Jason reacts to the NBA Finals matchup between the San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks. He breaks down every angle involving Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, and more, before making his prediction.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The Volume. All right, well, good to hoop tonight here
at the Volume. Have you Monday, everybody, hope love you
guys are having a great start here week at jampackshow
for you guys today, this is step one of our
(00:23):
NBA Finals preview today. So today is just gonna be
pretty straightforward. It's gonna look like a lot of our
other series previews. I'm gonna give you guys the season
series information, the series prices from hard Rock Bet, and
then we'll talk a little bit about both ends of
the floor over the course of the next couple of days,
just so you guys know what to expect. Samvessini's coming
on the show, and we're gonna do more of like
a tactical kind of like strategic breakdown of this series.
(00:45):
Sam has always really been good with that, So that'll
be on the feed tomorrow morning, and then Wednesday morning,
we'll have something that's more along the lines of like
the surface level storyline type stuff, what storylines are at
stake as we head into this series before we go
live on YouTube after the final buzzer of Game one
on Wednesday. But today is just going to be kind
of like that surface level series preview like we typically do.
(01:08):
You guys are the joke before we get started. Subscribed
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that helps us a lot. All right, let's talk some basketball.
So the season series went two to one to the Knicks.
(01:31):
We had the Cup championship first. The Spurs actually had
a twelve point lead late in the third quarter of
that one. The Knicks made five threes in the next
five minutes spanning the final two minutes of the third
quarter in the early fourth quarter. That kind of flipped
the script on the lead and ended up putting the
Knicks up five, and then they basically stiff armed these
Spurs from there. This was also the one of the
(01:52):
games of the three games where the Knicks lit up
the scoreboard against Wemby. The Knicks had a great offensive
rating basically in every game but most of it had
to do with them having success against units that didn't
have Wemby on the floor in the other two games.
In the Cup championship game, the Knicks offense scored very
effectively against Victor Woman Yama. Again, they did hold up
(02:13):
better in the next two second game, a close Spurs
win in San Antonio. Wemby goes for thirty one in
this game, but he leaves the game early with an injury.
This was also the game that he was primarily guarded
by Ognnobi. We're going to talk about all the different matchups.
There's been a lot of discussion about Ognnobe as a
primary matchup for Wemby. I personally wouldn't go that route.
(02:35):
Not to say that you can't do it at time
from time to time during the series, especially in specific lineups,
but I really like og Anobi as a matchup for
Steph Cassel. We'll dig more into that idea when we
get later on in the show. The Knicks had an
eleven point lead in the fourth quarter of this game
after Wemby had left, and the Spurs came back to
win without Wemby. This was the Julian Champenni game. If
you guys, remember he had eleven threes and had a
(02:57):
season high thirty six points in this game against the Knicks.
That was a Spurs win, a close Spurs win. The
Knicks hit kind of like a garbage time three late
that cut it to two, but they kind of were
hovering around a five point lead down the stretch. The
third game in Madison Square Garden March first, This was
(03:17):
probably the best game to watch in this matchup for
me as I was watching film to prep for the series,
because the lineups looked relatively similar to what they are today.
The Spurs finally had moved Champagne into the starting lineup
in the barn spot, and it was also a game
where the Knicks had their typical starting five. This is
the game if you're a Knicks fan that you're looking
at is the biggest piece of evidence that you can
(03:39):
beat this team. This was during a part of the
season when the Spurs were killing everyone. In fact, this
Knicks win was smack dab in the middle of a
seventeen game stretch where the Spurs won every single other
game with exception of this loss to the Knicks. They
had won eleven in a row before the game and
(03:59):
they won five in a row after so they rolled
up and beat the heck out of a peaking San
Antonio Spurs team. The Spurs did jump out to an
early lead in this one, but the Knicks basically wired
to wire kick their ass from the tail the last
few minutes of the first quarter all the way through
to the finish line. They hit seventeen threes, they turned
the Spurs over twenty two times for twenty four points,
(04:21):
and they ended up winning by twenty five. Pulling up numbers,
like statistical evidence from this is complicated because the NBA
Cup game kind of exists in an entirely different filter
system from most of the platforms I use. So I'm
just going to kind of give you big picture data.
The main areas that the Knicks dominated this matchup. Fifty
(04:42):
four made threes in the three games. They just did
an amazing job of moving the ball versus the loaded
up Spurs defense, for clean looks at threes, and points
off of turnovers and fast break points. A couple of
those things are connected, So the points off of turnovers,
I think the turnovers themselves have a lot to do
with the Nick's size and how the Spurs guards and
(05:03):
victor women. Yama himself kind of struggled to turn the
corner or to gain advantage against bigger, stronger players compared
to like the dynamic against the Thunder where the guards
were smaller. Right, the number threes that they get in
the fast break points. I want to like tie these
two concepts together because there's a lot of like really
funky stuff with the matchups in this series, like people
(05:26):
guarding different people on either end of the floor, which
creates these cross matches where whenever there is an interchange
from offense to defense or vice versa, there's usually a
guy that needs to go guard somebody that's on the
other end of the floor because he was guarding somebody
else on that previous possession. Those cross matches are a
big part of why the Spurs ended up giving up
a lot of openings in transition off of those interchanges.
(05:49):
It it just felt like they weren't matched up a
lot of the time. That's going to be a tricky
thing that'll be interesting to watch as the series progresses,
is how much those cross matches end up favoring the
Knicks because they did have a substantial advantage in fast
break points points off turnovers and again a huge advantage
at the three point line. Now the lines, all of
our lines are provided by our partner, Hard Rock Bet.
(06:10):
The Spurs are a minus two hundred favorite. The Knicks
are a plus one seventy underdog. I can tell you
right now that I think the best value easily is
on the Knicks at plus one seventy. I think this
is an extremely close series, effectively a coin flip, and
you're getting nearly two to one odds on the Knick
side of this, right. So, like even if you were like, oh,
(06:33):
I think the Spurs are gonna win, but it's super close,
I just don't like that line as much as I
do that Nicks plus one seventy. So I think that's
the value bet in this particular case. Let's start with
the Knicks on offense. So I want to starting with
the initial matchups the way that it looked in the
in that March first game, which is the closest thing
(06:54):
we're going to get to what it looks like in
a in this coming playoff series, Pig and y'ama started
on Josh Hart. That caused some problems with Kat Underneath
the rim, I'm gonna dive into that concept here in
just a minute, Steph Castles guarded Karl Anthony Towns, Deeron
Fox guarded Jaylen Brunson, Devin vessel On, McHale Bridges and
Julian Champenny on Og and Nobi. Several things about this
(07:17):
look that give the Spurs trouble. One, Kat just has
a massive size advantage basically versus every Spurs rotation player
outside of Wemby in cornette. That is something he had
some success against Steph Castle, just like catching and ripping
and just using essentially his size to turn the corner
against Castle, just with quick moves, quick decision making, and
(07:38):
then the offensive glass. And this is where you know,
especially when you have Wemby who's coming closer to the
level against Brunson in ball screens involving Josh Hart. If
if Wemby's even just up at like the foul line
when the shot goes up, it creates this like inside
sealed dynamic where Karl Anthony Towns has an opportunity to
get good offensive rebounding position and underneath the basket. So
(08:02):
starting Kat is just a funky matchup for them. He's
just this big physical forward that probably isn't going to
be guarded by Wemby, at least not to start the series,
which means he's just going to be operating with physical
advantages all over the floor really against anybody who plays
for this group. One of the biggest things that stood
(08:22):
out in the film for me as I was prepping
over the last couple of days was Jalen Brunson's willingness
to take and make drop coverage threes, in this case
mostly from Josh Hart screens right, because Victor wemen Yama
is guarding Josh Hart and he's wanting to roam back
around the basket. So if Josh Hart sets a good
pick on Darren Fox out front and Wenby wants to
(08:45):
hang back around the basket or near ish the basket,
call it the foul line, call it the short the
semi circle, wherever he might be hanging back. It creates
this opening for Brunson to take a three off the
dribble against that deep drop. This is, you know, like,
Brunson is not a better basketball player than Shake Gills,
as Alexander, that would be a foolish thing for any
(09:07):
of us to think, but Brunson is actually, in many
ways the perfect example of why Shane needs to add
a ton of versatility. One of the reasons why I
just flat out expect Brunson to have a better series
against the Spurs than Shae did is this specific dynamic
he will take and make pull up threes against the
(09:27):
drop coverage. In that March first game, I think he
hit like three or four of them just in that game.
He'll he will take those, he will work out an
off ball action, he will go off the ball and
be a screener. All the things that I've said that
Shane needs to add to his game, Brunston's kind of
already doing so. Is Brunson going to be as impactful
(09:48):
at the just straight iso game that Shae is arguably
the best in the league at No? But his versatile
attack actually lines up really well with the way that
the Knicks on want to attack this Spurs defense. And again,
like you, it creates this dynamic where it's like, Okay,
Brunson can pretty cleanly step into these pull up threes
(10:08):
as long as josh Hart sets a good screen, and
if the guard does chase over the top and stay
attached to Brunson, Josh Hart's wide open on the pop
right and like we saw in the Cavs series, Like, yeah,
Josh Hart can have cold shooting games, but he can
also get super hot and do a ton of damage. Right,
So if you stay attached to Brunson, then Heart's open
on the pop. And even if Brunson misses the pull
(10:31):
up three after a good screen, if Wenby's up around
the foul line, it creates an offensive rebound advantage underneath
the basket. Really, for all the Knicks players that includes
og and Anobi, McHale, Bridges and Karl Anthony Towns, they're
all just carrying size advantages into the equation after the
shot goes up. And then lastly, all the cross matches
(10:51):
make them vulnerable in transition. We talked about this a
little bit earlier, but when you have Wenby guarding Josh
Hart and Steph Castle guard in Karl Anthony Towns, when
Karl Anthony Towns is not the guy guarding Steph Castle
on the other end of the floor, it just creates
this dynamic where everyone is running around to a different
body as things transition to defense, and that ends up
causing problems when a Knicks team is really good at
(11:13):
moving the ball up the floor and finding that quick
open man to attack you early in the shot clock.
I just think it's gonna be a difficult matchup for
san Antonio to handle all of the cross matching that
takes place in this matchup. Today's show is brought to
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and Tennessee. One of the main dynamics we saw in
the regular season was just the Knicks in their ability
(13:20):
to pull Wemby away from the rim because of their
three point shooting. I wonder how much will see Shawan's
a Sweeney counter this with that kind of one man's
zone concept, essentially being like, Okay, I'm guarding Josh Hart
to start the possession. But if Josh Hart is going
to go set a ball screen on Brunson, perhaps I
wave at you know, let's say it's Champenny. I wave
(13:42):
at Champagnay and go like, hey, dude, you go up
to guard Heart and switch the ball screen so that
he can't just immediately turn the corner or get into
his drop coverage game. And then I'll just guard whoever's
in the weekside corner. And essentially we saw this a
lot in the early part of the Thunder series and
it didn't work super well, But I wonder if that's
(14:02):
something that will see the Spurs tries essentially, like let's
just pre switch anything involving a screen or running up
to go get Brunson open, because then at least we
can keep when beyond that back line as much as possible.
But that that's gonna be an interesting part of that
chess match in general. On the film, Jalen Brunson looks
really comfortable against the Spurs guards. It's a very different matchup.
(14:26):
He's low to the ground, it's very herky, jerky. It's
a very different type of attack than the shake gilds
of Alexander, like I'm gonna drive into your chest and
push off and shoot like tough contested fadeaways. Not that
Brunson doesn't take tough contested shots. He certainly does. But
Brunson's attack is is very much more depending on like
quickness and change a direction and change a pace. And
(14:48):
he's lowered to the ground. He's got like legitimate, like
like a quickness advantage versus a lot of the Spurs
guards that I think is going to bode well for
him in this matchup. In the film, Brunson looks pretty
comfortable getting to his spots a couple of last kind
of quick hitters before we moved to the Spurs on offense.
Mohammed Dirwara played quite a bit in the regular season matchup.
He had a game where he took thirteen threes. I
(15:10):
think I think that was the March game if I
remember correctly. We don't know too many details about the
Mitchell Robinson injury and just how effective he's going to be.
I wonder if instead of going with like an aerial
hook PORTI if they just go small and play more
Mohammed Diajara if Mitchell Robinson for whatever reason is not
able to be impactful. But I do think Mitchell end
up playing. We always have the option for the Knicks
(15:34):
to go towards Lander Shammitt for more shooting. So, for instance,
if just leaving Josh Hart open is working because Josh
isn't making shots, they can always go towards Landry and
basically put the Spurs in the predicament of not really
having somebody they can help off I do think that
we will see at least at some point in the series,
wenb just move over to Kat for the simple dynamic
(15:56):
that Kat is having so many size advantages around the
basket and it gives him a better chance to hang back.
And then I think they would rotate to the pop.
So like if he said a pick and pop, Wenby
would just drop back to the basket, and then they
would we'd see similar to that one man zone where
they would rotate to Cat from the weak side and
Wenby would just kind of naturally move towards whoever's in
(16:17):
the weekside corner. And then lastly, Jordan Clarkson. He had
a big moment against the Spurs in the Cup Championship
game this year, hit a bunch of threes, made a
bunch of plays in the fourth quarter. He hasn't been
in the rotation too much in this postseason run, but
I'm curious to see if he ends up getting an
opportunity to play in this series. All right, let's move
to the Spurs on offense. These initial matchups. I'm giving
(16:40):
you what I think they should do. I'm not necessarily
sure this is what they are going to do. This
is what I would do though, if I was coaching
the Knicks for how to match up with the Spurs
on offense, I would put og in and Obi on
Steph Castle instead of deploying him on someone like Victor
wemen Yama. A couple of specific reasons for that one.
(17:02):
I actually think Kat does a really good job on Wemby.
Now foul trouble would be an interesting thing there. I
think one of the biggest subplots of this series is
just Victor wemen Yama's ability to get Kat in foul
trouble and force him to leave the floor. But caat
when he beats Wenby to spots and is just physical
with his hands, Like he does a pretty good job
of doing basically what Hartenstein did of just using his
(17:22):
strength and lower center of gravity to prevent Wenby from
getting deep paint touches. Right, So, like that's the first
part of it, Like I actually just like the cat
matchup on Wemby. The second piece of it is og
Nanobe is the perfect type of big, physical forward to
neutralize the way that Castle likes to drive the basketball.
Castle is not a first step quickness like lights you
(17:43):
up with speed type of guard. He's very Jimmy Butler
esque in the way that he kind of just uses
he plays off of two feet constantly, and he basically
just kind of methodically works his way into the lane
using his size and strength. Og Nanobe can counter that
because he is bigger and stronger. So I like that
specific dynamic with the with Ojan and Obian Castle and
(18:04):
Cat on Wemby, because not only do I think they
both guard each other well there, guard their matchupswell there,
but it also gives them the ability to switch that action,
especially with Castle's kind of sketchy three point shot. If
a Cat ends up on Castle on a switch, he
can just give space and basically force him to take
a contested pull up. And there you have Ojan and
Obi on Wemby where he can cause some problems by
(18:25):
getting physical underneath him. Jalen Brunson on Julian Champenne. File
that away because we'll talk more about the different ways
that the Spurs will look to attack Brunson, and then
with Heart and Michale, you could go with hert on
Vassel and McHale on Fox. McHale has typically guarded the
speed guard for the other team. The one thing that
I would consider doing here though, is because you can
(18:47):
go both ways with this, I consider putting Josh Hart
on deeran Fox, so that you can switch the Wemby
Fox pick and roll right. If you put Hart on
Vassell and McHale is on Fox, I think mcale is
going to be a little physically overwhelmed against Wemby in particular,
and I think Castle is a little bit more capable
of bullying a guy like mkhaale, and he is a
guy like Og. But if you have Josh Hart on
(19:08):
dearon Fox, and this is where that injury, the ankle injury,
like I wonder if the Fox ankle injury will just
make dearon Fox not fast enough to really punish Josh
Hart in the speed advantage that he has. So if
Josh Hart is capable of guarding Fox kind of on
an island one on one, then he could also switch
(19:28):
those ball screens. And if og Cat and Josh Hart
are on are on those particular the Castle Wenby Fox,
you just switch any ball screen involving those three guys,
and it gives you a better chance to to kind
of shut down the role man attack that san Antonio
(19:49):
uses so effectively, the one kind of like wrinkle there
is like okay, but what if Daron Fox gets Karl
Anthony Towns on him on a switch. Is he able
to kind of break him down off the bounce and
create something again your play. You're in the finals. These
teams have really good offensive players. There's no perfect defensive solution,
but it's something that I think that I would I
(20:10):
would consider so that you have the ability to switch
your big, physical wings onto Wemby regardless of where he's
at on the floor. The most successful play type that
the Spurs ran in this matchup was a cleared side
off ball action where Wemby would start like in the
corner or on the wing, and essentially they would have
(20:33):
Brunson's man, so usually Julian Champenni. But you know, there
are different guys that Brunson would be guarding at different
phases in the game, but they would basically just have
him run over and set a screen for Victor Wemenyama
on the wing. Now, yeah, so Gananobe spent some time
on Victor wemen Yama in the regular season, but a
lot of the reps were just centers Mitchell Robinson or
(20:53):
Karl Anthony Towns, and those guys tend to struggle to
navigate screens and Brunson's not gonna want to just switch
on to Wemby. The spurs. Got a lot of good
looks for Wemby, like little just curling fifteen footers, curling
dunks down the lane, like oh, he went way under
and I just took a three. Like Wenby got lots
of good looks off of this very simple action, just
(21:14):
him starting on the left wing, having Brunson's man go
and set a pick. Brunson doesn't want to help. Wemby
just curls the action and he looks to attack off
of the catch there, and then again if Brunson does
hang back in the lane and help or switch in
any way shape or form, that's where Champagne gets wide
open slipping out of the screen. That like when it
(21:35):
comes to the other ways to attack Brunson, like Champagnie
slip screens for example, like Champagne coming up to the
ball handler, so like Fox for example, and just setting
a ghost screen and slipping out and Brunson throws a hedge,
you can hit Champennie there, he can hit a little
three at the top of the key. But one of
the things I noticed in the film is like in
(21:57):
a lot of cases, the Champagne would just struggle to
actually set enough of a screen to get Brunton to
actually help. He would either slip and Brunson wooden't edge,
or the defender would just fight through the champannee screen
and they wouldn't get any advantage there. They tried a
lot of those same double drag you pinch screens that
we saw in the OKC series too, where Brunson would
(22:18):
be involved, but they just do a pretty good job
of funneling it into a drop coverage look where they're
okay with a guy like Castle or Fox just kind
of going into the lane and taking a contested fifteen footer.
What I like about those wide screens, those off ball
screens for Wemby is it gets your best player of
the ball in a clear situation of advantage in space
(22:39):
to catch and be aggressive. It is so much harder
to protect Brunson in that specific situation. Deern Fox is
one of the biggest keys of the series just simply
because the other guards struggle against the Knick's perimeter size.
Dylan Harper and Steph Castle both try to overpower players
a lot, and that's just difficult to do against a
team and the Knicks that is so big on the perimeter,
(23:01):
Darren Fox, and how explosive he is and how good
he is at beating the first layer of New York's
defense and generating quality kickout threes. That's gonna be one
of the big keys of the series. Like a lot
of the best stretches of offense for the Spurs in
the regular season started with Fox just getting good dribble
penetration against that Knicks defense. This series will put a
(23:22):
much higher emphasis on Wemby's scoring this because the Guards
don't have as much of an advantage like they did
in the last round. Wemby's gonna have to be the
guy that provides more volume scoring in this matchup. I
think in order for them to win the series, he's
gonna have to be up around twenty seven to twenty
eight points per game. Wemby was turnover prone in the
regular season against this team, mainly because they just stonewalled
(23:44):
his drives. Whenever he would look to drive, they would
just get physical with him and flatten him out, and
they would sync in with like og or McHale and
just start digging down at the basketball, and he had
some big turnover issues. Wemby's offense is going to get
a pretty tough evaluation in this series. He's going to
have to do some problem solving against a team that's
more physically set up to handle them. Ojn Andobi ranging
(24:07):
off of Castle and help Steph Castle did not shoot
well in the OKC series. Ogn and Obi is one
of the best help defenders in the league. He functions
as like a secondary rim protector behind Karl Anthony Towns.
There's a lot of emphasis on Stephan Castle making Og
pay by knocking down the wide open catch and shoot
(24:28):
threes that result from Og helping at the rim. So again,
I think the Spurs offense, it's really going to come
down to how well they attack Brunson the different actions
in which they do so. Again, I think those wide
screens for Wemby are the best way. And then dearon
Fox and Victor wemen Yama, because I just don't think
this is going to be a Steph Castle Dylan Harper series.
Necessarily Dylan Harper more so than Steph. I think Dylan
(24:50):
will have some moments, but like I think Steph's gonna
have a rough series. It's just a tough matchup for him.
So it's going to put a heavier emphasis on those
guys to be able to score my pick. So I
thought I would come in this morning leaning slightly towards
the Spurs. That was how I was feeling when I
was talking with Colin yesterday. But after watching more film
and really digging in, I actually lean slightly towards the Knicks.
(25:13):
It's very close. I have it like literally fifty five
to forty five, so as close to a coin flip
as it can be. But I just think the Knicks
have a team that is kind of specifically built to
give the Spurs issues on both ends of the floor.
They move the ball extremely well with quality play finishing
against the defensive looks where the Spurs either try to
load up or they roam with a guy like Wemby.
(25:34):
They have the physical size and high defensive IQ to
keep San Antonio's guards in front and turn them into
a jump shooting team. All of that cross matching really
opens up their transition attack and then four, I just
think Brunson will be far, far and away the most
reliable offensive player in the series. Again, Shay is a
better player than Brunson, but Brunson's diverse attack and quickness
(25:55):
is a better matchup for the way that the Spurs
like to guard. So I'm picking the Knicks to win
this series six games, but it's very, very close to me. Again,
fifty five to forty five will not be the slightest
bit surprised if San Antonio ended up winning. And again,
if you're looking for betting value, I think the Knick
set plus one seventy makes the most sense because you're
getting nearly two to one odds for roughly a coin
(26:18):
flip series. All right, that's all I have for today. Again,
Sam Vasini will be coming on the show tomorrow to
do a more tactical breakdown on the series, and then
we'll have some big storyline stuff on Wednesday and then
live on YouTube after the final buzzer of Game one
on Wednesday night. As always, as sincerely appreciate you guys
for supporting us and supporting the show. I'll see you
tomorrow morning.
The Volume. All right, well, good to hoop tonight here
at the Volume. Have you Monday, everybody, hope love you
guys are having a great start here week at jampackshow
for you guys today, this is step one of our
(00:23):
NBA Finals preview today. So today is just gonna be
pretty straightforward. It's gonna look like a lot of our
other series previews. I'm gonna give you guys the season
series information, the series prices from hard Rock Bet, and
then we'll talk a little bit about both ends of
the floor over the course of the next couple of days,
just so you guys know what to expect. Samvessini's coming
on the show, and we're gonna do more of like
a tactical kind of like strategic breakdown of this series.
(00:45):
Sam has always really been good with that, So that'll
be on the feed tomorrow morning, and then Wednesday morning,
we'll have something that's more along the lines of like
the surface level storyline type stuff, what storylines are at
stake as we head into this series before we go
live on YouTube after the final buzzer of Game one
on Wednesday. But today is just going to be kind
of like that surface level series preview like we typically do.
(01:08):
You guys are the joke before we get started. Subscribed
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that helps us a lot. All right, let's talk some basketball.
So the season series went two to one to the Knicks.
(01:31):
We had the Cup championship first. The Spurs actually had
a twelve point lead late in the third quarter of
that one. The Knicks made five threes in the next
five minutes spanning the final two minutes of the third
quarter in the early fourth quarter. That kind of flipped
the script on the lead and ended up putting the
Knicks up five, and then they basically stiff armed these
Spurs from there. This was also the one of the
(01:52):
games of the three games where the Knicks lit up
the scoreboard against Wemby. The Knicks had a great offensive
rating basically in every game but most of it had
to do with them having success against units that didn't
have Wemby on the floor in the other two games.
In the Cup championship game, the Knicks offense scored very
effectively against Victor Woman Yama. Again, they did hold up
(02:13):
better in the next two second game, a close Spurs
win in San Antonio. Wemby goes for thirty one in
this game, but he leaves the game early with an injury.
This was also the game that he was primarily guarded
by Ognnobi. We're going to talk about all the different matchups.
There's been a lot of discussion about Ognnobe as a
primary matchup for Wemby. I personally wouldn't go that route.
(02:35):
Not to say that you can't do it at time
from time to time during the series, especially in specific lineups,
but I really like og Anobi as a matchup for
Steph Cassel. We'll dig more into that idea when we
get later on in the show. The Knicks had an
eleven point lead in the fourth quarter of this game
after Wemby had left, and the Spurs came back to
win without Wemby. This was the Julian Champenni game. If
you guys, remember he had eleven threes and had a
(02:57):
season high thirty six points in this game against the Knicks.
That was a Spurs win, a close Spurs win. The
Knicks hit kind of like a garbage time three late
that cut it to two, but they kind of were
hovering around a five point lead down the stretch. The
third game in Madison Square Garden March first, This was
(03:17):
probably the best game to watch in this matchup for
me as I was watching film to prep for the series,
because the lineups looked relatively similar to what they are today.
The Spurs finally had moved Champagne into the starting lineup
in the barn spot, and it was also a game
where the Knicks had their typical starting five. This is
the game if you're a Knicks fan that you're looking
at is the biggest piece of evidence that you can
(03:39):
beat this team. This was during a part of the
season when the Spurs were killing everyone. In fact, this
Knicks win was smack dab in the middle of a
seventeen game stretch where the Spurs won every single other
game with exception of this loss to the Knicks. They
had won eleven in a row before the game and
(03:59):
they won five in a row after so they rolled
up and beat the heck out of a peaking San
Antonio Spurs team. The Spurs did jump out to an
early lead in this one, but the Knicks basically wired
to wire kick their ass from the tail the last
few minutes of the first quarter all the way through
to the finish line. They hit seventeen threes, they turned
the Spurs over twenty two times for twenty four points,
(04:21):
and they ended up winning by twenty five. Pulling up numbers,
like statistical evidence from this is complicated because the NBA
Cup game kind of exists in an entirely different filter
system from most of the platforms I use. So I'm
just going to kind of give you big picture data.
The main areas that the Knicks dominated this matchup. Fifty
(04:42):
four made threes in the three games. They just did
an amazing job of moving the ball versus the loaded
up Spurs defense, for clean looks at threes, and points
off of turnovers and fast break points. A couple of
those things are connected, So the points off of turnovers,
I think the turnovers themselves have a lot to do
with the Nick's size and how the Spurs guards and
(05:03):
victor women. Yama himself kind of struggled to turn the
corner or to gain advantage against bigger, stronger players compared
to like the dynamic against the Thunder where the guards
were smaller. Right, the number threes that they get in
the fast break points. I want to like tie these
two concepts together because there's a lot of like really
funky stuff with the matchups in this series, like people
(05:26):
guarding different people on either end of the floor, which
creates these cross matches where whenever there is an interchange
from offense to defense or vice versa, there's usually a
guy that needs to go guard somebody that's on the
other end of the floor because he was guarding somebody
else on that previous possession. Those cross matches are a
big part of why the Spurs ended up giving up
a lot of openings in transition off of those interchanges.
(05:49):
It it just felt like they weren't matched up a
lot of the time. That's going to be a tricky
thing that'll be interesting to watch as the series progresses,
is how much those cross matches end up favoring the
Knicks because they did have a substantial advantage in fast
break points points off turnovers and again a huge advantage
at the three point line. Now the lines, all of
our lines are provided by our partner, Hard Rock Bet.
(06:10):
The Spurs are a minus two hundred favorite. The Knicks
are a plus one seventy underdog. I can tell you
right now that I think the best value easily is
on the Knicks at plus one seventy. I think this
is an extremely close series, effectively a coin flip, and
you're getting nearly two to one odds on the Knick
side of this, right. So, like even if you were like, oh,
(06:33):
I think the Spurs are gonna win, but it's super close,
I just don't like that line as much as I
do that Nicks plus one seventy. So I think that's
the value bet in this particular case. Let's start with
the Knicks on offense. So I want to starting with
the initial matchups the way that it looked in the
in that March first game, which is the closest thing
(06:54):
we're going to get to what it looks like in
a in this coming playoff series, Pig and y'ama started
on Josh Hart. That caused some problems with Kat Underneath
the rim, I'm gonna dive into that concept here in
just a minute, Steph Castles guarded Karl Anthony Towns, Deeron
Fox guarded Jaylen Brunson, Devin vessel On, McHale Bridges and
Julian Champenny on Og and Nobi. Several things about this
(07:17):
look that give the Spurs trouble. One, Kat just has
a massive size advantage basically versus every Spurs rotation player
outside of Wemby in cornette. That is something he had
some success against Steph Castle, just like catching and ripping
and just using essentially his size to turn the corner
against Castle, just with quick moves, quick decision making, and
(07:38):
then the offensive glass. And this is where you know,
especially when you have Wemby who's coming closer to the
level against Brunson in ball screens involving Josh Hart. If
if Wemby's even just up at like the foul line
when the shot goes up, it creates this like inside
sealed dynamic where Karl Anthony Towns has an opportunity to
get good offensive rebounding position and underneath the basket. So
(08:02):
starting Kat is just a funky matchup for them. He's
just this big physical forward that probably isn't going to
be guarded by Wemby, at least not to start the series,
which means he's just going to be operating with physical
advantages all over the floor really against anybody who plays
for this group. One of the biggest things that stood
(08:22):
out in the film for me as I was prepping
over the last couple of days was Jalen Brunson's willingness
to take and make drop coverage threes, in this case
mostly from Josh Hart screens right, because Victor wemen Yama
is guarding Josh Hart and he's wanting to roam back
around the basket. So if Josh Hart sets a good
pick on Darren Fox out front and Wenby wants to
(08:45):
hang back around the basket or near ish the basket,
call it the foul line, call it the short the
semi circle, wherever he might be hanging back. It creates
this opening for Brunson to take a three off the
dribble against that deep drop. This is, you know, like,
Brunson is not a better basketball player than Shake Gills,
as Alexander, that would be a foolish thing for any
(09:07):
of us to think, but Brunson is actually, in many
ways the perfect example of why Shane needs to add
a ton of versatility. One of the reasons why I
just flat out expect Brunson to have a better series
against the Spurs than Shae did is this specific dynamic
he will take and make pull up threes against the
(09:27):
drop coverage. In that March first game, I think he
hit like three or four of them just in that game.
He'll he will take those, he will work out an
off ball action, he will go off the ball and
be a screener. All the things that I've said that
Shane needs to add to his game, Brunston's kind of
already doing so. Is Brunson going to be as impactful
(09:48):
at the just straight iso game that Shae is arguably
the best in the league at No? But his versatile
attack actually lines up really well with the way that
the Knicks on want to attack this Spurs defense. And again,
like you, it creates this dynamic where it's like, Okay,
Brunson can pretty cleanly step into these pull up threes
(10:08):
as long as josh Hart sets a good screen, and
if the guard does chase over the top and stay
attached to Brunson, Josh Hart's wide open on the pop
right and like we saw in the Cavs series, Like, yeah,
Josh Hart can have cold shooting games, but he can
also get super hot and do a ton of damage. Right,
So if you stay attached to Brunson, then Heart's open
on the pop. And even if Brunson misses the pull
(10:31):
up three after a good screen, if Wenby's up around
the foul line, it creates an offensive rebound advantage underneath
the basket. Really, for all the Knicks players that includes
og and Anobi, McHale, Bridges and Karl Anthony Towns, they're
all just carrying size advantages into the equation after the
shot goes up. And then lastly, all the cross matches
(10:51):
make them vulnerable in transition. We talked about this a
little bit earlier, but when you have Wenby guarding Josh
Hart and Steph Castle guard in Karl Anthony Towns, when
Karl Anthony Towns is not the guy guarding Steph Castle
on the other end of the floor, it just creates
this dynamic where everyone is running around to a different
body as things transition to defense, and that ends up
causing problems when a Knicks team is really good at
(11:13):
moving the ball up the floor and finding that quick
open man to attack you early in the shot clock.
I just think it's gonna be a difficult matchup for
san Antonio to handle all of the cross matching that
takes place in this matchup. Today's show is brought to
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and Tennessee. One of the main dynamics we saw in
the regular season was just the Knicks in their ability
(13:20):
to pull Wemby away from the rim because of their
three point shooting. I wonder how much will see Shawan's
a Sweeney counter this with that kind of one man's
zone concept, essentially being like, Okay, I'm guarding Josh Hart
to start the possession. But if Josh Hart is going
to go set a ball screen on Brunson, perhaps I
wave at you know, let's say it's Champenny. I wave
(13:42):
at Champagnay and go like, hey, dude, you go up
to guard Heart and switch the ball screen so that
he can't just immediately turn the corner or get into
his drop coverage game. And then I'll just guard whoever's
in the weekside corner. And essentially we saw this a
lot in the early part of the Thunder series and
it didn't work super well, But I wonder if that's
(14:02):
something that will see the Spurs tries essentially, like let's
just pre switch anything involving a screen or running up
to go get Brunson open, because then at least we
can keep when beyond that back line as much as possible.
But that that's gonna be an interesting part of that
chess match in general. On the film, Jalen Brunson looks
really comfortable against the Spurs guards. It's a very different matchup.
(14:26):
He's low to the ground, it's very herky, jerky. It's
a very different type of attack than the shake gilds
of Alexander, like I'm gonna drive into your chest and
push off and shoot like tough contested fadeaways. Not that
Brunson doesn't take tough contested shots. He certainly does. But
Brunson's attack is is very much more depending on like
quickness and change a direction and change a pace. And
(14:48):
he's lowered to the ground. He's got like legitimate, like
like a quickness advantage versus a lot of the Spurs
guards that I think is going to bode well for
him in this matchup. In the film, Brunson looks pretty
comfortable getting to his spots a couple of last kind
of quick hitters before we moved to the Spurs on offense.
Mohammed Dirwara played quite a bit in the regular season matchup.
He had a game where he took thirteen threes. I
(15:10):
think I think that was the March game if I
remember correctly. We don't know too many details about the
Mitchell Robinson injury and just how effective he's going to be.
I wonder if instead of going with like an aerial
hook PORTI if they just go small and play more
Mohammed Diajara if Mitchell Robinson for whatever reason is not
able to be impactful. But I do think Mitchell end
up playing. We always have the option for the Knicks
(15:34):
to go towards Lander Shammitt for more shooting. So, for instance,
if just leaving Josh Hart open is working because Josh
isn't making shots, they can always go towards Landry and
basically put the Spurs in the predicament of not really
having somebody they can help off I do think that
we will see at least at some point in the series,
wenb just move over to Kat for the simple dynamic
(15:56):
that Kat is having so many size advantages around the
basket and it gives him a better chance to hang back.
And then I think they would rotate to the pop.
So like if he said a pick and pop, Wenby
would just drop back to the basket, and then they
would we'd see similar to that one man zone where
they would rotate to Cat from the weak side and
Wenby would just kind of naturally move towards whoever's in
(16:17):
the weekside corner. And then lastly, Jordan Clarkson. He had
a big moment against the Spurs in the Cup Championship
game this year, hit a bunch of threes, made a
bunch of plays in the fourth quarter. He hasn't been
in the rotation too much in this postseason run, but
I'm curious to see if he ends up getting an
opportunity to play in this series. All right, let's move
to the Spurs on offense. These initial matchups. I'm giving
(16:40):
you what I think they should do. I'm not necessarily
sure this is what they are going to do. This
is what I would do though, if I was coaching
the Knicks for how to match up with the Spurs
on offense, I would put og in and Obi on
Steph Castle instead of deploying him on someone like Victor
wemen Yama. A couple of specific reasons for that one.
(17:02):
I actually think Kat does a really good job on Wemby.
Now foul trouble would be an interesting thing there. I
think one of the biggest subplots of this series is
just Victor wemen Yama's ability to get Kat in foul
trouble and force him to leave the floor. But caat
when he beats Wenby to spots and is just physical
with his hands, Like he does a pretty good job
of doing basically what Hartenstein did of just using his
(17:22):
strength and lower center of gravity to prevent Wenby from
getting deep paint touches. Right, So, like that's the first
part of it, Like I actually just like the cat
matchup on Wemby. The second piece of it is og
Nanobe is the perfect type of big, physical forward to
neutralize the way that Castle likes to drive the basketball.
Castle is not a first step quickness like lights you
(17:43):
up with speed type of guard. He's very Jimmy Butler
esque in the way that he kind of just uses
he plays off of two feet constantly, and he basically
just kind of methodically works his way into the lane
using his size and strength. Og Nanobe can counter that
because he is bigger and stronger. So I like that
specific dynamic with the with Ojan and Obian Castle and
(18:04):
Cat on Wemby, because not only do I think they
both guard each other well there, guard their matchupswell there,
but it also gives them the ability to switch that action,
especially with Castle's kind of sketchy three point shot. If
a Cat ends up on Castle on a switch, he
can just give space and basically force him to take
a contested pull up. And there you have Ojan and
Obi on Wemby where he can cause some problems by
(18:25):
getting physical underneath him. Jalen Brunson on Julian Champenne. File
that away because we'll talk more about the different ways
that the Spurs will look to attack Brunson, and then
with Heart and Michale, you could go with hert on
Vassel and McHale on Fox. McHale has typically guarded the
speed guard for the other team. The one thing that
I would consider doing here though, is because you can
(18:47):
go both ways with this, I consider putting Josh Hart
on deeran Fox, so that you can switch the Wemby
Fox pick and roll right. If you put Hart on
Vassell and McHale is on Fox, I think mcale is
going to be a little physically overwhelmed against Wemby in particular,
and I think Castle is a little bit more capable
of bullying a guy like mkhaale, and he is a
guy like Og. But if you have Josh Hart on
(19:08):
dearon Fox, and this is where that injury, the ankle injury,
like I wonder if the Fox ankle injury will just
make dearon Fox not fast enough to really punish Josh
Hart in the speed advantage that he has. So if
Josh Hart is capable of guarding Fox kind of on
an island one on one, then he could also switch
(19:28):
those ball screens. And if og Cat and Josh Hart
are on are on those particular the Castle Wenby Fox,
you just switch any ball screen involving those three guys,
and it gives you a better chance to to kind
of shut down the role man attack that san Antonio
(19:49):
uses so effectively, the one kind of like wrinkle there
is like okay, but what if Daron Fox gets Karl
Anthony Towns on him on a switch. Is he able
to kind of break him down off the bounce and
create something again your play. You're in the finals. These
teams have really good offensive players. There's no perfect defensive solution,
but it's something that I think that I would I
(20:10):
would consider so that you have the ability to switch
your big, physical wings onto Wemby regardless of where he's
at on the floor. The most successful play type that
the Spurs ran in this matchup was a cleared side
off ball action where Wemby would start like in the
corner or on the wing, and essentially they would have
(20:33):
Brunson's man, so usually Julian Champenni. But you know, there
are different guys that Brunson would be guarding at different
phases in the game, but they would basically just have
him run over and set a screen for Victor Wemenyama
on the wing. Now, yeah, so Gananobe spent some time
on Victor wemen Yama in the regular season, but a
lot of the reps were just centers Mitchell Robinson or
(20:53):
Karl Anthony Towns, and those guys tend to struggle to
navigate screens and Brunson's not gonna want to just switch
on to Wemby. The spurs. Got a lot of good
looks for Wemby, like little just curling fifteen footers, curling
dunks down the lane, like oh, he went way under
and I just took a three. Like Wenby got lots
of good looks off of this very simple action, just
(21:14):
him starting on the left wing, having Brunson's man go
and set a pick. Brunson doesn't want to help. Wemby
just curls the action and he looks to attack off
of the catch there, and then again if Brunson does
hang back in the lane and help or switch in
any way shape or form, that's where Champagne gets wide
open slipping out of the screen. That like when it
(21:35):
comes to the other ways to attack Brunson, like Champagnie
slip screens for example, like Champagne coming up to the
ball handler, so like Fox for example, and just setting
a ghost screen and slipping out and Brunson throws a hedge,
you can hit Champennie there, he can hit a little
three at the top of the key. But one of
the things I noticed in the film is like in
(21:57):
a lot of cases, the Champagne would just struggle to
actually set enough of a screen to get Brunton to
actually help. He would either slip and Brunson wooden't edge,
or the defender would just fight through the champannee screen
and they wouldn't get any advantage there. They tried a
lot of those same double drag you pinch screens that
we saw in the OKC series too, where Brunson would
(22:18):
be involved, but they just do a pretty good job
of funneling it into a drop coverage look where they're
okay with a guy like Castle or Fox just kind
of going into the lane and taking a contested fifteen footer.
What I like about those wide screens, those off ball
screens for Wemby is it gets your best player of
the ball in a clear situation of advantage in space
(22:39):
to catch and be aggressive. It is so much harder
to protect Brunson in that specific situation. Deern Fox is
one of the biggest keys of the series just simply
because the other guards struggle against the Knick's perimeter size.
Dylan Harper and Steph Castle both try to overpower players
a lot, and that's just difficult to do against a
team and the Knicks that is so big on the perimeter,
(23:01):
Darren Fox, and how explosive he is and how good
he is at beating the first layer of New York's
defense and generating quality kickout threes. That's gonna be one
of the big keys of the series. Like a lot
of the best stretches of offense for the Spurs in
the regular season started with Fox just getting good dribble
penetration against that Knicks defense. This series will put a
(23:22):
much higher emphasis on Wemby's scoring this because the Guards
don't have as much of an advantage like they did
in the last round. Wemby's gonna have to be the
guy that provides more volume scoring in this matchup. I
think in order for them to win the series, he's
gonna have to be up around twenty seven to twenty
eight points per game. Wemby was turnover prone in the
regular season against this team, mainly because they just stonewalled
(23:44):
his drives. Whenever he would look to drive, they would
just get physical with him and flatten him out, and
they would sync in with like og or McHale and
just start digging down at the basketball, and he had
some big turnover issues. Wemby's offense is going to get
a pretty tough evaluation in this series. He's going to
have to do some problem solving against a team that's
more physically set up to handle them. Ojn Andobi ranging
(24:07):
off of Castle and help Steph Castle did not shoot
well in the OKC series. Ogn and Obi is one
of the best help defenders in the league. He functions
as like a secondary rim protector behind Karl Anthony Towns.
There's a lot of emphasis on Stephan Castle making Og
pay by knocking down the wide open catch and shoot
(24:28):
threes that result from Og helping at the rim. So again,
I think the Spurs offense, it's really going to come
down to how well they attack Brunson the different actions
in which they do so. Again, I think those wide
screens for Wemby are the best way. And then dearon
Fox and Victor wemen Yama, because I just don't think
this is going to be a Steph Castle Dylan Harper series.
Necessarily Dylan Harper more so than Steph. I think Dylan
(24:50):
will have some moments, but like I think Steph's gonna
have a rough series. It's just a tough matchup for him.
So it's going to put a heavier emphasis on those
guys to be able to score my pick. So I
thought I would come in this morning leaning slightly towards
the Spurs. That was how I was feeling when I
was talking with Colin yesterday. But after watching more film
and really digging in, I actually lean slightly towards the Knicks.
(25:13):
It's very close. I have it like literally fifty five
to forty five, so as close to a coin flip
as it can be. But I just think the Knicks
have a team that is kind of specifically built to
give the Spurs issues on both ends of the floor.
They move the ball extremely well with quality play finishing
against the defensive looks where the Spurs either try to
load up or they roam with a guy like Wemby.
(25:34):
They have the physical size and high defensive IQ to
keep San Antonio's guards in front and turn them into
a jump shooting team. All of that cross matching really
opens up their transition attack and then four, I just
think Brunson will be far, far and away the most
reliable offensive player in the series. Again, Shay is a
better player than Brunson, but Brunson's diverse attack and quickness
(25:55):
is a better matchup for the way that the Spurs
like to guard. So I'm picking the Knicks to win
this series six games, but it's very, very close to me. Again,
fifty five to forty five will not be the slightest
bit surprised if San Antonio ended up winning. And again,
if you're looking for betting value, I think the Knick
set plus one seventy makes the most sense because you're
getting nearly two to one odds for roughly a coin
(26:18):
flip series. All right, that's all I have for today. Again,
Sam Vasini will be coming on the show tomorrow to
do a more tactical breakdown on the series, and then
we'll have some big storyline stuff on Wednesday and then
live on YouTube after the final buzzer of Game one
on Wednesday night. As always, as sincerely appreciate you guys
for supporting us and supporting the show. I'll see you
tomorrow morning.
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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