Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff Presented by BetMGM!

Brian Noe, Rich Ohrnberger, Jared Smith preview Super Bowl LX from every possible angle, Tom Brady takes a stand on who he's rooting for, thoughts on the NFL MVP voting, and more! Plus - Parlay Platter, Prop It Up, Follow the Money with Seamus Magee, and Rapid Fire!

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Are you ready to witness football fans?

Speaker 2 (00:04):
Welcome to the biggest tailgate party in the nation. Ay,
that'd be bro Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented
by Matt.

Speaker 3 (00:17):
Making Legendary.

Speaker 2 (00:18):
We're setting you up with the information you need before
the big game tomorrow.

Speaker 4 (00:24):
Let's go.

Speaker 3 (00:25):
We're here to break it all down.

Speaker 5 (00:28):
Yeah good.

Speaker 4 (00:29):
This is Fox.

Speaker 2 (00:31):
Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by Matt Echa.

Speaker 3 (00:35):
No, we're live on your tailgame.

Speaker 2 (00:38):
Here's Brian Nook, former Penn State All American, Rich Hornberger,
and FSR betting analyst Jared Smith.

Speaker 1 (00:45):
Oh what is going on? Welcome in, Happy Saturday, Happy
super Boys. Uh huh, let's get after it over here.

Speaker 4 (00:54):
You know, it's funny.

Speaker 1 (00:55):
I was thinking, dude, it do a three hour preview
today and maybe throw out our predictions at the end.
The Patriots are going to win seventeen to thirteen. There
you go, Oh wow, you went right to it. Yeah,
so run dive right in.

Speaker 6 (01:12):
You know what I'm saying, No more super Bowl talk
rest of the show. Let's talk about.

Speaker 1 (01:16):
Oh no, plenty of super Bowl talk. But you know what,
it's just kind of like, I don't know, like like
kind of whining and dining you and getting you ready
for the big moment. It was just dive right in.
Boom there it is, right. I don't understand all this
Patriots negativity, this criticism, this disbelief over here, as if
you can't just luck your way into winning sixteen of

(01:38):
seventeen games and getting to the super Bowl. It's such
a joke. All the talk that I've heard for the
last two weeks about these lucky Patriots, and it's like
they've got a really good defense, MVP caliber quarterback, really
good head coach. They bring way more to the table
than just the luck factor and the schedule factor. It's

(01:58):
insanity to me. So I don't know, maybe I've just
grown some affection for the Patriots or but I think
they are more than live to not just hang in
this game, but to win this game. How do you
guys see it? If we just dive right it, let's
be differently, do a cannonball right into the waters here
instead of it's kind of weaving our way up to the

(02:18):
big moment.

Speaker 6 (02:19):
Yeah, I mean, I don't hate it because I mean,
to be perfectly honest with you, I don't think anybody
is turning on the program.

Speaker 4 (02:27):
At kickoff, so to speak.

Speaker 6 (02:29):
When it comes to a radio show and listening for
three straight hours to the three of us, you know,
henpeck every single detail of every single game being played.
So yeah, whether you're joining us now or you're tuning
in for the last fifteen minutes, or you know, the
two hours and a half in between, you may or

(02:49):
may not catch our super Bowl pick.

Speaker 4 (02:51):
So we may as well lay it out. I actually think.

Speaker 6 (02:54):
It's going to be a similar game to you, Brian.
I think it'll be close. I think it'll be relatively
low scoring. And if I were to call it right now, yeah,
something like twenty oh man. Yeah, maybe like there's gonna

(03:14):
be a blocked extra point.

Speaker 7 (03:17):
Or oh oh y you know, or you lot some
good ads on that. Yeah, we can get.

Speaker 5 (03:23):
That.

Speaker 4 (03:24):
Yeah.

Speaker 6 (03:24):
Yeah, there's gonna be like a block kick somewhere in
this game, Like you know what I mean, there's always
something in the Super Bowl, you know, like an odd
special teams gaff.

Speaker 4 (03:34):
This is gonna give me. Give me. Seattle wins twenty
to seventeen.

Speaker 7 (03:39):
Wow.

Speaker 6 (03:40):
Yeah, that's the final score I gave out on my
on my podcast this week, Little Jack final score Seahawks
twenty Patriots seventeen.

Speaker 7 (03:48):
I'm with you, guys.

Speaker 8 (03:49):
I think it's I mean, we might be the only
three people on planet Earth that are thinking New England
can hang here. I mean, I heard some reports from
Radio Row this week that it was all right, and
that's all like the nash Chan media that you know,
don't really go through a lot of the numbers and
the and the betting angles like we do, you know,
with a fine tooth comb every week.

Speaker 7 (04:09):
But I heard it was a lot of Seahawks love there.

Speaker 8 (04:12):
Bet MGM is like sixty five seventy percent Seahawks tickets
right now. It's a little different on the money line,
right You get some Patriots love on the money line,
you know, and they're the underdog. But the the ideal
result for the sports book from what I hear right
now is a Seahawks win with.

Speaker 7 (04:29):
A Patriots cover by a field goal, right or two
or one. Obviously obviously that's less likely, but there you go.

Speaker 8 (04:36):
Rich blockfield goal at bet MGM, the yes is plus
seven fifty.

Speaker 4 (04:40):
Okay, what do you think it'll top?

Speaker 1 (04:42):
Block block field goal? Can it be an ex point
field goal?

Speaker 8 (04:47):
It doesn't say extra point and that and that could
be that could be your tricky spot. Yeah, but there
is a there is a hold on there is is
why I love the Super Bowl. There is a market
that says the method of the first missed field goal
or extra point, and you could get kick blocked for
ten to one. You could also get hit the crossbar

(05:09):
for twenty five.

Speaker 1 (05:10):
To one, sixty eight yard attempt or something like that,
hit the crossbar.

Speaker 7 (05:17):
Yeah, sure, but yeah, I think I agree.

Speaker 8 (05:20):
I think New England's defenses of all the units, I
did a deep dive on this one this week, of
all the units on the field, We're talking a lot
about Donald right, We're talking a lot about the Seahawks defense,
obviously because they're elite. We're talking a lot about Drake
May maybe should have won the MVP, maybe should have not.
We can get into that later too. We're not talking
a lot about the Patriots defense, and that is usually
the indicator that we probably should be because this is

(05:42):
a real this is a really good defense, guys, and
they have adjusted their tendencies in the playoffs. We talked
about how they're blitzing more. I love the secondary, I
love the interior of the defensive line. I think they're
gonna do well against this run game, and then can
Drake may out dual Donald?

Speaker 4 (05:57):
Right?

Speaker 8 (05:58):
Can can they make a couple more play? Can they
make a special teams play? Like, I think that's gonna
kind of what it's gonna come down to.

Speaker 1 (06:03):
It's crazy. There was this stat earlier in the week
and it just said the Seahawks are the first team
to receive seventy percent or more of the spread bets
in the Super Bowl, the most popular bet in Super
Bowl history. It just blows my mind. And listen, Seattle
is a really good team, there's no doubt about that,

(06:25):
and they have some clear advantages on paper, but football
is not played on paper. Like weird stuff happens all
the time. You just go back to the NFC Championship game. Well,
the last game we saw with Seattle and the Rams
muffed the punt and that had a huge impact on
the game, and that led to the Seattle taking a

(06:46):
double digit lead and the Rams had to scratch and
claw their way back and almost got all the way
there but not quite. The muffed punt was huge. And
so it's like a game like this, it's the Super Bowl.
We talk about it for two weeks and I think
people just start looking at how it lays out on paper,
and it's like, wholl Seattle has this advantage and they
have that advantage, and how could they not. It just

(07:08):
gets talked up that way and it's like, bro games
are not played on paper, man, it just doesn't work
like that. And the last thing I'll say for now
is that this lack of respect for the Patriots. We've
seen this movie before and I'm not saying it's gonna
play out the exact same way. But again, go back
to the last time you saw the Patriots play the

(07:28):
AFC title game against Denver, and leading up to that game,
it was a week of insanity in terms of what
Jared Stidham was gonna do. Right, Bo Nicks got hurt
in walks Jared Stidham and the comments were like, oh,
he can do everything bo Knicks can do. It's like
bo Knicks led the league in passing attempts. Like the

(07:49):
amount of reps that Bo Knicks has gotten the last
two years compared to Stidham. Stidham didn't start, He played
a game at the end of the twenty three season.
It's been full years since the guy took the field.
In the NFL and he's just gonna like walk into
the AFC title game. And I can't even tell you
if you've seen Bonnicks and Jared's did him in the

(08:09):
same room before, I haven't. He's gonna be the spitting image.
It was ridiculous. It made no sense, But make no mistake,
it was fueled from this lack of belief in the Patriots.
And I think that's where the over the top love
for the Seahawks is coming from. Seattle's a really good team,
but it's fueled by, Oh, we think the Patriots are

(08:29):
just fools, gold benefactors of a soft schedule, benefactors of
injury luck. That's all they are. And now Seattle is
just like the eighty five Bears defensively and like the
seven Patriots on offense, and they're just they're gonna win.
It's just a matter of how much it's crazy. To me,
that's just not reality.

Speaker 6 (08:48):
Yeah, there's a really strong narrative that this is gonna
be a lopsided super Bowl, and who knows, by the way,
maybe it turns out that way. But my best guess
sitting here this morning, and I don't think it's gonna
change much over the next you know, whatever it is
to kick off. I mean we're hours away. We're just
over twenty four hours away before we're really gonna be

(09:08):
settling in with the appetizers and the chips and the
guacamole and whatever else you serve. But like the reality is,
I mean, locks sure, things fail all the time in
sports or or things related to sports. I mean, if
we want to talk directly about sports, we turn on
March Madness and we call it March Madness for exactly

(09:30):
that reason, because the one seed Virginia can be toppled
by UNBC at sixteen, like it can happen. I mean,
you want to talk about something that's kind of sports
adjacent but related to what we're talking about right now.
I mean, if you would have told me last year
around this time that Bill Belichick's name would be up

(09:50):
for a Hall of Fame candidacy, will he be a
first ballot Hall of Famer? I would have I would
have literally bet my life.

Speaker 4 (09:58):
Yes. But here we are, you know, I mean.

Speaker 6 (10:03):
The reality of sports or things related to sports are
unconventional outcomes.

Speaker 4 (10:09):
Occur all the time.

Speaker 6 (10:12):
So how are we looking at a four and a
half point spread and being like nah, no chance, no chance.

Speaker 4 (10:19):
Are you kidding me?

Speaker 6 (10:20):
We're talking about we're talking about a little more than
half of a touchdown to get your home.

Speaker 4 (10:27):
Give me a break.

Speaker 6 (10:28):
Yeah, So that's the The Belichick one is the best
one ever that I think if you set odds on that,
they wouldn't have even made it.

Speaker 7 (10:36):
They would be no odds high.

Speaker 4 (10:38):
If you could make for that.

Speaker 1 (10:38):
I would just dared. I'd like the picture, you know,
on the bet mgm abb it's not just yes, No,
there's another yes, Comma, I bet my life on this.

Speaker 7 (10:48):
Yeah.

Speaker 6 (10:50):
The Belichick thing is the best example ever.

Speaker 8 (10:54):
Of why there is no sure things in life. You
are born and you die. That is really the only
things I could say for certain, Like I don't even
know if this is real.

Speaker 6 (11:07):
Like the whole simulation theory has taken on a lot
of a lot of water.

Speaker 8 (11:11):
Over the last few months, all the crazy to go.
I don't even know what it's really anymore. No, they
there's a there's a certain level of complacency in in
like the national circuits. When we like make our minds
up on something, it's very hard to.

Speaker 7 (11:26):
Change that attitude and the you're seeing it.

Speaker 8 (11:30):
I mean that that's why That's why when you turn
on these shows and you hear actual people who really bet,
Like when mc crack does his show tomorrow with with
with Brian and Jeff and you start hearing.

Speaker 7 (11:41):
A lot of the quips and a lot of the little.

Speaker 8 (11:43):
Sayings that that he'll give you, Like, yeah, it's you know, God,
God shines on the book makers, right, like the the
odd the public fade, the public like these things.

Speaker 7 (11:52):
We say these things for a reason because people are
wrong about sports all the time.

Speaker 6 (11:59):
And that's why these casinos are very bright, very shiny,
and the lights are always on because people get it
wrong a lot.

Speaker 8 (12:06):
We get it to the actual like nuts and bolts
of the game. Like I can come up with a
lot of reasons why New England has an edge in
this game. I come up with a lot of reasons
why Seattle's got a really big edge in this game. Like, honestly,
I think the matchup between Donald and May is fascinating.
I think Drake May has a couple of edges in
his corner. I think Sam Donald has overcome a lot
and deserves a lot of the love that he is getting.

(12:27):
I think the Seattle defense is fantastic. They are one
of the most unique.

Speaker 7 (12:31):
Mike McDonald is.

Speaker 6 (12:32):
Trying to become the first head coach ever in the
history of the sport to win a Super Bowl while
calling the defensive singles signals. Belichick, Landry Nol, none of
those guys have ever done that, So that's a lot, right.

Speaker 7 (12:47):
I think this.

Speaker 8 (12:48):
Patriots coaching staff, I'll be honest, I think they're more experienced.
Rabel's got a hell of a lot more experience with
Mike McDonald. Think nothing away from McDonald, but as a
head coach, Rabel's been there a long time, been doing.

Speaker 6 (12:59):
It a while. How about the offensive coaches? Josh mcgamer
has been a head coach in this league. He has
seen everything and he's done a hell of a job
this year. Clint Kubiak, take nothing away from him.

Speaker 7 (13:12):
He just was interviewing for a.

Speaker 8 (13:14):
Job with the Raiders over the last two weeks, winding
and dining with Tom Brady. So I think there is
a couple of edges in this game for New England.
We talked about the defense. I think they've got an
edge in the coaching box. I think Seattle's got better players,
and the game is played on the field with players,
and that's why they're favored in the game.

Speaker 7 (13:31):
They deserve to be favored in the game.

Speaker 6 (13:33):
But if you're telling me that this one's done and dusted,
because Seattle's look great in the playoffs and New England's
kind of skated by against subpar competition.

Speaker 8 (13:41):
To Brian's original point about the schedule, I'm sorry. You
got to go out there and win the games. And
New England deserves credit for going out there and winning
these games.

Speaker 4 (13:49):
No doubt.

Speaker 1 (13:50):
And I'll say this, you know, really hats off to
both teams for getting to the Super Bowl. If you
look at the preseason odds before we got to Week one,
You've heard this quite a bit, but Seattle their odds
to win the Super Bowl sixty to one. The Patriots
were eighty to one. Like those are long shots to
make it to the Super Bowl. And like we have
to go all the way back to when the Bengals

(14:13):
met the Niners in Super Bowl sixteen, Like that was
the first one you know in Detroit, and they're on
AstroTurf in the whole thing. Bengals were sixty to one,
forty nine, Ers were fifty to one. So this Super
Bowl is these are bigger long shots, like to match
up and to meet each other in the super Bowl.
And I mean that's the thing that the Patriot criticism

(14:35):
and Patriot hatred for those people that are saying that,
I hope you profited off of them. If this was
so obvious to see and so easily explainable, I hope
that you bet them to what win the AFC East,
to win the AFC, to make it to the super Bowl.
If it's so easily explainable, like, oh yeah, I mean
they just you know, they had a cake schedule. You

(14:56):
knew they had a cake schedule before the season started,
you know, like you know, as probably going to be
pretty favorable. I hope you bet on them. I hope
that you have made some handsome cash because you could
have raked in some money winning their division, winning the conference.
I just I don't like they've won four games in
back to back seasons. They were four and thirteen in

(15:17):
back to back seasons, and here they are fourteen and
three in the super Bowl, and they've been reduced to
an easy schedule and injury luck. It's crazy, It makes
absolutely no sense. But that's where we're at right now.
We'll have plenty more to get to. We've got Rich Orenberger,
Penn State All American, Jared Smith FSR betting analyst. I'm
Brian no Hey. Football fans, picture this. You bet on

(15:40):
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(16:01):
BETMGM make it legendary. All right, coming up?

Speaker 4 (16:05):
What is this? Yeah?

Speaker 1 (16:07):
What does that have to do with the Super Bowl?

Speaker 4 (16:09):
We'll explain.

Speaker 1 (16:10):
It's Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by BETMGM.

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(17:16):
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Speaker 1 (17:28):
It is Fox Sports Radios. Countdown to kick Off presented
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(17:49):
more Today again, the bonus code is countdown bet MGM,
make it legendary. So I was asking, what does this
have to do with the Super Bowl that could be
applied to Tom Brady here. Okay, So the week that
has been for Tom Brady. He first started off on
the Let's Go podcast with Jim Gray saying that, uh,

(18:10):
you know, he doesn't really have a dog in the fight.
Here's what he said. It got a lot of reaction.

Speaker 7 (18:15):
Listen, I don't have a dog in the fight in
this one. Okay.

Speaker 1 (18:19):
So some ex Patriot players like a Sante, Samuel, Teddy Bruski,
Vince will Fork, They're like, what, don't have a dog
in the fight? Your patriots are in the Super Bowl, Tom,
you don't have a dog in the fight. This was
Vince will Fork on w w e e i's Greg
Hill Show. Very funny stuff. Check out, big Vince.

Speaker 4 (18:39):
This ain't political. Yeah, yeah, it ain't political. What it is? Yeah,
they ain't in it? Thank you, Vince? Right, say what
it is?

Speaker 3 (18:46):
Right?

Speaker 4 (18:46):
What you see? Yep. Man, Look at the end of
the day, if you're a patriot for life, you know
what it is. Don't give me that political bull crap.
Thats just what it is. That's it.

Speaker 10 (18:55):
If you don't think we're gonna win, just pick Seattle,
din Yeah, don't, don't.

Speaker 4 (18:59):
Don't strout of the fence. Yeah, strout of the fix.

Speaker 1 (19:03):
Okay, So Vince's not feeling it. So now we have
the latest. Tom Brady went to IG okay, and Tom
Brady just wrote, you know, I got your back. Robert Kraft,
the owner of the Patriots, he said, get that seventh
ring so we can match. So now he's you know,
full backing the Patriots while shouting himself out.

Speaker 7 (19:24):
You know, it's a.

Speaker 1 (19:27):
You could look at it, you can look into that.
But what do you make of this week?

Speaker 4 (19:31):
Rich?

Speaker 1 (19:31):
Especially you former Patriot Tom Brady, I don't have a
dog in the fight. Just instant negative feedback from his
former teammates, like what is he talking now? He's like,
all right, you know, I'm I'm pulling for the Patriots.
What do you What do you make of this here?

Speaker 6 (19:46):
I think he's doing what he thinks he's supposed to
do given his jobs. He is an owner and a
broadcaster in and for this league.

Speaker 4 (19:58):
I mean, I don't I don't I know, I don't
know if.

Speaker 6 (20:01):
He really can like pledge allegiance to any of the
thirty two franchises, otherwise it'll taint his broadcast. Now, look,
there's a lot of Tom Brady fans, you know, a
lot of people respect Tom Brady and appreciated what he
did for the league over the years. But as you
get further and further away from your playing career and

(20:22):
you become more well known for being an announcer, like
many people who absorb Troy Aikman now, I mean the
majority of people watching football right now may have never
seen Troy Aikman take a snap.

Speaker 4 (20:36):
That's the reality.

Speaker 6 (20:37):
Most people know him as a broadcaster now, and if
Troy Aikman was anything but neutral during a broadcast, especially
when he's calling games of his former team, the Dallas Cowboys,
he would have a problem. People would start being like,
why is he such a homer?

Speaker 4 (20:55):
Oh?

Speaker 6 (20:55):
Oh, he played for Dallas, Like you know, because there's
legitimately some people who wouldn't know who because they just
don't they're uninformed, they're new to the sport, whatever it
may be. So my point being like, he's doing exactly
what he thinks he's supposed to do. Now, of course
this is gonna elicit strong reactions just like anything you say.
And and Tom Brady or Brady as an owner or

(21:17):
a partial owner of the Raiders also has to be
even more careful and even more politically savvy when it
comes to waters like this, because you know, there's treachery ahead.
There's some overlap here that has already been questioned by
other teams and other owners and other coaches. So there's
a lot of different, you know, things that play for

(21:39):
Tom Brady and his new profession being a broadcaster. And
I think he's trying to be as careful as possible
and not step on any of the landmines.

Speaker 4 (21:47):
I admire his attempt at trying to do.

Speaker 6 (21:51):
What everybody else has done for ages and ages when
they step away from their career and into a broadcast booth,
it's just going it's just not going to seem legitimate
when Tom Brady does, because he's regarded Robert Craft as
like a.

Speaker 4 (22:06):
Second father, you know.

Speaker 6 (22:08):
So it's very difficult to imagine in that we live
in a world where Tom Brady's not pulling for the
Patriots as they're taking on the Seattle Seahawks, especially with
Bob Craft still in ownership control of the Patriots.

Speaker 8 (22:24):
Yeah, and correctly if I'm wrong, I don't know this
for sure, but Vince Wolferck has like a big Boston
media job, right, Like he's on the radio.

Speaker 7 (22:30):
I think in Boston, I might be about that.

Speaker 1 (22:33):
I think it's Jermaine Wiggins. He's the guy that yeah.

Speaker 8 (22:37):
Yeah, because I'm just curious, like if that's where these
conversations get a little muddy, is when the guys who
are working in Boston still like and that's and that's
a big and take nothing away from that, Like Rich
is doing it right now. He's doing a fantastic job,
played for the Chargers. Now he's working in San Diego media,
so he's his view of everything is obviously going to

(22:59):
be through this and Diego lents.

Speaker 7 (23:00):
Same thing for Vince Wolf.

Speaker 8 (23:01):
If he is working for Boston media, his view of
everything is going to be through.

Speaker 7 (23:05):
The Boston lens.

Speaker 8 (23:06):
Whereas Tom Brady is at the national level now he
is calling, he's the number one broadcaster for Fox Sports,
you know, the top analyst, and he is an owner
of the team.

Speaker 7 (23:18):
So there is a level of not the Patriots but
the Raiders.

Speaker 8 (23:21):
There's a level of neutrality that comes with that and
I do respect Tom for going down that road.

Speaker 7 (23:27):
That being said, probably could have used a.

Speaker 8 (23:30):
Better word than no dog in the fight, right, I like,
there's a better way to say it where he's like,
you know, I don't want to be too much of
a Patriots homer. I know I have great ties there
and you know, talk about you know, lead with all
of the great things they've done for your career, and
then say, you know, I'm doing this gig for Fox

(23:50):
now and I've got this thing, so I can't really
give you because we see this all the time on
college game day, where you know, Kirk who's calling the
game can't give you a pick, like like, we see
that all the time. People understand, but there's just a
better way. It's not the message, it's the delivery sometimes.
And I think at the end of the day, I.

Speaker 6 (24:08):
Actually respect Tom a lot for how much he's improved
and how much, you know, level of commitment he's.

Speaker 8 (24:15):
Brought to the broadcasting booth. I do listen to these
guys a lot. I think Greg Olson is the best
in the business right now in terms of color commentary,
and there's a huge gap between him and like Tony
Romo when it comes to like adding to the broadcast
during the game, and Tom, you know, started out a
little rougher on the edges. It's not easy to do TV,
not easy to be live on the air and calling

(24:36):
this and being able to react. He has improved dramatically
as a broadcaster over the last year that he's done this,
and he's very committed to this, and I respect the
hell out of that because some of these guys, again
like mister Romo, who started out guns of blazing in
the booth, have fallen off dramatically and now basically are
kind of like a sideshow, you know, alongside nance. So
I think it's an interesting dynamic where Tom's trying to

(24:58):
walk the line Brian, But yeah, probably could.

Speaker 1 (25:00):
Have worded it a little bit better. Yeah, No, I'm
kind of like that where it's funny. It's just while
you're saying that, Jared, it popped into my head the
old Chappelle show skit when keeping it real goes wrong. Yeah,
like Tom was trying to keep it professional. It's like
when keeping it grown up goes wrong. Like, normally, when
you keep it professional, it doesn't go wrong like this,

(25:21):
but it did for Tom Brady where to rich his point,
he's just trying to be a grown up, and they're
probably gonna hire They are gonna hire Clint Kubiak, who
is the Seahawks offensive coordinator. You know, so if Tom's like,
go Patriots, oh yeah, I'd be lying to you if
I said I didn't have a dog in the fight.
I hope the Patriots win and we'll see if they do.
Even if he says that, it could make things a

(25:43):
little awkward a little bit with Clint Kobiak. But I
just go back to whatever Brady says. He's not gonna
make a prediction like Gronk. You know, he's not gonna
like Hulk Hogan his T shirt off and it says
Patriots on his chest, and you know he like Stone
colds a couple of beers, go pads, not gonna be paid.
That's not gonna be Tom Brady now. But if he says, yeah,

(26:05):
I'm pulling for the Patriots, you think Clint Kubiak is
gonna take great exception? You think the NFL is gonna
take great exception? Or Fox like, no one's gonna take
great exception. So I just think he thought too much
about this, and when as politically correct as possible, and
it totally backfired.

Speaker 6 (26:22):
I fully believe what you're saying and what you're saying, Jared,
and I think I think irrationality reigns in fandom and
that's what makes sports so fun. Is it rational to
whip your shirt off in sub zero temperatures and swing
it over your head, screaming from the top of your

(26:44):
lungs when you have strict orders from your doctor that
your blood pressure is a problem.

Speaker 4 (26:49):
No, like, no, that's not rational.

Speaker 6 (26:52):
But still you'll you'll find people in the dog pound
at Brown's games doing it, you know, during a hopeless season.

Speaker 4 (26:58):
Sometimes because they're fans.

Speaker 6 (27:01):
I mean, and look the Patriots, New England, that area
of the country has some of the most avid sports
fans on the planet, the Celtics, the Bruins, the Pats,
I mean, the Socks. When I was living in the
city of Boston playing for the Patriots and commuting down
to Foxborough, I mean, you really feel it when you're
walking around the city because depending on what point of

(27:24):
the year is, there's this intense part of the season,
the football season, where all three sports are really overlapping
each other, all four sports, and you see a different
jersey on everyone's back. You know, you'll see Larry Bird,
You'll see Ah, you'll see Brady, You'll see you know,
big Poppy, you know, and you're everywhere you look. You're like,

(27:46):
oh my gosh, like everybody. Everybody's in Like this is
a sports town. And so when you have that kind
of love and irrational patronage to a tea and the
greatest player who's ever played on any of these teams says,

(28:06):
I don't have a dog in the fight, it's going
to resonate poorly with that crowd. And so I think
I think two things I want. I think one, Brady
probably went a little too polished and professional and political.
And too, I think there's you know, there's always some
money to make and there's always some attention to gain

(28:28):
by shouting down a neutral or a bad opinion. And
we see this all the time in other media too,
but especially in sports. If somebody's going to try to
remain neutral and it's a hot button issue, you know
that you can grab yourself a headline or two just
by jumping on the side of no, that guy's wrong
and let me tell you why. And so I think

(28:51):
some of the reaction to Tom Brady has been overtly
leaning toward the fans of Boston to curry their faith.
It's not necessarily to say tom Brady's this and tom
Brady's that. It's to say, hey, this is my opportunity
to show my allegiance to the Patriots. So if you
guys ever need somebody to pat your back and tell

(29:13):
you you're all right, it's me. You know, former patriot
dot dot dot insert name here. You know, it's like
that kind of feels what this is in a lot
of cases. But let's be honest, Bob krafts like a
second dad. Mike Rabel's a former teammate and somebody who
he respects and probably loves on a certain level because
of all the work they did together and all the

(29:33):
accomplishments they have together. And I know for a fact
that they're still in touch with each other. So he
does have a dog in the fight. He was just
trying to stay out of the fight, and he squared
himself directly in the fight by trying to stay out
of the fight.

Speaker 8 (29:47):
Yeah, I think that's I think that's very well said. Listen,
I respect what he's done because I get the same,
but obviously not on the same level. But I'm a
diehard New York sports fans birth right, born in New
York City Yankees fans. My family grew up going to
Yankees games. My grandfather was best friends with Geene Michael.

(30:08):
They used to go to the horse track together in
Fort Lauderdale when the Yankees had spring training at Lockhart Stadium.
I am a Yankees man through and I bleed pinstripes.

Speaker 4 (30:17):
Well.

Speaker 8 (30:18):
Then my career started in sports media, and I worked
for a local news station in New York City and
I covered the Yankees. It was a dream come true
for this kid. And then they started denying me things
when I wanted to interview this person and I wanted
to do this, and they got mad at me because
I stepped onto the field at the wrong time. And
I got it and.

Speaker 7 (30:36):
I started to see how the sausage was made.

Speaker 8 (30:37):
And now all of a sudden, I'm, you know, almost
forty years old, not really as big as a Yankees
fan anymore.

Speaker 6 (30:42):
You know, I've kind of become more of a professional,
neutral observer of sports, so I can do this job.

Speaker 8 (30:47):
Best for you fine folk every week. That's just the
way that the world works. Like you grow up, you
you you evolve and all of a sudden, your interests
and your fandoms change. And I think Tom is eve
all like he's not mister Patriot anymore. He first of all,
he want Super Bowl with another team. Second of all,
as we've said, he is an owner of a franchise

(31:09):
that is not New England or Tampa.

Speaker 7 (31:11):
And third he is a broadcaster at the.

Speaker 6 (31:14):
Highest possible level trying to give you neutral analysis for
all thirty two teams.

Speaker 8 (31:22):
So that's where this was coming from. And then the
Boston crowd gave gave their opinion, and I'll be honest,
I don't know if you think this way, Brian.

Speaker 4 (31:32):
I respect Tom a little less for caving.

Speaker 8 (31:35):
I would have respected it more if he just would
have said, listen, guys, this is the way it is.
I don't play for the Patriots anymore. I wish nothing
but the best for those guys, but I'm not really
involved with the team in any way.

Speaker 1 (31:46):
Yeah, I guess that was the bad thing. He caved also,
so he's like, Okay, I took the L initially and
now all cave. So maybe it's a double L. I
don't know, depends, double L. It might be a double
L about NFL Honors. So all the awards were announced
on Thursday night, and Matthew Stafford took home League MVP

(32:09):
slimmest of margins.

Speaker 4 (32:10):
Huh.

Speaker 1 (32:11):
Matthew Stafford had twenty four first place votes. Drake May
had twenty three first place votes. Stafford only won the
award by five points total. And what caught a lot
of attention was one of the voters, Sam Monson.

Speaker 7 (32:25):
Good dude.

Speaker 1 (32:25):
I used to interview him when I worked in Portland.
Very nice dude. But he voted for Justin Herbert to
be League MVP. That was his first place vote. He
went with Herbert, and his reasoning like he said, well,
Herbert's offensive line was you know, I'm paraphrasing, but he
was talking about the offensive line being incredibly banged up.
And you know, Herbert was doing this with a rough

(32:47):
offensive line all season long. And he went with him
with his first place vote, which is I think beyond
outside the box. You know, did not like on top
of the five fives. He was like, yeah, I'm gonna
go with the writing candidate with Justin Herbert. Here it's
like as the first place sky like maybe fourth or

(33:08):
fifth maybe, but first it's pretty wild to me, the
seasons that Stafford had Drake May had, I just don't
see how you could say Herbert's season was better. But
now that's what the conversation has become. So I guess
the two part question, what do you think of Stafford
winning this very close race with Drake May? And what
do you think about, Oh, by the way, voterhead Herbert

(33:30):
winning this thing.

Speaker 6 (33:32):
I love the chaos that it creates because I really
do appreciate the fact that it shines light on the
ridiculousness of this conversation. In the first place, most valuable Player.
There's no statistical achievement that can tell us who that is.
There's no objective statement that can define value perfectly.

Speaker 4 (33:55):
In the NFL.

Speaker 6 (33:57):
There is no argument that can fully support one side
against the other, or one player against the rest. So
when we're talking about a subjective award, I appreciate and
support somebody writing in justin Herbert, because I really think
that if you are going to parse the details and
you are going to subjectively look at it through the

(34:19):
lens of which player lends the most value to their team,
and when you compare that value they lend to their
team against the backdrop of the entirety of the NFL
and every player and how much value they bring to
their own franchise. Yeah, I could see the logic that
got that person to voting for Justin Herbert. And that's

(34:42):
why this the reason why awards like these are so
flawed and so ridiculous when argument gets to shouting matches
like it should never be this is your opinion against
this person's opinion. Now, you can be really off base
with an opinion, there's no question about it. And there's
some really bad opinions that float out there around a

(35:03):
lot of different subjects, and those should be discounted and
in certain ways discredited. But I mean, the reality is this,
whether it's may or it's Stafford this season, you're splitting
hairs because you can absolutely make the argument for most
Valuable for both of these players for a multitude of

(35:25):
different reasons.

Speaker 4 (35:26):
So yeah, I mean, you know what's.

Speaker 6 (35:29):
So funny is like, I'll borrow a line from my
former teammate, former quarterback Tom Brady.

Speaker 4 (35:33):
I don't got a dog in.

Speaker 6 (35:34):
This fight, because my opinions just as valid as yours,
just as valid as any fan of the game who's
looking at this reasonably.

Speaker 4 (35:42):
Because either one.

Speaker 6 (35:43):
Of these two players were great candidates, and either one
of them could have won this award realistically. The only
thing I'll say on this I respect Sam's transparency, I
respect his process.

Speaker 7 (35:55):
I disagree with his result.

Speaker 8 (35:57):
I think that's it, like when you come out and
say and he got ahead of it.

Speaker 7 (36:00):
Like sometimes they're very skittish.

Speaker 8 (36:02):
For example, last year when it was revealed that Kay
Adams had a vote in the MVP when she's working
for a major sports book, I think is insane.

Speaker 7 (36:11):
I'm glad that she didn't have a vote this year.

Speaker 8 (36:13):
Nothing against her opinion, but it's like that conflict of
interest that bothers me. But Sam doesn't have that conflict
of interests unless he was better Herbert than the orders,
and probably wasn't.

Speaker 6 (36:21):
But I respect his process, I respect his transparency, disagree
with the result.

Speaker 8 (36:26):
Stafford I believe was the worthy winner, but not by much.
I think it was close. It was rightfully close.

Speaker 1 (36:32):
The stat that's mind blowing real fast was Stafford. He
set an NFL record most touchdown passes ever thrown against
teams that wanted least eleven games. Yeah, like, he threw
twenty touchdown passes against eleven win teams like that's the
most an NFL history, Drake May. He didn't play a
whole lot of eleven win teams. He didn't throw a

(36:52):
single touchdown pass against the team that won that many games.
That's like, whoa. You can't deny Stafford when it's you
know you're thriving against great competition like that. In my
opinion that I agree with that swung it for me.
But Drake May had a brilliant season as well. It
just he didn't play the same competition. Not his fault,

(37:12):
but you have to factor that in. Yeah, time will
calm Brian, Yes, I think so.

Speaker 4 (37:16):
I think so.

Speaker 1 (37:16):
All right, we've got rich oron Berger, Penn State, All American,
Jared Smith, FSR betting analyst. I'm Brian No. Be sure
to check out the new looking features in the betmgm app.
It's fast and easy access to the sports you love.
It's the fastest betmgm app ever, it's a more personalized
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(37:39):
bonus bets with bonus code countdown if they don't win
their first bet. That's code countdown in the BETMGM app.
All right, coming up next to parlay platter, which have
one selection for you. We pull it together for a
greater payout, and we have a bonus little nugget for
you as we get into that, we'll share that with
the next It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff,

(37:59):
presented by betem GM. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
to Kickoff presented by bet MGM. Have you ever wiped
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(38:19):
retailers nationwide. Dude wipes best clean pants down. All right,
let's do this.

Speaker 3 (38:27):
Check this out parlay letter.

Speaker 7 (38:30):
Ah.

Speaker 1 (38:30):
Yes, the platter which have one selection for you. We
pull it together for a greater payout, and we have
good news. Our parlay from last week is still alive. Yes,
Rich and I hit our basketball bets somehow. The Sixers
covered nine and a half against the Pels. They will
tie game with like four minutes to go. They won
by ten and Rich, very good call with your astacs

(38:52):
plus six and a half against Utah State. They covered.
So it's down to you had a Super Bowl bet, Jared,
you have Treyvon Henderson sixteen and a half rushing yards
that hits. We win our parlay from last week, and
we're gonna try to win our parlay this week. What
do you have for us chart?

Speaker 7 (39:06):
Yeah, we're gonna do a little le a little fun today.

Speaker 6 (39:08):
Right, it's our last ballplatter of the season, and I
want to make sure we all go on the record
to think to state what we think is gonna happen in.

Speaker 7 (39:17):
The Super Bowl. So we'll give you a money line
for the game, right.

Speaker 8 (39:20):
Pretty easy, Seahawks win, Patriots win, obviously the odds are different.

Speaker 6 (39:23):
And then we'll give you a total for the game.
You want to go first quarter, first half total, that's fine.
I'm gonna go full game total. I'll keep it very simple.
We think this game is going to be tighter than expected,
which means I am on the dog side of the market.
So I'm not saying I think New England is going
to win.

Speaker 8 (39:38):
But if I had to bet the money line in
this game, I would take the Patriots, and.

Speaker 7 (39:42):
I think it's gonna be a low scoring game.

Speaker 6 (39:44):
So New England money line under forty five and a
half plus three.

Speaker 7 (39:48):
Eighty on those SGP odds over at that, MGM. What
do you got guys?

Speaker 6 (39:52):
Okay, yeah, I hate taking the Seattle Seahawks on the
money line alone, but when you pair with the under,
it's a taste your lick and and that's that's why
I love these same game of parlays that you can
get on Thatt MGM.

Speaker 4 (40:06):
Right, So, I like the Seahawks win this game.

Speaker 6 (40:09):
I think this is going to be a low scoring
game regardless of who wins. So let's rock and roll.
Is that plus one eighty at five parlay those together.

Speaker 8 (40:18):
Eighty Seahawks money line and under? All right, Brian, probably
you know one of us is on Seattle, one of
us is on New England.

Speaker 7 (40:24):
It would be the designer here.

Speaker 1 (40:25):
Yeah, I'm going with the Patriots over here. I'm on
the I'm on the Smith's side of defense.

Speaker 7 (40:31):
Oh wow, I.

Speaker 1 (40:35):
Say the best for last. You know, it's the last
week of the season. I had to I had to
be on the same side at one stage here. But yeah,
I love under forty five and a half. These are
two very good defenses. And really, when you look at
them outside of JSN, who are like the upper echelon playmakers,
Like who are they?

Speaker 4 (40:56):
Like?

Speaker 1 (40:56):
Where are the points?

Speaker 7 (40:57):
Mac Collins? I don't know.

Speaker 1 (40:58):
Yeah, body, I just don't see this being a high
scoring game? Isaya being very low scoring? And Yeah, I
like the Patriots. I think they're being slept on. I
think they're much better than they're given credit for. And
I do I think the two weeks of Seattle, Seattle, Seattle, Oh,
they're gonna blow them out. Like, I think that matters
for the game. So yeah, I'll go money line Patriots here.

(41:18):
I think they're gonna win seventeen thirteen.

Speaker 7 (41:20):
I like it. Yeah.

Speaker 6 (41:21):
So if you want to take Patriots and under, it's
plus three eighty. If you want to go Seahawks and under,
it's plus one eighty.

Speaker 4 (41:26):
There you go.

Speaker 1 (41:28):
None of us took over about that, all right? Coming
up next? Will this be the most important factor in
determining who wins the game?

Speaker 11 (41:36):
Oh?

Speaker 1 (41:36):
Welcome in, Happy Saturday to you, Happy super Bowl. Eve,
Fired up to be here with you, guys. Hope you're
a day is off to a great start, but we'll get
to Is this going to be the most important factor
in determining who wins Super Bowl sixty? We'll get to
that momentarily. Be sure to subscribe to the Fox Sports
Radio YouTube channel. Just search Fox Sports Radio on YouTube

(41:59):
and you'll see our best videos from all of our shows.
And don't stop there. Hit that thumbs up icon and
comment away. Let us know whose takes you like and
even whose takes you don't like. Just search Fox Sports
Radio on YouTube and subscribe. Quarterbacks performing under pressure? Is
that gonna be the most important factor in determining who
wins the Super Bowl tomorrow? Because think of this. I

(42:22):
saw a couple of stats and I'm like, whoa, it's
gonna be a big deal. So the Seahawks, they had
one hundred and ten quarterback hits this season, that's third
most in the league. And then you look at Drake
May in the playoffs. He's been sacked fifteen times in
three games, five times against the Chargers, five times against
the Texans, five times against the Broncos. Very consistent those

(42:44):
Patriots right there. And then you look at the flip side,
Sam Donald. He led the league in turnovers. Okay, Like
when you see this stat where it's like Sam Donald
recorded the most turnovers in the twenty twenty five regular
season with twenty. He was followed by A Geno Smith
and everybody else in the entire National Football League. Darnold

(43:05):
had the most turnovers. He also makes sense was number
one in turnover worthy plays when pressured. So what do
you think the Patriot's gonna do. They're gonna pressure him,
They're gonna blitz him, They're gonna force him to perform
under pressure. And then you look at that the same
lens with Drake May and the Patriots. They're gonna heat

(43:26):
him up. Also, third most quarterback hits from the Seahawks
this season. So do you think the quarterbacks performing under
pressure like literal pressure pass rush, do you think that's
gonna be the most important factor in determining who wins
and loses rich who.

Speaker 6 (43:43):
I'm gonna say no, only because throughout the week I
have said, whoever dominates the or really wins the ground game.
I don't know if you have to dominate, but if
you win the ground game, I think you win this game.
And it's predicated around some of what you just pointed out,
because I do think both of these defenses are so fierce,

(44:05):
especially against passers, and both of these passers are talented,
there's no doubt, one of which was in the MVP conversation.
The other has been a complete reclamation project over the
past two seasons with the Vikings and now with the
Seattle Seahawks, playing for two different offensive systems in Sam Donald,
and he's done a masterful job of turning his career

(44:28):
around and he's become ultimately one of the better passers
in the league. And I support what you said last week, Brian,
and what's been talked about. If Sam Donald wins the
Super Bowl, all of a sudden, he's gonna enter a
different realm of the conversation in quarterback play in this league.
Having said all that, I really do think it's this.

(44:49):
Both of these teams are going to rely on their
running backs, and out of New England it's a little
more by committee. With Seattle, obviously they have got more
of a bell cow. But if they win, or I
should say, if Seattle wins upfront, if New England wins
upfront and they can establish the run and keep the
ball moving on the ground throughout the course of the game,

(45:11):
I think that's really gonna be the determining factor.

Speaker 8 (45:14):
Yeah, it's funny because I went back and looked at
Donald's pressure numbers. I would did a deep dive Donald's stories, honestly,
and we take a second to recognize how crazy the
story was. I mean, in twenty thirteen, the backup quarterback
for the San Francisco forty nine ers Week eighteen of
that season, January of twenty twenty four, essentially two years ago,

(45:36):
he was playing in a meaningless Week eighteen game. Niners
had already wrapped up their playoff spot. They're facing the Rams,
they had already wrapped up their playoff spot. It was
Sam Donald against Carson Wentz, backup against backup Niners.

Speaker 7 (45:47):
Rams. Rams won that game.

Speaker 8 (45:49):
Donald's walking off the field in Santa Clara at Levi
Stadium in January of twenty twenty four, and people are
probably like, that's it. You're done, Sam, You're not playing
in this league again. You're not gonna be starter in
this league again. And how about that two years later,
almost to the day, playing on that field again in
the Super Bowl. It's a remarkable story. Obviously Minnesota to Seattle.

(46:12):
But you go back and look at the pressure numbers,
Donald's numbers under pressure right. Pro Football Focus does a
great job. You want to argue what constitutes pressure, I'm
not going to get into that debate, but they do
a good job giving you when clean and when under pressure.
So over the last two seasons, Sam Darnold forty two
big time throws under pressure, significantly more than his first

(46:37):
five years.

Speaker 7 (46:37):
In the league.

Speaker 8 (46:38):
Sixty nine percent adjusted accuracy rate under pressure this season
career high.

Speaker 6 (46:45):
So I'm not saying he's perfect. He certainly has those
happy feet at times, and he can get flustered.

Speaker 8 (46:52):
We've seen it many times. Seattle and New England actually,
ironically enough, two of the most wins in the league
when their team has multi turnovers. That's not a surprise.
Both teams won the most games. There's some context there,
but my point being Brian Sam has improved in this category.
So it's not a perfect scenario. You don't want to

(47:12):
be under pressure. But I think if I had to
pick between the two, I think Sam's got more experience
and has shown a lot of improvement throughout the course
of his career when facing pressure.

Speaker 1 (47:23):
This is gonna sound like a hater question, but let
me expand. Have we fallen too much in love with
Darnald's story as it pertains to the game tomorrow, right Like,
and here's the thing, I don't think it's just black
and white. I think it's gray. I think it's somewhere
in between. We have like two extremes where it's like

(47:44):
the life and times of Darnald right now and like
throwing bouquets at his feet because he just carved.

Speaker 4 (47:48):
Up the Rams.

Speaker 1 (47:49):
He was sensational against the Rams last time we saw
the Seahawks play, and you got to give him credit
for the season. He's played very, very well, so the
praise makes sense. The other side of it is, you know,
you've got people that are just still completely skeptical because
we were clowning him one year ago. I can't get
that on my head. One year ago he was wetting

(48:11):
himself in the two biggest games of the year when
he's with the Vikings, right Like, he stunk it up
against the Lions in Week eighteen, and he was even
worse in the playoff loss to the Rams, got sacked
nine times. So one year ago. So that's where I'm
at is you gotta give Darnold a lot of credit
for this season, especially the performance against the Rams. He
was sensational and we didn't know how he was gonna

(48:33):
perform with the Oblique. It is like, h Oblique looks fine.
He looks more than fine, So you got to give
him credit. But has it gone too far? To Jared's point,
the story is amazing where he gets drafted by the Jets.
Third overall, I'm seeing ghosts. You know, it's a calamity.
It's going as badly as it can. They kick him
to the curb, you know, it takes him a while

(48:55):
to resurface. He resurfaces with the Panthers, has no surrounding talent,
fizzles there. He ends up with the Niners as a backup,
like Jared pointed out. Then he gets to the Vikings
plays well they're like, yeah, yeah, we don't want you, I.

Speaker 7 (49:10):
Want J McCarthy instead.

Speaker 1 (49:12):
Yeah with JJ McCarthy, who you saw how it worked
out in his first year, starting this last year brutal,
and now here Sam is in the super Bowl. It's
an amazing story, but have we fallen a little bit
too much in love with it where we're making Darnald
out to be like a top five quarterback right now,
and it's like he's going up against the really good defense.

(49:35):
I don't know that we want to just act like, oh, Seahawks, Yeah,
just name the score man, They're gonna win for sure.
We don't know how donald fourth quarter game, key third
down conversion. He's pressured most turnovers in the league this season.
It is just the furthest thing from a layup for
Sam coming through tomorrow. I just think the praise has

(49:57):
gone a little bit too far, and I hate Sam
saying that because he does deserve a lot of praise.
I just think some of it in these two weeks
it's just like, are we talking about the same guy here?
It's like, Wow, we're laying it on thick.

Speaker 4 (50:09):
Yeah.

Speaker 6 (50:10):
I really do agree with that, and it's always been
with tepid optimism through that lens that I have watched
Sam Darnold perform over the past two seasons. I was
really excited about the MVP chatter around his name during
the regular season with the Vikings.

Speaker 4 (50:29):
Because I was like, WHOA, what a story.

Speaker 6 (50:32):
This guy's been scrap heaped and he's been completely revived
by Kyle Shanahan and Kevin O'Connell because he spent a
year with the Niners, as a backup, and it felt
like he learned a lot even though he was understudy.
And then when he got an opportunity to start for
the injury JJ McCarthy with Kevin O'Connell at the helm
of that offense, he really put it all together.

Speaker 4 (50:53):
And I love the story, but always with.

Speaker 6 (50:55):
Tepid optimism, meaning that I was never going to be
at a fever pitch or rock get hot on Sam
Donald that he's figured this league out because it's really
hard to change your stripes, it really is. It takes
a lot of time to truly get away from maybe
some of the things that deterred success earlier in your career.

Speaker 4 (51:13):
Can you learn a lot in this league? Yeah?

Speaker 6 (51:15):
But is there usually a ceiling especially where you start. Yeah,
that's also true. And I mean, look, we can point
to the exceptions to the rule. I think Josh Allen
had a really rough start to his career and he
figured this league out, and it really feels like the
ceiling is limitless at this point because he keeps getting
better and better and better. You know, there are certain

(51:36):
players who can be used as the exception to prove
the rule. Is Sam Donald that I'm gonna need to
see more. And I know that seems unfair because this
is a guy who's helped now two teams into the
playoffs in consecutive years and is about to play in
his first Super Bowl as a starter. But sports aren't fair.
You've got to prove a lot for people to start

(51:57):
believing in you. And that's how this game works, especially football,
because so much hinges around the play of one position
on the field.

Speaker 4 (52:07):
That's why these guys get paid the way they do.

Speaker 6 (52:09):
That's that's why you know after your career, you know,
if you're starting quarterback and you have success, I mean
it's like, name which auto insurance brand you want to
be paid by?

Speaker 4 (52:21):
You know, name like you.

Speaker 6 (52:23):
Name the commercial whatever, rent a car company you want
to be paid by. Yeah, I mean you're going to
be remembered forever because it's hard.

Speaker 4 (52:32):
It's hard.

Speaker 6 (52:33):
And is Sam Darnold capable of accomplishing hard things and
having success?

Speaker 4 (52:37):
Of course he is. Am I one hundred percent sold? Yet? No?

Speaker 6 (52:42):
And I'll be perfectly frank if you ask Sam Donald,
are you one hundred percent sold that you are one
of the elite quarterbacks in the league? And he was
being perfectly honest with himself and everybody else.

Speaker 4 (52:54):
He would say, no, I'm not.

Speaker 6 (52:56):
I think I still have things to prove to myself
and this is a big moments. So yeah, I mean
you're talking about actual, real pressure that's gonna be supplied
by a Patriots defense that's gonna try to fool them,
or they've got some guys, especially in that inside defensive line,
that can really They've got a high win rate against
pass blocking like that. That's real pressure. But then you

(53:18):
talk about the the sort of the pressure in the
figurative sense, like the fact that between his ears he's
gonna have to handle the bright lights of the Super
Bowl and perform. That's also pressure, and so that is
a huge determining factor as well.

Speaker 8 (53:35):
Yeah, I think the Darnald narrative is interesting, but not
important for the outcome of the game. I think there's
a lot of stories. Right, it's a long two weeks
before the game, right after the Championship Sunday games are
in the books and we have to kind of reload,
and there's a lot to talk about, and so every
narrative is gonna get dissected by every possible angle. I

(53:56):
think the Darnald narrative of his time in New York,
than Carolina, than San fran than Minnesota before Seattle is
very interesting, but not relevant to the actual outcome of
the game. The actual outcome of the game will be
determined by just like every other NFL game is determined
by who turns it over more, who creates more mistakes
and you know, you know, forces the other team to

(54:17):
commit errors.

Speaker 7 (54:18):
And who scores more points.

Speaker 8 (54:19):
So that to me is the only thing that matters
for the actual outcome of the game. But make no
mistake Sam Darnoald, who by the way, is twenty eight
years old. For those listeners out there who are thinking
to themselves, you know, if you're in my age bracket
about turn forty, you're in the forties fifties, think about
where you were at age twenty eight, and how much
knowledge you had of the world and how much learning

(54:42):
you had to do still, and what Sam's been able
to accomplish by age twenty. I know, the football life
span is obviously a little bit different than the human
life span, but he's still just twenty eight years old.
He is still a young man even in football terms.
He has not hit that age thirty threshold yet, So
I think there is still a lot of learning and
a lot of upside for Sam to do. I'll leave

(55:04):
you with this one nugget, and it's how we started
the conversation. It's turnovers. Sam Donald had twenty giveaways during
the regular season, most in the NFL, as Brian alluded
to first quarterback since Eli Manning in two thousand and
seven to make the Super Bowl in the same season

(55:24):
he had the most giveaways in the NFL. I'm don't
need to read all of you on who won that supermower.

Speaker 7 (55:35):
You all know who won it.

Speaker 1 (55:36):
Yeah, something about being an undefeated team, you know something
something there about that. Yeah, it's listen, man, I love
Jared that you pointed out that he's twenty eight years old,
because Sam Donald, I don't know if it's he feels
like he's thirty six in football years.

Speaker 7 (55:50):
Playing for the Jets will do that to you.

Speaker 1 (55:52):
Yeah, because he's so well traveled, he has played for
multiple teams. It just seems like he's been around for
way longer than that. Think about how much football he
has left. He got a lot of years left. If
he's found a home here in Seattle, I mean, he
could be he could be a good quarterback. For a
while now. That's I feel like this is a obviously

(56:14):
a monstrous hurdle in front of him. If he passes
this test tomorrow and wins a ring man, the future
is bright. If he stinks it up and loses it,
like all this goodwill and wow, what a story one
Like sharp left, I knew this guy. You know, it's
not gonna take much for people to revert back. It's

(56:34):
just kind of crazy. It's changed so much, you know. Yeah,
it didn't take a ton for the narrative to completely
change on Darnold. That's rare. Normally, it takes a ton
for people to really change their thinking about you. And really,
it took a good regular season, a stud performance against
the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and it's like

(56:55):
people have amnesia where it's like, oh, last year stinking
it up and the two big games. Oh yeah, I
kind of recall that normally doesn't happen the way it
has for Donald, and that's good. I'm fine with it.
It's just, man, when someone has a reputation for shrinking
in the big moments, it normally takes five great years

(57:18):
for them to start thinking like, maybe this guy is
starting to maybe turn the corner. It was one year
for Donald and people are like, absolved this guy. Wow,
what a season. It's yeah, it's it's been a real
quick turnaround for the guy.

Speaker 6 (57:31):
I love it for him because he is and and
from everybody who I've spoken to knows him on a
personal level, a good guy, you know. And so you
root for the good guys you want. You want people
who treat people right to have success and be and
and and get to places where where they want to
get to and and so I'm rooting for Sam in

(57:52):
no way, shape or form. I think when you hear
criticism of Sam Donald from a football standpoint, should you
say like, yeah, I mean, who are these clowns?

Speaker 5 (58:01):
You know?

Speaker 6 (58:02):
I mean, this is a guy who's trying his ass
off and he's doing great things, and you know, how
dare they?

Speaker 4 (58:07):
It's like, no, everybody is. When I promise you, everybody.

Speaker 6 (58:10):
In an NFL locker room is trying their ass off,
I promise you, from top to bottom, all fifty three players,
and if you're not, they find somebody who will.

Speaker 4 (58:19):
It's it's hard.

Speaker 6 (58:21):
It's a really tough sport, and even to crack a
starting lineup is difficult. And then to have some modicum
of success when you're there doing it.

Speaker 4 (58:29):
It's hard.

Speaker 6 (58:30):
Everybody's getting paid, everybody's great, everybody's well coached. So when
you are literally trying to get an infinitesimal advantage over
your opponent or eke yourself a little bit better each
and every year to get to the point where Sam
Darnold's gotten tude to a platitude where not only do

(58:50):
people believe in him now, but he has had some
recent success to back it up. It's not discrediting all
that hard work to get to where he is by
saying I'm not completely sold. It's just saying, hey, we
need to see at least one more game for us
to be like Sam donald believers. And I don't think
there's anything wrong with that, right.

Speaker 4 (59:12):
Yeah.

Speaker 8 (59:12):
We live in like this sensationalized culture where you're either
the best or the worst and there's no in between
like that. It's just there's very little gray area in
today's sporting culture where we can allow Sam to kind
of exist in this. Hey, you started your career in
purgatory essentially the Jets, and then you go to Carolina,

(59:34):
which is maybe like a step above for I don't remember.

Speaker 6 (59:36):
Thought there's infernal, there's like somebody, I think there's twelve
circles of hell.

Speaker 8 (59:40):
I think Charlotte and the Metal Hands are two of them.
And then you come out of purgatory. And it's only
been right. We've said this. I just said this on
a previous segment. It's only been two years almost to the.

Speaker 6 (59:52):
Day that he was walking off the field as a
backup quarterback under Kyle Shanahan and brought it purty. And
you're just like, this guy's career is over, and two
years later he is about on the cost of winning
the Super Bowl. So give him a little bit of grace,
allow him to grow, and maybe he'll prove you wrong
like he did in the Rams game.

Speaker 1 (01:00:12):
That's the one thing I would say, on the very
positive side, a lot of quarterbacks would have cracked, you know,
and then the path of Donald, Sam's path would have
broken a lot of quarterbacks. And he's still here. I'm
still standing. I'm still strong, and that's Sam Donald right
there right like, so I love that he didn't break.

(01:00:33):
But I think it's fair what Rich has said, I
gotta see more to be truly sold. I think that's fair. Also,
so a great path and we'll see what he does tomorrow.
We've got rich Oinberger, Penn State All American, Jared Smith
FSR betting analyst. I'm Brian no Hey. Football fans, picture this.
You bet on your favorite player in the Big Game
to score the first touchdown, but his teammate scores instead.

(01:00:54):
But with bet MGM's second Chance promotion, you'll get your
stake back if your first touchdown scorer score second instead.
That's right, bet on any pro football player to score
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you win. If your players score second, you get your
stake back in cash. BETMGM make it legendary. Coming up next,
our main man, Seamus McGee from BETMGM gets it all

(01:01:17):
set for Super Bowl sixty facts, figures, predictions, It probably
you know is special. Will probably be from the MIAK
in college hoops today, but we'll get some some NFL.

Speaker 7 (01:01:27):
Predictions from as well.

Speaker 1 (01:01:28):
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(01:01:51):
should be. And it it's time for the tire Rack
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open steps left, going down.

Speaker 4 (01:01:59):
To oh goody, I want the recurtin that war ninety eight.

Speaker 1 (01:02:05):
Ninety six Boston botch it. There you go, the Celtics
get it done, twenty two point comeback compliments of ninety
eight to five the Sports Hub Celtics Radio network as
they beat the Miami Heat. How about that? All right,
let's dive into this.

Speaker 3 (01:02:22):
Follow the money, real good money.

Speaker 1 (01:02:24):
All right, we welcome in our good friend, Seamus McGhee,
team lead of Sports Trading at BEDMGM. Good morning to you, Seamus.
You know, before we get into the hard hitting questions,
in depth analysis, facts and figures, all that good stuff,
I want to be goofy super Bowl, Like, what does
the setup look like for you? Is it business? Is
it business casual? What are you gonna be eating? What

(01:02:46):
are you gonna be doing tomorrow during the Super Bowl shamous?

Speaker 5 (01:02:50):
Hey guys, well it's still pretty up in the air
right now. But I think at this moment, I'm going
to be staying in with my girlfriend, who will be
cooking a nice little feast for us for the Super Bowl,
and it should be lovely nice.

Speaker 1 (01:03:04):
Any details and anything like checks, mix, what's must have?
What do we got going on here tomorrow?

Speaker 5 (01:03:11):
I leave the food to her. She is a great book.
She knows how to prepare all this for us, So
I haven't asked any questions.

Speaker 4 (01:03:18):
He's a smart man. That's a guy.

Speaker 6 (01:03:20):
That's a guy who knows to stay out of the
way when somebody knows what they're doing.

Speaker 4 (01:03:24):
Let her cook.

Speaker 7 (01:03:27):
Literally, I mean, I posted this hot take the other day.

Speaker 8 (01:03:30):
I said, super Bowl parties, like I'm not talking about
like a small gathering and a few close friends. I'm
talking about like, you know, you go to a big
party and there's one hundred people there, fifty people there,
wildly overrated, can't watch the game. So I'm glad that
you're taking the smart approach a small, you know, cozy
atmosphere where you can actually pay attention to the ball,
which is the.

Speaker 7 (01:03:48):
Most important thing.

Speaker 8 (01:03:49):
All right, jam Is, I'm gonna give you this, give
you this outcome and you tell me if it's a
good result for the sports book. I think your answer
is going to be yes, Seahawks win, Patriots cover, game
stays under. To me, that's best case scenario for the book.

Speaker 7 (01:04:07):
What say you?

Speaker 5 (01:04:09):
I mean, it's still really hard to tell what it's
going to end up being. Our need Here we went
with low vig on the on the spread on the
super Bowl, which has taken a lot more Patriots spread action.
It really has, you know, taken some heat off of
anything we've taken on the Seahawks minus four and a half.

(01:04:29):
We'll see what actually we get the next the next
forty eight hours to see with the low Vig. But
the in terms of the money line, we're in a
pretty decent spot with the money line. There's a lot
of things got to consider with you know, who's going
to win the game, because not only the futures, you
have parlays for the last leg is either in the

(01:04:50):
Patriots or the Seahawks or the super Bowl, and then
you have the game threat. So it's it's kind of
a little finicky to figure out. But right now the
game money line isn't that crazy.

Speaker 7 (01:05:01):
Right now.

Speaker 5 (01:05:02):
The spread right now going well vig we've actually taken
a lot more pass money to kind of wash out
a lot of the Seahawks liability. I'm not saying we're
in a flush spot here because I'm expecting a few
massive wagers to come over the counter in Vegas for
the shop here. So we'll see what happens now. But

(01:05:22):
now that we've gone to you know, a two percent
viig on the on the Super Bowl spread, it has
been a lot more pass money coming in.

Speaker 4 (01:05:32):
Interesting.

Speaker 6 (01:05:32):
Okay, you know what what is the most line movement
you could possibly predict happening, you know, realistically one way
or the other. What would you say is the most
in the And also I guess the most likely line movement, Seamus.

Speaker 5 (01:05:50):
I don't see this line moving anywhere spread or total. Honestly,
if I had to pick one that's the most likely too,
I'd say maybe this line moves down to four at
the most three and a half, but I just really
don't see it. If it does, I think you would
move towards the Patriots stuff.

Speaker 1 (01:06:12):
You know, seame As we know your thoughts on you know,
like the Horizon League or the Premier League or you know,
stuff like that. We get your shame as specials all
the time. I want to hone in on super Bowl sixty.
You're a man of conviction, You're a man of strong opinions.
What are your strongest opinions about how Super Bowl sixty
might play out?

Speaker 5 (01:06:32):
You know there's one bet I like, and you know
this is this is stuff I don't just give to
anyone here. You know, my my Premier League picks, by
my college soup sticks. You know anyone can get those,
but this one, you know, this is this is a
good one here. So my favorite bet right now is
mac Hollins over two and a half receptions.

Speaker 3 (01:06:54):
Wow, okay, usually.

Speaker 5 (01:06:57):
Having around plus one thirty is right now.

Speaker 3 (01:07:02):
I like that bet.

Speaker 5 (01:07:03):
I think that's my favorite player prop bet. And you
know I am a sucker for someone like the the
you know, the the game props like will there be
yes on the two point conversion?

Speaker 11 (01:07:14):
I love those.

Speaker 5 (01:07:14):
It's a really square one that I love to be
involved in. Every year, I bet there to be a
touchback punt. I think every year in the Super Bowl,
I think I'm over my last two, which I can't
believe it, Like, yeah, have you seen how a football
is sheet? I just bounce into the end zone every year,
but I don't know I'll be back on it this year,

(01:07:35):
I can tell you that much. But Matt Collins over
two and a half receptions. That's legitimately my favorite prop
on the board right now.

Speaker 8 (01:07:44):
We're always in alignment, Shamus, because I do two videos
for BETMGM every week for Fox right, I think get
posted on the Fox Sports radio, Twitter and Instagram pages.
And my bet this week on the Patriots side was
Mac Collins over receiving yards, which obviously is an alignment
with where you're at. It's a twenty twenty five yards.
I mean, it's just a super low number. I mean,

(01:08:05):
he's a guy that's been very effective, and I love you.
I love your handle there and your your angle overall.
Have you noticed more prop bets than usual this year?
More handle than usual this year? It seems like every
year we keep raising the bar with the amount of
money that is wagered on the Super Bowl. I expect
it to be another record this year. Have you noticed

(01:08:25):
any increase in any certain area or is it just
kind of, you know, a status quo for a Super Bowl.

Speaker 5 (01:08:32):
Everyone's a little later to the party this year. It
feels like last year people couldn't wait to be betting
the Chiefs versus the Eagles this year. You started off
a little slow, but we were ramping up. Now, you know,
we're back to levels we were seeing this far out
for Super Bowl in terms of betting on everything. So
I think it is going to be a record setting
super Bowl for us. I think we finally got there

(01:08:53):
in terms of handled this week to a place where
it looks like we're going to be able to you know,
get up there. But yeah, it's in terms of props
as well. This is definitely the most we've offered as
a sports book, and it's definitely the most actual we're
seeing on a lot of these props. There's a lot
of these, A lot of hard work goes into these
props where you know, you price these up and a

(01:09:15):
lot of years you're not gonna write a settle bet
on a lot of these. But it feels like we're
starting to see people, you know, get hip to the
amount of action that you could have on the Super
Bowl and we're starting to see more actions on a
lot more of these niche props.

Speaker 6 (01:09:30):
Is is slow action leading up to a Super Bowl
typically a corollary to more action on in game bets.
Especially with the proliferation of all these apps. You know,
it's so easy to place an in game bet now,
is that something you guys are assuming will happen? And
then I guess maybe this is a question for you

(01:09:51):
or Jared to answer. When when there is a lot
of in game betting happening, is that a more advantageous
time to place a wager.

Speaker 5 (01:10:01):
I think context matter is a lot like last year,
you had an awesome Super Bowl matchup with Mahomes going
against the Eagles, that you had a rematch this year
felt like a little less buzz around the two teams.
That's why I think that the wagering is a little slow.
But you get the Super Bowl leak and everyone gets
swept up and everyone loves told them up the props,

(01:10:21):
and it's suddenly the only thing you can really talk
about sports wise is this game. So I think we're
back to our levels now. And then in game wadering,
I think it matters what kind of game you start
off with. And this is just a boat race, I
think you're gonna see a big dipend in play wagering.
But if it's a close game, then you'll start seeing
a lot of people coming in and then at that

(01:10:43):
point when you're trading the game in play, it's just
you're just trying to make sure you're not being, you know,
a little asleep at the wheel. You want to make
sure you're on top of all the moves in the game,
making sure that the action you're taking is the right action.
So it'll be interesting if this I think it's going
to be a close game. I think it's I lean
under on the game as a whole, so it'll be

(01:11:08):
interesting to see what kind of in play wagering we get.
If it's close, I think we'll see a big handle.

Speaker 1 (01:11:14):
All right, Seamus, where are you taking us for the
Shamous Special this week?

Speaker 5 (01:11:18):
Yeah? I was. I was giving out to mac Hollins
on the Receptions as my pick, but I don't know.
Let's see, we're gonna have to scour the college hoops
board today. Un let's you guys want another. Let's guys
like that touchback prop. I mean you can find it.

Speaker 1 (01:11:31):
I put that in officially, Yeah, a couple of years,
we haven't had one. We're due, We're overdue, We're crazy.

Speaker 5 (01:11:40):
Right, How does that happen? If you like the hoops?
If you like the hoops play today though I like
Tennessee money Line at Kentucky Little See Ball. It'll be
TV for everyone, so no need to complain there, no.

Speaker 1 (01:11:54):
Doubt, all right, Seamus, Well, good stuff as always been
enjoyed the Super Bowl. We'll catch you soon.

Speaker 3 (01:11:59):
I'm a going on you two.

Speaker 4 (01:12:00):
There.

Speaker 1 (01:12:01):
He is Seamus McGee, team lead of Sports Trading at BEDMGM.
Hey have you ever wiped with a piece of dry
toilet paper and wondered? Is this as good as it gets?
It is not switched to life changing wet extra large
flushable Dude Wipes because wetter just cleans better. Available at
Amazon and at major retailers nationwide. Dude Wipes best clean
pants down. I saw a fun fact that I wanted

(01:12:23):
to throw your guys away. So what would you think here?
Rich and Jared? So the total number of quarterbacks that
have started a Super Bowl, it might be lower than
you think. So we're approaching Super Bowl sixty. So you think,
all right, like if we had two different quarterbacks every
single year, we'd have one hundred and twenty starting quarterbacks

(01:12:45):
in the Super Bowl?

Speaker 4 (01:12:46):
Right?

Speaker 1 (01:12:47):
What would be your guests? Like what we actually have?
Because you have a lot of repeats, you know, so
that makes the number go down. Where do you think
the number stands right now?

Speaker 4 (01:12:57):
Total starting quarterbacks who played in Super Bowl? Balls?

Speaker 1 (01:13:00):
Yeah, yeah, qbs that have started the Super Bowl.

Speaker 4 (01:13:03):
I'm going to say. I'm going to say it's a
really low number.

Speaker 6 (01:13:07):
Like like, so potential for one hundred and fifty eight.

Speaker 1 (01:13:12):
I'm going to say, just like a potential for one
to twenty that's the max.

Speaker 4 (01:13:17):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, twenty oh yeah, yeah, you're right.
Sorry what number one was? I working off of one?
I don't know. We're we're at super.

Speaker 7 (01:13:25):
Bowl eighty five?

Speaker 4 (01:13:27):
Yeah, superlighty, holy cow?

Speaker 6 (01:13:30):
All right, uh so potential all right, you know what
I'm going to say.

Speaker 4 (01:13:34):
I'm gonna go with eighty six of them?

Speaker 1 (01:13:37):
Okay, what do you think?

Speaker 7 (01:13:38):
Very five? Seventy five?

Speaker 1 (01:13:40):
Pretty good guesses? A total of sixty seven?

Speaker 6 (01:13:44):
Wow, that is that's a lot lower than I So
it's actually it's like one quarterback for Super Bowl, right.

Speaker 1 (01:13:51):
That's how many repeats we've had. Like Tom Brady, you know,
he xes out a lot of you know, new starting quarterbacks.

Speaker 7 (01:13:57):
Yeah, Montana and the Home Yeah, those guys have played.

Speaker 1 (01:14:00):
In multiple Bradshaw, right, you get to those guys, so yeah,
sixty seven total different quarterbacks have started, and it grows
by two, grows by two tomorrow, right, so it does. Yeah,
get Drake, may get Sam Darnold in there, but lower
than you would think. Right I saw that number, I'm like,
oh mych we've had that many repeat quarterbacks.

Speaker 8 (01:14:19):
That's astound shows how little parody there actually has been
in the NFL.

Speaker 1 (01:14:23):
Yeah, well, you think about eras like free agency started
in like ninety four, you know, so like the Bradshaw,
like the Steeler days, the Cowboys days, like back then,
completely different.

Speaker 7 (01:14:35):
Right, how many it also started him?

Speaker 6 (01:14:37):
It also shows you how how important it is to
have an experienced, an elite quarterback, Like I mean, just
the number of times a guy can get back to
the promised Land.

Speaker 4 (01:14:48):
It's it's difficult.

Speaker 6 (01:14:49):
That road is treacherous, and it's it's really hard to
manage those emotions. And so you need like a special operator.
You need a guy with a low heartbeat in big
time sh situations to get you there.

Speaker 4 (01:15:01):
And some of the names we just mentioned, my Tan and.

Speaker 6 (01:15:03):
Mahomes, Bradshaw, Brady Manning, like those are the guys they
can keep their cool under pressure.

Speaker 8 (01:15:10):
Man, I don't want to put you on the spot, Brian,
But how many winners have there been? Different winners? If
you if you have that number in there.

Speaker 1 (01:15:16):
No, I don't have it.

Speaker 7 (01:15:18):
I'll have to look that up.

Speaker 1 (01:15:20):
No, I'm just kidding. No, I'm not sure we could
look that one up. But I don't know what I.

Speaker 8 (01:15:29):
Think in the forties, thirty thirty between thirty and forty
would be my.

Speaker 7 (01:15:33):
Guess, Yeah, my guess, yeah, right man, about half?

Speaker 1 (01:15:37):
Yeah, it'd be gosh, yeah, somewhere around there in the
thirty ish range. I would probably something like that.

Speaker 8 (01:15:43):
But even that, you like, wow, sixties to or fifty
nine super Bowl winners, I mean only to have only
thirty ish basically half a little.

Speaker 7 (01:15:50):
More than half. I mean, they're still pretty impressive.

Speaker 1 (01:15:52):
Yeah, a lot of repeat winners, no doubt. Right, We've
got Rich Honberger, Penn State All American, Jared Smith, FSR
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(01:16:13):
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Coming up next, prop it Up, we'll get to the
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(01:16:37):
sure to check out the new looking features in the
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(01:16:57):
don't win their first bet, that's code count down in
the bed MGM app. All right, let's do this.

Speaker 3 (01:17:06):
Prop it Up player plays.

Speaker 1 (01:17:10):
We need another day and a half to talk about
all the props available here of Jared. We start with you,
what's something that you like?

Speaker 8 (01:17:16):
So I'll give you a player on the Patriots. You know,
we talked a little bit about Mac Collins. I think
he's a guy that I would definitely look for.

Speaker 6 (01:17:22):
But I'm not going to double down on what we
just heard because I'll give you that a little bit.

Speaker 7 (01:17:25):
Later in the show.

Speaker 6 (01:17:26):
But I think Kashan Pudi is another player you should
keep a very close eye on. So when I watch
some film on the Seahawks defense, the one thing I
noticed when when you go by it, when you use
a three by one formation, three receivers on one side,
one receiver on.

Speaker 7 (01:17:38):
The other side, what Seattle will do. They will play
man coverage on that single side and it allows an
opportunity for a fade route.

Speaker 8 (01:17:45):
We've seen this multiple times throughout the course of the
season with the Newingle Patriots. We saw the Rams not
attack that side with Devonte Adams running.

Speaker 7 (01:17:51):
Fade routes up the sidelines.

Speaker 8 (01:17:53):
But we've seen the Patriots and Drake made do a
very good job this year on those deep go routes
when they have single coverage on the outside. And Kaisehon
but he's a guy that can beat you vertically and
he has made a few really nice.

Speaker 7 (01:18:03):
Plays so far.

Speaker 6 (01:18:04):
Hasn't been a huge factor in the offense, but his
long receptions prop is seventeen and a half. He's not
going to be intermediate short over the middle.

Speaker 8 (01:18:12):
If Booty has an impact on this game, it is
going to be deep down the field, single coverage on
the outside. So Kishan Boudi longest reception over seventeen and
a half.

Speaker 7 (01:18:21):
A sneaky matchup to look out.

Speaker 4 (01:18:23):
For in the Super Bowl.

Speaker 6 (01:18:24):
Okay, on the bed MGM app they offer rushing and
receiving yards one hundred plus. Rushing and receiving yards for
Kenneth Walker is at minus one point fifteen and I
love this.

Speaker 4 (01:18:37):
So in the.

Speaker 6 (01:18:37):
Toughest games against the toughest opponents, Kenneth Walker really stepped
up in a big way in terms of production.

Speaker 4 (01:18:43):
You know, he scores touchdowns.

Speaker 6 (01:18:45):
He is an outlet for Darnold, and obviously, if we're
going to talk correlations, I believe the only way the
Seahawks can win this game is if they control the
ground game and he's going to be a big.

Speaker 4 (01:18:56):
Part of that.

Speaker 6 (01:18:56):
So in terms of trying to get the ball out
under pressure, trying to get the ground game established, Kenneth
Walker's gonna having a big impact on both of those.

Speaker 4 (01:19:05):
So give me Kenneth Walker rushing.

Speaker 6 (01:19:07):
And receiving one hundred plus yards minus won fifteen at bet.

Speaker 1 (01:19:12):
Mgt okay.

Speaker 4 (01:19:15):
Man.

Speaker 1 (01:19:15):
There's a lot of stuff I like, Yeah, you know,
I'll give you one that i've bet. I'd rather give
you one that i've bet instead of one that I
have not bet. But I have bet Ramandre Stevenson, the
Patriots running back, to go over his receiving yards. It's
sticked up a bit. I don't love that it's done that,
but I still think there's value on over twenty three
and a half receiving yards. Seattle just doesn't do a

(01:19:38):
very good job covering running backs out of the backfield,
and the Patriots are a good screen game team. They've
gotten Remandre Stevenson numerous opportunities. Seattle hasn't done a good
job limiting bigger plays from running back in running backs
in the receiving game, So I think Romandre Stevenson going
over twenty three and a half receiving yards is still

(01:20:00):
a good play. I did pull disclosure bet it at
a bit of a reduced number, you know, twenty and
a half, twenty one and a half around there, So
it's sticked up a little bit, but I still think
he can get there, and I still feel strongly that
he will. The one thing I would add is someone's
going under, you know what I mean? Like if not,
everybody can go over obviously, and so it's like, who's

(01:20:22):
gonna be forgotten here? I think a guy who's a
good candidate to be the forgotten guy would be the
Mario Douglas, Pop Douglas, you know, go under nine and
a half receiving yards. I don't know that he has
a catch, and there's a good chance if he has
a catch, it's for five six seven yards. He doesn't
go over in one reception, So is he gonna get
two receptions? Someone's gonna be forgotten and someone's gonna be

(01:20:44):
left out in the cold. Could very well be Pop
Douglas here. So under nine and a half I think
is a decent play with his receiving yards as well.

Speaker 6 (01:20:51):
Something I'm doing for that i'll post tomorrow is I
snapshot at all of the odds when the prop market
opened on January twenty seventh, and I'm going to snapshot
it again tomorrow. The ones that have moved up the most,
Jackson Smith and Jigba look to the under like that.

Speaker 7 (01:21:07):
That's usually where the value is.

Speaker 8 (01:21:08):
Day up, wait for all the overbetters to come in,
and then slam the under on the ones that move.

Speaker 1 (01:21:12):
All right, coming up next? How big does popularity matter?

Speaker 3 (01:21:16):
Oh?

Speaker 1 (01:21:17):
What is going on? Happy Saturday to you. I hope
your day is off to a great start. Happy super
Bowl Eve to you as well. Yes, we will get
into how much does popularity matter for Super Bowl sixty? Momentarily,
every time you make a wager at BETMGM, you earn
BETMGM rewards points that could be redeemed for things like

(01:21:37):
bonus bets or converted to MGM rewards points that could
be used towards dining shows and hotel rooms at over
twenty MGM resorts. And be sure to follow BETMGM across
all socials at BETMGM. All right, fellow, So I was
thinking about this. Seattle is obviously a very very popular choice, right,
like the most popular bets in any Super Bowl on

(01:22:01):
the spread that that has gone to Seattle like seventy
percent and maybe growing, who knows, but as of right
now the most popular super Bowl pick ever in terms
of the point spread. How much do you think that
matters for the game. Do you think that it matters
to I think it does. I think that a team
like the Patriots, where you can't help but hear this

(01:22:23):
over the course of two weeks that, oh, Seattle's expected
to win the game, They're expected to win the game
by many handsomely, you know, like boat racing them. If
you're competitive on any level, you're gonna be like, oh, oh, okay,
you know, we'll see about that. And on the flip side,
Seattle being expected to win the game by so many people,

(01:22:46):
I think real pressure comes with that. If this is
a fourth quarter game, you might tighten up a little
bit where it's like there's just a different sense between Rich.
You could talk to this when you're the underdog, maybe
a little looser. When you're affected to win far and wide,
and it's a close game, late key situation, you might
get a little tight. So I do think that it

(01:23:09):
matters for the game. Do you guys, you think this
matters at all, Rich, that Seattle is so popular of
a pick.

Speaker 4 (01:23:14):
Yeah, yeah, it absolutely does.

Speaker 6 (01:23:16):
And to speak to the psychology of being an athlete
on those types of teams, in those types of situations,
I know exactly how it feels on both sides. And
when you are a massive underdog entering a game, there
is a feeling or not even a massive underdog, but

(01:23:36):
say like a really unpopular pick, or the team you're
facing is a popular pick. Heading into a game, especially
a game that matters, there is a feeling of like, well,
everybody's expecting us to win, so why don't we just
let it all hang out?

Speaker 4 (01:23:51):
You know?

Speaker 6 (01:23:51):
And also you got to remember the scrutiny that the
coaching staff is under is different because that changes the
outcomes aren't reflective of of of massive improvements needed if
the right outcomes aren't had, Like if everybody expects the
Patriots to lose and they lose, but they keep it close.

(01:24:13):
There there are no moral victories in sports, but there
certainly are. When we're talking about job security, Oh yeah.

Speaker 7 (01:24:21):
Sure, you know.

Speaker 6 (01:24:22):
I mean there there is value to ownership and executives
when they see a team who's not expected to compete
or you know, potentially is expected to lose and keeps
it really close with a team that beat them.

Speaker 4 (01:24:35):
There there is job security in that.

Speaker 6 (01:24:38):
So you think about Mike Tomlin all those years with
first round bounces in the playoffs or or or no
playoff berths, but just keeping his team above five hundred
may have buoyed his time as head coach of the
Pittsburgh Steelers because at least he's.

Speaker 4 (01:24:56):
Not He's not a losing coach.

Speaker 6 (01:24:58):
He's a winning coach, like you know, so trust me,
those things matter in those conversations. Now, speaking specifically about
the players, there is added pressure when you're a favorite.
It's inescapable. And there is added flexibility we'll call it,
when you're an underdog, because you don't you don't feel
as hampered by the environment you're playing in. I've been

(01:25:20):
on teams where we're losing and I'm like, what the
hell is happening. We're better than these guys, right, And
that's a terrible feeling where you know you have the answers,
but for whatever reason, the normal formula for success is
not working when applied to this group and why and
the why is the hardest question to answer.

Speaker 4 (01:25:40):
When you're when the bullets are flying for real.

Speaker 6 (01:25:43):
And then when you're an underdog and you take advantage,
you take a lead, all of a sudden, there's this
like almost false sense of confidence. It's like, hey, it's
time to mount up, you know, let's go, let's go
step on their next now, and you can start really
feeling the momentum shift inside of a stadium when you're
a dog and you're fighting and all of a sudden

(01:26:06):
you find an edge. I think it's it's interesting in
the Super Bowl because the atmosphere itself is rather sterile,
like it's a very corporate vibe for you know. And
I've attended one Super Bowl, the one in LA between
the Rams and the Bengals.

Speaker 7 (01:26:19):
I was sitting in the nosebleeds.

Speaker 8 (01:26:21):
But throughout the course of the game, I remember walking
around the stadium and I never got the sense of
like it's a home field for any team, even though
literally was the Rams home field in that game. I
never got the sense that there was this like building
momentum for the underdog, right the Rams were the favorite
in that game Bengals, where the underdog Bengals have the
lead for a large majority of it, and then the
Rams came back late and won it.

Speaker 7 (01:26:41):
I think to Brian's original point, the public.

Speaker 8 (01:26:45):
Narrative, I think it is just that I think it
is a narrative for maybe the coaches to harp on
like Hey, for the Patriots especially Hey, no one thinks
you can win in this game, like the weeks leading
up to it.

Speaker 7 (01:26:55):
I think that's a talking point. But and again I can't.

Speaker 4 (01:26:57):
Speak to this.

Speaker 8 (01:26:58):
I've never been on the field for one of these games, obviously,
But once the game starts, I don't know how much
anyone really cares what side the public was on. I
think it's it's it's mostly a narrative for us as
content creators and as broadcasters to use as a launch
point for the game, like how we frame the argument

(01:27:20):
of the game. But I think once the game starts,
this is why handicapping can drive me nuts. And Brian,
I know you're as someone who bets a lot, I
know you understand this. We spend hours and hours and
hours dissecting every single angle of a game, and then
once the game starts, it is something completely different, and
none of the research that we've done has any impact on.

Speaker 7 (01:27:40):
What actually happens. Sometimes it does, and that's.

Speaker 8 (01:27:43):
When you feel very you know, it's very gratifying when
you've done the research and it actually plays out in
that way. But more often than not, a lot of
the things that we talk about and and kind of
harp on throughout this preamble, they don't really have a
whole big impact on the game. So I think once
the game starts, nobody's gonna give a who that everybody
likes Seattle. It's gonna be who's playing, Well, what's the

(01:28:06):
in game vibe? But right now, you know, twenty four
plus hours before the game, yeah, everyone's talking about Seattle,
and everyone's talking about how they're gonna win, and everyone
thinks it's a foregone conclusion. But I just don't think
when the game starts, it holds a whole lot of
relevance to who wins.

Speaker 1 (01:28:22):
You know, there are a lot of instances I would
agree with you, Jared, I'm not gonna agree with you
with this game, and for a couple of reasons, where one,
not everybody is wired like Michael Jordan. Michael Jordan's competitiveness
was on another level. But we all know he would
manufacture things to take personally, and it is like I
took that personally, you know, like he was a competitive maniac.

(01:28:46):
And there are a lot of guys you go back to,
you know, Chris Purfett's with us, our technical producer extraordinaire
Lions guy, Like you go back to Chris Spielman. One
of my favorite stories. Chris Spielman, former Lions linebacker. He
would make it up in his head that the opposing
offense was coming after his family, and he's, okay, you're

(01:29:07):
coming after my family. It's on like that's what he
would play these mind games with himself.

Speaker 11 (01:29:12):
I heard christ fieldens bark on a broadcast one time, preseason,
preseason Lions game before he got hired by the organization.
He was doing color and he was just barking like
a dog on the broadcast talking about how linebackers acted.

Speaker 4 (01:29:26):
That.

Speaker 1 (01:29:28):
I can believe that one. But the point is that
a lot of athletes will make things up for added motivation.
The Patriots don't have to make anything up. They have
been not only doubted to win this game, their season
has been reduced to a cake schedule and playoff luck
with injuries. That's all They're thought to be by a

(01:29:50):
lot of people. If you're competitive on any level, that
is going to stick with you, and we've seen it
in these playoffs. Remember the game against the Texans. The
whole week it was all about the Texans defense and
many of the Patriots defensive players they came out and
they were like yeah, yeah, we heard all that, like
we could play defense too. They took that personally. So

(01:30:10):
I think two weeks a steady diet of not only
Seattle's gonna win, Seattle might really win by a lot
of points. And the Patriots they're just a lucky team
that's gotten some breaks and a cack schedule. If you're
competitive on any level, that is going to stick with you.
And I halfway agree with you, Jared. Where the game

(01:30:31):
starts and the live bullets start flying and all of
a sudden, you don't really remember all of the naysayers,
that you're focused on doing your job and not screwing
up and all those things. But the competitiveness that you
have and all of this talk, I absolutely think that
doesn't just go into thin air. You're gonna hold on
to that, and you are absolutely gonna want to prove

(01:30:52):
the doubters wrong and prove that you're legit. Like when
you've been reduced to just a benefactor of a week's schedule,
it's like, oh, that's all you think of us. Really,
they're here to prove many people wrong. I truly believe that.

Speaker 6 (01:31:06):
And the messaging from a head coach uh to support
that point will a lot of times need credibility to
make an argument. So if you're I don't know the
Chiefs when they were popping off and you know, crushing
and dominating, it's very difficult, you know, for Andy Reid
to legitimately stand in front of that group of men

(01:31:28):
and be like, nobody thinks you guys can do it
when you're I don't know, six point favorite plus every
single game you play, and that's gonna be a tough sell.
But when you do have an opportunity to use, like
the spread, what the market is saying, the betting market
is saying as as credibility to back the argument that

(01:31:49):
nobody thinks we can win, all of a sudden, you
have some you have you have actual numbers backing that
notion in front of the team. Now it has to
be messaged effectively, and I know that Mike Rabel is
finding an effective message.

Speaker 4 (01:32:05):
He's a great orator, he is he's a great leader.

Speaker 6 (01:32:09):
He's played this game at the highest level and has
had a massive amount of success. He's been a head
coach at this level and he's had a tremendous amount
of success there as well.

Speaker 4 (01:32:19):
Not discluding his time with the Tennessee Titans.

Speaker 6 (01:32:22):
You know, you look at what he's done in a
short order with the New England Patriots. It's it's fascinating
how quickly he was able to turn around an organization
that felt like they were left for dead after a
quick visit by a former player and head coach in
Gerrod Mayo. You know, I look at the situation now
and I think to myself, like, yeah, it's it is.

(01:32:44):
It is hard to say that media types or fans,
or any of the external conversation has an enormous impact
Jared on any of the outcomes, or for anybody who's
kind of uninformed, you know, and I don't mean uninformed
like that. That's such a that's such a pejorative to
put on anybody who hasn't played, because that's not true.

(01:33:05):
You can have a lot of information, but if you
haven't lived in it, haven't been inside of it. When
when the best comparison I can make is this an elephant.
You see it out in the the you know, the
planes of Africa. An elephant will flap its ears constantly,
Why is it doing that? An elephant will like shake
sections of its skin constantly, will wag its tail, constantly.

Speaker 4 (01:33:28):
Why is it doing that? It's not for fun.

Speaker 6 (01:33:30):
I mean, when you're in the wild, you're trying to
conserve energies so that you can run from predators and
you can live longer. So why would you spend energy
flapping your ears. It's because flies are constantly buzzing. Now,
is one fly gonna take down an elephant? No?

Speaker 4 (01:33:47):
Is a thousand flies gonna take down an elephant? No,
it's ten thousand flies gonna take down an elephant. No,
But will they bother an elephant? Hell? Yeah.

Speaker 6 (01:33:57):
So you're gonna flap your ears, You're gonna wag your tail,
and you're gonna shake your skin because it's annoying.

Speaker 4 (01:34:03):
So when you're a football player and you.

Speaker 6 (01:34:05):
Spend all your time preparing and you ultimately have all
the insidct because you're there, your boots cleats literally on
the ground every day you're grinding it out. You know
who you are, you know who your teammates are, you
know how good you are, You know your limitations, you
know your strengths, you know your weakness is better than anybody.

Speaker 4 (01:34:22):
And you got to sit there and.

Speaker 6 (01:34:24):
Turn on one of these shows throughout the broadcast day,
whether it's radio or television and listen to you know,
and this is why I felt when I played and
now I'm one of them. These idiots talk about that
that they have literally zero insight on, as if they
have the credibility to speak on it and pontificate to
the masses. It annoys you, and you do hear it

(01:34:48):
and you are bothered by it. So every once in
a while, you'll see an elephant flap his ears at
the media and be like, yeah, well that's because he
don't know what he's talking about, you know what. All
of a sudden, you'll see a tail wag and you
be like and it's almost a winking and nod. It's like,
we hear what you're doing. We see what you're doing.
You just wait and see because you're not gonna hurt us,

(01:35:09):
but we hear it. And so yeah, there is this
feeling inside of a locker room, inside of a building
when you're being counted out or there's a majority opinion
that you can't do something where you don't need any
extra motivation.

Speaker 4 (01:35:22):
You're like, well, we're about to go shock the world,
you know.

Speaker 6 (01:35:25):
And it is a very much feeling of like it's
all of us in this room who knows better and
we're about to prove them all wrong. And that is
an awesome feeling. It makes you feel more powerful when
you have confidence like.

Speaker 8 (01:35:37):
That very well said, and that's why I am always
trying to take that into account when I give analysis,
because and it's actually funny that what Rich just said
is the reason why I have changed my mindset on
social media criticism over the years, because we get a
lot of social media criticism from random people.

Speaker 7 (01:35:58):
You lose a bad you have a bad it, whatever.

Speaker 8 (01:36:01):
And I used to get really mad about it and
really upset about it, and then I realized, wait a minute, Jared,
You're on national radio every week for three hours criticizing
players and coaches. Yeah, yeah, it is, so who am
I not accept the criticism from the peanut gallery that
I get from the outside world, And it's actually flipped.

(01:36:24):
I actually welcome it now because it motivates me and
it allows me to kind of see blind spots that
maybe I don't always see. I don't always agree with it,
but I again to Rich's point, the ears are flapping,
like I'm flapping the ears, and I'm kind of accepting
that it's happening, and it's an annoyance, but it's not
going to change my opinion. It's not going to change
my mindset. But what it's done is that it's allowed

(01:36:45):
me to accept it more. And it also has changed
the way that I criticize players and coaches when I
do this job, because my goal is to inform and
to educate and to entertain. It's not to be right
all the time. It's just to inform and educate and
entertain from my perspective.

Speaker 7 (01:37:01):
Let's flip this narrative.

Speaker 8 (01:37:02):
Though, because we're talking a lot about how the Patriots
feel like.

Speaker 7 (01:37:05):
They're counted out and this and that.

Speaker 8 (01:37:08):
How do you approach it from the Seahawks side, where
you are supposed to win this game. Everybody is touting
you and saying you're the best, and you're the greatest,
and in your defense and this and that. How do
you temper those expectations? How do you put that chip
back on your shoulder for the most important game of
the year when everybody thinks you've already won it and

(01:37:29):
you have it yet It's a really tough one eighty
discussion to have.

Speaker 1 (01:37:33):
Brian, Well, that's the thing is, it's all about doing
your job. You know, like that's what the focus has
to be. Because think about this, this is exactly what
Nick Saban has been talking about with rat poison. It
has been nothing but rat poison for two weeks for
the Seahawks, built up to be this goliath and oh yeah,
there's clearly gonna win the game. They might win by
you know, three four touchdowns. I've heard stuff like that

(01:37:55):
where yeah, it's a challenge to your point, it's a
challenge to stayfaocused on what you have to do to
win the game instead.

Speaker 7 (01:38:03):
Of you know, it's the old school reading your.

Speaker 1 (01:38:05):
Own press clippings. You know, you could you could fall
into that trap pretty easily if you're Seattle. You just
can't allow yourself to do it. One thing I want
to say though, real fast is I hate when this
comes up, and it comes up a lot with the
Super Bowl where it's like, what they're not motivated to
begin with to win the super Bowl. It's like, they're
clearly motivated to win the Super Bowl whoever's playing in

(01:38:28):
the super Bowl. But most athletes do not have a
switch to flip off, you know, like I'm just not
going to pay attention to the naysayers, right, Like I'm
not going to pay attention to the critics who are
doubting me and us far and wide. They typically don't
they These are uber competitive athletes, and when they are

(01:38:51):
doubted with anything any capacity, they're like game freaking on.
Let's go. It just harkens back to Super Bowl forty two.
It's amazing. This is almost twenty years old, by the way,
but remember when Plexico Burris, he was a member of
the Giants, and he gave his prediction for the Super Bowl,
and I think he said the Giants were gonna win

(01:39:12):
twenty three to seventeen, and Tom Brady famously was like,
We're only gonna score seventeen points, okay, And then Michael
Strahan he talked about this on America's Game.

Speaker 7 (01:39:21):
Check this out. I love this audio. We're only gonna
score seventeen points.

Speaker 10 (01:39:26):
Okay, sound practical. It's not giving us any credit for form.
Feel seventeen points that I think resonated with us. That
made us goull oh, okay, you're that confident. We'll see
right now now.

Speaker 1 (01:39:42):
Granted, it hasn't been a Seahawks player doubting the Patriots,
but there has been so much doubt. And that's the thing, man,
these athletes, they're not just like ah, who are they?
What do they matter? It's like, oh, you're doubting us.
We are going to move mountains a tempting to prove
you're wrong. And so I absolutely think these two weeks

(01:40:03):
leading up to the game matters for sure.

Speaker 4 (01:40:05):
Yeah, and think about what just.

Speaker 6 (01:40:08):
Happened there psychologically, So Plaxico Burris is annoyed at all
the doubters who are saying that the Patriots are going
to pommel the Giants. Yeah, they're this undefeated team and
their monsters. And he was like, well, what about our defense,
what about our offense? What about what about our guy?
You know the other manning like Eli's pretty good? You

(01:40:30):
know what, we can't beat the Patriots? Yeah, you know
at twenty three seventeen? How about that? How them apple
stasts and all of a sudden that is read as
doubt by Tom Brady, and he's using it to feel
him we're only going to score seventeen points, laughing at
the notion that this Giants defense.

Speaker 4 (01:40:47):
Can can handcuff in that way. And then it.

Speaker 6 (01:40:51):
Spins back to Strahan, who's like, oh that's how you
feel about us?

Speaker 4 (01:40:56):
Yeah, I mean It is an.

Speaker 6 (01:40:57):
Unbelievable whirlwind of motivation and fuel wherever you can ascertain it,
but to and really quick to get to the crux
of how you motivate a team like the Seahawks, and
Jared I thought it was really good idea to spin
it around and look at it from the other paradigm
and shift it. If you're Mike McDonald, you need to

(01:41:21):
do what the best coaches do.

Speaker 4 (01:41:23):
When the doors are.

Speaker 6 (01:41:24):
Locked and the lights are off and you're turning on
film of the New England Patriots, you talk about them
like they're the monsters of Midway. They're gonna come. They're
gonna snatch our souls. They're gonna steal our wives, They're
going to throw our kids in the river. This team
is out for blood. What are you gonna do to
defend what's.

Speaker 4 (01:41:45):
Important to you?

Speaker 6 (01:41:46):
The ball is the most important thing in your life
on Sunday. If the literally the hopes and dreams of
all of us in this room rely on that football
and what happens between that one hundred and twenty fifty
two and a half, you know this is it. For
the rest of your life, you will be measured by
how you treat that football.

Speaker 4 (01:42:06):
You know, if you.

Speaker 6 (01:42:07):
Can somehow take this game out of the ether and
boil it down and distill it to what's at hand, well,
that's when.

Speaker 4 (01:42:15):
You get your troops motivated.

Speaker 6 (01:42:16):
That's how even though you're the favorite and the presumed winner,
you can still get the best out of your men.
It's hard to do, but the best coaches can do it.

Speaker 7 (01:42:25):
Well, all right.

Speaker 1 (01:42:26):
That is Rich Orenberger, Penn State All American. Jared Smith
with us FSR betting analyst. I'm Brian, No. Have you
ever wiped with a piece of dry toilet paper and wondered?
Is this as good as it gets? It is not
switched to life changing wet extra large flushable Dude Wipes
because wetter just cleans better. Available at Amazon and at
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(01:42:49):
Coming up next. Both of these decisions did not work
out well at all. But which decision was worse?

Speaker 4 (01:42:56):
It is?

Speaker 1 (01:42:56):
Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by BETMGM. Is
Fox Sports Radios Countdown to kick Off presented by Bett MGM.
With the iHeartRadio app, you can stream us wherever you
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(01:43:18):
and be sure to select Fox Sports Radio is one
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pop up at the top of your screen. All right,
So in a couple of minutes, we'll get to extended
prop betting talk, right Like, there are literally thousands to
select from, and so we got to give it a
little bit more time here. But I was thinking about

(01:43:38):
this too. If you compare Sam Donald and Mike Vrabel, Okay,
these were two bad decisions. They did not work out
well at all. But which was the worst of the
two decisions? Would you say it's the Vikings releasing Sam
Donald or the Titans firing Mike Vrabel? Which would you

(01:43:58):
go with?

Speaker 4 (01:43:58):
There? Rich?

Speaker 3 (01:44:00):
Who?

Speaker 4 (01:44:01):
Man?

Speaker 6 (01:44:02):
That is such a difficult question to answer because the
context was so.

Speaker 4 (01:44:08):
Different in both of the circumstances.

Speaker 6 (01:44:11):
But if I were to choose one worse than the other,
I would say, and this isn't recency biased, and I'll
explain why in a second, but I'll say Donald being
released by the Vikings and now the reality is when
you have a special player who's playing great football regardless

(01:44:35):
of the circumstances. I've always felt like this is a
player's game. Coaches and executives don't win football games, and
Sam Donald proved that he can win you football games.
And I think Kevin O'Connell saw that, and I think
he really appreciated what what Sam Donald was able to
do inside of his offensive system. And I think if

(01:44:56):
it were strictly up to Kevin O'Connell, I bet you
Sam Donald stays. Now, when you have executives and a
lot of other differing opinions inside a building, that really
get into the stew and try to make it a
full meal and a full menu. Yeah, obviously you spent
this draft capital on this player, and you know the

(01:45:17):
list of excuses start pouring down the pipeline. Yeah, you know,
it's one of those things where you can see how
you get to. Ultimately the decision they made, it doesn't
mean it was the right one. And yeah, I guess
if we spun back the clock and we evaluated everything
happening with the Tennessee Titans at the time, we can
make all the arguments why Mike Rabel should stay, but

(01:45:39):
I think there were louder arguments as to why the
culture needed a change at the moment. And the biggest
argument I heard that made the most sense to me
for him losing his job was he was feuding with
ownership and with executives. And when you don't play well
in the sandbox with your coworkers, that can poison an environment,

(01:46:00):
and players will, if they hadn't already, eventually feel that.
And you don't want infighting. You want to be a
united front. It's like parenting in some ways. And I
make these parallels all the time coaching. Being a great
coach is kind of like being a great parent. You know,
the tough love stuff, you know, the unabashed, hard truths
that you face criticism and love. You know, you often

(01:46:23):
talk about your your teammates as your brothers or your
football team as your family. That's real, it feels real,
and and those bonds laft last a lifetime. I mean,
some of my groomsmen were former teammates. I mean, it's
just how it goes like these are some of the
most trusted people in your life. So I digress on
that to talk about Vrabel specifically, if the well is

(01:46:45):
poisoned because you can't get along and unite as a front.
Front off is head coach, coaching staff, and then where
our role is to oversee these players, then a change
needs to be made, and I think the Tennessee Titans
essential we made the right change then. So I would
say the worst decision is Sam Donald being released by

(01:47:05):
the Vikings.

Speaker 7 (01:47:06):
They're both really bad guys. It's really hard. We're threading
the needle here.

Speaker 8 (01:47:12):
But I will say this, it is a dual argument.
Right one side is politics. The other side I think
is potential. With Vrabel, it's politics. He hated John Robinson,
the guy who traded aj Brown away, couldn't stand him,
wanted to get rid of him. When they finally did
get rid of him, he wanted his guy to be

(01:47:33):
pushed into the GM role, kind of a power grab,
someone who was aligned with Rabel's thoughts. They went with
Ran Carthon instead, which was not a great decision because
he's not the GM of the team anymore either. So
the decision like it was kind of a it was
kind of like a hey, we're gonna get rid of Robinson,
and Raper was like, great, let's put this guy who

(01:47:54):
was loyal to me, who I like in the GM
role that didn't work out, and that was kind of
the writing on the wall that the relationship was about
to end. And then he went to the Patriots Hall
of Fame ceremony that the owner didn't like. And then again,
as Rich alluded to, there was a lot of politics
happening behind the scenes where the team just needed a
fresh start. They had a brutal season, is last year

(01:48:14):
in Nashville and it was time for a fresh start,
whereas the Donald situation was all about potential.

Speaker 7 (01:48:19):
Right we talked about his road.

Speaker 8 (01:48:21):
He went from San Francisco, learned under Shanahan that one year,
then signed a one year deal with Minnesota the same
spring that they drafted JJ McCarty. McCarthy gets hurt first.
I think it was the first preseason game out for
the year. Donald has a great season, wins fourteen games,
then he flames out in the playoffs, and now he's
a free agent and he probably went back to Minnesota

(01:48:43):
and said, hey, this is what I want. Three years
right around one hundred mil. That's what he got from Seattle,
and Minnesota's like, we got this JJ McCarty kid, who
we kind of like, and we don't want to give
you three years because that means that we've got to
kind of push his rookie deal off the path, which
means we're committed to Sam Donald for this higher duration
instead of giving McCarthy the reps. So they designed to

(01:49:03):
go with the potential of JJ. McCarthy didn't work out, right,
And maybe he does improve. It's still early in that process,
but right now it's obvious that McCarthy situation hasn't worked out.
So I think both of the decisions were kind of
baked from different reasonings.

Speaker 7 (01:49:20):
But if I had to pick one that was really bad,
I mean JJ McCarthy. Guys.

Speaker 8 (01:49:25):
Yeah, Like, I think I agree with Rich here. Now,
don't get me wrong, they're both very bad decisions in hindsight, right,
I think the McCarty one is worse because it's a player,
And as Rich said, I agree that the game is.

Speaker 7 (01:49:38):
Won on the field with players.

Speaker 1 (01:49:40):
It depends how you break it down, like which decision
was worse, Vikings releasing Darnold or Titans firing Vrabel or
as Tiffany Hattish said, Mike verbal, Mike verb, Mike verbal.
But you know whatever, we all screw up names from
time to time, no big deal. But with Rabel, I
thought at the it made way more sense for the

(01:50:02):
Vikings to move on from Donald than it made for
the Titans to move on from Vrabel, because if you
looked at we said, this is like one year ago,
you know where Sam Donald was wetting himself in the
two biggest games of the entire season, went against the
Lions final game of the regular season and then the
playoff game against the Rams. He was freaking brutal and

(01:50:23):
you had a top ten pick with JJ McCarthy. Now
you see how this season played out. Donald was pretty good,
great against the Rams last week, and then like JJ
McCarthy was the opposite of that.

Speaker 4 (01:50:37):
You know.

Speaker 1 (01:50:38):
So, but at the time you're thinking, hey, Kevin O'Connell's
kind of like a quarterback whisperer over here, you know Donald,
What had Donald done ever in the NFL before he
got to the Vikings with Kevin O'Connell, So it made
sense like, well, maybe this guy will be as productive
with JJ McCarthy, or similarly, it made sense at the

(01:50:59):
time one year in it certainly has not played out
that way, and it looks like a brain dead decision.
I think it made a lot more sense at the time.
I didn't think it made sense to move on from
Mike Rabel, Like that's just bad ownership. Really, Like to
Rich's point, there was some fighting, they were clashing heads.
The whole thing. That had more to do with ownership
being bad than Mike Vrabel not being a good coach.

(01:51:21):
Like look at them now, like year one with the Patriots,
they went from thirteen losses in each of the last
two seasons to fourteen wins and a Super Bowl appearance.
It's like Titans just have horrible ownership. You know, they
went three and fourteen the last two years without Vrabel,
Like each of the last two years they've been three
and fourteen, three and fourteen. The last year of Rabel

(01:51:41):
was with the Titans. That was Will Levis's rookie season,
you know, and they kicked him to the curb at
I think as a horrible decision. If I had to
break the tie, I would say firing Vrabel was the
worst of the two. We got a little bit of
time for the Super Bowl prop bets and anything exotic,
anything that you haven't mentioned yet that you like that
you want to talk about real quick.

Speaker 6 (01:52:02):
Rich, You know, if there's anything off the top of
my head, you know. Actually it's more of a question
than it is a prop that I want to bet,
and it's one that I think a lot of people
have curiosities about. I'm curious if you or Jared ever
bet it. And this is really one of the ones
that has nothing to do with the game at all.

Speaker 4 (01:52:22):
The national anthem.

Speaker 6 (01:52:23):
Okay, no boy, there are people who pregame constantly, are
tweeting out the timing of the practice round, so to speak.
Has that ever affluent you know, I mean, has that
ever effectively influenced where you can actually wager that and
proven that you could get an edge on something like

(01:52:43):
that I'm talking about for people want to make a
quick buck, don't really have a dog in the fight,
maybe don't even watch football, but they want to get
in on the action somehow.

Speaker 8 (01:52:51):
So here's what I'll say about the anthem props. They're
not available for betting in the States. You have to
fuck them in far away lands. And typically from my experience,
from my experience betting them, you.

Speaker 7 (01:53:06):
Can't get down a lot of money on them.

Speaker 8 (01:53:08):
Like I remember one year, I was like, Hey, I'm
gonna bet all the you know, I got some good information.
Crack usually have some good information from his people about
the timing of it, and they have people that are
basically staked out in front of the you know, in
front of the stadium while the practices are going on.
You can only bet like one hundred bucks on it,
so it's just or even less than that at certain spots.
So it's not something where the big heavy professional money

(01:53:29):
really gives a hoot because you just can't get down
a whole lot on it. In terms of exotic prop
bets that I personally like betting.

Speaker 7 (01:53:37):
So here's what I like doing.

Speaker 8 (01:53:38):
I like writing my gamescript, and then I like trying
to find ways to bet on that game script in
the most efficient way possible. Here's a great example. Let's
say you're someone who really likes Seattle to win the game,
but you don't want to lay four and a half points,
you don't want to lay minus two thirty on the
money line. Well, there are other ways to bet Seattle
to win the game based off of the game script

(01:53:58):
that are cheaper. For examp, we'll Seattle have the most
first downs in the game. That's minus one forty. Well,
Seattle's minus two thirty to win the game, and odds
are if they win the game, probably going to have
the most first downs, most offensive plays. Is also priced
around minus one forty. These are just ways that I
like to get down on a team if I think

(01:54:19):
they're going to win in the most cost efficient way possible.
The other interesting one will both team score in the
first quarter.

Speaker 7 (01:54:28):
That's a no for me. Punts.

Speaker 8 (01:54:31):
I like the over on punts in the game. Here's
a here's a great way to, you know, impress your
friends at your Super Bowl party.

Speaker 7 (01:54:38):
Say that you're.

Speaker 8 (01:54:39):
Betting the over on punts in the game and see
what their face looks like. You say, yeah, So these
are just kind of fun, little kirky ways.

Speaker 3 (01:54:45):
Right.

Speaker 8 (01:54:46):
We think it's a low scoring game, so bet the
game script that aligns with what you think.

Speaker 1 (01:54:51):
Yeah, it's weird. This might be a little counterintuitive. I
think it's gonna be a very low scoring game. But
there was one exotic on pet MGM that caught my attention.
Each quarter back to pass for fifteen plus yards each quarter.

Speaker 7 (01:55:04):
Oh wow, it's at.

Speaker 1 (01:55:05):
Plus one ten, So it's actually a slight underdog to get.

Speaker 7 (01:55:08):
Yeah, I like that.

Speaker 1 (01:55:10):
Actually, you know, it's a good one. You think fifteen
passing yards in a quarter. That's not a whole lot
of time, right, Yeah, it could be just one and
you're good. It'd be a tough sweat to go on
the other side, Like they won't get there, but that's
according to the odds. There's actually a better chance, like
it doesn't get there. But I mean think about that,

(01:55:31):
like what could go wrong. Let's say the first quarter
is the most likely quarter where a quarterback wouldn't reach
fifteen passing yards. One team gets the ball, it's a
long sustained drive. The other team gets the ball, they
go three and out or something like that, or they
run the ball a decent amount, pick up a first down,
but they don't throw it, and you just don't get
there in a particular quarter. But I think there's a

(01:55:51):
good chance that we get there in each quarter.

Speaker 4 (01:55:54):
Right.

Speaker 1 (01:55:54):
That's a fun one, though a little exotic. I like
that one.

Speaker 4 (01:55:58):
Yeah, I like that a lot of the punts.

Speaker 6 (01:56:00):
I was thinking about that too, like, like one of
the my favorite props on this game is who will
have the.

Speaker 4 (01:56:08):
Most total gross punt yardage?

Speaker 1 (01:56:10):
Okay, yeah, and that's that's a fun I like the yeah, yeah, yeah,
And I like the pats.

Speaker 6 (01:56:16):
You know, I do think that, like so those things,
I do agree. I think I think if you really
dig in and you think about the game script and
how you think it's going to be played, you can
find props that align with your thought process and really
and really have fun with some of the props available.

Speaker 1 (01:56:32):
Because there's tons available for Super Bowl literal thousands, it's crazy.
We'll get to some of those. Coming up next. We've
got rich Oornberger, Penn State All American, Jared Smith FSR
betting analyst. I'm Brian Note love college basketball. Gear up
for another exciting season of college ball with a special
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(01:56:52):
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Speaker 4 (01:57:12):
All right.

Speaker 1 (01:57:12):
Coming up next, the Moment of Truth rapid fire. We
have a bushel of picks to get to you. We'll
do that.

Speaker 4 (01:57:17):
Coming up.

Speaker 1 (01:57:18):
It is Fox Sports Radios countdown to kickoff. Presented by
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Speaker 7 (01:57:40):
Again.

Speaker 1 (01:57:40):
Just search Fox Sports Radio wherever you get your podcasts,
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(01:58:02):
You know I gotta do it with the Boston X
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(01:58:24):
we got some picks to make.

Speaker 4 (01:58:25):
Let's do it.

Speaker 3 (01:58:29):
Rampant fire.

Speaker 1 (01:58:31):
All right, Jared, we start with you straight off a
zero and zero week because we had Super Bowl picks.

Speaker 7 (01:58:36):
Right, what do you have for us? Undefeated?

Speaker 4 (01:58:38):
Right?

Speaker 7 (01:58:38):
I didn't lose the bet last week.

Speaker 8 (01:58:40):
Mac Collins over twenty five and a half receiving yard
Shamus gave this out on the reception side earlier in
the show.

Speaker 7 (01:58:46):
Love this matchup.

Speaker 8 (01:58:48):
So the Seahawks run a lot of too high safety
is about seventy eight percent of snaps. Hollins with a
twenty percent target shair against too high this year. So
we like to align our becks with what we think.
The gamescript is going to be. Seahawks team told under
twenty five and a half. We think it's gonna be
a low scoring game. We like the dogs out of
the market. That means Seattle's not gonna score as many
points as we expect. Under twenty five and a half.
Team total for the Seahawks.

Speaker 6 (01:59:09):
And the Patriots plus four and a half reduced juice
at bet MGM, you get this at even odds.

Speaker 8 (01:59:16):
I love this wager. We think it's gonna be a
close game, the points will matter. I'll take the Pats
plus four and a half.

Speaker 6 (01:59:22):
Okay, I'm again following the same logic, game script being
really important to this first bet. I got the Patriots
with the longest punt gross yardage. I'm taking the Pats
because I think they're going to be forced into longer
third down situations, playing single high, getting an extra body
in the box. I think Seattle is gonna say, hey,

(01:59:43):
we're gonna lose. It's gonna be because Drake may beats us,
and I'm not sure that he can. So I think
the Patriots are gonna be punting more than the Seahawks
give me them, getting more gross punt yardage. Seattle Seahawks
first team to make a field goal. I also think
this is going to another key watch Kenneth Walker start

(02:00:03):
gaining some positive ground in the first quarter, getting them close,
but no Cigar have to settle for a.

Speaker 4 (02:00:09):
Myers field goal.

Speaker 6 (02:00:10):
And I'm taking over seventy and a half yards with
Kenneth Walker. We talked about that earlier. I'm taking the
receiving and the rushing crop. I'll take the rushing crop
in the over.

Speaker 1 (02:00:19):
Okay, all right, good stuff. I'm gonna go with the
under for the game. Love that the most Seahawks Patriots
give me under forty five and a half. I think
both defenses have the advantage. I see a lower scoring game.
I don't know if one point team gets the twenty. Really,
I don't know. It might be that low scoring. Give
me the Patriots plus four and a half. I just
think they're being slept on. I just think they've been

(02:00:41):
reduced to a team that played a cake schedule and
got some lucky breaks. They're way more than that, so
I love them plus four and a half. Give me
Pop Douglas under nine and a half receiving yards. Someone's
gonna be left out. I say it's Pop