July 14, 2026 • 41 mins
Major League Baseball's annual All-Star Break is here! Time to take step back, take stock, and build some winning bets! Baseball betting and analytics expert Sean Zerillo returns to outline the teams he's buying, the teams he's selling, and the prop bets and exotics he's wagering on for the second half of the MLB season. Together with hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter, they tackle the important questions.
Will the Seattle Mariners wake up and run away with the American League West? Will Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees learn some plate discipline, or will the Tampa Bay Rays capture the AL East? Could Bryce Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies make another postseason run? And can Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Dodgers continue their torrid pace through the rest of the summer? Check out this loaded episode for all the best bets, prop betting strategies, player props, and updated season win totals your rawhide heart desires! #Volume
0:00:00 - START
0:10:00 - JUICED BASEBALLS
0:21:00 - DETROIT TIGERS UPDATE
0:27:45 - PITTSBURGH PIRATES, CHICAGO WHITE SOX
0:34:00 - MLB AWARDS BEST BETS
0:38:00 - LOS ANGELES DODGERS UPDATE -
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard rods Bet. We
are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the
show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wives
guys pay attention.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
I am Chad Milman.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
I am joined as always, but my co host, my bff,
my companion, my compatre professional better Simon Hunter et O Simon, Chad.
Speaker 3 (00:26):
We are truly in the dog days of summer, my friend.
We got lists coming out, we got Hormone Derby's, we
got a little World Cup left, and thank god, two
weeks from now we get guys back in camp with
actual football. But until then, I'm enjoying these last few days.
Speaker 1 (00:44):
I did notice the other day ESPN put out its
top ten quarterbacks list, and so I know, I looked
at it and I thought to myself, I don't want
to digest it. I want to make my own lists
so I can surprise Simon. What did you think.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
Of the home run Derby?
Speaker 4 (01:04):
I loved it.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
I did end up going, but didn't go in that
We have like a thing called State Side right by
the stadium, because I was just I thought, all right,
I'll be able to get a discount because no joke,
I have a ticket from the last time they were here.
Speaker 4 (01:18):
It was at the Vet.
Speaker 3 (01:20):
I saw almost pousitive, was like Barry Bonds Mark Maguire
in that home run Derby. It was five bucks and
we were in the lower bowl. Jesus yeah, and I
was looking for just nosebleeders. The cheapest I could fine
was nine hundred.
Speaker 4 (01:33):
I was like, I'll just I'll just wait, are you
kidding me?
Speaker 3 (01:36):
Not kidding? Four hundred level? Chad, four hundred level. They
were looking for nine hundred, So I was like, all right,
I'll just I'll watch the State side. And it was electric.
I mean, I don't know about you.
Speaker 4 (01:44):
I thought it was gonna be a shoreber so uh yeah,
definitely was fired up.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
And it's it's again in Philadelphia's unique place. It's all
about where they put these locations. But the fact that
the fans were so into it, even if the setup
was stupid by Netflix, because I know TV honestly, wasn't
that enjoyable of experience for me.
Speaker 4 (02:02):
I don't know by other.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
People Netflix wise, But overall the atmosphere, I thought it
was so electric. I really feel like I came through
on TV.
Speaker 4 (02:09):
So it was fun.
Speaker 3 (02:11):
I really enjoyed that home run and I don't know
if it's the swings, you know, whatever it was, but yeah,
usually I don't I don't really get that far up
for it, but I feel like I had to go
because it was in my city and end up being
a pretty cool experience.
Speaker 1 (02:23):
Well look, I think that the best thing about it
are the Philly fans and how excited they got for
Schwarber and that Schwarber got to the final round, and
you know the fact that it took just a monstrous
blast for Schwarber to lose.
Speaker 2 (02:40):
I loved the atmosphere for it.
Speaker 1 (02:42):
I could like, I don't care that much about the
home run derby.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
I have found that.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
More and more my impartial fandom is about atmosphere. Like
I'm in the World Cup. I'm rooting for England because
I know that the clips on social media if England
wins or loses in the finals are going to be
(03:12):
at such peak ends of the spectrum, meaning it will
be the absolute worst devastation or the high of highs
because of England's fraught relationship and tortured relationship with international soccer.
Speaker 2 (03:30):
That's what I'm rooting for.
Speaker 1 (03:30):
And so I'm rooting for great, genuine emotional fan moments
more than I'm rooting for something on the field.
Speaker 4 (03:38):
Yeah, I don't want to. I don't want to.
Speaker 3 (03:39):
I don't want to expose myself too much because all
the pandemic come my way. But Chad knows I am
losing my mind right about England. I know you've been
e loving to say a wonderwall after every game.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
Yes, oh my god, it's That's what I'm talking about, though,
like or when they're singing Hey Jude, I don't know.
To me. This is a magical thing for social media
is it's power to share the joy of fandom, and
I think it does it as well as it does
anything else. And it's honestly, it's why I got into
the Phillies, like the Phillies fans rooting for Trey Turner
(04:11):
when he was struggling after his first year free agency
is the exemplar of how social media can inspire fandom,
and it shares the traditions and what it means to
be a fan of these teams globally, and I think
it inspires more people to be interested in be fans,
and I think that's amazing. I'm being totally I'm totally
(04:33):
like being sentimental. I am not being typical sort of
sarcastic here, like I just think it's it's awesome, So
I want I want that fandom reaction the.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
COVID part, right memory, Just in COVID, how we just
we always knew how much we cared about fans, and
then being there, yes, lintil Code, you were just like,
oh my god. It It literally makes up I guess
sixty percent same percent of the experience. I don't know
how to explain it, but it really does that connection
watching games with other people, and uh yeah for the
World Cup. I mean, maybe I'll save it for our
(05:06):
next show because it's there's just so much chad that
Americans wouln't understand. Between England and Argentina. I don't really
know who America's rival would be. I guess in sports,
I guess Canada. We kind of hate them because of
hockey and other things like that. But Russia, yeah, Russia
right right, right, But this this is like next level,
Like you know, these people have killed each other over.
Speaker 4 (05:29):
An island if you want to look into all that.
So yeah, it's Falklands. Yeah, yeah, So.
Speaker 2 (05:36):
I'm old enough to remember the Falkland Island.
Speaker 3 (05:39):
You really, Yeah, I don't know how many Americans really
remember that, but it was It's something I know they
still hold pretty close to their chest.
Speaker 4 (05:46):
And yeah, I Chad knows.
Speaker 3 (05:49):
I am someone that I won't make my feelings too
hard on the Germans here, but a lot of Germans
after World War Two went Argentina and that's why I
as an Englandman, we forever kind of hate Argentine in
many ways as well. So the dream scenario for this
World Cup, but we all know it's a little fixed
in so many ways. England, Argentina, Spain, France couldn't ask
(06:10):
for much more than that, Chad. So between that and
Homer Derby, like you're saying, it's been a great, great
fan experience, it feels like these last couple of.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
Weeks we are listen.
Speaker 1 (06:19):
You know, I'm a huge Tottenham Spurs fan, and so
because of that, and because of Harry Kane's legacy with Tottenham,
I am all in on England. That in my Anglo
file nature and the fact that my wife and I
met in London when we were students, I just have
a lot of affinity for English culture. So we're all
in on England. We're gonna hopefully be singing Wonderwall after
(06:40):
the finals on Sunday and certainly after this next match
against Argentina. But we were just talking about the home
runer every summer. Way back in March, we dove into
Major League Baseball betting the Major League Baseball season from
a betting perspective with our old pal Seans from the
Action Network, one of the sharpest, most obsessive baseball betting
(07:05):
minds anywhere, co host of the Wonderful Payoff Pitch podcast.
He looks Simon. He looks like an angel for those
watching on YouTube. It's only because he's sitting in his
backyard because the construction in his house was so loud
we sent him into the back yard. Shonzillo, Welcome back, buddy.
(07:28):
You listen, we're going to get to this in the show.
You gave out some bets that are trending towards winners,
so I'm thrilled for you. And I don't don't get
into him yet because we're going to talk about him
on the show.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
But well done, Shonzarella.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (07:45):
I enjoyed the Hermer on Derby last night. Really liked
the new format.
Speaker 6 (07:48):
I think they got to stick with that format, Maybe
get rid of the magenta colored baseballs because that seemed
to be a little bit difficult for the hitters to
pick up on, potentially considering nobody homewred on them until
the final round and then for Jordan Walker if you've
been able to catch online. So all the extra baseballs,
all the bonus base balls were supposed to be magenta.
Speaker 5 (08:08):
The home run that Jordan Walker hit to end the
night was white.
Speaker 6 (08:11):
So there's a bit of controversy surrounding the fact that
Jordan Walker was not being fed the correct baseballs during
his little run in the bonus round. But completely agree,
love the atmosphere, thought the Philly fans were electric. Them
booing Contreras and Walker throughout their final rounds against Shober
was absolutely electrifying. Love the format, just absolutely hated the
Netflix broadcast seem to have no feel for the rules,
(08:34):
seem to have no feel for the moment. There was
no leaderboard on the screen telling you how anybody was
Doing's definitely a lot of kinks to work out on
the Netflix front. The boxing ring at second base kind
of matching their cringe energy from the Giants Yankees opening
day when they had like the trolley carts in the
subway car out and left and right field. So I
think Netflix doing a little bit too much on the
(08:54):
movie production end.
Speaker 5 (08:56):
Just leave the game as is.
Speaker 6 (08:57):
You don't need to do too much, but give us
the information that actually helps make the inf event a
little bit more informative as you're watching it.
Speaker 1 (09:04):
Not a lot of the lovers of the Netflix broadcasts
so far in baseball for Giants, Yankees or for home
run Derby, So look, they've they got to figure that
one out. But listen, we're not talking about broadcasts here.
We're talking about betting. It is the MLB All Star
Game tonight, annual right of passage, the unofficial midway point
of a very long baseball season.
Speaker 2 (09:26):
Sean, I'm so glad you're here.
Speaker 1 (09:30):
Let's talk about the actual baseballs, because in the spring
you told us about differences and variations that could be
possible in the balls. You're always on top of the balls.
Major League Baseball uses over the course of the season
different balls. They change the balls.
Speaker 2 (09:52):
Catch us up.
Speaker 1 (09:54):
Where is where does the balls stand right now?
Speaker 6 (09:56):
I'm not going to go around telling people that I'm
always on top of the balls. We'll find a different
way to phrase that, But it does seem like we've
had a change to the baseballs in twenty twenty six,
and that now makes five times I believe in the
past seven years where we have evidence, we have people
slicing into the baseballs physically proving that they're different. Now,
Major League Baseball came out a few weeks ago after
(10:20):
I started putting out articles investigating it further. You know,
sarahs was kind of the one who initially drove the
conversation on it, and then I took it a step
further in terms of my research. But essentially, the balls
are flying further. You can only explain away about a
third to a half of the further carry due to weather.
The biggest difference and the biggest, most obvious like change
(10:43):
that immediately stands out in dome stadiums, so you can
filter out most of the weather impact. At dome stadiums.
There is still some of a weather impact as temperatures increase,
the humidity increases, et cetera. But in the past five
years or so, as the way warms up in dome stadiums,
you only see an increase in ball flight by about
(11:05):
a foot and a half. The maximum we've seen in
any year was three feet. This year it's jumped nine feet,
and it happened in the middle of the season, at
about the end of May, right around Memorial Day. The
ball essentially overnight started flying nine feet further. And you
can't tell me that the weather warmed up enough to
(11:27):
have caused a nine foot increase. That would be like
a thirty degree temperature increase. About fifteen temperatures is equivalent
to four feet. But what you can track, and I
talked about this in the preseason, is the drag coefficient data,
which Major League Baseball makes readily available on baseballsavant dot com. Essentially,
the range of outcomes of drag this year, and each
(11:48):
point of drag is worth four feet of ball flight.
The range of drag this year has fluctuated by as
many as four points, four tenths of a point, what
have you. So essentially that's the difference between sixteen feet
plus or minus from one baseball to the next, and
it stabilized essentially now in July, below the lowest point
(12:09):
it hit last year. So the baseballs are obviously different.
Major Leagues Baseball's excuse for this, or their way of
explaining this away was to say that the oils from
inside of the baseball had leaked out, had caused some
sort of yellow staining on the outside of the ball.
But essentially they're saying that, yes, there's an issue. We
tested these balls independently. We didn't find anything specific wrong
(12:33):
with them, and therefore we consider them to be viable
for play. But what we are seeing is on the field,
catchers are tossing out way more balls. You know that
they're being given by the umpire. They're throwing them out
of play because they don't think the quality is up
to standards. We know that MLB bought Rawlings in twenty
nineteen to gain better control over the process of manufacturing
(12:54):
the balls. Clearly, there's still going to be some variants
from one ball to the next because they're hands sewn,
but there's never been this much variance within one particular year.
So the main theories are here. Baseball started the year
with the baseballs from last year. As the season has
gone on, they started mixing in more baseballs that were
meant for this season, and we've seen drag decrease as
(13:16):
a result, and now kind of settle back in a
neutral point because we're using all the baseballs that were
meant for twenty twenty six. But the other main takeaway
from MLB's statement is the fact that, hey, we realize
this was a problem. We alerted all these teams in February.
They didn't say whether they alerted sportsbooks in February. They
didn't notify the public in February. They just started talking
(13:36):
about it in June. But the other opshot is they
said that they're going to be cycling in another new
match of baseballs by the end of this year, if
not early next year. So we already have a built
in excuse when MLB does change the baseballs and wants
to mess with the baseballs in the postseason, which they've
been caught doing in the past, they've already built an
excuse that they're going to be changing the baseballs again
(13:59):
in September. So I don't know how those baseballs are
going to play. Presumably they will be less bouncy than
the ones that we're currently seeing in play. But the
upshot is the balls are traveling about another five feet
further than you would expect just based upon the weather
increases as you would go into the season, and as
a result, the home run rate and run scoring has
been at its highest level since twenty nineteen.
Speaker 1 (14:20):
Simon, do you know what player who had been slumping
terribly went on a Ruthiean tear around the same time.
The baseballs seem to be flying out of ballparks at
a prodigious rate.
Speaker 4 (14:35):
I have no idea.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
What is it, Phillies, Pete Crow, Armstrong, Sean, how much
do you think PCA's explosion had to do with those balls?
And if you've seen a change since sort of the
balls have started to drift back a little bit.
Speaker 6 (14:55):
Yeah, I don't think it's necessarily for PCA specifically, and
some of the Cubs players specifically. You know you've seen
Danzeby Swanson go on that crazy run of homers and ribbies.
They played a lot of games at Wrigley recently with
totals of twelve and a half thirteen and a half,
where the wind was blowing out aggressively, the temperatures were
in the ninety degrees. I would say in July the
weather's actually been more temperate throughout the country than it
(15:16):
was in June. I never expected to become a meteorologist,
or at least an amateur meteorologist in terms of doing
my job handicapping baseball, but I have to pay attention
to the temperatures and the weather everywhere on a daily basis.
I think July has been a little bit more temperate
than June was, but I do think the Cubs at
home have had a lot of really good offensive weather.
Speaker 5 (15:34):
That is how PCA.
Speaker 6 (15:35):
I also think PCA is just the very streaky player
who's going to go through a lot of big hot
streaks and cold streaks throughout his career just because of
the swing decisions he makes, the lack of end zone
contact that he can have at times. He has crazy power,
crazy speed, crazy athleticism, but the bat on ball skills
are going to fluctuate a little bit, and I think
that could lead to streakiness. But overall, you know, you
(15:57):
are seeing home run per fly ball increase, home run
rates increase, and the way that I can say, hey,
this isn't validated by the bounce. I shouldn't have said
the bounciness of the ball, because that's not actually what's happening.
That was an incorrect phrase that I just used. It's
not that the balls are bouncy specifically, It's not that
the balls are bouncy. If they want to make the
(16:18):
balls bounce here, they would increase the core of the baseball,
which is like essentially the middle of the baseball, like
the core of the earth, but it's spelled cor That's
how bouncy the ball is off of the bat. And
what that would do if they wanted to make the
balls jumpier, you would see it show up an exit
velocity figures. The balls would be coming off of the
(16:39):
bat hotter, which in turn would make them fly further.
That's not what's happening here. What's happening is the balls
are being hit just as hard, if not less hard
than they were in June as compared to May and April,
but they're flying further in the air. The resistance on
them as they're carrying in the air is not there
as much. And I've pulled several examples where balls were
hit same batted ball, project exit velocity, distance path on
(17:03):
the field, same weather in those games, and some balls
from April May in the same temperatures as they were
in June, we're flying forty feet further, forty five feet
further in June. And you know, there is some things
that you have to quantify for like backspin versus front spin.
There's things that you don't necessarily show up immediately in
the stackass data that could slightly affect that, but it's
(17:25):
been too dramatic in terms of the impact. And again
just reverting to the indoor parks thing in the dome stadiums,
the Ranger Stadium in particular, Global Life Park had become
over the past couple of years the most pitcher friendly
environment in baseball. It had gone from being a hitter
friendly park when they won the World Series all the
way back to on the level of t Mobile Park
(17:48):
in Seattle. You know, the run scoring environment in Texas
for the past two years had basically been fifteen percent
below the major league average. Right around that time that
I pointed out that May twenty fifth time, Texas started
seeing a huge increase in five ball distance the Unders,
which had hit there at like a sixty five percent clip.
Not kidding, it had been like sixty five percent for
(18:10):
two years. Because the park factor keeps fluctuating so dramatically
there that the market has not been able to catch
up to how low it got there, and unders were
just hitting at a ridiculous clip.
Speaker 5 (18:20):
Every total was like a run too high.
Speaker 6 (18:22):
Now it's come back and it's become an overpark very aggressively.
Over the past six weeks, it's been one of the
best over parks in baseball because either the baseballs are different,
or they turned off the humid or there or a
combination of both. And that is the other point I
didn't emphasize earlier. I think there is a possibility, based
on the fact that I'm seeing different data and different
(18:43):
ballflight data from different parks. MLB standardized tudors in parks,
and I believe twenty twenty one, I think there is
a chance that they allowed some of these teams to
turn them off in secret. I think that's very much
a possibility, given how the ball does not seem to
be getting that extra carry at.
Speaker 5 (19:01):
All parks across the board.
Speaker 6 (19:04):
Uniformly, it does seem like even in the dome stadiums,
it's actually flying a little bit further than you would
expect outdoors. So I do think there's a chance, on
top of the baseball's being different, that there may have
been a change in HUT or policy, either from MLB
or from some of these teams internally, that just said
we're not going to use the human or like we're
supposed to and as a result, they're getting increased offense
(19:25):
in those parks.
Speaker 3 (19:26):
From our last show when you talked without Baseballs, I
knew a professional group that went out and bought baseballs
from like twenty twenty five years ago off eBay and
they cut all of them open and try to look
at if there's differences from balls right now and then
home run balls people.
Speaker 4 (19:40):
Are catching right now and then selling online. And I
just be in contact with them.
Speaker 3 (19:44):
Their theory about it was kind of interesting about how
the baseballs have changed in the last twenty five years,
the inside of them, I should say. But I just
love that they did it because of our show. It's like,
you know, they got a couple thousand dollars to burn,
why not buy these old balls to see if there's
actually a difference.
Speaker 5 (19:59):
But yeah, interesting theory.
Speaker 6 (20:03):
Most interesting theory about the steroid era is not that
it was just guys roiding. It was that guys were
rooting and they juiced the baseballs, which led to the
dramatic increase in home runs. The Barry Bond seventy plus
home run season was probably not just the byproduct of
Barry Bonds taking all of the HDH known to man
and having his head swell like three times the size
(20:25):
that it should. But also that MLB was probably introducing
juice balls during those seasons, which is why so many
players were hitting thirty home runs forty home runs, So
that is that is an interesting thing to look at
in hindsight, and if they were buying balls from twenty
five years ago, that does align with the the steroid
era and when they may have been juicing them, so
that it's very interesting.
Speaker 4 (20:44):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (20:44):
Yeah, again, I just love how crazy people are where
It's like they listen to the show and I was like,
I love the idea of doing that.
Speaker 4 (20:50):
But yeah, like I was saying, just you came on,
you gave it a.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
Bunch of great stuff. Obviously, you know, we talked about Detroit,
the pitching staff, all of it. How are you feeling
right now with your expectations on bets you made in March?
Speaker 5 (21:04):
Yeah, in pretty good positions.
Speaker 6 (21:06):
On the awards markets gave out both current Rookie of
the Year favorites have Dylan Ces at long odds for Alsayong,
have Gordon Alvarez at long odds for al MVP. I think,
you know, with regards to the Tigers, specifically that you
bring them up. I've been adamant that the Tigers shouldn't sell.
The Tiger's got eleven games, ten games below the division
(21:27):
leader in the AL Central. I think they've closed the
gap now to four wins at the All Star Break
Tark School when on the IL came back for them,
it seems like they're still shopping him. I've maintained that
the Tigers should not sell, and if they do not sell,
I think their viable contender in the American League right now.
The AL Central winner only projects to finish with the
round eighty three wins. The AL West winner only projects
(21:48):
to finish with the round eighty four wins. So not
only is their path back for the Tigers in the division,
there's a path for the Tigers still to get the
number two seed in the American League behind the AL
East winner, because, like I say said, either the ALE
Central winner or the ALE West winner probably ain't get
more than eighty five wins. So whoever wins that division
is going to have a very good chance at finishing
with one of the top two seedson getting a buye.
(22:10):
And as a result, you know, if you're telling me
you're going into Round two and Trek scoopl is going
to be starting two out of your five games in
that series and then three pitching in three out of
your seven games at a potential ALCS and World Series.
Tigers remain a very viable contender. I just think they're
having the inverse season that they had last year. Last year,
they got out to a huge lead, collapsed it, lost
(22:30):
the division, ended up beating the team who overtook them
in the playoffs. This year, I think they started out
extremely poorly. Everything went wrong, and now they're finally picking
up steam like they did a few years ago. It's
one of the best second half teams in baseball a
couple of years ago when they went on a big run.
But I think they are basically having the inverse season
that they had last year, and they will be there,
(22:51):
in my opinion, in the end if they don't sell
Trek Scooble the team I like from a futures perspective.
There's not many the team that I still like from
a futures perspective. For the two teams, the Brewers and
the Rays, because these are teams who typically do not
add come trade deadline time, I think they will both
be adding this year, not only because they've kind of
alluded to the fact that they would publicate. The Rays
also have a new ownership group. The Brewers have the
(23:13):
number one farm system in baseball, and they've just locked
up two of their top guys, Cooper Pratt and Luis Lara,
whom they both brought to the big leagues. They also
have the number one prospect in baseball in Jezus Made,
So anybody else in that farm system I think is
fair game for the Brewers to trade, and I think
they may go out and add pieces. I have some
concerns right now, slightly because Brandon Woodroff seems like he
(23:33):
got hurt last week. Jakob Mazerowski seems like he may
be dealing with some arm soreness. And if you're going
to be betting on the Brewers to take down the
Daughters in October.
Speaker 5 (23:41):
You need at least three.
Speaker 6 (23:43):
You need Maserowski, but you probably need at least two
of three of Kyle Harrison, Brandon Woodroff, and Logan Henderson
as well.
Speaker 5 (23:49):
Would love to have.
Speaker 6 (23:50):
All four, but I do think the Brewers are going
to add at the trade deadline. Just public projection wise,
The projections do not like them right now. They say
the Cubs are the value bet in the NL Central
I have Brewers positions I'm pretty comfortable with. Gave them
out at eight to one in the NL a few
weeks ago. I think that is a team though, that
you may be able to bet come playoff time. Just
make sure everybody's healthy. The team who I think is
going to get better in the next couple weeks, definitively
(24:12):
is the Raise the Rays. Like I said, of a
new ownership group, they've never been willing to spend in
their history. They have a deep prospect pool they're willing
to trade from. And we're probably going to lock out
next year. It's an unfortunate reality, but we're likelier than
not to lock out for at least part of the
twenty twenty seventh season. And I think any of these
teams who are in contention are going if I'm going
(24:33):
to lose a year of prospect development anyway in the
minor leagues, right If I'm not going to see these
guys until twenty twenty eight at best, why wouldn't I
trade them now and catch them in when not, only
do I not know what they're going to be, but
losing that year of minor league development next year could
be absolutely crucial and devastating because we saw it affect
a lot of prospects during the COVID year. So I
(24:55):
think the Rays are going to add at the trade deadline.
Right now, I make them about thirteen to one to
win the World Series, five to one to win the
Ale Pennant. You can get as high as seventeen to
one and plus five fifty, respectively. I think with Aaron
Judge's injury news coming out at some point during this week,
you'll know whether Judge is going to be back soon,
whether it's going to be longer until he comes back.
(25:16):
If it's longer until he comes back, I actually think
the Yankees are going to be more conservative at the
trade deadline and not push. If he is going to
come back sooner, I think the Yankees are going to
be more aggressive and try to add pieces around him.
So maybe the timing is the wait for that Aaron
Judge injury news before you pile on, potentially to the
raise Ale Pennant and World Series bets. But I think
this team is going to look a lot better in
(25:36):
a few weeks than it does right now, and the
American League is completely wide open. I like whoever comes
out of the NL between the Braves, the Dodgers, and
the Brewers, I think, or the Phillies. I think any
of those teams will be a better option in the
World Series than whatever the ALE produces. So I'd probably
be targeting Pennant bets as opposed to the World Series bets.
But the Rays of the one team I'm really keeping
a close eye on right now. I've been on them
(25:57):
all year, thought they were underrated all year, but now
I'm actually starting to take the more seriously as a
championship contender.
Speaker 1 (26:03):
Let's do a quick word from hard Rock and then
I want to do an up and a down with Zrilla.
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New Jersey, and Tennessee. All right, Sean Chicago White Sox
surprise darlings of Major League Baseball. Yeah, Paul Skians struggling.
(28:19):
I think more than anyone would have expected. Give me
your why the White Sox are up?
Speaker 2 (28:26):
And can they maintain?
Speaker 1 (28:28):
And your what's happening with Skiings?
Speaker 2 (28:31):
And will he turn it around?
Speaker 5 (28:33):
Yeah? The White Sox.
Speaker 6 (28:34):
Chris Getz has done a phenomenal job at making sure
there's as few weaknesses as possible on a roster. There's
a lot of ways you can build teams when you're
trying to go from dregs of Major League Baseball to
league average being a five hundred team. One of the
easiest ways to do that is just to make sure
you don't have bad players. But on top of that,
(28:55):
their player development has been pretty tremendous because, uh, Colson
Montgomery was a guy who a lot of people thought
the swing was not correct. A lot of prospect evaluators
thought he was going to struggle immensely at the big
league level because he just couldn't figure out the swing.
He was really struggling through the early part of last season,
eventually figured it out, hit twenty one home runs in
(29:17):
about seventy games, and this year he looks like he's
maintaining a pretty similar pace in terms of projecting out
to like a.
Speaker 5 (29:23):
Thirty five or forty homer guy.
Speaker 6 (29:25):
Getting Murakami there was obviously the big addition that has
really propelled them up, but they ended up missing him
for a large part of this year and still played
pretty well without him. So I'd say the player development,
the GM all working in concert have done a phenomenal
job lifting this team from the bottom of the league
to average. But that said, I think this is an
(29:47):
average team and in terms of betting them to make
or miss the playoff right now, it's definitively miss. I
make them about minus one thirty. You can get them
an even money to miss the playoffs, So I would
probably be fading the White Socks at this point forward.
I don't think they're a team who's going to add
at the trade dyn line and start giving up prospect
pieces for a team that is not necessarily a World
(30:08):
Series contender yet. But obviously like the way they're trending.
I think once you see Hagen Smith come up to
this roster, once he's ready, you can start taking this
team even a little bit more seriously next season, because
pitching is their biggest need, and he looks like he's
a potential frontline starter for them if he could figure
out the command piece. But overall, if I'm betting anything
on the White Sox right now, it would be to
(30:29):
miss the playoffs at around even money to minus one twenty.
Speaker 5 (30:32):
But this team definitely is the juice. I've watched them
all year.
Speaker 6 (30:35):
There is some magic there on the South side, and
I don't necessarily love taking a stand against them at
this point, but given Detroit's ability to come back in
that division, Cleveland's ability to.
Speaker 5 (30:47):
Come back in that division.
Speaker 6 (30:48):
The projections love the Minnesota Twins, who are sitting right
around five hundred, but the Twins we know will not
be adding at the deadline, given their ownership troubles over
last offseason the fact that they didn't spend anything in
free agency. So I think there are three teams who
could take down the White Sox and eliminate them, and
as a result, even money looks like a pretty good
price to bet against them. The Pirates are the opposite.
The Pirates schemes looks injured. You in the spin rate
(31:12):
on Skins fourcing fastball is declining in virtually every start,
which is a pretty big indicator of injury. Bubba Chandler
has not developed this year. Mitch Keller gets worse in
the second half of every season, but their lineup is
a lot better than it has been in previous years.
Their bullpen is pretty capable. I just don't necessarily see,
other than Connor Griffin returning from injury, a lot of
(31:34):
young contributors coming up and helping this Pirates roster. Seth Fernandez,
who's maybe the top pitching prospect of the minors, seems
like he's still a couple of years away, so the
Pirates aren't going to add pieces. The Pirates may have
a couple of banged up pitchers, but the projections like
them to make the playoffs right now. I make them
about plus two fifty, and I think you can get
them at plus three to fifty. Let me actually just
(31:54):
pull up that actual number the Pirates. I make them
plus one ninety and you can get them as high
as plus two fifties, so they look like the potential
value about to make the playoffs. The other team, I'd
point out who stands as the biggest playoff value bet
right now, and that's the best market. If you're looking
for markets to dive into that have the biggest edges
positive and negative. You know teams you want to fade
from a playoff perspective, and at the no teams you
(32:16):
want to bet.
Speaker 5 (32:16):
The yes on.
Speaker 6 (32:17):
The biggest market four edges right now is make or
miss playoff bye by far way more than Division or
World Series. That's where I'd focus my money and attention.
If you're looking to build the portfolio right now, the
team that shows the biggest edge either yes or no,
is the orioles to make the playoffs. I make them
about plus two to eighty five. You can get them
at four to one. I believe they're sitting just a
couple of games off of the pace two and a
(32:39):
half games, two games off the pace in the AL
wild card race, and that is a team I could
see surprisingly adding despite the fact that they're sitting below
five hundred right now. They just have an owner who
wants to be aggressive, who wants to win.
Speaker 1 (32:50):
Now.
Speaker 6 (32:50):
They had the Pete Alonso signing this offseason. Pete seems
like he's finally heating up a little bit as the
season has gone along too. But yeah, the Orioles to
make the Pirates, to make the White Sox to miss,
and then maybe the Guardians to miss as well.
Speaker 5 (33:05):
I would choose between the Guardians and White Sox.
Speaker 6 (33:08):
But everything else that I show value on is something
that you have to lay, like minus three hundred or
higher on. I'm trying to stick in the more reasonable
plus money price ranges here in terms of analyzing these bets.
But yeah'd say the biggest the biggest edge if you
want to talk about the pure biggest edge if you
want a parlay piece Potter is to miss. I make
minus six hundred. That's minus three eighty But that was
a bet I gave out in the preseason. I gave
(33:29):
out on this show, and I think minus one ten
minus one fifty, so certainly have gained value there, gain
Vello and the Ashes to miss the playoffs in pretty
good position on a lot of these bets. I just
need by Mariners and Tigers, the Visional tickets to potentially
come through that would really bring everything together.
Speaker 3 (33:45):
Is there any bets like for our listeners to get on, like,
you know, player wise, you know Cy Young Awards, anything
MVP wise that you like next half.
Speaker 6 (33:54):
Yeah, I'd say the biggest value bet in any of
the awards markets is probably it's probably Bobby Wit to
win al MVP at about five to one. I make
him plus three eighty five. This is just going to
be an interesting vote because Jordon Alvarez is not going
(34:14):
to be the al war leader, and typically War the
war leader and vote share correlates at like a seventy
percent clip. But the one thing I highlighted in terms
of my preseason analysis, and I gave out Jordon in
the preseason at thirty five to one I set or
forty to one.
Speaker 5 (34:28):
I highlighted the.
Speaker 6 (34:29):
Fact that ops and OPS ranking is the one thing
that can kind of override wins above replacement. So Wit
is probably going to finish with eight wins above replacement,
Jordon closer to six and a half six point three.
But Jordon is going to have one thousand ops. Wit
is going to have an eight to fifty ops. Neither
of them are going to be on winning teams. I
think if Witt was on a winning team, that may
(34:52):
be a little bit of a tiebreaker for him, But
I do think looking at the history of voting, if
Witt has a two win lead and wins Abu replacement,
he also less injury prone than Jordon. Jordon has been
very injury prone throughout his career, so over the final
two and a half months, I'd say he's substantially likelier
to get hurt than Wit is. So I think Wit
at five to one would be the value bet among
(35:12):
all the awards markets right now. The guy who's popped
up consistently for me though throughout the season is Parker
Messick to win AL Rookie the Year Again. I gave
out McGonagall on this show. McGonagall is in a great spot.
He's currently like minus two fifty in the market. I
make him minus two sixty, so it's not an actionable bet,
but I do show value on.
Speaker 5 (35:30):
Him if McGonagall gets hurt at some point.
Speaker 6 (35:32):
The rest of the way, everybody's assuming kind of that
a Kamoto from the Jays Urmurakami from the White Sox
is gonna win that award. Messick projects right now as
the wins above replacement leader behind McGonagall, and I make
him about twelve to one. You can get him as
high as thirty to one. So if you want a
small stab Parker Messick is he's gonna get the innings.
(35:53):
He threw about one hundred and forty innings between the
miners and majors last season. He's going to finish around
one to ninety. I think he's one of the best
pitchers in the American League. He's going to be in
the AlSi Young Becks as well. He's not going to
end up winning the award, but he'be he top five
top six in ALSA Young and I think if McGonagall
doesn't win AL Rookie, he's probably my favorite candidate, even
above all the hitters that you have in the al
(36:15):
JJ Weatherholp. I gave him out in the preseason as
well at six to one. He's the NL favorite. I
make him minus two hundred. You can can currently get
him at minus one fifty five, So weather Hold I
would lay the juice. He stands to have a big
WAR lead at the end of the season. He might
already be the best defender in baseball, which is shocking
because Bryce Terrang, who plays his position for the Brewers
in his division, has been one of, if not the
(36:37):
best defender in baseball for a few years. Weather holp
same position already maybe has overtaken Bryce Terrang. So as
a result, even though weather Holt has kind of comparable
offensive stats the guys like Carson BEng or other hitters
in the NL, his defensive quality is like boosting him
up dramatically. And WAR correlates even more strongly to Rookie
of the Year than it does to MVP. So weather Holt,
(37:00):
Parker Massik would be my choices. If I'm placing Rookie
of Year bets right now. Witt would be among the
ale MVP on LMBP, and then the Sygong Markets I
think would be the only guy pull the trigger on there.
Because I like Joe, Ryan and the Ale, but I
think he's likely to get traded from the Twins, or
at least likely or to get traded then end up
still on his team. So yeah, that's where i'd go
(37:23):
with my money from a player futures perspective at this point,
and then the Rays would be the team I would
target from a team perspective.
Speaker 1 (37:29):
Zarrillo, We've gone an entire show haven't mentioned the team
with the best record in baseball. The Dodgers have sixty
one wins, despite injuries to Otani and others. Before the
season began, you came on the show and said, this
is a team that is built to win in the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (37:52):
They don't really care about the regular season.
Speaker 1 (37:54):
And here they are dominating what was supposed to be
a competitive NL West and crushing in the National League.
Is all this moot because it's the Dodgers World Series
to win.
Speaker 6 (38:08):
Anyways, Maybe, like I said, I think that there's one
team in the NL who can take them down.
Speaker 5 (38:15):
It's probably the Brewers.
Speaker 6 (38:17):
Just because the Brewers, by the time they got to
the playoffs last year, Miserowski wasn't available to start for them.
They didn't have the pitching quality, the starting pitching quality
that they have this year. But the Dodgers, to your point,
have not played their best team and they still have
the best record in baseball. They have almost they have
half of their playoff rotation on the il Tyler Glasnow
(38:39):
and Blake Snell have given them virtually nothing this year.
Otani is dealing with an injury right now, but again,
because they have such a big lead in their division,
there's no lead, no need to push them. He did
get Injectionery is getting an injection over the All Star break.
That is something to really keep a close eye on,
because the Dodgers could shuck down Otani till the playoffs
(38:59):
if they really needed to. If they felt it was
necessary to preserve his health for the postseason, they would
shut him down and that would open the door for
PCA or Juan Soto to win the nl MVP, and
the PCA one Sodo debate would be the exact same
That would actually make it interesting because the PCA one
soda debate is literally the exact same debate. As Bobby
(39:21):
witten yord on Sodo has the one thousand plus ops,
He's going to finish two war behind PCA PCA is
going to have the eight to fifty ops but have
the big wins b of a replacement lead on Soto.
But the difference between the NL and the AL is
that PCA is on a winning team.
Speaker 5 (39:38):
Sodo is not.
Speaker 6 (39:39):
Neither the AL guys are on winning teams. So I
think the winning team thing might tiebreak for PCA if
it came down to those two guys. But it's worth
noting because Otani right now skip the All Star Game
because he's dealing with an injury. He's getting an injection
and there's a non zero chance that he could miss
significant time the rest of the way. He may still
win a NLMBP even if he doesn't play another game
(40:00):
this season. That's how good show Heotani is and all
the stats he's put up to this point. But it
is worth noting. But yeah, the Dodgers are slow playing
it for the postseason. They're probably gonna make additions. I
don't think they'll get Trek Scooble, even though they have
one of the most loaded firm systems in baseball. They
just have enough pitching coming back that they may not
even be their biggest need. They would probably be looking
(40:21):
up to shure up the bottom of their lineup, maybe
get a better second basement targeting can tell Marte something
like that. But yeah, this team's loaded. They haven't even
played their best team yet. I think the Brewers could
potentially take them down. I'm not sure who I like
in the ALE to take them down if it came
back to the Dodters in the World Series, which it
is likely to. But yeah, it all could be moot.
(40:41):
But you know, there's other ways to bet it other
than just betting into the World Series market. And that's
why I'd probably recommend betting Ale Pennant odds as opposed
to taking a team from the ALE to win the
World Series, because you're gonna have to get past the
demonic Dodters lineup in rotation.
Speaker 1 (40:56):
All right, Sean Zarrillo, Great update. Let's continue with our
trend pattern of nailing these preseason picks. Simon, We're coming
back on Thursday. We're bringing back to Bundo to preview
the World Cup Final and we'll hopefully be talking about
England in the finals.
Speaker 2 (41:14):
This has been Sharper Square, part of the.
Speaker 1 (41:16):
Volume podcast Network Walk or listen on YouTube. A Sharper
Square like the video, Subscribe to the channel, download us
in Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, Rate review, subscribe,
leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is
a gifted two Thursday, Love you.
Speaker 5 (41:34):
And hitting the air to Deep Center, mcutch, it to
the wall and on Jeed Trickle. Now that is well done.
Oh wow, I got a distance.
Speaker 4 (41:45):
Yeah, that is a PNC Park signature.
Speaker 1 (41:49):
Play right there.
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard rods Bet. We
are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the
show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wives
guys pay attention.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
I am Chad Milman.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
I am joined as always, but my co host, my bff,
my companion, my compatre professional better Simon Hunter et O Simon, Chad.
Speaker 3 (00:26):
We are truly in the dog days of summer, my friend.
We got lists coming out, we got Hormone Derby's, we
got a little World Cup left, and thank god, two
weeks from now we get guys back in camp with
actual football. But until then, I'm enjoying these last few days.
Speaker 1 (00:44):
I did notice the other day ESPN put out its
top ten quarterbacks list, and so I know, I looked
at it and I thought to myself, I don't want
to digest it. I want to make my own lists
so I can surprise Simon. What did you think.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
Of the home run Derby?
Speaker 4 (01:04):
I loved it.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
I did end up going, but didn't go in that
We have like a thing called State Side right by
the stadium, because I was just I thought, all right,
I'll be able to get a discount because no joke,
I have a ticket from the last time they were here.
Speaker 4 (01:18):
It was at the Vet.
Speaker 3 (01:20):
I saw almost pousitive, was like Barry Bonds Mark Maguire
in that home run Derby. It was five bucks and
we were in the lower bowl. Jesus yeah, and I
was looking for just nosebleeders. The cheapest I could fine
was nine hundred.
Speaker 4 (01:33):
I was like, I'll just I'll just wait, are you
kidding me?
Speaker 3 (01:36):
Not kidding? Four hundred level? Chad, four hundred level. They
were looking for nine hundred, So I was like, all right,
I'll just I'll watch the State side. And it was electric.
I mean, I don't know about you.
Speaker 4 (01:44):
I thought it was gonna be a shoreber so uh yeah,
definitely was fired up.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
And it's it's again in Philadelphia's unique place. It's all
about where they put these locations. But the fact that
the fans were so into it, even if the setup
was stupid by Netflix, because I know TV honestly, wasn't
that enjoyable of experience for me.
Speaker 4 (02:02):
I don't know by other.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
People Netflix wise, But overall the atmosphere, I thought it
was so electric. I really feel like I came through
on TV.
Speaker 4 (02:09):
So it was fun.
Speaker 3 (02:11):
I really enjoyed that home run and I don't know
if it's the swings, you know, whatever it was, but yeah,
usually I don't I don't really get that far up
for it, but I feel like I had to go
because it was in my city and end up being
a pretty cool experience.
Speaker 1 (02:23):
Well look, I think that the best thing about it
are the Philly fans and how excited they got for
Schwarber and that Schwarber got to the final round, and
you know the fact that it took just a monstrous
blast for Schwarber to lose.
Speaker 2 (02:40):
I loved the atmosphere for it.
Speaker 1 (02:42):
I could like, I don't care that much about the
home run derby.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
I have found that.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
More and more my impartial fandom is about atmosphere. Like
I'm in the World Cup. I'm rooting for England because
I know that the clips on social media if England
wins or loses in the finals are going to be
(03:12):
at such peak ends of the spectrum, meaning it will
be the absolute worst devastation or the high of highs
because of England's fraught relationship and tortured relationship with international soccer.
Speaker 2 (03:30):
That's what I'm rooting for.
Speaker 1 (03:30):
And so I'm rooting for great, genuine emotional fan moments
more than I'm rooting for something on the field.
Speaker 4 (03:38):
Yeah, I don't want to. I don't want to.
Speaker 3 (03:39):
I don't want to expose myself too much because all
the pandemic come my way. But Chad knows I am
losing my mind right about England. I know you've been
e loving to say a wonderwall after every game.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
Yes, oh my god, it's That's what I'm talking about, though,
like or when they're singing Hey Jude, I don't know.
To me. This is a magical thing for social media
is it's power to share the joy of fandom, and
I think it does it as well as it does
anything else. And it's honestly, it's why I got into
the Phillies, like the Phillies fans rooting for Trey Turner
(04:11):
when he was struggling after his first year free agency
is the exemplar of how social media can inspire fandom,
and it shares the traditions and what it means to
be a fan of these teams globally, and I think
it inspires more people to be interested in be fans,
and I think that's amazing. I'm being totally I'm totally
(04:33):
like being sentimental. I am not being typical sort of
sarcastic here, like I just think it's it's awesome, So
I want I want that fandom reaction the.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
COVID part, right memory, Just in COVID, how we just
we always knew how much we cared about fans, and
then being there, yes, lintil Code, you were just like,
oh my god. It It literally makes up I guess
sixty percent same percent of the experience. I don't know
how to explain it, but it really does that connection
watching games with other people, and uh yeah for the
World Cup. I mean, maybe I'll save it for our
(05:06):
next show because it's there's just so much chad that
Americans wouln't understand. Between England and Argentina. I don't really
know who America's rival would be. I guess in sports,
I guess Canada. We kind of hate them because of
hockey and other things like that. But Russia, yeah, Russia
right right, right, But this this is like next level,
Like you know, these people have killed each other over.
Speaker 4 (05:29):
An island if you want to look into all that.
So yeah, it's Falklands. Yeah, yeah, So.
Speaker 2 (05:36):
I'm old enough to remember the Falkland Island.
Speaker 3 (05:39):
You really, Yeah, I don't know how many Americans really
remember that, but it was It's something I know they
still hold pretty close to their chest.
Speaker 4 (05:46):
And yeah, I Chad knows.
Speaker 3 (05:49):
I am someone that I won't make my feelings too
hard on the Germans here, but a lot of Germans
after World War Two went Argentina and that's why I
as an Englandman, we forever kind of hate Argentine in
many ways as well. So the dream scenario for this
World Cup, but we all know it's a little fixed
in so many ways. England, Argentina, Spain, France couldn't ask
(06:10):
for much more than that, Chad. So between that and
Homer Derby, like you're saying, it's been a great, great
fan experience, it feels like these last couple of.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
Weeks we are listen.
Speaker 1 (06:19):
You know, I'm a huge Tottenham Spurs fan, and so
because of that, and because of Harry Kane's legacy with Tottenham,
I am all in on England. That in my Anglo
file nature and the fact that my wife and I
met in London when we were students, I just have
a lot of affinity for English culture. So we're all
in on England. We're gonna hopefully be singing Wonderwall after
(06:40):
the finals on Sunday and certainly after this next match
against Argentina. But we were just talking about the home
runer every summer. Way back in March, we dove into
Major League Baseball betting the Major League Baseball season from
a betting perspective with our old pal Seans from the
Action Network, one of the sharpest, most obsessive baseball betting
(07:05):
minds anywhere, co host of the Wonderful Payoff Pitch podcast.
He looks Simon. He looks like an angel for those
watching on YouTube. It's only because he's sitting in his
backyard because the construction in his house was so loud
we sent him into the back yard. Shonzillo, Welcome back, buddy.
(07:28):
You listen, we're going to get to this in the show.
You gave out some bets that are trending towards winners,
so I'm thrilled for you. And I don't don't get
into him yet because we're going to talk about him
on the show.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
But well done, Shonzarella.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (07:45):
I enjoyed the Hermer on Derby last night. Really liked
the new format.
Speaker 6 (07:48):
I think they got to stick with that format, Maybe
get rid of the magenta colored baseballs because that seemed
to be a little bit difficult for the hitters to
pick up on, potentially considering nobody homewred on them until
the final round and then for Jordan Walker if you've
been able to catch online. So all the extra baseballs,
all the bonus base balls were supposed to be magenta.
Speaker 5 (08:08):
The home run that Jordan Walker hit to end the
night was white.
Speaker 6 (08:11):
So there's a bit of controversy surrounding the fact that
Jordan Walker was not being fed the correct baseballs during
his little run in the bonus round. But completely agree,
love the atmosphere, thought the Philly fans were electric. Them
booing Contreras and Walker throughout their final rounds against Shober
was absolutely electrifying. Love the format, just absolutely hated the
Netflix broadcast seem to have no feel for the rules,
(08:34):
seem to have no feel for the moment. There was
no leaderboard on the screen telling you how anybody was
Doing's definitely a lot of kinks to work out on
the Netflix front. The boxing ring at second base kind
of matching their cringe energy from the Giants Yankees opening
day when they had like the trolley carts in the
subway car out and left and right field. So I
think Netflix doing a little bit too much on the
(08:54):
movie production end.
Speaker 5 (08:56):
Just leave the game as is.
Speaker 6 (08:57):
You don't need to do too much, but give us
the information that actually helps make the inf event a
little bit more informative as you're watching it.
Speaker 1 (09:04):
Not a lot of the lovers of the Netflix broadcasts
so far in baseball for Giants, Yankees or for home
run Derby, So look, they've they got to figure that
one out. But listen, we're not talking about broadcasts here.
We're talking about betting. It is the MLB All Star
Game tonight, annual right of passage, the unofficial midway point
of a very long baseball season.
Speaker 2 (09:26):
Sean, I'm so glad you're here.
Speaker 1 (09:30):
Let's talk about the actual baseballs, because in the spring
you told us about differences and variations that could be
possible in the balls. You're always on top of the balls.
Major League Baseball uses over the course of the season
different balls. They change the balls.
Speaker 2 (09:52):
Catch us up.
Speaker 1 (09:54):
Where is where does the balls stand right now?
Speaker 6 (09:56):
I'm not going to go around telling people that I'm
always on top of the balls. We'll find a different
way to phrase that, But it does seem like we've
had a change to the baseballs in twenty twenty six,
and that now makes five times I believe in the
past seven years where we have evidence, we have people
slicing into the baseballs physically proving that they're different. Now,
Major League Baseball came out a few weeks ago after
(10:20):
I started putting out articles investigating it further. You know,
sarahs was kind of the one who initially drove the
conversation on it, and then I took it a step
further in terms of my research. But essentially, the balls
are flying further. You can only explain away about a
third to a half of the further carry due to weather.
The biggest difference and the biggest, most obvious like change
(10:43):
that immediately stands out in dome stadiums, so you can
filter out most of the weather impact. At dome stadiums.
There is still some of a weather impact as temperatures increase,
the humidity increases, et cetera. But in the past five
years or so, as the way warms up in dome stadiums,
you only see an increase in ball flight by about
(11:05):
a foot and a half. The maximum we've seen in
any year was three feet. This year it's jumped nine feet,
and it happened in the middle of the season, at
about the end of May, right around Memorial Day. The
ball essentially overnight started flying nine feet further. And you
can't tell me that the weather warmed up enough to
(11:27):
have caused a nine foot increase. That would be like
a thirty degree temperature increase. About fifteen temperatures is equivalent
to four feet. But what you can track, and I
talked about this in the preseason, is the drag coefficient data,
which Major League Baseball makes readily available on baseballsavant dot com. Essentially,
the range of outcomes of drag this year, and each
(11:48):
point of drag is worth four feet of ball flight.
The range of drag this year has fluctuated by as
many as four points, four tenths of a point, what
have you. So essentially that's the difference between sixteen feet
plus or minus from one baseball to the next, and
it stabilized essentially now in July, below the lowest point
(12:09):
it hit last year. So the baseballs are obviously different.
Major Leagues Baseball's excuse for this, or their way of
explaining this away was to say that the oils from
inside of the baseball had leaked out, had caused some
sort of yellow staining on the outside of the ball.
But essentially they're saying that, yes, there's an issue. We
tested these balls independently. We didn't find anything specific wrong
(12:33):
with them, and therefore we consider them to be viable
for play. But what we are seeing is on the field,
catchers are tossing out way more balls. You know that
they're being given by the umpire. They're throwing them out
of play because they don't think the quality is up
to standards. We know that MLB bought Rawlings in twenty
nineteen to gain better control over the process of manufacturing
(12:54):
the balls. Clearly, there's still going to be some variants
from one ball to the next because they're hands sewn,
but there's never been this much variance within one particular year.
So the main theories are here. Baseball started the year
with the baseballs from last year. As the season has
gone on, they started mixing in more baseballs that were
meant for this season, and we've seen drag decrease as
(13:16):
a result, and now kind of settle back in a
neutral point because we're using all the baseballs that were
meant for twenty twenty six. But the other main takeaway
from MLB's statement is the fact that, hey, we realize
this was a problem. We alerted all these teams in February.
They didn't say whether they alerted sportsbooks in February. They
didn't notify the public in February. They just started talking
(13:36):
about it in June. But the other opshot is they
said that they're going to be cycling in another new
match of baseballs by the end of this year, if
not early next year. So we already have a built
in excuse when MLB does change the baseballs and wants
to mess with the baseballs in the postseason, which they've
been caught doing in the past, they've already built an
excuse that they're going to be changing the baseballs again
(13:59):
in September. So I don't know how those baseballs are
going to play. Presumably they will be less bouncy than
the ones that we're currently seeing in play. But the
upshot is the balls are traveling about another five feet
further than you would expect just based upon the weather
increases as you would go into the season, and as
a result, the home run rate and run scoring has
been at its highest level since twenty nineteen.
Speaker 1 (14:20):
Simon, do you know what player who had been slumping
terribly went on a Ruthiean tear around the same time.
The baseballs seem to be flying out of ballparks at
a prodigious rate.
Speaker 4 (14:35):
I have no idea.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
What is it, Phillies, Pete Crow, Armstrong, Sean, how much
do you think PCA's explosion had to do with those balls?
And if you've seen a change since sort of the
balls have started to drift back a little bit.
Speaker 6 (14:55):
Yeah, I don't think it's necessarily for PCA specifically, and
some of the Cubs players specifically. You know you've seen
Danzeby Swanson go on that crazy run of homers and ribbies.
They played a lot of games at Wrigley recently with
totals of twelve and a half thirteen and a half,
where the wind was blowing out aggressively, the temperatures were
in the ninety degrees. I would say in July the
weather's actually been more temperate throughout the country than it
(15:16):
was in June. I never expected to become a meteorologist,
or at least an amateur meteorologist in terms of doing
my job handicapping baseball, but I have to pay attention
to the temperatures and the weather everywhere on a daily basis.
I think July has been a little bit more temperate
than June was, but I do think the Cubs at
home have had a lot of really good offensive weather.
Speaker 5 (15:34):
That is how PCA.
Speaker 6 (15:35):
I also think PCA is just the very streaky player
who's going to go through a lot of big hot
streaks and cold streaks throughout his career just because of
the swing decisions he makes, the lack of end zone
contact that he can have at times. He has crazy power,
crazy speed, crazy athleticism, but the bat on ball skills
are going to fluctuate a little bit, and I think
that could lead to streakiness. But overall, you know, you
(15:57):
are seeing home run per fly ball increase, home run
rates increase, and the way that I can say, hey,
this isn't validated by the bounce. I shouldn't have said
the bounciness of the ball, because that's not actually what's happening.
That was an incorrect phrase that I just used. It's
not that the balls are bouncy specifically, It's not that
the balls are bouncy. If they want to make the
(16:18):
balls bounce here, they would increase the core of the baseball,
which is like essentially the middle of the baseball, like
the core of the earth, but it's spelled cor That's
how bouncy the ball is off of the bat. And
what that would do if they wanted to make the
balls jumpier, you would see it show up an exit
velocity figures. The balls would be coming off of the
(16:39):
bat hotter, which in turn would make them fly further.
That's not what's happening here. What's happening is the balls
are being hit just as hard, if not less hard
than they were in June as compared to May and April,
but they're flying further in the air. The resistance on
them as they're carrying in the air is not there
as much. And I've pulled several examples where balls were
hit same batted ball, project exit velocity, distance path on
(17:03):
the field, same weather in those games, and some balls
from April May in the same temperatures as they were
in June, we're flying forty feet further, forty five feet
further in June. And you know, there is some things
that you have to quantify for like backspin versus front spin.
There's things that you don't necessarily show up immediately in
the stackass data that could slightly affect that, but it's
(17:25):
been too dramatic in terms of the impact. And again
just reverting to the indoor parks thing in the dome stadiums,
the Ranger Stadium in particular, Global Life Park had become
over the past couple of years the most pitcher friendly
environment in baseball. It had gone from being a hitter
friendly park when they won the World Series all the
way back to on the level of t Mobile Park
(17:48):
in Seattle. You know, the run scoring environment in Texas
for the past two years had basically been fifteen percent
below the major league average. Right around that time that
I pointed out that May twenty fifth time, Texas started
seeing a huge increase in five ball distance the Unders,
which had hit there at like a sixty five percent clip.
Not kidding, it had been like sixty five percent for
(18:10):
two years. Because the park factor keeps fluctuating so dramatically
there that the market has not been able to catch
up to how low it got there, and unders were
just hitting at a ridiculous clip.
Speaker 5 (18:20):
Every total was like a run too high.
Speaker 6 (18:22):
Now it's come back and it's become an overpark very aggressively.
Over the past six weeks, it's been one of the
best over parks in baseball because either the baseballs are different,
or they turned off the humid or there or a
combination of both. And that is the other point I
didn't emphasize earlier. I think there is a possibility, based
on the fact that I'm seeing different data and different
(18:43):
ballflight data from different parks. MLB standardized tudors in parks,
and I believe twenty twenty one, I think there is
a chance that they allowed some of these teams to
turn them off in secret. I think that's very much
a possibility, given how the ball does not seem to
be getting that extra carry at.
Speaker 5 (19:01):
All parks across the board.
Speaker 6 (19:04):
Uniformly, it does seem like even in the dome stadiums,
it's actually flying a little bit further than you would
expect outdoors. So I do think there's a chance, on
top of the baseball's being different, that there may have
been a change in HUT or policy, either from MLB
or from some of these teams internally, that just said
we're not going to use the human or like we're
supposed to and as a result, they're getting increased offense
(19:25):
in those parks.
Speaker 3 (19:26):
From our last show when you talked without Baseballs, I
knew a professional group that went out and bought baseballs
from like twenty twenty five years ago off eBay and
they cut all of them open and try to look
at if there's differences from balls right now and then
home run balls people.
Speaker 4 (19:40):
Are catching right now and then selling online. And I
just be in contact with them.
Speaker 3 (19:44):
Their theory about it was kind of interesting about how
the baseballs have changed in the last twenty five years,
the inside of them, I should say. But I just
love that they did it because of our show. It's like,
you know, they got a couple thousand dollars to burn,
why not buy these old balls to see if there's
actually a difference.
Speaker 5 (19:59):
But yeah, interesting theory.
Speaker 6 (20:03):
Most interesting theory about the steroid era is not that
it was just guys roiding. It was that guys were
rooting and they juiced the baseballs, which led to the
dramatic increase in home runs. The Barry Bond seventy plus
home run season was probably not just the byproduct of
Barry Bonds taking all of the HDH known to man
and having his head swell like three times the size
(20:25):
that it should. But also that MLB was probably introducing
juice balls during those seasons, which is why so many
players were hitting thirty home runs forty home runs, So
that is that is an interesting thing to look at
in hindsight, and if they were buying balls from twenty
five years ago, that does align with the the steroid
era and when they may have been juicing them, so
that it's very interesting.
Speaker 4 (20:44):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (20:44):
Yeah, again, I just love how crazy people are where
It's like they listen to the show and I was like,
I love the idea of doing that.
Speaker 4 (20:50):
But yeah, like I was saying, just you came on,
you gave it a.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
Bunch of great stuff. Obviously, you know, we talked about Detroit,
the pitching staff, all of it. How are you feeling
right now with your expectations on bets you made in March?
Speaker 5 (21:04):
Yeah, in pretty good positions.
Speaker 6 (21:06):
On the awards markets gave out both current Rookie of
the Year favorites have Dylan Ces at long odds for Alsayong,
have Gordon Alvarez at long odds for al MVP. I think,
you know, with regards to the Tigers, specifically that you
bring them up. I've been adamant that the Tigers shouldn't sell.
The Tiger's got eleven games, ten games below the division
(21:27):
leader in the AL Central. I think they've closed the
gap now to four wins at the All Star Break
Tark School when on the IL came back for them,
it seems like they're still shopping him. I've maintained that
the Tigers should not sell, and if they do not sell,
I think their viable contender in the American League right now.
The AL Central winner only projects to finish with the
round eighty three wins. The AL West winner only projects
(21:48):
to finish with the round eighty four wins. So not
only is their path back for the Tigers in the division,
there's a path for the Tigers still to get the
number two seed in the American League behind the AL
East winner, because, like I say said, either the ALE
Central winner or the ALE West winner probably ain't get
more than eighty five wins. So whoever wins that division
is going to have a very good chance at finishing
with one of the top two seedson getting a buye.
(22:10):
And as a result, you know, if you're telling me
you're going into Round two and Trek scoopl is going
to be starting two out of your five games in
that series and then three pitching in three out of
your seven games at a potential ALCS and World Series.
Tigers remain a very viable contender. I just think they're
having the inverse season that they had last year. Last year,
they got out to a huge lead, collapsed it, lost
(22:30):
the division, ended up beating the team who overtook them
in the playoffs. This year, I think they started out
extremely poorly. Everything went wrong, and now they're finally picking
up steam like they did a few years ago. It's
one of the best second half teams in baseball a
couple of years ago when they went on a big run.
But I think they are basically having the inverse season
that they had last year, and they will be there,
(22:51):
in my opinion, in the end if they don't sell
Trek Scooble the team I like from a futures perspective.
There's not many the team that I still like from
a futures perspective. For the two teams, the Brewers and
the Rays, because these are teams who typically do not
add come trade deadline time, I think they will both
be adding this year, not only because they've kind of
alluded to the fact that they would publicate. The Rays
also have a new ownership group. The Brewers have the
(23:13):
number one farm system in baseball, and they've just locked
up two of their top guys, Cooper Pratt and Luis Lara,
whom they both brought to the big leagues. They also
have the number one prospect in baseball in Jezus Made,
So anybody else in that farm system I think is
fair game for the Brewers to trade, and I think
they may go out and add pieces. I have some
concerns right now, slightly because Brandon Woodroff seems like he
(23:33):
got hurt last week. Jakob Mazerowski seems like he may
be dealing with some arm soreness. And if you're going
to be betting on the Brewers to take down the
Daughters in October.
Speaker 5 (23:41):
You need at least three.
Speaker 6 (23:43):
You need Maserowski, but you probably need at least two
of three of Kyle Harrison, Brandon Woodroff, and Logan Henderson
as well.
Speaker 5 (23:49):
Would love to have.
Speaker 6 (23:50):
All four, but I do think the Brewers are going
to add at the trade deadline. Just public projection wise,
The projections do not like them right now. They say
the Cubs are the value bet in the NL Central
I have Brewers positions I'm pretty comfortable with. Gave them
out at eight to one in the NL a few
weeks ago. I think that is a team though, that
you may be able to bet come playoff time. Just
make sure everybody's healthy. The team who I think is
going to get better in the next couple weeks, definitively
(24:12):
is the Raise the Rays. Like I said, of a
new ownership group, they've never been willing to spend in
their history. They have a deep prospect pool they're willing
to trade from. And we're probably going to lock out
next year. It's an unfortunate reality, but we're likelier than
not to lock out for at least part of the
twenty twenty seventh season. And I think any of these
teams who are in contention are going if I'm going
(24:33):
to lose a year of prospect development anyway in the
minor leagues, right If I'm not going to see these
guys until twenty twenty eight at best, why wouldn't I
trade them now and catch them in when not, only
do I not know what they're going to be, but
losing that year of minor league development next year could
be absolutely crucial and devastating because we saw it affect
a lot of prospects during the COVID year. So I
(24:55):
think the Rays are going to add at the trade deadline.
Right now, I make them about thirteen to one to
win the World Series, five to one to win the
Ale Pennant. You can get as high as seventeen to
one and plus five fifty, respectively. I think with Aaron
Judge's injury news coming out at some point during this week,
you'll know whether Judge is going to be back soon,
whether it's going to be longer until he comes back.
(25:16):
If it's longer until he comes back, I actually think
the Yankees are going to be more conservative at the
trade deadline and not push. If he is going to
come back sooner, I think the Yankees are going to
be more aggressive and try to add pieces around him.
So maybe the timing is the wait for that Aaron
Judge injury news before you pile on, potentially to the
raise Ale Pennant and World Series bets. But I think
this team is going to look a lot better in
(25:36):
a few weeks than it does right now, and the
American League is completely wide open. I like whoever comes
out of the NL between the Braves, the Dodgers, and
the Brewers, I think, or the Phillies. I think any
of those teams will be a better option in the
World Series than whatever the ALE produces. So I'd probably
be targeting Pennant bets as opposed to the World Series bets.
But the Rays of the one team I'm really keeping
a close eye on right now. I've been on them
(25:57):
all year, thought they were underrated all year, but now
I'm actually starting to take the more seriously as a
championship contender.
Speaker 1 (26:03):
Let's do a quick word from hard Rock and then
I want to do an up and a down with Zrilla.
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New Jersey, and Tennessee. All right, Sean Chicago White Sox
surprise darlings of Major League Baseball. Yeah, Paul Skians struggling.
(28:19):
I think more than anyone would have expected. Give me
your why the White Sox are up?
Speaker 2 (28:26):
And can they maintain?
Speaker 1 (28:28):
And your what's happening with Skiings?
Speaker 2 (28:31):
And will he turn it around?
Speaker 5 (28:33):
Yeah? The White Sox.
Speaker 6 (28:34):
Chris Getz has done a phenomenal job at making sure
there's as few weaknesses as possible on a roster. There's
a lot of ways you can build teams when you're
trying to go from dregs of Major League Baseball to
league average being a five hundred team. One of the
easiest ways to do that is just to make sure
you don't have bad players. But on top of that,
(28:55):
their player development has been pretty tremendous because, uh, Colson
Montgomery was a guy who a lot of people thought
the swing was not correct. A lot of prospect evaluators
thought he was going to struggle immensely at the big
league level because he just couldn't figure out the swing.
He was really struggling through the early part of last season,
eventually figured it out, hit twenty one home runs in
(29:17):
about seventy games, and this year he looks like he's
maintaining a pretty similar pace in terms of projecting out
to like a.
Speaker 5 (29:23):
Thirty five or forty homer guy.
Speaker 6 (29:25):
Getting Murakami there was obviously the big addition that has
really propelled them up, but they ended up missing him
for a large part of this year and still played
pretty well without him. So I'd say the player development,
the GM all working in concert have done a phenomenal
job lifting this team from the bottom of the league
to average. But that said, I think this is an
(29:47):
average team and in terms of betting them to make
or miss the playoff right now, it's definitively miss. I
make them about minus one thirty. You can get them
an even money to miss the playoffs, So I would
probably be fading the White Socks at this point forward.
I don't think they're a team who's going to add
at the trade dyn line and start giving up prospect
pieces for a team that is not necessarily a World
(30:08):
Series contender yet. But obviously like the way they're trending.
I think once you see Hagen Smith come up to
this roster, once he's ready, you can start taking this
team even a little bit more seriously next season, because
pitching is their biggest need, and he looks like he's
a potential frontline starter for them if he could figure
out the command piece. But overall, if I'm betting anything
on the White Sox right now, it would be to
(30:29):
miss the playoffs at around even money to minus one twenty.
Speaker 5 (30:32):
But this team definitely is the juice. I've watched them
all year.
Speaker 6 (30:35):
There is some magic there on the South side, and
I don't necessarily love taking a stand against them at
this point, but given Detroit's ability to come back in
that division, Cleveland's ability to.
Speaker 5 (30:47):
Come back in that division.
Speaker 6 (30:48):
The projections love the Minnesota Twins, who are sitting right
around five hundred, but the Twins we know will not
be adding at the deadline, given their ownership troubles over
last offseason the fact that they didn't spend anything in
free agency. So I think there are three teams who
could take down the White Sox and eliminate them, and
as a result, even money looks like a pretty good
price to bet against them. The Pirates are the opposite.
The Pirates schemes looks injured. You in the spin rate
(31:12):
on Skins fourcing fastball is declining in virtually every start,
which is a pretty big indicator of injury. Bubba Chandler
has not developed this year. Mitch Keller gets worse in
the second half of every season, but their lineup is
a lot better than it has been in previous years.
Their bullpen is pretty capable. I just don't necessarily see,
other than Connor Griffin returning from injury, a lot of
(31:34):
young contributors coming up and helping this Pirates roster. Seth Fernandez,
who's maybe the top pitching prospect of the minors, seems
like he's still a couple of years away, so the
Pirates aren't going to add pieces. The Pirates may have
a couple of banged up pitchers, but the projections like
them to make the playoffs right now. I make them
about plus two fifty, and I think you can get
them at plus three to fifty. Let me actually just
(31:54):
pull up that actual number the Pirates. I make them
plus one ninety and you can get them as high
as plus two fifties, so they look like the potential
value about to make the playoffs. The other team, I'd
point out who stands as the biggest playoff value bet
right now, and that's the best market. If you're looking
for markets to dive into that have the biggest edges
positive and negative. You know teams you want to fade
from a playoff perspective, and at the no teams you
(32:16):
want to bet.
Speaker 5 (32:16):
The yes on.
Speaker 6 (32:17):
The biggest market four edges right now is make or
miss playoff bye by far way more than Division or
World Series. That's where I'd focus my money and attention.
If you're looking to build the portfolio right now, the
team that shows the biggest edge either yes or no,
is the orioles to make the playoffs. I make them
about plus two to eighty five. You can get them
at four to one. I believe they're sitting just a
couple of games off of the pace two and a
(32:39):
half games, two games off the pace in the AL
wild card race, and that is a team I could
see surprisingly adding despite the fact that they're sitting below
five hundred right now. They just have an owner who
wants to be aggressive, who wants to win.
Speaker 1 (32:50):
Now.
Speaker 6 (32:50):
They had the Pete Alonso signing this offseason. Pete seems
like he's finally heating up a little bit as the
season has gone along too. But yeah, the Orioles to
make the Pirates, to make the White Sox to miss,
and then maybe the Guardians to miss as well.
Speaker 5 (33:05):
I would choose between the Guardians and White Sox.
Speaker 6 (33:08):
But everything else that I show value on is something
that you have to lay, like minus three hundred or
higher on. I'm trying to stick in the more reasonable
plus money price ranges here in terms of analyzing these bets.
But yeah'd say the biggest the biggest edge if you
want to talk about the pure biggest edge if you
want a parlay piece Potter is to miss. I make
minus six hundred. That's minus three eighty But that was
a bet I gave out in the preseason. I gave
(33:29):
out on this show, and I think minus one ten
minus one fifty, so certainly have gained value there, gain
Vello and the Ashes to miss the playoffs in pretty
good position on a lot of these bets. I just
need by Mariners and Tigers, the Visional tickets to potentially
come through that would really bring everything together.
Speaker 3 (33:45):
Is there any bets like for our listeners to get on, like,
you know, player wise, you know Cy Young Awards, anything
MVP wise that you like next half.
Speaker 6 (33:54):
Yeah, I'd say the biggest value bet in any of
the awards markets is probably it's probably Bobby Wit to
win al MVP at about five to one. I make
him plus three eighty five. This is just going to
be an interesting vote because Jordon Alvarez is not going
(34:14):
to be the al war leader, and typically War the
war leader and vote share correlates at like a seventy
percent clip. But the one thing I highlighted in terms
of my preseason analysis, and I gave out Jordon in
the preseason at thirty five to one I set or
forty to one.
Speaker 5 (34:28):
I highlighted the.
Speaker 6 (34:29):
Fact that ops and OPS ranking is the one thing
that can kind of override wins above replacement. So Wit
is probably going to finish with eight wins above replacement,
Jordon closer to six and a half six point three.
But Jordon is going to have one thousand ops. Wit
is going to have an eight to fifty ops. Neither
of them are going to be on winning teams. I
think if Witt was on a winning team, that may
(34:52):
be a little bit of a tiebreaker for him, But
I do think looking at the history of voting, if
Witt has a two win lead and wins Abu replacement,
he also less injury prone than Jordon. Jordon has been
very injury prone throughout his career, so over the final
two and a half months, I'd say he's substantially likelier
to get hurt than Wit is. So I think Wit
at five to one would be the value bet among
(35:12):
all the awards markets right now. The guy who's popped
up consistently for me though throughout the season is Parker
Messick to win AL Rookie the Year Again. I gave
out McGonagall on this show. McGonagall is in a great spot.
He's currently like minus two fifty in the market. I
make him minus two sixty, so it's not an actionable bet,
but I do show value on.
Speaker 5 (35:30):
Him if McGonagall gets hurt at some point.
Speaker 6 (35:32):
The rest of the way, everybody's assuming kind of that
a Kamoto from the Jays Urmurakami from the White Sox
is gonna win that award. Messick projects right now as
the wins above replacement leader behind McGonagall, and I make
him about twelve to one. You can get him as
high as thirty to one. So if you want a
small stab Parker Messick is he's gonna get the innings.
(35:53):
He threw about one hundred and forty innings between the
miners and majors last season. He's going to finish around
one to ninety. I think he's one of the best
pitchers in the American League. He's going to be in
the AlSi Young Becks as well. He's not going to
end up winning the award, but he'be he top five
top six in ALSA Young and I think if McGonagall
doesn't win AL Rookie, he's probably my favorite candidate, even
above all the hitters that you have in the al
(36:15):
JJ Weatherholp. I gave him out in the preseason as
well at six to one. He's the NL favorite. I
make him minus two hundred. You can can currently get
him at minus one fifty five, So weather Hold I
would lay the juice. He stands to have a big
WAR lead at the end of the season. He might
already be the best defender in baseball, which is shocking
because Bryce Terrang, who plays his position for the Brewers
in his division, has been one of, if not the
(36:37):
best defender in baseball for a few years. Weather holp
same position already maybe has overtaken Bryce Terrang. So as
a result, even though weather Holt has kind of comparable
offensive stats the guys like Carson BEng or other hitters
in the NL, his defensive quality is like boosting him
up dramatically. And WAR correlates even more strongly to Rookie
of the Year than it does to MVP. So weather Holt,
(37:00):
Parker Massik would be my choices. If I'm placing Rookie
of Year bets right now. Witt would be among the
ale MVP on LMBP, and then the Sygong Markets I
think would be the only guy pull the trigger on there.
Because I like Joe, Ryan and the Ale, but I
think he's likely to get traded from the Twins, or
at least likely or to get traded then end up
still on his team. So yeah, that's where i'd go
(37:23):
with my money from a player futures perspective at this point,
and then the Rays would be the team I would
target from a team perspective.
Speaker 1 (37:29):
Zarrillo, We've gone an entire show haven't mentioned the team
with the best record in baseball. The Dodgers have sixty
one wins, despite injuries to Otani and others. Before the
season began, you came on the show and said, this
is a team that is built to win in the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (37:52):
They don't really care about the regular season.
Speaker 1 (37:54):
And here they are dominating what was supposed to be
a competitive NL West and crushing in the National League.
Is all this moot because it's the Dodgers World Series
to win.
Speaker 6 (38:08):
Anyways, Maybe, like I said, I think that there's one
team in the NL who can take them down.
Speaker 5 (38:15):
It's probably the Brewers.
Speaker 6 (38:17):
Just because the Brewers, by the time they got to
the playoffs last year, Miserowski wasn't available to start for them.
They didn't have the pitching quality, the starting pitching quality
that they have this year. But the Dodgers, to your point,
have not played their best team and they still have
the best record in baseball. They have almost they have
half of their playoff rotation on the il Tyler Glasnow
(38:39):
and Blake Snell have given them virtually nothing this year.
Otani is dealing with an injury right now, but again,
because they have such a big lead in their division,
there's no lead, no need to push them. He did
get Injectionery is getting an injection over the All Star break.
That is something to really keep a close eye on,
because the Dodgers could shuck down Otani till the playoffs
(38:59):
if they really needed to. If they felt it was
necessary to preserve his health for the postseason, they would
shut him down and that would open the door for
PCA or Juan Soto to win the nl MVP, and
the PCA one Sodo debate would be the exact same
That would actually make it interesting because the PCA one
soda debate is literally the exact same debate. As Bobby
(39:21):
witten yord on Sodo has the one thousand plus ops,
He's going to finish two war behind PCA PCA is
going to have the eight to fifty ops but have
the big wins b of a replacement lead on Soto.
But the difference between the NL and the AL is
that PCA is on a winning team.
Speaker 5 (39:38):
Sodo is not.
Speaker 6 (39:39):
Neither the AL guys are on winning teams. So I
think the winning team thing might tiebreak for PCA if
it came down to those two guys. But it's worth
noting because Otani right now skip the All Star Game
because he's dealing with an injury. He's getting an injection
and there's a non zero chance that he could miss
significant time the rest of the way. He may still
win a NLMBP even if he doesn't play another game
(40:00):
this season. That's how good show Heotani is and all
the stats he's put up to this point. But it
is worth noting. But yeah, the Dodgers are slow playing
it for the postseason. They're probably gonna make additions. I
don't think they'll get Trek Scooble, even though they have
one of the most loaded firm systems in baseball. They
just have enough pitching coming back that they may not
even be their biggest need. They would probably be looking
(40:21):
up to shure up the bottom of their lineup, maybe
get a better second basement targeting can tell Marte something
like that. But yeah, this team's loaded. They haven't even
played their best team yet. I think the Brewers could
potentially take them down. I'm not sure who I like
in the ALE to take them down if it came
back to the Dodters in the World Series, which it
is likely to. But yeah, it all could be moot.
(40:41):
But you know, there's other ways to bet it other
than just betting into the World Series market. And that's
why I'd probably recommend betting Ale Pennant odds as opposed
to taking a team from the ALE to win the
World Series, because you're gonna have to get past the
demonic Dodters lineup in rotation.
Speaker 1 (40:56):
All right, Sean Zarrillo, Great update. Let's continue with our
trend pattern of nailing these preseason picks. Simon, We're coming
back on Thursday. We're bringing back to Bundo to preview
the World Cup Final and we'll hopefully be talking about
England in the finals.
Speaker 2 (41:14):
This has been Sharper Square, part of the.
Speaker 1 (41:16):
Volume podcast Network Walk or listen on YouTube. A Sharper
Square like the video, Subscribe to the channel, download us
in Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, Rate review, subscribe,
leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is
a gifted two Thursday, Love you.
Speaker 5 (41:34):
And hitting the air to Deep Center, mcutch, it to
the wall and on Jeed Trickle. Now that is well done.
Oh wow, I got a distance.
Speaker 4 (41:45):
Yeah, that is a PNC Park signature.
Speaker 1 (41:49):
Play right there.
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