January 20, 2026 • 45 mins
Only four teams remain as the 2026 NFL Playoffs march towards Conference Championship Sunday. Betting expert Chad Millman is joined by professional sports gambler Simon Hunter to discuss every game for this penultimate weekend of NFL betting action. Together the duo provide initial betting picks and predictions for the Wild Card games, covering both spreads and totals as their free SHARP OR SQUARE PRO FOOTBALL PICK 'EM CONTEST continues throughout the playoffs at https://sharporsquare.thevolume.com/
First off, Chad reports on his time at the College Football Playoff National Championship game between his Indiana Hoosiers and the Miami Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium, as Indiana captures its first football national title in thrilling fashion behind MVP Fernando Mendoza and coach Curt Cignetti.
Moving to the NFL, today's betting coverage starts with their producer joining the show to comment on the firing of Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott and promotion of general manager Brandon Beane.
On Sunday, gambling action starts with the AFC Championship between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos. With quarterback Bo Nix lost to a broken ankle, Denver turns to backup Jarrett Stidham as home underdogs. He will square off with MVP candidate Drake Maye, who looks to keep the Patriots' incredible playoff run alive for coach Mike Vrabel.
On Sunday night, the NFC Championship game is a thriller between division foes. The Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks face each other for a third time this season, as quarterback Matthew Stafford led the Rams past the Chicago Bears last weekend in overtime. Is Sam Darnold ready to take the Seahawks to the promised land of a west coast Super Bowl? Chad and Simon have strong opinions. #Volume
0:03:00 - START
0:04:00 - INDIANA HOOSIERS VS. MIAMI HURRICANES RECAP
0:20:40 - BUFFALO BILLS FIRE SEAN MCDERMOTT
0:22:10 - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. DENVER BRONCOS
0:40:00 - LOS ANGELES RAMS VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
-- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard rot Bet. We
are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the
show that makes the squares. Sharper makes the wise guys
pay attention. I am Chad Moulman. I am joined as
always by my bff, my co host, Mike Companion, Mike
Badre Professional Better Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Hello, Simon, Chad, my man, you survived the hard rock.
Let's hear all about.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
It, dude. There's so much emotion flooding, so many memories
to unpack. This is what's beautiful about sports. So many
things are beautiful about sports. It's why we do this,
It's why we love it, like you me, Mitch, Like,
we are very passionate fans at heart of the teams
(00:53):
that we root for, and a lot of people who
we are connected within our universe are aware of how
passionate we are about sports and the teams that we
root for. Between the end of the game last night
and when I woke up this morning, I had more
than two hundred texts from people congratulating me on Indiana
winning the national title. And I just think that's amazing that, like,
(01:15):
there's so many people who understand, like the connection that
we all have to sports, that they would see Indiana
winning and know how much I love Indiana and be
texting me about it. I didn't have that many people
reach out with night kids right like. That is astonishing
to me. Yesterday was so freaking glorious and again sort
(01:40):
of in the theme of sports. Let me sort of
put some stuff in context for you here. So I
had mentioned on the show that, you know, I had
gone to Atlanta with my buddy Matt. We've been best
friends in second grade, right, Me, Matt and our buddy Andy.
We've all been grown up together. We went to grammar
(02:01):
school together, middle school together, high school together. We all
went to IU. Matt and Andy went to the Big
Ten title game. Me and Matt went to the game
in Atlanta, and then Andy met us in Miami for
the championship game along with Matt's wife, and my wife
was here. So on Monday morning, me and Matt and
(02:22):
our wives are sitting together at breakfast. And Matt and
I both started dating our wives in college, and Matt
and I were in college together. We met these women.
We met our wives studying abroad. They are very close friends.
We have had family vacations with all of our kids,
who are all in the same age age seven straight
spring breaks. Because they're in California, we're in Connecticut. The
(02:44):
spring breaks lined up. We are very very close. There's
no distance between us as families. Right at one point
yesterday morning and again, we had watched the Bears game together.
We were so antsy about that, but like the Bears,
we sort of we loved and they gave us a
great ride, but we didn't have expectations. And in the
(03:07):
morning at breakfast, it's about new let's say it's lunch.
Lisa's mom passed away recently, my wife's dad passed away
in the past couple of years, and they start having
this very intense conversation about grief and how they're trying
to process it but still take care of the parent
who was still alive. And in the middle of that,
(03:30):
I look at Matt and I'm like, what do you think.
He goes, We're fucked. We completely disconnected from this very
deep conversation because I said, he said we're fucked. I go,
we're not. And what he was talking about was the
karma the Bears had lost the night before. He thought
(03:52):
the karma of our fandom was going to be connected
to the Bears losing and now Indiana was going to lose.
We had a good fifty team minute conversation about is
the karma connected to us or is the karma connected
to the teams? And the way it finally came down.
I broke it down this way. The Bears they had
great karma this year, but they were not a team
(04:12):
of destiny. Their loss is not connected to our fandom
in Indiana's success or failure, because Indiana is better than karma.
They can outrun karma. They are not about this small
school that didn't do well, that doesn't have a football history.
Chris Signetti put all that aside. He said, this whole
(04:35):
narrative is rat poison. They are about the six seconds
that matter in the play and then what happens next,
and those players are not connected to each other. We
went through this whole thing. Our wives are having this
very intense conversation. This was our entire focus. We had
completely transitioned to putting ourselves in the mental mindset to
be at that game, to be fully committed to that game.
(04:58):
Thirteen hours later, we're in the car leaving the stadium
and I just go Matt he goes, Yeah, I go, Matt,
he goes, You're right, the karma was not connected. I
feel like anyone who is a sports fan, tell me
you can feel that, tell me you understand that, because
like my whole day was about like peak sports fan.
(05:21):
It was just freaking glorious.
Speaker 3 (05:25):
Yeah, I think all that stuff can matter to you,
but you know, doesn't really matter when when people praise
God the end of a football game. Was God really
reason they won that football game? But I think at
the end of the day, Kurt, then yes, yes, you
saw in that game the difference the right coach with
the right quarterback can make. Like I always say, and
(05:45):
that call on what was it fourth and two or
maybe it's fourth.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
And five, fourth and five?
Speaker 3 (05:51):
You know, it's like that, even if you said it
was a read, it was either gonna be a sneak
or like a quick pass. And I think he broke
it down where the defense was basically split and you
had to make a quick decision. You know, that was
we're playing to win. I'm not kicking the three here.
Either we get burned here, we get stopped, or we
were going for a touchdown. And you know, signetti talk
(06:14):
all the time, about how important coaching is, Like, I
just I can't believe it. You know, I'm gonna let
you basking it. I know you said, well, you already
turned down Penn State. There's no way he's going to
the NFL. I just can't get over how good of
a coach is and how there are nine opening jobs
right now, one of which could easily be filled by him.
But you know, if I'm an INDIANAFN, you know it's
(06:35):
gonna be tough to replace a quarterback, obviously, but if
he stays, it feels like this is just the beginning,
which is just crazy to think you guys becoming a
powerhouse in college football. But to go sixteen and zero,
to do that something we've never seen before. And you know,
in that game wasn't their best game, right, There's a
lot of things they did stop slopily, but all three aspects, right,
(06:56):
the defense showed up in the first half, the special
team showed up in the second half, and at the
end of the game when you needed the drive, you
needed the touchdown. You know, it's it's crazy. I can't
I still can't believe it, Chad. I'm honestly just like you,
I'm still in shock that the Indiana Hoosiers are the
first sixteen to oh team in college for plaedistry and
won the national titles. So, yeah, congrats to you, buddy,
And I'm just happy you went down there, because it's
(07:17):
you know, it's as a as a fan that has
been to a Super Bowl that his team lost and
I've never gone back. It's it's a huge risk, buddy.
I'm not gonna lie to you that that walk out
of the stadium isn't just a twenty minute walk to
your car, It's a five month walk through your life.
So I was so happy they won because the whole
time I was thinking, oh my god, poor Chad. Miami
(07:40):
has the ball, they're driving. It's on six points. They're
gonna get the touchdown here to win this game. And
like I said, the coaching matters. He took a random
time out let the defense reset led Beck in his
head say hey, I'm gonna take a deep shot here.
I'm gonna beat these guys in that time out and
threw a horrible pass in a double covered And yeah,
just again, I can't get over how great of a
(08:02):
coaching matermind it was. And Fernanda Mendoza your QB finally
dropped an F word. I was just so happy. I
was so happy you hear him drop that at the podium.
It's just I'm excited for Man again. It's gonna highly debated,
we'll talk about in the draft, but in that moment,
it's like, Man talk about being on the top of
the world, being your hometown team. Oh my god, they
(08:23):
rejected you. Life full circle. It was a beautiful moment.
Speaker 1 (08:27):
Listen, it's so funny that you mentioned that walk right
because we were sitting in that game and the oh god,
we were sitting in that game, and you know the
Hoosiers head first, we thought it was a first down
with just after the two minute time out, and then
they made it a second one. And then we're even
(08:48):
happier because we're like, okay, second one, Like they get
the first down and we're in great position. Miami has
to start using all this time out so they'll get
the ball back with sixteen seconds left and we'll to
kick a field goal and be up six, right, and
then that false start happens, and we immediately looked at
each other and we're like, we just lost the national championship.
(09:11):
Because everyone could see how it was going to play
out like they We're going to end up having like
one hundred and two seconds, and that's plenty of time
in college football if youre getting first downs. So yeah,
we were starting to envision that walk back. But like
you talk about investing in teams and going to the
(09:33):
games and taking that risk, you know, we spend so
much time rooting for these teams and like loving these
teams and loving investing our time and our energy in
these teams, and like every season ends in disappointment for
every fan except for one team. And I felt that
(09:54):
twenty four hours earlier with the Bears, And like, you know,
as we mentioned the last episode at as Matt Mitchell
reminded us, it's only through suffering that we feel most alive.
Speaker 3 (10:10):
But to one of the biggest losers is this would
be the Cardinals winning a two years from now, the
biggest joke loser franchise, just totally getting the head coach
and turn around. I literally I'm in shock. I can't
get over it.
Speaker 2 (10:24):
It is true.
Speaker 1 (10:25):
I called my younger son after the game leaving the stadium,
and like, was so caught up in my feelings. I
just told him, like I cannot wait for him to
have this kind of experience. I don't know when it's
going to happen. I don't know what it's going to
happen when he's in college. I don't it's gonna happen
when he'sut of college. Don't know it's gonna happen when
he's in his fifties.
Speaker 3 (10:42):
Like me.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
I want it for him so bad. I want him
to feel this in person. It is such a freaking high,
Like I haven't even felt like a functioning human being
for the past two weeks, between getting organized to go
to Atlanta, going to Atlanta that unbelievable experience, and then
turning around to decide and we're going to Miami without
even having tickets yet, and then hard Rock coming through
(11:04):
for us, which, by the way, in all seriousness, like
they crushed it. I was in Florida. I downloaded the
app and was online in the app in thirty seconds,
like this was a no joke, unbelievably good product. And
then I did go to the casino yesterday. A lot
of people probably saw the video that I posted. It
was bonkers. It was like being in Vegas. It was
(11:26):
glorious inside the casino in the sportsbook was rocking.
Speaker 2 (11:29):
So before we move on, are you are you? Is there? Parade?
Is how they do it? For the who'shreason?
Speaker 1 (11:34):
It's a good question. I don't know. I can't. I
can't go to the parade somewhere. I've got to get
back to life. And by the way, Kirkwood in Bloomington
last night was literally on fire. Like what you know,
my buddy Matt, the Poles, I didn't see them grease
and polls, but my buddy Matt, his kid is a
sophomore in Indiana. He was just sending videos to us
while we were in the car driving back, like of
(11:56):
all the video like the craziness that was happening at
the bars. It was people were camping out, like the
bars that I used to go to in college. People
that started camping out the night before to get in.
Speaker 2 (12:06):
And those are other colleges. They're probably like thirty forty
year olds.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
Dude. They were charging three thousand dollars for a table
to watch the championship game at some of the bars
of Bloomington last night.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
Now, you guys have a huge alumni. Man, It's it
is wild final thing.
Speaker 1 (12:19):
I'll said. There is just an argument that Indiana just
had the greatest college football season of all time, as
you mentioned, first team that's sixteen or oh since eighteen
ninety four, second best point differential of all time, had
the Heisman winner, top five defense, top five offense, beat
Iowa on the road, beat Oregon on the road, beat
Penn State on the road, beat the number one ranked
(12:44):
defending national champion Ohio State. Buck guys in the Big
Ten title game, as you pointed out, the only team
so far in the playoff era to win coming off
the buy, which shows you how good their coaching is.
And they dominated Alabama Oregon and then beat Miami in Miami,
and I would say it felt like a home game
for the Hoosiers, Like easily sixty five percent of the
(13:06):
stadium was Indiana. Like you could see the line Miami
maybe had from the fifty to like the back of
one end zone. Indiana had from the back of that
end zone all the way around to the other fifty.
It was remarkable how many Indiana fans are. It's just
(13:27):
just glorious. Meanwhile, just being slapped back to reality, Simon, Yeah,
one and four in the contest again last week. This
is our first one and four back to back weeks
in our history, bad beats, bad calls mixed together. Bad
calls by us, by the way, not refs. I'm no
Sean McDermot. I'm not complaining about the rest by bad
(13:50):
beats and bad calls did us in loss with Seattle,
San Francisco under forty five and a half, New England
Houston under forty and a half, San Francisco plus seven
and a half, the Rams minus four and a half,
one with New England minus three and a half. In
our nine week hard Rock Bet contest, we are now
fifty three and forty seven with two weeks left. Let's
(14:13):
look at the leaderboard. In our sharp Square Pro Football contest,
four entries are now tied at the top of twenty
five wins. The entry named Roe Pomo sits on top.
Matt Mitchell looked up their tiebreaker differentials. The top two
entries are separated by under one hundred yards, so it's
going to be a dog fight to the finish folks.
Speaker 2 (14:35):
Good luck.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
This is our Tuesday Conference Championship Round show. We're done
with Chat's choice for the season. We're basically done with
our named bets. But Simon, you do have a Simon says,
so we'll get to that. We have a brass balls.
We'll have our normal Tuesday Thursday shows through the end
of the season. We'll do our normal Sunday pre kickoff.
(14:59):
We will do our Sunday night show after ram Seahawks.
These will be our final Sunday episodes. As always, we
do not do Sunday episodes on Super Bowl Sunday. We'll
have the four regular episodes over those two weeks. Okay,
final order of business. This week's slate includes sides and
totals for the conference championship games if you are in
(15:22):
love with these games. As we teased, we've also added
player props, one per team, all hands selected by Matt Mitchell.
We'll mention each one as we get into the show.
And of course we can't start without a word from
our friend Matt Mitchell about the Buffalo Bills doing the
(15:42):
right thing and firing Sean McDermott. Matt, what do you
got to say here?
Speaker 4 (15:46):
I am surprised at how universally negative the reaction has been,
mostly from Bills fans because of the ascension of GM
Brandon Bean to basically president of football Operations in a
move reminiscent of Tom Donahoe's disastrous ten year as president
twenty five years ago. I shouldn't be surprised, because only
(16:08):
a loser fan base like ours could see a bad
thing happen and a really good thing happened and think
that no good things have happened. They don't seem to
remember Sean McDermott running, among a million other mistakes, a
fake punt with Zamar Hamlin with the season on the line.
I would have thrown him over Niagara Falls with my
own hands after that play, and he still got the
(16:31):
coach and kind of rehabbed his image a lot this
year with a pretty lousy roster.
Speaker 2 (16:35):
But I am not a.
Speaker 4 (16:37):
Disciple of the cult of very good. The Bills are
very good. They've been very good for six years. I
am happy to slide back into the depths to spin
the wheel and perhaps become a championship team. The fact
that the players liked him a lot. I couldn't imagine
something I care less about than the players liking the
coach if it's a non championship coach like the Eagles,
(17:00):
seem to absolutely hate their coach's guts, and he's made
it two super Bowls and he's one one. We have
teams like the Patriots win super Bowls, totally bottom out,
hire a coach, fire a coach, get a whole new quarterback,
and have already exceeded our own success in the time
it's taken us to try to get to a super Bowl.
So like it feels ludicrous to be too upset about this.
(17:23):
And the last thing I'll say is, I'm seeing some
of the Bills mafia leadership selling a mug that says
Buffalo versus the refs, maybe one of the biggest loser
pieces of such a If everyone listening to this, if
you see me drinking out of that mug, it's because
it contains the elixir that will end my life. That's
(17:45):
the only excuse for drinking out of something like that.
If you're a Buffalo Bills fan, Guys, we got it.
We got to get our heads right and start worrying
about things that matter, like one championship before we all die.
Speaker 1 (17:56):
Thank you, Chip, Thank you Mad From the high to
the low. Let's get into it. New England at Denver,
this game at hard Rock Bet. I looked it up
this morning on the hard rock bed app Denver plus
five and a half the total is forty two. Look,
obviously the story here is Jared Stidham starting for bon Nix.
(18:20):
Line hasn't really budged since Sunday night. There's actually one
five out there, and there's there are a couple of
totals at forty one and a half. Salmon, I want
to ask you, like I thought if Bonix was starting
this line one and a half for two, you know,
a seven point swing, what do you think?
Speaker 2 (18:40):
Simon says, give me the Denver Broncos. I want to
play a game.
Speaker 1 (18:45):
Simon says, I.
Speaker 3 (18:47):
Might be putting my life savings on this Broncos team
with this number. Chat, this is how egregious this line
movement is in Wow. Yeah, it's it's too much, way
too much. As much respect as I'm giving to bon Nicks,
I do think.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
He is a reason they are where they're at. He's
been great this year.
Speaker 3 (19:02):
But I had them at a minus three and a
half point favorite, the Broncos over New England. We even
with their injuries to the wide receiver position. You're you're
telling me bow Nicks is worth eight nine points.
Speaker 2 (19:15):
It's not. It's impossible.
Speaker 3 (19:17):
This is just simply public overreacting investing way too much
money into just a horrible number. And you know, right
away when I saw this matchup, it's like, Okay, we'll
see you know. Can I just be patient because I
didn't want to say anything Sunday night. I knew right
away I'm gonna be hamming this one. I remember you
had something about Stidham and like I was messing with you,
(19:38):
but it was really like, okay, can this get the six?
And we just literally I was gonna put an obscene
amount of money on this if it ever got the six.
Speaker 2 (19:46):
So I still might.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
I'm just grabbing the five at f now because there's
no way that professionals don't come in and just hammer
this line.
Speaker 1 (19:52):
Yeah, I mean we've seen it start to go down.
Speaker 2 (19:54):
Me and Chat talked a little bit about it.
Speaker 3 (19:56):
Is much praise I gave Drake May ready through three touchdowns,
it wasn't impressive. Their offense could not do anything against
that Houston defense. Now, do I think Denver's defense is
as good as Houston?
Speaker 2 (20:06):
No, I do not. I do think they can get
after a quarterback.
Speaker 3 (20:09):
And what have we seen so far early in Drake
May's career here chat against good defenses, seems like he
struggles to protect.
Speaker 2 (20:16):
The ball, and let's just run through it again.
Speaker 3 (20:18):
It's gonna be a non biased stat two games Drake May,
he's taken ten sacks. Ten sacks again, that's yeah, that's
good defenses. He's fumbled six times, Chad, not just many fumbles,
six fumbles, and he's throwing two picks like he's just
he struggled to exactly what we thought he would struggle
(20:38):
right against good defenses. My whole view of that was just,
you know, last week, I thought that was a really
tough spot for Houston to walk into.
Speaker 2 (20:46):
I did not I had no idea. Cesn't have to
tip a meltdown. But that's what really saved Drake May.
Speaker 3 (20:50):
Right, New England fans, they should be happy, right their quarterback,
this this new toy. He did throw those three touchdowns
despite all those bad turnovers and how slotpy he played,
he showed up in the red zone.
Speaker 2 (21:01):
So I get why they're so excited.
Speaker 3 (21:03):
The public though, to come in with the Patriots fans
on this one and overreact totally to that game, and
I mean they've left the Broncos for dead, totally left
for dead. Just yeah, the media is talking about it
and it's another play where we don't have to take
the Broncos money line.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
If you I am obviously gonna bet it.
Speaker 3 (21:19):
It's the move here is simply taking the Broncos at
thirt you know, thirteen to one for the Super Bowl.
That's what they're at in a lot of books, like again,
they're deader than dead. They're thirteen to one and all
if they would he was winning two games. You will
never see these odds again ever in the rest of
your life because this is so unique. We've never had
a conference champion teap team. I think they've been a three.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
Point dog before over three points, never in my lifetime.
And I looked Evan Adams, It's never happened before. So
this is totally unique.
Speaker 3 (21:48):
And you know, I'm about to hit people over the
head with thousands of stats because that's you know, I
want something to back it up here. But just strictly
being a better here, people, you have to understand this
is said that you need to blindly make always like
when you see this type of number with a backup quarterback, Yes,
if this was a backup quarterback who was their first
year in the NFL, I wouldn't be as confident about this.
(22:10):
We talked about he's played games, right, I know he's
won in three his career, but he's played in games
he's faced NFL competition. Now, I know this is the
first playoff start, which is an ideal, but it's like, Okay,
this is the guy that's been in Champaign's offense now
for two years. You expect him to be comfortable enough
to make plays against the Patri's defense that yes, they
are good, right, They've had good turnovers these last two games.
(22:32):
I really think the Chargers and Houston they are both
in my rankings and the bottom thirty of offensive lines
Denver Broncos number two. This is night and day between
what you can do scheme wise, and you know, New
England's defense looked like world beaters.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
I mean, let's be honest here, they've had a lot
of help.
Speaker 3 (22:53):
With the weather and the I mean just pissport quarterback play,
which once again, you can say it's all about the defense,
but come on, CJ was so bad in that game
you can't just simply say that was defensive place.
Speaker 2 (23:03):
So Chad's gonna love this one.
Speaker 3 (23:06):
We got burned earlier in the playoffs fading the Carolina
Panthers at a nine point dog at home if the
line closes at anything above three and a half for
this Broncos team, or four, I should say, in the
last fifty years in the playoffs, dogs of four points
are more at home in the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (23:23):
I don know.
Speaker 3 (23:24):
Against the spread, they just don't lose. So we've seen
it right. The public has overreacted. This number opened at
three three and a half, immediately, got seemed to four,
immediately got seem to four and a half.
Speaker 2 (23:36):
Now it's at five and a half at a couple
of different books.
Speaker 3 (23:38):
So you know, I again, I'm trying to be patient here,
but every book maker I know is gonna be calling
me up begging me to bet Broncos for him, because
it's just going to be all Patriots money.
Speaker 2 (23:48):
They're just gonna be hammering it. And you know, I
usually go and roll over my tickets.
Speaker 3 (23:53):
I've just been letting my Patriots money sit out there
because I'm gonna go those books and just take all
that money roll it over in this process team that's
and this is probably my biggest bet of the playoffs.
I thought Newland was going to be I just cannot
believe this number is growing to five and a half
chat Wow at this point.
Speaker 1 (24:07):
Well, listen, I'm inspired, and I was with you. It
just seemed like too much of an overreaction. The evidence
we need lies in a man named Nick Foles, who
had a glorious tweet supporting the Broncos and their fans
(24:28):
about what is possible when a backup comes in. Obviously
he had a little bit more of a run at
the end of that Eagle season, which you're aware of,
but they still went through the playoffs as pretty big underdogs.
And I remember this very clearly. We had just launch
action in January of twenty eighteen in the middle of
(24:49):
those playoffs, and we rode the Eagles all the way
through the Super Bowl saying take the Eagles at five
and a half. Take the Eagles at five and a half.
So it's Jared Stadem. We have no idea, but it's
a pretty good example of what can happen. He has
been an NFL quarterback. And don't forget Jared's Didham thought
he was good enough that when they drafted bo Nicks
(25:11):
and immediately named him the starter, he was really pissed,
Like he is not a guy who's thinking I'm coming
in and I'm going to be a placeholder like maybe
say Ben Denucci, who was analyzing the game, I think
for ESPN and then tweeted about the Broncos and then
all of a sudden, now he's a backup for the
(25:32):
Broncos playing in the AFC title game. Like you're seeing
Matt Mitchell if you're watching the video on YouTube, he's
throwing up the tweets from Nick Foles and Ben Denucci.
But wow, what a game. I'm with you one hundred percent.
Are we are totally aligned?
Speaker 3 (25:47):
And people ask you, is there is he even worth
betting the Super Bowl future? Because again, I love the
number enough that's gonna be my biggest But obviously it's
really just about Champayne. Champagne is actually really good as
a dog in his career. He's twelve and ten straight
up when he's listened at a home underdog in any
game in his life. So basically, if you've bet one
hundred bucks since he started being a home dog, you'll
(26:08):
be up seven hundred and forty four dollars. I mean,
even this season, he's two and zero straight up as
a home dog. He beat the Packers and the Chiefs.
Thank you, Evan abramsl was a great, great pulling. You know,
just looking at all these matchups, it's like, Okay, there
has to be some negatives, right, and there is right.
The first one that jumped out to me was, okay,
(26:28):
what the Broncos did just play an overtime game, which
again we're gonna get to the Rams game obviously, but
the status can jump right away is well. One we
always talk about it's really tough to play playoff games
and when you add in the overtime just to wear
and tear that is that extra quarter on guy's bodies.
You hear expayers talk about it. It's brutal because you've
(26:49):
already played eighteen nineteen weeks of football. Now you're playing
an extra quarter on top of that another game, and
it just adds up because it's usually short week for
some of these teams.
Speaker 2 (26:59):
Right. Luckily for this Brockers team, they did play on
the Saturday. But I'll just go to the steat anyway.
Speaker 3 (27:04):
Since twenty fifteen teams off of bye I mean off
an overtime game facing teams that did not play an
overtime game, they are ten and eighteen straight up, eleven
and seventeen against the spread. So you know, plays into
what people think here, which is it's really tough to
play after a playoff game.
Speaker 2 (27:22):
Another amazing staff from m Arams.
Speaker 3 (27:24):
In the playoffs, when a team wins a playoff game
and now they're in the next round of a playoff game,
they're zero to five straight up one and four. I
guess it's spread since twenty fifteen, losing by fifteen points
per game. So I'm not saying it's it's not gonna
beet uphill battle right both these teams.
Speaker 1 (27:40):
Oh wait, what's the context for that stat you just gave.
I feel like I didn't hear it.
Speaker 3 (27:45):
The context is if you play an overtime game, then
you have another playoff game the next game.
Speaker 1 (27:49):
Got it.
Speaker 3 (27:49):
The historical fact is our zero to five straight up
in one and four since twenty fifteen. And you know,
if you want to go back even further, which I
think luckily Evan did thousand since two thousand and two,
teams are just six and thirteen straight up in the
playoffs in this exact spot. So it's really hard. It's
really hard to really get that far up on Denver.
That's why it's like, don't you don't have to take
(28:10):
the money line. The straight up number is so tough.
Just just take that future on the Super Bowl future
at thirteen to one. But to me, the number that's
the key here. I'm really wanting to get people hammering
this five and a half number. I think that's that's
the key is the Patriots could win, right, Drake may
has been perfect this season, has not lost the road
game this year.
Speaker 2 (28:28):
He's eight.
Speaker 3 (28:28):
No, straight up, can they steal it White get a
field at the end of the game. Neither of us
would be shocked. But to me, that's where we talk
about the lines move too much. Three and a half
is right for this game. Five and a half. You're
getting two free points here. And I again, I can't
tell you how excited I was to see this one.
So yeah, this is I love Bennett. And then as
soon as I saw those trends from Evan which I
(28:49):
gave out the top of the show, that plus four
dog nine to zero last fifty years, It's like, oh
my god, this is just lining up. The public is
going to get absolutely crushed on this one because there
were just going to keep hitting this Patriots. Yes, I'm
giving out time, it says, just in case the pros
you come in and bet this down below four, but
you know five and a half that just feels a
good gift.
Speaker 1 (29:09):
Do we have opinion on the total? Forty two at
hard Rock, forty one and a half other places, you know,
the Broncos had a little The Broncos were ten and
eight to the end of this year. They had a
stretch where they were just giving up loads of points
in the fourth quarter. And it's one of the reasons
why we liked, ultimately like the over after some back
and forth waffling this past weekend, because they do give
(29:32):
up points in the fourth quarter when they have those moments.
I feel like that's not likely to happen in this game.
The Patriots were what were they hold on? Twelve and
seven to the under. One of those unders was the
last game of the season against the Chargers when no
(29:53):
one was playing for the Chargers. So do we have
a feeling on the under here?
Speaker 2 (29:57):
Yeah, I'm honestly thinking towards the over. I'll be patient.
Speaker 3 (30:00):
Another thing where I'm not going to rush to bet
it here on a Tuesday for a Sunday game and
an atmosphere or Denver that we have no idea that
what the weather could be. I mean, I don't a
huge chat, but people are going crazy. I might look
like we might get the once in a lifetime blizzard
on Sunday. So I don't know how that affects the
rest of the country on Saturday or Sunday or what's
gonna be going on in Colorado obviously, But for this one,
(30:22):
it's just like I said last week. If if they
show Denver and you see it's sunny, thirty five degrees
out with barely any wind.
Speaker 2 (30:29):
You play the over like it's just whatever that is.
Speaker 3 (30:32):
It's usually a track meet in Denver when it's it's nice,
cool player like that, and both these quarterbacks I think
could turn the Bowl over. Like watching Sedem's tape, he
does make great throws, high risk type of thrower. He
will try to take that risky play. We'll see if
Champayne beat that out of him these.
Speaker 2 (30:49):
Last two years.
Speaker 3 (30:50):
But a lot of these guys are what they are,
and as as good as I think he is as
a downfield thrower, he does like to take high risks.
So I already gave you those Drake maystats. He's been
highly turnover prone. Now going up against once again a
really good defensive line the flip side, you know, instead
of his first star. We've seen New England be really
great at turning teams over right now, you expect a
lot of short fields, so you know, to me, early
(31:12):
bets I see coming on the over I could see
professionals coming on the over here, but I could see
the public shooting towards the owner just because they're like, well,
backup quarterback two. Good defense to be low scoring, but yeah, Mari,
now makelnation is going to go the other way.
Speaker 2 (31:26):
Could be a high sporting type of game.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
Well, look, we wanted to mention a couple of player
props from this game. You just mentioned turnover, Jared Stadham interceptions.
We don't have to give an opinion on this yet.
His over owner is going to be set at half.
Drake May passing touchdowns, the over owner is going to
be set at one and a half in the contest.
(31:48):
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New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. The next game NFC Country's
Title Game Rams at Seahawks. The numbers two and a half,
(33:33):
the totals forty seven and a half. Pretty much locked
in at two and a half since Sunday night. A
little bit of money coming in at hard Rock because
it's at minus one twenty two and a half minus
one twenty, so we're seeing money coming in on the Seahawks. Simon,
We've got a couple of interesting comps here, and I
want to run through sort of the circumstances for each
(33:53):
of the games that these two teams have played, they
split the division series. So this is the third time
to play in this year. I really want to bet
the Rams, and I feel like I'm visualizing and imagining
the Rams at their peak, and too often this year
(34:14):
the Rams have brain farts, like they have these moments
where Matthew Stafford is missing and Sean McVay is playing
either conservatively or not aggressive enough for making bad play calls.
He've admitted he wasn't making great calls on on Sunday night.
Anyone who watched that game saw they dominated when they
(34:34):
ran the ball, they struggled when they were trying to
pass the ball, and he could not get his team
to commit to the run. So am I wrong for
wanting to commit to the Rams? Here?
Speaker 2 (34:47):
Simon says, Now, I I'm with you.
Speaker 1 (34:50):
I'm like I'm says presented by Hard Run.
Speaker 3 (34:53):
Back Emilia was gonna absolutely hammer the s Yhawks team
just because the like you've said, the bar is just
set so high. I think you're at the same level
as me where I've set the bar so high that
it's tough for them to even live up to that bar.
And every week they've kind of fallen short of that bar. Yeah,
you know they're Also, this is the first time ever
(35:16):
a team has not covered in the wild card round,
the divisional round and are still alive here in the
in the conference championship.
Speaker 2 (35:26):
So this rams team.
Speaker 3 (35:28):
As much grief as you want to get them, it's
it's hard to want to go against them because they've
just they figure out a way, they find a way
to win these games. And the regular season they kept
finding ways to blow games. So I'll give them respect.
Like that Panthers game, easy could have lost that game.
Your Bears game, they tried, I my god, did they try?
They give Caleb the chance to end them at the.
Speaker 1 (35:50):
End there, Oh my god, did I try?
Speaker 2 (35:53):
The defense found a way to get the turnover.
Speaker 1 (35:54):
So it's just going to pass by my TikTok trend
shout out. Okay, that's fine.
Speaker 2 (35:59):
I don't. I don't. I'm and I'm a grown man.
I don't have TikTok. I'm sorry, buddy.
Speaker 1 (36:02):
Well, all I've done for the past twelve hours is
watch Indiana TikTok practically in tears when like they've got
Fernando Mendoza's touchdown run set to like a prayer from Madonna.
And at the end you see his mom in the
wheelchair like crying hysterically, and the dad who won't stand
in cheer out of respect, not being able to stand
(36:22):
in cheer, and They're hugging and crying, and then I'm crying.
And then I send it to my friends. I send
it to Andy and Matt and I'm like, you, guys
are not going to be able to not cry at
the end of this. So yeah, I have TikTok because
it keeps me engaged with my community.
Speaker 3 (36:36):
I got cold in my heart every time they showed
her with does I think they had the kids miked
up for the game cheed? Obviously you missed it because
you were there, And I was just like, my god, yes,
they told you. I hate the collegeway college football.
Speaker 2 (36:48):
Does.
Speaker 3 (36:48):
We're like Gus Johnson thing that kid was living in
a car last week. Now I scoring a touchdown and
they always have to try to make you cry.
Speaker 2 (36:56):
I hate it. They always try to get you in college.
Speaker 1 (36:58):
Well, listen, I put you on a bad path. I
apolog Jazz. Were you were about to tell me why
we're not betting the Rams, which even though I want
to when.
Speaker 3 (37:06):
I'm right there with you when you said that. That
was my initial thought to you, because it's I think
you're the same thought as me. It's that same as
the Broncos. Who is not going to be hammering the Seahawks.
Who's betting the Rams? Nobody? Like I said, they've not
covered now last two weeks, they haven't looked right in
I don't know, eight weeks, like you said, they they
they kind of putter it out here at the end
(37:28):
and it's like, well, they've had a brutal run. This
will be their fourth straight road game, Like that's just
I know Arizona shouldn't count because it was before the playoffs,
but it's like, that's still a road game. They still
had to go on the road. That's nothing to poop
poo about. Like that's that's really hard. Like I said,
after eighteen games already, you know, eighteen weeks, I should say.
(37:49):
And now they have another three straight road games and
this one, you know, just again, let's just go off
the lazy stats. An extra day of rest, could that
even matter that much? Shed Yes, that's what I'm trying
to beat into people's heads here, how worn out all
these players are. Just an extra day of rest or
a wretch a rest advantage team in the conference championship
(38:09):
twenty seven and seventeen straight up if the team's at
home with the rest of advantage twenty one and seven,
So that twenty one and seven straight up.
Speaker 2 (38:18):
So that goes for the Seahawks in Denver.
Speaker 3 (38:20):
Like both of them already at an advantage just being
at home in this exact spot. And you know, the
more I try to go into it, the more I'm
trying to find the reasons to bet this Rams team.
It just can we talk about the injuries, right they
might be down their number one and number two quarterbacks,
which I don't know if Sam Donald can exploit, but
I definitely saw it.
Speaker 2 (38:41):
The way the Bears exploited it was they could not tackle.
Speaker 3 (38:44):
I think they had twenty broken tackles in that game
against the Rams, which is by far the most the
Rams have given up all season. Like, that's just not
the type of defense they run. Usually, they're very well coached,
well tackled team. What you've seen when these backup cornerbacks
are coming in, you know, they don't want to lay
the thump on these running backs right there, their cover corners.
There's a reason they're not starters, not not only because
(39:06):
it's not great at covering, but sometimes not great tacklers.
I mean, how many times did your running backs break tackles?
And now you know, obviously huge blow to the lost Charbonne, which, yeah,
if you haven't been found with the Seahawks this year,
I know you might look at the statue like, well,
he's not been that impressive. He has this rare ability
to find the end zone in the in the red zone,
like he just always would fund the end zone. And
(39:26):
that was the big reason they've used this so much
down there was those tough yards you'd always fight through.
It was just a different style of running. And you know,
now they're down to still a great running back, but
it was a big deal, right, they had a two
headed horse that they've leaned on these last couple of weeks.
I mean Stafford that Stafford Donald's probably thrown for three
hundred yards in ten weeks. Like they've just totally leaned
(39:47):
into the run game and this defense then the season here.
Speaker 2 (39:50):
And it's carried them.
Speaker 3 (39:51):
So looking at this matchup, you know, as bad as
Darnald's injury as I think what we talk we talked
about last week, I think get twelve completions were and
seventeen past the ten they were able to hide it
right that that that game toldly went their way. This
game they won't be able to But it's another week
of rest on that oblique like, I think that is
gonna help him. And obviously, you know, I think Shane
Han sold him out, like talking about him getting shot up.
(40:13):
They'll do the same thing here, right, They'll shoot him up.
He won't be able to field it anyway. And you
know all these numbers I keep going through with this
RAMS team, Can they win this game? Yes, we've talked
about they've it's really hard in your division playing the
same team three times, and you know this this is
gonna be the toughest matchup of the Sawks of face.
But I feel like it's too much Overcumchad, all the
(40:36):
road games, all the injuries. It's just eventually gotta pop
up on this RAMS team. So I'm interesting what the
pros are gonna do with this number, Like I already
know the pros are gonna be with Mother Broncos I
really am to see what they're gonna do with this one,
because to me, you saw ten, maybe eleven of the
twenty books here in Jersey hit three and then some
(40:56):
group came in and hammered the Rams because every book
went right back to two and a half. So I
can't wait to find out more by the time we
get the Thursday show, what's going to that one?
Speaker 2 (41:04):
But right away I know it's it's boring, it's shockey.
But I like both the home teams.
Speaker 3 (41:09):
I like the Broncos, like the Seahawks, especially Seahawks at
two and a half. But I'm just being pated on
this one because it's if there's that much resistance of three,
maybe we get back to the one and a half,
which is what this number opened up with the Seahawks.
Speaker 2 (41:21):
So it's a number ernother number.
Speaker 3 (41:22):
I'm gonna patron on see if it does come down,
and see what the professionals doing this one. But I mean,
everyone's gonna see these trends I've talked about. Everyone's gonna
see these trends against the Rams. It's just it's a brutal,
brutal schedule for them to overcome and talk about the NFL.
I know they don't care, they're just trying to get
the TV product, but to have the Rams play Sunday
night and then an overtime game.
Speaker 2 (41:45):
I mean, that's just so brutal.
Speaker 3 (41:46):
Now they have to go on the road and play
a Seahawks team that basically rested all their starters in
the fourth quarter, so they haven't really played a full
four quarters in three weeks. It's just it feels like
it's too much Chad. So yeah, it's people can see.
I really love this one.
Speaker 2 (42:00):
I really, I really am interested whe the number goes.
Speaker 1 (42:03):
Look there's a lot of comps from those two games
where the Rams really did. I'll play them in a significant,
significant way. I'm with you, though, It's why I haven't
pulled the trigger like I want to be on the Rams.
But part of me was waiting to see if we
can get to a solid three. And also part of
(42:26):
me feels like it's a little bit off because I'm
imagining something that might not be there in a consistent way.
So I appreciate you talking me down a little bit here.
Speaker 3 (42:34):
I have not give a staff from Evan just just
talking about these road teams. So it's a third consecutive
road game in the playoffs. So teams in this exact spot,
this in the regular shoes, even the playoffs, they're forty
eight and seventy nine straight up, so thirty seven percent,
which is what you're looking at success rate or win rate.
Speaker 2 (42:56):
For the Rams here.
Speaker 3 (42:58):
When the team is lists un dog, which is what
the Rams are, they are twenty two and sixty seven
straight up, so even worse, twenty four percent. When we're
in the playoffs, it's the third straight road game in
the playoffs, those teams twelve and thirty straight up, so
twenty eight percent. That is nine and twenty eight straight up,
(43:19):
so twenty four percent. When their list is an underdog,
like it's just you blind the guy to bet the
Seahawks here, Like it's just all the numbers back up
exactly where're talking about the rest is arities too much.
And you know, I think, Chatty, you nail at the
top where I think it's because I'm the same way
where I had the ramp power rate it so high
coming into the I think that was week twelve or
week thirteen right.
Speaker 2 (43:37):
Now, way I love everyone else, it's really come way
back down.
Speaker 3 (43:41):
And after last week with the Seahawks and that performance
for their defense, I did bump them up to be
the number one team, right and it reflected I think
the books have them as maybe is a plus one
hundred a plus one ten super Bowl favorite right now,
which makes total sense. Like, of all the teams left,
they are by far the most complete team despite all
the questions of the quarterback position. So yeah, it's crazy
to think I'm talking about a Stenham versus Darnold super
(44:05):
Bowl here, but I think that's where we're looking at here.
Speaker 1 (44:07):
Brother, all right, we'll get more into the total. I
want to dig in a little bit more on the
comps from those two games and see if anything sort
of moves us aggressively.
Speaker 3 (44:19):
Under Again, you said we'll talk more about it. I
just like the mother total. I have no early play
here in the week. I just I've been both sides
early here. But on the total, for me, I'm not
rushing about it.
Speaker 1 (44:28):
The player prop Jackson Smith and Jigma total touchdowns over
under a half. Matthew's staff for the longest completion will
be over under thirty nine and a half. Those will
be in the contest. Listen, we got three games left
in the season. Indiana University are the national champions in
(44:52):
college football. It has been a wild January. I got
to get back to a little bit of a normal life.
Appreciate everyone coming along for the ride. I appreciate Hard
rough Bet hooking me up with some Ducats for a glorious,
glorious experience here in Miami. This has been Sharper Square,
(45:13):
part of the Volume podcast Network. We will be back
on Thursday. We'll nail down the picks. We'll get to
some brass ball, so much more. Watch or listen on
youtubeer Sharper Square. Like the video, subscribe to the channel,
download us some Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods.
Rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want.
Feedback is a gift until next time. Love you.
Speaker 2 (45:36):
The road to the super Bowl is like a mythic quest.
It's a demanding journey, an adventure that creates heroes.
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard rot Bet. We
are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the
show that makes the squares. Sharper makes the wise guys
pay attention. I am Chad Moulman. I am joined as
always by my bff, my co host, Mike Companion, Mike
Badre Professional Better Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Hello, Simon, Chad, my man, you survived the hard rock.
Let's hear all about.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
It, dude. There's so much emotion flooding, so many memories
to unpack. This is what's beautiful about sports. So many
things are beautiful about sports. It's why we do this,
It's why we love it, like you me, Mitch, Like,
we are very passionate fans at heart of the teams
(00:53):
that we root for, and a lot of people who
we are connected within our universe are aware of how
passionate we are about sports and the teams that we
root for. Between the end of the game last night
and when I woke up this morning, I had more
than two hundred texts from people congratulating me on Indiana
winning the national title. And I just think that's amazing that, like,
(01:15):
there's so many people who understand, like the connection that
we all have to sports, that they would see Indiana
winning and know how much I love Indiana and be
texting me about it. I didn't have that many people
reach out with night kids right like. That is astonishing
to me. Yesterday was so freaking glorious and again sort
(01:40):
of in the theme of sports. Let me sort of
put some stuff in context for you here. So I
had mentioned on the show that, you know, I had
gone to Atlanta with my buddy Matt. We've been best
friends in second grade, right, Me, Matt and our buddy Andy.
We've all been grown up together. We went to grammar
(02:01):
school together, middle school together, high school together. We all
went to IU. Matt and Andy went to the Big
Ten title game. Me and Matt went to the game
in Atlanta, and then Andy met us in Miami for
the championship game along with Matt's wife, and my wife
was here. So on Monday morning, me and Matt and
(02:22):
our wives are sitting together at breakfast. And Matt and
I both started dating our wives in college, and Matt
and I were in college together. We met these women.
We met our wives studying abroad. They are very close friends.
We have had family vacations with all of our kids,
who are all in the same age age seven straight
spring breaks. Because they're in California, we're in Connecticut. The
(02:44):
spring breaks lined up. We are very very close. There's
no distance between us as families. Right at one point
yesterday morning and again, we had watched the Bears game together.
We were so antsy about that, but like the Bears,
we sort of we loved and they gave us a
great ride, but we didn't have expectations. And in the
(03:07):
morning at breakfast, it's about new let's say it's lunch.
Lisa's mom passed away recently, my wife's dad passed away
in the past couple of years, and they start having
this very intense conversation about grief and how they're trying
to process it but still take care of the parent
who was still alive. And in the middle of that,
(03:30):
I look at Matt and I'm like, what do you think.
He goes, We're fucked. We completely disconnected from this very
deep conversation because I said, he said we're fucked. I go,
we're not. And what he was talking about was the
karma the Bears had lost the night before. He thought
(03:52):
the karma of our fandom was going to be connected
to the Bears losing and now Indiana was going to lose.
We had a good fifty team minute conversation about is
the karma connected to us or is the karma connected
to the teams? And the way it finally came down.
I broke it down this way. The Bears they had
great karma this year, but they were not a team
(04:12):
of destiny. Their loss is not connected to our fandom
in Indiana's success or failure, because Indiana is better than karma.
They can outrun karma. They are not about this small
school that didn't do well, that doesn't have a football history.
Chris Signetti put all that aside. He said, this whole
(04:35):
narrative is rat poison. They are about the six seconds
that matter in the play and then what happens next,
and those players are not connected to each other. We
went through this whole thing. Our wives are having this
very intense conversation. This was our entire focus. We had
completely transitioned to putting ourselves in the mental mindset to
be at that game, to be fully committed to that game.
(04:58):
Thirteen hours later, we're in the car leaving the stadium
and I just go Matt he goes, Yeah, I go, Matt,
he goes, You're right, the karma was not connected. I
feel like anyone who is a sports fan, tell me
you can feel that, tell me you understand that, because
like my whole day was about like peak sports fan.
(05:21):
It was just freaking glorious.
Speaker 3 (05:25):
Yeah, I think all that stuff can matter to you,
but you know, doesn't really matter when when people praise
God the end of a football game. Was God really
reason they won that football game? But I think at
the end of the day, Kurt, then yes, yes, you
saw in that game the difference the right coach with
the right quarterback can make. Like I always say, and
(05:45):
that call on what was it fourth and two or
maybe it's fourth.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
And five, fourth and five?
Speaker 3 (05:51):
You know, it's like that, even if you said it
was a read, it was either gonna be a sneak
or like a quick pass. And I think he broke
it down where the defense was basically split and you
had to make a quick decision. You know, that was
we're playing to win. I'm not kicking the three here.
Either we get burned here, we get stopped, or we
were going for a touchdown. And you know, signetti talk
(06:14):
all the time, about how important coaching is, Like, I
just I can't believe it. You know, I'm gonna let
you basking it. I know you said, well, you already
turned down Penn State. There's no way he's going to
the NFL. I just can't get over how good of
a coach is and how there are nine opening jobs
right now, one of which could easily be filled by him.
But you know, if I'm an INDIANAFN, you know it's
(06:35):
gonna be tough to replace a quarterback, obviously, but if
he stays, it feels like this is just the beginning,
which is just crazy to think you guys becoming a
powerhouse in college football. But to go sixteen and zero,
to do that something we've never seen before. And you know,
in that game wasn't their best game, right, There's a
lot of things they did stop slopily, but all three aspects, right,
(06:56):
the defense showed up in the first half, the special
team showed up in the second half, and at the
end of the game when you needed the drive, you
needed the touchdown. You know, it's it's crazy. I can't
I still can't believe it, Chad. I'm honestly just like you,
I'm still in shock that the Indiana Hoosiers are the
first sixteen to oh team in college for plaedistry and
won the national titles. So, yeah, congrats to you, buddy,
And I'm just happy you went down there, because it's
(07:17):
you know, it's as a as a fan that has
been to a Super Bowl that his team lost and
I've never gone back. It's it's a huge risk, buddy.
I'm not gonna lie to you that that walk out
of the stadium isn't just a twenty minute walk to
your car, It's a five month walk through your life.
So I was so happy they won because the whole
time I was thinking, oh my god, poor Chad. Miami
(07:40):
has the ball, they're driving. It's on six points. They're
gonna get the touchdown here to win this game. And
like I said, the coaching matters. He took a random
time out let the defense reset led Beck in his
head say hey, I'm gonna take a deep shot here.
I'm gonna beat these guys in that time out and
threw a horrible pass in a double covered And yeah,
just again, I can't get over how great of a
(08:02):
coaching matermind it was. And Fernanda Mendoza your QB finally
dropped an F word. I was just so happy. I
was so happy you hear him drop that at the podium.
It's just I'm excited for Man again. It's gonna highly debated,
we'll talk about in the draft, but in that moment,
it's like, Man talk about being on the top of
the world, being your hometown team. Oh my god, they
(08:23):
rejected you. Life full circle. It was a beautiful moment.
Speaker 1 (08:27):
Listen, it's so funny that you mentioned that walk right
because we were sitting in that game and the oh god,
we were sitting in that game, and you know the
Hoosiers head first, we thought it was a first down
with just after the two minute time out, and then
they made it a second one. And then we're even
(08:48):
happier because we're like, okay, second one, Like they get
the first down and we're in great position. Miami has
to start using all this time out so they'll get
the ball back with sixteen seconds left and we'll to
kick a field goal and be up six, right, and
then that false start happens, and we immediately looked at
each other and we're like, we just lost the national championship.
(09:11):
Because everyone could see how it was going to play
out like they We're going to end up having like
one hundred and two seconds, and that's plenty of time
in college football if youre getting first downs. So yeah,
we were starting to envision that walk back. But like
you talk about investing in teams and going to the
(09:33):
games and taking that risk, you know, we spend so
much time rooting for these teams and like loving these
teams and loving investing our time and our energy in
these teams, and like every season ends in disappointment for
every fan except for one team. And I felt that
(09:54):
twenty four hours earlier with the Bears, And like, you know,
as we mentioned the last episode at as Matt Mitchell
reminded us, it's only through suffering that we feel most alive.
Speaker 3 (10:10):
But to one of the biggest losers is this would
be the Cardinals winning a two years from now, the
biggest joke loser franchise, just totally getting the head coach
and turn around. I literally I'm in shock. I can't
get over it.
Speaker 2 (10:24):
It is true.
Speaker 1 (10:25):
I called my younger son after the game leaving the stadium,
and like, was so caught up in my feelings. I
just told him, like I cannot wait for him to
have this kind of experience. I don't know when it's
going to happen. I don't know what it's going to
happen when he's in college. I don't it's gonna happen
when he'sut of college. Don't know it's gonna happen when
he's in his fifties.
Speaker 3 (10:42):
Like me.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
I want it for him so bad. I want him
to feel this in person. It is such a freaking high,
Like I haven't even felt like a functioning human being
for the past two weeks, between getting organized to go
to Atlanta, going to Atlanta that unbelievable experience, and then
turning around to decide and we're going to Miami without
even having tickets yet, and then hard Rock coming through
(11:04):
for us, which, by the way, in all seriousness, like
they crushed it. I was in Florida. I downloaded the
app and was online in the app in thirty seconds,
like this was a no joke, unbelievably good product. And
then I did go to the casino yesterday. A lot
of people probably saw the video that I posted. It
was bonkers. It was like being in Vegas. It was
(11:26):
glorious inside the casino in the sportsbook was rocking.
Speaker 2 (11:29):
So before we move on, are you are you? Is there? Parade?
Is how they do it? For the who'shreason?
Speaker 1 (11:34):
It's a good question. I don't know. I can't. I
can't go to the parade somewhere. I've got to get
back to life. And by the way, Kirkwood in Bloomington
last night was literally on fire. Like what you know,
my buddy Matt, the Poles, I didn't see them grease
and polls, but my buddy Matt, his kid is a
sophomore in Indiana. He was just sending videos to us
while we were in the car driving back, like of
(11:56):
all the video like the craziness that was happening at
the bars. It was people were camping out, like the
bars that I used to go to in college. People
that started camping out the night before to get in.
Speaker 2 (12:06):
And those are other colleges. They're probably like thirty forty
year olds.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
Dude. They were charging three thousand dollars for a table
to watch the championship game at some of the bars
of Bloomington last night.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
Now, you guys have a huge alumni. Man, It's it
is wild final thing.
Speaker 1 (12:19):
I'll said. There is just an argument that Indiana just
had the greatest college football season of all time, as
you mentioned, first team that's sixteen or oh since eighteen
ninety four, second best point differential of all time, had
the Heisman winner, top five defense, top five offense, beat
Iowa on the road, beat Oregon on the road, beat
Penn State on the road, beat the number one ranked
(12:44):
defending national champion Ohio State. Buck guys in the Big
Ten title game, as you pointed out, the only team
so far in the playoff era to win coming off
the buy, which shows you how good their coaching is.
And they dominated Alabama Oregon and then beat Miami in Miami,
and I would say it felt like a home game
for the Hoosiers, Like easily sixty five percent of the
(13:06):
stadium was Indiana. Like you could see the line Miami
maybe had from the fifty to like the back of
one end zone. Indiana had from the back of that
end zone all the way around to the other fifty.
It was remarkable how many Indiana fans are. It's just
(13:27):
just glorious. Meanwhile, just being slapped back to reality, Simon, Yeah,
one and four in the contest again last week. This
is our first one and four back to back weeks
in our history, bad beats, bad calls mixed together. Bad
calls by us, by the way, not refs. I'm no
Sean McDermot. I'm not complaining about the rest by bad
(13:50):
beats and bad calls did us in loss with Seattle,
San Francisco under forty five and a half, New England
Houston under forty and a half, San Francisco plus seven
and a half, the Rams minus four and a half,
one with New England minus three and a half. In
our nine week hard Rock Bet contest, we are now
fifty three and forty seven with two weeks left. Let's
(14:13):
look at the leaderboard. In our sharp Square Pro Football contest,
four entries are now tied at the top of twenty
five wins. The entry named Roe Pomo sits on top.
Matt Mitchell looked up their tiebreaker differentials. The top two
entries are separated by under one hundred yards, so it's
going to be a dog fight to the finish folks.
Speaker 2 (14:35):
Good luck.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
This is our Tuesday Conference Championship Round show. We're done
with Chat's choice for the season. We're basically done with
our named bets. But Simon, you do have a Simon says,
so we'll get to that. We have a brass balls.
We'll have our normal Tuesday Thursday shows through the end
of the season. We'll do our normal Sunday pre kickoff.
(14:59):
We will do our Sunday night show after ram Seahawks.
These will be our final Sunday episodes. As always, we
do not do Sunday episodes on Super Bowl Sunday. We'll
have the four regular episodes over those two weeks. Okay,
final order of business. This week's slate includes sides and
totals for the conference championship games if you are in
(15:22):
love with these games. As we teased, we've also added
player props, one per team, all hands selected by Matt Mitchell.
We'll mention each one as we get into the show.
And of course we can't start without a word from
our friend Matt Mitchell about the Buffalo Bills doing the
(15:42):
right thing and firing Sean McDermott. Matt, what do you
got to say here?
Speaker 4 (15:46):
I am surprised at how universally negative the reaction has been,
mostly from Bills fans because of the ascension of GM
Brandon Bean to basically president of football Operations in a
move reminiscent of Tom Donahoe's disastrous ten year as president
twenty five years ago. I shouldn't be surprised, because only
(16:08):
a loser fan base like ours could see a bad
thing happen and a really good thing happened and think
that no good things have happened. They don't seem to
remember Sean McDermott running, among a million other mistakes, a
fake punt with Zamar Hamlin with the season on the line.
I would have thrown him over Niagara Falls with my
own hands after that play, and he still got the
(16:31):
coach and kind of rehabbed his image a lot this
year with a pretty lousy roster.
Speaker 2 (16:35):
But I am not a.
Speaker 4 (16:37):
Disciple of the cult of very good. The Bills are
very good. They've been very good for six years. I
am happy to slide back into the depths to spin
the wheel and perhaps become a championship team. The fact
that the players liked him a lot. I couldn't imagine
something I care less about than the players liking the
coach if it's a non championship coach like the Eagles,
(17:00):
seem to absolutely hate their coach's guts, and he's made
it two super Bowls and he's one one. We have
teams like the Patriots win super Bowls, totally bottom out,
hire a coach, fire a coach, get a whole new quarterback,
and have already exceeded our own success in the time
it's taken us to try to get to a super Bowl.
So like it feels ludicrous to be too upset about this.
(17:23):
And the last thing I'll say is, I'm seeing some
of the Bills mafia leadership selling a mug that says
Buffalo versus the refs, maybe one of the biggest loser
pieces of such a If everyone listening to this, if
you see me drinking out of that mug, it's because
it contains the elixir that will end my life. That's
(17:45):
the only excuse for drinking out of something like that.
If you're a Buffalo Bills fan, Guys, we got it.
We got to get our heads right and start worrying
about things that matter, like one championship before we all die.
Speaker 1 (17:56):
Thank you, Chip, Thank you Mad From the high to
the low. Let's get into it. New England at Denver,
this game at hard Rock Bet. I looked it up
this morning on the hard rock bed app Denver plus
five and a half the total is forty two. Look,
obviously the story here is Jared Stidham starting for bon Nix.
(18:20):
Line hasn't really budged since Sunday night. There's actually one
five out there, and there's there are a couple of
totals at forty one and a half. Salmon, I want
to ask you, like I thought if Bonix was starting
this line one and a half for two, you know,
a seven point swing, what do you think?
Speaker 2 (18:40):
Simon says, give me the Denver Broncos. I want to
play a game.
Speaker 1 (18:45):
Simon says, I.
Speaker 3 (18:47):
Might be putting my life savings on this Broncos team
with this number. Chat, this is how egregious this line
movement is in Wow. Yeah, it's it's too much, way
too much. As much respect as I'm giving to bon Nicks,
I do think.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
He is a reason they are where they're at. He's
been great this year.
Speaker 3 (19:02):
But I had them at a minus three and a
half point favorite, the Broncos over New England. We even
with their injuries to the wide receiver position. You're you're
telling me bow Nicks is worth eight nine points.
Speaker 2 (19:15):
It's not. It's impossible.
Speaker 3 (19:17):
This is just simply public overreacting investing way too much
money into just a horrible number. And you know, right
away when I saw this matchup, it's like, Okay, we'll
see you know. Can I just be patient because I
didn't want to say anything Sunday night. I knew right
away I'm gonna be hamming this one. I remember you
had something about Stidham and like I was messing with you,
(19:38):
but it was really like, okay, can this get the six?
And we just literally I was gonna put an obscene
amount of money on this if it ever got the six.
Speaker 2 (19:46):
So I still might.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
I'm just grabbing the five at f now because there's
no way that professionals don't come in and just hammer
this line.
Speaker 1 (19:52):
Yeah, I mean we've seen it start to go down.
Speaker 2 (19:54):
Me and Chat talked a little bit about it.
Speaker 3 (19:56):
Is much praise I gave Drake May ready through three touchdowns,
it wasn't impressive. Their offense could not do anything against
that Houston defense. Now, do I think Denver's defense is
as good as Houston?
Speaker 2 (20:06):
No, I do not. I do think they can get
after a quarterback.
Speaker 3 (20:09):
And what have we seen so far early in Drake
May's career here chat against good defenses, seems like he
struggles to protect.
Speaker 2 (20:16):
The ball, and let's just run through it again.
Speaker 3 (20:18):
It's gonna be a non biased stat two games Drake May,
he's taken ten sacks. Ten sacks again, that's yeah, that's
good defenses. He's fumbled six times, Chad, not just many fumbles,
six fumbles, and he's throwing two picks like he's just
he struggled to exactly what we thought he would struggle
(20:38):
right against good defenses. My whole view of that was just,
you know, last week, I thought that was a really
tough spot for Houston to walk into.
Speaker 2 (20:46):
I did not I had no idea. Cesn't have to
tip a meltdown. But that's what really saved Drake May.
Speaker 3 (20:50):
Right, New England fans, they should be happy, right their quarterback,
this this new toy. He did throw those three touchdowns
despite all those bad turnovers and how slotpy he played,
he showed up in the red zone.
Speaker 2 (21:01):
So I get why they're so excited.
Speaker 3 (21:03):
The public though, to come in with the Patriots fans
on this one and overreact totally to that game, and
I mean they've left the Broncos for dead, totally left
for dead. Just yeah, the media is talking about it
and it's another play where we don't have to take
the Broncos money line.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
If you I am obviously gonna bet it.
Speaker 3 (21:19):
It's the move here is simply taking the Broncos at
thirt you know, thirteen to one for the Super Bowl.
That's what they're at in a lot of books, like again,
they're deader than dead. They're thirteen to one and all
if they would he was winning two games. You will
never see these odds again ever in the rest of
your life because this is so unique. We've never had
a conference champion teap team. I think they've been a three.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
Point dog before over three points, never in my lifetime.
And I looked Evan Adams, It's never happened before. So
this is totally unique.
Speaker 3 (21:48):
And you know, I'm about to hit people over the
head with thousands of stats because that's you know, I
want something to back it up here. But just strictly
being a better here, people, you have to understand this
is said that you need to blindly make always like
when you see this type of number with a backup quarterback, Yes,
if this was a backup quarterback who was their first
year in the NFL, I wouldn't be as confident about this.
(22:10):
We talked about he's played games, right, I know he's
won in three his career, but he's played in games
he's faced NFL competition. Now, I know this is the
first playoff start, which is an ideal, but it's like, Okay,
this is the guy that's been in Champaign's offense now
for two years. You expect him to be comfortable enough
to make plays against the Patri's defense that yes, they
are good, right, They've had good turnovers these last two games.
(22:32):
I really think the Chargers and Houston they are both
in my rankings and the bottom thirty of offensive lines
Denver Broncos number two. This is night and day between
what you can do scheme wise, and you know, New
England's defense looked like world beaters.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
I mean, let's be honest here, they've had a lot
of help.
Speaker 3 (22:53):
With the weather and the I mean just pissport quarterback play,
which once again, you can say it's all about the defense,
but come on, CJ was so bad in that game
you can't just simply say that was defensive place.
Speaker 2 (23:03):
So Chad's gonna love this one.
Speaker 3 (23:06):
We got burned earlier in the playoffs fading the Carolina
Panthers at a nine point dog at home if the
line closes at anything above three and a half for
this Broncos team, or four, I should say, in the
last fifty years in the playoffs, dogs of four points
are more at home in the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (23:23):
I don know.
Speaker 3 (23:24):
Against the spread, they just don't lose. So we've seen
it right. The public has overreacted. This number opened at
three three and a half, immediately, got seemed to four,
immediately got seem to four and a half.
Speaker 2 (23:36):
Now it's at five and a half at a couple
of different books.
Speaker 3 (23:38):
So you know, I again, I'm trying to be patient here,
but every book maker I know is gonna be calling
me up begging me to bet Broncos for him, because
it's just going to be all Patriots money.
Speaker 2 (23:48):
They're just gonna be hammering it. And you know, I
usually go and roll over my tickets.
Speaker 3 (23:53):
I've just been letting my Patriots money sit out there
because I'm gonna go those books and just take all
that money roll it over in this process team that's
and this is probably my biggest bet of the playoffs.
I thought Newland was going to be I just cannot
believe this number is growing to five and a half
chat Wow at this point.
Speaker 1 (24:07):
Well, listen, I'm inspired, and I was with you. It
just seemed like too much of an overreaction. The evidence
we need lies in a man named Nick Foles, who
had a glorious tweet supporting the Broncos and their fans
(24:28):
about what is possible when a backup comes in. Obviously
he had a little bit more of a run at
the end of that Eagle season, which you're aware of,
but they still went through the playoffs as pretty big underdogs.
And I remember this very clearly. We had just launch
action in January of twenty eighteen in the middle of
(24:49):
those playoffs, and we rode the Eagles all the way
through the Super Bowl saying take the Eagles at five
and a half. Take the Eagles at five and a half.
So it's Jared Stadem. We have no idea, but it's
a pretty good example of what can happen. He has
been an NFL quarterback. And don't forget Jared's Didham thought
he was good enough that when they drafted bo Nicks
(25:11):
and immediately named him the starter, he was really pissed,
Like he is not a guy who's thinking I'm coming
in and I'm going to be a placeholder like maybe
say Ben Denucci, who was analyzing the game, I think
for ESPN and then tweeted about the Broncos and then
all of a sudden, now he's a backup for the
(25:32):
Broncos playing in the AFC title game. Like you're seeing
Matt Mitchell if you're watching the video on YouTube, he's
throwing up the tweets from Nick Foles and Ben Denucci.
But wow, what a game. I'm with you one hundred percent.
Are we are totally aligned?
Speaker 3 (25:47):
And people ask you, is there is he even worth
betting the Super Bowl future? Because again, I love the
number enough that's gonna be my biggest But obviously it's
really just about Champayne. Champagne is actually really good as
a dog in his career. He's twelve and ten straight
up when he's listened at a home underdog in any
game in his life. So basically, if you've bet one
hundred bucks since he started being a home dog, you'll
(26:08):
be up seven hundred and forty four dollars. I mean,
even this season, he's two and zero straight up as
a home dog. He beat the Packers and the Chiefs.
Thank you, Evan abramsl was a great, great pulling. You know,
just looking at all these matchups, it's like, Okay, there
has to be some negatives, right, and there is right.
The first one that jumped out to me was, okay,
(26:28):
what the Broncos did just play an overtime game, which
again we're gonna get to the Rams game obviously, but
the status can jump right away is well. One we
always talk about it's really tough to play playoff games
and when you add in the overtime just to wear
and tear that is that extra quarter on guy's bodies.
You hear expayers talk about it. It's brutal because you've
(26:49):
already played eighteen nineteen weeks of football. Now you're playing
an extra quarter on top of that another game, and
it just adds up because it's usually short week for
some of these teams.
Speaker 2 (26:59):
Right. Luckily for this Brockers team, they did play on
the Saturday. But I'll just go to the steat anyway.
Speaker 3 (27:04):
Since twenty fifteen teams off of bye I mean off
an overtime game facing teams that did not play an
overtime game, they are ten and eighteen straight up, eleven
and seventeen against the spread. So you know, plays into
what people think here, which is it's really tough to
play after a playoff game.
Speaker 2 (27:22):
Another amazing staff from m Arams.
Speaker 3 (27:24):
In the playoffs, when a team wins a playoff game
and now they're in the next round of a playoff game,
they're zero to five straight up one and four. I
guess it's spread since twenty fifteen, losing by fifteen points
per game. So I'm not saying it's it's not gonna
beet uphill battle right both these teams.
Speaker 1 (27:40):
Oh wait, what's the context for that stat you just gave.
I feel like I didn't hear it.
Speaker 3 (27:45):
The context is if you play an overtime game, then
you have another playoff game the next game.
Speaker 1 (27:49):
Got it.
Speaker 3 (27:49):
The historical fact is our zero to five straight up
in one and four since twenty fifteen. And you know,
if you want to go back even further, which I
think luckily Evan did thousand since two thousand and two,
teams are just six and thirteen straight up in the
playoffs in this exact spot. So it's really hard. It's
really hard to really get that far up on Denver.
That's why it's like, don't you don't have to take
(28:10):
the money line. The straight up number is so tough.
Just just take that future on the Super Bowl future
at thirteen to one. But to me, the number that's
the key here. I'm really wanting to get people hammering
this five and a half number. I think that's that's
the key is the Patriots could win, right, Drake may
has been perfect this season, has not lost the road
game this year.
Speaker 2 (28:28):
He's eight.
Speaker 3 (28:28):
No, straight up, can they steal it White get a
field at the end of the game. Neither of us
would be shocked. But to me, that's where we talk
about the lines move too much. Three and a half
is right for this game. Five and a half. You're
getting two free points here. And I again, I can't
tell you how excited I was to see this one.
So yeah, this is I love Bennett. And then as
soon as I saw those trends from Evan which I
(28:49):
gave out the top of the show, that plus four
dog nine to zero last fifty years, It's like, oh
my god, this is just lining up. The public is
going to get absolutely crushed on this one because there
were just going to keep hitting this Patriots. Yes, I'm
giving out time, it says, just in case the pros
you come in and bet this down below four, but
you know five and a half that just feels a
good gift.
Speaker 1 (29:09):
Do we have opinion on the total? Forty two at
hard Rock, forty one and a half other places, you know,
the Broncos had a little The Broncos were ten and
eight to the end of this year. They had a
stretch where they were just giving up loads of points
in the fourth quarter. And it's one of the reasons
why we liked, ultimately like the over after some back
and forth waffling this past weekend, because they do give
(29:32):
up points in the fourth quarter when they have those moments.
I feel like that's not likely to happen in this game.
The Patriots were what were they hold on? Twelve and
seven to the under. One of those unders was the
last game of the season against the Chargers when no
(29:53):
one was playing for the Chargers. So do we have
a feeling on the under here?
Speaker 2 (29:57):
Yeah, I'm honestly thinking towards the over. I'll be patient.
Speaker 3 (30:00):
Another thing where I'm not going to rush to bet
it here on a Tuesday for a Sunday game and
an atmosphere or Denver that we have no idea that
what the weather could be. I mean, I don't a
huge chat, but people are going crazy. I might look
like we might get the once in a lifetime blizzard
on Sunday. So I don't know how that affects the
rest of the country on Saturday or Sunday or what's
gonna be going on in Colorado obviously, But for this one,
(30:22):
it's just like I said last week. If if they
show Denver and you see it's sunny, thirty five degrees
out with barely any wind.
Speaker 2 (30:29):
You play the over like it's just whatever that is.
Speaker 3 (30:32):
It's usually a track meet in Denver when it's it's nice,
cool player like that, and both these quarterbacks I think
could turn the Bowl over. Like watching Sedem's tape, he
does make great throws, high risk type of thrower. He
will try to take that risky play. We'll see if
Champayne beat that out of him these.
Speaker 2 (30:49):
Last two years.
Speaker 3 (30:50):
But a lot of these guys are what they are,
and as as good as I think he is as
a downfield thrower, he does like to take high risks.
So I already gave you those Drake maystats. He's been
highly turnover prone. Now going up against once again a
really good defensive line the flip side, you know, instead
of his first star. We've seen New England be really
great at turning teams over right now, you expect a
lot of short fields, so you know, to me, early
(31:12):
bets I see coming on the over I could see
professionals coming on the over here, but I could see
the public shooting towards the owner just because they're like, well,
backup quarterback two. Good defense to be low scoring, but yeah, Mari,
now makelnation is going to go the other way.
Speaker 2 (31:26):
Could be a high sporting type of game.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
Well, look, we wanted to mention a couple of player
props from this game. You just mentioned turnover, Jared Stadham interceptions.
We don't have to give an opinion on this yet.
His over owner is going to be set at half.
Drake May passing touchdowns, the over owner is going to
be set at one and a half in the contest.
(31:48):
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New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. The next game NFC Country's
Title Game Rams at Seahawks. The numbers two and a half,
(33:33):
the totals forty seven and a half. Pretty much locked
in at two and a half since Sunday night. A
little bit of money coming in at hard Rock because
it's at minus one twenty two and a half minus
one twenty, so we're seeing money coming in on the Seahawks. Simon,
We've got a couple of interesting comps here, and I
want to run through sort of the circumstances for each
(33:53):
of the games that these two teams have played, they
split the division series. So this is the third time
to play in this year. I really want to bet
the Rams, and I feel like I'm visualizing and imagining
the Rams at their peak, and too often this year
(34:14):
the Rams have brain farts, like they have these moments
where Matthew Stafford is missing and Sean McVay is playing
either conservatively or not aggressive enough for making bad play calls.
He've admitted he wasn't making great calls on on Sunday night.
Anyone who watched that game saw they dominated when they
(34:34):
ran the ball, they struggled when they were trying to
pass the ball, and he could not get his team
to commit to the run. So am I wrong for
wanting to commit to the Rams? Here?
Speaker 2 (34:47):
Simon says, Now, I I'm with you.
Speaker 1 (34:50):
I'm like I'm says presented by Hard Run.
Speaker 3 (34:53):
Back Emilia was gonna absolutely hammer the s Yhawks team
just because the like you've said, the bar is just
set so high. I think you're at the same level
as me where I've set the bar so high that
it's tough for them to even live up to that bar.
And every week they've kind of fallen short of that bar. Yeah,
you know they're Also, this is the first time ever
(35:16):
a team has not covered in the wild card round,
the divisional round and are still alive here in the
in the conference championship.
Speaker 2 (35:26):
So this rams team.
Speaker 3 (35:28):
As much grief as you want to get them, it's
it's hard to want to go against them because they've
just they figure out a way, they find a way
to win these games. And the regular season they kept
finding ways to blow games. So I'll give them respect.
Like that Panthers game, easy could have lost that game.
Your Bears game, they tried, I my god, did they try?
They give Caleb the chance to end them at the.
Speaker 1 (35:50):
End there, Oh my god, did I try?
Speaker 2 (35:53):
The defense found a way to get the turnover.
Speaker 1 (35:54):
So it's just going to pass by my TikTok trend
shout out. Okay, that's fine.
Speaker 2 (35:59):
I don't. I don't. I'm and I'm a grown man.
I don't have TikTok. I'm sorry, buddy.
Speaker 1 (36:02):
Well, all I've done for the past twelve hours is
watch Indiana TikTok practically in tears when like they've got
Fernando Mendoza's touchdown run set to like a prayer from Madonna.
And at the end you see his mom in the
wheelchair like crying hysterically, and the dad who won't stand
in cheer out of respect, not being able to stand
(36:22):
in cheer, and They're hugging and crying, and then I'm crying.
And then I send it to my friends. I send
it to Andy and Matt and I'm like, you, guys
are not going to be able to not cry at
the end of this. So yeah, I have TikTok because
it keeps me engaged with my community.
Speaker 3 (36:36):
I got cold in my heart every time they showed
her with does I think they had the kids miked
up for the game cheed? Obviously you missed it because
you were there, And I was just like, my god, yes,
they told you. I hate the collegeway college football.
Speaker 2 (36:48):
Does.
Speaker 3 (36:48):
We're like Gus Johnson thing that kid was living in
a car last week. Now I scoring a touchdown and
they always have to try to make you cry.
Speaker 2 (36:56):
I hate it. They always try to get you in college.
Speaker 1 (36:58):
Well, listen, I put you on a bad path. I
apolog Jazz. Were you were about to tell me why
we're not betting the Rams, which even though I want
to when.
Speaker 3 (37:06):
I'm right there with you when you said that. That
was my initial thought to you, because it's I think
you're the same thought as me. It's that same as
the Broncos. Who is not going to be hammering the Seahawks.
Who's betting the Rams? Nobody? Like I said, they've not
covered now last two weeks, they haven't looked right in
I don't know, eight weeks, like you said, they they
they kind of putter it out here at the end
(37:28):
and it's like, well, they've had a brutal run. This
will be their fourth straight road game, Like that's just
I know Arizona shouldn't count because it was before the playoffs,
but it's like, that's still a road game. They still
had to go on the road. That's nothing to poop
poo about. Like that's that's really hard. Like I said,
after eighteen games already, you know, eighteen weeks, I should say.
(37:49):
And now they have another three straight road games and
this one, you know, just again, let's just go off
the lazy stats. An extra day of rest, could that
even matter that much? Shed Yes, that's what I'm trying
to beat into people's heads here, how worn out all
these players are. Just an extra day of rest or
a wretch a rest advantage team in the conference championship
(38:09):
twenty seven and seventeen straight up if the team's at
home with the rest of advantage twenty one and seven,
So that twenty one and seven straight up.
Speaker 2 (38:18):
So that goes for the Seahawks in Denver.
Speaker 3 (38:20):
Like both of them already at an advantage just being
at home in this exact spot. And you know, the
more I try to go into it, the more I'm
trying to find the reasons to bet this Rams team.
It just can we talk about the injuries, right they
might be down their number one and number two quarterbacks,
which I don't know if Sam Donald can exploit, but
I definitely saw it.
Speaker 2 (38:41):
The way the Bears exploited it was they could not tackle.
Speaker 3 (38:44):
I think they had twenty broken tackles in that game
against the Rams, which is by far the most the
Rams have given up all season. Like, that's just not
the type of defense they run. Usually, they're very well coached,
well tackled team. What you've seen when these backup cornerbacks
are coming in, you know, they don't want to lay
the thump on these running backs right there, their cover corners.
There's a reason they're not starters, not not only because
(39:06):
it's not great at covering, but sometimes not great tacklers.
I mean, how many times did your running backs break tackles?
And now you know, obviously huge blow to the lost Charbonne, which, yeah,
if you haven't been found with the Seahawks this year,
I know you might look at the statue like, well,
he's not been that impressive. He has this rare ability
to find the end zone in the in the red zone,
like he just always would fund the end zone. And
(39:26):
that was the big reason they've used this so much
down there was those tough yards you'd always fight through.
It was just a different style of running. And you know,
now they're down to still a great running back, but
it was a big deal, right, they had a two
headed horse that they've leaned on these last couple of weeks.
I mean Stafford that Stafford Donald's probably thrown for three
hundred yards in ten weeks. Like they've just totally leaned
(39:47):
into the run game and this defense then the season here.
Speaker 2 (39:50):
And it's carried them.
Speaker 3 (39:51):
So looking at this matchup, you know, as bad as
Darnald's injury as I think what we talk we talked
about last week, I think get twelve completions were and
seventeen past the ten they were able to hide it
right that that that game toldly went their way. This
game they won't be able to But it's another week
of rest on that oblique like, I think that is
gonna help him. And obviously, you know, I think Shane
Han sold him out, like talking about him getting shot up.
(40:13):
They'll do the same thing here, right, They'll shoot him up.
He won't be able to field it anyway. And you
know all these numbers I keep going through with this
RAMS team, Can they win this game? Yes, we've talked
about they've it's really hard in your division playing the
same team three times, and you know this this is
gonna be the toughest matchup of the Sawks of face.
But I feel like it's too much Overcumchad, all the
(40:36):
road games, all the injuries. It's just eventually gotta pop
up on this RAMS team. So I'm interesting what the
pros are gonna do with this number, Like I already
know the pros are gonna be with Mother Broncos I
really am to see what they're gonna do with this one,
because to me, you saw ten, maybe eleven of the
twenty books here in Jersey hit three and then some
(40:56):
group came in and hammered the Rams because every book
went right back to two and a half. So I
can't wait to find out more by the time we
get the Thursday show, what's going to that one?
Speaker 2 (41:04):
But right away I know it's it's boring, it's shockey.
But I like both the home teams.
Speaker 3 (41:09):
I like the Broncos, like the Seahawks, especially Seahawks at
two and a half. But I'm just being pated on
this one because it's if there's that much resistance of three,
maybe we get back to the one and a half,
which is what this number opened up with the Seahawks.
Speaker 2 (41:21):
So it's a number ernother number.
Speaker 3 (41:22):
I'm gonna patron on see if it does come down,
and see what the professionals doing this one. But I mean,
everyone's gonna see these trends I've talked about. Everyone's gonna
see these trends against the Rams. It's just it's a brutal,
brutal schedule for them to overcome and talk about the NFL.
I know they don't care, they're just trying to get
the TV product, but to have the Rams play Sunday
night and then an overtime game.
Speaker 2 (41:45):
I mean, that's just so brutal.
Speaker 3 (41:46):
Now they have to go on the road and play
a Seahawks team that basically rested all their starters in
the fourth quarter, so they haven't really played a full
four quarters in three weeks. It's just it feels like
it's too much Chad. So yeah, it's people can see.
I really love this one.
Speaker 2 (42:00):
I really, I really am interested whe the number goes.
Speaker 1 (42:03):
Look there's a lot of comps from those two games
where the Rams really did. I'll play them in a significant,
significant way. I'm with you, though, It's why I haven't
pulled the trigger like I want to be on the Rams.
But part of me was waiting to see if we
can get to a solid three. And also part of
(42:26):
me feels like it's a little bit off because I'm
imagining something that might not be there in a consistent way.
So I appreciate you talking me down a little bit here.
Speaker 3 (42:34):
I have not give a staff from Evan just just
talking about these road teams. So it's a third consecutive
road game in the playoffs. So teams in this exact spot,
this in the regular shoes, even the playoffs, they're forty
eight and seventy nine straight up, so thirty seven percent,
which is what you're looking at success rate or win rate.
Speaker 2 (42:56):
For the Rams here.
Speaker 3 (42:58):
When the team is lists un dog, which is what
the Rams are, they are twenty two and sixty seven
straight up, so even worse, twenty four percent. When we're
in the playoffs, it's the third straight road game in
the playoffs, those teams twelve and thirty straight up, so
twenty eight percent. That is nine and twenty eight straight up,
(43:19):
so twenty four percent. When their list is an underdog,
like it's just you blind the guy to bet the
Seahawks here, Like it's just all the numbers back up
exactly where're talking about the rest is arities too much.
And you know, I think, Chatty, you nail at the
top where I think it's because I'm the same way
where I had the ramp power rate it so high
coming into the I think that was week twelve or
week thirteen right.
Speaker 2 (43:37):
Now, way I love everyone else, it's really come way
back down.
Speaker 3 (43:41):
And after last week with the Seahawks and that performance
for their defense, I did bump them up to be
the number one team, right and it reflected I think
the books have them as maybe is a plus one
hundred a plus one ten super Bowl favorite right now,
which makes total sense. Like, of all the teams left,
they are by far the most complete team despite all
the questions of the quarterback position. So yeah, it's crazy
to think I'm talking about a Stenham versus Darnold super
(44:05):
Bowl here, but I think that's where we're looking at here.
Speaker 1 (44:07):
Brother, all right, we'll get more into the total. I
want to dig in a little bit more on the
comps from those two games and see if anything sort
of moves us aggressively.
Speaker 3 (44:19):
Under Again, you said we'll talk more about it. I
just like the mother total. I have no early play
here in the week. I just I've been both sides
early here. But on the total, for me, I'm not
rushing about it.
Speaker 1 (44:28):
The player prop Jackson Smith and Jigma total touchdowns over
under a half. Matthew's staff for the longest completion will
be over under thirty nine and a half. Those will
be in the contest. Listen, we got three games left
in the season. Indiana University are the national champions in
(44:52):
college football. It has been a wild January. I got
to get back to a little bit of a normal life.
Appreciate everyone coming along for the ride. I appreciate Hard
rough Bet hooking me up with some Ducats for a glorious,
glorious experience here in Miami. This has been Sharper Square,
(45:13):
part of the Volume podcast Network. We will be back
on Thursday. We'll nail down the picks. We'll get to
some brass ball, so much more. Watch or listen on
youtubeer Sharper Square. Like the video, subscribe to the channel,
download us some Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods.
Rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want.
Feedback is a gift until next time. Love you.
Speaker 2 (45:36):
The road to the super Bowl is like a mythic quest.
It's a demanding journey, an adventure that creates heroes.
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
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