3 & Out - NFL & CFB Best Bets: NFL's Playoff Weekend & College Football Playoff's National Championship Game

John is joined by betting guru, Stuckey from The Action Network to break down the upcoming HUGE weekend in the NFL and the College Football National Championship Game. They dive into all the action, key storylines, and deliver their expert insight on where the value is for bettors. The action starts on Thursday and they’ve got you covered with sharp analysis and some of the best bets to make this weekend.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
What is going on Everybody, John middlecop three and our
podcast How Are We Doing? Presented by my friends at
Zone Pouches. Today we will be talking to Stucky. We
recorded on Wednesday. If you're listening to this, either headed
to the hospital in the hospital, maybe have a kid
by now. Maybe I don't yet. We'll see if we
get pushed back for emergencies, but we are. I don't

(00:37):
mean our emergency. I'm just saying if C section, if
there are other emergency bursts, we get pushed back. So
it's a fluid situation. But we'll have Stucky on today
talk about the games. We'll look back a little bit
and talk about at the end the College Football National Championship.
Also up on Netflix, Stucky's Netflix debut, and yeah, so
make sure you check that out. We have all of

(00:58):
our content up there obviously. If you're listening audio, Spotify, Apple,
subscribe to the podcast. If you listen on Collins, I
appreciate you doing that. Tomorrow we recorded with Josh Pate.
It looks like ESPN is about to build a show
around the guy Fellow ball Brother. That will be tomorrow
and yeah, it's a game plan for the week. So

(01:20):
let's just you guys know him. He's here every week.
Let's dive into my main man, Stucky. Okay, we've been
doing this every week for years. For those of you
watching that are new to this, this is my good
friend Stucky. He is a fellow degenerate gambler, works for
the Action Network. You can find him all over the place,

(01:41):
big bets on campus, guys, dialed in on college football
and basketball, and knows the National Football League from a
gambling standpoint as well as anyone I've ever been associated with.
So we do this all throughout the football season. And
he's he just had a baby as well, So he's

(02:02):
got a new baby, he's got basketball season in full swing,
he's got the NFL playoffs. Probably slept, my guess would
be over under eight hours this entire week and going
right into a massive, massive weekend for the National Football League. Stuckey,
how are you holding up?

Speaker 1 (02:20):
Yeah under on that and yeah, everything's going well. Had
a rough I had a rough Wildcard weekend. I loved,
loved my card and I mean JAG's first half was
one of my favorite bets of the year, and Jack's
first half money line had him I think plus one

(02:41):
h two closed like minus one forty five, They missed
a field goal, Parker Washingt gets hurt, Trevor Lawrence's shin
goes down. That was rough. The Packers were one of
my favorite bets. That was absolute pain. It was only
the second time in playoff history a team has scored
twenty five or more points in the four, fourth quarter

(03:01):
ind or overtime in a fifteen plus point comeback. The
other was the Falcons against the Patriots and the Super Bowl,
or I should say the Patriots against the Falcons super
Bowl when they were down twenty eight three. That was
one of my biggest losses ever. I had the Falcons
plus four and a half, one of the most painful
losses and one of the biggest financially. So that was

(03:24):
like reliving that.

Speaker 2 (03:27):
So how cocky were you at twenty eight three that day?

Speaker 1 (03:31):
Yeah? I thought it was over. And I mean this
sequence of events that had to happen. I mean that
this is what Bears games have been like all season.
But you had McManus missing kicks left and right the
fourth and eight that was the game you. I mean,
you have to give Caleb credit for that throw on

(03:52):
fourth and eight, But if they don't call the false start,
the ball snaps over his head. The game's over if
they don't convert that fourth and eight. The Packers of
the ball at midfield, up eleven with six to go.
But yeah, I thought it was over. And then when
they scored again, then I got a little nervous. Then
when I scored again to go up eleven, I thought
it was over. But then after that fourth and eight,

(04:12):
I was like, you never know this Bear team. I've
seen this story. And then they get the two point conversion.
The Packers miss more kicks. I mean, if you think
about it, if they just the margins are so thin
in the NFL playoffs from a betting perspective and just
in how these games are decided. And I mean the
Jags they have an all Pro kicker, they make twenty
kicks in a row. They miss a kick at the

(04:32):
end of the first half, which is like a shock
you miss even though it was from like fifty two. Yeah,
that ends up being the margin the Packers if they
make any of those kicks, if Ecvanness makes any of
those kicks at the extra point or any of the
field goals, they miss a kick at the other the
first half too. Then at the end when they're at
the twenty yard line, I mean McManus would probably miss

(04:54):
it again, but you could kick a fuel goal either
tied or win it, and you don't need a touchdown there.
So the margins are very thin. And then I had
the Chargers, which I was just dead wrong on. I mean,
Herbert was. He was bad, horrifying. I mean, you could
blame the offensive line, you could blame the game plan.

(05:15):
I don't care like that. In the first half, he
had pockets to throw, he had clean pockets, and he
couldn't make the throws. He looked gun shy. He looked
like a rookie. I mean, that was the worst I've
ever seen him play. And credit to the Patriots, apparently
they were the charters. Offense was confused, but Herbert misthrows,
missed wide open guys and just looked gunshy. So yeah,

(05:38):
it didn't get much right on the weekend. Did have
some Eagles forty nine ers under which I had a sweat.
But yeah, a couple of bad breaks, but that that'll happen.

Speaker 2 (05:49):
What were you saying? A couple situations the Jags game
when they only have the one time out and there's
a minute left. Would you have knelt the ball, made
him burn it and then you know, get it down
or I guess they were out of timeout, so you
kneel the ball, you get it to like what thirty
second range to be safe, to give yourselves a little time,

(06:11):
I thought, And I get it, you're on the road.
But I it's like, man, this this team is a
great kicker. The kickoff rule now shortens the field. I'm
all for. I get it. You can't get tricky, but
you have the best player you know on the planet
who's dominating this game. The touch push had been working
or the josh push or whatever you want to call it.

(06:32):
That that was a pretty big risk by McDermott. That
ended up paying off because they get the pick whatever
a couple of plays later. But I was like, damn,
that's that was crazy.

Speaker 1 (06:41):
I thought one thousand percent. I tweeted it out immediately.
I said, you have to quick knee and then score.

Speaker 2 (06:50):
What would you run it down to like twenty five Yeah.

Speaker 1 (06:53):
Twenty five seconds? Because you've also had a time out.

Speaker 2 (06:55):
Yeah, so they had a couple.

Speaker 1 (06:58):
Yeah, So like time was it an issue for you?
But just think about it from a probability standpoint, Like
if the chances of you scoring a touchdown on second, third,
and fourth in goal, you can get three chances with
Josh Allen and the Twitsch I mean is ninety nine percent,

(07:20):
maybe ninety eight percent. Like you could have a false
start right there could be a fumble and snap that
could happen on first down too, but that those chances
are so much higher than the chances of you scoring
right away and then kicking off. There's a chance. The
Jags started the thirty five that Cam Little was kicking,

(07:44):
was making seventy yarders in pregame warmups. He's two of
two from sixty seven plus in his career. The rest
of the NFL. In NFL history, all of the kickers
are oh of twenty two from sixty seven plus. You
might only need one first down to get a fugel range.
That probability is so much higher. So they they completely
botched it that they got away with it because Lawrence

(08:05):
threw a pick, but he also missed the touch There
was a wide open guy on that play that could
have ran for a touchdown. I thought McDermott completely botched
that you have to go down there and the other
there's two other reasons why you know that was the
bad move. That was the incorrect move from a game
theory perspective. One, the Jags money line where the Bills

(08:31):
live money line in the live market. When they scored
on first down, their odds went down to win the game,
so like the market would say, okay, now, the probability
then winning the game is lower than if they would
have waited. And number two, the Jags let them score,
so that the Jags knew that they needed to let

(08:52):
the Bills score there to give them the best chance
to tie the game into force overtime. So yeah, it
was the wrong move. McDermot almost pulled a you know,
a Chiefs thirteen second repeat from a couple of years
ago when they messed up the kickoff and then they
let Kelsey catch up pass up the seam to get

(09:13):
a field goal range. Now, no one will ever talk
about it again because Lawrence thro a pick. But I
thought it was clearly the wrong move, but they got
away with it. Allen was incredible, and I mean, yeah,
you just have to go down there. There's no way
that they're stopping Allen on three downs from the one.

Speaker 2 (09:35):
Yeah, I mean totally with you. Obviously the Eagle game,
you know, to lose to that forty nine er team
wallow from practice squads to Eric Kendricks, who was kind
of out of the league, you know, trending toward his
career being over making game winning plays against you, you
know the time. You know, Kyle is not a trick

(09:56):
play guy. You know, I can count on one hand
the trick plays he's running the last five year. But
they've all come in big spots. Won the Super Bowl,
won in that famous uh debo, threw a pass to
Jennings against the Rams week eighteen. The Niners had to
win to get in the division. They were getting blown
out in the first half. I was actually at that game.
So he's not Kyle's you know, not some you know

(10:19):
Ben Johnson with the trick play. So when he busts
him out, you know he clearly he's on tilt, knowing
his season was, you know, on the line. Obviously in
a playoff game, it is, but the underdog mentality. We'll
get into that game a little bit later. Against Seattle,
I think, you know, they might need like a fake
pun or a fake field goal. They should be using
some of that type stuff. This week potentially, but man,
that was you know, looking back, it's one of those

(10:42):
I didn't have much faith just because and part of
it was recency biased. It wasn't even just the Seattle game.
It was a week before against Chicago when they were
just scoring it will You're like, this defense just out
of bodies. But I mean, what you know, we talk
a lot about coaching performances, but Kyle and Sola coming
out of that, I mean, that's a pretty legendary performance
by those two guys.

Speaker 1 (11:03):
Yeah, unbelievable. They deserve all the credit, that's the beautiful
thing about and it makes it tough to bet on.
You know, obviously lines are really efficient this time of
the year, but this is you know, I'll spend all
week diving into tendencies and NFL teams change on a
week to week basis, but especially in the playoffs, you

(11:23):
can flip, right, and that's when you can flip everything
these highest leverage games. But I thought Sala did a
tremendous job with his fifth, sixth, and seventh string linebackers,
and you know, part of what you know, like Salid,
there's a ton of credit for what he's working with him,
what he's done all year, but part of that was

(11:45):
the story of the Eagles all year. Yeah, I mean,
this is a team they went twenty they went to
stretch after they went on a ninety six yard touchdown drive,
They went twenty seven plays for twenty four yards over.
It just happened all year, no matter who they played,
and it is just how many hitches can you run?
They couldn't run the ball on anybody. But I thought

(12:07):
Shanahan because that Eagles defense, which was healthy too, was
one of the most elite units in the NFL all year. Additionally,
you had wind going up against that defense, going up
against a Fangio defense that in foe head to head

(12:28):
meetings Shanahan never cleared fifteen points to average ten point
two five points per game, clearly had Shannan's number, so
he made I just thought he called a hell of
a game, used a trick play at the right time.
I didn't think they were gonna be able to hit
that many pass explosives. I mean, DeMarcus Robinson looked like

(12:48):
you know, Jerry Rice out there, So I thought Shanahan
was unbelievable to lose kittle two to go do that
drive to take the lead was awesome, but it also
was a fitting end and a micro cosm of the
entire season for the Eagles, although I didn't expect the

(13:08):
defense to get torched like that, but the offense it
was a lot overdue that that's how they would that
they would end their season because Patula and that offense,
it was just a disaster from from day one.

Speaker 2 (13:25):
Patula and you've been rattling off stats, like statistically he
is dramatically worse than the Ben Johnson offense, which was
obviously struggled. But the quarterback has to get some ship.
I mean he he doesn't. He doesn't want to run anymore.
That that would have been a game Lamar Jackson or
Josh Allen would have ran for eighty five to one
hundred yards. He could one play they got called back.

(13:48):
He could have had that play all game long. Quarterback
sweeps quarterback. But he doesn't want to do it, clearly
because it's not like the staff's like, let's just out
run Jalen. They're not that dumb. It's the quarterback. I
told this to Colin on Sunday night. I think he
views himself like Russell did, like once they won the
Super like I'm a pot quarterback. I'm not running anymore.
And Russell was even less of a runner than like

(14:09):
Jalen is a natural runner in the open field. But
he just doesn't want to do it because you should
have called like minimum, like five quarterback powers. A couple
of the probably would have hit for like twenty yards.

Speaker 1 (14:20):
Yeah it was that was the defense that you do
it against. And yeah there's a patula, doesn't he gets it.
He deserves a ton of blame, but certainly not all
of it. Heerts should get a lot. The offensive line
also is way worse. I mean, how many times gets
no matter who they played is Barkley. It's not like

(14:40):
Barkley lost a step. You can see him once he
hit once he is a hole, still has the same explosives.
How many times all year they hand the ball off
the Barkley and immediately he's.

Speaker 2 (14:50):
Led the league led? The league touches behind the backfield
line of scrimmage.

Speaker 1 (14:54):
And like the forty nine ers run defense a team
that doesn't get pressure. They were in the backfield all night.
So the offensive line deserves some blame as well. And
then I think Siriani and how I don't know his
the offense was almost it kind of took on like

(15:15):
his arrogance, like they would just they felt like they
were just like too cool for school sometimes and they
would put a drive together and then they would just
be lax days. There was no never any energy. But
when he went after he went after A J. Brown
for not getting off the sidelines, they get in each
other's face and then A J. Brown doesn't have to

(15:37):
catch the rest of the day like he A J.
Brown is. It seems like he's that type of guy
that is just like all right, I'm checking out of here, Like, yeah,
you have to know how to handle the personalities of
your team. I would be shocked if he's back in
Philly if is stuck you.

Speaker 2 (15:54):
But AJ Brown is a lock to be traded in
the next probably after the combine, it'll be announced he's
been has it has to.

Speaker 1 (16:01):
Be, But like, yeah, what a waste you have? They
have talent like you have A J. Brown, Devonte Smith,
Saquon Barkley, you know, Dallas Goddard on paper of one
of the better offensive lines and then what a waste
for that offense and a talented roster. But credits are
the forty nine ers for going on the road and

(16:22):
getting a win that you know, not a lot of
people saw, including myself. Uh, it's all happening.

Speaker 2 (16:27):
Do you consider yourself you know when people said the
sharps aron so and so, do you consider yourself as sharp?

Speaker 1 (16:33):
Uh? I would? I mean yeah, I would say so.
And it's it's it's all round like there's gonna be when.
One of the things that I will say is that
when like last week the books they said the sharp

(16:55):
sides were like the Jags, Pittsburgh Packers, Ye had the
steel I wasn't on the Steelers, but I was on
the Jags, the Packers, the Eagles at an early number,
and so I tend to be on similar sides. But
the number one. There's two two key points here. The

(17:17):
numbers matter. So like when sports mustile to come out
and say like are sharper accounts and these are accounts
that are that are respected and that they they'll move on.
And you know, you could come in just a guy
off the street or Floyd Mayweather and bet even way
bigger than some of these respect accounts and they're not
going to move off it. But these sharp accounts that win,

(17:37):
they'll they'll move the line or respect it. Based on
where some of these accounts are betting, but the number one.
The numbers matter, So like there was there was sharp
money on the Eagles, but that was you know, it
opened three and a half, it got up to six.
There all there will also was some sharp money that
came in on the forty nine ers. That's right, So

(18:00):
numbers matter, there's different entry points, and then there's also
gonna be conflicting. You know, some sharp groups might like
you know, like the Jags, but there was also some
short money that came into the Bills when they got
to plus two, plus two and a half. So all
that is just speaking in generals. But it was a
rough weekend for a lot of sharp betters and uh

(18:25):
including myself. But you know that's what happens in small,
small sample size. You really just try to get the
best of the number, which I did so I can't
complain too much. And then you're you're you're betting on
football games with small margins at an oblong ball. Sometimes
you're gonna get bounces, sometimes you're not. But yeah, that's
I would assume this week for the sharp sides, I

(18:48):
don't even know. I would assume, like New England that
under it opened under three. I'm there was probably some
sharp early money.

Speaker 2 (18:57):
Rams.

Speaker 1 (18:59):
Yeah, I think the Rams are probably gonna have more
sharp money there. And then Saturday, I don't I could see.
I think there's gonna be sharp money on both the
Buffalo and Denver and San fran Seattle. I think there
was early sharp money in Seattle, like just real early,

(19:20):
and then I could see some sharp money on like
San fram whenever it gets above seven, and then I
think inevitably it's gonna settle it at seven. But I
don't you might have. I think you have some sharp
money on the Denver Buffalo under which I like. And yeah,

(19:41):
other than that, there there obviously was sharp money on
the Rams bears under because that to move it from
it was backing off to fifty one and a half
and it came down to forty eight and a half.
It's a pretty substantial move, but these things can change
later in the week is limits could even higher, so we'll,
but last week it was it was rough for sharp

(20:03):
betters'll that'll that'll have one weekend a lot of avariants.

Speaker 2 (20:13):
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Speaker 2 (22:12):
Well let's just start with the bills, and I think
it's fair to say when you get a number like
this that hovers between you know, bills right now in
Hardrock Bet as if we're recording this on Wednesday, you
know are minus one on the road against Denver. The
numbers shifted around a little bit. But like you said
to me offline that the money line really reflects this

(22:32):
game as a coin flip game. You know, when you
look at Denver, even if I give them a pass,
let's just say for sake of argument, we removed the
Charger game. They're rolling out Trey Lance, who's probably not
two deep player in the NFL. The previous week they
played the Raiders on that whatever was it Christmas or
Christmas Eve division game, weird thing. Just let's say remove that.

(22:56):
The previous time when they played Jacksonville, which was a
massive game at the time, they kind of got worked
not kind of that they did. And their defense, you know,
like when you watch the Eagles or you watch Seattle,
there's a physicality to their defense. I think when you
watch Denver there's more speed oriented. And I just think

(23:16):
that like the question on Denver, Obviously, bo Nicks has
been the big kind of elephant in the room, but
if their defense isn't as dominant, like they don't look
like Houston or something. Right, now, did you go how
good is this team? The quarterback's never proven anything, and
he's been very iffy most of the season, and clearly
like he was trying in those last couple of games.

(23:37):
It didn't look great the Bills. We talked about it
last week. I just took Josh. It's been on Josh
and it worked. And I mean the difference in that game.
I thought Trevor was all over the place. Liam Cohen
probably should have ran the ball more. They were having
much success, I mean part of the deal against Buffalo.
And you saw this last year with your squad Baltimore,
like lean on physically they're not yea, yeah, what are

(24:00):
you guys doing? So I think this is a tough spot.
You know, Denver just they had a lot of question marks.
Now maybe just we look back in the year, they
answer them over the next couple of weeks and we
don't think about them like that. But I'm taking the Bills.
I'm just gonna hammer the money line in this game.
And just like I said last week, if they beat
this Jacks team, I'm just gonna hammer them till they lose.
And that's my mindset here. The other thing is, I

(24:22):
was at the dog park the other day and we
start talking to this lady and she comes up. She's like, Oh,
is your wife the one that's pregnant. I'm like yeah,
and we's like the guy was wearing a Broncos sweatshirt.
I'm like, oh, you're from Colorado. He's like, yeah, We've
lived there for forty years, right, we bought a house
here forever. We came over here during the winter, big
Bronco fans. I'm like, oh, it's probably cold, snowy week.
He's like, actually, I just text my son. It's sixty

(24:43):
degrees and I look today, the sun's gonna be out
and it's like in the fifties. So this is not
some frigid, cold Denver Bronco Mile High game. It's not
quite Jacksonville where people are in the pool, but at least,
based on what I saw, could be potentially a nice afternoon,

(25:03):
you know, day game. So that to me benefits Josh Allen,
does it not? So I'm taking the bills in this game.

Speaker 1 (25:11):
Yeah, I so I agree with that. The Broncos defense
is it's not as elite as Seattle and Houston. It's
very good, and they might get drag Green.

Speaker 2 (25:27):
Law back, which their physicality, yeah, which they need.

Speaker 1 (25:31):
I mean last year, So these teams met last year
in the playoffs and the Bills won thirty one seven
in the first round. The Broncos linebacker and corps. Linebacker
corps was decimated by injury that in game injuries, and
it wasn't as good as what it would be if
especially if Green laws back. And you know, they added Hufunga,

(25:53):
who provides some more physicality as well in the run game.
Now you're gonna have Locke, who is vulnerable at safety
because their start, their starting safety is out with an injury,
Brandon Jones. But yeah, this so and what happened in
that game is the Bills just ran all over them
and they just leaned on Denver. I don't think they'll

(26:14):
be able to do that as success successfully here. But
I do think that they'll have success running.

Speaker 2 (26:19):
The ball because they didn't really against Jacksonville, right, Cook
was kind of a non factor in that game.

Speaker 1 (26:24):
So, yeah, Jason Rundy has been e lead all year.
They had a top five Rundy. Now, on paper, the
Broncos have a top five run dye. But when they
stepped up and faced some teams that can run the ball,
like some of the top tier running teams, they didn't
face a lot they they weren't as dominant, so I
could see I think the Bills have to lean on
the ground game here. I'm so curious to see what

(26:44):
they do from because here, so for starters, I did
play the under. I don't blame you for taking I mean,
if you just need to win a game historically, like
on the money line as a dog or as a
favorite under a fueld goal, Josh Allen is, you know,
the just to win the game. Is the most profitable

(27:05):
quarterback in NFL history, and he just might be the
Mahomes of this year, right, like who cares I have
Josh Allen? Like? Right, but last year was you know,
nearest prior was just who cares live Patrick Mahomes. It's
like it didn't matter. You just bet the bet the
Chiefs to win the game. And that's basically what happened
last week, right, Like the Jags were they had the game,

(27:28):
but Josh Allen just despite all the injuries, he just
made plays when he had to at the end. And
that could happen here.

Speaker 2 (27:36):
Now do you agree to if they if they win
this game? So they've I mean the Jags obviously the
hottest team coming in the playoffs potentially in the league.
Then you go on the road to the number one seed,
beat him, and more likely, I guess Houston will get
into that game. Who beat the shit out of the
Bills early this season. Might be a tough matchup for him.
So actually it's it might not be as easy to

(27:56):
just be like they're just gonna win the super Bowl.
The Houston thing, well, I guess we'll get to that
in a minute. No, never mind, that's Houston's a tough
matchup for the Bills.

Speaker 1 (28:04):
Yeah, I mean going to going to New England wouldn't
wouldn't be easy. I mean both of those games were
very close during the year as far like Allen will
have to earn it because I know, I know that
there's no Mahomes, no Lamar, no Burrow in it. But
going on the road to Jacksonville, it's a shame for
jack that those teams had to play each other, because
both those teams could went to Super Bowl, and the
Jags got screwed. They win the division, they have to
play Buffalo Texans finished in second, get to play the Steelers,

(28:29):
but the Texans pass.

Speaker 2 (28:31):
Jags would have rather played the Steelers. They probably would
have won by the same margin.

Speaker 1 (28:34):
Absolutely, the Jags you know, when the the Bills played
the Falcons and lost the Texans, those pass rushers, they
they were able to get to Allen and give them
some issues. So maybe this Broncos pass rush can do
the same. Because it isn't a great matchup for the
Bills offense, They're not. Allen's numbers this year are significantly

(29:01):
worse against man coverage. Now last week he got to
face a zone heavy defense, and the reason for that
is it's not Josh Allen. It's that he doesn't have
receivers that can get any separation. So it's hard for
me to see their receivers getting and their receiving core
is decimated now. Like Curtis Samuel just got designated to
come back off IR, they're probably gonna need him. They

(29:22):
only had three as yesterday, only had three healthy receivers
on the roster. One of them is a guy who've
been healthy scratching. You know, Shakier has been good, but
McMillan's pretty good in the slot. And then you have
Certain I'm curious see what they do with him. I mean,
you use him on, like Kincaid said, sometimes because there's
just they're gonna be able to man up, load the box,
bring the blitz, and it's gonna be hard for Alan

(29:46):
to have enough time because his receivers just aren't gonna
get any separation because the Broncos are going to play
a ton of man. They blitz and it's just gonna
be tough. So the Bills are gonna lean on the
ground game here. It's gonna keep the clock moving. I'm
curious to see if they like completely switch it up,
if they go three, if they go like two three
tight end sets and and try to attack the linebackers

(30:09):
and the safeties of Denver. So I'm super curious to
see how they what they do schematically. If you got
to remember Josh Allen's also dealing with some injuries. On
a short week, we'll see how banged up he is.
He's gonna take hits against Denver. But the clock's gonna
be moving. I think they're gonna lean on the ground game,
especially early on, and then on the other side of
the ball, they could get at Oliver back as well.

(30:32):
He was just designated off. That would be big for
their defensive line. But McDermott usually does a good job
in game planning, scheming, disguising looks in these big, high
leverage games, they're gonna play a ton of too high.
They take away the explosive play. That's kind of what
bo Nicks does. It's but bo Nix will you know,
he's very inconsistent on a down the down basis. But

(30:54):
then we'll he'll hit the splash play every once in
a while. The Bills don't give that up. Play a
ton of too high against too high, Knicks doesn't really
take chances. He's the lowest yards per attempt in the league.
He's gonna take those short passes. I also think Peyton
is gonna rely on his defense, which means he's gonna
heavy dose of run here. He knows that's where the
Bills are the weakest. He's usually smart about that. So

(31:15):
I think both teams are gonna be running a ton,
relying on field position. Clock will be running.

Speaker 2 (31:21):
This is a great game. This is a great game.

Speaker 1 (31:23):
Yeah, it'll be good. So I bet the under the Bill.
I think the Bill's only goal is Knicks is gonna
use his legs here. The Bills struggle with can struggle
with mobile quarterbacks. I think the Bill's only goal is,
you know, try to run the ball. Keep the game
close until the fourth quarter, and then you have Josh Allen.

(31:46):
They have bow knicks, and uh, you just want to
be in a position where Josh Allen needs to go
win the game, and more times than not, he's gonna
go do that. But I think this will be lower
scoring field position battle, especially early on.

Speaker 2 (32:16):
One thing I was told and forty nine er players
have been saying, I mean it goes back to the
Atlanta Falcons. That what one of Kyle's strengths is during
the week when he does these game plans, he's so
good at dissecting the defense. When he tells, you get
to this spot, it'll be wide open. Run this play
at this time, it'll work. And he's kind of a
genius like that because he's really he has a great

(32:37):
mind on the defensive side of the ball. So when
you do something like Fangio. One thing I think they
felt after the game is like we kind of knew
where they were going to line up. Obviously they have
good players, but we weren't getting tricked by stuff. And
the thing that happened in that Seattle game a couple
of weeks ago, you know, from just some some sources,
is and I think this is what makes Mike so
specially he's been doing it. You know, his whole career

(32:59):
is they dot they would get something, and guys would
be in completely different spots once the ball was snapped,
and his deciphering and disguising shit was all over the place.
But I'm not even talking about the D line whooping
the old line. I'm just talking about in coverage. Guys
are all over the map when the forty nine ers
have game planned against something else. So I mean, Perty's
going back there thinking X and he's getting why, and

(33:20):
it really threw them off ward. Against Fangio, they went
back to seeing X and they were getting X. He
they just had to execute it. So, you know, I
think they can prepare. You know, obviously they got screwed
a little bit by the timing. Right, ideally you'd play Sunday.
They've kind of got a couple of short weeks, but
like they don't really have like the prep's already done, right,
they just played him Sunday. The Seattle didn't play an

(33:42):
extra game, So really they can double down and like
what could we have done a little different and like
build off what we thought coming into that game and
make adjustment. It's kind of a unique spot for the
forty nine ers from a game plan perspective in a
shitty week, because they just probably had an incredible game
plan playing for the number one seed that didn't work,
and then they can kind of pivot off that where Seattle.

(34:04):
You know, it's like you just you know you're gonna
get some different swings now from them that you just saw.
So I I think the forty nine ers to have
a chance in this game. And to me, the key
is someone asked me, it's like, well, the two guys
ran for one hundred and seventy yards and there was
a point in that Eagle game when it was thirteen
to seven Eagles, they had the ball and the time
possession was like eighteen to six. I was like, the

(34:26):
Niners are in trouble.

Speaker 1 (34:27):
Yeah, the Eagles just went on a nine minute touchdown.

Speaker 2 (34:31):
If that takes place in Seattle, they will lose the
time possession thing again. So you just have to get
for some more punts and not just give them drives
even if they're not scoring points that just last seven
eight minutes, because then that puts so much pressure. If
you go three and out, it feels like a disastrous quarter.
So I do think Kyle, this is a game again.
It's like can you run a fake field goal or

(34:52):
fake punt? Like you're gonna have to do one of those.
You probably can't run the wide receiver pass again. But
I do think the forty nine ers are pretty live
dog in this spot. And let's face it, you know,
there is a ton of pressure on Sam in this
game to just like he played really well last week
or whenever they won thirteen to three. I know they
didn't score many points, but he was twenty twenty six.
He was efficient. He was just completely under control. If

(35:15):
he plays again like that and their defense plays, they'll win.
But like we've seen Sam in a couple of these
high leverage spots and it didn't go as well. Now,
did the forty nine ers have the defense to really,
you know, kind of put him on tilt? I don't know,
But to me, it starts with can you just neutralize
the run game? Because if you remove the first run
of the game or Saquon win, I think for like
thirty yards, he really had twenty five carries for like

(35:35):
seventy yards, Like you live with that all day. It
was just the over and over in that Saturday night
game of just the five seven five, It's like it
just kills you. So to me stop the run, It's like, Okay,
Sam throw for two hundred and fifty three hundred yards.

Speaker 1 (35:53):
I can't wait for this game now. My favorite part
about the playoffs is from a football fan perspective, is
the coaching matchup. And to look at the NFC, I mean,
you have Ben Johnson versu mcaday, and you have Kyle
versus MacDonald.

Speaker 2 (36:08):
And if we had a coaching draft, I mean, would
you say these four guys would go in the top six?

Speaker 1 (36:14):
Yes, yeah, for sure?

Speaker 2 (36:15):
After if you just if you just say, hey, age
doesn't matter. Let's say Andy goes one, would these get
Would these be the next four picks in some order?

Speaker 1 (36:24):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (36:25):
I get Mike's a defensive guy, but I think he
still ain't falling far.

Speaker 1 (36:29):
Yeah, let me look at the If Kevin.

Speaker 2 (36:33):
O'Connell would go high, Rabel would go in the top ten,
Demiko would be a sleeper defensive guy that would go high,
high level guy, all.

Speaker 1 (36:49):
Four of them for anyone else, I think at the moment,
although I do think now he's still new to the job,
but I do think very, very highly of Liam Cohen.
So he but I mean it's only one years.

Speaker 2 (37:10):
He'd go hid Sirianni go top twenty, you think, or.

Speaker 1 (37:13):
I don't know. I mean, like what does what does
ser Like I struggle with how valuable is Sirianni? Like
what does he do? Right? Like he won a Super
Bowl and you have to give him credit for that,
but like he had, right, two really good coordinators. He
has one of the most talented rosters. Is the organization
is run very well. You have a great GM, so

(37:38):
much talent on that roster. What does he really do?
He's supposed to be an offensive guy, so you don't
have the coordinator this year and the offense falls apart.
Like if you remove him from that team last year,
did they still win the Super Bowl? Maybe? I do
think he's pretty sharp with like some in game stuff

(38:00):
and understanding like game and time and clock management. But
I wouldn't have him near the top. So but yeah,
these coaching matchups are awesome. So I kind of wanted
to when these two teams met in week eighteen. When
I was saw him on this game, I told you,
I like the under it was that opened at like fifty.

(38:21):
I was like, that's way too high for these teams,
and it came down to like forty seven and a
half I think, But now this total is that like
forty four and a half. I'm thinking I kind of
want to bet the over. I think it's come down
a bit too much. But this will all come down
to the battle between Shanahan and McDonald. And what I

(38:43):
mean by that is that if McDonald dominates. Because McDonald
came out he said, well, he has some other looks
that he has in his back pocket that he didn't
show in the Week eighteen game. So there you're gonna
get some other looks here. So can Shanahan anticip based
on what they saw in week eighteen that they weren't expecting,
what newde is McDonald have? What does Shanahan have to

(39:03):
kind of counteract that? And can the forty nine ers
hit some explosive plays and move the ball through the air. Right,
you're gonna have Trent Williams this time around, but you're
not gonna have Kittle. You could have Ricky Pearsall, which
would be massive. Do you think he's gonna play.

Speaker 2 (39:18):
I would not be confident.

Speaker 1 (39:19):
Yeah, that's what I figured, But he was these two deer.
Remember these two teams played in Week one and both
the times they played, the scores are super low scoring,
but there's been a bunch of scoring opportunities and where
no one scored.

Speaker 2 (39:34):
Like Kittle missed the majority of that game.

Speaker 1 (39:37):
Right, Yeah, Kittle got hurt in that series and Party
threw for what three sixty I think.

Speaker 2 (39:42):
And good, what's the what's the weather this week? There?

Speaker 1 (39:47):
I think it's gonna be fine. Okay, so piersall had
but Pearsall had a big Dad. I think you had
four catches for one to ten in that game. But
if the forty nine ers, so, what you can cross
all here is the forty nine ers will not be
able to run the ball. That's just gonna be a fact.

(40:11):
Number one. Seattle's run defense is historically good. They're the
best run defense in the NFL by a wide margin.
You can't run on them. No one can run on them.
It's almost impossible. Now you're gonna have to still do
it some. But they're not gonna success running ball, especially naw,
they don't Kittle, who's one of your keys to your
run game. But you'll have Williams this time around. Party

(40:34):
should have a bit more time, can he avoid the mistakes, right,
I think he has seven. I think he's made a
ton of mistakes whenever he's faced McDonald defense. Go back
to that Ravens Niners game that costs them then four picks. Yeah,
So can he avoid the mistakes? Like we get teeny
throw a pick, but that was tipped and then bounced
off McCaffrey's arms. But can he move the ball through

(40:56):
the air against this complex changing that's gonna come down
to Shanahan has dialed up where he has identified the
potential weaknesses are in that coverage, Like there was definitely
some certain areas of the field that he identified against
that Fangio defense that they took advantage of on the
left side, and it was a beautiful game plan. And
I agree with you, they're gonna have to get aggressive

(41:18):
and then try some trick plays. And so if they're
able to do that and you know, score and put
touchdowns on the board, then that puts pressure on Sam
Darnold to have to throw the ball and then he
could make mistakes. The problem is the fort As don't
get a ton of pressure. So I'm also curious to

(41:40):
see how to Sola play this. The Seahawks should should
have their left tackle back. They could get a Royal
back at tight end who kind of helps stretch defense
as a bunch. But the Seattle offense hasn't been great
for you know, a month and a half. Their offense
has been solved a bit. But this does Sala say,
I'm just gonna play. They played too high on sixty

(42:00):
seven percent of their snapskn Siquals played a ton of
quarters coverage. They we're just trying to take away the
explosive plays. They know their defense doesn't have a ton
of talent, so it's like prevent the explosive plays. Well,
we're just gonna stop you in the red zone, hope
you make a mistake and then you know, we just
don't want to give up those big plays. Does he
take that same approach or does he bring his safeties
more down and try to stop that run game because

(42:21):
Seattle was doing whatever it wanted on the ground that so,
but it all comes down to what that Kyle versus
McDonald chess match, Because if if Kyle's able to move
the ball and is able, you know, to identify some
of those weaknesses, then this is gonna be I think
this game of wover and there could be like twenty seven.

(42:43):
I could see being twenty seven to twenty. I could
see the forty nine's on the shot to pull off
the upset. But if Channan's, if they're not able to
move the ball and perty's under pressure, and I know
they're not going to be able to run the ball,
what McDonald will do is park it, and he's gonna
tell he's he knows. I don't. I My defense is
dominating this game. I'm not letting Donald lose it. And

(43:06):
then they're just gonna run it, and then they're gonna
you're gonna have these long drives and then the over
is gonna have no chance, and they're just gonna say
look now.

Speaker 2 (43:14):
And he's the most conservative coach, doesn't go for it
on fourth downs, kicksfield goals.

Speaker 1 (43:18):
So this is all that's gonna dictate the side. If
the forty nine's had a chance, that's that chess match.
How's it gonna play? I don't know.

Speaker 2 (43:25):
I'm taking that. I'm taking the Niners seven points and
that's I mean, this game was what two and a half,
a couple of weeks ago. I think obviously we witnessed
that game. It was like Jesus Now, Trent didn't play pleasants,
getting you know, spun like a draidal a party. By
the end of the game, it felt like, God is
He's gonna die in this game. So that's it's part

(43:46):
of it. Uh. The forty nine ers when they're O
line does play bad. It does feel like they can
get physically overwhelmed. And this is one of the units
that God, they've they've been good. So to me, it's like,
can you just neutralize that front a little bit. They
always say party's gonna have to run around no matter
who they play, But like, if it's just if it
looks like Aaron Rodgers against the Texas, yeah they're gonna
get killed, right, and the score might not even reflect

(44:07):
quote unquote killed. It could be like seventeen to seven
final score, but it'll just be like a bludgeoning, you know, Yeah, and.

Speaker 1 (44:13):
You'll feel like they have no chance to win it.
But yeah, Shanahan just has to draw. He has to
find a way like he did last week against a
team that doesn't give up exposed to plays like Seattle.
Find ways. It would be a big boost of pure
so could play and look healthy. But with Robinson Jennings.
I'm sure there's gonna be a ton of designed stuff

(44:34):
for McCaffrey out of the backfield, and then Herdy just
has to avoid forcing throws. Now, it's a fine balance.
You want to you got to hit some exposures. You're
not going to run the ball, but the Seattle defense
will take it away and they'll score. So uh yeah,
early in this game will tell you because if the
forty nine ers are struggling, this game is gonna die

(44:55):
because the Shawks are just gonna run it totally and
then punt it and rely on their day and field
goals and no to.

Speaker 2 (45:02):
Shaheed too is a little bit of a curveball right
as a return many last week, Brian Robinson like barely
was making it to the twenty five like they were
kicking it to him. Sky Moore had won it. It did
not go well. I mean, part of it was like
they were starting like old school long NFL drives. They
didn't have any like oh, got to the forty you know.
I was like that that they're gonna need a little

(45:24):
bit more juice on especially if Jason let's say Myers
kicks like three field goals, like you're gonna get some
kickoff return opportunities. The Robinson thing, I don't know what
was going on, but he was going nowhere. He was
running the back of guys like bro, this is this
is a game that's gonna be decided by a couple
of yards here. This is not gonna work out. And
if Shaheed gives them some explosive plays and all of

(45:45):
a sudden they gotta drive from the fifty. It's shit
like that you're talking about that these games all come
down to small margins. That something I noticed big time,
Like this is not ideal here.

Speaker 1 (45:54):
Yeah, the Jets somehow had a historically good special teams
this year. It's the only thing they did well. If
Folk is a kicker, really good return units, coverage units.
The Seahawks were right behind them. If you look at
a lot of the overall metrics, there are special teams
that are very very good. I think the forty nine
ers were around league average, but that could be some

(46:14):
hidden edge for Seattle. But Kyle has to be aggressive here.
I can't wait for the chess match like whenever you
doubt like Chanaan, Yeah in the playoffs, Yeah, so I
don't blame you for taking the points here.

Speaker 2 (46:29):
Nine and four in the playoffs, and a lot of those.
This isn't like the Belichick you know, Brady Patriots. They
were underdogs and a lot of those wins. Right, Yeah,
So it's and pretty not like you know, coin flip games.
These were like over a field goal underdogs, you know,
at Dallas, at Green Bay, at Philly. I mean those
were games that most Niner fans like, yeah, I'm probably

(46:50):
not gonna win. You know. It's like that's and that's
what makes a great coach when people like, yeah, I'm
probably not gonna win, and then you get to the
point where it's like you just can't doubt the guy
because his team. So I don't know mentally what the
preparation going into the game, there's like a belief and
then you just got to make the game weird. So
it's just a great game. It really is. To me,
it's the best game of the weekend.

Speaker 1 (47:10):
Yeah, I can't I can't wait for it. The other
thing is Donald struggles more against too high, which you assume.
So he ran a ton of That's usually what he
wants to do. Take away explosive, but then you'll leave
yourself vulnerable to the run game. So that you obviously
don't just run nothing. But to Islo, classic Can was
sixty six percent, but I'm curious to see that percentage.
But if the forty nine is able to score, you

(47:31):
make Donald have to throw and be more aggressive, and
then in those zones he's more likely to make a mistake,
and that's where you can really win this game. So
you'll know early on in this game how it's gonna go.

Speaker 2 (47:43):
I'm not overthinking the same time, I'm taking the Texans. Obviously,
CJ makes you a little nervous. I was looking at
all the games they played and I was like, if
you remove the Chargers, who's the best defense that the
Patriots had played? I mean they got the Browns in
New England.

Speaker 1 (48:00):
Yeah, Brown's the stand away from home.

Speaker 2 (48:02):
No, so it's like not really anybody. And that game
was weird last week. If Herbert hadn't played, I mean,
that's as bad as it gets. It was nine to
three going to the fourth quarter, and your quarterback, fifty
million dollar guy that a lot of people like myself defend,
it's just playing a game like he's fucking Deshaun Kaiser
or something. You're like, what is going on here? And

(48:22):
it was still nine to three. Vrabel has done an
incredible job. The future is bright. They're gonna have aj
Brown on the team next year. Probably they'll be fine,
and they're gonna be legit sua well contender and yours.
I just don't know if they are right now. And
Drake Drake was really good in the second half. And
obviously the home field advantage New England is the fans
show they're up, they're used to winning. Play's gonna be rocking.

(48:45):
But that that Houston defense, I mean, if the Neil
Hunter is gonna look like Lawrence Taylor, and you also
have Will Anderson and the team speed they have in
the secondary, Petrie probably one of the more fun players
in the league. Throwback to a guy like we grew
up on. There are a bunch of guys like that
in the league that would just could do it all
and be fucking knock the shit out of you. Who
fungus kind of like that too, but Petrie feels like

(49:06):
a little bit more dynamic in the open field. This again, though,
I mean if their quarterback against the Patriots has four
fumbles and a half, loses a couple and throws a
pick that it's just hits a guy in the numbers, Yeah,
they'll lose. And to me, Demko is sitting them down.
Like CJ. You the number two pick in the draft
to come from Ohio State, you were a star player.
We need you to play like trend Deil for a

(49:26):
Brad johnsonbody like, let's let's calm it down a little bit.
It's on the offensive coordinator to Miko, just we don't
need you to play hero ball because our defense is
poised to just carry us. And if you're gonna run
the ball like that, it's like CJ. No turnovers. He
I feel like he plays like a guy trying to
prove he's a star. It's like, bro, they don't need
this right now. Perty got fifty million dollars a year

(49:46):
by just just do what the court coach tells you
to do. Also, it wasn't his fault when you run
a flee If I say, hey, a team runs a
flea flicker, don't you usually think about that like later
in the game after you establish the run. Isn't that
part of the play. Yes, you don't run in the
first quarter.

Speaker 1 (50:02):
No, that was bizarre. I had no idea on this game,
to be honest, I part of it is I struggled
to what to make of the pass because of their schedule.
They had the easiest schedule of any team over the
past thirty years. Now they finally so. They played no
defenses with a pulse until the Chargers, the first top

(50:22):
ten defense they played. Texans are another level and their
offense struggled like may fumbled it a couple times, throw
a pick. It wasn't the same smooth operation as you
would expect as when they stepped up in class. The
same to be set of their defense, which hasn't They
played like the only offense with a pole. Like the
quarterbacks they faced over the course of the season, it

(50:43):
was rookies, backups, guys who were benched in like eleven
of the of their womins. They faced Allen twice, they
split right and they got torched in the second game.
They didn't really face any other good quarterbacks. Then they
faced Herbert, and Herbert is a top ten back, many
have him the top five, and they shut him down. Now,

(51:05):
was that the Chargers offensive line and Herbert? But that
could look the same here. The Texans offensive line isn't great,
their running game isn't great, and you know Stroud could
struggle in the pocket. You could have a similar game
plan here, you know, blitz heavy. Stroud struggles against the blitz,
and this Texans offense could look broken as it does

(51:26):
at times. You got to remember, I mean remember the
Steelers defense has been pretty bad all year. But I
just don't know enough about it because I also saw
Herbert missing throws and missing guys that were over.

Speaker 2 (51:37):
Guys were open, he's over, He's airmailing them by like
ten feet.

Speaker 1 (51:41):
Wasn't even close. So even that game is hard for
me to really measure what this Pats is. Now, they
do a good job of these guys and coverages and
changing things. Now, Christian Gonzalez, they don't have depth at corner.
If he's out with concussion, and then you also have
the Nico Collins thing, I think it would hurt the
Pats more if Gonzalez is out. I think there's a
more higher chance that Collins is out short week. It
looked bad, but when he was out earlier this year,

(52:03):
they developed some depth at wide receiver. But this basically
just comes down to how dominant can the Texans defense be,
Like they have the defense that can carry them to
a Super Bowl. Imagine if we get Houston Seattle Super
Bowl what that total would be. So but they have

(52:26):
the defense that can carry them to a super Bowl.
How many plays can they make? I mean, had two
defensive touchdowns last week? Margins are thin. This totals forty one.
This line's trending to three and a half at that point,
I think you have to look at Houston. I just
don't have a great feel on this Pats team just
because of the lack of data points against strong competition,

(52:49):
and it just might be a struggle for this Houston
offense because the Pats can employ that same game plan
as last week, and you know, having Nego Collins will
not having Nico Collins would would definitely hurt their their
playmaking ability. But this will just come down to how
good I can't wait to watch another great chestments is Drake.
May you know number one in e paper drop back

(53:12):
versus this Houston pass defense, which is historically good. Number
one ePaper drop back allowed how much pressure because the
pressure could just be overwhelming on that end as well.
You saw the Chargers. The Chargers are not an elite
defense in terms of getting pressure, and they were in
the backfield all day I think they had five or

(53:33):
six stacks always looked like an All Pro, and their
rookie tackle Will Campbell looked.

Speaker 2 (53:41):
Rough shove him back a lot.

Speaker 1 (53:44):
You know, this is another step up in class the
Texans pass rush, So how may handles that will be
interesting to see. But yeah, if you want to take
the points here with you know that defense in which
should be a lower scoring affair, I will. I won't
talk you off, bit I just don't have a strong feel.

Speaker 2 (54:03):
My logic on the Bears is simple. They could be
down twenty in the second half and you look up
an hour later in the games in overtime. So I'm
just taking them in the points. I mean, it just
it feels like the football gods are just hanging out
in their locker room this year. I mean, they score
twenty five points in the fourth quarter, they're down twenty
one to three and a half, and then they come
back and win the game outright. I mean, it's just

(54:23):
that stadium, it's just a lover of atmospheres. Looks incredible
on television. I mean, that place is rocking. It just
feels a little more potent than like what we saw
with the Commanders. I think they're a little bit better,
but defensively, same type thing. They're just not very good.
They can't cover a soul, which you would think in
theory is not good against Puka. Nakua's probably the best

(54:46):
receiver in the league so far this year, and Davante's back.
The tight ends can all catch. I mean, their running
backs are good, but stafford Man just has these weird stretches.
It's gonna be cold. I'm just taking the Bears in
the points. Don't feel right about it, but how can
you go against them right now? With the way that
everything keeps shaking out every single game.

Speaker 1 (55:08):
It's it's insane. I what I played here, this total
came down a bit. It's hard for me to see
either one of these defenses getting stops. I played some
rams over twenty six and a half points, so over
twenty six and a half their team total. This is
a team versus if you remove the nine, if you

(55:29):
remove the top five defenses from their schedule, so Seattle,
Houston and Philly, I mean, then they scored twenty six
versus Philly and we missed two field goals. They averaged
thirty two and a half points per game. They got
the twenty seven and eleven of the fourteen and a
couple of them they just didn't have to and one
of them against Seattle, they put up thirty eight and.

Speaker 2 (55:49):
They led the league in scoring anyway, right with the factory,
and so I.

Speaker 1 (55:52):
Think they get the twenty seven plus. I mean, this
is a Bears defense that's you know, twenty eighth PVOA,
twenty six, success rate, thirtieth and epa. If you remove turnovers,
their turnover luck is extreme. It's not gonna last forever.
They're twenty third points allowed despite leading the lead league
in turnover margin. Additionally, you know you have there is

(56:14):
some concern with the Stafford finger and then the in
the cold, the Adams handstring. In the cold, you're gonna
see a lot of stats of Stafford has struggled historically
in the cold, like his win loss recer. But a
lot of those games were when he was with a
bad Lions team. Remember last year he almost beat the
Super Bowl champion in Philly in the snow, and he
looked great. I don't it's hard for him.

Speaker 2 (56:36):
Because he had the Ravens game a couple of years ago,
remember when he was unreal. I mean, it's like one
of the best games I've ever seen. Definitely the last
like five years is as good of a game as
you're gonna see. I know he didn't the end it
on a pick, but he was fantastic in that game.

Speaker 1 (56:47):
Yeah, they should have won that game. So I think
he'll be fine. This Bears defense, they don't get pressure.
They're now missing t. J. Edwards as well at linebacker.
Their depth of linebackers really shaky. They really just can't
get any Their rundy is really really bad. One of
my favorite props. I like some Korm props, but Korm
over eleven and a half longest rush he's I mean,

(57:12):
he's had I think twenty three rushes of ten plus yards,
one carry at least twelve yards, and ten of the
seventeen games that he's played, if you're a movie opener,
only had one carry and that's despite not getting an
increased workload until like Week seven. But Kevin Dotson I
think is going to be back. That's huge. He's one
of the best run blocking offensive linemen in the NFL.

(57:32):
They missed him down the stretch. That'll help their run game,
and the Bears give up tons of run explosives. One
of the worst defenses in the league at giving up
big runs. So yeah, I think that they'll I like
that Korm. I think the Bears allowed a run of
twelve plus and fifteen of the eighteen games to non quarterbacks.

(57:54):
Multiple backs in the same game got a run of
twelve plus yards in seven of their eighteen games, and
like the teams that didn't were like the Browns. Even
though Shador standers said a twenty yard run, they just
I mean Gino Smith had a twenty yard run against them.
So I think Korm can have a big day here.
I like his longest rush over eleven and a half.

(58:16):
I like the Rams to score, but you're right, I
could the Bears match them is there's some Bears magic
and you have these two offensive gurus going up against
vulnerable defenses. I think it's gonna be a ton of
explosive plays, which is good for an over so I
don't I think this total has come down a bit
too much. Now. I get it's gonna be like freezing cold.
Both teams could rely on the run a bit more,

(58:39):
but not enough people are talking about the Rams defense
has dropped off significantly over the first twelve weeks of
the year. They were number one in EPA per play,
But I kept saying, like, I think this defense is
a bit overrated, because I don't believe we were saying this.
We don't believe, really believe in their secondary, which is
the weak point. They were number one of the EPA

(59:01):
play But you gotta remember they played the Bucks, and
the Bucks offense was bad from Week seven off if
Baker got hurt, right and that game was just a joke.
They played the Ravens when it was Cooper Rush. They
played Stroud when like two of his offensive in Week
one and two of his offensive linemen got ruled out
right before the game, they had to shuffle everyone around.
They played cam Warden, the second start Spencer Rattler, so

(59:23):
like the first you know, half of the season, they
benefited from a lot of opposing quarterback and offensive line situations.
And then over the final seven games. Over the last
seven games, including last week in the Wildcard, they're twentieth
in EPA per play. And they faced the Panthers twice
and the Cardinals twice, so it's not like they were

(59:46):
facing nothing, but these elite offensive teams, they're giving up
a ton of explosive plays. The secondary is vulnerable. The
Bears can hit those, So yeah, I think the Rams
can do whatever they want here, Like they can run
the ball, they could go heavy personnel. The Bears struggle
in that aspect as well, but Caleb Williams keeps improving

(01:00:07):
this Ben Johnson offense. I think he's gonna be aggressive
as well in like fourth downs. I think the Bacon
hit explosives keep the pressure on Los Angeles. So yeah,
don't don't doubt the Bears every one. I always sweet
Every Bears game is the same, but I did play
some Rams team total over some and then some corn

(01:00:29):
props should be a go on though again between two
awesome offensive mines.

Speaker 2 (01:00:49):
Well, I won't talk to you until after the National
Championship game. It feels like there are like two plays.
Indiana blows out basically everybody except Ohio State. So it's
like just take down and the points eight and a
half and they'd win by fifteen twenty points. Or it's
like take Miami money line, like cause if the game's closed,
like Miami would have a chance to win, right, But

(01:01:11):
it's like, do I trust Mario's team with a bunch
of penalties? I guess the players just take Indiana in
this spot though, It's like, is it just gonna turn
out to be? They played in the playoffs and blew
everyone out after playing that close game against Olio State.

Speaker 1 (01:01:29):
Yeah, this is a tough game. I mean, I make it.
I make this spread down. I'm just I've been aggressively
up upgrading Indiana. I make this spread ten on a
neutral But I'm struggling to determine what do I make
the home field advantage here? So, like I don't think
it's a full home field advantage, so I don't know.

(01:01:50):
I'm using like a point and a half, so like
I make it like eight and a half, which is
where it is. But I don't know how like what
the home field should be here, Like they are playing
at home, but I imagine, like this is Indiana's all in year.
They have the largest alumni base of any school in
the country, so this crowd is going to be I

(01:02:10):
don't know, split, So Miami's technically the road team, which
was funny. So I don't really know what make home
field but this this just could be a scenario. Every
once in a while in college football, you have a
team where the market never catches up to twenty nineteen LSU.

(01:02:31):
Every week you were talking about the sharps are you
would have sharps. The sharp's even bet against LSU and
the championship against Clemson, there was a lot of sharp
money against LSU again, and all this team would do
was cover, cover, cover. I lost a lot of money
betting against.

Speaker 2 (01:02:44):
F ther I don't even remember. They blew Clemson out
in that game.

Speaker 1 (01:02:47):
Blew them out. Yeah, they were blowing every They blew
everybody out, even though their defense was bad, and that's
what a lot of people are seeing. But their offense
was just so good it didn't matter.

Speaker 2 (01:02:55):
It turns out they had Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson and
Joe Burrow, like, yeah, pretty good combo.

Speaker 1 (01:03:00):
Pretty decent. So but yeah, the market just could never
catch up to how good they were. And that just
might be the case for Indiana. That's my my fear
for I don't think Miami's gonna be able to like
they might be to run the ball a little bit.
I played the under here. I played on some under
forty and a half under forty eight I did. Both
these teams are very slow. I do have a lot

(01:03:22):
of respect for the Miami defense. I do think that
they'll be able to get some pressure. That that right
side of the Indiana offensive line is a bit vulnerable.
The Miami defense is real, and then the Indiana defense,
they're so buttoned up it's very hard to consistently run
against them. Carson Beck has not been great in the playoff.
Why he doesn't gonna do much, It's really on the defense.

(01:03:43):
But I think this will be more of a rock
fight type of game, lower scoring, there's no reason. There's
no need for Indiana to run it up at the
end like to show off, which sometimes comes into play
in their games. But I think I think this will
be more of a defensive game, field position game. The temph,

(01:04:03):
the pace will be very slow. Miami's going to play
how Miami does. They're going to want to just run, run,
control the clock, play field position, rely on that defense.
But I think Indiana will get Beck into just too
many known passing downs and then their pressure packages. Miami
is a really good offensive line that's a great battle watch,

(01:04:25):
but their pressure and blitz packages are incredible, and Beck
is not good under pressure. So I think it's going
to be a struggle for the Miami offense. So I
did play the under I think I'm spot on with
the number. I couldn't talk anyone out. I've heard good
cases for Miami and good cases for Indiana. It just
comes down to how historically dominant this Indiana team is.

(01:04:47):
But my biggest fear is what you brought up. Indiana
is so buttoned up that they're just execution monsters. Yeah,
and I mean on third down. Their third down offense
is historically good fifty five percent. That's a range you
rarely see, like five or six teams over the past
ten years. Their giveaway, they never turned the ball over,

(01:05:09):
they never get penalized. And this is a Miami team
that's undisciplined, right outside the top one hundred penalties back
at times can put the ball on Harm's way.

Speaker 2 (01:05:23):
So that well, their whole thing is like violent or crazy,
we're tough, where Signette's like, we're like the Navy Seals
were dialed. We execute, we don't fuck around. He doesn't
he doesn't use violent like Mario's uses violence every time
he talks. Signetti's much more like execution like Nick right,
And then the violence is just part of that the
way they play, but they the coaches talk dramatically different

(01:05:47):
like Mario looks like he wants to get in at
this fight, where Signetti looks like he wants to get
into a chess match.

Speaker 1 (01:05:53):
Yep. So now it's very well put so that might
end up being the difference.

Speaker 2 (01:05:58):
But in fairness, Mario does have a Island team too,
so it's like they can physically hang like they're not
going to be shoved around. They're like Ohio State, right
where physically they're not going to be intimidated by and
get shoved around by Indiana like Bam and Oregon did.

Speaker 1 (01:06:10):
Yeah, I think this game is gonna play out more
like Ohia. It's gonna play out similar to Ohio State Indiana.

Speaker 2 (01:06:16):
Then Miami would have a chance if they don't have
like ten penalties right.

Speaker 1 (01:06:19):
Yes, or Beck doesn't turn it over, like they have
to play clean to win this game, which you can't have,
you know, one hundred and eight penalty yards and you
can't turn the ball over. So I think they're going
to be cautious as long as like this game is
close playfield position, I think both defenses will give each

(01:06:40):
opposing offense some issues. Now, Indiana seems they seemingly never
drop a contested catch. I mean Sarad is incredible. This
Becker kid has really come on as a fantask threat,
which is added another layer to their offense. But yeah,
I played some under. I played some Mendoza under rushing

(01:07:00):
yards like eighteen and a half. The you'll try to
scramble some, but I mean the Miami defense has allowed
They played fourteen games against FBS opponents. Opposing quarterbacks have
ran it one hundred and twenty seven times for fourteen yards,
so that obviously includes sacks. But they've given up fourteen

(01:07:23):
total rushing yards. And they played you know, Watson and Drones.
At Votec. They played Byron Brown, who had a thousand
yards rushing for USF. They played the Syracuse guys who
could run. They played Costianos of Florida State. They played Chamblis.
I mean Chamblas had seven yards rushing. They played a
ton of Marcel Reid, so they played a ton of

(01:07:48):
mobile quarterbacks. They give up fourteen yards. That includes a
ton of sacks. Now Mendoza had but he averaged like
eight do you average like eighteen and a half per game,
which is where this line is set. But he was
only sacked like one plus one point four times, per game.

(01:08:09):
I think that could go up to like three or
four and you could get some major negative sack yard.
I mean he went up against Wisconsin, he had six
rushes for negative twenty four yards. He was sacked five times.
Against Ohio State, he was sacked three times, ended with
negative three rushing yards. So yeah, I played some under
rushing yards there surat anytime touchdown if you're looking for

(01:08:32):
like a part of any time, probably pace. But that's
around even money. He got scores everything every week. I
think he scored like ten weeks in a row. Hit
that back shoulder. It's like a cheat code. But yeah,
I'm struggling what to do with home field. So but
I think I'm close to the line. I won't bet Miami.
They're like, I wouldn't even bet Miami if it's ten.

(01:08:52):
I would need more than ten because I've just seen
I've seen Indiana and they just feel to me like
a team that you don't want to get in front of.
So even if Miami went, I won't have any regret
if Miami covers or were wins that I didn't fade Indiana.
So yeah, if you made me better, I bet Indiana.
But I do like the under I like it.

Speaker 2 (01:09:13):
I think I'm gonna take Indiana. Okay, sucky. I got
my wife screaming. I mean I got to help get
ready for this, uh, this endeavor we're about to take
off on. So I'll be joining you soon into the
fatherhood category. And enjoy the rest of the week and
enjoy the games and I will talk to you soon.

Speaker 1 (01:09:29):
Yeah, good luck which you all good health, And enjoy
the NFL playoffs from the hospital speed. It feels like
like like a camp. Yeah, so enjoy it, but I
hope everything goes well. And talk to you next week. Brother.

Speaker 2 (01:09:46):
I appreciate it. See it

Speaker 1 (01:09:51):
The volume