January 22, 2026 • 51 mins
Only three games remain in the 2026 NFL Playoffs, with Super Bowl LX looming in San Francisco. To discuss this Sunday's Conference Championships, betting expert Chad Millman is joined by professional sports gambler Simon Hunter to discuss each matchup in an episode sponsored by ZBiotics. Go to https://zbiotics.com/SHARPORSQUARE and use code SHARPORSQUARE at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.
Together hosts provide initial betting picks and predictions for the games, including spreads, totals, and select player props as their free SHARP OR SQUARE PRO FOOTBALL PICK 'EM CONTEST continues at https://sharporsquare.thevolume.com/
On Sunday, gambling action starts with the AFC Championship between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos. Quarterback Bo Nix is now out with a broken ankle, so Denver turns to backup and former Auburn Tiger Jarrett Stidham as a sizable home underdogs. He'll face MVP finalist Drake Maye, who looks to keep the Patriots' incredible Super Bowl dreams alive for Coach of the Year finalist Mike Vrabel.
On Sunday night, the NFC Championship game is a showdown between NFC West foes. The Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks face each other for a third time this season, as quarterback Matthew Stafford comes off an overtime win to play Sam Darnold. Will Darnold see more ghosts in the defensive backfield? Or is he ready to exorcise his demons and take the Seahawks to a special west coast Super Bowl? All their final and official betting picks, all in one fast-paced episode! #Volume
0:00:00 - START
0:08:30 - SHARP CALLS
0:12:10 - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. DENVER BRONCOS
0:29:00 - L.A. RAMS VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
0:42:00 - SIMON BIGGEST BETS OF THE WEEK
-- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by a hard rock bet.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
We are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is
the show that makes the square. Sharper makes the wise
guys pay attention. I am Chadmill.
Speaker 1 (00:12):
I am joined as always by my co host, my companion,
my BFF Mike and Fivedre professional Better Simon Hunter Eto
Simeon Chad.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
How are we doing, dude, I'm a champion.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
So for the past, you know, seventy two hours, I've
pretty much just been watching every video, reading every tweet,
looking at every Instagram post. Last night at dinner, my
wife and I went out and we were talking about
the game and the Indiana game, and she goes, I
(00:47):
feel like you think you were on the field and
you won the game. I'm like, I committed thirty six
years of my life to this team. I'm going to
enjoy it. I'm going to absorb it. I'm going to
live it. I deserve it, my butt. My my son
asked me, like, what did I talk about?
Speaker 2 (01:08):
Like all day? My son likes to ask like, what'd
you guys talk about? What he say? What did he say?
Speaker 1 (01:11):
He likes to get in the into the weeds on
the details and he said, were were talking about with
Matt Andy on on Monday. I'm like, we talked about
Indiana at the game. We talked about Indiana at halftime,
we talked about it. All we did was talk about
are we going to win this game? We're winning this game.
Where we win this game, are we going to be champions?
Speaker 2 (01:29):
That's it.
Speaker 3 (01:31):
I don't know you. I've been enjoying the the old
Fernando Mendoz eclipse, right, Like they're posting clips with him
at Cal, him in high school.
Speaker 1 (01:38):
Oh yeah, well that clip at Cal where the he
got knocked out by a Miami player and it's the
same player he ran over on the weird to the
end zone.
Speaker 3 (01:49):
Yeah, and it's just been great, Like, like again, a
lot of bad things about the Internet, but there are
some great things and this has been one of them
where it's like, you know, these people are pulling up
videos that why would you ever see his high school
recruiting right or him talking about being a Diehart Miami
Kanes fan, and yeah, just too watching him just grow
into a man, right like just I think he talked
(02:09):
this year he put on twenty extra pounds. Yeah, strength
conditioning coach, and I mean you saw that show up
in that run. So yeah, it's uh, it's been fun.
But just like you, I mean, it's NonStop football. The
coaching stuff right now is a professional better. It's probably
been the craziest stuff where not that it's like, Okay,
I'm betting futures based off these coaches. But we talked
(02:32):
last year we were way more confident betting the Patriots
and the Bears futures because we like their head coaching hires.
And it's been really fun hearing guys different opinions and
especially even like locally, just people talking about how the
Eagles can't go to OC right now. Offens Corner and
McDaniels picked the Chargers over Phil Yeah, uh.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
It took different Chargers over a head coaching chap.
Speaker 3 (02:55):
Yeah. When you break it down though, and it's like
do you want do you want to go to Cleveland
where they don't who the quarterbacks, or do you want
to go to La live in Manhattan Beach coach for
three four hours and head back to your pretty POSHK
life at the Manhattan Beach. I get why he made
that choice, but yeah, it's I mean, every year there's
a lot of coaching changes this year just feels so
(03:15):
unique in the sense that you know the big names right,
like the fact that Sean McDermott was fired, Tomlin was fire,
Hoball was fired. Yeah for for just as a better
I thought it would just be all conference championship conversation
this week, and it's been a lot of that, but
a lot of coach talk. It just it's been really
interesting to just how everyone's just so enamored with all
(03:35):
these coaching HighRes. So yeah, I honestly can't get enough
of it. And again, we're not even done yet. All
these teams are still have so many openings. It's it's
pretty well timed.
Speaker 1 (03:43):
Yeah, it's interesting to me that a coach like Brian Flores,
who was interviewing with the Steelers, decided to stay with Minnesota.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
Mike McDaniel, who was.
Speaker 3 (03:52):
In We didn't. He didn't decide that, he just signed.
He did a deal that if he doesn't become a
head coach anywhere, which again is pretty wild, he'll we
all go back the Vikings as their DC, even though
apparently some other teams are off from around five million
more so, you must really love that Vikings organization. They
basically signed a deal that if I do not get
(04:12):
hired by the Steelers or wherever else is the head coach,
I'm coming back through no matter what. Which, yeah, I
think you're alluding to. That's that's a huge deal, like
he is.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
That's a huge deal.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
Mike McDaniel deciding, Eh, I don't want to go coach
in Cleveland like Ben Johnson.
Speaker 3 (04:25):
I don't want to go to Philly either. There's so
much drama on Philly.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
Ben Johnson did this too, where he was pretty close
to taking a head coaching job and then decided it's
not the right spot, right and he waited for the
right money.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
Didn't give him an insane amount of money.
Speaker 1 (04:38):
Well, I don't know, but like at the end of
the day, he decided not to take it. And it's
interesting to me that there are coaches who are not
jumping at the first chance just because it's ahead coaching job,
you know what I mean. They're deciding, all right, I'm
going to take the best opportunity. That's interesting to me,
like that they're trying to control their destiny a little
bit more. And sure, the coordinator payment pay pay scale
(05:00):
was just getting bigger and bigger.
Speaker 3 (05:03):
Fact, if you're Cleveland or Arizona, Like, who do you
find to come there?
Speaker 2 (05:08):
Now?
Speaker 3 (05:08):
You're gonna have to find the the QB coach on
some team on Jacksonville or something to come. It's just
no one with any type of pull is gonna tack
those jobs and those tough divisions.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
It's just not worth it. You can see three years
you're out. Jonathan Gannon had Kyler Murray. Yeah, the guy
who was supposed to be pretty good. It didn't work, right.
I wonder if I'm John Harbaugh, did I pull the
trigger too soon on the Giants? Because wouldn't John Harball
love to go coach the Buffalo Bills right now?
Speaker 3 (05:38):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (05:38):
You know, any candidate if they had known, they could
go get Josh Allen.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
I don't know why Mike Tomlin is jumping off the.
Speaker 1 (05:48):
Couch to convince the Steelers to end the Bills, to
make a deal to get him to be the coach there.
That is an ideal situation for him. Well.
Speaker 3 (05:56):
I don't know if you saw Matt Mitchell going through
it on our social media's, but I think right now
the Bills as desirable as the John might be. We
talk all the time, buddy. It starts at the top
and that owner.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
That was a weird press conference.
Speaker 3 (06:11):
Yeah, as much as we love we've enjoyed these owner interviews,
that man took a blow towards to about six seven
years of really good grace that a lot of fans
have for that Bill's organization. Organization that felt like they'd
been doing it right these last couple of years. And yeah,
like I, like you said, I'm interesting what coaches going
to end up there where? It just seems like a
lot of turmoil, But I think O cool off, Like
(06:32):
you said, that Josh Allen piece, that's the enticing piece.
But to know you have a psychopath owner and potentially
a president of your football operations that's William to three
yarder of the bus at a moment's notice. Not not
the best situation.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
Not a great look for GMS this year.
Speaker 1 (06:48):
Between Andrew Berry in Cleveland, being in Buffalo, Joe Shine
in New York, all of them came out looking like
to any executive of in the wider world, like kind
of easily do to manage up and then through the
(07:08):
underlings under the bus and came out on the other
side looking pretty good to management, you know what I mean.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
Yeah, it honestly, would literally be me and you doing
a pick showing every Monday. I would just come in
and say, well, Chad, I didn't like that pick. That
was your pick, and then you'd being like, well, no, no,
I didn't like that when that was your pick, And
I mean that's what I felt like. It was just
straight vickery, and it's like, no, I'm not the one
that screwed this up, where it's like, dude, you got
to own your mistakes and keep it moving. My god,
(07:34):
that was I just have never seen a team throw
their number one pick or first round pick under the
bus like that. And we'll see what kay On Coleman
wants to do, but it's it's definitely an awkward situation.
Speaker 2 (07:48):
Simon. You and I are BFFs. We don't throw each
other under the bus.
Speaker 3 (07:54):
Sometimes.
Speaker 1 (07:54):
We've been through it. We've been through We've been through
the battles. We've been through the battles. We stayed loyal
to each other, You, me and Matt Mitchell. We came
out on the other side, right, Is that what happened?
This is our Thursday Conference Championship preview episode. We're gonna
narrow down the options, find the five picks we can
agree on in the week, getting harder. Only two games
(08:15):
We're gonna intro way closer. Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube,
Apple Pods, Spotify. Let's get this thing going every week.
We're gonna give it our picks every week. Simon's fellow
pro gamblers are gonna give them an earful.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
About those picks.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
We had a lot of debate about these two games
on Tuesday. It's time to summarize those opinions. Special Championship
weekend edition of Sharp Calls Hal answer this phone, all right,
rain range telephone range.
Speaker 3 (08:49):
Somebody said, maybe want to do in Yeah, well I'll
start with the game at the pros aren't too split
on right. I give away a little bit the hand
on Tuesday, which I love this Broncos team, and what
I thought was gonna happen did happen. Right. If you
were lucky enough to get the six, congrats here. Legally,
I don't think we ever got above the five and
a half, and that number is totally gone. Like I'm
(09:13):
looking right now, every book is basically four and a half.
There's a couple still holding that five. But you just
do the pro jun coming on this side and yeah,
for professionals I've talked to I know some guys right
that have positions on the Patriots, and sure they took
early position to have great numbers. But for big money,
real money, professional money, it is very heavily Denver, which
(09:35):
is making me a little nervous. But we'll get more
into that one and.
Speaker 2 (09:39):
We will discuss some of this.
Speaker 3 (09:41):
Yeah, the over. Obviously, professionals came in very heavy on
this Denver over. It was forty and a half, and
we talked about it. I think the most of them
are the same reason as I do. Right, if this
blizzard of twenty twenty six doesn't touch Colorado and it's
just high twenties, sunny two quarterbacks that can potentially the
ball over a lot, it should move up. And it has. Right,
(10:03):
it's up to forty two and a half. So nice
to see I wasn't totally wrong on my early feelings
about this over. I just I wish I wasn't as gunshot.
I wish I just leaned into it right away on
Tuesday show. And yeah, for the La Seahawks game, this
one is very split. It's it's really split in the
sense about what number can you get here? Right. I
think a lot of pros that I talked about there
(10:24):
was a lot of resistance at the three. I'm still
seeing pros take la at the two and a half.
So it's really interesting where it's very very public. Obviously,
the Seahawks, we knew it was gonna be right. This
is a Rams thing that most people have left for dead.
But I am just shocked the sandwich professional love there
is for the Rams. So that's gonna be a really
fun back and forth as well. And another toll that's
pretty split. Most pros I've talked to, though they lean
(10:46):
towards the Under. Once again, these are the same pros
that like Seattle, so it makes sense if you like Seattle,
you're gonna like you the Under. And if you really
do like the Rams, why would you not expect to
be a shootout, right, That's that's the type of game
you're hoping for for the back of the Rams. So yeah,
for the sharp calls. This week, It's been a lot
of debate about the sides and the totals, but not
so much in that Denver Patriots game that feels very
(11:08):
one sided. Professionally, I love it.
Speaker 1 (11:11):
We're going to have a good conversation because that ram
Seahawks game we talked about a little before we came
on the air, so I'll still a little.
Speaker 2 (11:17):
Bit vexed, all right.
Speaker 1 (11:18):
So we'll be back to our normal Sunday routine, pregame
show in the morning, postgame show after the rams Seahawks game.
These will be our last Sunday shows of the season.
No more long, frightening, dreadful walk up the third floor
steps for me. We're going to do our brass Balls
(11:40):
bet of the week on Sunday. We still weren't quite
decided on where we wanted to land and needed a
little more intel before we wanted to make that pick.
Want to be as confident as possible, So we'll do
that on Sunday, all right, Like I said, Subscribe to
Sharper Square on YouTube subscribing like this video. You can
also subscribe to Sharper Square and Apple Pods, Spotify, etc.
(12:03):
Our contest players reminder, we include sides and totals for
all the games, plus and props.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
This week.
Speaker 1 (12:10):
All right, New eng Land at Denver. The line has
come down. It was five and a half, it's now
four and a half. The totals forty two and a half.
It's gone up in the forty eight hours since you
made this game. Simon says, Look, you set it on Tuesday.
This is all I've seen for forty eight hours. Every
(12:33):
person I talked to, every person I respect in the industry,
they have hammered the Broncos at five and a half
and they felt like the line move in the Broncos
direction from a professional point of view, was just too big,
like they would have had this game Broncos too two
(12:54):
and a half. We talked about this on Tuesday. Moving
in eight points. It's just too much for a quarterback
like bo Nicks, who like averaged six point four yards
per attempt and insurance did him. You have a guy
who has been from statistically a league average starter, not
(13:17):
backup league average starter when you look at his EPA. So, Simon,
I think we're both really comfortable with the with the
Broncos at five and a half. I'm still comfortable at
four and a half. Like you know, four is the
key number here, It's the line of demarcation for me.
So I'm still comfortable with the Broncos here.
Speaker 3 (13:35):
Yeah, I'm just like you. I love it, and like you,
I'm also it's never any amount of positive Denver picks.
Speaker 2 (13:42):
And I now I hit it, now, I hit it.
Speaker 3 (13:46):
Yeah, exactly. That's what's making me a little nervous where
it's like it feels a little bit like pros are
talking down that general broke in, especially people that watch
a lot of game film where it's like, oh, they
don't know, they don't know. I've watched these guys three games.
I've asked preseason games, and I mean, I might have
been Jordan Palmer, it was. It was it was someone
(14:06):
that coaches up quarterbacks who basically went on I don't
know if it was Dan Patrick or richid to Show.
He went on one of those shows and basically said, on
any given day, Sinham is just as good as.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
Drake May and oh Jesus.
Speaker 3 (14:18):
Right, And it's like it's people are going too far
one way. But my favorite thing about football it isn't
every given Sunday can for one day, can he outplay
Drake May who was in a hostile environment on the
road facing the number two scoring defensive football. Yes, like
that that is more realistic than saying he can outplay
the potential MVP of the NFL this season. So yeah,
(14:41):
the back and forth it's been a little tough to digest. Uh,
you know, the numbers. Like I talked about, I don't
want to poop pooh the pitchers. I don't want to
give them respect. I think I talked about a little
bit that Drake may is eight to oh straight up
this season, seven to one against the spread on the road,
he's been the best road quarterback. So as much as
you want to say he struggled with adversity or he
(15:01):
will in this game because he's on the road, I mean, yeah,
it's a soft schedule, but he showed up in those games, right.
It's not cakewalkked when on the road, let alone in Buffalo,
which is what he did. You know, I've been impressed
by what Drake's down the road, but this is a
total different beast, like the playoffs on the road, not
even that a playoff on the road against a team
(15:22):
that is rallying around an injured quarterback. And that's what's
been so oppressive with Devers. Even bout Nick's talking about
his like farewell or whatever his report after he got hurt.
I think he put on Instagram or something just basically
talked about how the whole team is rolling around Steadham
and like it's like his good friend and he believes
in him and all this stuff. It just seems like
(15:42):
and now that it's giving me the Nick Foles vibes,
it kind of is right. It's like a team that's like, well,
no one's counting counting on us anymore. Everyone's going against us.
And you know it's if you're in New England, as
good as you are, it's fair for us to have
questions about your team, right. It is fair to question
you've had an they schedule, it's fair to question that
you face two quarterbacks that have totally melted in the playoffs.
(16:05):
And if Stepham can just play within the Champagne offense,
I do think he can succeed. And you know, looking
at their injury port Chad, they're gonna have Franklin back,
They're gonna have all these receivers back. And you could say, well,
who cares about Franklin. This is a guy that he
had a ton of work, not only in the preseason,
but in a lot of practice. He was a guy
(16:26):
that played a lot of second team reps, which to
me is a big deal. And when you break it down,
you go through their roster Franklin was number two in
their team in touchdowns. He was Sutton at seven, Franklin
had six. So again it's to shove my hand on
liber and props. You have to bet a Franklin touchdown
anytime prop like they've moved it down a little bit.
It did open up plus three fifty, it's come down
a little bit. I think most people have what I have,
(16:48):
which is a ton of info that he's worked a
lot with Franklin these last two years. It's been a
guy that he stays after practice with him and bow
knicks and works on reps and running routes. That's a
real thing, those type of connections. When the bullets start
flying and he's starting to panic, he'll he'll throw in
the coverage to a guy like Franklin, something that he
has a rapport with and trust with. So that was
(17:09):
something that jumped out right away where it's like, Okay,
if me and Chad have to make some type of prop, bet,
I don't imagine I don't mind attacked in Franklin's type
of props of either receptions or is over receiving yards.
He feels like he's gonna be the forgotten man because
we already know Chris Gonzalez is gonna be on Sutton.
They're gonna I'm assuming they'll have Chris Gonzales Sutton who's
been you know, he did have bad drops last week,
(17:31):
but he has been their number one shiver this year.
The Broncos, no doubt about it. So I am leaning
a little bit into Franklin hearing and I saw Dobbins
possibly can come back here, which is a huge deal
that run game. So you know, the injuries, it's brutal,
Abo Nicks, the rest of their team for Denver seems
like it's getting health at the right time. And you know,
(17:51):
the more numbers I dive into defensively, I think they're
gonna be able to give Drake May some real problems.
So yeah, like I keep saying, I'm highly confident you,
but just like highly confident Denver, but just like you.
It feels like every pro I know, everyone I've talked to,
is just.
Speaker 2 (18:06):
Yeah, it's becoming too much. It's like.
Speaker 1 (18:10):
There was the shock of you know, the news the
other day and excuse me and everyone sort of letting
it settle. To your credit, you were on it right
away on Tuesday, as soon as we got off the show.
I bet it at hard Rock back because I was
still in Florida. Better as big as I could and
(18:33):
as my as my system would allow, meaning my internal
gut system, what my stomach can handle.
Speaker 2 (18:42):
But don't forget this Patriots defense.
Speaker 1 (18:46):
They're kind of awesome against the run, So it doesn't
really matter if Dobbin's is back. This is going to
be a Jared'stidham game, like he is going to have
to throw the ball so many times. Sean Payton backup
quarterbacks in his career seventeen and five. He is not
afraid to scheme with backup quarterbacks. He's not afraid to
(19:09):
let loose with backup quarterbacks. And to your point, to
all of the analyst point, the drop off from BOENNICKX
to Stidham is not as dramatic as the point spread
is allowing. I don't think we're betting money line on
the Broncos here. I did take a taste of the
Broncos to win the Super Bowl, because why not when
(19:32):
all of a sudden there's a team in the title
game for the weekend in there eleven to one, twelve
to one, thirteen to one, that's just a rarity. You
might as well take a flyer. But also because their
defense is so elite and Drake May has been so
bad against the rush, against the pass rush the past
(19:53):
few weeks, fumbled six times, ten sacks in the past
two weeks, been dismal against pressure. The Patriots overall have
been worse stopping pressure since Will Campbell came back from
the injury. How many times have we seen on TV
the analyst pointing out Will Campbell just getting bull rushed
by guys into Drake May's face and disrupting his ability
(20:17):
to step in the up in the pocket. So it's
going to be an interesting game. It's a great matchup
defensively for the Broncos, and you know they're going to
be amped and feel like they have to do more
because of the Bonux injury.
Speaker 3 (20:29):
Yeah, poor Will Campbell who's not fully healthy and it
comes back from an injury and then has to go
against two really good defensive lines and like you said,
doesn't get any much easier here. And they honestly haven't
been helping him like a lot of times because they
like to pass it to the running backs at the back.
They don't chip with him, like they're literally leaving on
one on one against guys who you know, even last
week like Will Anderson just had his way with him,
like you said. And you know, for me, I know
(20:52):
it might not mean much to you as much it
means to me, but Dobbins to me is a big deal,
just because he was so important for them this season
and like anytime they needed that thirty three, third and
four they would run it. Where when he got out,
Sean Paynon basically never took out of bo Nex's hands
on those type of places. Yeah, he would just say
what I remether live and die with bow knicks here.
(21:14):
Then Harvey the rookie getting the carrier again, he does trust.
We've seen him lean into him here down the stretch.
But Dobbins, he played ten games for him, he still
led the team in rushing by almost two hudred yards
even though he's been out since Week ten. So he
was really important for them earlier in the season. And
you know, before we move off this one, I just
want to give it out one more time. Like Chad said,
(21:37):
I wouldn't do the money line like I did give
out the Super Bowl future just because that's where the
value is and the books have followed, right, You could
have got thirteen to one, fourteen to one. The best
I can see now is twelve to one. Tops. I'm
seeing a lot. Eleven to one is ten to one.
So the books have reacted right, the money has coming
on that future. Like Chad said on Denver to make
the Super Bowl, but this overtime stat, I'll give it
(21:59):
up one more time check because it is it just isn't.
It's just what we talk about, right, the wear and
tearing these guys bodies in the playoffs. In the history
of the playoffs, I should say, or since two thousand
and two, teams to play in overtime and then have
a game obviously the next week in the playoffs are
just six and thirteen straight up. Since twenty fifteen, they
(22:23):
are one to four against it spread, losing by fifteen
points per game, zero to five straight up. So you know,
not the best for the Broncos. But at least for
them is they have the rest, right, they have extended
rest because they play on the Saturday, So hope they
won't affect them as much as the next time we're
at about to talk about this Rams team. But yeah,
I'm like you, I did not bet the Denvers money
(22:46):
I just simply bet Super Bowl futures. And it's interesting too,
the look ahead lines, they were nine and a half eight,
so the Seahawks were nine a half favorites, and I
leave the Rams are eight and a half favorites over
the Denver Broncos. Both those lines well have come down.
So I know it's people won't get it. That why
professionals are just hammering this Denver team. It's just you're
(23:07):
always looking for these opportunities of teams to win Super Bowls,
let alone not the quarterback. And we've had a We've
not that we haven't had one in a while, But
the last one I can really think of is Denver
with Peyton Manning. And this feels a lot like it, right,
Like that Patriots team with Brady They might have been
a three point favorite heaving in Denver because no one
(23:27):
believed in Peyton Manning, right, and I know he was
a neot along the time, but he threw for two
touchdowns in that game. Like they they won that game
with just great dominant defense. I think it's a little
bit of that here. So Patriots historically have never won
in Denver in the playoffs in the career. They're own
four straight up own four against the spread, and you
think about all those great Brady teams. Whatever it was
(23:50):
that was is he just had the bad mojo a
mile high. And we talk all the time that thin air.
It does get to you eventually, right And you know, Denver,
you know they're up ten points and a half against
the Bills. But in the second half you did see
it when Bonick were scrambling the Bills guys were sucking
win like that's that's a real thing. So I'm interested
(24:11):
how this game goes in the sense that if it
is a Dobbins game where you can lean on the
run the second half and they can wear out this
Patriots defense, I do think that's a real thing, this
Broncos team. So yeah, I hope everyone grabbed it. If
you haven't grabbed the number, and the best you can
get us four and a half. Still don't mind that
number either. I told you, I really think this numbers
should be in three and a half by kickoff. We'll
see the Pros do with this one. I could see
(24:32):
them still coming in heavy. Maybe this does just three
and a half. So you want to grab the Broncos
now out, I'd grab the five or four and a
half if you still can.
Speaker 2 (24:40):
The one thing I would say about Dobbins.
Speaker 1 (24:42):
If it's not Dobbins, Jared Stidham might throw the ball
thirty five times, because even in overtime, Sean Payton only
ran the ball eleven times. So we know what we're
going to get from Sean Payton. He's going to put
the ball on the quarterback's head and he's going to
let it let it ride if it's not someone that
he really trusts in the backfield.
Speaker 2 (25:02):
To carry them ball. One more thing about Sean.
Speaker 1 (25:06):
Payton when he's a field goal dog or more in
his career sixty six percent against the spread. So really
it's like we are betting against that trend about overtime,
but everything else is in the direction of betting on
the Broncos for.
Speaker 3 (25:24):
The total Sunday. I think, I don't know if Chad's
with me on it, but I'm all the over. I'm
just having to bet. As heavy it comes Sunday morning,
I'll have a much stronger opinion on Brosers right, and
that's my sure. I like it. They could get an
arctic blast. It could be eight degrees at kickoff for
all week.
Speaker 1 (25:44):
The props that are going to be listed in this
In this game for the contest, Drake may passing touchdowns
one and a half, Jared Stidham interceptions a half.
Speaker 2 (25:54):
So those will be the props that are available in
the contest.
Speaker 3 (25:57):
I like that. I'm over, yes do I yeah a lot? Actually, man,
that's probably real chalky of us. But right away when
you read that, it's like that, I know it seems weird.
Real gracious prop to give to a guy making his
first start in two years.
Speaker 1 (26:11):
Yeah, I'm putting on my glass assignment because we got
a new sponsor and I want to make sure I
get it exactly right. We got the three biggest games
of football remain and like I did down in Miami,
it's going to be a memorable time this weekend. See
my friends, my neighbors, have some laughs, have a few drinks,
(26:35):
But the next morning, I don't bounce back like I
used to.
Speaker 2 (26:39):
And I'm a.
Speaker 1 (26:39):
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I love my mornings. If I have to choose between
a great night or a great morning, I'm choosing morning.
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O got it this morning? Did my workout feel great?
(28:41):
Mornings are better when you feel better. Los Angeles Rams
the Seattle Seahawks. It's minus two and a half. The
totals forty six and a half. I think you and
I are split on this game. I haven't bet it yet,
but I keep looking at the Rams and thinking the
only thing that is in the way of the Rams
is when Sean mcvagh makes bad decisions in the middle
(29:04):
of the game. You look back at that Bears game
and his game plan, which he's talked about, was atrocious,
Like it's mind boggling. He barely ran the heavy packages
which the Bears can't stop. He barely ran the ball,
which the Bears couldn't stop. The only three times they
really ran the ball, they scored touchdowns. I mentioned on Tuesday,
like I worry about these moments in the game where
(29:28):
McVeigh and Stafford seem to have these lapses. McVeigh makes
some questionable decisions, Stafford can't find his rhythm. But in
those two games against the Seahawks, including Week sixteen, they've
been dominant. So I got a lot of stats, I
(29:48):
got a lot of thoughts. I want to share them,
but first I want to give you a chance to respond,
because I want to make sure that my bias for
the Rams is not moving me into a bad place.
Speaker 3 (30:06):
Yeah, and this is my fear of the Rams is
it's a it's a sharp trap. It's just everything about
it is a sharp trap. Like why wouldn't you take
them as a dog, especially when you just like you said,
if you just go blindly off the two games this year,
the Rams won their first meeting twenty one to nineteen
and didn't get to cover, which again we that haunted
us because we had them the contest where right when.
Speaker 1 (30:28):
The seven the whole game, all right, they were winning
that whole game like that was a They dominated that game,
absolutely dominated that game.
Speaker 3 (30:38):
And like, to me, this is the peak though, this
is like we talked about, this is peak Rams. This
is Rams right when they're basically just on and in
sane ron of being the best team in football. Right,
And the next time they play, I think it was
the nineteenth of December, they lose without DeVante Adams by
one point thirty eight to thirty seven, just insane game
(31:01):
over time.
Speaker 1 (31:02):
Gained five hundred yards against the best defense and didn't
have DeVante Adams or Kevin Dotson.
Speaker 3 (31:08):
But the they had their own injuries in that game.
They lost two starting corners and I think they lost
the safety as well.
Speaker 2 (31:13):
But and they didn't have a left tackle, right.
Speaker 3 (31:16):
So it's like, I can't fault you for taking the
points to your Chad, because all these games margins, we
just said it was one and two. Yeah, yeah, you're
getting two and a half. Just blindly playing the numbers game.
It's like, okay, if they play this game a thousand times,
I agree with Chad, Like, if you're just fifty to fifty,
it feels like more often than that you will be
right on the Rams side. That's what the number is
kind of telling you here. But I'm gonna keep giving
(31:38):
out the numbers and I'm gonna try banging the people's heads.
The NFL did an absolute job on this Rams team,
Like they've They've already made it really hard for these
wildcard teams to make a run. That's why we haven't
had one in a while. I think the last time
we had was game I'm trying to think back, was.
Speaker 2 (31:55):
It Kansas City? Were they a wildcard.
Speaker 3 (31:57):
Team now because they always won their division? Or the
charge is always yeah, it's just again, it's been a
long time. We've not had it since the changing of
the one seed, right, since the two seed plays a
seventh seed and the one seeds only team with a bye,
we've not had a wild card team make a run,
which again shows you more how important that bye week is.
Where every year feels like the team that has a
(32:17):
bye week usually makes a Super Bowl. I know it
didnt happen last year, but it's been happening the years before,
and those Rams team were walking right into it. I
just talked about they're on rest disadvantage. They played on
a Sunday against a team that played on a Saturday. Okay,
let's just look at the numbers blindly. Look at those
numbers in the playoff history teams and those rest disavantagh
so team they played an extra day and they're all
(32:41):
and they put an overtime game. They are one in
eight straight up in this exact spot in the history
of the playoffs, three and six against the spread, which
I guess is a little benefits reviewing the Rams. The
one outright win, just can Chad remember the one outright
win on a team with the rest is probably not
It was the Bears over the Saints and six seven.
(33:01):
So it's been a long time, Like it's just been
a very long time since the team has played an
overtime game, had shorter rests. We're able to go on
the road against a higher seed and win a game.
It's just I mean, think about that. It's really impossible
to stack against it. So can they find a way? Yeah,
we just talked about like Stafford's been here before. This
(33:23):
man has gone to Super Bowls. It's funny enough for
me if this if they were a favorite here on
the Rams, JAD, I'd be much more confident. I'd give
you those numbers as a favorite. Stafford McVeigh. They went
out right every time. Like when they're a favorite, they
just always win in the playoffs. Stafford's never lost as
a favorite. He's five to zero straight up in his
career as a favorite. Best Mark of any quarterback in
(33:45):
NFL history. So it's telling you, it's telling them by
the books. Right, they opened this at one and a half.
The pros betted up. The resistance was photo three. The
pros have hit this back on the other side. Right,
there's tons of pros on the Rams side and they're
still hitting the two and a half. But like I've said,
there's some very heavy and resistance from these pros on
this SAX team. Like there's a reason this number hasn't
(34:06):
been bet that I've been hoping. I've been hoping I
could get under the two because, like Chad, I do
think this number could be very close, very close type
of game. But when I just look at this matchup,
you know, I would have a much more confidence if
I had reports of Sam Donald no longer an issue
practicing full this whole week. He's been limited there. They
basically have him on. I think it was like a
(34:28):
rep of like ten to twenty throws rest and then
maybe another ten to twenty throws in practice. It's like, Okay,
that's that's not something I want to be hearing about
a quarterback. That we expect this to be a game
where there's points, Right, I just more often than that.
There should be points of this game. So you know,
like you, I'm having a tough time with this one
(34:48):
with the total on the side, where I was definitely
more confident on Tuesday with the seaux, I still am confident.
I just I can't believe this is a legit lingering
issue for Sam Donald. Like he threw seventeen times in
that game. You would think, you know that he didn't
take any hits like he'd he would be much better
this week, And it's like, Okay, that was a serious,
serious injury. They're they're not letting out because to be
(35:11):
lim me to him in this week, that just shows
what he's going through. So I totally get you're coming
from on the on the LA side, and like I said,
it's hard for me to go against him. I just
then more of I look at this one. The more
I dive into, it's like, can they overcome the injuries
their offensive line? Can they overcome the injuries to their secondary?
Of this Rams team? And you know that Bears team,
(35:31):
it felt like they were running it down their throats
check they really felt like they were moving in. They
just felt like they were so much bigger than this
Rams D line and looking at the weight to spread.
See it's the same exact thing here like this, this
is a big old line for this. The Seattle team
on the flip side, their D tackles talked about they
have two all pros. I mean on that de tackle line,
(35:54):
Like Stafford's going to have pressure up the middle something
he is not facing these players the Bears.
Speaker 1 (36:00):
That's what kills Yeah, that's what kills Stafford.
Speaker 2 (36:04):
It's also what kills Donald.
Speaker 1 (36:06):
Like the Rams have not had a hard time getting
pressure against Donald, whether he's been with the Seahawks or
with the Vikings. Don't forget Like in these last three
games he's thrown something like eleven interceptions against this Rams defense.
It's the defense that has his number literally, So.
Speaker 2 (36:27):
It's tricky. It's just tricky.
Speaker 3 (36:30):
No, it's really hard. And I just I'm trying to
lean into the rest in the rest because I do
think it's such an important key that the general plulk
does overlook. They just think these guys, you know, they're
grown men, How bad bad beat up can they be?
But it's like you're talking to Rams and that has
not had a bye week. They've been playing playoff games
since week ten or eleven, like every game they've had
(36:52):
to win because the Seahawks team they had to keep paid. Yeah,
they had no days off, they had no rest weeks,
and the Seahawks they did it. They got the one see,
they got the bye week and they got the easy
competition last week. So, like I said, if if Sam
Darner was fully healthy, I'd be feeling the same way
I feel about Denvery, I'd be pounding the table with
the Seaowks team. They're being undervalued aby the market, but
(37:12):
this number feels right by the market price. So it's like,
I can't I can't tell you you're getting crazy value
on the Sioks team. Really not. You might be getting
half a point of value. That's nothing to go too
crazy about.
Speaker 1 (37:23):
How many games, simon, have the Rams lost this season
by more than three points?
Speaker 3 (37:30):
The only one I got to think of is that
Eagles flute cover.
Speaker 1 (37:32):
We had Eagles flute cover the walk off block field goal.
Speaker 2 (37:36):
That's it.
Speaker 1 (37:37):
Yeah, we're not We're not going to get a three
in the contest like it's going to be two and
a half.
Speaker 2 (37:42):
It's there's no doubt about it. So we're gonna have
a hard decision.
Speaker 1 (37:46):
But if this line gets to three at any point,
I would highly recommend people are trying to pay attention
to this.
Speaker 2 (37:54):
This is how the wise guys do it.
Speaker 1 (37:56):
They're not resting, They're not like, oh, I'll check it
again in an hour like they they are figuring out
ways to make sure if that line ever gets to three,
they are taking the Rams here. It's kind of what
I'm waiting on is I'm hoping to get the Rams
at plus three, lean into those those stats from the
year ago to play in every game they're in it,
(38:17):
even if they're losing it.
Speaker 2 (38:20):
But it's hard.
Speaker 1 (38:21):
I mean, the Rams going into that Week sixteen game,
they're the team everybody thought was going to the super Bowl,
and I don't know that they're still not that team
since they lost that game in very flukish ways. They
were up in that game thirty to fourteen, thirty to fourteen,
and then that's when she heat ran that return back
(38:45):
for a touchdown, and that's when they had the fluky
two point conversion, and that's when they lost in overtime
after they were up in overtime on another two point conversion.
Like that game cost them the rest they needed at
the playoff seating. It cost them the bye week. Now
they're in Seattle playing for a nation for a NFC
title on the road instead of at home.
Speaker 3 (39:08):
Yeah, and just once again, if you're just blindly betting
this stuff, you should be blindly betting Denver and you
should be blindly betting the Seahawks. And if you want
to play, it's super safe, you can go with the
money line. But it's like I'm saying, it's the Rams
are an impossible spot. If you're betting the Rams, you
are betting on a twenty five chance of winning type
of spot. That's how bad the spot is. And again
(39:29):
it's all about the rest. And this is their third
straight road game, giving those numbers, third trade road game.
If you're the underdog, nine and twenty eight straight up,
so twenty four percent historically.
Speaker 2 (39:42):
So here's the question.
Speaker 3 (39:43):
It's impossible. It's an impossibly brutal spot for the Rams.
Can they do it? Of course, I'm just telling you
in your lifetime the next fifty years, if you continually
bet the Rams side, you're the sucker they're getting well.
Speaker 1 (39:55):
So that's that's the answer to my question, which is,
as professionals, which do you give give more credence to
the spot or the matchup if all things are equal.
If the matchup is equal, let's say the matchup is
a little bit of an advantage for the Rams even
(40:18):
but the spot is horrendous.
Speaker 2 (40:20):
Which do you give more weight.
Speaker 3 (40:21):
To this time of year? Always the spot just because
I can't get over and how important those numbers are
where It's just like we dive so much into all
the matchups, all this other stuff. For the end of
the day, it's like, can these guys' bodies hold up
heading to the fourth quarter? Like you still have your
legs underneath you? Because these guys again, well Devontae Adams
(40:44):
still have his legs. Yeah, he set out for three
four weeks with an injury. I'm talking about their left
guard who hasn't playing now for twenty straight weeks. Like,
I just think about all that he's gone through. Now
he's going against the possibly the best d line of
football who's rested. So that's what I mean. That's why
Trick keep trying to bring up these numbers because we're
trying to find an edge here. I'm trying to find
(41:04):
something to lead people to one side, and it's like
like we're talking about here the numbers are so close
on the field, the matchups so close, you have to
go find other areas where where is the advantage for
which team? The rest advantage is so heavily skewed to
the Seahawks team. That's why I just I keep beating
people over the head with it, because it's like, I'm
like Chad right away, I thought I'd be over the
Rams team. The more I've dove into it, it's like, Man,
(41:25):
this this Seahawks team, the NFL is really just like
the Patriots, right, the Patriots at easy schedule. The Seahawks
they earned that right to have an easy run in
the playoffs, right, They earned that right for that one
seed to have this rest advantage, and they're going to
exploit it here, which to me is such a big deal,
such a such.
Speaker 1 (41:43):
An interesting game, such an interesting game. I don't know
what we're going to do in the contest at this point.
I think it's going to be a late Sunday selection. Simon,
what's your biggest bet here this week?
Speaker 2 (41:55):
Pull up pants and be a man.
Speaker 3 (41:58):
Yeah, Denver, no doubt. That's That's all my money so
far as I've been into it.
Speaker 2 (42:03):
Denver was the syber area of the NFL. The Broncos
was so terrible that the team was exiled by the
media and the players became prisoners in Pro Football's wasteland.
Speaker 3 (42:14):
You know, I touched the Seahawks at two and a half,
but I'm just trying to be patient, hoping the pros
do come in and maybe I do get one and
a half. And people are like, wouldn't that scary? Off? Honestly, wouldn't.
Like the playoffs. It's so unique where there's only two games.
It's like, you know, heavy respective money coming on one side.
It's not that scary in the sense that if I'm
getting at Ben Rumer, I believe in that side, I'll
(42:35):
take it. And if anything, if you're betting huge, huge
money here, I would just play it saf like I
did with the Patriots. I just took the money line
last week with the Patriots. I do the same with
the Seahawks here, Like, could this game land on the one? Yeah?
I just told you they played two games this year
and it's been a two point and a one point
victory by both teams. Like it's split between them. No
one would be shocked if this number lands run on
(42:56):
the two. Right, We've talked all the time. Two has
become such a sharp number in the lands on it
all the time. So if you're betting actually heavy money
here and you're you're a little scared off by the
spread new issue doing the moneyless yos, that's probably end
up doing. And uh yeah for for the you know,
sides and totals for first halfs and different things like that.
You know, I've leaned into a little bit of the
(43:19):
Patriots first half just in case Stidham has a little
bit of the Jitters. And we've seen Drake May you know,
he has in the playoffs played much better in the
second half, but as a team, the Patriots have played
much better, I think in the first half. So yeah,
if you if you don't want to take a sider
or a total that we're given out for full game.
I don't hate taking Patriots first half, but obviously to
me that that's one tenth of what I'm betting on
(43:41):
Denver full game.
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Speaker 2 (45:25):
It's time to do some sharp versus square. Well, before
we get to that, Oh yeah.
Speaker 3 (45:29):
Sure, could I talk about the gambling loss tax bill
that's going on right now? Of course, so unfortunately, if
you haven't been keeping up for it, if we're gonna
have to pay losses on our our we're gonna to
pay tax on our losses upcoming year. And they've they've
been trying to pass bills now to go against it.
And basically the one hundred percent gambling loss tax deduction
(45:52):
was blocked today unfortunately by the House Committee, which does suck,
but it's it's something that if you're into this stuff
and like me, you care about because it does affect
our livelihood. The block without the vote issue, it usually
isn't policy, it's usually the process. So it's not totally
dead here. The bill is not totally dead in my opinion.
(46:13):
If both parties support it, maybe we could find another way.
But it's it's not something you can totally give up on. Yet.
It did hit the floor today, right it did not
go through.
Speaker 1 (46:21):
But.
Speaker 3 (46:23):
Obviously it's something very important to me, not just professional betters,
poker players, everybody that has a life in this world,
the general public. I'm telling you next year, come tax season,
you are going to lose your mind. We have to
pay ten percent on your loss. So I just want
to keep people up to there. I know we have
cou people ask about it. Unfortunately, it didn't didn't work
out today, but something I will keep bringing up and
(46:44):
keep monitoring as we go along here. Right now, I
think the policy. They don't like the way it was written.
Like I said, it's not dead, people, it's just it
didn't go through today obviously, and it didn't get didn't
get shut down either. It's just it's kind of been limbo.
Speaker 2 (46:56):
Look, there's a lot going on in the betting world.
Speaker 1 (46:59):
We try to be pretty focused during the season just
because there's so much to talk about with who we're
going to bet on, and we know that's an exciting
part of why people are coming to the show. But
between what's happening with prediction markets, what's happening legally with
laws like this, what's happening with increased scrutiny on game fixing,
(47:25):
the scandals in college basketball, There's so much going on
in this space that is fascinating. Obviously, I've been working
on a book about this for a little for about
a year, so I have a lot of thoughts on
this and a lot of details and a lot of research,
and once we get to the off season, we're going
to dig in on a lot of these a lot
of these other topics. Sharp versus Square, Simon, I feel
(47:50):
like I know what you want, and you've earned the
right to go first and make the first selection.
Speaker 3 (47:56):
I do, But if you want to go ahead to head,
I'm also open to that. If you want to go
rams I guess see, I'm open to it. People know
I love Denver.
Speaker 1 (48:03):
Yeah, I'm just having such a hard time with the Rams,
Like I don't know if I'm committed to them yet,
Like I.
Speaker 3 (48:09):
Would you want to take Denver, then then I take the Seahawks.
If you're feeling good about.
Speaker 2 (48:12):
Denver, Okay, I'll take Denver. I mean, if you feel
that good.
Speaker 1 (48:15):
But this also puts us in a in a box
because what if comes Sunday we decide Wait a second,
we're taking the Rams, and then I don't care.
Speaker 3 (48:23):
First square, that'd be on me. But again, I like,
I'm comfortable enough to put the Seahawks here. I know
you're waiving a little bit of the totals, so it's like,
you know, I'm not going to force you. I mean,
if you want to feel good about the total of
doctor Nick, he's on the over in this Rams Seahawks game.
Speaker 2 (48:39):
Oh that's interesting.
Speaker 1 (48:41):
I feel like I want to take Troy Franklin anytime
touchdown prov.
Speaker 3 (48:49):
For Sharper square Maybe all right, that's ballsy. If you're
doing that, then I'm going to take Denver. I've said it, like, Denver,
make your decision.
Speaker 2 (49:01):
Let's go. Jared's did him over pass attempts.
Speaker 3 (49:05):
For your sharper square. Yeah, you don't even have a
number that you're just gonna throw it out there.
Speaker 2 (49:10):
Thirty one and a half, all right, all.
Speaker 3 (49:13):
Right, I'm taking I'm taking Denver plus four and a half. Okay,
doubling down.
Speaker 2 (49:18):
All right, Denver plus four and a half. What's our parlay?
Speaker 3 (49:24):
I mean, I like where you're at. I mean like
we're both at with a Franklin. Anytime touchdown like a
Denver plus four and a half, anytime touchdown with Franklin,
that's gonna be crazy good odds. I can, I can
put that in real quick, in the hard.
Speaker 2 (49:38):
I love that idea.
Speaker 3 (49:40):
But that's a really fun parlay for the first game.
And if you don't trust Franklin like us Jesus are
your friends, you don't have to do the whole thing
because you don't want to pay minus one twenty. But
if you want to take Denver up three points seven
and a half, take the total down three points a
thirty nine and a half, don't hate that either. As
a fun parlay. It's you're getting two key number. You're
getting the seven a half, you're getting under the forty.
(50:03):
Both both are fun to me for parlays for that game.
Speaker 2 (50:06):
Let's do the Franklin.
Speaker 3 (50:07):
Yeah, I love Franklin. I love that you're in on it.
It's it's a funny little thing when someone broke it
down to me. It's like, Hey, I've been watching a
lot of cinem tape here and it's a lot of
Franklin in these tapes, and it's like, hey, that's a
that's a fun point the guys. That's more six touchdown
receptions this year, so he's clearly a guy they look
for in the red zone.
Speaker 2 (50:25):
All right.
Speaker 1 (50:25):
This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network.
We will be back on Sunday morning with the official
picks our Brass Balls so much more.
Speaker 2 (50:33):
Watch or listen on YouTube a Sharper Square like this video.
Subscribe to the channel.
Speaker 1 (50:37):
Also download with some Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get
your pods.
Speaker 2 (50:40):
Rate review, subscribe. We was five stars.
Speaker 1 (50:42):
Say whatever you want. Feedback is the gift until next time.
Speaker 2 (50:46):
Love you. The road to the super Bowl is like
a mythic quest.
Speaker 3 (50:51):
It's a demanding journey, an adventure that creates heroes and
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by a hard rock bet.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
We are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is
the show that makes the square. Sharper makes the wise
guys pay attention. I am Chadmill.
Speaker 1 (00:12):
I am joined as always by my co host, my companion,
my BFF Mike and Fivedre professional Better Simon Hunter Eto
Simeon Chad.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
How are we doing, dude, I'm a champion.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
So for the past, you know, seventy two hours, I've
pretty much just been watching every video, reading every tweet,
looking at every Instagram post. Last night at dinner, my
wife and I went out and we were talking about
the game and the Indiana game, and she goes, I
(00:47):
feel like you think you were on the field and
you won the game. I'm like, I committed thirty six
years of my life to this team. I'm going to
enjoy it. I'm going to absorb it. I'm going to
live it. I deserve it, my butt. My my son
asked me, like, what did I talk about?
Speaker 2 (01:08):
Like all day? My son likes to ask like, what'd
you guys talk about? What he say? What did he say?
Speaker 1 (01:11):
He likes to get in the into the weeds on
the details and he said, were were talking about with
Matt Andy on on Monday. I'm like, we talked about
Indiana at the game. We talked about Indiana at halftime,
we talked about it. All we did was talk about
are we going to win this game? We're winning this game.
Where we win this game, are we going to be champions?
Speaker 2 (01:29):
That's it.
Speaker 3 (01:31):
I don't know you. I've been enjoying the the old
Fernando Mendoz eclipse, right, Like they're posting clips with him
at Cal, him in high school.
Speaker 1 (01:38):
Oh yeah, well that clip at Cal where the he
got knocked out by a Miami player and it's the
same player he ran over on the weird to the
end zone.
Speaker 3 (01:49):
Yeah, and it's just been great, Like, like again, a
lot of bad things about the Internet, but there are
some great things and this has been one of them
where it's like, you know, these people are pulling up
videos that why would you ever see his high school
recruiting right or him talking about being a Diehart Miami
Kanes fan, and yeah, just too watching him just grow
into a man, right like just I think he talked
(02:09):
this year he put on twenty extra pounds. Yeah, strength
conditioning coach, and I mean you saw that show up
in that run. So yeah, it's uh, it's been fun.
But just like you, I mean, it's NonStop football. The
coaching stuff right now is a professional better. It's probably
been the craziest stuff where not that it's like, Okay,
I'm betting futures based off these coaches. But we talked
(02:32):
last year we were way more confident betting the Patriots
and the Bears futures because we like their head coaching hires.
And it's been really fun hearing guys different opinions and
especially even like locally, just people talking about how the
Eagles can't go to OC right now. Offens Corner and
McDaniels picked the Chargers over Phil Yeah, uh.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
It took different Chargers over a head coaching chap.
Speaker 3 (02:55):
Yeah. When you break it down though, and it's like
do you want do you want to go to Cleveland
where they don't who the quarterbacks, or do you want
to go to La live in Manhattan Beach coach for
three four hours and head back to your pretty POSHK
life at the Manhattan Beach. I get why he made
that choice, but yeah, it's I mean, every year there's
a lot of coaching changes this year just feels so
(03:15):
unique in the sense that you know the big names right,
like the fact that Sean McDermott was fired, Tomlin was fire,
Hoball was fired. Yeah for for just as a better
I thought it would just be all conference championship conversation
this week, and it's been a lot of that, but
a lot of coach talk. It just it's been really
interesting to just how everyone's just so enamored with all
(03:35):
these coaching HighRes. So yeah, I honestly can't get enough
of it. And again, we're not even done yet. All
these teams are still have so many openings. It's it's
pretty well timed.
Speaker 1 (03:43):
Yeah, it's interesting to me that a coach like Brian Flores,
who was interviewing with the Steelers, decided to stay with Minnesota.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
Mike McDaniel, who was.
Speaker 3 (03:52):
In We didn't. He didn't decide that, he just signed.
He did a deal that if he doesn't become a
head coach anywhere, which again is pretty wild, he'll we
all go back the Vikings as their DC, even though
apparently some other teams are off from around five million
more so, you must really love that Vikings organization. They
basically signed a deal that if I do not get
(04:12):
hired by the Steelers or wherever else is the head coach,
I'm coming back through no matter what. Which, yeah, I
think you're alluding to. That's that's a huge deal, like
he is.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
That's a huge deal.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
Mike McDaniel deciding, Eh, I don't want to go coach
in Cleveland like Ben Johnson.
Speaker 3 (04:25):
I don't want to go to Philly either. There's so
much drama on Philly.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
Ben Johnson did this too, where he was pretty close
to taking a head coaching job and then decided it's
not the right spot, right and he waited for the
right money.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
Didn't give him an insane amount of money.
Speaker 1 (04:38):
Well, I don't know, but like at the end of
the day, he decided not to take it. And it's
interesting to me that there are coaches who are not
jumping at the first chance just because it's ahead coaching job,
you know what I mean. They're deciding, all right, I'm
going to take the best opportunity. That's interesting to me,
like that they're trying to control their destiny a little
bit more. And sure, the coordinator payment pay pay scale
(05:00):
was just getting bigger and bigger.
Speaker 3 (05:03):
Fact, if you're Cleveland or Arizona, Like, who do you
find to come there?
Speaker 2 (05:08):
Now?
Speaker 3 (05:08):
You're gonna have to find the the QB coach on
some team on Jacksonville or something to come. It's just
no one with any type of pull is gonna tack
those jobs and those tough divisions.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
It's just not worth it. You can see three years
you're out. Jonathan Gannon had Kyler Murray. Yeah, the guy
who was supposed to be pretty good. It didn't work, right.
I wonder if I'm John Harbaugh, did I pull the
trigger too soon on the Giants? Because wouldn't John Harball
love to go coach the Buffalo Bills right now?
Speaker 3 (05:38):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (05:38):
You know, any candidate if they had known, they could
go get Josh Allen.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
I don't know why Mike Tomlin is jumping off the.
Speaker 1 (05:48):
Couch to convince the Steelers to end the Bills, to
make a deal to get him to be the coach there.
That is an ideal situation for him. Well.
Speaker 3 (05:56):
I don't know if you saw Matt Mitchell going through
it on our social media's, but I think right now
the Bills as desirable as the John might be. We
talk all the time, buddy. It starts at the top
and that owner.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
That was a weird press conference.
Speaker 3 (06:11):
Yeah, as much as we love we've enjoyed these owner interviews,
that man took a blow towards to about six seven
years of really good grace that a lot of fans
have for that Bill's organization. Organization that felt like they'd
been doing it right these last couple of years. And yeah,
like I, like you said, I'm interesting what coaches going
to end up there where? It just seems like a
lot of turmoil, But I think O cool off, Like
(06:32):
you said, that Josh Allen piece, that's the enticing piece.
But to know you have a psychopath owner and potentially
a president of your football operations that's William to three
yarder of the bus at a moment's notice. Not not
the best situation.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
Not a great look for GMS this year.
Speaker 1 (06:48):
Between Andrew Berry in Cleveland, being in Buffalo, Joe Shine
in New York, all of them came out looking like
to any executive of in the wider world, like kind
of easily do to manage up and then through the
(07:08):
underlings under the bus and came out on the other
side looking pretty good to management, you know what I mean.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
Yeah, it honestly, would literally be me and you doing
a pick showing every Monday. I would just come in
and say, well, Chad, I didn't like that pick. That
was your pick, and then you'd being like, well, no, no,
I didn't like that when that was your pick, And
I mean that's what I felt like. It was just
straight vickery, and it's like, no, I'm not the one
that screwed this up, where it's like, dude, you got
to own your mistakes and keep it moving. My god,
(07:34):
that was I just have never seen a team throw
their number one pick or first round pick under the
bus like that. And we'll see what kay On Coleman
wants to do, but it's it's definitely an awkward situation.
Speaker 2 (07:48):
Simon. You and I are BFFs. We don't throw each
other under the bus.
Speaker 3 (07:54):
Sometimes.
Speaker 1 (07:54):
We've been through it. We've been through We've been through
the battles. We've been through the battles. We stayed loyal
to each other, You, me and Matt Mitchell. We came
out on the other side, right, Is that what happened?
This is our Thursday Conference Championship preview episode. We're gonna
narrow down the options, find the five picks we can
agree on in the week, getting harder. Only two games
(08:15):
We're gonna intro way closer. Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube,
Apple Pods, Spotify. Let's get this thing going every week.
We're gonna give it our picks every week. Simon's fellow
pro gamblers are gonna give them an earful.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
About those picks.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
We had a lot of debate about these two games
on Tuesday. It's time to summarize those opinions. Special Championship
weekend edition of Sharp Calls Hal answer this phone, all right,
rain range telephone range.
Speaker 3 (08:49):
Somebody said, maybe want to do in Yeah, well I'll
start with the game at the pros aren't too split
on right. I give away a little bit the hand
on Tuesday, which I love this Broncos team, and what
I thought was gonna happen did happen. Right. If you
were lucky enough to get the six, congrats here. Legally,
I don't think we ever got above the five and
a half, and that number is totally gone. Like I'm
(09:13):
looking right now, every book is basically four and a half.
There's a couple still holding that five. But you just
do the pro jun coming on this side and yeah,
for professionals I've talked to I know some guys right
that have positions on the Patriots, and sure they took
early position to have great numbers. But for big money,
real money, professional money, it is very heavily Denver, which
(09:35):
is making me a little nervous. But we'll get more
into that one and.
Speaker 2 (09:39):
We will discuss some of this.
Speaker 3 (09:41):
Yeah, the over. Obviously, professionals came in very heavy on
this Denver over. It was forty and a half, and
we talked about it. I think the most of them
are the same reason as I do. Right, if this
blizzard of twenty twenty six doesn't touch Colorado and it's
just high twenties, sunny two quarterbacks that can potentially the
ball over a lot, it should move up. And it has. Right,
(10:03):
it's up to forty two and a half. So nice
to see I wasn't totally wrong on my early feelings
about this over. I just I wish I wasn't as gunshot.
I wish I just leaned into it right away on
Tuesday show. And yeah, for the La Seahawks game, this
one is very split. It's it's really split in the
sense about what number can you get here? Right. I
think a lot of pros that I talked about there
(10:24):
was a lot of resistance at the three. I'm still
seeing pros take la at the two and a half.
So it's really interesting where it's very very public. Obviously,
the Seahawks, we knew it was gonna be right. This
is a Rams thing that most people have left for dead.
But I am just shocked the sandwich professional love there
is for the Rams. So that's gonna be a really
fun back and forth as well. And another toll that's
pretty split. Most pros I've talked to, though they lean
(10:46):
towards the Under. Once again, these are the same pros
that like Seattle, so it makes sense if you like Seattle,
you're gonna like you the Under. And if you really
do like the Rams, why would you not expect to
be a shootout, right, That's that's the type of game
you're hoping for for the back of the Rams. So yeah,
for the sharp calls. This week, It's been a lot
of debate about the sides and the totals, but not
so much in that Denver Patriots game that feels very
(11:08):
one sided. Professionally, I love it.
Speaker 1 (11:11):
We're going to have a good conversation because that ram
Seahawks game we talked about a little before we came
on the air, so I'll still a little.
Speaker 2 (11:17):
Bit vexed, all right.
Speaker 1 (11:18):
So we'll be back to our normal Sunday routine, pregame
show in the morning, postgame show after the rams Seahawks game.
These will be our last Sunday shows of the season.
No more long, frightening, dreadful walk up the third floor
steps for me. We're going to do our brass Balls
(11:40):
bet of the week on Sunday. We still weren't quite
decided on where we wanted to land and needed a
little more intel before we wanted to make that pick.
Want to be as confident as possible, So we'll do
that on Sunday, all right, Like I said, Subscribe to
Sharper Square on YouTube subscribing like this video. You can
also subscribe to Sharper Square and Apple Pods, Spotify, etc.
(12:03):
Our contest players reminder, we include sides and totals for
all the games, plus and props.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
This week.
Speaker 1 (12:10):
All right, New eng Land at Denver. The line has
come down. It was five and a half, it's now
four and a half. The totals forty two and a half.
It's gone up in the forty eight hours since you
made this game. Simon says, Look, you set it on Tuesday.
This is all I've seen for forty eight hours. Every
(12:33):
person I talked to, every person I respect in the industry,
they have hammered the Broncos at five and a half
and they felt like the line move in the Broncos
direction from a professional point of view, was just too big,
like they would have had this game Broncos too two
(12:54):
and a half. We talked about this on Tuesday. Moving
in eight points. It's just too much for a quarterback
like bo Nicks, who like averaged six point four yards
per attempt and insurance did him. You have a guy
who has been from statistically a league average starter, not
(13:17):
backup league average starter when you look at his EPA. So, Simon,
I think we're both really comfortable with the with the
Broncos at five and a half. I'm still comfortable at
four and a half. Like you know, four is the
key number here, It's the line of demarcation for me.
So I'm still comfortable with the Broncos here.
Speaker 3 (13:35):
Yeah, I'm just like you. I love it, and like you,
I'm also it's never any amount of positive Denver picks.
Speaker 2 (13:42):
And I now I hit it, now, I hit it.
Speaker 3 (13:46):
Yeah, exactly. That's what's making me a little nervous where
it's like it feels a little bit like pros are
talking down that general broke in, especially people that watch
a lot of game film where it's like, oh, they
don't know, they don't know. I've watched these guys three games.
I've asked preseason games, and I mean, I might have
been Jordan Palmer, it was. It was it was someone
(14:06):
that coaches up quarterbacks who basically went on I don't
know if it was Dan Patrick or richid to Show.
He went on one of those shows and basically said, on
any given day, Sinham is just as good as.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
Drake May and oh Jesus.
Speaker 3 (14:18):
Right, And it's like it's people are going too far
one way. But my favorite thing about football it isn't
every given Sunday can for one day, can he outplay
Drake May who was in a hostile environment on the
road facing the number two scoring defensive football. Yes, like
that that is more realistic than saying he can outplay
the potential MVP of the NFL this season. So yeah,
(14:41):
the back and forth it's been a little tough to digest. Uh,
you know, the numbers. Like I talked about, I don't
want to poop pooh the pitchers. I don't want to
give them respect. I think I talked about a little
bit that Drake may is eight to oh straight up
this season, seven to one against the spread on the road,
he's been the best road quarterback. So as much as
you want to say he struggled with adversity or he
(15:01):
will in this game because he's on the road, I mean, yeah,
it's a soft schedule, but he showed up in those games, right.
It's not cakewalkked when on the road, let alone in Buffalo,
which is what he did. You know, I've been impressed
by what Drake's down the road, but this is a
total different beast, like the playoffs on the road, not
even that a playoff on the road against a team
(15:22):
that is rallying around an injured quarterback. And that's what's
been so oppressive with Devers. Even bout Nick's talking about
his like farewell or whatever his report after he got hurt.
I think he put on Instagram or something just basically
talked about how the whole team is rolling around Steadham
and like it's like his good friend and he believes
in him and all this stuff. It just seems like
(15:42):
and now that it's giving me the Nick Foles vibes,
it kind of is right. It's like a team that's like, well,
no one's counting counting on us anymore. Everyone's going against us.
And you know it's if you're in New England, as
good as you are, it's fair for us to have
questions about your team, right. It is fair to question
you've had an they schedule, it's fair to question that
you face two quarterbacks that have totally melted in the playoffs.
(16:05):
And if Stepham can just play within the Champagne offense,
I do think he can succeed. And you know, looking
at their injury port Chad, they're gonna have Franklin back,
They're gonna have all these receivers back. And you could say, well,
who cares about Franklin. This is a guy that he
had a ton of work, not only in the preseason,
but in a lot of practice. He was a guy
(16:26):
that played a lot of second team reps, which to
me is a big deal. And when you break it down,
you go through their roster Franklin was number two in
their team in touchdowns. He was Sutton at seven, Franklin
had six. So again it's to shove my hand on
liber and props. You have to bet a Franklin touchdown
anytime prop like they've moved it down a little bit.
It did open up plus three fifty, it's come down
a little bit. I think most people have what I have,
(16:48):
which is a ton of info that he's worked a
lot with Franklin these last two years. It's been a
guy that he stays after practice with him and bow
knicks and works on reps and running routes. That's a
real thing, those type of connections. When the bullets start
flying and he's starting to panic, he'll he'll throw in
the coverage to a guy like Franklin, something that he
has a rapport with and trust with. So that was
(17:09):
something that jumped out right away where it's like, Okay,
if me and Chad have to make some type of prop, bet,
I don't imagine I don't mind attacked in Franklin's type
of props of either receptions or is over receiving yards.
He feels like he's gonna be the forgotten man because
we already know Chris Gonzalez is gonna be on Sutton.
They're gonna I'm assuming they'll have Chris Gonzales Sutton who's
been you know, he did have bad drops last week,
(17:31):
but he has been their number one shiver this year.
The Broncos, no doubt about it. So I am leaning
a little bit into Franklin hearing and I saw Dobbins
possibly can come back here, which is a huge deal
that run game. So you know, the injuries, it's brutal,
Abo Nicks, the rest of their team for Denver seems
like it's getting health at the right time. And you know,
(17:51):
the more numbers I dive into defensively, I think they're
gonna be able to give Drake May some real problems.
So yeah, like I keep saying, I'm highly confident you,
but just like highly confident Denver, but just like you.
It feels like every pro I know, everyone I've talked to,
is just.
Speaker 2 (18:06):
Yeah, it's becoming too much. It's like.
Speaker 1 (18:10):
There was the shock of you know, the news the
other day and excuse me and everyone sort of letting
it settle. To your credit, you were on it right
away on Tuesday, as soon as we got off the show.
I bet it at hard Rock back because I was
still in Florida. Better as big as I could and
(18:33):
as my as my system would allow, meaning my internal
gut system, what my stomach can handle.
Speaker 2 (18:42):
But don't forget this Patriots defense.
Speaker 1 (18:46):
They're kind of awesome against the run, So it doesn't
really matter if Dobbin's is back. This is going to
be a Jared'stidham game, like he is going to have
to throw the ball so many times. Sean Payton backup
quarterbacks in his career seventeen and five. He is not
afraid to scheme with backup quarterbacks. He's not afraid to
(19:09):
let loose with backup quarterbacks. And to your point, to
all of the analyst point, the drop off from BOENNICKX
to Stidham is not as dramatic as the point spread
is allowing. I don't think we're betting money line on
the Broncos here. I did take a taste of the
Broncos to win the Super Bowl, because why not when
(19:32):
all of a sudden there's a team in the title
game for the weekend in there eleven to one, twelve
to one, thirteen to one, that's just a rarity. You
might as well take a flyer. But also because their
defense is so elite and Drake May has been so
bad against the rush, against the pass rush the past
(19:53):
few weeks, fumbled six times, ten sacks in the past
two weeks, been dismal against pressure. The Patriots overall have
been worse stopping pressure since Will Campbell came back from
the injury. How many times have we seen on TV
the analyst pointing out Will Campbell just getting bull rushed
by guys into Drake May's face and disrupting his ability
(20:17):
to step in the up in the pocket. So it's
going to be an interesting game. It's a great matchup
defensively for the Broncos, and you know they're going to
be amped and feel like they have to do more
because of the Bonux injury.
Speaker 3 (20:29):
Yeah, poor Will Campbell who's not fully healthy and it
comes back from an injury and then has to go
against two really good defensive lines and like you said,
doesn't get any much easier here. And they honestly haven't
been helping him like a lot of times because they
like to pass it to the running backs at the back.
They don't chip with him, like they're literally leaving on
one on one against guys who you know, even last
week like Will Anderson just had his way with him,
like you said. And you know, for me, I know
(20:52):
it might not mean much to you as much it
means to me, but Dobbins to me is a big deal,
just because he was so important for them this season
and like anytime they needed that thirty three, third and
four they would run it. Where when he got out,
Sean Paynon basically never took out of bo Nex's hands
on those type of places. Yeah, he would just say
what I remether live and die with bow knicks here.
(21:14):
Then Harvey the rookie getting the carrier again, he does trust.
We've seen him lean into him here down the stretch.
But Dobbins, he played ten games for him, he still
led the team in rushing by almost two hudred yards
even though he's been out since Week ten. So he
was really important for them earlier in the season. And
you know, before we move off this one, I just
want to give it out one more time. Like Chad said,
(21:37):
I wouldn't do the money line like I did give
out the Super Bowl future just because that's where the
value is and the books have followed, right, You could
have got thirteen to one, fourteen to one. The best
I can see now is twelve to one. Tops. I'm
seeing a lot. Eleven to one is ten to one.
So the books have reacted right, the money has coming
on that future. Like Chad said on Denver to make
the Super Bowl, but this overtime stat, I'll give it
(21:59):
up one more time check because it is it just isn't.
It's just what we talk about, right, the wear and
tearing these guys bodies in the playoffs. In the history
of the playoffs, I should say, or since two thousand
and two, teams to play in overtime and then have
a game obviously the next week in the playoffs are
just six and thirteen straight up. Since twenty fifteen, they
(22:23):
are one to four against it spread, losing by fifteen
points per game, zero to five straight up. So you know,
not the best for the Broncos. But at least for
them is they have the rest, right, they have extended
rest because they play on the Saturday, So hope they
won't affect them as much as the next time we're
at about to talk about this Rams team. But yeah,
I'm like you, I did not bet the Denvers money
(22:46):
I just simply bet Super Bowl futures. And it's interesting too,
the look ahead lines, they were nine and a half eight,
so the Seahawks were nine a half favorites, and I
leave the Rams are eight and a half favorites over
the Denver Broncos. Both those lines well have come down.
So I know it's people won't get it. That why
professionals are just hammering this Denver team. It's just you're
(23:07):
always looking for these opportunities of teams to win Super Bowls,
let alone not the quarterback. And we've had a We've
not that we haven't had one in a while, But
the last one I can really think of is Denver
with Peyton Manning. And this feels a lot like it, right,
Like that Patriots team with Brady They might have been
a three point favorite heaving in Denver because no one
(23:27):
believed in Peyton Manning, right, and I know he was
a neot along the time, but he threw for two
touchdowns in that game. Like they they won that game
with just great dominant defense. I think it's a little
bit of that here. So Patriots historically have never won
in Denver in the playoffs in the career. They're own
four straight up own four against the spread, and you
think about all those great Brady teams. Whatever it was
(23:50):
that was is he just had the bad mojo a
mile high. And we talk all the time that thin air.
It does get to you eventually, right And you know, Denver,
you know they're up ten points and a half against
the Bills. But in the second half you did see
it when Bonick were scrambling the Bills guys were sucking
win like that's that's a real thing. So I'm interested
(24:11):
how this game goes in the sense that if it
is a Dobbins game where you can lean on the
run the second half and they can wear out this
Patriots defense, I do think that's a real thing, this
Broncos team. So yeah, I hope everyone grabbed it. If
you haven't grabbed the number, and the best you can
get us four and a half. Still don't mind that
number either. I told you, I really think this numbers
should be in three and a half by kickoff. We'll
see the Pros do with this one. I could see
(24:32):
them still coming in heavy. Maybe this does just three
and a half. So you want to grab the Broncos
now out, I'd grab the five or four and a
half if you still can.
Speaker 2 (24:40):
The one thing I would say about Dobbins.
Speaker 1 (24:42):
If it's not Dobbins, Jared Stidham might throw the ball
thirty five times, because even in overtime, Sean Payton only
ran the ball eleven times. So we know what we're
going to get from Sean Payton. He's going to put
the ball on the quarterback's head and he's going to
let it let it ride if it's not someone that
he really trusts in the backfield.
Speaker 2 (25:02):
To carry them ball. One more thing about Sean.
Speaker 1 (25:06):
Payton when he's a field goal dog or more in
his career sixty six percent against the spread. So really
it's like we are betting against that trend about overtime,
but everything else is in the direction of betting on
the Broncos for.
Speaker 3 (25:24):
The total Sunday. I think, I don't know if Chad's
with me on it, but I'm all the over. I'm
just having to bet. As heavy it comes Sunday morning,
I'll have a much stronger opinion on Brosers right, and
that's my sure. I like it. They could get an
arctic blast. It could be eight degrees at kickoff for
all week.
Speaker 1 (25:44):
The props that are going to be listed in this
In this game for the contest, Drake may passing touchdowns
one and a half, Jared Stidham interceptions a half.
Speaker 2 (25:54):
So those will be the props that are available in
the contest.
Speaker 3 (25:57):
I like that. I'm over, yes do I yeah a lot? Actually, man,
that's probably real chalky of us. But right away when
you read that, it's like that, I know it seems weird.
Real gracious prop to give to a guy making his
first start in two years.
Speaker 1 (26:11):
Yeah, I'm putting on my glass assignment because we got
a new sponsor and I want to make sure I
get it exactly right. We got the three biggest games
of football remain and like I did down in Miami,
it's going to be a memorable time this weekend. See
my friends, my neighbors, have some laughs, have a few drinks,
(26:35):
But the next morning, I don't bounce back like I
used to.
Speaker 2 (26:39):
And I'm a.
Speaker 1 (26:39):
Huge morning guy. You guys know, I'm a huge morning guy.
I love my mornings. If I have to choose between
a great night or a great morning, I'm choosing morning.
But that was before I tried pre alcohol zbiotics, pre
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O got it this morning? Did my workout feel great?
(28:41):
Mornings are better when you feel better. Los Angeles Rams
the Seattle Seahawks. It's minus two and a half. The
totals forty six and a half. I think you and
I are split on this game. I haven't bet it yet,
but I keep looking at the Rams and thinking the
only thing that is in the way of the Rams
is when Sean mcvagh makes bad decisions in the middle
(29:04):
of the game. You look back at that Bears game
and his game plan, which he's talked about, was atrocious,
Like it's mind boggling. He barely ran the heavy packages
which the Bears can't stop. He barely ran the ball,
which the Bears couldn't stop. The only three times they
really ran the ball, they scored touchdowns. I mentioned on Tuesday,
like I worry about these moments in the game where
(29:28):
McVeigh and Stafford seem to have these lapses. McVeigh makes
some questionable decisions, Stafford can't find his rhythm. But in
those two games against the Seahawks, including Week sixteen, they've
been dominant. So I got a lot of stats, I
(29:48):
got a lot of thoughts. I want to share them,
but first I want to give you a chance to respond,
because I want to make sure that my bias for
the Rams is not moving me into a bad place.
Speaker 3 (30:06):
Yeah, and this is my fear of the Rams is
it's a it's a sharp trap. It's just everything about
it is a sharp trap. Like why wouldn't you take
them as a dog, especially when you just like you said,
if you just go blindly off the two games this year,
the Rams won their first meeting twenty one to nineteen
and didn't get to cover, which again we that haunted
us because we had them the contest where right when.
Speaker 1 (30:28):
The seven the whole game, all right, they were winning
that whole game like that was a They dominated that game,
absolutely dominated that game.
Speaker 3 (30:38):
And like, to me, this is the peak though, this
is like we talked about, this is peak Rams. This
is Rams right when they're basically just on and in
sane ron of being the best team in football. Right,
And the next time they play, I think it was
the nineteenth of December, they lose without DeVante Adams by
one point thirty eight to thirty seven, just insane game
(31:01):
over time.
Speaker 1 (31:02):
Gained five hundred yards against the best defense and didn't
have DeVante Adams or Kevin Dotson.
Speaker 3 (31:08):
But the they had their own injuries in that game.
They lost two starting corners and I think they lost
the safety as well.
Speaker 2 (31:13):
But and they didn't have a left tackle, right.
Speaker 3 (31:16):
So it's like, I can't fault you for taking the
points to your Chad, because all these games margins, we
just said it was one and two. Yeah, yeah, you're
getting two and a half. Just blindly playing the numbers game.
It's like, okay, if they play this game a thousand times,
I agree with Chad, Like, if you're just fifty to fifty,
it feels like more often than that you will be
right on the Rams side. That's what the number is
kind of telling you here. But I'm gonna keep giving
(31:38):
out the numbers and I'm gonna try banging the people's heads.
The NFL did an absolute job on this Rams team,
Like they've They've already made it really hard for these
wildcard teams to make a run. That's why we haven't
had one in a while. I think the last time
we had was game I'm trying to think back, was.
Speaker 2 (31:55):
It Kansas City? Were they a wildcard.
Speaker 3 (31:57):
Team now because they always won their division? Or the
charge is always yeah, it's just again, it's been a
long time. We've not had it since the changing of
the one seed, right, since the two seed plays a
seventh seed and the one seeds only team with a bye,
we've not had a wild card team make a run,
which again shows you more how important that bye week is.
Where every year feels like the team that has a
(32:17):
bye week usually makes a Super Bowl. I know it
didnt happen last year, but it's been happening the years before,
and those Rams team were walking right into it. I
just talked about they're on rest disadvantage. They played on
a Sunday against a team that played on a Saturday. Okay,
let's just look at the numbers blindly. Look at those
numbers in the playoff history teams and those rest disavantagh
so team they played an extra day and they're all
(32:41):
and they put an overtime game. They are one in
eight straight up in this exact spot in the history
of the playoffs, three and six against the spread, which
I guess is a little benefits reviewing the Rams. The
one outright win, just can Chad remember the one outright
win on a team with the rest is probably not
It was the Bears over the Saints and six seven.
(33:01):
So it's been a long time, Like it's just been
a very long time since the team has played an
overtime game, had shorter rests. We're able to go on
the road against a higher seed and win a game.
It's just I mean, think about that. It's really impossible
to stack against it. So can they find a way? Yeah,
we just talked about like Stafford's been here before. This
(33:23):
man has gone to Super Bowls. It's funny enough for
me if this if they were a favorite here on
the Rams, JAD, I'd be much more confident. I'd give
you those numbers as a favorite. Stafford McVeigh. They went
out right every time. Like when they're a favorite, they
just always win in the playoffs. Stafford's never lost as
a favorite. He's five to zero straight up in his
career as a favorite. Best Mark of any quarterback in
(33:45):
NFL history. So it's telling you, it's telling them by
the books. Right, they opened this at one and a half.
The pros betted up. The resistance was photo three. The
pros have hit this back on the other side. Right,
there's tons of pros on the Rams side and they're
still hitting the two and a half. But like I've said,
there's some very heavy and resistance from these pros on
this SAX team. Like there's a reason this number hasn't
(34:06):
been bet that I've been hoping. I've been hoping I
could get under the two because, like Chad, I do
think this number could be very close, very close type
of game. But when I just look at this matchup,
you know, I would have a much more confidence if
I had reports of Sam Donald no longer an issue
practicing full this whole week. He's been limited there. They
basically have him on. I think it was like a
(34:28):
rep of like ten to twenty throws rest and then
maybe another ten to twenty throws in practice. It's like, Okay,
that's that's not something I want to be hearing about
a quarterback. That we expect this to be a game
where there's points, Right, I just more often than that.
There should be points of this game. So you know,
like you, I'm having a tough time with this one
(34:48):
with the total on the side, where I was definitely
more confident on Tuesday with the seaux, I still am confident.
I just I can't believe this is a legit lingering
issue for Sam Donald. Like he threw seventeen times in
that game. You would think, you know that he didn't
take any hits like he'd he would be much better
this week, And it's like, Okay, that was a serious,
serious injury. They're they're not letting out because to be
(35:11):
lim me to him in this week, that just shows
what he's going through. So I totally get you're coming
from on the on the LA side, and like I said,
it's hard for me to go against him. I just
then more of I look at this one. The more
I dive into, it's like, can they overcome the injuries
their offensive line? Can they overcome the injuries to their secondary?
Of this Rams team? And you know that Bears team,
(35:31):
it felt like they were running it down their throats
check they really felt like they were moving in. They
just felt like they were so much bigger than this
Rams D line and looking at the weight to spread.
See it's the same exact thing here like this, this
is a big old line for this. The Seattle team
on the flip side, their D tackles talked about they
have two all pros. I mean on that de tackle line,
(35:54):
Like Stafford's going to have pressure up the middle something
he is not facing these players the Bears.
Speaker 1 (36:00):
That's what kills Yeah, that's what kills Stafford.
Speaker 2 (36:04):
It's also what kills Donald.
Speaker 1 (36:06):
Like the Rams have not had a hard time getting
pressure against Donald, whether he's been with the Seahawks or
with the Vikings. Don't forget Like in these last three
games he's thrown something like eleven interceptions against this Rams defense.
It's the defense that has his number literally, So.
Speaker 2 (36:27):
It's tricky. It's just tricky.
Speaker 3 (36:30):
No, it's really hard. And I just I'm trying to
lean into the rest in the rest because I do
think it's such an important key that the general plulk
does overlook. They just think these guys, you know, they're
grown men, How bad bad beat up can they be?
But it's like you're talking to Rams and that has
not had a bye week. They've been playing playoff games
since week ten or eleven, like every game they've had
(36:52):
to win because the Seahawks team they had to keep paid. Yeah,
they had no days off, they had no rest weeks,
and the Seahawks they did it. They got the one see,
they got the bye week and they got the easy
competition last week. So, like I said, if if Sam
Darner was fully healthy, I'd be feeling the same way
I feel about Denvery, I'd be pounding the table with
the Seaowks team. They're being undervalued aby the market, but
(37:12):
this number feels right by the market price. So it's like,
I can't I can't tell you you're getting crazy value
on the Sioks team. Really not. You might be getting
half a point of value. That's nothing to go too
crazy about.
Speaker 1 (37:23):
How many games, simon, have the Rams lost this season
by more than three points?
Speaker 3 (37:30):
The only one I got to think of is that
Eagles flute cover.
Speaker 1 (37:32):
We had Eagles flute cover the walk off block field goal.
Speaker 2 (37:36):
That's it.
Speaker 1 (37:37):
Yeah, we're not We're not going to get a three
in the contest like it's going to be two and
a half.
Speaker 2 (37:42):
It's there's no doubt about it. So we're gonna have
a hard decision.
Speaker 1 (37:46):
But if this line gets to three at any point,
I would highly recommend people are trying to pay attention
to this.
Speaker 2 (37:54):
This is how the wise guys do it.
Speaker 1 (37:56):
They're not resting, They're not like, oh, I'll check it
again in an hour like they they are figuring out
ways to make sure if that line ever gets to three,
they are taking the Rams here. It's kind of what
I'm waiting on is I'm hoping to get the Rams
at plus three, lean into those those stats from the
year ago to play in every game they're in it,
(38:17):
even if they're losing it.
Speaker 2 (38:20):
But it's hard.
Speaker 1 (38:21):
I mean, the Rams going into that Week sixteen game,
they're the team everybody thought was going to the super Bowl,
and I don't know that they're still not that team
since they lost that game in very flukish ways. They
were up in that game thirty to fourteen, thirty to fourteen,
and then that's when she heat ran that return back
(38:45):
for a touchdown, and that's when they had the fluky
two point conversion, and that's when they lost in overtime
after they were up in overtime on another two point conversion.
Like that game cost them the rest they needed at
the playoff seating. It cost them the bye week. Now
they're in Seattle playing for a nation for a NFC
title on the road instead of at home.
Speaker 3 (39:08):
Yeah, and just once again, if you're just blindly betting
this stuff, you should be blindly betting Denver and you
should be blindly betting the Seahawks. And if you want
to play, it's super safe, you can go with the
money line. But it's like I'm saying, it's the Rams
are an impossible spot. If you're betting the Rams, you
are betting on a twenty five chance of winning type
of spot. That's how bad the spot is. And again
(39:29):
it's all about the rest. And this is their third
straight road game, giving those numbers, third trade road game.
If you're the underdog, nine and twenty eight straight up,
so twenty four percent historically.
Speaker 2 (39:42):
So here's the question.
Speaker 3 (39:43):
It's impossible. It's an impossibly brutal spot for the Rams.
Can they do it? Of course, I'm just telling you
in your lifetime the next fifty years, if you continually
bet the Rams side, you're the sucker they're getting well.
Speaker 1 (39:55):
So that's that's the answer to my question, which is,
as professionals, which do you give give more credence to
the spot or the matchup if all things are equal.
If the matchup is equal, let's say the matchup is
a little bit of an advantage for the Rams even
(40:18):
but the spot is horrendous.
Speaker 2 (40:20):
Which do you give more weight.
Speaker 3 (40:21):
To this time of year? Always the spot just because
I can't get over and how important those numbers are
where It's just like we dive so much into all
the matchups, all this other stuff. For the end of
the day, it's like, can these guys' bodies hold up
heading to the fourth quarter? Like you still have your
legs underneath you? Because these guys again, well Devontae Adams
(40:44):
still have his legs. Yeah, he set out for three
four weeks with an injury. I'm talking about their left
guard who hasn't playing now for twenty straight weeks. Like,
I just think about all that he's gone through. Now
he's going against the possibly the best d line of
football who's rested. So that's what I mean. That's why
Trick keep trying to bring up these numbers because we're
trying to find an edge here. I'm trying to find
(41:04):
something to lead people to one side, and it's like
like we're talking about here the numbers are so close
on the field, the matchups so close, you have to
go find other areas where where is the advantage for
which team? The rest advantage is so heavily skewed to
the Seahawks team. That's why I just I keep beating
people over the head with it, because it's like, I'm
like Chad right away, I thought I'd be over the
Rams team. The more I've dove into it, it's like, Man,
(41:25):
this this Seahawks team, the NFL is really just like
the Patriots, right, the Patriots at easy schedule. The Seahawks
they earned that right to have an easy run in
the playoffs, right, They earned that right for that one
seed to have this rest advantage, and they're going to
exploit it here, which to me is such a big deal,
such a such.
Speaker 1 (41:43):
An interesting game, such an interesting game. I don't know
what we're going to do in the contest at this point.
I think it's going to be a late Sunday selection. Simon,
what's your biggest bet here this week?
Speaker 2 (41:55):
Pull up pants and be a man.
Speaker 3 (41:58):
Yeah, Denver, no doubt. That's That's all my money so
far as I've been into it.
Speaker 2 (42:03):
Denver was the syber area of the NFL. The Broncos
was so terrible that the team was exiled by the
media and the players became prisoners in Pro Football's wasteland.
Speaker 3 (42:14):
You know, I touched the Seahawks at two and a half,
but I'm just trying to be patient, hoping the pros
do come in and maybe I do get one and
a half. And people are like, wouldn't that scary? Off? Honestly, wouldn't.
Like the playoffs. It's so unique where there's only two games.
It's like, you know, heavy respective money coming on one side.
It's not that scary in the sense that if I'm
getting at Ben Rumer, I believe in that side, I'll
(42:35):
take it. And if anything, if you're betting huge, huge
money here, I would just play it saf like I
did with the Patriots. I just took the money line
last week with the Patriots. I do the same with
the Seahawks here, Like, could this game land on the one? Yeah?
I just told you they played two games this year
and it's been a two point and a one point
victory by both teams. Like it's split between them. No
one would be shocked if this number lands run on
(42:56):
the two. Right, We've talked all the time. Two has
become such a sharp number in the lands on it
all the time. So if you're betting actually heavy money
here and you're you're a little scared off by the
spread new issue doing the moneyless yos, that's probably end
up doing. And uh yeah for for the you know,
sides and totals for first halfs and different things like that.
You know, I've leaned into a little bit of the
(43:19):
Patriots first half just in case Stidham has a little
bit of the Jitters. And we've seen Drake May you know,
he has in the playoffs played much better in the
second half, but as a team, the Patriots have played
much better, I think in the first half. So yeah,
if you if you don't want to take a sider
or a total that we're given out for full game.
I don't hate taking Patriots first half, but obviously to
me that that's one tenth of what I'm betting on
(43:41):
Denver full game.
Speaker 1 (43:43):
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Speaker 2 (45:25):
It's time to do some sharp versus square. Well, before
we get to that, Oh yeah.
Speaker 3 (45:29):
Sure, could I talk about the gambling loss tax bill
that's going on right now? Of course, so unfortunately, if
you haven't been keeping up for it, if we're gonna
have to pay losses on our our we're gonna to
pay tax on our losses upcoming year. And they've they've
been trying to pass bills now to go against it.
And basically the one hundred percent gambling loss tax deduction
(45:52):
was blocked today unfortunately by the House Committee, which does suck,
but it's it's something that if you're into this stuff
and like me, you care about because it does affect
our livelihood. The block without the vote issue, it usually
isn't policy, it's usually the process. So it's not totally
dead here. The bill is not totally dead in my opinion.
(46:13):
If both parties support it, maybe we could find another way.
But it's it's not something you can totally give up on. Yet.
It did hit the floor today, right it did not
go through.
Speaker 1 (46:21):
But.
Speaker 3 (46:23):
Obviously it's something very important to me, not just professional betters,
poker players, everybody that has a life in this world,
the general public. I'm telling you next year, come tax season,
you are going to lose your mind. We have to
pay ten percent on your loss. So I just want
to keep people up to there. I know we have
cou people ask about it. Unfortunately, it didn't didn't work
out today, but something I will keep bringing up and
(46:44):
keep monitoring as we go along here. Right now, I
think the policy. They don't like the way it was written.
Like I said, it's not dead, people, it's just it
didn't go through today obviously, and it didn't get didn't
get shut down either. It's just it's kind of been limbo.
Speaker 2 (46:56):
Look, there's a lot going on in the betting world.
Speaker 1 (46:59):
We try to be pretty focused during the season just
because there's so much to talk about with who we're
going to bet on, and we know that's an exciting
part of why people are coming to the show. But
between what's happening with prediction markets, what's happening legally with
laws like this, what's happening with increased scrutiny on game fixing,
(47:25):
the scandals in college basketball, There's so much going on
in this space that is fascinating. Obviously, I've been working
on a book about this for a little for about
a year, so I have a lot of thoughts on
this and a lot of details and a lot of research,
and once we get to the off season, we're going
to dig in on a lot of these a lot
of these other topics. Sharp versus Square, Simon, I feel
(47:50):
like I know what you want, and you've earned the
right to go first and make the first selection.
Speaker 3 (47:56):
I do, But if you want to go ahead to head,
I'm also open to that. If you want to go
rams I guess see, I'm open to it. People know
I love Denver.
Speaker 1 (48:03):
Yeah, I'm just having such a hard time with the Rams,
Like I don't know if I'm committed to them yet,
Like I.
Speaker 3 (48:09):
Would you want to take Denver, then then I take the Seahawks.
If you're feeling good about.
Speaker 2 (48:12):
Denver, Okay, I'll take Denver. I mean, if you feel
that good.
Speaker 1 (48:15):
But this also puts us in a in a box
because what if comes Sunday we decide Wait a second,
we're taking the Rams, and then I don't care.
Speaker 3 (48:23):
First square, that'd be on me. But again, I like,
I'm comfortable enough to put the Seahawks here. I know
you're waiving a little bit of the totals, so it's like,
you know, I'm not going to force you. I mean,
if you want to feel good about the total of
doctor Nick, he's on the over in this Rams Seahawks game.
Speaker 2 (48:39):
Oh that's interesting.
Speaker 1 (48:41):
I feel like I want to take Troy Franklin anytime
touchdown prov.
Speaker 3 (48:49):
For Sharper square Maybe all right, that's ballsy. If you're
doing that, then I'm going to take Denver. I've said it, like, Denver,
make your decision.
Speaker 2 (49:01):
Let's go. Jared's did him over pass attempts.
Speaker 3 (49:05):
For your sharper square. Yeah, you don't even have a
number that you're just gonna throw it out there.
Speaker 2 (49:10):
Thirty one and a half, all right, all.
Speaker 3 (49:13):
Right, I'm taking I'm taking Denver plus four and a half. Okay,
doubling down.
Speaker 2 (49:18):
All right, Denver plus four and a half. What's our parlay?
Speaker 3 (49:24):
I mean, I like where you're at. I mean like
we're both at with a Franklin. Anytime touchdown like a
Denver plus four and a half, anytime touchdown with Franklin,
that's gonna be crazy good odds. I can, I can
put that in real quick, in the hard.
Speaker 2 (49:38):
I love that idea.
Speaker 3 (49:40):
But that's a really fun parlay for the first game.
And if you don't trust Franklin like us Jesus are
your friends, you don't have to do the whole thing
because you don't want to pay minus one twenty. But
if you want to take Denver up three points seven
and a half, take the total down three points a
thirty nine and a half, don't hate that either. As
a fun parlay. It's you're getting two key number. You're
getting the seven a half, you're getting under the forty.
(50:03):
Both both are fun to me for parlays for that game.
Speaker 2 (50:06):
Let's do the Franklin.
Speaker 3 (50:07):
Yeah, I love Franklin. I love that you're in on it.
It's it's a funny little thing when someone broke it
down to me. It's like, Hey, I've been watching a
lot of cinem tape here and it's a lot of
Franklin in these tapes, and it's like, hey, that's a
that's a fun point the guys. That's more six touchdown
receptions this year, so he's clearly a guy they look
for in the red zone.
Speaker 2 (50:25):
All right.
Speaker 1 (50:25):
This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network.
We will be back on Sunday morning with the official
picks our Brass Balls so much more.
Speaker 2 (50:33):
Watch or listen on YouTube a Sharper Square like this video.
Subscribe to the channel.
Speaker 1 (50:37):
Also download with some Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get
your pods.
Speaker 2 (50:40):
Rate review, subscribe. We was five stars.
Speaker 1 (50:42):
Say whatever you want. Feedback is the gift until next time.
Speaker 2 (50:46):
Love you. The road to the super Bowl is like
a mythic quest.
Speaker 3 (50:51):
It's a demanding journey, an adventure that creates heroes and
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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