Sharp or Square - Sharp NFL Playoffs Divisional Bets: Bills-Broncos, Niners-Seahawks, Texans-Patriots, Rams-Bears - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bet. We
are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the
show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise
guys pay attention. I am Chad Mellman. I am joined
as I am for every episode by my co host,
my companion, my campadre professional Better, my bff Simon Hunter. Hello,

(00:26):
Simon Chat.

Speaker 2 (00:28):
How are we doing?

Speaker 1 (00:30):
We're stoked, We're ready, We're locked and loaded. We got uh,
what do we got? We got seventy two hours until
ninety six hours until the Chicago Bears kick off. We're
four days away from the Indiana Hoosiers taken on the
Miami Hurricanes. We got arctic weather in Chicago. As a fan,

(00:57):
all I've done is watch the video, the NFL Films
video they just put out about the Bears comeback. There's
this great, great funny video on Twitter right now by
this guy Mark Morgan, who does a looking back at
the Bears comeback from twenty seventy four. It's freaking hilarious.

(01:17):
I recommend everyone go watch it. It's awesome. And then
we get to do this show together, which is a privilege.
It's our Thursday Wildcard episode, we're going to narrow down
the options on request to find five picks we agree
on for this week. Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube,
Apple Pods, Spotify. After we're done covering the games today,

(01:38):
we have a bonus for everybody. As you all know,
I am heading the hard Rock Stadium for Monday's college
football National Championship game between the Hoosiers and the Hurricanes.
At the end of today's show, we're going to have
two things. One, some really interesting feedback from hard Rock
bet on betting markets for the game. You know, they're
the only legal sportsbook in Florida, so it's interesting to

(02:00):
see what they're getting on this market. We'll share some
of that. We'll also bring on one of Matt Mitchell's
favorite college football betting experts to give us some picks
for the game at the end of the show, So
stay tuned for some college football breakdown for the National
Championship game. All right, let's get into this thing.

Speaker 2 (02:19):
Well, at first, I mean, it skipped over what Tomlin. Tom.

Speaker 3 (02:23):
I know you're so obsessed with your own life, Chad,
but the rest of us, no one gives a fuck
about the Bears or Indiana Hoosiers.

Speaker 2 (02:30):
Tomlin.

Speaker 1 (02:31):
By the way, you're wrong. We're both I am not.
I am right now rooting for both of America's teams,
both of them.

Speaker 2 (02:38):
Again, that all cares about the Hoosiers are Indiana the Bears.
Let's talk Tomlin. It's a fine line between, you know,
drinking wine and squashing greats.

Speaker 3 (02:46):
How did you skip over, Tomlin? Chad Hard You're too excited,
You're too happy. I don't like you got me looking
up what's what's the Rams money line?

Speaker 2 (02:54):
With the Hurricane money line? Right now? You got you
got me making a hate bet. But oh no, I
got to remember. They can't believe they got out of
our guy. Tomlin did, and they did it the smart way.
What we said about horrible.

Speaker 3 (03:05):
I cannot believe they let Horball walk out the door
for no trade. Aspect Tomlin, at least they retained his rights.
Maybe he goes do does TV for a year, or
maybe he takes one meeting in that boardroom and he's like,
my god, I cannot do be with these suits.

Speaker 2 (03:20):
I need to get back to my guys and get
back to the NFL.

Speaker 3 (03:23):
So I mean the Tomlin stuff, I mean, you're obviously
set with your your head coach, but whether nine other
vacancies right now, these everyone's like, oh my god, Tomlin's available. Man,
It's never had a losing season and again, we can
go through the quarterback list, just a ton of trash
and had a winning season every year, so I could.
I was honestly in shock, like my mouth hit the floor.

(03:45):
They let him go, but I think we had heard
a little bit of whispers throughout it, right, he was
a little burned out with the team, the coach, like,
not the coaches, but just in general football, right, nineteen
years is a long time, So yeah, I was just floored.
I can't believe it. Right now, we lost Harball and Tomlin.
It was our bread and butter chat, our favorite matchup
every year, and just like that, it's over.

Speaker 2 (04:07):
Buddy.

Speaker 1 (04:08):
Yeah, I blacked out. You were talking about Tomlin, But
I was really just singing the Indiana Fight song in
my head the whole time. I'm kidding. Yeah, it's we
got a poor one out killing it. You're killing it,
poor one out. A great career for Mike Tomlin. He
has made us so much money. He has made Matt
Mitchell so happy because of all the Tomlin drops. He's

(04:28):
been able to cut over the years. The guy has
been a pillar of consistency.

Speaker 2 (04:33):
Hey man, I don't care how the other thirty one
are doing it.

Speaker 1 (04:37):
And you think about it, since Ben Roethlisberger retired, what
he has done with the Kenny Picketts and the Mason
Rudolph's and obviously the Aaron Rodgers and the Duc Hodges,
and I can't even think of all the mediocre to
bad quarterbacks. And this guy has figured out a way

(04:57):
every single year, in every single game to put his
team in a position to have that voodoo magic that
Tomlin has and get the turnover, get the takeaway, muddy
up the game, be patient. Really just a clinic in coaching.
I continue to not understand why owners, why management would

(05:19):
be anxious to get rid of coaches who have proven
to be winners year after year after year. Same with Harbaugh. Look,
we're seeing the floor has not been let go by
the Packers that are working on getting him an extension.
I think it's the right thing to do. Like you
don't want to like just think there's the grass is
not always greener. There's been so many instances where it

(05:39):
just doesn't work a second time, Like you got a
good coach, Keep the good fucking coach. You think the
Titans wouldn't love to have Mike Vrabel right now? How
stupid and impetuous was that?

Speaker 3 (05:49):
Like you got the guy Harball is already signing with
the Giants. Yeah, even a week later. Like I just again,
the Ravens, they do have a good owner. I'm not
going to crap on their owner. The guy's smart. I
think that was the first time he spoke in.

Speaker 1 (06:01):
Like eighties, seven years and he was great.

Speaker 3 (06:03):
And you know that that to me, Like I told you,
I feel like an emotional decision. Apparently did it via
phone while Harball was driving home. That's that's a story
that came out. So you know the fact that this
man is already signed to potentially be the giants next
head coach. Just again, people we always talk about don't
let emotions stick control and that's Pittsburgh. They look like
the more level headed organization right now compared to the Ravens.

Speaker 1 (06:25):
Look. The Ravens owner's h press conference was great. The
best line was someone asked him about Lamar Jackson having
any power in the and the decision about who the
next coach is going to be. Yeah, and he was like,
I love my players. I'll listen to my players. They

(06:47):
don't have any power. I'm the one with the power.
I make the decision. And it was just stream well,
he said.

Speaker 2 (06:53):
I want to hear everyone's opinions.

Speaker 3 (06:54):
Though, yeah, of course you put that caveat, but I'm
with you at the very any he doubted the eye
and said, no, I got the power.

Speaker 1 (07:01):
That was like, by the way, that's the billionaire mindset,
and that's how every owner thinks, like they do not
worry about the noise that is happening anywhere else. They
own the team. Everyone else is working for them. That's it.
That's the bottom line. Who's going to work for us
this weekend, simon, who's going to work for us? Who's

(07:24):
going to turn our playoffs around? Who's going to make
things go? Every week? We give it our picks every week.
Your fellow professional betters call to give you some feedback.
It's time to summarize those opinions. It's a special divisional
round edition of sharp Call.

Speaker 3 (07:46):
I have to answer this pot all right, rain range
telephone range.

Speaker 4 (07:53):
Somebody say it maybe want to do man?

Speaker 3 (07:57):
Yeah, off the top, the two big ones hear from
a lot of pros about with the forty nine ers,
especially seven and a half, and this Patriots team of
minus three, which I'm not gonna lie to you, I'm
having a tough time getting on board. But hearing them
breaking down the reasoning for both of it is again,
the forty nine Ers one just makes sense to me,
It sounds sound.

Speaker 2 (08:16):
The Patriots ones are so interesting.

Speaker 3 (08:17):
It's just, you know, we've talked about these great defenses
and how they are in the playoffs and how much
tough will be for Drake May. But even looking at
the live line, it is moving to one to three
and a half. So yeah, clearly these pros are finally
taking their position on it. But yeah, for the other
two games, you know, it's really split.

Speaker 2 (08:35):
Again.

Speaker 3 (08:36):
We're gonna dive into it more obviously, but there's no
you know, six figure guy coming in on the Bears
or the Rams, and like, I just don't see groups
taking that larger position.

Speaker 2 (08:45):
At this point. We did talk about the total.

Speaker 3 (08:47):
I've heard some smart money come in pretty heavy on
that total and take the under. On the flip side
that Denver Bills game. I know, a really smart respected
group they came in on the over. I think it
was on Monday or Tuesday, I think where it came
out that there's only the Bills only can dress three receivers.
Right now, I think they have three, three healthy receivers,
and I haven't heard a whisper of anyone else touching

(09:09):
that over and if anything, it's come down.

Speaker 2 (09:11):
I've seen a couple of forty five and a half
numbers on that one. So that was the game I
talking about. The weather was good. I honestly wanted to
be on the over.

Speaker 3 (09:18):
I could see, I could have seen both of offenses moving
the ball like we always talked about Josh Allen. It's
you know, he might struggle in the first half, you know,
in the second half, he just he lights up these
defenses what he does.

Speaker 2 (09:28):
So yeah, I was upset.

Speaker 3 (09:31):
I thought it was gonna be more pros all over Denver,
you know, the public all over the Bills. It really
was two or three really smart groups came in on
Denver with me. I guess I should say, with the
plus one and a halfs and you know, we all
grabbed it. Now it's flipped and it's like, okay, now
all these other groups that are coming in the Bills
at plus one and a half like, I know plenty
of guys who've been waiting to get the bills of

(09:52):
plus one and a half. So that's a number I
just don't see flipping back to Denver. I just think
if it did flip again, there'd be so much resistance
they'd just go back to the bills. So really interesting.
But the books, right, they're gonna need Denver here and
they're letting a hold as a favorite. So that's that's
a really fun gamo excited breakdown. But yeah, the the
professionals those two games, the Bears rams very split, Bill's Broncos,

(10:16):
they're very split.

Speaker 1 (10:17):
All right, let's get into it. Reminder, we won't be
doing our normal Sunday morning and evening shows. We will
do a Saturday morning preview show. We will do a
Sunday evening review show. But that is coming. That is
coming after the divisional games.

Speaker 2 (10:41):
Yeah, you're gonna be ursisking me a late night for
you and Miami, buddy.

Speaker 1 (10:44):
It's it's gonna be a very late night. It's I
don't even know what I'm doing yet because I got
to watch the Bears game. My wife is coming down.

Speaker 2 (10:54):
My buddy, You'll be doing lots of coffee for Chad.

Speaker 1 (10:57):
Yeah, my buddy Matt and his wife are coming down.
We're all going to have to figure out. We're watching
the Bears game, and I'm gonna have to figure out
how to get from wherever we're watching the Bears game
to my hotel to set up and do this postgame show.
It's all going to be it's gonna be like broadcast news.
We're just going to be racing to get on the air.
It's going to be super exciting. And by then, I
don't know. Will I be happy, will I be sad?

(11:17):
Will I be turning the corner and moving on to Indiana.
I don't know yet. I don't know. Will I be
thinking about Mike Tomlin. We just don't know. Get the
shows at sharper Square on YouTube. Subscribing like the video.
While you're at it, you can subscribe at sharper Square
on Apple POD's Spotify, et cetera. All right, remember contest
lines this week for the contest sides and totals for

(11:38):
all the games. Saturday, January seventeenth, four to thirty pm
Eastern Buffalo is a one point underdog at Denver. The
total down to forty six and a.

Speaker 4 (11:46):
Half Sunday sing.

Speaker 1 (12:17):
As you predicted. As you just mentioned in sharp calls,
this was Simon says. The game has flipped, Denver is
now one point favorite. Definitely a wise guy move, even
if it's just a few groups, because the majority of
the bets are on the Bills, so we know the
public is coming in on the Bills. Here the under

(12:39):
to me, and you just alluded to it. I leaned
over on Tuesday and sort of over the last forty
eight hours, I flipped my script a little bit. Think
about the the Bills run defense. Why would the Broncos
do anything other than run the ball? And then think
about what the Broncos can do against the pass, especially

(13:01):
in man defense, which the Bills are terrible at. Why
the and the Bills being so good a running why
would they do anything other than run the ball. So
by the stats and by the analytics and by the schemes,
this should be an under. And as I say it,
it means it'll go to eighty five points.

Speaker 2 (13:19):
And that's how I'm feelings. So we have to take
at least one over, don't we.

Speaker 3 (13:22):
All the other yeas feel way more confident about the
unders year and this one I'll be patient.

Speaker 2 (13:27):
The pros are going to keep betting the under.

Speaker 3 (13:29):
Maybe we get lucky, we get another key number, it
gets down to forty four, that'd be amazing. So I'll
be a little patient. Like I literally just checked the
weather before he came on here. It's gonna be in
the forties, high thirties, Sonny. I mean it's it's gonna
be perfect football weather a mile high. So looking at
both these teams, yes, the defenses on both these teams,
their strengths this year have been stops in the red zone.

(13:50):
But we see all the time in the playoffs, right,
It's just it doesn't really go like you're used to
in the regular season. And I'll give out the one
glaring stat chat. This is what if you're one that's
you want to keep fading me, I totally get it
if you want to be on the bills here.

Speaker 2 (14:04):
This is the one stat that literally scared the shit
at me about our guy, Evan Abrams.

Speaker 3 (14:08):
The line has flipped from a team being favored by
one and a half to the other to now being
a dog five other times in the playoffs. The record
of the team that flipped too, So it flipped from
the Broncos being a favorite to them or you know,
a dog to them being the favorite. The teams that
become the favorite of like the Broncos they are one

(14:29):
and four is exact.

Speaker 2 (14:32):
It's not historically a good spot, but it's.

Speaker 1 (14:34):
Not a historically a good spot in the regular season either.
I mean, we we made some money this year betting
against the team when the line flipped, and either we
wanted to get ahead of the move or we went
with the team that became the underdog.

Speaker 2 (14:46):
Yeah, and we also got lucky.

Speaker 3 (14:48):
I think in our one contest, the week one, we
had the Ravens plus one and a half and it flipped.
That's right, And obviously it covered again Ravens, though you
could have bet that for four months a plus one
and a half.

Speaker 2 (14:58):
So that's stuff on butt. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (15:00):
The last time it happened twenty January nineteenth, twenty twenty five.
Probably remember it Ravens Bills, same exact scenario. The Bills
were the favorite, it flipped, the Ravens became the favorite.
They lost twenty seven to twenty five Eagles Chiefs Super Bowl.

Speaker 2 (15:19):
Obviously I don't have.

Speaker 3 (15:21):
To mention it again, Eagles did lose that game, and
then I was shocked it had been a while. The
last time it happened was in twenty fifteen Super Bowl
once again, New England Patriots Seahawks. I couldn't believe that
it's free. So the spread it was New England obviously
as a dog. It flipped then be a favorite and

(15:42):
they won. We all know, twenty eight to twenty four
before that same thing, Super Bowl Seahawks Denver. Obviously, people
remember that when that line flipped, Denver just got rolled.

Speaker 1 (15:58):
What was that forty three, forty three to eight something
like that.

Speaker 3 (16:01):
And then the last one twenty twelve Giants against the
forty nine ers.

Speaker 2 (16:08):
Obviously the line flipped.

Speaker 3 (16:09):
The Giants won that game, beat beat on the road,
went to uh Cano stick and won that game twenty
to seventeen.

Speaker 2 (16:16):
So you know, we just we just we see the
data here.

Speaker 3 (16:18):
Obviously it points out that it's not great to be
on the flip side, which is making me a little nervous.
Maybe I can talk us out of putting our contest here.
Obviously I wish our contest. Let let us put first
halfs in here. It's like no brainer. I want to
get on Denver first half once again. I as much
as I hurt that Jags game. It's it was a
little bit of unluckiness there. And I you know Denver here,

(16:43):
we've talked about a Sean Payton on script that first
thirty plays. We expect it to be scores, right, I mean,
he's been game planning this thirty plays for two and
a half weeks now, so I'm really excited to see
what trump Bank comes out with. But yeah, I was
so confident, honestly on this Denver line because like all right,
perfectly flipped despite every bookmaker I've talked to, it's all Bills.

Speaker 2 (17:04):
Money, all the teasers.

Speaker 3 (17:06):
I mean, they can't get enough of seven and a
half point teasers on this Bills team. And as soon
as I saw that staff from Evan, I goes, oh
my god, am I a dead man walking here taking this?

Speaker 2 (17:15):
But we talk all the time. That's it's a super
small sample.

Speaker 3 (17:19):
Not going to try to react to it too much,
but I'm definitely gonna drop my figure him out from
this one. This was gonna be a bigger bet for me.
I'm being a little more patient here because, like anyone else,
as soon as you see that Josh Allen's down to
three healthy receivers and it's you know two guys that
were off the streets, not even a couple of weeks ago.

Speaker 2 (17:38):
We get it.

Speaker 3 (17:38):
He can overcome all these superman It's a man with
a bad leg, a bad foot, a possible concussion on
a short week on the road to Mile High.

Speaker 1 (17:47):
It's like, don't forget he hurt his finger too.

Speaker 3 (17:49):
Yeah, it's it's all stacked against him, and he's just
he's the goat, not the goat. I mean, he's great,
but it's like, if there's any other quarterback, me and
Chat would be putting our second mortgage on our health
and betting this Denver Bronco team. But Josh Allen scares us.
So I don't know about you. I'm still I'm still
on my position, but I I just see this number,
just feel like that Bear's number. I can easily see

(18:10):
this guy in a two and a half three by
kickoff on this Bill's side. I just I really do
think a lot of professionals will coming on this Denver team.
Is that he goes longer, just because all the underline numbers,
like the the data really.

Speaker 2 (18:22):
Favors this Denver team. Chatter I talked about their run game.

Speaker 3 (18:25):
They're probably the second best greater offensive line right behind
this Bills team. And you know we talked about the
Denver has got a great d line, the Bills do not.
So it could be a game where you know, it's
one in the trenches like most games. But at the
end of the day, you know, people when they bet
this one, it's kind of simply they're gonna bet on
the quarterback. They're gonna take a position. I might really
about the bet on bone nicks of the favorite over Josh.

Speaker 1 (18:45):
I think that's it.

Speaker 4 (18:47):
Alert here, Josh Allen's.

Speaker 1 (19:00):
Shot trugs to excuse me, touchdown?

Speaker 3 (19:05):
How many quarterbacks have you ever seen brdle anyone?

Speaker 4 (19:07):
Goodness, there's no fears, no way he was down. Oh
my god.

Speaker 3 (19:26):
The demands to do something about this out of reaches
man making louder and louder.

Speaker 1 (19:34):
Josh Allen is like the night in Monty Python. You know,
they cut off his arm, they cut off his other arm.

Speaker 2 (19:41):
Just a scratch, just.

Speaker 1 (19:42):
A flesh wound, just a flesh wound. It's betting against
Patrick Mahomes. It's that's that's why they totally is so
scary because we've seen with both of these teams. Bonix
had multiple double digit comebacks in the fourth quarter this year.
This team the the Bills last week, and the Jags

(20:05):
lit it up in the second core in the second
half almost blew past the total of fifty one and
a half fifty two, right, So like it's a it's
a tricky, tricky game. There's all the metrics in the
world on the field, there's all the schemes in the
world on the field, but we're looking at the players
and you really got to ask yourself, were betting against

(20:25):
Josh Allen? Are we Bettman on bo Nicks? Like that's
it's a tricky one. I have no desire right now,
strong enough feeling for this to be one of the
contest plays.

Speaker 2 (20:38):
Again that over it could say we couldn't make it.

Speaker 1 (20:41):
That's like to me, the total is the thing that
I'm most interested in. The side is less appealing to me.
But michel by the way.

Speaker 2 (20:48):
Or twenty twenty one points in the fourth quarter like that,
That's that's what I mean a lot this season, So yeah,
I see it.

Speaker 1 (20:55):
I mean, but I feel like we've been seeing that
so much this year so much like just we saw
it the Steelers Houston game almost went over the Bears,
Packers game went over because of that, Like how many
times have we seen just these crazy points scored in
the final quarter. Matt Mitchell has been very quiet about
this game last week. Couldn't shut up this week, not

(21:20):
a peep.

Speaker 3 (21:21):
Yeah, and it's I mean what you just talked about,
it's part of the game of I think about these
guys probably didn't sleep.

Speaker 2 (21:26):
That great the night before.

Speaker 3 (21:27):
Right, you're amped up for a game, then you're all
day you're waiting for this game to kick off once again,
you're amped up, fired up.

Speaker 2 (21:35):
You use a lot of that injury in the first half.

Speaker 3 (21:36):
How do you not when we've seen every game, I
mean the Jags, that Bill's game, Think about how hard
those guys were flying around that first yelf and by
the second half a lot of those guys that not
have their legs underneath them. Right, that's part of it
where it's like they go so hard you're so excited
to be in the playoffs. So I think what you're
saying is true, Like we've seen it now in a
couple of games this year, or these guys with the
new kickoff rules and all that. It's it's definitely something

(21:58):
to look into that. It's a maybe that's the place
for us, right just taking these under his first half
and taking the over second half, that's a good idea.

Speaker 1 (22:06):
Meanwhile, the second game eight pm. San Francisco at Seattle,
the number has moved from seven and a half to seven.
The total is ticked down from forty five and a
half to forty five. This was Chad's choice, and I
actually still the total the under. Everything we just said
about the second halves and the fourth quarters being true,

(22:28):
but I think that also plays into when we've got
volatility with quarterbacks, when we're talking about Josh Allen, bo Nix,
Caleb Williams, I think we have less of that in
this game. And I think if we're trying to sort
of understand the narrative for these games, Mike McDonald is
not going to want to let Sam Donald take this

(22:52):
game away from his defense. Right. He's been much more
conservative the game planning. The Kubiak Klu Kubiak game plan
has been much more conservative with Sam Donald since he
had that little stretch of multiple turnover games, and they've
really been letting their defense just take control of any
game Seattle's been and it's been working for them. I

(23:16):
think they're thinking play conservative, don't give the Niners any
short field with turnovers. And the Niners they've struggled to
run the ball without Trent Williams and he's playing on
one leg. He's admitted it. They've struggled to run the
ball without George Kittle. He's not going to be in
the game. So the Seahawks know that they're going to

(23:37):
game plan to be conservative. I can't see why they
under hasn't moved even more.

Speaker 2 (23:46):
Yeah, I can tell you there are some pros.

Speaker 3 (23:48):
I know that I have taken position on the over
in this game in the sense that what you just
talk about, right, the forty nine Ers defense is so bad.
They're expecting Sam Donald have a much better game than
he did the previous one where you know, thirteen points.

Speaker 2 (24:01):
Like again, they gave him a ton of praises.

Speaker 3 (24:03):
He won the game, obviously outplayed Rock Party, but that
was not that impressive, right they had It was a
two retizent turnovers where they went from a fourth down.
Then he had a horrible pick. But we've talked about
Sam Donald's not been playing well. So that's why I'm
with you an under. It's like that's a lot of
points we bet on Sam Donald in a playoff game
to put up right, you're if you're making that bet
you're banking on, then at least at you three touchdowns,

(24:25):
maybe even possibly four if you think they're gonna win
this game.

Speaker 2 (24:28):
So I'm with you. I I honestly am shocked too.
This is not six and a half.

Speaker 3 (24:32):
I really thought the pros would be like me and
just hammer this forty nine Ers side. I could not
believe the seven half. I know they're injured and they're
really banged up, but it's so hard to be the
divisional opponent three times, Like, not well this wanna be
the third time, it'd be the second time, but playing
them three times, it's like you know each other so well.
It's always such close, tight games. And the last time
you played you got the worst possible game from the

(24:54):
forty nine ers. Like everything in that game was just
so not like them, right, even rock Party, as fearless
as he looked in all these other games, I was
the only game he honestly looked timid and scared.

Speaker 2 (25:03):
That Seahawks game like, he just did not look comfortable
at all. He saw on the Eagles game, even stepped
on the pocket.

Speaker 3 (25:08):
He looked comfortable, so much more comfortable compared to that
Seattle game. So, you know, we I gave it all
the stats. You know, he's he's owned rock Perty, has
owned the Seattle team. He's only lost one game in
his career there, he's six and one. You know, I
gave out that Shannahan stat which is really impressive to me.
Wildcard round, Divisional round. Shanahan seven and oh straight up
six and one against the spread when he's an underdog

(25:31):
on the road in his career, he's three and oh
straight up Shanahan. So he's been a guy in this position.
He's dominated. And again, I don't know if I'm as
confident in the money line I wish I was in
this Seattle, this Niners team. I probably will throw a
little bit on it at some point, but right now,
for me, my my biggest position is obviously the seven
to seven and a half on this forty nine Ers team.

(25:51):
It just feels like way too many points. And yeah,
I'm excited to see where the resistance will because I
know some pros who they want to be on Seattle.
They wanted to be under the seven and obviously so
the books, well they just leave it at the seven.
Because again we talk all the time, the books are
not they're not here for pushes. They lose on pushes, right,
That's that's the worst case scenarios. So if this doesn't

(26:11):
tick under six and a half, I'm not gonna lie
to you. I'll be a little nervous ht in the
game time. But the way it's like right now, I
just think the pros will keep coming to the four
Niners team, and most books I've seen it is all
four hundreds money for the most part, right That's that's
been the early money here. So, like we talked about,
the public usually doesn't bet till Saturday Sunday, So maybe
I'll have more info come Saturday morning. But yeah, for
right now, I like both our prezentre like the under,

(26:35):
I'm with you on that. I just think it's gonna
be a really close, low scoring game. And you know,
I wish I'd given out honestly the seven and a half,
as Simon says, but just as happy to give out
the seven.

Speaker 2 (26:43):
I think that's still a great number of forty nine ers.

Speaker 1 (26:45):
Well, look the seven and a half, I played it
as well with you, but a big number like this also,
it's harder to cover where the total is as low
as it is, the bookmakers are kind of telling us
something here by setting the total where it is, and
how the number where it is, and that it's moved
in the direction of the niners. You got it like

(27:06):
twenty four to seventeen, right, That's that's sort of what
it could feel like, maybe twenty four twenty one, which
is why it was so important to get the half point.
But that's kind of how this game shapes up, because
you've got to believe that Kyle Shanahan will manufacture some points,
like we know he can do that. He's at his

(27:27):
best when he's playing with the fewest number of pieces
on the board and just scheming the fuck out of
a game.

Speaker 3 (27:34):
Like you said, they're wounded for sure, like Trent Dreams
is wounded, Caffrey's wounded.

Speaker 2 (27:39):
We said they have guys off the streets now playing
wide receiver and linebacker.

Speaker 3 (27:44):
I'm like you, I'm shocked the total is this high
because I know it was week one. The first time
they played it was a seventeen thirteen win by the
forty nine ers, and the last time they played was
a thirteen three game. Yeah, so I'm right there. With
you like that was the only reason I'm so hesitant
to be this under so much. It's like, you know,
my model has it a forty two and a half.
I mean you can there's some books there were still

(28:06):
forty six. I know it's come down to forty five
and a half, but I always just shocked they hunk
such a big number of this one and looking right
now the different splits, it's it's basically every public book
for the most part, is on the under two sharp books.
It's heavy money towards the over. So, yeah, the maybe
the professionals really do love the over here, and we're
just underrating how good the Seawks offense can be.

Speaker 2 (28:29):
I just I don't know how you can trust Sam
Darnold here.

Speaker 1 (28:31):
I agree, I don't know what the professionals are thinking,
or maybe they don't know what we're thinking. Let's take
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and Virginia. Okay. So the first Sunday game is Houston
at New England. Very interesting moves here. The line is
ticked out from three from two and a half to three.

(30:42):
Total has come down from forty one to forty and
a half.

Speaker 5 (30:50):
Oh Austin Yomajo.

Speaker 1 (30:57):
Nico Collins did not practice, Probably not going to play
from the concussion. Christian Gonzalez, who had been in the protocol,
did practice for the Patriots yesterday. This is a low
total for a game with two good quarterbacks, and yet
our brass balls better the week presented by a hard

(31:18):
Rock Bett. We're going under forty one.

Speaker 2 (31:22):
You know what it takes. It takes brass balls. Yeah,
we love it, and you know we I've talked about it.

Speaker 3 (31:30):
I'm getting bullied here into New England, which you know,
I I'm happy to do it because to me, it
just the Houston one felt so easy. It's like, of course,
you just take Houston here, a team that has the
better defense, as you know, an offense that as much
as as crap we give them, hunt consistent. They've been,
you know, down the stretcher, they've been much better than
what the obviousitly, they started the year right, they've kind

(31:50):
of found their way and their identity as the season
going along here.

Speaker 2 (31:53):
But the Nico Collins stuff, I'm with people, that's.

Speaker 3 (31:56):
Going to push me over right AF You're losing a
star player Christian Zales is already practicing, so that's a huge,
huge deal to me. The fact they're losing already a
key piece of their offense. That's what they've struggled, right,
They've struggled consistently moving the ball this season, and now
you're losing Nico, you know, CJ's favorite number.

Speaker 2 (32:14):
One just feels like a huge deal.

Speaker 3 (32:16):
And I do think this will go up to three
and a half and almost every book, right, come, come,
kick go. I can see New England getting up to
that number again. So I love the under love New England.
And you know this is this is the tough one
of Swallow and I'm the stuff I'm trying to find
is all the data about rushing quarterbacks against this Houston
team isn't much, right, They've just been so duminant this year.

(32:37):
Obviously they lost those first three games. The other two
games they lost one was when we remember right against
Denver where CJ got knocked out. Denver came back to
the fourth court. The other one was on the road
October twentieth at Seattle, and you know, I don't know
if you'll remember that game, but you know twenty seven
and nineteen, Sam Dorno played really well, and honestly, a

(32:59):
lot of it was his leg getting out the side
of the pocket. So I do think that's the type
of stuff that you know, Drake May. The coaching staff
like they're gonna look at that where it's like, okay,
we know how Domina Wanderson all these edge rushers are.

Speaker 2 (33:12):
You can't beat him with speed.

Speaker 3 (33:14):
Right, It's a lot different than going again to forty
one forty two yearld Aaron Rodgers, who just stands in
that pocket. We've seen Drake May consistently stand in the
pocket and then move up. He steps up into it.
And last week we saw where he knew the passkin
was not working for him, right, he was struggling in
that first half. He went back to his legs, which
to me, that dictated that game. That saved them in

(33:34):
that game where he picked up some easy, cheap first
downs and it kind of got them in a little
bit of rhythm. Now, not that impressive, right, they scored
sixteen points, but to me, that was a big deal.

Speaker 2 (33:44):
Right.

Speaker 3 (33:44):
The kid threw a pick, had a bad fumble, never Wavered.

Speaker 2 (33:48):
Played really well in that second half. I think he
threw before toward your fifty yards.

Speaker 3 (33:51):
So I know, I can't believe I'm not going to
shuston defense, but I am seeing the way of these
other pros and why they like this Patriots team.

Speaker 2 (33:59):
And it's bizarre world. We might we might have.

Speaker 3 (34:01):
A warld where it's about when Nicks first, Drake may
going to a super Bowl.

Speaker 2 (34:05):
But we talk all the time. Chat. It's why in
the quarterback position, the biggest nerds in the world can
say it's a team sport. End of the day, it's
a team sport. It's a quarterback sport.

Speaker 3 (34:17):
Like you get your quarterback in the draft, you can
change your entire organization within a year or two. And
this is this is crazy to me. I can't believe
I'm back in the Patriots. But it's about the number.
And I'm glad we're going with the under.

Speaker 4 (34:29):
Chat.

Speaker 3 (34:30):
It's to me another under that will keep coming down.
I can see this easy being thirty nine and a
half by kickoff.

Speaker 1 (34:34):
Yeah, I'm much more comfortable with the under than I
am with the side.

Speaker 2 (34:38):
And this I'll get you there Saturday morning. We'll see,
we'll see.

Speaker 1 (34:41):
We got time, Yeah, got time. We don't know where
it's gonna lak.

Speaker 2 (34:44):
I get you're a little gunshine on the sides right now.
I get it, buddy, But oh my god.

Speaker 1 (34:48):
My gun shot.

Speaker 2 (34:51):
By the pros.

Speaker 3 (34:51):
And again I'm saying I'm allf on this one because
I have a Model two and a half. But I'm
gonna go back and dive more into what it's like
without Nico Collins. I'm sure it's gonna move buy another
half a point, so three three fields right for this lie.

Speaker 4 (35:08):
Jim. After that same.

Speaker 1 (35:19):
All right, last game, maybe the most important game in
the history of football, the Chicago Bears hosting the Los
Angeles Rams six thirty pm Sunday night, January eighteenth. Bears
are four point underdogs right now at hard Rock the
total is forty Nine's come down from you know, an
opener of fifty two way early in the week. Most

(35:41):
of the week was it at fifty to fifty and
a half when we spoke on Tuesday. At least. The
weather is just wreaking havoc with this game. I highly
recommend everybody go check out a story on ESPN dot
com today by John conn and it's a really fun
story about how players handle the coal. Some of the
coolest things that stood out for me, Stafford, thanks to

(36:05):
advice from Tom Brady, plays in these really cold weather
games in a scuba suit, and Sean McVay wears a
scuba suit and they say it doesn't restrict their movement
at least Stafford says that. Brady says that, and it's
a great way to sort of maintain some kind of
protection against the cold. The flip side is how many

(36:28):
players talked about the pain that comes from having jammed
sprained fingers in the cold. It just feels like your
finger is cracking when you are holding a football trying
to block someone. They say the pain is unlike anything
they felt. And Matthew Stafford is going into this game

(36:52):
where it's supposed to feel like it's negative for with
a badly sprained finger.

Speaker 2 (36:59):
Yeah, I gave you that that it's it's we're seeing
history here.

Speaker 3 (37:02):
That's the second time in NFL history a team will
be back to back games as a home underdog, which
is what the Bears will be, right.

Speaker 2 (37:10):
And at other time it happened.

Speaker 3 (37:11):
I gave you that to that it happened with the
Eagles twenty seventeen to twenty eighteen. You know they've obviously
won both those games as home dogs. And you know,
if I was a Bears fan, I'd be hyped up
like Chaddis gave you. You're you're getting exactly what you want.
You're getting an indoor team from California, outdoors in the
element with a quarterback that might have a banged up finger.
So it's I get why Chad's so excited. It's peak

(37:32):
right now for Bears fandom. What was the first time
you guys have won the home game in the playoffs
in like thirty years or since the Super Bowl run
twenty years?

Speaker 1 (37:41):
I mean it's been like five coaches since we won
a playoff game.

Speaker 3 (37:47):
Right, and you know the like everyone else, the public
has the same exact data we have about the weather.
So everyone's just coming in hammering this Bears team.

Speaker 2 (37:57):
Like I said, the professionals are split from.

Speaker 3 (38:00):
The money wise, I know more money has been on
the rams from pros, right, and I'm interested where these
groups do. Like, well, the group's come in heavier on
the rams and we'll just go back up to four
four and a half on this rams side, because right
now it is all Bears money for the most part.
Like everywhere I've seen and you know bookmakers I've talked to,
it's all Bears and money.

Speaker 2 (38:20):
The total is split, right.

Speaker 3 (38:22):
I think pros have come in and with demo we've done,
which is take the first half under but overall it's
actually pretty split towards the over I will give the
one good stat I could find about Stafford, and again,
like Chad said, this is doesn't hold too much truth
to it because this is something he's never played in before. Right,

(38:42):
this is just for under forty degrees, because I've seen
so many stats about how bad he is in cold
weather simply not true. In his career, he is seven
to eleven in games under forty degrees. Because we all
know he played in the NFC North for you know,
fifteen or whatever it was, twelve years, ten years.

Speaker 2 (39:00):
Stafford, he's four.

Speaker 3 (39:01):
And one against the Bears when it's below forty degrees
obviously at Soldier Field, and when he's favorite, so he's
been favorite eight times. When it's below forty degrees, he
is five and three. But out of seven of those games,
he's had a QB rating of a plus one hundred, So.

Speaker 2 (39:17):
He doesn't struggle horribly.

Speaker 3 (39:19):
I mean, I just gave you the data there, like
he you know, I looked at it early in his career.
He really did, which makes sense, right, what he played
at Georgia was a dome quarterback in Detroit.

Speaker 2 (39:29):
He did struggle on Lambeau. He did struggle.

Speaker 3 (39:32):
What was it we have two years when they played
at Minnesota play at the Minnesota College stadium, which is
crazy I think back to and then obviously Soldiers Field.
He's actually done pretty well there when it's been cold.
But it's a different beast. So yeah, I'm I'm betting
the Rams. I can't believe it, Like I was. I
thought I'd be on the Bears at this point, but

(39:54):
I can't get over the match. For your guys defense,
they are just.

Speaker 1 (39:57):
That's the flip side right.

Speaker 3 (39:58):
Offensively, You're gonna need that finger to be a real
issue because you don't have anyone that can cover the
Matty Adams, let alone Poka Nkua. You don't have a
single cover and your safeties, as great as they have been, they.

Speaker 2 (40:12):
Do not have this speed for Puka Nokua.

Speaker 3 (40:15):
So I see a lot of shelf against Puka and
this will end up being a heavy, heavy run game
for me with Williams and that run with the Rams team.

Speaker 1 (40:25):
So that's what I was going to say, Like, I
don't know that Matthew Stafford's finger is going to be
that much of an impact when you're a really good
running team playing against a rush defense that is twenty
eighth and DVOA against the run twenty sixth in success rate.
They lost their best linebacker in TJ. Edwards. The difference

(40:45):
between when TJ. Edwards plays and when he doesn't play
in terms of yards per carry is almost two yards
per carry. They're giving up six yards per carry when TJ.
Edwards doesn't play.

Speaker 2 (40:57):
So is your tackle out too?

Speaker 1 (41:00):
You know what, I didn't check that up date. I
forgot to check that.

Speaker 2 (41:03):
I know he hasn't practice.

Speaker 3 (41:04):
I just anytime I see a guy get carded out,
it's like, there's no way.

Speaker 2 (41:08):
But we've seen miracles before, right, you really never know.

Speaker 1 (41:11):
But look, we've seen seven miracles for the Bears, who
have won seven games with less than two minutes, so
that they were behind with less than two minutes left.
So like, it's a tricky one. It's really a tricky one.
It's kind of why I'm still liking the first half
under the best because I do expect, like we've seen
the Bears get off the slow starts and really ramp

(41:34):
it up in the final quarter of the game, and
we know the Rams are going to want to ease
into this and why not run the ball a lot
when the Bears defense is just atrocious at stopping the run.
We've seen Blake corm and Kyrin Williams have fumble problems
and that is something that Bears are really good at.
So who knows that could have an impact. But I'm
still leaning too the under in this game. I understand

(41:55):
why people are pushing it back up. I liked that
it got to forty nine. The fact that you're the
Rams worries me a little bit.

Speaker 3 (42:02):
It shouldn't though, Like I know plenty of pros. I
mean again, the pros that are on the Bears. Their
biggest reason is what they keep banging the table about
is if Bryce Young and the playoffs canna light up
this defense, what is Caleb and Ben Johnson?

Speaker 1 (42:14):
Well, look their secondary like though they were great at
the start of the year, but it might have just
been because they were playing bad quarterbacks. Yes, and they've
been terrible in the latter half of the year.

Speaker 3 (42:24):
And that to me is like Pauls where I I
wanted to be all over this under. Like we just
talked about the weather. Both teams. To me, they're going
to be a run, script heavy type of teams just
because we've seen it. When it's cold like this, it's
hard to grip the ball and catch it. That's how
stupid picks and turnovers happen, right, Yeah, when you're throwing
these tight windows, it's popping out of guy's hands. And
we already know Ben Johnson loves on the ball. McVeigh

(42:45):
is the same thing me and child lose our minds.
McVeigh chooses to run the ball so much, especially when
his team has a lead. So really really fun game
and a really tricky total and obviously side, but yeah,
I think I'm almost positibing and end up taking the
Rams here in my pick contest, I'm gonna take the
under as well, and for betting right now, I'm with Chad.
I've taken the Rams first half. I've taken the Rams
first half under. I think it was twenty four and

(43:09):
a half if you can still get it.

Speaker 1 (43:10):
Well, it was twenty five and a half when we
talked about it on Tuesday.

Speaker 3 (43:13):
Yeah, it's juice now minus one twenty I think now
to the under twenty four and a half. So it's
the Obviously the pros have coming, the public coming a well,
and bet this under so yeah, it's you know, we
talk all the time. It's really fun where these games
are so tight like this, where it's.

Speaker 1 (43:28):
Like it's great.

Speaker 2 (43:29):
Yeah, it's so painful picking either side of here.

Speaker 3 (43:31):
You can't And he probably talked to no one's really confident,
especially in this game, picking aside because of the all
the unknown factors, the biggest one being with Chad talked
about that finger with Stafford.

Speaker 2 (43:40):
Is it broken? Is it dislocated? Is it nothing? Right?
We'll have better info, I promise you come Saturday morning.

Speaker 1 (43:47):
Simon. What's your biggest bet right now? I think you
hinted at it, But give us the truth, pull.

Speaker 2 (43:51):
Upose pants and be a man.

Speaker 1 (43:54):
The truth.

Speaker 3 (43:55):
That's always the truth, brother. Honestly, it was probably the
San Francisco plus seven and a half. It's looking more
and where. I can't believe this Newland Patriots. I can't
believe it might end up being my bigger bets.

Speaker 4 (44:07):
Jesus.

Speaker 1 (44:08):
Yeah, I just that feels like you're getting bullied a
little bit.

Speaker 2 (44:12):
But I see what they're saying. I give you those stats.

Speaker 3 (44:16):
CJ is just a different quarterback on the road outdoors,
and we have all the numbers to back that up.
He's just continue to struggle and now you're taking away
his number one receiver. It's like that just feels like
too much to overcome for him. But yeah, it's I
know I can't believe it, but yeah, I think come
Sunday that'll be on my bigger bets. And we'll see

(44:37):
this right now, this this under, I keep betting it,
so even twenty four and a half, that's not scaring
me off. Once it dips down to twenty two and
a half or gets to blow twenty three and a
half then offers, But right now it's still high enough
that I'm happy to keep dicking that first half under.
So I would say, for right now those three are
my biggest bets.

Speaker 1 (44:55):
Nine Ers plus seven and a half, Patriots minus three
under twenty four and a half for half, Rams and
Bears all right, sharp versus square. I think we both
got killed last week. So do you want to go first?

Speaker 2 (45:08):
Yeah, I'll lean in knowe, I'll go Patriots minus three?

Speaker 1 (45:12):
All right? Then you know what I'll do, Bears first
half under?

Speaker 2 (45:17):
Okay, whenever are you gonna take?

Speaker 1 (45:20):
Oh, just give me the twenty four at least.

Speaker 2 (45:22):
It's up to mametri. You can give you the twenty
four minus something.

Speaker 1 (45:25):
Well, Matt Mitchell just gonna come on the air and
calls jag Off, So just give me the twenty four. Hey,
jack Offs, you can have the twenty four. Enjoy. Oh,
thank you, Matt Mitch. Let's go Mack, thank you, thank you,
thank you, thank.

Speaker 2 (45:37):
You for the Bills. Now I'm back on the Bills.

Speaker 1 (45:40):
Yeah, we all love the Bills. Bill's Mafia go team.
Josh Allen. Yeay, all right, what's your favorite parlay here?
I feel like this is the last week we can
probably do some kind of parlor. Yeah, it's a tough one.

Speaker 2 (45:54):
Yeah, is Matt Mitchell gonna ask you? We were? Because
I would love to throw that Bears Rams first half
to a parlay?

Speaker 1 (46:00):
But why don't we do it? I think we can
do whatever we want.

Speaker 3 (46:05):
Well, if we're gonna go dogs, I mean, how do
we not go, uh Saturday Dog Day? We go Bills
and forty nine ers if we If we want to
go Bills and Bears too for the podcast, I don't
hate that either.

Speaker 1 (46:21):
Yeah, Uh, let's do nine those are Bears?

Speaker 2 (46:26):
You like the Bills? Forty nine ers better for underdog parlay?

Speaker 1 (46:29):
Niners and Bills, nine ers and Bills.

Speaker 3 (46:32):
Okay, okay, and uh for the favorites. I mean, you know,
I love Patriots. Are we doing a Sunday chalk? Are
we going Patriots again? And going Rams?

Speaker 2 (46:44):
Just in case you do have the Bears lose, at
least you have a parlay on them.

Speaker 1 (46:47):
Yeah, Pats and Rams. Let's do it.

Speaker 2 (46:49):
Let's do it all right.

Speaker 1 (46:51):
Everybody knows. Everybody knows if you listen to the show
that I am an iu alum go I you fight, Fight, Fight.
I will be in the building Monday night when the
Hoosiers take on the Mami Hurricanes in the College Football
National Championship Game at hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens.
The fabulous hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, you also

(47:15):
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(47:37):
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and of course full casino. Full sports book makes you
want to skip all the nearby Florida beaches. Thanks to
our friends at hard Rock, I am going to the
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(47:59):
not there to be using the top rated hard Rock
bet app to hammer the Hoosiers. And you're gonna hear
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(48:21):
many of you will be watching and betting on this game.
Here we go, special guest talking college football joining us
right now. All right, we're joined by friend of the show,
college football betting expert Joshua Doc Nunn, one of the
co hosts over at the Big Bets on Campus podcast.

(48:42):
Welcome to the show, Doc, Thanks for coming on. Here's
what I need to know. I'm in Indiana, alum. We've
been talking about this for weeks. I'm wearing Indiana T
shirts every single day this week. This entire season has
been a surreal experience. Let's just say that the listeners

(49:03):
on this show haven't watched college football or haven't listened
to me crow about the Indiana Hoosiers at any point
this year. Could you put what's happening here under Kurt
Signetti into perspective for our audience.

Speaker 5 (49:19):
In my opinion, he is pulling all of the right
levers here at Indiana. He's a high culture guy. He's
a high team first attitude coach. There's no egos in
the locker room. He had a quote in the media
about getting the right people on the bus, having the blueprint,
having the vision, and then going out and making it happen.
And I think Kurt Signetti has made good on all

(49:40):
of that. He has removed any possible excuses in the
current landscape of college football today for somebody rebuttling being
able to do a quick turnaround. If you just look
at where Indiana was at seven hundred and thirty days ago.
I went and looked at it. They were three to
nine and losing to Purdue. They were losing by four touchdowns.

(50:00):
At Maryland, it took quadruple overtime to beat Akron. For
anyone listening in here, go back and rewind that and
listen to that and let that sink in. It took
four overtimes to defeat Akron, and now they're undefeated, fifteen
to zero and playing for the national championship. I will
happily and proudly go on record and say that this
is the greatest coaching job in the history of college athletics,

(50:24):
what he's done at the University of Indiana, a program
that is storied but didn't have a lot of success
for many, many years. I mean, you can go back
to the Mallory days before Indiana had really this level
of success, and for them to be struggling when he
took over so badly to now blowing the doors off
of the traditional blue blood powerhouse programs, it is stunning.

(50:48):
It is an immaculate coaching job.

Speaker 1 (50:51):
Well, doc, because I'm old. I was in Bloomington at
IU for the Mallory days when we'd start off every
season four and zero, and then Ohio State or Michigan
would come to town and we'd all be psyched, and
by halftime it'd be forty five nothing, and I'd be

(51:12):
me and my buddy Matt would be the only ones
left in the stands, hanging on for dear life till
the end of that game. So I remember the Mallory
Day as well, and I always thought, like those years,
we were the best six to five and one team
in the country every single year. What kurtz Signetti has
done is so historic. I feel like he should already
be in the College Football Hall of Fame. This game, however,

(51:35):
unusual situation, Hurricanes playing for a title in their home stadium.
We actually asked the SVP of the hard Rock Bet
sports book, Neil Walsh, because they're down in Florida, the
only legal sports book in the state of Florida's Hard
Rock Bet. We asked them to clarify, like how they're

(51:56):
baking that advantage home field advantage into the spread. I'm
curious to get your take on this. After I read
his response, which is obviously the Miami program knows the
locker rooms, the field, the routine. They're not looking at this,
says Neil. As a true home game, the crowd will
be mixed, damn straight. I'll be there, Sharon for Indiana.
The sideline isn't there. That was me, by the way,

(52:17):
not Neil. The sideline isn't there as the environment is
closer to a neutral site than a normal home date.
Because of that, Neil says, we're signing a smaller home
field adjustment than usual when compared to some of the
larger on campus venues across college football, Miami and hard
Rock would not be considered one of the stronger home
field advantages. And for a championship game, they estimate, we estimate,

(52:40):
says Neil, the edged about two points compared to three
or four in a standard home game. Does that level
up with your expectations?

Speaker 5 (52:50):
Yeah, I mean, I think it's a sharp take, and
I think it's an appropriate take. You look at Miami
historically and they don't have a tremendous home field atmosphere.
Their campus isn't or excuse the stadium isn't on campus.
Miami culturally in sports has a problem with people showing
up on time and kind of getting the environment to
where it needs to be anyway in a multitude of

(53:12):
different sports. And this is not going to be akin
to going into Ohio State Stadium or the Big House
or Alabama or somewhere like that, where it's going to
feel like a really hostile environment. And now you put
the stage at the national championship setting and you're going
to have a huge constituent of Indiana fans. I feel

(53:34):
very strongly that this will not feel like a Miami
home game.

Speaker 1 (53:39):
I'm going to say, having been in Atlanta last week,
knowing Indiana's alumni base is literally the largest in the world,
more than eight hundred thousand alumni, knowing this team, these
fans are traveling, and knowing how thirsty they are and
desperate they are, and how much everyone is enjoying this run,
Hoosiers are going to show out in Miami.

Speaker 3 (54:00):
Me I would say, just like all games, I think
zero effect will be done by the fan.

Speaker 2 (54:05):
It's all about the coaching, right, Well, you just talked
about duckets.

Speaker 3 (54:08):
It's a coaching difference here, in my opinion, that's what
most pro better. We're talking about this Signetti seems like
respected to betters, he's the best coach you could possibly
have for this game. And you know, all the people
wait for Duck. What is your favorite bets for this game?
Everyone wants to know.

Speaker 5 (54:23):
I mean, I looked at this pretty extensively, and I
ended up getting to the window and laying it with
Indiana here. I looked at a couple of different metrics
and a couple of different things that you know, these
are two top fifteen teams, two very good college football teams,
and so you're trying to find out these minute differences
which could decide the game. For me, there's a discipline discrepancy.

(54:44):
Miami is the fifth most heavily penalized team in the
entire country. Indiana has the tenth fewest penalties accepted against
them and the sixth fewest penalty yards assessed against them.
I look at Indiana's red zone defense. They had only
surrendered six zone touchdowns all season before the Oregon game.

(55:04):
The margin was so wide. There was a little bit
of garbage time in that Oregon game which caused some
red zone scoring for the Ducks, but just thirty four
percent touchdowns surrendered on the season for Indiana. With their
defense in the red zone, so with the field compressed,
with throwing lanes and receiving windows so minuscule, I worry
about Miami being able to produce in the red zone
at a level that's going to be necessary to seriously

(55:27):
threaten to win this game or stay within the number.
And then, lastly, a forgotten element of football, the special
team's massive edge for Indiana. There special teams composite rankings
are fifth nationally compared to forty ninth for Miami. Indiana's
better in the trenches. They're such a better tackling team,
They're better disciplined. I think in situations where they have

(55:47):
to have it, their execution will rise above Miami's. And
Miami has had times this season where they've gone through
stretches where they've been undisciplined, which either thwarts their offensive
drives or it continues to drive against their defense for
the opponent. And I think that in a game of
this magnitude between two great teams with good athletes all
over the field, that's what it's going to come down to.

(56:08):
So I'm not afraid of the big number here. I
laid the eight and a half with Indiana.

Speaker 1 (56:12):
Well, it's interesting, Simon, you said the other day you
were going to take the outline at thirteen and a half,
So I like here and Duck completely independently going in
the same direction. We asked hard Rock Bet for info
from their trading team about where the action is coming
in right now, and hard Rock Bet sent us a

(56:34):
ton of information. They're the only legal sports book in Florida,
so it's a very good lens into the market, and
from an against the spread perspective, no surprise because it
is the only legal sports book in Florida. Sixty two
percent of the bets sixty eight percent of the money
on Miami plus eight and a half, about a third
of that game handle was on the Hurricanes money line

(56:56):
one and every four bets on the game, so by
far it's their popular bet. Again, not that surprising given
that it's a legal sports book in the state of Florida.
Although a lot of sharp betters in the state of Florida,
as we've been saying all year, we've seen some sharp
lines coming out of hard Rock. So if Miami pulled

(57:17):
off the upset, not great for Hot Rock. They're rooting
for a big and Indiana win. Best case scenario Indiana
by nine and the over. For those asking, hard Rock
has taken one bet that's by far the biggest bet,
you know, a six figure bet from a respected player
on Indiana, but it was at minus six and a

(57:39):
half minus one thirty. A lot of interest from sharp
betters on the Hoosiers in the early going on this game.
Final question for you, duck exotic wagers you'd recommend.

Speaker 5 (57:52):
Yeah, So there's a couple here, and I'll go through
them real quickly. Charlie Becker the receiver for Indiana and
for eighty over two and a half reception he has
been such a reliable third option in this offense, with
most of the attention being given to Omar Cooper and
Elijah Surratt. If you look at Becker, he had two
catches in each of the two playoff games. But Indiana

(58:12):
was wiping the floor with Alabama and Oregon, and over
the last two games they've run the ball ninety times
as opposed to just thirty six passing attempts. But if
you look at when Indiana the rare circumstances when they
were in kind of gotta have it mode Penn State game,
Becker had seven receptions for one hundred and eighteen yards
the Ohio State game, in the Big Ten Championship six

(58:33):
catches for one hundred and twenty six yards, only two
in each of the playoff games. But I do think
that this game will certainly be closer than thirty five
points with a lot of garbage time in the second half,
So I don't expect that here, and I think Indiana
will have some situations where they will have to have it,
and Becker is such an outlet and such a trusted
outlet for Mendoza, So with his reception total at two

(58:56):
and a half, I like over. I also think if
you're kind of feeling a little bit frisky and you
want to do something fun with the first quarter, I
do like the first quarter under, and I do think
that there's going to be a significant feeling out process
from both of these opponents that are unfamiliar with each other.
So I would not be surprised to see Indiana first
drive punt, Miami first drive punt, and that rolls into

(59:18):
a first quarter under, so you can kind of throw
all three of those together in a parlay get about
four and a half to one. So punt, punt, first
quarter under, and then it's game on from there. So
I kind of like that as well.

Speaker 1 (59:30):
Nice. I like that a lot, all right, Joshua on
aka Doc on Twitter at step on a Doc catch
them on the Big Bets on Campus podcast. Thanks for
all the intel, the info, The hoo's your nation supports
your choices.

Speaker 2 (59:45):
Let's go.

Speaker 5 (59:46):
It's going to be a fun game. We'll be singing
the Indiana song together.

Speaker 2 (59:48):
Guys, have a great days.

Speaker 1 (59:50):
Oohoo hoos yours. Nothing gets people side like winning.

Speaker 2 (59:55):
It's pretty simple.

Speaker 1 (59:56):
I win, Google me.

Speaker 4 (01:00:00):
Do miss.

Speaker 1 (01:00:08):
This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast Network.
We will be back on Saturday morning to lock in
our final five. Watch or listen on YouTube a Sharper
Square like the video, Subscribe to the channel, download us
with Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe.
We is five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is
a gift until next time. Love you.

Speaker 2 (01:00:30):
The road to the Super Bowl filled with unexpected twists
and

Speaker 3 (01:00:33):
Turns, detours and shattering collisions, but the final prize makes
the trip worth once

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