Safe doesn't have to mean boring.
Alfredo Brown, Pat Fitzmaurice and Derek Brown break down six of the safest fantasy football draft picks for the 2026 season. Whether you're looking for reliable weekly production or players who can outperform their ADP while minimizing risk, these are the high-floor stars you can confidently build around.
The crew discusses why Tetairoa McMillan is already one of fantasy's safest young receivers, whether Derrick Henry can continue defying Father Time, why David Montgomery could dominate touches in Houston, Terry McLaurin's outlook under a new offensive coordinator, Jared Goff's incredible year-to-year consistency, and why Travis Kelce remains a dependable fantasy tight end despite his age.
If you're trying to avoid early-round mistakes while maximizing weekly consistency, this episode is packed with actionable draft advice.
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Pat - Tetairoa McMillan (WR CAR) - 0:00:31
DBro - Derrick Henry (RB - BAL) - 0:04:03
Pat - David Montgomery (RB - HOU) - 0:08:41
DBro - Terry McLaurin (RB - WAS) - 0:14:07
Pat - Jared Goff (QB - DET) - 0:18:37
DBro - Travis Kelce (TE - KC) - 0:21:47
Outro - 0:23:28
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Alfredo Brown,
joined today by Pat Fitzmorris and Derek Brown. Today we
are talking the safest fantasy football draft picks, high floor
players that you can trust when you get into your drafts.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
And you know, guys, my friends.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
Always ask me like, I just need the guy that
could be consistent.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
You set it forget it starter.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
But I also think some of these guys can be
high ceiling guys too. It's not just about high floor.
So I think you, guys, I'm looking at the list here.
We've got some really good players on this list, and Pat,
I want to start with you, and we're going to
start with one of the guys that has the highest
adp here. So why don't you kick us off with
the first player.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
It's Tetoha McMillan. And some people might think this is
kind of an odd choice for a safe pick. Teto
McMillan has only been in the league for one year
and he plays with the quarterback Bryce Young, who doesn't
exactly inspire confidence within the fantasy community. But the QB situation,
Alfredo is exactly the reason why I think McMillan is
(00:58):
one of the safer picks. You can make it fantasy drafts.
Bryce Young averaged one hundred and eighty eight point two
passing yards a game and six point four yards per
attempt last season, terrible numbers. Panthers were twenty seventh in
passing yardage. Bryce Young threw twenty five or fewer passes
in half of his sixteen starts last season. They were
trying to hide him in that offense, and yet Tedoroh
(01:20):
McMillan still hit one thousand yards. As a rookie, t
mac had a twenty five point four percent target chair
accounted for thirty point seven percent of the Panthers receiving yardage.
He did that at the age of twenty two. T
mack was a top ten draft pick who was also
in early declare. He only played three seasons at Arizona State,
where he also had an enormous target and yardage share
(01:41):
in his last two college seasons. He was wide receiver
fifteen last year in a pretty sickly Eco system. What
if he makes a big year two jump, or what
if Bryce Young actually improves. I know that seems like
a stretch, but Bryce Young just turned twenty five, and
Dave Canals is a pretty good offensive designer. I think
there might come a time when we look at t
I McMillan is like a first or second round value
(02:02):
in fantasy drafts.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
He's just that good.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
The fact that he was able to give US wide
receiver two numbers last year in such a suboptimal environment
suggests that the floor is pretty safe and the potential
ceiling is pretty enticing.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
Two.
Speaker 1 (02:16):
Yeah, an expert consensus rank has them at wide receiver
fifteen right now. ADP has him at wide receiver fourteen.
Somewhere around that round three, round four turn deepro. You
and I were at the Flex Draft with Jake Seely
in New York. He I had the chance to take
Tedro and McMillan at the four oh one in my draft,
I passed that. I went Luther Burdon instead, but McMillan
(02:36):
went just a few spots later at the four oh three.
Speaker 2 (02:40):
How do you like Tedroe McMillan there.
Speaker 1 (02:42):
In the fourth round, Because, I mean, depending on your build,
if you're going wide receiver heavy, you're talking about a
guy who might be the wide receiver three on your
roster if you're starting that way.
Speaker 4 (02:49):
Oh.
Speaker 5 (02:50):
Absolutely, And I think like my reason I'm a little
bit lower on Tet this year, and it has nothing
to do with Tet. For everything that fits you laid out,
Ted is an amazing talent. Like going back into yester year,
you know, hindsight was he was my wide receiver one
in that draft class. The entire time, My only concerns
are about Tet. Aren't about Tet. It's about Bryce Shung,
the passing volume and the ceiling and floor of Bryce
(03:12):
Shung as a passer. So I think, but what Fitzi
lays out here is that when you're looking at safe players,
we're talking about betting on talent and volume and the
ability for that guy to earn volume. And again, like,
I don't want to discount be too too low on Tet,
even though I'm a little bit behind consensus to the
point where everybody's missing him, because Ted does have the
(03:33):
talent and we do want to bet on second.
Speaker 4 (03:35):
Year wide receivers.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
Yeah, And something that Pat mentioned is like what if
the Panthers are better this year? Right, Like this could
be an offense that does continue to improve each year.
We're adding Jonathan Brooks back into the mix. Chris brasl
out for the year now, So another guy who could
have been taking targets away or potentially opening things up.
We'll see how that ends up working, because it was
talk of McMillan going into the slot, but he's still
(03:57):
he's a safe player, continues to have a high upside
going into this year. So I like that pick from you,
Pat Debro. We we're going to the other end of
the spectrum here. We started with a young wide receiver,
potentially upstart offense to an offense that's been good for years.
Maybe he kind of hit a down season last year.
Older guy running back, give us your first guy here.
Speaker 5 (04:19):
He's a mature running back, but he's not old in
terms of what he's doing in production wise on the field.
Speaker 4 (04:23):
Baby. And I'm just I'm tired of betting against him.
Speaker 5 (04:27):
I just I raised the white flag about three years
ago and I said, look, Derek Henry's gonna be an
RB one until he decides to hang up the cleats.
You can't push back about it, like we know what
we're gonna get. And like again we're talking about safety.
I mean, dude, Like, if he's healthy, Derrick Henry, we
know what we're getting. Like, since twenty eighteen, this guy
has given us. Every season that he's played at least
(04:48):
fifteen games, he's given as at least two hundred fifteen carries,
at least a thousand and fifty nine rushing yards, and
twelve total touchdowns.
Speaker 4 (04:54):
And last year there was no falloff.
Speaker 5 (04:57):
Amongst forty nine qualifying backs, this dude was sixteenth in
yards of contact per attempt and seventh in an explosive
run rate. So while he is getting a little bit older,
there's no falloff in any one of his metrics. And
we know we're getting out of Derrick Henry. It's a
crap ton of early down volume. It's all the touchdowns
that you want. Whatever he does in the passing game
is icing on top of the cake. But again, an
(05:19):
RB twelve or higher every single year. And like we
talked about, safe doesn't have to mean you're devoid of
upside like Derrick Henry.
Speaker 4 (05:27):
If he catches any more.
Speaker 5 (05:28):
Passes in this Doyle offense this year could be a
top five back and not just like Okay Locke set
forget RB one.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
Yeah, and you mentioned Decklan Doyle coming in as the
new offensive coordinator running this thing. He comes from the
Ben Johnson coaching tree where you talk about him not
having really any kind of regression in terms of stats
that are going downhill for him.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
But Henry actually didn't score as many touchdowns as he
normally does.
Speaker 1 (05:53):
So if we can get a positive regression this year
where Derrick Henry is getting dare I say the David
Montgomery role in the Raven's sofense, you know, like, imagine
that Derrick Henry getting back to anywhere near having double
digit touchdowns. We're talking about a guy that absolutely smashes
his RB twelve, uh RB eleven ADP his RB twelve
ECR rank. Right now, Pat, when you look at a
(06:14):
guy like Henry, though, how worried do you get about
that age cliff because it is just a real thing.
But I guess with Derrick Henry that doesn't really exist.
Speaker 4 (06:23):
Yeah, a little worried.
Speaker 3 (06:24):
I mean, he might be just a different species of
human being and we should just throw the age concerns
out the window. Like I know there is a case
for that because he has been one of the safest
running backs you could take. But we have a car
right now, a third car that we let our teenage
sun drive. It's got over two hundred thousand miles on it.
(06:45):
This thing has been running great. All we do is
change the oil, no problems whatsoever. We feel totally safe
having him, you know, taken around the neighborhood, drive to
friends places.
Speaker 2 (06:56):
Drive to play golf.
Speaker 3 (06:58):
I don't want him taking that thing cross country with
over two hundred thousand miles on it.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
That's my only issue.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
Like, at some point we're going to run into a
mechanical issue here, and I just I feel like we're
tempting fate with Derrick Henry and things look great until
they don't. And that's gonna happen abruptly at some point.
I don't know if it'll be this year. Like I'm
still willing to bet on him this year, but I'm
also going in with my eyes wide open, knowing that
(07:24):
thirty two year old running.
Speaker 4 (07:26):
Backs aren't probably.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Aren't the safest bats in the world.
Speaker 5 (07:30):
Converse to your point, though, Pat, the Patmobile isn't exactly
youthful either, sir.
Speaker 4 (07:35):
And it's running just fine, spry over the last three
years from Cleveland to Canton, Sir.
Speaker 2 (07:40):
It's in the shop right now.
Speaker 3 (07:42):
Oh oh, don't ask.
Speaker 2 (07:47):
Don't ask.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
Your one talking point that you had, deep bro, God,
I was all ahead.
Speaker 4 (07:52):
That was my and the whole Patty, dang it. I
will say this.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
I'll keep referring to this flextraft that we were just
at because it is an industry ever league draft where
you've got a bunch of people that are analysts at
different companies. And I saw in this draft Derek Henry
went second round as the RB two for a team
that started Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Maleak neighbors Josh Allen,
and I think maybe a year ago, if you told
someone that could be your build early on, they would
(08:19):
just be, oh, you won, congrats and winning your league.
So I think we're going to start to see some
builds like that where you see Dereck Henry maybe fall
a little bit, especially in home leagues where maybe people
aren't as worried about.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
The age cliff.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
They're just like, yeah, dude, that's Dereck Henry. Ravens still
great offense.
Speaker 4 (08:33):
We'll be fine. Yeah.
Speaker 5 (08:34):
It's kind of crazy, like you're in the second round,
you're able to just double up on RB ones. I'm
here for it, all.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
Right, let's go to our next guy on here, Pat
we're talking about running backs that are getting a little
bit older. We kind of mentioned this guy earlier, the
Declan Doyle and Detroit Lions offense. But your next guy
up here is considered one of your safest running backs
in fantasy football drafts.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
It's David Montgomery now the Texan, and it's funny. David
Montgomery's ADP last year was RB twenty two fifty four overall.
Montgomery's real time ADP at this very moment, which you
can check out one of the great fantasy pros tool,
the Tracks ADP, in real time, it's RB twenty forty
(09:17):
six point seven overall. Very little difference, even though David
Montgomery was sharing a backfield with Junior Gibbs last year
and this year he's sharing a backfield with Woody Marks.
So Montgomery is going to be the Texans primary early
down back. We know that, and he could end up
among the league leaders in carries. I don't think that's
too far fetched the Tecans. Texans have an elite defense.
(09:41):
They are going to be playing with a lot of
leads this season, a lot of run friendly game scripts.
Their offensive line is in much better shape now than
it has been. They added Wyatt Teller and Braden Smith
in free agency. They spent a first round pick on
Keelan Rutledge, who's an absolute dog as a run blocker.
It's not hard to imagine Montgomery averaging fifteen or more
carries a game, and that was the sort of workload
(10:01):
he had with the Bears in his first couple of
years in the league. He averaged fifteen point one carries
a game as a rookie in twenty nineteen, sixteen point
five carries a game in twenty twenty, and Montgomery is
pretty much a mortal lock to be the Texans goal
line back.
Speaker 2 (10:15):
We know he's good at it.
Speaker 3 (10:16):
He had thirteen tds in twenty twenty three twelve and
twenty twenty four to eight last year. I guess what
limits the ceiling for Montgomery is the receiving profile. He
had a fifty four catch season back in twenty twenty,
but hasn't had more than forty targets in any of
his last four seasons, and Texans running backs had the
seventh lowest target share last year. But the rushing floor
(10:37):
is very sturdy. As the clear number one back for
a good team with an elite defense, team that should
often be in a position to run the rock.
Speaker 1 (10:46):
Woody marks last year was pretty inefficient, but coming out
of USC, one of his big calling cards is being
able to work on receiving downs and being able to
catch the ball out of the backfield. And it does
seem like that's probably going to be a bit of
their split here in Houston. And we've heard different reports.
We've heard that Dave Montgomery's going to be the workhorse,
and then I've heard some stuff where it's like it
might be closer to a sixty forty split, which I mean,
(11:08):
we can also just be real. What backfield isn't a
sixty forty split at this point.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
Debro, I know it's not your guy, but how comfortable.
Speaker 1 (11:15):
Are you with David Montgomery is one of the safer
picks in drafts.
Speaker 5 (11:18):
The only reason he's not my guys because Patty got
to this before me. But pat and I have been
holding hands with this the entire offseason. Man, We're both
in on Dave Montgomery. So I just want to give
Patty the flowers here, Like, I think this is a
fantastic call. I'm not worried about Woody Marks at all,
will be very clear about that. I think this backfield
will be owned by David Montgomery. I think we're going
to see, like going back to twenty twenty twenty four
(11:39):
Joe Mixon type of usage and Woody Marx. I mean,
he got basically the run of everything last year. And
I don't think a lot of people if you ask them,
who is the better back in explosive run rate, miss
tackle rate, rushing success rate, yards are to contact per attempt,
and yards per route run last year. Oh and by
the way, first downs per route run among the David
(12:00):
Montgomery and Woody Marks. I don't think anybody would tell
you or no offhand that David Montgomery was better than
Woody Marks in every single one of those categories. So
all the Woody Marks stuff, I legit do not care about.
I think Dave Montgomery is one of the best values
on the board. I drafted him in flex this week
in Alfredo and felt really really good about it. And
(12:21):
the floor is low end RB two and the ceiling
is not hard to see again, go back to twenty
twenty four Joe Mixon and if David Montgomery could be
a low end RB one this year, and to the
passing game stuff, I don't think CJ's stroud is gonna
become like just this checkdown quarterback. But I want people
to also understand that David Montgomery was twelfth and first
(12:41):
downs per route run, twenty second in yards per route
run last year. So the pass game chops are still there.
There is a question does he get the target volume,
but the dude is still really good through the air.
Speaker 1 (12:53):
Yeah, I'm gonna be intrigued to see how this Houston
Texans offense starts to shape up, because they should have
a full allotment of their receivers being out there, Jayden
Higgins and and Nico Collins back together, a full running
back room, and maybe we're gonna see a few more
scoring opportunities with this team. But uh, you know, just
to throw a third analyst in there who also believes
in Dave Montgomery, I'll mention it again that flex draft
(13:15):
rich Reebar took him as his running three, and it
was his running back three in his build. He took
him at the four oh five, right in between right
after Breese Hall and just before Camp Scataboo.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
So he believes Dave Montgomery.
Speaker 1 (13:28):
And I mean that's that's if you needed three voices
that were smart, well, okay, two voices, Pat and rich Debro.
Speaker 4 (13:35):
Wow, Okay, Shade, all right, I'm here for it. I'm sorry.
Speaker 2 (13:40):
I gotta keep things going with you, guys. I got
to keep these things going.
Speaker 4 (13:45):
Man.
Speaker 5 (13:46):
I did hear that speaking of all these flex drafts,
then that one QB draft, the turn was very basic
in that draft.
Speaker 4 (13:53):
But can you illuminate on that, Alfredo.
Speaker 2 (13:55):
Yeah, no, it was very basic draft, very basic picks,
very very big six selections all over. Thanks for that
deep especially at the turn. Yeah, yeah, exactly.
Speaker 4 (14:06):
Guys.
Speaker 2 (14:07):
Let's go to this next one here.
Speaker 1 (14:08):
This is actually a player that I love this year
in drafts. Not only safe floor, but I think the
upside is could be the best of his career at
this point if the offense ends up being as good
as we think it could be with a new coordinator
and healthy quarterback. Debro talk to us about.
Speaker 5 (14:25):
Your guy Terry McLaurin, baby wide receiver, twenty four overall,
right now, fifty fifth, we know what we're getting out
of McLaurin again, going to the safety since twenty twenty
four in the four well, twenty twenty four to twenty
twenty in the seasons where he played, you know, he
was healthy and stuff like that. He never saw less
than one hundred and seventeen targ one hundred and seventeen
to one hundred and thirty one targets never had less
(14:47):
than a thousand receiving yards. So we know the floor
with McLaurin last year when he was on the field.
Now again injuries and stuff and you know, contract talks
and things like that. We usually see these guys get
dinged up with the late start, but McLaurin the talent
is still firmly there. Guys like amongst one hundred and
nine qualifying wide receivers, he was thirteenth in yards per
route run, fourth and first downs per route run, and
(15:09):
top thirty in route win rate. So McLaurin, we know
the floor. We've seen the ceiling before. Gall that got
all the touchdowns in Jane Daniels rookie season was a
top fifteen wide receiver. I think he can go back
to being that. Heck, he could be a wide receiver
one this year. If like you're talking about Alfredo, the
new play calling can actually inject like some creativity and
(15:29):
some i'man McLaurin moving around the formation, which I mean Kingsbury.
We know these he takes the wide receiver one and
it's statics. Stick him on one side of the field.
Go win your routs, young sir. And it's like, okay,
can we do anything else? Can we use play action?
Can we move guys around? Can we use motion? We're
probably gonna get that in Washington this year. And I
know that we're all kind of thinking, Okay, Stefan Diggs
(15:51):
probably signs with the Commanders. What if he doesn't. Mclaurin's
going to see his share of that target tree regardless,
like that target pie he's gonna eat. But could he
get up to a twenty five a twenty six percent
share if Stefan Diggs does not sign there, I think
it definitively can happen. And if that all happens and
plays out, we could see a career best season for McLaurin.
(16:13):
So the safe floor is there, But also there's a
ton of ceiling here too.
Speaker 1 (16:18):
Yeah. I think the offensive coordinator shift is gonna be
huge here. Cliff Kingsbury's so good at setting things up
for a rookie quarterback, but ask him to throw in
some wrinkles and start to make it up one of
the best offenses in the league. It doesn't quite happen
and everything kind of remains static. So hearing already that
David Blough wants to move Terry McLaurin around the formation,
get him in motion, preset that motion, use play action,
(16:38):
and the quote of getting this guy ten targets per game.
Speaker 2 (16:41):
I love hearing that.
Speaker 4 (16:43):
Herefore it pat this.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
Is another one of the old guys. Though.
Speaker 1 (16:46):
Terry McLaurin, right, he's he's gonna be thirty one. I
believe in September there's a couple of these old guys
in the league, between Terry mclaur and DeVante Adams, Mike
Evans mature. Excuse me, Alfred, dude, it's crazy for me
to call them old and they're younger than me. As
I said, we're all calling them old and they're like years,
feel like such a TiO twelve years whatever younger than
(17:08):
us does.
Speaker 2 (17:09):
How much does that play a.
Speaker 1 (17:10):
Factor when you're looking at a guy like McLaurin, who's
going anywhere near round five in drafts right now, he still.
Speaker 3 (17:16):
Has a little more room till he hits the age
cliff than maybe Davante and Evans do. I think they're
either Adam's thirty three Evans. I want to say thirty
two about to turn thirty three. So yeah, like I'm
not too worried about it. And everything you guys talked about,
I mean, the coordinator change David Blouse and enthusiasm about
how much he's going to get him the ball, and
(17:37):
even if the Commanders were to sign another wide receiver,
if they were to add Stefan Diggs, I still feel
pretty good about the target chair. I mean, I always
do worry a little bit about any analysis that starts with, well,
who else is going to catch passes? Who else is
going to get carries? But in this case, you know,
we've got a good player who has clicked with this
quarterback before. And we just have to go back to
(17:58):
twenty twenty four to see when Terry lauren was a
wide receiver one in fantasy points per game with Jayden Daniels.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
And I'll put a dollar in the flex draft jar
right now because Bizarro Debro John Dagel took Terry mcclaury, yeah,
as his wide receiver three in the fourth round at
the four h four.
Speaker 4 (18:17):
So somebody called him pretty Derek Brown, I have heard.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
I think everyone calls him that. Actually, it was a
beautiful view, man when I was seeing two bald guys
with just lovely beards. It was like seeing the Grand Canyon.
Speaker 4 (18:30):
It was great.
Speaker 5 (18:31):
Somebody should have got a picture of this. And yes,
I will forever be known as likely John Dagel. People
that know, if you know, you know.
Speaker 2 (18:37):
All right, let's go to the last two guys we
have here.
Speaker 1 (18:40):
Pat, we broke out of the running back and wide
receiver area. You went with a quarterback on this one.
Talked to us about your.
Speaker 3 (18:46):
Guy, good old boring Jared Goff. Over the last four years,
goth has dropped at least forty four hundred passing yards
and twenty nine touchdown passes every season. It's averaged forty
five hundred fifty two passing yards and thirty two point
five touch shchdowns the season over those four years. That
works out to two hundred and sixty seven point seven
passing yards a game and one point nine touchdown passes
(19:09):
a game. Goff has finished second the league in passing
yardage three straight years, behind two A. Tongue of Vailoa
in twenty twenty three, Joe Burrown twenty twenty four, Matthew
Stafford in twenty twenty five. GoF has finished top five
and touchdown passes each of the last four years. Over
that span, he's been QB ten, QB seven, QB six,
and QB eight in fantasy scoring, a four year run
(19:31):
where he's been a top ten fantasy quarterback every year
while never cracking the top five and his ADP in
each of the last four years QB twenty seven, QB seventeen,
QB fifteen, QB twelve. This dude has been out kicking
his ADP for years.
Speaker 4 (19:47):
In the game.
Speaker 3 (19:47):
The game consistency, Alfredo has just been remarkable. Since twenty
twenty two, Gough has thrown for at least two hundred
yards and sixty of sixty eight regular season starts. He's
thrown two or more touchdown passes in forty those sixty
eight starts. This is your ideal guillotine league chop league quarterback.
Only seven times in the last four years goth has
(20:07):
thrown zero TD passes in a game. It's happened only
three times in the last three years, so we know
there's limited fantasy upside because he doesn't run. Since coming
to Detroit, GoF has produced zero touchdown runs in four
out of five seasons and has finished with one hundred
rushing yards every year, and because of that, Goth is
not at all a sexy option in drafts. We want
(20:28):
that Konami code rushing potential. But this is a pretty
good year to wait on quarterback because they're decent options
all the way into like mid QB two range. And
as of this morning, our our Fantasy Pros real time
ADP shows GoF going QB sixteen, one hundred and twenty
fifth overall in eleventh round EIGHTP. So you could absolutely
(20:48):
pound the running back and wide receiver positions, maybe get
yourself a premium tight end, and there he is waiting
for you in the tenth or eleventh round. Good old
Jared Goff, who's averaged eighteen point won Fantasy points per
game for the last four years. That is not a
bad way to go. And oh, by the way, uh
that the ceiling might even be a little higher than
commonly believed this year because the Detroit secondary is kind
(21:11):
of a mess. They've got a lot of injuries. They
had Tyry and Arnold they had to release him with
his legal problems. Lions can end up in a lot
of shootouts this year, so maybe there's an even better
ceiling for Jared Goff than we typically associate with Jared Goff,
and he.
Speaker 1 (21:27):
Kind of becomes that perfect quarterback that you could have
some consistency there. Well, maybe you take another upside guy
like a Tyler Shuck or a cam Ward or any
of these players that are going later in draft.
Speaker 4 (21:36):
Willis Hi.
Speaker 1 (21:38):
There you go, yep, Milik will No, sorry.
Speaker 4 (21:43):
Doesn't get to say hi right here? No no no, no, no,
no no no.
Speaker 1 (21:47):
All right, de bro, I'm gonna I'm gonna make you
just shift really quickly away from leak. Willis to tell
us about your last guy so we can get on
out of here. You got a tight end here, uh,
an elder fellow who has become more popular for I
guess his life outside of football lately.
Speaker 5 (22:03):
A mature tight end stalwart. That is how I would
like to frame Travis Kelcey. And yes, like one of
the most boring picks you can make in fantasy right now,
gone through the days of top three, top five status
for Travis Kelcey. You know, just a guy that's been
tightened nine tight end seven and fantasy points per game
over the last two years, fourth and third in targets,
ninth and fourth in target share, fourth and fifth and
(22:24):
receiving yards amongst tight ends just boring because everybody's.
Speaker 4 (22:28):
Like, oh, he's not the top five guy.
Speaker 5 (22:30):
That he was in previous years, but he's still gonna
be a top twelve tight end. He's still gonna be
probably a top seven guy. He's still in an offense,
is gonna throw the freaking ball. He still does have talent.
Amongst fifty nine qualifying tight ends. Last year, he was
nineteenth in yards per route run, eighteenth in yak per reception,
sixteenth and first downs per route run.
Speaker 4 (22:50):
Are any of those elite numbers? No?
Speaker 5 (22:52):
Are any of those bad numbers though, No, So you
know what you're getting, and he's going to be probably
the target leader for the Kansas City Chiefs. We don't
know what we're getting out of Rashid Rice, who looks
like he's running in mud right now. I mean, you know, surprise, surprise.
Jail rehab probably didn't go well. So Travis Kelsey is
still going to be the guy that leads him in targets,
and he's still going to be Mahomes' best friend in
(23:12):
the passing game. And while I know it's not sexy,
and I know he doesn't have top five upside anymore.
Speaker 4 (23:18):
You know what you're getting out.
Speaker 5 (23:19):
Of Travis Kelcey, and that's still a quality tight end
one with top seven upside, and.
Speaker 4 (23:24):
If the touchdowns come back this year, maybe he has
more than that.
Speaker 2 (23:28):
Well, guys, they have it.
Speaker 1 (23:30):
Our sixth safest Fantasy football draft picks players with a
high floor and some of them with some really high upside.
I want to thank you, guys, debro Pat for giving
us the great analysis on this one, and for everyone
watching or listening, I want to thank you for joining
us on this one.
Speaker 2 (23:44):
We'll be back again soon. I'll see you next time. Audios.
Speaker 1 (23:48):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
Speaker 5 (23:51):
If you love the show, the best free way to
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slash Fantasy Pros
Welcome to the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Alfredo Brown,
joined today by Pat Fitzmorris and Derek Brown. Today we
are talking the safest fantasy football draft picks, high floor
players that you can trust when you get into your drafts.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
And you know, guys, my friends.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
Always ask me like, I just need the guy that
could be consistent.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
You set it forget it starter.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
But I also think some of these guys can be
high ceiling guys too. It's not just about high floor.
So I think you, guys, I'm looking at the list here.
We've got some really good players on this list, and Pat,
I want to start with you, and we're going to
start with one of the guys that has the highest
adp here. So why don't you kick us off with
the first player.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
It's Tetoha McMillan. And some people might think this is
kind of an odd choice for a safe pick. Teto
McMillan has only been in the league for one year
and he plays with the quarterback Bryce Young, who doesn't
exactly inspire confidence within the fantasy community. But the QB situation,
Alfredo is exactly the reason why I think McMillan is
(00:58):
one of the safer picks. You can make it fantasy drafts.
Bryce Young averaged one hundred and eighty eight point two
passing yards a game and six point four yards per
attempt last season, terrible numbers. Panthers were twenty seventh in
passing yardage. Bryce Young threw twenty five or fewer passes
in half of his sixteen starts last season. They were
trying to hide him in that offense, and yet Tedoroh
(01:20):
McMillan still hit one thousand yards. As a rookie, t
mac had a twenty five point four percent target chair
accounted for thirty point seven percent of the Panthers receiving yardage.
He did that at the age of twenty two. T
mack was a top ten draft pick who was also
in early declare. He only played three seasons at Arizona State,
where he also had an enormous target and yardage share
(01:41):
in his last two college seasons. He was wide receiver
fifteen last year in a pretty sickly Eco system. What
if he makes a big year two jump, or what
if Bryce Young actually improves. I know that seems like
a stretch, but Bryce Young just turned twenty five, and
Dave Canals is a pretty good offensive designer. I think
there might come a time when we look at t
I McMillan is like a first or second round value
(02:02):
in fantasy drafts.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
He's just that good.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
The fact that he was able to give US wide
receiver two numbers last year in such a suboptimal environment
suggests that the floor is pretty safe and the potential
ceiling is pretty enticing.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
Two.
Speaker 1 (02:16):
Yeah, an expert consensus rank has them at wide receiver
fifteen right now. ADP has him at wide receiver fourteen.
Somewhere around that round three, round four turn deepro. You
and I were at the Flex Draft with Jake Seely
in New York. He I had the chance to take
Tedro and McMillan at the four oh one in my draft,
I passed that. I went Luther Burdon instead, but McMillan
(02:36):
went just a few spots later at the four oh three.
Speaker 2 (02:40):
How do you like Tedroe McMillan there.
Speaker 1 (02:42):
In the fourth round, Because, I mean, depending on your build,
if you're going wide receiver heavy, you're talking about a
guy who might be the wide receiver three on your
roster if you're starting that way.
Speaker 4 (02:49):
Oh.
Speaker 5 (02:50):
Absolutely, And I think like my reason I'm a little
bit lower on Tet this year, and it has nothing
to do with Tet. For everything that fits you laid out,
Ted is an amazing talent. Like going back into yester year,
you know, hindsight was he was my wide receiver one
in that draft class. The entire time, My only concerns
are about Tet. Aren't about Tet. It's about Bryce Shung,
the passing volume and the ceiling and floor of Bryce
(03:12):
Shung as a passer. So I think, but what Fitzi
lays out here is that when you're looking at safe players,
we're talking about betting on talent and volume and the
ability for that guy to earn volume. And again, like,
I don't want to discount be too too low on Tet,
even though I'm a little bit behind consensus to the
point where everybody's missing him, because Ted does have the
(03:33):
talent and we do want to bet on second.
Speaker 4 (03:35):
Year wide receivers.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
Yeah, And something that Pat mentioned is like what if
the Panthers are better this year? Right, Like this could
be an offense that does continue to improve each year.
We're adding Jonathan Brooks back into the mix. Chris brasl
out for the year now, So another guy who could
have been taking targets away or potentially opening things up.
We'll see how that ends up working, because it was
talk of McMillan going into the slot, but he's still
(03:57):
he's a safe player, continues to have a high upside
going into this year. So I like that pick from you,
Pat Debro. We we're going to the other end of
the spectrum here. We started with a young wide receiver,
potentially upstart offense to an offense that's been good for years.
Maybe he kind of hit a down season last year.
Older guy running back, give us your first guy here.
Speaker 5 (04:19):
He's a mature running back, but he's not old in
terms of what he's doing in production wise on the field.
Speaker 4 (04:23):
Baby. And I'm just I'm tired of betting against him.
Speaker 5 (04:27):
I just I raised the white flag about three years
ago and I said, look, Derek Henry's gonna be an
RB one until he decides to hang up the cleats.
You can't push back about it, like we know what
we're gonna get. And like again we're talking about safety.
I mean, dude, Like, if he's healthy, Derrick Henry, we
know what we're getting. Like, since twenty eighteen, this guy
has given us. Every season that he's played at least
(04:48):
fifteen games, he's given as at least two hundred fifteen carries,
at least a thousand and fifty nine rushing yards, and
twelve total touchdowns.
Speaker 4 (04:54):
And last year there was no falloff.
Speaker 5 (04:57):
Amongst forty nine qualifying backs, this dude was sixteenth in
yards of contact per attempt and seventh in an explosive
run rate. So while he is getting a little bit older,
there's no falloff in any one of his metrics. And
we know we're getting out of Derrick Henry. It's a
crap ton of early down volume. It's all the touchdowns
that you want. Whatever he does in the passing game
is icing on top of the cake. But again, an
(05:19):
RB twelve or higher every single year. And like we
talked about, safe doesn't have to mean you're devoid of
upside like Derrick Henry.
Speaker 4 (05:27):
If he catches any more.
Speaker 5 (05:28):
Passes in this Doyle offense this year could be a
top five back and not just like Okay Locke set
forget RB one.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
Yeah, and you mentioned Decklan Doyle coming in as the
new offensive coordinator running this thing. He comes from the
Ben Johnson coaching tree where you talk about him not
having really any kind of regression in terms of stats
that are going downhill for him.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
But Henry actually didn't score as many touchdowns as he
normally does.
Speaker 1 (05:53):
So if we can get a positive regression this year
where Derrick Henry is getting dare I say the David
Montgomery role in the Raven's sofense, you know, like, imagine
that Derrick Henry getting back to anywhere near having double
digit touchdowns. We're talking about a guy that absolutely smashes
his RB twelve, uh RB eleven ADP his RB twelve
ECR rank. Right now, Pat, when you look at a
(06:14):
guy like Henry, though, how worried do you get about
that age cliff because it is just a real thing.
But I guess with Derrick Henry that doesn't really exist.
Speaker 4 (06:23):
Yeah, a little worried.
Speaker 3 (06:24):
I mean, he might be just a different species of
human being and we should just throw the age concerns
out the window. Like I know there is a case
for that because he has been one of the safest
running backs you could take. But we have a car
right now, a third car that we let our teenage
sun drive. It's got over two hundred thousand miles on it.
(06:45):
This thing has been running great. All we do is
change the oil, no problems whatsoever. We feel totally safe
having him, you know, taken around the neighborhood, drive to
friends places.
Speaker 2 (06:56):
Drive to play golf.
Speaker 3 (06:58):
I don't want him taking that thing cross country with
over two hundred thousand miles on it.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
That's my only issue.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
Like, at some point we're going to run into a
mechanical issue here, and I just I feel like we're
tempting fate with Derrick Henry and things look great until
they don't. And that's gonna happen abruptly at some point.
I don't know if it'll be this year. Like I'm
still willing to bet on him this year, but I'm
also going in with my eyes wide open, knowing that
(07:24):
thirty two year old running.
Speaker 4 (07:26):
Backs aren't probably.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Aren't the safest bats in the world.
Speaker 5 (07:30):
Converse to your point, though, Pat, the Patmobile isn't exactly
youthful either, sir.
Speaker 4 (07:35):
And it's running just fine, spry over the last three
years from Cleveland to Canton, Sir.
Speaker 2 (07:40):
It's in the shop right now.
Speaker 3 (07:42):
Oh oh, don't ask.
Speaker 2 (07:47):
Don't ask.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
Your one talking point that you had, deep bro, God,
I was all ahead.
Speaker 4 (07:52):
That was my and the whole Patty, dang it. I
will say this.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
I'll keep referring to this flextraft that we were just
at because it is an industry ever league draft where
you've got a bunch of people that are analysts at
different companies. And I saw in this draft Derek Henry
went second round as the RB two for a team
that started Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Maleak neighbors Josh Allen,
and I think maybe a year ago, if you told
someone that could be your build early on, they would
(08:19):
just be, oh, you won, congrats and winning your league.
So I think we're going to start to see some
builds like that where you see Dereck Henry maybe fall
a little bit, especially in home leagues where maybe people
aren't as worried about.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
The age cliff.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
They're just like, yeah, dude, that's Dereck Henry. Ravens still
great offense.
Speaker 4 (08:33):
We'll be fine. Yeah.
Speaker 5 (08:34):
It's kind of crazy, like you're in the second round,
you're able to just double up on RB ones. I'm
here for it, all.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
Right, let's go to our next guy on here, Pat
we're talking about running backs that are getting a little
bit older. We kind of mentioned this guy earlier, the
Declan Doyle and Detroit Lions offense. But your next guy
up here is considered one of your safest running backs
in fantasy football drafts.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
It's David Montgomery now the Texan, and it's funny. David
Montgomery's ADP last year was RB twenty two fifty four overall.
Montgomery's real time ADP at this very moment, which you
can check out one of the great fantasy pros tool,
the Tracks ADP, in real time, it's RB twenty forty
(09:17):
six point seven overall. Very little difference, even though David
Montgomery was sharing a backfield with Junior Gibbs last year
and this year he's sharing a backfield with Woody Marks.
So Montgomery is going to be the Texans primary early
down back. We know that, and he could end up
among the league leaders in carries. I don't think that's
too far fetched the Tecans. Texans have an elite defense.
(09:41):
They are going to be playing with a lot of
leads this season, a lot of run friendly game scripts.
Their offensive line is in much better shape now than
it has been. They added Wyatt Teller and Braden Smith
in free agency. They spent a first round pick on
Keelan Rutledge, who's an absolute dog as a run blocker.
It's not hard to imagine Montgomery averaging fifteen or more
carries a game, and that was the sort of workload
(10:01):
he had with the Bears in his first couple of
years in the league. He averaged fifteen point one carries
a game as a rookie in twenty nineteen, sixteen point
five carries a game in twenty twenty, and Montgomery is
pretty much a mortal lock to be the Texans goal
line back.
Speaker 2 (10:15):
We know he's good at it.
Speaker 3 (10:16):
He had thirteen tds in twenty twenty three twelve and
twenty twenty four to eight last year. I guess what
limits the ceiling for Montgomery is the receiving profile. He
had a fifty four catch season back in twenty twenty,
but hasn't had more than forty targets in any of
his last four seasons, and Texans running backs had the
seventh lowest target share last year. But the rushing floor
(10:37):
is very sturdy. As the clear number one back for
a good team with an elite defense, team that should
often be in a position to run the rock.
Speaker 1 (10:46):
Woody marks last year was pretty inefficient, but coming out
of USC, one of his big calling cards is being
able to work on receiving downs and being able to
catch the ball out of the backfield. And it does
seem like that's probably going to be a bit of
their split here in Houston. And we've heard different reports.
We've heard that Dave Montgomery's going to be the workhorse,
and then I've heard some stuff where it's like it
might be closer to a sixty forty split, which I mean,
(11:08):
we can also just be real. What backfield isn't a
sixty forty split at this point.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
Debro, I know it's not your guy, but how comfortable.
Speaker 1 (11:15):
Are you with David Montgomery is one of the safer
picks in drafts.
Speaker 5 (11:18):
The only reason he's not my guys because Patty got
to this before me. But pat and I have been
holding hands with this the entire offseason. Man, We're both
in on Dave Montgomery. So I just want to give
Patty the flowers here, Like, I think this is a
fantastic call. I'm not worried about Woody Marks at all,
will be very clear about that. I think this backfield
will be owned by David Montgomery. I think we're going
to see, like going back to twenty twenty twenty four
(11:39):
Joe Mixon type of usage and Woody Marx. I mean,
he got basically the run of everything last year. And
I don't think a lot of people if you ask them,
who is the better back in explosive run rate, miss
tackle rate, rushing success rate, yards are to contact per attempt,
and yards per route run last year. Oh and by
the way, first downs per route run among the David
(12:00):
Montgomery and Woody Marks. I don't think anybody would tell
you or no offhand that David Montgomery was better than
Woody Marks in every single one of those categories. So
all the Woody Marks stuff, I legit do not care about.
I think Dave Montgomery is one of the best values
on the board. I drafted him in flex this week
in Alfredo and felt really really good about it. And
(12:21):
the floor is low end RB two and the ceiling
is not hard to see again, go back to twenty
twenty four Joe Mixon and if David Montgomery could be
a low end RB one this year, and to the
passing game stuff, I don't think CJ's stroud is gonna
become like just this checkdown quarterback. But I want people
to also understand that David Montgomery was twelfth and first
(12:41):
downs per route run, twenty second in yards per route
run last year. So the pass game chops are still there.
There is a question does he get the target volume,
but the dude is still really good through the air.
Speaker 1 (12:53):
Yeah, I'm gonna be intrigued to see how this Houston
Texans offense starts to shape up, because they should have
a full allotment of their receivers being out there, Jayden
Higgins and and Nico Collins back together, a full running
back room, and maybe we're gonna see a few more
scoring opportunities with this team. But uh, you know, just
to throw a third analyst in there who also believes
in Dave Montgomery, I'll mention it again that flex draft
(13:15):
rich Reebar took him as his running three, and it
was his running back three in his build. He took
him at the four oh five, right in between right
after Breese Hall and just before Camp Scataboo.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
So he believes Dave Montgomery.
Speaker 1 (13:28):
And I mean that's that's if you needed three voices
that were smart, well, okay, two voices, Pat and rich Debro.
Speaker 4 (13:35):
Wow, Okay, Shade, all right, I'm here for it. I'm sorry.
Speaker 2 (13:40):
I gotta keep things going with you, guys. I got
to keep these things going.
Speaker 4 (13:45):
Man.
Speaker 5 (13:46):
I did hear that speaking of all these flex drafts,
then that one QB draft, the turn was very basic
in that draft.
Speaker 4 (13:53):
But can you illuminate on that, Alfredo.
Speaker 2 (13:55):
Yeah, no, it was very basic draft, very basic picks,
very very big six selections all over. Thanks for that
deep especially at the turn. Yeah, yeah, exactly.
Speaker 4 (14:06):
Guys.
Speaker 2 (14:07):
Let's go to this next one here.
Speaker 1 (14:08):
This is actually a player that I love this year
in drafts. Not only safe floor, but I think the
upside is could be the best of his career at
this point if the offense ends up being as good
as we think it could be with a new coordinator
and healthy quarterback. Debro talk to us about.
Speaker 5 (14:25):
Your guy Terry McLaurin, baby wide receiver, twenty four overall,
right now, fifty fifth, we know what we're getting out
of McLaurin again, going to the safety since twenty twenty
four in the four well, twenty twenty four to twenty
twenty in the seasons where he played, you know, he
was healthy and stuff like that. He never saw less
than one hundred and seventeen targ one hundred and seventeen
to one hundred and thirty one targets never had less
(14:47):
than a thousand receiving yards. So we know the floor
with McLaurin last year when he was on the field.
Now again injuries and stuff and you know, contract talks
and things like that. We usually see these guys get
dinged up with the late start, but McLaurin the talent
is still firmly there. Guys like amongst one hundred and
nine qualifying wide receivers, he was thirteenth in yards per
route run, fourth and first downs per route run, and
(15:09):
top thirty in route win rate. So McLaurin, we know
the floor. We've seen the ceiling before. Gall that got
all the touchdowns in Jane Daniels rookie season was a
top fifteen wide receiver. I think he can go back
to being that. Heck, he could be a wide receiver
one this year. If like you're talking about Alfredo, the
new play calling can actually inject like some creativity and
(15:29):
some i'man McLaurin moving around the formation, which I mean Kingsbury.
We know these he takes the wide receiver one and
it's statics. Stick him on one side of the field.
Go win your routs, young sir. And it's like, okay,
can we do anything else? Can we use play action?
Can we move guys around? Can we use motion? We're
probably gonna get that in Washington this year. And I
know that we're all kind of thinking, Okay, Stefan Diggs
(15:51):
probably signs with the Commanders. What if he doesn't. Mclaurin's
going to see his share of that target tree regardless,
like that target pie he's gonna eat. But could he
get up to a twenty five a twenty six percent
share if Stefan Diggs does not sign there, I think
it definitively can happen. And if that all happens and
plays out, we could see a career best season for McLaurin.
(16:13):
So the safe floor is there, But also there's a
ton of ceiling here too.
Speaker 1 (16:18):
Yeah. I think the offensive coordinator shift is gonna be
huge here. Cliff Kingsbury's so good at setting things up
for a rookie quarterback, but ask him to throw in
some wrinkles and start to make it up one of
the best offenses in the league. It doesn't quite happen
and everything kind of remains static. So hearing already that
David Blough wants to move Terry McLaurin around the formation,
get him in motion, preset that motion, use play action,
(16:38):
and the quote of getting this guy ten targets per game.
Speaker 2 (16:41):
I love hearing that.
Speaker 4 (16:43):
Herefore it pat this.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
Is another one of the old guys. Though.
Speaker 1 (16:46):
Terry McLaurin, right, he's he's gonna be thirty one. I
believe in September there's a couple of these old guys
in the league, between Terry mclaur and DeVante Adams, Mike
Evans mature. Excuse me, Alfred, dude, it's crazy for me
to call them old and they're younger than me. As
I said, we're all calling them old and they're like years,
feel like such a TiO twelve years whatever younger than
(17:08):
us does.
Speaker 2 (17:09):
How much does that play a.
Speaker 1 (17:10):
Factor when you're looking at a guy like McLaurin, who's
going anywhere near round five in drafts right now, he still.
Speaker 3 (17:16):
Has a little more room till he hits the age
cliff than maybe Davante and Evans do. I think they're
either Adam's thirty three Evans. I want to say thirty
two about to turn thirty three. So yeah, like I'm
not too worried about it. And everything you guys talked about,
I mean, the coordinator change David Blouse and enthusiasm about
how much he's going to get him the ball, and
(17:37):
even if the Commanders were to sign another wide receiver,
if they were to add Stefan Diggs, I still feel
pretty good about the target chair. I mean, I always
do worry a little bit about any analysis that starts with, well,
who else is going to catch passes? Who else is
going to get carries? But in this case, you know,
we've got a good player who has clicked with this
quarterback before. And we just have to go back to
(17:58):
twenty twenty four to see when Terry lauren was a
wide receiver one in fantasy points per game with Jayden Daniels.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
And I'll put a dollar in the flex draft jar
right now because Bizarro Debro John Dagel took Terry mcclaury, yeah,
as his wide receiver three in the fourth round at
the four h four.
Speaker 4 (18:17):
So somebody called him pretty Derek Brown, I have heard.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
I think everyone calls him that. Actually, it was a
beautiful view, man when I was seeing two bald guys
with just lovely beards. It was like seeing the Grand Canyon.
Speaker 4 (18:30):
It was great.
Speaker 5 (18:31):
Somebody should have got a picture of this. And yes,
I will forever be known as likely John Dagel. People
that know, if you know, you know.
Speaker 2 (18:37):
All right, let's go to the last two guys we
have here.
Speaker 1 (18:40):
Pat, we broke out of the running back and wide
receiver area. You went with a quarterback on this one.
Talked to us about your.
Speaker 3 (18:46):
Guy, good old boring Jared Goff. Over the last four years,
goth has dropped at least forty four hundred passing yards
and twenty nine touchdown passes every season. It's averaged forty
five hundred fifty two passing yards and thirty two point
five touch shchdowns the season over those four years. That
works out to two hundred and sixty seven point seven
passing yards a game and one point nine touchdown passes
(19:09):
a game. Goff has finished second the league in passing
yardage three straight years, behind two A. Tongue of Vailoa
in twenty twenty three, Joe Burrown twenty twenty four, Matthew
Stafford in twenty twenty five. GoF has finished top five
and touchdown passes each of the last four years. Over
that span, he's been QB ten, QB seven, QB six,
and QB eight in fantasy scoring, a four year run
(19:31):
where he's been a top ten fantasy quarterback every year
while never cracking the top five and his ADP in
each of the last four years QB twenty seven, QB seventeen,
QB fifteen, QB twelve. This dude has been out kicking
his ADP for years.
Speaker 4 (19:47):
In the game.
Speaker 3 (19:47):
The game consistency, Alfredo has just been remarkable. Since twenty
twenty two, Gough has thrown for at least two hundred
yards and sixty of sixty eight regular season starts. He's
thrown two or more touchdown passes in forty those sixty
eight starts. This is your ideal guillotine league chop league quarterback.
Only seven times in the last four years goth has
(20:07):
thrown zero TD passes in a game. It's happened only
three times in the last three years, so we know
there's limited fantasy upside because he doesn't run. Since coming
to Detroit, GoF has produced zero touchdown runs in four
out of five seasons and has finished with one hundred
rushing yards every year, and because of that, Goth is
not at all a sexy option in drafts. We want
(20:28):
that Konami code rushing potential. But this is a pretty
good year to wait on quarterback because they're decent options
all the way into like mid QB two range. And
as of this morning, our our Fantasy Pros real time
ADP shows GoF going QB sixteen, one hundred and twenty
fifth overall in eleventh round EIGHTP. So you could absolutely
(20:48):
pound the running back and wide receiver positions, maybe get
yourself a premium tight end, and there he is waiting
for you in the tenth or eleventh round. Good old
Jared Goff, who's averaged eighteen point won Fantasy points per
game for the last four years. That is not a
bad way to go. And oh, by the way, uh
that the ceiling might even be a little higher than
commonly believed this year because the Detroit secondary is kind
(21:11):
of a mess. They've got a lot of injuries. They
had Tyry and Arnold they had to release him with
his legal problems. Lions can end up in a lot
of shootouts this year, so maybe there's an even better
ceiling for Jared Goff than we typically associate with Jared Goff,
and he.
Speaker 1 (21:27):
Kind of becomes that perfect quarterback that you could have
some consistency there. Well, maybe you take another upside guy
like a Tyler Shuck or a cam Ward or any
of these players that are going later in draft.
Speaker 4 (21:36):
Willis Hi.
Speaker 1 (21:38):
There you go, yep, Milik will No, sorry.
Speaker 4 (21:43):
Doesn't get to say hi right here? No no no, no, no,
no no no.
Speaker 1 (21:47):
All right, de bro, I'm gonna I'm gonna make you
just shift really quickly away from leak. Willis to tell
us about your last guy so we can get on
out of here. You got a tight end here, uh,
an elder fellow who has become more popular for I
guess his life outside of football lately.
Speaker 5 (22:03):
A mature tight end stalwart. That is how I would
like to frame Travis Kelcey. And yes, like one of
the most boring picks you can make in fantasy right now,
gone through the days of top three, top five status
for Travis Kelcey. You know, just a guy that's been
tightened nine tight end seven and fantasy points per game
over the last two years, fourth and third in targets,
ninth and fourth in target share, fourth and fifth and
(22:24):
receiving yards amongst tight ends just boring because everybody's.
Speaker 4 (22:28):
Like, oh, he's not the top five guy.
Speaker 5 (22:30):
That he was in previous years, but he's still gonna
be a top twelve tight end. He's still gonna be
probably a top seven guy. He's still in an offense,
is gonna throw the freaking ball. He still does have talent.
Amongst fifty nine qualifying tight ends. Last year, he was
nineteenth in yards per route run, eighteenth in yak per reception,
sixteenth and first downs per route run.
Speaker 4 (22:50):
Are any of those elite numbers? No?
Speaker 5 (22:52):
Are any of those bad numbers though, No, So you
know what you're getting, and he's going to be probably
the target leader for the Kansas City Chiefs. We don't
know what we're getting out of Rashid Rice, who looks
like he's running in mud right now. I mean, you know, surprise, surprise.
Jail rehab probably didn't go well. So Travis Kelsey is
still going to be the guy that leads him in targets,
and he's still going to be Mahomes' best friend in
(23:12):
the passing game. And while I know it's not sexy,
and I know he doesn't have top five upside anymore.
Speaker 4 (23:18):
You know what you're getting out.
Speaker 5 (23:19):
Of Travis Kelcey, and that's still a quality tight end
one with top seven upside, and.
Speaker 4 (23:24):
If the touchdowns come back this year, maybe he has
more than that.
Speaker 2 (23:28):
Well, guys, they have it.
Speaker 1 (23:30):
Our sixth safest Fantasy football draft picks players with a
high floor and some of them with some really high upside.
I want to thank you, guys, debro Pat for giving
us the great analysis on this one, and for everyone
watching or listening, I want to thank you for joining
us on this one.
Speaker 2 (23:44):
We'll be back again soon. I'll see you next time. Audios.
Speaker 1 (23:48):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
Speaker 5 (23:51):
If you love the show, the best free way to
support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple
podcasts at Fantasypros dot com, slash review or on Spotify.
Follow us on x, Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros,
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slash Fantasy Pros
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Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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