Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Lamar Jackson Is “1 of 1”, Saquon For MVP? Sean Payton Found His Next Drew Brees, Betting NFL Week 13

Colin’s top takes of the week!

He starts with Lamar Jackson putting on a clinic against the Chargers on Monday Night Football and explains why Lamar is “1 of 1” at the position (3:30). Then, he reacts to the Eagles beatdown of the Rams powered by a career night for Saquon Barkley and argues that Saquon should be in MVP contention (16:30).

He’s joined by John Middlekauff, host of “3 and Out” to break down why the 49ers need to enter rebuild mode (27:15), why Sean Payton has found his next Drew Brees in rookie QB Bo Nix (34:30) and why quarterbacks Bryce Young and Will Levis have earned the opportunity to start for another year (46:00)

Finally, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 13 of the NFL slate!

57:30 - Steelers vs Bengals

59:00 - Cardinals vs Vikings

1:01:30 - 49ers vs Bills

1:03:15 - Titans vs Commanders

1:06:30 - Texans vs Jaguars

1:08:30 - Chargers vs Falcons

1:10:45 - Seahawks vs Jets

1:13:00 - Buccaneers vs Panthers

1:14:30 - USC vs Notre Dame

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.

Speaker 2 (00:04):
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You know I could really be obnoxious. You guys have

(01:07):
been banging on Lamar Jackson for so many years. You
want to know what Lamar Jackson is after a loss.
The last three seasons ten and one, sixteen touchdowns, four picks,
and there are just certain arguments you just got to
give up on. He's really good. Does this count as
a big win? This felt like a big game for me.

(01:29):
Monday night football John versus Jim Harbor. I felt like
a kind of a big win. I lose track. I'm
trying to keep track of all the big wins and
not big wins for Lamar Jackson. I'll be honest with you,
It's going to be a two cigar night. And I
like the Chargers. I got friends with the Chargers, but
basically Baltimore is the adult Chargers. Remember a couple of

(01:52):
years ago, and you're like, the Ravens need more dynamic playmakers.
They draft z A Flowers this offseason, they get Derek Henry.
What are the Chargers need? Probably a more of a
star power running back, at least two more offensive playmakers.
Quentin Johnson can't catch three drops tonight. So like they
knew when they let go of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams,

(02:14):
they knew they were going to be perimeter light, So
they wanted to get Quentin Johnson as good as he
could possibly be. Nice deep threat, but can't catch Lad McConkie,
nice slot, average tight ends. They lost Gerald Everett, you know,
to the Bears, so you kind of knew that the
Chargers are had a schedule. I mean, last year they
lost to bad teams. This year the Chargers are six
to zero against losing records and they're one and four

(02:37):
against teams with winning records. So that this is what
the Chargers are right now. It's a really good football
team that is perimeter light. They need two more playmakers
and it kind of feels like they're Ravens. When it
was very very Lamar Jackson Reliant, Mark Andrews was great,
but you were like, they need two more wide receivers.
Then they draft eventually z A Flowers and then they

(02:58):
add Derek Henry in you, okay, Lamar, it's a little
bit like Josh Allen before they got James Cook the
running back, drafted kid and Kaid first round out of Utah.
They keep drafting wide receivers. Now you look at it
and you're like, Okay, Josh Allen's their best player, but
they're not totally Josh Allen reliant tonight, Derek Henry big runs,
Say Flowers big catches Hey Flowers is great. You can

(03:20):
give him a drag route for eight yards, turns it
into twenty eight. He can beat you over the top.
So the Chargers are a little like Josh Allen pre
all the weapons and Lamar Jackson pre the weapons. Those
teams eventually meet a Kansas city. You just can't even
if a quarterback's great Lamar and Josh Allen, Justin Herbert,
you can't do it yourself. You can see the interior

(03:42):
protection tonight was not good for Justin Herbert. So in
the second half the guard center guard for the Chargers
getting pushed back and not a lot of separation by
the receivers. Lad mcconkey's a twitchy, quick players not a
burner though, so you don't get a lot of separation.
Makes Herbert play a more perfect game, whereas a Flowers

(04:02):
you could dump him something in the flat, something underneath
boom makes it into a big play. Can also be
guys over the top. So it's just like the Ravens
are the grown up version of the Chargers, who are
way ahead of schedule by the way. The other thing
that jumps out to me is that, you know, the
Chargers were number one in total defense, top three and

(04:25):
third down defense, so they're great situationally, and yet what
did Lamar do tonight Three for three on fourth down,
fifty percent on third down, three hundred and seventy one
yards seven point one yards of play. It's a first
quarterback all year that worked the Chargers, Lamar Jackson, and
you know, it's just it's just like so many great

(04:46):
golfers played during Tiger Wood's prime, Phil Micholson's and Alzheimer.
Take out Tiger. He's got six more majors probably, and
nine more tournament wins. So I just think, you know,
the quarterbacks to me that jump out in this league,
there's about six of them, and Lamar and Josh Allen
have been sort of marginalized at times because they can't

(05:06):
beat Mahomes good luck. But this felt like a big
game and Lamar was, you know, the centerpiece of it.
The Oedther thing is, there was a couple of thoughts.
Number One, aggressive works. This game really changed. When the
Ravens go for it in their own sixteen get it
and leads to a touchdown. Aggressive wins, and you know,
I've talked about that all the time in sports. If

(05:28):
you have the pieces, go for it. They did turn
the game around. Secondly, there was a lot you heard
the young media lamenting nobody cares about running backs. Running
Backs aren't getting paid. You know, the top three rushers
in the NFL right now, we're all free agents. Teams
aggressively went out and got Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs.

(05:50):
Teams eventually pursued top running backs. They're not going to
get top of the market money. But analytics tells you
you probably shouldn't sign running back to a second big contract.
That's just analytics. I mean, if you're one of these,
you know, these ivy leaguers who loves the analytics. Part
of the analytics is you shouldn't be paying running backs
after like a fourth or fifth year in the league. Okay,

(06:13):
that's part of analytics. The other thing is, you know,
I've said this about Lamar, don't really compare Lamar Jackson
to anybody else. Lamar is an outlier. He's a unicorn.
They are going to be a kind of a run
first team in big spots as long as Lamar Jackson
is their quarterback. It's it's you know, it's no different

(06:35):
if you got a fastball pitcher, that's your outpitch. Don't
throw breaking stuff in big at bats in the World Series.
Lamar Jackson on big downs with Derrick Henry, run the
ball when they when they move away from that identity
last week or in the playoff game. That's what I
worry about. Baltimore lean on Lamar and Derek Henry in
that offensive line. So right now, running is cool again.

(06:59):
Look at the teams that lead the NFL and rushing
Philly Steelers, Lions, Packers, Ravens. What are they forty three
and nineteen or after the night forty four and nineteen.
And part of this is again defenses linebackers are smaller.
Why because the game's more about space Like the NBA game,
it's more about space. Linebackers now are faster and smaller.

(07:19):
Safeties are faster and smaller. What does that mean? Get
powerful run games? So that's the beauty of sports. That's
what I love about sports and football. It's very very cyclical.
Running backs were going nowhere. Running backs create the right tempo.
Running backs Detroit's a great example. Running backs value is
often not the big play. It's you have a lead

(07:43):
and they kill the clock. Detroit is going to lead
ninety nine percent of the games they play, including potentially
the Super Bowl. What makes Detroit so lethal is that
when they get a lead, they can play keep away.
They got two great backs and they'll just with that
offensive line, they'll go on an eight minute drive, eleven
play drives. So running backs aren't just about the home run.

(08:04):
They're about playing with a lead. And I mean you
start looking at these teams right now. That's why Detroit
and Philadelphia could absolutely win the Super Bowl. Stacked rosters,
but the ability to lead, Yes, hit home runs out
of the run game, but basically keep a Patrick Mahomes

(08:26):
or a Josh Allen off the field. That's a big
component to it. So, you know, I just with Lamar Jackson,
I think sometimes you know, there was no other Michael Jordan.
I mean, Kobe Bryant was like Michael Light, but there
was no other Michael. There was no other Charles Berkley,
there was no other Kareem. Nobody else had the sky

(08:47):
hook down. And I think Lamar Jackson you just have
to take him for what he is. He's the most
athletic quarterback I've ever seen. He's wildly entertaining. He is
a significantly better passer in the last three to four
years than anybody gives him credit for. And once again
he wins a big game in the AFC. If you're
playing Sunday night football and Monday night football and the
late window on Fox or CBS, you know, it doesn't

(09:08):
matter what network you're paying. Those standalone games could be Amazon.
Those are big games. I mean, the idea isn't baseball.
You got seventeen of min eighteen weeks. They're big games,
especially when you get to November and December and January.
So I never bought into Lamar Jackson's not a big
game player. Yes, in the playoffs he has struggled against
the Chiefs, so's Josh Allen. It's the Chiefs. Arguably, if

(09:32):
they win three straight, nobody's done it in league history.
A lot of people lost the Tiger Woods, right, A
lot of people lost to Jordan that were great teams.
So Lamar tonight, I think these are final stats. Sixteen
to twenty two, couple of touchdowns, one hundred and seventy
seven total yards, and that's what they asked of him.
They don't need him to throw thirty four times a game.
That's not what Baltimore is. I worry about when Baltimore

(09:54):
throws over twenty eight times a game, they get away
from their identity. Tonight ran the ball. Lamar made as usual,
big throws when he had to big throw over the top,
great on third down, perfect on fourth down. A couple
other notes here to throw at you. People will look
at the Chargers, you know, and you hear this well,

(10:17):
I mean, Justin Herbert can't win the big game. One
of the things I would say is when you watch
Justin Herbert, how often are his receivers truly open? He's
having to throw them open. And when his pass protection
is not great and in the second half it wasn't
as good. I think they're pretty good at tackle. They're
not necessarily as good guard center guard. There's not a
lot of separation. And I mean there was a lot

(10:40):
for Lamar Jackson tonight. A lot of it was underneath.
There were open guys. There were a lot of open guys,
and Lamar found up now. He missed on a couple
of sideline routes. He had an open receiver one time.
I think it was in the I think it was
first half, second quarter, maybe the third quarter. You know,
because Lamar is often on the move when he throws,
he can miss people. But I don't know how anybody

(11:02):
can watch Lamar Jackson and not think he is one
of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL. Just everybody's
got different gifts. Everybody's got different gifts in life. I
don't care if you're a broadcaster, you work in a hospital,
or a quarterback. The great ones all have different styles.
And I just can't quit Baltimore owner, front office, coach, quarterback.

(11:26):
They've added playmakers last couple of years. Yeah, I said
this today on FS one. I think I feel like
there's four teams that feel like they should be favorites
to win the Super Bowl, Kansas City, Buffalo, Detroit, and Philly.
But I'm sorry Baltimore is It may be for a

(11:48):
but it's when you watch Baltimore go on the road
dominate the second half, playmakers all over the place. Dereck
Henry icing it. Man, it's hard not to like that organization.
There's just this is not a bad night for the Chargers.
It's a night of growth for the Chargers. It shows
you exactly what they need to beat the best teams.

(12:09):
They have got to get two more playmakers. And for
the record, moving off Keenan Allen was the right move
for them. He's perfect for Caleb Williams. He was excellent
yesterday against Minnesota, but he was beat up and he
was expensive. And they wanted to keep Khalil Mack Andbosa right.
They wanted to keep their rush hands and so, and

(12:30):
they're paying Herbert. I get it. You know, you're trying
to create a physical culture. So Harbaugh and the front
office guys are like, let's move off their receivers. And
that's their weakness. So step two next year, I can
guarantee you Quentin Johnson.

Speaker 1 (12:43):
That's not it.

Speaker 2 (12:44):
They're going after They're going to draft one, maybe two receivers,
maybe get one in free agency. They'll probably, you know,
look to get a little younger at running back. You know,
you worry about JK. Dobbins. He's had a couple of
big injuries. I like him a lot, but he's had
a couple of big injuries. They'll probably go get another
tight end. You can see the plan. And with Jim Harbaugh,

(13:04):
you got about two more drafts where he's going to
have an advantage on the league because coaching at Michigan,
they had looks like a very good draft. This year,
he's probably got two more of those, maybe three, where
he's going to have recruited a majority of the guys
he's drafting. It's just a big advantage.

Speaker 1 (13:19):
You know.

Speaker 2 (13:19):
It's Bill Belichick's an all time great coach. Is he's
spending Saturday watching college football for fourteen hours because Jim
Harbaugh was spending three hundred days a year, three hundred
and forty days a year recruiting all these kids. He's
gonna draft last year in the next two to three years.
So the Chargers are fine. They're just they're they're they're
like the eighth grade version. Kansas City's a senior and

(13:43):
then and Baltimore's like a junior. And it's like the
Chargers are in eighth grade. They haven't gotten into the
high school hallway yet. They just this is step one.
They've got moves to make, they'll make them. They're six
to zero against losing teams, they're one and four against
winning teams. They're Baltimore three years ago, two years ago.
They just got add some pieces offensively, it feels inevitable.

(14:03):
Philadelphia and Detroit in the NFC Championship. Those are stack rosters.
The Rams actually have a great coach, excellent quarterback, nice weapons,
and a really strong defensive front. And it was completely
worked tonight. Almost five hundred yards for the Eagles, two
hundred and fifty five yards for Saquon Barkley. The Eagles

(14:27):
offensive line and the Lions offensive line are so much
better than the rest of the NFL. Four of the
five Eagle o linemen I think could get honors, just
dominating performance. And again the Rams have some talented young
guys up front, you know, and a lot of this

(14:48):
Howie Roseman the GM. This league is front offices are
so important. Teams like Cincinnati just don't make deals and
so it's Joe Burr a couple of your receivers and
they just a limited roster. Philadelphia is constantly trade deadline,
usually not necessarily this year, but big players at the

(15:11):
trade deadline, off season, free agency, Draft Day deals, and
you see the value of it. I mean, even without
Devonte Smith at wide receiver because he's banged up, they
lost Sleigh the corner during the game. In every unit,
the Eagles have a great, great player. And you know
I talked about this before the season. I said, the

(15:32):
idea of letting your best player go the New York
Giants to go to the Eagles is insane. I mean,
can you imagine, you know, the I know it's not
perfectly analogous, but the Chiefs, you know, letting the Chargers
have Mahomes in his prime. Now the Chargers have their

(15:52):
own quarterback, but the best player on the New York
Giants was allowed to go to their primary rival. Saquon Barkley.
Think about this, has twelve touchdowns this year. The Giants
have sixteen, last in the NFL. Saquon has ten plays
this year of thirty plus yards. That's the same as

(16:14):
the entire New York Giants offense. Giants let him walk.
I think there's an argument MVP this year. Boy after tonight.
I mean, Rookie of the Year has got to be
bow Knicks at least offensive rookie of the Year. I
would not have a problem with Saquon Barkley being MVP.
I would have no problem. I mean, the guy is

(16:37):
he is separated from the league at running back again.
McCaffrey last year fully healthy, but McCaffrey this year is
not the same. Yeah, Saquon Barkley is. There's just nothing
like him. I mean, every single carry looks like he's
one broken tackle from going the distance, and he did it,

(16:57):
you know, twice the night. Saquon Barkley is on pace
to set the NFL rushing record and scrimmage yards record.
So if you're thinking to yourself, man, he's having like
a incredible year. Yeah, the most incredible year ever potentially

(17:18):
for Saquon Barkley. It has like a KD to the
Warriors feel, where you're looking at a team that's good
enough to win the title and she's like, you know,
we're just gonna We're gonna throw in this guy that is,
you know, the best at his position, and he'll finally
actually have teammates that can help him, and you know,

(17:38):
a staff that can help him and a quarterback who's
a threat to run as well, so you can't just
hone in on him. It's just insane. And by the way,
the other player the Giants let go was a safety
who now leads the NFL in interceptions. Got the Giants
are so poorly run. But you know, Barkley, I've said before.

(18:03):
I think the best running back I ever saw was
Walter Payton. Barry Sanders probably so. Christian McCaffrey's dexterity and
his ability to do so many things probably puts him third.
But McCaffrey does not look the same this year and
instead Saquon Barkley was always an excellent player, but he

(18:23):
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Speaker 2 (20:14):
Time for another Sunday Hour and a half pod with
John Middlecoff, former NFL scout. I don't remember having a
Sunday where I was on the wrong side of virtually
everything except the Broncos game. What a crazy every favorite
I like, every dog, I like, fail to cover every
favorite I was gun shy on covered. Let's start with

(20:35):
Green Bay thirty eight, San Francisco ten. So, I mean,
you knew it was trouble Bosa out brought pretty out
Trent out, But as I was watching this, it was
more than that, because, I mean, Green Bay gave them opportunities.
I think you have to have a hard look in
the mirror, and it's hard in the NFL when you
still have really good people in the locker room. I

(20:57):
think this franchise needs a complete reboot. If you look
at the Detroits, the Green Bays, Buffalo, Kansas City, the
Chargers are up and coming. San Francisco is like an
old fighter, John, They're like an old boxer. Last year,
you know they were hanging on, had one last good fight.

(21:18):
Stop drafting receivers, rebuild the O lines and D lines.
Bosa's hurt, Kittle's hurt, McCaffrey's hurt. You know this organization, well,
but listen, Green Bay was gonna win this game. You
could tell two series in. I think San Francisco has
to hyper aggressively reboot the franchise.

Speaker 1 (21:38):
Well, it's tough when you're paying all these guys all
this money. They've recently best I think the best thing
that could happen to them because they're not making the playoffs.
Keep losing these games. I said, you know, today was
not a great day for Dallas, Like they're not going
to the playoffs. You win and ruined your draft position.
If you're the forty nine ers, you want to be
drafting seventh, not fifteenth, right because we know quarterbacks usually

(22:02):
go and that gives you an opportunity to get one
of the best players on the board. They played Buffalo
next week, that's a loss. You know the Rams. They
still play the Cardinals, like they could lose these games,
and I would imagine they do. So. I mean, I
think you're looking at at at best a seven win team,
and I think right now, you know, not winning maybe

(22:23):
one more game the rest of the season. This pretty
thing was well reported today, like they are not even
sure what's going on Bosa hurt one hip that he
heard another Trent's just a weathered, you know, older player
that this team, you know, what they need, They kind
of need to get bounced in the first round or
I mean, you know, not even make it to the
first round of the playoffs and get extra time off
and get to reset. It happened to the Warriors. Remember

(22:44):
they had twenty twenty. Twenty twenty was really rough couple
of years. Then they were fresh than they won a championship.

Speaker 2 (22:50):
Well, remember the Niners' last Super Bowl loss went six
and ten were injury ravaged.

Speaker 1 (22:55):
Yeah, so I to me, the best easiest way for
them to get players they're not gonna have a lot
of cap space because of all the big cap you
know hits they have with players, is to have like
the eighth pick in the draft, because it's not just
the first round, it's every round, and they've proven to
be able to draft for really well in the fourth, fifth,
sixth round. When you're drafting in the top ten, you know,

(23:16):
there aren't really many excuses to miss, like when they're
drafting in the late twenties. So I think the best
case scenario roll out the team they're rolling out and
they're gonna their schedule is hard. I mean they still
play the Dolphins, who look good right now. Obviously they
got the bills next week. They're just gonna naturally lose
a lot of games, which I think is really gonna
benefit them long term.

Speaker 2 (23:36):
Well, you know, it's interesting. I was watching Caleb Williams today,
who was just he's such a talented guy. Boon Nicks
looks fantastic. Jaden Daniels has hit the cliff Kingsbury wall,
you know, around Thanksgiving. Even in college, his teams tended
to swoon late. And I looked at rock Purty. They're
gonna keep him right. I mean, you can't pay him
fifty million, but they're gonna broker a deal here probably

(23:57):
in the forties. Is that what you're thinking?

Speaker 1 (23:59):
They do? They have to, they call it. Why why
are we always in such a rush? Like he's he's
not struggling to put food on the table. He's making
millions of dollars off the field. It's an incredible spot
for him with Kyle if you win six or seven games,
and listen, this hasn't been his fault necessarily, But why
are we in a rush to spend fifty million when
clearly what there are four or five guys in the

(24:21):
league that you feel really good about it, and then
the next five guys making that much money or somewhat
of a roller coaster. You know, I would have no
problem giving him that. I don't know Kirk Cousins, Daniel
Jones eighty ninety and everyone's like, well, he'll never take that. Well,
then we won't do a deal. You know, if he
would have got me back to the NFC Championship game
this year, you wouldn't have had a choice. But they're

(24:42):
not sniffing the playoffs. He's injured. Now we're playing it
out Like the problem with Dallas playing it out is
you knew how it was going to play out. Why
can't we just take a deep breath and see how
see what happens?

Speaker 2 (24:56):
Ye?

Speaker 1 (24:56):
Where is he going? Yeah, well it's a better situation.
Who's who's lighting up one? He's not a free agent,
but who's lining up on the open market to give him,
let's just say, one hundred and fifty million dollars a year?
Who you big against? Yeah, so they regret the IU contract,
they have to. If they could do that over again,
they would have traded him before the draft. I mean,
there's not even so let's take a deep breath, let's

(25:17):
just play it out, and that that's what I I
would say most of my life, what up until the
last four or five years, that's usually how business used
to happen. Unless your name was like Peyton Manning or
Ladanian Tomlinson or some like all time great player. Most
players usually had to fight for their cash. And now,
just because the league's flush with it, we just give

(25:38):
it away. And again I have no problem giving it
to the elite guys. Hell, Trent Williams, you need a boost,
I'll give you a boost. Rockberdy, like, let's just take
a deep breath, everybody. That's been my stance all along
is why can't What was the rush to pay Trevor Lawrence?
Does any team regret a contract more than the Jags,
Like five weeks into the contract at least two has

(26:02):
proven like, but again, Tua's not making two hundred plus trial,
that's right. So and the party thing was being talked about, well,
it's the Trevor Lawrence and it's like, well, if I'd
give them one hundred and forty million dollars right now,
but that's not what the ballpark that has been discussed.

Speaker 2 (26:18):
Yeah, I mean it's such a big decision. I'd peel
off some of the players. I would have moved off
Deebo last year. I wouldn't have paid Ayuk. I think
they've been a little negligent on the offensive line. They've
they've attacked the defensive line. I think they've been a
bit negligent on the offensive line.

Speaker 1 (26:38):
I just don't not Colin. They're not negligent. They've been
Kyle and the offensive line coach have been open about
their philosophical belief of skill players are more important than
offensive linemen. Oh, you can tell they believe in that
zone scheme that I can take mainly average guys. Obviously
Trent is their outlier. But how'd they get Trent. They
got them for a third round pick right in the

(26:59):
only reason he didn't go to Minnesota, who was offering
way more as he refused to go there because he
wanted to play for his guy, Kyle. So they've openly said, yeah,
we don't take offensive lineman if we believe a skill
guy's on the board higher the football I was around
growing up, you know, with coach Hill, who came from
Belichick and then Andy Reid and Howie Roseman. They would
laugh at that they would take offensive lineman in the

(27:20):
first round and then they take him again in the
second round.

Speaker 2 (27:23):
Bo Nix has completely surpassed Jaden Daniels for offensive Rookie
of the Year. Like it's not club. I mean, he's
the last six games. It's not close. Bo Nicks looks confident, accurate, poised, athletic.
Jaden's lost his fastball. And so, you know, I talked
to Steve kaim I said, you know, can you explain
the Cliff Kingsbury College and professional swoon in the second

(27:45):
half of the season. And Steve just said, he's a
very smart, creative guy who works in the summer to
come in with new stuff and maybe the league catches
up with him that he doesn't pivot to the second
pitch after he's brought in new stuff. But Steve didn't
really have an answer, But you know, he said, hard working, clever, smart,
he does come in every year with new stuff. But

(28:06):
I was sitting there watching that thing today and by
the way, Washington almost pulled it off. But once again
Washington missed Pats. They missed a field golf special teams
in this league are I don't remember a year that
special teams decided more football games. They're just terrible. But

(28:26):
I looked at this and I thought to myself today,
if you could redraft all the quarterbacks, and you have
to consider Sean Payton and the bow next deal, if
you could redraft the quarterbacks, would you draft them differently?
Forget the teams? Would you read draft them differently?

Speaker 1 (28:44):
Well, I think Caleb's at least quieted, and listen, I
was starting to wonder, what the hell are we? Watching
these last two weeks make you feel a lot better.
I mean, today he made throws where you're like, that's
what a number one overall pick looks like. No disputing.
Here's where I will defend Jade and Daniels because today
he was running around pretty well. I came into this season.
I know you picked him to make the playoffs. I

(29:06):
thought this was more like a six or seven win team.
It was going to be an impressive operation, but wins
loss were not going to be what it looked like
they were going to be three weeks ago. I don't
think they're that talented Colin. I honestly, I don't think
they're teams that good Yeah, Terry mclaurin's good. Their running
backs getting banged up. Brian Robinson's a good player, but

(29:26):
he was in and out. So if they're not running
the ball well, And here's the one thing, and I
always thought this about Chip Kelly, and you know, Mike
Leach never came to the NFL. But Cliff's a good example.
These spread offenses. Right early on in the season, rapid
fire defenses aren't as dialed. Take advantage of it. As
the season goes on, weather changes a little bit, it

(29:48):
gets a lot more physical. What Dallas happened today. Parsons
is back now, like their defense is a little bit
more I would say legitimate with him in the game,
and they were just ready for a brawl like they
got pride. I mean they got a lot high page and.

Speaker 2 (30:01):
Is accurate moves the ball for sure.

Speaker 1 (30:03):
And it was a physical game.

Speaker 2 (30:04):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (30:05):
I think sometimes the more physical you are with more
of the quote unquote spread offenses, you can shove them
around a little bit. And I think that's really what's
happened in my opinion. Now. You know once that I
saw on the Denver game is Bonnix hasn't turned the
ball over in fourteen quarters. One pass was on a
hail Mary. But Jane Daniels have three picks today.

Speaker 2 (30:25):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (30:25):
Right, So it's like you start turning the ball over,
you start forcing things. Games are a little closer. The
other thing is in the NFL, you know, regardless of records,
I've always thought, you know, as the season goes on,
like where do you get a lot of upsets in
the NFL? Are division games in November and December with
a good team versus bad team? We see it every year. Yea,

(30:47):
like today, who in their right mind would have given
Dallas a shot? But you can tell halfway through You're like,
this is a real game, this is gonna be tough.

Speaker 2 (30:54):
Well, the tight quarterback played great. Yeah, No, it's it's you.
I think. When I looked at that game, I'm like, oh,
Dallas just screwed up your drafts spot. Yeah. I think
to your point, I think we have to take a
deep breath. Washington replaced everybody they came in with a

(31:15):
new quarterback and a new offense. In Cliff Kingsbury's history
of starting the first six to eight weeks quickly, but
then eventually regression to the meme. Whereas Denver is better
than people think. Denver's got some really good players. Denver
has an elite offensive coach, Denver has a college quarterback
with sixty one starts, and Denver's Cortland Sutton, who, like

(31:35):
Terry McLaurin, is just a big target that's open all
the time. And I want to pivot to that game
because we haven't talked a lot of Denver on our
Sunday podcast. So Denver beats the Raiders twenty nine nine
teams the only.

Speaker 1 (31:48):
Game all day.

Speaker 2 (31:49):
If I would have bet every game, I think I
would have gotten right. So bo Nick's his last eight games,
John fifteen touchdowns, two picks, and a one oh four
passer rating in those games, they're five and if a
field goal is not blocked against the Chiefs, they're six
and two. Like we have to acknowledge now Denver with
in dead cap money, hell, that sacrificed draft capital. I

(32:13):
think this is a good team. I watch them again.
The Raiders don't have a lot of quarterback, but they've
got some talent. I think we have to be honest
about this. I think Denver's pretty good football team.

Speaker 1 (32:23):
Well, Colin, I think we could be seven days away
from them being officially, I guess unofficially a playoff team
because they play Cleveland this week. In Miami, who's obviously
got it together with Tua back, A lot of people
think that they are alive and well, well, they play
the Packers this week. So if Miami loses and they
are then five and seven and Denver wins, they would

(32:45):
be eight and five. Like, I have a hard time
seeing Miami catch them. So this is a massive week.
Like I think Denver's in the playoffs. If they handle
business this week and all of a sudden you start
doing the math like they're getting a nine, no doubt,
But I think they end up with ten, and that's
they basically doubled their win total. Like this. This has
been a huge year for Sean Payton. Honestly, it's been

(33:07):
a win win for Russell Anshewan. Yes, some marriages break up,
go other places, happy as hell with your separate significant others.
That's how it's worked out here. So it just it
was never gonna work. You thought it. We all thought it.
Anyone with a brain that knows these two personalities, even
if you don't know him personally, you're like, this isn't
gonna work. And they broke up and it's gone well

(33:28):
for both Listen Right and Sean Payton. I think was
pretty lucky that, you know, there was six quarterbacks in
the you know, because a lot of them were going high.
It just happened to be a very unique draft because
it's not like they were drafted fourth right, so he
needed some of the stuff was out of his control,
and it worked out perfectly. The type guy that he
would like is the last guy off the board in

(33:50):
the top fifteen. I mean, it was a historic draft, right,
six guys going the top twelve thirteen picks. We might
never see that again.

Speaker 2 (33:56):
And Denver has in nine of the last twelve games,
and this is so big for rookie quarterback. They've held
opponents under twenty So when bow nicks it maybe struggles
today a little bit in a couple of drives. They're
not giving up points.

Speaker 1 (34:11):
So their dbs A, their dbs are good. I mean
every time I look up, obviously certains good. They have
all these other guys. This is why vance Joseph, which
Shawn deserves credit for, because you give up seventy points
in a game. I would have been like, Shawn, you
might have to fire this guy. By mid season, stick
it out by the end of the year. Last year,
they're playing good defense. This year, I think that has
to be the most surprised unit of the league. They

(34:32):
feel just on the it test, one of the best
defenses in the league. I know Gardner Minshew today, but
the score was a little closer. This guy never once
crossed my mind that the Raiders were gonna win that
game today.

Speaker 2 (34:43):
No, but they've been doing this now for two months.
I mean, go to the Kansas City game. They outplayed
the Kansas City Chiefs, and so on the road.

Speaker 1 (34:52):
That's where I think. You know, depending on how this Denver,
more than likely it would probably be the seven seed. Baltimore. Yeah,
you know, they already has four losses. But if you're
telling me two of the three wild cards are Denver
and the Chargers, Like anytime you play your wild card weekend,
you're playing an excellent defense, like you could lose. You know,

(35:13):
this is not a three to seven game series. All
of a sudden, you have a shitty half, You're down
fourteen to three in the third quarter. We've seen this
every year. So you got two teams separate from obviously
Herbert's you know, an elite player. But even with a
rookie quarterback. We have seen rookie quarterbacks have success in
the PLAYFF because they don't have to do that much.
And that's kind of you know, bo Nicks, as long

(35:33):
as he didn't turn the ball over and their defense
played a high level game, why couldn't they win it
seventeen to fourteen or fifteen to thirteen. They're very comfortable
playing that way.

Speaker 2 (35:42):
Think about this, and I watched them today. Sean Payton
does such a good job of two things. Defining. He
gives bo Nix about eight layups. He gives them a
lot of easy stuff. And then bow Knicks deserves credit
because he is constantly seeking Courtland Sun and Courtland Sutton
is a basketball with a helmet. I mean that he's
big in the corner, Jesus big, long athletic. I've always

(36:07):
liked Courtland Sutton so and mims Is it can be
a burner. I like their backs. But you can see
that he gets Bownicks easy stuff. And then bow Bow
like Russell does with George Pickens, Bow just attacks Cortland Sutton.
But take out Andy Reid. Just take Andy Reid out.
Belichick's now not coaching. On any given Sunday, I'd argue

(36:30):
Sean Payton's as good as coach as the league has.
I absolutely believe that. I think Andy Reid's the best,
maybe arguably ever. But now that Belichick's out take out
Andy Reid, he can go toe to toe. I mean,
I love Sean McVay. They've had some bad offensive halves
when people are healthy. So I think a lot of
this is, you know, it's just funny because Shawn's done

(36:50):
things to alienate people. He's outspoken. Remember he took a
shot at the Jets. He was right by the way.
You know, he took a shot at Nat Hackett. He
was right by the way. But you know, when you
lead with your chin, you offend a lot of people.
You cannot watch Denver and not see the coaching. It's
it's I mean to me, if you gave Coach of
the Year today, I don't know how you'd I don't

(37:12):
know who you'd pick. I think Sean Payton's now after
that Tomlin time out mess, clock management mess. I think
I give it to Sean Payton.

Speaker 1 (37:21):
You know, I think it's the one award that, honestly,
as time goes on, is irrelevant, right, Like Belichick, Andy Reed,
they don't even have that many. Andy Reid doesn't have one.
As a cancy chiefs head coach like Jim Harbaugh took
over a team that won five games, They're probably gonna
win eleven or twelve. And I think the way you
just describe Sean, I think Jim is definitely mellowed out

(37:45):
in his older age, but he was a lot like
that early on in Michigan and definitely with San Francisco
and both I mean, look at those two guys. If
you would have said that the Chargers in Denver, whatever
the odds, if you would have parlayed those two teams
to make the playoffs, Colin, they might make the playoff.
They might be resting starters by the last week of season.
And it's not a coincidence that those guys. Here's the

(38:08):
other thing, and Sean, once he hired Dennis Allen, their
defense was excellent the last three or four years with
the Saints. Jim, both offensive guys, former quarterbacks value defense
and will pay for it and invest in it. And
that really matters. And I don't think it's shocking. And
this is why you're watching the Raiders today. You're like,

(38:28):
can you imagine being the redhead stepchild of your division
when you're in that you know, with those three coaches, Like,
what do you even do? Like? You better hope Belichick
picks up your call this offseason, because if he doesn't,
you got no shot.

Speaker 2 (38:42):
I watched Bryce Young today, who's arguably the best quarterback
ever in Southern California high school history, who was dominant
in college. I ran into his high school coach the
other night at Modern Day, a legend who's retired, and
I said, best player you ever had? You know, first
second name out was Bryce Young. He's like, he's just
a remarkable player, great kid. I don't think Caroline is

(39:06):
going to draft a quarterback. I think the class is
two weak. I think they think Bryce is better than
anybody outside of Shador Sanders. I think Caroline is going
to give Bryce Young another year. What's say you?

Speaker 1 (39:16):
Yeah? I would say he's done a lot like his
version of what Caleb has done these last couple of weeks. Yep,
you know, over the last three games for him, he's
looked like a real player. Now, if you could do
it all over again, would you have mortgaged what you
did to get him. I mean I think probably not,
I would not, but he has been more than respectable
these last three weeks. And he you know, confidence is

(39:38):
a powerful thing for young players. Listen, He's not he's
a little small, not a great athlete, but he does
have a natural feel for the position. And that's what
was so head scratching when they essentially had to bench him,
is he was inaccurate. He was making awful decisions. He
just looked lost and maybe sometimes like you just take
a reset. Listen, I think Anthony Richardson, even today they

(39:59):
kind of got just has looked a lot better. I
thought he looked a lot better today. Take a deep breath.
I don't know if Bryce needed to be like humbled
like Anthony Richardson, but he definitely, like just take a
step back was probably healthy for him, and he looks
like a real NFL quarterback. Now, their team a lot
of question marks. Is their coaching staff good enough? Is
their talent long way to go? But I'm with you, like,

(40:20):
what are you gonna draft cam Ward or Quinn?

Speaker 2 (40:23):
You were so well the same thing in Tennessee. They
beat the Texans today and so that's I mean, this
is not a game that's riveting. But the Titans thirty two,
Texans twenty seven. So listen, the last six games, c J.
Stroud is really struggling. They went and got Stefan Diggs
should have probably addressed the interior line. C J. Stroud
is hurrying everything. He is struggling. He has a seventy

(40:45):
four passer rating in his last six games. He is
really struggling. But I watched Will Levis today and my
take his with Bryce Young and Will Levis, I'm just
keeping them. I'm giving him another year. I mean, hell,
the Giants paid Daniel Jones. I don't think Daniel's as
natural as Bryce Young. I don't think he's as I
don't think he has the arm of Will Levis. And

(41:05):
my take watching Will Levis today the last two weeks,
I'm kind of like, yeah, they got boat raced by Detroit.
They don't have the same level of players. But I
watched Will Levis and Bryce Young and my take is
we like CJ. Scroud and we see what he's going through,
and Houston's got better players than the Titans. I thought
Will Levis today bought himself absolutely another year. I mean,

(41:29):
you can go get Sam Darnold in the market. I
think they're just gonna.

Speaker 1 (41:31):
Stick with him. Yeah, I mean, you know, Will did
give you the one pick six. No, he he did
make some fantastic throws down the field. Something is really
off with Houston. I mean, they have not looked good
in a way, even in their wins. It's just they
looked a lot different. Maybe was their schedule last year. Obviously,

(41:51):
you know, protecting CJ has been a problem, but they
look they look like a lock to be a one
and done. You know, if you tell me they're playing
the Chargers or the Race, even in the first round,
the way they're playing, I'd say Cyanarah. But I hear you, like,
this is this league's hard, and I think sometimes you know,
these teams get so caught up on these shiny targets.
It's like, let's use Digs for an example. So you're

(42:14):
telling me the Bills, and listen, I know people with
the Texans, they like Digs. But even like he hasn't
been a personal personality problem. But let's just talk about
the player standpoint. The Bills, who have been one of
the best operations in the league minus like the Chiefs
for the last four years, are completely out on the guy.
You already have Nico Collins and Tank Dell, who are
clearly a good young nucleus. With Schultz, you're gonna add

(42:36):
a running back, Like your offense is not lin of scrimmage,
line of scrimmage, line of scrimmage, Yet you go do that, Like,
I think that's one where you're like, we didn't need
to do that. That's right, but that doesn't make sense.
We should have been extra aggressive for another guard, for
another center, for another d tackle. That's where we're gonna
separate ourself from the line of scrimmage. They felt like
they wanted to go more and be this spreaded around team,

(42:57):
and that's kind of what they look like now. They're
just kind of soft. Yeah, and their offense gets shoved
around today. I mean, one thing the Titans have had
all year long is their defense is pretty good. Yes,
you remove that game against the Lions where they scored
seventy five points, Like, the Titans defense has not been
the problem. And now Will Levis, I think statistics over
the last couple weeks have been a lot better on
what have they been, They've been a lot more competitive.

Speaker 2 (43:18):
Yeah, I mean, I think you have to strongly consider
this quarterback class where Schner Sanders is the best product
project prospect. But it's not great. I mean, he's got
there's some ego, there's some emotion he holds on.

Speaker 1 (43:32):
I don't think he would have gone if you put
him in this last draft. Yeah, he doesn't go ahead
of Kleb. No, he does not. Jayden's more physically gifted.
I think there's I would say, above a fifty percent
chance that they still would go with Drake May in
New England, bigger arm, cold weather like that factors in,
so he wouldn't have even potentially gone definitely in the

(43:54):
top two, but probably in the top three of this
last quarterback class. That's not even a shock. Drake May
was Nick Saven tried to give him five million dollars
the previous year. Yeah, so I think sometimes we act
like Drake May was just this overdrafted scrub and they
got their butt kicked today. But he was. He's a
legitimate prospect coming out of college.

Speaker 2 (44:14):
Well, and I think Sean Payton identified very early bo
Nix was his Drew Brees. So Shaduur is benefiting greatly.
Cam Ward is a lot of backyard football, a very
edgy personality, and I'll just I'll leave it at that.
He's a very edgy personality, not for everybody. Jalen Milroll
is not very fluid. Big strong kid, great parents, wonderful kid,

(44:37):
completely coachable. He's Anthony Richardson but better at this point.
But he's not a natural, Like he can make great throws,
but he doesn't. He doesn't feel like he's played enough quarterback,
like he needs a lot of work. So my take is,
if I got Will Levis and I look at it
and I think, well, maybe Will's not shaduor Sanders. But
if I if I've got five wins and I'm drafted nine,

(44:58):
I'm not moving up for Shador Sanders. Im I'm just
staying with Will Levis for a year. All Right. It
is time for another edition, the Thanksgiving Edition. It's a
tasty one. Sharper Square Chad Millman, co host of the Favorites.

(45:18):
All odds provided by DraftKings. So this line I didn't understand.
There's a couple of lines this week I didn't quite get.
So the Steelers are a much better football operation than
Joe Burrow and the Bengals. And I've talked about this before.
The Bengals moved off Joe Mixon and defensive players before

(45:39):
they paid T Higgins and Jamar Chase. There's just a
cheap franchise. Pittsburgh awful. Loss is going to be feisty.
Pittsburgh is a dog is great. Burrow's wonderful, but not
when he's sitting on the bench watching a run game,
dominate time of possession. I like the Steelers as a
dog plus three, it's a much better team. Sharpe square.

Speaker 4 (46:01):
Yeah, of course, it's the sharp play. It makes no
sense that the number is even close to three.

Speaker 2 (46:09):
I don't get it.

Speaker 4 (46:10):
It's been bouncing around. It opened to two and a half,
got that up to three, came back to two and
a half. Because the wise guys know Mike Tomlin as
a dog sixty two percent on the road, he is
the best coach as a dog this generation. Twenty years.

(46:33):
He is sixty two percent as a dog in the
division on the road, sixty four percent when the spread
is between one and three. I do believe that a
lot of people are just enamored with how Joe Burrow
has been playing.

Speaker 2 (46:47):
It's pretty year.

Speaker 4 (46:48):
He's putting up pinball numbers, right, But this is a
terrible defense and while they've been off for two weeks,
the Steelers have been off for ten days, and it's
a raw, raw Mike Tomlin spot. He makes these guys believe,
and there's still in a position where they can win
that division, so you're not going to want to lose
an in division game. I bet the Steelers on the

(47:09):
money line.

Speaker 2 (47:10):
Another dog I like is Arizona plus three and a half.
The Vikings so off of by Arizona was a mess,
and a lot of it was Seattle got a consistent
pass rush. I don't think Minnesota's pass rush will be
that formidable. I also think Arizona, when they can run
the ball, is a really really effective team. I think
they'll have a better chance to run the ball here.

(47:34):
Arizona's inconsistent, but this is a team that has for
the last five weeks. I mean, they went to Miami
in one and they went to Santa Clair in one.
I think their personnels better than people think. They have
elite players, Budda Baker's elite, Connor's elite. Mcgride is a
tremendous tight end, Kyler Murray's elite. They don't have big
names on the interior d line, but they play well,

(47:55):
they play above their weight. So I just think I
think this is a close game. Minnesota doesn't really bury people.
Go look at the Jacksonville game, Go look at the
Chicago game. They're not Philadelphia. They don't blow over you.
They make mistakes, they're missing their great left tackle. They're
a good team, they're not special. They're well coached with

(48:16):
some nice playmakers. But you watch the Minnesota game, that's
a go either way football game. It doesn't look like
either team is significantly more talented and one is in turmoil,
and you're like, I don't know, they kind of look
the same. I'm taking the three and a half with
Arizona Sharper square.

Speaker 1 (48:33):
Eh.

Speaker 4 (48:34):
It's kind of an is ish, like there's no consensus.
It's not a lot of interest, to be honest, from
the wise guys. There's some games on the board that
the wise guys have planted a flag in the sand on.
This is not one of them. A lot of the
wise guys liked Arizona last week. They feel a little
burned by what happened in Seattle. You still don't know,

(48:55):
we said last week. They put all their cards on
the table right pun intended, and they come off the
buy Kyler kind of looks disinterested. So what are you
going to be getting the second week going against Minnesota
which still has a lot to lose, And you're right,
they gave it away against the Bears, like the Bears
should not even have been close to turning that game

(49:17):
into an overtime game, so that they come out with
a little more intensity this week. It's just a hard
one and handicap. I think I think the line is
kind of right exactly where it is.

Speaker 2 (49:28):
Okay, a favorite I like Buffalo at home minus seven,
well rested and waiting for a Niners team. Bosa didn't practice,
Trent Williams didn't practice. I'm not sure if that locker room.
I mean, if Bosa doesn't play, that's a very average
D line. Buffalo's rested, they're healthy. You know, they're a

(49:48):
team that they're playing for the number one seed here.
And by the way, Alan the backup for San Francisco,
that's not gonna work. That's just not good enough. And
brock Prudy, who he never has a great arm, is
now dealing with a shoulder issue. Again, this is not
a guy with a whip to begin with. This is
the rare. I think the Niners are living off reputation.

(50:10):
I just don't think they're a very special football team.
Five and seven in their last twelve, I'm gonna lay
the seven. I like Buffalo Sharper square sure.

Speaker 4 (50:18):
I mean the wise guys had been betting Buffalo. It
opened at six and a half, it's got up to seven.
I think the real question why it sort of hasn't exploded,
And we saw this last week with the Packers, is
brock Purty. What's his status gonna be? So no one's
going to overinvest until they get a real sense of
what whether or not he's going to be playing. I

(50:39):
agree with you about Nick Bosa. If you watch that
game against the Seahawks, he was the difference when he
was playing, they were in control of that game. Gino
Smith was harassed, he was making bad decisions and bad
throws when he was no longer playing. In that game,
Geno Smith goes on a drive in the final two
minutes that wins in the game, and now all of

(51:00):
a sudden, it's propelling Saddle into Seattle and everyone thinking
they're a super special team and they could potentially win
the NFC West. Nick Boson not being there and Trent
Williams are those are massive, massive missing pieces.

Speaker 2 (51:17):
I like the Titans plus five and a half at
the Commanders. I think Cliff Kingsbury does this single guy
a lot of time in the summer, plays some golf
and comes up with a new offense, and I think
it fools people, and then all of a sudden, about
mid October to late October, if you look at his
history in college or pro football, people catch up. And

(51:40):
then you're left with a September offense in November. And
I just don't think the Commanders. I mean Jesus, It's
like the Cowboys had the Commander's playbook. They would flush
Daniels out of the pocket and there were guys just
waiting for him. And I think Tennessee is really good upfront,
defensively disruptive. I think Will Levis still makes He's got

(52:04):
that Will Levis Carson Wentz reckless gene. But you know what,
I think he's played himself into another year starting and
I think you can sense it. I think he doesn't
feel as apprehensive. I just don't. I'm not giving up
five and a half points for anybody against the Commanders.
I think they're just right now. An average roster. They

(52:24):
have laid out their cards, everybody's seen them. I'm taking
the five and a half. I think Tennessee's a tough,
physical team. Is Houston found out Sharper square.

Speaker 4 (52:34):
Yeah, you nail that.

Speaker 1 (52:35):
It's totally sharp.

Speaker 4 (52:36):
The interesting thing here is the line moved from six
and a half to six to five and a half
early in the week, and for what we're talking about here,
early in the week was really Monday. Yeah, and that
was a consensus professional move. I bet it at five
and a half. It moved up a little bit to
six six and a half again, and now it's come
back down. I couldn't agree with you more. The cliff,

(53:00):
the cliff Kingsbury cliff mid season is real. Statistically, right,
Texas Tech they would get to the middle point of
the year, they would lose. Cardinals they would get to
the middle point of the year, they would lose. If
you unpack that, it's somewhat circumstantial, right. You could look
at Texas Tech and be like, Okay, they play Patsy's

(53:22):
in the beginning of the year, they get into the conference,
the schedule gets hush right, right, and the Cardinals a
couple of times he had Kyler Murray injured, didn't have
the full scope of his talent, and all of a
sudden the team isn't as good. But it's happening again.
It's happening this time because Jade Daniels is injured and
has been playing injured. And after that rocket start the
first four weeks of the year, he's barely completing seventy

(53:45):
percent of his passes after a start with he was
completing eighty percent. Right, you look at the flip side,
and yes, Tennessee they have a very good defense. They've
been playing better. Last week they gave up eight sacks
and Will Levis had a pick six, and they still
beat Texans, who have a better quarterback than the Washington Commanders.

(54:05):
And I do think that this is going to be
the worst defense Will Levis has faced this season. And
he has an opportunity here to be pressured a little
bit less and get the ball, push the ball downfield,
which is what he's really good at, and that's when
he's most comfortable. So well as guys are with you,
that's a sharp play.

Speaker 2 (54:24):
I don't know how many people will watch this. I
like the Texans minus four at the Jags I don't
know what the Jags are playing for. I think that's
a kind of a ugly, toxic locker room where people
have bailed. I think the Texans off one of their
worst performances of the year. It means a lot. They're
playing for more. They're pissed off. They have an issue

(54:46):
with protection guard center guard. But they've got just simply
better players playing for more, and frankly, a better quarterback.
If Trevor Lawrence plays, he's not close to one hundred percent.
I think they have a coaching advantage, a coordinating advantage.
This feels like my second favorite bet of the week.
I'm going to take the Texans minus four at the
Jag Sharper square.

Speaker 4 (55:07):
Well, I wish you hadn't said it was your second
favorite favorite. The wise guys are all over the Jags
in this game. They love the Jags. They've moved from
five to four and a half to four.

Speaker 1 (55:17):
Wow.

Speaker 4 (55:18):
Yeah, it's it's an interesting one for me personally. I
agree with you, it's a pass. I think the wise
guys are looking at CJ. Stroud and thinking he's average.
It's not that he's not progressing, it's that he's the
protection's terrible, Like, well, he's playing like a normal quarterback right,

(55:38):
and like his interception percentage was so low last year
that it doubles this year, and all of a sudden
it's at league average and everyone thinks, oh my god,
there's something wrong with him. They're playing different defenses again,
it's him, So his coverage is different, and he hasn't
had his best players so and and the offensive line
protection is terrible, truly terrible.

Speaker 2 (55:58):
You can tell he's letting go every thing a second
early everything.

Speaker 4 (56:01):
Yeah, and he's also a gunslinger, right, Like he likes
to let it go. He's not going to stop being aggressive.
As he said last week, you got to shoot your shot.
So I think that the wise guys are looking at
this and saying division game on the road, JAG's last
chance to make a stand. If Trevor Lawrence is playing,
the sort of betting on the opportunity that he might
be playing, and they thought the number was a little

(56:22):
bit too high, so they're taking a piece of that
while they can.

Speaker 2 (56:26):
I always have a gam every week. I want your expertise.
So I think the Chargers are a better team than
the Falcons, But I also think the Falcons are arrested.
They're at home, and I think they're more explosive offensively.
I feel like with the Chargers, and I've seen this
now a couple of times this year, because they don't
have playmakers. Quentin Johnson officially can't catch that. They score

(56:49):
basically on big drives, nine play drives, ten play drives,
eleven play drives. Well, you're asking for perfect football. You
know Philadelphia can have penalties. Saquon Barkley up off a
fifty seven yard er. AJ Brown over the top. You
need freebies. You can't live on twelve play drives. And
that's what the Chargers have to do. And the middle
of their interior of their own line isn't good enough,

(57:12):
so they get holding calls. They don't have receivers that separate.
I'm guessing the Sharps like Atlanta plus one at home.

Speaker 4 (57:24):
Back and forth. The line actually moved up from one
and a half to to two and a half. And
I think that the sentiment is that people are actually
impressed with the Chargers and that the difference in that
game against the Ravens was JK. Dobbins leaving the game
and it completely changed the tenor. And you're right about

(57:47):
the offensive line, especially the interior the offensive line. That's
where the Ravens were getting pressure. The Falcons can't get pressure.
They're not the Ravens. They really can't get any pressure
at all, and so that's not expected to be factor
for the Chargers. I will tell you it's it's sort
of and not. A line has come back down, which
tells you that the wise guys felt the line had

(58:07):
gotten too high, and there's been some buyback. And by
the way, this is a very common thing. There are
a lot of professional betters who might like the Falcons
and want the line to be a little bit different.
So early in the week, what do they do. They
bet on the Chargers, say five grand, ten grand whatever,
move the line up, and then when it gets to

(58:28):
a certain point, they bet fifty grand, sixty grand on
the Falcons. Right, So they're paying a little bit of
a premium to get the line to move so they
can get better price on the team they really want.
That could have happened this week.

Speaker 1 (58:38):
I don't know.

Speaker 4 (58:39):
I haven't heard that, but it's possible. So there's no
it's a long way of saying there's no real consensus
here on what this game should.

Speaker 2 (58:47):
Be okay, Chad, And there's always one that I missed.
Seahawks at the Jets is interesting to me. I kind
of like Kansas City, big favorite over the Raiders. I'll
stay away. What's the one I missed?

Speaker 4 (59:02):
Well, look the wise guys like the Jets. I'm sorry
to say. It's so interesting because on one New York team,
you've got locker room turmoil, you've got quarterback intrigue, you've
got players who are frustrated with the coaching. You've got
an owner who is incredibly frustrated with how the personnel

(59:24):
has sort of fleshed out. And then you've got another
New York team where the owner is basically entering his
Montgomery Burns phase. Right, he is taking a helicopter, landing
it on the field. The GM is standing next to
a coach when the helicopter lands and said, if I
don't come back, it's been a pleasure to serve with you.

(59:46):
And then the GM actually gets fired. And this is
after the coach. The owner had fired the coach without
telling anybody, and after the owner had traded for a
receiver without telling anybody, and openly opine should we be
bencing Annon Rodgers? And yet the wise guys, they've been
betting the Giants, but they like the Jets a lot
more against Seattle. I think part of it is like,

(01:00:08):
this is the time to grab a number that is
overinflated on Seattle as much as anything else. So they're
on that. The wise guys. Of course they're going to
be on the Raiders. It's not even it's not even
a question. They were on the Raiders when the line
was at thirteen and a half thirteen, twelve and a
half twelve. It got that back up by the public

(01:00:29):
because Aidan O'Connell was announced as the quarterback. The wise
guys are now just going to wait see how much
more they can, how much of a better price they
can get between now and kickoff on Friday. They're gonna
buy the Raiders. One team that I asked you to
look at last week, Carolina.

Speaker 2 (01:00:50):
Panthers work nine. What's the line?

Speaker 4 (01:00:53):
The line is six, So the Carolina they hosted the
Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Speaker 2 (01:00:58):
So the Carolina Panthers at home plus six against Tampa Bay. Yes, yes,
well I mean Tampa. The wise guys like it. I
don't say, well, Baker played perfect, So they come back
down to Earth. I'll be honest with you. I think
both Will Levis and Bryce Young for Tennessee and Carolina respectively,
in a weak college quarterback draft class, have extended their

(01:01:21):
starting franchise career one more year. I think Bryce Young
and Will Levis looked like, now, let's give them another year.

Speaker 4 (01:01:27):
I think that's one hundred percent accurate, which is what
Bryce Young has been the past few games. And so
you know in that Kansas City game, he was throwing darts, yeah,
and keeping them in the game, and every time you
looked up, they were driving. And the Bucks defense it's
not as good as Kansas City's. They're playing at home.

(01:01:49):
Six points in the division is a ton. You're getting
an inflation on the line because of what the Bucks
just did to the Giants. So the wise guys like
the Panthers. Look, I love the Panthers to start the year,
and they burn me consecutive weeks. So I sort of
stayed away from them and even publicly talking about them.

(01:02:10):
I went back on them big last week, and I
was glad that I did. I'm a little anxious going
back to the Well and the Panthers again, but I
have been the Panthers at plus six. I just feel
like it's still.

Speaker 1 (01:02:23):
A right spot.

Speaker 4 (01:02:23):
It's going to change, but I'm hoping that it doesn't
this week.

Speaker 2 (01:02:28):
So I don't throw your curves, but I want to
talk USC Notre Dame. Notre Dame getting plus seven and
a half so early in the week. I like Notre Dame.
Riley Leonard has cleaned up his game, no turnovers. They
are a team that runs the football. USC not great
defending the run, and I think they're well coached. I
like their culture. USC is playing a quarterback who started

(01:02:52):
the year on the bench, completes about fifty five percent
of his throws. Much looser and mistake prone than Miller Moss,
but more athletic. They can move the pocket, which Lincoln
Riley historically likes. USC's got some really nice perimeter weapons.
They're at home, no pressure, I mean, I mean, and
I think USC. They beat LSU, they beat UCLA, and

(01:03:16):
they had Penn State beat They're not bad. Every USC
game looks the exact same. It's close, they lead in
the fourth, then they even lose to Maryland. So my
take is I've gone back and said, you know what,
they're gonna lose, But I'm taking the hook. I'm taking
USC plus seven and a half. What are the sharp
saying on that?

Speaker 4 (01:03:34):
Yeah, if you're getting the hook at home, you should
be taking it. That's sort of the tipping point in
a game like this. The challenge with everything you've said
is the College Football Playoff. Notre Dame is now fifth
in the College Football Playoff rankings. Every game, every win,

(01:03:56):
every margin of victory, every op dick is going to
matter going forward. And I know, like they're locked in
with Oregon and Penn State and Ohio State and Texas,
like those are the teams that the College Football Playoff
is really thinking about as one through four. But Notre

(01:04:17):
Dame is still playing for something that matters in terms
of positioning with the people with the teams behind them.
So that's what scares me a little bit about this
game and USC. You're not wrong, but some of these
games you're talking about they were earlier in the year
and they were a different team, and there's been a
lot of turmoil with that organization the past month, between

(01:04:40):
the changing and the quarterbacks, between the fines, you know, people,
the recruits who have been decommitting and going to other places.
You know that USC team and culture much better than
I do. But that feels like an organization where they
need this to be a competitive game in a different

(01:05:01):
way than Notre Dame does. And Notre Dame is playing
for something right now that feels much much bigger to
me than what USC is playing for. I'm waffling here.
You take the hook, but it's not a game I
want any piece.

Speaker 2 (01:05:13):
Of all right, that's fair. Yeah, it's funny about this
transfer portal. Colorado, LSU, and USC have used it a lot,
and all three of them the season's always end disappointing.
Why because, in my opinion, this is one of my
theories that you can use the transfer portal to plug holes.

(01:05:34):
It's very hard to build a culture with all the
interlopers and newcomers, and so what happens over the course
of a season at USC, LSU, and Colorado when you
face adversity is when you need a great culture. And
they have better talent, but they don't have great cultures.
They don't have guys that have been together for four
years since high school, and so LSU, Colorado USC heavy

(01:05:57):
transfer portal, whereas a Notre Dame very little transfer portal,
great culture with Marcus Freeman, they had an early loss
that was awful. They've gotten stronger because their culture is better.
So you look at these teams that had early setbacks,
and setbacks can splinter locker rooms, and these heavy transfer

(01:06:22):
portal teams, they all get bad at the end of
the season. A lot of people start going their own way.
The nil guys are looking at the pros so Ole Miss,
by the way, everybody loves Old Miss. Yeah, what happens
against an inferior Florida team they don't play well. Guys
now are going to start heading in their own directions.
So that's what I think I've found from the transfer portal.

(01:06:43):
I can think two things. I like it, but I
wouldn't want to build around it. It's important, but I
don't want it to be my primary infrastructure.

Speaker 4 (01:06:52):
I'm going to give you an example that supports both
sides of your theory. Indiana Hoosiers, who I went to Indiana. Yeah,
I love him. I've been so excited for this team
all year. Obviously, heavy Portalnetti, they used the transfer portal heavily,

(01:07:12):
But what they did was they basically took the entire
team from James Madison and plugged them in. So yeah,
it worked for them. But the reason it worked for
them is because they maintained a culture that existed with
Kurt Signetti from where he was before and then brought
it to Bloomington. And that's translated in a very successful way.

(01:07:35):
And what's more interesting to me also about this is
I think there is an opportunity for teams like Indiana,
who have been middling teams to get the fourth fifth
year seniors who want to keep playing college football. They
might not be great NFL players, but they're incredibly effective, productive,

(01:07:58):
workman like college football players, and they're adults. So instead
of the sophomore five star who's not getting any playing
time in his transferring from Texas to Ole Miss, they're
getting the fourth year mac quarterback who was really good
and is time to see if he can stretch his
game to the next level. And he's an adult, and

(01:08:21):
that's just a different kind of player in college football.
I'm not saying now Indiana has a ceiling on this.
We saw it against Ohio State. You got to get
athletes and people on the edge and all that kind
of stuff. But I think you can build a really
successful program through the portal if you're getting guys who
are just great college football players and not necessarily the
highest ceiling athletes.

Speaker 1 (01:08:44):
The volume