June 16, 2026 • 32 mins
Golf’s most challenging major returns to the Hamptons! The U.S. Open tees off on Thursday at Long Island’s beautiful Shinnecock Hills Golf Club. Today we cover every betting angle in an episode sponsored by ZBiotics. Go to https://zbiotics.com/SHARPORSQUARE and use SHARPORSQUARE at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.
Joining hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter is returning guest Spencer Aguiar, a two-time Fantasy Sports Writer Association Golf Writer of the Year, last year’s winner of Research Article of the Year, and one of the smartest golf modelers around. Shinnecock Hills Golf Club is famously beautiful, and landed at No. 5 in Golf Magazine’s Top 100 golf courses in the world. But it can also make for a challenging U.S. Open. What factors stand out when you look at this course? What kind of play will be rewarded or punished? Plus, we look at the odds on fan favorites like Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler, plus value in the finishing position markets and in head-to-heads. Everything you need to profit on this year's U.S. Open! #Volume
0:03:00 - START
0:18:00 - BEST BETS FROM TOP OF THE BOARD
0:26:00 - BEST BETS FOR MATCHUPS AND MAKE CUT
0:34:00 - BEST LONGSHOT BETS FOR US OPEN
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bett.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
Speaker 1 (00:07):
This is the show that makes the squares sharper and
makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Moman,
I am joined as always, buy, my co host, my BFF,
my companion, Mike Cafadre, Professional Better, Simon Hunter, l O,
Simon Jah.
Speaker 3 (00:22):
I can't believe was that the first weekend we've every
texted about soccer in our entire lives?
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Crazy right?
Speaker 1 (00:27):
So yeah, me, you and Dubundo Anthony Debundo, we're texting
about Morocco.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
Time Spain was in this. I was in New York
over the weekend.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
My kid had graduated from college in Philly on Friday,
and then I went into the city on Saturday and
me and are good friend sack Wickersham and another good
friend of ours went to see Bono interview Bruce Springsteen
at the Tribeca Film Festival. But only all we were
(01:00):
doing was trying to find bars before and after to
watch World Cup and then watch more World Cup and
then watch the Knicks. And I was in some bar
watching Morocco. They went up on Spain and MEU and
Dubundo started texting, because holy shit, that was amazing.
Speaker 4 (01:17):
Yeah, it was. Uh it's if you're a Spa, a
fan of like we.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Are, of all sports and obviously have all things betting,
doesn't get much better than this past weekend. Right, you
had the NHL Finals, the NBA Finals, and the World Cup.
And I mean, I know people probably it's a little
late now, but you know, as a fan of soccer,
that was the biggest USA win ever and people can say, well,
(01:42):
they've gone further. I don't think Americas understand how big
of a deal it is to beat that Paraguay team.
That's why all these international people are like, what in
the world, because Paraguay their last ten games, they didn't
conceded more than one goal, let alone four, and the
pressure that was on that USA team playing, you know,
that goal obviously helped a lot, right to help them relax.
(02:02):
And you could say all that, but that just for
like again, the cold, easy flat fell in their face.
Speaker 4 (02:07):
Right.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
The hype, the atmosphere, it was all built so high.
I just can't get over at USA winning that four
to one, and yeah, something that love soccer. The I
don't know if you've been watched any of the cover
that's on Fox Sports. It's Terrynree and this guy named Ibrahimovic,
And yeah, I love Ibrahivivich. He's like one of my
favorite players ever. Actually I could sing a song. Chat
(02:31):
if you want a song, rare chance of me actually
sing an English song.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
Oh my goodness, please.
Speaker 4 (02:37):
Americans don't really get it.
Speaker 3 (02:39):
Like he's half joking Abramovich and he's also being dead serious.
This man truly thinks he's the greatest player ever and
he has got and to me he is one of
the best players ever. But when he played for man United,
I went to a few games when he was actually
on the team. Is when I was really into min United.
I literally would just fly from Philly. You can fly
direct to man United to Manchester. I'd go to a
(03:01):
game with Saturday and be back home by Sunday. And
my favorite songs. I don't know if it's age appropriates,
if you're listening with your kids, take a quick thirty
second break here, but it goes six foot five, hard
as fuck, gets the reds excited, stick city up your
asc as, bah Man. You know he did we yea Manyah, No,
(03:24):
he did. And Ibrahimitch was a great great player. He
came from United. Basically first season I got injured and
that was all she wrot But he was just an
all time great player. So him on the coverage, even
him and Henri again, these are the best players in
the world. They were stunned after that USA game. That's
why I'm trying to wrap around people how big of
a deal it was. So yeah, it's this could be
(03:46):
as good as it gets. I hope it isn't. Right
Australia is the next test. It's gonna be a great game,
and I'm really confident our side in our squad. But
that was as good as the game you could possibly
have for you United. So right now, as a fan
of the World Cup, I'm loving and obviously the Knicks won,
and that had all the Brazilian fans in the city
like that whole the whole part of the World Cup
(04:07):
and all these international fans being here.
Speaker 4 (04:08):
Like I said, I didn't feel it wasn't feeling in Philly.
Speaker 3 (04:11):
I felt that this past weekend like the Ecuadorian fans
taking over the city of Phidelphia.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
They're everywhere.
Speaker 3 (04:16):
It's it's been really really cool, and I'm I'm just
so happy they spread it out.
Speaker 5 (04:19):
Rob.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
We have a month left of this right, so it's
it's just the beginning. You can tell how far it up.
Speaker 4 (04:25):
I him. It's just been such a fun weekend in sports.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
I'm gonna miss gonna miss basketball hockey, but thank god
we have the World Cup.
Speaker 4 (04:31):
Chow.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
Well, look, the city was on fire, sometimes literally on Saturday.
Kudos to Jason Timp by the way, because we had
him on the show, host of Hoops Tonight, the podcast
on the Volume podcast network, and we consistently tried to
push him into taking the Spurs. You and I both
decided we were on the Spurs and seven for sort
of this specific bet, and he would not back away.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
He thought the Knicks could sweep this.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
He then moved it to Nickson six, just because I
think there was a little hedging there, but he never
once wavered from the Knicks. And even I, as someone
who on this show talked about how much I hate
the Knicks, I came around. Brunson is so fun to
root for, Mike Brown is so fun to root for.
This team is really special in terms of how they
(05:20):
connect with people who are watching basketball and how they
connected with the city of New York. I mean look,
I think Bono wind Springsteen was the lowlight of my
day on Saturday between It's one of those great days
that you don't get anymore, especially like when you're older
and have kids. Where me and Seth and another good
(05:41):
buddy of ours named Phil who is one of to
cess closest friends from high school I've known forever. Like
we got to go start drinking at like three in
the afternoon and like we were at a legendary bar
and for a backer called Walkers. Then we went to
the event, then we went to another bar, then we
went to dinner, then into another bar to watch the game,
(06:03):
and it was just you just felt light and free
and like there was so much joy.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
In the city. It was really, it's freaking remarkable. It
was great totally.
Speaker 3 (06:13):
It props to New York City, like the first city
that has the most people in the world in a
concentrated area.
Speaker 4 (06:19):
Wasn't all that bad afterwards when it happened.
Speaker 3 (06:21):
At the time, I was like, oh my god, they're
going to burn that city to the ground. Ended up
not being that terrible. The craziest part was someone posted
a video of the night before they're on the street,
cars are burning it's like a riot all this cast
and it was him. At the next morning, nine am,
little tables outside, people eating breakfast. Yeah, the New yor
only in New York City, where twelve hours later you
would never know there was just a ride on the street.
Speaker 4 (06:42):
So yeah, just an incredible weekend.
Speaker 1 (06:44):
I gotta say there was probably less violence than a
normal Saturday night, honest, honest to God, because like everyone
was so happy and joyful and focused on that. It
wasn't sort of dispersed violence that there normally is in
New York. I thought it was amazing. It was great
and correct. The congrats to the Knicks fans. I have
been watching all the videos of how joyful people are
(07:04):
and sports is the best. Anytime you get jaded about sports.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
Something like this happens and it's just it's just freaking awesome.
Speaker 1 (07:15):
And guess what, Simon, we get another chance to celebrate
sports in the great state of New York. For the
six time, golf's most challenging tournament, the US Open, is
returning to the Hampdens. The US Open tees off on
Thursday at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Long Island. We're
(07:36):
gonna be covering it from every betting angle with returning
guest Spencer Aggie are two time Fantasy Sports Writer Association
Golf Writer of Year, last year's winner of Research Article
of the Year. We've had him on before. He is
one of the smartest golf guys we've had on. Spencer
(07:56):
from Las Vegas.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
How you doing brother, I'm doing well.
Speaker 6 (08:01):
Thank you. I appreciate you guys having me on again.
Speaker 5 (08:03):
I will say this, simon beautiful singing to lead into
the show. I'm probably I don't know what the odds
would be on it plus a billion to actually sing
on this show. So if you guys can get me
to do that, that's the big money ticket to have
out there.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
Well, let's see if we can get you in by
the end of the show.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
Spencer Shinna Kak gorgeous course number five in golf Dieget
Golf Magazine's Top one hundred golf courses in the world,
can also make for a miserable, brutal US Open course.
Fit is always important when you're talking about golf. It's
(08:42):
become a really important metric for betters. What stands out
in terms of the factors, what kind of play is
going to be rewarded or punished.
Speaker 6 (08:53):
Yeah, you kind of mentioned it at the beginning.
Speaker 5 (08:55):
Like Shinnakok is widely regarded as one of the best
championship tests that we get in this country. And I
think it's a funny answer when you consider that if
we look at twenty eighteen, the last time it was
played here, on average on the PGA Tour, players hit
about sixty percent of the fairways here, you get seventy
one percent of a made fairway rate.
Speaker 6 (09:17):
And you hear that.
Speaker 5 (09:18):
Answer, and you would think that there's going to be
the straightforward setup for ease. Accuracy is going to be
the number one answer to the game, which, in fairness,
it is, but a lot of that is deeply rooted
into you just cannot miss. And we see this over
and over again of where you take that thirty percent
rate of people missing the fairway and you're essentially dead
(09:40):
off the tee. There's this five inch thick fescue rough.
If you are wayward, it's a seven four hundred and
forty yard layout, which means that if you're going to
be conservative off the tee, now all of a sudden,
your second shot finds these secondary problems here into these
fiery green complexes because you are laying back off the
tee and you're not getting the most out of your
(10:02):
first shot. So, you know, for me, when I look
at this venue, and I'm somebody that wishes we had
more data to be able to pull from. You can
pull from two thousand and eighteen, you can pull from
two thousand and four, but the course is marginally different.
They made the fairways a little bit wider this go around,
and I do wonder from a statistical perspective, if that
(10:24):
changes anything, Like it if players like Bryson Deshambo and
Rory McElroy really decide to get aggressive off the tea
and kind of do this risk reward and see if
it pays off. And you know, we'll see if it
does or it doesn't. But when I ran a model
for this, the number one thing that I noticed is
good shots are going to get rewarded. Bad shots get punished.
(10:47):
And to answer your question, Chad, I don't know if
there's a specific game type that is the most geared
to find success.
Speaker 6 (10:55):
And for me, when we.
Speaker 5 (10:57):
Are putting together mathematical equations and try to figure out
the answer, I think that's why people love this tournament
so much because you can be accurate and you can
find success. You can be good around the green, you
can be a good putter. As long as you're good
in some of those areas, you kind of have this
blueprint for success. So you know, of the four majors,
(11:18):
I would say, and you know, we'll play into the
name of the show here, like this is probably one
of the sharper majors that you can find for betters.
I think if you're trying to be a square better
out there, the Masters the Open Championship are probably the
two that kind of yield that for whatever reason. This historically,
and this is when you guys mentioned at the beginning
(11:38):
when I won best Research article, what I talked about
is how the data played into every single tournament and
where the sharps and the squares landed for everything, and
where you could find more success over a five year period.
And the US Open was the most sharp test of
any of the majors. So I think that comes down
to just overall skill and finding the right players, and
(11:59):
you can do that at a US Open, where you
can't do that at some of these other majors as easily.
Speaker 1 (12:03):
What about wind, it's supposed to be nice here on
the East coast, But is wind going to be an issue?
Speaker 5 (12:10):
Wind's always prevalent when you were on a coast.
Speaker 6 (12:15):
I'm trying to figure.
Speaker 5 (12:17):
Out the best way to word this to your guys's audience.
Like I think if we threw this into football terms,
golf is really unique at the end of the day
because in football, you know who somebody's playing against. There's
factors that come into play, there's game scripts that change
because of the weather.
Speaker 6 (12:37):
In golf, it's not quite as simple as that.
Speaker 5 (12:41):
Yes, you are playing against the field and you know
who you are, but you're also playing against the course
and yourself. And when you look at weather specifically. For
these examples, tea times matter, and I think sometimes they
matter too much to people that are running models. Like
I always say to people inside of my discord, like
(13:03):
if you're waiting on the exact key time of a player,
you're gonna end up missing the movement. Like you kind
of have to be quick to act in a lot
of these situations in golf. But golf, unlike a lot
of these other sports, do have the chance to where
you can get yourself blown off the course if you
get into the wrong end of the weather. So one
of the ways that I tried to combat that, or
(13:23):
I always try to combat that, is I just have
an overall weather profile in my model. There's a ten
to twenty percent weight that I did throw into some
of those weather categories. There are gonna be some players
that are going to get the good end of the draw.
There are some players that are gonna get the bad
end of the draw. But at the end of the day,
two things happen. First, everybody's gonna get bad weather on
the coast. It's it's gonna be one of those things
(13:45):
where it's going to come and go.
Speaker 6 (13:47):
Two, I'm going to.
Speaker 5 (13:48):
Make enough bets to where, even if you get some
of them wrong, you're hoping that what you're building from
a mathematical perspective is going to put you on the
right end on enough of these situations. So it's gonna matter.
I want to come on here and be like, don't
look at the weather. The weather matters. But I also
think it's so baked into a lot of the movement
that it almost becomes like a negative in the grand
(14:12):
scheme of it.
Speaker 4 (14:14):
Yeah, you can test to a chat. It's been honestly
dry in the northeast.
Speaker 3 (14:17):
It's we really need a ran and most of our
storms are getting lately it's been the one hour quick hitters.
Speaker 4 (14:22):
It's not really prolonged rain.
Speaker 3 (14:23):
So I'm always into their rain, especially when it comes
to golf. It does matter, right, like you're talking about.
It does affect the playing course, and some guys team
off at the wrong time can affect their game totally.
Speaker 4 (14:34):
But just look at the odds right nowt of hard Rock.
Speaker 3 (14:37):
There's three golf players right now listed with better odds
than fourteen oh one. Right we have rom fourteen oh one,
Rory eleven oh one, and Scottie.
Speaker 4 (14:44):
A plus five point fifty. Is it still just Schefler's game?
We're all just are we just going chalk here? Or
are we?
Speaker 3 (14:51):
Are we thinking about the other guys that are for
like the other you know, eight other players on are
forty to one.
Speaker 4 (14:56):
I've heard nods you don't like anyone in that whole group.
Speaker 5 (14:59):
I rarely give this answer of going near the top
of the boarden situations. I usually try to find value
in golf and that comes further down the board. And
I will say this for major championships. It's one of
the things that you will notice there's almost a stigma
attached to all these events where the general public does
not believe anybody but the top names are going to win,
(15:20):
and a lot of times that if you are going
to get drift on a board, it's gonna come into
that triple digit zone of a lot of those names
that get pushed back ten twenty points higher than they
should be. And I think that sportsbooks condense the top
of the board into kind of unbettable ranges a lot
of times to where you're probably gonna get the winner
from there, but you get this heavily juice board where
there's a ton of hold percentage that you're finding. And
(15:43):
I kind of thought that was going to be the
case at least a couple weeks.
Speaker 6 (15:47):
Ago, and it's kind of changed for me.
Speaker 5 (15:49):
When I built my model this go around, I kind
of think Scotty's going to win this golf tournament, and
there has been this.
Speaker 6 (15:58):
Scotty was three to one to.
Speaker 5 (16:00):
Win every golf tournament for almost the first three months
of the year, and he's underachieved in and he's underachieved
in a really weird way because from a statistical perspective,
I ran things for the last twenty four rounds, and
the last time I came on, I talked about how
I run my model longer than most people do. I
like to have that long term outlook. I don't want
(16:22):
that short term stuff that's going to inflate or deflate
numbers on it. But with Scotty, the stigma around him
right now is that he cannot find success.
Speaker 6 (16:32):
He is struggling.
Speaker 5 (16:33):
You see him yelling at his caddy, you see him
having these outbursts. He's having outbursts on media members, He's
having outbursts on pretty much everybody who's getting around him.
And I think that what that has done is it
is inflated a price now for Scotty. And when I
ran the numbers, I wanted to look at the short
term outlook here and for Scotty over the last twenty
(16:55):
four rounds, even without any of the victories, and even
without some of this high end success that we expect
from him, he is still far and away the number
one golfer in my model. I ran seven statistical categories
from various degrees of range of time. Scotty was number
one and substantially number one in every single area. And
(17:17):
I kind of go back to that last twenty four
rounds of him being substantially number one there. While everybody
wants to talk about what we've seen from Fitzpatrick and
what we've seen from Cameron Young and some of those names,
and sure.
Speaker 6 (17:30):
Like I like Fitzpatrick this week.
Speaker 5 (17:31):
I think that this is this prototypical sort of a
course for him where he can find success. And there's
a handful of names that probably make logical sense to
go back, but I took the more bullish route on Scotty.
And if you shop around, you can find this number
six and a half seven to one in some locations.
(17:52):
And like I said, it's not something that I normally do,
but I am playing the chalk here with Scotty, and
I think that it kind of goes back to the
answer that I said at the very beginning that if
there's no specific skill set, that it's rewarding and it's
just rewarding good shots. Scotty is the best player in
the world at picking the target, hitting a spot, and
(18:12):
doing what he needs to do to find success. And
when we don't have these thirty under par winners in
the US Open, is going to deliver something that's closer
to even par to win this. That's kind of the
Scotty Scheffler blueprint, where I think he's more likely to
win one of those tournaments.
Speaker 1 (18:26):
I love that we're talking about Scotty Scheffler underachieving when
he just finished second at the Masters.
Speaker 2 (18:33):
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Speaker 2 (20:33):
Spencer beyond the outrights.
Speaker 1 (20:35):
You've come on the show and given out some really
thoughtful ideas about betting head to head finishing in position markets.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
What are you targeting in those groups right now?
Speaker 5 (20:48):
Yeah, I don't have a ton of matchup exposures so
far this week. I mean the one that I did
back in I think unfortunately the number has moved pretty
heavily across the board. But I'll give it on the
show for one reason because I think that there's ways
to back this player and maybe fade the other one.
But I took Seawu Kim over Justin Rose. Two parts
(21:10):
to this. The first one is see Wu Kim. This
is a player if we're talking about underachieving and where
the market is on him, I think this is a
top ten golfer in the world, and because we don't
have a victory from him this season, the market doesn't
necessarily treat him as that He opened at fifty to
one to win this golf tournament, which I think, in fairness,
is a pretty good look there at fifty to one
(21:33):
without that victory. And I kind of made the argument
if Sea Wu had won once, what would his price be?
You could probably chop this into like the thirty to
one range, and he's been in contention so many times
to win so many of these tournaments give him a
second victory and all of a sudden, now you're in
like that Matthew Fitzpatrick sort of a range. And that's
kind of where my model has Seawu Kim when it
(21:55):
comes to win equity.
Speaker 6 (21:57):
So I think you get the good end of Seawu.
Speaker 5 (21:59):
Kim there and then and Justin Rose is a name
that tends to burn me in major championships sometimes, like
we saw it at the Masters.
Speaker 6 (22:06):
We saw it at the PGA Championship.
Speaker 5 (22:09):
You know. I talked about the Masters specifically being like
the most square tournament where it feels like square betters
kind of get the right end of some of these
Justin Rose spots. You look at Justin Rose, Yeah, there's
a lot of upside a matchup bet you want safety
at the end.
Speaker 6 (22:24):
Of the day.
Speaker 5 (22:25):
Rose has missed four of his last five cuts at
the US Open, and I think it's this boom or
bus profile that he presents to the mix. So when
this Open in that minus one twenty range, I thought
that was way too short. Unfortunately the market agreed, and
that thing is kind of bloomed up. But whether it's
a fade of rose or a backing of Sea Wou,
I think that's something that you can look at. And
then the other one I will give is a mad
(22:46):
cut bet and it's it's a plus number here. So
if you're looking for a little bit of value, Andrew
Putnam to make the cut at plus one oh five,
this is a golfer that is not going to be
a household name to people, but it's a golfer that
also had been just stringing together, made cuts over and
over again, and I had them at the PGA Championship
(23:08):
at a very similar price and ends up making the
weekend falters on Saturday and Sunday to fifty fifth place.
Speaker 6 (23:15):
But cash is the ticket.
Speaker 5 (23:16):
We see them last week miss the cut at the
RBC Canadian Open, and I think it's that classic situation
of like you'd like to see the ball go through
the hoop right before one of the biggest tournaments of
the year. You don't want to have a five over
round that you shoot and miss a cut. But I
think in this particular situation, want it enhance the price
here at plus one oh five so you get a
(23:38):
little bit of value because of that misscut. And then
the second thing that transpired is the US Open is
a really fun event because there's qualifying into this tournament
and your high end names are going to get in
based off of their ranking, but a lot of these
other guys that are good golfers have to qualify their
way in, whether that be through the sectionals of regionals,
(23:58):
and then to the very end of this and on
the Monday before the US Open, that's when the final
qualifiers are held. So Andrew Putnam went out, played thirty
six holes that day, does not get himself qualified, yet
has to go back out on Tuesday to qualify again,
place forty five holes in those two days. And look,
(24:18):
the number of holes is not the problem here. It's
the prep into the RBC Canadian Open. So he ends
up qualifying for the US Open, gets there on Tuesday
night for the RBC Canadian ends up shooting five over,
bounces back on Friday, which is I think the positive
to this whole thing. I just think it's a fluky
miscut at the end of the day, and at plus
(24:40):
one oh five, I thought this was an interesting price
that I had closer to minus one twenty for him
to make it so. I mean, anytime I can get
twenty five points of value on something like that, I'm
always gonna take it.
Speaker 3 (24:51):
Yeah, speaking of the cut, like what kind of advice
would you give the people here there are trying to bet,
you know on Saturday after the cut?
Speaker 4 (24:58):
Like, what are you looking for on this?
Speaker 5 (24:59):
We for me my favorite markets, and I think we're
the most winnable and the biggest edges still lie would
probably be for in tournament matchups. I think in in
tournament matchups, if you look at what happens, that's the
one spot where inside of the golf market, books are
still slow to move. In a lot of these spots
(25:21):
where there's over corrections and overreactions that take place. You know,
there's people and this is kind of like the number
one blueprint that I try to tell people that are
building models or do things. It matters what's going on,
But we build a model from a low. It almost
would be like in football Simon, where if you build
a model and you have it built out for this
(25:43):
entire game, and after one quarter Patrick Mahomes, let's just
say place poorly, and now all of a sudden you
create a whole new model, change everything that you know
about this and reweigh it. That's a little bit of
what happens in golf, and it happens really hardcore on
the data building side, which is the incorrect thing to do. So,
(26:04):
you know, trust your pre tournament research, whether you're building
your own model or you're listening to advice from other
people or whatever it.
Speaker 6 (26:12):
Is, like, trust some of your takes that you had
early on.
Speaker 5 (26:14):
Trust the numbers. Do not overreact to one or two rounds.
It's such a small sample size. But if you can
do that and you can trust some of your priors,
I think in tournament matchups are where the value still land.
Speaker 2 (26:29):
A quick word from zebiotics and we will be right back.
Speaker 7 (26:34):
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Speaker 1 (26:38):
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Speaker 7 (26:43):
Also, we both know.
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Speaker 2 (28:33):
I Spencer.
Speaker 1 (28:34):
We got a lot of very casual golf fans and
golf betters listening.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
That crowd. They love a long shot.
Speaker 1 (28:44):
Everybody wants to get rich quick. Everybody wants to play
the lottery Spencer, What are your picks?
Speaker 7 (28:49):
What are your leans?
Speaker 2 (28:50):
For anyone hunting for a big, big price.
Speaker 1 (28:54):
They just want to make bang for very little investment
at the US Open.
Speaker 5 (29:00):
So I did a show with Matt Mitchell in twenty
twenty three where I came on with Wyndham Clark in
this triple digit zone for the US Open, and Wyndom
Clark very famously won at LACC for that. I don't
know if I have as strong of a lean this
go around with it. If there are some names I
am looking for in that triple digit zone, if you
(29:20):
want to throw a dart at the board and kind
of hope for the best, I think k Kitty AMA's
ball striking.
Speaker 6 (29:26):
You can get him over one hundred to one. He
makes some sense.
Speaker 5 (29:30):
Maverick McNeely is another name that I've kind of been
chasing this year. It feels like I had a lot
of exposure to him at the Masters. I had a
lot of exposure Tohim at the PGA Championship, not necessarily
in the outright market, but in a lot of these
safer markets, like whether it's a matchup or a placement bet.
But I think those two names, maybe more so than
(29:50):
most of them, would be the two that resonate inside
of my model, where there is a profile of where
you can start telling a story. Don't necessarily check all
the boxes of what you would want to see, but
you know my model has them closer into like the
seventy to eighty to one range being proper for them,
and you can get them in that triple digit zone.
Speaker 6 (30:11):
So those would be the two that I would bring
to the show.
Speaker 2 (30:15):
Spencer.
Speaker 1 (30:15):
I've tried as hard as I could to figure out
a way to tempt you into singing something. I might
have almost been distracted during the show just trying to
figure that out.
Speaker 2 (30:26):
I couldn't get there.
Speaker 5 (30:27):
I'll tell you this, I mean, I can't promise I'm
gonna do it if if I hit an outright winner,
if it's Scotty Scheffler, like it may go from a
billion to one to like one hundred to one the
next time I'm on the show. So each winner will
keep like if one of your long shots cash is,
We're just going to have Matt Mitchell call you, record
(30:49):
you singing a little Diddy and.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
We're putting it on the show.
Speaker 1 (30:51):
Perfect your promise to us, Spencer Aguiar, thank you so much.
Speaker 2 (30:56):
Tell everyone how to sign up for your discord.
Speaker 5 (30:58):
Yeah, so first of all, you can follow me on
x at keof Sports, and you can go over to
my website at tofsports dot club. You know, there's a
lot that I do on there, but there is also
that free portion of the discord to where if you
sign up for a player's club membership on there, you
can get inside of the discord and get behind the scene,
(31:18):
look at a lot of the goodies that I offer,
whether it be my model that I've talked about on
this show, it has the ability for people to make
a copy of the model and to weigh the data themselves.
That's my number one thing that I'm proud of, Chad,
that I'm able to give back to the spaces giving
people the ability to build their own model, build their
own numbers and to look deeper into these tournaments because
(31:39):
I think at the end of the day, like we
can come on here and we can you know, quote
unquote taut plays. But I think where the true value
comes in is being able to originate your own prices
figure out where the value lies. And that's something that
I'm very proud of that you can do inside of
that model. And yeah, I write a lot of articles, Chad,
like you know, some of them have gotten me nomine
(32:00):
in one awards, But I mean, look, I write so
many articles. At the end of the day, you can
probably get fifteen plus on the website, So summer free,
summer premium.
Speaker 6 (32:07):
But sign up for the website. You can see a bunch.
Speaker 2 (32:10):
Of that beautiful spencer Agar. That's our show.
Speaker 1 (32:13):
It's been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network.
Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Don't forget
follow us on Instagram at sharp or square all one
word like this video.
Speaker 2 (32:26):
Subscribe to the channel.
Speaker 1 (32:27):
Downloads from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods,
rate review, subscribe me this five stars say whatever you want.
Feedback is a gift. Until next time.
Speaker 7 (32:35):
I love you who's going to try to put this
thing up?
Speaker 6 (32:39):
Did you say put John putt?
Speaker 4 (32:41):
Oh my, oh my goodness. Stop.
Speaker 6 (32:47):
Have you ever seen anything close to that, not from
a professional
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bett.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
Speaker 1 (00:07):
This is the show that makes the squares sharper and
makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Moman,
I am joined as always, buy, my co host, my BFF,
my companion, Mike Cafadre, Professional Better, Simon Hunter, l O,
Simon Jah.
Speaker 3 (00:22):
I can't believe was that the first weekend we've every
texted about soccer in our entire lives?
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Crazy right?
Speaker 1 (00:27):
So yeah, me, you and Dubundo Anthony Debundo, we're texting
about Morocco.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
Time Spain was in this. I was in New York
over the weekend.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
My kid had graduated from college in Philly on Friday,
and then I went into the city on Saturday and
me and are good friend sack Wickersham and another good
friend of ours went to see Bono interview Bruce Springsteen
at the Tribeca Film Festival. But only all we were
(01:00):
doing was trying to find bars before and after to
watch World Cup and then watch more World Cup and
then watch the Knicks. And I was in some bar
watching Morocco. They went up on Spain and MEU and
Dubundo started texting, because holy shit, that was amazing.
Speaker 4 (01:17):
Yeah, it was. Uh it's if you're a Spa, a
fan of like we.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Are, of all sports and obviously have all things betting,
doesn't get much better than this past weekend. Right, you
had the NHL Finals, the NBA Finals, and the World Cup.
And I mean, I know people probably it's a little
late now, but you know, as a fan of soccer,
that was the biggest USA win ever and people can say, well,
(01:42):
they've gone further. I don't think Americas understand how big
of a deal it is to beat that Paraguay team.
That's why all these international people are like, what in
the world, because Paraguay their last ten games, they didn't
conceded more than one goal, let alone four, and the
pressure that was on that USA team playing, you know,
that goal obviously helped a lot, right to help them relax.
(02:02):
And you could say all that, but that just for
like again, the cold, easy flat fell in their face.
Speaker 4 (02:07):
Right.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
The hype, the atmosphere, it was all built so high.
I just can't get over at USA winning that four
to one, and yeah, something that love soccer. The I
don't know if you've been watched any of the cover
that's on Fox Sports. It's Terrynree and this guy named Ibrahimovic,
And yeah, I love Ibrahivivich. He's like one of my
favorite players ever. Actually I could sing a song. Chat
(02:31):
if you want a song, rare chance of me actually
sing an English song.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
Oh my goodness, please.
Speaker 4 (02:37):
Americans don't really get it.
Speaker 3 (02:39):
Like he's half joking Abramovich and he's also being dead serious.
This man truly thinks he's the greatest player ever and
he has got and to me he is one of
the best players ever. But when he played for man United,
I went to a few games when he was actually
on the team. Is when I was really into min United.
I literally would just fly from Philly. You can fly
direct to man United to Manchester. I'd go to a
(03:01):
game with Saturday and be back home by Sunday. And
my favorite songs. I don't know if it's age appropriates,
if you're listening with your kids, take a quick thirty
second break here, but it goes six foot five, hard
as fuck, gets the reds excited, stick city up your
asc as, bah Man. You know he did we yea Manyah, No,
(03:24):
he did. And Ibrahimitch was a great great player. He
came from United. Basically first season I got injured and
that was all she wrot But he was just an
all time great player. So him on the coverage, even
him and Henri again, these are the best players in
the world. They were stunned after that USA game. That's
why I'm trying to wrap around people how big of
a deal it was. So yeah, it's this could be
(03:46):
as good as it gets. I hope it isn't. Right
Australia is the next test. It's gonna be a great game,
and I'm really confident our side in our squad. But
that was as good as the game you could possibly
have for you United. So right now, as a fan
of the World Cup, I'm loving and obviously the Knicks won,
and that had all the Brazilian fans in the city
like that whole the whole part of the World Cup
(04:07):
and all these international fans being here.
Speaker 4 (04:08):
Like I said, I didn't feel it wasn't feeling in Philly.
Speaker 3 (04:11):
I felt that this past weekend like the Ecuadorian fans
taking over the city of Phidelphia.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
They're everywhere.
Speaker 3 (04:16):
It's it's been really really cool, and I'm I'm just
so happy they spread it out.
Speaker 5 (04:19):
Rob.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
We have a month left of this right, so it's
it's just the beginning. You can tell how far it up.
Speaker 4 (04:25):
I him. It's just been such a fun weekend in sports.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
I'm gonna miss gonna miss basketball hockey, but thank god
we have the World Cup.
Speaker 4 (04:31):
Chow.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
Well, look, the city was on fire, sometimes literally on Saturday.
Kudos to Jason Timp by the way, because we had
him on the show, host of Hoops Tonight, the podcast
on the Volume podcast network, and we consistently tried to
push him into taking the Spurs. You and I both
decided we were on the Spurs and seven for sort
of this specific bet, and he would not back away.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
He thought the Knicks could sweep this.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
He then moved it to Nickson six, just because I
think there was a little hedging there, but he never
once wavered from the Knicks. And even I, as someone
who on this show talked about how much I hate
the Knicks, I came around. Brunson is so fun to
root for, Mike Brown is so fun to root for.
This team is really special in terms of how they
(05:20):
connect with people who are watching basketball and how they
connected with the city of New York. I mean look,
I think Bono wind Springsteen was the lowlight of my
day on Saturday between It's one of those great days
that you don't get anymore, especially like when you're older
and have kids. Where me and Seth and another good
(05:41):
buddy of ours named Phil who is one of to
cess closest friends from high school I've known forever. Like
we got to go start drinking at like three in
the afternoon and like we were at a legendary bar
and for a backer called Walkers. Then we went to
the event, then we went to another bar, then we
went to dinner, then into another bar to watch the game,
(06:03):
and it was just you just felt light and free
and like there was so much joy.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
In the city. It was really, it's freaking remarkable. It
was great totally.
Speaker 3 (06:13):
It props to New York City, like the first city
that has the most people in the world in a
concentrated area.
Speaker 4 (06:19):
Wasn't all that bad afterwards when it happened.
Speaker 3 (06:21):
At the time, I was like, oh my god, they're
going to burn that city to the ground. Ended up
not being that terrible. The craziest part was someone posted
a video of the night before they're on the street,
cars are burning it's like a riot all this cast
and it was him. At the next morning, nine am,
little tables outside, people eating breakfast. Yeah, the New yor
only in New York City, where twelve hours later you
would never know there was just a ride on the street.
Speaker 4 (06:42):
So yeah, just an incredible weekend.
Speaker 1 (06:44):
I gotta say there was probably less violence than a
normal Saturday night, honest, honest to God, because like everyone
was so happy and joyful and focused on that. It
wasn't sort of dispersed violence that there normally is in
New York. I thought it was amazing. It was great
and correct. The congrats to the Knicks fans. I have
been watching all the videos of how joyful people are
(07:04):
and sports is the best. Anytime you get jaded about sports.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
Something like this happens and it's just it's just freaking awesome.
Speaker 1 (07:15):
And guess what, Simon, we get another chance to celebrate
sports in the great state of New York. For the
six time, golf's most challenging tournament, the US Open, is
returning to the Hampdens. The US Open tees off on
Thursday at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Long Island. We're
(07:36):
gonna be covering it from every betting angle with returning
guest Spencer Aggie are two time Fantasy Sports Writer Association
Golf Writer of Year, last year's winner of Research Article
of the Year. We've had him on before. He is
one of the smartest golf guys we've had on. Spencer
(07:56):
from Las Vegas.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
How you doing brother, I'm doing well.
Speaker 6 (08:01):
Thank you. I appreciate you guys having me on again.
Speaker 5 (08:03):
I will say this, simon beautiful singing to lead into
the show. I'm probably I don't know what the odds
would be on it plus a billion to actually sing
on this show. So if you guys can get me
to do that, that's the big money ticket to have
out there.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
Well, let's see if we can get you in by
the end of the show.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
Spencer Shinna Kak gorgeous course number five in golf Dieget
Golf Magazine's Top one hundred golf courses in the world,
can also make for a miserable, brutal US Open course.
Fit is always important when you're talking about golf. It's
(08:42):
become a really important metric for betters. What stands out
in terms of the factors, what kind of play is
going to be rewarded or punished.
Speaker 6 (08:53):
Yeah, you kind of mentioned it at the beginning.
Speaker 5 (08:55):
Like Shinnakok is widely regarded as one of the best
championship tests that we get in this country. And I
think it's a funny answer when you consider that if
we look at twenty eighteen, the last time it was
played here, on average on the PGA Tour, players hit
about sixty percent of the fairways here, you get seventy
one percent of a made fairway rate.
Speaker 6 (09:17):
And you hear that.
Speaker 5 (09:18):
Answer, and you would think that there's going to be
the straightforward setup for ease. Accuracy is going to be
the number one answer to the game, which, in fairness,
it is, but a lot of that is deeply rooted
into you just cannot miss. And we see this over
and over again of where you take that thirty percent
rate of people missing the fairway and you're essentially dead
(09:40):
off the tee. There's this five inch thick fescue rough.
If you are wayward, it's a seven four hundred and
forty yard layout, which means that if you're going to
be conservative off the tee, now all of a sudden,
your second shot finds these secondary problems here into these
fiery green complexes because you are laying back off the
tee and you're not getting the most out of your
(10:02):
first shot. So, you know, for me, when I look
at this venue, and I'm somebody that wishes we had
more data to be able to pull from. You can
pull from two thousand and eighteen, you can pull from
two thousand and four, but the course is marginally different.
They made the fairways a little bit wider this go around,
and I do wonder from a statistical perspective, if that
(10:24):
changes anything, Like it if players like Bryson Deshambo and
Rory McElroy really decide to get aggressive off the tea
and kind of do this risk reward and see if
it pays off. And you know, we'll see if it
does or it doesn't. But when I ran a model
for this, the number one thing that I noticed is
good shots are going to get rewarded. Bad shots get punished.
(10:47):
And to answer your question, Chad, I don't know if
there's a specific game type that is the most geared
to find success.
Speaker 6 (10:55):
And for me, when we.
Speaker 5 (10:57):
Are putting together mathematical equations and try to figure out
the answer, I think that's why people love this tournament
so much because you can be accurate and you can
find success. You can be good around the green, you
can be a good putter. As long as you're good
in some of those areas, you kind of have this
blueprint for success. So you know, of the four majors,
(11:18):
I would say, and you know, we'll play into the
name of the show here, like this is probably one
of the sharper majors that you can find for betters.
I think if you're trying to be a square better
out there, the Masters the Open Championship are probably the
two that kind of yield that for whatever reason. This historically,
and this is when you guys mentioned at the beginning
(11:38):
when I won best Research article, what I talked about
is how the data played into every single tournament and
where the sharps and the squares landed for everything, and
where you could find more success over a five year period.
And the US Open was the most sharp test of
any of the majors. So I think that comes down
to just overall skill and finding the right players, and
(11:59):
you can do that at a US Open, where you
can't do that at some of these other majors as easily.
Speaker 1 (12:03):
What about wind, it's supposed to be nice here on
the East coast, But is wind going to be an issue?
Speaker 5 (12:10):
Wind's always prevalent when you were on a coast.
Speaker 6 (12:15):
I'm trying to figure.
Speaker 5 (12:17):
Out the best way to word this to your guys's audience.
Like I think if we threw this into football terms,
golf is really unique at the end of the day
because in football, you know who somebody's playing against. There's
factors that come into play, there's game scripts that change
because of the weather.
Speaker 6 (12:37):
In golf, it's not quite as simple as that.
Speaker 5 (12:41):
Yes, you are playing against the field and you know
who you are, but you're also playing against the course
and yourself. And when you look at weather specifically. For
these examples, tea times matter, and I think sometimes they
matter too much to people that are running models. Like
I always say to people inside of my discord, like
(13:03):
if you're waiting on the exact key time of a player,
you're gonna end up missing the movement. Like you kind
of have to be quick to act in a lot
of these situations in golf. But golf, unlike a lot
of these other sports, do have the chance to where
you can get yourself blown off the course if you
get into the wrong end of the weather. So one
of the ways that I tried to combat that, or
(13:23):
I always try to combat that, is I just have
an overall weather profile in my model. There's a ten
to twenty percent weight that I did throw into some
of those weather categories. There are gonna be some players
that are going to get the good end of the draw.
There are some players that are gonna get the bad
end of the draw. But at the end of the day,
two things happen. First, everybody's gonna get bad weather on
the coast. It's it's gonna be one of those things
(13:45):
where it's going to come and go.
Speaker 6 (13:47):
Two, I'm going to.
Speaker 5 (13:48):
Make enough bets to where, even if you get some
of them wrong, you're hoping that what you're building from
a mathematical perspective is going to put you on the
right end on enough of these situations. So it's gonna matter.
I want to come on here and be like, don't
look at the weather. The weather matters. But I also
think it's so baked into a lot of the movement
that it almost becomes like a negative in the grand
(14:12):
scheme of it.
Speaker 4 (14:14):
Yeah, you can test to a chat. It's been honestly
dry in the northeast.
Speaker 3 (14:17):
It's we really need a ran and most of our
storms are getting lately it's been the one hour quick hitters.
Speaker 4 (14:22):
It's not really prolonged rain.
Speaker 3 (14:23):
So I'm always into their rain, especially when it comes
to golf. It does matter, right, like you're talking about.
It does affect the playing course, and some guys team
off at the wrong time can affect their game totally.
Speaker 4 (14:34):
But just look at the odds right nowt of hard Rock.
Speaker 3 (14:37):
There's three golf players right now listed with better odds
than fourteen oh one. Right we have rom fourteen oh one,
Rory eleven oh one, and Scottie.
Speaker 4 (14:44):
A plus five point fifty. Is it still just Schefler's game?
We're all just are we just going chalk here? Or
are we?
Speaker 3 (14:51):
Are we thinking about the other guys that are for
like the other you know, eight other players on are
forty to one.
Speaker 4 (14:56):
I've heard nods you don't like anyone in that whole group.
Speaker 5 (14:59):
I rarely give this answer of going near the top
of the boarden situations. I usually try to find value
in golf and that comes further down the board. And
I will say this for major championships. It's one of
the things that you will notice there's almost a stigma
attached to all these events where the general public does
not believe anybody but the top names are going to win,
(15:20):
and a lot of times that if you are going
to get drift on a board, it's gonna come into
that triple digit zone of a lot of those names
that get pushed back ten twenty points higher than they
should be. And I think that sportsbooks condense the top
of the board into kind of unbettable ranges a lot
of times to where you're probably gonna get the winner
from there, but you get this heavily juice board where
there's a ton of hold percentage that you're finding. And
(15:43):
I kind of thought that was going to be the
case at least a couple weeks.
Speaker 6 (15:47):
Ago, and it's kind of changed for me.
Speaker 5 (15:49):
When I built my model this go around, I kind
of think Scotty's going to win this golf tournament, and
there has been this.
Speaker 6 (15:58):
Scotty was three to one to.
Speaker 5 (16:00):
Win every golf tournament for almost the first three months
of the year, and he's underachieved in and he's underachieved
in a really weird way because from a statistical perspective,
I ran things for the last twenty four rounds, and
the last time I came on, I talked about how
I run my model longer than most people do. I
like to have that long term outlook. I don't want
(16:22):
that short term stuff that's going to inflate or deflate
numbers on it. But with Scotty, the stigma around him
right now is that he cannot find success.
Speaker 6 (16:32):
He is struggling.
Speaker 5 (16:33):
You see him yelling at his caddy, you see him
having these outbursts. He's having outbursts on media members, He's
having outbursts on pretty much everybody who's getting around him.
And I think that what that has done is it
is inflated a price now for Scotty. And when I
ran the numbers, I wanted to look at the short
term outlook here and for Scotty over the last twenty
(16:55):
four rounds, even without any of the victories, and even
without some of this high end success that we expect
from him, he is still far and away the number
one golfer in my model. I ran seven statistical categories
from various degrees of range of time. Scotty was number
one and substantially number one in every single area. And
(17:17):
I kind of go back to that last twenty four
rounds of him being substantially number one there. While everybody
wants to talk about what we've seen from Fitzpatrick and
what we've seen from Cameron Young and some of those names,
and sure.
Speaker 6 (17:30):
Like I like Fitzpatrick this week.
Speaker 5 (17:31):
I think that this is this prototypical sort of a
course for him where he can find success. And there's
a handful of names that probably make logical sense to
go back, but I took the more bullish route on Scotty.
And if you shop around, you can find this number
six and a half seven to one in some locations.
(17:52):
And like I said, it's not something that I normally do,
but I am playing the chalk here with Scotty, and
I think that it kind of goes back to the
answer that I said at the very beginning that if
there's no specific skill set, that it's rewarding and it's
just rewarding good shots. Scotty is the best player in
the world at picking the target, hitting a spot, and
(18:12):
doing what he needs to do to find success. And
when we don't have these thirty under par winners in
the US Open, is going to deliver something that's closer
to even par to win this. That's kind of the
Scotty Scheffler blueprint, where I think he's more likely to
win one of those tournaments.
Speaker 1 (18:26):
I love that we're talking about Scotty Scheffler underachieving when
he just finished second at the Masters.
Speaker 2 (18:33):
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Speaker 2 (20:33):
Spencer beyond the outrights.
Speaker 1 (20:35):
You've come on the show and given out some really
thoughtful ideas about betting head to head finishing in position markets.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
What are you targeting in those groups right now?
Speaker 5 (20:48):
Yeah, I don't have a ton of matchup exposures so
far this week. I mean the one that I did
back in I think unfortunately the number has moved pretty
heavily across the board. But I'll give it on the
show for one reason because I think that there's ways
to back this player and maybe fade the other one.
But I took Seawu Kim over Justin Rose. Two parts
(21:10):
to this. The first one is see Wu Kim. This
is a player if we're talking about underachieving and where
the market is on him, I think this is a
top ten golfer in the world, and because we don't
have a victory from him this season, the market doesn't
necessarily treat him as that He opened at fifty to
one to win this golf tournament, which I think, in fairness,
is a pretty good look there at fifty to one
(21:33):
without that victory. And I kind of made the argument
if Sea Wu had won once, what would his price be?
You could probably chop this into like the thirty to
one range, and he's been in contention so many times
to win so many of these tournaments give him a
second victory and all of a sudden, now you're in
like that Matthew Fitzpatrick sort of a range. And that's
kind of where my model has Seawu Kim when it
(21:55):
comes to win equity.
Speaker 6 (21:57):
So I think you get the good end of Seawu.
Speaker 5 (21:59):
Kim there and then and Justin Rose is a name
that tends to burn me in major championships sometimes, like
we saw it at the Masters.
Speaker 6 (22:06):
We saw it at the PGA Championship.
Speaker 5 (22:09):
You know. I talked about the Masters specifically being like
the most square tournament where it feels like square betters
kind of get the right end of some of these
Justin Rose spots. You look at Justin Rose, Yeah, there's
a lot of upside a matchup bet you want safety
at the end.
Speaker 6 (22:24):
Of the day.
Speaker 5 (22:25):
Rose has missed four of his last five cuts at
the US Open, and I think it's this boom or
bus profile that he presents to the mix. So when
this Open in that minus one twenty range, I thought
that was way too short. Unfortunately the market agreed, and
that thing is kind of bloomed up. But whether it's
a fade of rose or a backing of Sea Wou,
I think that's something that you can look at. And
then the other one I will give is a mad
(22:46):
cut bet and it's it's a plus number here. So
if you're looking for a little bit of value, Andrew
Putnam to make the cut at plus one oh five,
this is a golfer that is not going to be
a household name to people, but it's a golfer that
also had been just stringing together, made cuts over and
over again, and I had them at the PGA Championship
(23:08):
at a very similar price and ends up making the
weekend falters on Saturday and Sunday to fifty fifth place.
Speaker 6 (23:15):
But cash is the ticket.
Speaker 5 (23:16):
We see them last week miss the cut at the
RBC Canadian Open, and I think it's that classic situation
of like you'd like to see the ball go through
the hoop right before one of the biggest tournaments of
the year. You don't want to have a five over
round that you shoot and miss a cut. But I
think in this particular situation, want it enhance the price
here at plus one oh five so you get a
(23:38):
little bit of value because of that misscut. And then
the second thing that transpired is the US Open is
a really fun event because there's qualifying into this tournament
and your high end names are going to get in
based off of their ranking, but a lot of these
other guys that are good golfers have to qualify their
way in, whether that be through the sectionals of regionals,
(23:58):
and then to the very end of this and on
the Monday before the US Open, that's when the final
qualifiers are held. So Andrew Putnam went out, played thirty
six holes that day, does not get himself qualified, yet
has to go back out on Tuesday to qualify again,
place forty five holes in those two days. And look,
(24:18):
the number of holes is not the problem here. It's
the prep into the RBC Canadian Open. So he ends
up qualifying for the US Open, gets there on Tuesday
night for the RBC Canadian ends up shooting five over,
bounces back on Friday, which is I think the positive
to this whole thing. I just think it's a fluky
miscut at the end of the day, and at plus
(24:40):
one oh five, I thought this was an interesting price
that I had closer to minus one twenty for him
to make it so. I mean, anytime I can get
twenty five points of value on something like that, I'm
always gonna take it.
Speaker 3 (24:51):
Yeah, speaking of the cut, like what kind of advice
would you give the people here there are trying to bet,
you know on Saturday after the cut?
Speaker 4 (24:58):
Like, what are you looking for on this?
Speaker 5 (24:59):
We for me my favorite markets, and I think we're
the most winnable and the biggest edges still lie would
probably be for in tournament matchups. I think in in
tournament matchups, if you look at what happens, that's the
one spot where inside of the golf market, books are
still slow to move. In a lot of these spots
(25:21):
where there's over corrections and overreactions that take place. You know,
there's people and this is kind of like the number
one blueprint that I try to tell people that are
building models or do things. It matters what's going on,
But we build a model from a low. It almost
would be like in football Simon, where if you build
a model and you have it built out for this
(25:43):
entire game, and after one quarter Patrick Mahomes, let's just
say place poorly, and now all of a sudden you
create a whole new model, change everything that you know
about this and reweigh it. That's a little bit of
what happens in golf, and it happens really hardcore on
the data building side, which is the incorrect thing to do. So,
(26:04):
you know, trust your pre tournament research, whether you're building
your own model or you're listening to advice from other
people or whatever it.
Speaker 6 (26:12):
Is, like, trust some of your takes that you had
early on.
Speaker 5 (26:14):
Trust the numbers. Do not overreact to one or two rounds.
It's such a small sample size. But if you can
do that and you can trust some of your priors,
I think in tournament matchups are where the value still land.
Speaker 2 (26:29):
A quick word from zebiotics and we will be right back.
Speaker 7 (26:34):
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Also, we both know.
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Speaker 2 (28:33):
I Spencer.
Speaker 1 (28:34):
We got a lot of very casual golf fans and
golf betters listening.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
That crowd. They love a long shot.
Speaker 1 (28:44):
Everybody wants to get rich quick. Everybody wants to play
the lottery Spencer, What are your picks?
Speaker 7 (28:49):
What are your leans?
Speaker 2 (28:50):
For anyone hunting for a big, big price.
Speaker 1 (28:54):
They just want to make bang for very little investment
at the US Open.
Speaker 5 (29:00):
So I did a show with Matt Mitchell in twenty
twenty three where I came on with Wyndham Clark in
this triple digit zone for the US Open, and Wyndom
Clark very famously won at LACC for that. I don't
know if I have as strong of a lean this
go around with it. If there are some names I
am looking for in that triple digit zone, if you
(29:20):
want to throw a dart at the board and kind
of hope for the best, I think k Kitty AMA's
ball striking.
Speaker 6 (29:26):
You can get him over one hundred to one. He
makes some sense.
Speaker 5 (29:30):
Maverick McNeely is another name that I've kind of been
chasing this year. It feels like I had a lot
of exposure to him at the Masters. I had a
lot of exposure Tohim at the PGA Championship, not necessarily
in the outright market, but in a lot of these
safer markets, like whether it's a matchup or a placement bet.
But I think those two names, maybe more so than
(29:50):
most of them, would be the two that resonate inside
of my model, where there is a profile of where
you can start telling a story. Don't necessarily check all
the boxes of what you would want to see, but
you know my model has them closer into like the
seventy to eighty to one range being proper for them,
and you can get them in that triple digit zone.
Speaker 6 (30:11):
So those would be the two that I would bring
to the show.
Speaker 2 (30:15):
Spencer.
Speaker 1 (30:15):
I've tried as hard as I could to figure out
a way to tempt you into singing something. I might
have almost been distracted during the show just trying to
figure that out.
Speaker 2 (30:26):
I couldn't get there.
Speaker 5 (30:27):
I'll tell you this, I mean, I can't promise I'm
gonna do it if if I hit an outright winner,
if it's Scotty Scheffler, like it may go from a
billion to one to like one hundred to one the
next time I'm on the show. So each winner will
keep like if one of your long shots cash is,
We're just going to have Matt Mitchell call you, record
(30:49):
you singing a little Diddy and.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
We're putting it on the show.
Speaker 1 (30:51):
Perfect your promise to us, Spencer Aguiar, thank you so much.
Speaker 2 (30:56):
Tell everyone how to sign up for your discord.
Speaker 5 (30:58):
Yeah, so first of all, you can follow me on
x at keof Sports, and you can go over to
my website at tofsports dot club. You know, there's a
lot that I do on there, but there is also
that free portion of the discord to where if you
sign up for a player's club membership on there, you
can get inside of the discord and get behind the scene,
(31:18):
look at a lot of the goodies that I offer,
whether it be my model that I've talked about on
this show, it has the ability for people to make
a copy of the model and to weigh the data themselves.
That's my number one thing that I'm proud of, Chad,
that I'm able to give back to the spaces giving
people the ability to build their own model, build their
own numbers and to look deeper into these tournaments because
(31:39):
I think at the end of the day, like we
can come on here and we can you know, quote
unquote taut plays. But I think where the true value
comes in is being able to originate your own prices
figure out where the value lies. And that's something that
I'm very proud of that you can do inside of
that model. And yeah, I write a lot of articles, Chad,
like you know, some of them have gotten me nomine
(32:00):
in one awards, But I mean, look, I write so
many articles. At the end of the day, you can
probably get fifteen plus on the website, So summer free,
summer premium.
Speaker 6 (32:07):
But sign up for the website. You can see a bunch.
Speaker 2 (32:10):
Of that beautiful spencer Agar. That's our show.
Speaker 1 (32:13):
It's been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network.
Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Don't forget
follow us on Instagram at sharp or square all one
word like this video.
Speaker 2 (32:26):
Subscribe to the channel.
Speaker 1 (32:27):
Downloads from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods,
rate review, subscribe me this five stars say whatever you want.
Feedback is a gift. Until next time.
Speaker 7 (32:35):
I love you who's going to try to put this
thing up?
Speaker 6 (32:39):
Did you say put John putt?
Speaker 4 (32:41):
Oh my, oh my goodness. Stop.
Speaker 6 (32:47):
Have you ever seen anything close to that, not from
a professional
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