficient. I love their running game. Jacoby Williams

(01:32:44):
is a freak five ten one eighty five. Cameron Dickey
also a kid who's unafraid to stick his nose in
places that don't smell good if you catch my drift,
and I really love their tight end. Terrence Carter needs
to be accounted for a very tough tackle. But I
think byus up for this challenge. I think now that
we're thirteen and a half and we're getting a five
set discount on the splits, I think BYU might have
to be a rapid fireplay. I think we have to

(01:33:06):
just fade these crazy steam moves guys, because sometimes.

Speaker 7 (01:33:09):
The number moves just a little bit too much.

Speaker 4 (01:33:12):
I like LJ. Martin under, like I mentioned, but are
we sure he's playing? Are we sure he's going?

Speaker 1 (01:33:18):
He could be a scratch he's yeah, questionable as it stands.

Speaker 7 (01:33:22):
Maybe that's why the line moved.

Speaker 2 (01:33:24):
Yeah, it could be.

Speaker 4 (01:33:25):
Might be uh maybe another under route with what you're
saying there, Jared Barren Morton under two sixty and a
half A little bit nicked up for sure. This running
game I would expect Cameron Dickie, Jacoby Williams. They can
run it, like Texas Tech. They don't have the reputation
of just lining up and running it, but they can
do it, and especially in this matchup, I think they

(01:33:46):
could have a lot of success. And they rely on
the ground game quite a bit, where hey, man, to
get to two sixty one, you gotta be throwing it
quite a bit, and I just don't know that Texas
Tech is going to do that today. So that's something
to keep in mind. It's like our pool of potential
plays is shrinking. It feels like with the point spread
moving and all this stuff, like LJ. Martin maybe not playing.

(01:34:09):
But one thing to mention, Jared said this in passing,
but yeah in BETMGM, you look at this low vig.
What does that mean. It's like, you know, less juice
minus one oh five, So it's just the tax if
you lose, right, so you don't have to pay as much.
Minus one oh five is very attractive. So BYU Texas Tech,
that's a game with low vig. Got to be on

(01:34:31):
the lookout for low vig right. Also Georgia, Mississippi State,
and Indiana Penn State, all those games if you're looking
to bet them minus one oh five on either side
at bet MGM right now, So take advantage of that stuff.
We've got Rich Heinberger Penn State, All American, Jared Smith,
FSR betting analyst, I'm Brian No. BETMGM players will receive

(01:34:52):
college Football odds boost tokens and college Football parlay boost
tokens throughout the season to use on college football bets,
score extra winnings if your bet with the token applied wins.
Check it out in the bet MGM app. All right,
coming up next, This is a great, great rivalry, but
that as great this season we'll explain. It is Fox

(01:35:14):
Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bet MGM. It
is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM.
With the iHeartRadio App, you can stream us wherever you
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in the app to stream us live all day, every day,

(01:35:37):
and be sure to select Fox Sports Radio as one
of your presets in the iHeart app so it'll always
pop up at the top of your screen. By the way,
gotta pay this off. I got so, you know, entrenched
in Texas Tech, hosting BYU and the x'es and o's
and the bare Bach buyers and you know. But there
was a really interesting story before we move to LSU, Alabama.

(01:35:58):
So I don't know if you guys heard this. Texas
Tech's team Barber is a guy named Von Ortiz, and
last month his wife, Maddie was critically injured in a
car accident that was caused by a drunk driver. We're talking.
She was on a ventilator for two weeks underwent multiple surgeries.
The couple has a three year old son. Yvon had

(01:36:19):
to miss a decent amount of work to help his
wife out, and so they started to go fund me
and BYU. The fan base heard about this story and
helped in a huge way to the tune of helping
to raise over one hundred and twenty thousand dollars for
this family. It's an awesome story, Like we're getting ready

(01:36:39):
for BYU Texas Tech and shout out to the fans
Man Kook's fans, you know, they were like, let's show
our support this Texas Tech team barber had his wife
critically injured by a drunk driver. Like, let's show some support.
That's awesome, Man's That's what being a good human being
is all about. That's really what college football is all about.
I know we have a rival reason we go back

(01:37:00):
and forth, but we're supposed to help each other at
the end of the day.

Speaker 2 (01:37:04):
Yeah. Yeah, I love this story too. I saw it.

Speaker 1 (01:37:06):
It's it's one of those it's one of those stories
where I don't think I don't think people understand like
how limited it is when you're a college football player.
You know, you think, oh, well, these are student athletes.
They're going to classes and you know they're spending a
lot of time doing other things. And the truth is
you don't have a ton of time to do a lot,

(01:37:29):
you know, during the offseason. Sure, there's times when it's
just springball or winter conditioning when you're on campus, but
like in season, your days are long, you're stretched really thin.
You know, a lot of these guys, even though we
hear all about the name image and likeness, name image
and likeness, a lot of these guys need their degrees.
You know, they're not going to be playing football after college,

(01:37:50):
so they're studying hard. They're they're making sure that they're
you know, crossing their eyes and dotting or or crossing
their t's dotting their eyes. A team barber, that's not
something that every team has. Usually it's a guy who
one of your players meets, does a great job, you know,

(01:38:10):
lining him up, and then all of a sudden he
puts them on with the rest of the team and
it's like everybody gets their haircut, their schedule appointments. It's
somebody who sort of earns their way into having the
privilege of coming down to the facility. And not everybody
goes to the barber, obviously, but it's like a bonding thing.

Speaker 2 (01:38:29):
It's good for the team.

Speaker 1 (01:38:31):
It's another opportunity for guys to spend time with each
other off the field, and you get to know these
people obviously really well. And when something like this happens
to somebody who's within your orbit, what you just said
is right, Brian, Like, at the end.

Speaker 2 (01:38:45):
Of the day, we're all just people.

Speaker 1 (01:38:47):
Everybody's trying to make it things happen, and when bad
things happen, you know, it's not an expectation, but it's
the right thing to do to step up and man,
oh man, for it to be not just the players,
but the fans contributing to this barber's family, the wife
obviously having this medical situation. That is absolutely amazing stuff.

(01:39:11):
I mean, that's that's that's the stuff that's underreported. We
hear about all the ye horrible things a lot more,
but this is great.

Speaker 5 (01:39:20):
Yeah, it doesn't get as many clicks as the negative stuff,
although it should, it really should.

Speaker 7 (01:39:27):
This has been a crazy line movement game though, Guys.

Speaker 5 (01:39:29):
Honestly, I saw a note that recently, if you just
fade these big steam moves, you're actually on top. It's
like a fifty five percent Like if you're on the
right side of the steam. So say you bet Texas
Tech early at ten, it's like a fifty five percent
win rate this year. And then on the flip side too,
if you faded the three point moves in college football

(01:39:52):
this year and you bet BYU plus thirteen and a half,
you're also on the right side of it, on the
positive side of the ledger. So it's kind of a
a lesson in market dynamics, which sounds super boring.

Speaker 7 (01:40:03):
I'm not trying to get I love that you see.

Speaker 5 (01:40:05):
On you guys, right, but it it it's kind of
it's kind of a lesson about it really doesn't matter
what team you bet, the number matters more. Right, we
thought we Crack says this all the time, bet numbers,
not teams, and it sounds super cliche, but he's right
because at the end of the day, when you see
these significant moves, and I don't know the exact impetus

(01:40:25):
behind it. It could be the Martin injury, it could
be something else, could just be a lot of people
on Texas Tech. Same thing with the organ situation, like
we'll see what their number moves to if that, if
that injury report hits in a couple hours and you know,
the whole offense is out like that, maybe that goes
to three and then you have to bet org In
at three. Right, So I think you just have to
ignore some of the noise and and just bet these numbers.

(01:40:47):
I hate it, but I have to. I almost enforced
to take BYU plus thirteen and a half to that.

Speaker 4 (01:40:51):
Okay, life in the SEC. Let's turn our attention over there.
We've got LSU at number four Alabama, FAMA favored by
ten and a half. No Brian Kelly has been fired
interim coach Frank Wilson, and Bama has beaten four ranked opponents,
and they've got some nice wins. But if you look skeptically,

(01:41:12):
you know, critically at some of the things that they've done,
it's like, well, you know, you look at the Georgia game,
there was a big drop in the second half. Kirby Smart,
doesn't go for it on fourth down, He went for
it on fourth down, doesn't kick the field goal. That
was a big deal. At Tennessee. The pick six right
before halftime, huge turnaround in that game. They probably should

(01:41:33):
have lost to South Carolina. Right, So this Bama team,
what do you think ten and a half rivalry game?
I mean, it's not as sexy as it is in
a lot of years. But LSU plus ten and a half.
You're biting on that there, Rich.

Speaker 1 (01:41:48):
You couldn't meet a hotter team than Alabama right now.
That was a good time for a bye week after
defeating four consecutive ranked opponents, I mean, finally getting a
little fresh Ty Simpson. I know, Jared, you've been waving
the banner for Ty Simpson for a long time.

Speaker 2 (01:42:09):
You know.

Speaker 1 (01:42:09):
I think everybody seemed to overlook this guy heading into
the season, including myself. Yeah, I was more thinking about
Kaylin de Boor and you know, him continuing to settle
his culture in as opposed to really looking at the
five star who shined this season and is deservedly so
in the Heisman conversation, and then you look at LSU

(01:42:31):
and you think, okay, also good time for a bye week.
The departure of Brian Kelly opens the door, but also
it potentially creates a little chaos inside of the building.
Nussmeier has been an interesting quarterback to watch this season.
I think he's got unbelievable talent, but he really also

(01:42:57):
has this high risk potentiality that has manifested this year.
He's kind of careless with the football, and when you're
a Maverick and you think you can fit the ball
in spots that you really can't. Or sometimes you try
to throw a pass to a receiver who's covered and
it just comes up the wrong way.

Speaker 2 (01:43:18):
It can be bad luck.

Speaker 1 (01:43:19):
But Nussmeyer, he's leading the SEC with twelve or excuse me,
he's still having a tough season turning over the football
after leading the SEC with twelve interceptions last year. So
it's one of those things. I think I like Alabama.
I don't know if I would bet Alabama minus ten

(01:43:43):
and a half or whatever it's at at this point,
but if I had a lean, I think that's my direction.

Speaker 5 (01:43:50):
Yeah, nus Meyer is an intriguing case. I think we
expected a lot more from him this year. The turnover
where he plays are substantial, although he did a good
job limiting them against A and M.

Speaker 7 (01:44:02):
Yeah, thanks for you.

Speaker 2 (01:44:04):
Guys.

Speaker 5 (01:44:04):
Are finally coming around on ty Simpson. Huh, finally getting
there with Bama. Now, listen, this is a This is
a tough this is a tough spot. It is because
elis he's gonna throw the kitchen sink at him. I
will say this, I think LSU secondary is pretty solid,
top thirty in coverage grade this year. Mansord Delanne. Really
good corner out of a votech transfer, probably going to
be a first round pick. He had a third round

(01:44:25):
grade last year, but he wanted to prove it and
come to the SEC and say I can play at
the highest level. And he's done a good job this year.
I think he's going to be a first rounder. He's
going to be tested this week. Doesn't panic, doesn't commit penalty.
He's only been targeted twenty five times, eight receptions, no
touchdowns all year. It's only been targeted seven times in
the last four games. That's how good he is. He's
playing in the SEC and he's not getting targeted. That
is really impressive. Their other two corners are young, but talented.

(01:44:48):
Woodland smaller one hundred and sixty five pounds retrit freshman,
struggled the last two weeks against Vandy and Ole Miss
and DJ Pikett true freshman, five star, really talented. How
about this six five, one hundred ninety five pound He
plays corner, not power forward. He plays corner in college
football a freshman six', five one hundred and ninety five
Pound really talented, kid but can he hold up against

(01:45:11):
WHAT i would consider the best receiving trio in the, Country,
Horton bernard And.

Speaker 7 (01:45:15):
Williams williams of.

Speaker 5 (01:45:17):
Course the slot receiver six, foot really Shifty, bernard the
line him up all over the. Field six to two
transfer From Michigan state also came From washington with The,
boar and Then horton's really the big stud The Miami
transfer six to Four ALPHA x. Receiver they are just
so dynamic at this receiving.

Speaker 7 (01:45:31):
Group you would Expect.

Speaker 5 (01:45:33):
Jan miller to be a week. Healthier he's been banged
up this. Year The bama running game has not impressed.
Me The bama offensive line hasn't impressed. Me the issue
is they struggle against speed.

Speaker 7 (01:45:42):
Rush we saw.

Speaker 5 (01:45:43):
It Against, missoo we saw it Against South carolina's got
a very good pass. RUSH lsu doesn't have That Harold.

Speaker 7 (01:45:48):
Perkins he's kind.

Speaker 2 (01:45:49):
Of a.

Speaker 7 (01:45:51):
Misfit right. Now they don't really know where to play.

Speaker 5 (01:45:53):
Him AND lsu doesn't have that true edge speed rusher
THAT i think is gonna give The bama offensive line,
problems which has given them problems this. Year SO i could,
see you, Know bama having some time back there And
simpson just kind of chilling and picking apart this secondary
which is a very good.

Speaker 7 (01:46:09):
Secondary the question Is.

Speaker 5 (01:46:11):
Brian can Can LSU's offense do, anything because it's been
a disaster this. Year offensive line has been, Bad bama's
off defensive line hasn't been.

Speaker 7 (01:46:18):
Great BUT i think they. CAN i think they'll be
up for this. Challenge, YEAH i.

Speaker 4 (01:46:22):
DON'T i don't Love bama's defense. Collectively that's the thing that,
that you, know limits my love For. BAMA i don't
like their running game at, all AND i DON'T i
don't love their. DEFENSE i like their defense better than
their running, game but, MAN i just don't like when
an offense can become one. Dimensional, now granted it's a
very good one dimension passing game has been very. Good

(01:46:45):
Tys simpson has had a very very good, season Legitimate heisman.
Contender they're wide receiving corps is. FANTASTIC i Know Ryan
williams is banged. Up that hurts, them but still very
very good receiving corps. THERE i just don't like how
they're often one. DIMENSION i want to see a better running.
GAME i want to see a better defense BEFORE i
like totally buy In, tobama but that's just not what

(01:47:06):
they bring to the table this. Year you, know SO
i think that their ceiling is. Limited that's just. Me
let's get to the top two. Teams, no these are
big point spreads. Here but you, KNOW i don't know
how many notes you have On Ohio state Versus perdue,
right like. Nothing they've been, competitive they've, improved and they
still have lost seven games in a. Row you, know
Like Ohio state last, week they're, Like, okay that's. Cute Penn,

(01:47:31):
state you hung, around you, know you covered the first half,
line WHICH i was very happy, about by the, way
and Then Ohio state's, like all, right now take this
whooping with, you you, know so they can crank it.
Up we know that anything you want to mention On
Ohio state before we get to The Penn. State you,
Know Nitney lions taking on the number two rank team
in the.

Speaker 7 (01:47:50):
Country we have to. Do we have to get to that.

Speaker 2 (01:47:52):
Game, yeah we can spend a lot of time On.

Speaker 1 (01:47:56):
Perdue let's break down their Secondary, Nah, LISTEN i think
THAT i think That purdue having zero conference wins and
being two and seven overall is pretty endemic of what
we're seeing in college, football you, know sort of to
broaden the scope away from this, game WHERE i could
easily See Ohio state covering this, SPREAD i would have

(01:48:20):
a harder. Time let's put it this, way if you're
looking for an, ANGLE i have a harder time making
an argument For purdue.

Speaker 2 (01:48:29):
Putting up a.

Speaker 1 (01:48:30):
Fight here THAT i can For Ohio state covering the.
Spread but getting back to, this, like there are so
many teams that are playing so far under their expectations
this football, season AND i Think purdue is obviously one of.

Speaker 2 (01:48:46):
Them but it's not even just your record that reflects.

Speaker 1 (01:48:48):
It it's wherever your expectations were set at the start
of the. Season so think ABOUT, lsu think About Penn,
state think ABOUT i, Mean Luke, fickle it seemed like
he was in, danger just sort of got the nod
from the athletic direct director that he's going to be.
Back but there's a bunch of openings right, Now, Napier

(01:49:09):
there's a ton of them because expectations sore so much higher.

Speaker 2 (01:49:13):
NOW i, mean we're going.

Speaker 1 (01:49:15):
To see probably ten or twelve plus jobs open in
top fifty programs across THE. Fbs it's so many more
than we're used to, seeing and it's because of.

Speaker 2 (01:49:28):
The pressure that's being placed on these.

Speaker 1 (01:49:31):
Schools, now these programs because of the expansion of the
college football. Playoff if you don't look competitive where you
can't even cling on to the, bottom, wrong you, know
just put our ball on the roulette wheel for a
chance at hitting a, number you know WHAT i, Mean
give us a, chance then you're. Out and that's what

(01:49:52):
you're seeing with a lot of these football programs across.
Country it's.

Speaker 2 (01:49:55):
Amazing And purdue might be the next.

Speaker 5 (01:49:57):
One, YEAH i have nothing nice to say About. PURDUE
i make the game thirty. Two you want to lay
it With Ohio, State i'm not gonna argue with. You,
YEAH i think the bigger the bigger picture here is
how dominant Is Ohio state compared to the rest of the,
field Right, like that's where we need to start framing
this discussion because obviously the game Against purdue is not

(01:50:18):
going to be important. Today they play one more important
game this. Year it's the last game of the. Year
it's At. Michigan that'll be the last game that we
really get up For Ohio state in the regular. Season
and then is the is the world? Ready is the
universe ready for one versus? Two Ohio state Versus indiana
in three four? Weeks the big ti championship. GAME i,
mean that's gonna be awesome if we get.

Speaker 7 (01:50:39):
IT i think we'll get.

Speaker 5 (01:50:40):
It right, Now Ohio state's about a three and a
half point favorite Against indiana in that. Game could have
changed between now and. Then, SURE i don't see it going, down.
THOUGH i JUST i don't see a world Of Ohio
state unless The michigan bug bites them. AGAIN i just
don't see a world where they're not a significant favorite
in that, game at least by a field. GOAL i

(01:51:02):
do think they are head and shoulders the best team
in the country right, now and a lot of it's
because Of julian's. Saying and that's to me the part
about their handicap that we were very uncertain. About we
knew their defense was going to be, good we weren't
sure how. Good but now that we've Seen patricia kind
of settle, in it's just as good as it, was
if not better than last. Year we knew their receivers
were going to be. Elite they're running games a little,

(01:51:24):
questionable but they have experience and they've got some beef. There,
DONALDSON i like. Him The West virginia, transfer and they
got a couple other youngsters that are. Solid the offensive line's.
Okay the biggest question is Was julian saying going to
be able to take that? STEP i think he. Has
he looks like one of the best quarterbacks in the
country right. Now that's going to be the question for
him down the. Stretch can he continue to make strides

(01:51:45):
because if he's better Than Will, howard this team's better
than it was last.

Speaker 7 (01:51:49):
Year and that's.

Speaker 4 (01:51:49):
Scary all, right real, FAST i you Against Penn. STATE
i see what you guys have. Done you filibustered long
enough so you can avoid talking about this terrible three
and Five Nitney lions. Team but the betting, public they're
mounting up and riding with The Nitney lions over, here
right the hook is gone no longer fourteen and a

(01:52:11):
half Now Penn state just fourteen point home. Underdogs the one, thing,
though Is indiana has absolutely clabbered bad teams this, year
and make no, Mistake Penn state is a bad football.
Team so that's the scary. THING i you could open
a can, today but, hey the hook is. Gone for
what it's, worth there's some betters out, There they're, like

(01:52:32):
give me The Nitney lions plus. Fourteen let's do. It
so there you, Go, rich you have exactly One american
minute to talk trash About Penn state or wax poetic ABOUT,
iu whatever you'd like to.

Speaker 2 (01:52:43):
Do, Man i'd rather wax poetic ABOUT.

Speaker 1 (01:52:46):
Iu BUT i guess the easier, pull and probably the
one everyone's waiting, for is me to talk bad About Penn.
States i'll say, this the backfield has been a. Mess
singleton has been an. MIA i, mean it's Been allen
for the majority of the. Season After singleton turned into
turned in just under eleven hundred yards rushing a season,

(01:53:07):
ago he's averaging like less.

Speaker 2 (01:53:09):
Than four yards per.

Speaker 1 (01:53:10):
CARRY i don't know what it, is it's three point
eight something like. That it's been kind of. Abysmal Drew
aller's replacement a, Quarterback bachmeyer has been pretty, rough throwing.
Interceptions in the two and a half games he's started
now or played, In he's only completing just over sixty
percent of his. Passes this offense is a struggle bus to. Watch,

(01:53:34):
defensively Though Penn state still got a good. Defense they
can wake up any. Time here's the. Question i'll leave
it For jarrett to answer, it because My american minute is.
Up is the defense good enough to slow down this
machine That signetti has created With mendoza at the helm In.

Speaker 5 (01:53:51):
Indiana i'll give you a some nuggets that might make
you think that they. CAN i don't know if they'll execute,
it But mendoza's efficiency has dropped considerably under pressure this,
year adjusted acuracy drops by about twenty, percent and against
the blitz it drops by about ten.

Speaker 7 (01:54:08):
Percent, NOW i don't know.

Speaker 5 (01:54:11):
What Jim knowles is doing with his millions of dollars
that he took From Penn state to take this defensive coordinator.
JOB i guess it just takes a long time for
this thing to settle in like, concrete or it's more,
like you, know slow drying. Concrete but if they can
get some pressure On. Mendoza they got a little pressure
On saying last. Week BUT i think the receivers For
Ohio state are just so.

Speaker 7 (01:54:30):
Good it's just.

Speaker 5 (01:54:31):
Hard indiana is not as talented at the receiver. Position
AND i Heard sarots battling the. Injury so that's the
path For Penn. State, right you drop back into his,
zone you Confuse, mendoza you get some, pressure and you
make a play defensively because this, offense.

Speaker 4 (01:54:47):
Yeah it's, bad it's, bad it's not very. Good we've
Got Rich, Hornberger Penn State All, American Jared SMITH, fsr betting.
Analyst i'm probably in no coming out next rapid. Fire
we each have three selections for, you a, piece a
bushel of. Picks we'll throw them all at you right
around the. Corner it Is Fox Sports Radios countdown To,

(01:55:09):
kickoff presented BY. Betmgm it Is Fox Sports Radios countdown To,
kickoff presented by BET. Mgm if you missed any of today's,
show you'll want to catch the. Podcast just Search Fox
Sports radio wherever you get your. Podcasts right after the,
show today's pod will be. Posted be sure to follow,
it rate it five, stars and you can even provide a.

Speaker 2 (01:55:30):
Review.

Speaker 4 (01:55:30):
Again just Search Fox Sports radio wherever you get your,
podcasts and you'll find today's full show posted right after
we get off the. Year props to the. Crew our
trusted Producer Bo benson The Dodger Zone. Pod bo is
watching highlights Of game seven thinking The dodgers are still
somehow going to. Lose it's. Crazy check them out on his,

(01:55:51):
Podcast Awesome. Dude technical Producer Extraordinary Chris purfet doing work
Today gollin's right and be locked in tomorrow and Is Troy.
Lions that's. Right that's how we always end our discussions
each week is Go. Loins that's. It then we cut
out and we leave and go our separate. Ways shout
out to our Guy sager on digital posting our. Clips

(01:56:12):
Give Fox Sports radio a follow ON x you'll see our,
videos all of our, picks all that good. Stuff top
of the, hour up on GAME Tj, Huschman, Zada, Plexico.
Burus they have got you. Covered keep a locked right
here On Fox Sports. Radio all, right we got some
picks to. Bake let's do it.

Speaker 2 (01:56:31):
Rapid.

Speaker 4 (01:56:32):
Fire all, Right, jared we start with.

Speaker 2 (01:56:35):
You what do you?

Speaker 10 (01:56:35):
Like?

Speaker 2 (01:56:36):
WELL i, suck.

Speaker 5 (01:56:37):
GUYS i don't Think i've want to bet in like
a month on this. Show it's been a weird. Year
i'm nine and twenty one on the. Season it's actually.
Crazy i'm not having that bad of a year in
all of college, football but just on this show with
these Rapid fire.

Speaker 7 (01:56:51):
Picks so what happens when you're in the? Slump what
DO i? DO i just keep things really.

Speaker 5 (01:56:55):
Simple i'm gonna pick five and a half points With
iola in this. Game it's down from six and a half.

Speaker 7 (01:56:59):
EARLIER i don't.

Speaker 5 (01:57:00):
CARE i think it's gonna keep dropping BECAUSE i think
The oregon offensive injuries are pretty.

Speaker 7 (01:57:03):
SUBSTANTIAL i Think.

Speaker 5 (01:57:05):
Oregon offensively is going to struggle against WHAT i think
is a pretty Good iowa zone.

Speaker 7 (01:57:11):
Defense So i'll take the points With.

Speaker 5 (01:57:12):
Iowa i'll take the points With ukon today plus seven
and a half Against. Duke we heard about this in
the shamous special Segment.

Speaker 7 (01:57:18):
Who's the bonus pick?

Speaker 5 (01:57:19):
Today BUT i was hot and heavy on This yukon
team coming into the. WEEK i think it's a look
ahead spot For. Duke yukon played him tough At duke last.
Year now they get a home game in a, weird
tricky spot with a look ahead next week For.

Speaker 7 (01:57:31):
Virginia SO i Think duke is going to be a
little bit off their game.

Speaker 5 (01:57:33):
Today i'll take You coup plus seven and a half
And i'll take the over fifty four and a. HALF
Smu Boston College fast Versus, fast both teams top ten and.
TEMPO smu coming off that crazy win Over, MIAMI i
think they will be a little bit lighter on the
defensive effort, today And Boston college defense is, terrible averaging
thirty three per.

Speaker 2 (01:57:49):
Year all, right very.

Speaker 1 (01:57:51):
Good, Actually i'm going to keep it pretty simple here,
too with my rapid fire picks as. Well Amon Hardy
miszoo running back against THIS a AND. Mv don't overthink.
It he's had a slowdown since ENTERING sec. Play he's
still great at breaking tackles And TEXAS a AND m
is a poor tackling.

Speaker 2 (01:58:09):
Team room for explosives.

Speaker 1 (01:58:11):
There i'm going over ninety two and a half rushing
yards from Madd Hardy Iowa oregon the same. GAME jad
was just talking about the total set at forty two
and a.

Speaker 2 (01:58:22):
Half i'm taking the.

Speaker 1 (01:58:22):
Over here's, WHY i think That dante more is going
to have the things he likes taking away from. Him
oregon's going to be relying on the run. Game we
KNOW i was going to rely on the run, game
So i'll take the. OVER i think points will be
scored in this. Game Notre dame team total over forty
two and a, half or excuse, me over forty one
and a. Half i'm taking that number BECAUSE i don't

(01:58:45):
think The midshipmen are going to score a, point so
you may as well put it all On Notre. Dame,
anyways they play zero defense and no. OFFENSE i salute
our brave arm service, members but that is a sinking
ship At. Navy i'm Going Notre dame over their team
total forty one and a.

Speaker 4 (01:59:03):
Half nothing, personal just business, here, right rich, Business we're
pretty much on the same side. Here i'm gonna take
The Navy Notre dame. Over i'm gonna go over fifty
five and a. Half navy is not going to come
close to Stopping Notre dames. Defense they're one hundred and
third and points giving up per. Drive that their defense.
Sucks Notre dame is gonna dice them up something, nasty

(01:59:26):
AND i just don't Trust Notre dames defense to be locked,
in you, know assignment football all game. Long chris ash
has his detractors with good. Reason i'll take over fifty
five and a. Half this is a little bit, daring
but you gotta be daring in rapid. Fire give Me
clemson minus a point and a half Against Florida. State
Here clemson is trying to avoid their fifth home. Loss let's,

(01:59:49):
see Like i'm looking at these mock, DRAFTS a bunch
Of clemson dudes in the first round left and right
like The Florida. States this is their third road. Game
they also lost A. Stanford you, Know i'll Take clemson
minus a point and a. Half and, MAN i really
want to get in on THIS byu. GAME i want
to FADE.

Speaker 2 (02:00:06):
Lj.

Speaker 4 (02:00:07):
MARTIN i don't know if he's. PLAYING i want to
go Under Baron. Morton i'm not gonna do. That i'm
gonna Take Josh, hoover THE tcu quarterback going up against
the banged UP isu secondary over two seventy three and
a half

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