Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bet. We
are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the
show that makes the square. Sharper makes the wise guys
pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I am joined as
always buy, my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre,
professional better Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Eto. So i'mon, Chad.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
So much going on? Where do we start? Brother?
Speaker 1 (00:27):
Dude, It's gonna be a rough week for me because
you know, I go to bed at nine o'clock, so
no Joe. Last night from seven to eight, I was
reading a book. Just before that, I got a little sleepy.
I took a nap from like seven to eight so
I could stay up for the entirety of the Spurs
(00:48):
Knicks game. And it was worth every second because the
game was freaking awesome. I'm punk that we're gonna have
Jason come on, Jason, Tim from Hoops Tonight come on
today to talk about it. But dude, great game, great
fucking game. These guys are ridiculous. Jalen Brunson what he
(01:10):
can do as a six something guard in comparison to
Wemby as a seven to four athlete is tell me
you watched it.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Tell me you loved it.
Speaker 3 (01:24):
I did. I honestly, I will lie.
Speaker 4 (01:25):
I was watching the Phillies to start, though, so I
call it the second half.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
I haven't mentioned his name because I don't want to
be the guy who drinks of it.
Speaker 4 (01:33):
I'm sure you know Christopher Sanchez, this Phillies pitcher. Yeah, yeah, dude,
pretty pretty insane run. I didn't want. People were asking him.
I didn't bring it up, and it's like, I am
so superstitious it's over now. He gave up a run
last night, but he basically said MLB record for most
innings without giving up a run.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
Didn't give up a run the entire month of May.
Speaker 4 (01:51):
So yeah, I was watching that that finish, switched over
and watched that insane comeback by that next team, and yeah,
it's as.
Speaker 3 (02:01):
Funny as it was watching the finals.
Speaker 4 (02:03):
I really can't wait for it to get back to
Madison Square Garden, Like I really can't like the fans.
I get it's Antonio, it's the rich people buying the seats, right,
It's just gonna be a different atmosphere. But I just
felt like they were gone by midway through the third quarter.
There was just nothing from the fans. They didn't will
that team at all. And yeah, props to the Knicks
(02:25):
right the game they had to go steal, they win stole.
So yeah, I can't wit to go break this game
down and just the rest of the series, it's gonna be.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
A little bit nick Knicks win by ten one five
ninety five score does not show how close the game was.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
We're gonna bring it in, Jason Timph.
Speaker 1 (02:39):
We're gonna talk all things betting in the NBA Finals
with our volume podcast. Brother, he is the hardest working
man in basketball media. He's gonna go on with our
buddy Cowherd today from Hoops tonight, Jason timp how are you, buddy, what's.
Speaker 5 (02:58):
Up, guys, It's good to see you. I am sorry
that we had to reschedule on Tuesday. I got my
absolute butt kicked by an illness f I'm back on
my feet now. And honestly, like, I think this series
is a win for basketball fans. We I think this
is between the Knicks obviously being a super interesting storyline,
and Victor woman Yama and everything he brings to the table.
(03:18):
And I think either team winning is profoundly interesting. Uh,
And there's so many storylines on the on the inside
of the lines, like you talked about Chad involving like
this weird dynamic between this six foot tall, unbelievable clutch
scoring force versus this alien seven and a half feet tall.
(03:40):
Just do a little bit of everything, Monster. It's just
a very interesting series. And I thought last night's game
was super entertaining. And you mentioned Simon did the the
uh the Knicks fans traveled really well to San Antonio
every time they made a play. I'm like, oh, man, Like,
there's a pretty hefty That was by far the biggest
road presence of any Spurs game this year.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
I love.
Speaker 1 (04:06):
This Knicks team. I find them so likable. But I
hate the Knicks.
Speaker 2 (04:10):
I mean, I truly it's weird to me.
Speaker 3 (04:12):
You think of him as Villanova. Just think of him
as Villanova.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
And I said, what I'm doing, John Line was, I'm like, well,
this is Villanova.
Speaker 1 (04:19):
Dude, I'm not gonna I'm having a really hard time
with it. And I don't feel this kind of visceral
hate for really any other teams, Like I should hate
the Cardinals as much as I as much as I
hate the Knicks. I should hate the Packers as much
as I hate the Knicks, but I hate the Knicks,
and I don't know if it's like James Dolan is
(04:39):
such a douchebag and I don't want this guy to
be rewarded. I don't know if it's like I find
Knicks fans insufferable. But what's like last night, I'm in
bed watching the end of the game, and my wife,
who's a New Yorker, is like cheering them on. And
I've got a text chain with all my other buddies
who are specifically from New York, from Staten Island who
grew up with my wife, who are all dudes and
(05:02):
all very good friends of mine, and they are going crazy.
And I have been fighting with these guys about the
Nicks and the Bulls since the nineties and they're getting
their chance now and I'm I'm I'm not even happy
for him.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
Like, but.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
MSG, I've said this before on the show Jason. When
MSG and those fans are cheering Defense, it is the
most electric feeling in sports. And I got to give
them props for that because it is it is really
really wonderful, and that it's such a New York thing
to chant Defense and the Knicks are a city team.
(05:41):
I admire the fans for that, but outside the stadium,
I fucking can't stand up.
Speaker 5 (05:46):
I've seen teams pump in the fake defense chant too,
and need at that on the broadcast, You're like, what
are you guys doing? That just doesn't work for me.
But yeah, there's a there's an electricity in that building
that really has been there, I think, on and off
over each of the last three playoff runs, but it's
just reaching a crescendo under the circumstances. Like I I
(06:07):
picked the Knicks to win this series beforehand. I think
they match up extremely well with San Antonio for some
of the reasons that we'll dig into, but like this
was the path that was there the whole time, which
was if you can somehow get out of the Eastern
Conference and if San Antonio is the team that happens
to be waiting for you, if you get there, you
have a great chance to win the title because, like
(06:29):
you know, the the Knicks are. It's it's super fascinating
because they've been super dominant. Like I think last night
was what their twelfth consecutive playoff win. They've won by
double figures in the vast majority of those games. Last
night was double figures two, although I think that's a
little uh misleading because that that the Spurs had a
lead with just a couple of minutes left. It was
more of just the way that the game went off
the rails late. But like, they've dominated their way through
(06:51):
this stretch, but a big part of it has been
like a it's been like a combination of not only
are the Knicks playing extremely well, Brunson's playing amazing, Cat's
playing amazing, Mike Brown has gotten more out of this
team's bench than they've gotten out of the bench in
any of the recent seasons. All those things are true,
but you also have like some favorability in the way
that the matchups have kind of broken down, with them
(07:13):
getting a seven seed after beating the six seed, and
then getting that Calves team that effectively quit after losing
Game one of the Eastern Conference Finals, and then getting
a team in San Antonio which matches up really well
for them. But like every team that's ever won the
title has gotten some luck along the way, whether it
be through matchups, whether it be through injuries, Like that's
just part of the deal. The Thunder last year got
(07:33):
lucky with injuries on their way to the title. So
did the Celtics the year before. Like it's just part
of basketball. And you know, the big thing is they're
just extremely likable, Like they're just an extremely likable brand
of basketball on both ends of the floor. And even
the storylines like this Cat storyline, Like can you imagine
if Kat got a Finals MVP, Like what that would
(07:56):
look like? You know, just a few years after the
his mother passed away. Like it just is rife with
a bunch of like people you really want to root for.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
I'm such a bad person. You just mentioned Kat's mother.
It just reminded me that after the Knicks b Cleveland,
a good friend of mine who's from New York and
is a massive Knicks fan, and his sister, who I'm
also good friends with, they were moving their mom, their
mom into assisted living from the how she had lived
(08:26):
in for a long time, and I texted them like,
you know, good luck today, you know, sending you guys
lots of love, thinking about you, guys, I know it's
a hard day. And they sent back, you know, just
updates of what was happening and thank you for thinking
of us and all this kind of stuff. And then
at the end, I couldn't let it go instead of
being like, you know, let me know how it goes, and.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
I just wrote back, by the way, fuck the Knicks.
Speaker 1 (08:53):
That's like, that's my state of mind on the Knicks,
even though you're right, they're so freaking likable.
Speaker 2 (08:59):
I think if Kat.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
I think, if Kat and Brunson win this title, they've
they've secured a path to the Hall of Fame. We're
not going to get ahead of ourselves. I only say
that because I was at the NBA the cop when
the Spurs played the Knicks, and I was sitting with
a buddy and we were I was saying, like, how
many when Brunson and Kat? And when Bignamo were on
(09:21):
the floor, I said, how many Hall of Famers do
you think are on the floor right now? And he
was trying to convince me that Cat and Brunson should
be it. I wasn't buying it, but I think if
they do get to they win this finals, they'll get there.
Last night, Spurs are up by thirteen in the middle
of the third quarter. They fade late lose by ten.
Jason and Simon, like from a betting perspective, from a
(09:44):
basketball perspective Jason will show with you of basketball, like
what is your biggest game? One takeaway because when we
talked about Thunder and Spurs, you were pretty optimistic about
the Spurs and I was less optimistic, And so I
was actually thinking about this last night knowing you were
coming on today.
Speaker 3 (10:02):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (10:02):
I if the Thunder would have made the finals, I
would have picked the Thunder. And the main reason why
is the Thunder are a speed team and the Knicks
are more of a power team, and I think they
match up better in that sense, whereas the Spurs are
a power team and the Knicks have the power players
to cancel out that advantage. The primary difference is Dylan
Harper and Steph Castle consistently were able to get two
(10:24):
feet in the paint whenever they wanted against that Thunder
defense because they're constantly going against these like kind of
smaller guards and on the other end of the floor,
there was no ability for the Thunder to punish those
Spurs perimeter players. In fact, that was kind of the
story of the series is Shay looked a little physically
overwhelmed by those guys throughout. And what makes this matchup
(10:45):
so fascinating is Karl Anthony Towns is both a good
matchup for Wemby in the sense that he can guard him.
Like we saw last night, he can win the battle
on the ground. He's quick enough to beat him to
spots and physically strong enough with the low enough center
of gravity to kind of him off of any sort
of driving lane and keep him from getting any deep
post position or deep paint touch, if that makes sense.
(11:07):
But the flip side of it is on the other
end of the floor, there's not a single guy in
the Spurs rotation that can guard Cat other than Wemby.
Like all of those guards and wings that they play
are given up four or five inches forty fifty pounds
every single one of them, And then if you put
Wemby on him, one of two things goes wrong. Either
you know, Wenby, for all the credit he deserves for
(11:29):
being legitimately the best defensive player in the league, he's
actually not a fundamentally sound defender. He is getting by
purely off of raw talent. Right now, I'd argue even
on offense, which is crazy because the dude's the best
player in the world and he's just getting by on
raw talent. As a twenty two year old right now,
wait till he starts to polish some of these things
up and add some more refined process. But he was
(11:52):
terrible against ISOs all year. This like Wemby for being
literally the best defender in the league, he was one
of the worst isolation defend in the league. The reason
why is he always overplays the three point shot. He
gets super aggressive forward and then dudes drive right around him.
And he had a really hard time with Kat last night,
(12:12):
like picking him up twenty five feet from the basket
with all this intense ball pressure and it's like, what
are you doing, Chill out? All Cat has to do
is just low rip through and he's right around you
and he's getting to the basket for a layup. And
so I still think ultimately the best pathway for the
Spurs is for Wemby to guard Cat, but he's going
to have to make some tactical adjustments there. Give him
a little bit more space, use your length to contest
(12:35):
rather than trying to smother him twenty five feet from
the basket. But Cat is really the breaking point from
a matchup standpoint, because Wenby doesn't even really guard him well.
But if you take Wenby off of him and put
him on Josh Hart. Kat just feasts on these smaller guards.
He had all those offensive rebound putbacks and easy drives
in other stretches of the game, and then on the
other end of the floor, he's appropriately guarding Wemby and
(12:57):
playing him into arguably his worst offensive game of this postseason.
So like, they have a great matchup for Wemby and
Kat Jalen Brunson. All you have to do is get
the game close late. Yeah, he was not efficient. He
had thirty one shots for his thirty points. He honestly
most of the points he did have Caman transition to.
It's not like Brunson was getting good looks for himself.
(13:17):
But he just made a few big plays late in
the game. He's that big jump shot over Devin Vessel,
draws the double team that gets the foul for McHale Bridges,
has the three off of the offensive rebound in the
right corner. He just made a handful of big plays.
But Kat to me is like, and from a betting standpoint,
I'm wondering if you're seeing this two Simon, Like, I
don't know what the line is for Kat finals MVP,
(13:39):
but I would be looking at that as a potential
value opportunity here, because I think he really is the
guy that breaks the spurs on both ends of the floor.
Speaker 4 (13:51):
Yeah, I was gonna say, the first thing he jumped
out to me is just the NBA. I feel like
it's my biggest lesson from the Jordan Aire is just
the NBA.
Speaker 3 (13:58):
You have to earn it. You don't edit early, right.
Speaker 4 (14:01):
It just it feels like Wemby might be hidding that
thing which I thought he was going to against okay, see,
which is like, Okay, it's not your time yet.
Speaker 3 (14:08):
And that's what the first thing he jumped out to
me this game is. They just feel so young.
Speaker 4 (14:12):
They're relying on so many young players all in San Antonio,
where the Knicks have guys who've been on multiple teams,
the guys who have been at the lowest points of
their careers, right like, literally teams gave up on plenty
of these guys and moved along. I mean, every time
you say cat, I will always think of a Jimmy
Butler story for the rest of my life. I will
think of Jimmy Butler making him feel less than a man,
(14:33):
because it's that's what the NBA is right. It's grown
men that are there to humble you. And that's what
that game felt like, where the Knicks looked rested, the
Spurs look like a team that went to a game seven.
You could say, well they had a couple of days off. Yeah,
emotionally taxing what they did to that body of that series.
To me, that's why that ten points ended that fourth quarter,
that was a big deal. The fact that they won
(14:55):
by over ten points just shows Yeah, it was a
little wonk at the end there, like Brunton was hitting
shot the Spurs weren't. But at the same time, it
was the energy level, like them stealing the ball, the
mental mistakes the Spurs were making. So yeah, that jumped
out to me right away. Where it's like watching that
second quarter. Obviously I didn't see the first half, the
whole first half, but I saw the second quarter and
it's like, Okay, the Spurs looked in control. The third
(15:17):
quarter looked totally different. They looked like they were behind,
and the Knicks looked like they already made adjustments in
game that they were taking advantage of. So that's what
I love about Basketball's these little adjustments where you have
five guys on the floor. But that's what these guys
get paid all this money for. They find your weakness
and they're gonna exploit it whatever their strength is of
this matchup. And you know that's we're all on the
(15:38):
same page. Right, The Spurs are nowhere near dead yet, right,
there's still a ton of left to play. I think
most of us agree. This feels like it's gonna go
six or seven. Like when we played Terrible, they still
almost won that game. So I really am excited about
this series. And I'm I'm kind of torn you where
it feels like the value probably shifted at this point
to the Spurs.
Speaker 3 (15:55):
Right, Everyone's gonna overreact to that first game. I'm always
looking for the value.
Speaker 4 (15:59):
So yeah, I'm I'm gonna I'd be really tempted tonight
or tomorrow night to take the Spurs. Just just you
expecting to bounce back in the nixt LEP a letdown game.
Speaker 3 (16:07):
It's just so hard to win.
Speaker 4 (16:09):
Back to back on the road, let alone a team
like the Spurs we've seen. They take, they take Wemby's personality,
they become crazy. Like there's a team that was down
three to two the O KC and they came back
against the champs.
Speaker 3 (16:20):
So I'm so excited for this Yeriares. I think it's
gonna be great.
Speaker 1 (16:23):
One thing I want to say Jason before before you
dip in there, you had asked about Karl Anthony Towns MVP.
He was twenty to one. Now he is twelve to one.
Hard Rock Bat actually has the best price in the market.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
At him to win MVP.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
In terms of making your money back, Let's do a
quick word from hard rock because Simon, you make up
a great point about is their value now on the
spurs and I want to transition to what we learned
from last night into the upcoming games. Today's show is
brought to you by our presenting sponsor, hard Rock Bat,
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Speaker 2 (16:56):
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(18:43):
called one eight hundred gambler in Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey,
and Tennessee. All right, Jay Nicks for five and a
half point underdogs in game two, the total is two
fourteen and a half. I think Simon says something really smart.
A second ago, the Knicks looked like and this is
(19:04):
my kid and I were talking about this this morning.
Speaker 2 (19:06):
The Knicks looked like grown ups.
Speaker 1 (19:08):
In the middle of that third quarter, Wenby goes out,
cat takes over. But their size and strength, it's like
they were playing with brown man strength, and the Spurs
were playing with sort of developing strength. How do you
think all of this manifests itself in game two?
Speaker 5 (19:27):
So I interestingly enough, even though I do think the
Spurs will win Game two, I think it's on the
table that the Knicks win again. There were a lot
of things from that game that didn't go the next way,
Like Josh Hart didn't really have anything going offensively early
in the game. I thought the Knicks missed some really
clean looks as they were a little bit rusty and honestly,
(19:49):
like like Simon talked about it, speaking of the adjustments,
like they allowed just thirty three points to the excuse me,
thirty two points to the to the Spurs over the
final twenty minutes of that game. Once they went up
sixty three to twenty, that was with eight minutes left
in the third quarter. They finished with ninety five points.
Like they did straight up didn't score over the course
of the final twenty minutes of that game. There are
(20:12):
certain things that I expect the Spurs to adjust. They
torched the thunder or excuse me, they torched the Nicks
in the regular season with his action where they would
have Wemby come off of wide screens from Brunson's man,
so they'd have Champagnee, who's usually the guy Brunson's guarding,
just goes set a screen for Wemby coming out of
the corner. And they get some good stuff. For whatever reason,
(20:32):
they just didn't do that last night. They kind of
stuck with the same offensive approach they had against the Thunder.
They did have a play late in the game where
they ran a pick and roll for Wemby, but instead
of trying to shoot in the first two seconds, they
patiently waited and swung the ball around. And because Wemby rolled,
he had deep post position. Because that's like, you don't
(20:55):
have to run a pick and roll just to get
a shot. Sometimes you can do it just to alter
the geometry of the floor a little bit. They ran
a pick and roll, Wemby ended up having two feet
in the paint post. Entry just turned right over his
right shoulder and drew a foul on cat Like. There
are things that the Spurs can do to generate better shots.
Visell can shoot better, Fox can shoot better. They definitely
(21:15):
have a lot of things that they can do better.
I do believe that they'll win game two. I just
look at that like five and a half number, and
I'm like, I also wouldn't be surprised if it was
another super close game or if the if the Knicks
ended it did end up getting it done because they
do have their advantages. I just to me, I, just
after last night, just felt more strongly about the Knicks
winning the series. It's less about a team stealing a game.
(21:37):
A team can steal a game because of weirdness. Anything
can happen in a in an NBA playoff game. It's
more to me that, like I was worried about some
very specific things for the Spurs, and all of those
things came to Fruition. That was what more specifically worried me.
Like that game looked eerily similar to the March first
(21:57):
win that the Knicks had over the Spurs, which was
a fascinating win because the Spurs won eleven straight games
going into that game, and they won five straight games after.
So it was the seventeen game stretch where they went
sixteen to one, and the one loss was a game
where the Knicks beat the crap out of them in
Madison Square Garden, and it was a lot of very
(22:19):
similar stuff. Wemby had seven turnovers because he kept trying
to drive that cat and Kat was just walling him up,
and guys were digging down and taking the basketball away
from him. Jaylen Brunson looked pretty comfortable getting to his spots.
Karl Anthony Towns looked like he had size advantages all
over the floor, og and and Obi had moments where
he was scoring. The Spurs guards really struggled to get
(22:39):
anything going on offense. It was a lot of the
exact same stuff. And that's what kind of scares me,
is like, it's less about the fact that the Knicks
stole game one and more about how they stole game one.
They stole Game one by flexing their very specific advantages
all over the floor. And the main the only reason
why I'm not counting the Spurs out and not just
(23:00):
saying the Knicks are gonna run away and win the
series is simply because Victor wen min Yama is just
a completely different animal than any other player in the league.
Where like I just like he almost stole that game
last night on a terrible night where he was playing
like crap. He hits a step back three over Mitchell Robinson,
he has like a foul on like a vertical spacing
opportunity where he gets shoved in the back by Shammity,
(23:22):
is that rip through move on cat where he gets
the and one like he almost through sheer force of
will stole that game, and if it wasn't for Jalen
Brunson getting that offensive rebound tap out for the three,
or hell if maybe if Darren Fox just doesn't foul
McHale bridges on that little pull up flash there in
the middle of the lane, like the Spurs could have
(23:43):
still gotten it done. So like the real like ace
in the hole here is I still think Wemby's the
best player in the series.
Speaker 3 (23:49):
I think it's.
Speaker 5 (23:50):
If there's one reason to bet the Spurs in Game two,
it's simply because like Wemby's mentality, is there any doubt
that he's gonna be awesome, Like he's gonna be awesome
tomorrow night, Like I think we're gonna get thirty and
fifteen from him at least.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
Or the flip side is if Daron Fox had made
any of those mid range jumpers at any point in
the fourth quarter, I mean he just could not buy
a shot last night. Uh, this is a random question.
Wemby's seven to four and thin as a rail. Jason
(24:28):
in sort of the NBA universe, I never hear anybody
talk about what if Wenby puts on weight?
Speaker 2 (24:35):
What if Wenby as more muscle?
Speaker 1 (24:37):
Like, does anyone talk about his body type not being
able to add the kind of muscle that would make
him even stronger, or does that something that people talk
about because the guy already is so dumb and if
he hads muscle and mass, it won't even be close
to a fair fight anymore. Any conversation around Kat is
(24:58):
irrelevant because he'll be as big.
Speaker 5 (25:00):
So this is actually I don't think it's a strength issue.
I think it's a center of gravity issue.
Speaker 3 (25:10):
He is.
Speaker 5 (25:12):
And like Kat is like literally the exact opposite of this,
because Kat's like one of the few seven footers in
the league who just has like a low center of gravity.
He just does, but like Wemby's center of gravity is
just very high. And the example that I give is
Anthony Davis as a counter. When was Anthony Davis at
his best in like twenty twenty or earlier, when he
(25:33):
was this skinny, wiry, just freak talent that was hitting
jump shots and anchoring everything on the defensive end of
the floor, or when he bizarrely bulked up into this
like brickshit house part of my language there over the
course of the last couple of years, who frankly was
slow and still wasn't really bullying anybody because he had
(25:56):
a high center of gravity, so like he was just
he had this huge upper body. But it's not like
he turned into Shack. He was still he was still
getting dislodged by Nikola Jokic and struggling to really impact
games as like a bullyball player.
Speaker 3 (26:12):
So like with.
Speaker 5 (26:13):
Wemby, I think his strength is in his mobility, and
now that comes to hand in hand with it, Like
will Wemby ever be able to just bully his way
to the basket against the Karl Anthony Towns types. No,
but I don't think he needs to to be the
best player to be the best player that he can be.
Like there's gonna be timely post play from him, specific
(26:36):
types of matchups like oh, game one against Okay, see
they guarded him with guards the whole time. Okay, so
he has forty and twenty right, Or yeah, we ran
this really good action that got him deep post position,
kind of like we were talking about with the pick
and roll earlier, or you know, certain things on the
offensive glass. He's gonna have opportunities to use his length
around the basket. But the truth of the matter is
he's never going to be a bullyball player. His center
(26:59):
of gravity is too high. Where he's going to have
an advantage is in his height and in his mobility
on the perimeter. So like for all to talk about
the jump shots, like, he was actually a relatively efficient
jump shooter in this postseason before last night, he was
getting zero point nine to five points per attempt, which
is like really solid in this playoff field. That's almost
a point per shot, And at various points in the
(27:22):
postseason he's won games with his jump shooting, most famously
in Game one of the OKC series. But like, I
think there's a lot of this, like, oh wemb he
settles too much. Why doesn't he try to post up
more where it's like I actually think it's self aware.
It's just unpolished now. But he's never going to be
a guy who's bullying through players that have lower centers
(27:44):
of gravity. It's just even if he does put on muscle,
it's just not a battle he can win in terms
of leverage.
Speaker 1 (27:51):
You so perfectly answered my question. I love that you've
thought about it. Nicks were plus one seventy before Game
one to win the series simon. Now they are minus
one forty. The Spurs were minus two hundred they are
now plus one point fifteen. Let me give you some
some MVP numbers too, so you can take a beat
(28:14):
and think about where the value might be from a
professional point of view. Brunson for MVP plus two hundred
minus one ten, Wemby minus two hundred plus one twenty.
I mentioned Kat Castle has gone from sixty to seventy
five to one. Darreon Fox is basically off the board
seventy five to two, seventy five to two fifty to one. Simon,
(28:41):
where do you see the value right now? What are
you hearing about the value as a better even though
NBA isn't your thing? Do you take a flyer on
the Spurs at plus one fifteen? Do you take a
flyer on Wimby at plus one twenty now that you're
getting a little better number?
Speaker 4 (28:55):
Yeah, I would say before the series, a lot of
people are talking about Bruntson and Wemby.
Speaker 3 (28:59):
That was pretty much the only guys. I think most
people are betting. I am in total lounge Jason here.
I think Kat is the obvious choice, right, He's got.
Speaker 4 (29:06):
The storyline with everything in his past, everything he's gone through,
and the fact that he's shutting down potentially the most
important player on the Spurs.
Speaker 3 (29:16):
That's everything, Like he doesn't need to score the points.
Speaker 4 (29:18):
If he can just take Wenby out of the game,
that's going to be such a huge talking factor, I
think in the media, especially for the next two weeks,
because these games are really spaced out, so a lot
of these games are gonna be just conversation in the
media between the weeks, and that really dictates the MVP,
especially where it's not you know, you can say Brunts
is a superstar of the Knicks. He's not your typical superstar, right,
(29:39):
He's not that guy that's always all about me dictating everything,
wants to be the main person. Like even in his
interviews he brings his teammates on the stage with him,
and you know.
Speaker 3 (29:49):
You're talking about Wemby and his weight.
Speaker 4 (29:51):
I do think it's like a KDI thing Chad, honestly,
where it's like it don't matter, like it's just the
skill level is so high. Whatever his weakness is, he
adapts to it. And in this matchup, I think he's
going to a depth. I just I honestly thought he
just looked tired. It just it just in that fourth quarter,
that that that second half, he already had a rough
first half, you could say, shooting wise, it just felt
(30:11):
like he just looked so tired, like cat just put
his body into wearing them down the whole the whole
team did.
Speaker 3 (30:16):
The Knicks were just on them the whole game.
Speaker 4 (30:18):
So I I don't know where Jason's at with I
feel like there's no value at this point in the series.
Like I, I really don't want to be better than
the Spurs. I know that's where I said the value is.
I'm in total agree with Jason, like they could easily
be down too. Oh and you've already now you're you've
bet into two bad numbers if you've taken san Antonio
and I to me, that's not the position. I think
(30:39):
that cap position, especially a hard rock twelve to one,
that's crazy good value. Like to me, he should be
closer to seven to one, eighth to one, So I'm
gonna take that free free money around the books are
giving out his MVP, adds Chase.
Speaker 3 (30:52):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (30:52):
So it's interesting because, like I do think if the
Knicks win, it's more likely that Brunson gets MVP just
simply because of the easily tangible numbers and moments like
he had thirty points last night, he hits the big
shot late in the game like that is such easily
digestible content, especially for some of the voting pool that
we have like like it. But we have seen for
(31:13):
the record, people get Finals MVP before for defensive performance
Kawhi Leonard famously in twenty fourteen, Andra Gudala famously in
twenty fifteen, famously against the perceived best player in the
world in Lebron James, kind of like Wemby is now
so like that works in Cat's favor, is like Kat
is the primary defender on the guy that is the
(31:33):
best player on the other team. It's less to me
about like like, if you ask me which guy I
think is more likely to win MVP at the Knicks win,
it's obviously Brunson by some small margin.
Speaker 3 (31:44):
It's the value.
Speaker 5 (31:45):
Twelve to one is such a ridiculous number to get
a guy in kat At who, like I think frankly
was their best player last night. So over the course
of the series, if you just have fewer clutch games,
more blowouts, the more lowouts, like let's say, for instance,
the Knicks just win three four and six, Like, that's
(32:05):
how they win the series. Spurs win tonight, Spurs win
Game five, and in three, four and six. The Knicks
win by ten to fifteen points in every game and
Brunson doesn't need to have clutch moments, which then shines
a greater light on Kat's overall impact on both ends
of the floor. I think twelve to one's fantastic value
(32:25):
as far as the series price goes. I would have
put the Knicks at about minus one forty before the series,
So them being minus one forty now at up one zero,
I think there's value on the Knicks there. Like, I
just think the Knicks are gonna win. So like to me, like,
if you ask me to handicap the Knicks right now,
i'd put him at like two to one probably, So
to get him at minus one forty, that's a pretty
(32:47):
pretty decent value in my opinion right now.
Speaker 2 (32:50):
Do you feel like, how can you rank Jalen Brunson.
Speaker 1 (32:56):
In his ability you mentioned find his spot to create
offense in the way that KD can, right Like, there
are certain guys in the NBA they're gonna they're just
bucket getters. They're gonna find a way to score JLEB Brunson.
He gets a lot of credit for his mastery of
(33:17):
his footwork and his ability to use leverage on his opponents,
But how would you rank him in terms of his
ability to be a just a professional bucket in the
NBA right now? Because that might be why he doesn't
get that superstar sort of acknowledgment. In addition to he
just seems like a much more humble guy who's not
(33:39):
thinking about it that way.
Speaker 5 (33:41):
You know, I got a question kind of similar to
this along these lines in my mail bag last night
at the end of the show. But like you know,
Brunts is not not as good as Yiannis when he's
at his best. He's just not He's not as good
as Luca, He's not as good as as Wenby. He's
not as good as Shay, he's not as good as Jokic. Like,
the top five guys are just so incredibly impactful in
(34:02):
so many different ways that that's kind of like I'm
not gonna say an uncrackable list for Brunson, but like
like Brunson doesn't have a single first team All NBA selection,
he doesn't have a single like real MVP a finish
like Brunson just is not on the level of those guys.
I think he's the next guy, Like he's clearly like
I would take Brunson over Ant, I would take Brunson
(34:24):
over Tatum at this point, like Brunson has elevated above
that group. He's kind of become the tag that, like
the tag along guy on the top tier, Like he's
not as good as the top tier guys, but he's
clearly better than all the second tier guys. So he
kind of operates in that gap in between the two
as as one of the better offensive players in the league,
just not quite as all around impactful, but you.
Speaker 3 (34:46):
Believe that was the best American player.
Speaker 4 (34:48):
Like what you're saying now is blowing my mind.
Speaker 5 (34:53):
Jesus, I love Ant. Is Is he as good at
running an NBA off? Says Brunson. No, oh, and Ant
is a very very capable defender athletically, but he's not
a discipline defender. He makes all sorts of mistakes and
cuts corners on that end all the time. He's one
of the most maddening defenders I watch in film every
single year. Like Aunt to me is typical for an
(35:16):
early twenties guard, and that he's just he's just got
a lot of like fat in his game that he's
got a trim in order to really be that level.
Like I think, like if you ask me who's going
to be better in three years, Brunson or Ant obviously Ant,
But like I don't I could not make a case
for Aunt over Brunson right now at this moment in time,
Like Brunston's just a better basketball player than him right now.
(35:38):
Where it gets fascinating to Chad's point, is this idea
of just getting buckets because if you ask, now, let's
reframe the question instead of like who is going to
be the best player on my team for eighty two
games in a playoff run, which is the discussion that
I was just having. Instead, let's say I've got a
(36:00):
basketball game with four minutes left and we're tied, who's
the best guy I can have on my team? In there?
I would argue Brunson has a case to be number one.
I don't know necessarily that i'd put him there, Like
it gets really dicey against like a Shay or a Luca,
but like you could make the case that the guy
that should be number one there is is that a
(36:23):
cat that just walked in front of the screen of
yeah too.
Speaker 1 (36:28):
He has a massive you talk about lower body strength
and Simon's version of cat is his cat.
Speaker 5 (36:35):
I have a great Pyrenees that's one hundred and ten
pounds and is just like snow white and long hair,
like that looks like the cats.
Speaker 3 (36:44):
Yeah, that's a twenty pound man coon. It's a big
cat man. Yeah.
Speaker 5 (36:48):
But anyway, to make a long story short, like I
think specifically in that late game situation, Brunson is arguably
the best and certainly in that top tier. If he's
not in the top tier of stars for the entire
NBA campaign, he is in the top tier of stars
for guys in the final minutes. The one thing that's
different between him and like a KD is Katie just
shoots over the top of you. Brunson has this magnificent
(37:10):
combination of, like you said, Chad, the footwork and the
skill to touch, but it's also like the creativity, Like
he'll take awkward angles and awkward releases. He'll shoot with
more arc or with less arc. He can shoot with
both hands. He has like this variety of different finishing
angles that make him like extremely difficult to guard in
these situations because those creative, audacious shots are almost impossible
(37:36):
to be efficient with over a large sample, but they
give you more optionality when it's like I got two
or three possessions here guys, where I gotta get a shot,
And it's like the Shotover of his cells. A classic example,
like I thought I got him off his feet. I did,
but he jumped straight up and down. He came straight
back down in the same spots. I couldn't draw the
foul on him. But now I'm stepping through. I didn't
get the call I'm falling over. But hey, I can
(37:59):
shoot a fall in over drifting skybomb that just doesn't
even touch the rim and falls purely through the net.
Speaker 3 (38:05):
Like that.
Speaker 5 (38:05):
That's the classic example of the Brunson effect. Like it's
KD beats you just shooting right over the top because
you can't do nothing about it. Brunson, it's all this
creativity and audacity and and like just everything looks a
little bit different. It's very like it very much feels
like a six foot dude who doesn't have outstanding athletic traits,
who's just squeezing every little advantage out of every little
(38:28):
part of the game.
Speaker 1 (38:29):
It's the dude who knows exactly every angle on the
backboard and like frustrates those big players he goes against
because he gets the shot off. They can't time it,
they can't time their block because he gets the shot
off about a millisecond before they would expect him to,
before he's got the at the top of his jump
or whatever it is, if he's driving the lane like
(38:51):
it's just a little bit of trickery.
Speaker 2 (38:52):
That is just brilliant.
Speaker 1 (38:54):
Jason, before we let you get out of here, because
you got you got very important worth it today with
the boss of the Volume podcast network and covered you
said you like the Knicks. I assume it's Nick six,
Nick seven, Knicks plus seven hundred in seven, NIX plus
three hundred in six.
Speaker 2 (39:12):
Where do you like the series?
Speaker 1 (39:15):
Exact number of games, exact series score to land.
Speaker 3 (39:19):
So I'm gonna go.
Speaker 5 (39:20):
I'm gonna go NIX and six. I think what will
end up happening is the Spurs will win Game two,
and then the Nix will win the two games in MSG,
the Spurs will save their season at home in Game five,
and then the Nicks will close them out in six.
That's what I think is going to happen. I have
to ask you, though, what is the line for a
Knick sweep? I know it sounds blasphemous, but I want
to hear it.
Speaker 1 (39:38):
Hold on, let me check that right now. I know
Matt Mitchell is a very good producer. Plus six hundred
right now.
Speaker 5 (39:45):
Plus six hundred. Yeah, I don't think that's a terrible line.
Like carar me out. The Knicks haven't lost in you know,
they won, They won what twelve games in a row.
They absolutely are capable of going in and winning tomorrow night,
at which point MSG's on fire for Game three, and
(40:11):
then you have a young team down three to zero MSG,
Like I said this on my show last night, I
don't think it's gonna happen, But like a sweep is
like so on the table, and like you want to
talk about a story like how does that break the
basketball world? If the Knicks sweep back to back to
back rounds in including sweeping the Spurs and we have
something like Karl Anthony Towns hoisting the Bill Russell Finals MVP.
Speaker 1 (40:34):
Trophy, amazing, the MSG is going to be on fire
no matter what for Game three. I would recommend anyone
who's going and is spending twenty five thousand dollars a
ticket just to sit in the three hundred level at MSG,
get there at three in the afternoon, and hope they
open the doors as quickly as possible, because if Trump
(40:56):
is going, as someone who went to the Indian International
Title Game where Trump was at, it took hours to
get in and that stadium allows seventy thousand people. So
MSG Game three is just going to be a live
fucking wire and it's going to be so awesome to watch.
Speaker 2 (41:16):
Oh my god, fucking Nicks.
Speaker 1 (41:18):
All right, that's our show. This has been Sharper Square,
part of the Volume podcast network. Watch or listen on
YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video, subscribe to the channel,
download us to Spotify, Applepods, wherever you get your POD's
rate review subscribe. We leave this five stars say whatever
you want. Feedback is a gift until next time.
Speaker 2 (41:35):
I love you.
Speaker 1 (41:37):
You know.
Speaker 2 (41:37):
They had established a friendly wager before these series begat
If the Pacers win, Spike Lee said he.
Speaker 3 (41:44):
Would cast Miller's wife, model up.
Speaker 2 (41:46):
Marisa in his next movie.
Speaker 1 (41:49):
If the next one, Miller would visit Mike Tyson imprisively