Nick Wright reacts to Drake Maye's disaster 4th quarter from the New England Patriots' 13-10 loss to the Sam Darnold-less Seattle Seahawks to kick off the NFL season, including a game-losing interception to Josh Jobe. How concerning is Maye's meltdown for New England with their star quarterback floundering once again against elite competition? Later, Nick reacts to the controversial Michigan-Western Michigan ending in Week 1 of the college football season and shares why he believes replay has gotten out of hands in sports. Next, Nick shares his predictions for Week 1 of the NFL season including Patrick Mahomes' return in the Kansas City Chiefs' Monday Night Football matchup with Bo Nix's Denver Broncos, Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills battling CJ Stroud and the ferocious Houston Texans defense, and much more from around the league! #Volume
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the best of the week for What's Right
with Nick Wright. The best takes and moments from this
week on the show. Enjoy!
Speaker 2 (00:09):
So yeah, the game was rough. Darnold went down in
the first drive. You got A.J. Brown. He went down.
Drake May threw three interceptions. Seahawks still found a way
to get it done. Who do you think should be
more worried or panicked this morning? New England fans with
Drake May or Seahawks fans with Sam Darnold's injury? Can
I say one thing before you start, though? Why on earth?
(00:31):
This game was so bad in the Super Bowl. It
was like a really bad game. And we thought we
should make this the first game of the season in
the next year. And I feel like it panned out
to be the same exact thing the last game of
the season.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Was last year. Well, listen, it's two marquee teams. When
you look at Seattle's home schedule, there were only a
few real options for who that game was going to be, right?
Speaker 2 (00:57):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
I didn't think they were going to put Seahawks-Rams as
the first game of the year. I thought they might
save it, so take that one off the board. Seahawks-Niners, Seahawks-Chargers, Seahawks...
There's another home game. Giants doesn't really have the star quality.
(01:21):
So your other home game possibilities were Seahawks-Patriots... Seahawks Cowboys,
Seahawks Bears, and Seahawks Chiefs. Those are home Seahawks games.
When they set the schedule, they don't know if Mahomes
is going to be healthy. So you can't have the
Chiefs on your standalone Wednesday night game without Mahomes out there.
(01:45):
So he's out. You don't... Cowboys, Seahawks, Cowboys, every Cowboys
game is such a big ratings draw anyway. You don't need...
to almost burn the opening game of the year. So
I thought that was out. So it was really, to me,
it came down to Seahawks-Bears or Seahawks-Patriots. I thought they'd
go Seahawks-Bears, you know, kind of a big Caleb thing
(02:06):
plus the defending champs. The NFL decided, let's give the
Patriots a chance to get some get back. It was
a huge risk, huge reward moment for New England. You
go out and win that game, that might all of
a sudden just cure your Super Bowl hangover. Might just
be like, you know what? We're better. We're a different team.
You do all those things. The flip side is you
(02:28):
lose the game and you're like, oh man, they're just
better than us. You lose the game the way they
lost it. And that's a tough one to recover from.
So listen, the Darnold piece of it is pretty simple.
If he did not break his hip and they seem
(02:50):
to be confident he did not, He should be back
at some point. And if he's back, they should be okay.
So like we can, we'll do more on the Seahawks.
And I don't, you know, love starting with the losing
team because it feels negative rather than starting with the winner,
especially when the defending champs, you win with your backup quarterback.
(03:14):
But the story of that game yesterday is unequivocally undeniably
the The absolute meltdown by Drake May. They had the
ball three times in the fourth quarter. All three possessions,
he threw a different type of outrageous interception. Up 10-3
(03:42):
in the fourth quarter, in control of the game. On
second and nine, on the plus side of the field,
throws a bomb down the deep sideline that it wasn't
easily picked because it was tipped by one, caught by
(04:04):
the other, but it was into double coverage. You have
control of the game. You're up a touchdown. You're one
first down away from being up double digits in the
fourth quarter against Drew Locke. You give the Seahawks life
with that. Seattle then comes back, scores their only touchdown
(04:27):
of the game on a gutsy, don't let it be
forgotten in the details of the game, play call. Fourth down,
which was a pretty obvious go-for-it situation. It was fourth
and one. But fourth and one with a backup quarterback,
you call a pass. Have him drop back. JSN. Cooks.
(04:49):
The highest paid corner in the history of the NFL.
And then scampers to the end zone. All right, tie game.
We got a ball game now. Very next possession. Drake May.
throws not a carbon copy, but a very similar interception
(05:10):
to the one he threw in the Super Bowl, where
he just didn't read where the safeties were. The one
in the Super Bowl when Collinsworth says, I don't know
what to tell you there. If you remember, I think
his exact quote was, I got nothing for you there, Mike,
because he didn't know why Drake May did it.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
His receiver didn't let him down on that one? I
feel like his receiver fell down a little early on
that one. I feel like he could have made a
play on the ball.
Speaker 1 (05:39):
Romeo Dobbs had... An abomination of a game. And we'll
get more on him in a moment. He's the guy
they were throwing to there. You're right. He seemed to
stumble a bit. But it was a risky throw. It
was a risky throw that didn't need to be made.
And he clearly thought the safety wasn't going to be there.
(06:00):
Because had Dobbs not fallen down and it was a
slightly better throw, it would have just been potentially a
hospital ball for Dobbs. And so... Now all of a sudden,
Seattle gets the ball back. They go and get a
field goal. Next possession, Drake makes some plays. Drake all
of a sudden has a fourth down run. They have
(06:22):
a fourth and nine, a nice little completion over the
middle of the field. And now you find yourself, Seattle's
got no timeouts. You have the ball inside the 20
with one timeout in your pocket. It's third and five.
(06:45):
If something easy and obvious is there, you take it.
If not, you can try to pick it up with
your legs because you have the timeout. You also obviously
can just throw it out the back of the end zone. Instead,
he throws a fadeaway jump shot to the front corner
of the end zone. And... Kills them. Good night, good luck.
(07:14):
You were about to have pulled it out of the fire.
be 13-13 going into overtime with Drew Locke, more on
him in a bit, standing across the other side of
the field from you. Great chance to not get a
win you feel amazing about, but start 1-0. Arguably, it's
(07:35):
the single toughest game on your schedule. Kind of steal
it without playing your best ball. Keep it moving. And
Drake May, and this is the concern piece, continued a
very alarming trend of now five games in a row, granted,
(07:58):
all five against very good defenses, of awful ball. Not mediocre, not,
you know, subpar. That's five games in a row of
wildly damaging football from Drake Mack. And you guys know
(08:21):
I'm a Drake May believer. But the playoff run and
how he looked against good competition and how frazzled he
looked and the fact that they're... You know, do people
not realize I do the pod every Thursday? My agent
(08:42):
called me. Your sister called me. Drake May... how frazzled
he looked repeatedly against these types of defenses in the playoffs,
starting off the season like that, alarm bells ring a
(09:04):
little bit. Last year in the regular season, okay, Drake May,
4,400 yards in 17 games. That's 258 yards per game.
A 113 rating. 31 passing touchdowns to eight interceptions. Did
(09:25):
get sacked a lot, but you were able to sustain it.
Added four more rushing touchdowns last year. Drake May in
the five games since the end of the last regular season.
(09:47):
One touchdown, one pick, an 87 rating. to go along
with one fumble lost. His team scored 16 points against
the Chargers. His best playoff game. three touchdown passes against
that dominant Texans defense. Even in that game, less than
(10:07):
180 yards passing, less than 60% completions, one pick, four fumbles,
two fumbles lost. The AFC championship game, in the snow
against Denver, 86 yards passing. The Super Bowl, stone nothing
(10:30):
until the game was decided in the fourth quarter when
he added 220 fourth quarter yards going into the fourth quarter,
less than 75 yards passing, finished the game with two
picks and another fumble lost. And now this game yesterday,
(10:50):
A 55 passer rating. One touchdown, three interceptions. And if
you're the Patriots, Demanze, you are very lucky this game
was not far more lopsided. Think about the things, the
four penalties that drastically changed how this game looked. Flea
(11:17):
flicker to A.J. Brown. He's wide open. Drake may throws
one of his worst passes of the night under throws
him so much. It turns into that vintage under thrown
deep ball pass interference. That's what set up the Patriots
first and only touchdown. They scored one other time in
(11:38):
the game, a field goal. What happened on that drive?
They're punting roughing the punter. There's three points there. Seattle,
on the other hand, once Drew Locke got going, touchdown
Cooper Cup. Nope. Illegal shift. That seven becomes three. Later
(11:59):
in the game, on the field goal that gave them
the lead, they have a third and one inside the 10.
They false start. Turns into a third and six. They
end up settling for a field goal. That's... Four separate
errors by Seattle that New England didn't, like, earn, so
(12:23):
to speak, that either led to New England points or
took potentially more points off the board for the Seahawks.
This could have been really ugly.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
They were missing key pieces, and obviously they had Drew
Locke in the game.
Speaker 1 (12:39):
Well, that's the other piece of it, man. The... The
Patriots treated Drew Locke as if he were Jared Stidham.
And the game plan from the AFC Championship game was
(13:00):
going to work. And the thing about that is, it
might have if Drake May didn't go full meltdown mode.
They got super conservative and.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
It seemed like the Seahawks trusted Drew Locke more than
the Patriots trusted Drake May.
Speaker 1 (13:21):
And maybe it was because the Seahawks had no choice
because they were trailing. But Locke at one point was
15 of 18. He finishes 16 of 22. A buck 87.
Eight and a half yards per attempt. One touchdown. No
turnovers or near turnovers. Would have been a second touchdown
(13:42):
as well, by the way, if not for that illegal
shift that I mentioned. And a 113 rating. Like, we
just went over the Drake May numbers. And so, whatever
questions DeMonte people had about how good were the Patriots really,
(14:06):
those are now going to pop up even more. And
there are, and this is one thing I flagged last
year during the year that I do think warrants mentioning.
Because it was all of Drake May's passes were on
passes deep down the field. Drake May to start last
(14:28):
year was on an all-time, how do I see my
own Twitter likes? Gosh darn it. Do I have to
update the app? I got to figure this out because
this is how I favorite things. And now I can't
even find them. Son of a gun.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
Um, dinking and dunking.
Speaker 1 (14:45):
No, it's not that. Let me, let me find the
exact Scott Casimir had the exact stats. Um, but it's
something I had been talking about before, which is Drake Mays,
deep ball heater and whether or not it was sustainable.
So let me find it real quick. Okay. Here it is.
(15:07):
Last year. Drake Mays started the season 13 of 17
on passes of 20 plus yards down the field. He
was unstoppable on bombs. It was what unlocked so much
of his amazing stats. I mean, set more than 75%
(15:31):
completion percentage on deep passes. Since the midway point of
last year, He is 17 of 54 on those same passes. 31.5%.
Last night, he was 0 for 4 with three picks
(15:53):
on those deep passes. Well, might be 0 for 4
with two picks because I think the second pick, I'm
not sure exactly how many air yards one of the
picks was. Regardless, he was 0 for 4 on them
last night. That's a concern. Another concern for New England, Amonze.
(16:15):
And I don't... People get annoyed with me on this.
I am never surprised when older players get hurt. People
can say, oh, and we'll get to Darnold in a minute. Oh, listen, A.J. Brown,
that's unlucky. He sprained his ankle. It was unlucky. And
it's a high ankle sprain, which is usually six weeks. Like, A.J.
(16:40):
Brown on the shelf for six weeks. And you can
say his age is not why he sprained his ankle.
I don't know that. I know that as guys get older...
their ability, like their body's ability, his age isn't why
he got tackled and his, you know, and fell that way.
(17:02):
But do I think that a 23 year old athlete
is more likely to have that not result in a
high ankle sprain than a 29 year old athlete? I do.
And I think there's a lot of, you know, there's
a million LeBron stories of young LeBron and spraining his ankle,
tightening his shoelaces, and just keep playing. Now that might
(17:25):
be an unfair comp, but there are two big offensive
acquisitions of the offseason. A.J. Brown, Romeo Dobbs. A.J., I
don't think we'll see him again until mid-October at the earliest.
We'll see. Romeo Dobbs was a catastrophe. When they were,
(17:50):
they signed him to four years, $ 68 million. That's $ 17
million a year. You know, I've never loved that whole
crew of Green Bay receivers. I thought they all were
a touch overstated. They paid him like he's a legit
number two. He could not get on the field when
(18:13):
they were in 11 personnel, which is the exact, like,
That 11 personnel means you have five offensive linemen, one quarterback.
So there's six guys, one running back, one tight end.
The 11 is one running back, one tight end. 11
personnel means you have three receivers out there. He wasn't
one of them for big portions of the game until A.J.
(18:39):
Brown went out. He was, you know, not featured at all.
And then once A.J. Brown went out, and I'm trying
to find the snap counts from the game, and they
went to him, it went disastrously. He ended up with,
let me find it exactly. I know he had zero
(19:01):
for zero. Three targets, zero catches, zero yards. One of
the targets turned into a pick. One of them was
one of Drake May's better plays on something and long,
and Dobbs just dropped it. One of the biggest plays
of the game, just a flat drop. The Patriots traded
away Kayshaun Booty to the Texans three weeks ago.
Speaker 2 (19:24):
He's a dog. I like Kayshaun Booty. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (19:28):
And Brable said, you know, listen, he would have been
inactive for us on game day. Yeah. Not if A.J.
Brown's out a month. Like that Patriots offense looked slow.
The offensive line was marginally better, but not marginally, much
better than it was in the Super Bowl, but it
(19:49):
also wasn't. the penalties on Will Campbell were a killer
that that is a garish loss given the fact that
the opposing team's starting quarterback went out two throws into
the season.
Speaker 2 (20:09):
Any way to wipe a little bit of this away
in week two? It's Pittsburgh. Can you erase that in
any way?
Speaker 1 (20:15):
I mean, you're going to hear it. Patriots' first month
of the year, of which I am very confident A.J.
Brown's not going to play. Home for the Steelers at Jacksonville.
Excellent defense at the Bills. one of your biggest games
(20:40):
of the year. A team that went 14-3 last year
is staring down the barrel of a 1-3 start. And
Drake May's confidence, he threw eight interceptions in 17 games
last year. He has thrown six interceptions in his last
(21:02):
five games. And that's not even to mention the How
many fumbles does he have total in those games? Seven. Now,
those aren't all lost, obviously. But... Whatever level of confidence
he was at... Oh, and I'm wrong. It's not six interceptions.
(21:22):
He has... After last season, he had eight picks. In
his last five games, he has seven picks and seven fumbles.
And has been sacked 24 times. I... I'd be very
worried if I were New England. Football is back, and
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Speaker 2 (23:40):
Yeah, week one of college football is officially in the books,
and the big story is out of the Michigan and
Western Michigan game, the Hail Mary, was that one second
left or no seconds left, and then there was a second?
What happened there?
Speaker 1 (23:52):
So, the reason I want to talk about this, and
I'm not going to spend a lot of time on it,
and this is a bit of a hobby horse of mine,
but at some point, I wonder if we will gain...
enough positive momentum on the right side of this debate,
(24:19):
which is replay in sports does not make the games better,
more watchable, or most importantly for many, more fair. And
this Western Michigan-Michigan ending is a great example, a great example,
(24:40):
of how you can understand why someone would write a
rule that says, oh, well, certainly something that's reviewable is
a clock error. And even if you stripped replay down
to the studs, one of the things you would leave
(25:02):
in as you know, the, the, the barest minimum of
things that should be able to be reviewed, we would
say is a clock error. Like that's black and white.
That's yes or no. That's binary. And even those types
of reviews cannot be trusted to be adjudicated properly. And
(25:26):
the only path that The only available path to remove
that type of outrageous theft from Western Michigan, an outright
theft of what would have been the greatest moment for
all of those players' athletic careers, beating Michigan on the
(25:48):
road after thoroughly outplaying them for 60 minutes. The only
way to remove that type of egregious error from taking
place is to remove replay entirely. And we so often,
(26:09):
like think about just in the last handful of football games,
let me put it like this. If we go back
to last year's NFL, the end of the NFL season,
or if we go back to the end of the season,
(26:31):
the playoffs, what are the moments replay came up and
we feel like, man, that saved a huge mistake? And
what are the moments replay came up and we say,
you've got to be kidding me? One could argue that
(26:54):
The Super Bowl, not one could argue, the path to
the Super Bowl inarguably was altered by one of the
most bizarre replay decisions any of us have ever seen,
which was in Seahawks-Rams regular season near the end of
the year that determined the one seed, that determined who
(27:15):
won that division, that very well may have determined the
Seahawks winning the Super Bowl. When the Seahawks went for
a two-point conversion, for everyone watching, everyone involved, it was
an incomplete pass. A couple seconds after the pass was incomplete,
a player didn't dive on the ball, a player didn't,
(27:37):
you know, fight for the ball, was walking past the ball,
laying on the ground, and picked it up with one hand,
and then walked off the field. And somehow instant replay determined, actually,
that was a successful two-point conversion because that was a
lateral pass that was batted down. And even though everyone
in the stadium, all the coaches, all the players in
(28:00):
real time thought that play was over, well, actually, that
was a live ball, it turns out. Seahawks get the
two points. They end up winning the game in overtime. Well,
replay will, you know, replay eliminates the arguing. AFC divisional
(28:20):
round game, Bill's Broncos, Josh Allen's fourth and final turnover.
The bomb down the field, that was a catch. No,
it was an interception. No, it was a catch. No,
it was an interception. Ruled on the field, an interception. Reviewed,
still an interception. Did that end the argument? No, Sean
(28:40):
McDermott is calling media from the bus on the way
home saying, I can't believe they didn't overturn it. And
then Western Michigan, Michigan, clear as day, that clock expired.
The players, the refs in real time, the coaches. And
(29:04):
we go to a replay that then shows the clock
was wrong and it actually had a half second left.
It's just bad for sports. And when replay came back
to the NFL... It was because Vinny Testaverde was two
yards short of a touchdown. His helmet crossed the line.
(29:27):
The ref thought his helmet was the football. And they
were like, we have to fix those egregious mistakes. And
the mission creep of that has gotten to such. an
outrageous place that yes occasionally occasionally there is I'll use
(29:49):
one that worked in my favor Chiefs Ravens week one
a couple years ago Ravens down eight Lamar or Ravens
down seven actually They were going to go for two.
Lamar to Isaiah Likely, back of the end zone. Touchdown.
It's reviewed. Oh my gosh, the tip of his toe
(30:10):
was out of bounds. I will take those types of, man,
the ref missed it by this much error, not being fixed,
in order to remove the absurdity of some of these
other overturns. The stoppages, the fact that it totally, and Michigan,
(30:33):
Western Michigan didn't matter because it was the last play
of the game, but the fact that it totally disregards
how much fatigue and conditioning and being able to play
without long stoppages matter and impact games. Like, across the board,
The only sport that seemingly has gotten replay right is
(30:56):
tennis because it's automated and instantaneous. And one could argue
that's actually also been bad for tennis because it's removed
some of the theater of tennis, which was people arguing
about line calls. That because it's automated and like that,
you don't get the passion of John McEnroe breaking his
(31:18):
racket and screaming. Go ahead. What'd you say? Sorry.
Speaker 2 (31:21):
What about baseball? They added the whole ABS thing.
Speaker 1 (31:25):
So, again, I... Replay in baseball, it sounded like... Let
me go pre-ABS. It sounded like a good idea. Was
the guy safer out on a stolen base? Did he
beat the tag or not? And then we found out
far more often than... them using replay to determine whether
(31:49):
or not someone beat the tag, what they were going
to do was use replay to determine if someone clearly
stole the base, beat the tag, and then post beating
the tag for a microsecond when he was sliding past
the base, came off the base in a way that
was not discernible to the naked eye, he's going to
(32:11):
be out because of that. Which is, again, a perversion
of the rule and not what it's there for. ABS seems...
Here's the thing about ABS. That is less replay and
more what it's called, automated balls and strikes. And they are,
(32:34):
to me, pretty clearly, ABS... They are using it as
a replay system... in order to at some point simply
have that be the system where there is no human
being calling balls and strikes. But in general, I liked
pitch framing. I liked an umpire setting his own strike zone.
(32:58):
But people can say that's terrible, in which case that's fine.
Just go to the automated technology from the beginning, and
then it's not even replay anyway. It's just the system.
It's just more bad than good for sports. It makes
watching them less fun. It makes it harder to celebrate,
you know, the end of a game victory because you're
just a little worried. You got to worry about is
(33:20):
there a flag and you got to worry are they
going to review something and people want more of it.
And I feel sick for the Western Michigan kids. All right,
we'll get to the NFL. That's my, you know, it's
one of my passion points is that replay across the
board in sports is terrible. I know I'm right and
I feel like we're going in the wrong direction on it.
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remain active. on the Boost Unlimited plan. All right, Demanze,
let's get right to it. My picks for week one.
First pick of the season.
Speaker 2 (34:22):
First pick of the season, we're going with New Orleans,
plus seven and a half at Detroit.
Speaker 1 (34:29):
So listen, my feeling on Detroit is very simple. I
think certainly the first month of the season, maybe the
whole season, but certainly the first month of the season,
you're going to be able to throw on them. They
still have not found a reliable pass rusher opposite Aiden Hutchinson.
Both of their safeties, Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph, are
(34:51):
out injured. Obviously, they had to cut their best corner,
Terry and Arnold. So if I think, and I'm not
low on Tyler Shuck, I'm not high on Tyler Shuck.
But what I will tell you is, I think the
Saints are going to air it out. And so this
feels to me like a game because I'm getting seven
(35:11):
and the hook. Now, you know, there's a, you're paying
a little bit of an extra price on that, but
that is, you know, you can with that polymark, you
get it very easily. New Orleans plus seven and a half. I,
I think there's backdoor cover potential. I think there is
sneaky upset potential, but not really. But I think there's
(35:34):
a lot of worlds where Detroit is up. 10, 13,
14 in this game. Detroit is up that and New
Orleans ends up losing by seven, losing potentially by three.
So it's too many points. I talked to you guys
about week one favorites of more than a touchdown. I
think Detroit's past defense is super susceptible. We talked to
(35:59):
Cam Jordan on the show. If that Saints' D-line is
as good as he thinks it can be. Obviously, he's biased,
and he's dealing with a hamstring injury. I think you
can get pressure to Jared Goff up the middle. Shuck
was 7-2 against the spread last year as a starter
with the Saints. Now, Dan Campbell and Jared Goff have
(36:19):
been nails in September, so that's not good. But New
Orleans plus 7.5, first pick of the year.
Speaker 2 (36:26):
Solid. Well said. Tampa Bay plus 3.5 at Cincinnati.
Speaker 1 (36:33):
Yeah, I mean, this is my favorite pick. Cincinnati, every year,
starts slow. Week one of Burrow, they start 0-2. Year
one of Burrow, they start 0-2. Year two of Joe Burrow,
(36:54):
they win in week one in overtime, lose in week two.
Week three of Joe Burrow, They start week three, sorry,
year three Joe Burrow. They start 0-2. Year four Joe Burrow,
they start 0-2. Year five Joe Burrow, they start 0-2,
0-3 actually. Year six Joe Burrow, they start 2-0. Week
(37:27):
one is one of the worst wins anyone had in
the NFL all year. A 17-16 last-second victory over Joe
Flacco and the Cleveland Browns. So even last year, when
they made such a big deal that they were going
to start slow or start fast, Joe Burrow threw for
113 yards that game. They are laying more than a
(37:51):
field goal. Against, my God, a team that's due. The
Bucs didn't cover nine in a row to end last year.
Baker got the new contract. I think Tampa Bay goes
to Cincinnati and wins outright. At the very least, I
don't think Cincinnati's beating them by margin. Tampa Bay plus
(38:11):
three and a half is the obvious one. At least
for me, that's the pick. So I like Tampa plus
three and a half.
Speaker 2 (38:20):
For your third pick, you got Houston plus one and
a half against Buffalo.
Speaker 1 (38:25):
Houston getting a point and a half at home when
what Houston's defense has done to Josh Allen the last
two times they have played him. Josh Allen. Well, Josh
Allen last year in Houston, zero touchdowns, two picks, turns
(38:48):
it over. In the red zone. At the end of
that game. They lose. Josh Allen the year before. The
worst game of his career. 9 of 30. He was
9 of 30. For 130 yards. Against that D'Amico Ryan defense. The.
(39:08):
Now he also. I think he's lost to him a
couple other times. That was before D'Amico got there. I.
The point and a half is valuable there.
Speaker 3 (39:17):
They.
Speaker 1 (39:18):
There's, you know, there are game scripts where Buffalo wins
and I still win the, I'm still on the right side, 21-20.
That's a, you know, that's me being on the right
side of it. It's a rare score, but 17-16. Buffalo
holds Houston to three field goals and one touchdown. Buffalo
ends up with 17. I understand the feeling squeamish about
(39:46):
how C.J. Stroud looked in the postseason. But this is
Houston at home. This is that D'Amico Ryan's defense fully
healthy and a Buffalo team with the first game of
a rookie head coach. I'm getting a point and a
half with a team that I think is just as
good as Buffalo and they're the home team. I'll take
(40:06):
Houston plus the point and a half.
Speaker 2 (40:08):
Not worried about Stroud. Not worried about Josh Allen either.
Speaker 1 (40:13):
Listen, I think Josh Allen's awesome. This is one team
that is really, D'Amico Ryan's defense has befuddled him. And
I just, of course I'm worried about Stroud, but I
don't think the Bills have a great pass defense this year.
We'll see how it looks. I just, I think Houston
and Buffalo are equal teams. Houston's at home and they're
(40:36):
getting points. It's not a lot of points, but they're
getting points. I'll take Houston plus a point and a
half in a game that I actually think it should
be flipped. I think it should be Houston minus one
and a half. It's Houston plus a point and a half.
Speaker 2 (40:49):
All right.
Speaker 1 (40:50):
So I've gone so far with three dogs. We've got
our first favorite.
Speaker 2 (40:56):
And it's Philly minus five and a half versus Washington.
All right.
Speaker 1 (41:01):
Listen, last few years, Philly has been a covering machine
early in the season. Washington has struggled early in the
season under Dan Quinn. But most notably, the reason this is,
now again, I didn't tell you that whole Monty Hall
story and then be like, but before the year, this
(41:21):
is how I felt. But we are still before the year.
So how I feel about teams going into a year,
that's all I can base it on right now. I
think Philly is going to be excellent defensively.
Speaker 2 (41:31):
Excellent.
Speaker 1 (41:33):
I think Washington is going to struggle mightily. I think
Philly might have the best D-line outside of the Rams
in the whole NFL. Washington might have the worst offensive
line situation in their whole conference. I think this is
a game Jalen Carter can wreck on his own. I
(41:53):
am laying less than a touchdown with a team that
I feel is a real Super Bowl contender against a
team that I feel like is, you know, Likely to
be picking in the top 10. I think this is
simply an offensive line, defensive line mismatch. Philadelphia laying five
(42:14):
and a half. Also a little bit of a Jalen
Hurts chip on his shoulder. First game, no A.J. Brown.
Saquon Barkley, oh, don't forget about me. You know, Jameer Gibbs, B.
John Robinson, everybody. Philly laying five and a half at
home against Washington. Is my final pick.
Speaker 2 (42:34):
Fonte Smith's first year as a wide receiver won, right?
Speaker 1 (42:36):
Number one. First year since he won the Heisman at Alabama.
Speaker 2 (42:41):
I was surprised to not see this one in your
stay aways considering Tuesday's pod. But lastly, you've got Kansas
City minus two and a half against Denver.
Speaker 1 (42:50):
Listen. I don't love what's happening at left tackle for
the Chiefs. But ultimately... Patrick Mahomes, as a favorite of
less than three, or as an underdog, is 30-13-1. I
(43:14):
don't think the Chiefs and Broncos are dead even teams.
I think the Chiefs are a cut above last year notwithstanding.
We'll see if I'm correct. This game's in Kansas City.
They're only two and a half point favorites. That means
what they're telling us is they think the Chiefs and
Broncos are dead even teams. I do not. I think
(43:35):
the Broncos are really going to miss Jonathan Franklin Myers,
who they lost in pre-agency, and Jonathan Cooper, they lost
the commissioner's exempt list. I think Patrick has been frothing
at the mouth waiting for this game for seven months.
I think Kenneth Walker is a massive, massive upgrade for
Kansas City, and I think that Bo Nix in that
(43:57):
environment Monday night football, fresh off his first game back
since ankle surgery. I think that Broncos, even against this young,
new Chiefs defense, that Broncos offense could struggle. I watched
this Broncos team go to Arrowhead on Christmas against the
Chiefs third stringers and Crystal Leducan, and that game's tied
(44:20):
with two minutes left. I'll lay the two and a
half with Patrick in Kansas City. That is my final pick.
So to Monzi, my five picks are for week one
of the season. New Orleans getting seven and a half
in Detroit. Tampa getting three and a half in Cincy.
Houston getting one and a half at home against Buffalo.
(44:40):
Philly laying five and a half at home against Washington.
And Kansas City laying two and a half at home
against Denver. We will talk touchdowns and teasers in a moment.
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(45:30):
All right. I am looking at, they have thrown in
there some potential touchdown genie options.
Speaker 2 (45:41):
Eric Henry, I feel like you got to get a
lower percentage for that.
Speaker 1 (45:45):
Yeah, I mean, you don't want to lay, he's at 66%
to score one. So that's the equivalent of essentially minus 200.
You don't love that. Travis Hunter's at 10% to score.
You need way better than that. Like the, I almost,
here is, oh, you know what's fun? This is one
of the fun things about Polymarket. We can bet no
(46:08):
on some of these. You can just go the opposite.
Speaker 2 (46:11):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (46:12):
So, listen, I am going to spend more time looking
at the touchdown numbers markets on Polymarket later in the season.
We're not going to do a touchdown genie this week,
but we might go anti-touchdown genie. We might on some
of these just go no. Like the and see how
(46:32):
we do on that. Now you're going to be laying
real money, but that's how I would do it.
Speaker 2 (46:37):
All right, come on. Put the genie back in the bottle.
I like that.
Speaker 1 (46:40):
We need to. Putting the genie back in the bottle.
Speaker 2 (46:44):
What a great line.
Speaker 1 (46:46):
That's exactly right. All right. I'm deeply invested, and you
are doing a three-team, eight-point, on Polymarket they call it combo. Historically,
we've called this your teaser. Tell me your three teams,
your eight points. The same rules apply to combos as
(47:09):
to teasers for me. Let's see how I grade it.
Let's see what you got.
Speaker 2 (47:14):
So we're going to go Detroit, get them up to
plus one and a half, and then Green Bay. Don't
love Jacobs and Micah being out, but plus ten and
a half, it's the Vikings. I feel like they're in
a fair spot. And then lastly, we've got the Broncos
against your Chiefs at ten and a half, plus ten
and a half.
Speaker 1 (47:36):
I mean, listen, Green Bay and Denver are great legs.
Taking teams from plus two and a half To plus
ten and a half is fine. Going through the zero,
it's just such a bad way to start off the year.
Speaker 2 (47:52):
Not far away.
Speaker 1 (47:53):
You could have just taken Jacksonville down to a pick. No.
Speaker 2 (47:58):
I get it. Who does Jacksonville have? Cleveland. They have Cleveland. Okay.
Speaker 1 (48:04):
No, I'm not swaying you. You got your thing.
Speaker 2 (48:07):
No, it's the Saints. I'm totally comfortable. Plus one and
a half, Detroit. Lock it in. Lock it in. Follow
me on.
Speaker 1 (48:13):
Detroit plus one and a half. Green Bay plus ten
and a half. Denver plus ten and a half. You're
laying a little juice because it's an eight-pointer, and I'm
here to tell you I'm giving you a C. I
wish I could give you a better grade, but you're
going through your first pick, first thing on my screen.
You're going through zero. I don't love it. All right,
make me my offer before we go.
Speaker 2 (48:32):
The offer is back. So the Panthers, they made the
mistake of trading away the pick that became Caleb Williams.
And now he's come back for revenge. So this week,
we're comboing Caleb three-plus passing touchdowns and 300-plus pass yards.
That is at 8%. That's at 8%, so it's 12.5
to 1.
Speaker 3 (48:49):
8%.
Speaker 2 (48:49):
Big game.
Speaker 1 (48:50):
This one in 12 times. You know what? If we
can get that at 8%, 12.5 to 1, I'll take it.
(49:14):
I don't mind that. There's a monster. Do I think
that Ben Johnson, you know, who's probably... proud of himself
at all times, there's a world where he just tries
to run up the score and Caleb cooks. Does that
happen more than one in 12 times this game is played?
I say yes. So Caleb- Drake May has the worst
(49:34):
regular season game of his career. Caleb has the best.
We revisit that quarterback draft discussion. I'll take it. Start
there off by taking the offer.
Welcome to the best of the week for What's Right
with Nick Wright. The best takes and moments from this
week on the show. Enjoy!
Speaker 2 (00:09):
So yeah, the game was rough. Darnold went down in
the first drive. You got A.J. Brown. He went down.
Drake May threw three interceptions. Seahawks still found a way
to get it done. Who do you think should be
more worried or panicked this morning? New England fans with
Drake May or Seahawks fans with Sam Darnold's injury? Can
I say one thing before you start, though? Why on earth?
(00:31):
This game was so bad in the Super Bowl. It
was like a really bad game. And we thought we
should make this the first game of the season in
the next year. And I feel like it panned out
to be the same exact thing the last game of
the season.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Was last year. Well, listen, it's two marquee teams. When
you look at Seattle's home schedule, there were only a
few real options for who that game was going to be, right?
Speaker 2 (00:57):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
I didn't think they were going to put Seahawks-Rams as
the first game of the year. I thought they might
save it, so take that one off the board. Seahawks-Niners, Seahawks-Chargers, Seahawks...
There's another home game. Giants doesn't really have the star quality.
(01:21):
So your other home game possibilities were Seahawks-Patriots... Seahawks Cowboys,
Seahawks Bears, and Seahawks Chiefs. Those are home Seahawks games.
When they set the schedule, they don't know if Mahomes
is going to be healthy. So you can't have the
Chiefs on your standalone Wednesday night game without Mahomes out there.
(01:45):
So he's out. You don't... Cowboys, Seahawks, Cowboys, every Cowboys
game is such a big ratings draw anyway. You don't need...
to almost burn the opening game of the year. So
I thought that was out. So it was really, to me,
it came down to Seahawks-Bears or Seahawks-Patriots. I thought they'd
go Seahawks-Bears, you know, kind of a big Caleb thing
(02:06):
plus the defending champs. The NFL decided, let's give the
Patriots a chance to get some get back. It was
a huge risk, huge reward moment for New England. You
go out and win that game, that might all of
a sudden just cure your Super Bowl hangover. Might just
be like, you know what? We're better. We're a different team.
You do all those things. The flip side is you
(02:28):
lose the game and you're like, oh man, they're just
better than us. You lose the game the way they
lost it. And that's a tough one to recover from.
So listen, the Darnold piece of it is pretty simple.
If he did not break his hip and they seem
(02:50):
to be confident he did not, He should be back
at some point. And if he's back, they should be okay.
So like we can, we'll do more on the Seahawks.
And I don't, you know, love starting with the losing
team because it feels negative rather than starting with the winner,
especially when the defending champs, you win with your backup quarterback.
(03:14):
But the story of that game yesterday is unequivocally undeniably
the The absolute meltdown by Drake May. They had the
ball three times in the fourth quarter. All three possessions,
he threw a different type of outrageous interception. Up 10-3
(03:42):
in the fourth quarter, in control of the game. On
second and nine, on the plus side of the field,
throws a bomb down the deep sideline that it wasn't
easily picked because it was tipped by one, caught by
(04:04):
the other, but it was into double coverage. You have
control of the game. You're up a touchdown. You're one
first down away from being up double digits in the
fourth quarter against Drew Locke. You give the Seahawks life
with that. Seattle then comes back, scores their only touchdown
(04:27):
of the game on a gutsy, don't let it be
forgotten in the details of the game, play call. Fourth down,
which was a pretty obvious go-for-it situation. It was fourth
and one. But fourth and one with a backup quarterback,
you call a pass. Have him drop back. JSN. Cooks.
(04:49):
The highest paid corner in the history of the NFL.
And then scampers to the end zone. All right, tie game.
We got a ball game now. Very next possession. Drake May.
throws not a carbon copy, but a very similar interception
(05:10):
to the one he threw in the Super Bowl, where
he just didn't read where the safeties were. The one
in the Super Bowl when Collinsworth says, I don't know
what to tell you there. If you remember, I think
his exact quote was, I got nothing for you there, Mike,
because he didn't know why Drake May did it.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
His receiver didn't let him down on that one? I
feel like his receiver fell down a little early on
that one. I feel like he could have made a
play on the ball.
Speaker 1 (05:39):
Romeo Dobbs had... An abomination of a game. And we'll
get more on him in a moment. He's the guy
they were throwing to there. You're right. He seemed to
stumble a bit. But it was a risky throw. It
was a risky throw that didn't need to be made.
And he clearly thought the safety wasn't going to be there.
(06:00):
Because had Dobbs not fallen down and it was a
slightly better throw, it would have just been potentially a
hospital ball for Dobbs. And so... Now all of a sudden,
Seattle gets the ball back. They go and get a
field goal. Next possession, Drake makes some plays. Drake all
of a sudden has a fourth down run. They have
(06:22):
a fourth and nine, a nice little completion over the
middle of the field. And now you find yourself, Seattle's
got no timeouts. You have the ball inside the 20
with one timeout in your pocket. It's third and five.
(06:45):
If something easy and obvious is there, you take it.
If not, you can try to pick it up with
your legs because you have the timeout. You also obviously
can just throw it out the back of the end zone. Instead,
he throws a fadeaway jump shot to the front corner
of the end zone. And... Kills them. Good night, good luck.
(07:14):
You were about to have pulled it out of the fire.
be 13-13 going into overtime with Drew Locke, more on
him in a bit, standing across the other side of
the field from you. Great chance to not get a
win you feel amazing about, but start 1-0. Arguably, it's
(07:35):
the single toughest game on your schedule. Kind of steal
it without playing your best ball. Keep it moving. And
Drake May, and this is the concern piece, continued a
very alarming trend of now five games in a row, granted,
(07:58):
all five against very good defenses, of awful ball. Not mediocre, not,
you know, subpar. That's five games in a row of
wildly damaging football from Drake Mack. And you guys know
(08:21):
I'm a Drake May believer. But the playoff run and
how he looked against good competition and how frazzled he
looked and the fact that they're... You know, do people
not realize I do the pod every Thursday? My agent
(08:42):
called me. Your sister called me. Drake May... how frazzled
he looked repeatedly against these types of defenses in the playoffs,
starting off the season like that, alarm bells ring a
(09:04):
little bit. Last year in the regular season, okay, Drake May,
4,400 yards in 17 games. That's 258 yards per game.
A 113 rating. 31 passing touchdowns to eight interceptions. Did
(09:25):
get sacked a lot, but you were able to sustain it.
Added four more rushing touchdowns last year. Drake May in
the five games since the end of the last regular season.
(09:47):
One touchdown, one pick, an 87 rating. to go along
with one fumble lost. His team scored 16 points against
the Chargers. His best playoff game. three touchdown passes against
that dominant Texans defense. Even in that game, less than
(10:07):
180 yards passing, less than 60% completions, one pick, four fumbles,
two fumbles lost. The AFC championship game, in the snow
against Denver, 86 yards passing. The Super Bowl, stone nothing
(10:30):
until the game was decided in the fourth quarter when
he added 220 fourth quarter yards going into the fourth quarter,
less than 75 yards passing, finished the game with two
picks and another fumble lost. And now this game yesterday,
(10:50):
A 55 passer rating. One touchdown, three interceptions. And if
you're the Patriots, Demanze, you are very lucky this game
was not far more lopsided. Think about the things, the
four penalties that drastically changed how this game looked. Flea
(11:17):
flicker to A.J. Brown. He's wide open. Drake may throws
one of his worst passes of the night under throws
him so much. It turns into that vintage under thrown
deep ball pass interference. That's what set up the Patriots
first and only touchdown. They scored one other time in
(11:38):
the game, a field goal. What happened on that drive?
They're punting roughing the punter. There's three points there. Seattle,
on the other hand, once Drew Locke got going, touchdown
Cooper Cup. Nope. Illegal shift. That seven becomes three. Later
(11:59):
in the game, on the field goal that gave them
the lead, they have a third and one inside the 10.
They false start. Turns into a third and six. They
end up settling for a field goal. That's... Four separate
errors by Seattle that New England didn't, like, earn, so
(12:23):
to speak, that either led to New England points or
took potentially more points off the board for the Seahawks.
This could have been really ugly.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
They were missing key pieces, and obviously they had Drew
Locke in the game.
Speaker 1 (12:39):
Well, that's the other piece of it, man. The... The
Patriots treated Drew Locke as if he were Jared Stidham.
And the game plan from the AFC Championship game was
(13:00):
going to work. And the thing about that is, it
might have if Drake May didn't go full meltdown mode.
They got super conservative and.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
It seemed like the Seahawks trusted Drew Locke more than
the Patriots trusted Drake May.
Speaker 1 (13:21):
And maybe it was because the Seahawks had no choice
because they were trailing. But Locke at one point was
15 of 18. He finishes 16 of 22. A buck 87.
Eight and a half yards per attempt. One touchdown. No
turnovers or near turnovers. Would have been a second touchdown
(13:42):
as well, by the way, if not for that illegal
shift that I mentioned. And a 113 rating. Like, we
just went over the Drake May numbers. And so, whatever
questions DeMonte people had about how good were the Patriots really,
(14:06):
those are now going to pop up even more. And
there are, and this is one thing I flagged last
year during the year that I do think warrants mentioning.
Because it was all of Drake May's passes were on
passes deep down the field. Drake May to start last
(14:28):
year was on an all-time, how do I see my
own Twitter likes? Gosh darn it. Do I have to
update the app? I got to figure this out because
this is how I favorite things. And now I can't
even find them. Son of a gun.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
Um, dinking and dunking.
Speaker 1 (14:45):
No, it's not that. Let me, let me find the
exact Scott Casimir had the exact stats. Um, but it's
something I had been talking about before, which is Drake Mays,
deep ball heater and whether or not it was sustainable.
So let me find it real quick. Okay. Here it is.
(15:07):
Last year. Drake Mays started the season 13 of 17
on passes of 20 plus yards down the field. He
was unstoppable on bombs. It was what unlocked so much
of his amazing stats. I mean, set more than 75%
(15:31):
completion percentage on deep passes. Since the midway point of
last year, He is 17 of 54 on those same passes. 31.5%.
Last night, he was 0 for 4 with three picks
(15:53):
on those deep passes. Well, might be 0 for 4
with two picks because I think the second pick, I'm
not sure exactly how many air yards one of the
picks was. Regardless, he was 0 for 4 on them
last night. That's a concern. Another concern for New England, Amonze.
(16:15):
And I don't... People get annoyed with me on this.
I am never surprised when older players get hurt. People
can say, oh, and we'll get to Darnold in a minute. Oh, listen, A.J. Brown,
that's unlucky. He sprained his ankle. It was unlucky. And
it's a high ankle sprain, which is usually six weeks. Like, A.J.
(16:40):
Brown on the shelf for six weeks. And you can
say his age is not why he sprained his ankle.
I don't know that. I know that as guys get older...
their ability, like their body's ability, his age isn't why
he got tackled and his, you know, and fell that way.
(17:02):
But do I think that a 23 year old athlete
is more likely to have that not result in a
high ankle sprain than a 29 year old athlete? I do.
And I think there's a lot of, you know, there's
a million LeBron stories of young LeBron and spraining his ankle,
tightening his shoelaces, and just keep playing. Now that might
(17:25):
be an unfair comp, but there are two big offensive
acquisitions of the offseason. A.J. Brown, Romeo Dobbs. A.J., I
don't think we'll see him again until mid-October at the earliest.
We'll see. Romeo Dobbs was a catastrophe. When they were,
(17:50):
they signed him to four years, $ 68 million. That's $ 17
million a year. You know, I've never loved that whole
crew of Green Bay receivers. I thought they all were
a touch overstated. They paid him like he's a legit
number two. He could not get on the field when
(18:13):
they were in 11 personnel, which is the exact, like,
That 11 personnel means you have five offensive linemen, one quarterback.
So there's six guys, one running back, one tight end.
The 11 is one running back, one tight end. 11
personnel means you have three receivers out there. He wasn't
one of them for big portions of the game until A.J.
(18:39):
Brown went out. He was, you know, not featured at all.
And then once A.J. Brown went out, and I'm trying
to find the snap counts from the game, and they
went to him, it went disastrously. He ended up with,
let me find it exactly. I know he had zero
(19:01):
for zero. Three targets, zero catches, zero yards. One of
the targets turned into a pick. One of them was
one of Drake May's better plays on something and long,
and Dobbs just dropped it. One of the biggest plays
of the game, just a flat drop. The Patriots traded
away Kayshaun Booty to the Texans three weeks ago.
Speaker 2 (19:24):
He's a dog. I like Kayshaun Booty. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (19:28):
And Brable said, you know, listen, he would have been
inactive for us on game day. Yeah. Not if A.J.
Brown's out a month. Like that Patriots offense looked slow.
The offensive line was marginally better, but not marginally, much
better than it was in the Super Bowl, but it
(19:49):
also wasn't. the penalties on Will Campbell were a killer
that that is a garish loss given the fact that
the opposing team's starting quarterback went out two throws into
the season.
Speaker 2 (20:09):
Any way to wipe a little bit of this away
in week two? It's Pittsburgh. Can you erase that in
any way?
Speaker 1 (20:15):
I mean, you're going to hear it. Patriots' first month
of the year, of which I am very confident A.J.
Brown's not going to play. Home for the Steelers at Jacksonville.
Excellent defense at the Bills. one of your biggest games
(20:40):
of the year. A team that went 14-3 last year
is staring down the barrel of a 1-3 start. And
Drake May's confidence, he threw eight interceptions in 17 games
last year. He has thrown six interceptions in his last
(21:02):
five games. And that's not even to mention the How
many fumbles does he have total in those games? Seven. Now,
those aren't all lost, obviously. But... Whatever level of confidence
he was at... Oh, and I'm wrong. It's not six interceptions.
(21:22):
He has... After last season, he had eight picks. In
his last five games, he has seven picks and seven fumbles.
And has been sacked 24 times. I... I'd be very
worried if I were New England. Football is back, and
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Speaker 2 (23:40):
Yeah, week one of college football is officially in the books,
and the big story is out of the Michigan and
Western Michigan game, the Hail Mary, was that one second
left or no seconds left, and then there was a second?
What happened there?
Speaker 1 (23:52):
So, the reason I want to talk about this, and
I'm not going to spend a lot of time on it,
and this is a bit of a hobby horse of mine,
but at some point, I wonder if we will gain...
enough positive momentum on the right side of this debate,
(24:19):
which is replay in sports does not make the games better,
more watchable, or most importantly for many, more fair. And
this Western Michigan-Michigan ending is a great example, a great example,
(24:40):
of how you can understand why someone would write a
rule that says, oh, well, certainly something that's reviewable is
a clock error. And even if you stripped replay down
to the studs, one of the things you would leave
(25:02):
in as you know, the, the, the barest minimum of
things that should be able to be reviewed, we would
say is a clock error. Like that's black and white.
That's yes or no. That's binary. And even those types
of reviews cannot be trusted to be adjudicated properly. And
(25:26):
the only path that The only available path to remove
that type of outrageous theft from Western Michigan, an outright
theft of what would have been the greatest moment for
all of those players' athletic careers, beating Michigan on the
(25:48):
road after thoroughly outplaying them for 60 minutes. The only
way to remove that type of egregious error from taking
place is to remove replay entirely. And we so often,
(26:09):
like think about just in the last handful of football games,
let me put it like this. If we go back
to last year's NFL, the end of the NFL season,
or if we go back to the end of the season,
(26:31):
the playoffs, what are the moments replay came up and
we feel like, man, that saved a huge mistake? And
what are the moments replay came up and we say,
you've got to be kidding me? One could argue that
(26:54):
The Super Bowl, not one could argue, the path to
the Super Bowl inarguably was altered by one of the
most bizarre replay decisions any of us have ever seen,
which was in Seahawks-Rams regular season near the end of
the year that determined the one seed, that determined who
(27:15):
won that division, that very well may have determined the
Seahawks winning the Super Bowl. When the Seahawks went for
a two-point conversion, for everyone watching, everyone involved, it was
an incomplete pass. A couple seconds after the pass was incomplete,
a player didn't dive on the ball, a player didn't,
(27:37):
you know, fight for the ball, was walking past the ball,
laying on the ground, and picked it up with one hand,
and then walked off the field. And somehow instant replay determined, actually,
that was a successful two-point conversion because that was a
lateral pass that was batted down. And even though everyone
in the stadium, all the coaches, all the players in
(28:00):
real time thought that play was over, well, actually, that
was a live ball, it turns out. Seahawks get the
two points. They end up winning the game in overtime. Well,
replay will, you know, replay eliminates the arguing. AFC divisional
(28:20):
round game, Bill's Broncos, Josh Allen's fourth and final turnover.
The bomb down the field, that was a catch. No,
it was an interception. No, it was a catch. No,
it was an interception. Ruled on the field, an interception. Reviewed,
still an interception. Did that end the argument? No, Sean
(28:40):
McDermott is calling media from the bus on the way
home saying, I can't believe they didn't overturn it. And
then Western Michigan, Michigan, clear as day, that clock expired.
The players, the refs in real time, the coaches. And
(29:04):
we go to a replay that then shows the clock
was wrong and it actually had a half second left.
It's just bad for sports. And when replay came back
to the NFL... It was because Vinny Testaverde was two
yards short of a touchdown. His helmet crossed the line.
(29:27):
The ref thought his helmet was the football. And they
were like, we have to fix those egregious mistakes. And
the mission creep of that has gotten to such. an
outrageous place that yes occasionally occasionally there is I'll use
(29:49):
one that worked in my favor Chiefs Ravens week one
a couple years ago Ravens down eight Lamar or Ravens
down seven actually They were going to go for two.
Lamar to Isaiah Likely, back of the end zone. Touchdown.
It's reviewed. Oh my gosh, the tip of his toe
(30:10):
was out of bounds. I will take those types of, man,
the ref missed it by this much error, not being fixed,
in order to remove the absurdity of some of these
other overturns. The stoppages, the fact that it totally, and Michigan,
(30:33):
Western Michigan didn't matter because it was the last play
of the game, but the fact that it totally disregards
how much fatigue and conditioning and being able to play
without long stoppages matter and impact games. Like, across the board,
The only sport that seemingly has gotten replay right is
(30:56):
tennis because it's automated and instantaneous. And one could argue
that's actually also been bad for tennis because it's removed
some of the theater of tennis, which was people arguing
about line calls. That because it's automated and like that,
you don't get the passion of John McEnroe breaking his
(31:18):
racket and screaming. Go ahead. What'd you say? Sorry.
Speaker 2 (31:21):
What about baseball? They added the whole ABS thing.
Speaker 1 (31:25):
So, again, I... Replay in baseball, it sounded like... Let
me go pre-ABS. It sounded like a good idea. Was
the guy safer out on a stolen base? Did he
beat the tag or not? And then we found out
far more often than... them using replay to determine whether
(31:49):
or not someone beat the tag, what they were going
to do was use replay to determine if someone clearly
stole the base, beat the tag, and then post beating
the tag for a microsecond when he was sliding past
the base, came off the base in a way that
was not discernible to the naked eye, he's going to
(32:11):
be out because of that. Which is, again, a perversion
of the rule and not what it's there for. ABS seems...
Here's the thing about ABS. That is less replay and
more what it's called, automated balls and strikes. And they are,
(32:34):
to me, pretty clearly, ABS... They are using it as
a replay system... in order to at some point simply
have that be the system where there is no human
being calling balls and strikes. But in general, I liked
pitch framing. I liked an umpire setting his own strike zone.
(32:58):
But people can say that's terrible, in which case that's fine.
Just go to the automated technology from the beginning, and
then it's not even replay anyway. It's just the system.
It's just more bad than good for sports. It makes
watching them less fun. It makes it harder to celebrate,
you know, the end of a game victory because you're
just a little worried. You got to worry about is
(33:20):
there a flag and you got to worry are they
going to review something and people want more of it.
And I feel sick for the Western Michigan kids. All right,
we'll get to the NFL. That's my, you know, it's
one of my passion points is that replay across the
board in sports is terrible. I know I'm right and
I feel like we're going in the wrong direction on it.
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remain active. on the Boost Unlimited plan. All right, Demanze,
let's get right to it. My picks for week one.
First pick of the season.
Speaker 2 (34:22):
First pick of the season, we're going with New Orleans,
plus seven and a half at Detroit.
Speaker 1 (34:29):
So listen, my feeling on Detroit is very simple. I
think certainly the first month of the season, maybe the
whole season, but certainly the first month of the season,
you're going to be able to throw on them. They
still have not found a reliable pass rusher opposite Aiden Hutchinson.
Both of their safeties, Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph, are
(34:51):
out injured. Obviously, they had to cut their best corner,
Terry and Arnold. So if I think, and I'm not
low on Tyler Shuck, I'm not high on Tyler Shuck.
But what I will tell you is, I think the
Saints are going to air it out. And so this
feels to me like a game because I'm getting seven
(35:11):
and the hook. Now, you know, there's a, you're paying
a little bit of an extra price on that, but
that is, you know, you can with that polymark, you
get it very easily. New Orleans plus seven and a half. I,
I think there's backdoor cover potential. I think there is
sneaky upset potential, but not really. But I think there's
(35:34):
a lot of worlds where Detroit is up. 10, 13,
14 in this game. Detroit is up that and New
Orleans ends up losing by seven, losing potentially by three.
So it's too many points. I talked to you guys
about week one favorites of more than a touchdown. I
think Detroit's past defense is super susceptible. We talked to
(35:59):
Cam Jordan on the show. If that Saints' D-line is
as good as he thinks it can be. Obviously, he's biased,
and he's dealing with a hamstring injury. I think you
can get pressure to Jared Goff up the middle. Shuck
was 7-2 against the spread last year as a starter
with the Saints. Now, Dan Campbell and Jared Goff have
(36:19):
been nails in September, so that's not good. But New
Orleans plus 7.5, first pick of the year.
Speaker 2 (36:26):
Solid. Well said. Tampa Bay plus 3.5 at Cincinnati.
Speaker 1 (36:33):
Yeah, I mean, this is my favorite pick. Cincinnati, every year,
starts slow. Week one of Burrow, they start 0-2. Year
one of Burrow, they start 0-2. Year two of Joe Burrow,
(36:54):
they win in week one in overtime, lose in week two.
Week three of Joe Burrow, They start week three, sorry,
year three Joe Burrow. They start 0-2. Year four Joe Burrow,
they start 0-2. Year five Joe Burrow, they start 0-2,
0-3 actually. Year six Joe Burrow, they start 2-0. Week
(37:27):
one is one of the worst wins anyone had in
the NFL all year. A 17-16 last-second victory over Joe
Flacco and the Cleveland Browns. So even last year, when
they made such a big deal that they were going
to start slow or start fast, Joe Burrow threw for
113 yards that game. They are laying more than a
(37:51):
field goal. Against, my God, a team that's due. The
Bucs didn't cover nine in a row to end last year.
Baker got the new contract. I think Tampa Bay goes
to Cincinnati and wins outright. At the very least, I
don't think Cincinnati's beating them by margin. Tampa Bay plus
(38:11):
three and a half is the obvious one. At least
for me, that's the pick. So I like Tampa plus
three and a half.
Speaker 2 (38:20):
For your third pick, you got Houston plus one and
a half against Buffalo.
Speaker 1 (38:25):
Houston getting a point and a half at home when
what Houston's defense has done to Josh Allen the last
two times they have played him. Josh Allen. Well, Josh
Allen last year in Houston, zero touchdowns, two picks, turns
(38:48):
it over. In the red zone. At the end of
that game. They lose. Josh Allen the year before. The
worst game of his career. 9 of 30. He was
9 of 30. For 130 yards. Against that D'Amico Ryan defense. The.
(39:08):
Now he also. I think he's lost to him a
couple other times. That was before D'Amico got there. I.
The point and a half is valuable there.
Speaker 3 (39:17):
They.
Speaker 1 (39:18):
There's, you know, there are game scripts where Buffalo wins
and I still win the, I'm still on the right side, 21-20.
That's a, you know, that's me being on the right
side of it. It's a rare score, but 17-16. Buffalo
holds Houston to three field goals and one touchdown. Buffalo
ends up with 17. I understand the feeling squeamish about
(39:46):
how C.J. Stroud looked in the postseason. But this is
Houston at home. This is that D'Amico Ryan's defense fully
healthy and a Buffalo team with the first game of
a rookie head coach. I'm getting a point and a
half with a team that I think is just as
good as Buffalo and they're the home team. I'll take
(40:06):
Houston plus the point and a half.
Speaker 2 (40:08):
Not worried about Stroud. Not worried about Josh Allen either.
Speaker 1 (40:13):
Listen, I think Josh Allen's awesome. This is one team
that is really, D'Amico Ryan's defense has befuddled him. And
I just, of course I'm worried about Stroud, but I
don't think the Bills have a great pass defense this year.
We'll see how it looks. I just, I think Houston
and Buffalo are equal teams. Houston's at home and they're
(40:36):
getting points. It's not a lot of points, but they're
getting points. I'll take Houston plus a point and a
half in a game that I actually think it should
be flipped. I think it should be Houston minus one
and a half. It's Houston plus a point and a half.
Speaker 2 (40:49):
All right.
Speaker 1 (40:50):
So I've gone so far with three dogs. We've got
our first favorite.
Speaker 2 (40:56):
And it's Philly minus five and a half versus Washington.
All right.
Speaker 1 (41:01):
Listen, last few years, Philly has been a covering machine
early in the season. Washington has struggled early in the
season under Dan Quinn. But most notably, the reason this is,
now again, I didn't tell you that whole Monty Hall
story and then be like, but before the year, this
(41:21):
is how I felt. But we are still before the year.
So how I feel about teams going into a year,
that's all I can base it on right now. I
think Philly is going to be excellent defensively.
Speaker 2 (41:31):
Excellent.
Speaker 1 (41:33):
I think Washington is going to struggle mightily. I think
Philly might have the best D-line outside of the Rams
in the whole NFL. Washington might have the worst offensive
line situation in their whole conference. I think this is
a game Jalen Carter can wreck on his own. I
(41:53):
am laying less than a touchdown with a team that
I feel is a real Super Bowl contender against a
team that I feel like is, you know, Likely to
be picking in the top 10. I think this is
simply an offensive line, defensive line mismatch. Philadelphia laying five
(42:14):
and a half. Also a little bit of a Jalen
Hurts chip on his shoulder. First game, no A.J. Brown.
Saquon Barkley, oh, don't forget about me. You know, Jameer Gibbs, B.
John Robinson, everybody. Philly laying five and a half at
home against Washington. Is my final pick.
Speaker 2 (42:34):
Fonte Smith's first year as a wide receiver won, right?
Speaker 1 (42:36):
Number one. First year since he won the Heisman at Alabama.
Speaker 2 (42:41):
I was surprised to not see this one in your
stay aways considering Tuesday's pod. But lastly, you've got Kansas
City minus two and a half against Denver.
Speaker 1 (42:50):
Listen. I don't love what's happening at left tackle for
the Chiefs. But ultimately... Patrick Mahomes, as a favorite of
less than three, or as an underdog, is 30-13-1. I
(43:14):
don't think the Chiefs and Broncos are dead even teams.
I think the Chiefs are a cut above last year notwithstanding.
We'll see if I'm correct. This game's in Kansas City.
They're only two and a half point favorites. That means
what they're telling us is they think the Chiefs and
Broncos are dead even teams. I do not. I think
(43:35):
the Broncos are really going to miss Jonathan Franklin Myers,
who they lost in pre-agency, and Jonathan Cooper, they lost
the commissioner's exempt list. I think Patrick has been frothing
at the mouth waiting for this game for seven months.
I think Kenneth Walker is a massive, massive upgrade for
Kansas City, and I think that Bo Nix in that
(43:57):
environment Monday night football, fresh off his first game back
since ankle surgery. I think that Broncos, even against this young,
new Chiefs defense, that Broncos offense could struggle. I watched
this Broncos team go to Arrowhead on Christmas against the
Chiefs third stringers and Crystal Leducan, and that game's tied
(44:20):
with two minutes left. I'll lay the two and a
half with Patrick in Kansas City. That is my final pick.
So to Monzi, my five picks are for week one
of the season. New Orleans getting seven and a half
in Detroit. Tampa getting three and a half in Cincy.
Houston getting one and a half at home against Buffalo.
(44:40):
Philly laying five and a half at home against Washington.
And Kansas City laying two and a half at home
against Denver. We will talk touchdowns and teasers in a moment.
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(45:30):
All right. I am looking at, they have thrown in
there some potential touchdown genie options.
Speaker 2 (45:41):
Eric Henry, I feel like you got to get a
lower percentage for that.
Speaker 1 (45:45):
Yeah, I mean, you don't want to lay, he's at 66%
to score one. So that's the equivalent of essentially minus 200.
You don't love that. Travis Hunter's at 10% to score.
You need way better than that. Like the, I almost,
here is, oh, you know what's fun? This is one
of the fun things about Polymarket. We can bet no
(46:08):
on some of these. You can just go the opposite.
Speaker 2 (46:11):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (46:12):
So, listen, I am going to spend more time looking
at the touchdown numbers markets on Polymarket later in the season.
We're not going to do a touchdown genie this week,
but we might go anti-touchdown genie. We might on some
of these just go no. Like the and see how
(46:32):
we do on that. Now you're going to be laying
real money, but that's how I would do it.
Speaker 2 (46:37):
All right, come on. Put the genie back in the bottle.
I like that.
Speaker 1 (46:40):
We need to. Putting the genie back in the bottle.
Speaker 2 (46:44):
What a great line.
Speaker 1 (46:46):
That's exactly right. All right. I'm deeply invested, and you
are doing a three-team, eight-point, on Polymarket they call it combo. Historically,
we've called this your teaser. Tell me your three teams,
your eight points. The same rules apply to combos as
(47:09):
to teasers for me. Let's see how I grade it.
Let's see what you got.
Speaker 2 (47:14):
So we're going to go Detroit, get them up to
plus one and a half, and then Green Bay. Don't
love Jacobs and Micah being out, but plus ten and
a half, it's the Vikings. I feel like they're in
a fair spot. And then lastly, we've got the Broncos
against your Chiefs at ten and a half, plus ten
and a half.
Speaker 1 (47:36):
I mean, listen, Green Bay and Denver are great legs.
Taking teams from plus two and a half To plus
ten and a half is fine. Going through the zero,
it's just such a bad way to start off the year.
Speaker 2 (47:52):
Not far away.
Speaker 1 (47:53):
You could have just taken Jacksonville down to a pick. No.
Speaker 2 (47:58):
I get it. Who does Jacksonville have? Cleveland. They have Cleveland. Okay.
Speaker 1 (48:04):
No, I'm not swaying you. You got your thing.
Speaker 2 (48:07):
No, it's the Saints. I'm totally comfortable. Plus one and
a half, Detroit. Lock it in. Lock it in. Follow
me on.
Speaker 1 (48:13):
Detroit plus one and a half. Green Bay plus ten
and a half. Denver plus ten and a half. You're
laying a little juice because it's an eight-pointer, and I'm
here to tell you I'm giving you a C. I
wish I could give you a better grade, but you're
going through your first pick, first thing on my screen.
You're going through zero. I don't love it. All right,
make me my offer before we go.
Speaker 2 (48:32):
The offer is back. So the Panthers, they made the
mistake of trading away the pick that became Caleb Williams.
And now he's come back for revenge. So this week,
we're comboing Caleb three-plus passing touchdowns and 300-plus pass yards.
That is at 8%. That's at 8%, so it's 12.5
to 1.
Speaker 3 (48:49):
8%.
Speaker 2 (48:49):
Big game.
Speaker 1 (48:50):
This one in 12 times. You know what? If we
can get that at 8%, 12.5 to 1, I'll take it.
(49:14):
I don't mind that. There's a monster. Do I think
that Ben Johnson, you know, who's probably... proud of himself
at all times, there's a world where he just tries
to run up the score and Caleb cooks. Does that
happen more than one in 12 times this game is played?
I say yes. So Caleb- Drake May has the worst
(49:34):
regular season game of his career. Caleb has the best.
We revisit that quarterback draft discussion. I'll take it. Start
there off by taking the offer.
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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