Nick Wright shares his predictions for Week 1 of the NFL season including Patrick Mahomes' return in the Kansas City Chiefs' Monday Night Football matchup with Bo Nix's Denver Broncos, Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills battling CJ Stroud and the ferocious Houston Texans defense, Lamar Jackson's Baltimore Ravens taking on Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts, and much more from around the league! #Volume
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Welcome in Watch, Write, and Think Right episode 501. This
episode of Watch, Write, and Think Right is presented to
you by Boost Mobile. On a request for you guys
to subscribe to the show on YouTube, Spotify, and iTunes.
It helps us a lot. It's, you know, many people
say this is, you know, this is the legacy. I'm
leaving to DeMonte Dior, Indiana. I own the business. So, like,
(00:25):
you guys subscribing is, you know, helping. You know, it's really,
it's the inheritance that I'm leaving to the kids. How
are you, pal? How are you doing?
Speaker 2 (00:34):
I'm doing amazing this morning. How are you doing, pops?
Week one is here.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
This is the, week one is here. This is the
first of your 20 favorite shows that we do. Your
favorite shows are our 20 Friday in the NFL season
pick shows. Uh, we have a new sponsor that is
brought to you by poly market, but that doesn't poly market, uh,
(00:59):
you know, allows you to pick these games, you know,
with a point spread the way that we always do. Uh,
and so none of that will change. We will get
to the poly market piece of it in a moment,
but what we are trying to do as always is
be better than 53% picking these games against the spread.
(01:21):
That's what we're trying to do. Whatever you want to
call them, picks, predictions, anything, it doesn't matter to us.
The goal remains the same. It's professional football. They set
a point spread. You pick a side. You want to
be on the right side. What we do every year
on this is we go through the entire slate. We
(01:44):
used to separate them into categories of, like, be careful.
They're trying to trick you.
Speaker 2 (01:50):
Stay away.
Speaker 1 (01:51):
We have, we've simplified it. There are five games we
are picking. Every other game we are staying away from. However,
I will, if I have a significant lean on a game,
tell you which, well, for all of the games, I'd
tell you if I had to pick every game of
the weekend, which again, reminder folks out there, you don't
(02:15):
have to pick every game. You don't have to We
do five official picks a week. You don't even have
to do five. You listen to the show. Some weeks
you might be like, you know what? Checking out, I'm
on Polymarket. There's only one game I like. That's fine.
Some weeks you might be like, I'm staying away from
all of it. Again, we are not in, this is
(02:40):
not a financial planning show. This isn't a, let's add
to the Christmas budget show. With that said, We are
trying to win. We are trying to be right more
often than we are wrong for, if for no other
reason than the pride of it, to go along with
the potential financial benefits. Now that everyone's understood, and I am,
(03:04):
you know, very transparent about this stuff, because I've been
picking NFL games and putting money on NFL games for,
I'm 41, Demondze. I have been doing this for, wow.
25 years. 25 years is correct. Since we've been doing
(03:26):
the pod, I had one truly outstanding year where I
was one of the best against the spread pickers in
the country. That actually is the reason I was so
lucky to strike up a friendship with the legendary arguably
(03:49):
the goat of poker, the late great Doyle Brunson was
because Doyle would, I was very, very hot that year.
Colin was very hot that year. And Doyle had a
bit of a system where if my picks and Colin's
picks aligned, he went with it. So that was, and
(04:15):
so he and I, He and I became friends. I
was able actually to watch. I watched the Bengals beat
the Chiefs in the regular season of 2022 from Doyle's
house about five months before he passed away. And so,
(04:36):
you know, sorry, there's a little sidebar piece. But so
we've had a couple, we've had one great year. We've
had three B minus to B years, and we've had
one D plus year. Last year was a B minus year.
(05:00):
The year before, I think, was the D plus year.
The year before that was a B plus, and the
year before that was the A triple plus year. We
are shooting for, if I'm putting it on a grade scale,
I would be happy with somewhere. I'd be happy this
(05:22):
year with a 3.6 GPA. A solid A-. Solid A-
is what we're shooting for. I'm not getting greedy. Just
a solid A-. Same process.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
As last year? Same process as last year.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
Well, you do a little self-scout. You do a little,
you know, what went right, what went wrong. Remember the
rules of early in the season. Remember that week one
can be a liar. Try to be fluid. So I,
you know what, I'm going to give you guys another
little thing before we get to the picks. Another poker player.
(06:01):
In my opinion, the greatest living all around poker player
in the world right now. And my dear friend, Nick Shulman.
Nick Schulman, can you guys hear those people yelling outside
the window? I don't know if you guys can hear it.
Speaker 2 (06:15):
Playing with the Lions.
Speaker 1 (06:17):
Yeah, we have a nice little thing out front of
the house that little kids like, and I think they're
playing with it. So we might pause for a moment.
So as you guys know, these Friday shows are taped,
and it was lucky today because we just had to
have like a five-minute break. because there were little kids
playing right outside my window, and you could hear them
on the pod briefly. So that is fixed.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
We are back live.
Speaker 1 (06:40):
Yeah. So what I was saying is, just real quick
on the picks and strategy, because you're asking about self-scout.
I referenced Nick Schulman. Nick Schulman, in trying to help
me become a better poker player, he tried to explain
the Monty Hall phenomenon, which... I'm not going to get
(07:03):
into in full here, but I will give you the
very brief anecdote of it. Because it is a logical
puzzle that super smart people get wrong. And if we
had more time and this was a nerdier show and
I had a whiteboard, I could graph it out for you.
But the Monty Hall problem is as follows. There are
(07:26):
three doors here. Door one, door two, door three. One
of the doors has $ 10, 000 behind it. The other two
doors have nothing behind it. You pick one at random.
So say you pick door one. Monty Hall then says, okay,
and I am revealing to you that behind door two,
(07:48):
there is nothing. So now it is down between door
one that you picked initially and door three. And then
Monty Hall gives you the opportunity to switch doors. And
the question is, do you raise your likelihood of winning
by switching? And the thing that really is hard for
people to understand, and there will be people who argue
(08:11):
about this in the comments, but it is 100% mathematically accurate.
You should switch every time. For again, if I had
the whiteboard, I could explain it. The reasoning is, It
sounds like, well, what do you mean? You're just picking
at random. What is true is when you initially have
(08:31):
the choice, you have a one in three chance of
being correct. When he gives you the choice again, when
you switch, it becomes a one in two chance. Again,
I know there are right now a lot of people
that think they're very smart who are hearing this and saying, Nick,
you're wrong. I'm here to tell you, I'm not saying
(08:54):
you're not very smart, and I know that intuitively it
seems like how on earth could that raise your likelihood?
It 100% does, and if you want more research on it,
Google the Monty Hall problem, and it will explain it
to you in full. Here's the reason I bring that up.
Nick told me that as a way to remind myself
(09:15):
while I'm playing poker that while the cards will never
change my strategy within a hand can. I am allowed
at any point in a hand to be like, I
was going to do this, but I now am changing course.
(09:36):
How does that apply here? What I have done historically
in the past is been so anchored to my preseason
beliefs on teams or lack of beliefs on teams that
even when they are giving me evidence throughout the year,
I might have been wrong. I don't change course. So
(09:59):
that is something I am trying to learn from and
do better at this year. We will see how I do.
That is now as long of a preamble as you're
ever going to get in our pick shows. Week one,
games we are not picking, but we will discuss briefly. Demondze,
give me the first one.
Speaker 2 (10:18):
This first one, I don't know why you're staying away.
You got Baltimore and Indianapolis. That's plus three and a half.
Speaker 1 (10:25):
Listen, I know what you're saying. You want me to
just lay the wood with Baltimore.
Speaker 2 (10:30):
Yeah, 100%.
Speaker 1 (10:31):
The reason I am not. First game with a new
head coach. First game, pardon me, with a new offensive coordinator.
I have no idea how Daniel Jones is going to look.
that is, you know, at least somewhat concerning. There is
also the Ravens slow start trend worries me a bit.
(10:57):
Last year, week one, they find a way to lose
to Buffalo, like invent a way. Remember that? They're up
huge late. Derrick Henry fumbles, other guys fumble. The previous year,
they lose to Kansas City and to Las Vegas the
first two years of the season. It 2023, when they
(11:18):
were a dominant team all year long, one of their
only losses and far and away their dumbest loss, an
overtime week three loss to the Colts. The year before that, 2022,
week two, a loss to Miami. The year before that, 2021,
overtime loss to the Raiders in week one.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
All of that.
Speaker 1 (11:46):
Screams to me, man, I may be the sharp side
is the Colts plus the points, but I can't in
good conscience pick Daniel Jones sight unseen post Achilles. So
I am staying away from Baltimore at Indianapolis. I hope
that makes sense.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Yeah, no, it makes sense. A lot of new stuff.
A lot of new stuff. First game of the season.
That's fair.
Speaker 3 (12:10):
Yes.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
All right. Next one. Cleveland at Jacksonville. It's a Jacksonville
minus eight and a half.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
Week one favorites of more than a touchdown are killers.
I think the better way to look at it is
week one underdogs of more than a touchdown are like 65%
the last decade. Like it's almost an auto fire spot
picking the underdog if you're getting more than a touchdown
(12:40):
on week one.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
I like Cleveland to cover here. I.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
I under it's the sharp side. I'm sure it's the
sharp side. I am not. Picking using as one of
my five picks of Deshaun Watson led Cleveland offense.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
I'm just not.
Speaker 1 (13:00):
And, you know, I have my own priors that I
think Jacksonville is a little underrated, but I'm not laying.
I'm not laying a huge number in week one and
I'm not. And I'm just not going to back a
Cleveland offense that could be the worst in the league
to start the season.
Speaker 2 (13:18):
Next. Jets at Titans. Titans are minus one and a half.
Speaker 1 (13:23):
I thought long and hard about the Jets here because
two bad teams, you know, take the points. But this
is another good example of you don't have to pick
every game I don't trust Aaron Glenn at all. Gino,
who I've liked, was so bad last year that am
(13:48):
I just going to trust a coach who I don't
think is good, a quarterback who's coming off an awful
year on the road, and I'm not even getting a
full field goal? With that said, the idea of laying
points with Cam Ward and the Tennessee Titans seems just
should be almost illegal. Um, so I am, so that.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
Is when the quarterback tells the fans, why don't you
come out here and do it?
Speaker 1 (14:14):
It's not great in Tennessee right now. So that is
a stay away. That is a total stay away.
Speaker 2 (14:19):
Uh, next we got Atlanta at Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh's minus three
and a half.
Speaker 1 (14:24):
My lean would be Atlanta getting the points because I
think Pittsburgh's not a good team and they're laying more
than a field goal. With that said, Pittsburgh almost assuredly,
I think, will be at their best this early in
the year. Before it gets too cold, when Aaron Rodgers
is fully healthy. And the other piece of it is,
(14:50):
I think the smarter side is Atlanta plus the points.
But again, I think the best quarterback on the Falcons
isn't playing. And I don't know if you saw this
in the pregame yesterday. Florio floated that if Tua doesn't
play well, not that he could be benched, but that
he could be cut. The guy they named their starting quarterback,
(15:11):
Florio's reporting, could get cut. So that then says, just
take Pittsburgh. But again, Rodgers is 42 years old. I'm
laying more than a field goal. I'm just staying away
from it. Do you have something? Any of these games, Damanze,
you can chime in on whatever you want.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
Yeah, no, I've got not too much sweat there. I
could see that game going either way. Chicago at Carolina.
Carolina's three and a half point dogs.
Speaker 1 (15:37):
Every square in America is going to be on the Bears.
Like every single. This will be the most popular bet
of the week. A road dog laying more than a
field goal. And the only reason I'm not going to
be one of them is because I know it's the
square side. I think Chicago's going to be good. I
(16:05):
think Carolina's going to be bad. I love Chicago's coach.
I'm not that high on Carolina's coach. I love Chicago's quarterback.
I don't believe in Carolina's quarterback. All of these things
scream Bears by margin. But it will be. When you
are on Sunday morning, if you're on Twitter, all the
(16:28):
folks from Vegas will be sending out tweets saying 92%
of the money and 94% of the picks on Bears,
Panthers is on the Bears. I'm not going to be
a part of that. But I also can't. I don't
have the courage. The reason I'm not a true sharp
is a true sharp would just be like, oh, okay,
all the squares on that side, then I guess I'm
on the other side. I don't have the courage for that.
(16:48):
I'm staying away.
Speaker 2 (16:49):
Something's off. Green Bay at Minnesota. Minnesota is favored by
two and a half. This one is confusing. I just
didn't understand. I mean, how is Minnesota favored here? I
get it's divisional. It's week one. They're in Minnesota. I
guess all those three reasons are the reason that they're favored,
but it does not make sense to me.
Speaker 1 (17:13):
I'm going to add one other reason, because I think
Green Bay is better than them. Oh, yeah, Josh.
Speaker 2 (17:17):
Jacobs and freaking Michael Parsons aren't playing.
Speaker 1 (17:23):
Green Bay has not won a game without Micah Parsons.
He got hurt last year. They were 9-3-1 in the
game he got hurt. They lost every game the rest
of the way. They lost that game, the three games
that followed, then the playoff game. That's a concern. No
Josh Jacobs, that's a concern. Kyler, early in the year...
(17:46):
is an intriguing player. It's the problem that we haven't
seen him be able to get past around 12 games
of high-level play. Divisional game, I think the line's right,
probably given no Jacobs, no McCarthy. I'm sorry, no Jacobs,
no Micah. So I'm just staying away from this game.
(18:06):
I don't know if they're going to be a part
of it, Demanze. I do like the idea of Green
Bay being in one of your potential teasers, combos, like
adding some points for Green Bay.
Speaker 2 (18:21):
We got Miami at Vegas, Vegas three and a half
point favorites.
Speaker 1 (18:31):
So this one, this was my sixth one. If I
was going to have six, it would have been, I
almost had Miami plus three and a half in my picks.
I just don't know why the Raiders get to be
three and a half point favorites on anybody. Especially no
(18:51):
Brock Bowers. Conversely, the overall talent on Miami's roster right
now is so minimal. So minimal that I didn't feel
like I had to do it. And this, again, why
(19:14):
I'm not a sharp. Like, I think clearly Miami's the
right side. But here's the, you know what the tiebreaker
was for me?
Speaker 2 (19:22):
Tweet one of the NFL.
Speaker 1 (19:24):
I don't want to watch a second of this. I
don't want to care about it. I don't want to
have any reason where I have, like, some other game
that I'm like, oh, I'm going to take off the
quad box and put this on. Listen, I have the
ability to watch seven games at once. But this is,
you know, Sunday, week one. There's, you know, now that's
actually a four o'clock game because it's in Vegas. So
(19:46):
I guess that's not even an excuse. I'm going to
be watching that game. to somewhat because there's not, but
I'm just not interested. Just flatly not interested. But Miami
is the right side. Miami is clearly the right side. Next.
Speaker 2 (20:02):
We got Cardinals at Chargers. Chargers are nine and a
half point favorites.
Speaker 1 (20:06):
So everything I said before about Cleveland Jacksonville applies here
as far as the right, you know, the laying more
than seven and week one is crazy. Um, but this
also feels like the type of game again, wait, Justin
Herbert's like, wait, it's the regular season. It's early. It's
(20:29):
I'm playing one of the worst teams in the league.
This feels like maybe a 30 point Mike McDaniel offensive explosion. Um,
But I'm not laying nine and a half points in
week one. But I actually think the Chargers probably are
the right side, but I'm staying away from it. And
now the last one we're not doing, Sunday Night Football.
Speaker 2 (20:50):
Oh, we got Cowboys at the Giants. The Giants are
two and a half point dogs.
Speaker 1 (20:54):
Cowboys were going to be one of my picks. Road
divisional favorite was going to be one of my picks
because I think the Giants are way... There's too much...
Hype's not the right word, but smoke on the Giants
right now. The Cowboys losing arguably their best offensive lineman,
(21:15):
their left tackle to wrist surgery for four to six
weeks out of nowhere. Um, gosh darn it. His name's
all of a sudden escaping me. The, their left guard
who just went on the injured Tyler Smith. Thank you. Um,
was enough to keep me away from the game. Because
(21:37):
what the Giants should have, they were supposed to have
it last year and they didn't, but what they should
have is, at the very least, a great defensive line
and pass rush. So because of that, plus the late injury,
it was enough to make me stay away from a
game that a road divisional favorite, to begin with, is
not usually the best idea. but the Cowboys injury was
(22:01):
enough for me, so I'm staying away from it. Without
the Tyler Smith injury, the Cowboys would have been one
of my picks. All right, my five picks in just
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(23:43):
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Speaker 1 (23:44):
All right, Demanze, let's get right to it. My picks...
For week one, first pick of the season.
Speaker 2 (23:52):
First pick of the season, we're going with New Orleans.
Plus seven and a half at Detroit.
Speaker 1 (23:59):
So, listen. My feeling on Detroit is very simple. I
think certainly the first month of the season, maybe the
whole season, but certainly the first month of the season,
you're going to be able to throw on them. They
still have not found a reliable pass rusher opposite Aiden
Hutchinson or Both of their safeties, Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph,
(24:21):
are out injured. Obviously, they had to cut their best corner,
Terry and Arnold. So if I think, and I'm not
low on Tyler Shuck, I'm not high on Tyler Shuck.
But what I will tell you is, I think the
Saints are going to air it out. And so, this
feels to me like a game, because I'm getting seven
(24:41):
and the hook. Now, you know, there's... you're paying a
little bit of an extra price on that, but that is,
you know, you can with that polymark, you get it
very easily. New Orleans plus seven and a half. I,
I think there's backdoor cover potential. I think there is
sneaky upset potential, but not really. But I think there's
(25:04):
a lot of worlds where Detroit is up 10, 13,
14 in this game and, Detroit is up that and
New Orleans ends up losing by seven, losing potentially by three.
So it's too many points. I talked to you guys
about week one favorites of more than a touchdown. I
think Detroit's past defense is super susceptible. We talked to
(25:29):
Cam Jordan on the show. If the Saints D-line is
as good as he thinks it can be, obviously he's
biased and he's dealing with a hamstring injury. I think
you can get pressure to Jared Goff up the middle.
Shuck was 7-2 against the spread last year as a
starter with the Saints. Now, Dan Campbell and Jared Goff
(25:49):
have been nails in September, so that's not good. But
New Orleans plus 7.5, first pick of the year.
Speaker 2 (25:57):
Solid. Well said. Tampa Bay plus 3.5 at Cincinnati.
Speaker 1 (26:03):
Yeah, I mean, this is my favorite pick. Cincinnati, every year,
starts slow. Week one of Burrow, they start 0-2. Year
one of Burrow, they start 0-2. Year two of Joe Burrow,
(26:24):
they win in week one in overtime, lose in week two.
Week three of Joe Burrow, they start, week three, sorry,
year three Joe Burrow, they start 0-2. Year four, Joe Burrow.
They start 0-2. Year five, Joe Burrow. They start 0-2.
Speaker 2 (26:49):
0-3, actually.
Speaker 1 (26:51):
Year six, Joe Burrow. They start 2-0. Week one is
one of the worst wins anyone had in the NFL
all year. A 17-16 last second victory over Joe Flacco
and the Cleveland Browns. So even last year, when they
(27:12):
made such a big deal that they were going to
start slow or start fast, Joe Burrow threw for 113
yards that game. They are laying more than a field
goal Against, my God, a team that's due. The Bucs
didn't cover nine in a row to end last year.
Baker got the new contract. I think Tampa Bay goes
(27:34):
to Cincinnati and wins outright. At the very least, I
don't think Cincinnati's beating them by margin. Tampa Bay plus
three and a half is the obvious one. At least
for me, that's the pick. So I like Tampa plus
three and a half.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
For your third pick, you got Houston plus one and
a half against Buffalo.
Speaker 1 (27:55):
Houston getting a point and a half at home when
what Houston's defense has done to Josh Allen the last
two times they have played him. Josh Allen. Well, Josh
Allen last year in Houston, zero touchdowns, two picks, turns
(28:18):
it over. in the red zone at the end of
that game, they lose. Josh Allen the year before, the
worst game of his career, 9 of 30. He was
9 of 30 for 130 yards against that D'Amico-Ryan defense. Now,
(28:39):
I think he's lost to him a couple other times.
That was before D'Amico got there. The point and a
half is valuable there. There are game scripts where Buffalo
wins and I'm still on the right side, 21-20. That's
me being on the right side of it. It's a
(29:00):
rare score, but 17-16. Buffalo holds Houston to three field
goals and one touchdown. Buffalo ends up with 17. I
understand the feeling squeamish about how C.J. Stroud looked in
the postseason. But this is Houston at home. This is
(29:23):
that D'Amico Ryan's defense fully healthy and a Buffalo team
with the first game of a rookie head coach. I'm
getting a point and a half with a team that
I think is just as good as Buffalo and they're
the home team. I'll take Houston plus the point and
a half.
Speaker 2 (29:38):
Not worried about Stroud. Not worried about Josh Allen either.
Speaker 1 (29:43):
Listen, I think Josh Allen's awesome. This is one team
that is really D'Amico Ryan Stevens has befuddled him. And
I just, of course, I'm worried about Stroud, but I
don't think the Bills have a great pass defense this year.
We'll see how it looks. I just, I think Houston
and Buffalo are equal teams. Houston's at home and they're
(30:06):
getting points. It's not a lot of points, but they're
getting points. I'll take Houston plus a point and a
half in a game that I actually think it should
be flipped. I think it should be Houston minus one
and a half. It's Houston plus a point and a half.
All right. So I've gone so far with three dogs.
We've got our first favorite.
Speaker 2 (30:26):
And it's Philly. Minus five and a half versus Washington.
Speaker 1 (30:29):
All right, listen. Last few years, Philly has been a
covering machine early in the season. Washington has struggled early
in the season under Dan Quinn. But most notably, the
reason this is, this is, now again, I didn't tell
you that whole Monty Hall story. and then be like,
(30:50):
but before the year, this is how I felt. But
we are still before the year. So how I feel
about teams going into a year, that's all I can
base it on right now. I think Philly is going
to be excellent defensively.
Speaker 2 (31:02):
Excellent.
Speaker 1 (31:03):
I think Washington is going to struggle mightily. I think
Philly might have the best D-line outside of the Rams
in the whole NFL. Washington might have the worst offensive
line situation in their whole conference. I think this is
a game Jalen Carter can wreck on his own. I
(31:23):
am laying less than a touchdown with a team that
I feel is a real Super Bowl contender against a
team that I feel like is, you know, likely to
be picking in the top 10. I think this is
simply an offensive line, defensive line mismatch. Philadelphia. laying five
(31:45):
and a half. Also a little bit of a Jalen
Hurts chip on his shoulder. First game, no A.J. Brown.
Saquon Barkley, oh, don't forget about me. You know, Jameer Gibbs, B.
John Robinson, everybody. Philly, laying five and a half at
home against Washington is my final pick.
Speaker 2 (32:04):
Devontae Smith's first year as a wide receiver won, right?
Speaker 1 (32:06):
Yeah, number one. First year since he won the Heisman
at Alabama.
Speaker 2 (32:10):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (32:10):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (32:11):
I was surprised to not see this one in your
stay aways considering Tuesday's pod. But lastly, you've got Kansas
City minus two and a half against Denver.
Speaker 1 (32:21):
Listen, I don't love what's happening at left tackle for
the Chiefs. But ultimately, Patrick Mahomes, as a favorite of
less than three or as an underdog, is 30-13-1. I
(32:44):
don't think the Chiefs and Broncos are dead even teams.
I think the Chiefs are a cut above last year notwithstanding.
We'll see if I'm correct. This game's in Kansas City.
They're only two and a half point favorites. That means
what they're telling us is they think the Chiefs and
Broncos are dead even teams. I do not. I think
(33:05):
the Broncos are really going to miss... Jonathan Franklin Myers,
who they lost in free agency, and Jonathan Cooper, they
lost the commissioner's exempt list. I think Patrick has been
frothing at the mouth waiting for this game for seven months.
I think Kenneth Walker is a massive, massive upgrade for
Kansas City, and I think that Bo Nix, in that environment,
(33:29):
Monday night football, fresh off his first game back since
ankle surgery, I think that Bronco, even against this young,
new Chiefs defense, that Broncos offense could struggle. I watched
this Broncos team go to Arrowhead on Christmas against the
Chiefs third stringers and Chris Oladukun, and that game's tied
(33:50):
with two minutes left. I'll lay the two and a
half with Patrick in Kansas City. That is my final pick.
So to Monzi, my five picks are, for week one
of the season, New Orleans getting seven and a half
in Detroit, Tampa getting three and a half in Cincy,
Houston getting one and a half, At home against Buffalo.
(34:10):
Philly laying 5.5 at home against Washington. And Kansas City
laying 2.5 at home against Denver. We will talk touchdowns
and teasers in a moment. But first, Boost Mobile is
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(34:57):
visit BoostMobile.com. All right. I am looking at, They have
thrown in there some potential touchdown genie options.
Speaker 2 (35:11):
Eric Henry, I feel like you got to get a
lower percentage for that.
Speaker 1 (35:15):
Yeah, I mean, you don't want to lay, he's at 66%
to score one. So that's the equivalent of essentially minus 200.
You don't love that. Travis Hunter's at 10% to score.
You need way better than that. Like the, I almost,
here is, oh, you know what's fun? This is one
of the fun things about Polymarket. We can bet no
(35:38):
on some of these. You can just go the opposite.
Speaker 2 (35:42):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (35:42):
So, listen, I am going to spend more time looking
at the touchdown markets on Polymarket later in the season.
We're not going to do a touchdown genie this week,
but we might go anti-touchdown genie. We might on some
of these just go no. Like the... And see how
(36:02):
we do on that. Now, you're going to be laying
real money, but that's how I.
Speaker 2 (36:07):
Would do it. All right, come on, Zay. Putting the
genie back in the bottle. I like that.
Speaker 1 (36:10):
We need to. Putting the genie back in the bottle.
What a great line. That's exactly right. All right. I'm
deeply invested. And you are doing a three-team, eight-point, on
Polymarket they call it combo.
Speaker 3 (36:29):
Combo.
Speaker 1 (36:30):
Historically we've called this your teaser. Tell me your three teams,
your eight points. The same rules apply to combos as
to teasers for me. Let's see how I grade it.
Let's see what you got.
Speaker 2 (36:44):
So we're going to go Detroit, get them up to
plus one and a half, and then Green Bay. Oh,
my God. Don't love Jacobs and Micah being out, but
plus 10.5, it's the Vikings. I feel like they're in
a fair spot. And then lastly, we've got the Broncos
against your Chiefs at 10.5, plus 10.5.
Speaker 1 (37:06):
I mean, listen, Green Bay and Denver are great legs.
Taking teams from plus 2.5 to plus.
Speaker 2 (37:11):
10.5 is fine.
Speaker 1 (37:17):
Going through the zero, it's just such a bad way
to start off the year. You could have just taken
Jacksonville down to a pick.
Speaker 2 (37:27):
No, I get it. Who does Jacksonville have? They have Cleveland.
They have Cleveland, okay.
Speaker 1 (37:34):
But it's, no, I'm not swaying you.
Speaker 2 (37:36):
You got your thing. No, it's the Saints. I'm totally comfortable.
Plus one and a half, Detroit. Lock it in. Lock
it in. Follow me on.
Speaker 1 (37:43):
Detroit plus one and a half. Green Bay plus ten
and a half. Denver plus ten and a half. You're
laying a little juice because it's an eight-pointer, and I'm
here to tell you I'm giving you a C.
Speaker 2 (37:52):
I wish I could give you.
Speaker 1 (37:53):
A better grade, but you're going through your first pick,
first thing on my screen. You're going through zero. I
don't love it. All right, make me my offer before
we go.
Speaker 2 (38:02):
The offer is back. So the Panthers, they made the
mistake of trading away the pick that became Caleb Williams.
And now he's come back for revenge. So this week,
we're comboing Caleb three-plus passing touchdowns and 300-plus pass yards.
That is at 8%. That's at 8%, so.
Speaker 1 (38:19):
It's 12.5 to 1.
Speaker 3 (38:20):
8%.
Speaker 2 (38:20):
Big game.
Speaker 1 (38:20):
This one in 12 times.
Speaker 2 (38:21):
You know what?
Speaker 1 (38:39):
If we can get that at 8%, 12.5 to 1,
I'll take it. I don't mind that. There's a monster.
Do I think that Ben Johnson, you know, who's pretty
proud of himself at all times, there's a world where
he just tries to run up the score and Caleb cooks?
Does that happen more than 1 in 12 times this
game is played? I say yes. So, Caleb, Drake May
(39:04):
has the worst regular season game of his career. Caleb
has the best. We revisit that quarterback draft discussion. I'll
take it. Start there off by taking the offer. All right.
We're back, boys. Week one, NFL pick show. Shout out
to Boost Mobile. Shout out to Polymarket. Demondsey's got to
get off to work. I got to get to work.
(39:25):
Enjoy this weekend. Talk to you guys soon. Thank you
to Blue Duck. Thank you to Volume. What's right?
Welcome in Watch, Write, and Think Right episode 501. This
episode of Watch, Write, and Think Right is presented to
you by Boost Mobile. On a request for you guys
to subscribe to the show on YouTube, Spotify, and iTunes.
It helps us a lot. It's, you know, many people
say this is, you know, this is the legacy. I'm
leaving to DeMonte Dior, Indiana. I own the business. So, like,
(00:25):
you guys subscribing is, you know, helping. You know, it's really,
it's the inheritance that I'm leaving to the kids. How
are you, pal? How are you doing?
Speaker 2 (00:34):
I'm doing amazing this morning. How are you doing, pops?
Week one is here.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
This is the, week one is here. This is the
first of your 20 favorite shows that we do. Your
favorite shows are our 20 Friday in the NFL season
pick shows. Uh, we have a new sponsor that is
brought to you by poly market, but that doesn't poly market, uh,
(00:59):
you know, allows you to pick these games, you know,
with a point spread the way that we always do. Uh,
and so none of that will change. We will get
to the poly market piece of it in a moment,
but what we are trying to do as always is
be better than 53% picking these games against the spread.
(01:21):
That's what we're trying to do. Whatever you want to
call them, picks, predictions, anything, it doesn't matter to us.
The goal remains the same. It's professional football. They set
a point spread. You pick a side. You want to
be on the right side. What we do every year
on this is we go through the entire slate. We
(01:44):
used to separate them into categories of, like, be careful.
They're trying to trick you.
Speaker 2 (01:50):
Stay away.
Speaker 1 (01:51):
We have, we've simplified it. There are five games we
are picking. Every other game we are staying away from. However,
I will, if I have a significant lean on a game,
tell you which, well, for all of the games, I'd
tell you if I had to pick every game of
the weekend, which again, reminder folks out there, you don't
(02:15):
have to pick every game. You don't have to We
do five official picks a week. You don't even have
to do five. You listen to the show. Some weeks
you might be like, you know what? Checking out, I'm
on Polymarket. There's only one game I like. That's fine.
Some weeks you might be like, I'm staying away from
all of it. Again, we are not in, this is
(02:40):
not a financial planning show. This isn't a, let's add
to the Christmas budget show. With that said, We are
trying to win. We are trying to be right more
often than we are wrong for, if for no other
reason than the pride of it, to go along with
the potential financial benefits. Now that everyone's understood, and I am,
(03:04):
you know, very transparent about this stuff, because I've been
picking NFL games and putting money on NFL games for,
I'm 41, Demondze. I have been doing this for, wow.
25 years. 25 years is correct. Since we've been doing
(03:26):
the pod, I had one truly outstanding year where I
was one of the best against the spread pickers in
the country. That actually is the reason I was so
lucky to strike up a friendship with the legendary arguably
(03:49):
the goat of poker, the late great Doyle Brunson was
because Doyle would, I was very, very hot that year.
Colin was very hot that year. And Doyle had a
bit of a system where if my picks and Colin's
picks aligned, he went with it. So that was, and
(04:15):
so he and I, He and I became friends. I
was able actually to watch. I watched the Bengals beat
the Chiefs in the regular season of 2022 from Doyle's
house about five months before he passed away. And so,
(04:36):
you know, sorry, there's a little sidebar piece. But so
we've had a couple, we've had one great year. We've
had three B minus to B years, and we've had
one D plus year. Last year was a B minus year.
(05:00):
The year before, I think, was the D plus year.
The year before that was a B plus, and the
year before that was the A triple plus year. We
are shooting for, if I'm putting it on a grade scale,
I would be happy with somewhere. I'd be happy this
(05:22):
year with a 3.6 GPA. A solid A-. Solid A-
is what we're shooting for. I'm not getting greedy. Just
a solid A-. Same process.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
As last year? Same process as last year.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
Well, you do a little self-scout. You do a little,
you know, what went right, what went wrong. Remember the
rules of early in the season. Remember that week one
can be a liar. Try to be fluid. So I,
you know what, I'm going to give you guys another
little thing before we get to the picks. Another poker player.
(06:01):
In my opinion, the greatest living all around poker player
in the world right now. And my dear friend, Nick Shulman.
Nick Schulman, can you guys hear those people yelling outside
the window? I don't know if you guys can hear it.
Speaker 2 (06:15):
Playing with the Lions.
Speaker 1 (06:17):
Yeah, we have a nice little thing out front of
the house that little kids like, and I think they're
playing with it. So we might pause for a moment.
So as you guys know, these Friday shows are taped,
and it was lucky today because we just had to
have like a five-minute break. because there were little kids
playing right outside my window, and you could hear them
on the pod briefly. So that is fixed.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
We are back live.
Speaker 1 (06:40):
Yeah. So what I was saying is, just real quick
on the picks and strategy, because you're asking about self-scout.
I referenced Nick Schulman. Nick Schulman, in trying to help
me become a better poker player, he tried to explain
the Monty Hall phenomenon, which... I'm not going to get
(07:03):
into in full here, but I will give you the
very brief anecdote of it. Because it is a logical
puzzle that super smart people get wrong. And if we
had more time and this was a nerdier show and
I had a whiteboard, I could graph it out for you.
But the Monty Hall problem is as follows. There are
(07:26):
three doors here. Door one, door two, door three. One
of the doors has $ 10, 000 behind it. The other two
doors have nothing behind it. You pick one at random.
So say you pick door one. Monty Hall then says, okay,
and I am revealing to you that behind door two,
(07:48):
there is nothing. So now it is down between door
one that you picked initially and door three. And then
Monty Hall gives you the opportunity to switch doors. And
the question is, do you raise your likelihood of winning
by switching? And the thing that really is hard for
people to understand, and there will be people who argue
(08:11):
about this in the comments, but it is 100% mathematically accurate.
You should switch every time. For again, if I had
the whiteboard, I could explain it. The reasoning is, It
sounds like, well, what do you mean? You're just picking
at random. What is true is when you initially have
(08:31):
the choice, you have a one in three chance of
being correct. When he gives you the choice again, when
you switch, it becomes a one in two chance. Again,
I know there are right now a lot of people
that think they're very smart who are hearing this and saying, Nick,
you're wrong. I'm here to tell you, I'm not saying
(08:54):
you're not very smart, and I know that intuitively it
seems like how on earth could that raise your likelihood?
It 100% does, and if you want more research on it,
Google the Monty Hall problem, and it will explain it
to you in full. Here's the reason I bring that up.
Nick told me that as a way to remind myself
(09:15):
while I'm playing poker that while the cards will never
change my strategy within a hand can. I am allowed
at any point in a hand to be like, I
was going to do this, but I now am changing course.
(09:36):
How does that apply here? What I have done historically
in the past is been so anchored to my preseason
beliefs on teams or lack of beliefs on teams that
even when they are giving me evidence throughout the year,
I might have been wrong. I don't change course. So
(09:59):
that is something I am trying to learn from and
do better at this year. We will see how I do.
That is now as long of a preamble as you're
ever going to get in our pick shows. Week one,
games we are not picking, but we will discuss briefly. Demondze,
give me the first one.
Speaker 2 (10:18):
This first one, I don't know why you're staying away.
You got Baltimore and Indianapolis. That's plus three and a half.
Speaker 1 (10:25):
Listen, I know what you're saying. You want me to
just lay the wood with Baltimore.
Speaker 2 (10:30):
Yeah, 100%.
Speaker 1 (10:31):
The reason I am not. First game with a new
head coach. First game, pardon me, with a new offensive coordinator.
I have no idea how Daniel Jones is going to look.
that is, you know, at least somewhat concerning. There is
also the Ravens slow start trend worries me a bit.
(10:57):
Last year, week one, they find a way to lose
to Buffalo, like invent a way. Remember that? They're up
huge late. Derrick Henry fumbles, other guys fumble. The previous year,
they lose to Kansas City and to Las Vegas the
first two years of the season. It 2023, when they
(11:18):
were a dominant team all year long, one of their
only losses and far and away their dumbest loss, an
overtime week three loss to the Colts. The year before that, 2022,
week two, a loss to Miami. The year before that, 2021,
overtime loss to the Raiders in week one.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
All of that.
Speaker 1 (11:46):
Screams to me, man, I may be the sharp side
is the Colts plus the points, but I can't in
good conscience pick Daniel Jones sight unseen post Achilles. So
I am staying away from Baltimore at Indianapolis. I hope
that makes sense.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Yeah, no, it makes sense. A lot of new stuff.
A lot of new stuff. First game of the season.
That's fair.
Speaker 3 (12:10):
Yes.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
All right. Next one. Cleveland at Jacksonville. It's a Jacksonville
minus eight and a half.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
Week one favorites of more than a touchdown are killers.
I think the better way to look at it is
week one underdogs of more than a touchdown are like 65%
the last decade. Like it's almost an auto fire spot
picking the underdog if you're getting more than a touchdown
(12:40):
on week one.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
I like Cleveland to cover here. I.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
I under it's the sharp side. I'm sure it's the
sharp side. I am not. Picking using as one of
my five picks of Deshaun Watson led Cleveland offense.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
I'm just not.
Speaker 1 (13:00):
And, you know, I have my own priors that I
think Jacksonville is a little underrated, but I'm not laying.
I'm not laying a huge number in week one and
I'm not. And I'm just not going to back a
Cleveland offense that could be the worst in the league
to start the season.
Speaker 2 (13:18):
Next. Jets at Titans. Titans are minus one and a half.
Speaker 1 (13:23):
I thought long and hard about the Jets here because
two bad teams, you know, take the points. But this
is another good example of you don't have to pick
every game I don't trust Aaron Glenn at all. Gino,
who I've liked, was so bad last year that am
(13:48):
I just going to trust a coach who I don't
think is good, a quarterback who's coming off an awful
year on the road, and I'm not even getting a
full field goal? With that said, the idea of laying
points with Cam Ward and the Tennessee Titans seems just
should be almost illegal. Um, so I am, so that.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
Is when the quarterback tells the fans, why don't you
come out here and do it?
Speaker 1 (14:14):
It's not great in Tennessee right now. So that is
a stay away. That is a total stay away.
Speaker 2 (14:19):
Uh, next we got Atlanta at Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh's minus three
and a half.
Speaker 1 (14:24):
My lean would be Atlanta getting the points because I
think Pittsburgh's not a good team and they're laying more
than a field goal. With that said, Pittsburgh almost assuredly,
I think, will be at their best this early in
the year. Before it gets too cold, when Aaron Rodgers
is fully healthy. And the other piece of it is,
(14:50):
I think the smarter side is Atlanta plus the points.
But again, I think the best quarterback on the Falcons
isn't playing. And I don't know if you saw this
in the pregame yesterday. Florio floated that if Tua doesn't
play well, not that he could be benched, but that
he could be cut. The guy they named their starting quarterback,
(15:11):
Florio's reporting, could get cut. So that then says, just
take Pittsburgh. But again, Rodgers is 42 years old. I'm
laying more than a field goal. I'm just staying away
from it. Do you have something? Any of these games, Damanze,
you can chime in on whatever you want.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
Yeah, no, I've got not too much sweat there. I
could see that game going either way. Chicago at Carolina.
Carolina's three and a half point dogs.
Speaker 1 (15:37):
Every square in America is going to be on the Bears.
Like every single. This will be the most popular bet
of the week. A road dog laying more than a
field goal. And the only reason I'm not going to
be one of them is because I know it's the
square side. I think Chicago's going to be good. I
(16:05):
think Carolina's going to be bad. I love Chicago's coach.
I'm not that high on Carolina's coach. I love Chicago's quarterback.
I don't believe in Carolina's quarterback. All of these things
scream Bears by margin. But it will be. When you
are on Sunday morning, if you're on Twitter, all the
(16:28):
folks from Vegas will be sending out tweets saying 92%
of the money and 94% of the picks on Bears,
Panthers is on the Bears. I'm not going to be
a part of that. But I also can't. I don't
have the courage. The reason I'm not a true sharp
is a true sharp would just be like, oh, okay,
all the squares on that side, then I guess I'm
on the other side. I don't have the courage for that.
(16:48):
I'm staying away.
Speaker 2 (16:49):
Something's off. Green Bay at Minnesota. Minnesota is favored by
two and a half. This one is confusing. I just
didn't understand. I mean, how is Minnesota favored here? I
get it's divisional. It's week one. They're in Minnesota. I
guess all those three reasons are the reason that they're favored,
but it does not make sense to me.
Speaker 1 (17:13):
I'm going to add one other reason, because I think
Green Bay is better than them. Oh, yeah, Josh.
Speaker 2 (17:17):
Jacobs and freaking Michael Parsons aren't playing.
Speaker 1 (17:23):
Green Bay has not won a game without Micah Parsons.
He got hurt last year. They were 9-3-1 in the
game he got hurt. They lost every game the rest
of the way. They lost that game, the three games
that followed, then the playoff game. That's a concern. No
Josh Jacobs, that's a concern. Kyler, early in the year...
(17:46):
is an intriguing player. It's the problem that we haven't
seen him be able to get past around 12 games
of high-level play. Divisional game, I think the line's right,
probably given no Jacobs, no McCarthy. I'm sorry, no Jacobs,
no Micah. So I'm just staying away from this game.
(18:06):
I don't know if they're going to be a part
of it, Demanze. I do like the idea of Green
Bay being in one of your potential teasers, combos, like
adding some points for Green Bay.
Speaker 2 (18:21):
We got Miami at Vegas, Vegas three and a half
point favorites.
Speaker 1 (18:31):
So this one, this was my sixth one. If I
was going to have six, it would have been, I
almost had Miami plus three and a half in my picks.
I just don't know why the Raiders get to be
three and a half point favorites on anybody. Especially no
(18:51):
Brock Bowers. Conversely, the overall talent on Miami's roster right
now is so minimal. So minimal that I didn't feel
like I had to do it. And this, again, why
(19:14):
I'm not a sharp. Like, I think clearly Miami's the
right side. But here's the, you know what the tiebreaker
was for me?
Speaker 2 (19:22):
Tweet one of the NFL.
Speaker 1 (19:24):
I don't want to watch a second of this. I
don't want to care about it. I don't want to
have any reason where I have, like, some other game
that I'm like, oh, I'm going to take off the
quad box and put this on. Listen, I have the
ability to watch seven games at once. But this is,
you know, Sunday, week one. There's, you know, now that's
actually a four o'clock game because it's in Vegas. So
(19:46):
I guess that's not even an excuse. I'm going to
be watching that game. to somewhat because there's not, but
I'm just not interested. Just flatly not interested. But Miami
is the right side. Miami is clearly the right side. Next.
Speaker 2 (20:02):
We got Cardinals at Chargers. Chargers are nine and a
half point favorites.
Speaker 1 (20:06):
So everything I said before about Cleveland Jacksonville applies here
as far as the right, you know, the laying more
than seven and week one is crazy. Um, but this
also feels like the type of game again, wait, Justin
Herbert's like, wait, it's the regular season. It's early. It's
(20:29):
I'm playing one of the worst teams in the league.
This feels like maybe a 30 point Mike McDaniel offensive explosion. Um,
But I'm not laying nine and a half points in
week one. But I actually think the Chargers probably are
the right side, but I'm staying away from it. And
now the last one we're not doing, Sunday Night Football.
Speaker 2 (20:50):
Oh, we got Cowboys at the Giants. The Giants are
two and a half point dogs.
Speaker 1 (20:54):
Cowboys were going to be one of my picks. Road
divisional favorite was going to be one of my picks
because I think the Giants are way... There's too much...
Hype's not the right word, but smoke on the Giants
right now. The Cowboys losing arguably their best offensive lineman,
(21:15):
their left tackle to wrist surgery for four to six
weeks out of nowhere. Um, gosh darn it. His name's
all of a sudden escaping me. The, their left guard
who just went on the injured Tyler Smith. Thank you. Um,
was enough to keep me away from the game. Because
(21:37):
what the Giants should have, they were supposed to have
it last year and they didn't, but what they should
have is, at the very least, a great defensive line
and pass rush. So because of that, plus the late injury,
it was enough to make me stay away from a
game that a road divisional favorite, to begin with, is
not usually the best idea. but the Cowboys injury was
(22:01):
enough for me, so I'm staying away from it. Without
the Tyler Smith injury, the Cowboys would have been one
of my picks. All right, my five picks in just
a moment, but first... Football is back. Time to level
up your approach to the NFL and college football this
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(22:22):
prediction market now available in all 50 states. I'm in
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Speaker 1 (23:44):
All right, Demanze, let's get right to it. My picks...
For week one, first pick of the season.
Speaker 2 (23:52):
First pick of the season, we're going with New Orleans.
Plus seven and a half at Detroit.
Speaker 1 (23:59):
So, listen. My feeling on Detroit is very simple. I
think certainly the first month of the season, maybe the
whole season, but certainly the first month of the season,
you're going to be able to throw on them. They
still have not found a reliable pass rusher opposite Aiden
Hutchinson or Both of their safeties, Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph,
(24:21):
are out injured. Obviously, they had to cut their best corner,
Terry and Arnold. So if I think, and I'm not
low on Tyler Shuck, I'm not high on Tyler Shuck.
But what I will tell you is, I think the
Saints are going to air it out. And so, this
feels to me like a game, because I'm getting seven
(24:41):
and the hook. Now, you know, there's... you're paying a
little bit of an extra price on that, but that is,
you know, you can with that polymark, you get it
very easily. New Orleans plus seven and a half. I,
I think there's backdoor cover potential. I think there is
sneaky upset potential, but not really. But I think there's
(25:04):
a lot of worlds where Detroit is up 10, 13,
14 in this game and, Detroit is up that and
New Orleans ends up losing by seven, losing potentially by three.
So it's too many points. I talked to you guys
about week one favorites of more than a touchdown. I
think Detroit's past defense is super susceptible. We talked to
(25:29):
Cam Jordan on the show. If the Saints D-line is
as good as he thinks it can be, obviously he's
biased and he's dealing with a hamstring injury. I think
you can get pressure to Jared Goff up the middle.
Shuck was 7-2 against the spread last year as a
starter with the Saints. Now, Dan Campbell and Jared Goff
(25:49):
have been nails in September, so that's not good. But
New Orleans plus 7.5, first pick of the year.
Speaker 2 (25:57):
Solid. Well said. Tampa Bay plus 3.5 at Cincinnati.
Speaker 1 (26:03):
Yeah, I mean, this is my favorite pick. Cincinnati, every year,
starts slow. Week one of Burrow, they start 0-2. Year
one of Burrow, they start 0-2. Year two of Joe Burrow,
(26:24):
they win in week one in overtime, lose in week two.
Week three of Joe Burrow, they start, week three, sorry,
year three Joe Burrow, they start 0-2. Year four, Joe Burrow.
They start 0-2. Year five, Joe Burrow. They start 0-2.
Speaker 2 (26:49):
0-3, actually.
Speaker 1 (26:51):
Year six, Joe Burrow. They start 2-0. Week one is
one of the worst wins anyone had in the NFL
all year. A 17-16 last second victory over Joe Flacco
and the Cleveland Browns. So even last year, when they
(27:12):
made such a big deal that they were going to
start slow or start fast, Joe Burrow threw for 113
yards that game. They are laying more than a field
goal Against, my God, a team that's due. The Bucs
didn't cover nine in a row to end last year.
Baker got the new contract. I think Tampa Bay goes
(27:34):
to Cincinnati and wins outright. At the very least, I
don't think Cincinnati's beating them by margin. Tampa Bay plus
three and a half is the obvious one. At least
for me, that's the pick. So I like Tampa plus
three and a half.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
For your third pick, you got Houston plus one and
a half against Buffalo.
Speaker 1 (27:55):
Houston getting a point and a half at home when
what Houston's defense has done to Josh Allen the last
two times they have played him. Josh Allen. Well, Josh
Allen last year in Houston, zero touchdowns, two picks, turns
(28:18):
it over. in the red zone at the end of
that game, they lose. Josh Allen the year before, the
worst game of his career, 9 of 30. He was
9 of 30 for 130 yards against that D'Amico-Ryan defense. Now,
(28:39):
I think he's lost to him a couple other times.
That was before D'Amico got there. The point and a
half is valuable there. There are game scripts where Buffalo
wins and I'm still on the right side, 21-20. That's
me being on the right side of it. It's a
(29:00):
rare score, but 17-16. Buffalo holds Houston to three field
goals and one touchdown. Buffalo ends up with 17. I
understand the feeling squeamish about how C.J. Stroud looked in
the postseason. But this is Houston at home. This is
(29:23):
that D'Amico Ryan's defense fully healthy and a Buffalo team
with the first game of a rookie head coach. I'm
getting a point and a half with a team that
I think is just as good as Buffalo and they're
the home team. I'll take Houston plus the point and
a half.
Speaker 2 (29:38):
Not worried about Stroud. Not worried about Josh Allen either.
Speaker 1 (29:43):
Listen, I think Josh Allen's awesome. This is one team
that is really D'Amico Ryan Stevens has befuddled him. And
I just, of course, I'm worried about Stroud, but I
don't think the Bills have a great pass defense this year.
We'll see how it looks. I just, I think Houston
and Buffalo are equal teams. Houston's at home and they're
(30:06):
getting points. It's not a lot of points, but they're
getting points. I'll take Houston plus a point and a
half in a game that I actually think it should
be flipped. I think it should be Houston minus one
and a half. It's Houston plus a point and a half.
All right. So I've gone so far with three dogs.
We've got our first favorite.
Speaker 2 (30:26):
And it's Philly. Minus five and a half versus Washington.
Speaker 1 (30:29):
All right, listen. Last few years, Philly has been a
covering machine early in the season. Washington has struggled early
in the season under Dan Quinn. But most notably, the
reason this is, this is, now again, I didn't tell
you that whole Monty Hall story. and then be like,
(30:50):
but before the year, this is how I felt. But
we are still before the year. So how I feel
about teams going into a year, that's all I can
base it on right now. I think Philly is going
to be excellent defensively.
Speaker 2 (31:02):
Excellent.
Speaker 1 (31:03):
I think Washington is going to struggle mightily. I think
Philly might have the best D-line outside of the Rams
in the whole NFL. Washington might have the worst offensive
line situation in their whole conference. I think this is
a game Jalen Carter can wreck on his own. I
(31:23):
am laying less than a touchdown with a team that
I feel is a real Super Bowl contender against a
team that I feel like is, you know, likely to
be picking in the top 10. I think this is
simply an offensive line, defensive line mismatch. Philadelphia. laying five
(31:45):
and a half. Also a little bit of a Jalen
Hurts chip on his shoulder. First game, no A.J. Brown.
Saquon Barkley, oh, don't forget about me. You know, Jameer Gibbs, B.
John Robinson, everybody. Philly, laying five and a half at
home against Washington is my final pick.
Speaker 2 (32:04):
Devontae Smith's first year as a wide receiver won, right?
Speaker 1 (32:06):
Yeah, number one. First year since he won the Heisman
at Alabama.
Speaker 2 (32:10):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (32:10):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (32:11):
I was surprised to not see this one in your
stay aways considering Tuesday's pod. But lastly, you've got Kansas
City minus two and a half against Denver.
Speaker 1 (32:21):
Listen, I don't love what's happening at left tackle for
the Chiefs. But ultimately, Patrick Mahomes, as a favorite of
less than three or as an underdog, is 30-13-1. I
(32:44):
don't think the Chiefs and Broncos are dead even teams.
I think the Chiefs are a cut above last year notwithstanding.
We'll see if I'm correct. This game's in Kansas City.
They're only two and a half point favorites. That means
what they're telling us is they think the Chiefs and
Broncos are dead even teams. I do not. I think
(33:05):
the Broncos are really going to miss... Jonathan Franklin Myers,
who they lost in free agency, and Jonathan Cooper, they
lost the commissioner's exempt list. I think Patrick has been
frothing at the mouth waiting for this game for seven months.
I think Kenneth Walker is a massive, massive upgrade for
Kansas City, and I think that Bo Nix, in that environment,
(33:29):
Monday night football, fresh off his first game back since
ankle surgery, I think that Bronco, even against this young,
new Chiefs defense, that Broncos offense could struggle. I watched
this Broncos team go to Arrowhead on Christmas against the
Chiefs third stringers and Chris Oladukun, and that game's tied
(33:50):
with two minutes left. I'll lay the two and a
half with Patrick in Kansas City. That is my final pick.
So to Monzi, my five picks are, for week one
of the season, New Orleans getting seven and a half
in Detroit, Tampa getting three and a half in Cincy,
Houston getting one and a half, At home against Buffalo.
(34:10):
Philly laying 5.5 at home against Washington. And Kansas City
laying 2.5 at home against Denver. We will talk touchdowns
and teasers in a moment. But first, Boost Mobile is
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visit BoostMobile.com. All right. I am looking at, They have
thrown in there some potential touchdown genie options.
Speaker 2 (35:11):
Eric Henry, I feel like you got to get a
lower percentage for that.
Speaker 1 (35:15):
Yeah, I mean, you don't want to lay, he's at 66%
to score one. So that's the equivalent of essentially minus 200.
You don't love that. Travis Hunter's at 10% to score.
You need way better than that. Like the, I almost,
here is, oh, you know what's fun? This is one
of the fun things about Polymarket. We can bet no
(35:38):
on some of these. You can just go the opposite.
Speaker 2 (35:42):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (35:42):
So, listen, I am going to spend more time looking
at the touchdown markets on Polymarket later in the season.
We're not going to do a touchdown genie this week,
but we might go anti-touchdown genie. We might on some
of these just go no. Like the... And see how
(36:02):
we do on that. Now, you're going to be laying
real money, but that's how I.
Speaker 2 (36:07):
Would do it. All right, come on, Zay. Putting the
genie back in the bottle. I like that.
Speaker 1 (36:10):
We need to. Putting the genie back in the bottle.
What a great line. That's exactly right. All right. I'm
deeply invested. And you are doing a three-team, eight-point, on
Polymarket they call it combo.
Speaker 3 (36:29):
Combo.
Speaker 1 (36:30):
Historically we've called this your teaser. Tell me your three teams,
your eight points. The same rules apply to combos as
to teasers for me. Let's see how I grade it.
Let's see what you got.
Speaker 2 (36:44):
So we're going to go Detroit, get them up to
plus one and a half, and then Green Bay. Oh,
my God. Don't love Jacobs and Micah being out, but
plus 10.5, it's the Vikings. I feel like they're in
a fair spot. And then lastly, we've got the Broncos
against your Chiefs at 10.5, plus 10.5.
Speaker 1 (37:06):
I mean, listen, Green Bay and Denver are great legs.
Taking teams from plus 2.5 to plus.
Speaker 2 (37:11):
10.5 is fine.
Speaker 1 (37:17):
Going through the zero, it's just such a bad way
to start off the year. You could have just taken
Jacksonville down to a pick.
Speaker 2 (37:27):
No, I get it. Who does Jacksonville have? They have Cleveland.
They have Cleveland, okay.
Speaker 1 (37:34):
But it's, no, I'm not swaying you.
Speaker 2 (37:36):
You got your thing. No, it's the Saints. I'm totally comfortable.
Plus one and a half, Detroit. Lock it in. Lock
it in. Follow me on.
Speaker 1 (37:43):
Detroit plus one and a half. Green Bay plus ten
and a half. Denver plus ten and a half. You're
laying a little juice because it's an eight-pointer, and I'm
here to tell you I'm giving you a C.
Speaker 2 (37:52):
I wish I could give you.
Speaker 1 (37:53):
A better grade, but you're going through your first pick,
first thing on my screen. You're going through zero. I
don't love it. All right, make me my offer before
we go.
Speaker 2 (38:02):
The offer is back. So the Panthers, they made the
mistake of trading away the pick that became Caleb Williams.
And now he's come back for revenge. So this week,
we're comboing Caleb three-plus passing touchdowns and 300-plus pass yards.
That is at 8%. That's at 8%, so.
Speaker 1 (38:19):
It's 12.5 to 1.
Speaker 3 (38:20):
8%.
Speaker 2 (38:20):
Big game.
Speaker 1 (38:20):
This one in 12 times.
Speaker 2 (38:21):
You know what?
Speaker 1 (38:39):
If we can get that at 8%, 12.5 to 1,
I'll take it. I don't mind that. There's a monster.
Do I think that Ben Johnson, you know, who's pretty
proud of himself at all times, there's a world where
he just tries to run up the score and Caleb cooks?
Does that happen more than 1 in 12 times this
game is played? I say yes. So, Caleb, Drake May
(39:04):
has the worst regular season game of his career. Caleb
has the best. We revisit that quarterback draft discussion. I'll
take it. Start there off by taking the offer. All right.
We're back, boys. Week one, NFL pick show. Shout out
to Boost Mobile. Shout out to Polymarket. Demondsey's got to
get off to work. I got to get to work.
(39:25):
Enjoy this weekend. Talk to you guys soon. Thank you
to Blue Duck. Thank you to Volume. What's right?
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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