July 7, 2026 • 49 mins
With NFL Training Camps opening later this month, hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter make their early NFL playoff bets in this episode sponsored by ZBiotics. Go to https://zbiotics.com/SHARPORSQUARE and use SHARPORSQUARE at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.
Every year, teams burst onto the scene. Last season it was the upstart New England Patriots led by Drake Maye. But are they set up to fail this season? What about Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals? Are the Cleveland Browns circling the drain after trading Myles Garrett, or could they surprise in the AFC? Plus, our guys take a long look at NFC contenders like the Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Rams, and Seattle Seahawks, plus contenders-in-waiting like Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders. #Volume
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet. We
are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the
betting show that makes the squares. Sharper makes the wise
guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I am joined
as I am for every show by my co host,
my bff, my companion, mikeel Padre professional Better Simon Hunter
(00:22):
Eto Simon Chad.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
As we turn this page after our brutal World Cup
loss last night, thank god for only what four weeks
away from our first preseason the game, I think Adam
Schefter tweeted, so it did what it needed to do.
It killed us a month of time and we only
have to make another month work until we have some.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
Look, it's been amazing and like, I really love the
collective experience that everyone's been sharing with the World Cup.
It's been so much fun to watch such a brutal
loss last night. Bad bad mistakes, you know what I
love about it. I don't know if you can see this, Simon.
I know you're wearing World Cup paraphernalia. I right now
(01:03):
am wearing a Tottenham Hotspur T shirt and I'm going
to tell you why I'm wearing that, Because I was
with my family, my sister and her family and my
wife and our two boys went away for a few
days and me and my two guys were hanging out
and we were all talking about the World Cup. And
(01:23):
you know, my younger son is a huge sports fan.
My other son has never been a sports fan, but
he's gotten really into the World Cup. Even before he
was like, I feel like, I love soccer. I want
to know more about the World Cups. We've been talking
about it for a while. And then we were all
hanging out while we were away and they were both like,
I wish we had a way to engage with soccer,
(01:46):
like a soccer team to root for all year long.
And we settled on you know, EPL and we decided
these were the criteria. You can tell me what you
think of this. We decided we had to go with
a team in London because if we visit London, we
want to be able to go watch the game. We
decided we didn't want to do like you know, Arsenal
or Chelsea, because we want to root for teams that
(02:08):
like our bandwagon teams. That's like rooting for the Cowboys
in the US. We wanted a team that was a
lot like rooting for the Cubs or the Bears. And
so we settled on Tottenham Hotspur and I've gone through
the history. I love the history. I love that hot
Spur is the name of a knight from Shakespeare. I
(02:31):
love that it was started by schoolboys hanging out together.
I love that they go up and down, up and down.
But they're kind of hard luck losers. So I'm all in.
We're all in, Go Spurs go.
Speaker 3 (02:47):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
I would say that's a pretty American team, the Spurs,
So I would say you're very on brand most Americans that.
Speaker 3 (02:54):
Yeah, I know. It's it's it's.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
Kind of funny where Americans, for some reason gravitate towards
the Spurs.
Speaker 3 (02:59):
I don't know if it's further Jerseys or whatever.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
That's so interesting.
Speaker 2 (03:03):
For a second ear they say west Ham, which was
gonna get me really fired up. That's a true no
one knows underground, great London club. But yeah, like you
can't go wrong my Like we talked about this World Cup,
honestly has been a dream as a fan. I wanted
the Americans to be engaged. They're heavily engaged. I mean,
Seeen Coward do forty minutes on soccer insane. I don't
(03:27):
know if how long people followed Calrot's career, but you
would have told Coward ten years ago he would spend
forty minutes breaking out never never, never never.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
So this is what I want.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
This has been my dream, and I talked about it.
It's a culture thing, right, America. You just got the
You just got the crappy smack Daddy by Belgium. That
was the worst game we could possibly play. I wouldn't
be so upset overrated.
Speaker 3 (03:50):
It just it happens.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
Right, We're playing against a team that has players who
played in these big games before. You will say it
doesn't have that. That's part of the growing process, part
of building the culture. But yeah, aways tell Americans the
biggest thing America is missing is we don't have our
Messa yet. We don't have our Harry Kane. We need
a striker, a top that has this god given ability
to score.
Speaker 3 (04:10):
And you've seen it.
Speaker 2 (04:11):
There's four or five guys in this World Cup that
when they have that ball, it just feels like they're
gonna score. We've never experienced that as a country. So
that's I don't know if it's twenty years away now,
if it's ten years away. Maybe it's the next World
Cup chat, but that's what we need as a country
to move forward right this round of sixteen. Buffer We're
gonna keep hitting it. Even if we won this game
against Belgium, who is our next round against Spain.
Speaker 3 (04:32):
So it's it's a tough. It's tough right now.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
But as a fan seeing American embrace it, see the
country embrace the World Cup, it's fun as a gambler,
a ton to bet on. And yeah, it's like you said,
it's just such heartbreak. I'm still not over it. Like
even last night I could barely sleep. Or it's like
I thought we were gonna win. I really thought, honestly
we're gonna beat Belgium. So it's gonna take me a
little bit. But like right now, pulse like Christian Poulsik,
(04:55):
I'm so bitter. I'm just really bitter. I don't want
to say too much mean stuff and I'm trying to
positive about it, but they just laid down like a
dead dog in that game. I'm so mad about how
they played and how it all worked out. But thank
god we have football to talk about.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
Brother. You mentioned Harry Kaye, former Tottenham hospital legend, legend.
Harry Kay, Harry Kay. We do have football to talk about.
We are going to talk about soccer. Next week We're
going to have du Bundo back on to talk some soccer.
We're also going to have Shonzailla to talk about mid
season baseball. But this week today we are talking about
(05:34):
some really cool NFL early prediction markets we can lean into.
I don't mean prediction markets, I mean markets that hard
Rock bat has up right now, especially some playoff markets
that we're going to give out some of our favorites
on today. We have no episode on Thursday. Everyone's taking
a little bit of a break. Next week. Like I mentioned,
(05:56):
we have Zarillo, we have Da Bundo. After that, folks,
all football, all the time, beginning of football beginning July
twenty first, Ben Solac from ESPN. I love the guy,
you guys. Last year I mentioned his stuff on the
show all the time, so I'm excited that he's going
to be coming on the twenty first. Then it's our
(06:17):
top ten QBS episode. Then we'll go into our division
by division preview episodes. Get freaking ready because the other
football leaves and this football comes in. Like I said,
Harder Rock has a ton of markets out right now,
super Bowl Conference, in division futures. Obviously they got win totals.
(06:40):
You can bet on every team's stage of elimination, you
can bet on divisional finishing positions, exact order props, all that. So, Simon,
we don't have to be that organized here. Why don't
you kick it off? Before we jumped on the show,
(07:02):
you had some ideas, So what are some things you're
thinking about? I know you mentioned the Bears. Do you
want to start with the Bears? I don't know if
you were just trying to sort of, you know, speak
to my passions, or was the Bears a real thing?
Or what do you want to start here?
Speaker 2 (07:19):
Well, let's start with the easiest secor exercise, which is
every year we look at last year's playoff teams. That
should always be your baseline, right, this is what the
league is. There's a lot of turnover, there's a lot
of who's out exactly who's in, who's out. It's very dumb,
It sounds very basic, but we have the data. Every
year three to four teams from the previous year won't
(07:39):
make it. If you would have told me and Chad
last year, the Chiefs can be one of those three
or four teams, I would have been shocked. I think
Chad would have been shocked. So that's the best part
about doing this is like you really don't know. Like
telling me the Chiefs, the Bills, and the Ravens weren't
going to win their divisions last year, I would have
been pretty shocked.
Speaker 3 (07:55):
None of them won their divisions.
Speaker 2 (07:56):
So just going back last year the one Seeds, if
you remember the go in the Seattle, I don't know
about you. Do you think both of them are gonna
make it? I think both of them are gonna playoffs, right,
I do.
Speaker 1 (08:06):
But I will tell you this, I don't have a
great feeling about the Patriots. I would not be Like
I'm a big believer in schedule and I'm a big
believer in the challenges of a new schedule. It's why
when we talk about the Bears, I'm not that high
in the Bears going into this season. I think Minnesota's
(08:27):
gonna be better. I think Detroit's going to be better.
I think Green Bay is going to be better. I
think they've got a challenging schedule. I think the same
thing about the Patriots, Like obviously they got to contend
with the Bills, but they're gonna have a much harder
schedule this year. If we're talking right off the top,
would I would like the Patriots. I got to find their.
Speaker 3 (08:47):
Odds here the miss playoffs.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
I would not be uncomfortable taking a little taste of
the Patriots of plus one fifty.
Speaker 3 (08:55):
And that's why we're doing this exercise people.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
So yeah, the Patriots a two seat from last year,
so you have them out and just let's just finish
the AFC. The Steelers, I think we both agree. If
we're gonna kick someone out, it's guy. Yes, yes, they're
they're they're at the back end. Chargers, Jaguars, you want
to kick either of them out yet?
Speaker 3 (09:13):
Or no? Right, a little tougher on those two, so
we'll keep a moving.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
Yeah, the space going the NFC also felt tough. It
felt like the Bears and the Panthers are the really
two ones that jump out right away. Yeah, teams you
can easily see missing the playoffs. Now, Packers, you know
they could, Eagles, they could, right, but just right away
in the first two I looked at was Panthers, and obviously,
you know we love the Bears.
Speaker 3 (09:41):
That's what I want to start with.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
You chat with your Bears, they're plus one oh five,
which again that's the book telling you this is one
of the teams on the outside looking in because what
you just talked about, the everything broke their way. They
got the two seed where you at chat plus one
oh five to make the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (09:57):
I would be betting against the Bears to make the playoffs.
I am not high on the Bears. Look, I was
just in Chicago. Unfortunately a close friend his father passed away,
and so I was in Chicago and this guy, everyone
who listens to the show knows, my buddy, Matt. His
father passed away, and I grew up going to Bears
(10:19):
games with Matt and his family because they had season
tickets to the Bears for the entirety of my life,
and so I went to every home game when I
was growing up, all through high school with Matt and
his mom and dad, and his dad was such a
rabid Bears fan that it was a constant conversation. I know,
(10:43):
Matt and his dad and one of his three kids,
who was a massive Bears fan. They would text about
the games all the time, and so I had a
lot of Bears talk. This weekend. At one point when
his Matt's oldest kid was eulogizing his grandfather. He started
talking about his love for the Bears, and at one
(11:04):
point the grandson, who did a magnificent job, like everyone
was just so charmed by his eulogy and how well
he did, started talking about like he goes, but you know,
I think we got our quarterback. Now, I think we're
on the upswing. This could be the year. And it's
almost like, for a second he lost himself and started
(11:24):
to give a Bear Scout report in the middle of
the eulogy for his grandfather. But that's how much passion
there is for this team in this city right now.
Everywhere I went, every event I was at over the
weekend with family, all anyone could do was talk about
the Bears. I hate to be the guy raining on
the parade, but I'm worried. I'm worried about this team.
I think there's too much competition. I think they had
(11:45):
the exact right spot last year.
Speaker 2 (11:48):
Yeah, I just I couldn't believe I saw the number
because I think that's very telling him by the books,
because that's I feel like that's them saying we'll take
your sucker money because they know how much money they're
going to get from Bears fans.
Speaker 3 (11:59):
It's one of the biggest fans bases in the world.
Speaker 2 (12:01):
They're gonna get a ton of it. And I'm just
shocked that they think the first year. Yes, I agree
they overachieved, but to me, if Caleb keeps progressing in
this offense, you guys are gonna have a stacked offense.
My question is your defense when it comes to the Bears,
like Colos and Lovely might be a top three tight
end like bro See where Luther can be a wide
receiver vision. But I am really excited about this Bears
(12:24):
team if Caleb can take that next step. Because Caleb
all the time in the world, and you saw all
those comebacks last year, can he be consistent for those
first three quarters?
Speaker 3 (12:32):
That's what was lacking. You guys were so inconsistent for
the first three quarters of those games.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
I think of all the rabbits you pulled out of
his ass and all, yeah, you guys came back in
the fourth quarter and that was your defense too. Insane
amount of turnovers. So Chad's right between the turnover luck
the overachievement people expecting to miss it. I wouldn't touch
this one. I'll be honest, I just don't. I don't
like the number. Uh It's like I wanted to bet
on the yes. So I'm happy to hear you say no.
So I'm happy to pass on. So my first first
(12:58):
one that jumped.
Speaker 1 (12:59):
Out on yes to make the playoffs plus one oh five?
Speaker 2 (13:02):
Yes, Yeah, yes to make the playoffs. Okay, we already
talked about the Rams that missed the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (13:08):
Wait, butit hold on, hold on, because we highlighted the Patriots,
we highlighted the Bears'. Let's dip in for a second
on the Panthers because you mentioned them. We've talked about
them a lot on the show already and their season
win totals. But it seems like you were hinting at before.
I just want to close the loop on this before
we get to the Rams. You were hinting at the
(13:29):
Panthers being a team that you could see not making
the playoffs. I'm looking at their odds right now, No,
to make the playoffs. They are a minus three hundred
to not make the playoffs, are a plus two thirty
to make the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
This correlates with a bet I want to make off.
I was gonna go, I was gonna come back the pitch.
There's a better bet, a team I want to bet
on making the playoffs, and that's the Saints.
Speaker 3 (13:53):
So everyone knows we love Shuck.
Speaker 2 (13:55):
Here, if we expect this Panthers team with the number
one they they won their division last years to playing
a first play schedule, it's easy to think they will
take regression and miss the playoffs because of that. Who knows, right,
they've done well this offseason. Maybe Bryce Shung does take
the next step and they do make the playoffs. But
just as a betting man, I don't like those odds.
Like Chad just said, it's minus three hundred to miss.
(14:16):
I want to take Whenever I'm looking at bet these,
I want a plus number. If I'm locking my money
for six months. That's why I go to the Saints
with Shuck. The Saints have a pretty good defense.
Speaker 3 (14:25):
I liked it. In the draft they went after the
wide receiver position.
Speaker 2 (14:28):
You know, we've talked a little bit about you know,
it's who knows if Shuck's the real deal? Right the
their schedule last year broke very fable with him, but
he didn't make big time throws. He did get more
couporbable with Kellen Moore's offenses, He's don't won along at
plus two hundred. For the fact that they're playing in
a weak division. The Bucks and still win the division.
The Saints could steal that seventh seed. I don't hate
(14:50):
those odds. So that's what as I told the Panthers,
I could see them being one of the teams that
move out. The Bucks are a team they easily could
move in. I think the Saints are sneaky team we
can move in as well. And the Bucks don't have
that great of odds, So I prefer if I'm trying
to play came in this division in the NFC South.
Speaker 3 (15:04):
I like that. I like that Saint's odds that plus
two hundred. That's actually come down.
Speaker 2 (15:08):
A couple of books were showing up plus two forty
hard rock now plus two hundred.
Speaker 3 (15:12):
I like that.
Speaker 1 (15:13):
I like that a lot. Would you parlay Saint Tes Panthers?
Speaker 3 (15:18):
No, I don't hate that. That's fun. That is fun.
I wouldn't. I We'll talk about it. But Chad News
I like to do. I like the divisional chalk when
I do these type of parlays.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
Uh, that's right.
Speaker 3 (15:33):
I got burned.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
Last year, but it was the first year and five
years I got burned by the Chiefs. The Chiefs were
basically a lock for me.
Speaker 3 (15:40):
Every year.
Speaker 2 (15:40):
I like, say, I liked the Saints to win their division,
I'd put them in a two team or with the Chiefs.
The Chiefs were just my anchor, just because every year
the Chiefs was in the division. Obviously it's a little
different now, right, that's that's kind of as awesome, So
we can close out with that those type of bets.
But yeah, I don't know if I had parlay, you
are getting great odds. But yeah, just for a standalone,
I bet that Saints one.
Speaker 1 (16:01):
You were gonna say about the Rams.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
Yeah, the Rams one just jumped out. It's plus three
fifty to not make the playoffs. Like that's if they're
plus five hundred to win the Super Bowl or plus
three fifty to miss the playoffs. That's the better option
to take every time, is to miss the playoffs. The odds,
all the things should need to break your away. I
get the hype is so peak right now. They are
(16:24):
a studed team. They're incredible.
Speaker 3 (16:26):
Are they really that much better than the Seahawks? The Eagles?
Speaker 2 (16:31):
You know, all a couple of the forty nine ers,
these other teams in n FC, the gap is not
that wide and the sports we're gonna make it out
that be because it's all built on hype and trying
to get the public to bet into it.
Speaker 1 (16:41):
Right.
Speaker 2 (16:42):
Humans have a weird condition where if the rams were
ten to one, yes, people were betting it. But because
it's moved up so much more people are betting it right.
They're They're like, I don't want to miss it more.
It's going to keep moving, So to me, the odds
have totally shifted them missing the playoffs. That's where the
best money is. And Chad was on the last year
Stafford as much hype and and much love I give
(17:02):
the guy. He's one bet hit away. His body has
been through the ringer in Detroit. He's not he's taking
hits in the rams as well, and he's had you know,
this popped out of his back. He's had surgeries. He's
not this young stud. He's like thirty seven, thirty years old,
which on football years, he's might as well be fifty
with all the hits he's taken.
Speaker 3 (17:20):
So I know the hype.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
Aaron Donald's now coming back, supposedly like, it's just building,
building building. If you don't have a better right now,
maybe I guess a plus three seventy five before the
season starts. But I just think the pros are gonna
come in and bet this down. I just can't see
this getting more. So if you do want to bet
them to miss the playoffs, you want to parlay that
with what Chad just talked about. The Bears or the
Panthers or maybe the Patriots. Those are all fun bets
(17:45):
you're getting now. Instead of having, you know, three to one,
you can make that at ten to one bet making
it a parlay.
Speaker 3 (17:51):
So there's a lot of fun stuff you can do
with this. Rams and missed the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (17:53):
But who do we think before we go to the break,
I just want to I want to run through all
the playoff teams and make sure we're not missing anyone.
You mentioned the Chargers, you mentioned the Jags. The Jags
are I think I'm gonna get my class year. They're
minus one twenty to make the playoffs. The Chargers are
(18:15):
minus one eighty. Look, I love the coaches for both teams.
I like the quarterback for the Chargers better than the Jags.
Speaker 3 (18:26):
I like the.
Speaker 1 (18:29):
Way the Chargers, I think their path to improving is
a little bit easier because their offensive line will just
naturally be better because they're getting players back. But their
division is so hard. And the Jags, I think their
division is going to be better, and they found their
way to victories last year and the path to success.
(18:54):
But I am not a buyer on Trevor Lawrence. And like,
let's say the Texans are much better. We know, we
think they'll be better than the Colts. We think that
the Jags were better than the Titans, but there's a
path where they're not the best team in their division,
which couldn't leave them any outside looking in since that
(19:15):
is the weakest of the divisions.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
Yeah, and people forget Texas started what oh and three
or own four last Yeah, and that was an insane
hold to dig themselves out of, which yeah, helped them tremendously.
The Colts fell apart, which helped the Jacks tremendously. They're
also have a great coach in lim Combe. I think
we both really like him.
Speaker 1 (19:33):
I love him. That's that's the thing that that's my
only hesitancy is can the Liam Cone power be stronger
than the Trevor Lawrence Power.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
Yeah, and just all the weapons there too. Like you know,
I think ETM might have left though, I think he
went to the Saints.
Speaker 1 (19:51):
Yeah, he did.
Speaker 2 (19:52):
Tuton is a good running back, like they have other
guys that can step in there and fill that void. So,
you know, I look at this team and I think
they're really talented. Charles Rogers and then we haven't talked
a ton about it, but Mike McDaniel's probably one of
the bigger hires.
Speaker 3 (20:04):
Of the offseason.
Speaker 2 (20:05):
Like this guy, for all the weird, quirky stuff he
says and does, he's a great offensive mine. He's one
of the best run blocking teams on all football. He
knows how to get the most out of his quarterbacks.
And he's already doing something with Herbert that was one
of my biggest grapes, which is him holding on the
ball too much, always looking for that big play.
Speaker 3 (20:23):
He went to have his hands fast. He wanted to
make the one or two reads and then get it
out of his hands.
Speaker 2 (20:27):
Stop taking these unnecessary hits, because yes, he's missing an
offensive line and his offensive line when we're injured last year.
Herbert's whole career has been that way. He's always tried
to do too much now that comes from his Oregon days.
He just he's a playmaker.
Speaker 3 (20:39):
That's who he is. It's built into him.
Speaker 2 (20:41):
Mcdame is trying to beat that out of him, which
I think is huge for him to try to take
that next step. So I'm with you, this is really
hard to pick one of those two to miss the playoffs.
That's why didn't give it out. It's I can see
a path for both of them. One of them is
going to get knocked out by the Chiefs. If the
Chiefs are who we think they are, they're gonna actually
gonna bump one of them.
Speaker 3 (20:57):
So that's a great question. Chat.
Speaker 2 (20:59):
If I had to pick one, I'm with you it
probably would be the Jaguars. They just had so much
break their way last year. Chargers had so many things
so against them. You only could see more improvement, you know, Minter,
we'll see about their defense. With the Chargers, I think
they can win their play their way out of it
with the offense they have. But yeah, for us and
the Jaguars, I think we have both of the sake.
Question about Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 1 (21:19):
Let's still a quick break from hard rock, because then
I wanted to talk about the chiefs on the other side.
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hundred gambler in Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee. All right,
we talked about the Chiefs just for a second before
the break. We've mentioned them a few times in the conversation.
(23:26):
Right now, I think they are minus two twenty at
hard Rock to make the playoffs. Obviously, there's assumptions in here.
There's been a lot of reports about Patrick Mahomes progress
during the off season, getting back in the field relatively
quickly from the knee injury. No matter what the expectations
(23:46):
or this is going to be a playoff team, are
you buying that expectation?
Speaker 2 (23:55):
Yeah, I'm drinking as much cool aid as I can
of it. It's really Yeah, it's just a rare to me.
It's when you come buy a loan the Chiefs. It's
them coming off a horrible season. I mean, people are
gonna see it. This is the type of year where
everone's gonna do their list right, top ten teams or
top thirty two teams in the league. I will be
shocked to see how many people have the Chiefs in
their top ten. People are just leaving it for dead.
(24:15):
And that's how we are in football. It's what did
we see last happen? Like Chad just said he's not
a big believer in the Patriots. I saw respected people
who you know, have thousands of listeners say the Patriots
are their number five team heading into the season. It's
just people can't help themselves. Everyone it's recency biased. It's
like it's just what we do, we want to move
on to the new shiny toy. The Chiefs are not
(24:37):
that at all. This is a team that we expect
to take a step back right or on the other
way where it's like they just went through their season
of hell. They've never been more motivated, more doubted. I
really like this Chiefs team. House stand up for them.
So Bernie, Well, I have a bet for you that
down the line. I'm not gonna bet them for playoffs wise,
but I have some really good odds on them right
now that I've been taking advantage of for betting their futures.
Speaker 1 (25:00):
Okay, I like that. Uh. One of the other teams
that I know we've talked a lot about betting is
the Cleveland Browns.
Speaker 3 (25:11):
What do you want to say about the Browns?
Speaker 1 (25:14):
Like, do we want to bet the Browns and plus
what is it five fifty right now? Is that what
it is?
Speaker 3 (25:21):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (25:22):
Plus five point fifty to make the playoffs? We were
we we've been comfortable betting the Browns at two hundred
and one to win the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
Sure, I need, I need, I need this to be
eight hundred to one because we don't know what the
quarterback is. It could be Shador and I just I
can't be putting my real money behind your door.
Speaker 3 (25:42):
That bet.
Speaker 2 (25:43):
I made a two hundred and one that was at
Deshaun Watson coming back and everything I've seen Deshaun's looked well.
But no, I wouldn't touch this chat. There's two other
teams that are Division I like a lot more head
into the season.
Speaker 3 (25:52):
I like this Browns team.
Speaker 1 (25:54):
Do you know who else is? Who Else's number? I
like a lot Dallas Cowboys plus one hundred to make
the playoffs? Why is that not minus money? Why are
they not minus one twenty? Like I was, I was
fundamentally impressed with Brian Schottenheimmer last year and his ability
(26:18):
to coach that team, the way he managed Dak Prescott,
the way he managed it when Ceedee Lamb was out
they had a terrible defense. I think they can make
some of those changes and improvements. I think they started
doing it by overhauling the staff. I just feel like
that they're being a little bit undervalued at plus one
(26:40):
hundred to make the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (26:42):
It's fair, that's a that's a good price, but it's
also the same thing goes back to the Bears. It's
a little fishy of a line where they know the
fan base, they know people can be hanging that. Yes,
to make the playoffs in my first one to be
in a year when which the division was totally weak.
Speaker 3 (26:58):
They didn't step up.
Speaker 2 (26:59):
And that all happened in the Week one, right the
CD drop pass against the Eagles, that felt like a
sliding doors kind of moment, like they had the Eagles
without Jalen Carter CD catches that ball, they win that
Week one could totally change their season, the outlook of
their season. But they lost that game, Like you said,
it just could never get above five hundred the rest
of the year. And you know, Shody did a great
job as well. That defense is so bad. They have
(27:21):
made improvements. They did go out and get guys, and
you know that parts trade as much crap as we
gave them. It looks like it's that that was the
best way for this team that needed that had a
bunch of holes that needed to filled. You could turn
the one player into three players. You're gonna take that deal, right,
So I don't hate the bet chat.
Speaker 3 (27:36):
I just it's it's because of the division.
Speaker 2 (27:38):
Where if Dark takes that next step, if jayde Daniels
comes back to play like he did his rookie year
and the Eagles are still the Eagles. I don't know
that's gonna be as the greatest Dallas is. I could
see them having another year of being eight nine to
nine and eight. It's just hard to see them getting
to a ten eleven wins again. So that's why hesitation
with better than to make the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (27:58):
I am sewed down on the New York Football Giants.
I like, I don't like their team. I'm not a
buyer Jackson Dart. I think that Harbaugh John Harbaugh, unless
he is a culture setting genius that we haven't observed
(28:21):
in a way, I'm not buying that there is a
quick fix on this on this Giants team.
Speaker 2 (28:28):
I see it though, like I've had enough pros talk
to me about it where I see what they're coming from.
Because we talked about the time Jed all these guys
were betting. It's on the year two jump. That's everything, right.
No one predicted Caleb Wims would make the number two seed.
No one predicted that Drake May would be the two seed.
Now you could say, well, we knew Patriot be good
because their schedule we can all agree on.
Speaker 3 (28:48):
Then the head coach or anything like that.
Speaker 2 (28:50):
It's the same thing here with the Giants, right, they
have an easier schedule even though they're in a tougher division.
Like I just said, they have a new head coach,
they have a quarterback that has had flashes of I know,
coming into it, a enough creer. He said he wanted
to have his game revolve around the same type as
Jalen Hurts. He has shown them he can run the ball,
(29:10):
he can take hits. Eventually those hits caught up to
him though. That's the issue where it's like, you can't
play Jalen Hurts his style if you can't take the hits.
Speaker 3 (29:18):
So you know, we've heard that.
Speaker 2 (29:20):
He said he was gonna make adjustments. He gets interviewed
whatever it was a month ago at some golf event.
He says, yeah, I'm I'm gonna be smarter with the ball,
but if I need to get that first down, I'm
still gonna get it, which is like, again, I love
to hear that, but it's not he's not learning. He's
not getting it where it's like, dude, you have to
live now for that first down, to live for the
next snap. Like I wish you know a guy like
Elon Mine could just get in his ear about it,
(29:40):
where it's like, you just take what's given to you,
don't always have to put your head down and take
those hits from a linebacker that weighs fifty pounds more
than you. It's just I'm totally agreats with you too
about horrible. I just do not believe in him. I
think the Ravens, when of the best organizations all football,
they draft so well, like they had such a long
run of his tenure of drafting so well, and you
(30:03):
can point to well, look how great he was as
a playoff coach before Lamar, he's only struggled in the
playoffs little more. Okay, that's all fine and good. Lamar
was like a two time MVP. That can't be overstated enough. Right,
he can show like hide away of or balls.
Speaker 1 (30:18):
That's what That's my issue is that like every time
it mattered, he had the best quarterback, the best athlete
in professional football, maybe one of the best athletes to
ever play the position of quarterback in the history of football,
and he consistently made bad strategic decisions about how to
use that quarterback. And he also made strategic decisions about
(30:41):
who was going to be running the offense at this
quarterback played in so often it was infuriating, absolutely infuriating,
especially for someone who like you and I, We would
often want to bet on the Ravens. We thought like
they were so sound structurally and schematically that they would
always make the wrong decisions in the biggest moments strategically.
Speaker 2 (31:07):
Lamar had a rhythm to him too, where me and
you are easiest, beds are allies and ay tell Lamore
played an NFC team I think it was like twenty
four and two becaust NFC. It was easy money. Ay
time he played Pittsburgh, we bet Pittsburgh. He just for
some reason struggled against Pittsburgh. It was these weird rhythms
of Lamar. You know, I look at this team now
and you know it's it goes back to my Jalen
Hurts argument about all the talent Jalen Hurts us surrounded
(31:29):
by him. Lamar Jackson was part of the third greatest
dv DVOA team ever in recorded history. Now, if you
don't know what DVOA is, it's basically how we can
kind of judge these NFL teams non biased, right, It's
just pure data, peer numbers. It doesn't matter what you
see in the field. It just strictly numbers. So this
computer doesn't know Lamar is one of the greatest athletes
ever to live, right, he doesn't know that. It's just
(31:50):
taking the DVOA score of it. The third greatest team
in the history of that record keeping lost at home
to a Chiefs team that Chad probably remembers this. They
were horrible, they were the four seed. They limped into it.
Obviously won't doing the Super Bowl that year. But it
just shows the difference of like we agree horrible, he
used to be a great coach. Me and Chi had
just have major questions about him right now. And so
(32:12):
I think we're on the same page about the Giants team.
But they are minus three twenty five they missed the playoffs.
Like that's that's too high of odds. There's other ways
I think we can attack that, which we talked about
the over under much simpler way to get a cheaper
number at a better price.
Speaker 1 (32:24):
I will say Jackson Dart did throw a dart from
the top of that boat under the dude riding the
jet ski some wake somewhere where he then jumped off
the boat which had to be thirty to forty feet
high doing flips and dives, and he looked like a
young guy just having a fucking ball.
Speaker 2 (32:41):
And I would love like perfect name Dart in New
York City, the whole thing. It would be a dream
scenario for fans of the league everyone, if you worked
out it just it's it feels like coward. A lot
of people are a little too early to the party.
I think it's a year away or two. Maybe I
just I can't get there with the giants this year.
Speaker 1 (32:59):
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That's right.
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All right, So, look, one of the bets that we've
talked about every year, that is an old stat from
our friend Evan Abrams, is you take the teams that
(35:20):
are I think twelve to one or lower to win
the Super Bowl and you round robin them. And last
year it didn't work, and I think three years ago
it didn't work. But in you know, I think eleven
of the past thirteen years, the Super Bowl teams have
(35:41):
come from this bunch of teams that are twelve to
one or less. Which interesting right now is that hard
rock there's only four teams that are twelve to one
or less, and then there's one team that is thirteen
to one. So the round robin options here are Rams
plus five to fifty Ravens plus one thousand Buffalo Bills
(36:05):
plus one thousand, ten to one, ten to one, Seahawks
plus eleven hundred eleven to one, and then the Chiefs
are at thirteen to one plus thirteen hundred. Here's the thing, Simon.
Normally those teams you feel really confident like you could
see it, it would make sense. I think they're all
(36:25):
suspect in a way. The one I actually feel most
confident about is the Chiefs at thirteen to one.
Speaker 2 (36:32):
Yeah, before all this hype went on with the Rams.
If you looked before, it was all really close. All
these teams were like eight to one. The Ravens, the Rams.
Speaker 3 (36:42):
The Bills. They're all tied now.
Speaker 2 (36:43):
People know, in my position, I only bet teams who
have won Super Bowls before. I know it sounds stupid, people,
I get it, but it's just the way the league is.
It's all culture, it's offer and off, it's all ownership.
All that stuff matters so much. And just you've been
there before and you've won it. Dodds if you doing
it again, I'll go way high. You've been there before
and you've lost, your odds go way down, just as
(37:05):
Vikings fans and Bills fans right they've I think they've
both been to four Super Bowls, never won one.
Speaker 3 (37:09):
It's just whatever it is. If you haven't been invity
to the party, it's hard to get there.
Speaker 2 (37:13):
And I love the Bills. I love the Bills prospects
out for the season. I wouldn't put them in my
round robin. If I was you, chef, yeah, I acrilege.
I just wouldn't do it.
Speaker 1 (37:23):
I don't feel comfortable with it at all. All these
teams to me, like the Rams feel overhyped. The Ravens
have a new head coach, the Bills have a new
head coach, and something feels a little bit off. I'm
not going to do the Seahawks because I don't think
they're going to repeat. I don't like any of these
teams in my round robin except for Kansas City.
Speaker 3 (37:40):
Well wait then, I'll give you my exact does. Later
you'll like that better.
Speaker 1 (37:43):
We'll go to your exactors then, because by the way,
after Kansas City, it's the Niners, the Lions, the Chargers,
the Eagles. You know what I would do right now,
here's what I would do. I would do Eagles Chiefs.
That's what I would do. A Super Bowl match above
Eagles Chiefs. I want you to tell me about what
you think of that when we get to your exact
(38:06):
dos and all that kind of stuff.
Speaker 3 (38:08):
Locked in Chad, that that that's one of the plays,
is it really? Yeah? Of course?
Speaker 1 (38:13):
Oh my god, all right, I'm writing that I'm making
some notes right now as we speak, All right, Eagles
Chiefs Super Bowl matchup, number one seed in each conference.
Let's start with the NFC. The Rams plus three hundred
the Seahawks looks like it's plus plus five seventy five
(38:35):
Lions plus seven hundred Eagles plus eight hundred Packers plus
eight fifty. Dude, Howie is just it's like the whole
It's like he's playing possum. I know he doesn't set
these odds, but the dudes playing possum. If there's a
team prime to bounce back right now, is it not
(38:56):
the Eagles, just especially.
Speaker 2 (38:59):
When you look at all the different divisions right like
you think about the NFC West brutal, you think of
the NFC North brutal. Yes, the Eagles East might improve,
but there's not a single defense that entire division that
scares you. Like the Cowies not have a defense, Giants
don't have a great defense. Watch doesn't have a great defense.
Even if the Eagles do take a step back with AJ,
I think there's so much bs last year and they
(39:21):
still were almost the two seed, the one seed will
be in grasped. Like Chad's saying, at plus eight hundred,
that's that's a really good value. I much rather make
that that that touched Seattle or the Rams like that.
Speaker 3 (39:32):
Just I know last year obviously they were both fight
for the one seed.
Speaker 2 (39:35):
These teams tend to cannibalize themselves, right, and you've seen
that time, Like in your own division, the Bears, they
they basically won that second seed, won your division on
like the last day of the year, like they just
all these things had to break right for them to
get that division. So just looking at on paper, I
agree with you. It's just the the AFC is the
same exact thing here we're gonna talk about. But I
(39:57):
went in top the touch ones, just like Seattle last year.
I think out at this point last year of fifteen
to one to be the one seed. Take the long
shots to people. Don't take the chalk everyone. We're too
focused on what happened last year rather than one might.
Speaker 1 (40:08):
Be happening always. Yeah, So you like the Eagles, there's
anyone else in there that you think is worth any
value if they.
Speaker 3 (40:18):
Only have one.
Speaker 2 (40:19):
I just thought the Eagles, out of everyone that jumped
out to me, they are the best odds. Like you
could do the Bucks at twenty five to one, like
that's crazy odds. But it's just we've seen it, Baker,
he takes hits. I can't see him playing a full season.
That you need to play a full season to get
the one seed.
Speaker 1 (40:33):
All right, let's talk about the AFC. Then, what are
you looking at?
Speaker 3 (40:37):
I mean, right away the top it's business usual.
Speaker 2 (40:41):
It's Ravens Bill's Chiefs, which I thought was really funny
by the sports books, just because you know, I think
the Charger are still favorites to win the division, but.
Speaker 3 (40:50):
The Chiefs are better odds to be the one seed.
Speaker 2 (40:52):
Just shows like professional money, how it dictates these markets
and where they think the value is at. And you know,
for me, those top guys have no value. Now you
can look at Houston their next one up at ten
to one. Yeah, still wouldn't do it, because right away
it jumped out to me was Cincinnati Cincinnaty's eleven to one.
Speaker 1 (41:10):
Interesting.
Speaker 2 (41:11):
Yeah, I know I'm about the biggest Zach Taylor guy,
but I look at that team where they they've improved defensively,
Like that's all I really asked for, is them going
pre defensively. I think the general public's trying to see
the nerds are trying to see what I saw last year,
which is those sacks. Blindly baiting blaming that Bengals offensive
line was foolish. It was they were not this bad
offensive line. That's Oh, this why Drie Joe brought to succeed.
(41:34):
No Joe board to succeed because he holds on the
ball too long, he takes unnecessary hits. And it's been
following in his whole career because he had that bad
offensive lines.
Speaker 3 (41:42):
He had to do try to do too much. But
I think coming in this year, when someone goes and say, hey,
you had the number one.
Speaker 2 (41:46):
Most time in pat and when we were when you
drop back to pass in the pocket in the league, like,
that's not made up metric. That's a real metch between
you and Joe Flaco. You need to figure it out
because Joe flack Woo didn't get hurt. Joe Flack your
ten year senior. He took some hits, but he was
obviously would throw the ball to dirt. He didn't take
those unecessary hits constantly, which is Joe needs to work on.
(42:08):
But them and the Ravens, they're not that much different.
And the fact that the Ravens are the number one
favorite to be the number one seed, and the Bengals
are down here eleven to one. My model has them
literally neck and neck. So just going base off values,
I have them both at plus six hundred. That means
I'm getting in a free plus five hundred right now
in this Bengals team. So, like again, I'm not the
(42:28):
biggest Bengals believer. My model jumps out to that. It's
like I have to take notice and say, Okay, I
might be a little too hard on Joe Burrow and
Zach Taylor. This is good. This is a good number.
This is something you need to bet. So I did
bet at twelve to one. I've been at eleven oh one.
I would keep taking it until it drops down to
blow ten to one. I think it's a good value
right now in this Bengals team.
Speaker 3 (42:46):
I like it.
Speaker 1 (42:47):
I like it a lot. I was going to ask
you about the Bengals in their playoffs, and I didn't
like the numbers. I think like to make it their
minus two twenty five or something like that, which just
feels to me too bloated. But I like this opportunity
on the Bengals at eleven to one because I agree
with you I think we did see that the issues
for Joe Burrow last year were him holding the ball
(43:08):
too long, and I think that started to become a
message too, that became sort of a narrative. Oh wait
a second, maybe it's not all on their offensive line.
And I do think also they focused on defense and
improved their defense a little bit. So they're sneaky, they're quiet,
They're not getting a lot of conversation. Like all the
conversation is about, you know, the Ravens and a new coach,
(43:30):
or Patrick Mahomes coming back, or you know, the trade
of Miles Garrett to the Rams and will Aaron Donald
come back. Not a ton of conversation right now about
the Cincinnati Bengals. All right, we've reached the point of
the show where I do You've teased this a couple
of times. You got some exotic NFL playoff bets.
Speaker 2 (43:51):
This one will be my first one, will be my
Simon says, so right off the top, got to go
back to Chad already knew it.
Speaker 3 (43:59):
Chad read me like a book. Eagles to beat the
Chiefs one hundred to one. Super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (44:05):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (44:06):
So if you're new here, people, that means if I
bet a grand I can win one hundred K on
that bet. But you're like, that will never happen, Chad,
Chad knows. We know. Two years ago, your buddy Sibon
here put it around ten to fifteen K. A bunch
of different matchups, and the biggest one I lean into
was Eagles versus the Chiefs matchup, and I basically bet
(44:28):
it was like five K to win three hundred k. People, So,
I know it sounds crazy. You're like, this will never happen.
Now I'm getting the better odds now. I only need
to bet three thousand dollars to win three hundred k.
So I just it just shows where two years two,
three years ago, the Eagles and the Chiefs were just
so much more hyped. We're getting even better odds now.
I'm telling you these teams from those two years ago
no different.
Speaker 3 (44:48):
In my model. These are just as good as teams.
It's all about health, that's all football is.
Speaker 2 (44:52):
That's why we want to bet these crazy odds because
we need a lot of luck divisus to get there.
Speaker 3 (44:57):
We need health. Both these teams stay healthy.
Speaker 2 (44:59):
I think they're both top two, top three teams in
their respected conferences. So right there, jumped out, if you
want to do the flip side the Chiefs to beat
the Eagles. Same thing at hard Rock one hundred to one.
We just talked about the Bengals. I like people, no,
I like betting repeat Super Bowls and.
Speaker 3 (45:17):
It happens.
Speaker 2 (45:17):
It just I mean, it sounds crazy, but every year
it happens. Patriots Seahawks repeat Super Bowl matchup, like these
things that the NFL is so cyclical, it's so repeatable.
The same Bengals to beat the Rams one hundred to one.
Speaker 3 (45:31):
I just I get. I'm looking at hundred and one
bets the Rams.
Speaker 2 (45:34):
You really can't find good odds on them, but to
fade them, to have them losing Super you can get
some pretty good odds. So that was one hundred and
twenty to one. It's now dropped down one hundred and
one Bengals over the Rams in Super Bowl. So those
are exact those you know, if you want to do
three or four of them, but you know, five bucks
on each. They're just really fun bets to come back
to in the playoffs where it's easy to hedge, right
(45:55):
if you if you want to hedge the NFC Championship
and want to hedge the AFC Championship Game have such
crazy odds, you're gonna have a lot opportunity to do that.
Speaker 3 (46:02):
So that's why I like nick these type of bets.
Speaker 1 (46:04):
Listen, I owe you a chad choice, and I was
going to do the Bears to miss the playoffs, and like,
I can't do that. Like at the end of the day,
I can't have one of my season long bets be
against the team that I am going to be living
and dying with all season long. I can't emotionally hedge
(46:26):
a season long But I think you really got me
on the Saints. So my chad choice is going to
be the New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs at
plus two hundred. I like the situation with the South.
I like a little bit of regression from the Panthers
and their schedule. I think we liked what we saw
(46:48):
from Kellen Moore and Tyler Shock last year. So I'm
going with the Saints' chad choice plus two hundred to
make the playoffs. What do you think of that? I
always like feedback.
Speaker 2 (47:01):
I love it, and I would say the only only
one I really disagreed was of any of the points
you even gave was your Patriots take where I was
all aboard baiting the Patriots, but just the everyone I
talked to in the Miami organization and the Jets organization
is that four free wins and if they split with
the Bills, that means they have five wins potentially just
in their division. So that's what's so terrifying with them
(47:23):
the Bills, right, I can see either of them winning
that division and obviously being a top seed, just because
they have.
Speaker 3 (47:29):
Potentially four free games this year. Like it just seems
all purposes.
Speaker 2 (47:33):
The Jets really don't want to win this year, and
Miami is right on board with that, like they know
this next upcoming class of quarterbacks it's insane, it's one
of it might be one of the best classes I've
ever seen coming out. We'll see how that happens in
regular season, right with college football, But as we sit
here right now, the Jets, Miami, they are truly trying
to tank and they're being open about it.
Speaker 3 (47:53):
So I was right there with you.
Speaker 2 (47:54):
I was full blown ready to fade this Patriots team.
But the fact that you're bringing an AJ Brown who
was see about his health, but if he's healthy, dead
defense with Drake May hopefully taking that next step. If
you're a Patriots fan, I don't know how they don't
get the ten wins and ten wins we've seen the past.
That's good enough to get to seven to see in
the AFC. So I get where you're coming from. I
wanted to be on the fade the Patriots bandwagon as well.
(48:16):
Chat just at that price. I can't do it for
them to miss the playoffs, all.
Speaker 1 (48:20):
Right, So our Simon says, presented by hard Rock bets
Eagles to beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl at
one hundred to one. Our Chad's Choice, presented by hard
Rock bet New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs at
plus two one hundred. That is our show. Reminder, no
(48:43):
show on Thursday. Samon and I are back on Tuesday.
MLB Midseason Betting with Sean Zarillo. This has been Sharp
or Square part of the Volume podcast network. Watcher listen
on YouTube or Washer Listen on YouTube. Bet shoppers like
this video, subscribe to the channel and download us to Spotify,
Apple Pod wherever you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe,
(49:06):
leave us five stars, say whatever you want, feedback because
it gets until next time.
Speaker 3 (49:10):
Love you and when you look at Kelvin Benjamin Gods.
He's six', five he's two hundred and forty five.
Speaker 1 (49:15):
Pounds he's probably A popeye's biscuit away from being a tight,
end and he has trouble getting separation
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet. We
are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the
betting show that makes the squares. Sharper makes the wise
guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I am joined
as I am for every show by my co host,
my bff, my companion, mikeel Padre professional Better Simon Hunter
(00:22):
Eto Simon Chad.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
As we turn this page after our brutal World Cup
loss last night, thank god for only what four weeks
away from our first preseason the game, I think Adam
Schefter tweeted, so it did what it needed to do.
It killed us a month of time and we only
have to make another month work until we have some.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
Look, it's been amazing and like, I really love the
collective experience that everyone's been sharing with the World Cup.
It's been so much fun to watch such a brutal
loss last night. Bad bad mistakes, you know what I
love about it. I don't know if you can see this, Simon.
I know you're wearing World Cup paraphernalia. I right now
(01:03):
am wearing a Tottenham Hotspur T shirt and I'm going
to tell you why I'm wearing that, Because I was
with my family, my sister and her family and my
wife and our two boys went away for a few
days and me and my two guys were hanging out
and we were all talking about the World Cup. And
(01:23):
you know, my younger son is a huge sports fan.
My other son has never been a sports fan, but
he's gotten really into the World Cup. Even before he
was like, I feel like, I love soccer. I want
to know more about the World Cups. We've been talking
about it for a while. And then we were all
hanging out while we were away and they were both like,
I wish we had a way to engage with soccer,
(01:46):
like a soccer team to root for all year long.
And we settled on you know, EPL and we decided
these were the criteria. You can tell me what you
think of this. We decided we had to go with
a team in London because if we visit London, we
want to be able to go watch the game. We
decided we didn't want to do like you know, Arsenal
or Chelsea, because we want to root for teams that
(02:08):
like our bandwagon teams. That's like rooting for the Cowboys
in the US. We wanted a team that was a
lot like rooting for the Cubs or the Bears. And
so we settled on Tottenham Hotspur and I've gone through
the history. I love the history. I love that hot
Spur is the name of a knight from Shakespeare. I
(02:31):
love that it was started by schoolboys hanging out together.
I love that they go up and down, up and down.
But they're kind of hard luck losers. So I'm all in.
We're all in, Go Spurs go.
Speaker 3 (02:47):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
I would say that's a pretty American team, the Spurs,
So I would say you're very on brand most Americans that.
Speaker 3 (02:54):
Yeah, I know. It's it's it's.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
Kind of funny where Americans, for some reason gravitate towards
the Spurs.
Speaker 3 (02:59):
I don't know if it's further Jerseys or whatever.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
That's so interesting.
Speaker 2 (03:03):
For a second ear they say west Ham, which was
gonna get me really fired up. That's a true no
one knows underground, great London club. But yeah, like you
can't go wrong my Like we talked about this World Cup,
honestly has been a dream as a fan. I wanted
the Americans to be engaged. They're heavily engaged. I mean,
Seeen Coward do forty minutes on soccer insane. I don't
(03:27):
know if how long people followed Calrot's career, but you
would have told Coward ten years ago he would spend
forty minutes breaking out never never, never never.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
So this is what I want.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
This has been my dream, and I talked about it.
It's a culture thing, right, America. You just got the
You just got the crappy smack Daddy by Belgium. That
was the worst game we could possibly play. I wouldn't
be so upset overrated.
Speaker 3 (03:50):
It just it happens.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
Right, We're playing against a team that has players who
played in these big games before. You will say it
doesn't have that. That's part of the growing process, part
of building the culture. But yeah, aways tell Americans the
biggest thing America is missing is we don't have our
Messa yet. We don't have our Harry Kane. We need
a striker, a top that has this god given ability
to score.
Speaker 3 (04:10):
And you've seen it.
Speaker 2 (04:11):
There's four or five guys in this World Cup that
when they have that ball, it just feels like they're
gonna score. We've never experienced that as a country. So
that's I don't know if it's twenty years away now,
if it's ten years away. Maybe it's the next World
Cup chat, but that's what we need as a country
to move forward right this round of sixteen. Buffer We're
gonna keep hitting it. Even if we won this game
against Belgium, who is our next round against Spain.
Speaker 3 (04:32):
So it's it's a tough. It's tough right now.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
But as a fan seeing American embrace it, see the
country embrace the World Cup, it's fun as a gambler,
a ton to bet on. And yeah, it's like you said,
it's just such heartbreak. I'm still not over it. Like
even last night I could barely sleep. Or it's like
I thought we were gonna win. I really thought, honestly
we're gonna beat Belgium. So it's gonna take me a
little bit. But like right now, pulse like Christian Poulsik,
(04:55):
I'm so bitter. I'm just really bitter. I don't want
to say too much mean stuff and I'm trying to
positive about it, but they just laid down like a
dead dog in that game. I'm so mad about how
they played and how it all worked out. But thank
god we have football to talk about.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
Brother. You mentioned Harry Kaye, former Tottenham hospital legend, legend.
Harry Kay, Harry Kay. We do have football to talk about.
We are going to talk about soccer. Next week We're
going to have du Bundo back on to talk some soccer.
We're also going to have Shonzailla to talk about mid
season baseball. But this week today we are talking about
(05:34):
some really cool NFL early prediction markets we can lean into.
I don't mean prediction markets, I mean markets that hard
Rock bat has up right now, especially some playoff markets
that we're going to give out some of our favorites
on today. We have no episode on Thursday. Everyone's taking
a little bit of a break. Next week. Like I mentioned,
(05:56):
we have Zarillo, we have Da Bundo. After that, folks,
all football, all the time, beginning of football beginning July
twenty first, Ben Solac from ESPN. I love the guy,
you guys. Last year I mentioned his stuff on the
show all the time, so I'm excited that he's going
to be coming on the twenty first. Then it's our
(06:17):
top ten QBS episode. Then we'll go into our division
by division preview episodes. Get freaking ready because the other
football leaves and this football comes in. Like I said,
Harder Rock has a ton of markets out right now,
super Bowl Conference, in division futures. Obviously they got win totals.
(06:40):
You can bet on every team's stage of elimination, you
can bet on divisional finishing positions, exact order props, all that. So, Simon,
we don't have to be that organized here. Why don't
you kick it off? Before we jumped on the show,
(07:02):
you had some ideas, So what are some things you're
thinking about? I know you mentioned the Bears. Do you
want to start with the Bears? I don't know if
you were just trying to sort of, you know, speak
to my passions, or was the Bears a real thing?
Or what do you want to start here?
Speaker 2 (07:19):
Well, let's start with the easiest secor exercise, which is
every year we look at last year's playoff teams. That
should always be your baseline, right, this is what the
league is. There's a lot of turnover, there's a lot
of who's out exactly who's in, who's out. It's very dumb,
It sounds very basic, but we have the data. Every
year three to four teams from the previous year won't
(07:39):
make it. If you would have told me and Chad
last year, the Chiefs can be one of those three
or four teams, I would have been shocked. I think
Chad would have been shocked. So that's the best part
about doing this is like you really don't know. Like
telling me the Chiefs, the Bills, and the Ravens weren't
going to win their divisions last year, I would have
been pretty shocked.
Speaker 3 (07:55):
None of them won their divisions.
Speaker 2 (07:56):
So just going back last year the one Seeds, if
you remember the go in the Seattle, I don't know
about you. Do you think both of them are gonna
make it? I think both of them are gonna playoffs, right,
I do.
Speaker 1 (08:06):
But I will tell you this, I don't have a
great feeling about the Patriots. I would not be Like
I'm a big believer in schedule and I'm a big
believer in the challenges of a new schedule. It's why
when we talk about the Bears, I'm not that high
in the Bears going into this season. I think Minnesota's
(08:27):
gonna be better. I think Detroit's going to be better.
I think Green Bay is going to be better. I
think they've got a challenging schedule. I think the same
thing about the Patriots, Like obviously they got to contend
with the Bills, but they're gonna have a much harder
schedule this year. If we're talking right off the top,
would I would like the Patriots. I got to find their.
Speaker 3 (08:47):
Odds here the miss playoffs.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
I would not be uncomfortable taking a little taste of
the Patriots of plus one fifty.
Speaker 3 (08:55):
And that's why we're doing this exercise people.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
So yeah, the Patriots a two seat from last year,
so you have them out and just let's just finish
the AFC. The Steelers, I think we both agree. If
we're gonna kick someone out, it's guy. Yes, yes, they're
they're they're at the back end. Chargers, Jaguars, you want
to kick either of them out yet?
Speaker 3 (09:13):
Or no? Right, a little tougher on those two, so
we'll keep a moving.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
Yeah, the space going the NFC also felt tough. It
felt like the Bears and the Panthers are the really
two ones that jump out right away. Yeah, teams you
can easily see missing the playoffs. Now, Packers, you know
they could, Eagles, they could, right, but just right away
in the first two I looked at was Panthers, and obviously,
you know we love the Bears.
Speaker 3 (09:41):
That's what I want to start with.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
You chat with your Bears, they're plus one oh five,
which again that's the book telling you this is one
of the teams on the outside looking in because what
you just talked about, the everything broke their way. They
got the two seed where you at chat plus one
oh five to make the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (09:57):
I would be betting against the Bears to make the playoffs.
I am not high on the Bears. Look, I was
just in Chicago. Unfortunately a close friend his father passed away,
and so I was in Chicago and this guy, everyone
who listens to the show knows, my buddy, Matt. His
father passed away, and I grew up going to Bears
(10:19):
games with Matt and his family because they had season
tickets to the Bears for the entirety of my life,
and so I went to every home game when I
was growing up, all through high school with Matt and
his mom and dad, and his dad was such a
rabid Bears fan that it was a constant conversation. I know,
(10:43):
Matt and his dad and one of his three kids,
who was a massive Bears fan. They would text about
the games all the time, and so I had a
lot of Bears talk. This weekend. At one point when
his Matt's oldest kid was eulogizing his grandfather. He started
talking about his love for the Bears, and at one
(11:04):
point the grandson, who did a magnificent job, like everyone
was just so charmed by his eulogy and how well
he did, started talking about like he goes, but you know,
I think we got our quarterback. Now, I think we're
on the upswing. This could be the year. And it's
almost like, for a second he lost himself and started
(11:24):
to give a Bear Scout report in the middle of
the eulogy for his grandfather. But that's how much passion
there is for this team in this city right now.
Everywhere I went, every event I was at over the
weekend with family, all anyone could do was talk about
the Bears. I hate to be the guy raining on
the parade, but I'm worried. I'm worried about this team.
I think there's too much competition. I think they had
(11:45):
the exact right spot last year.
Speaker 2 (11:48):
Yeah, I just I couldn't believe I saw the number
because I think that's very telling him by the books,
because that's I feel like that's them saying we'll take
your sucker money because they know how much money they're
going to get from Bears fans.
Speaker 3 (11:59):
It's one of the biggest fans bases in the world.
Speaker 2 (12:01):
They're gonna get a ton of it. And I'm just
shocked that they think the first year. Yes, I agree
they overachieved, but to me, if Caleb keeps progressing in
this offense, you guys are gonna have a stacked offense.
My question is your defense when it comes to the Bears,
like Colos and Lovely might be a top three tight
end like bro See where Luther can be a wide
receiver vision. But I am really excited about this Bears
(12:24):
team if Caleb can take that next step. Because Caleb
all the time in the world, and you saw all
those comebacks last year, can he be consistent for those
first three quarters?
Speaker 3 (12:32):
That's what was lacking. You guys were so inconsistent for
the first three quarters of those games.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
I think of all the rabbits you pulled out of
his ass and all, yeah, you guys came back in
the fourth quarter and that was your defense too. Insane
amount of turnovers. So Chad's right between the turnover luck
the overachievement people expecting to miss it. I wouldn't touch
this one. I'll be honest, I just don't. I don't
like the number. Uh It's like I wanted to bet
on the yes. So I'm happy to hear you say no.
So I'm happy to pass on. So my first first
(12:58):
one that jumped.
Speaker 1 (12:59):
Out on yes to make the playoffs plus one oh five?
Speaker 2 (13:02):
Yes, Yeah, yes to make the playoffs. Okay, we already
talked about the Rams that missed the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (13:08):
Wait, butit hold on, hold on, because we highlighted the Patriots,
we highlighted the Bears'. Let's dip in for a second
on the Panthers because you mentioned them. We've talked about
them a lot on the show already and their season
win totals. But it seems like you were hinting at before.
I just want to close the loop on this before
we get to the Rams. You were hinting at the
(13:29):
Panthers being a team that you could see not making
the playoffs. I'm looking at their odds right now, No,
to make the playoffs. They are a minus three hundred
to not make the playoffs, are a plus two thirty
to make the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
This correlates with a bet I want to make off.
I was gonna go, I was gonna come back the pitch.
There's a better bet, a team I want to bet
on making the playoffs, and that's the Saints.
Speaker 3 (13:53):
So everyone knows we love Shuck.
Speaker 2 (13:55):
Here, if we expect this Panthers team with the number
one they they won their division last years to playing
a first play schedule, it's easy to think they will
take regression and miss the playoffs because of that. Who knows, right,
they've done well this offseason. Maybe Bryce Shung does take
the next step and they do make the playoffs. But
just as a betting man, I don't like those odds.
Like Chad just said, it's minus three hundred to miss.
(14:16):
I want to take Whenever I'm looking at bet these,
I want a plus number. If I'm locking my money
for six months. That's why I go to the Saints
with Shuck. The Saints have a pretty good defense.
Speaker 3 (14:25):
I liked it. In the draft they went after the
wide receiver position.
Speaker 2 (14:28):
You know, we've talked a little bit about you know,
it's who knows if Shuck's the real deal? Right the
their schedule last year broke very fable with him, but
he didn't make big time throws. He did get more
couporbable with Kellen Moore's offenses, He's don't won along at
plus two hundred. For the fact that they're playing in
a weak division. The Bucks and still win the division.
The Saints could steal that seventh seed. I don't hate
(14:50):
those odds. So that's what as I told the Panthers,
I could see them being one of the teams that
move out. The Bucks are a team they easily could
move in. I think the Saints are sneaky team we
can move in as well. And the Bucks don't have
that great of odds, So I prefer if I'm trying
to play came in this division in the NFC South.
Speaker 3 (15:04):
I like that. I like that Saint's odds that plus
two hundred. That's actually come down.
Speaker 2 (15:08):
A couple of books were showing up plus two forty
hard rock now plus two hundred.
Speaker 3 (15:12):
I like that.
Speaker 1 (15:13):
I like that a lot. Would you parlay Saint Tes Panthers?
Speaker 3 (15:18):
No, I don't hate that. That's fun. That is fun.
I wouldn't. I We'll talk about it. But Chad News
I like to do. I like the divisional chalk when
I do these type of parlays.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
Uh, that's right.
Speaker 3 (15:33):
I got burned.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
Last year, but it was the first year and five
years I got burned by the Chiefs. The Chiefs were
basically a lock for me.
Speaker 3 (15:40):
Every year.
Speaker 2 (15:40):
I like, say, I liked the Saints to win their division,
I'd put them in a two team or with the Chiefs.
The Chiefs were just my anchor, just because every year
the Chiefs was in the division. Obviously it's a little
different now, right, that's that's kind of as awesome, So
we can close out with that those type of bets.
But yeah, I don't know if I had parlay, you
are getting great odds. But yeah, just for a standalone,
I bet that Saints one.
Speaker 1 (16:01):
You were gonna say about the Rams.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
Yeah, the Rams one just jumped out. It's plus three
fifty to not make the playoffs. Like that's if they're
plus five hundred to win the Super Bowl or plus
three fifty to miss the playoffs. That's the better option
to take every time, is to miss the playoffs. The odds,
all the things should need to break your away. I
get the hype is so peak right now. They are
(16:24):
a studed team. They're incredible.
Speaker 3 (16:26):
Are they really that much better than the Seahawks? The Eagles?
Speaker 2 (16:31):
You know, all a couple of the forty nine ers,
these other teams in n FC, the gap is not
that wide and the sports we're gonna make it out
that be because it's all built on hype and trying
to get the public to bet into it.
Speaker 1 (16:41):
Right.
Speaker 2 (16:42):
Humans have a weird condition where if the rams were
ten to one, yes, people were betting it. But because
it's moved up so much more people are betting it right.
They're They're like, I don't want to miss it more.
It's going to keep moving, So to me, the odds
have totally shifted them missing the playoffs. That's where the
best money is. And Chad was on the last year
Stafford as much hype and and much love I give
(17:02):
the guy. He's one bet hit away. His body has
been through the ringer in Detroit. He's not he's taking
hits in the rams as well, and he's had you know,
this popped out of his back. He's had surgeries. He's
not this young stud. He's like thirty seven, thirty years old,
which on football years, he's might as well be fifty
with all the hits he's taken.
Speaker 3 (17:20):
So I know the hype.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
Aaron Donald's now coming back, supposedly like, it's just building,
building building. If you don't have a better right now,
maybe I guess a plus three seventy five before the
season starts. But I just think the pros are gonna
come in and bet this down. I just can't see
this getting more. So if you do want to bet
them to miss the playoffs, you want to parlay that
with what Chad just talked about. The Bears or the
Panthers or maybe the Patriots. Those are all fun bets
(17:45):
you're getting now. Instead of having, you know, three to one,
you can make that at ten to one bet making
it a parlay.
Speaker 3 (17:51):
So there's a lot of fun stuff you can do
with this. Rams and missed the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (17:53):
But who do we think before we go to the break,
I just want to I want to run through all
the playoff teams and make sure we're not missing anyone.
You mentioned the Chargers, you mentioned the Jags. The Jags
are I think I'm gonna get my class year. They're
minus one twenty to make the playoffs. The Chargers are
(18:15):
minus one eighty. Look, I love the coaches for both teams.
I like the quarterback for the Chargers better than the Jags.
Speaker 3 (18:26):
I like the.
Speaker 1 (18:29):
Way the Chargers, I think their path to improving is
a little bit easier because their offensive line will just
naturally be better because they're getting players back. But their
division is so hard. And the Jags, I think their
division is going to be better, and they found their
way to victories last year and the path to success.
(18:54):
But I am not a buyer on Trevor Lawrence. And like,
let's say the Texans are much better. We know, we
think they'll be better than the Colts. We think that
the Jags were better than the Titans, but there's a
path where they're not the best team in their division,
which couldn't leave them any outside looking in since that
(19:15):
is the weakest of the divisions.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
Yeah, and people forget Texas started what oh and three
or own four last Yeah, and that was an insane
hold to dig themselves out of, which yeah, helped them tremendously.
The Colts fell apart, which helped the Jacks tremendously. They're
also have a great coach in lim Combe. I think
we both really like him.
Speaker 1 (19:33):
I love him. That's that's the thing that that's my
only hesitancy is can the Liam Cone power be stronger
than the Trevor Lawrence Power.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
Yeah, and just all the weapons there too. Like you know,
I think ETM might have left though, I think he
went to the Saints.
Speaker 1 (19:51):
Yeah, he did.
Speaker 2 (19:52):
Tuton is a good running back, like they have other
guys that can step in there and fill that void. So,
you know, I look at this team and I think
they're really talented. Charles Rogers and then we haven't talked
a ton about it, but Mike McDaniel's probably one of
the bigger hires.
Speaker 3 (20:04):
Of the offseason.
Speaker 2 (20:05):
Like this guy, for all the weird, quirky stuff he
says and does, he's a great offensive mine. He's one
of the best run blocking teams on all football. He
knows how to get the most out of his quarterbacks.
And he's already doing something with Herbert that was one
of my biggest grapes, which is him holding on the
ball too much, always looking for that big play.
Speaker 3 (20:23):
He went to have his hands fast. He wanted to
make the one or two reads and then get it
out of his hands.
Speaker 2 (20:27):
Stop taking these unnecessary hits, because yes, he's missing an
offensive line and his offensive line when we're injured last year.
Herbert's whole career has been that way. He's always tried
to do too much now that comes from his Oregon days.
He just he's a playmaker.
Speaker 3 (20:39):
That's who he is. It's built into him.
Speaker 2 (20:41):
Mcdame is trying to beat that out of him, which
I think is huge for him to try to take
that next step. So I'm with you, this is really
hard to pick one of those two to miss the playoffs.
That's why didn't give it out. It's I can see
a path for both of them. One of them is
going to get knocked out by the Chiefs. If the
Chiefs are who we think they are, they're gonna actually
gonna bump one of them.
Speaker 3 (20:57):
So that's a great question. Chat.
Speaker 2 (20:59):
If I had to pick one, I'm with you it
probably would be the Jaguars. They just had so much
break their way last year. Chargers had so many things
so against them. You only could see more improvement, you know, Minter,
we'll see about their defense. With the Chargers, I think
they can win their play their way out of it
with the offense they have. But yeah, for us and
the Jaguars, I think we have both of the sake.
Question about Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 1 (21:19):
Let's still a quick break from hard rock, because then
I wanted to talk about the chiefs on the other side.
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(23:06):
and nine with it. In Arizona, Ohio, and Virginia called
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hundred gambler in Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee. All right,
we talked about the Chiefs just for a second before
the break. We've mentioned them a few times in the conversation.
(23:26):
Right now, I think they are minus two twenty at
hard Rock to make the playoffs. Obviously, there's assumptions in here.
There's been a lot of reports about Patrick Mahomes progress
during the off season, getting back in the field relatively
quickly from the knee injury. No matter what the expectations
(23:46):
or this is going to be a playoff team, are
you buying that expectation?
Speaker 2 (23:55):
Yeah, I'm drinking as much cool aid as I can
of it. It's really Yeah, it's just a rare to me.
It's when you come buy a loan the Chiefs. It's
them coming off a horrible season. I mean, people are
gonna see it. This is the type of year where
everone's gonna do their list right, top ten teams or
top thirty two teams in the league. I will be
shocked to see how many people have the Chiefs in
their top ten. People are just leaving it for dead.
(24:15):
And that's how we are in football. It's what did
we see last happen? Like Chad just said he's not
a big believer in the Patriots. I saw respected people
who you know, have thousands of listeners say the Patriots
are their number five team heading into the season. It's
just people can't help themselves. Everyone it's recency biased. It's
like it's just what we do, we want to move
on to the new shiny toy. The Chiefs are not
(24:37):
that at all. This is a team that we expect
to take a step back right or on the other
way where it's like they just went through their season
of hell. They've never been more motivated, more doubted. I
really like this Chiefs team. House stand up for them.
So Bernie, Well, I have a bet for you that
down the line. I'm not gonna bet them for playoffs wise,
but I have some really good odds on them right
now that I've been taking advantage of for betting their futures.
Speaker 1 (25:00):
Okay, I like that. Uh. One of the other teams
that I know we've talked a lot about betting is
the Cleveland Browns.
Speaker 3 (25:11):
What do you want to say about the Browns?
Speaker 1 (25:14):
Like, do we want to bet the Browns and plus
what is it five fifty right now? Is that what
it is?
Speaker 3 (25:21):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (25:22):
Plus five point fifty to make the playoffs? We were
we we've been comfortable betting the Browns at two hundred
and one to win the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
Sure, I need, I need, I need this to be
eight hundred to one because we don't know what the
quarterback is. It could be Shador and I just I
can't be putting my real money behind your door.
Speaker 3 (25:42):
That bet.
Speaker 2 (25:43):
I made a two hundred and one that was at
Deshaun Watson coming back and everything I've seen Deshaun's looked well.
But no, I wouldn't touch this chat. There's two other
teams that are Division I like a lot more head
into the season.
Speaker 3 (25:52):
I like this Browns team.
Speaker 1 (25:54):
Do you know who else is? Who Else's number? I
like a lot Dallas Cowboys plus one hundred to make
the playoffs? Why is that not minus money? Why are
they not minus one twenty? Like I was, I was
fundamentally impressed with Brian Schottenheimmer last year and his ability
(26:18):
to coach that team, the way he managed Dak Prescott,
the way he managed it when Ceedee Lamb was out
they had a terrible defense. I think they can make
some of those changes and improvements. I think they started
doing it by overhauling the staff. I just feel like
that they're being a little bit undervalued at plus one
(26:40):
hundred to make the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (26:42):
It's fair, that's a that's a good price, but it's
also the same thing goes back to the Bears. It's
a little fishy of a line where they know the
fan base, they know people can be hanging that. Yes,
to make the playoffs in my first one to be
in a year when which the division was totally weak.
Speaker 3 (26:58):
They didn't step up.
Speaker 2 (26:59):
And that all happened in the Week one, right the
CD drop pass against the Eagles, that felt like a
sliding doors kind of moment, like they had the Eagles
without Jalen Carter CD catches that ball, they win that
Week one could totally change their season, the outlook of
their season. But they lost that game, Like you said,
it just could never get above five hundred the rest
of the year. And you know, Shody did a great
job as well. That defense is so bad. They have
(27:21):
made improvements. They did go out and get guys, and
you know that parts trade as much crap as we
gave them. It looks like it's that that was the
best way for this team that needed that had a
bunch of holes that needed to filled. You could turn
the one player into three players. You're gonna take that deal, right,
So I don't hate the bet chat.
Speaker 3 (27:36):
I just it's it's because of the division.
Speaker 2 (27:38):
Where if Dark takes that next step, if jayde Daniels
comes back to play like he did his rookie year
and the Eagles are still the Eagles. I don't know
that's gonna be as the greatest Dallas is. I could
see them having another year of being eight nine to
nine and eight. It's just hard to see them getting
to a ten eleven wins again. So that's why hesitation
with better than to make the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (27:58):
I am sewed down on the New York Football Giants.
I like, I don't like their team. I'm not a
buyer Jackson Dart. I think that Harbaugh John Harbaugh, unless
he is a culture setting genius that we haven't observed
(28:21):
in a way, I'm not buying that there is a
quick fix on this on this Giants team.
Speaker 2 (28:28):
I see it though, like I've had enough pros talk
to me about it where I see what they're coming from.
Because we talked about the time Jed all these guys
were betting. It's on the year two jump. That's everything, right.
No one predicted Caleb Wims would make the number two seed.
No one predicted that Drake May would be the two seed.
Now you could say, well, we knew Patriot be good
because their schedule we can all agree on.
Speaker 3 (28:48):
Then the head coach or anything like that.
Speaker 2 (28:50):
It's the same thing here with the Giants, right, they
have an easier schedule even though they're in a tougher division.
Like I just said, they have a new head coach,
they have a quarterback that has had flashes of I know,
coming into it, a enough creer. He said he wanted
to have his game revolve around the same type as
Jalen Hurts. He has shown them he can run the ball,
(29:10):
he can take hits. Eventually those hits caught up to
him though. That's the issue where it's like, you can't
play Jalen Hurts his style if you can't take the hits.
Speaker 3 (29:18):
So you know, we've heard that.
Speaker 2 (29:20):
He said he was gonna make adjustments. He gets interviewed
whatever it was a month ago at some golf event.
He says, yeah, I'm I'm gonna be smarter with the ball,
but if I need to get that first down, I'm
still gonna get it, which is like, again, I love
to hear that, but it's not he's not learning. He's
not getting it where it's like, dude, you have to
live now for that first down, to live for the
next snap. Like I wish you know a guy like
Elon Mine could just get in his ear about it,
(29:40):
where it's like, you just take what's given to you,
don't always have to put your head down and take
those hits from a linebacker that weighs fifty pounds more
than you. It's just I'm totally agreats with you too
about horrible. I just do not believe in him. I
think the Ravens, when of the best organizations all football,
they draft so well, like they had such a long
run of his tenure of drafting so well, and you
(30:03):
can point to well, look how great he was as
a playoff coach before Lamar, he's only struggled in the
playoffs little more. Okay, that's all fine and good. Lamar
was like a two time MVP. That can't be overstated enough. Right,
he can show like hide away of or balls.
Speaker 1 (30:18):
That's what That's my issue is that like every time
it mattered, he had the best quarterback, the best athlete
in professional football, maybe one of the best athletes to
ever play the position of quarterback in the history of football,
and he consistently made bad strategic decisions about how to
use that quarterback. And he also made strategic decisions about
(30:41):
who was going to be running the offense at this
quarterback played in so often it was infuriating, absolutely infuriating,
especially for someone who like you and I, We would
often want to bet on the Ravens. We thought like
they were so sound structurally and schematically that they would
always make the wrong decisions in the biggest moments strategically.
Speaker 2 (31:07):
Lamar had a rhythm to him too, where me and
you are easiest, beds are allies and ay tell Lamore
played an NFC team I think it was like twenty
four and two becaust NFC. It was easy money. Ay
time he played Pittsburgh, we bet Pittsburgh. He just for
some reason struggled against Pittsburgh. It was these weird rhythms
of Lamar. You know, I look at this team now
and you know it's it goes back to my Jalen
Hurts argument about all the talent Jalen Hurts us surrounded
(31:29):
by him. Lamar Jackson was part of the third greatest
dv DVOA team ever in recorded history. Now, if you
don't know what DVOA is, it's basically how we can
kind of judge these NFL teams non biased, right, It's
just pure data, peer numbers. It doesn't matter what you
see in the field. It just strictly numbers. So this
computer doesn't know Lamar is one of the greatest athletes
ever to live, right, he doesn't know that. It's just
(31:50):
taking the DVOA score of it. The third greatest team
in the history of that record keeping lost at home
to a Chiefs team that Chad probably remembers this. They
were horrible, they were the four seed. They limped into it.
Obviously won't doing the Super Bowl that year. But it
just shows the difference of like we agree horrible, he
used to be a great coach. Me and Chi had
just have major questions about him right now. And so
(32:12):
I think we're on the same page about the Giants team.
But they are minus three twenty five they missed the playoffs.
Like that's that's too high of odds. There's other ways
I think we can attack that, which we talked about
the over under much simpler way to get a cheaper
number at a better price.
Speaker 1 (32:24):
I will say Jackson Dart did throw a dart from
the top of that boat under the dude riding the
jet ski some wake somewhere where he then jumped off
the boat which had to be thirty to forty feet
high doing flips and dives, and he looked like a
young guy just having a fucking ball.
Speaker 2 (32:41):
And I would love like perfect name Dart in New
York City, the whole thing. It would be a dream
scenario for fans of the league everyone, if you worked
out it just it's it feels like coward. A lot
of people are a little too early to the party.
I think it's a year away or two. Maybe I
just I can't get there with the giants this year.
Speaker 1 (32:59):
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That's right.
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All right, So, look, one of the bets that we've
talked about every year, that is an old stat from
our friend Evan Abrams, is you take the teams that
(35:20):
are I think twelve to one or lower to win
the Super Bowl and you round robin them. And last
year it didn't work, and I think three years ago
it didn't work. But in you know, I think eleven
of the past thirteen years, the Super Bowl teams have
(35:41):
come from this bunch of teams that are twelve to
one or less. Which interesting right now is that hard
rock there's only four teams that are twelve to one
or less, and then there's one team that is thirteen
to one. So the round robin options here are Rams
plus five to fifty Ravens plus one thousand Buffalo Bills
(36:05):
plus one thousand, ten to one, ten to one, Seahawks
plus eleven hundred eleven to one, and then the Chiefs
are at thirteen to one plus thirteen hundred. Here's the thing, Simon.
Normally those teams you feel really confident like you could
see it, it would make sense. I think they're all
(36:25):
suspect in a way. The one I actually feel most
confident about is the Chiefs at thirteen to one.
Speaker 2 (36:32):
Yeah, before all this hype went on with the Rams.
If you looked before, it was all really close. All
these teams were like eight to one. The Ravens, the Rams.
Speaker 3 (36:42):
The Bills. They're all tied now.
Speaker 2 (36:43):
People know, in my position, I only bet teams who
have won Super Bowls before. I know it sounds stupid, people,
I get it, but it's just the way the league is.
It's all culture, it's offer and off, it's all ownership.
All that stuff matters so much. And just you've been
there before and you've won it. Dodds if you doing
it again, I'll go way high. You've been there before
and you've lost, your odds go way down, just as
(37:05):
Vikings fans and Bills fans right they've I think they've
both been to four Super Bowls, never won one.
Speaker 3 (37:09):
It's just whatever it is. If you haven't been invity
to the party, it's hard to get there.
Speaker 2 (37:13):
And I love the Bills. I love the Bills prospects
out for the season. I wouldn't put them in my
round robin. If I was you, chef, yeah, I acrilege.
I just wouldn't do it.
Speaker 1 (37:23):
I don't feel comfortable with it at all. All these
teams to me, like the Rams feel overhyped. The Ravens
have a new head coach, the Bills have a new
head coach, and something feels a little bit off. I'm
not going to do the Seahawks because I don't think
they're going to repeat. I don't like any of these
teams in my round robin except for Kansas City.
Speaker 3 (37:40):
Well wait then, I'll give you my exact does. Later
you'll like that better.
Speaker 1 (37:43):
We'll go to your exactors then, because by the way,
after Kansas City, it's the Niners, the Lions, the Chargers,
the Eagles. You know what I would do right now,
here's what I would do. I would do Eagles Chiefs.
That's what I would do. A Super Bowl match above
Eagles Chiefs. I want you to tell me about what
you think of that when we get to your exact
(38:06):
dos and all that kind of stuff.
Speaker 3 (38:08):
Locked in Chad, that that that's one of the plays,
is it really? Yeah? Of course?
Speaker 1 (38:13):
Oh my god, all right, I'm writing that I'm making
some notes right now as we speak, All right, Eagles
Chiefs Super Bowl matchup, number one seed in each conference.
Let's start with the NFC. The Rams plus three hundred
the Seahawks looks like it's plus plus five seventy five
(38:35):
Lions plus seven hundred Eagles plus eight hundred Packers plus
eight fifty. Dude, Howie is just it's like the whole
It's like he's playing possum. I know he doesn't set
these odds, but the dudes playing possum. If there's a
team prime to bounce back right now, is it not
(38:56):
the Eagles, just especially.
Speaker 2 (38:59):
When you look at all the different divisions right like
you think about the NFC West brutal, you think of
the NFC North brutal. Yes, the Eagles East might improve,
but there's not a single defense that entire division that
scares you. Like the Cowies not have a defense, Giants
don't have a great defense. Watch doesn't have a great defense.
Even if the Eagles do take a step back with AJ,
I think there's so much bs last year and they
(39:21):
still were almost the two seed, the one seed will
be in grasped. Like Chad's saying, at plus eight hundred,
that's that's a really good value. I much rather make
that that that touched Seattle or the Rams like that.
Speaker 3 (39:32):
Just I know last year obviously they were both fight
for the one seed.
Speaker 2 (39:35):
These teams tend to cannibalize themselves, right, and you've seen
that time, Like in your own division, the Bears, they
they basically won that second seed, won your division on
like the last day of the year, like they just
all these things had to break right for them to
get that division. So just looking at on paper, I
agree with you. It's just the the AFC is the
same exact thing here we're gonna talk about. But I
(39:57):
went in top the touch ones, just like Seattle last year.
I think out at this point last year of fifteen
to one to be the one seed. Take the long
shots to people. Don't take the chalk everyone. We're too
focused on what happened last year rather than one might.
Speaker 1 (40:08):
Be happening always. Yeah, So you like the Eagles, there's
anyone else in there that you think is worth any
value if they.
Speaker 3 (40:18):
Only have one.
Speaker 2 (40:19):
I just thought the Eagles, out of everyone that jumped
out to me, they are the best odds. Like you
could do the Bucks at twenty five to one, like
that's crazy odds. But it's just we've seen it, Baker,
he takes hits. I can't see him playing a full season.
That you need to play a full season to get
the one seed.
Speaker 1 (40:33):
All right, let's talk about the AFC. Then, what are
you looking at?
Speaker 3 (40:37):
I mean, right away the top it's business usual.
Speaker 2 (40:41):
It's Ravens Bill's Chiefs, which I thought was really funny
by the sports books, just because you know, I think
the Charger are still favorites to win the division, but.
Speaker 3 (40:50):
The Chiefs are better odds to be the one seed.
Speaker 2 (40:52):
Just shows like professional money, how it dictates these markets
and where they think the value is at. And you know,
for me, those top guys have no value. Now you
can look at Houston their next one up at ten
to one. Yeah, still wouldn't do it, because right away
it jumped out to me was Cincinnati Cincinnaty's eleven to one.
Speaker 1 (41:10):
Interesting.
Speaker 2 (41:11):
Yeah, I know I'm about the biggest Zach Taylor guy,
but I look at that team where they they've improved defensively,
Like that's all I really asked for, is them going
pre defensively. I think the general public's trying to see
the nerds are trying to see what I saw last year,
which is those sacks. Blindly baiting blaming that Bengals offensive
line was foolish. It was they were not this bad
offensive line. That's Oh, this why Drie Joe brought to succeed.
(41:34):
No Joe board to succeed because he holds on the
ball too long, he takes unnecessary hits. And it's been
following in his whole career because he had that bad
offensive lines.
Speaker 3 (41:42):
He had to do try to do too much. But
I think coming in this year, when someone goes and say, hey,
you had the number one.
Speaker 2 (41:46):
Most time in pat and when we were when you
drop back to pass in the pocket in the league, like,
that's not made up metric. That's a real metch between
you and Joe Flaco. You need to figure it out
because Joe flack Woo didn't get hurt. Joe Flack your
ten year senior. He took some hits, but he was
obviously would throw the ball to dirt. He didn't take
those unecessary hits constantly, which is Joe needs to work on.
(42:08):
But them and the Ravens, they're not that much different.
And the fact that the Ravens are the number one
favorite to be the number one seed, and the Bengals
are down here eleven to one. My model has them
literally neck and neck. So just going base off values,
I have them both at plus six hundred. That means
I'm getting in a free plus five hundred right now
in this Bengals team. So, like again, I'm not the
(42:28):
biggest Bengals believer. My model jumps out to that. It's
like I have to take notice and say, Okay, I
might be a little too hard on Joe Burrow and
Zach Taylor. This is good. This is a good number.
This is something you need to bet. So I did
bet at twelve to one. I've been at eleven oh one.
I would keep taking it until it drops down to
blow ten to one. I think it's a good value
right now in this Bengals team.
Speaker 3 (42:46):
I like it.
Speaker 1 (42:47):
I like it a lot. I was going to ask
you about the Bengals in their playoffs, and I didn't
like the numbers. I think like to make it their
minus two twenty five or something like that, which just
feels to me too bloated. But I like this opportunity
on the Bengals at eleven to one because I agree
with you I think we did see that the issues
for Joe Burrow last year were him holding the ball
(43:08):
too long, and I think that started to become a
message too, that became sort of a narrative. Oh wait
a second, maybe it's not all on their offensive line.
And I do think also they focused on defense and
improved their defense a little bit. So they're sneaky, they're quiet,
They're not getting a lot of conversation. Like all the
conversation is about, you know, the Ravens and a new coach,
(43:30):
or Patrick Mahomes coming back, or you know, the trade
of Miles Garrett to the Rams and will Aaron Donald
come back. Not a ton of conversation right now about
the Cincinnati Bengals. All right, we've reached the point of
the show where I do You've teased this a couple
of times. You got some exotic NFL playoff bets.
Speaker 2 (43:51):
This one will be my first one, will be my
Simon says, so right off the top, got to go
back to Chad already knew it.
Speaker 3 (43:59):
Chad read me like a book. Eagles to beat the
Chiefs one hundred to one. Super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (44:05):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (44:06):
So if you're new here, people, that means if I
bet a grand I can win one hundred K on
that bet. But you're like, that will never happen, Chad,
Chad knows. We know. Two years ago, your buddy Sibon
here put it around ten to fifteen K. A bunch
of different matchups, and the biggest one I lean into
was Eagles versus the Chiefs matchup, and I basically bet
(44:28):
it was like five K to win three hundred k. People, So,
I know it sounds crazy. You're like, this will never happen.
Now I'm getting the better odds now. I only need
to bet three thousand dollars to win three hundred k.
So I just it just shows where two years two,
three years ago, the Eagles and the Chiefs were just
so much more hyped. We're getting even better odds now.
I'm telling you these teams from those two years ago
no different.
Speaker 3 (44:48):
In my model. These are just as good as teams.
It's all about health, that's all football is.
Speaker 2 (44:52):
That's why we want to bet these crazy odds because
we need a lot of luck divisus to get there.
Speaker 3 (44:57):
We need health. Both these teams stay healthy.
Speaker 2 (44:59):
I think they're both top two, top three teams in
their respected conferences. So right there, jumped out, if you
want to do the flip side the Chiefs to beat
the Eagles. Same thing at hard Rock one hundred to one.
We just talked about the Bengals. I like people, no,
I like betting repeat Super Bowls and.
Speaker 3 (45:17):
It happens.
Speaker 2 (45:17):
It just I mean, it sounds crazy, but every year
it happens. Patriots Seahawks repeat Super Bowl matchup, like these
things that the NFL is so cyclical, it's so repeatable.
The same Bengals to beat the Rams one hundred to one.
Speaker 3 (45:31):
I just I get. I'm looking at hundred and one
bets the Rams.
Speaker 2 (45:34):
You really can't find good odds on them, but to
fade them, to have them losing Super you can get
some pretty good odds. So that was one hundred and
twenty to one. It's now dropped down one hundred and
one Bengals over the Rams in Super Bowl. So those
are exact those you know, if you want to do
three or four of them, but you know, five bucks
on each. They're just really fun bets to come back
to in the playoffs where it's easy to hedge, right
(45:55):
if you if you want to hedge the NFC Championship
and want to hedge the AFC Championship Game have such
crazy odds, you're gonna have a lot opportunity to do that.
Speaker 3 (46:02):
So that's why I like nick these type of bets.
Speaker 1 (46:04):
Listen, I owe you a chad choice, and I was
going to do the Bears to miss the playoffs, and like,
I can't do that. Like at the end of the day,
I can't have one of my season long bets be
against the team that I am going to be living
and dying with all season long. I can't emotionally hedge
(46:26):
a season long But I think you really got me
on the Saints. So my chad choice is going to
be the New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs at
plus two hundred. I like the situation with the South.
I like a little bit of regression from the Panthers
and their schedule. I think we liked what we saw
(46:48):
from Kellen Moore and Tyler Shock last year. So I'm
going with the Saints' chad choice plus two hundred to
make the playoffs. What do you think of that? I
always like feedback.
Speaker 2 (47:01):
I love it, and I would say the only only
one I really disagreed was of any of the points
you even gave was your Patriots take where I was
all aboard baiting the Patriots, but just the everyone I
talked to in the Miami organization and the Jets organization
is that four free wins and if they split with
the Bills, that means they have five wins potentially just
in their division. So that's what's so terrifying with them
(47:23):
the Bills, right, I can see either of them winning
that division and obviously being a top seed, just because
they have.
Speaker 3 (47:29):
Potentially four free games this year. Like it just seems
all purposes.
Speaker 2 (47:33):
The Jets really don't want to win this year, and
Miami is right on board with that, like they know
this next upcoming class of quarterbacks it's insane, it's one
of it might be one of the best classes I've
ever seen coming out. We'll see how that happens in
regular season, right with college football, But as we sit
here right now, the Jets, Miami, they are truly trying
to tank and they're being open about it.
Speaker 3 (47:53):
So I was right there with you.
Speaker 2 (47:54):
I was full blown ready to fade this Patriots team.
But the fact that you're bringing an AJ Brown who
was see about his health, but if he's healthy, dead
defense with Drake May hopefully taking that next step. If
you're a Patriots fan, I don't know how they don't
get the ten wins and ten wins we've seen the past.
That's good enough to get to seven to see in
the AFC. So I get where you're coming from. I
wanted to be on the fade the Patriots bandwagon as well.
(48:16):
Chat just at that price. I can't do it for
them to miss the playoffs, all.
Speaker 1 (48:20):
Right, So our Simon says, presented by hard Rock bets
Eagles to beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl at
one hundred to one. Our Chad's Choice, presented by hard
Rock bet New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs at
plus two one hundred. That is our show. Reminder, no
(48:43):
show on Thursday. Samon and I are back on Tuesday.
MLB Midseason Betting with Sean Zarillo. This has been Sharp
or Square part of the Volume podcast network. Watcher listen
on YouTube or Washer Listen on YouTube. Bet shoppers like
this video, subscribe to the channel and download us to Spotify,
Apple Pod wherever you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe,
(49:06):
leave us five stars, say whatever you want, feedback because
it gets until next time.
Speaker 3 (49:10):
Love you and when you look at Kelvin Benjamin Gods.
He's six', five he's two hundred and forty five.
Speaker 1 (49:15):
Pounds he's probably A popeye's biscuit away from being a tight,
end and he has trouble getting separation
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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