Join Chris Welsh, Pat Fitmaurice and Jake Ciely as they highlight six players that projections love ahead of the 2026 fantasy football season!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Quinshon Judkins - 0:04:18
Colston Loveland - 0:07:39
FantasyPros Cheat Sheet Creator - 0:11:20
Breece Hall - 0:12:27
Jaxson Dart - 0:16:45
Hard Rock Bet - 0:22:02
Jameson Williams - 0:24:08
Rashee Rice - 0:29:56
Outro - 0:34:08
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
What's up, friend, Oz, and welcome into Fantasy Pros. This
is the Fantasy Football Podcast. Today on the show, we
are talking about projections. Who do projections love? What we're
going to be doing that. We've got Pat fitz Morris
and the Athletics own Jake Seely as they might not
love all of these players necessarily, but the projection sure do.
(00:21):
So we're going to have a discussion about some standout
projected players who these guys are excited about. We've got
six names for you, and I'm excited to dig into it.
I'm Chris Welsh. Thank you guys so much for hanging
out with us. We have the hate episode. Now it's
time for a little bit of love. And when I
think about love, I always think about Jake Seely, the
loving demeanor, the big smile, the happy everything. Jake, You're
(00:44):
what comes to mind when I think about love in projections.
I asked you in the last episode, as somebody that
has been doing projections forever, one of the main stays
in the industry for it, what was kind of a
negative or a fault? Since we were talking about hate,
so what is something that projections in your mind has
really nailed or gotten right. It could be something very simplistic,
(01:04):
statistically put you in the right direction. You name it.
What's something that you have really loved about making projections
helps take the.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Bias out of it, and you know, you go through
and you have whatever formula it takes to come up
with your projections, and even with the customers of projections,
there's a baseline of per play opportunities to performance that
we expect from all these players. I'm not saying they're
going to make one hundred percent right, they're not, but
it kind of helps you take that bias out. And
I reference it and it's going to sound like I'm
(01:34):
like victory lab in here, but it's not, because you know,
there was years ago, in twenty nineteen, I did my
projections and it'll always stick in my mind because it's
such a good example. Lamar Jackson spat out as the
number two quarterback and that was supposed to be his
breakout year, and I'm like, WHOA, that's a little aggressive.
Let me personally touch his projections, manipulate them myself and
push them down, and I'll push them down to a
(01:55):
happy spot like QB five. Well, I was dumb because
he was QB one that year if everybody remembers and
the cure, the projections were even a little bit low.
But that's the point is like the bias wasn't there.
The bias came in from me and saying like, man,
that feels kind of aggressive to project that. So while
you can go in and customize my rankings, remember like
that's your bias. This is supposed to give you the
(02:15):
baseline and kind of take all that out of the
picture to kind of give you like and again we
talked about in the last show, it's trying to give
you the best estimate, Like this happens eight out of
ten times, they're still going to be wrong, but it
kind of gives you that like, Okay, your opinion doesn't matter.
This is what it should be on like a historical
projection basis.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
FITZI, in the last episode, I did ask you kind
of about like you know, where you've used or do
you use projections as like a baseline or whatever. But
now let me make it a little bit different. Where
do you think you side when you do look at projections,
are you looking and paying attention to the negative or
more of the positive? Because I definitely think that is
A common trend for people is they will use Obviously
(02:56):
you could use projections. I think reference point is like
the greatest use case of it. But there will be
people that are more prone to be hyper focused on
the negative or the positive. What do you think has
a bigger impact on you the negative or positive projection
of a player?
Speaker 3 (03:10):
Although I'm generally looking for outliers either way, I think
I am more. It grabs my attention more when a
player I like is projected at numbers that I feel
are light. You know, when projections don't back up my
enthusiasm for a player, that's what always makes me take
the hardest second look at that player.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
Okay, well let's get to some enthusiasm. Then let's make
sure we can get pat up on the positive, not
focusing on that negative. Because these are projections. These are
players that projections love. And this first segment is about
who is exciting you this year? We had in the
last and the hate it was who are you really
scared about and worried about? But who is exciting you guys?
(03:53):
If you guys want to follow along with us, go
to fantasypros dot com slash projections. You can see what
they're looking like we've got aggregate projections as well, which
I think is super beneficial. Find the median line between
different pieces finnahypros dot com slash projections as well fantasypros
dot Com slash rankings if you want to see the
ECR when we kind of dig into that for some
of these players. But let's start with some excitement. Jake,
(04:15):
you were going to kick us off here with a
running back and quinch On Jutkins, So yeah, give us
the excitement and the big play on why we're so
excited this year.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
Just like no one has ever said Jake as your
favorite person and makes everything happy. Nobody's ever said I'm
super excited for nobody else that a Brown's player, But
why not do it? Quinch On Judkins. I thought I
was going to be above the projections. I thought I
was going to be one of the highest. We know
what this offense should be and expected to be under
(04:46):
similar to a Roman style with Monkin and that run
heavy belcow heavy for his lead option even with Samson involved,
but that gap power just everything that checks the box
for Samson or sorry Judkins, check check check check, even
some usage in the passing game and I'm looking carries,
I'm under yards, I'm over but rushing touchdowns, under, receptions,
(05:07):
under receiving yards under And this is not by a
big gap. Like I said, I'm actually pretty high. To
give you an idea, or I was gonna say, our side,
the fantasy pro side, has it for two ninety four,
one thousand, ninety one and eight point one. I have
for two seventy seven. I have him for eleven hundred
and thirty six. I actually think he's going to be
better on the ground on a per touch basis. But
eight touchdowns twenty two, one hundred and fifty one and
(05:28):
one in the receiving department. Uh, there's thirty one two
nineteen actually two twenty and a half a reception there
in the receiving department. But all that being said is
I have him Bell Cali. Fantasy pros projections have him
Bell Kali Er and I think that's the excitement here
is like, expect that Judkins those flashes we saw last year,
I think, you know, take a step forward this year.
(05:49):
No matter to the quarterback situation. I think that Judkins
can do well either way, especially in an offense that
is expected to be one of the more run heavier
offenses in the league.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
Paw, what do you think about quinch on Jutkins here?
I like that Bell cowiee is definitely that is how
I would talk about these type of players. But heavy
praise and heavy projections are you buying in?
Speaker 3 (06:12):
I do agree with the Bell Cowie projections that Jake
and Fantasy Pros both have. I am feeling like maybe
the yardage and touchdown projections are a little bit aggressive
for a guy who dislocated his ankle and fractured as
fibula in Week sixteen, and who's going to be playing
in a pretty bad offense and running behind a completely
(06:35):
remade offensive line made up of guys who've never really
played together before. So I don't know if I think
the efficiency is going to quite match what the Fantasy
Pros projections have, But I do agree that if he's
able to stay healthy, he should get plenty of touches.
Speaker 1 (06:51):
And again, looking at Judkins here, two ninety four one
thy ninety one eight touchdowns, thirty one catches to team
just under receiving touchdown.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
Let me ask you a question jump in here real quick.
Do you think their offense run game is better or worse?
Than last year. Are about the same because my only
pushback is like I same thing. It's like I saw
eight rushing touchdowns projected for me and then the same
thing on Fantasy President. I'm like, Wow, he ran for
seven and fourteen games last year, and I know he's
(07:22):
coming off that injury, but like, I think people forgot
that he was able to get in the endzone as
much as he did last season.
Speaker 3 (07:28):
Yeah, and I think it's probably no worse than a
push Okay, how effective that offense is. I mean it's
hard for it to get, you know, significantly worse than it.
Speaker 1 (07:36):
Was five all Right, I know this player is in
the excitement range for a lot of people. Fits. You're
definitely bringing that out here, and you're bringing him to
the table. Colson Loveland. So Colson Loveland coming in at
forty one overall tight end number three, and you are
pretty excited about the projections and the overall run. So
(07:56):
talk to us about Loveland.
Speaker 3 (07:58):
Yeah, So as far as we're Loveland ran in based
on ECR the projections, my rankings tight end three across
the board maybe for you guys too, but it's the
projected numbers that have me pretty excited. Eighty point four catches,
nine hundred and forty nine point four yards, seven point
(08:18):
zero tds. I think those are reasonable baseline expectations, and
it's exciting to think about what Lovelan's numbers could look
like if he outkicks those expectations. And I think he could,
because we're talking about a guy, after all, who last
season from Week nine on was tight end two and
fantasy scoring behind only Trey McBride, and who in his
last four games playoffs included average twelve targets, seven catches,
(08:44):
ninety four and a half receiving yards. So I just
I feel like he could have a big season, and
it's reassuring to look at the projections and see that
those numbers are also projecting him for a big season.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
It's also kind of reassuring, and you've got to be
careful about coach speak. You obviously want to like kind
of get it in one ear out the other. But
when you hear them talking about they're expanding the route
tree for Loveland this year, and they're just oohing and
aweing about it, then you can start to do what
you just said. You look at the projections and then
you think about the what ifs, and the what ifs
(09:16):
become a little bit more plausible when it's like route
trees expanding. They're falling in love with him in the offense,
Like it's one of those guys where it's like you
miss out on Bowers and it's like you can take
a third or fourth round shot at Loveland. You're still
getting the high end of tight end and maybe not
having the big costs. There's just so many big positives
to it. But what do you think, Jake, are you
in the same space of excitement around Colson Lovelin?
Speaker 2 (09:37):
Oh, I don't have them, third, and I don't have them. Fourth,
I don't have them second my projection said, and I'm
gonna leave my hands off of it, just like I
should have done with mar Jackson. But maybe that's the opposite.
Now you guys should change it. Spat him out as
number one at tight end. Wow, And that's wow. For
reference point. That's with twenty three percent of the target
(09:58):
share going to Burden, twenty two percent going to Donsay,
and twenty one point six percent going to Loveland. Because
that's also including thirteen point six included in the backfield.
This is despite having numerous options we like, and everybody's
probably seen the video by now, where I say buy
the cake, not the icing. If you're concerned, if you're
concerned that Loveland has a risk of being the third
guy or a donsay or whatever, I just say, keep
(10:19):
buying Caleb Williams. If we think this offense is going
to buy out or play out. But I'm still buying Lovelin.
And I think there's room where you could play with
this and turn them up to twenty four percent and
leads the entire team in targets and I own for
eighty three one thousand and four and eight point three
touchdowns like and honestly, I don't think that's the ceiling.
I think there's more for that. So if you want
(10:39):
to make the argument to let other people take Booers
and McBride and take Loveland the round after thumbs up,
go for it.
Speaker 1 (10:47):
Hands where we can see them. Pal, don't you dare
touch those projections. You keep them right where they are.
You listen to what you said. I love that. That's awesome.
That's a fun nugget. I don't know what to do
with ends up and don't touch the projections. What you're
gonna do with them. All right, So those are a
couple of guys that you guys are excited about. We're
now going to jump into projections versus ECR. So this
(11:07):
is looking at some of the ECR and obviously the
projections are going to be this a positive outcome. You
guys also have the ability here to be negative against
that positive. But these are four standout projections versus ECR.
Before we do it, though, I want to remind you
guys we're talking about projections. Projections can help you spot
value before the draft room catches up, and that's why
(11:28):
you guys can use the cheat sheet creator. You can
build custom rankings for your league, adjust players based on
your strategy, like oh, I don't know Colson Lovelin is
a must target. You can add tiers, tags, player notes,
and you can move projected back targets up your board
before draft day, so when one of these players falls
(11:49):
where he should go, you're already to take advantage of it.
Go to fantasypros dot com slash sheet or download the
Fantasy Pros app and you can build these customized cheat
sheets today very super helpful, and you can also build
a couple different ones to try out those strategies. When
you're getting in mock drafts, do it. Get your draft
set with the cheat sheets at fantasypros dot com slash cheat.
(12:10):
All right, let's jump into this. We've got a quarterback
or running back, a tight end, and then we've got
a flex spot here of another player that we can
talk about, so we will cover each one of those. Jake,
You're gonna kick us off here. This is going to
be a high projection. You get to take either range.
You pick this player out, and he is. Breace Hall
comes in at thirty six overall on ECR. He comes
(12:32):
in as RB fifteen. But what say you on the
love of the projections of Breas Hall this year?
Speaker 2 (12:39):
I love seeing it because I also love the projection
for Brishall is similar to my juck in Steak is
that I'm expecting him to feel pretty high on Breas Hall,
mostly because I've been on this very network and Bobman
just wanted to laugh himself out of the chair when
I said, Gino Smith isn't the worst thing in the
world in a super flex as your third quarterback, And
that's all I was suggesting to say. The point that
(13:00):
Gino Smith is getting Lamb basted for what went wrong
last year, when everybody's sitting there at the same time
saying the Raiders did everything wrong. And we look at
the Jets and if Gino can just be a capable
he doesn't even need to be middle of a pack quarterback,
but a capable quarterback for this team in this offense,
where Breece Hole is still one of the better running
backs on a per touch basis, even with the miserable
(13:21):
team he played for last year, miserable offense he played for.
The offensive line is still strong enough to hold them,
unlike the concerns we might have for Judkins. But Brice
Hole three hundred plus touches, like I had him very
close to three hundred, and I was expecting again to
be kind of the highest on Breee Hole. And the
biggest thing I think is because everybody's looking at Braylon Allen.
And I know Brian Allen just said he was like
at the slimmest two fifty he's ever been, or whatever,
(13:42):
it's best shape of your lifetime, of the year. But
Braylon Allen I look as kind of like the Blake
Korum to Kyraen Williams, where it's fine if he sees
some touches. I actually don't even think it'll be as
many touches as Kyen seeds to quorum. But if Hall
seeds some to Braylan Allen, it's not the end of
the world. Not every running back needs to touch the
bowl eighty percent of the time Ashton genty last year.
How did that work out? Like? So it really depends
(14:05):
on the offense in the style and everything there. And
Breshall is just still one of the best running backs
in the league because of also how much he does
in the receiving game. And so that's why I'm super
excited to see that. The projections are as excited as
I am to see that. Two hundred and sixty carries
and then forty seven and a half receptions tossed on
top of it. For all intentsive purposes, just about sixteen
(14:26):
hundred yards and nine touchdowns. I think that's well in
play if Gino is a capable quarterback.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
Yeah, one and fifty seven rushing yards, four hundred and
fifteen receiving everything you laid out, almost ten touchdowns. There's
some pretty aggressive stuff in there. Breshall comes in also
as the projected thirteenth running back. So ECR was what
did I say, fiftiesteen? The projected number makes him the thirteenth,
(14:51):
So there's a little bit of a of a battle
there happening, so he might be under he's under ranked
technically based off of where the projection.
Speaker 2 (14:58):
Yeah, I forgot to mention that. Actually, ha as my fourteenth.
I have Jeremiah Love one spot in front of them.
Speaker 1 (15:02):
I think that might have been so you're also yeah, yeah, yeah,
Jeremiah Love is one spot under on the projected side,
so you're also higher than ECR. Pat, what do you
think about Breescehall quarterback in question? Big productions projected?
Speaker 4 (15:14):
What say you?
Speaker 3 (15:15):
I'm more aligned with ECR than projections, But I'm also
pretty much on board with everything Jake said about Holly's
really good. This offensive line should be no worse than
average and potentially better than average. And you know, unlike
Scott Bogman, I would happily take Gino Smith as my
third quarterback in the Super Flew. Yeah, I'm totally fine
with that. The thing that Jake said where Jake has
(15:41):
lower volume in his projections than we have, I very
much agree with that, because why would you kill bres
Hall in a year that you know is you're not
going to the Promised Land and you've got, yeah, you've
got three first round picks and what should be a
loaded twenty twenty seven class. There's just really no incentive
(16:01):
for you to beat Breis Hall into the ground, especially
when you've got two potentially pretty decent backups behind him,
and not only Braylan Allen, but Isaiah Davis too. So
I just don't see if you know, the Jets have
their wits about them, which you know that's always up
for debate, but I just don't see the incentive to
give Breese Hall twenty touches a game this year.
Speaker 1 (16:21):
Bogman taking ricochet shots in this episode. But there's one
he will never back down about his hate for Geno Smith.
We've had years, a couple of years ago going on
about that. He has just a built in hate of
Geno Smith and that is never going to push it.
So O, Merita, Yeah, he can't get it doesn't matter.
You could just put you know, Prime Barry Sanders, Prime
Jerry Rice around him, and Gino's going to ruin everybody.
(16:44):
That makes me laugh, all right, Pat, you've got a
guy here. Projections versus e CR. It's Jackson Dart. Jackson
Dart with a seventy eight overall on the ECR just
kind of consensus overall board, but QB ten that is
not where projections end up putting him out. As a
matter of fact, I'll let you give the numbers, but
he comes in at quarterback six based off of the
(17:06):
consensus Fantasy Pros projection. So this is a very big
ECR versus projected number. You can talk about the numbers
and what you think about this, but let's hear about
Jackson Dart.
Speaker 3 (17:16):
Yeah, and the projections have Dart for about thirty six
hundred passing yards, twenty three and a half touchdown passes,
five hundred and forty two point six rushing yards, and
six point eight touchdown runs. And I could actually get
on board with those projections if Dart makes sixteen or
seventeen starts, and if Malik Neighbors plays at least, say
(17:37):
fifteen games. But as we all know, the vibes on
Neighbors recovery from a torn acl and tornmentiscus not great.
All off season kind of running around like Fred Sandford,
it's some team charity softball game, and you know, young
ones go see the reruns of Sanford and Son if
you want to understand that refer a.
Speaker 1 (17:59):
Lot of reruns being one these days to their pat.
Speaker 3 (18:01):
But yeah, yes, exactly. But and then Dart, Like we
can all agree, I think that Dart had a pretty
reckless style of play his rookie year, you know, and
took some hilacious hits, including one against the Bears that
gave him a concussion that knocked him out for a
couple of games. And maybe even if Dart stays mostly
(18:22):
healthy this season, I'm not gonna lie. I'm not feeling
all that great about Dart taking a big leap forward
in year two with Matt Nagy as the Giants offensive coordinator.
Speaker 1 (18:32):
All right, so Pat's a little bit negative against this.
So this is a big positive projection that not necessarily
but I'm probably closer into the ECR real quick, Pat,
are you closer to ECR range like QB nine or ten?
Speaker 3 (18:44):
I'm QB thirteen, okay, CR two. So yeah, these projections
are definitely you know, Rosie.
Speaker 1 (18:53):
Definitely Rosy, I mean, is the sixth QB. But Jake,
what do you think here? ECR versus projections versus Pat?
Speaker 2 (18:59):
Where do you lie It's funny is I'm on both sides,
so ECR I'm higher because once I miss on the
top six quarterbacks, I'm chasing the upside. Like I go
back to the conversation we had on the other shows
between Rock Party, Dart, Lawrence and all those type of guys,
I want to chase to one because of the rushing upside.
That's the biggest push for Dart is that I'm actually
(19:19):
above on consensus in his rushing yards and touchdowns, not
by a lot but a bit. I actually mostly in
the touchdowns I have from eight rushing touchdowns, just because
I don't think that's going to change a lot. And
of course if he gets hurt, there's the major risk.
I'm actually under in the passing and the projections are under.
I'm at QB twelve. I have him at QB nine
in rankings because I would take that chance. Like I
(19:40):
don't want QB twelve.
Speaker 1 (19:41):
I don't really want QB nine.
Speaker 2 (19:42):
I want the guy in that range that I think
has the chance to finish top six. So I'm gonna
take that shot. But I do agree a lot with fits.
The one pushback I'll always give with everybody talking about
Nagy is I actually like what Horbad did. He brought
on Naggy and Roman. Naggy sucks in the run department.
Roman sucks in the past department. He's giving them one
job to do and said, stop trying to do both.
You focus on the pass, you focus on the run,
(20:03):
and he might get the best out of both of them.
But it all goes back to the part that I
agree the most and why my projections are actually under
on the passing department from what Fansy pros has it's
because I don't think he's necessarily going to pass five
hundred to five five hundred and ten times. I have
him for four seventy nine, mostly because of this offense
and the health of Malik Neighbors and the question of
marks at wide receivers. There's a lot here that maybe
(20:25):
we're saying next year we should have seen it coming,
or maybe it's the second year one or second part
of the year when Neighbors is one hundred percent. But
I'm with Fits. I'm more wary on it all connecting
and hitting this season, despite the fact I will take
the chance because again I want to chase that top
six upside, even with the risk that I might be
looking for a new quarterback come week four.
Speaker 3 (20:47):
But the thing is, replacement value is so high this
year that if you decide you can't deal with Jackson Dart,
you're the guy you pick up Off Waivers might be
like Jared Goff, right, this here, GoF is my wife
my quarterback nineteen and I think Jared Goff is terrific.
Speaker 1 (21:03):
I feel like this is like the Tale as old
as Time type of thing where it's like, oh, you
missed out on the top tier quarterbacks, and it's like
who wants to mess with that middle range? You know,
who wants to mess with that cost? When it's like
the variance between QB seven and QB fourteen is like
super low, and then everyone starts. The only time that
those guys become values is when everybody's playing the same dance.
(21:25):
Who's going to break first? And you know, take the
quarterback six seven, eight or whatever, and everybody's waiting at
the latter part of it, then maybe you can find
a deal. But it's just like it's just not worth it,
so very interesting Break one. You have to go from differentials.
Speaker 2 (21:39):
Basically QB eight to QB eighteen last year to get
two points per game difference.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
I mean, yeah, I mean that's well said, great point
to the reason behind it. Love to see people's takes
on Jackson Dart here because I think you're going to
have a variance across the board here, big ECR differences,
especially from you two versus what the projections are looking like.
We've got two more players here. But first today our
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Speaker 1 (24:03):
Final two. We're going to a wide receiver. We actually
have a couple of wide receivers to talk about. Jake,
you are looking at the high projections of Jamison Williams,
who is wide receiver twenty five on ECR fiftieth overall,
but his projections on Fantasy pros put him as wide
receiver twenty two. So the twenty two highest projected wide receiver.
(24:24):
What say you, my friend?
Speaker 2 (24:25):
I say, I was trying to be mostly positive from
the last show, even though we were hating on projections
to mostly positives so far in this one too. Now, no, no, no, no, no, no,
I do not like this at all. Mostly we've already
seen this story. And you know, I even made the
joke on Twitter, like a bunch of people did, and
I used the thing from Thanos and I said, you know,
(24:46):
we got the breakout from Jamison Williams. What did it
cost you? It cost you? Silmaporta, Well, Sam laport is
back in play. Sam report is one hundred percent. Sam
Laportas also has an offensive coordinator who is strictly under
that Stefanski of loving tight ends, loving their usage, loving
twelve and thirteen sets even and it just makes me
(25:06):
get this feeling to my stomach of remember Jameson Williams
before we saw Dan Cambell take Dan Campbell take back
over the play calling that we're going back to that
Jamison Williams, or basically Jamison Williams from two years ago
when it was back to that Jamison Williams where he's
a great third option. But it's going to be Laporta
as the two, and that's Look, there's a world where
that doesn't happen. And Jamison is still the number two
(25:28):
on this team and Laporta is the three. And I'm
talking about opportunity sharing all that type of stuff, But
to put him here locked into a top twenty four
wide receiver, not accounting for that risk, especially with the
offensive style and a healthy Laporta one hundred percent healthy Laporta,
I just you got to factor some of that. In
my opinion, I think Jameson Williams needs to be further
down into the wide receiver threes, similar to old school
(25:51):
DeShawn Jackson, where you know what you're going to get
eight great games, but trying to predict when those are
going to happen is going to be the most frustrating
part of Jameson Williams. And I don't want to receiver
with that kind of inconsistency as my two, as my three.
I'll take them all day long, but I do not
love how aggressive these projections feel. I know they're not
super aggressive, but one thousand and fifty yards and six
and almost six and a half touchdowns feels like a
(26:13):
lot for somebody who could be the third option behind Laporta.
Speaker 1 (26:17):
Yeah, sixty three catches as you said, ten fifty three
six point three on the touchdowns, he is above Alex
peer Alec Peerce, Lat mcconkeye, Courtland Sutton, right below Terry McLaurin,
DeVante Adams, Teroa McMillan. He is within one.
Speaker 2 (26:31):
Above the mccaukee is bananas to me. Let me make
that clear. But even if he hits those numbers, let
me make that clear, Like, even if he hits those numbers,
because my projections aren't that far off, but I just
have him down at wide receiver twenty seven in my projections,
is it's going to be an inconsistent ride to get there?
Speaker 1 (26:47):
Yeah, I'm certain of this too. It's like, is this
stan Thiss is half PPR. It's weird because McLaurin is
projected for like ten more catches a touchdown and a
half more and a little bit less yards, but they're
within like one point of each.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
Wattles behind them behind him McLaurin, as you said, Vattey
Smith is behind like this is.
Speaker 1 (27:05):
There's a little bit of projected rushing yards because they
like to do that with Jamison Williams so that's kind
of factored in like slightly. But uh, Pat, what do
you think Jamison Williams. Are you on the opposite side
of this? Are you maybe a plus on Jamison Williams
in this offense or do you agree this is over
inflated for someone that is I mean, you guys are
saying three just before. I think it's probably more fourth
than the offense behind. Yeah. Yeah, we're throwing Gibbs in
(27:29):
there with Laporta and a Mona.
Speaker 3 (27:32):
I'm kind of on the side of the projections and
that's sort of where I am as far as my rankings.
I think Jake makes a solid point, like part of
the reason Laporta has sort of underperformed the last couple
of years, no doubt it's health related, but I also
think part of it is related to the breakout we've
seen from Jamison Williams the last couple of years, and
the breakout was largely Jamison Williams staying healthy. As far
(27:53):
as the play calling thing, so I think part of
the reason that Campbell yanked play calling duties away from
John Morton was that he wasn't using Jamison Williams the
way Campbell wanted him to. Be we started seeing Jamison
on more Crossers and he was killing it on Crossers.
He was averaging.
Speaker 2 (28:12):
But then why bring in Petsing? Is that's what's so
baffling to me fit.
Speaker 3 (28:15):
Right, But like, don't you think though, Jake? When Patsing
was interviewing, like part of it was like, Okay, how
are you going to use Jamison Williams? What is your plan?
And if that Plann didn't jibe with what Dan Campbell
thinks his best, I don't think Patsig would have gotten
the gig.
Speaker 2 (28:30):
It could be it could have been like I saw
what you do with McBride, so maybe Laporta can take
that next step, like don't disagree, like like for everybody
listening right now or watching, like I don't want to
get too hung up in you versus me on this one.
I think the biggest takeaway I want to make clear
is that where he's at is too aggressive overall because
(28:50):
it's just not factoring any risk, like for him to
be what you say, wide receiver twenty four to twenty five,
like that's him clearly being the number two and Laporta
being the four like you were saying, So that's.
Speaker 3 (29:03):
I agree, And the final point I'll make is that
I just don't think Jamison's value is not necessarily volume based.
He averaged exactly six targets a game last year, which
isn't that much, but for his career, he is averaging
ten point three yards per target. Like he is highly
efficient because of the big plays he makes and all
the damage he can do after the catch. This guy
(29:25):
is like a home run waiting to happen. So that's
why I can kind of get down with the projections.
Speaker 1 (29:31):
Well, I'll tell you the look at the overall and
I see Bucky Irving below him, I see Mike Evans
below him, and I'm all right, like, I don't I
don't know how much we're gonna vibe on it, but yeah,
he's a big explosive play. That's actually also my weird
take of like McLaurin and him. I look at that
and it's like McLaurin makes his you know, a lot
of his weight off of like big plays as well.
I just think there's a better chance of volume for
(29:52):
a guy like him over Jamison Williams, and Williams being
over him just stands out the last one fireworks here,
you know, or police sirens however you want to look
at it, Pat, you picked Rashi Rice. Rashi Rice comes
in at twenty seven overall wide receiver twelve. Here his projections.
I know this is going to be part of your
(30:13):
tel Here he is the sixth highest projected wide receiver.
So there is a clear stance here of people having
just overall concerns about what the hell is just going
on with him? In general, the projections are high. The
ECR it's still high, but it's like quite a big
difference between like what the projected numbers are. There's just
(30:33):
all this you know stuff in the off season. You
tell us do you love? Do you hate? Are the
off season things worrying you that there could be more
to come? What do you make of this very very
high projection on Rashi Rice?
Speaker 3 (30:45):
Yeah, if we're using AI for these projections, are we
feeding the AI some of these police reports and news
stories about like are.
Speaker 1 (30:53):
They pulling Jerry Rice numbers?
Speaker 5 (30:55):
Again?
Speaker 3 (30:55):
Yeah? I mean the project here's the projected stat line
we have for Rice. One hundred catches, one ninety yards,
eight point one touchdowns.
Speaker 1 (31:05):
All right, if we get actually eleven touchdowns, eight point
one is the rushing attempt.
Speaker 3 (31:09):
It's eleven oh eight point one is receiving and we
have them done for a couple of rushing too. I
didn't even see the rushing projectors. So yeah, are the
projections factoring in Rashid Rice's terrible personal judgment? Are they
factoring in the fact that he recently had a clean
up surgery on his knee and has been having to
do his rehab work in a Texas jail? Like, I
(31:31):
just don't feel the projections are baking in the injury
risk and the poor judgment risk here, simple as that.
Speaker 1 (31:38):
What about like this one baffles me? Yeah, go ahead, Jake,
just jump right into this receiver.
Speaker 2 (31:42):
I was gonna say, what about Patrick Mahomes being one
hundred percent Patrickholmes week one?
Speaker 3 (31:46):
Like I know everything, thank you.
Speaker 2 (31:47):
It's also that time of the year, like Patrick Mahomes,
I'm going to be ready one hundred percent for week one.
George Kittle, I'm going to be a ready one hundred
percent for a week like. It's that time of year.
Everybody's one hundred percent. And we look back in the
history and how many times do we get to Week one? Hell,
this time last year a no completely different player, but
at this time last year, it was Chris Godwin one
hundred percent ready week one, and we didn't see Chris
(32:08):
got until the middle of the season and now even
probably one hundred percent until this year. So I just
bring it up to say, is like, I think I
can't agree with fits any more on this. I don't
even have him as a wide receiver one of my
projections because I just think there are way too many
factors at risk and in play here to have for
shier Rice looking that optimistic.
Speaker 1 (32:28):
We oh, Jake, where do you have him?
Speaker 2 (32:29):
I have him for eighty seven, nine, seventy five, and eight.
Speaker 1 (32:33):
I meant rank, I meant oh rank, that's probably like fo.
Speaker 2 (32:35):
Well, that's two different stories too. So like he checks
in as a top twenty in projections rank, I think,
let me go back and I will tell you in
one second as I fill time and air to say like,
I will take Yeah, I see how I did there
wide receivers. But where do you have best?
Speaker 5 (32:50):
No?
Speaker 2 (32:50):
No, no, where do you have him?
Speaker 4 (32:51):
Was?
Speaker 1 (32:53):
This is what I wanted to know.
Speaker 2 (32:54):
Six, I'm actually higher than my projections because this goes
into play of where I'll take the risk because he
still has similar to the dark conversation I'm twelve because
once I get past and my ranks say, I feel
like AJ Brown is now the drop off. Initially I
would say, ceedee, the Lamb at seven was the drop off,
but now Brown at eight. After that, with like the
(33:14):
Nico Collins, Alave, McMillan, Flowers, Higgins, Rice, they could all
finish his wide receiver ones and all could finish his
wide receiver eighteen. But if he's a healthy Mahomes is healthy,
he stays on the field, he gets the target share.
I mean, we know Rashia Rice has top five upside,
and that's why I would take the chance if once
I get into that conversation.
Speaker 1 (33:32):
And names again, the number is one hundred point one
projected receptions one thousand, eighty nine yards, eleven receiving touchdowns
plus eight carries thirty eight yards and another rushing touchdown.
So that is a projected twelve touchdowns out of Rashi.
Speaker 2 (33:50):
Rice this year. He's got fourteen for his career.
Speaker 3 (33:53):
Show me the projector he's averaged basically half a touchdown
per game over his career. That seems pretty aggressive.
Speaker 1 (34:01):
I would say, I think the most important projection is
games played is what I want to see before I
start diving into the waters. There so very interesting stuff again,
projections Lovin' Quinchawn Judkins, Colson Lovelin, Brice Hall, Jackson, Dart
Jamison Williams, and Rashi Rice the takes all around the
board here. You guys can drop your comments below what
you guys think about some of these projections. Very very
(34:23):
fun experiment. You guys can also check out all of
these projections and you guys can drop us comments about
what you think is crazy, what you love and what
you hate at fantasypros dot com Slash projections. You can
see the ECR at fantasypros dot com Slash Rankings. You
can also just download the app and get everything. Download
the app and get you set for this season. Whether
you're getting into cheat sheets, mock drafts, you want to
(34:44):
check the rankings, projections, just make it easy on yourself,
but make sure Fantasy Pros is with you for the
athletics own Jake Seely That is Pat Fitzmorris. I'm Chris Welsh.
Thank you guys for hanging out with us, and hopefully
you have a great one and we'll talk to you
next time right here on Fantasy Pros.
Speaker 4 (34:58):
Thanks for listening. To the Fantasy Prose Fantasy Football podcast.
If you love the show. The best freeway to support
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Fantasy Pros
What's up, friend, Oz, and welcome into Fantasy Pros. This
is the Fantasy Football Podcast. Today on the show, we
are talking about projections. Who do projections love? What we're
going to be doing that. We've got Pat fitz Morris
and the Athletics own Jake Seely as they might not
love all of these players necessarily, but the projection sure do.
(00:21):
So we're going to have a discussion about some standout
projected players who these guys are excited about. We've got
six names for you, and I'm excited to dig into it.
I'm Chris Welsh. Thank you guys so much for hanging
out with us. We have the hate episode. Now it's
time for a little bit of love. And when I
think about love, I always think about Jake Seely, the
loving demeanor, the big smile, the happy everything. Jake, You're
(00:44):
what comes to mind when I think about love in projections.
I asked you in the last episode, as somebody that
has been doing projections forever, one of the main stays
in the industry for it, what was kind of a
negative or a fault? Since we were talking about hate,
so what is something that projections in your mind has
really nailed or gotten right. It could be something very simplistic,
(01:04):
statistically put you in the right direction. You name it.
What's something that you have really loved about making projections
helps take the.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Bias out of it, and you know, you go through
and you have whatever formula it takes to come up
with your projections, and even with the customers of projections,
there's a baseline of per play opportunities to performance that
we expect from all these players. I'm not saying they're
going to make one hundred percent right, they're not, but
it kind of helps you take that bias out. And
I reference it and it's going to sound like I'm
(01:34):
like victory lab in here, but it's not, because you know,
there was years ago, in twenty nineteen, I did my
projections and it'll always stick in my mind because it's
such a good example. Lamar Jackson spat out as the
number two quarterback and that was supposed to be his
breakout year, and I'm like, WHOA, that's a little aggressive.
Let me personally touch his projections, manipulate them myself and
push them down, and I'll push them down to a
(01:55):
happy spot like QB five. Well, I was dumb because
he was QB one that year if everybody remembers and
the cure, the projections were even a little bit low.
But that's the point is like the bias wasn't there.
The bias came in from me and saying like, man,
that feels kind of aggressive to project that. So while
you can go in and customize my rankings, remember like
that's your bias. This is supposed to give you the
(02:15):
baseline and kind of take all that out of the
picture to kind of give you like and again we
talked about in the last show, it's trying to give
you the best estimate, Like this happens eight out of
ten times, they're still going to be wrong, but it
kind of gives you that like, Okay, your opinion doesn't matter.
This is what it should be on like a historical
projection basis.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
FITZI, in the last episode, I did ask you kind
of about like you know, where you've used or do
you use projections as like a baseline or whatever. But
now let me make it a little bit different. Where
do you think you side when you do look at projections,
are you looking and paying attention to the negative or
more of the positive? Because I definitely think that is
A common trend for people is they will use Obviously
(02:56):
you could use projections. I think reference point is like
the greatest use case of it. But there will be
people that are more prone to be hyper focused on
the negative or the positive. What do you think has
a bigger impact on you the negative or positive projection
of a player?
Speaker 3 (03:10):
Although I'm generally looking for outliers either way, I think
I am more. It grabs my attention more when a
player I like is projected at numbers that I feel
are light. You know, when projections don't back up my
enthusiasm for a player, that's what always makes me take
the hardest second look at that player.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
Okay, well let's get to some enthusiasm. Then let's make
sure we can get pat up on the positive, not
focusing on that negative. Because these are projections. These are
players that projections love. And this first segment is about
who is exciting you this year? We had in the
last and the hate it was who are you really
scared about and worried about? But who is exciting you guys?
(03:53):
If you guys want to follow along with us, go
to fantasypros dot com slash projections. You can see what
they're looking like we've got aggregate projections as well, which
I think is super beneficial. Find the median line between
different pieces finnahypros dot com slash projections as well fantasypros
dot Com slash rankings if you want to see the
ECR when we kind of dig into that for some
of these players. But let's start with some excitement. Jake,
(04:15):
you were going to kick us off here with a
running back and quinch On Jutkins, So yeah, give us
the excitement and the big play on why we're so
excited this year.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
Just like no one has ever said Jake as your
favorite person and makes everything happy. Nobody's ever said I'm
super excited for nobody else that a Brown's player, But
why not do it? Quinch On Judkins. I thought I
was going to be above the projections. I thought I
was going to be one of the highest. We know
what this offense should be and expected to be under
(04:46):
similar to a Roman style with Monkin and that run
heavy belcow heavy for his lead option even with Samson involved,
but that gap power just everything that checks the box
for Samson or sorry Judkins, check check check check, even
some usage in the passing game and I'm looking carries,
I'm under yards, I'm over but rushing touchdowns, under, receptions,
(05:07):
under receiving yards under And this is not by a
big gap. Like I said, I'm actually pretty high. To
give you an idea, or I was gonna say, our side,
the fantasy pro side, has it for two ninety four,
one thousand, ninety one and eight point one. I have
for two seventy seven. I have him for eleven hundred
and thirty six. I actually think he's going to be
better on the ground on a per touch basis. But
eight touchdowns twenty two, one hundred and fifty one and
(05:28):
one in the receiving department. Uh, there's thirty one two
nineteen actually two twenty and a half a reception there
in the receiving department. But all that being said is
I have him Bell Cali. Fantasy pros projections have him
Bell Kali Er and I think that's the excitement here
is like, expect that Judkins those flashes we saw last year,
I think, you know, take a step forward this year.
(05:49):
No matter to the quarterback situation. I think that Judkins
can do well either way, especially in an offense that
is expected to be one of the more run heavier
offenses in the league.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
Paw, what do you think about quinch on Jutkins here?
I like that Bell cowiee is definitely that is how
I would talk about these type of players. But heavy
praise and heavy projections are you buying in?
Speaker 3 (06:12):
I do agree with the Bell Cowie projections that Jake
and Fantasy Pros both have. I am feeling like maybe
the yardage and touchdown projections are a little bit aggressive
for a guy who dislocated his ankle and fractured as
fibula in Week sixteen, and who's going to be playing
in a pretty bad offense and running behind a completely
(06:35):
remade offensive line made up of guys who've never really
played together before. So I don't know if I think
the efficiency is going to quite match what the Fantasy
Pros projections have, But I do agree that if he's
able to stay healthy, he should get plenty of touches.
Speaker 1 (06:51):
And again, looking at Judkins here, two ninety four one
thy ninety one eight touchdowns, thirty one catches to team
just under receiving touchdown.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
Let me ask you a question jump in here real quick.
Do you think their offense run game is better or worse?
Than last year. Are about the same because my only
pushback is like I same thing. It's like I saw
eight rushing touchdowns projected for me and then the same
thing on Fantasy President. I'm like, Wow, he ran for
seven and fourteen games last year, and I know he's
(07:22):
coming off that injury, but like, I think people forgot
that he was able to get in the endzone as
much as he did last season.
Speaker 3 (07:28):
Yeah, and I think it's probably no worse than a
push Okay, how effective that offense is. I mean it's
hard for it to get, you know, significantly worse than it.
Speaker 1 (07:36):
Was five all Right, I know this player is in
the excitement range for a lot of people. Fits. You're
definitely bringing that out here, and you're bringing him to
the table. Colson Loveland. So Colson Loveland coming in at
forty one overall tight end number three, and you are
pretty excited about the projections and the overall run. So
(07:56):
talk to us about Loveland.
Speaker 3 (07:58):
Yeah, So as far as we're Loveland ran in based
on ECR the projections, my rankings tight end three across
the board maybe for you guys too, but it's the
projected numbers that have me pretty excited. Eighty point four catches,
nine hundred and forty nine point four yards, seven point
(08:18):
zero tds. I think those are reasonable baseline expectations, and
it's exciting to think about what Lovelan's numbers could look
like if he outkicks those expectations. And I think he could,
because we're talking about a guy, after all, who last
season from Week nine on was tight end two and
fantasy scoring behind only Trey McBride, and who in his
last four games playoffs included average twelve targets, seven catches,
(08:44):
ninety four and a half receiving yards. So I just
I feel like he could have a big season, and
it's reassuring to look at the projections and see that
those numbers are also projecting him for a big season.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
It's also kind of reassuring, and you've got to be
careful about coach speak. You obviously want to like kind
of get it in one ear out the other. But
when you hear them talking about they're expanding the route
tree for Loveland this year, and they're just oohing and
aweing about it, then you can start to do what
you just said. You look at the projections and then
you think about the what ifs, and the what ifs
(09:16):
become a little bit more plausible when it's like route
trees expanding. They're falling in love with him in the offense,
Like it's one of those guys where it's like you
miss out on Bowers and it's like you can take
a third or fourth round shot at Loveland. You're still
getting the high end of tight end and maybe not
having the big costs. There's just so many big positives
to it. But what do you think, Jake, are you
in the same space of excitement around Colson Lovelin?
Speaker 2 (09:37):
Oh, I don't have them, third, and I don't have them. Fourth,
I don't have them second my projection said, and I'm
gonna leave my hands off of it, just like I
should have done with mar Jackson. But maybe that's the opposite.
Now you guys should change it. Spat him out as
number one at tight end. Wow, And that's wow. For
reference point. That's with twenty three percent of the target
(09:58):
share going to Burden, twenty two percent going to Donsay,
and twenty one point six percent going to Loveland. Because
that's also including thirteen point six included in the backfield.
This is despite having numerous options we like, and everybody's
probably seen the video by now, where I say buy
the cake, not the icing. If you're concerned, if you're
concerned that Loveland has a risk of being the third
guy or a donsay or whatever, I just say, keep
(10:19):
buying Caleb Williams. If we think this offense is going
to buy out or play out. But I'm still buying Lovelin.
And I think there's room where you could play with
this and turn them up to twenty four percent and
leads the entire team in targets and I own for
eighty three one thousand and four and eight point three
touchdowns like and honestly, I don't think that's the ceiling.
I think there's more for that. So if you want
(10:39):
to make the argument to let other people take Booers
and McBride and take Loveland the round after thumbs up,
go for it.
Speaker 1 (10:47):
Hands where we can see them. Pal, don't you dare
touch those projections. You keep them right where they are.
You listen to what you said. I love that. That's awesome.
That's a fun nugget. I don't know what to do
with ends up and don't touch the projections. What you're
gonna do with them. All right, So those are a
couple of guys that you guys are excited about. We're
now going to jump into projections versus ECR. So this
(11:07):
is looking at some of the ECR and obviously the
projections are going to be this a positive outcome. You
guys also have the ability here to be negative against
that positive. But these are four standout projections versus ECR.
Before we do it, though, I want to remind you
guys we're talking about projections. Projections can help you spot
value before the draft room catches up, and that's why
(11:28):
you guys can use the cheat sheet creator. You can
build custom rankings for your league, adjust players based on
your strategy, like oh, I don't know Colson Lovelin is
a must target. You can add tiers, tags, player notes,
and you can move projected back targets up your board
before draft day, so when one of these players falls
(11:49):
where he should go, you're already to take advantage of it.
Go to fantasypros dot com slash sheet or download the
Fantasy Pros app and you can build these customized cheat
sheets today very super helpful, and you can also build
a couple different ones to try out those strategies. When
you're getting in mock drafts, do it. Get your draft
set with the cheat sheets at fantasypros dot com slash cheat.
(12:10):
All right, let's jump into this. We've got a quarterback
or running back, a tight end, and then we've got
a flex spot here of another player that we can
talk about, so we will cover each one of those. Jake,
You're gonna kick us off here. This is going to
be a high projection. You get to take either range.
You pick this player out, and he is. Breace Hall
comes in at thirty six overall on ECR. He comes
(12:32):
in as RB fifteen. But what say you on the
love of the projections of Breas Hall this year?
Speaker 2 (12:39):
I love seeing it because I also love the projection
for Brishall is similar to my juck in Steak is
that I'm expecting him to feel pretty high on Breas Hall,
mostly because I've been on this very network and Bobman
just wanted to laugh himself out of the chair when
I said, Gino Smith isn't the worst thing in the
world in a super flex as your third quarterback, And
that's all I was suggesting to say. The point that
(13:00):
Gino Smith is getting Lamb basted for what went wrong
last year, when everybody's sitting there at the same time
saying the Raiders did everything wrong. And we look at
the Jets and if Gino can just be a capable
he doesn't even need to be middle of a pack quarterback,
but a capable quarterback for this team in this offense,
where Breece Hole is still one of the better running
backs on a per touch basis, even with the miserable
(13:21):
team he played for last year, miserable offense he played for.
The offensive line is still strong enough to hold them,
unlike the concerns we might have for Judkins. But Brice
Hole three hundred plus touches, like I had him very
close to three hundred, and I was expecting again to
be kind of the highest on Breee Hole. And the
biggest thing I think is because everybody's looking at Braylon Allen.
And I know Brian Allen just said he was like
at the slimmest two fifty he's ever been, or whatever,
(13:42):
it's best shape of your lifetime, of the year. But
Braylon Allen I look as kind of like the Blake
Korum to Kyraen Williams, where it's fine if he sees
some touches. I actually don't even think it'll be as
many touches as Kyen seeds to quorum. But if Hall
seeds some to Braylan Allen, it's not the end of
the world. Not every running back needs to touch the
bowl eighty percent of the time Ashton genty last year.
How did that work out? Like? So it really depends
(14:05):
on the offense in the style and everything there. And
Breshall is just still one of the best running backs
in the league because of also how much he does
in the receiving game. And so that's why I'm super
excited to see that. The projections are as excited as
I am to see that. Two hundred and sixty carries
and then forty seven and a half receptions tossed on
top of it. For all intentsive purposes, just about sixteen
(14:26):
hundred yards and nine touchdowns. I think that's well in
play if Gino is a capable quarterback.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
Yeah, one and fifty seven rushing yards, four hundred and
fifteen receiving everything you laid out, almost ten touchdowns. There's
some pretty aggressive stuff in there. Breshall comes in also
as the projected thirteenth running back. So ECR was what
did I say, fiftiesteen? The projected number makes him the thirteenth,
(14:51):
So there's a little bit of a of a battle
there happening, so he might be under he's under ranked
technically based off of where the projection.
Speaker 2 (14:58):
Yeah, I forgot to mention that. Actually, ha as my fourteenth.
I have Jeremiah Love one spot in front of them.
Speaker 1 (15:02):
I think that might have been so you're also yeah, yeah, yeah,
Jeremiah Love is one spot under on the projected side,
so you're also higher than ECR. Pat, what do you
think about Breescehall quarterback in question? Big productions projected?
Speaker 4 (15:14):
What say you?
Speaker 3 (15:15):
I'm more aligned with ECR than projections, But I'm also
pretty much on board with everything Jake said about Holly's
really good. This offensive line should be no worse than
average and potentially better than average. And you know, unlike
Scott Bogman, I would happily take Gino Smith as my
third quarterback in the Super Flew. Yeah, I'm totally fine
with that. The thing that Jake said where Jake has
(15:41):
lower volume in his projections than we have, I very
much agree with that, because why would you kill bres
Hall in a year that you know is you're not
going to the Promised Land and you've got, yeah, you've
got three first round picks and what should be a
loaded twenty twenty seven class. There's just really no incentive
(16:01):
for you to beat Breis Hall into the ground, especially
when you've got two potentially pretty decent backups behind him,
and not only Braylan Allen, but Isaiah Davis too. So
I just don't see if you know, the Jets have
their wits about them, which you know that's always up
for debate, but I just don't see the incentive to
give Breese Hall twenty touches a game this year.
Speaker 1 (16:21):
Bogman taking ricochet shots in this episode. But there's one
he will never back down about his hate for Geno Smith.
We've had years, a couple of years ago going on
about that. He has just a built in hate of
Geno Smith and that is never going to push it.
So O, Merita, Yeah, he can't get it doesn't matter.
You could just put you know, Prime Barry Sanders, Prime
Jerry Rice around him, and Gino's going to ruin everybody.
(16:44):
That makes me laugh, all right, Pat, you've got a
guy here. Projections versus e CR. It's Jackson Dart. Jackson
Dart with a seventy eight overall on the ECR just
kind of consensus overall board, but QB ten that is
not where projections end up putting him out. As a
matter of fact, I'll let you give the numbers, but
he comes in at quarterback six based off of the
(17:06):
consensus Fantasy Pros projection. So this is a very big
ECR versus projected number. You can talk about the numbers
and what you think about this, but let's hear about
Jackson Dart.
Speaker 3 (17:16):
Yeah, and the projections have Dart for about thirty six
hundred passing yards, twenty three and a half touchdown passes,
five hundred and forty two point six rushing yards, and
six point eight touchdown runs. And I could actually get
on board with those projections if Dart makes sixteen or
seventeen starts, and if Malik Neighbors plays at least, say
(17:37):
fifteen games. But as we all know, the vibes on
Neighbors recovery from a torn acl and tornmentiscus not great.
All off season kind of running around like Fred Sandford,
it's some team charity softball game, and you know, young
ones go see the reruns of Sanford and Son if
you want to understand that refer a.
Speaker 1 (17:59):
Lot of reruns being one these days to their pat.
Speaker 3 (18:01):
But yeah, yes, exactly. But and then Dart, Like we
can all agree, I think that Dart had a pretty
reckless style of play his rookie year, you know, and
took some hilacious hits, including one against the Bears that
gave him a concussion that knocked him out for a
couple of games. And maybe even if Dart stays mostly
(18:22):
healthy this season, I'm not gonna lie. I'm not feeling
all that great about Dart taking a big leap forward
in year two with Matt Nagy as the Giants offensive coordinator.
Speaker 1 (18:32):
All right, so Pat's a little bit negative against this.
So this is a big positive projection that not necessarily
but I'm probably closer into the ECR real quick, Pat,
are you closer to ECR range like QB nine or ten?
Speaker 3 (18:44):
I'm QB thirteen, okay, CR two. So yeah, these projections
are definitely you know, Rosie.
Speaker 1 (18:53):
Definitely Rosy, I mean, is the sixth QB. But Jake,
what do you think here? ECR versus projections versus Pat?
Speaker 2 (18:59):
Where do you lie It's funny is I'm on both sides,
so ECR I'm higher because once I miss on the
top six quarterbacks, I'm chasing the upside. Like I go
back to the conversation we had on the other shows
between Rock Party, Dart, Lawrence and all those type of guys,
I want to chase to one because of the rushing upside.
That's the biggest push for Dart is that I'm actually
(19:19):
above on consensus in his rushing yards and touchdowns, not
by a lot but a bit. I actually mostly in
the touchdowns I have from eight rushing touchdowns, just because
I don't think that's going to change a lot. And
of course if he gets hurt, there's the major risk.
I'm actually under in the passing and the projections are under.
I'm at QB twelve. I have him at QB nine
in rankings because I would take that chance. Like I
(19:40):
don't want QB twelve.
Speaker 1 (19:41):
I don't really want QB nine.
Speaker 2 (19:42):
I want the guy in that range that I think
has the chance to finish top six. So I'm gonna
take that shot. But I do agree a lot with fits.
The one pushback I'll always give with everybody talking about
Nagy is I actually like what Horbad did. He brought
on Naggy and Roman. Naggy sucks in the run department.
Roman sucks in the past department. He's giving them one
job to do and said, stop trying to do both.
You focus on the pass, you focus on the run,
(20:03):
and he might get the best out of both of them.
But it all goes back to the part that I
agree the most and why my projections are actually under
on the passing department from what Fansy pros has it's
because I don't think he's necessarily going to pass five
hundred to five five hundred and ten times. I have
him for four seventy nine, mostly because of this offense
and the health of Malik Neighbors and the question of
marks at wide receivers. There's a lot here that maybe
(20:25):
we're saying next year we should have seen it coming,
or maybe it's the second year one or second part
of the year when Neighbors is one hundred percent. But
I'm with Fits. I'm more wary on it all connecting
and hitting this season, despite the fact I will take
the chance because again I want to chase that top
six upside, even with the risk that I might be
looking for a new quarterback come week four.
Speaker 3 (20:47):
But the thing is, replacement value is so high this
year that if you decide you can't deal with Jackson Dart,
you're the guy you pick up Off Waivers might be
like Jared Goff, right, this here, GoF is my wife
my quarterback nineteen and I think Jared Goff is terrific.
Speaker 1 (21:03):
I feel like this is like the Tale as old
as Time type of thing where it's like, oh, you
missed out on the top tier quarterbacks, and it's like
who wants to mess with that middle range? You know,
who wants to mess with that cost? When it's like
the variance between QB seven and QB fourteen is like
super low, and then everyone starts. The only time that
those guys become values is when everybody's playing the same dance.
(21:25):
Who's going to break first? And you know, take the
quarterback six seven, eight or whatever, and everybody's waiting at
the latter part of it, then maybe you can find
a deal. But it's just like it's just not worth it,
so very interesting Break one. You have to go from differentials.
Speaker 2 (21:39):
Basically QB eight to QB eighteen last year to get
two points per game difference.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
I mean, yeah, I mean that's well said, great point
to the reason behind it. Love to see people's takes
on Jackson Dart here because I think you're going to
have a variance across the board here, big ECR differences,
especially from you two versus what the projections are looking like.
We've got two more players here. But first today our
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Speaker 1 (24:03):
Final two. We're going to a wide receiver. We actually
have a couple of wide receivers to talk about. Jake,
you are looking at the high projections of Jamison Williams,
who is wide receiver twenty five on ECR fiftieth overall,
but his projections on Fantasy pros put him as wide
receiver twenty two. So the twenty two highest projected wide receiver.
(24:24):
What say you, my friend?
Speaker 2 (24:25):
I say, I was trying to be mostly positive from
the last show, even though we were hating on projections
to mostly positives so far in this one too. Now, no, no, no, no, no, no,
I do not like this at all. Mostly we've already
seen this story. And you know, I even made the
joke on Twitter, like a bunch of people did, and
I used the thing from Thanos and I said, you know,
(24:46):
we got the breakout from Jamison Williams. What did it
cost you? It cost you? Silmaporta, Well, Sam laport is
back in play. Sam report is one hundred percent. Sam
Laportas also has an offensive coordinator who is strictly under
that Stefanski of loving tight ends, loving their usage, loving
twelve and thirteen sets even and it just makes me
(25:06):
get this feeling to my stomach of remember Jameson Williams
before we saw Dan Cambell take Dan Campbell take back
over the play calling that we're going back to that
Jamison Williams, or basically Jamison Williams from two years ago
when it was back to that Jamison Williams where he's
a great third option. But it's going to be Laporta
as the two, and that's Look, there's a world where
that doesn't happen. And Jamison is still the number two
(25:28):
on this team and Laporta is the three. And I'm
talking about opportunity sharing all that type of stuff, But
to put him here locked into a top twenty four
wide receiver, not accounting for that risk, especially with the
offensive style and a healthy Laporta one hundred percent healthy Laporta,
I just you got to factor some of that. In
my opinion, I think Jameson Williams needs to be further
down into the wide receiver threes, similar to old school
(25:51):
DeShawn Jackson, where you know what you're going to get
eight great games, but trying to predict when those are
going to happen is going to be the most frustrating
part of Jameson Williams. And I don't want to receiver
with that kind of inconsistency as my two, as my three.
I'll take them all day long, but I do not
love how aggressive these projections feel. I know they're not
super aggressive, but one thousand and fifty yards and six
and almost six and a half touchdowns feels like a
(26:13):
lot for somebody who could be the third option behind Laporta.
Speaker 1 (26:17):
Yeah, sixty three catches as you said, ten fifty three
six point three on the touchdowns, he is above Alex
peer Alec Peerce, Lat mcconkeye, Courtland Sutton, right below Terry McLaurin,
DeVante Adams, Teroa McMillan. He is within one.
Speaker 2 (26:31):
Above the mccaukee is bananas to me. Let me make
that clear. But even if he hits those numbers, let
me make that clear, Like, even if he hits those numbers,
because my projections aren't that far off, but I just
have him down at wide receiver twenty seven in my projections,
is it's going to be an inconsistent ride to get there?
Speaker 1 (26:47):
Yeah, I'm certain of this too. It's like, is this
stan Thiss is half PPR. It's weird because McLaurin is
projected for like ten more catches a touchdown and a
half more and a little bit less yards, but they're
within like one point of each.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
Wattles behind them behind him McLaurin, as you said, Vattey
Smith is behind like this is.
Speaker 1 (27:05):
There's a little bit of projected rushing yards because they
like to do that with Jamison Williams so that's kind
of factored in like slightly. But uh, Pat, what do
you think Jamison Williams. Are you on the opposite side
of this? Are you maybe a plus on Jamison Williams
in this offense or do you agree this is over
inflated for someone that is I mean, you guys are
saying three just before. I think it's probably more fourth
than the offense behind. Yeah. Yeah, we're throwing Gibbs in
(27:29):
there with Laporta and a Mona.
Speaker 3 (27:32):
I'm kind of on the side of the projections and
that's sort of where I am as far as my rankings.
I think Jake makes a solid point, like part of
the reason Laporta has sort of underperformed the last couple
of years, no doubt it's health related, but I also
think part of it is related to the breakout we've
seen from Jamison Williams the last couple of years, and
the breakout was largely Jamison Williams staying healthy. As far
(27:53):
as the play calling thing, so I think part of
the reason that Campbell yanked play calling duties away from
John Morton was that he wasn't using Jamison Williams the
way Campbell wanted him to. Be we started seeing Jamison
on more Crossers and he was killing it on Crossers.
He was averaging.
Speaker 2 (28:12):
But then why bring in Petsing? Is that's what's so
baffling to me fit.
Speaker 3 (28:15):
Right, But like, don't you think though, Jake? When Patsing
was interviewing, like part of it was like, Okay, how
are you going to use Jamison Williams? What is your plan?
And if that Plann didn't jibe with what Dan Campbell
thinks his best, I don't think Patsig would have gotten
the gig.
Speaker 2 (28:30):
It could be it could have been like I saw
what you do with McBride, so maybe Laporta can take
that next step, like don't disagree, like like for everybody
listening right now or watching, like I don't want to
get too hung up in you versus me on this one.
I think the biggest takeaway I want to make clear
is that where he's at is too aggressive overall because
(28:50):
it's just not factoring any risk, like for him to
be what you say, wide receiver twenty four to twenty five,
like that's him clearly being the number two and Laporta
being the four like you were saying, So that's.
Speaker 3 (29:03):
I agree, And the final point I'll make is that
I just don't think Jamison's value is not necessarily volume based.
He averaged exactly six targets a game last year, which
isn't that much, but for his career, he is averaging
ten point three yards per target. Like he is highly
efficient because of the big plays he makes and all
the damage he can do after the catch. This guy
(29:25):
is like a home run waiting to happen. So that's
why I can kind of get down with the projections.
Speaker 1 (29:31):
Well, I'll tell you the look at the overall and
I see Bucky Irving below him, I see Mike Evans
below him, and I'm all right, like, I don't I
don't know how much we're gonna vibe on it, but yeah,
he's a big explosive play. That's actually also my weird
take of like McLaurin and him. I look at that
and it's like McLaurin makes his you know, a lot
of his weight off of like big plays as well.
I just think there's a better chance of volume for
(29:52):
a guy like him over Jamison Williams, and Williams being
over him just stands out the last one fireworks here,
you know, or police sirens however you want to look
at it, Pat, you picked Rashi Rice. Rashi Rice comes
in at twenty seven overall wide receiver twelve. Here his projections.
I know this is going to be part of your
(30:13):
tel Here he is the sixth highest projected wide receiver.
So there is a clear stance here of people having
just overall concerns about what the hell is just going
on with him? In general, the projections are high. The
ECR it's still high, but it's like quite a big
difference between like what the projected numbers are. There's just
(30:33):
all this you know stuff in the off season. You
tell us do you love? Do you hate? Are the
off season things worrying you that there could be more
to come? What do you make of this very very
high projection on Rashi Rice?
Speaker 3 (30:45):
Yeah, if we're using AI for these projections, are we
feeding the AI some of these police reports and news
stories about like are.
Speaker 1 (30:53):
They pulling Jerry Rice numbers?
Speaker 5 (30:55):
Again?
Speaker 3 (30:55):
Yeah? I mean the project here's the projected stat line
we have for Rice. One hundred catches, one ninety yards,
eight point one touchdowns.
Speaker 1 (31:05):
All right, if we get actually eleven touchdowns, eight point
one is the rushing attempt.
Speaker 3 (31:09):
It's eleven oh eight point one is receiving and we
have them done for a couple of rushing too. I
didn't even see the rushing projectors. So yeah, are the
projections factoring in Rashid Rice's terrible personal judgment? Are they
factoring in the fact that he recently had a clean
up surgery on his knee and has been having to
do his rehab work in a Texas jail? Like, I
(31:31):
just don't feel the projections are baking in the injury
risk and the poor judgment risk here, simple as that.
Speaker 1 (31:38):
What about like this one baffles me? Yeah, go ahead, Jake,
just jump right into this receiver.
Speaker 2 (31:42):
I was gonna say, what about Patrick Mahomes being one
hundred percent Patrickholmes week one?
Speaker 3 (31:46):
Like I know everything, thank you.
Speaker 2 (31:47):
It's also that time of the year, like Patrick Mahomes,
I'm going to be ready one hundred percent for week one.
George Kittle, I'm going to be a ready one hundred
percent for a week like. It's that time of year.
Everybody's one hundred percent. And we look back in the
history and how many times do we get to Week one? Hell,
this time last year a no completely different player, but
at this time last year, it was Chris Godwin one
hundred percent ready week one, and we didn't see Chris
(32:08):
got until the middle of the season and now even
probably one hundred percent until this year. So I just
bring it up to say, is like, I think I
can't agree with fits any more on this. I don't
even have him as a wide receiver one of my
projections because I just think there are way too many
factors at risk and in play here to have for
shier Rice looking that optimistic.
Speaker 1 (32:28):
We oh, Jake, where do you have him?
Speaker 2 (32:29):
I have him for eighty seven, nine, seventy five, and eight.
Speaker 1 (32:33):
I meant rank, I meant oh rank, that's probably like fo.
Speaker 2 (32:35):
Well, that's two different stories too. So like he checks
in as a top twenty in projections rank, I think,
let me go back and I will tell you in
one second as I fill time and air to say like,
I will take Yeah, I see how I did there
wide receivers. But where do you have best?
Speaker 5 (32:50):
No?
Speaker 2 (32:50):
No, no, where do you have him?
Speaker 4 (32:51):
Was?
Speaker 1 (32:53):
This is what I wanted to know.
Speaker 2 (32:54):
Six, I'm actually higher than my projections because this goes
into play of where I'll take the risk because he
still has similar to the dark conversation I'm twelve because
once I get past and my ranks say, I feel
like AJ Brown is now the drop off. Initially I
would say, ceedee, the Lamb at seven was the drop off,
but now Brown at eight. After that, with like the
(33:14):
Nico Collins, Alave, McMillan, Flowers, Higgins, Rice, they could all
finish his wide receiver ones and all could finish his
wide receiver eighteen. But if he's a healthy Mahomes is healthy,
he stays on the field, he gets the target share.
I mean, we know Rashia Rice has top five upside,
and that's why I would take the chance if once
I get into that conversation.
Speaker 1 (33:32):
And names again, the number is one hundred point one
projected receptions one thousand, eighty nine yards, eleven receiving touchdowns
plus eight carries thirty eight yards and another rushing touchdown.
So that is a projected twelve touchdowns out of Rashi.
Speaker 2 (33:50):
Rice this year. He's got fourteen for his career.
Speaker 3 (33:53):
Show me the projector he's averaged basically half a touchdown
per game over his career. That seems pretty aggressive.
Speaker 1 (34:01):
I would say, I think the most important projection is
games played is what I want to see before I
start diving into the waters. There so very interesting stuff again,
projections Lovin' Quinchawn Judkins, Colson Lovelin, Brice Hall, Jackson, Dart
Jamison Williams, and Rashi Rice the takes all around the
board here. You guys can drop your comments below what
you guys think about some of these projections. Very very
(34:23):
fun experiment. You guys can also check out all of
these projections and you guys can drop us comments about
what you think is crazy, what you love and what
you hate at fantasypros dot com Slash projections. You can
see the ECR at fantasypros dot com Slash Rankings. You
can also just download the app and get everything. Download
the app and get you set for this season. Whether
you're getting into cheat sheets, mock drafts, you want to
(34:44):
check the rankings, projections, just make it easy on yourself,
but make sure Fantasy Pros is with you for the
athletics own Jake Seely That is Pat Fitzmorris. I'm Chris Welsh.
Thank you guys for hanging out with us, and hopefully
you have a great one and we'll talk to you
next time right here on Fantasy Pros.
Speaker 4 (34:58):
Thanks for listening. To the Fantasy Prose Fantasy Football podcast.
If you love the show. The best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts
at fantasypros dot com slash review or on Spotify. Follow
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Betrayal Weekly
Betrayal Weekly is back for a new season. Every Thursday, Betrayal Weekly shares first-hand accounts of broken trust, shocking deceptions, and the trail of destruction they leave behind. Hosted by Andrea Gunning, this weekly ongoing series digs into real-life stories of betrayal and the aftermath. From stories of double lives to dark discoveries, these are cautionary tales and accounts of resilience against all odds. From the producers of the critically acclaimed Betrayal series, Betrayal Weekly drops new episodes every Thursday. If you would like to share your story, you can reach out to the Betrayal Team by emailing them at betrayalpod@gmail.com and follow us on Instagram at @betrayalpod and @glasspodcasts. Please join our Substack for additional exclusive content, curated book recommendations, and community discussions. Sign up FREE by clicking this link Beyond Betrayal Substack. Join our community dedicated to truth, resilience, and healing. Your voice matters! Be a part of our Betrayal journey on Substack.