September 13, 2026 • 24 mins
Sunday NFL Week 1 kickoff approaches for fans and gamblers alike, so our betting expert hosts deliver their final five against the spread contest picks. Chad Millman and Simon Hunter finish up their last best bets and predictions this week, zeroing in on Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers against Caleb Williams the Chicago Bears, along with Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Atlanta Falcons. Plus, we hear them lock in their final decision on the Sunday night game between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants, plus the debut of quarterback Kyler Murray as the Minnesota Vikings host Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers. Will Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make their final five picks against the Cincinnati Bengals? What about Patrick Mahomes' return for the Kansas City Chiefs against Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football? Dive in NOW for their final and official betting picks, all in one fast-paced episode! #Volume
0:00:00 - START
0:01:00 - TAMPA BAY BUCS VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS
0:03:30 - CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
0:06:20 - ATLANTA FALCONS VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
0:09:15 - BUFFALO BILLS VS. HOUSTON TEXANS
0:13:15 - CHICAGO BEARS VS. CAROLINA PANTHERS
0:16:00 - MIAMI DOLPHINS VS. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
0:17:00 - MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS
0:19:20 - DALLAS COWBOYS VS. NEW YORK GIANTS
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Pilot Market. We are
part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show
that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys
pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined, as always,
by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional bettor,
Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Hello, Simon.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
Chad, how we doing?
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Brother, we got a Sunday morning NFL Week 1 show.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
You and I are going to nail down our five
final official picks for the first week of the NFL season.
I know people have been asking a lot about the contest.
There have been so many legal and logistics issues with
the contest that we haven't confronted before. The contest will
be happening. I apologize that we didn't get it done
(00:48):
for week one. It will launch for week two. So
consider these our final five picks that we love at
this moment.
Speaker 2 (00:57):
With these lines. Simon, are you ready to roll?
Speaker 3 (01:01):
Let's do it.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
Here we go.
Speaker 1 (01:03):
Tampa Bay at Cincinnati. The Bucs are three and a
half point underdogs. This one was Chad's choice. I'm a
little concerned about this, Simon.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
You love it. I love it. But all of a sudden,
this number is moving to four.
Speaker 1 (01:15):
And it's been moving this direction all week, stubbornly hanging
on to three and a half. I've started to see
some fours pop up this morning, Sunday morning. You listed
it as one of your biggest bets. It's a dog
with a hook, an O-line we love, a QB we
love as a dog, and he's got his full complement
(01:36):
of weapons because it's week one and nobody's hurt.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
What are we missing? Are we getting trapped? Are we
being blind? Do we still love this?
Speaker 3 (01:47):
Yeah, it's too late to get off the boat at
this point, my friend. We're in the middle of the Atlantic.
We are all in. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (01:54):
So, yeah, I just look at it that I agree
with you. A weak one are always going to be
scuffed because we always see the worst case scenario, right?
Joe Burrow throws for 350 against a bad secondary of Tampa,
and we just get absolutely torched.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
But, you know, me and you talked about it.
Speaker 4 (02:10):
The Bucs have always been good to us when Baker
is healthy and has his full complement in offensive weapons. Now,
we don't know how they're going to be without Mike Evans, right?
No Mike Evans, to me, is the bigger thing we
haven't really talked much about. But you've seen when he's
been injured, Baker's always used these other guys and made
them stand out. So it's kind of going to be
an interesting test there. And, yeah, it really is just
(02:31):
a fade on the numbers. We do respect this Bengals
team and Joe Byrne, how good they are, but I
just can't see the Bucs being that much worse of
a team, honestly, as fully healthy as they.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
Are right now. So I'm excited for Reuben Bain as.
Speaker 4 (02:44):
Well, see that matchup against that offensive line for Cincy
because we've talked, I think they're better than people give
them respect to be. But this would be a great
test for them. Like to say, good front Vita Bay
is full go as well. So, yeah, we're going to
get a heavy dosage of Joe Burrow. And, you know,
it's going to be their plan, obviously, in this matchup tonight. So, yeah,
(03:05):
go to four. Like I've talked about, I know pros
who have bet this. They're not taking the number. They're
really betting the money line. So, to me, that's why
it's going up a little bit. Because people, especially the public,
they're going to be doing money line bets as well. So,
they're just throwing these in their parlays at this point.
I think everyone has the same mentality.
Speaker 3 (03:19):
We all think. Joe will win, but it won't be
by more than three. Right.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
Okay. Really quickly.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
I want to talk about two favorites or two of
the games. Probably not going to make it, but they
were on the conversation the whole week. So I just
want to close the loop on them. Cleveland at Jacksonville.
This line got down to seven and a half in
the middle of the week. It's now at plus nine
Cleveland plus nine in a lot of places. You've been
talking about the Browns since Tuesday and, I will defer
(03:49):
to you. I don't think the Browns plus nine ends
up being one of our final five. But tell me
if you're feeling so strong about the Browns at plus
nine right now.
Speaker 4 (04:03):
Yeah, I can't believe your discord, which will no doubt
be used against you at some day in court, came through,
not taking the jacks, took Pittsburgh's money line and that
paid off.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
Four votes, only four votes out of nearly 150.
Speaker 4 (04:16):
I mean, I think Pittsburgh went from minus 180 to
it's like minus.
Speaker 1 (04:21):
We're going to talk about that in a sec. Let's
let's finish with this game.
Speaker 3 (04:25):
Yeah, nothing's changed. I get why everyone's on the Jaguars. Strong.
What's going to be a train wreck? It could be terrible.
Speaker 4 (04:31):
I've just given out all the stats. I mean, one
of my favorite ones, too, especially now that it's moved.
So underdogs of a plus points in week one. 26-9
against the spread. So that would be the Browns and
the Cardinals.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
Yeah. It's just a week one play.
Speaker 4 (04:45):
You just play these ugly dogs because it's always so sloppy.
Could the Browns be blown out? Could the Cardinals get
blown out? Yeah, we all agree they're bottom of the
barrel teams, but it's just so stupid week one. So
to me, it's a Jaguars team that keeps getting the
love and hype from last year.
Speaker 3 (05:01):
People just love that team.
Speaker 4 (05:03):
They were so good to close out the year, and
you expect them to come out and just beat up
a Browns team that historically does not travel well. I
think I saw some really stupid stat. It was a
Watson stack. Cause he obviously played for the Texans and
it was like in his career, he's five and one
against the Jaguars. It's like, that's a different person. That
is not Sean Watson in any form. So I love
(05:23):
that people were asking me about that stat. It's like,
I wish that mattered. I love stupid stats like that.
Speaker 3 (05:27):
Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (05:29):
To me, it's, it's, it's, it could be the one,
the game that ruins people's survivor bracket, right? That would
be the shocker of the day. If the Browns could
win outright. That's why I just want to stay away.
That it's a little, Little fishy, too much love for
the public. So I'm on this number. Keep getting bigger.
I would love for it to get double digits because
the stats you get even better for double digit dogs
(05:49):
in week one.
Speaker 3 (05:49):
So yeah, let the public keep bending up this morning.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
Are you taking a little taste of the money line?
Speaker 3 (05:57):
Yeah, I already have.
Speaker 4 (05:59):
If you're doing any stupid little money line around Robin
Parlay or anything like that, just throw one or two
of the Browns into one of them. Because like we said,
It's just so much unknown what their defense is going
to be like and what their offense will be like.
I'll pay for the upside because I respect how good
they've drafted the last two years.
Speaker 1 (06:16):
You mentioned Pittsburgh a second ago, and I just want
to close the loop on this one as well. This
was a huge move on Thursday with the announcement that
Tua was going to be out with an oblique issue.
Cooper Rush is now going to be starting. The line
moved from 3.5 to 4.5, 5.5.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
It's now at 6.5.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
Someone had asked in the Discord– what our survivor pick was.
We chose the Steelers in survivor, and that was earlier
in the week. Our grouper bet of the week from
the Discord voted on people in the Discord was Steelers
(06:50):
at minus 178. We got that on the money line,
a great number before the news. Steelers are now minus
300 on the money line.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
Remember, if you want to join the Discord, go to readthenumber.com.
Speaker 1 (07:06):
Readthenumber.com. Pre-order the book, my book, The Number. Get an
invite to the Discord. The more books we sell now,
the more we are giving to St.
Speaker 2 (07:14):
Jude's Hospital. Go to readthenumber.com.
Speaker 1 (07:21):
Pittsburgh was a team that we liked as a favorite,
potentially to be in our final five.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
Obviously, at this number, it's going to be a pass
for us.
Speaker 4 (07:30):
Yeah, it's going to be tough to program a real
choice in their contest because it's going to be minus
three and a half in a lot of those contests.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
Right.
Speaker 4 (07:36):
It's going to be the most public side probably of
the week game-wise because it's a third-string quarterback going against
a highly paid and rated defense at home. So, yeah,
am I terrified? I'd much rather have been Tua. Tua,
I knew exactly what we were going to get. I
expected him to be knocked out within the second or
third quarter because of this problem. Cooper Rush now is
(07:58):
having his own back spasms. um, you know, I don't
know what kind of bed mattresses they're using or chairs
they're using over at that facilities, but if the owner's
a billionaire got to update whatever that is, because having
both quarterbacks have back spasms, very interesting.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
So, um, yeah, we're in.
Speaker 4 (08:16):
I'm dug in, I'm dug in on Pittsburgh's when I've
been bending for three months, I'd never knew this was
gonna be the most public side.
Speaker 3 (08:21):
I always thought it was kind of, uh, there's people
out there that love Atlanta.
Speaker 4 (08:24):
So I was like, people are always gonna be back
in that team, especially in this matchup.
Speaker 3 (08:28):
Um, this is insane.
Speaker 4 (08:30):
If you want to, If you want to know what
side to blindly take at a number, that probably is
going to work out for you. Plus six and a
half on Atlanta, that's a huge number. At this point,
you can't put money on Pittsburgh unless you're putting a
teaser or taking their money line still. I would not
recommend taking minus six and a half on this team
just because it's, once again, such a fluky week one,
(08:51):
and Porter's not playing as well. So now Drake London's
going up against their number two corner. Cooper Rush is
not putting fear at all into anybody, but you just saw–
on Thursday night, a backup quarterback come in and win
a game. All it takes is them to get hot
and their team to panic or have a bad game.
(09:11):
We're dug in here, Chad, but it being the most
bedside and everything like that money-wise is a little alarming.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
We're doing a new segment, Simon, and we're going to
talk about it with the Houston Texans hosting the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 2 (09:26):
It's our closing.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
Time trade of the week. presented by Polymarket. Look, we've
been talking about Houston a little bit more in every episode.
It's at one and a half as a trade on Polymarket,
but it's creeping. You can see people coming in on Houston.
(09:54):
The Texans as dogs were one of the games that
the Wise Guys emphasized in sharp calls compelled you to
make them one of your bigger bets. I have now
invested in Texans at plus one and a half Texans.
Speaker 2 (10:11):
On the money line.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
We included them in the money line underdog parlay with
the Giants and Closing time trade of the week presented
by Polymarket.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
I don't know how we ignore this one.
Speaker 3 (10:25):
Yeah, it's a true pros versus Joes.
Speaker 4 (10:28):
It's every pro group I talk to, every pro guy
I talk to as a single bettor is like, how
do you not take Houston here? And on the flip side,
it feels like everyone I talk to is like, well,
you're getting, you know, one of the best quarterbacks in
football under a field goal. You take him here. He
finds ways to win these type of games. So it
is a little scary too. I've seen, it feels like
(10:48):
anytime I'm in the, the books or wherever, you're seeing
a lot of love for this Texans team because of
what we just talked about.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
Everyone just knows this defense is a unit. Yeah, so.
Speaker 4 (11:02):
If he does win this game, credit will start this
season for Josh Allen because this is a true test
with a rookie head coach on the road here. I mean,
that's another part of it we haven't even talked about
that much where it's such a big deal for a
first-time head coach, and a D.C. 's first time calling
defense for the Bills, a whole new defensive unit on
(11:23):
the road here. We know the question here, Chad. Can
Stroud get us to 20 points or 21 points? It
feels like that's what's going to win this game. Either
team can get to 20 or 21. We'll trade this number.
Hopefully you get it before it drops down because I
agree with you. I think it's going to get back
down to half a point or maybe flip by the
(11:43):
time the game kicks off.
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Chicago at Carolina. Carolina is now.
Speaker 2 (13:11):
A full field goal. dog at home. It had been
at two and a half.
Speaker 1 (13:16):
The public is finally starting to move this up a
little bit, which is what we expected.
Speaker 2 (13:23):
This was Simon Says.
Speaker 1 (13:24):
It's also on the list of one of the bigger
bets of the week. Reminder, Bryce Young, past two seasons,
17-9 as an underdog, 11 outright wins. The Bears defense,
on paper at least, truly suspect. Carolina's defense might not
be any better. But, humid day in Charlotte. Scoreboard could
(13:48):
light up. We still like Bryce in that spot. Nothing
has made me feel like we have to walk away
from this.
Speaker 4 (13:56):
No, it's going to be nice though for the Bears.
It's a true test of what their defense could be.
Because we've seen Bryce Young, he struggles against good defenses,
but he tears up bad defenses. I mean, I wish
he didn't say bad, right? He tore up the Rams
defense last year in the playoffs. I don't want to
put too much disrespect to Bryce Young, but But, yeah,
I knew coming in it was probably going to be
on the bigger public side, the Bears, because they were
(14:18):
just such a.
Speaker 3 (14:19):
Good team last year.
Speaker 4 (14:20):
And they're such a fun team to root for, especially
Ben Johnson, the head coach. He's just an offensive genius
of mine. So, Polymerica was one of the first places
to go to three and a half. So, it's another
place I've been betting a ton of money into or
trading a lot of money into. And I just, I
look at this number now and it's like, okay. I
thought every everywhere would be three and a half and
(14:41):
it's still not there. Like you said, it's still holding
at three, which is really books. Books aren't here to push.
So I always say to people, it's like, you know,
worst case scenario lands on the three. That's usually how
the books look at it because they just have so
many people at two and a half.
Speaker 3 (14:54):
So money line bets. So, um, yeah, not surprising.
Speaker 4 (14:58):
This is probably gonna be the one or two most
bedside and most books, uh, today and most traded sides
to it on most markets. So, um, I'm of the
standpoint here of just matchup wise. I think Bryce will
always keep us in it. Even, even when he gets down,
he's done offensive weapons right now. The Carolina team's healthy
enough to make this a real game. And flip side,
(15:20):
we'll see what Ben Johnson wants to do, but I
expect they're going to run for 150 yards. Like the
matchup wise bears are going to be able to get
theirs up front with their offensive unit there. I mean,
their strength is that O-line. So we will see what
happens this matchup here, but, Yeah, just a line that
probably should closer to two, maybe two and a half.
The fact that it's three, three and a half, it's
(15:42):
way too much value on Chicago.
Speaker 1 (15:44):
I think it's trading about 55 cents at the three
and a half on Polymarket right now. Our brass balls
trade of the week presented by Polymarket this week was
Miami at Las Vegas, three and a half. That's currently
trading at 54 cents. So it's more expensive to buy
(16:07):
the Miami side. I think we're going to have to
make a tough choice on this one. I'm curious about
where your.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
Head is at.
Speaker 1 (16:14):
My sense is that we have three we are locked
in on, potentially four. I wonder if at the end
of the day, Miami at three and a half is
going to be on the outside looking in.
Speaker 2 (16:26):
I'm still invested.
Speaker 1 (16:27):
I actually bet Miami on the money line here, but
I'm not sure we're going to get Miami at three
and a half as one of our final five. I
think both you and I feel more strongly about some
other ones, but maybe I'm misinterpreting, misreading.
Speaker 2 (16:41):
Your thoughts?
Speaker 3 (16:43):
Yeah, but this is your side. You're all in on this.
You wanted this to be brass balls, and now you
seem a little lukewarm on it. What's going on? Are
you getting a little cold feet on Miami here?
Speaker 2 (16:51):
No, no, no, no, no.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
I'm not getting cold feet on Miami, but let's bunch
it in with some other games.
Speaker 4 (16:59):
I put this one on you because I honestly have
no interest in heavily watching this one.
Speaker 3 (17:03):
If you want to make this one of our five,
so be it.
Speaker 1 (17:05):
Oh, well then that's like, I, I, I actually, to
be honest, I feel that I've always felt better about
Tampa Bay.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
I've always felt better about Chicago, about Carolina.
Speaker 1 (17:17):
I feel much better about Houston right now than I
do about Miami. And so there are a couple other
games that I think are worth talking about and we
can sort of bunch them together. Like Minnesota, there are
some one and a halves out there against green Bay.
They're hosting green Bay. There's a lot of twos and
there's even some two and a half. So do I
(17:39):
like Minnesota? If we want to get a favorite in there,
is this the favorite we're.
Speaker 2 (17:43):
Going to get in?
Speaker 1 (17:44):
And then there's one more game that we got to
talk about that I think you and I both like
as the number has moved in our favor, probably more
than Miami. But let's talk about, let's shelve Miami for
a second. Bunch it with these next two games, Minnesota
minus one and a half hosting Green Bay.
Speaker 3 (18:03):
Yeah, nothing's changed for me.
Speaker 4 (18:05):
I told you I'm too close to this one, so
you'd have to decide on it because I really like Minnesota.
I like the matchup, and I think a lot of
books are in.
Speaker 3 (18:13):
Pie market as well.
Speaker 4 (18:14):
They're all moving at two and a half, so it's like, okay,
the pros are coming in on them. I know the
public is still going to be betting Green Bay for
good reason, though, right? Green Bay has proven exactly what
you're getting from them, but I still don't think the
general public knows how bad that defense is and how
bad the offensive line is for Green Bay.
Speaker 2 (18:33):
But yeah, I just, was that your cat?
Speaker 3 (18:35):
Yeah, man. She's just not.
Speaker 2 (18:37):
She's a goddamn menace. She is a menace.
Speaker 3 (18:40):
She is, man. But yeah, I just, I don't know
what to do here, brother. I'm too close to it. It's,
I can see it going wrong in so many different ways.
Speaker 4 (18:48):
Cause this Kyler Murray, but this is the moment at
home here with this team. I mean, under, under two still,
like you're still getting minus one and a half.
Speaker 3 (18:57):
So I, that's one favorite.
Speaker 4 (19:00):
I like, and we even talked to that, but like
another favorite I've, I've come around on in the last
two or three days is the Chiefs.
Speaker 3 (19:06):
So, yeah, if you're.
Speaker 4 (19:09):
Talking my two favorites, now that the Eagles are way
too blown up, way too public, Pittsburgh is way too
blown up, I've definitely shifted my focus to Minnesota and
the Chiefs are two favorites here that I like late.
Speaker 1 (19:21):
I don't have the Chiefs on the list, but the
last game I do have on the list that I
think we're aligned on, New York Giants currently plus three.
at home on Sunday night against Dallas. You know, this
is a game that to me epitomizes one of the
more fun things about tracking these and having the conversations
(19:41):
about these over the course of multiple shows during the week.
On Monday, the game was a two and a half.
We're both asking ourselves, is Dallas a trap here? We
don't love the Giants for the season, but this feels
like a good spot for them if we can get
to three.
Speaker 2 (19:57):
We're interested.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
On Thursday, we're listening to sharp calls. We're telling ourselves
this is getting to three. We're going to want to
play it at three. Now it's at three. at three,
it's three and a half at prediction markets trading at
about 55 cents.
Speaker 2 (20:12):
I feel really good about the giants.
Speaker 1 (20:13):
I feel better about the giants at three, three and
a half than I do about Miami at three and
a half. And that's my ego is not wrapped up
in what we decided was brass balls. My ego is
wrapped up in just winning the fucking games. So I
like the giants a lot more than I like Miami.
Speaker 3 (20:32):
Yeah. It's a reason that's, that is so good.
Speaker 4 (20:34):
The, Week one, Divisional Home Dogs being 11-5 against the
spread because this is what happens, right? These people just
keep betting up these road teams that are favorites. And
that's what's happening with Dallas. Like, Dallas is just getting
so much public love here. I knew it eventually would
shift up. So, I'm in total agreeance. These two teams
(20:55):
aren't that different, especially here in week one. Stylistically... the
Giants are going to be able to score the ball.
Like I know Dallas has improved their defense, but this
fully healthy Giants team was able to move the ball.
The question here has always been, is neighbors playing? That
to me is a partial reason why this number is moved.
Neighbors is a sneaky guy that could get sad here.
So I'm still betting. I'm still confident in this Giants
(21:18):
team to be able to win without them, but we'd
much prefer to have neighbors. He's just a total difference maker.
So that half point movement could be based off that
as well. And if neighbors is out, this will be
three and a half. So, You can just do the trade.
Go get the 3.5. Don't force bet a 3. You
can get the 3.5 now if you want to, or
you can be patient. Wait for the neighbor's news, because
(21:40):
once again, I don't think we touched 2.5 again. There's
no incentive here. They already are getting all the Dallas
money they need. They have no reason to drop the
number back down. I would love to see it. I
would love to see it go back to 2.5, because
that would mean we're in a really good position on
the Giants here, but happy to get the 3.5 if
they're able to do it right now. It's It's one
of my favorite bets, like you said, and I'm in
(22:02):
total agreeance it has to be one of our five.
Speaker 2 (22:04):
Yeah, so to me, the.
Speaker 1 (22:07):
Five, let's talk about them, are five official picks for
NFL Week 1. Again, we will get the contest taken
care of starting next week. So these are just five
official picks at the current numbers. Tampa Bay, plus three
and a half.
Speaker 2 (22:22):
We both love it. Carolina, plus three.
Speaker 1 (22:27):
That's the current line. We're still on it. New York Giants,
plus three, plus three and a half. You can get
both numbers.
Speaker 2 (22:36):
We love it.
Speaker 1 (22:37):
Houston, plus one and a half. Those are four that
we're locked in on. I feel like, to me, the
last one, I like Minnesota at minus one and a half.
Speaker 3 (22:51):
Let's do Minnesota. All right.
Speaker 2 (22:56):
Our final five.
Speaker 1 (22:58):
Tampa Bay, plus three and a half. Houston, plus 1.5. Carolina,
plus 3. Giants, let's give ourselves the hook, plus 3.5.
It's widely available at a lot of the prediction markets.
And then the final game, Minnesota, minus 1.5. That's the show.
Simon and I will return 7.30 p.m. Eastern tonight live
(23:21):
on the Sharper Square YouTube channel with our NFL Week
1 reactions after the late afternoon games wrap up.
Speaker 2 (23:27):
This has been Sharper Square.
Speaker 1 (23:28):
Sponsored by Polymarket, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch
or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video,
subscribe to the channel, download us on Spotify, Apple Pods,
wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe, leave us
five stars, say whatever you want.
Speaker 2 (23:43):
Feedback is a gift. Until tonight, love you.
Speaker 3 (23:49):
Ryan airs it out all alone.
Speaker 4 (23:51):
Juggled.
Speaker 3 (23:52):
Incomplete. Jones wide open.
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Pilot Market. We are
part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show
that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys
pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined, as always,
by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional bettor,
Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Hello, Simon.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
Chad, how we doing?
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Brother, we got a Sunday morning NFL Week 1 show.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
You and I are going to nail down our five
final official picks for the first week of the NFL season.
I know people have been asking a lot about the contest.
There have been so many legal and logistics issues with
the contest that we haven't confronted before. The contest will
be happening. I apologize that we didn't get it done
(00:48):
for week one. It will launch for week two. So
consider these our final five picks that we love at
this moment.
Speaker 2 (00:57):
With these lines. Simon, are you ready to roll?
Speaker 3 (01:01):
Let's do it.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
Here we go.
Speaker 1 (01:03):
Tampa Bay at Cincinnati. The Bucs are three and a
half point underdogs. This one was Chad's choice. I'm a
little concerned about this, Simon.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
You love it. I love it. But all of a sudden,
this number is moving to four.
Speaker 1 (01:15):
And it's been moving this direction all week, stubbornly hanging
on to three and a half. I've started to see
some fours pop up this morning, Sunday morning. You listed
it as one of your biggest bets. It's a dog
with a hook, an O-line we love, a QB we
love as a dog, and he's got his full complement
(01:36):
of weapons because it's week one and nobody's hurt.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
What are we missing? Are we getting trapped? Are we
being blind? Do we still love this?
Speaker 3 (01:47):
Yeah, it's too late to get off the boat at
this point, my friend. We're in the middle of the Atlantic.
We are all in. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (01:54):
So, yeah, I just look at it that I agree
with you. A weak one are always going to be
scuffed because we always see the worst case scenario, right?
Joe Burrow throws for 350 against a bad secondary of Tampa,
and we just get absolutely torched.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
But, you know, me and you talked about it.
Speaker 4 (02:10):
The Bucs have always been good to us when Baker
is healthy and has his full complement in offensive weapons. Now,
we don't know how they're going to be without Mike Evans, right?
No Mike Evans, to me, is the bigger thing we
haven't really talked much about. But you've seen when he's
been injured, Baker's always used these other guys and made
them stand out. So it's kind of going to be
an interesting test there. And, yeah, it really is just
(02:31):
a fade on the numbers. We do respect this Bengals
team and Joe Byrne, how good they are, but I
just can't see the Bucs being that much worse of
a team, honestly, as fully healthy as they.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
Are right now. So I'm excited for Reuben Bain as.
Speaker 4 (02:44):
Well, see that matchup against that offensive line for Cincy
because we've talked, I think they're better than people give
them respect to be. But this would be a great
test for them. Like to say, good front Vita Bay
is full go as well. So, yeah, we're going to
get a heavy dosage of Joe Burrow. And, you know,
it's going to be their plan, obviously, in this matchup tonight. So, yeah,
(03:05):
go to four. Like I've talked about, I know pros
who have bet this. They're not taking the number. They're
really betting the money line. So, to me, that's why
it's going up a little bit. Because people, especially the public,
they're going to be doing money line bets as well. So,
they're just throwing these in their parlays at this point.
I think everyone has the same mentality.
Speaker 3 (03:19):
We all think. Joe will win, but it won't be
by more than three. Right.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
Okay. Really quickly.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
I want to talk about two favorites or two of
the games. Probably not going to make it, but they
were on the conversation the whole week. So I just
want to close the loop on them. Cleveland at Jacksonville.
This line got down to seven and a half in
the middle of the week. It's now at plus nine
Cleveland plus nine in a lot of places. You've been
talking about the Browns since Tuesday and, I will defer
(03:49):
to you. I don't think the Browns plus nine ends
up being one of our final five. But tell me
if you're feeling so strong about the Browns at plus
nine right now.
Speaker 4 (04:03):
Yeah, I can't believe your discord, which will no doubt
be used against you at some day in court, came through,
not taking the jacks, took Pittsburgh's money line and that
paid off.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
Four votes, only four votes out of nearly 150.
Speaker 4 (04:16):
I mean, I think Pittsburgh went from minus 180 to
it's like minus.
Speaker 1 (04:21):
We're going to talk about that in a sec. Let's
let's finish with this game.
Speaker 3 (04:25):
Yeah, nothing's changed. I get why everyone's on the Jaguars. Strong.
What's going to be a train wreck? It could be terrible.
Speaker 4 (04:31):
I've just given out all the stats. I mean, one
of my favorite ones, too, especially now that it's moved.
So underdogs of a plus points in week one. 26-9
against the spread. So that would be the Browns and
the Cardinals.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
Yeah. It's just a week one play.
Speaker 4 (04:45):
You just play these ugly dogs because it's always so sloppy.
Could the Browns be blown out? Could the Cardinals get
blown out? Yeah, we all agree they're bottom of the
barrel teams, but it's just so stupid week one. So
to me, it's a Jaguars team that keeps getting the
love and hype from last year.
Speaker 3 (05:01):
People just love that team.
Speaker 4 (05:03):
They were so good to close out the year, and
you expect them to come out and just beat up
a Browns team that historically does not travel well. I
think I saw some really stupid stat. It was a
Watson stack. Cause he obviously played for the Texans and
it was like in his career, he's five and one
against the Jaguars. It's like, that's a different person. That
is not Sean Watson in any form. So I love
(05:23):
that people were asking me about that stat. It's like,
I wish that mattered. I love stupid stats like that.
Speaker 3 (05:27):
Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (05:29):
To me, it's, it's, it's, it could be the one,
the game that ruins people's survivor bracket, right? That would
be the shocker of the day. If the Browns could
win outright. That's why I just want to stay away.
That it's a little, Little fishy, too much love for
the public. So I'm on this number. Keep getting bigger.
I would love for it to get double digits because
the stats you get even better for double digit dogs
(05:49):
in week one.
Speaker 3 (05:49):
So yeah, let the public keep bending up this morning.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
Are you taking a little taste of the money line?
Speaker 3 (05:57):
Yeah, I already have.
Speaker 4 (05:59):
If you're doing any stupid little money line around Robin
Parlay or anything like that, just throw one or two
of the Browns into one of them. Because like we said,
It's just so much unknown what their defense is going
to be like and what their offense will be like.
I'll pay for the upside because I respect how good
they've drafted the last two years.
Speaker 1 (06:16):
You mentioned Pittsburgh a second ago, and I just want
to close the loop on this one as well. This
was a huge move on Thursday with the announcement that
Tua was going to be out with an oblique issue.
Cooper Rush is now going to be starting. The line
moved from 3.5 to 4.5, 5.5.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
It's now at 6.5.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
Someone had asked in the Discord– what our survivor pick was.
We chose the Steelers in survivor, and that was earlier
in the week. Our grouper bet of the week from
the Discord voted on people in the Discord was Steelers
(06:50):
at minus 178. We got that on the money line,
a great number before the news. Steelers are now minus
300 on the money line.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
Remember, if you want to join the Discord, go to readthenumber.com.
Speaker 1 (07:06):
Readthenumber.com. Pre-order the book, my book, The Number. Get an
invite to the Discord. The more books we sell now,
the more we are giving to St.
Speaker 2 (07:14):
Jude's Hospital. Go to readthenumber.com.
Speaker 1 (07:21):
Pittsburgh was a team that we liked as a favorite,
potentially to be in our final five.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
Obviously, at this number, it's going to be a pass
for us.
Speaker 4 (07:30):
Yeah, it's going to be tough to program a real
choice in their contest because it's going to be minus
three and a half in a lot of those contests.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
Right.
Speaker 4 (07:36):
It's going to be the most public side probably of
the week game-wise because it's a third-string quarterback going against
a highly paid and rated defense at home. So, yeah,
am I terrified? I'd much rather have been Tua. Tua,
I knew exactly what we were going to get. I
expected him to be knocked out within the second or
third quarter because of this problem. Cooper Rush now is
(07:58):
having his own back spasms. um, you know, I don't
know what kind of bed mattresses they're using or chairs
they're using over at that facilities, but if the owner's
a billionaire got to update whatever that is, because having
both quarterbacks have back spasms, very interesting.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
So, um, yeah, we're in.
Speaker 4 (08:16):
I'm dug in, I'm dug in on Pittsburgh's when I've
been bending for three months, I'd never knew this was
gonna be the most public side.
Speaker 3 (08:21):
I always thought it was kind of, uh, there's people
out there that love Atlanta.
Speaker 4 (08:24):
So I was like, people are always gonna be back
in that team, especially in this matchup.
Speaker 3 (08:28):
Um, this is insane.
Speaker 4 (08:30):
If you want to, If you want to know what
side to blindly take at a number, that probably is
going to work out for you. Plus six and a
half on Atlanta, that's a huge number. At this point,
you can't put money on Pittsburgh unless you're putting a
teaser or taking their money line still. I would not
recommend taking minus six and a half on this team
just because it's, once again, such a fluky week one,
(08:51):
and Porter's not playing as well. So now Drake London's
going up against their number two corner. Cooper Rush is
not putting fear at all into anybody, but you just saw–
on Thursday night, a backup quarterback come in and win
a game. All it takes is them to get hot
and their team to panic or have a bad game.
(09:11):
We're dug in here, Chad, but it being the most
bedside and everything like that money-wise is a little alarming.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
We're doing a new segment, Simon, and we're going to
talk about it with the Houston Texans hosting the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 2 (09:26):
It's our closing.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
Time trade of the week. presented by Polymarket. Look, we've
been talking about Houston a little bit more in every episode.
It's at one and a half as a trade on Polymarket,
but it's creeping. You can see people coming in on Houston.
(09:54):
The Texans as dogs were one of the games that
the Wise Guys emphasized in sharp calls compelled you to
make them one of your bigger bets. I have now
invested in Texans at plus one and a half Texans.
Speaker 2 (10:11):
On the money line.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
We included them in the money line underdog parlay with
the Giants and Closing time trade of the week presented
by Polymarket.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
I don't know how we ignore this one.
Speaker 3 (10:25):
Yeah, it's a true pros versus Joes.
Speaker 4 (10:28):
It's every pro group I talk to, every pro guy
I talk to as a single bettor is like, how
do you not take Houston here? And on the flip side,
it feels like everyone I talk to is like, well,
you're getting, you know, one of the best quarterbacks in
football under a field goal. You take him here. He
finds ways to win these type of games. So it
is a little scary too. I've seen, it feels like
(10:48):
anytime I'm in the, the books or wherever, you're seeing
a lot of love for this Texans team because of
what we just talked about.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
Everyone just knows this defense is a unit. Yeah, so.
Speaker 4 (11:02):
If he does win this game, credit will start this
season for Josh Allen because this is a true test
with a rookie head coach on the road here. I mean,
that's another part of it we haven't even talked about
that much where it's such a big deal for a
first-time head coach, and a D.C. 's first time calling
defense for the Bills, a whole new defensive unit on
(11:23):
the road here. We know the question here, Chad. Can
Stroud get us to 20 points or 21 points? It
feels like that's what's going to win this game. Either
team can get to 20 or 21. We'll trade this number.
Hopefully you get it before it drops down because I
agree with you. I think it's going to get back
down to half a point or maybe flip by the
(11:43):
time the game kicks off.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
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(12:06):
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You can buy cheap and ride the momentum back up.
Polymarket is so confident you'll never go back.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
To the old way. They're issuing a challenge. They're giving
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Chicago at Carolina. Carolina is now.
Speaker 2 (13:11):
A full field goal. dog at home. It had been
at two and a half.
Speaker 1 (13:16):
The public is finally starting to move this up a
little bit, which is what we expected.
Speaker 2 (13:23):
This was Simon Says.
Speaker 1 (13:24):
It's also on the list of one of the bigger
bets of the week. Reminder, Bryce Young, past two seasons,
17-9 as an underdog, 11 outright wins. The Bears defense,
on paper at least, truly suspect. Carolina's defense might not
be any better. But, humid day in Charlotte. Scoreboard could
(13:48):
light up. We still like Bryce in that spot. Nothing
has made me feel like we have to walk away
from this.
Speaker 4 (13:56):
No, it's going to be nice though for the Bears.
It's a true test of what their defense could be.
Because we've seen Bryce Young, he struggles against good defenses,
but he tears up bad defenses. I mean, I wish
he didn't say bad, right? He tore up the Rams
defense last year in the playoffs. I don't want to
put too much disrespect to Bryce Young, but But, yeah,
I knew coming in it was probably going to be
on the bigger public side, the Bears, because they were
(14:18):
just such a.
Speaker 3 (14:19):
Good team last year.
Speaker 4 (14:20):
And they're such a fun team to root for, especially
Ben Johnson, the head coach. He's just an offensive genius
of mine. So, Polymerica was one of the first places
to go to three and a half. So, it's another
place I've been betting a ton of money into or
trading a lot of money into. And I just, I
look at this number now and it's like, okay. I
thought every everywhere would be three and a half and
(14:41):
it's still not there. Like you said, it's still holding
at three, which is really books. Books aren't here to push.
So I always say to people, it's like, you know,
worst case scenario lands on the three. That's usually how
the books look at it because they just have so
many people at two and a half.
Speaker 3 (14:54):
So money line bets. So, um, yeah, not surprising.
Speaker 4 (14:58):
This is probably gonna be the one or two most
bedside and most books, uh, today and most traded sides
to it on most markets. So, um, I'm of the
standpoint here of just matchup wise. I think Bryce will
always keep us in it. Even, even when he gets down,
he's done offensive weapons right now. The Carolina team's healthy
enough to make this a real game. And flip side,
(15:20):
we'll see what Ben Johnson wants to do, but I
expect they're going to run for 150 yards. Like the
matchup wise bears are going to be able to get
theirs up front with their offensive unit there. I mean,
their strength is that O-line. So we will see what
happens this matchup here, but, Yeah, just a line that
probably should closer to two, maybe two and a half.
The fact that it's three, three and a half, it's
(15:42):
way too much value on Chicago.
Speaker 1 (15:44):
I think it's trading about 55 cents at the three
and a half on Polymarket right now. Our brass balls
trade of the week presented by Polymarket this week was
Miami at Las Vegas, three and a half. That's currently
trading at 54 cents. So it's more expensive to buy
(16:07):
the Miami side. I think we're going to have to
make a tough choice on this one. I'm curious about
where your.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
Head is at.
Speaker 1 (16:14):
My sense is that we have three we are locked
in on, potentially four. I wonder if at the end
of the day, Miami at three and a half is
going to be on the outside looking in.
Speaker 2 (16:26):
I'm still invested.
Speaker 1 (16:27):
I actually bet Miami on the money line here, but
I'm not sure we're going to get Miami at three
and a half as one of our final five. I
think both you and I feel more strongly about some
other ones, but maybe I'm misinterpreting, misreading.
Speaker 2 (16:41):
Your thoughts?
Speaker 3 (16:43):
Yeah, but this is your side. You're all in on this.
You wanted this to be brass balls, and now you
seem a little lukewarm on it. What's going on? Are
you getting a little cold feet on Miami here?
Speaker 2 (16:51):
No, no, no, no, no.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
I'm not getting cold feet on Miami, but let's bunch
it in with some other games.
Speaker 4 (16:59):
I put this one on you because I honestly have
no interest in heavily watching this one.
Speaker 3 (17:03):
If you want to make this one of our five,
so be it.
Speaker 1 (17:05):
Oh, well then that's like, I, I, I actually, to
be honest, I feel that I've always felt better about
Tampa Bay.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
I've always felt better about Chicago, about Carolina.
Speaker 1 (17:17):
I feel much better about Houston right now than I
do about Miami. And so there are a couple other
games that I think are worth talking about and we
can sort of bunch them together. Like Minnesota, there are
some one and a halves out there against green Bay.
They're hosting green Bay. There's a lot of twos and
there's even some two and a half. So do I
(17:39):
like Minnesota? If we want to get a favorite in there,
is this the favorite we're.
Speaker 2 (17:43):
Going to get in?
Speaker 1 (17:44):
And then there's one more game that we got to
talk about that I think you and I both like
as the number has moved in our favor, probably more
than Miami. But let's talk about, let's shelve Miami for
a second. Bunch it with these next two games, Minnesota
minus one and a half hosting Green Bay.
Speaker 3 (18:03):
Yeah, nothing's changed for me.
Speaker 4 (18:05):
I told you I'm too close to this one, so
you'd have to decide on it because I really like Minnesota.
I like the matchup, and I think a lot of
books are in.
Speaker 3 (18:13):
Pie market as well.
Speaker 4 (18:14):
They're all moving at two and a half, so it's like, okay,
the pros are coming in on them. I know the
public is still going to be betting Green Bay for
good reason, though, right? Green Bay has proven exactly what
you're getting from them, but I still don't think the
general public knows how bad that defense is and how
bad the offensive line is for Green Bay.
Speaker 2 (18:33):
But yeah, I just, was that your cat?
Speaker 3 (18:35):
Yeah, man. She's just not.
Speaker 2 (18:37):
She's a goddamn menace. She is a menace.
Speaker 3 (18:40):
She is, man. But yeah, I just, I don't know
what to do here, brother. I'm too close to it. It's,
I can see it going wrong in so many different ways.
Speaker 4 (18:48):
Cause this Kyler Murray, but this is the moment at
home here with this team. I mean, under, under two still,
like you're still getting minus one and a half.
Speaker 3 (18:57):
So I, that's one favorite.
Speaker 4 (19:00):
I like, and we even talked to that, but like
another favorite I've, I've come around on in the last
two or three days is the Chiefs.
Speaker 3 (19:06):
So, yeah, if you're.
Speaker 4 (19:09):
Talking my two favorites, now that the Eagles are way
too blown up, way too public, Pittsburgh is way too
blown up, I've definitely shifted my focus to Minnesota and
the Chiefs are two favorites here that I like late.
Speaker 1 (19:21):
I don't have the Chiefs on the list, but the
last game I do have on the list that I
think we're aligned on, New York Giants currently plus three.
at home on Sunday night against Dallas. You know, this
is a game that to me epitomizes one of the
more fun things about tracking these and having the conversations
(19:41):
about these over the course of multiple shows during the week.
On Monday, the game was a two and a half.
We're both asking ourselves, is Dallas a trap here? We
don't love the Giants for the season, but this feels
like a good spot for them if we can get
to three.
Speaker 2 (19:57):
We're interested.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
On Thursday, we're listening to sharp calls. We're telling ourselves
this is getting to three. We're going to want to
play it at three. Now it's at three. at three,
it's three and a half at prediction markets trading at
about 55 cents.
Speaker 2 (20:12):
I feel really good about the giants.
Speaker 1 (20:13):
I feel better about the giants at three, three and
a half than I do about Miami at three and
a half. And that's my ego is not wrapped up
in what we decided was brass balls. My ego is
wrapped up in just winning the fucking games. So I
like the giants a lot more than I like Miami.
Speaker 3 (20:32):
Yeah. It's a reason that's, that is so good.
Speaker 4 (20:34):
The, Week one, Divisional Home Dogs being 11-5 against the
spread because this is what happens, right? These people just
keep betting up these road teams that are favorites. And
that's what's happening with Dallas. Like, Dallas is just getting
so much public love here. I knew it eventually would
shift up. So, I'm in total agreeance. These two teams
(20:55):
aren't that different, especially here in week one. Stylistically... the
Giants are going to be able to score the ball.
Like I know Dallas has improved their defense, but this
fully healthy Giants team was able to move the ball.
The question here has always been, is neighbors playing? That
to me is a partial reason why this number is moved.
Neighbors is a sneaky guy that could get sad here.
So I'm still betting. I'm still confident in this Giants
(21:18):
team to be able to win without them, but we'd
much prefer to have neighbors. He's just a total difference maker.
So that half point movement could be based off that
as well. And if neighbors is out, this will be
three and a half. So, You can just do the trade.
Go get the 3.5. Don't force bet a 3. You
can get the 3.5 now if you want to, or
you can be patient. Wait for the neighbor's news, because
(21:40):
once again, I don't think we touched 2.5 again. There's
no incentive here. They already are getting all the Dallas
money they need. They have no reason to drop the
number back down. I would love to see it. I
would love to see it go back to 2.5, because
that would mean we're in a really good position on
the Giants here, but happy to get the 3.5 if
they're able to do it right now. It's It's one
of my favorite bets, like you said, and I'm in
(22:02):
total agreeance it has to be one of our five.
Speaker 2 (22:04):
Yeah, so to me, the.
Speaker 1 (22:07):
Five, let's talk about them, are five official picks for
NFL Week 1. Again, we will get the contest taken
care of starting next week. So these are just five
official picks at the current numbers. Tampa Bay, plus three
and a half.
Speaker 2 (22:22):
We both love it. Carolina, plus three.
Speaker 1 (22:27):
That's the current line. We're still on it. New York Giants,
plus three, plus three and a half. You can get
both numbers.
Speaker 2 (22:36):
We love it.
Speaker 1 (22:37):
Houston, plus one and a half. Those are four that
we're locked in on. I feel like, to me, the
last one, I like Minnesota at minus one and a half.
Speaker 3 (22:51):
Let's do Minnesota. All right.
Speaker 2 (22:56):
Our final five.
Speaker 1 (22:58):
Tampa Bay, plus three and a half. Houston, plus 1.5. Carolina,
plus 3. Giants, let's give ourselves the hook, plus 3.5.
It's widely available at a lot of the prediction markets.
And then the final game, Minnesota, minus 1.5. That's the show.
Simon and I will return 7.30 p.m. Eastern tonight live
(23:21):
on the Sharper Square YouTube channel with our NFL Week
1 reactions after the late afternoon games wrap up.
Speaker 2 (23:27):
This has been Sharper Square.
Speaker 1 (23:28):
Sponsored by Polymarket, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch
or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video,
subscribe to the channel, download us on Spotify, Apple Pods,
wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe, leave us
five stars, say whatever you want.
Speaker 2 (23:43):
Feedback is a gift. Until tonight, love you.
Speaker 3 (23:49):
Ryan airs it out all alone.
Speaker 4 (23:51):
Juggled.
Speaker 3 (23:52):
Incomplete. Jones wide open.
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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