Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL Week 1 Bets - Picks, Predictions & Betting Strategies

Sunday kickoff for NFL Week 1 is looming, and betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to preview the games they're looking to bet across the entire slate. Together our duo gives their picks and predictions for Sunday and Monday, along with their best bet for tonight's showdown between quarterbacks Brock Purdy and NFL MVP Matthew Stafford as the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams square off in Australia. The action continues with their Brass Balls Trade of the Week in the Miami Dolphins game in Las Vegas to face the Raiders, as young Malik Willis looks to outmaneuver the veteran Kirk Cousins. We also hear a breakdown of the Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers game, with budding superstar Caleb Williams looking to cover the spread against Bryce Young. Also discussed today through a betting lens is a Sunday Night Football game between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants, as gunslinger Jaxson Dart looks to start a new season strong for new coach John Harbaugh. Plus, we hear about Patrick Mahomes as a small favorite on Monday Night Football, as the Kansas City Chiefs face Bo Nix and his division rival Denver Broncos. Then they ask whether Aaron Rodgers and new coach Mike McCarthy will win their first game reunited for the Pittsburgh Steelers as they host the Atlanta Falcons? And will former MVP Josh Allen and the favored Buffalo Bills win on the road against C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans? We also get Simon's biggest bets of the week, their underdog moneyline parlay, Chad's Discord Grouper of the Week, and more! #Volume

0:03:00 - START

0:10:45 - SHARP CALLS

0:14:35 - NEW YORK JETS VS. TENNESSEE TITANS

0:16:30 - TAMBA BAY BUCS VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS

0:23:10 - CHICAGO BEARS VS. CAROLINA PANTHERS

0:26:40 - MIAMI DOLPHINS VS. LAS VEGAS RAIDRS

0:31:40 - CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

0:42:25 - ATLANTA FALCONS VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

0:46:40 - BUFFALO BILLS VS. HOUSTON TEXANS

0:50:50 - GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

0:58:12 - DALLAS COWBOYS VS. NEW YORK GIANTS

1:03:48 - UNDERDOG MONEYLINE PARLAY 

1:05:50 - FAVORITES MONEYLINE PARLAY 

1:07:00 - SIMON'S BIGGEST BETS 

1:09:40 - SURVIVOR POOL PICK OF THE WEEK 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Polymarket. We are part
of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that
makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.
I am Chad Millman. I am joined as I am
every show by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre,

(00:24):
professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

Speaker 2 (00:30):
Chad, how we doing?

Speaker 1 (00:31):
You know, last night during the game, during the Seahawks-Patriots game,
which we're going to talk about just for a minute,
they kept talking about how late in the game the
players are going to get so exhausted because the starters
haven't played much during the preseason. I felt like I
was getting my legs during the game. Like, I'm up
way past 9.30. Like, at 9.30, it went to halftime.

(00:53):
I went upstairs. I brushed my teeth. I prepared for
bed so when the game ended, I could go right
to bed. But it was freaking glorious to have the
game back. It had everything. And Simon, Simon, within five plays,
we were getting the full Drew Locke experience, a player

(01:15):
we had committed to ourselves. We would never, ever, ever
bet on again. And that's who we got. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:25):
And he saved me and saved me a lot of
money because, I told you, I've been betting the Seahawks,
you know, for three months. I gave out that stat,
whatever it is, since 2001.

Speaker 2 (01:36):
Yeah, yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:38):
33-7, now 34-7 at home in the first two weeks
of the season, straight up.

Speaker 2 (01:42):
And it's like, you know, you don't ever make bets.

Speaker 3 (01:45):
And then when the quarterback goes down in the first series,
you're just always cooked. I mean, we've lived that. So,
you know, brutal in the three and a half. It
didn't get there. I mean, if you're a Patriots backer
from last night, you might have used up all your luck. Yeah.
in the first game of the year in week one.
Cause you, you should have not covered that game in
a thousand different ways. I mean, the cold back touchdown, uh,

(02:07):
I think they had second and one, they had like
a false start penalty. That was second and six. And
then yeah, kick the field goal from there. And it's like,
just all these little things where if it was Sam Darnold,
they probably roll.

Speaker 2 (02:18):
Again by 10 or 15 points.

Speaker 3 (02:20):
And, um, not going to be too hard on chat
about his Drake May top five take today. Cause it's
the easiest hanging fruit in the world. But, it's the
best part of making lists and doing these things before
the season where it's like someone like me who knows
ball can laugh at people and make fun of them.
And people are like, you're going to eat these words.

(02:41):
I mean, the amount of Patriots fans I heard from
in the first quarter and for the rest of the
game to play out the way it did, where it's like,
I literally told you guys on the show cover six,
the book is out on Drake May. We'll see if
he worked on it in the off season and if
they could have figured it out. And yeah, I think
he was over three or over five on passes that

(03:03):
traveled more than 15 yards in the air with three picks.
So is it just a Seattle problem for Drake May
and the Patriots? If I'm a Patriots fan, that's what
you have to hope. Or is there really the book
is out on Drake May and that's the way to
beat them, which is you'll let them dump it off
as much as he wants. But as soon as he
puts it downfield, that's when you turn them over.

Speaker 2 (03:23):
So if A.J.

Speaker 3 (03:24):
Brown's out four to six weeks, um, Brutal, brutal spot
for a Patriots team that had a lot of hope
coming into the season and just the worst way you
could possibly start the year where you're gifted a win
on the road in Seattle, and he just totally blew
that game.

Speaker 1 (03:39):
Well, look, you could argue that the more impactful loss
during the game was A.J. Brown than Sam Darnold because
there were successful moments for Drake May in the first
half when he looked like he was Drake May. top
five quarterback in the NFL, it's because there were opportunities

(04:00):
either directly to A.J. Brown, that pass interference early in
the game that led to the touchdown. There was another
slant where he was open and made a good catch
that led to a first down. There were opportunities there.
When he went out, it seemed like the entire offense changed.
Whereas with the Seahawks, their defense got better and better
as the game went on. And Drew Locke made just

(04:23):
enough Falling back, psychotic plays to keep us in the
game where every time he threw it. But to me, A.J.
Brown going out ended up being a bigger deal than
Sam Darnold.

Speaker 3 (04:38):
So you think A.J. Brown's a bigger deal than Sam
Darnold getting hurt?

Speaker 1 (04:42):
I said in the game. I said it was more
impactful in the game.

Speaker 2 (04:46):
I'm going to disagree.

Speaker 3 (04:47):
I think Sam Darnold put up 49 points or 40
points against his Patriots defense.

Speaker 2 (04:51):
And what, did he put up 13 points?

Speaker 1 (04:53):
Guy, every time I try to make a comment, you
try to make it a case about misinterpreting what I said.
In this game. It doesn't make sense.

Speaker 2 (05:00):
That's what I'm saying.

Speaker 1 (05:00):
Of course it does. Drake May was doing really well
in the first half.

Speaker 2 (05:04):
No, he wasn't. That's what I'm saying. What you're saying
doesn't make sense. He didn't pass the ball 15 yards.

Speaker 1 (05:08):
It does.

Speaker 2 (05:09):
He didn't have a completion over 15 yards.

Speaker 1 (05:11):
Simon, he had A.J. Brown on the other side of
the field. He was a different player without A.J. Brown.
That was a different offense without A.J. Brown.

Speaker 2 (05:18):
They had 10 points in the first half. What did A.J.
Brown do that made you think he was so incredible
in the first half?

Speaker 1 (05:25):
Dude, he didn't even play the whole first half.

Speaker 3 (05:28):
I know, but you're acting like he was this world beater.
I don't know where this is coming from.

Speaker 1 (05:31):
I'm not saying he was a world beater. I'm just
saying the difference in the game, to me, was as
much about A.J. Brown not playing— for Drake May as
anything else. I'm not saying Drake.

Speaker 2 (05:43):
May played well. I'm very sensitive about Drake May. And
I get it.

Speaker 3 (05:46):
I'd be a little embarrassed too this morning if I
were in the top five. Sam Darnold is probably more
important than A.J.

Speaker 2 (05:53):
Brown.

Speaker 1 (05:53):
You're being an asshole. And you're purposely trying to misinterpret
what I'm saying to win points. That's not the point
that I'm making.

Speaker 2 (06:00):
I don't get what you're saying. It doesn't make sense.

Speaker 1 (06:02):
It's not the point that I'm making. I'm saying in
this game, at the end of the game, Drew Locke
played well. Drake May did not. Drew Locke had an
incredible defense. Drake May lost his best receiver. And in
the early part of the game, you could clearly see
that A.J. Brown was having an impact. Whether or not

(06:24):
he was catching any balls or not, you could see
he was having an impact. As soon as he went out,
everything changed for the Patriots. And he went out in
the first half after they were up 10-0. That's my point.

Speaker 2 (06:36):
Okay.

Speaker 1 (06:37):
By the way. They're the only team in the last
30 years to throw three picks, take three sacks, commit
three penalties, score zero points in any single quarter of
any single game. I don't give a fuck about Drake May.
I don't even like the Patriots.

Speaker 3 (06:55):
You sound very level-headed right now, Chad.

Speaker 2 (06:57):
Keep it up. You're on a good start.

Speaker 1 (07:00):
Because you're fucking annoying me. All right. This is our
Thursday NFL week one show. You're going to hear sharp calls.
You're going to hear brass balls. Our underdog and favorites, parlays,
Simon's biggest bets, sharp versus square, our Discord grouper of
the week winner. This is the episode where we will

(07:24):
start to narrow down our final five official picks. Every week,
we discuss our picks on Tuesdays. By Thursday, Simon has
gotten an earful from his fellow professionals. about what they like,
what they hate. Why didn't Simon agree with me? I will.
They bully him. It's time for sharp calls.

Speaker 2 (07:47):
Who's there.

Speaker 1 (07:48):
I'm talking. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (08:00):
A lot of calls just about, I'll start with the
games that we didn't love that people think we're missing here. Um,
Let's start at the very bottom. Let's start Monday night.
People can't believe we're not on the Chiefs. That feels
like such a Chiefs spot. Yeah, it just seems like
pros versus public, right? The pros are going to be
all over the Chiefs. Public are going to be taking
the plus three or the plus two and a half
with Denver. So that's a game we might have to

(08:20):
circle back to that. Maybe we've overlooked a little bit.
I think we're both just a little squeamish, a little
scared off about backing Mahomes in his first game.

Speaker 1 (08:29):
Denver is a huge public team this week. So much
public money on Denver.

Speaker 2 (08:36):
Same for this next game.

Speaker 3 (08:37):
Giants, it's, you know, we've thought coming into the year,
the pros have loved the Giants coming in, and this
is the exact moment you're supposed to back the Giants, right?

Speaker 2 (08:44):
They're fully healthy.

Speaker 3 (08:46):
On the flip side, Dallas does not have a bunch
of injuries to their offensive line, have a brand-new defense
with a brand-new defensive coordinator on the road in their
first start, and we talked about it. Like, Dallas led
the league in penalties last year. We don't know if
they're a well-coached team. All we know is they're a
great offense. So if we're going to take a stand
here with the pros– That's another game we might have

(09:06):
to look more into in the Giants, especially the fact
you can get plus three now in a divisional game
at home. That's very tempting. But those two jumped out
to me because I feel like we really didn't care
about them. And that was the most phone calls I
got about those two games. And I said, I don't
know if me and Chad will come in on the Chiefs,
but I'm definitely getting more and more tuned into that

(09:28):
Giants game. So definitely appreciate the boys calling about that one.
Everyone loves Carolina. Everyone's going to love that one. Not
a shocker, especially a poly market of plus three and
a half. Cleveland plays eight and a half. Another game
we haven't talked a lot about. Just an insane number.
I think most pros agree with that, that the Jaguars.

Speaker 2 (09:48):
This is totally based.

Speaker 3 (09:49):
This is a line totally based off last season, like
giving tons and tons of respect to the Jaguars. Zero
respects to a Browns team that, you know, everyone knows
Deshaun Watson hasn't played a good football game or whatever.
is three years two years nobody's touching that one so
even bookmakers I talked to are like can you please
come bet this we can't keep going above eight and
a half so that's the type of game that the

(10:10):
books they beg for that money and the last game
I mean obviously guys are on the books that game's
kind of split the last one though I really got
a lot of questions about that you know we're not
more into was that Houston game, which.

Speaker 2 (10:22):
That is fair.

Speaker 3 (10:23):
I think we both are just, it's just always weird
with us and Josh Allen. Maybe it's that Matt Mitchell
effect looming over us.

Speaker 2 (10:30):
They're right.

Speaker 3 (10:30):
Like this should be an auto smash play. It's Joe Brady,
his first time coaching on the road against the Houston defense.
We just saw last night, a great defense.

Speaker 2 (10:40):
So I talked, I'm all in on teasers. I bet
that pretty heavily. This is a game.

Speaker 3 (10:46):
Me and Chad most definitely might get bullied and to
put it in. It's just, You're getting the plus one
and a half with a great defense at home. It's
once again, it's we just don't trust the quarterback. So
that's that's one I've had to really swallow my pride
on where it's like can't coward my way out of
and just do teasers on it.

Speaker 2 (11:04):
I got to give out a line on it. So
I am dug in.

Speaker 3 (11:07):
I bet the one and a half and I will
be a big Houston backer this coming weekend.

Speaker 1 (11:12):
Well, by the way, Simon, I think the Seahawks proved
last night when you have a great defense quarterback really
doesn't matter.

Speaker 2 (11:22):
You waiting for applause? Keep it moving.

Speaker 3 (11:28):
All right.

Speaker 1 (11:32):
It's surprising to me, Simon. No one has talked about
the New York Jets at the Tennessee Titans plus one
and a half. And it actually crept up a little
bit to two and a half. So you're saying that
nobody bought my argument. On Tuesday, you said I was
not being an adult. After the show, Matt Mitchell asked
how I could spend so much time in the Jets.

(11:55):
You asked him to jump in next time. Here we are.
Can I assume you have still not made a bet
on the Jets and you will not acquiesce and go
with me into the contest with the Jets?

Speaker 3 (12:07):
No, no. I said I'd bet the Jets just like
every other sucker in the world. We all know that
Cam Ward has looked horrible, right? I mean, there's no
secret to why we're betting the Jets here. Sneaky fantasy
week one defense, if you're a stuck, the Jets. I mean,
because we just talk about Cam Ward. He might be terrible.
And we've not seen anything disprove that. Like we haven't

(12:27):
seen anything in the preseason. But my whole view of it, Chad,
it's just it's a week one line. It's never that easy.
And the fact that it's I think it's like 80
percent of the bets on the money on the Jets.
And like you said, still ticking back up because there
is pros I know who are taking Tennessee because it's
solid at home with this defense. First game against the
Jets against Gino Smith, you know. This game could go

(12:49):
a million different ways. That's why I don't want to
take it. There's just too many variables, too many unknowns
when we have 15 other amazing games to pick from.
So that's just my pick. Like I told you, if
you get the Jets right here, and I think next
week Tennessee plays the Eagles, you nail the Eagles again,
you are the Tennessee champion. You can bet whatever game
you want with Tennessee Titans. I have too much PTSD.

(13:10):
Our fans have too much PTSD with the Titans. We
just can't get involved in them week one. All right.

Speaker 1 (13:17):
I'm curious, you mentioned a split on Tampa Bay at Cincinnati.
The line's three and a half. Tampa Bay was Chad's choice.
Maybe I took it too early and you indicated there's
splits because the number is juiced to three and a
half on both sides, like it might go to four

(13:37):
at a lot of books. I haven't seen the four
pop yet. You loved it too. What are we missing?
Why are some professionals coming in on Cincinnati?

Speaker 3 (13:52):
I think they're overrating their defense too much. I do
think their defense will be better. It's like Dallas. It's
not a bunch of guys that have played together. It's
a new system on a new team in their first
start going against a Baker offense that when they're clicking,
my God, are they good. And we've talked, their offensive
line is really good. So that's why I'm dug in
with you on the Bucs. Like I really do think

(14:14):
we'll end up having them in our contest because it's
Such a great number. Yeah. Baker never lets us down
in this spot, especially when the number is above three.
He's just a covering machine. He always finds a way
to backdoor when he's fully healthy. And that's offenses. Emeka
Abuk was at practice. Chris Godwin's been at practice. Bucky
Irving's been at practice. Kenny Ginnemel's been at practice. Their
offensive line's totally healthy. If our biggest question and weakness

(14:36):
is this Bucs defense, which is fair, I mean, I
still think Baker can keep us in a shootout.

Speaker 2 (14:42):
Like, we're never going to be dead. Like, me and
you talked about it.

Speaker 3 (14:43):
If he's down 10... We don't mind because even Baker
knows he's going to keep going for it, even on
fourth down, and he'll hopefully get us that backdoor. We've
seen defenses in those type of scenarios.

Speaker 2 (14:54):
They play lax.

Speaker 3 (14:55):
They give up the touchdown just as long as they're
wasting time and dumping off short downfield. It's really about
the number in the matchup and the fact that the Bengals,
historically even Joe Burrow, have struggled in the week one,
week two. We've seen those stats. Joe Burrow is an
incredible covering machine after week two, well above. 500. Before
week two, he's well below. 500. I think he has

(15:16):
two covers or one cover in his career. So we're
really playing the spot, playing the number in the situation.
And I am once again shocked that these professionals are
just overrating this Bengals defense. We've all agreed they're going
to be better, but in week one, it just feels
like this ain't week nine projecting. This is all new
faces against a higher-powered offense, an offense that I know

(15:40):
it sounds crazy looking back, but me and Chad really
believed through four games last year that Baker was going
to potentially win an MVP. That's how good Baker was
through four weeks last year before he got hurt. So, yeah,
health is the biggest one. I mean, we learned it
last night, right? All these guys going down, it's like
you can't overthink. I think it's week nine, and these

(16:00):
guys are all banked up. You have fully healthy teams
in these situations. And, yeah, it's really about us playing
the numbers.

Speaker 2 (16:07):
So Chad's right.

Speaker 3 (16:08):
You can be patient and hope you get the four.
there's not that much difference than just grabbing the three
and a half now, just in case professional money does
come in and bet it down. But I have no
issue waiting if you need to and get the plus four.
I've actually grabbed a couple of plus fours when they
thought Emeka Buka was going to miss this game. So
it could jump back up, right? Like I said, it
is split. There are professionals betting this Bengals team. It's

(16:31):
all about what the book's going to need to attract
at this point.

Speaker 1 (16:35):
I think it's fair to say, because we talked about
the Bengals so much during the preseason and they're in
a lot of our exactives, but your point about it's
week one, not week nine, that's what we're betting here.
We're not walking away from the Bengals season long. I
think we still believe in them if their defense can
get incrementally better. But Baker just has a better track

(16:57):
record of delivering right now than the Bengals defense does.
I'm glad to see we haven't wavered on the Bucs.
I was worried that all of a sudden there was
going to be some contentiousness, and I don't like that.
You know I don't like that. Chicago at Carolina. Carolina,
three and a half. Get that at Polymarket. This one
was Simon Says. Look, they talked about it on Sharp Calls.

(17:23):
You've bet it. I've bet it. Bryce Young is an underdog.
Chicago with a terrible, terrible defense. Chicago was way overhyped.
The money, the number has moved from three to three
and a half in some places, two and a half
to three in other places. I think we're getting a

(17:45):
really good number here. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (17:48):
And that's what it all comes down to. Just the number.

Speaker 3 (17:50):
As much as we do think the Bears offense is
an absolute juggernaut and this is a good matchup for them, right?
You know, this is The type of team that we
saw last year, I mean, the games where they need
to be a shootout, for whatever reason, Bryce Young has
stepped up. I mean, I keep going back to that
playoff game against the Rams, how incredible of a game
he had. But we've seen Bryce do that last year, right?

(18:11):
A bunch of games where he needed to put up
points and move the ball. They have weapons like Coker, Tedderone, McMillan.
These are good receivers on the outside. We talked about
this Bears team. Could they have gotten away with it
if Kobe Bryant was healthy?

Speaker 2 (18:24):
I think they could have. That's how good of a
safety he is.

Speaker 3 (18:27):
Without a field general like that in the middle, they're
going to have busted coverages. They're going to have blown
assignments at some point. And just looking at the matchup,
the fact that it's ticked up, right? Some books are
still at two and a half, which I also think
is very telling. When the books are still letting people
come in and take a position on the Bears under three,

(18:48):
while other books and polymarket predicted markets are up to
three and a half, that just shows how confident a
lot of these books are in this Panthers pot and
taking that position on the Panthers. So, the market hasn't
shifted enough. I sadly say, I wish our show had
that type of power. It's still like 90% of the
bets and the money on the, on this bears team.
So our fans, our little fans have come in. They've

(19:09):
taken their fish on the Panthers. Maybe this is more
updated come Sunday as people have bet their money here on,
you know, the Seattle game.

Speaker 2 (19:16):
Then maybe tonight on.

Speaker 3 (19:17):
This San Francisco game, it's like, okay, now they're going
to start coming in on this side more with the bears.
Cause I do, I am shocked to see there's still
two and a half. So I just think the bears are,
public are going to bet them up i will be
shocked sunday if there aren't all threes and three and
a halves um i would love to see if there's
two and a halves because that that would really give
me a lot of confidence this panthers side but yeah
it's it's tough we know our contest there the lines

(19:39):
are always updating and moving so i hope we get
the three and a half at two and a half
we have a real conversation because we we we don't
tend to take the two and a half to be honest,
unless we really love a team taking a dog at
two and a half. It's just me and Chad. No, the, the,
that point is such a big deal. How many times
have it landed on three for us? So another game
where I just hope everyone did the poly marketer shopped

(20:02):
around to find the three and a half. It's just
such a key number here. And a bears team that
last year, how many games did they come from mine
to win? So it's just, That insurance is needed against
a guy like Caleb Williams who always finds a way
to come back.

Speaker 2 (20:12):
And win games.

Speaker 1 (20:14):
You mentioned the contest. I know people are asking about it.
Please be patient. We apologize. We haven't given the official
announcement and put up the site yet. There's just a
lot of hoops to jump through. Matt Mitchell is working
on it diligently, but it will get up. And even
if it gets up a little bit late, the rules

(20:35):
are going to allow for a full season contest.

Speaker 2 (20:37):
Simon.

Speaker 1 (20:38):
It is time for our Brass Balls Trade of the
Week presented by Polymarket. It is the Miami Dolphins, three
and a half, currently trading at 45% at Polymarket.

Speaker 2 (20:52):
You know what it takes?

Speaker 1 (20:54):
It takes brass balls. Dude, we were kind of already there.
Then the Brock Bowers news broke yesterday. So he's not
going to be playing. This and Cleveland are the ballsiest
plays on the board. We've decided to go with this

(21:17):
one partially because we've just been on it for so long.

Speaker 3 (21:21):
Yeah, and I get why you don't trust Cleveland and
we're more so here in Miami just because it is
not only are the trends pointing to it, but it's
like who are the Raiders to be catching a three
and a half against anybody, let.

Speaker 1 (21:35):
Alone especially with brock bowers out now.

Speaker 3 (21:38):
Yeah and potentially genti and um i know there's a
lot of underlying numbers where i think it's mayor myers
the backup is actually a pretty good tight end and
you should be able to step in in this qbx
system and perform pretty well but on the flip side
like i look at this miami team and this is
the exact type of week they could catch a team
i know i i said that big is a sneaky

(21:59):
you know survivor play but that's just game theory like
in actuality if Miami is going to steal any type
of game, it is week one. And like with, you know, Willis,
that quarterback, we don't know how long he'll last being healthy.
This is a great matchup for him. Like this is
the type of defense. They don't have the linebackers that
keep up speed wise for him once he gets outside
the pocket. So between him and a Chan, I think

(22:20):
we both can squint our eyes enough and see how
they can cover this number defensively. There's obviously nothing there
for Miami. Like I just going through their depth chart.
It really is a hodgepodge of, journeymen, bench players, guys
you've never heard of. And that's their starters, like legit
running them out there every week. So it might be
a total train wreck. Me and Chad might be down 15, 14,

(22:43):
nothing here to start the game. You know, Malik Willis
getting us a safety or who, who God knows what,
but it just feels like this is the exact type
of line we play in week one, where it's like,
even talking of traders, total market, that's, that's free to
play right now because everyone's just either back on the
Raiders or not touching this game at all. So, um,
Hopefully it stays at three and a half, whatever you're
shopping at. I've seen, like since Chad talked about it,

(23:05):
since Brock Bowers' news got announced, a lot of books
have dropped to three. And some are teetering on two
and a half now. Definitely grab this one now just
in case by kickoff it's down to three, two and
a half.

Speaker 1 (23:16):
I actually played Miami to win outright. I didn't even
bother with the number. It's a three and a half.
It'll be our brass ball's. Trade of the Week, you
make a great point about the roster. So this from
Doug Clausen, who works in research at CBS Sports, he

(23:37):
put this on X. The Dolphins are the only team
in recorded history to pay more for players not on
the roster, $ 183 million for players not on the roster
than players on the roster, $ 104 million. They are also
the least experienced team to open a season in recorded history,

(24:01):
something like 600 combined games for every player on the roster.
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(25:28):
when you deposit $ 10. All right, we talked a little
bit about Cleveland and Jacksonville, Simon. Numbers at eight and
a half. I came in hot on the Jags the
other day. I actually included the Jags money line in
the Discord as one of our potential groupers for the weekend. Reminder,

(25:49):
my new book, The Number, comes out in January. If
you pre-order it at readthenumber.com. You get access to the
Discord every week. We are voting on bets to discuss
on the show. I will make those bets with my
own money. Whatever we win, plus a floor of five
grand will be donated to St. Jude's. Go to readthenumber.com

(26:13):
to join the conversation. Everyone must have listened to the
show and heard you gently tell me I was an
idiot for backing, for going against the Browns. We heard
it in sharp calls of the six options and more
than 90 votes in the discord. Simon, the jazz got

(26:34):
a total of four votes and the line has moved
in the Browns direction. There are actually a couple of seven,
seven and a halves out there. So clearly wise guys
are betting on the Browns.

Speaker 3 (26:47):
Yeah. Just too, too big of a number, too much
respect for a team that it's a new season. Everybody
like as much as you want to, talking about how
good the Jags finished and how incredible Trevor Lawrence was
the second half of the season, which is all great.

Speaker 2 (26:58):
That's what you want.

Speaker 3 (27:00):
It's a totally new season and two teams that they're
not perceived to be what they are.

Speaker 2 (27:05):
I think by general public, the Jags are good.

Speaker 3 (27:07):
I don't think they are, which this number is saying
they are a top five, top 16. And on the
flip side, this number is saying the Browns are a
bottom two, bottom three team, which I just can't agree with,
especially when it comes to week one, like to be
catching eight and a half, seven and a half points
in week one against a team. You have to be
so dominant because you're basically saying all of us have

(27:28):
all these unknowns.

Speaker 2 (27:28):
None of us have played preseason. We're going to come
out here.

Speaker 3 (27:31):
We're going to smack this team by maybe 10, potentially
10 points or more. And it's like we know football.
That just does not happen. You have to have such
a bad game on one side of the ball, right?
If Deshaun Watson comes out and has a ton of turnovers, yeah,
we're dead as is. But if Munkin, who's got a
whole offseason prepared for this, has the right game plan,
they play smart. they have incredible amount of weapons around

(27:52):
the Sean Watson. The biggest question is the offensive line.
And we've talked a time. There's ways to mitigate that.
Like 15 teams, the NFL had bad offensive lines. It's
just the way it is. They all find a way, right?
They all find a way to, to attack defenses when
they have both of those lines and whether that's getting
out the ball out quick, if it's whether that's running
against it, maybe the quarterback is mobile, which to Sean Watson,
I know it's been a long time. He can still

(28:14):
run outside the pocket. So it just, it's too big
of a number. Like I said, it's, I haven't talked
to a pro that had this model above seven. So
the fact that it has dropped to seven and a half,
you're still getting half a free point. Even on guys
who models, you favorite the Jaguars team. Now I have
this number at six. So like I am, I am
way above that. And I think this is a great
number of the Browns. And it is tough though, trying

(28:35):
to model this one hour. It's like the Sean Watson.
I know it sounds crazy, but him or Sanders, the
difference in my model is literally a point. It's like,
there's not that big of a difference. That's how far
the Sean Watson has fallen. But yeah, the model, my
model really does love this Browns defense. And that's my
only fear here is I'm going off a tons and
tons of numbers and data from last year where this

(28:58):
year there is no miles Garrett, right? As much as
verse might be, you know, a good player, there's no
way to mitigate the number one player in football and defense.
And on the flip side, it's not Schwartz. It's a
different defense. And we've, we've seen all the numbers, right?
The Browns teams, Their defense especially does not travel on
the road. They've just struggled historically in the last couple
of years on the road. So there's a lot of

(29:20):
reasons to pause about it. But at the end of
the day, it's like, you know, this Jaguars team, 30th
ranked offensive.

Speaker 2 (29:27):
Line in my model this year. This Jaguars team.

Speaker 3 (29:31):
As much as you're going to say Trevor Lawrence did
improve and he was better, I think it was more
to do so that he just wasn't doing those stupid turnovers.

Speaker 2 (29:39):
And we've seen.

Speaker 3 (29:40):
that, you know, come back and bite him against good defenses,
which the Browns are for all temperance purposes.

Speaker 2 (29:45):
So just feels.

Speaker 3 (29:47):
Like a type of game that, you know, people in
the public, they are betting the Saints. They are coming
in betting the Cardinals. So you can look at all
the splits. There are people out there betting it. Nobody
of our professionals are betting this Browns team. So it
just feels like another draw of the line, the same
type of game where pros will take a position. We
think we know better than the public and public could

(30:09):
come smell like roses with this Jaguars team. You are
truly betting at a terrible number. You're getting no value
for betting this Jaguars team. You're basically betting at the
highest part you can have the market if you're taking
minus eight and a half right now on this Jaguars side.

Speaker 1 (30:23):
So the way you talk about it, this should be
a no brainer for our contest. Like if it, I
feel like if it wasn't week one, we wouldn't even
be hesitating.

Speaker 3 (30:39):
On the flip side, week one makes me want to
do it even more because there is so much unknown.
We're getting so many points. Like I really can't believe
it's eight and a half.

Speaker 1 (30:46):
All right, let's leave it in. Let's, let's like consider it.

Speaker 2 (30:48):
I think you're right, Chad.

Speaker 3 (30:49):
I think it will, by the time we get on
here Sunday morning, it will be seven and a half, unfortunately.
So that will be the real decision. But yeah, At 8.5,
if we're fighting about the fifth one in, I think
we'll both agree just to put them in. It's just
such a big number, such a nice spot, and it's
just Jaguars could be really good, but I don't think
they're in that. They're not what they were last year
at the end of the season where they were this

(31:10):
fine-tuned offense, and their defense was getting tons of turnovers.
That turnover luck regrets. The offense should regress a little
bit just because it's a new start to the season,
and the Browns team is just so many unknowns. No
one knows what this team could potentially be. What we
do know is it is going to fall on Deshaun Watson.
If this guy can't complete third down throws, me and

(31:31):
you are going to know we're cooked. That's going to
be the tough part of this one. We're just totally
betting to a guy that we don't know. But I
will say my last memory is you betting him against
the Ravens. I think it was plus seven and a
half dog. And he was down like 21 and a half.
Had like a broken collarbone. Got the shot.

Speaker 1 (31:50):
Yes.

Speaker 2 (31:51):
And a half.

Speaker 3 (31:52):
Didn't even know where he was and brought the Browns
back against that Ravens team and won that game outright.
So we've seen.

Speaker 2 (31:58):
Watson do it. It's just, can he put it together, Chad,
all these years later once again?

Speaker 1 (32:03):
Well, we also know that he's very fast. You mentioned
his ability to run. Everyone knows from his latest legal troubles,
the guy is fast. I'm referring to a recent speeding ticket.
Atlanta at Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh three and a half, solid everywhere.
Looks like it might be headed to four. Opinions across

(32:25):
the board are pretty much consensus on this. This was
another submission in the Discord. I'll announce the winner of
the grouper bets at the end, but a lot of
people were making their voice heard about the Steelers. And
I feel a little bit like we like the Steelers. Certainly,

(32:48):
I like them on the money line. Last night in
the pregame with the Patriots and the Seahawks, Mike Tomlin
just went off on Tua. I almost feel guilty betting
the Steelers at minus three, three and a half in
our first game after Mike Tomlin cover guard has retired,
cover God has retired. But it's hard enough to do

(33:10):
it because there's nobody who thinks Tua might not be
on the roster in week two.

Speaker 3 (33:17):
Yeah, and this would be the classic game where Tua
does burn us, but now the fact that the Raiders,
you know, they're probably not usable now as a survivor.
Pittsburgh's turned into that sneaky, sexy team that everyone's going
to use now.

Speaker 2 (33:30):
They're the team that, if you don't take the.

Speaker 3 (33:32):
Chargers, you have to use Pittsburgh, especially while Aaron Rodgers
is healthy in this exact spot against a Falcons team that,
if Stefanski is a great coach, can he find a
way to scheme up Tua against his defense and find
a way? Yeah, but We've seen it, this Tua style
of play. I mean, you have guys coming out saying
that if Penix was healthy, Tua would have been cut. Yeah.

(33:54):
The fact that people in the media are saying that
on TV, there are a ton of leaks right now
in Atlanta.

Speaker 2 (33:59):
So that means I can't imagine what's going on.

Speaker 3 (34:01):
In the locker room and all the bad blood and
everything like that. So this feels like the type of
game that the books could have got caught hanging a
bad number because this opened at two and a half.

Speaker 2 (34:09):
Jumped to three. Now it's three and a half.

Speaker 3 (34:11):
And Chad said there's some books now looking to go
to four. So normally, yes, during the regular season, if
it's a couple weeks in, we probably would be scared
off of this one. And who knows if it ends
up being our only favorite we put in the contest
because the number has moved so much. But money line wise,
you know, taking them to Survivor, I just feel like
it all lines up here for Pittsburgh where this is

(34:33):
the exact scenario, the exact game with a veteran head
coach like Mike McCarthy. They do come out and win, right?
You just don't see their defense sleeping here. It's going
to be a very easy defense to scheme wise if
you're the Steelers, you're basically assuming Tua's whole goal will
get the ball out of his hands within three seconds.
So press coverage, bringing everyone into the box, like maybe

(34:54):
having one high safety. You don't need to go cover
two against Tua.

Speaker 2 (34:57):
I don't know if you have to drop two deep safeties.

Speaker 3 (34:59):
It's just slant the coverage to Drake May's side, you know,
have an extra guy down the box for B.

Speaker 2 (35:04):
John Robison.

Speaker 3 (35:05):
It's like, is this really going to be that complicated
of a game? Is Atlanta really going to steal this
one from us? Yeah, it could happen because it's week one,
but just on paper– people's models it's like most guys
i talk to have this right at four four and
a half so technically you're still getting value here on
pittsburgh if you want to take that side and um

(35:25):
i would say our only hesitation at all would just
be the fact that it is week one and weird
things can happen but game theory for especially for survivor
if you're trying to play a spot here it really
is tough to find another time you're going to use
the stealers as much you want to say well i'll
take them against the browns blah blah blah it's usually
not a smart play to take a team against a
divisional foe in survivor pools. So this one just jumped

(35:47):
out to me. It's like a game where I'm always
looking to try to find a favorite to take. This
one just jumps out of like, okay, is there a
scenario where Pittsburgh just absolutely steamrolls this Falcons team? Yes,
there is because it's just such a good team on
paper veteran wise. Like this defense, I think they're the
highest paid defense on football. They can't shut down Tua
and this Falcons offense. They're going to have real problems

(36:08):
this upcoming season. So, This feels like a tone-setting game
for McCarthy and this Pittsburgh team, and I can't see
them really relaxing in this matchup.

Speaker 1 (36:18):
Totally agree. We are aligned. Matt Mitchell, I'm going to
surprise you here because I want to go to Buffalo-Houston.
Houston is a one-and-a-half-point underdog. Simon talked about it from
sharp calls. You and I are just– we cannot get
over C.J. Stroud, and I think that's a complete and
total blocker for us on this Houston team, like they

(36:43):
weren't even one of the main teams we talked about
for our Super Bowl future exactus. And we love D'Amico
Ryans and we love this defense. So what do you
think the professional bettors, when they're calling you and telling
you about Houston, are saying that we're missing when it
comes to C.J. Shrout or are we just not giving
this defense enough credit to be so dominant?

Speaker 3 (37:07):
Yeah, I would say the pitch on CJ would just be,
this is a guy that has gone to the playoffs
and won a playoff game every year of his career.
And if he didn't have such an incredible, blazing, amazing
rookie year, our standards would be different. And CJ has admitted,
last year was a down year. He needs to play
better than that. You know, offensive line, total reshuffled, could

(37:29):
be better. I think the professionals look at this as,
You have to take Houston because of all the history
of Josh Allen against this Houston defense.

Speaker 2 (37:37):
He has always struggled against them.

Speaker 3 (37:40):
And the fact that we saw last night, you can
have poor quarterback play and still find a way to
win a game. If you have a great defense and
you do get turnovers, which Josh Allen is not a
turnover-happy quarterback, but against really good defenses, he does turn
the ball over.

Speaker 2 (37:56):
You can go through his career.

Speaker 3 (37:58):
He obviously... has worked on the picks. I mean, I
remember two, three years ago, it was like a guarantee
he was going to have some dumb pick in the
red zone. He has worked on it. He's corrected it.
Josh Trump got much better at that. And Joe Brady
is a part of that. He's helped him improve that. So,
you know, as much as I want to give them
the benefit of the doubt and think Joe Brady will
have a game plan here, the more you break down

(38:19):
Houston's defense, they run basically the most basic, easy defense ever.
They're just so talented and good, especially their DNs. It
doesn't matter. Like, it doesn't matter if you've seen that
defensive style and what they're running a thousand times, they
have two DNs that can both run just as fast
as Josh Allen. And there is not another team in
all football that has that. So, you know, between Hunter

(38:41):
and Anderson, those are the game records. Those are the,
that's the change up front. And then the fact that
you have a cornerback that can match up, you know,
with DJ Moore and Stanley, it's like, okay, Stingley, it's,
I'm just trying to find a way to not take
this one shot. And the more we break it down,
it's like, it's plus one and a half on a
home dog with a great defense it feels like we

(39:02):
kind of have to back to texas yeah um yeah
getting called out on just saying i'm only gonna take
him in teasers that that was fair it's like i
i should be more dug in because i had bad
texans plus one and a half i just all in
this show i know it's people's money here i'm trying
to be as safe as i can especially in week
one there is no safe bet right we've we've seen
that a million times over anything can happen in these
games you can't really take a coward's way out in

(39:24):
this one so just matchup wise I think a lot
of things favor the Texans are my only fear is
like this Bill's defense which we know nothing about it's
all these new players what if they are an absolute
train wreck like this is not enough his respect has
been paid to Sean McDermott how great of a defensive

(39:44):
mind he was just because his defense are so terrible
in the playoffs and Between Bills fans and us in
the media, we're all just like, all right, is it
really that big of a loss losing Sean McDermott?

Speaker 2 (39:55):
We'll find out pretty quick here in week one.

Speaker 1 (39:56):
I was going to say.

Speaker 2 (39:58):
If CJ can.

Speaker 3 (39:59):
Put up over 21 points, I feel like they're the
type of team that that's all that defense needs to
win games. If they go above 20 against Josh Allen,
like a 21 to 20 type of game, that does
feel like the type of final we're going to see
here in this matchup. So I say it again, don't
take Houston minus one and a half.

Speaker 2 (40:16):
Shop around. Get that plus number.

Speaker 3 (40:18):
We have been caught so many times taking the flip line.

Speaker 2 (40:23):
You want to get the plus number here if you
can on Houston.

Speaker 1 (40:26):
All right. Well, it's funny you bring that up because
the next game, Green Bay at Minnesota, Minnesota minus one
and a half. And we talked about this on Tuesday
that the flip line was scaring us off a little
bit because we have been burned on that so many
times and we've won on that so many times. When
we've gotten the dog at one and a half before

(40:47):
the number flipped to them being a favorite. we have
won and we've lost on the other side. Here's my
theory on this one. I'm not sure that past applies
here because other times the line flip was really dictated
by the money, right? Like it, we knew what the

(41:07):
rosters were going to be. The variables were known and
the number moved because somebody came in and a group
of people came in and they liked it at plus
one and a half and it moved to minus one
and a half. And we had to make a decision
based on the one and a half, minus one and
a half. This wasn't dictated by moves or a bad line.
It was dictated by personnel. The line moved the day

(41:29):
Kyler Murray was announced. So are we betting into Minnesota
with Kyler Murray as a one and a half point
favorite because that's who we think is better? I'm not
sure that the line move issue should be scaring us away.

Speaker 3 (41:47):
Well, this definitely moved, though, because of professional work. This
is another game split right down the middle of public
all over Green Bay and the professionals all over Minnesota,
which I understand totally, right? You have a Green Bay
team that's been in the playoffs multiple years, Jordan Love.
I mean, we talked to all the fantasy football guys
they have wise, like the receiving core is really talented.

(42:08):
Fans just aren't going to break down Green Bay's offensive line.
Fans aren't going to go in and break down Green
Bay's defensive scheme and the difference that Michael Parsons makes
to that team because their whole defense is basically built
around him at this point, right? They just do not
have talent defensively. And the fact that he's missing this
game against a mobile quarterback, everything just keeps pointing to Kyler.

(42:29):
That's my fear here in this game is it's one
that feels too easy, and I do not get why
it's not two and a half or three. Like Minnesota,
I have them graded so much higher than Green Bay.
Just right now is week one, right? Because it's just...
Green Bay is that bad luck, right? They have no
Josh Jacobs. They have no Micah Parsons. Those are two
guys you could say are both top three, top four players.

Speaker 2 (42:52):
On this team.

Speaker 3 (42:53):
On the flip side, they have everybody that, I mean,
I'm trying to think the, the thing that might be hurting,
I guess you could say the Vikings is they have
no pass rush. They have no star guy on that
D line that puts fear into the quarterbacks, right? They don't,
have those type of guys. We've seen in this scheme,
guys just pop up.

Speaker 2 (43:12):
Out of nowhere.

Speaker 1 (43:12):
Yeah, they manufacture it. We thought that when they lost
Hunter and Andrew Van Ginkle was coming in, all of
a sudden Van Ginkle's getting double-digit sacks.

Speaker 3 (43:25):
And people have called me out on it. My pattern's
very simple here. I back defenses in week one. I
bet unders in week one because we've just seen it.

Speaker 2 (43:34):
We have the data.

Speaker 3 (43:34):
These teams that don't play in preseason– The offense has
always used the first two, three weeks as their preseason. Like,
to get right, guys are out of sync. I mean, Seattle,
I know you could say it was because Sam Darnold
got knocked out. He had like 100 penalties. I mean,
100 yards and penalties.

Speaker 2 (43:49):
They had so many pre-snap motion penalties.

Speaker 3 (43:51):
So many little stupid things. Because these guys just aren't
in rhythm. That's why I always lean towards a good defense. Steelers, Vikings, Seattle,
you know, you're just.

Speaker 2 (44:02):
Yeah, Houston. I mean, they always want to look towards.

Speaker 3 (44:05):
the better defense, especially when the other team does not
have a good defense at all, which in all those
matches we just announced, for the most part, other than
the Patriots, all those other teams don't really have good defenses.

Speaker 2 (44:14):
So I'm really interested.

Speaker 3 (44:17):
To see what the Packers are like here because, you know,
that number was so interesting and like you talked about
in the summer that the bookmakers, are they really saying
the difference between Kyler Murray and nine is three points?

Speaker 2 (44:31):
I don't know.

Speaker 3 (44:32):
Like, I feel like that was a number they hung
thinking it was already gonna be kyler and then once
it was announced it was kyler so much money came
and they did flip it so um another game where
yeah if we're debating between them houston or the giant
or cleveland i could get there in minnesota but like
i said it's it's always tough where it's like we've
been burned by this number flip so many times um

(44:52):
but i do think it's still undervalued if you want
to take the vikings i said i have a two
and a half i have a three you want to
take the one and a half i said you're getting
good value on minnesota but um we've we've seen this
matchup before right lafleur i have to go hit up
our guy i mean he was almost positive lafleur in
september he's one of the best coaches against the spread
just like dan campbell so not trying to lean too

(45:14):
much in the past performances because those were way better
green bay teams you have to think those were two
years of that was with aaron rogers mvp runs and
green bay had a much better defense in the past
as well and offensive line so It just, this, all
these things feels like it's lining up for, I think
people who have picked the Packers when it's division and
they're high on the Packers, this week one might be
a rude awakening for them. That's like, oh, this is

(45:36):
not Packers team of the past. It's going to be
all on Jordan Love. And in this scheme, you know, defensively,
I think Jordan Love could get turned over here. I
know he doesn't turn the ball over much, but this
Vikings defense, I feel like this is the exact type
of game they could get after Jordan Love.

Speaker 1 (45:51):
Last game I want to talk about to consider for
our final five. you mentioned it off the top of
the show and I actually left it in not knowing
it was part of sharp calls in the script prior
to that, because we talked about considering it if the
line got to three and some threes are popping up,
any remaining two and a half look like they're headed
to three. I think we do think the Giants could

(46:13):
have a sneaky good defense. Their pass rush could be
really good. And like the Bengals, we like the Cowboys.
We're high on the Cowboys. But we don't know what
their defense is going to be. We think over a
season it's going to get better. But in the first game,
it feels like this is a huge public side for

(46:35):
a high-profile team on the road, in the division, in
a bit of a tough spot.

Speaker 3 (46:43):
Yeah, it's the reason I keep harping on all these
first-time offensive coordinators and first-time defensive coordinators. It is a
big deal. I mean, we could say, well, it's because
Sam Darnold got hurt last night. They scored zero points
in the first half, which is totally fair. But we
could also say, well, it's a first-time OC. That's a
hard matchup last night in Seattle for a first-time OC
against a variable in that defense. And yes, in the

(47:04):
second half, you figured it out, of course. See, it
could be said here about the Cowboys. This is a
first-time OC against a Giants team that, as much as
you want to make fun of, if Neighbors is fully healthy,
if Scataboo is fully healthy, I mean, another kid on
the outside field is really talented.

Speaker 2 (47:20):
They have weapons offensively.

Speaker 3 (47:22):
The question's always been about That offensive line and protecting
Dart and keeping him healthy.

Speaker 2 (47:26):
I mean, he's healthy right now. The offensive line, for
the most part, is healthy. We've talked.

Speaker 3 (47:31):
Their defense, which is basically everything the Giants are built on,
they're up front guys. This is their dream scenario, going
against a banged-up Cowboys front. You have two starters potentially
missing this game for the Cowboys. How can that not
be a big deal for a guy like Dak, who's
a pocket passer?

Speaker 2 (47:48):
Yeah. I agreed with a lot of sharp calls.

Speaker 3 (47:52):
A lot of guys calling me up saying that I
was letting my biases get in the way here because
me and you are both down on the Giants this
upcoming season.

Speaker 2 (47:57):
It doesn't matter.

Speaker 3 (47:58):
I can't adjust and bet on the week one. So
I said to people, it's all about the number. Like,
if you're getting me plus three, no-brainer. Two and a half,
that's a real conversation for both of us, especially come
Sunday morning about getting them in our contest. But this
feels like one of the more sharp games of the week, right?
I think a lot of professionals are lining up on it.
The public– like we talked about the darling of this

(48:19):
Cowboys team, everyone kind of loves them. A lot of
people are picking them though in the division and the
fact that they're getting two and a half, that looks
like a great bet to them. So like we've talked about,
I'm really interested to see where the market goes with
this one on Sunday night, because if the public does
get absolutely demolished, I think this stays at two and
a half. If public has an absolute field day and

(48:39):
the dogs get crushed, we could get all this, all
this all the way up to three and a half
on the Giants team, which would be a no brainer
smash spot for me at that point.

Speaker 2 (48:47):
So yeah, I'm invested. I bet the Giants are the
plus three.

Speaker 3 (48:50):
If we're stuck at two and a half, that's a
real conversation we'll have to have.

Speaker 2 (48:53):
But everyone out there, shop around.

Speaker 3 (48:55):
Get the best number here because even our friends over
at Polymarket, they ticked up to three and a half,
and then immediately someone traded a pretty big number, and
it went right back down to two and a half. So, yeah,
something to be on the lookout for. I don't know
if we'll get back to three and a half, but
there is very smart big money waiting for that Giants
number to get back up to three and a half.

Speaker 1 (49:15):
Look, we said on third on Tuesday that we felt
like this might be a little bit of a trap
if you're betting the Cowboys. So, um, all right, we
got a lot of games that we're going to have
to once.

Speaker 2 (49:24):
That too, I forgot to give it up. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (49:26):
Um, divisional home dogs. That's what we talked about. Divisional
home dogs, uh, might be the last like 15 years.
There are 11 of five against the spread on week
one as a home dog. So, there is historical data
to backing up, just picking these teams. And that's why
we like Minnesota, right?

Speaker 2 (49:43):
But they flipped.

Speaker 3 (49:44):
So it's just, if you're always looking for those trends
and that stuff, it's, it's rare in week one, you
get these home dogs. And when you do, it's usually
a really great opportunity to bet on these teams.

Speaker 1 (49:53):
Simon, I think we're going to have eight, eight games
in which we got to choose five for our Sunday
morning show. Don't forget. We're back Sunday mornings where we
will give our final five. We will be back Sunday
nights live after the, The late games end before Sunday
Night Football begins. We'll review how we did during the day.

Speaker 2 (50:11):
We've got to do our Survivor too.

Speaker 3 (50:13):
Oh, no.

Speaker 1 (50:13):
We've got a lot to do right now still. The
games that we'll probably end up choosing from, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Houston, Minnesota, Miami,
and the Giants. I mentioned the Discord grouper of the
week earlier. Join the Discord. Pre-order now. The number, my book,

(50:36):
it's out in January. Go to readthenumber.com. Order the book.
You'll get an invite. Help us raise some money for St.

Speaker 3 (50:44):
Jude's.

Speaker 1 (50:45):
We had six choices to choose from for the bet
I am making. I will do this every single week.
As I mentioned, Jacksonville was the laggard, just four votes
out of 91. Second place, Simon. Philadelphia Eagles money line,
minus 218. In first place, I mentioned it earlier. Pittsburgh

(51:06):
Steelers got them at minus 178. That actually ticked down
a little bit for minus 185. So I don't know
what's happening there, but we did take the Steelers money line,
minus 178 for our Discord group or Polymarket has that
right now. Steelers over the Falcons currently trading at 64%. Simon,

(51:30):
do you agree with the Discord and their votes?

Speaker 2 (51:35):
Yeah, love Pittsburgh. Hopefully we don't mush it.

Speaker 1 (51:37):
Don't mush it. We'll report the results on Sunday. I'm
loving the conversation in the Discord. Honestly, it's a blast.
We were active last night for the game. So join
us at readthenumber.com. Make your voice heard. Prayer to the book.
Get the invite. Underdog, Moneyline, Parlay.

Speaker 3 (51:57):
My dog likes your dog.

Speaker 1 (52:00):
Your dog likes my dog. Simon. What do we think here?

Speaker 2 (52:05):
If we're just doing two teams?

Speaker 1 (52:08):
I think so, yeah.

Speaker 3 (52:08):
I feel like we've got to go Houston and the Giants.
So Houston is plus 100. Giants are plus 140.

Speaker 1 (52:18):
Not Miami. Not Carolina.

Speaker 3 (52:21):
We could, but those teams, we have three and a half.

Speaker 2 (52:24):
Yeah. So that's why it's just.

Speaker 3 (52:27):
We could, but we're really thinking that game ends on
a field goal, honestly.

Speaker 2 (52:31):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (52:32):
Favorites... parlay this is a money line parlay our favorites
money line parlay.

Speaker 3 (52:41):
Favorites money line parlay we gotta get pittsburgh obviously yeah
don't have a choice and gotta go philly and philly
well what we let's do three team because just because
the yeah yeah third one i know Because we could
do like a huge chalk one if we wanted to.

Speaker 1 (53:02):
That's what I was going to say. Do we go
with like Detroit or the Chargers?

Speaker 3 (53:09):
Yeah. I mean, Chargers are minus 500. Detroit's minus 310.
So let's take Detroit. Yeah, that's a big difference.

Speaker 2 (53:17):
Let's take Detroit. Way better.

Speaker 1 (53:18):
So our favorite parlay is going to be Pittsburgh. It's
going to be Philly and it's going to be Detroit.
Our underdog money line parlay, we're going to do Houston
and the New York. Giants.

Speaker 3 (53:30):
All right.

Speaker 1 (53:31):
Give me your biggest bets. Pull up those pants and.

Speaker 3 (53:34):
Be a man.

Speaker 2 (53:35):
Oh, man.

Speaker 3 (53:37):
I mean, there's just so much I've invested in. I
guess for dogs, Carolina, very, very large position on them
at plus three. I try to bet more the three
and a half, but I'm really having invested the plus
three number. Obviously, we talked about Texans. I have a

(53:57):
ton of money on teasers started that more obviously now
on their side, you know, Tampa, another team I've been
betting for three, four months. And I would not be shocked,
not be shocked come Sunday. If the giants had to
be one of my bigger, you're going to say that
I didn't really bet that much all summer. Cause I just,
like I said, I was very down on them and just,
I did not buy the hype, but for this matchup,

(54:20):
the fact that it's getting to three, I have, I
have no choice, honestly. It's like, that's, That's an egregious movement,
way too much value on the Giants team to pass
on and would not be shocked coming Sunday morning if
that ends up being my biggest bet of the day.
Just been betting it every day the last three days
since it's gotten to three and I'm going to keep
seeing that. Like I said, Polymarket got the alert, touched

(54:41):
three and a half and I immediately put a ton
of money into it and it went right back down
to two and a half. So that's what I'm really
hoping on. If it goes back to three and a half,
I'm going to try to get down more money on it,
but No issues taking the three. No issue taking the
two and a half. That's the best you can find
here on this giant side.

Speaker 1 (54:56):
Sharp versus square, Simon. First one of the year. Reminder,
Chad's choice was Tampa Bay. Simon says was Carolina. We're
welcome to make those our choices for this as well.
But I defer to you. You won last year. You

(55:17):
can go with your first bet.

Speaker 2 (55:18):
I mean, I guess I'll just do them because I
just spent five minutes talking.

Speaker 3 (55:21):
I'll go giants. I'll take, I'll take the three for
New York.

Speaker 1 (55:25):
Um, all right. So you're taking the giants plus three,
just because I put myself out there. You know what
I'm going to do?

Speaker 2 (55:36):
I do not.

Speaker 1 (55:38):
I'll take the New York jets jets. I'm going to,
I'll live with it. I'll live with the shame. I'll
live with the agony. I'll live with the ridicule. Um,
I'll take the New York. football jets week one survivor.
I feel like we're going with the Steelers.

Speaker 3 (55:56):
Yeah, it's, it's all game theory. So if you're in
one contest, you want to play safe as possible.

Speaker 2 (56:01):
Okay.

Speaker 3 (56:02):
Go, go chargers. Like I got no issue doing that.
Hardball has never lost week one. He's six and oh,
his career chargers are a great team would, would be
very shocking if they got back.

Speaker 2 (56:12):
Door to lost that game against Cardinals.

Speaker 3 (56:14):
So yeah, if I'm, if I, you know, someone like me,
that's in 30, 40 survivor pools, maybe, I'll do 25%
or maybe half on the Chargers. But the other half
was on the Raiders. I've taken them out now and
I'm going Pittsburgh. So it's just pure game theory. Don't
know when else I'll use Pittsburgh.

Speaker 2 (56:31):
Use them now. Get them out of the way.

Speaker 3 (56:33):
Don't have to worry about the rest of the season.
So that's the play for me. I know some people's
models still have the Raiders at number three. So they
have one Chargers number two. They got Pittsburgh number three.
They got Raiders number four. They have Jaguars. So If
you still want to do Raiders, it's not the worst spot.
But me and Chad told you, the fact they're down,
potentially they're two best offensive players on already a bad team.

(56:56):
It's just not worth the risk for me with the
Raiders here. So I can't believe I switched them out
because I was so happy to have them a month
ago in Survivor. Now I'm totally out on it. So, yeah, Pittsburgh, Chargers,
those are my two teams.

Speaker 1 (57:10):
All right, listen, that's our show. If you're listening to
this right away on Thursday– A reminder, we do like
San Francisco plus three and a half tonight versus the
Rams in Australia. Simon and I are going to be
back on Sunday morning with our final NFL week one bets,
our five favorite bets. This has been Sharper Square presented

(57:33):
by Polymarket, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or
listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video, subscribe
to the channel, download us from Spotify, Apple Pods. Wherever
you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars,
say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until Sunday,
love you.

Speaker 2 (57:50):
On an autumn eve, we still believe that elves are
about and fairies come out to bob for apples and prizes.
But goblins and sprites play havoc all night and tumble
in different disguises.