Hoops Tonight - NBA Contender Rankings w/ Kevin O'Connor: Thunder & Nuggets BEST, sneaky Celtics, Lakers in top 10

Jason is joined by Yahoo! NBA analyst Kevin O'Connor to break down contender rankings for the 2026 NBA title. They discuss the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets still being at the top, why James Harden and the Cleveland Cavaliers are rising, why they'll never count out Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves, how high up the Boston Celtics should be now and if Jayson Tatum returns, whether Luka Doncic and the Los Angeles Lakers can crack the top 10, why Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets have fallen since the last rankings, Jalen Brunson's New York Knicks, Victor Wembanyama's San Antonio Spurs, and more.

All lines presented by Hard Rock Bet. 

#Volume

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.

Speaker 2 (00:15):
All right, well, good to hoops tonight here at the volume.
Happy Thursday, everybody, hopeful of you guys are having an
incredible week. I'm very, very excited for today's show. You
guys all know Kevin O'Connor, friend of mine. I've been
on his show several times. I think he's been on
our show once before this, but we've never done this
specific format before. As you guys know, about once a month,
I like to take a look at our contender tiers,

(00:36):
just a big picture look at how the championship landscape
has shifted around the NBA. Now, to be clear, we're
not married to any of these ideas. We reserve the
right to change our mind at any point between now
and the start of the playoffs. But this is just
a snapshot of how Kevin and I feel about the
landscape of championship contenders at this point. First of all, Kevin,

(00:58):
how are you man? How you feeling today?

Speaker 1 (01:00):
I'm doing excellent. I'm excited for the All Star break,
flying out to LA and yeah, hopefully it's a productive
and fun time and reset the NBA season and come
back and see this tank race and this contending race.
I'm both both ends of the spectrum looking I'm looking
forward to discussing the top end of the NBA today
because a lot of the conversation this week seems to
be about the bottom.

Speaker 2 (01:21):
The shameless tanking too. Yeah, it's crazy, openly like, yeah,
we're doing it. What are you gonna do about it?

Speaker 1 (01:27):
You know?

Speaker 2 (01:28):
But yeah, I'm very excited for the home stretch of
this season. Also in LA is fun too. I've got
actually a lot of buddies who are going I this
is like I have historically taken this as my first,
my last little break before the playoff grind. But it
being in LA this year, there's a lot of people
going out. There should be a fun one, all right.
So we're gonna keep it very simple today. I'm just

(01:49):
gonna literally work down my list. Kevin is just going
to mention whether he agrees or disagrees, and if he disagrees,
he'll say where he has them. We have divided our
contenders into tiers. Tier one pretty self explanatory. These are
teams that should feel great about their chances to win
the title. These are teams that should be sitting in
their locker room feeling like they have a real opportunity

(02:11):
and there is a level of belief that anything short
of them winning the title would be somewhat of a failure.
I have four teams in this tier, starting with number one,
and I'm almost certain we agree here, but I'm curious
to see where you stand. There was a point this
year where I had Oklahoma City in their own tier,
and I think that we've seen enough over the course

(02:31):
of the last few months to show that they have
some flaws. And to be clear, every team in the
NBA has flaws, So I feel like it's important to
mention that we're not just nitpicking strictly Oklahoma City, but
the main flaws that have stuck out to me with them.
They're a little bit creaky with their jump shooting under duress,
so like specific types of shots, so like guarded catch

(02:52):
and shoot threes, like more contested catch and shoot threes.
According to Synergy, they're shooting below thirty percent on guarded
catch and shoot threes this year. We've seen some examples
in their losses where athletic teams that can rush them
a little bit at the three point line, they can
miss a little bit. They're twenty ninth in rebounding since
December thirteenth, although I would argue that that had a
lot to do with Isah Hartenstein being out. Since he's

(03:13):
come back in the last six games. They're eighteenth in rebounding,
which is not as bad. The main one to me
is they're a little light on ball handling and they're
so predicated on dribble penetration that when an AJ Mitchell
is out or when Jalen Williams is out, Shay obviously
the offense falls off without him. They can struggle a

(03:33):
little bit to break defenses down, and that makes me
just a little worried in terms of like Jalen's like
soft tissue issues that he's had, abdominal injuries can be
a little tricky for AJ Mitchell. But overall, this defense
is the most reliable unit in the NBA to me
by far. Shay is encroaching on Jokic for that best

(03:55):
player in the World type of title. I think he's
put some separation between him and Luca and Janis, So overall,
all those flaws that I discussed are more what just
pull them down to the same tier as everybody else.
But they were an easy number one for me still
to this point in the season. How have you felt
about the thunder, Kevin, I.

Speaker 1 (04:12):
Think you're making the right call not putting them in
their own tier. I think that's the main thing. I'm
pretty sure, Like I can't imagine a very strong argument
for anybody else being over Oklahoma City as number one
in contender tiers. But it's just a matter of are
they on their own level, how many teams are on
the same level or not. And I think with your
making the right call there with not their own tier
because of the injuries, the fact that it's just no

(04:35):
team has done it for seven years. It's just the
reality of the situation here. Everybody said Denver was going
to repeat, everybody said Boston was going to repeat. It's
really hard to do, period. It's also hard to do
when you're dealing with injuries. They've had guys out SGA's
out right now. Who knows if they're going to be
healthy in April, in May and have the ability to

(04:56):
get to June, And so I'd have them number one.
I mean, no notes on every thing you said, obviously
all it's all factual. It's just a matter of durability
for this team. But even if they are healthy, the
rest of the West has gotten better, and I think
they definitely they went to a Game seven, and it's
a Denver team last year that's not anywhere as good

(05:16):
as it is this year. And so ultimately, I think
there's other teams that have a chance to defeat Okasee,
whether or not they're healthy, considering some of the flaws
on this team, And I think that's also why it's
a minor acquisition in some ways, because okay See's so deep,
but adding Jared McCain, he's a great shooter, and so
he's just another weapon for Mark Dagnall, one of the

(05:39):
best coaches in the league, to have on his bench
to turn to if it's a series in which JDub
is out or or the team is cold shooting, just
have another shooter out there, another option to add a
different layer to their rotations and the lineups that they
can play out there on the floor if they do
want to go smaller, have a more reliable shooter rather
than the defensive like Cason Wallace or Lou Dort, whoever

(06:02):
it may be. So I just think this team has
so much depth, so much versatility, so much flexibility that
they belong at number one for sure. But I wouldn't
have them on their own on their own tier either.

Speaker 2 (06:12):
Yeah, one hundred percent agree. I think the optionality part
that you're mentioning here is key. Like so, for instance,
like aj Mitchell, one of the things I've really liked
with him is he brings a level of first step
quickness that really nobody else as a ball handler other
than Shay has for Okay, see, like Jalen to me
is so much more of like a momentum driver. He's

(06:32):
like a semi transition. Let me get into your body
and spin off of you or euro off of you.
It's it's not so much like a straight speed attack
as it is a power attack with a guy like Jalen,
So I love that Aj Mitchell brings a very different
kind of dynamic as another a point of attack initiator
for them or the Jared McCain piece. Like you mentioned,

(06:53):
it's just another option, another another card that Mark dagnall
can play in any one of these situations. And I
do think that there's something to be said to about
the adversity they've faced in the middle of the season
with injuries, Like it was fun last night and throughout
the last couple weeks watching different guys step up into
more initiation because of the circumstances, Like Alex Caruso in

(07:15):
his shot creation this year, He's actually been sneaky pretty
good this season. He's run forty pick and rolls and
he's generated forty five points including passes. He's done some
work off the bounce chet those big late ISOs against
Austin Reeves where he got to some good looks, like
those guys are all getting reps on the ball that
I think are super valuable. But I figured we'd be
on the same page. There no surprises. Number two for me,

(07:39):
Denver's tricky because when you start to dig into the metrics,
it's just messy because of all the injuries and even
this recent stretch. I actually, before we get into Denver
as a team, I have a theory about why they've
been struggling since Jokic came back, and I'm curious if
you agree. So my impression is that they got used
to playing a very different style of defense. When Yonis
and Jokic were out or switching, it was more like

(08:01):
a contain and less dependent on rotation like backside rotation
style of defense, whereas with Jokic Andis back in the mix.
They're running a lot more high drop and it's putting
a lot more pressure on their rotations, and I think
it's just going to take them a little while to
adjust back to the way they need to defend with Jokic.
What's been your read on just their kind of recent

(08:22):
struggles since he came back.

Speaker 1 (08:24):
I mean, I think that's spot on. It's a defensive issue.
I mean, they've given up one hundred and twenty in
every game except for the last one against Cleveland when
they gave up one to nineteen. They're clearly struggling on
the defensive end of the floor. And I think ultimately,
I mean, Jokic is such a transformative player. Obviously you're
better with Jokic, that's an obvious statement. But he's also

(08:44):
a transformative player in terms of the way you have
to play stylistically. Both offensively he changes you and defensively
he changes you. And I think for Denver, the lack
of continuity they've had this year, i'd expect they're going
to fix themselves by the end of the season. I'm
not concer learned about them. I wouldn't knock them any
lower than two. We're on the same page. They're having
them second on our Contender Tiears. But ultimately, I think

(09:07):
like it's tough when guys are in and out of
the lineup when you don't when you have Aaron Goran,
then you don't have Aaron Goron, you have Yokic, and
then you find you find a new identity without him.
It's hard to bring guys in and out and back
to the team. And that they've had so many different
starting lineups, so many different rotations, it's it's hard to
manage the fact that they they've been able to win
as much as they have uh so far this season

(09:29):
within without Jokic and within without all those guys, it's
pretty remarkable. So I'm not I'm not overreacting to this stuff.
Tough stretch, They've also faced a lot of tough teams.
Those losses are against ok See, Detroit, New York, and Cleveland,
and they beat Chicago. I mean, those are tough teams
at the tough stretch right after Jokic return. So I'm
not I'm not overreacting at all for a team that's

(09:52):
had as much lack of durability as they have.

Speaker 2 (09:54):
Yeah, you know, I think I think it's just gonna
be like momentum, Like, I think within a week or
two they'll kind of get back in the groove of
how they need to guard with Jokic, and I think
they'll start racking up wins. I don't, I don't think.
I think, yeah, obviously, it doesn't take a rocket scientist
to think that Jokic is going to help them in
the big picture when he returns. But the metrics are tricky,
Like they're twenty fourth in defense this year. They've had
constant injuries, They've been really bad on defense in clutch time.

(10:18):
That happened again against Cleveland yesterday. But they have a
one to twenty four defensive rating this season in clutch
situations that's been twenty ninth in the NBA. I think
that's where you've really felt the loss of Aaron Gordon.
I think Aaron Gordon has been such a pivotal piece
for them to be able to ratchet things up defensively
the way they need to. And if you're looking for
like a specific metric to focus on as a point

(10:39):
of optimism, they've only played five hundred and ten possessions
this year with Nicole Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon
on the floor together. But when they have, they have
a one thirty offensive rating and a one oh six
point five defensive rating, So they've flashed that two way
ceiling that you expect to see those from those guys.
They are the best half court offense in the NBA
by mile, even with Jokic seeing a good chunk of

(11:00):
the season. My main point of optimism with Denver and
why I have them as the number two and the
most likely team to make an upset run against Okaysee
and hoist the trophy is I just think their core
players are better. Like I think this is the best
version of Jamal Murray that we've seen yet in the NBA.
I think this is obviously the Gordon injuries make it tricky,

(11:20):
but when you factor in the amount of polish he's
added in the last couple of years as a catch
and shoot player and his ability to work out of
the mid post and out of the low post, Like,
I think Gordon when healthy is better than he's been
in recent years. Maybe not the same peak defensively, but
just like.

Speaker 1 (11:35):
He was an All Star Jason, I thought he was
an All Star before he got hurt.

Speaker 2 (11:38):
Yeah, that's how good he was. Yeah, he was awesome.
And then obviously Jokich is Jokic, and then the role
player depth is better than ever. Like just I think
it's the best combination of Denver's core plus Denver's depth
than they've had in this era. And so that for
me is the main point of optimism. Do you have
anything to add there before we move on or it
sounds like you have him met too?

Speaker 1 (11:58):
Anyway, I mean I have him at two and I
think Jamal Murray, as you said, spot on, the best
he's ever been, and Aaron Gordon prior to the injury
was the best he's ever been as well. And so Denver,
I mean, for all the talk all the over the years, well,
Jokich has never had an all star teammate, Well this
year he's got He's got one literally and Jamal Murray,
and he has another that could have been and Aaron

(12:19):
Gordon if he hadn't gotten hurt. So this is the deepest, strongest,
most flexible use the word optionality in regards to Oka. See, well,
Denver's got a lot of that too, and so I
put them right next to Oka. See.

Speaker 2 (12:30):
So one last follow up with Denver before we move on.
So I had this one thought that arose.

Speaker 3 (12:35):
For me.

Speaker 2 (12:37):
Specifically after Okac just smashed the Nuggets in Denver. Now,
obviously it was one of Jokic's first games back, so
no one's going to take that as just like the
end all be all in this discussion. But one of
the things that stood out to me this year is
the teams that have caused Oklahoma City the most problems
and their losses have been teams that have been super
athletic on the perimeter and have rim protection. Do you

(12:58):
have any concern specific stylistically in terms of the matchup
with Denver just because of their inability to guard some
of the way Okac likes to attack.

Speaker 1 (13:08):
Yeah, for sure, no doubt about it. I mean, look,
I think Jokich in a series against okay See is
just gonna have to be a superhero. Jamal Murray and
those guys obviously they need to have durability, but no doubt,
matchup wise, it's tough for anybody to match up against
the thunder when you have that many guys that can

(13:29):
create off the dribble, that many guys who can defend
with versatility outside. I think for the Denver Nuggets, it
comes down to sometimes just this is just the reality
of it. Like you said with Okac earlier, Jason, their
lack of shooting. We saw what Denver did to create
issues for the Thunder and their series last year, playing
a lot of zone, turning the Thunder into a shooting team.

(13:52):
I forget the exact numbers off the top of my head,
but I think oka See in that series when Denver
played zon, she took I think forty five or forty
six of their shots from three. They've turned them into
a shooting team rather than a penetration team. And so
Denver did that by playing a lot of zone last year,
and so ultimately, can you change the way OKAC wants
to play? Denver did that successfully last year. Obviously I

(14:14):
lost the series. Can they do that again? Or maybe
is okay See going to have more counters of that
and make it a little less competitive than it was
this time last time around if they do end up
facing off.

Speaker 2 (14:25):
Yeah, I think the easiest way I would describe what
you're just saying is like, like, I think Denver has
to be a little more gimmicky to get stops against Okac,
whereas there are some teams like Minnesota like San Antonio
that can do it more with their traditional schemes just
because of what they present athletically. And it, just like
you said, it just puts a lot of pressure on Jokich,
puts a lot of pressure on each guy to like

(14:45):
kind of defend above their paygrade, so to speak, in
some specific roles. So this next team, I think is
where we're probably going to disagree. I'm super excited to
tell you guys about our new partnership with Viory. Those
of you guys who are familiar with VIORI have noticed
that I I've been wearing it on the show almost
every day now for several years. Today I am wearing
the Ponto Performance half Zip, one of my favorites from them.

(15:07):
It's straight up the most comfortable hoodie that I've ever worn,
but it's also super versatile. It's something that looks very
nice that I can wear out when I'm running errands
or going to get lunch with my wife. But it's
also like this super stretchy, dry fit fabric that I
can wear when I'm going to play basketball. Here in Colorado,
it's cold as heck, and so sometimes I get up
at seven o'clock in the morning to go play basketball,

(15:28):
and when I'm doing my warm up, I want to
have something on that keeps me warm but that I
can still move around in.

Speaker 3 (15:32):
This works wonderful for that, and that really is Viory
at its core.

Speaker 2 (15:36):
It's super high quality clothing that you can wash a
million times and it's going to hold up super well.
I have items from Viory that I've literally washed like
fifty times and they still look every bit as nice
as when I first bought them years ago.

Speaker 3 (15:48):
And then they're super versatile, high quality.

Speaker 2 (15:51):
Attractive clothing that you can wear out informal settings, but
that you also can use for everyday life in a
way that will serve your needs regardless of the circumstance.
They even have higher end fashion lines, just an incredible
catalog of clothing for you guys to check out. Viory
is an investment in your happiness. For our listeners, they're
offering twenty percent off your first purchase. Get yourself some

(16:14):
of the most comfortable and versatile clothing on the planet
at Yory dot com slash hoops. That's Vuo Rii dot
com slash hoops. Exclusions apply. Visit the website for full
terms and conditions. Not only will you receive twenty percent
off your first purchase, but enjoy free shipping on any
US orders over seventy five dollars in free returns. Go

(16:36):
to viory dot com slash hoops and discover the versatility
of Yory clothing. Exclusions apply. Visit the website for full
terms and conditions. I don't know where you have this team,
so I'm really excited to see what you think. But
I am buying so much Cleveland Cavalier stock right now.
I have them as I think there was this kind

(16:57):
of like cluster at the top of the East between Detroit,
New York, Boston, Cleveland. You could maybe consider Toronto they're
kind of hanging on, but mainly those four teams. And
I was going back and forth between that group all
season long, and I kind of was leaning towards New
York just because of their combination of experience, and then
I just thought that they had kind of figured some

(17:17):
things out to improve specific weaknesses they had in previous years.
But to me, the combination bringing Ellison Schroeder just two
really good small guard defenders, which I think is going
to be a huge value. Add it against the conference
that has a Tyrese Maxey and a VJ. Edgecomb that
has you know, a Jalen Brunson and Aduce McBride if
you can get healthy from his injury, that has an

(17:38):
Emmanual Quickly and a Jamal Shed that has a Peyton
Pritchard and a Derek White. Like having those guys can
struggle against bigger, more physical wings, but they are excellent
defensive options to have against small, quick guards, and so
they've got a much better set of options for that
specific type of matchup. And I just think overall, there's
this combination that Cleveland has of shot creation between James

(18:00):
Harden and Donovan Mitchell, high level screen and roll threats
between Evan Mobley and Jared Allen, awesome spot up shooting.
Like I'm watching that lineup last night against Denver, and
I'm like, you're trying to guard Harden Mitchell ball screens
with Jared Allen with Jalen Tyson and Sam Merrill spotting
up two guys that are going to hit over fifty
percent of their unguarded catch and shoot three, So like,

(18:21):
you literally can't leave those dudes open, And like every
time Jalen Tyson did get open last night he'd knocked
it down. Like there was this play where James Harden
drives down the middle and he kicks it out to
Jalen Tyson at the top of the key, and as
Harden's throwing the pass, Donovan Mitchell's in the corner going
like this because he just knows it's going in. Because
that's the level of shooting they have. So when I
look at their combination again of shot creation, screen and

(18:43):
roll threats, off ball shooting, perimeter defenders, and rim protection,
I think they might be the most complete team in
the Eastern Conference going into this playoff. Front they're not perfect.
I am still concerned about their front court getting pushed
around in certain types of matchups, maybe like a Mitchell
Robinson or Jalen during giving them a lot of problems

(19:03):
as we've seen before in the past. But I just
think in amongst a group of flawed teams, they're the
team I believe in the most. How do you feel
about Cleveland at this point?

Speaker 1 (19:13):
So I picked Cleveland to go to the finals before
the season, and then I moved off of them during
the season. I'm kind of back on after the deadline acquisitions.
Like you said, ke Ellis Dennis Shrudter upgrading from Darius
Garland to James Harden, and when they're going from a
guy in Garland who didn't play, couldn't trust them to play,

(19:33):
who couldn't stay healthy, to a player who is as
durable as he as he has ever been, still in
his mid thirties, in James Harden, who when they're both healthy,
is still a better player. Harden's a better player, he's
a better creator, a better playmaker. He's bigger, he's a
more versatile threat for this team. He helps alleviate the
load off of Mitchell, and you add Keon Allis to

(19:53):
that as well as a defensive presence, and Dennis Shruter
is another ballhandler, changes the complexion of that team. And
ultimately I'm kind of back on for the same reasons
as you, Jason, but I'm not sure about having them. Third,
do you have you haven't been in the same tier, they're.

Speaker 3 (20:10):
The same group.

Speaker 2 (20:11):
There's a Eastern Conference element to this. I think the
Eastern Conference is a slightly easier I shouldn't say slightly, a.

Speaker 3 (20:18):
Substantial it's easier.

Speaker 2 (20:20):
It's not an easy path, but it is a substantially
like easier pathway to get through, So I think that's easy.

Speaker 3 (20:26):
That's okay, it's easier exactly.

Speaker 2 (20:29):
So that to me was the like, you have to
have an Eastern Conference team in the top tier in
my opinion, just simply because the conference is more winnable,
If that makes sense.

Speaker 1 (20:37):
I think that's fair. I'd have them three as well,
but I have them a tick below. So in the
top tier only two teams. Okay, see in Denver only. Okay,
see in Denver and Cleveland. I think i'd have three
as well. I'd put them ahead of the Nicks. I
think they're a more complete team. I'd put them ahead
of Boston for now because Boston doesn't have Tatum yet,
but they will eventually, so Boston should move up, and

(20:58):
I put them ahead of Detroit. I think a lot
of Pistons fans, if they're listening to this, are probably
pissed off. They're like, really, we're number one in the
East and you're putting Cleveland ahead of us. I just
think Cleveland has a more complete team. They have more
creation from different places. And James Harden rightfully so people

(21:19):
talk about him as like a choker that it's the
honest truth. He has had a lot of choke jobs,
including last year in Game seven against Denver when he
had a seven point stinker, but he also had a
brilliant Game six. He also kept them in it in
Game one with another outstanding game with clutch shots down
the stretch and in overtime. He has some great highs

(21:39):
in recent years, not just in his prime when the
Rockets were going toe to toe against the Warriors, but
in recent years, as he's been in the twilight of
his career, and so he's an upgrade over Garland. I
thought Mitchell, I'm paraphrasing what he said, summed it up
very well when he said, this is a guy who's
been in the playoffs, who's been in a finals, who's
been in these big moments. And it's true hard On

(22:00):
has choked, but he's also had some unbelievable moments in
the playoffs against great defenses. And so this team upgraded
at the deadline. They were not complacent until I would
have them number one in the East like you, and
third like you, but not in the same tier as
those other teams. But I get your reasoning.

Speaker 2 (22:16):
So I think one of the things with Harden that
gets glossed over is, you know, as a number two,
there's a certain expectation for inconsistency. Like Jay Dubb had
a forty point game in the finals. He had lots
of bad playoff games last year, you know, like Jamal
Murray has. You know, with Jokich, Jokich, you expect a
certain thing every single night. Jamal Murray, it's like one
night he might go for twenty nine, one night he

(22:37):
might go for seventeen. Like when you're dealing with the
number two, you kind of expect a certain amount of
volatility from that type of player. I think the bigger
issue in recent years is he's been a number two
behind two number ones that weren't up to the task.
Joel Embiid obviously falls apart consistently in the postseason. I
thought last year Kawhi Leonard, outside of Game two against Denver,
looked like a second tier superstar. He didn't look like

(22:59):
a guy that was able to reach the level of
the very best players in the league. And you know,
Donovan Mitchell is necessarily one of those guys either, But
in recent years he's been one of the most dependable,
like thirty point per game, sixty percent for shooting playoff
guys in the entire NBA, and so I feel like
there's a certain level of reliability with that partnership that

(23:21):
wasn't necessarily there with a Kawhi who would constantly get
hurt and an MBI who would constantly get hurt. I
think this is a a I think there's a lot
of pressure on James Harden this year, but I think
this is a situation that's set up really well for him.

Speaker 1 (23:33):
I'm with you, Jason. I mean, it's alleviate the load
on him, and he doesn't need to be twenty five
points per game like he was for the Clippers.

Speaker 2 (23:41):
Exactly exactly, And that's why I'm not unaware of Harden's issues.
But I've also, like you, noticed that he's had really
big playoff moments in recent years, and he has a
certain limitation as a number two, but he's better than
Darius Garland. And then also there's one other piece of
it too, like he is just so much better as
a one on one defender than Darius. And he made
a couple of late rotations against Denver yesterday, one where

(24:02):
he contested Tim Hardaway Junior on a slip that I
thought was a good on time rotation. He just Tim
Hardaway hit a tough shot, and then he first forced
a turnover on Yokich where he caught him with his
back turned and made a rotation right to his left shoulder,
got there in time and got set so that when
Jokic tried to pivot, he just ran right into Harden
and turned it over. And I was sitting there thinking, like,
with how much better he is as a one on
one defender than Garland. If he can just be attentive

(24:24):
within the scheme and be in the right spot, he
will be a functional defender in this group. I think
they're going to have a hard time getting stops until
Evin Mobley gets back because they're playing all these like
shooting focused groups. But with Mobley and Allen out there,
and with their ability to cycle in Keon Ellis and
different types of perimeter defenders, I think they're going to
be able to get a lot of stops. So Minnesota,

(24:45):
this is the last team I have in my top tier,
and this is probably the team that I am highest
on relative to consensus, But I just can't get off
these this particular team, And one of the main reasons
why is, first of all, they are one of the
most wild inconsistent effort and energy teams in the league.
And just talk to any Timberwolves fan about this, like

(25:05):
they will say, we just have entire games, long stretches
of games where we just are bsing and going through
the motions. And yet in spite of that, they have
insanely strong metrics top ten in offense, top ten in defense,
top ten and rebounding. I think they have one of
the best fastballs in the league. Like when you put
it like their best punch, when it's like Gobert protecting

(25:27):
the hell out of the rim, and all their athletes
on the perimeter, just hounding and guarding, and the combination
of big, physical shot creators they have between Aunt and
Julius and you got to include nas read in this conversation.
Jaden McDaniels has made substantial improvements offensively. I love the
Io de Sunmu addition too. You had a big night
last night. As I look at Minnesota, to me, their

(25:50):
fastball is so damn fast that they have the potential
to be literally every single team in the league. I
think they would go into any matchup and feel like
they have a real shot to win. They've provided real
problems to Oklahoma City this year just because their combination
of big shot creators and shooting. It's big cut shot
creators in shooting, but what they can do ratcheting up
their athleticism on defense. I'm just such a big believer

(26:13):
in their fastball that I have them in my top tier.
Where do you have Minnesota?

Speaker 1 (26:18):
I wouldn't put him in my top tier, but I
think we're pretty close to the same page. I mean,
as you said about with Wolf's fans right now, I
had Dane Moore great, great coverage covering the Minnesota to Wolves.
He's outstanding. I had him on my pot on Monday
and Dane and I got into the energy issues with Minnesota,
and this was ahead of that. When you're referencing with
against the Atlanta Hawks, when they assuming went off on

(26:40):
the bench and showed why they went out and got him,
the team looked better. Obviously Atlanta stinks, but the fact,
the fact, the fact, I mean, look, it's so nice
to see the team put in better effort. But with
Julius Randall and Anthony Edwards right now in the middle
of the season, the team is just not putting in
the consistent effort that you would hope for. But if

(27:02):
you're talking about championship contending teams, I think you're hitting
the nail on the head, Jason, when it comes to
this team's fastball on what their upside is. I would
not expect that Anthony Edwards and Julius Randall are going
to be giving such piss poor effort in the postseason
and the way they are in the middle of February.

(27:22):
I just I have a hard time imagining that now
with Randall. There's a chance of that because Randall is
on and off and you don't know what you're gonna
get from him sometimes. And that's one of the things
Dane talked about with me on my podcast, where you
know Julius randalld has talked about it openly, how he's moody,

(27:43):
how like he's talked about mental health. He's talked about
going to a therapist and how to deal with that,
and YadA, YadA. The fact is is that when he's out,
it's hard to get him back. And so Julius Randall
is such a big piece of the Wolves. He's such
a single magnificant responsible role for how they operate offensively

(28:03):
as the second ball handler behind Ant, as a creator
on that team, defensively his role as well that when
he's off, it's a big piece of the puzzle that's removed.
Chris Finch put a lot of responsibility on Julius Randall
in part to engage him and keep him on as
much as possible, and Julius Randall has been an All

(28:26):
NBA player in his career. I've been at Randall critics
since he was at Kentucky before the draft. I've never
been a big fan of Julius Randall, but there's no
denying what he's capable at at his best, and it's
just hard for me to bet on him to be
on in April and in May and then maybe in
June for three straight months. That just doesn't happen with

(28:47):
Julius Randall ever. It never has for over a decade now.
And I think they can still win in spite of him,
but I think they need to win a championship with
Randall on, and that's a hard beat to make. I
have a lot of concerns there and it won't surprise
me if Minnesota feels like they're checking every single box

(29:07):
this year. They have their room protection and go bear,
they have wing versatility, they have a superstar and aunt.
They have shooting, they have defensive oriented lineups, even guys
like Jalen Clark coming off the bench. Jalen Clark's really good, Jason,
He's a really good, versatile defensive player who can do
a lot for you at the Julius Randall box, I
have a hard time feeling heavy level of level of

(29:28):
confidence in so I I don't know if I put
him ahead of some of these teams in the East,
like Boston with Tatum. I don't know if I put
him ahead of teams in the West like San Antonio
with the Wemby factor. But I have them in the
same range. I have them probably four or five on
my board, just because of, as you said, the fastball.

(29:51):
When they're at their best, it's hard not to believe
in this team. But that just has a lot to
do with Julius Randall, wh I don't have a lot
of trust.

Speaker 2 (29:58):
In, even just in that Thunder series last year, it
was so like all or nothing with Julius, Like he
would just have these absolutely abysmal games and they'd go
for twenty five and another night, and yeah, I'm with
you on that. I think the last piece of optimism
I'll throw here for Wolves fans, is I think of
all the teams in the West, but other than maybe

(30:20):
San Antonio, your team that feels really good about your
shots against Denver and Okac. Obviously, you've beat Denver in
a series before. You have the ability to throw these
two big lineups out that can cause problems for Jokich
and forced turnovers. You've shown the ability to ratchet things
up on Jamal Murray and hold him scoreless for long
stretches in a playoff series before, so you have that
piece of optimism. Specifically the Okac matchup I've always talked

(30:42):
about with Oka. See you know we talked earlier the
defensive matchup. Having rim protection and athletes on the perimeter
is a huge part of guarding Okac. But the second
piece of it on the offensive end is like we
even saw it last night with Lebron, Like there was
a stretch where Lebron looked unguardable for Okac, simply because
if you have big shot creators that can pass, then
you can pass through their defense and get these high

(31:03):
quality three point shots. Now, the Lakers if nobody can shoot,
but Minnesota has tons of dudes who can shoot and
so they have that combination. Like I remember in the
win that they got, not the one where Okaysee was
badly injured, but the one when they had all their
guys in that game, I remember down the stretch it
wasn't just ant in his ability to get to his
spots against Cason Wallace. It was nas Reed throwing a

(31:23):
quick post up of Jadub and hitting a little lefty
hook off the glass. It was Julius Randall drawing multiple
defenders on a drive into the lane that created an
offensive rebound opportunity for nas Reed. Like, they just have
this big, skilled set of offensive players that I think
can cause Okac problems. So if you're Minnesota, you like
your ability to match up against the best teams in
the league. And that's a big part of why I

(31:45):
have them so high number five. I've san Antonio. There's
lots of really strong metrics for them too. Their crunch
time metrics have been insane their offense. For all to
talk about their offense, and I'm going to talk about
their offense quite a bit, they're elite on offense. In
crunch time, they grab forty percent of their own misses
and crunch time, so they're an excellent offensive rebounding team.

(32:08):
We've seen Wemby just like Superman himself, to huge offensive
rebounds late in games. They're really strong on the margins.
They're top five and opponent points off of turnovers. They're
top five in opponent second chance points, their top five
in opponent fast break points. They protect the paint well.
I actually think they're much more of like a smash
mouth team than anything else. They physically overwhelm teams. They

(32:29):
can guard on the perimeter. They rebound, they attack the
basket recklessly, they get back in transition, they take care
of the basketball. They're just like this super physical athletic
team at their core. My main reason for keeping them
off the top tier is one single idea. Against elite
defenses that have weeks to game plan, I think we're

(32:51):
going to see a series of defensive adjustments, one either
going under against their guards, specifically referencing like Steph Castle,
Dylan Harper riding with Keldon Johnson in this a little bit,
but going under against them and or putting bigs on
them and basically daring them to shoot. And then we've
seen this happen before. I think Julius Randall had a
really good example in one of their wins against against

(33:13):
San Antonio, where you just get a big forward and
just get physical up underneath Wenby and push him up
off of his spots, and it kind of can turn
him into a really difficult jump shooter in those situations. Now,
the Spurs have a counter for this, and that's the
Deer and Fox pick and roll, and it's probably their
safest and most playoff resilient play type that they can
go to. It's just Fox Wemby pick and roll. But

(33:35):
Fox is just not as good as some of the
other offensive players who go against in the West, and
so I'm a little worried about their offense kind of
running into these cold stretches that stem from young, flawed
players that still need some time to develop. But I
can't write them off just because of that idea, because

(33:55):
there's also the chance that Wenby just goes and is
a wrecking ball and just kills every buddy and and
all of a sudden, I'm feeling like an absolute idiot,
But I just think I have enough question marks about
their offense that it kept them off the top tier
for me, and I have them at number five.

Speaker 1 (34:10):
I would I'd also have a fifth, but I would
have them a tier below Cleveland and Minnesota. So I'm
on my third tier. Now I have them on my
third tier. I hate the fact that we have the
same order, but like the list is spot on, it's
just the hot of truth. I mean, I think I

(34:31):
think with Minnesota I have them ahead of San Antonio
because of the experience factor too. That that's one thing
we didn't mention. Yeah, and that's part of it. The
experienced factor is something to consider and San Antonio just
hasn't been on that stage. And the point you made,
Jason about the shooting aspect with the Spurs, it was

(34:55):
my concern with them taking Dylan Harper in the drafts.
It still is my concern now that do they have
too many con Yes, I would have traded down a
spot and taken Con or tried to trade down a spot.
I mean, I think I would have taken Con straight
up at number two over Dylan Harper. Can you imagine
this team with conk Nipple, oh, instead of Dylan Harper

(35:16):
right now? I mean, Dylan Harper might Dylan Harper might
end up the better player long term. I'm not disputing that.
I'm not arguing that, but Conk Nipple is by far
the better player today, and I just can't imagine how
the complexion of this Spurs team would look if they
had him shooting and spacing and secondary handling and instead
of Dylan Harper right now. But I think that the
point you're hitting on is why I do have some

(35:37):
concerns offensively. They're crushing offensively right now and clutch time,
as you said, but come playoff time, when teams are
making adjustments and they're game planning and making these little
micro adjustments in every single game at halftime, between third
quarters and all that that they don't do. Now, what
happens when Dearon Fox is having a cold shooting stretch.

(35:58):
What happens when Dylan Harper isn't effectively spacing from outside
and Stefan Castle doesn't having forty point triple doubles these
guys like, these guys are subpar shooters, all three of them, Fox,
Castle and Harper, and I just I have concerns about
what it's gonna look like against elite defenses in a
seven game series. And I think that's one of the

(36:21):
reasons why the point you hit on about their offensive
rebounding habits changing. In clutch time, they rebound thirty percent
of their missus for the full duration of a game.
Middle of the pack, they're up over forty percent in
clutch time. They change the way they play late in games.
They might have to change the way they play for
an entire playoff series when it comes to that, those
real serious defensive adjustments are being made. And I think

(36:45):
san Antonio belongs at five. I have too much respect
for Wenby and what those guys are crepable of doing.
They do have a lot of ball handlers, a lot
of creation. They belong in the contender category. But there's
a chance we also look back at having them fifth
and we're like, that is too soon. Soon. They should
have been behind some of these other teams. And that's
why I put him on a tier below those other
other groups rather than rather than next to Minnesota, Mexic Cleveland,

(37:09):
even though we have the same order, we have different
groupings there.

Speaker 2 (37:13):
Very simply, you just don't see a team that has
no playoff experiences run in and then get everybody. That's
just that's just how it goes. Like there's the pain
and suffering of loss. Like I think Shae is a
better player than Luca. Now, I thought Luca outplayed him
in that second round series. He kept burning him for
helping off of PJ. Washington in the corner. I thought,
like I thought that was a valuable piece of experience

(37:34):
for Shae, Like Anthony Edwards got embarrassed by Luca and
then got embarrassed by Shay and back to back Western
Conference Finals series where he was badly outplayed by both
of them, Like that is part of the motivation that
led to Ant becoming this sixty two percent true shooting,
thirty point per game absolute monster at age twenty four. Right,

(37:56):
Like I think Wenby, just like every other young star,
has to go through some of these battles and get
humiliated a little bit and reminded that there's levels to this,
that there's another another additional layer that he needs to
add to his game or to his workout regimen or
whatever it might be. And I just think, and because
we're gonna get into this with Detroit here in a second,

(38:17):
it's not a lack of respect or belief in these teams.
Like I think you and I both think san Antonio
is going to be a perennial top tier contender, Like
it's going to be there's gonna be probably a five
year stretch consecutively where we both have them in our
top tiers. Like that's how much we believe in the
Victor Webbin Yama, Steph Castle, Dearn Fox Corps. It's more

(38:38):
just the timeline and that there's a process here that
most of these teams need to follow, and similarly with Detroit.
Today's show is brought to you by presenting sponsor hard
Rock Bet, the official sportsbook partner of the Miami Heat
in the Orlando Magic. Think you know Ball. Put your
hoops knowledge to the test on hard Rock Bet. Between
the NBA and college every night is a chance to

(38:58):
make a splash and win. And if you want to
score a major bucket, shoot your shot at the same
game parlay. Stack your picks on hard Rock Bet and
see your odds grow. But if you misstip off, don't worry.
Hard Rock Bet lets you live bet all game long,
from the first bucket to the final buzzer, so you're
never too late to find a winner or grab that
player that you had circled. If you haven't signed up
with hard Rock Bet yet, there's never been a better

(39:19):
time new sign ups can double their winnings on their
first ten bets with the max fifty dollars. That's right,
if you would have won one hundred bucks on your bet,
make that two hundred plus. Hard Rock Bet offers new
promos every single day, so whenever you're listening, just open.

Speaker 3 (39:33):
Up the app and check out what you've got.

Speaker 2 (39:35):
Any day of the week, download the hard Rock Bet
app and make your first deposit today. Payble and bonus
bets not a cash offer offered by the Seminal Tribe
of Florida. In Florida, offered by Seminal hard Rock Digital LLC.
In all other states. Must be twenty one plus and
physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee,
or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about

(39:57):
gambling in Florida, call one eight three three play wise.
In Indiana, if you were someone you know has a
gambling problem and wants help, call one eight hundred and
nine with it gambling problem called one eight hundred Gambler
in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia.
I'd argue they've been the most impressive team in the

(40:18):
league this year, Like it goes beyond even just the record.
Every other team in the league has at least seven
losses against teams in the top ten. In point differential,
the Pistons are ten and four. That's far and away
the best win They have a seventy one percent win
percentage against teams in the top ten and win in
point differential. Houston is in second place at fifty eight percent,
so this is a thirteen percent gap there. They have

(40:39):
insane margin domination, like they are a smash mouth basketball team.
They outscore teams in points off of turnovers by five
point six points per game, by two points per game
and second chance points, by five points per game, in
fast break points, and by fourteen points per game in
points in the paint. They outscored Charlotte last night sixty
to twenty six in the pay this This is a mauling,

(41:02):
physical team that I'm a huge believer in in the
big picture, but the twentieth and half court offense, if
they run into any team that can keep keep things
competitive on the margins, they're in some serious trouble. And
so again, big believer in Detroit, but I personally would
be really surprised if they ended up hoisting the trophy

(41:23):
this year.

Speaker 1 (41:24):
Twenty eighth and three point attempts for a game, twenty
second and three point percentage they add Kevin Hurd or
Kevin Hurd is not changing anything. It's just the reality
it might not even play in the playoffs. I'd have
Boston here, I head of Detroit, and I know Pistons
fans are probably disrespected by that, and rightfully sorry, you're
at the top of the East. I just think with

(41:46):
Boston they are that team Jason that you said can
that can match them on the margins and then also
crush them in the half court when Jason Tatum returns.
Boston has been very competitive in their games against Detroit
this year despite not having Jason Tatum. I think when
Jason Tatum returns, if he's eighty percent of his former
self or eighty five percent or seventy seven percent or

(42:08):
ninety percent, whatever it is, that puts them as perhaps
the best team in the East behind Cleveland. But I
definitely put them ahead of Detroit and New York as
that team right now. That would be sixth on the rankings,
and that could move up for sure quite easily.

Speaker 2 (42:25):
So let's actually move to Boston for just a second.
I have all these teams in the same tier, so
we'll continue to work through the numbers. But I'm curious
since you mentioned Boston. I've Boston in the same tier,
but I have them at nine, So that doesn't mean
that there's some massive separation. It just means that in
this tier I have them lower. My main thing, because
I think I think what Boston has done this year
has been incredibly impressive on so many different levels. I

(42:46):
think it's a testament to Joe Missoula and the system
that he's implemented in the level of buy in that
he's gotten over the last several years that has led
to through continuity and through that buy in, like them
having a one to twelve on the offensive rating this
year without Jason Tatum, without chrisops porzingis, without Al Horford,
without Drew Holliday, I think is a remarkable accomplishment.

Speaker 3 (43:08):
Crazy, it's a remarkable accomplishment. It's just the level of
top ten defense.

Speaker 1 (43:13):
Jason, Yeah, top ten defensive rating two without those guys,
it's one of the best defenders in the league.

Speaker 3 (43:19):
Yeah, I think, what do I do against.

Speaker 1 (43:22):
Katie with Ron Harper Junior and Baylor Shireman starting that game?
Are you kidding me?

Speaker 2 (43:28):
They have been deep in their rotation most of the
season too. It has been it has been so impressive.
I just think organizationally, this year has been just like
a big giant advertisement for why the Boston Celtics can
sustain success the way that they have over the last
several decades. And I think, you know, the main reason
why I have them in the second tier, why I

(43:48):
have them a little lower, is just the question marks.
Like obviously, if Jason Tatum comes back and he's able
to be most of what Jason Tatum is, he helps
in so many different ways, including the there's a defensive
rebounding piece that I think he helps with a lot.
There's a defending with their centers piece. So for instance,
like I really like the Vusovich edition is one that
I talked about actually before the deadline, mainly centering around

(44:10):
the idea of affordability. He just was inexpensive and he
gives him a very different look than Kada. I love
that Missoula has been starting Kida and bringing Vusovich off
the bench. But at the same time, like, you know,
you have a certain type of matchup. Oh, you know,
in this particular game against Miami, they're doing a ton
of switching. Let's have Vusovich close the game. He's a
better look for us because he can do damage on
the offensive glass, and he can post up a little

(44:32):
bit and all that kind of stuff. Right, Like, I
love that dynamic, but Vucha struggled defensively since coming to Boston.
You know who's like the antidote for that, Jason Tatum
because he can guard opposing centers and switch ball screens
and you can tuck Vusvitch away on a non shoot
or somewhere elsewhere on the floor. And so like, I'm
a big believer that this could all come together into

(44:54):
a bona fide championship run. I just think between the
Tatum like just who knows what's going to happen with
his injury and some of the implementation of Usevich and
some of the question marks around in that front court,
it just was a little to question mark heavy for
me to have them any higher. But I do believe
in the upside.

Speaker 1 (45:13):
I think that's totally fair. I mean, in a way
talking about Boston reminds me of talking about Minnesota for
different reasons. When you talking about the ifs. I think
their fastball is so fast, it is so significant, so
hard to stop. It's the same reason why there's a
lot of confidence in Boston being a repeat team, because
of what they're capable of doing when they're on. And
we'll see if they end up getting Tatum back, and

(45:35):
if Tatum comes back, what he looks like, and I
believe he will come back. I don't see any reason
to believe he won't. All signs are pointing towards him returning,
and Boston's roster, even without him, has looked awesome this year.
Jalen Brown, the leap he's taken, the amount of flexibility
they have, not just sometimes it's Jordan Wall, sometimes it's
Baylor Shyerman, the guys off their bench, Joe Mazzuola's got

(45:58):
a lot of options, and they believe in him, believe
in that style of play. And the fact that that
game against Houston will stick in my mind, the fact
they went in there without all about two of their
starters Cada and White, and beat them up. I just
think there's a testament to the character of that team
and the level of buying together that guys who don't

(46:18):
play went out there and were ready, and the guys
who that are the typical starters, the typical rotation guys
play with that same attitude and intensity. Boston's a real
threatut they gets hit him back.

Speaker 3 (46:29):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (46:30):
I think that just the juxtaposition of them in Indiana
and now Indiana's had more injury issues, but you know,
they've still had, you know, some of their core guys
around it. They've been borderline uncompetitive for for the majority
of the season. I just think I just think seeing
the difference between those two franchises, Like if you're a
Celtics fan, I was talking to Celtics fans over the summer, like, hey,
like the best you could hope for this year is
like Jalen Brown looks good and you find two rotation

(46:53):
players out of like discounted margin type type hits, you know,
and you got you got that, and you got all
the wins.

Speaker 3 (47:01):
I think that's the crazy thing.

Speaker 2 (47:02):
Like you find Jordan Walsh and he looks like a
legitimate rotation piece. Jalen Brown does take the leap to
becoming a bona fide all NBA level talent and you
are like firmly in the mix for championship contention. Like,
just what an unbelievable season for Celtics fans. So you
have Boston at six, I have Detroit at six. Moving

(47:23):
on to number seven, I have Houston. And you know,
I had Houston as a top tier contender most of
the season until this point, and I ended up dropping
them down for.

Speaker 3 (47:34):
A variety of reasons.

Speaker 2 (47:36):
They have really strong metrics like their top six in
offense top six and defense top six and rebounding. I
think that that is a strong indicator second best win
percentage in the league versus teams that are in the
top ten point differential. We talked about that earlier. With Detroit,
the clutch stuff is what scares everybody off. They're thirteen
and fourteen in clutch games, their bottom ten in clutch
offense and defense. The main reason I dropped them down

(47:58):
from that tier is a combination of that, which I
think is more of like an Amend Thompson's spacing kind
of thing and a shannguon defense thing, which we'll talk
about in the second. But I think the loss of
Steven Adams removes a real dimension from the team like
they in fourteen hundred and forty six possessions this year
with Steven Adams on the floor, they were outscoring teams
by thirteen points per one hundred possessions. Is it the

(48:18):
look they would have closed every game with?

Speaker 1 (48:20):
No?

Speaker 2 (48:20):
Would there have been serieses and teams that could have
played Steve Adams off the floor? Yes, but it was
a look, a dimension to the team that no longer
exists now. And then when I look at like, you know,
the Amen Thompsons facing issue, which I want to get
into it a little bit here in a minute, the
Reed Shepherd thing, where like if he's not hitting threes,
the defensive liability stuff rises to the surface. And then
just in general they're super reliant on KD offensively. It

(48:43):
just kind of amounted to just one too many question
marks for me to keep them in the top tiers.
So before we talk about the late game offense and
that kind of thing, just big picture, how you're feeling
about Houston at this point.

Speaker 1 (48:56):
I have Huston lower than you do. I think I
have them last. I have them tent tenth on my
on my list. Personally, I just have a little belief
in this team. I had a good amount of belief
during the year. I thought, you know, obviously the questions
Fred van Vliet gets hurt. I'm not a Fred van

(49:17):
Vleek guy, to be fair, I'm a Red Shepherd guy.
I'm an Amen Thompson guy. But those players are still young,
They're still flawed. Amen Thompson's inability to shoot the ball
as an issue for this team, and it will be
an issue in the playoffs. Read Shepherd. I don't think
Udoka trusts Read Shepherd. I don't think he's empowered him
in the ways that I would have hoped for with
his shooting ability and his creation ability as a connective piece.

(49:40):
I also questioned the coaching here with Udoka. I don't
I don't like the fact that he called out Sheng
Gouin's defense publicly, even though it's true. I just I
just don't like the way this half court offense is structured.
And that's in part his fault. It's in part the
roster construction made by the front office. And I also
just don't like the development of these young guys. Yeah,

(50:01):
you don't have Fred van Vliet, Okay, you have Reed Shepherd,
who was taken with the third pick in the draft,
invest in that guy early on in the season, don't
play him for ten minutes behind Aaron Holiday on some nights.
It just doesn't make any sense to me. And ultimately
the shen Gun aspect, even though Udoka I don't love
him calling it out publicly saying, you know, he was
asked about Shennggun's defense being attacked and he's like, it's

(50:24):
been the case since I've been here. WHOA, Okay, the
fact is he's not wrong. Shen Gun is you know, statistically,
I believe the second worst isolation defender in the NBA
this season. Teams are going to attack him relentlessly come
postseason time. I believe that's going to be a problem
for them. And as you said, Jason, not having Steven Adams,

(50:46):
how important was that to them last year when that's
all they had Even this year, that two big lineup,
the ability just to pumme over the offensive boards and
the size that presented it on defense. Now you don't
have that, that's not an option for you more. And
I just have a little belief in this team. I
still think they're a contender, but I'd put them at
the bottom of my list of potential contenders right now.

Speaker 2 (51:09):
Yeah, you know, the stuff with Shanegoon on defense I
think is fascinating because I don't he's not a stiff
like he's He's a good athlete for the center position.
He should be better than he is, And so part
of me wonders if this is one of those like
bullying Works situations where Katie and Udoka are like, let

(51:31):
me just see if we can humiliate this guy into
getting him to play some defense. And I think ultimately,
if there's a version of Houston that wins the title,
I think it involves Shangun being a good defender, and
so that's a bridge that he's going to have to
cross at some point in his career. The late game offense.
You know, I remember thinking about this a lot, this
specific spacing concept in the series a few years ago

(51:52):
when the Knicks upset the Calves, and the specific dynamic
that killed the Calves in that series was Jared Allen
and the Dunker's with Evan Mobley slipping out of screens
with Mitchell in Garland and creating these two on ones
with Mobley and Allen and with with Mitchell Robinson as
the as the drop coverage bigger I think he was

(52:14):
more functioning as a low man in these sequences because
kat was going.

Speaker 3 (52:17):
Up to the level.

Speaker 2 (52:19):
And essentially actually that was pre Cat, but Mitchell was
just on the back line and it would just create
these two on ones with Evan and Jared and Mitchell
and Evan, just like Mitchell was so good at like
splitting the difference between the two and like making it
so that like what we'll see these sequences with with
Shangoon and a Men Thompson during the regular season, where

(52:41):
it's just beautiful, like Katie draws two hits Shangoon in
the pocket, a man's there in the dunker spot lob dunk,
and it just looks beautiful, and like in theory, it
makes sense as a spacing concept until you run into
Victor Weben Yama, or you run into a chet holmgrin,
or you run into some kind of center that can
effectively like stunt at the role while also defending the lob,

(53:03):
and then all of a sudden, it's like, well, now
we can't have a Men Thompson in the dunker spot.
That doesn't work anymore. And now like in that Spurs game,
now you have Thompson whirling around with these dhos with
KD up top, and it's just going nowhere fast. And
that really is the thing where I just think this
there's a level of growth that we're going to need
to see out of a Men Thompson offensively for this

(53:25):
team to win the championship that I think is more
of a long shot in the context of this postseason.
And so I think they will defend better than they
have in crunch time, like some of their crunch time
defensive issues are just they got to play better defense.
But this offense issue down the stretch, I do think
it's going to turn into a lot of Shangoon left
shoulder hooks over to multiple defenders and Kevin Durant tough

(53:48):
contested mid range jump shots. And that's just a lot
of pressure to put on those two guys to make shots,
and they already have turnover issues in those situations that
don't make it any easier. I don't necessarily think the
late game offense issues are going away.

Speaker 1 (54:00):
I don't think it's going away either. And it's also
just another Kevin Durant team that seems to have a
missing it factor, and that's an element that is hard
to measure. We can't look at stats about that. But
there's something missing character wise about this Houston team. And
it won't surprise me if they're one of these teams
that flame out early and when you talk about the

(54:21):
Yanna Sweepstakes this summer, if that does drag into the summer,
if they're the team that says, you know what, screw it, we.

Speaker 2 (54:27):
Do have to make a big move, wouldn't be surprised.
All Right, We're gonna go kind of rapid fire. We
have two more teams that we have to hit. At
number eight, I have the Knicks, and I actually like
this is the most I've liked a Knick's team in
this era. I think their wings are all better versions
of themselves. Like Josh Hart's shooting the ball and doing
more offensively than he's ever done. McHale's way better defensively
than he was last year, and he shot the three
a lot better. Og is just an incredible player. He's

(54:49):
like one of the few really highly paid role players
that's like worth every penny, like ogn Andope's been really
good for them.

Speaker 3 (54:55):
I think they're deeper.

Speaker 2 (54:55):
I think they play a better brand of basketball on
both ends of the floor than they have in recent years.
They generate so many more catch and shoot looks because
of the way that they attack early in possessions and
how much more they trust the pass. Last year, they
straight up couldn't beat good teams. This year they've beat
more good teams. Another really impressive win against Boston the
other day, although I thought that was one of Boston's
just worst all around performances of the season. But I

(55:16):
have to keep them in the second tier just because
of their extensive track record of playoff issues, just their
defensive entry points between Cat and Brunson. Kat's also extremely
mistake prone. I have burned in my brain him crashing
off the top of the key against the Pacers and
giving up runouts to Siakam because he just doesn't understand
transition defense. And also the league is just better around

(55:37):
them than it used to be. So even though I
think this is a better version of the Knicks than
in recent years, I just don't view them as as
substantial as a threat as you would think for how
much better they are than last year.

Speaker 1 (55:48):
Yeah, I think that's spot on, and I have them eighth,
in a tier below San Antonio, Boston Detroit four tiers. Belove,
I have them eight as well.

Speaker 2 (56:03):
Okay, so I have Boston at nine, which we already
talked about. Yep, last team that will hit today. This
is a break for me. So I go down to
the third tier, and I think there's a couple other
teams that you could put in this tier, Like I
think you could include Tea.

Speaker 1 (56:14):
Yeah, you have them, sire one, say Tier one Lakers.

Speaker 2 (56:20):
So I have a funny stat for you have Lakers
at ten. These are the teams who have fared better
this season by win percentage against teams in the top
ten in point differential. The Clippers, who started six and
twenty one, Portland, Utah, Atlanta, and Charlotte. All five of
those teams where below five hundred have been better this
season against teams in the top ten and point differential.

(56:41):
Even during this recent run where the Lakers are playing
some of their best basketball this season, they're eight and
four in their last twelve games before the OKC game,
and then eight and three stretches their first ten plus
game stretch of the season where they were top ten
in both offense and defense. So like they're finally starting
to play some good basketball. In that eight and four stretch,
they're zero to three against teams that are in the
top ten and point differential. I got crushed by the Knicks.

(57:01):
I got crushed by the Calves, and they got crushed
but did not crushed by the Thunder. But they end
up losing that game to the Thunder. So the counterpoint
to this that any like optimistic Lakers fan would pitch
is like, well, our Big three has just never been healthy,
and when they're healthy, maybe they can reach a level
of offense that is just able to compete more with
some of these better teams in the league. But for me,
just the lack of athleticism, the lack of shooting.

Speaker 3 (57:23):
It just would.

Speaker 2 (57:23):
Require an all time great three dudes playing at like
a second team All NBA or better level between Austin,
Lebron and Luca for them to go win the title.
And I just think that's that's way too much to ask.
So I have them in that third tier.

Speaker 1 (57:38):
Yeah, I think that's fair. I have a ninth ahead
of this, the the Rockets. I'd throw the Sixers in
there as well. Okay, why not, what if it stays
healthy As an E team, I want to believe. I
want to believe, So my final tier would be mixed
Lakers Sixers Rockets. So I have eleven teams, four tiers.
You have ten teams three tiers. But I think you're

(58:00):
spawn on about the Lakers. They just don't have enough athleticism,
don't have enough defense. I think Austin Reeves is for real.
I think nationally a lot of people don't quite believe
that he's as great as he is an all he
was an All NBA player prior to the injury. Just
the reality of how good he is, and he's been
that good since his return, of course coming off the

(58:21):
bench with a fewer minutes. But the dudes for real.
But it's just too much to expect this all time
level one forty offensive rating, seven game series'. I don't
see it happening for three straight months.

Speaker 3 (58:35):
Me neither, Kevin. This was incredible.

Speaker 2 (58:37):
I really enjoyed this pod and a sincerely appreciate you
giving us your time. Why don't you tell everybody where
they can find your work?

Speaker 1 (58:43):
Thanks for having me, Jason, The Kevin O'Connor Show. You
can find that anywhere you get your podcast, or check
out the KOC Show over at Yahoo NBA. That's our
new YouTube channel.

Speaker 2 (58:51):
Hell yeah, dude, it was good to see you all right, everybody.
That's all we have for today. As always, we sincerely
appreciate you guys for supporting us in supporting the show.
I hope everyone has an incredible weekend. We'll be back
Monday with our rankings.

Speaker 3 (59:01):
I'll see you guys then