Jason reacts to the news that Jayson Tatum is returning from injury for the Boston Celtics tonight in a battle against the Dallas Mavericks. He breaks down what this means for Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and the Celtics as a whole. Then he answers NBA mailbag questions involving Oklahoma City Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Detroit Pistons star Cade Cunningham's bids for MVP, whether Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs can win the NBA Finals this season, Cam Johnson's struggles for the Denver Nuggets, and more.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume. All right, we'll go to Hoops Tonight. You're
at the volume, Hay Friday and everybody. I hope all
of you guys are having a great end to your week.
As usual, today is mail bag Day. I have a
(00:23):
ten pack of questions from you guys. If you ever
want to get questions into the mail bags, all you
gotta do is go to our full episodes on YouTube
the comments underneath right mail bag with the colon write
your question. That helps me sort through it when I'm
looking through the comments. We'll get to them on Fridays
throughout the remainder of the season.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
You guys are the joke.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
Before we get started, to subscribe to the Hoops Tonight
YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos.
Don't forget to like this video as well as sign
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Speaker 2 (00:45):
That helps us a lot.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
And then, as mentioned, drop your mail bag questions if
you want to get in the future mail bags. All right,
let's talk some basketball now before we get to our
actual mail bag questions. Jason Tatum is making his return
tonight against the Dallas Maps, an incredible show of resilience
and dedication to recover as quickly as he did. I
think that's less than ten months on an achilles repair.
(01:08):
That's really really impressive work behind the scenes from Jason
Tatum to make it back. I just imagine for any
basketball player, that's probably the most discouraging injury that you
can possibly suffer. And so to keep your head down
and stay focused on the work and to get through
it the way that he did, I just think is
super impressive. Now, I was talking about this with Colin
(01:29):
Coward yesterday, but you know, culture is a thing that
I think is a foundational part of any perennially successful
basketball program of any kind, whether it's a college, in
high school or in the pros. Right Like, if you
have a strong basketball culture, it's going to be the
thing that helps you be competitive when you have a
(01:50):
roster that's limited in one reason or another, or to
meet your absolute potential when you do have a lot
of talent. Right Like, there's just the culture is the
foundational skill, the foundational thing that allows you to be
successful year in year out. But it only can go
so far. And I think that the Celtics this season
have been an example of that in the sense that
(02:11):
they've been one of the most impressive teams statistically, a
lot of the metrics coming out of them are super impressive.
Like I was talking, I'm gonna talk a little bit
about this with Wemby later, the net rating data. When
you pulled players with net rating at the top of
the league, it's a lot of Celtics and it's a
lot of thunder players. The Celtics have been a team
that on the scoreboard, because of their strong culture, have
done a lot of damage this year, and they've been
(02:31):
very successful in the stainings. I view them as every
bit as good as the other teams in that top
tier in the East, like I view them more or
less on the same level as Cleveland or Detroit or
New York. Now, I personally have Cleveland and New York
a tiny bit above them as of right this second,
but that's because of the same thing that I was
just discussing. I viewed this season as an incredibly impressive
(02:52):
demonstration of the culture that Joe Missoula and Brad Stevens
have built in Boston, But ultimately you need talent. One
of the consistence they distant things that has shown up
for me this season when Boston is run into certain
types of defense the certain types of opponents, the limitation
in some of their personnel group starts to show up. So,
(03:12):
for instance, take the Charlotte game from Wednesday night. For example,
they're bigs, they were sitting back in a deep drop,
and they're not really fast enough to really get into
some aggressive coverages out on the perimeter. Boston will have
some small ball looks, especially with Tatum coming back, but
like they had some scheme versatility problems against the Hornets
as they just barbecued their deep drop coverage with a
(03:33):
variety of short range, mid range jump shots, floaters, six
pull up threes in that game, four of which were
directly at a ball screens into deep drop situations. And
so one of the things I noticed when I was
watching that game was like, this is the kind of
thing that Jason Tatum used to be a solution for.
You know, like a lot of teams, they're pick and
roll geometry is predicated on either having a center that
(03:57):
can roll or maybe a guard who can flip in
and out of screens. And so if you can place
your center on someone else, you can put the defense
or the offense into a situation where they have to
do a lot of things that they don't usually do.
The problem is if you do that, someone else has
to guard their center. And if you end up with
someone that's too small or physically incapable of hanging with
(04:19):
that center, you can have all sorts of problems on
the offensive glass. Certain centers will do issues or do
damage to you in the post. There's a problem if
you don't have someone that can guard that center. Take
this Hornets matchup for example, Jason Tatum is healthy, as
we saw so much last year, He's physically capable of
guarding opponent centers because he can keep them off the glass,
(04:40):
and he's not a significant target as a post mismatch, right,
So if he's able to guard Mussa diabat, and I
think Jason Tatum with Romos Diabate around, he's got like
a legit strength advantage there, a low center of gravity
advantage there. Maybe you tuck your center onto Miles Bridges.
Miles Bridges, who's shooting thirty three percent from three this year,
who has specifically struggled on threes slipping out of ball screens.
(05:03):
All of a sudden, you make the Hornets do something
that they don't necessarily want to do. That is a
coverage option that was unavailable to the Celtics the season
because their forwards weren't big and strong enough. And so
Jason Tatum coming back immediately gives you that optionality, that flexibility,
that versatility in your defensive scheming because of his ability
to guard centers. Not to mention, if you're going to
(05:25):
play small ball looks, you need a really strong defensive,
rebounding forward somewhere in there, and Jason Tatum can play
that role. The second piece of it is the shot
creation element. We talked about this a lot over the
course of this season in specific matchups, like I talked
about how Denver, for example, used deep drop on Jalen
Brown to cause problems Charlotte, you know, was a mix
(05:47):
Diabate did some switching. Jalen had some success against those
switches in the early fourth quarter, but for the most part,
in drop coverage looks, Jalen was running into problems backpet
pressure kind of funneling him into the lane. He was
rushing things over, penetrating missing shots around the basket. It
was not a great game for Jaylen Brown as a
shot creator.
Speaker 2 (06:07):
Right.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
The only other option you have, really, you know, is
these lower level guards that on. Some Knights have it
and some Knights no. Some Knights Peyton Pritchard has it,
sometimes he doesn't. Sometimes Derek White has it, sometimes he doesn't.
Putting Jason Tatum into the equation, and I don't think
it'll be perfect right away. I think there will be
some kind of like growing pains as they try to
implement him into an offense that has such a different
rhythm this year, with a different kind of set of
(06:30):
usage distribution.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
Right So it won't be perfect right.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
Away, But in the long run, Jason Tatum gives you
a different vehicle with which to break down the defense,
a different way to attack drop coverage, a different way
to attack specific matchups on the floor. Jason Tatum is
a better passer than Jylen Brown is. Like you guys
know how I feel, generally speaking, As long as you
guys are actually willing to take catch and shoot threes,
which I think both Tatum and Brown are, this can
(06:55):
work and everyone can coexist, and I mean they want
a championship together, so we don't need to overthink that.
I just think Jason Tatum comes in and provides variety
and flexibility and their shot creation and variety in flexibility
in their defensive scheming, and immediately it's going to make
them a lot better. Is it going to manifest in
some massive improvement in the metrics that are coming out
of this team. No, because there are already some of
(07:16):
the strongest metrics in the league. All it is is
going to give them a level of resilience against the
upper level competition where they've had some issues. They got
chewed up and spit out by Charlotte, they got their
ass beat. They got chewed up and spit out by Denver.
They got their ass beat. These are teams that have
you know, Charlotte's been the best team in the league
for the last you know, since January twenty second. Denver
obviously is the team I have second in my list
(07:38):
of championship contenders. So like, there's an upper echelon in
the league that Boston's really gonna need Jason Tatum for
and I'm just really glad that he's back. All right,
let's get to our mail back questions. I'm super excited
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full terms and conditions. Jason, thanks for all the great work.
My question is is it time to acknowledge Cam Johnson
doesn't have that competitive gene to show up in big
games or in the playoffs. I don't think I would
go that far, but I do think it's time to
acknowledge that, at least to this point. At least to
this point in the regular season, the Cam Johnson trade
(09:46):
looks like a disaster.
Speaker 2 (09:48):
I am not.
Speaker 1 (09:49):
Trying to preach at any point here, because you guys
know that I advocated for this trade. This is a
trade that I really liked. The specific thought process I
had was pretty simple. I thought Denver was rocking two
power forwards, and I thought that having a small forward,
a traditional small forward who has more perimeter utility, especially defensively,
the ability to guard on the perimeter more and just
(10:11):
more foot speed, it would increase the foot speed of
their lineup, give them more perimeter defenders in their lineup.
It wouldn't be as good of a defensive rebounder or
secondary rim protector as Michael Porter Junior, but he'd be
able to bring a lot of the jump shooting. And
what's ended up happening is Cam just hasn't shot the
ball well enough, and that's really been the disaster. Say
what you want, like even the like, I would argue
that the the like off the dribble coming off of
(10:35):
screens type stuff that Michael Porter Junior did, Cam has
kind of made up for with those things, meaning the
foot speed, the perimeter defense, things along those lines. Cam
Johnson has been a very useful player for Denver this year.
He just hasn't had anything close to Michael Porter Junior's upside,
and then when you add into that the fact that
he hasn't been able to hit a catch and cheo jumper,
(10:55):
it's been a disaster. So like, we don't need to
overthink this. You send out a first round pick for
a player that you can expect to be an upgrade
and instead he's been a downgrade. Of course, it's been
a disaster to this point. However, it's not over all.
I mean by that is the thing with shooting slumps
is eventually you get out of them, especially if you're
working hard behind the scenes and you're staying strong and
cam by all indications from everybody I talked to, is
(11:18):
working his butt off and doing everything he can to
get out of the shooting slump. And all you have
to do is go into a postseason series and have
a big game in a big spot, hit a couple
of big shots, and guess what. Michael Porter Junior did
hit a lot of catch and shoot threes, did put
up better numbers, did have all this utility as a
secondary room protector and defensive rebounder. But guess what in
the big spots against Oklahoma City, he couldn't hit a
(11:39):
catch and shoot three, So all of it didn't matter
because he couldn't hit a catch and shoot three against
Oklahoma City, which is why they traded him. Right, So,
like Cam has the like, I'm not going to sit
here and pretend and try to propagandize this idea that
Cam Johnson's been good when he hasn't. He's been a disappointment.
There's no way around it. He's been a disappointment. I
thought he'd be a slam dunk movie. I've been wrong
(12:01):
to this point. But all you have to do is
play well in the postseason and no one's gonna give
a shit what happened in February and March. So it's
incumbent on Cam to just continue to put that work
in and to get ready for this postseason run. And
if he can make an impact in that stage, no
one will give a damn. No one will be talking
about Michael Porter Junior anymore. Next question, Hey, Jason love
(12:23):
the show. As a Brazilian. I've been really surprised by
GUIs Santos's play this season. He made a big leap
and got a new contract. I think he's been a
very competent role player. He crashes the offensive glass, shoots
the three effectively, plays hard on defense, and can dribble
in pass.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
Have you watching Golden State games? What do you think
of him?
Speaker 1 (12:39):
Can he become an important player on a contender in
a winning context or is he just getting those numbers
because the Warriors are a bad.
Speaker 2 (12:45):
Team right now.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
I had been tuned out on Golden State for a
little bit, but I went on the sports radio in
the Bay Area, I think yesterday or the day before,
and so I did a bunch of prep for that,
and I ended up catching up on a bunch of
the Warriors games that I had been missing. And here's
the thing. I like Gis Santos a lot. He plays
that power forward spot in the way you're supposed to
in the modern MBA, simple and effective. He rebounds very well.
(13:09):
He has a career eight rebounds per thirty six minutes.
That's an outstanding number. He's a good catch and shoot
player who's equally proficient both when he's wide open and
under duress. He's about thirty nine percent in both cases
the season, about sixty reps in both cases the season.
So I love that balance when you're not just taking
the open ones, you're taking both and you're able to
hit both. He cuts baseline when the opening is there.
(13:31):
He's been over a cut per game this season. He
makes good decisions in the middle of the floor when
he's driving closeouts or when he's slipping out of screens.
Like all of this stuff is just basic things that
make a huge difference at that power forward spot when
you're playing alongside stars, because again, you're functioning as a cog.
You're not relied upon to break down the defense. He's
been an attentive defender that does his job. Like the
(13:54):
simplest way I could describe it to Warriors fans is
like I'd much rather pay Gis Santo's five million a
year than pay Ruy hachimurat eighteen million a year, and
they play the same position. Ruy's a better wide open
three point shooter shot, shooting over fifty percent on wide
open threes, but he only shoots when he's wide open.
You can chase him off the line with a hard
close out. He does have a mid range jump shot
(14:16):
that he can go to, like Ruy's got a you know,
Ruy'll have nights where he's hitting everything, and there's a
certain ceiling there, but he only shoots when he when
he's wide open. He can be chased off the line
or played into misses when he's against like really good
defenses are in big playoff spots. He's a ruey, is
a terrible rebounder for his position, and he's incredibly prone
(14:36):
to defensive mistakes. And so with Gee, you know, it's
a lower ceiling type of option, but you're paying a
tiny fraction of it, and there's actually a possession to
possession dependability that matters more when it comes to the
winningest levels of basketball in the NBA. Last thing with Gee,
he's shown me quite a bit this year putting the
ball on the floor in situations where he's had to.
(14:59):
He kind of like in sometimes in ISO situations, the
Warriors will be running off ball action, you know, Staph
will be running off of a screen or something, and
Gee will just rip through, and on the rip through,
he'll beat his man and then he'll like kind of
body him and knock him off his base and be
able to get to little scoop shots or finger rolls
around the basket. He's got a little bit of utility
off the bounce that I think is going to continue
(15:20):
to get better. I think his playmaking chops are stronger
than most role players that you'll see in this phase
of their development. Just I think he projects to be
a guy who can be a completely useful rotation power
forward on a serious team. And I think that getting
that on the margins the way that Golden State did
is just a testament to their culture and the types
of guys that they continue to find year in and
year out. Next question, we talked a lot about the
(15:43):
hypotheticals of players playing in different eras. What about coaches?
Do you think all the great coaches could coach in
any era? Is there any past coaches you think that
would be even more exceptional? Now, love the show and
excited to hear your thoughts. Thanks, thank you for supporting
the show. So I think that there are certain things
that work in any era no matter what. But like
I would say, the motivational part of it, like this
is boring because it's not really something that has a
(16:05):
lot of tangible subject matter to discuss in terms of
you know, x's and o's or basketball philosophies. But when
a coach is able to get buy in from his
team just on a very basic level in terms of
like playing hard, I would add to that like selflessness,
getting guys to believe in each other and believe in
(16:30):
the roles that they have, and to play for each other,
and to set individual goals aside in the pursuit of
team goals. Play like all of that stuff, I think
is like it's independent of the era that you're playing,
And that's just a fundamental basketball or fundamental coaching thing
that matters in basketball, matters in football, matters in any
(16:51):
team sport out there in the world. Can you get
you guys to play hard, and can you get them
to play for each other? And so I think that part,
I think is indiscriminate of the eras. But the part
of it that I think is important in terms of
transitioning between eras or being a coach that has its
skill set that translates between eras, comes down to being
open minded and willing to embrace change and paying attention
(17:13):
to league wide trends. The best example I can think
of with this is Greg Popovich. There was a phase
there with the Spurs about ten years ago where they
were shooting a ton of threes, just a shit a
ton of threes compared to the rest of the league,
and he was interviewed about it, and Popovich is sitting
there and he's like, I don't like this. He's like,
I don't like shooting a ton of threes, Like this isn't,
in my opinion, good for the game of basketball. But
(17:36):
this is what you gotta do to win. It's a
simple math problem, right, And like that's the thing. Greg
Popovich had that basketball philosophy, but he wasn't stubbornly tied
to that. He was willing to read the room, pay
attention to what was happening around the rest of the league,
and make a change in his approach that gave him
a better chance to win. And so I'd argue, in
this era, it's the possession battle. It's emphasis on ball pressure,
(18:00):
emphasis on corner crashing, emphasis on running your lanes and
transition to get easy opportunities there, like all of the
little things that can increase your possession margin that give
you a better chance to win. If you're a coach,
that's not finding you like and that doesn't mean every
team can do that, Like I it wouldn't matter if
(18:21):
you got you know, the greatest coach in the history
of world of the world that could ever be conceived.
If you put them in charge of the Los Angeles Lakers,
They're not going to go force a ton of turnovers.
They don't have the personnel for it, right. But like
every coach needs to be sitting down and looking at
their roster, looking at what they're good at, what they're
bad at, and being like, where can I generate margin?
(18:43):
Where can I generate you know, two or three extra
possessions a game that might give me a better chance
to win outside of just the static half court environment.
So again, I think I think it's it's just a
combination of can you get guys to play hard and
play for each other and can be open minded and
willing to change as the league changes around you. If
it's those two things, I think that you're going to
(19:06):
be successful regardless of what era you're in, And I
think all of the top coaches in the NBA kind
of fall into that category. There's a lot of talk
about offense being better than ever, but defensive schemes are
also more sophisticated than ever. Which one do you think
has a harder time adjusting to the other. Is it
harder for offenses to find new ways to score against
those new defensive schemes, or is it harder for defenses
(19:28):
to find ways to stop the offensive talent that we
have in our league now? In a sense, is the
evolution of the game more dictated by offensive development or
defensive development? This is a really good question. I would
argue that it's gone back and forth throughout NBA history.
This is something I've talked about on the show in
the distant past. It's been years since I've talked about it,
(19:49):
But just to give you some perspective, as you look
at NBA history, offensive ratings go up, and they go down,
and they go up and they go down. Now, in
the big picture, there's still trending upwards because of the
fact that the three point shot has just undergone this
massive inflation in attempts, and it's just a simple math
problem that early generations of the NBA could never hope
(20:12):
to keep up with. Right, But inside of that trend,
they're still up and down the season. This season, the
league average for offensive rating is one fifteen point three.
So if you took all thirty NBA teams and you
just added all their possessions and all their points, what
would be their points per one hundred possessions one to
(20:33):
fifteen point three. That's the highest ever in the recorded
history of the league. But it's kind of certain to plateau.
I think we're getting ready to have a downturn. I
would not be surprised if that happened in the next
year or two. So we're still on the way out.
But it does go back and forth. So famously, it
peaked about seventeen years ago in two thousand and nine.
(20:54):
It peaked right around like one oh eight, and then
it went through a decline phase and it went down
for several years, peaked back in nineteen ninety five, peaked
I think right around like one oh five I remember correctly,
and then it declined for several years. So, like it
is part of that process around the NBA is it's
not just the schematics, So like part of it is
(21:15):
like offensive schemes go one way, defensive schemes respond, or
defensive schemes enter the equation and offensive struggle for a
little while, but then they respond one of those two.
But there's also like a physicality piece with officiating. I
think that as the league starts to trend towards really
high scoring totals, I think there's phone calls that take
(21:36):
place from Adam Silver or David Stern in the distant
pass where it's like, hey, can we tighten this up
a little bit, make it, make it a little more physical.
All of a sudden, offensive ratings go down. And then
sometimes I think it gets too stuck in the mud,
and you have times like the early two thousands where
David Stern's making a very different phone call and it's like, hey,
like we can't be having dudes grabbing and hold in
(21:56):
every offensive player. The game is too ugly low scoring.
We need to open it up. So like it's a
combination of the officiating and the schematics, but ultimately like
it's just that it's that battle of schematic proficiency, right, So,
like you know you have a team that's switching, well,
the offense gets really good at hunting your smaller or
(22:17):
slower defenders. Okay, well, now that you're good at hunting smaller,
slower defenders, the really good defenses get good at pre
switching or scram switching different things to get guys out
of those matchups. Or they get really good at doubling
and gapping to make the floor feel smaller than it is.
And then with the doubling and the gapping, you have
teams working on things like pinin flares and different ideas
to try to create openings out of out of what
(22:41):
is a very difficult defensive coverage to go against. Right, So,
like that battle is constantly going back and forth. It'll
always go back and forth. But like, I think we're
seeing kind of a renaissance of deep drop coverage this year,
like really deep drop coverage this year, because teams are
realizing that actually, like on many nights, guys just won't
make enough shots against the deep drop coverage to beat you.
And so like I've seen a lot more of that,
(23:02):
particularly this season. So there's always going to be that
kind of chess match back and forth going between the
two sides, and it'll always kind of go up and
down as the two sides react to each other, mixed
in with the physicality that the referees allow.
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or Virginia. Hey, Jason, why don't you think assists get
(24:53):
as much importance in MVP conversations as point per game?
Player like Shay averages six more points per game than
k with kad to averag just three more assists per games.
So whatuldn't that mean they contribute the same number of points,
but Kai gets his team more involved, aka more valuable
to his team. So I don't really look at just
straight counting stats very much at all. I tend to
(25:13):
think that they are a product of play style and usage.
Distribution and all these like different things. I look at
a lot of like play type data, like how efficient
is a Cad pick and roll on a points per
possession basis? How efficient is a Shai Gilgess Alexander pick
and roll on a per possession basis? Those are usually
(25:34):
the kinds of things I look at, or like team
wide stats, like your job as a as a offensive
engine is to create offense for your entire team, right,
It's not just to create offense for yourself. I've been
critical about this, specifically with with Luca this season, Like
there are times where I feel like Lucas putting up
his numbers, but it's not necessarily leading to success team
(25:56):
wide in the in the goal of the team to
generate as much as much team offense as possible. I'm
pulling up the pick and roll efficiency numbers right now.
So like for example, Shay, when Shae runs a ball screen,
it's worth one point one to two points per possession
including passes. When Kaid runs a ball screen, it's worth
(26:16):
one point zero three points per possession including passes. Now
that gets a little bit more complicated because the the
off ball personnel is different for it.
Speaker 2 (26:24):
So there's no harder fast rule.
Speaker 1 (26:26):
I say talk about this all the time with some
of the people that I've debated about analytics with. I've
talked to people who have NBA like actual media votes
who are like, oh, I have to use numbers because
otherwise my biases will get in the way. And I'm like,
that would make sense if the numbers actually were like
a harder fast rule to interpret the value of a
basketball player.
Speaker 2 (26:46):
But it's just not.
Speaker 1 (26:47):
Ultimately, basketball is more art than science. Ultimately, there are
too many moving parts for it to be synthesized down
to a single number or even a set of numbers,
and so the data as value. But I'm all always
going to trust my eyes and like, just very simply,
how many times have you watched Caid or Shay this
year and been like, man, kid's a better player than Shay.
(27:08):
It's not something you're thinking when you're watching the two games.
Kate's having an incredible season. To your point about the MVP, like,
I think there's a version of this. Actually I'll skip
ahead to another question because it meant mentions this specifically
big fan and watch it from Australia. Is it just
me or is Kate Cunningham's MVP hype really overrated. That's
twice in the last two weeks he's been taken completely
out of the game with good game plans. Harden had
(27:29):
a terrible game by his standards, and still the Cavs
looked well in control with no Donovan. So that's the
thing I talked about with Kaid, like there was a
chance for him to get MVP right around the All
Star break if he would have come out and just
kicked everyone's ask. The rest of the season averaged like
twenty eight point triple double and like sixty two percentury shooting,
and the Pistons finished with the best record in the league.
I think Cad would have had a case, but ultimately,
(27:49):
you have to play the games, and when you play
the games, CAD's had some bad games, particularly against teams
that can really protect the rim and they can put big,
physical perimeter defenders on him. With Kate, he's in this
phase of his career right now that you see with
a lot of stars where they're really putting out wow performances.
The big picture numbers look really good, the team's success
(28:12):
is there, but there's the lack of, like the really
refined stuff you need to succeed at the highest levels.
That usually comes a few years later. That's kind of
where we're at with Kate. Like Shay's numbers look more
or less the same as they have. His efficiency has
gone up with the addition of the three point shot
this year, But with Shay, it's it's it's less about
the big picture numbers or even the team success. The
(28:33):
Thunder haven't been as good as they were last year.
But what it comes down to is in any big game,
Shay just looks so in command and in control. He's
like he have bad games, but there's so much more
rare than they used to be. And like you, like
if you were going into a big let's say that
you have a like a Thunder, a big game game
(28:55):
five between the Thunder and you know, some second round
opponent like Houston, and you go into the gamer, do
you go into that game thinking like, man, I wonder
if Shay's gonna have it tonight? Like, no, You're like,
Shay's probably gonna have it tonight because he's just he
seems to have figured out so much over the years.
He's clicked into a different phase of his career in
terms of confidence and consistency, cad Big Game five, You're like,
(29:19):
man like, maybe he'll be great, maybe he won't. Right,
I grew up as a Lebron fan. That was how
I felt in his first calv stint. I was like,
I wonder if Lebron's gonna have it tonight, right towards
the like by twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, I used to
talk about it all the time, like like there was
no safer bet in the NBA to play great in
a big game than Lebron. It was just like the
(29:41):
big playoff game tonight. Lebron's gonna have at least a
twenty eight eight to eight, and he's gonna be efficient,
and he's gonna look like the best player on the floor,
and he's gonna look in complete command and control of
everything even if they lose. There's just like a level
of consistency that you get to when you reach that
later phase. So, to make a long story short, yeah,
Caide's averaging more assists than Shaye this year. Doesn't mean
(30:01):
he's been better at creating shots for himself or for
his team. Doesn't mean he's better than Shaye as a
basketball player. Doesn't mean Kay can't win MVP one day.
It's just gonna be a little while. He's got some
stuff he's got to figure out before then. While the
Spurs are clearly an elite regular season team, it would
be unprecedented for them to win a championship with a
small amount of playoff experience on this roster. Do you
believe this is a factor that will hinder their ability
(30:23):
to be actually a threat to win the championship this year?
So what happens with these kinds of teams is you
end up looking at the discussion and you go, Okay,
they have all just the things that you would want
to see with a championship contender.
Speaker 2 (30:34):
Like let's go back to.
Speaker 1 (30:36):
Twenty twenty four Oka, see like number one overall seed
Shae looks like one of the best players in the world.
All the role players are putting it together, really strong
net rating data, like all these really strong indicators, right,
But there's an age kind of like inexperienced factor that
(30:58):
you want to consider. And so what ends up happing
they get into the postseason, they run into it an
older veteran, more experienced Golden Dallas excuse me, Dallas Mavericks
team LUKEA has already been on a conference finals run.
Kyrie Irving has literally been to the NBA Finals four
times and won a championship in twenty sixteen. Like, they're better,
(31:18):
they're more comfortable. They end up getting out of there
with the win. Right, But then okay, see the following year.
Off of the experience that they gained in that season,
even though they won seed, they come back to next season,
they kick everyone's ass to the runaway one seed. They
end up winning the championship, and even with their youth,
they still flirted with disaster against Denver and Indiana. Right,
(31:38):
so with San Antonio, like they're gonna be the two
seed this year, this is that they're in there. Like
OKAC twenty twenty four season, they're super talented. It's abundantly
clear that their star is super legit as like a
foundational guy who can win a championship. All the metrics
that you want to see, offense, defense, rebounding, controlling margins.
Speaker 2 (31:57):
All that kind of stuff. Everything looks good.
Speaker 1 (31:59):
But they're young, and so that's what leads you to
believe that they're likely headed to something like a second
round exit. But the one thing I'll say that makes
this Spurs team a little different. Victor Wmenyama doesn't resemble
any other young player that came before. There are parts
of his game that don't need experience. There are parts
of his game that don't need playoff reps in order
(32:20):
to be impactful, and that's the defensive end of the floor.
I was looking at these numbers the other day because
I think Underdog ended up tweeting them out, and I
thought it was really fascinating. They had a tweet where
they just listed all of the top net ratings in
the league among players. Of the top eight, seven of
them were Celtics or Thunder players, and then fifth on
that list was Victor Wemenyama. Victor is a game breaking
(32:45):
talent on the defensive end of the floor in a
way that we've never seen before. So while all those
things I said about young teams are true, I wouldn't
be surprised if San Antonio won the title this year.
I can't write them out or write them off because
this Victor thing is such a strange variable. It's such
a different variable. So like, honestly, it's really as simple
(33:07):
to me. I could see them losing in the second round.
I don't think they'll lose a first round series because
they'll get a play in team and I think they'll
beat whoever gets at it, Like even if it's the Clippers,
I think the Spurs will beat the Clippers. But like,
whatever they get out of the once they get out
of the first round, whoever they play in the second round,
I could see them losing there. I could see them
beating Oklahoma City in the conference finals and making it
to the finals and you know, losing to the Knicks
(33:27):
or beating one of the other Eastern Conference teams. Like,
there's really not a playoff outcome with San Antonio this
year that I feel off the table, whereas with other
examples of young teams, like take Charlotte for example, Charlotte's
been the best team in the league for the last
month and a half. You know, like Charlotte just kicked
Boston's ass. But if Charlotte played Boston in the playoff series,
(33:47):
I'd pick Boston because they Charlotte, as good as they are,
they don't have a victor women Ya'm a game breaking
type of talent. They're just a really good young team,
and really good young teams tend to run into really
good veteran teams and get beat when they get to
the postseason Two more, Jason, is it possible for the
Pelicans to build a defense around Derek Queen in the
same way that the Nuggets have built a defense around Jokic.
(34:09):
If not, will Queen ever be able to truly be
an effective star or All Star with the holes in
his defense. So the big difference between Derek Queen and
Nikola Jokic is there is the lack of the strong
defensive foundation that comes from Yokic's defensive rebounding. So Jokic
is such a good defensive rebounder, and he's such a
(34:30):
big body that like, he's a bonafide center, And there's
a way to build around a bona fide center with
his defensive limitations, and that's usually with a big, athletic
forward behind him, a guy like Aaron Gordon that can
operate as the other side of the bracket and his
pick and roll coverages, right, like a guy who can
be a secondary rim protector who could be a low
man when Nikola Jokic comes up to the level. Those
are all the things that work. But Jokic is just
(34:52):
an unbelievable defensive rebounder that's a really strong defensive trade.
He's also a very high IQ defender. Derek Queen could
become a very high IQ defender. He's never going to
be a good enough defensive rebounder, I think for that
to be the one thing he's great at on defense,
and so I think if your goal is to view
Derek Queen as a legitimate, like foundational player, not like
(35:15):
a backup center who can kill teams for fifteen minutes
a night, but like a real foundational player, I think
he's got to be alongside a guy who can both
shoot threes and protect the rim, like he's got to
essentially play the four, and like, I think more like
Carl Anthony Towns, right, Karl Anthony Towns is the guy
that you're looking at in that specific case.
Speaker 2 (35:32):
But that's hard to do.
Speaker 1 (35:34):
It's really hard to find a rim protecting center that
can really shoot, Like we're talking about Victor wimen Yama
and Chet and then Christops Porzingis who can't stay healthy,
you know, Like there's very few of these guys in
the league, and most of them are considered all of
them are considered stars.
Speaker 2 (35:48):
When they're healthy. So it's it's just going to be really.
Speaker 1 (35:51):
Hard from that specific standpoint, but there's always that opportunity
for him as a bench guy who can score in
bunches and short shifts off the bench against units that
are smaller and don't have the same issues that starting lineups.
Percent just gonna be really hard for him to anchor
as a five because I don't think he's a good
enough defensive rebounder. Last question, has the problem of how
(36:12):
to guard Yokic been solved? Sandwich him, grapple him, hold
on to him knowing you won't get many foul calls,
or do you think there's a way that you can
work around it? And yes, I do concede that he's
flopping a lot. Thanks for having a great show as always,
thanks for supporting the show. I don't think he's been solved.
I just think he's in a really bad shooting slump
and the numbers are actually crazy. So since he came
back from his injury, he's shooting just twenty four percent
from three, shooting just forty percent from mid range, and
(36:35):
he's shooting forty nine percent on non restricted area twos.
So like in the paint, so like short range shots,
floaters hooks things along those lines typically like before all
that he's about forty five percent from three, he's about
fifty five percent from mid range, and he's like sixty
five percent on those non restricted area paint twos. So
(36:55):
like we're talking about a dramatic shooting slump from Nikola Jokich,
they would not overthink it. I think this is gonna
eventually come back around for him, and I would imagine
that by the time we get to the postseason, he's
gonna look very much like Nikola Jokic. I'm recording this
on Thursday. I'm actually going tonight to Laker's Nuggets, which
I'm very very excited about, sitting a couple rows behind
(37:15):
the Lakers bench. And I've been to three NBA games before,
but they were all kind of lower profile games. It
was a random Pelican Suns game back in the day
when Anthony Davis was with the Pelicans. AD got a
game winner in that game, like an offensive rebound put back.
I saw Kyrie Irving's first game back from his pateller
(37:36):
injury in the year that they won the title in
twenty sixteen. It's actually in December of twenty fifteen. It
was before before Tyleru became the coach and Kyrie's first
came back. He didn't really play great, but he ended
up hitting a huge clutch three off of the left wing.
And then I watched Lebron in the Cavs in twenty
seventeen in Charlotte against a really bad Hornets team. Lebron
(38:00):
went off for like thirty eight points and hit a
bunch of threes. It was a big game from him there.
But so like the three games I've been to are
are like like either two bad teams playing or Lebron
Cavs teams playing against bad teams. So like tonight, I'm
gonna get to see, you know, two of the best
teams in the Western Conference, at least by record. I
think the Lakers kind of stick out like a sore thumb,
but two of the best teams in the Western Conference.
(38:21):
I don't think either team's gonna be able to guard
each other. The star power is gonna be crazy, Luca Lebron,
Nicole Jokic, Jamal Murray, the crowd should be insane. Both
teams really really need this game. The Nuggets have been
slipping for a while. The Lakers desperately need to win
against a good team. So like, I'm really really excited
to go watch that. I know you guys are hearing
this on Friday, so you already know what happens, but
(38:43):
I will be I'll be going on for those of
you guys listening to the mail bag. I'll be going
on with the Lakers Collective guys at eleven am Pacific
on Friday today, so you'll get to hear my reaction
to the game then, and I'll also talk about it
in more detail when we get some Monday. But thanks,
as always for important the show guys. I will see
you guys on Monday for our power rankings.
Speaker 2 (39:04):
Have a great weekend.
The volume. All right, we'll go to Hoops Tonight. You're
at the volume, Hay Friday and everybody. I hope all
of you guys are having a great end to your week.
As usual, today is mail bag Day. I have a
(00:23):
ten pack of questions from you guys. If you ever
want to get questions into the mail bags, all you
gotta do is go to our full episodes on YouTube
the comments underneath right mail bag with the colon write
your question. That helps me sort through it when I'm
looking through the comments. We'll get to them on Fridays
throughout the remainder of the season.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
You guys are the joke.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
Before we get started, to subscribe to the Hoops Tonight
YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos.
Don't forget to like this video as well as sign
up for post notifications.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
That helps us a lot.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
And then, as mentioned, drop your mail bag questions if
you want to get in the future mail bags. All right,
let's talk some basketball now before we get to our
actual mail bag questions. Jason Tatum is making his return
tonight against the Dallas Maps, an incredible show of resilience
and dedication to recover as quickly as he did. I
think that's less than ten months on an achilles repair.
(01:08):
That's really really impressive work behind the scenes from Jason
Tatum to make it back. I just imagine for any
basketball player, that's probably the most discouraging injury that you
can possibly suffer. And so to keep your head down
and stay focused on the work and to get through
it the way that he did, I just think is
super impressive. Now, I was talking about this with Colin
(01:29):
Coward yesterday, but you know, culture is a thing that
I think is a foundational part of any perennially successful
basketball program of any kind, whether it's a college, in
high school or in the pros. Right Like, if you
have a strong basketball culture, it's going to be the
thing that helps you be competitive when you have a
(01:50):
roster that's limited in one reason or another, or to
meet your absolute potential when you do have a lot
of talent. Right Like, there's just the culture is the
foundational skill, the foundational thing that allows you to be
successful year in year out. But it only can go
so far. And I think that the Celtics this season
have been an example of that in the sense that
(02:11):
they've been one of the most impressive teams statistically, a
lot of the metrics coming out of them are super impressive.
Like I was talking, I'm gonna talk a little bit
about this with Wemby later, the net rating data. When
you pulled players with net rating at the top of
the league, it's a lot of Celtics and it's a
lot of thunder players. The Celtics have been a team
that on the scoreboard, because of their strong culture, have
done a lot of damage this year, and they've been
(02:31):
very successful in the stainings. I view them as every
bit as good as the other teams in that top
tier in the East, like I view them more or
less on the same level as Cleveland or Detroit or
New York. Now, I personally have Cleveland and New York
a tiny bit above them as of right this second,
but that's because of the same thing that I was
just discussing. I viewed this season as an incredibly impressive
(02:52):
demonstration of the culture that Joe Missoula and Brad Stevens
have built in Boston, But ultimately you need talent. One
of the consistence they distant things that has shown up
for me this season when Boston is run into certain
types of defense the certain types of opponents, the limitation
in some of their personnel group starts to show up. So,
(03:12):
for instance, take the Charlotte game from Wednesday night. For example,
they're bigs, they were sitting back in a deep drop,
and they're not really fast enough to really get into
some aggressive coverages out on the perimeter. Boston will have
some small ball looks, especially with Tatum coming back, but
like they had some scheme versatility problems against the Hornets
as they just barbecued their deep drop coverage with a
(03:33):
variety of short range, mid range jump shots, floaters, six
pull up threes in that game, four of which were
directly at a ball screens into deep drop situations. And
so one of the things I noticed when I was
watching that game was like, this is the kind of
thing that Jason Tatum used to be a solution for.
You know, like a lot of teams, they're pick and
roll geometry is predicated on either having a center that
(03:57):
can roll or maybe a guard who can flip in
and out of screens. And so if you can place
your center on someone else, you can put the defense
or the offense into a situation where they have to
do a lot of things that they don't usually do.
The problem is if you do that, someone else has
to guard their center. And if you end up with
someone that's too small or physically incapable of hanging with
(04:19):
that center, you can have all sorts of problems on
the offensive glass. Certain centers will do issues or do
damage to you in the post. There's a problem if
you don't have someone that can guard that center. Take
this Hornets matchup for example, Jason Tatum is healthy, as
we saw so much last year, He's physically capable of
guarding opponent centers because he can keep them off the glass,
(04:40):
and he's not a significant target as a post mismatch, right,
So if he's able to guard Mussa diabat, and I
think Jason Tatum with Romos Diabate around, he's got like
a legit strength advantage there, a low center of gravity
advantage there. Maybe you tuck your center onto Miles Bridges.
Miles Bridges, who's shooting thirty three percent from three this year,
who has specifically struggled on threes slipping out of ball screens.
(05:03):
All of a sudden, you make the Hornets do something
that they don't necessarily want to do. That is a
coverage option that was unavailable to the Celtics the season
because their forwards weren't big and strong enough. And so
Jason Tatum coming back immediately gives you that optionality, that flexibility,
that versatility in your defensive scheming because of his ability
to guard centers. Not to mention, if you're going to
(05:25):
play small ball looks, you need a really strong defensive,
rebounding forward somewhere in there, and Jason Tatum can play
that role. The second piece of it is the shot
creation element. We talked about this a lot over the
course of this season in specific matchups, like I talked
about how Denver, for example, used deep drop on Jalen
Brown to cause problems Charlotte, you know, was a mix
(05:47):
Diabate did some switching. Jalen had some success against those
switches in the early fourth quarter, but for the most part,
in drop coverage looks, Jalen was running into problems backpet
pressure kind of funneling him into the lane. He was
rushing things over, penetrating missing shots around the basket. It
was not a great game for Jaylen Brown as a
shot creator.
Speaker 2 (06:07):
Right.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
The only other option you have, really, you know, is
these lower level guards that on. Some Knights have it
and some Knights no. Some Knights Peyton Pritchard has it,
sometimes he doesn't. Sometimes Derek White has it, sometimes he doesn't.
Putting Jason Tatum into the equation, and I don't think
it'll be perfect right away. I think there will be
some kind of like growing pains as they try to
implement him into an offense that has such a different
rhythm this year, with a different kind of set of
(06:30):
usage distribution.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
Right So it won't be perfect right.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
Away, But in the long run, Jason Tatum gives you
a different vehicle with which to break down the defense,
a different way to attack drop coverage, a different way
to attack specific matchups on the floor. Jason Tatum is
a better passer than Jylen Brown is. Like you guys
know how I feel, generally speaking, As long as you
guys are actually willing to take catch and shoot threes,
which I think both Tatum and Brown are, this can
(06:55):
work and everyone can coexist, and I mean they want
a championship together, so we don't need to overthink that.
I just think Jason Tatum comes in and provides variety
and flexibility and their shot creation and variety in flexibility
in their defensive scheming, and immediately it's going to make
them a lot better. Is it going to manifest in
some massive improvement in the metrics that are coming out
of this team. No, because there are already some of
(07:16):
the strongest metrics in the league. All it is is
going to give them a level of resilience against the
upper level competition where they've had some issues. They got
chewed up and spit out by Charlotte, they got their
ass beat. They got chewed up and spit out by Denver.
They got their ass beat. These are teams that have
you know, Charlotte's been the best team in the league
for the last you know, since January twenty second. Denver
obviously is the team I have second in my list
(07:38):
of championship contenders. So like, there's an upper echelon in
the league that Boston's really gonna need Jason Tatum for
and I'm just really glad that he's back. All right,
let's get to our mail back questions. I'm super excited
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full terms and conditions. Jason, thanks for all the great work.
My question is is it time to acknowledge Cam Johnson
doesn't have that competitive gene to show up in big
games or in the playoffs. I don't think I would
go that far, but I do think it's time to
acknowledge that, at least to this point. At least to
this point in the regular season, the Cam Johnson trade
(09:46):
looks like a disaster.
Speaker 2 (09:48):
I am not.
Speaker 1 (09:49):
Trying to preach at any point here, because you guys
know that I advocated for this trade. This is a
trade that I really liked. The specific thought process I
had was pretty simple. I thought Denver was rocking two
power forwards, and I thought that having a small forward,
a traditional small forward who has more perimeter utility, especially defensively,
the ability to guard on the perimeter more and just
(10:11):
more foot speed, it would increase the foot speed of
their lineup, give them more perimeter defenders in their lineup.
It wouldn't be as good of a defensive rebounder or
secondary rim protector as Michael Porter Junior, but he'd be
able to bring a lot of the jump shooting. And
what's ended up happening is Cam just hasn't shot the
ball well enough, and that's really been the disaster. Say
what you want, like even the like, I would argue
that the the like off the dribble coming off of
(10:35):
screens type stuff that Michael Porter Junior did, Cam has
kind of made up for with those things, meaning the
foot speed, the perimeter defense, things along those lines. Cam
Johnson has been a very useful player for Denver this year.
He just hasn't had anything close to Michael Porter Junior's upside,
and then when you add into that the fact that
he hasn't been able to hit a catch and cheo jumper,
(10:55):
it's been a disaster. So like, we don't need to
overthink this. You send out a first round pick for
a player that you can expect to be an upgrade
and instead he's been a downgrade. Of course, it's been
a disaster to this point. However, it's not over all.
I mean by that is the thing with shooting slumps
is eventually you get out of them, especially if you're
working hard behind the scenes and you're staying strong and
cam by all indications from everybody I talked to, is
(11:18):
working his butt off and doing everything he can to
get out of the shooting slump. And all you have
to do is go into a postseason series and have
a big game in a big spot, hit a couple
of big shots, and guess what. Michael Porter Junior did
hit a lot of catch and shoot threes, did put
up better numbers, did have all this utility as a
secondary room protector and defensive rebounder. But guess what in
the big spots against Oklahoma City, he couldn't hit a
(11:39):
catch and shoot three, So all of it didn't matter
because he couldn't hit a catch and shoot three against
Oklahoma City, which is why they traded him. Right, So,
like Cam has the like, I'm not going to sit
here and pretend and try to propagandize this idea that
Cam Johnson's been good when he hasn't. He's been a disappointment.
There's no way around it. He's been a disappointment. I
thought he'd be a slam dunk movie. I've been wrong
(12:01):
to this point. But all you have to do is
play well in the postseason and no one's gonna give
a shit what happened in February and March. So it's
incumbent on Cam to just continue to put that work
in and to get ready for this postseason run. And
if he can make an impact in that stage, no
one will give a damn. No one will be talking
about Michael Porter Junior anymore. Next question, Hey, Jason love
(12:23):
the show. As a Brazilian. I've been really surprised by
GUIs Santos's play this season. He made a big leap
and got a new contract. I think he's been a
very competent role player. He crashes the offensive glass, shoots
the three effectively, plays hard on defense, and can dribble
in pass.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
Have you watching Golden State games? What do you think
of him?
Speaker 1 (12:39):
Can he become an important player on a contender in
a winning context or is he just getting those numbers
because the Warriors are a bad.
Speaker 2 (12:45):
Team right now.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
I had been tuned out on Golden State for a
little bit, but I went on the sports radio in
the Bay Area, I think yesterday or the day before,
and so I did a bunch of prep for that,
and I ended up catching up on a bunch of
the Warriors games that I had been missing. And here's
the thing. I like Gis Santos a lot. He plays
that power forward spot in the way you're supposed to
in the modern MBA, simple and effective. He rebounds very well.
(13:09):
He has a career eight rebounds per thirty six minutes.
That's an outstanding number. He's a good catch and shoot
player who's equally proficient both when he's wide open and
under duress. He's about thirty nine percent in both cases
the season, about sixty reps in both cases the season.
So I love that balance when you're not just taking
the open ones, you're taking both and you're able to
hit both. He cuts baseline when the opening is there.
(13:31):
He's been over a cut per game this season. He
makes good decisions in the middle of the floor when
he's driving closeouts or when he's slipping out of screens.
Like all of this stuff is just basic things that
make a huge difference at that power forward spot when
you're playing alongside stars, because again, you're functioning as a cog.
You're not relied upon to break down the defense. He's
been an attentive defender that does his job. Like the
(13:54):
simplest way I could describe it to Warriors fans is
like I'd much rather pay Gis Santo's five million a
year than pay Ruy hachimurat eighteen million a year, and
they play the same position. Ruy's a better wide open
three point shooter shot, shooting over fifty percent on wide
open threes, but he only shoots when he's wide open.
You can chase him off the line with a hard
close out. He does have a mid range jump shot
(14:16):
that he can go to, like Ruy's got a you know,
Ruy'll have nights where he's hitting everything, and there's a
certain ceiling there, but he only shoots when he when
he's wide open. He can be chased off the line
or played into misses when he's against like really good
defenses are in big playoff spots. He's a ruey, is
a terrible rebounder for his position, and he's incredibly prone
(14:36):
to defensive mistakes. And so with Gee, you know, it's
a lower ceiling type of option, but you're paying a
tiny fraction of it, and there's actually a possession to
possession dependability that matters more when it comes to the
winningest levels of basketball in the NBA. Last thing with Gee,
he's shown me quite a bit this year putting the
ball on the floor in situations where he's had to.
(14:59):
He kind of like in sometimes in ISO situations, the
Warriors will be running off ball action, you know, Staph
will be running off of a screen or something, and
Gee will just rip through, and on the rip through,
he'll beat his man and then he'll like kind of
body him and knock him off his base and be
able to get to little scoop shots or finger rolls
around the basket. He's got a little bit of utility
off the bounce that I think is going to continue
(15:20):
to get better. I think his playmaking chops are stronger
than most role players that you'll see in this phase
of their development. Just I think he projects to be
a guy who can be a completely useful rotation power
forward on a serious team. And I think that getting
that on the margins the way that Golden State did
is just a testament to their culture and the types
of guys that they continue to find year in and
year out. Next question, we talked a lot about the
(15:43):
hypotheticals of players playing in different eras. What about coaches?
Do you think all the great coaches could coach in
any era? Is there any past coaches you think that
would be even more exceptional? Now, love the show and
excited to hear your thoughts. Thanks, thank you for supporting
the show. So I think that there are certain things
that work in any era no matter what. But like
I would say, the motivational part of it, like this
is boring because it's not really something that has a
(16:05):
lot of tangible subject matter to discuss in terms of
you know, x's and o's or basketball philosophies. But when
a coach is able to get buy in from his
team just on a very basic level in terms of
like playing hard, I would add to that like selflessness,
getting guys to believe in each other and believe in
(16:30):
the roles that they have, and to play for each other,
and to set individual goals aside in the pursuit of
team goals. Play like all of that stuff, I think
is like it's independent of the era that you're playing,
And that's just a fundamental basketball or fundamental coaching thing
that matters in basketball, matters in football, matters in any
(16:51):
team sport out there in the world. Can you get
you guys to play hard, and can you get them
to play for each other? And so I think that part,
I think is indiscriminate of the eras. But the part
of it that I think is important in terms of
transitioning between eras or being a coach that has its
skill set that translates between eras, comes down to being
open minded and willing to embrace change and paying attention
(17:13):
to league wide trends. The best example I can think
of with this is Greg Popovich. There was a phase
there with the Spurs about ten years ago where they
were shooting a ton of threes, just a shit a
ton of threes compared to the rest of the league,
and he was interviewed about it, and Popovich is sitting
there and he's like, I don't like this. He's like,
I don't like shooting a ton of threes, Like this isn't,
in my opinion, good for the game of basketball. But
(17:36):
this is what you gotta do to win. It's a
simple math problem, right, And like that's the thing. Greg
Popovich had that basketball philosophy, but he wasn't stubbornly tied
to that. He was willing to read the room, pay
attention to what was happening around the rest of the league,
and make a change in his approach that gave him
a better chance to win. And so I'd argue, in
this era, it's the possession battle. It's emphasis on ball pressure,
(18:00):
emphasis on corner crashing, emphasis on running your lanes and
transition to get easy opportunities there, like all of the
little things that can increase your possession margin that give
you a better chance to win. If you're a coach,
that's not finding you like and that doesn't mean every
team can do that, Like I it wouldn't matter if
(18:21):
you got you know, the greatest coach in the history
of world of the world that could ever be conceived.
If you put them in charge of the Los Angeles Lakers,
They're not going to go force a ton of turnovers.
They don't have the personnel for it, right. But like
every coach needs to be sitting down and looking at
their roster, looking at what they're good at, what they're
bad at, and being like, where can I generate margin?
(18:43):
Where can I generate you know, two or three extra
possessions a game that might give me a better chance
to win outside of just the static half court environment.
So again, I think I think it's it's just a
combination of can you get guys to play hard and
play for each other and can be open minded and
willing to change as the league changes around you. If
it's those two things, I think that you're going to
(19:06):
be successful regardless of what era you're in, And I
think all of the top coaches in the NBA kind
of fall into that category. There's a lot of talk
about offense being better than ever, but defensive schemes are
also more sophisticated than ever. Which one do you think
has a harder time adjusting to the other. Is it
harder for offenses to find new ways to score against
those new defensive schemes, or is it harder for defenses
(19:28):
to find ways to stop the offensive talent that we
have in our league now? In a sense, is the
evolution of the game more dictated by offensive development or
defensive development? This is a really good question. I would
argue that it's gone back and forth throughout NBA history.
This is something I've talked about on the show in
the distant past. It's been years since I've talked about it,
(19:49):
But just to give you some perspective, as you look
at NBA history, offensive ratings go up, and they go down,
and they go up and they go down. Now, in
the big picture, there's still trending upwards because of the
fact that the three point shot has just undergone this
massive inflation in attempts, and it's just a simple math
problem that early generations of the NBA could never hope
(20:12):
to keep up with. Right, But inside of that trend,
they're still up and down the season. This season, the
league average for offensive rating is one fifteen point three.
So if you took all thirty NBA teams and you
just added all their possessions and all their points, what
would be their points per one hundred possessions one to
(20:33):
fifteen point three. That's the highest ever in the recorded
history of the league. But it's kind of certain to plateau.
I think we're getting ready to have a downturn. I
would not be surprised if that happened in the next
year or two. So we're still on the way out.
But it does go back and forth. So famously, it
peaked about seventeen years ago in two thousand and nine.
(20:54):
It peaked right around like one oh eight, and then
it went through a decline phase and it went down
for several years, peaked back in nineteen ninety five, peaked
I think right around like one oh five I remember correctly,
and then it declined for several years. So, like it
is part of that process around the NBA is it's
not just the schematics, So like part of it is
(21:15):
like offensive schemes go one way, defensive schemes respond, or
defensive schemes enter the equation and offensive struggle for a
little while, but then they respond one of those two.
But there's also like a physicality piece with officiating. I
think that as the league starts to trend towards really
high scoring totals, I think there's phone calls that take
(21:36):
place from Adam Silver or David Stern in the distant
pass where it's like, hey, can we tighten this up
a little bit, make it, make it a little more physical.
All of a sudden, offensive ratings go down. And then
sometimes I think it gets too stuck in the mud,
and you have times like the early two thousands where
David Stern's making a very different phone call and it's like, hey,
like we can't be having dudes grabbing and hold in
(21:56):
every offensive player. The game is too ugly low scoring.
We need to open it up. So like it's a
combination of the officiating and the schematics, but ultimately like
it's just that it's that battle of schematic proficiency, right, So,
like you know you have a team that's switching, well,
the offense gets really good at hunting your smaller or
(22:17):
slower defenders. Okay, well, now that you're good at hunting smaller,
slower defenders, the really good defenses get good at pre
switching or scram switching different things to get guys out
of those matchups. Or they get really good at doubling
and gapping to make the floor feel smaller than it is.
And then with the doubling and the gapping, you have
teams working on things like pinin flares and different ideas
to try to create openings out of out of what
(22:41):
is a very difficult defensive coverage to go against. Right, So,
like that battle is constantly going back and forth. It'll
always go back and forth. But like, I think we're
seeing kind of a renaissance of deep drop coverage this year,
like really deep drop coverage this year, because teams are
realizing that actually, like on many nights, guys just won't
make enough shots against the deep drop coverage to beat you.
And so like I've seen a lot more of that,
(23:02):
particularly this season. So there's always going to be that
kind of chess match back and forth going between the
two sides, and it'll always kind of go up and
down as the two sides react to each other, mixed
in with the physicality that the referees allow.
Speaker 2 (23:16):
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or Virginia. Hey, Jason, why don't you think assists get
(24:53):
as much importance in MVP conversations as point per game?
Player like Shay averages six more points per game than
k with kad to averag just three more assists per games.
So whatuldn't that mean they contribute the same number of points,
but Kai gets his team more involved, aka more valuable
to his team. So I don't really look at just
straight counting stats very much at all. I tend to
(25:13):
think that they are a product of play style and usage.
Distribution and all these like different things. I look at
a lot of like play type data, like how efficient
is a Cad pick and roll on a points per
possession basis? How efficient is a Shai Gilgess Alexander pick
and roll on a per possession basis? Those are usually
(25:34):
the kinds of things I look at, or like team
wide stats, like your job as a as a offensive
engine is to create offense for your entire team, right,
It's not just to create offense for yourself. I've been
critical about this, specifically with with Luca this season, Like
there are times where I feel like Lucas putting up
his numbers, but it's not necessarily leading to success team
(25:56):
wide in the in the goal of the team to
generate as much as much team offense as possible. I'm
pulling up the pick and roll efficiency numbers right now.
So like for example, Shay, when Shae runs a ball screen,
it's worth one point one to two points per possession
including passes. When Kaid runs a ball screen, it's worth
(26:16):
one point zero three points per possession including passes. Now
that gets a little bit more complicated because the the
off ball personnel is different for it.
Speaker 2 (26:24):
So there's no harder fast rule.
Speaker 1 (26:26):
I say talk about this all the time with some
of the people that I've debated about analytics with. I've
talked to people who have NBA like actual media votes
who are like, oh, I have to use numbers because
otherwise my biases will get in the way. And I'm like,
that would make sense if the numbers actually were like
a harder fast rule to interpret the value of a
basketball player.
Speaker 2 (26:46):
But it's just not.
Speaker 1 (26:47):
Ultimately, basketball is more art than science. Ultimately, there are
too many moving parts for it to be synthesized down
to a single number or even a set of numbers,
and so the data as value. But I'm all always
going to trust my eyes and like, just very simply,
how many times have you watched Caid or Shay this
year and been like, man, kid's a better player than Shay.
(27:08):
It's not something you're thinking when you're watching the two games.
Kate's having an incredible season. To your point about the MVP, like,
I think there's a version of this. Actually I'll skip
ahead to another question because it meant mentions this specifically
big fan and watch it from Australia. Is it just
me or is Kate Cunningham's MVP hype really overrated. That's
twice in the last two weeks he's been taken completely
out of the game with good game plans. Harden had
(27:29):
a terrible game by his standards, and still the Cavs
looked well in control with no Donovan. So that's the
thing I talked about with Kaid, like there was a
chance for him to get MVP right around the All
Star break if he would have come out and just
kicked everyone's ask. The rest of the season averaged like
twenty eight point triple double and like sixty two percentury shooting,
and the Pistons finished with the best record in the league.
I think Cad would have had a case, but ultimately,
(27:49):
you have to play the games, and when you play
the games, CAD's had some bad games, particularly against teams
that can really protect the rim and they can put big,
physical perimeter defenders on him. With Kate, he's in this
phase of his career right now that you see with
a lot of stars where they're really putting out wow performances.
The big picture numbers look really good, the team's success
(28:12):
is there, but there's the lack of, like the really
refined stuff you need to succeed at the highest levels.
That usually comes a few years later. That's kind of
where we're at with Kate. Like Shay's numbers look more
or less the same as they have. His efficiency has
gone up with the addition of the three point shot
this year, But with Shay, it's it's it's less about
the big picture numbers or even the team success. The
(28:33):
Thunder haven't been as good as they were last year.
But what it comes down to is in any big game,
Shay just looks so in command and in control. He's
like he have bad games, but there's so much more
rare than they used to be. And like you, like
if you were going into a big let's say that
you have a like a Thunder, a big game game
(28:55):
five between the Thunder and you know, some second round
opponent like Houston, and you go into the gamer, do
you go into that game thinking like, man, I wonder
if Shay's gonna have it tonight? Like, no, You're like,
Shay's probably gonna have it tonight because he's just he
seems to have figured out so much over the years.
He's clicked into a different phase of his career in
terms of confidence and consistency, cad Big Game five, You're like,
(29:19):
man like, maybe he'll be great, maybe he won't. Right,
I grew up as a Lebron fan. That was how
I felt in his first calv stint. I was like,
I wonder if Lebron's gonna have it tonight, right towards
the like by twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, I used to
talk about it all the time, like like there was
no safer bet in the NBA to play great in
a big game than Lebron. It was just like the
(29:41):
big playoff game tonight. Lebron's gonna have at least a
twenty eight eight to eight, and he's gonna be efficient,
and he's gonna look like the best player on the floor,
and he's gonna look in complete command and control of
everything even if they lose. There's just like a level
of consistency that you get to when you reach that
later phase. So, to make a long story short, yeah,
Caide's averaging more assists than Shaye this year. Doesn't mean
(30:01):
he's been better at creating shots for himself or for
his team. Doesn't mean he's better than Shaye as a
basketball player. Doesn't mean Kay can't win MVP one day.
It's just gonna be a little while. He's got some
stuff he's got to figure out before then. While the
Spurs are clearly an elite regular season team, it would
be unprecedented for them to win a championship with a
small amount of playoff experience on this roster. Do you
believe this is a factor that will hinder their ability
(30:23):
to be actually a threat to win the championship this year?
So what happens with these kinds of teams is you
end up looking at the discussion and you go, Okay,
they have all just the things that you would want
to see with a championship contender.
Speaker 2 (30:34):
Like let's go back to.
Speaker 1 (30:36):
Twenty twenty four Oka, see like number one overall seed
Shae looks like one of the best players in the world.
All the role players are putting it together, really strong
net rating data, like all these really strong indicators, right,
But there's an age kind of like inexperienced factor that
(30:58):
you want to consider. And so what ends up happing
they get into the postseason, they run into it an
older veteran, more experienced Golden Dallas excuse me, Dallas Mavericks
team LUKEA has already been on a conference finals run.
Kyrie Irving has literally been to the NBA Finals four
times and won a championship in twenty sixteen. Like, they're better,
(31:18):
they're more comfortable. They end up getting out of there
with the win. Right, But then okay, see the following year.
Off of the experience that they gained in that season,
even though they won seed, they come back to next season,
they kick everyone's ass to the runaway one seed. They
end up winning the championship, and even with their youth,
they still flirted with disaster against Denver and Indiana. Right,
(31:38):
so with San Antonio, like they're gonna be the two
seed this year, this is that they're in there. Like
OKAC twenty twenty four season, they're super talented. It's abundantly
clear that their star is super legit as like a
foundational guy who can win a championship. All the metrics
that you want to see, offense, defense, rebounding, controlling margins.
Speaker 2 (31:57):
All that kind of stuff. Everything looks good.
Speaker 1 (31:59):
But they're young, and so that's what leads you to
believe that they're likely headed to something like a second
round exit. But the one thing I'll say that makes
this Spurs team a little different. Victor Wmenyama doesn't resemble
any other young player that came before. There are parts
of his game that don't need experience. There are parts
of his game that don't need playoff reps in order
(32:20):
to be impactful, and that's the defensive end of the floor.
I was looking at these numbers the other day because
I think Underdog ended up tweeting them out, and I
thought it was really fascinating. They had a tweet where
they just listed all of the top net ratings in
the league among players. Of the top eight, seven of
them were Celtics or Thunder players, and then fifth on
that list was Victor Wemenyama. Victor is a game breaking
(32:45):
talent on the defensive end of the floor in a
way that we've never seen before. So while all those
things I said about young teams are true, I wouldn't
be surprised if San Antonio won the title this year.
I can't write them out or write them off because
this Victor thing is such a strange variable. It's such
a different variable. So like, honestly, it's really as simple
(33:07):
to me. I could see them losing in the second round.
I don't think they'll lose a first round series because
they'll get a play in team and I think they'll
beat whoever gets at it, Like even if it's the Clippers,
I think the Spurs will beat the Clippers. But like,
whatever they get out of the once they get out
of the first round, whoever they play in the second round,
I could see them losing there. I could see them
beating Oklahoma City in the conference finals and making it
to the finals and you know, losing to the Knicks
(33:27):
or beating one of the other Eastern Conference teams. Like,
there's really not a playoff outcome with San Antonio this
year that I feel off the table, whereas with other
examples of young teams, like take Charlotte for example, Charlotte's
been the best team in the league for the last
month and a half. You know, like Charlotte just kicked
Boston's ass. But if Charlotte played Boston in the playoff series,
(33:47):
I'd pick Boston because they Charlotte, as good as they are,
they don't have a victor women Ya'm a game breaking
type of talent. They're just a really good young team,
and really good young teams tend to run into really
good veteran teams and get beat when they get to
the postseason Two more, Jason, is it possible for the
Pelicans to build a defense around Derek Queen in the
same way that the Nuggets have built a defense around Jokic.
(34:09):
If not, will Queen ever be able to truly be
an effective star or All Star with the holes in
his defense. So the big difference between Derek Queen and
Nikola Jokic is there is the lack of the strong
defensive foundation that comes from Yokic's defensive rebounding. So Jokic
is such a good defensive rebounder, and he's such a
(34:30):
big body that like, he's a bonafide center, And there's
a way to build around a bona fide center with
his defensive limitations, and that's usually with a big, athletic
forward behind him, a guy like Aaron Gordon that can
operate as the other side of the bracket and his
pick and roll coverages, right, like a guy who can
be a secondary rim protector who could be a low
man when Nikola Jokic comes up to the level. Those
are all the things that work. But Jokic is just
(34:52):
an unbelievable defensive rebounder that's a really strong defensive trade.
He's also a very high IQ defender. Derek Queen could
become a very high IQ defender. He's never going to
be a good enough defensive rebounder, I think for that
to be the one thing he's great at on defense,
and so I think if your goal is to view
Derek Queen as a legitimate, like foundational player, not like
(35:15):
a backup center who can kill teams for fifteen minutes
a night, but like a real foundational player, I think
he's got to be alongside a guy who can both
shoot threes and protect the rim, like he's got to
essentially play the four, and like, I think more like
Carl Anthony Towns, right, Karl Anthony Towns is the guy
that you're looking at in that specific case.
Speaker 2 (35:32):
But that's hard to do.
Speaker 1 (35:34):
It's really hard to find a rim protecting center that
can really shoot, Like we're talking about Victor wimen Yama
and Chet and then Christops Porzingis who can't stay healthy,
you know, Like there's very few of these guys in
the league, and most of them are considered all of
them are considered stars.
Speaker 2 (35:48):
When they're healthy. So it's it's just going to be really.
Speaker 1 (35:51):
Hard from that specific standpoint, but there's always that opportunity
for him as a bench guy who can score in
bunches and short shifts off the bench against units that
are smaller and don't have the same issues that starting lineups.
Percent just gonna be really hard for him to anchor
as a five because I don't think he's a good
enough defensive rebounder. Last question, has the problem of how
(36:12):
to guard Yokic been solved? Sandwich him, grapple him, hold
on to him knowing you won't get many foul calls,
or do you think there's a way that you can
work around it? And yes, I do concede that he's
flopping a lot. Thanks for having a great show as always,
thanks for supporting the show. I don't think he's been solved.
I just think he's in a really bad shooting slump
and the numbers are actually crazy. So since he came
back from his injury, he's shooting just twenty four percent
from three, shooting just forty percent from mid range, and
(36:35):
he's shooting forty nine percent on non restricted area twos.
So like in the paint, so like short range shots,
floaters hooks things along those lines typically like before all
that he's about forty five percent from three, he's about
fifty five percent from mid range, and he's like sixty
five percent on those non restricted area paint twos. So
(36:55):
like we're talking about a dramatic shooting slump from Nikola Jokich,
they would not overthink it. I think this is gonna
eventually come back around for him, and I would imagine
that by the time we get to the postseason, he's
gonna look very much like Nikola Jokic. I'm recording this
on Thursday. I'm actually going tonight to Laker's Nuggets, which
I'm very very excited about, sitting a couple rows behind
(37:15):
the Lakers bench. And I've been to three NBA games before,
but they were all kind of lower profile games. It
was a random Pelican Suns game back in the day
when Anthony Davis was with the Pelicans. AD got a
game winner in that game, like an offensive rebound put back.
I saw Kyrie Irving's first game back from his pateller
(37:36):
injury in the year that they won the title in
twenty sixteen. It's actually in December of twenty fifteen. It
was before before Tyleru became the coach and Kyrie's first
came back. He didn't really play great, but he ended
up hitting a huge clutch three off of the left wing.
And then I watched Lebron in the Cavs in twenty
seventeen in Charlotte against a really bad Hornets team. Lebron
(38:00):
went off for like thirty eight points and hit a
bunch of threes. It was a big game from him there.
But so like the three games I've been to are
are like like either two bad teams playing or Lebron
Cavs teams playing against bad teams. So like tonight, I'm
gonna get to see, you know, two of the best
teams in the Western Conference, at least by record. I
think the Lakers kind of stick out like a sore thumb,
but two of the best teams in the Western Conference.
(38:21):
I don't think either team's gonna be able to guard
each other. The star power is gonna be crazy, Luca Lebron,
Nicole Jokic, Jamal Murray, the crowd should be insane. Both
teams really really need this game. The Nuggets have been
slipping for a while. The Lakers desperately need to win
against a good team. So like, I'm really really excited
to go watch that. I know you guys are hearing
this on Friday, so you already know what happens, but
(38:43):
I will be I'll be going on for those of
you guys listening to the mail bag. I'll be going
on with the Lakers Collective guys at eleven am Pacific
on Friday today, so you'll get to hear my reaction
to the game then, and I'll also talk about it
in more detail when we get some Monday. But thanks,
as always for important the show guys. I will see
you guys on Monday for our power rankings.
Speaker 2 (39:04):
Have a great weekend.
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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