August 11, 2026 • 43 mins
Will Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs return to Super Bowl glory? Are the Los Angeles Chargers ready to make a leap with head coach Jim Harbaugh? Will the Denver Broncos build on the success of 2025 or fall back to Earth? And will Fernando Mendoza take the reins of the Las Vegas Raiders this season? NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter dive into one of the most competitive divisions in the league as they continue their annual eight-part division-by-division NFL previews. PLUS, we hear the long-awaited announcement of Chad's new book THE NUMBER, which is now available for online preorder at your favorite retailer. Preorder customers can access our brand new Discord community, and receive an extra chapter not included in the book! Just visit ReadTheNumber.com for more information.
Bo Nix is recovering from injury looking to make Denver the No. 1 seed in the AFC again. But many predict a career season for Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert under new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel. Plus, our duo dives into how professional sports bettors are handling these teams, especially a Las Vegas Raiders team that may start Kirk Cousins under center in Week 1. We also hear some picks and predictions for the upcoming season, along with some exotic division wagers to get every gambler excited about the 2026 NFL season. #Volume
0:03:00 - START
0:04:00 - CHAD'S NEW BOOK "THE NUMBER"
0:10:15 - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS SEASON PREVIEW
0:22:20 - LA CHARGERS SEASON PREVIEW
0:30:12 - DENVER BRONCOS SEASON PREVIEW
0:44:25 - LAS VEGAS RAIDERS SEASON PREVIEW
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper Swear, part of the Volume podcast Network.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
This is the betting show.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
That makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys
pay attention. I am Chad Nolman and I am joined
as always by my co host, my bff, my companion,
my Campadre Professional Better.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Simon Hunter Ello. Simon Chad. How are we doing, dude, massive,
Massive news today? Are you ready?
Speaker 1 (00:31):
I have mentioned, I have mentioned on this show many
many times in the past eighteen months that I've been
working on a new book about the world of sports
betting for Penguin Press. Today, on this show, with our
beloved community, we are officially announcing that The Number, Chasing
the Biggest Edge in Sports will be out on January twelfth,
(00:55):
twenty twenty seven. Matt Mitchell is throwing up a look
at the cover. For those who are watching it on
YouTube right now. You can go to Read the Number
to check out more. You can pre order the book
at readth Number dot com. I'm going to tell you
about all the cool stuff you get if you pre order.
I wanted to announce it on the show because our
(01:17):
audience has been with us for a very, very.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
Long time and kind of inspired a lot of the
ideas for the book.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
It goes inside the high stakes world of sports books,
prediction markets, everybody who is chasing this ultimate edge of
sports betting has become more and more relevant in all
of our lives. It reveals how gambling is changing not
just sports, but the way we think about risk, probability,
the future. I would say, Simon, over the course of
(01:48):
about eighteen months, I did more than thirty trips reporting
this book. I was in Costa Rica spending time with
a guy who I tracked, over the course of a
baseball season, the biggest baseball betters in the world. I know.
When I was talking to Simon once I told him
how much this guy was betting on his own of
his own money, and he was He was pretty blown away.
(02:11):
I went to the Sticks of Pennsylvania. I spent time
with the guys who uncovered the Jhontay Porter gambling scandal and.
Speaker 2 (02:19):
Sort of tracked how they do their jobs.
Speaker 1 (02:22):
I was with a guy who over the past year
has become one of the highest volume traders of sports
on Calshie. He's done half a billion in volume on
Calshi trading on sports. He's always a top the leader
boards for Calshi Trading, and then I spent a lot
of time with a guy who has been over the
(02:47):
past decade, one of the biggest NFL prop betters in
the country, and we talked a lot about how.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
He's achieved what he's achieved. Listen. I loved reporting this book.
Speaker 1 (02:58):
I loved getting even deep into the sports betting world
that I didn't think I could get even deeper into.
I would love it if you all pre ordered this
book between now and whence it comes out in January
twenty twenty seven. The hotterest part of doing a book
isn't writing the book. It's letting people know the book
exists and then getting momentum like the pre orders mean
(03:21):
so much, so I appreciate anyone who can dive in.
Go to read the number dot com preordered if you
do a lot of bonuses. Number one a special extra chapter,
a bonus chapter that won't be in the book. Simon
has read it. Matt Mitchell has read it. It is
about a day that I spent with Simon where we
(03:44):
talked about the glory of what he does, the sacrifices
of what he does. It was a blast of a day.
Roman around Philly and going to a Phillies game. So
there's a lot of stuff to unpacked there about how
Simon and I first got together as well. So you'll
get that which you're not going to get unless you
pre order the book, and all season long you're going
to get an invite to a pre order only discord.
(04:10):
We'll talk bet in, we'll talk picks, all that good stuff.
Every week during the NFL season, the discord is going
to choose a bet that we are going to make
on the show. It's going to be voted for in
the discord. I'm going to use comments from people in
the discord. They're going to be real, become a real
part of the show over the course of the season,
(04:31):
and then I'll make the bets with my own money.
Whatever we win, we're donating to charity. And before everyone says,
well what if you lose, I'm donating five grand to
charity regardless in honor of this discord. Every book that
I get, every every dollar, every pre order over five thousands,
just another dollar into the kitty. Plus whatever we win
(04:56):
over the course of the year. It's all going to charity.
So go pre order, let's hit that five thousand number.
I hope everyone else check it out. Join the discord conversation.
That conversation will carry into the show. Get the details
on the discord, receive the bonus chapter, go to read
the Number dot com.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
Thank you very much for your indulgence.
Speaker 1 (05:21):
Simon, thanks for listening, buddy.
Speaker 3 (05:26):
I'm excited chat. I honestly, I couldn't didn't even remember
you actually interviewing me for the book. That's how good
you are at your job. I just remember we went
to a game, we hung out for a day. I
think you had a note pad or I don't know
if you're on your phone, whatever it was. You're so
good to your job. I never thought this was an
interview until after the fact. We were like, thanks again
for doing that for me, Like, what did I just do?
(05:47):
Then we just just hang out and go to a
Feels game.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
So Ghost, well, thank you very much, and thanks for
doing it with me. I appreciate it.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
Simon's the only person in who I interviewed who I
actually let the chapter about him, just because we're good
buddies and I want to make sure he saw it.
But I hope everyone checks it out. You can pre
order the book and read the number dot com. Let's
get down to some business, buddy, because it's part four
of our annual eight part Division by Division NFL betting previews.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
Moving on to the AFC West, I think.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
It's the most intriguing division in football because, like as
you've said, are people sleeping on the Chiefs. Is Mike
McDaniel going to change Justin Herbert and that Chargers offense
like Fernando Mendoza Mania? When will it take effect in
Las Vegas? And then of course the Broncos a game
(06:42):
away from the Super Bowl. Maybe they would have made
it if bo Nix hadn't been injured. So there is
a lot, a lot to unpack. Let's set the stage
here a little bit. Chiefs ten and a half season
win totals minus one fifty to the under Chargers nine
and a half minus one forty five or the over
(07:03):
Broncos nine and a half minus one twenty to the
over Raiders five and a half minus one forty five
to the over. A lot of steam on the Raiders, Simon, Let's.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
Start with the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (07:18):
I'm not even going to ask you a question at
this point. I think you and I are aligned, but
we've been talking about the Chiefs so much during the
offseason and Patrick Mahomes clearly it's trending towards him expecting
to be able to play in Week one. Have you
started to see movement that represents expectations that he's going
(07:38):
to be playing and healthy for this team.
Speaker 3 (07:43):
Yeah? I felt like, what was it three to two,
three months ago, and that the Week one lines came out,
that's when people not started checking in on Mahomes. But
it felt like up to that point it was all
just Chargers talk. Right. The Chargers were in the favor
for this division. They had the highest win total. I mean,
I could go on a whole another rant about I
(08:03):
don't know if you saw our guy Bill Barnwell had
an article that I.
Speaker 1 (08:08):
Was gonna I texted with Barnwell about it this morning,
and I used it as a reference in the YouTube
comments that I was responding to from some people yesterday
and today. I thought it was brilliant, absolutely brilliant. Oh
my god, do you not agree? Do you want to
explain the the story or do you want me to
do it?
Speaker 3 (08:27):
You could explain it because you talked to the man.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
All right.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
So Barnwell did a column that came out yesterday and
I loved it. I thought it was like the epitome
of how sports should be covered. Barnwell looked at the
teams with the biggest Super Bowl preseason odds to win,
meaning the delta between them and the team behind them
(08:53):
was bigger than anyone else. He did the fifteen biggest
from the past twenty five years. Only two of those
fifteen teams went on to win the Super Bowl. A
bunch of them didn't even make the playoffs. And if
you look at the I think it was seven or
eight before you got to a team that actually won
(09:14):
the Super Bowl. In terms of how short I guess
or how much their expectation was that they were going
to win. They were a super team. Everyone believed it.
The first seven or eight teams didn't win the Super Bowl.
It was all around the context of the Rams being
the super team, which we've been talking about all off season,
like there's just no value there and chances are better
(09:35):
that they won't win than they will win. And then
people get mad at us because they point out that
they have this great team, but shit happens, Injuries happen,
mistakes happened.
Speaker 2 (09:43):
Team's creator like Anyways, I thought it was great.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
So even before that, he had a little off camp
comment to someone online of an article he had written
and basically said that Josh Allen to him, was going
to be the quarterback of the All Deck eighteen so
this past decade, so from twenty twenty one obviously until
twenty twenty nine. He said, right now, you can make
an argument for Mahomes or a Lamar, but he would
(10:10):
have Josh Allen as his all decade quarterback. So someone
like me, who I try not to lose my mind
on the show, but I have to defend Mahomes. That's
I have to defend Mahomes on the show. I hate it.
I hate it, but I have to be the reason
of insanity. And I feel like I was in an
island right. I had a fantasy football guy and Rich
on the show talking Josh Allen number one. I had
(10:32):
Josh Alan everywhere. I'd be number one, even Chad said
he was number one. I was losing my mind a
little bit, but thank god, the masses came down on
Bill Barnwell and they were just like, in what world
is Mahomes Who's going through three Super Bowls? One? Two?
Not on the all decade quarterback over Josh Allen. So
it was just good where I feel like fantasy football
(10:53):
has kind of ruined society again. We all agree it
matters what you do between September and December, but you know, Montana,
Tom Brady, no one talks about these guys regular seasons.
It's Super Bowls. It's January and February that matter. So
I think people have left Mahomes for dead. It's starting
to come back a little bit, a little bit chat.
(11:15):
It feels like a public setting to come back to
the Chiefs team now and they are, like you said,
the highest win total in this division. Mahomes has been
in practice. He's looking good, which is I mean the
Daniel Jones Mahomes. All these quarterbacks are coming off major
injuries which even ten years ago would have taken a
year to get right there. They're in practice early working out.
(11:38):
Who knows if it's the stem cell stuff. I have
no idea what's happening with modern medicine, but it's incredible Mahomes. Yeah,
there's little moments where you're like, Okay, he's got a
johnt Ee race on, but he's out there doing what
Mahomes does, which is off angle, tough throws, just incredible
pocket presence. And you look at the Chiefs team, this
might be the best offensive line he's had in the
(12:00):
last five years. I mean, that's crazy to think what
he's done. But it's always been where they've gone cheap,
They've gone cheap at the offensive line. This year they're
not doing it. The D line is incredible. Where they
have gone cheap is obviously their defense. So I think
we're in unison and with at this point this Chiefs team,
it's like, Okay, do you believe in Mahomes, you believe
in being healthy with Andy Reid? You have him in
(12:21):
a weaker You know the fact of their division, they
were in third place, it's an easier schedule. How do
you not throw a bet on this Chiefs team? It's
just at minus ten and a half minus one fifty
to the ovender. Okay, I'm going to a positive number
that I'm gonna plus number taken the over. I'm gonna
ben my Homes eleven wins, So you know the books, yes,
(12:44):
we could be walking right into it. I haven't projected
eleven and a half wins. I have them a full
game over. This win total. They're gonna peoplere gonna fare
ou pretty Quickly' two teams. I really like this division.
The Chiefs are one of them. It's just you've been
on Mahomes, You've been on Kenneth Walker. This run game
really changing things. And you know again, me and Chat
are the biggest fantasy guys. Cyrus Allen, He's gonna be
(13:05):
a name the general public's gonna learn. This is a
wide receiver that just looks the part right now for
this team. So Worthy is missing time, Rice My missing
time for injury. They might have found a stud in
this past draft. And that's that's what Mahomes is gonna do, right,
He's gonna find a guy. If this guy can stay healthy,
he's gonna become Mahomes' guy. He just cannot keep going
through Travis Kelsey, Who's what You're thirty thirty six years
(13:26):
old now. So I just look at this team as
people are kind of like this might be an in
between year. I feel like last year was that. I
feel like last year was a year from hell. The
year before they were fifteen to one on one score games.
Last year they were one to ten Chat in one
score games. And he's got injured. So yeah, like, I
think we're in unison here where it's like it's the
Mahomes factor. He's not calculable to most people's models. It's
(13:49):
gonna skew things where well, if he gets twelve or
thirteen wins, no, I would not be shocked. But it's
like my model can't predict those one score type of games.
What we're looking at is just the law of that.
So to me, this just feels like a team that
you know, at worst Gase Mahomes goes eight and five
and one score games. You just we just don't see
him having an insanely horrible losing record. Last year was
(14:12):
a year from hell. Me and Chad I feel like
we're the same unison is. We usually fade those type
of seasons the next year. If you have a good
quarterback with a good scheme, a good head coach at
a good organization, you always bounce, always been on the
bounce back. So yeah, I don't know if I'm gonna
go heavy on their division odds like I have in
the previous year's stat but definitely taking that over right now.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
At a plus number plus one seventy to win the
division plus six fifty to win the conference, thirteen to
one to win the Super Bowl. You know, it's been
years since the Chiefs were longer than ten to one
to win the Super Bowl, and they weren't one of
the top two or three teams in terms of the
shortest odds. You started the conversation asking about Barnwell's story,
(14:51):
which I absolutely loved, but I you didn't you commented
on one of his tweets. You didn't comment on the story.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
Did you have to do the story?
Speaker 3 (15:01):
No, it's in the story he's breaking down the bills.
He has a little that's when people cut out chat.
It was a big, big deal where it's like again,
it was just an off fan comment by him, where
he's just breaking down why he likes the Bills and
how great Josh Allen is and then he just froze
in there and Josh Allen is probably gonna be on
my old decade team as a NUMBERLD quarterback. You can
make the argument for Mahomes or a little more. I
(15:22):
think everyone to me to took a one deep breath
wre like whoa whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa whoa. There is
no argument.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
I got to reread the beginning of that story, because
we might be talking about two different stories because.
Speaker 2 (15:35):
I don't remember that from the story yesterday.
Speaker 1 (15:37):
Whatever it is, just go read Bill Barnwell because he's
brilliant and does things that are controversial and challenge your
thoughts on football, and that's the whole point, and if
it riles people up, all the better. More importantly, he
made a very clear point. There's no value on betting
the Los Angeles Rams, and there is no value in
betting super teams. So anyone who's you have to do this,
(16:01):
or has been listening to the show about the NFC
West and saying, you guys are crazy, there is evidence,
There is math to back it up.
Speaker 3 (16:09):
There is Chatty said there's value betting them to miss,
like what we did.
Speaker 2 (16:12):
To miss to miss the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (16:14):
There is value, but it's not the value these people
are thinking of. So that's exactly right, that's backing us up.
I'll definitely agree with you on that.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
LA Chargers.
Speaker 1 (16:23):
They were the team everyone is psyched about before Mahomes
came back and started looking like he would be able
to play in Week one. Second consecutive year they lose
the season, They lose in the wild card round. They
looked terrible against the Patriots. Justin Herbert again flailing in
the playoffs, plus one eighty five to win the division,
(16:44):
eight to one to win the conference, seventeen ish to
one to win the Super Bowl. It's Justin Herbert's seventh
season in the NFL. You could argue that the thing
they did to improve his chances wasn't on the field.
Speaker 2 (17:03):
It was bringing in Mike McDaniel.
Speaker 1 (17:06):
And we have seen so much about the way he
suggested his footwork, and we've heard so much about how
they are adjusting the offense for him to get the
ball out quicker. At the end of the day, do
we believe these things can actually come to fruition or
does Justin Herbert become the guy who's six', six built
like An adonis and has his fiance playing with his
(17:28):
hair on the field and he's just going to believe
that because of who he, is old habits will come
back and he will hold the ball too, long try
to make, plays and this team fails in the.
Speaker 3 (17:39):
Playoffs, yeah it's it's a really fun, team a fun
team to, debate AND i think it's very. Telling the
books have moved them down to nine and a half
at the wind total because they weren't doing and they have.
Adjusted even THOUGH i would say there the charger or
a media, darling, RIGHT i think a lot of people
(18:00):
right now are drinking the kool. Aid The herbert hype
is hitting a crucial point here where people are talking
to him FOR, mvp and it is back to what
you just talked, about the upgrade they have AT. Oc
they might have gone for one of the worst run
blocking schemes to now one of the best in all THE. Nfl,
Right and he could be a great coach, too because
he's going to Challenge Justin, herbert where you, know not
(18:23):
That Justin herbert doesn't get. CHALLENGE i Think carl junders
them in some. Ways but he needed someone to work
on his. Footwork he did need somebody to be in
his ear being, like hey, man it's you do throw
a beautiful pass, downfield but that checkdown that you don't
take on third and six and you're just bombing a
downfield now we're. Punting he needs to correct those. Mistakes.
Herbert no one doubts his arm. Skill it's him always
(18:46):
trying to do too. Much he's always in the survival,
mode which is something that's happened to him just throughout his.
Career it's what he's had to do to make this team.
Work so if they're in another, DIVISION i really would
like to charge this. Team my biggest issue is they
feel like a fantasy team if you're doing Best ball
whatever type of. TEAMS i love building out The chargers.
Right get the running, backs get the wide, receivers get
the tight. ENDS i mean they have three good tight.
(19:08):
Ends Like najoku Left, cleveland he went there to be
a tight. End like they have a really deep wide receiver,
room really deep running back, room really deep. Receivers our
question is just going to be that offensive line and
what that defense is going to be like Without. Mentory
and you, Know i've made a no. SECRET i Think
mintory is one of the best. Coaches the fact that
The ravens got, him it's made me really high on
(19:30):
This ravens. Team it's also made me lower on This
chargers team BECAUSE i think it's gonna be a big.
DEAL i think his defense is gonna be very. EFFECTED
i DON'T i believe people have put too much stock into.
Horribot do you Think harball is a great? Coach he
always gets ten wins out of his. Teams he's just
he's one of those guys that does. That but it's
gonna be interesting what he's like, losing what he's lost on,
(19:50):
defense what he's getting an offense. Here SO i think
gonna be a really fun fantasy, team just you, know betting.
Wise long, TERM i feel like it's the year BEFORE
i Think i'll be much higher next year on This
charters team THAT i am gonna be on this. YEAR
i Just i'm more confident if they had a year
or two in this offense and this defense was able
to improve without mentor because it's just like THEIR d
(20:11):
line Is Khluil mack really scaring? You like they just
don't have guys in THEIR d line that really scare.
You and a division that we're even talked about bon next,
yet but there's really good quarterbacks. Division you need guys
up front to get pressure on these guys or they're
gonna beat. YOU i, mean The chiefs to me just
an even team as This chargers team THAT i Think
broncos won't pay for a much better. Team SO i
(20:33):
hate to be the guy to say, it but it's
do we think this is gonna be a team better
than a wild. CARD i just. DON'T i just. CAN'T
i can't put money to seam them with this, division
and there's another team's division that's better value to me
in The Broncos So. Senior right, now if you want
to bet they're over win total at nine and a,
HALF i don't have a problem with. IT i lean
to them being nine to. EIGHT i go towards the,
ender so for, me it's no bet. There but just
(20:55):
this feels like another year of media hype for Just
herbert head of the. Season it's just another nine and,
eight ten and seventh type of season Where i'm not
going to be too hor, known but it's just the division's,
brutal and it's just really hard to see them becoming
the one or two, seed which is what they need
to do to win this.
Speaker 1 (21:09):
Division The chargers are a fascinating. TEAM i think last
year we were talking about The chargers And harbaugh And
barnwell might have, said it feels like The. Chargers if
you're betting The chargers last year in twenty twenty, five
you're betting on, them excuse me a year. Early now
(21:32):
you're saying it to your early partly because of the
new offense And Justin herbert getting. Comfortable and your point
about them being a fantasy team is fascinating because that's
been their rep for forty five. Years go back to
when they were In San diego and it Was Dan
(21:53):
fouts And Kellen winslow And James lofton and then when
and It's Philip rivers And, Ladanian tomlinson And Antonio.
Speaker 2 (22:04):
Gates and now they got Another all world.
Speaker 1 (22:07):
Quarterback who's going to put up the type of numbers
that have him contend for The hall Of. Fame and
he's going to do it with some fabulous weapons when
he Had Keenan allen and some developing.
Speaker 2 (22:18):
Weapons but is he going to win?
Speaker 1 (22:21):
Anything AND i think that's why you're starting to see
some of these numbers come. Down and all of this
is about psychology and perception and what the market is.
Doing AND i think the more people are Seeing Patrick,
mahomes the less people are inclined to buy Into Justin.
HERBERT i think that's that's what the market is telling
(22:42):
us right. Now AND i, agree by the, way like
sometimes you find clarity in your thoughts and your, opinions
AND i think we're both finding clarity on The chargers right.
Speaker 3 (22:50):
Now, YEAH i just couldn't believe people are actually betting,
Them like you're really betting them at seventeen to one
to win The Super. Bowl it feels like, horrible horrible
odds to be taking the charter. Seam i'm pretty sure
The eagles were twenty to one just a couple of weeks.
Ago it wouldn't you much rather bet a team who's
been there before an easisier division an their team it's
never won a playoff game in a really hard division
at seventy to one seventeen to, One so that's WHAT
(23:12):
i mean where it's like public receptions just made them.
Unbettable it's like they've just slowly becoming The. Cowboys the
Media darling and The cowboys were right, now The cowboys
never had value because they've just been bet up so.
Much the same. Year for The, chargers they were just
a normal team in this. Division twenty five to. One
thirty to one makes a ton of more. Sense seventeen
to one makes zero. Sense they were at fourteen to.
(23:34):
One so once again they've been dropping because other money's
been going to other places for. Betters AND i still
don't think there's value, There so LIKE i, SAID i
JUST i DON'T i don't want to bet that at this.
Point and you, know we'll see about This charge. Team
It's i'm excited for them because they're such a fun,
team but it's LIKE i think we all rightly so
have our doubts about them for many, reasons and it
(23:56):
all goes back, to you, know can they Support? Herbert
can they keep those if it's a linement, healthy because
you know we saw last year he did so, much
was so. Little they have the, weapons they, have the offensive,
line everyone's taking to stay. Healthy it really is going
to fall back to that, defense in my.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
Opinion so let's play a fun game for a, second
because we're going to talk about The. Broncos, obviously The
broncos had the number one, seed they had a fourteen
to three.
Speaker 2 (24:19):
Season they Beat buffalo.
Speaker 1 (24:21):
In that dramatic game in overtime in the divisional, round
and then they lost in a really ugly game to
The patriots in THE afc title game where Bo nicks didn't,
play and you could, argue if he's, playing that is
an entirely different game going both, ways, right The patriots
would have had to, adjust so it wouldn't be a
ten to seven. Slugfest they're plus two ten to win the,
(24:45):
division ten to one to win the, conference twenty, one
twenty to one to win the Super. Bowl and that's
outside the top. Ten, Simon what the actual fuck? Like
this team that was number one seed in the conference
last year is now considered to be the third best
(25:06):
team by the odds in the. DIVISION i can accept.
REGRESSION i can accept there were some miracle. COMEBACKS i
can accept that there will be an ability to adjust
to What bonix is good. At but come, on you
got like one of the best coaches in the, league
a team that you could argue overachieved and might actually
(25:27):
be that might have been a year. Early everything for
them is third best in THE Afc. West are you kidding?
Speaker 2 (25:34):
Me that is?
Speaker 1 (25:35):
Insane insane? Comment and THEN i got a question for.
Speaker 3 (25:40):
You, yeah and we were both Done Ray when we
first talked opening, lines we couldn't believe when they came.
OUT i think their original win total was, nine so
the books opened them at, nine and we were both
in shock of, like what are we? Missing are we
stepping into? Something and you, know the more GUYS i
talked to other professionals are just, like, well look at
their one square, record, right we just talked About. Mahomes
(26:01):
what was? It one to ten and one score games this.
Team that's something that never been done IN nfl. History
there were fourteen and one in games they were trailing
in the fourth. Quarter so last year they had this
incredible stretch with Bon nicks kept winning games in the fourth,
quarter and we remember those. GAMES a couple of those
games were better past them where he would take the
ugly dog and all of a, sudden Bon nicks would
(26:23):
just have these incredible fourth quarters and have these comebacks
and he would always, cover but they were finding ways to.
Win it was truly. Incredible and it's just you look
at This denber team and you, know top five onto
the offensive, line top five, defense and then they're Bringing.
Wattle so now you Have, wattle you Have Sutton, bryant
might be this other receiver they. Have you look at
their running back room WITH. Jk, Dobbins it's, like, okay
(26:45):
if he goes, down we HAVE. Rj. Harvey we have
this kid Named coleman who could step up and be
a running. Back so you, Know Sean payton's really put
his fingerprint on this, team and they keep putting out
that way where they have the defense they really need
to attack the defense that much of the. OFFSEASON A
wattle part is such a huge upgrade we're not talking
enough about where it's, Like, okay if you're believing in
Bo nick's taking the next, step you went out there
(27:07):
and got him a number one. Receiver that's What wattle.
Is wattle.
Speaker 1 (27:10):
Is what's interesting About wattle is he's a number one
receiver who's a really, good for lack of a better,
term possession.
Speaker 2 (27:19):
Receiver.
Speaker 1 (27:20):
Right he can be complimentary to What sutton can, do
and a lot of times that's what Bo nicks was
missing last, year like someone who he can be comfortable
with when he doesn't have to unleash it and can
throw those shorter.
Speaker 2 (27:32):
Routes so great, pickup great.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
Pickup in just another, way pick your, Poison like if
you take him, Away Sean pain will have a chess
piece another move against the counter that and then when
you slide that protection over To sutton again will burn
you With. Wattle you just can't deny A wattle. Speed
and that's Why i'm so excited to seeing this offense
where it's, like, okay we Saw wattle Did miami and
with you, Know Tyreek hill and you, know really. Impressive
(27:59):
but the big thing haunted him was he was just
inconsistent gain the game with either a soft issue soft
issue issues where he was, like, OKAY i got a
bat ham shring and he leaves in the middle of
the second, quarter plays plays a bunch of, games but
he just kept leaving the middle of. Games that's always
gonna be a question with A lottle so that that
that would be a definitely hesitation. Him but look at
the seam, overall it's do you believe in Bow? Nick sure.
(28:20):
Not we had the same conversation last, year do you
do you believe? Him bow and both of us were,
like we see, it but how can you go Against
mahomes in this? Division we just we just were never
going to pick them for and put a lot of
money into. It and this, year how do you not
bet them in the? Division? Odds, like just looking at,
him you, know this is the best value in this. Division.
RIGHT i don't know if they can duplicate be in
(28:41):
the one seed once, again but should they have the
third worst odds in this division Behind mahomes And, herbert.
Speaker 2 (28:47):
It makes no.
Speaker 1 (28:47):
Sense, well that's WHAT i was going to ask, you
if you if you could line up The Chiefs division,
odds Chief Super bowl, Odds Chargers, Division Chargers Super bowl,
Odds Broncos division, Odds Broncos Super bowl, Adds so don't
Forget broncos basically two to one to win The, division
(29:08):
twenty to one to win The Super, Bowl chargers plus
one eighty five to win The, division seventeen to one
to win The Super, bowl and Then chiefs plus one
seventy to win The division thirteen to one to Win Super.
Speaker 2 (29:19):
Bowl if you're.
Speaker 1 (29:20):
Drafting those six, odds how do you draft? Them BECAUSE
i wonder if you AND i would be on the
same page about number, one BECAUSE i feel LIKE i
have a lean that's different than.
Speaker 2 (29:32):
Yours for number, One.
Speaker 3 (29:34):
I'm still Gonna i'm still going to bet The chiefs
just because that's to, me that's.
Speaker 1 (29:37):
Good which one thirteen to ONE i super?
Speaker 3 (29:42):
Bet, Yeah i've bet my Home.
Speaker 2 (29:43):
Super bowl ads just, okay you know, what you know, what.
Speaker 3 (29:46):
ANYTHING i get ten to one or better on my,
Homes i'm gonna take that.
Speaker 2 (29:48):
Bet then we're on the same.
Speaker 1 (29:49):
Page because IF i were DRAFTING i would take The
chiefs thirteen to one first of those six.
Speaker 3 (29:55):
Numbers and it's no disrespect to you, know and This denver.
Team it's just we're thinking long, term and you, know
if it's Bone nicks Versus mahomes in THE Afc championship,
game mean chatty, betting we ain't betting Bon. Nicks we're
gonna Take mahomes there every. Time so it's not it's
not so much we're against, him it's just it's hard
(30:16):
to believe him shown up in that moment out playing
a guy Like, mahomes where we've seen guys Like Josh
allen are a little more falter and they have much more
skill than Bon. Nicks so you, know looking at this,
year it's JUST i can't get over The Denver bronco
disrespect and the effect that they're the third team this.
DIVISION i really feel like they should be talk with
The chiefs at the top of this. DIVISION i get
(30:38):
what pros are saying here that they're, like, oh we're
built we're built in the, regression no, doubt we're all
doing the same. Thing but at nine and a half
wins and minus won Twenty, CHAD i, mean come, ON
i think we got to bet their over win. Total
it's just If bois is, healthy if this team plays
the way we think they should. Play it's not a
(30:58):
guarantee of ten, wins but pretty damn. It Like Sean
bayton is one of the best coaches in this, league
and you give him this much talent on this deep
of a. Team if they can just stay, healthy there's
no doubt they'll be in the playoffs and even maybe
potentially win this. Division so, YEAH i felt, like again
every division has an easy, bet this one felt like
the easy bet to. Me just take their over win.
(31:19):
Total you don't have to be any other. Ones you
can stay away from homes with injuries if you. Want
Bone knicks looks fully, healthy good to. GO i think
it Was Aubert brewer was in their camp just talking
about how you would never know he's had any type
of issues with his legs after what was at foot
surgery last. YEAR i think it was only an eight
week to like ten week heal. Process so he's been
(31:40):
doing their off season, programs he's been good to. Go
no restriction on Bon, Nicks So i'd be very. Excited
IF i was A Denver broncas, fan and when you
have a team that loses THE Nfc championship game because
their quarterback was, hurt that is an amazing motivator the entire,
offseason head into the season because they feel like they were,
wrong they were. UNLUCKY i would be, very very excited
(32:00):
IF i always a Dever broco. Fan this just feys
a great team that's not being talked, about that has
all the motivation in the world that a lot of
these teams have as. Well they did weren't, there they
didn't taste, it they weren't that, close and feel like
it was taken away from. Them so, yeah this is
Everything i've. Read a highly highly renovated team this.
Speaker 1 (32:16):
Year way too much regression on This broncos, Team way
too much hype on The, Chargers way too much regression
on The. BRONCOS i have one boone to pick with
the media. Community you talked About Albert breer doing, it
our Guy Ben solac did.
Speaker 2 (32:33):
It Colin cowherd did.
Speaker 1 (32:35):
It all these guys who go to training camps and
come out saying about, players he lost fifteen, pounds he looks,
amazing he's streaking across the, field or he doesn't look
like he even had a torn achilles or his foot looks.
Speaker 2 (32:51):
Fine none of us are.
Speaker 1 (32:53):
Doctors none of us can watch and really understand anything
that's going on in practice, field in training. Camp with
twenty minutes of, OBSERVATION i feel LIKE i get THE
i get all these alerts FROM espn about you, know
from beat reporters that are hyping up their, team and.
Speaker 2 (33:10):
A little of it, manners a little bit fucking. Manners
until the season, starts it's all. Irrelevant it.
Speaker 3 (33:16):
Doesn't at the same, Time i'm not gonna say the
quarterback who was A CHICAGO i think The able people
know What i'm talking. About i'll never forget a guy
WHO i work with who said he went to a
practice And he'll never forget he's talking to this quarterback
and he could just smell the booze coming out of
his skin and that hot sun and just how like those.
Are LIKE i think back to those days where you
(33:37):
would never have. That nowadays you don't go to practice
and a quarterback Smells sunday. Morning how things have just
changed where back and THEN i think it is to
get back to like these guys wouldn't work out in
the off, season they would get in shape in. Camp
now these guys never get out of. Shape they are, working,
yeah and it's just it's just so different. Now So
i'm with, you where it's like everyone's in the best
(33:57):
shape of their. Life no one takes a day. Off
it's the league has changed in. It what's twenty years,
ago where guys could come smell and come smell Like sunday.
Morning now these guys are all. Professionals they wear their,
wristbands they know their sleep, schedule they they what they've.
Like you, know they drank the day. Before it's all
down to a science. Now So i'm with. You you
don't gain much going to these practice like you used To.
Speaker 1 (34:18):
Simon the news is when someone looks, shitty not when
someone looks. Great that's my. Point anyone looks. Great Las
Vegas raiders terrible season With Pete, carroll terrible season With Gino,
smith missed the playoffs for the twenty first time in
twenty three. SEASONS i can run through the. Odds there's
no value in any of. Them twenty to one to
(34:40):
win the, division seventy five to one to win the,
conference one hundred and fifty to one to win The Super.
Bowl they Added Clint kubiak as their new head. Coach
his first, Season they Added mike, McCoy they added a
new defensive. Coordinator Kirk cousin's probably going to. Start it's
really about. Win Is Fernando mendoza gonna? Play the one
(35:06):
THING i would say here and When i'm hearing people
talk about and this could just, be you, know training camp, euphoria.
Optimism everybody wants to root for, something right the over
five and a, Half people seeing Brock, bauers people Seeing
Kirk cousins one more year removed from an, injury people
(35:27):
Seeing Ashton, genty people seeing that offensive line being healthier
than it was last. Year should anybody be thinking about
the over five and a.
Speaker 3 (35:37):
Half, No if you want to bet their over five
and a, half just bet them week, one like bet
their money Line week. ONE i think they Played Miami week.
One make that bet because if they don't win that,
game they ain't no way they're getting to six. Wins
so to, me that would put that would be the
GAME i. Take BUT i HONESTLY i wouldn't do it
BECAUSE i actually Love Miami week. ONE i think there
(35:58):
are three and a half point dollar against This vegas.
Team but, Yeah i'd be excited IF i was A vegas.
Team but it's the same thing where it's, like you
guys are two three years. Away you're a, horrible, horrible rant. Organization,
everything everything you guys, do it always ends up. Wrong
can frame A mendoza change all? That that's the. Hope
we love this. Kid we think he has a credible
amount of, Talent he's got the personalities proof For. Vegas
(36:20):
LIKE i think it was YESTERDAY i saw something about
it Was Max crosby how he begged his owner or
maybe he's begged HIS gm to Take Jalen carter if
the Other carter would be dead if he got drafted
by The Las Vegas. Raiders that never would have. Worked
they're like the exact opposite organization to draft In Jalen. Quarter,
yeah let's Put Jalen carter In Sin city With Max
(36:42):
crosby as his Mentor, uh that would have been a.
Disaster so there are in a really unique situation where
it's like you have to find the right personalities to
be able to thrive in that. City Because chad, Knows
like if you if you don't know what you're stepping,
Into vegas can literally swallow you. Up like it's got
every every bad temptation you can possibly have in. Life
(37:04):
they got it times a thousand beautiful, women, parties you, know,
temptations all these things that you know during a season
you don't want your players dealing. With it's all. There
the fact that they Got fana Mendoz Are Kirk, cousins
two guys, that, like you, know you think of them
at the club at one am on A sunday after a. Loss,
right these are two guys that they'll be in the
(37:26):
building after a. Loss they'll be either hitting lifts or watching,
film like these are the two exact Quarterbacks brady's dreamed
up leading this. Team so the pillars are there the,
building the building blocks are, there but win total, Wise
I'm i'm happy to take that. Under just in this,
division in THE Afc, Conference like they don't really have easy,
Games like people Think miami is an easy. Game you're
(37:47):
it's this thing always talking About you're the easy game To. Miami,
Well miami fans are going through their schedule they have
this is a win for, them just Like vegas think
they're gonna roll This miami. Team so it's like we
talll a got time two bad. Teams you really don't
know what we're gonna. GET i usually trust the veteran quarterback,
there so you, Know kirk they say and all the right.
Things Is kirk's going to be their. STARTER i have
a hard time thing that For man And mendoza comes
(38:08):
out and it's just great in camp you play. Them
we have the data like number one picks don't. Sit
they just do not. Sit even going back to the,
nineties right that's when things started really changing That before,
then if you're a number one, pick it didn't matter
they were going to sit. YOU i, MEAN i Think
Troy aikman played for The cowboys and went like one
in fifteen started his. Career that was the. Outlier they
(38:29):
just do not really. Please you're not playing on one picks,
now they're just, like, okay we're one and, seven let's
put the kid. In at some point you're just going
to put him. In So i'm really excited to see
what they do With. Mendoza you know Everything i've read
him And kubacker in, sync totally locked. In you, know
basically their whole offensive schemes around Rock, bowers which they
(38:51):
should be like that guy probably the best tight end
of football, already tons of. TALENT i love. It like Scheme,
kuback scheme your whole off that's around the. Kid and
you know gent he could be a great complimentary. PIECE
i know they they Get. LINDENBAUM i know they went
out and got a. Center, yeah you know that's a big.
Deal like. That you have the highest paid center of. Football,
now you have a young, quarterback you have a young running,
(39:14):
back a really great young tight. End the pieces are all.
THERE i think we all agree like What gruden, did
like that. Defense draft, wise you just go through all their.
Drafts they have nothing. Defensively their defense is so. BAD
i know they try to address them with a, fregency
but just in this division you look at they're just
they're so far behind these other three. Teams AND i
(39:36):
just can't find a reason to tell people to bet this.
YEAR i, mean seventy five to one to win the.
Conference that's just such a waste of. Money there's just no.
World those odds are still too short to. Me, well
this team is built up to be So, yeah it's
not a fun, pick it's a boring, pick BUT i
am going to be on their. UNDER i have this
team at four, wins so you, know a game and
a half is pretty big. Discrepancy SO i will be betting.
(39:57):
It BUT i get what the books a, junior they're
kind of heading here where if it Is, kirk you
could get them six. Wins Like, kirk, say good veteran
quarterback that at the end of, games they're going to
be close, games like they're not a horrible team that's
gonna get blown. Out Can kirk steal a couple wins
here and. There, Yeah i'm just really bet on for
An aame And dooz becoming their. Starter that's really what
this bet. Is and once he does come in there
In November, december when all these teams are a peak,
(40:20):
performance him getting one or two wins would be pretty
big stretch to me For Vernana, Mendoza SO i feel
pretty comfortable ticking this under right.
Speaker 1 (40:28):
Now all, Right so for THE Afc, WEST i think
we're in. Agreement we really like The chiefs thirteen to,
one that value for them to win The Super. BOWL
i think we're also in agreement that we think that
The broncos are way. Undervalued take the over nine and a.
Half we think The chiefs are way, overvalued probably a
pass on their win, total but also a pass just
on the value of Their Super bowl odds at seventeen
(40:52):
to One simon's, show we're going to, come oh, yeah go.
Speaker 3 (40:55):
Ahead, Today we're just you don't like those odds were giving.
OUT i always, say if you want to go way,
Longer chiefs to beat The eagles one hundred to, one
you bet a dollar one hundred dollars right now on
just The Super bowl matchup with The chiefs to beat
The eagles in The Super, bowl that, one you, know
if you want to go really, CHALK i think it's
sixty to one, Still chiefs to beat The rams in
(41:15):
The Super, bowl which, day and we already talked about
there's no value betting The rams straight, up but if
you want to throw them in a couple of these,
bets Right rams Versus, chiefs there's some value. There so,
yeah sixty to one if you're want to do, That
chiefs to beat The rams In Super. Bowl BUT i
really like That, Egles BUT i think both them and
The eagles are just the bottom of the value you're
going to find on these two teams coming off the
years they had. Before so, yeah if you don't like
thirty to ONE ifc For mahomes coming off of major knee,
(41:39):
injury one hundred to one to beat The eagles in
The Super.
Speaker 1 (41:41):
BOWL i love that, Bet. Simon it's on my list
AND i made. IT i like The rams one. Too
it's a really good. Idea we've talked about that a few,
times so be. Listening don't don't do WHAT i did
last year And Tyler shuck this Where simon, says, Hey Tyler,
shock two hundred and, one Win rookie of The, year
and then the rest of the, season you're sweating it
because you didn't make the bet as you see it
(42:03):
go down to, like you, know two to.
Speaker 2 (42:06):
One, uh just take a little. Taste all.
Speaker 1 (42:09):
Right we're gonna come back with our NEXT nfl division
betting preview, tope the A Fc. North this has Been Sharper,
square part of The volume podcast. Network watch or listen
on YouTube At Sharper. Square don't forget pre order The.
Number i'm super proud of the, book worked really hard
on it's it's really really. FUN i hope people will
(42:31):
give it a give it a.
Speaker 2 (42:32):
Look pre order. It read The.
Speaker 1 (42:34):
Number dot, Com join the invite Only Discord when you do,
it get the free bonus, chapter the Exclusive bonus. Chapter
read The number dot com like this, Video subscribe with
the channel downloads Some, Spotify Apple pods wherever you get your.
Pods rate, review, subscribe leave us five, stars say whatever you.
Want feedback is a gift until next.
Speaker 2 (42:55):
TIME i love.
Speaker 3 (42:56):
YOU i Think i'm a. Life all the, investment if
it's been made, right it's like putting money in the.
Bank now it's time to start we. Grawing mm. Hmm
Welcome to Sharper Swear, part of the Volume podcast Network.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
This is the betting show.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
That makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys
pay attention. I am Chad Nolman and I am joined
as always by my co host, my bff, my companion,
my Campadre Professional Better.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Simon Hunter Ello. Simon Chad. How are we doing, dude, massive,
Massive news today? Are you ready?
Speaker 1 (00:31):
I have mentioned, I have mentioned on this show many
many times in the past eighteen months that I've been
working on a new book about the world of sports
betting for Penguin Press. Today, on this show, with our
beloved community, we are officially announcing that The Number, Chasing
the Biggest Edge in Sports will be out on January twelfth,
(00:55):
twenty twenty seven. Matt Mitchell is throwing up a look
at the cover. For those who are watching it on
YouTube right now. You can go to Read the Number
to check out more. You can pre order the book
at readth Number dot com. I'm going to tell you
about all the cool stuff you get if you pre order.
I wanted to announce it on the show because our
(01:17):
audience has been with us for a very, very.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
Long time and kind of inspired a lot of the
ideas for the book.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
It goes inside the high stakes world of sports books,
prediction markets, everybody who is chasing this ultimate edge of
sports betting has become more and more relevant in all
of our lives. It reveals how gambling is changing not
just sports, but the way we think about risk, probability,
the future. I would say, Simon, over the course of
(01:48):
about eighteen months, I did more than thirty trips reporting
this book. I was in Costa Rica spending time with
a guy who I tracked, over the course of a
baseball season, the biggest baseball betters in the world. I know.
When I was talking to Simon once I told him
how much this guy was betting on his own of
his own money, and he was He was pretty blown away.
(02:11):
I went to the Sticks of Pennsylvania. I spent time
with the guys who uncovered the Jhontay Porter gambling scandal and.
Speaker 2 (02:19):
Sort of tracked how they do their jobs.
Speaker 1 (02:22):
I was with a guy who over the past year
has become one of the highest volume traders of sports
on Calshie. He's done half a billion in volume on
Calshi trading on sports. He's always a top the leader
boards for Calshi Trading, and then I spent a lot
of time with a guy who has been over the
(02:47):
past decade, one of the biggest NFL prop betters in
the country, and we talked a lot about how.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
He's achieved what he's achieved. Listen. I loved reporting this book.
Speaker 1 (02:58):
I loved getting even deep into the sports betting world
that I didn't think I could get even deeper into.
I would love it if you all pre ordered this
book between now and whence it comes out in January
twenty twenty seven. The hotterest part of doing a book
isn't writing the book. It's letting people know the book
exists and then getting momentum like the pre orders mean
(03:21):
so much, so I appreciate anyone who can dive in.
Go to read the number dot com preordered if you
do a lot of bonuses. Number one a special extra chapter,
a bonus chapter that won't be in the book. Simon
has read it. Matt Mitchell has read it. It is
about a day that I spent with Simon where we
(03:44):
talked about the glory of what he does, the sacrifices
of what he does. It was a blast of a day.
Roman around Philly and going to a Phillies game. So
there's a lot of stuff to unpacked there about how
Simon and I first got together as well. So you'll
get that which you're not going to get unless you
pre order the book, and all season long you're going
to get an invite to a pre order only discord.
(04:10):
We'll talk bet in, we'll talk picks, all that good stuff.
Every week during the NFL season, the discord is going
to choose a bet that we are going to make
on the show. It's going to be voted for in
the discord. I'm going to use comments from people in
the discord. They're going to be real, become a real
part of the show over the course of the season,
(04:31):
and then I'll make the bets with my own money.
Whatever we win, we're donating to charity. And before everyone says,
well what if you lose, I'm donating five grand to
charity regardless in honor of this discord. Every book that
I get, every every dollar, every pre order over five thousands,
just another dollar into the kitty. Plus whatever we win
(04:56):
over the course of the year. It's all going to charity.
So go pre order, let's hit that five thousand number.
I hope everyone else check it out. Join the discord conversation.
That conversation will carry into the show. Get the details
on the discord, receive the bonus chapter, go to read
the Number dot com.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
Thank you very much for your indulgence.
Speaker 1 (05:21):
Simon, thanks for listening, buddy.
Speaker 3 (05:26):
I'm excited chat. I honestly, I couldn't didn't even remember
you actually interviewing me for the book. That's how good
you are at your job. I just remember we went
to a game, we hung out for a day. I
think you had a note pad or I don't know
if you're on your phone, whatever it was. You're so
good to your job. I never thought this was an
interview until after the fact. We were like, thanks again
for doing that for me, Like, what did I just do?
(05:47):
Then we just just hang out and go to a
Feels game.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
So Ghost, well, thank you very much, and thanks for
doing it with me. I appreciate it.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
Simon's the only person in who I interviewed who I
actually let the chapter about him, just because we're good
buddies and I want to make sure he saw it.
But I hope everyone checks it out. You can pre
order the book and read the number dot com. Let's
get down to some business, buddy, because it's part four
of our annual eight part Division by Division NFL betting previews.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
Moving on to the AFC West, I think.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
It's the most intriguing division in football because, like as
you've said, are people sleeping on the Chiefs. Is Mike
McDaniel going to change Justin Herbert and that Chargers offense
like Fernando Mendoza Mania? When will it take effect in
Las Vegas? And then of course the Broncos a game
(06:42):
away from the Super Bowl. Maybe they would have made
it if bo Nix hadn't been injured. So there is
a lot, a lot to unpack. Let's set the stage
here a little bit. Chiefs ten and a half season
win totals minus one fifty to the under Chargers nine
and a half minus one forty five or the over
(07:03):
Broncos nine and a half minus one twenty to the
over Raiders five and a half minus one forty five
to the over. A lot of steam on the Raiders, Simon, Let's.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
Start with the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (07:18):
I'm not even going to ask you a question at
this point. I think you and I are aligned, but
we've been talking about the Chiefs so much during the
offseason and Patrick Mahomes clearly it's trending towards him expecting
to be able to play in Week one. Have you
started to see movement that represents expectations that he's going
(07:38):
to be playing and healthy for this team.
Speaker 3 (07:43):
Yeah? I felt like, what was it three to two,
three months ago, and that the Week one lines came out,
that's when people not started checking in on Mahomes. But
it felt like up to that point it was all
just Chargers talk. Right. The Chargers were in the favor
for this division. They had the highest win total. I mean,
I could go on a whole another rant about I
(08:03):
don't know if you saw our guy Bill Barnwell had
an article that I.
Speaker 1 (08:08):
Was gonna I texted with Barnwell about it this morning,
and I used it as a reference in the YouTube
comments that I was responding to from some people yesterday
and today. I thought it was brilliant, absolutely brilliant. Oh
my god, do you not agree? Do you want to
explain the the story or do you want me to
do it?
Speaker 3 (08:27):
You could explain it because you talked to the man.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
All right.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
So Barnwell did a column that came out yesterday and
I loved it. I thought it was like the epitome
of how sports should be covered. Barnwell looked at the
teams with the biggest Super Bowl preseason odds to win,
meaning the delta between them and the team behind them
(08:53):
was bigger than anyone else. He did the fifteen biggest
from the past twenty five years. Only two of those
fifteen teams went on to win the Super Bowl. A
bunch of them didn't even make the playoffs. And if
you look at the I think it was seven or
eight before you got to a team that actually won
(09:14):
the Super Bowl. In terms of how short I guess
or how much their expectation was that they were going
to win. They were a super team. Everyone believed it.
The first seven or eight teams didn't win the Super Bowl.
It was all around the context of the Rams being
the super team, which we've been talking about all off season,
like there's just no value there and chances are better
(09:35):
that they won't win than they will win. And then
people get mad at us because they point out that
they have this great team, but shit happens, Injuries happen,
mistakes happened.
Speaker 2 (09:43):
Team's creator like Anyways, I thought it was great.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
So even before that, he had a little off camp
comment to someone online of an article he had written
and basically said that Josh Allen to him, was going
to be the quarterback of the All Deck eighteen so
this past decade, so from twenty twenty one obviously until
twenty twenty nine. He said, right now, you can make
an argument for Mahomes or a Lamar, but he would
(10:10):
have Josh Allen as his all decade quarterback. So someone
like me, who I try not to lose my mind
on the show, but I have to defend Mahomes. That's
I have to defend Mahomes on the show. I hate it.
I hate it, but I have to be the reason
of insanity. And I feel like I was in an
island right. I had a fantasy football guy and Rich
on the show talking Josh Allen number one. I had
(10:32):
Josh Alan everywhere. I'd be number one, even Chad said
he was number one. I was losing my mind a
little bit, but thank god, the masses came down on
Bill Barnwell and they were just like, in what world
is Mahomes Who's going through three Super Bowls? One? Two?
Not on the all decade quarterback over Josh Allen. So
it was just good where I feel like fantasy football
(10:53):
has kind of ruined society again. We all agree it
matters what you do between September and December, but you know, Montana,
Tom Brady, no one talks about these guys regular seasons.
It's Super Bowls. It's January and February that matter. So
I think people have left Mahomes for dead. It's starting
to come back a little bit, a little bit chat.
(11:15):
It feels like a public setting to come back to
the Chiefs team now and they are, like you said,
the highest win total in this division. Mahomes has been
in practice. He's looking good, which is I mean the
Daniel Jones Mahomes. All these quarterbacks are coming off major
injuries which even ten years ago would have taken a
year to get right there. They're in practice early working out.
(11:38):
Who knows if it's the stem cell stuff. I have
no idea what's happening with modern medicine, but it's incredible Mahomes. Yeah,
there's little moments where you're like, Okay, he's got a
johnt Ee race on, but he's out there doing what
Mahomes does, which is off angle, tough throws, just incredible
pocket presence. And you look at the Chiefs team, this
might be the best offensive line he's had in the
(12:00):
last five years. I mean, that's crazy to think what
he's done. But it's always been where they've gone cheap,
They've gone cheap at the offensive line. This year they're
not doing it. The D line is incredible. Where they
have gone cheap is obviously their defense. So I think
we're in unison and with at this point this Chiefs team,
it's like, Okay, do you believe in Mahomes, you believe
in being healthy with Andy Reid? You have him in
(12:21):
a weaker You know the fact of their division, they
were in third place, it's an easier schedule. How do
you not throw a bet on this Chiefs team? It's
just at minus ten and a half minus one fifty
to the ovender. Okay, I'm going to a positive number
that I'm gonna plus number taken the over. I'm gonna
ben my Homes eleven wins, So you know the books, yes,
(12:44):
we could be walking right into it. I haven't projected
eleven and a half wins. I have them a full
game over. This win total. They're gonna peoplere gonna fare
ou pretty Quickly' two teams. I really like this division.
The Chiefs are one of them. It's just you've been
on Mahomes, You've been on Kenneth Walker. This run game
really changing things. And you know again, me and Chat
are the biggest fantasy guys. Cyrus Allen, He's gonna be
(13:05):
a name the general public's gonna learn. This is a
wide receiver that just looks the part right now for
this team. So Worthy is missing time, Rice My missing
time for injury. They might have found a stud in
this past draft. And that's that's what Mahomes is gonna do, right,
He's gonna find a guy. If this guy can stay healthy,
he's gonna become Mahomes' guy. He just cannot keep going
through Travis Kelsey, Who's what You're thirty thirty six years
(13:26):
old now. So I just look at this team as
people are kind of like this might be an in
between year. I feel like last year was that. I
feel like last year was a year from hell. The
year before they were fifteen to one on one score games.
Last year they were one to ten Chat in one
score games. And he's got injured. So yeah, like, I
think we're in unison here where it's like it's the
Mahomes factor. He's not calculable to most people's models. It's
(13:49):
gonna skew things where well, if he gets twelve or
thirteen wins, no, I would not be shocked. But it's
like my model can't predict those one score type of games.
What we're looking at is just the law of that.
So to me, this just feels like a team that
you know, at worst Gase Mahomes goes eight and five
and one score games. You just we just don't see
him having an insanely horrible losing record. Last year was
(14:12):
a year from hell. Me and Chad I feel like
we're the same unison is. We usually fade those type
of seasons the next year. If you have a good
quarterback with a good scheme, a good head coach at
a good organization, you always bounce, always been on the
bounce back. So yeah, I don't know if I'm gonna
go heavy on their division odds like I have in
the previous year's stat but definitely taking that over right now.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
At a plus number plus one seventy to win the
division plus six fifty to win the conference, thirteen to
one to win the Super Bowl. You know, it's been
years since the Chiefs were longer than ten to one
to win the Super Bowl, and they weren't one of
the top two or three teams in terms of the
shortest odds. You started the conversation asking about Barnwell's story,
(14:51):
which I absolutely loved, but I you didn't you commented
on one of his tweets. You didn't comment on the story.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
Did you have to do the story?
Speaker 3 (15:01):
No, it's in the story he's breaking down the bills.
He has a little that's when people cut out chat.
It was a big, big deal where it's like again,
it was just an off fan comment by him, where
he's just breaking down why he likes the Bills and
how great Josh Allen is and then he just froze
in there and Josh Allen is probably gonna be on
my old decade team as a NUMBERLD quarterback. You can
make the argument for Mahomes or a little more. I
(15:22):
think everyone to me to took a one deep breath
wre like whoa whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa whoa. There is
no argument.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
I got to reread the beginning of that story, because
we might be talking about two different stories because.
Speaker 2 (15:35):
I don't remember that from the story yesterday.
Speaker 1 (15:37):
Whatever it is, just go read Bill Barnwell because he's
brilliant and does things that are controversial and challenge your
thoughts on football, and that's the whole point, and if
it riles people up, all the better. More importantly, he
made a very clear point. There's no value on betting
the Los Angeles Rams, and there is no value in
betting super teams. So anyone who's you have to do this,
(16:01):
or has been listening to the show about the NFC
West and saying, you guys are crazy, there is evidence,
There is math to back it up.
Speaker 3 (16:09):
There is Chatty said there's value betting them to miss,
like what we did.
Speaker 2 (16:12):
To miss to miss the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (16:14):
There is value, but it's not the value these people
are thinking of. So that's exactly right, that's backing us up.
I'll definitely agree with you on that.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
LA Chargers.
Speaker 1 (16:23):
They were the team everyone is psyched about before Mahomes
came back and started looking like he would be able
to play in Week one. Second consecutive year they lose
the season, They lose in the wild card round. They
looked terrible against the Patriots. Justin Herbert again flailing in
the playoffs, plus one eighty five to win the division,
(16:44):
eight to one to win the conference, seventeen ish to
one to win the Super Bowl. It's Justin Herbert's seventh
season in the NFL. You could argue that the thing
they did to improve his chances wasn't on the field.
Speaker 2 (17:03):
It was bringing in Mike McDaniel.
Speaker 1 (17:06):
And we have seen so much about the way he
suggested his footwork, and we've heard so much about how
they are adjusting the offense for him to get the
ball out quicker. At the end of the day, do
we believe these things can actually come to fruition or
does Justin Herbert become the guy who's six', six built
like An adonis and has his fiance playing with his
(17:28):
hair on the field and he's just going to believe
that because of who he, is old habits will come
back and he will hold the ball too, long try
to make, plays and this team fails in the.
Speaker 3 (17:39):
Playoffs, yeah it's it's a really fun, team a fun
team to, debate AND i think it's very. Telling the
books have moved them down to nine and a half
at the wind total because they weren't doing and they have.
Adjusted even THOUGH i would say there the charger or
a media, darling, RIGHT i think a lot of people
(18:00):
right now are drinking the kool. Aid The herbert hype
is hitting a crucial point here where people are talking
to him FOR, mvp and it is back to what
you just talked, about the upgrade they have AT. Oc
they might have gone for one of the worst run
blocking schemes to now one of the best in all THE. Nfl,
Right and he could be a great coach, too because
he's going to Challenge Justin, herbert where you, know not
(18:23):
That Justin herbert doesn't get. CHALLENGE i Think carl junders
them in some. Ways but he needed someone to work
on his. Footwork he did need somebody to be in
his ear being, like hey, man it's you do throw
a beautiful pass, downfield but that checkdown that you don't
take on third and six and you're just bombing a
downfield now we're. Punting he needs to correct those. Mistakes.
Herbert no one doubts his arm. Skill it's him always
(18:46):
trying to do too. Much he's always in the survival,
mode which is something that's happened to him just throughout his.
Career it's what he's had to do to make this team.
Work so if they're in another, DIVISION i really would
like to charge this. Team my biggest issue is they
feel like a fantasy team if you're doing Best ball
whatever type of. TEAMS i love building out The chargers.
Right get the running, backs get the wide, receivers get
the tight. ENDS i mean they have three good tight.
(19:08):
Ends Like najoku Left, cleveland he went there to be
a tight. End like they have a really deep wide receiver,
room really deep running back, room really deep. Receivers our
question is just going to be that offensive line and
what that defense is going to be like Without. Mentory
and you, Know i've made a no. SECRET i Think
mintory is one of the best. Coaches the fact that
The ravens got, him it's made me really high on
(19:30):
This ravens. Team it's also made me lower on This
chargers team BECAUSE i think it's gonna be a big.
DEAL i think his defense is gonna be very. EFFECTED
i DON'T i believe people have put too much stock into.
Horribot do you Think harball is a great? Coach he
always gets ten wins out of his. Teams he's just
he's one of those guys that does. That but it's
gonna be interesting what he's like, losing what he's lost on,
(19:50):
defense what he's getting an offense. Here SO i think
gonna be a really fun fantasy, team just you, know betting.
Wise long, TERM i feel like it's the year BEFORE
i Think i'll be much higher next year on This
charters team THAT i am gonna be on this. YEAR
i Just i'm more confident if they had a year
or two in this offense and this defense was able
to improve without mentor because it's just like THEIR d
(20:11):
line Is Khluil mack really scaring? You like they just
don't have guys in THEIR d line that really scare.
You and a division that we're even talked about bon next,
yet but there's really good quarterbacks. Division you need guys
up front to get pressure on these guys or they're
gonna beat. YOU i, mean The chiefs to me just
an even team as This chargers team THAT i Think
broncos won't pay for a much better. Team SO i
(20:33):
hate to be the guy to say, it but it's
do we think this is gonna be a team better
than a wild. CARD i just. DON'T i just. CAN'T
i can't put money to seam them with this, division
and there's another team's division that's better value to me
in The Broncos So. Senior right, now if you want
to bet they're over win total at nine and a,
HALF i don't have a problem with. IT i lean
to them being nine to. EIGHT i go towards the,
ender so for, me it's no bet. There but just
(20:55):
this feels like another year of media hype for Just
herbert head of the. Season it's just another nine and,
eight ten and seventh type of season Where i'm not
going to be too hor, known but it's just the division's,
brutal and it's just really hard to see them becoming
the one or two, seed which is what they need
to do to win this.
Speaker 1 (21:09):
Division The chargers are a fascinating. TEAM i think last
year we were talking about The chargers And harbaugh And
barnwell might have, said it feels like The. Chargers if
you're betting The chargers last year in twenty twenty, five
you're betting on, them excuse me a year. Early now
(21:32):
you're saying it to your early partly because of the
new offense And Justin herbert getting. Comfortable and your point
about them being a fantasy team is fascinating because that's
been their rep for forty five. Years go back to
when they were In San diego and it Was Dan
(21:53):
fouts And Kellen winslow And James lofton and then when
and It's Philip rivers And, Ladanian tomlinson And Antonio.
Speaker 2 (22:04):
Gates and now they got Another all world.
Speaker 1 (22:07):
Quarterback who's going to put up the type of numbers
that have him contend for The hall Of. Fame and
he's going to do it with some fabulous weapons when
he Had Keenan allen and some developing.
Speaker 2 (22:18):
Weapons but is he going to win?
Speaker 1 (22:21):
Anything AND i think that's why you're starting to see
some of these numbers come. Down and all of this
is about psychology and perception and what the market is.
Doing AND i think the more people are Seeing Patrick,
mahomes the less people are inclined to buy Into Justin.
HERBERT i think that's that's what the market is telling
(22:42):
us right. Now AND i, agree by the, way like
sometimes you find clarity in your thoughts and your, opinions
AND i think we're both finding clarity on The chargers right.
Speaker 3 (22:50):
Now, YEAH i just couldn't believe people are actually betting,
Them like you're really betting them at seventeen to one
to win The Super. Bowl it feels like, horrible horrible
odds to be taking the charter. Seam i'm pretty sure
The eagles were twenty to one just a couple of weeks.
Ago it wouldn't you much rather bet a team who's
been there before an easisier division an their team it's
never won a playoff game in a really hard division
at seventy to one seventeen to, One so that's WHAT
(23:12):
i mean where it's like public receptions just made them.
Unbettable it's like they've just slowly becoming The. Cowboys the
Media darling and The cowboys were right, now The cowboys
never had value because they've just been bet up so.
Much the same. Year for The, chargers they were just
a normal team in this. Division twenty five to. One
thirty to one makes a ton of more. Sense seventeen
to one makes zero. Sense they were at fourteen to.
(23:34):
One so once again they've been dropping because other money's
been going to other places for. Betters AND i still
don't think there's value, There so LIKE i, SAID i
JUST i DON'T i don't want to bet that at this.
Point and you, know we'll see about This charge. Team
It's i'm excited for them because they're such a fun,
team but it's LIKE i think we all rightly so
have our doubts about them for many, reasons and it
(23:56):
all goes back, to you, know can they Support? Herbert
can they keep those if it's a linement, healthy because
you know we saw last year he did so, much
was so. Little they have the, weapons they, have the offensive,
line everyone's taking to stay. Healthy it really is going
to fall back to that, defense in my.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
Opinion so let's play a fun game for a, second
because we're going to talk about The. Broncos, obviously The
broncos had the number one, seed they had a fourteen
to three.
Speaker 2 (24:19):
Season they Beat buffalo.
Speaker 1 (24:21):
In that dramatic game in overtime in the divisional, round
and then they lost in a really ugly game to
The patriots in THE afc title game where Bo nicks didn't,
play and you could, argue if he's, playing that is
an entirely different game going both, ways, right The patriots
would have had to, adjust so it wouldn't be a
ten to seven. Slugfest they're plus two ten to win the,
(24:45):
division ten to one to win the, conference twenty, one
twenty to one to win the Super. Bowl and that's
outside the top. Ten, Simon what the actual fuck? Like
this team that was number one seed in the conference
last year is now considered to be the third best
(25:06):
team by the odds in the. DIVISION i can accept.
REGRESSION i can accept there were some miracle. COMEBACKS i
can accept that there will be an ability to adjust
to What bonix is good. At but come, on you
got like one of the best coaches in the, league
a team that you could argue overachieved and might actually
(25:27):
be that might have been a year. Early everything for
them is third best in THE Afc. West are you kidding?
Speaker 2 (25:34):
Me that is?
Speaker 1 (25:35):
Insane insane? Comment and THEN i got a question for.
Speaker 3 (25:40):
You, yeah and we were both Done Ray when we
first talked opening, lines we couldn't believe when they came.
OUT i think their original win total was, nine so
the books opened them at, nine and we were both
in shock of, like what are we? Missing are we
stepping into? Something and you, know the more GUYS i
talked to other professionals are just, like, well look at
their one square, record, right we just talked About. Mahomes
(26:01):
what was? It one to ten and one score games this.
Team that's something that never been done IN nfl. History
there were fourteen and one in games they were trailing
in the fourth. Quarter so last year they had this
incredible stretch with Bon nicks kept winning games in the fourth,
quarter and we remember those. GAMES a couple of those
games were better past them where he would take the
ugly dog and all of a, sudden Bon nicks would
(26:23):
just have these incredible fourth quarters and have these comebacks
and he would always, cover but they were finding ways to.
Win it was truly. Incredible and it's just you look
at This denber team and you, know top five onto
the offensive, line top five, defense and then they're Bringing.
Wattle so now you Have, wattle you Have Sutton, bryant
might be this other receiver they. Have you look at
their running back room WITH. Jk, Dobbins it's, like, okay
(26:45):
if he goes, down we HAVE. Rj. Harvey we have
this kid Named coleman who could step up and be
a running. Back so you, Know Sean payton's really put
his fingerprint on this, team and they keep putting out
that way where they have the defense they really need
to attack the defense that much of the. OFFSEASON A
wattle part is such a huge upgrade we're not talking
enough about where it's, Like, okay if you're believing in
Bo nick's taking the next, step you went out there
(27:07):
and got him a number one. Receiver that's What wattle.
Is wattle.
Speaker 1 (27:10):
Is what's interesting About wattle is he's a number one
receiver who's a really, good for lack of a better,
term possession.
Speaker 2 (27:19):
Receiver.
Speaker 1 (27:20):
Right he can be complimentary to What sutton can, do
and a lot of times that's what Bo nicks was
missing last, year like someone who he can be comfortable
with when he doesn't have to unleash it and can
throw those shorter.
Speaker 2 (27:32):
Routes so great, pickup great.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
Pickup in just another, way pick your, Poison like if
you take him, Away Sean pain will have a chess
piece another move against the counter that and then when
you slide that protection over To sutton again will burn
you With. Wattle you just can't deny A wattle. Speed
and that's Why i'm so excited to seeing this offense
where it's, like, okay we Saw wattle Did miami and
with you, Know Tyreek hill and you, know really. Impressive
(27:59):
but the big thing haunted him was he was just
inconsistent gain the game with either a soft issue soft
issue issues where he was, like, OKAY i got a
bat ham shring and he leaves in the middle of
the second, quarter plays plays a bunch of, games but
he just kept leaving the middle of. Games that's always
gonna be a question with A lottle so that that
that would be a definitely hesitation. Him but look at
the seam, overall it's do you believe in Bow? Nick sure.
(28:20):
Not we had the same conversation last, year do you
do you believe? Him bow and both of us were,
like we see, it but how can you go Against
mahomes in this? Division we just we just were never
going to pick them for and put a lot of
money into. It and this, year how do you not
bet them in the? Division? Odds, like just looking at,
him you, know this is the best value in this. Division.
RIGHT i don't know if they can duplicate be in
(28:41):
the one seed once, again but should they have the
third worst odds in this division Behind mahomes And, herbert.
Speaker 2 (28:47):
It makes no.
Speaker 1 (28:47):
Sense, well that's WHAT i was going to ask, you
if you if you could line up The Chiefs division,
odds Chief Super bowl, Odds Chargers, Division Chargers Super bowl,
Odds Broncos division, Odds Broncos Super bowl, Adds so don't
Forget broncos basically two to one to win The, division
(29:08):
twenty to one to win The Super, Bowl chargers plus
one eighty five to win The, division seventeen to one
to win The Super, bowl and Then chiefs plus one
seventy to win The division thirteen to one to Win Super.
Speaker 2 (29:19):
Bowl if you're.
Speaker 1 (29:20):
Drafting those six, odds how do you draft? Them BECAUSE
i wonder if you AND i would be on the
same page about number, one BECAUSE i feel LIKE i
have a lean that's different than.
Speaker 2 (29:32):
Yours for number, One.
Speaker 3 (29:34):
I'm still Gonna i'm still going to bet The chiefs
just because that's to, me that's.
Speaker 1 (29:37):
Good which one thirteen to ONE i super?
Speaker 3 (29:42):
Bet, Yeah i've bet my Home.
Speaker 2 (29:43):
Super bowl ads just, okay you know, what you know, what.
Speaker 3 (29:46):
ANYTHING i get ten to one or better on my,
Homes i'm gonna take that.
Speaker 2 (29:48):
Bet then we're on the same.
Speaker 1 (29:49):
Page because IF i were DRAFTING i would take The
chiefs thirteen to one first of those six.
Speaker 3 (29:55):
Numbers and it's no disrespect to you, know and This denver.
Team it's just we're thinking long, term and you, know
if it's Bone nicks Versus mahomes in THE Afc championship,
game mean chatty, betting we ain't betting Bon. Nicks we're
gonna Take mahomes there every. Time so it's not it's
not so much we're against, him it's just it's hard
(30:16):
to believe him shown up in that moment out playing
a guy Like, mahomes where we've seen guys Like Josh
allen are a little more falter and they have much more
skill than Bon. Nicks so you, know looking at this,
year it's JUST i can't get over The Denver bronco
disrespect and the effect that they're the third team this.
DIVISION i really feel like they should be talk with
The chiefs at the top of this. DIVISION i get
(30:38):
what pros are saying here that they're, like, oh we're
built we're built in the, regression no, doubt we're all
doing the same. Thing but at nine and a half
wins and minus won Twenty, CHAD i, mean come, ON
i think we got to bet their over win. Total
it's just If bois is, healthy if this team plays
the way we think they should. Play it's not a
(30:58):
guarantee of ten, wins but pretty damn. It Like Sean
bayton is one of the best coaches in this, league
and you give him this much talent on this deep
of a. Team if they can just stay, healthy there's
no doubt they'll be in the playoffs and even maybe
potentially win this. Division so, YEAH i felt, like again
every division has an easy, bet this one felt like
the easy bet to. Me just take their over win.
(31:19):
Total you don't have to be any other. Ones you
can stay away from homes with injuries if you. Want
Bone knicks looks fully, healthy good to. GO i think
it Was Aubert brewer was in their camp just talking
about how you would never know he's had any type
of issues with his legs after what was at foot
surgery last. YEAR i think it was only an eight
week to like ten week heal. Process so he's been
(31:40):
doing their off season, programs he's been good to. Go
no restriction on Bon, Nicks So i'd be very. Excited
IF i was A Denver broncas, fan and when you
have a team that loses THE Nfc championship game because
their quarterback was, hurt that is an amazing motivator the entire,
offseason head into the season because they feel like they were,
wrong they were. UNLUCKY i would be, very very excited
(32:00):
IF i always a Dever broco. Fan this just feys
a great team that's not being talked, about that has
all the motivation in the world that a lot of
these teams have as. Well they did weren't, there they
didn't taste, it they weren't that, close and feel like
it was taken away from. Them so, yeah this is
Everything i've. Read a highly highly renovated team this.
Speaker 1 (32:16):
Year way too much regression on This broncos, Team way
too much hype on The, Chargers way too much regression
on The. BRONCOS i have one boone to pick with
the media. Community you talked About Albert breer doing, it
our Guy Ben solac did.
Speaker 2 (32:33):
It Colin cowherd did.
Speaker 1 (32:35):
It all these guys who go to training camps and
come out saying about, players he lost fifteen, pounds he looks,
amazing he's streaking across the, field or he doesn't look
like he even had a torn achilles or his foot looks.
Speaker 2 (32:51):
Fine none of us are.
Speaker 1 (32:53):
Doctors none of us can watch and really understand anything
that's going on in practice, field in training. Camp with
twenty minutes of, OBSERVATION i feel LIKE i get THE
i get all these alerts FROM espn about you, know
from beat reporters that are hyping up their, team and.
Speaker 2 (33:10):
A little of it, manners a little bit fucking. Manners
until the season, starts it's all. Irrelevant it.
Speaker 3 (33:16):
Doesn't at the same, Time i'm not gonna say the
quarterback who was A CHICAGO i think The able people
know What i'm talking. About i'll never forget a guy
WHO i work with who said he went to a
practice And he'll never forget he's talking to this quarterback
and he could just smell the booze coming out of
his skin and that hot sun and just how like those.
Are LIKE i think back to those days where you
(33:37):
would never have. That nowadays you don't go to practice
and a quarterback Smells sunday. Morning how things have just
changed where back and THEN i think it is to
get back to like these guys wouldn't work out in
the off, season they would get in shape in. Camp
now these guys never get out of. Shape they are, working,
yeah and it's just it's just so different. Now So
i'm with, you where it's like everyone's in the best
(33:57):
shape of their. Life no one takes a day. Off
it's the league has changed in. It what's twenty years,
ago where guys could come smell and come smell Like sunday.
Morning now these guys are all. Professionals they wear their,
wristbands they know their sleep, schedule they they what they've.
Like you, know they drank the day. Before it's all
down to a science. Now So i'm with. You you
don't gain much going to these practice like you used To.
Speaker 1 (34:18):
Simon the news is when someone looks, shitty not when
someone looks. Great that's my. Point anyone looks. Great Las
Vegas raiders terrible season With Pete, carroll terrible season With Gino,
smith missed the playoffs for the twenty first time in
twenty three. SEASONS i can run through the. Odds there's
no value in any of. Them twenty to one to
(34:40):
win the, division seventy five to one to win the,
conference one hundred and fifty to one to win The Super.
Bowl they Added Clint kubiak as their new head. Coach
his first, Season they Added mike, McCoy they added a
new defensive. Coordinator Kirk cousin's probably going to. Start it's
really about. Win Is Fernando mendoza gonna? Play the one
(35:06):
THING i would say here and When i'm hearing people
talk about and this could just, be you, know training camp, euphoria.
Optimism everybody wants to root for, something right the over
five and a, Half people seeing Brock, bauers people Seeing
Kirk cousins one more year removed from an, injury people
(35:27):
Seeing Ashton, genty people seeing that offensive line being healthier
than it was last. Year should anybody be thinking about
the over five and a.
Speaker 3 (35:37):
Half, No if you want to bet their over five
and a, half just bet them week, one like bet
their money Line week. ONE i think they Played Miami week.
One make that bet because if they don't win that,
game they ain't no way they're getting to six. Wins
so to, me that would put that would be the
GAME i. Take BUT i HONESTLY i wouldn't do it
BECAUSE i actually Love Miami week. ONE i think there
(35:58):
are three and a half point dollar against This vegas.
Team but, Yeah i'd be excited IF i was A vegas.
Team but it's the same thing where it's, like you
guys are two three years. Away you're a, horrible, horrible rant. Organization,
everything everything you guys, do it always ends up. Wrong
can frame A mendoza change all? That that's the. Hope
we love this. Kid we think he has a credible
amount of, Talent he's got the personalities proof For. Vegas
(36:20):
LIKE i think it was YESTERDAY i saw something about
it Was Max crosby how he begged his owner or
maybe he's begged HIS gm to Take Jalen carter if
the Other carter would be dead if he got drafted
by The Las Vegas. Raiders that never would have. Worked
they're like the exact opposite organization to draft In Jalen. Quarter,
yeah let's Put Jalen carter In Sin city With Max
(36:42):
crosby as his Mentor, uh that would have been a.
Disaster so there are in a really unique situation where
it's like you have to find the right personalities to
be able to thrive in that. City Because chad, Knows
like if you if you don't know what you're stepping,
Into vegas can literally swallow you. Up like it's got
every every bad temptation you can possibly have in. Life
(37:04):
they got it times a thousand beautiful, women, parties you, know,
temptations all these things that you know during a season
you don't want your players dealing. With it's all. There
the fact that they Got fana Mendoz Are Kirk, cousins
two guys, that, like you, know you think of them
at the club at one am on A sunday after a. Loss,
right these are two guys that they'll be in the
(37:26):
building after a. Loss they'll be either hitting lifts or watching,
film like these are the two exact Quarterbacks brady's dreamed
up leading this. Team so the pillars are there the,
building the building blocks are, there but win total, Wise
I'm i'm happy to take that. Under just in this,
division in THE Afc, Conference like they don't really have easy,
Games like people Think miami is an easy. Game you're
(37:47):
it's this thing always talking About you're the easy game To. Miami,
Well miami fans are going through their schedule they have
this is a win for, them just Like vegas think
they're gonna roll This miami. Team so it's like we
talll a got time two bad. Teams you really don't
know what we're gonna. GET i usually trust the veteran quarterback,
there so you, Know kirk they say and all the right.
Things Is kirk's going to be their. STARTER i have
a hard time thing that For man And mendoza comes
(38:08):
out and it's just great in camp you play. Them
we have the data like number one picks don't. Sit
they just do not. Sit even going back to the,
nineties right that's when things started really changing That before,
then if you're a number one, pick it didn't matter
they were going to sit. YOU i, MEAN i Think
Troy aikman played for The cowboys and went like one
in fifteen started his. Career that was the. Outlier they
(38:29):
just do not really. Please you're not playing on one picks,
now they're just, like, okay we're one and, seven let's
put the kid. In at some point you're just going
to put him. In So i'm really excited to see
what they do With. Mendoza you know Everything i've read
him And kubacker in, sync totally locked. In you, know
basically their whole offensive schemes around Rock, bowers which they
(38:51):
should be like that guy probably the best tight end
of football, already tons of. TALENT i love. It like Scheme,
kuback scheme your whole off that's around the. Kid and
you know gent he could be a great complimentary. PIECE
i know they they Get. LINDENBAUM i know they went
out and got a. Center, yeah you know that's a big.
Deal like. That you have the highest paid center of. Football,
now you have a young, quarterback you have a young running,
(39:14):
back a really great young tight. End the pieces are all.
THERE i think we all agree like What gruden, did
like that. Defense draft, wise you just go through all their.
Drafts they have nothing. Defensively their defense is so. BAD
i know they try to address them with a, fregency
but just in this division you look at they're just
they're so far behind these other three. Teams AND i
(39:36):
just can't find a reason to tell people to bet this.
YEAR i, mean seventy five to one to win the.
Conference that's just such a waste of. Money there's just no.
World those odds are still too short to. Me, well
this team is built up to be So, yeah it's
not a fun, pick it's a boring, pick BUT i
am going to be on their. UNDER i have this
team at four, wins so you, know a game and
a half is pretty big. Discrepancy SO i will be betting.
(39:57):
It BUT i get what the books a, junior they're
kind of heading here where if it Is, kirk you
could get them six. Wins Like, kirk, say good veteran
quarterback that at the end of, games they're going to
be close, games like they're not a horrible team that's
gonna get blown. Out Can kirk steal a couple wins
here and. There, Yeah i'm just really bet on for
An aame And dooz becoming their. Starter that's really what
this bet. Is and once he does come in there
In November, december when all these teams are a peak,
(40:20):
performance him getting one or two wins would be pretty
big stretch to me For Vernana, Mendoza SO i feel
pretty comfortable ticking this under right.
Speaker 1 (40:28):
Now all, Right so for THE Afc, WEST i think
we're in. Agreement we really like The chiefs thirteen to,
one that value for them to win The Super. BOWL
i think we're also in agreement that we think that
The broncos are way. Undervalued take the over nine and a.
Half we think The chiefs are way, overvalued probably a
pass on their win, total but also a pass just
on the value of Their Super bowl odds at seventeen
(40:52):
to One simon's, show we're going to, come oh, yeah go.
Speaker 3 (40:55):
Ahead, Today we're just you don't like those odds were giving.
OUT i always, say if you want to go way,
Longer chiefs to beat The eagles one hundred to, one
you bet a dollar one hundred dollars right now on
just The Super bowl matchup with The chiefs to beat
The eagles in The Super, bowl that, one you, know
if you want to go really, CHALK i think it's
sixty to one, Still chiefs to beat The rams in
(41:15):
The Super, bowl which, day and we already talked about
there's no value betting The rams straight, up but if
you want to throw them in a couple of these,
bets Right rams Versus, chiefs there's some value. There so,
yeah sixty to one if you're want to do, That
chiefs to beat The rams In Super. Bowl BUT i
really like That, Egles BUT i think both them and
The eagles are just the bottom of the value you're
going to find on these two teams coming off the
years they had. Before so, yeah if you don't like
thirty to ONE ifc For mahomes coming off of major knee,
(41:39):
injury one hundred to one to beat The eagles in
The Super.
Speaker 1 (41:41):
BOWL i love that, Bet. Simon it's on my list
AND i made. IT i like The rams one. Too
it's a really good. Idea we've talked about that a few,
times so be. Listening don't don't do WHAT i did
last year And Tyler shuck this Where simon, says, Hey Tyler,
shock two hundred and, one Win rookie of The, year
and then the rest of the, season you're sweating it
because you didn't make the bet as you see it
(42:03):
go down to, like you, know two to.
Speaker 2 (42:06):
One, uh just take a little. Taste all.
Speaker 1 (42:09):
Right we're gonna come back with our NEXT nfl division
betting preview, tope the A Fc. North this has Been Sharper,
square part of The volume podcast. Network watch or listen
on YouTube At Sharper. Square don't forget pre order The.
Number i'm super proud of the, book worked really hard
on it's it's really really. FUN i hope people will
(42:31):
give it a give it a.
Speaker 2 (42:32):
Look pre order. It read The.
Speaker 1 (42:34):
Number dot, Com join the invite Only Discord when you do,
it get the free bonus, chapter the Exclusive bonus. Chapter
read The number dot com like this, Video subscribe with
the channel downloads Some, Spotify Apple pods wherever you get your.
Pods rate, review, subscribe leave us five, stars say whatever you.
Want feedback is a gift until next.
Speaker 2 (42:55):
TIME i love.
Speaker 3 (42:56):
YOU i Think i'm a. Life all the, investment if
it's been made, right it's like putting money in the.
Bank now it's time to start we. Grawing mm. Hmm
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Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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