Nick Wright shares his predictions for Week 4 of the NFL season. The show starts with Nick's "stay away" games including Bo Nix's Denver Broncos facing off with Brock Purdy and the red-hot San Francisco 49ers, Matthew Stafford's Los Angeles Rams taking on Jalen Hurts' Philadelphia Eagles, Dak Prescott's Dallas Cowboys vs. C.J. Stroud's Houston Texans in a must-win, and much more! Next, Nick reveals Nick's Picks for Week 4 including Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas City Chiefs battling Kirk Cousins and the Las Vegas Raiders for AFC West supremacy, Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills taking on Drake Maye and the struggling New England Patriots, and more! As always, the show wraps up with Touchdown Genie, Damonza's Teaser, and The Offer! #Volume
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Welcome in What's Right with Nick Wright episode 510. It
is our week 4 pick show and this episode as
always of What's Right with Nick Wright is presented to
you by Boost Mobile. Reminder everyone out there, we're doing
great on YouTube right now. We really appreciate it. Subscribe there.
Also help us out a ton if you subscribe on
Spotify and iTunes. Demanze, the teasers will come. You know what?
(00:27):
You're like D'Amico, Ryan's Texans. 0-3 means nothing to me. I,
on the other hand, feel very dialed on this season.
I thought week one, when I went 2-3, if you remember, I,
even after the fact, felt like I would have made
four of those five picks again. Week two, I went 3-2.
(00:50):
Last week, and put it up there, 4-1. One horrific pick.
I had a team laying seven and a half that
lost outright. It's a bad job by me. Seattle and Washington.
Kansas City laying ten and a half at Miami. The
producers were like, all the trends are against you. Everything
says it's bad. And my thought process was the Chiefs
(01:13):
can play their C game and still cover. That's exactly
what happened. The Jags laying two and a half against
New England. They won by 100 points. The Raiders getting
three and a half at New Orleans. I said they
could win outright, and they did. Dallas getting three and
a half against Baltimore. Not only covered that by a
half point, Had Dallas not screwed up that kickoff, maybe
(01:33):
they lose by six or seven in overtime. I get that.
But Dallas also jumped out to an early lead, controlled
big portions of that game. It was always a game
that was in the balance. So getting three and a
half feels like I was definitively on the right side.
So if we went two and three, and then three
and two, and then four and one, there's only one
(01:55):
place to go this week. Be a 5-0 week, which
we didn't have once last year. We haven't had a
5-0 week in years. We'll see if we can do
it this week. This week, I really like three of
the five. You guys are hearing this Friday. Let's see
if I would have been right. I would have had
(02:15):
Pittsburgh minus 2.5 as one of them. Maybe the fact
that I can't include Thursday games hurts me this week.
Maybe it saves me. Let's get to the other games, Demonte,
that I am staying away from.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
Colts versus Commanders. Commanders are three-and-a-half-point dogs.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
In Europe, I will be totally honest, I'm not sure
where in Europe. Maybe you guys can tell me somewhere.
I don't know if it's England. I don't know if
it's Germany. I don't know if it's Spain. I don't
know where the game is. But it's somewhere I could
probably look. It has no impact on my pick of
the game whatsoever, but I should probably know this. That
(02:52):
game is, oh, in London, where Tottenham plays. Okay. The
Colts might be okay. All right. They played the Ravens
in week one, no shame losing there. Played the Chiefs
in week two, losing overtime, no shame there. Played the
(03:13):
Texans in week three, get a win. Now they could have, oddly,
you could argue the game they looked the worst was
their one win, the win over the Texans. Their next
four neutral site commanders at Pittsburgh, home for the Titans,
at the Vikings, It feels like there is some room
(03:36):
potentially to make some hay. And we don't know if Jaden,
at least as of recording, or Mariota is starting for Washington. Listen,
I wish Jaden the best. I don't think him playing
with that bulky elbow brace is the best idea. I
(03:57):
personally would have had him have the surgery, shut him
down for the year. They're not doing that. Moral of
the story is, With everything I'm saying, you're probably like,
so Nick, why are you not taking the Colts? Because
I can't lay more than a field goal in one
of these weird London games. I just can't. Just general principle.
I like to take the dog in these spots. But
(04:17):
I think the Colts, I'm open to the possibility the
Colts are actually sneaky good. And so it's a London game.
I'll be in Vegas. I also, while I will set
an alarm to get up to watch this game, we
got to see how Saturday night goes. I'm staying away
from it. But my lean would be Colts minus the
(04:37):
three and a half.
Speaker 2 (04:38):
Next. Tennessee at Baltimore. Baltimore's 10 and a half point favorites.
Speaker 1 (04:44):
You love Baltimore.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
I love Baltimore. I don't love Baltimore right here. Minus
ten and a half?
Speaker 1 (04:49):
No.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
I wouldn't take it. I wouldn't take Tennessee either.
Speaker 1 (04:53):
So this is stay away for you. Yeah. It's also... Listen.
The pro-Titans side would be... Listen. They had a lead
on the Eagles. The... They.
They had the ball inside the 10 down five to
(05:15):
the giants. Like the last couple of weeks, they've been competitive.
They haven't been getting blown out. The anti Tennessee side
is if you've watched them play, that offense is so bad.
And there is so much reason for concern with cam ward.
With that said Baltimore back from Brazil, flying high, Lamar
(05:42):
limited in practice on Wednesday. Dude, listen, I'll go ahead
and report it. I think he had a cold, guys.
I think that the Brazilian climate, going from that to Maryland,
I think his immune system didn't react perfectly.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
The plane, all of it.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
It just feels like it's a little earlier than our
typical Lamar seasonal flu. I would be.
Gobsmacked if the Titans won this game. However, I don't
want to lay more than 10 with a Baltimore team
that could coast and feel fine about it. So I'm
(06:22):
staying away from it.
Speaker 3 (06:23):
Next.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
Dallas at Houston, Houston's three and a half point favorites.
Speaker 1 (06:28):
It's a trap America. Yeah. They're, they're, they're daring you
to pick the Cowboys. You're getting more than a field goal.
The Cowboys are better than the Texans. The Cowboys just
added Joey Porter Jr. The Texans have looked bad all year.
(06:51):
And the defense hasn't even been... Will Anderson Jr. has
been great, but the defense hasn't been that great. However,
Nico Collins should be back for this game. The Texans
have to have it. Dallas had a different type of
playing right back from Brazil. If I were playing this game,
(07:16):
I would take Dallas plus the points. Because I think
Dallas can win the game outright. I think Dallas is
better than Houston. And I know this is idiotic. In theory.
I think if it was Dallas plus two and a
half to Monza, I might have it in my picks.
(07:36):
The fact that it's plus three and a half and
it feels like they are, that the books are going
to have and the markets are going to have so
much disproportionate action on the Cowboys makes me say, stay away.
It just feels like something funny is, I don't know.
(07:57):
But after this.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
Game, I'll say like, if Houston loses this game, they're
not turning it on. Like, I would just say that it's,
It's probably done.
Speaker 1 (08:08):
0-4, the season's over. Now, if they're 0-4, they've got
two Jags games left, an Eagles game, a Ravens game. Yeah, 0-4,
season's over. And again, all my analysis feels like Dallas
should win, and they're getting 3.5, but Spidey's sense is tingling.
(08:33):
that this is going to be the most public side
of the weekend, so I'm staying away. You know what?
That's going to be a fun one to watch at
the Sportsbook in Vegas to see because you can get
an idea of how public the side is for the
crowd reactions. Oh, yeah. You know what I mean? And
just get a real idea of, you know, the betters.
(08:56):
All right, next.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
We got Rams at Philly. Philly's three-and-a-half-point dogs.
Speaker 1 (09:01):
So here's the thing. This is a, this is, I
think on poly market, I think that, you know, you're
to get, if you want to get three and a half, you're,
you know, you're paying like 55 cents. If you want to,
you know, lay only two and a half, you're paying
like 57 cents. I think that the, the probably neutral
(09:26):
line is three. But the, Polly market prediction markets don't
have pushes. So there's never going to, you know, it's
always going to be on a half point. So this is,
this thing opened Rams minus two and a half. It
immediately went to Rams minus three. It's now some places
like we're saying here, Rams minus three and a half.
(09:47):
So that is a, it's a tricky one to give
a fair handicap on in this context. We talked about
this game on Thursday. I think it is, is a
true panic time for whomever loses. It is a massive,
massive coaching mismatch. With that said, I say it's a
(10:11):
coaching mismatch. Sirianni's undefeated against McVay. He's 4-0. He's 4-0
against McVay.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
He's the only Italian coach in the NFL when you're
just You're so against him.
Speaker 1 (10:22):
Is that true?
Speaker 2 (10:23):
Is he the only Italian coach in the NFL? In
my head, he's the only Italian one. And you were
just dead set against him.
Speaker 1 (10:32):
And his D coordinator's Italian. Oh, man. Vic Fangio. I
didn't even think about that. I don't like that one bit.
And he's a former Chiefs coach. I didn't even think
about that. The Rams... Have to win. It's panic time
(10:53):
in Philly if Philly loses. I think three points is
probably exactly right, and I don't want to pay the
juice on three and a half, so I'm staying away. Next.
Speaker 2 (11:03):
Green Bay at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is three and
a half point dogs. Oh, brother.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
Green Bay has looked like one of the three worst
teams in the NFL, even in their win. They looked awful.
It took a Jets collapse. Tampa's starting Jalen Daniels, who
was not. He's an interesting prospect, but he was not
a great college player. He's a six-foot quarterback that played
(11:31):
five years at Kansas. And, you know, his, no, six
years at Kansas. He had three junior years because of injury.
So in his fifth year of college football, his first
year as a full-time starter two years ago, he had
14 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
At Kansas.
Speaker 1 (11:52):
Last year, he had 22 touchdowns and seven picks. I
understand he evidently was great in some of like the,
like the East West Shrine Bowl or something. I don't,
I don't know. So I am, I'm not, I am
not picking him in his first game as a starter,
but I am also not laying more than a field
goal with a Packers team that looks this bad. So
(12:13):
I'm just staying away entirely.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
Nasty game. Cardinals at Giants. Giants are two and a
half point dogs.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
Man, I really... The Cardinals, I.
I flirted with them all week. I don't think the
Cardinals are bad. Jacoby is solid. Jeremiah Love's good. The
coach is fine. All of that. But mediocre or bad team...
(12:43):
And they might be bad. I don't think they're bad.
I think they're below average. Not bad.
Speaker 3 (12:48):
That.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
This is where the west to east 1 p.m. start
really worries me. Like, they just played that physical game
against the Niners. They now are coming all the way
east for a 1 o'clock start. A Giants team that
(13:13):
is found away last week. I really do like the
Cardinals in this spot. But some of my principles of
they're not a good team. They're a road favorite. They're
traveling all the way. It's the longest road trip for
them of the year. I'm just staying away. But Arizona
(13:34):
minus two and a half was almost one of my picks.
Speaker 2 (13:37):
JJ McCarthy starting?
Speaker 1 (13:39):
No, Jameis is starting. Jameis is definitely starting. But Jameis
has been awful. I mean, Jameis has been really bad.
He's been really bad.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
Can they just bring JJ McCarthy over, though? Yeah, they
traded for him.
Speaker 1 (13:49):
But be the backup for now. Or maybe give him
a flyer if Jameis falls apart.
Speaker 2 (13:55):
We got Chargers at Seahawks. Seahawks are 7.5-point favorites.
Speaker 1 (14:02):
I mean, Seattle probably should blow them out. But talk about,
as Simmons would say, a kitchen sink game. This is
last chance saloon for the Chargers. You're talking about people's
job security if the Chargers get blown out here. They're
already 0-3. They have this game. And by the way,
(14:26):
just as a reminder to everyone, after this week, it
gets easier. They play the Broncos. Then after that, way easier.
They go to Kansas City. Then after that, they get
a bye week to, you know, look at themselves at 0-6.
And then they stay home to play the Rams. Then
they go to the Texans. Then they go to the Ravens.
(14:47):
This is going to spiral on the Chargers. With that said,
Seattle's defense looked just shaky enough last week that I
don't want to lay the 7.5 points. It would be
one of the biggest stunners of the season to me
(15:09):
if Seattle loses back-to-back games here. and against Washington and
the Chargers. So I like Seattle. Seattle, to me, is
a very interesting teaser leg, even though they, you know,
screwed teasers last week. But I'm not laying the seven
and a half because the Chargers just are going to, there's,
(15:33):
they know if they lose this game, their season's over.
Speaker 2 (15:35):
Next. Denver had Niners. Niners, two and a half point favorites.
Speaker 1 (15:41):
This was another one. where I looked long and hard
at the road team, Denver getting the two and a half.
And the reason I did is, listen, the Niners offense
has looked unbelievable and Purdy has been great. There's no
denying it. No, you know, ifs, ands, or buts about it.
(16:03):
I do wonder if they are going to be hurt,
the Monzae, by the fact that I think that I
would like the Niners in this spot more later in
the year when they had more experience this season playing
better defenses. For the Niners, week one, weird Australia game
(16:26):
where the Rams are not dialed, it would appear. Week two,
you play the Dolphins, awful defense. Week three, you play
the Cardinals, awful defense. Now, all of a sudden, you're
playing what I think is an elite defense still, even
if it's not quite as good as last year. Like,
do they not have the battle scars of the season
(16:50):
to be prepared for that? Plus, they are the more
banged up team. And the Broncos have just begrudgingly earned
my respect on... they've, even if they're down big early,
they're going to make it a game late. So for
all those reasons, I thought about Denver plus two and
(17:10):
a half, but then I thought about the fact that
the Niners have looked awesome for 12 out of 12
quarters this year. And the Broncos have looked awesome for
three out of 12 quarters this year and looked awful
for the other nine.
Speaker 2 (17:27):
So that's why San Francisco is the super bowl implications
after this one.
Speaker 1 (17:32):
I feel like, Oh, absolutely. And for Denver, it, you,
they feel like, all right, the chiefs be this in
week one in their building. We'll get a, we can
get them back. Denver. If Denver wins this game, they
feel like, man, we just, we had a stretch of
our season. That was Jags Rams. Niners. And we went
(17:54):
three and up like that would be that's big time.
This game's awesome. Um, So my lean was Denver, but
I'm staying away from it. Next.
Speaker 2 (18:04):
Detroit at Carolina. Carolina's three and a half point dogs.
Speaker 1 (18:10):
My lean here was Carolina. Because I just think... I
don't think people have acknowledged quite yet that the Lions
defense is just going to be awful. And I.
Can Carolina score? Last week they struggled, but in general, yes.
(18:34):
I don't think the Lions will win a game this year.
They don't score 30 points. I think that they're going
to score. All of their wins, they'll score 30. So
if I'm laying three and a half, do I think
they're going to score 35? I don't know. So I
leaned Carolina. However, As bad as that defense is, that
(18:56):
offense in Detroit is great, so I could see them
winning by margin, so I'm staying away from it. And
last but not least is Monday Night Football.
Speaker 2 (19:05):
We got Atlanta at New Orleans. New Orleans, two and
a half point favorites.
Speaker 1 (19:09):
Yeah, I lean Atlanta, but I think the line's about right.
I think these two teams are around equivalent. See if Pennix,
you know, was that a hot game or what it
was from him. So I'm just staying away from it.
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Speaker 1 (20:58):
All right, it's now time for Nick's Picks brought to
you by Polymarket. This one demands a... The first one
I telegraphed during Thursday's show is pretty clear where I stand.
What is it?
Speaker 2 (21:09):
Buffalo minus six and a half versus New England.
Speaker 1 (21:12):
Yeah, listen. Seven and a half, I might have a
little trepidation. Six and a half, run into the window. Listen,
I know the public's all over the bills, but I
think the Sharps are as well. All the trends say...
A divisional game is a big dog. You like New England.
I understand Vrabel is excellent in these spots historically. Counterpoint
(21:36):
to all of that. The Bills are really good and
the Patriots are bad. And the Patriots' defense is going
to be enough against most offenses to keep them in games,
but not against elite offenses. And the Bills do have
an elite offense. They have an elite running game. They
(21:56):
have a top three quarterback in the world. They have
an elite offensive line. And that Bills D-line is actually
pretty underrated. That Patriots offensive line is dealing with a
lot of injuries, kind of an underrated part of that
game or about the Patriots season thus far is their
(22:20):
injuries to their interior offensive line and what's going on
with Caleb Lomu, their first-round pick. Whatever it is, I
think the Bills win this game by margin. Again, I
said 7.5, I'd maybe have some trepidation, but I think
the Bills win this game easily. And we're talking like
28-13 type of game. So Buffalo minus 6.5. Next.
Speaker 2 (22:45):
Jacksonville plus 2.5 at Cincinnati.
Speaker 1 (22:48):
Listen, I will admit this feels a little bit like
the Jags Broncos spot where I was getting the Jags
plus two and a half. I thought they were the
better team. The Jags were controlling that game and then
folded at the end. That's one of my six losses
on the season. If I step on that same rake again,
so be it. I think the Jags are excellent. I
(23:09):
think they have an, they, in this matchup, they have
the better coach. They have the better defense. And right now,
this moment, they might have the better quarterback. I'm getting
two and a half points. I think the Jags went
out right. I think the Jags are a legitimate Super
Bowl threat. Now, they've got a long way to go
(23:31):
to prove that. Cincinnati also. Burrow has been solid this year,
not spectacular. And two of, you know, two of their
best plays of the year took on just the chase
play in week two and the Higgins play in week three.
(23:51):
Now those are great players and great players make great plays.
So it's not like they can't keep doing that, but
the running game for them has been a little disappointing
this year. The defense in week three took a huge
step back. The Jags are coming off their best game
of the year. They got to rest guys in the
fourth quarter. It's like, I think the Jags win this game.
I think this is 28, 27, Jacksonville. Jacksonville getting two
(24:18):
and a half is pick number two.
Speaker 2 (24:21):
So what is this? What is this here, man? We
got the Jets plus three and a half at Chicago.
Not enough games?
Speaker 1 (24:32):
No, I just, I really like this spot. I think
the Jets, I think Geno's season has been underrated so
far this year. Okay? So, week two, they blew it
against the Packers. But Geno, so far this season, is
throwing for 250 yards per game. Hasn't turned the ball over.
(24:57):
Or does he have a fumble? I don't think he
has a fumble. I'll check on that real quick. No.
Hasn't turned the ball over. Has a 110 rating. Almost
eight yards per attempt. You saw them... with Kenyon Sadiq
last week really coming into the passing game, I think
(25:19):
the Bears' defense is still actually bad. I think that
Sirianni and the Eagles just couldn't take advantage of it.
I don't know. My guess is Tyson Bajent is going
to start, not Case Keenum. So I don't know if
they're going to get the level of veteran consistency they
got from Keenum. And I'm getting three and a half points.
(25:41):
So I... I just think, I don't think the Bears
are good enough to deserve to lay more than a
field goal without Caleb playing unless they are playing just
one of the three worst teams in the league. And
the Jets are not that. And so I know this
is maybe a surprising one, but the Jets' defense has
(26:05):
been top five-ish in the league. And if Bajan is starting,
he hasn't played in years. I'm not as big of
a fan of his as some. The Bears as a
whole are off a short week, kind of an emotional
roller coaster the last few weeks. I'm getting three and
a half points. The back door's open, the Jets leading,
(26:27):
and the Bears stealing it in the end. Now again,
Ben Johnson just undressed Nick Sirianni, and now I'm like,
but Aaron Glenn will have a plan. I understand that
doesn't sound great. But I just think the Jets' offense
will be more effective than the Eagles were in this spot.
So I'll take the Jets plus three and a half.
Speaker 2 (26:51):
That's pretty solid. Minnesota minus ten and a half versus Miami.
Going against Miami in two straight weeks. Big numbers.
Speaker 1 (26:59):
Listen, Miami's got to show that they can– Miami's got
to show that they're not just going to get dog
walked every week before I stop going against them. And
week one, they lose by 14. Week two, they lose
(27:20):
by 22. Week three, they lose by 14. Now they're
going to Minnesota. No Devin A. Chan, sadly. He's their
best weapon. That Brian Flores blitz, this just feels like... Listen,
Minnesota's offense to Monza is dead last in a bunch
of categories. The offense has not been good and I'm
(27:40):
laying more than 10 points. I get that. I feel
like Minnesota's defense is almost, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (27:47):
What Miami could finish with like three points.
Speaker 1 (27:49):
Yes, absolutely. And Minnesota, you know, you know what? Touchdown
genie throw in their Minnesota defense special teams. Like this
feels like a game. One of them scores, um, Miami's
the only the third team since 2002 to score fewer
than 14 points per game in the first three games
(28:11):
and lose by an average of more than 14 points
per game. The Chiefs did not play well last week
and won by 14. I'll take Minnesota minus the 10
and a half. And last but not least.
Speaker 2 (28:23):
We got Kansas City minus four and a half at Vegas.
You'll be there for this one.
Speaker 1 (28:29):
I will be there for this one. We talked about
Mahomes 13-2 against the Raiders. Mahomes and Reed have the
most wins of any coach-quarterback combo in that stadium, Demase.
They only get to play there once a year.
Speaker 2 (28:42):
Think about that.
Speaker 1 (28:44):
Well, that's, you know, when they host the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (28:47):
Wait, no, the stadium's not new.
Speaker 1 (28:50):
I mean, it's new-ish. I think it's 10, let me see, Allegiant,
I think Stadium Wiki. Allegiant Stadium opened in... When did
it open? Gosh darn it. 2017, eight years ago.
Speaker 2 (29:06):
Yeah, they do play them once a year. A lot
of teams don't play them once in the season.
Speaker 1 (29:13):
No, but you know who plays there eight or nine
times a year? The Raiders. Reed and Mahomes have more
wins than any Raiders coach-quarterback combo in that state of it. Copy.
Speaker 2 (29:25):
That was not what I heard in the beginning. That's insane.
Speaker 1 (29:28):
Andy has.
If Andy wins this game, he has won more games
in that stadium than any other head coach, including Raiders
head coaches. Patrick already has only... Derek Carr has more
wins in that stadium than Patrick, which is, he has 11,
Patrick has six. I think the Chiefs have an elite
(29:50):
offense again, so I don't mind laying four and a
half on the road. I think the Raiders are going
to be able to score, but I think the Chiefs
are going to score 30. So this feels to me
like 30 to 24, 31 to 23, something in that range.
So I'll lay the four and a half with Kansas City.
So my five picks coming off of four in one week,
(30:14):
Buffalo laying six and a half at home against New England.
Jacksonville getting 2.5 at Cincinnati. The Jets getting 3.5 at Chicago.
Minnesota laying 10.5 at home against Miami. And the Chiefs
laying 4.5 in Las Vegas. We will get to touchdown
Genie and DeManzi's teaser in a moment. But first, Boost
(30:34):
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For full offer details, visit BoostMobile.com. All right, Demanze, touchdown genie.
Last week, I failed everyone.
Speaker 2 (31:14):
Last week you had Emmitt Johnson. It was at 21%.
That was– he's just not getting his reps yet. It's
Kenneth Walker time.
Speaker 1 (31:20):
No, he's not getting his reps yet. A defensive touchdown
in the Minnesota-Miami game. It seems like it's for either side.
Speaker 2 (31:31):
You know what?
Speaker 1 (31:31):
I'm all right with that because Kyler, you know, could
screw it up. It's 28%. So you get a little
worse than 3-1. Lock that in. Defensive special team touchdown, Minnesota, Miami.
Now let's get to the main. Go ahead. What were
you about to say?
Speaker 2 (31:45):
What odds do you think you would get on calling
a safety for a game? That's got to be pretty
good odds. Oh, yeah.
Speaker 1 (31:51):
I mean, 11%. So you get nine to one.
Speaker 2 (31:55):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (31:56):
So nine to one. That feels like not good enough. Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 2 (32:01):
So last week, Seattle got me. I had a three-team
eight-point teaser. It was Kansas City minus two and a
half covered. Las Vegas, plus 11.5, covered. Seattle, just had
to pick them. Who could have saw that one coming?
But we got week four, three-team, seven-and-a-half-point teaser. We got Indy.
(32:23):
We're going to go up to plus four. Baltimore, minus three.
And then Carolina up to plus 11. I've never started
these years off 0-4, so this is a big week
for me. And those trail in the teaser. But, yeah.
That's where we're going with week four.
Speaker 1 (32:40):
Can I just ask you a favor here?
Speaker 2 (32:43):
What is it?
Speaker 1 (32:44):
Because you've always done eight pointers. And now it's a
seven and a half pointer.
Speaker 2 (32:49):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (32:50):
Can I convince you to go back to the eight
pointer so you can get Baltimore minus two and a half?
Is that something I can convince you to do here?
Let's just add a half point to all these.
Speaker 2 (33:03):
So the half point, I do think that there's a
thing with Polymarket.
Speaker 1 (33:09):
No, I understand. Right. But you can. No, no, no.
That's what I'm saying. So you're doing a seven and
a half point teaser. I'm adjusting this for you. You're
getting Indy plus four and a half. You're getting Baltimore
minus two and a half. And you're getting Carolina plus
11 and a half. It doesn't really matter for any.
There we go. In Carolina, he has 11 and a half.
(33:31):
That's fine. It doesn't really matter for anything except for Baltimore.
But it just, it just, it's only a tiny bit
more juice. And you might as well get Baltimore through three.
Speaker 2 (33:41):
I'll take it.
Speaker 1 (33:43):
I mean, if we're going to be teased, listen, I
have to give you a C on this because you're
teasing into the Colts from three and minus three and
a half plus four and a half. I don't love that.
We got to go.
Speaker 2 (33:52):
We got to take some different strategies.
Speaker 1 (33:53):
You got to shake the snow globe.
Speaker 2 (33:55):
I agree.
Speaker 1 (33:56):
Ignore me. Who cares? I agree. You got to get
a win. I'm rooting for you. There's our polymarket combo
teaser of the week.
Speaker 3 (34:03):
All right.
Speaker 1 (34:03):
What's the offer?
Speaker 2 (34:05):
So you said the off-rad bad mojo last week. The
Chargers had even worse mojo. The Bills to win and
Herbert plus one plus interception at 35%. That did hit.
Speaker 1 (34:15):
That hit, and I turned it down.
Speaker 2 (34:18):
This week we're going to go with a little bit
of revenge for Derrick Henry. Two plus touchdowns at 28%.
Against his former team. The Titans, yes.
Speaker 1 (34:31):
I don't love it. but because you guys gave me
a winning offer last week and I turned it down,
I'll take it. So I've got a defensive score in
the Dolphins-Vikings game at 28% and Derrick Henry to score
multiple touchdowns at 28%. Whatever. Sign me up. Big shout
(34:54):
out to Polymarket and to Boost Mobile. Big shout out
to Blue Duck and to Volumes. Enjoy the games. If
you're in Vegas this weekend, say hello if you see me.
If you're at the game, say hello if you see me. Otherwise,
I'll see you guys on TV Monday and back here
on Tuesday. What's right?
Welcome in What's Right with Nick Wright episode 510. It
is our week 4 pick show and this episode as
always of What's Right with Nick Wright is presented to
you by Boost Mobile. Reminder everyone out there, we're doing
great on YouTube right now. We really appreciate it. Subscribe there.
Also help us out a ton if you subscribe on
Spotify and iTunes. Demanze, the teasers will come. You know what?
(00:27):
You're like D'Amico, Ryan's Texans. 0-3 means nothing to me. I,
on the other hand, feel very dialed on this season.
I thought week one, when I went 2-3, if you remember, I,
even after the fact, felt like I would have made
four of those five picks again. Week two, I went 3-2.
(00:50):
Last week, and put it up there, 4-1. One horrific pick.
I had a team laying seven and a half that
lost outright. It's a bad job by me. Seattle and Washington.
Kansas City laying ten and a half at Miami. The
producers were like, all the trends are against you. Everything
says it's bad. And my thought process was the Chiefs
(01:13):
can play their C game and still cover. That's exactly
what happened. The Jags laying two and a half against
New England. They won by 100 points. The Raiders getting
three and a half at New Orleans. I said they
could win outright, and they did. Dallas getting three and
a half against Baltimore. Not only covered that by a
half point, Had Dallas not screwed up that kickoff, maybe
(01:33):
they lose by six or seven in overtime. I get that.
But Dallas also jumped out to an early lead, controlled
big portions of that game. It was always a game
that was in the balance. So getting three and a
half feels like I was definitively on the right side.
So if we went two and three, and then three
and two, and then four and one, there's only one
(01:55):
place to go this week. Be a 5-0 week, which
we didn't have once last year. We haven't had a
5-0 week in years. We'll see if we can do
it this week. This week, I really like three of
the five. You guys are hearing this Friday. Let's see
if I would have been right. I would have had
(02:15):
Pittsburgh minus 2.5 as one of them. Maybe the fact
that I can't include Thursday games hurts me this week.
Maybe it saves me. Let's get to the other games, Demonte,
that I am staying away from.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
Colts versus Commanders. Commanders are three-and-a-half-point dogs.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
In Europe, I will be totally honest, I'm not sure
where in Europe. Maybe you guys can tell me somewhere.
I don't know if it's England. I don't know if
it's Germany. I don't know if it's Spain. I don't
know where the game is. But it's somewhere I could
probably look. It has no impact on my pick of
the game whatsoever, but I should probably know this. That
(02:52):
game is, oh, in London, where Tottenham plays. Okay. The
Colts might be okay. All right. They played the Ravens
in week one, no shame losing there. Played the Chiefs
in week two, losing overtime, no shame there. Played the
(03:13):
Texans in week three, get a win. Now they could have, oddly,
you could argue the game they looked the worst was
their one win, the win over the Texans. Their next
four neutral site commanders at Pittsburgh, home for the Titans,
at the Vikings, It feels like there is some room
(03:36):
potentially to make some hay. And we don't know if Jaden,
at least as of recording, or Mariota is starting for Washington. Listen,
I wish Jaden the best. I don't think him playing
with that bulky elbow brace is the best idea. I
(03:57):
personally would have had him have the surgery, shut him
down for the year. They're not doing that. Moral of
the story is, With everything I'm saying, you're probably like,
so Nick, why are you not taking the Colts? Because
I can't lay more than a field goal in one
of these weird London games. I just can't. Just general principle.
I like to take the dog in these spots. But
(04:17):
I think the Colts, I'm open to the possibility the
Colts are actually sneaky good. And so it's a London game.
I'll be in Vegas. I also, while I will set
an alarm to get up to watch this game, we
got to see how Saturday night goes. I'm staying away
from it. But my lean would be Colts minus the
(04:37):
three and a half.
Speaker 2 (04:38):
Next. Tennessee at Baltimore. Baltimore's 10 and a half point favorites.
Speaker 1 (04:44):
You love Baltimore.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
I love Baltimore. I don't love Baltimore right here. Minus
ten and a half?
Speaker 1 (04:49):
No.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
I wouldn't take it. I wouldn't take Tennessee either.
Speaker 1 (04:53):
So this is stay away for you. Yeah. It's also... Listen.
The pro-Titans side would be... Listen. They had a lead
on the Eagles. The... They.
They had the ball inside the 10 down five to
(05:15):
the giants. Like the last couple of weeks, they've been competitive.
They haven't been getting blown out. The anti Tennessee side
is if you've watched them play, that offense is so bad.
And there is so much reason for concern with cam ward.
With that said Baltimore back from Brazil, flying high, Lamar
(05:42):
limited in practice on Wednesday. Dude, listen, I'll go ahead
and report it. I think he had a cold, guys.
I think that the Brazilian climate, going from that to Maryland,
I think his immune system didn't react perfectly.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
The plane, all of it.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
It just feels like it's a little earlier than our
typical Lamar seasonal flu. I would be.
Gobsmacked if the Titans won this game. However, I don't
want to lay more than 10 with a Baltimore team
that could coast and feel fine about it. So I'm
(06:22):
staying away from it.
Speaker 3 (06:23):
Next.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
Dallas at Houston, Houston's three and a half point favorites.
Speaker 1 (06:28):
It's a trap America. Yeah. They're, they're, they're daring you
to pick the Cowboys. You're getting more than a field goal.
The Cowboys are better than the Texans. The Cowboys just
added Joey Porter Jr. The Texans have looked bad all year.
(06:51):
And the defense hasn't even been... Will Anderson Jr. has
been great, but the defense hasn't been that great. However,
Nico Collins should be back for this game. The Texans
have to have it. Dallas had a different type of
playing right back from Brazil. If I were playing this game,
(07:16):
I would take Dallas plus the points. Because I think
Dallas can win the game outright. I think Dallas is
better than Houston. And I know this is idiotic. In theory.
I think if it was Dallas plus two and a
half to Monza, I might have it in my picks.
(07:36):
The fact that it's plus three and a half and
it feels like they are, that the books are going
to have and the markets are going to have so
much disproportionate action on the Cowboys makes me say, stay away.
It just feels like something funny is, I don't know.
(07:57):
But after this.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
Game, I'll say like, if Houston loses this game, they're
not turning it on. Like, I would just say that it's,
It's probably done.
Speaker 1 (08:08):
0-4, the season's over. Now, if they're 0-4, they've got
two Jags games left, an Eagles game, a Ravens game. Yeah, 0-4,
season's over. And again, all my analysis feels like Dallas
should win, and they're getting 3.5, but Spidey's sense is tingling.
(08:33):
that this is going to be the most public side
of the weekend, so I'm staying away. You know what?
That's going to be a fun one to watch at
the Sportsbook in Vegas to see because you can get
an idea of how public the side is for the
crowd reactions. Oh, yeah. You know what I mean? And
just get a real idea of, you know, the betters.
(08:56):
All right, next.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
We got Rams at Philly. Philly's three-and-a-half-point dogs.
Speaker 1 (09:01):
So here's the thing. This is a, this is, I
think on poly market, I think that, you know, you're
to get, if you want to get three and a half, you're,
you know, you're paying like 55 cents. If you want to,
you know, lay only two and a half, you're paying
like 57 cents. I think that the, the probably neutral
(09:26):
line is three. But the, Polly market prediction markets don't
have pushes. So there's never going to, you know, it's
always going to be on a half point. So this is,
this thing opened Rams minus two and a half. It
immediately went to Rams minus three. It's now some places
like we're saying here, Rams minus three and a half.
(09:47):
So that is a, it's a tricky one to give
a fair handicap on in this context. We talked about
this game on Thursday. I think it is, is a
true panic time for whomever loses. It is a massive,
massive coaching mismatch. With that said, I say it's a
(10:11):
coaching mismatch. Sirianni's undefeated against McVay. He's 4-0. He's 4-0
against McVay.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
He's the only Italian coach in the NFL when you're
just You're so against him.
Speaker 1 (10:22):
Is that true?
Speaker 2 (10:23):
Is he the only Italian coach in the NFL? In
my head, he's the only Italian one. And you were
just dead set against him.
Speaker 1 (10:32):
And his D coordinator's Italian. Oh, man. Vic Fangio. I
didn't even think about that. I don't like that one bit.
And he's a former Chiefs coach. I didn't even think
about that. The Rams... Have to win. It's panic time
(10:53):
in Philly if Philly loses. I think three points is
probably exactly right, and I don't want to pay the
juice on three and a half, so I'm staying away. Next.
Speaker 2 (11:03):
Green Bay at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is three and
a half point dogs. Oh, brother.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
Green Bay has looked like one of the three worst
teams in the NFL, even in their win. They looked awful.
It took a Jets collapse. Tampa's starting Jalen Daniels, who
was not. He's an interesting prospect, but he was not
a great college player. He's a six-foot quarterback that played
(11:31):
five years at Kansas. And, you know, his, no, six
years at Kansas. He had three junior years because of injury.
So in his fifth year of college football, his first
year as a full-time starter two years ago, he had
14 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
At Kansas.
Speaker 1 (11:52):
Last year, he had 22 touchdowns and seven picks. I
understand he evidently was great in some of like the,
like the East West Shrine Bowl or something. I don't,
I don't know. So I am, I'm not, I am
not picking him in his first game as a starter,
but I am also not laying more than a field
goal with a Packers team that looks this bad. So
(12:13):
I'm just staying away entirely.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
Nasty game. Cardinals at Giants. Giants are two and a
half point dogs.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
Man, I really... The Cardinals, I.
I flirted with them all week. I don't think the
Cardinals are bad. Jacoby is solid. Jeremiah Love's good. The
coach is fine. All of that. But mediocre or bad team...
(12:43):
And they might be bad. I don't think they're bad.
I think they're below average. Not bad.
Speaker 3 (12:48):
That.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
This is where the west to east 1 p.m. start
really worries me. Like, they just played that physical game
against the Niners. They now are coming all the way
east for a 1 o'clock start. A Giants team that
(13:13):
is found away last week. I really do like the
Cardinals in this spot. But some of my principles of
they're not a good team. They're a road favorite. They're
traveling all the way. It's the longest road trip for
them of the year. I'm just staying away. But Arizona
(13:34):
minus two and a half was almost one of my picks.
Speaker 2 (13:37):
JJ McCarthy starting?
Speaker 1 (13:39):
No, Jameis is starting. Jameis is definitely starting. But Jameis
has been awful. I mean, Jameis has been really bad.
He's been really bad.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
Can they just bring JJ McCarthy over, though? Yeah, they
traded for him.
Speaker 1 (13:49):
But be the backup for now. Or maybe give him
a flyer if Jameis falls apart.
Speaker 2 (13:55):
We got Chargers at Seahawks. Seahawks are 7.5-point favorites.
Speaker 1 (14:02):
I mean, Seattle probably should blow them out. But talk about,
as Simmons would say, a kitchen sink game. This is
last chance saloon for the Chargers. You're talking about people's
job security if the Chargers get blown out here. They're
already 0-3. They have this game. And by the way,
(14:26):
just as a reminder to everyone, after this week, it
gets easier. They play the Broncos. Then after that, way easier.
They go to Kansas City. Then after that, they get
a bye week to, you know, look at themselves at 0-6.
And then they stay home to play the Rams. Then
they go to the Texans. Then they go to the Ravens.
(14:47):
This is going to spiral on the Chargers. With that said,
Seattle's defense looked just shaky enough last week that I
don't want to lay the 7.5 points. It would be
one of the biggest stunners of the season to me
(15:09):
if Seattle loses back-to-back games here. and against Washington and
the Chargers. So I like Seattle. Seattle, to me, is
a very interesting teaser leg, even though they, you know,
screwed teasers last week. But I'm not laying the seven
and a half because the Chargers just are going to, there's,
(15:33):
they know if they lose this game, their season's over.
Speaker 2 (15:35):
Next. Denver had Niners. Niners, two and a half point favorites.
Speaker 1 (15:41):
This was another one. where I looked long and hard
at the road team, Denver getting the two and a half.
And the reason I did is, listen, the Niners offense
has looked unbelievable and Purdy has been great. There's no
denying it. No, you know, ifs, ands, or buts about it.
(16:03):
I do wonder if they are going to be hurt,
the Monzae, by the fact that I think that I
would like the Niners in this spot more later in
the year when they had more experience this season playing
better defenses. For the Niners, week one, weird Australia game
(16:26):
where the Rams are not dialed, it would appear. Week two,
you play the Dolphins, awful defense. Week three, you play
the Cardinals, awful defense. Now, all of a sudden, you're
playing what I think is an elite defense still, even
if it's not quite as good as last year. Like,
do they not have the battle scars of the season
(16:50):
to be prepared for that? Plus, they are the more
banged up team. And the Broncos have just begrudgingly earned
my respect on... they've, even if they're down big early,
they're going to make it a game late. So for
all those reasons, I thought about Denver plus two and
(17:10):
a half, but then I thought about the fact that
the Niners have looked awesome for 12 out of 12
quarters this year. And the Broncos have looked awesome for
three out of 12 quarters this year and looked awful
for the other nine.
Speaker 2 (17:27):
So that's why San Francisco is the super bowl implications
after this one.
Speaker 1 (17:32):
I feel like, Oh, absolutely. And for Denver, it, you,
they feel like, all right, the chiefs be this in
week one in their building. We'll get a, we can
get them back. Denver. If Denver wins this game, they
feel like, man, we just, we had a stretch of
our season. That was Jags Rams. Niners. And we went
(17:54):
three and up like that would be that's big time.
This game's awesome. Um, So my lean was Denver, but
I'm staying away from it. Next.
Speaker 2 (18:04):
Detroit at Carolina. Carolina's three and a half point dogs.
Speaker 1 (18:10):
My lean here was Carolina. Because I just think... I
don't think people have acknowledged quite yet that the Lions
defense is just going to be awful. And I.
Can Carolina score? Last week they struggled, but in general, yes.
(18:34):
I don't think the Lions will win a game this year.
They don't score 30 points. I think that they're going
to score. All of their wins, they'll score 30. So
if I'm laying three and a half, do I think
they're going to score 35? I don't know. So I
leaned Carolina. However, As bad as that defense is, that
(18:56):
offense in Detroit is great, so I could see them
winning by margin, so I'm staying away from it. And
last but not least is Monday Night Football.
Speaker 2 (19:05):
We got Atlanta at New Orleans. New Orleans, two and
a half point favorites.
Speaker 1 (19:09):
Yeah, I lean Atlanta, but I think the line's about right.
I think these two teams are around equivalent. See if Pennix,
you know, was that a hot game or what it
was from him. So I'm just staying away from it.
So that leaves us five games. Those five games are
brought to you by Polymarket. And I want to tell
(19:29):
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(20:13):
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Speaker 3 (20:35):
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Speaker 1 (20:58):
All right, it's now time for Nick's Picks brought to
you by Polymarket. This one demands a... The first one
I telegraphed during Thursday's show is pretty clear where I stand.
What is it?
Speaker 2 (21:09):
Buffalo minus six and a half versus New England.
Speaker 1 (21:12):
Yeah, listen. Seven and a half, I might have a
little trepidation. Six and a half, run into the window. Listen,
I know the public's all over the bills, but I
think the Sharps are as well. All the trends say...
A divisional game is a big dog. You like New England.
I understand Vrabel is excellent in these spots historically. Counterpoint
(21:36):
to all of that. The Bills are really good and
the Patriots are bad. And the Patriots' defense is going
to be enough against most offenses to keep them in games,
but not against elite offenses. And the Bills do have
an elite offense. They have an elite running game. They
(21:56):
have a top three quarterback in the world. They have
an elite offensive line. And that Bills D-line is actually
pretty underrated. That Patriots offensive line is dealing with a
lot of injuries, kind of an underrated part of that
game or about the Patriots season thus far is their
(22:20):
injuries to their interior offensive line and what's going on
with Caleb Lomu, their first-round pick. Whatever it is, I
think the Bills win this game by margin. Again, I
said 7.5, I'd maybe have some trepidation, but I think
the Bills win this game easily. And we're talking like
28-13 type of game. So Buffalo minus 6.5. Next.
Speaker 2 (22:45):
Jacksonville plus 2.5 at Cincinnati.
Speaker 1 (22:48):
Listen, I will admit this feels a little bit like
the Jags Broncos spot where I was getting the Jags
plus two and a half. I thought they were the
better team. The Jags were controlling that game and then
folded at the end. That's one of my six losses
on the season. If I step on that same rake again,
so be it. I think the Jags are excellent. I
(23:09):
think they have an, they, in this matchup, they have
the better coach. They have the better defense. And right now,
this moment, they might have the better quarterback. I'm getting
two and a half points. I think the Jags went
out right. I think the Jags are a legitimate Super
Bowl threat. Now, they've got a long way to go
(23:31):
to prove that. Cincinnati also. Burrow has been solid this year,
not spectacular. And two of, you know, two of their
best plays of the year took on just the chase
play in week two and the Higgins play in week three.
(23:51):
Now those are great players and great players make great plays.
So it's not like they can't keep doing that, but
the running game for them has been a little disappointing
this year. The defense in week three took a huge
step back. The Jags are coming off their best game
of the year. They got to rest guys in the
fourth quarter. It's like, I think the Jags win this game.
I think this is 28, 27, Jacksonville. Jacksonville getting two
(24:18):
and a half is pick number two.
Speaker 2 (24:21):
So what is this? What is this here, man? We
got the Jets plus three and a half at Chicago.
Not enough games?
Speaker 1 (24:32):
No, I just, I really like this spot. I think
the Jets, I think Geno's season has been underrated so
far this year. Okay? So, week two, they blew it
against the Packers. But Geno, so far this season, is
throwing for 250 yards per game. Hasn't turned the ball over.
(24:57):
Or does he have a fumble? I don't think he
has a fumble. I'll check on that real quick. No.
Hasn't turned the ball over. Has a 110 rating. Almost
eight yards per attempt. You saw them... with Kenyon Sadiq
last week really coming into the passing game, I think
(25:19):
the Bears' defense is still actually bad. I think that
Sirianni and the Eagles just couldn't take advantage of it.
I don't know. My guess is Tyson Bajent is going
to start, not Case Keenum. So I don't know if
they're going to get the level of veteran consistency they
got from Keenum. And I'm getting three and a half points.
(25:41):
So I... I just think, I don't think the Bears
are good enough to deserve to lay more than a
field goal without Caleb playing unless they are playing just
one of the three worst teams in the league. And
the Jets are not that. And so I know this
is maybe a surprising one, but the Jets' defense has
(26:05):
been top five-ish in the league. And if Bajan is starting,
he hasn't played in years. I'm not as big of
a fan of his as some. The Bears as a
whole are off a short week, kind of an emotional
roller coaster the last few weeks. I'm getting three and
a half points. The back door's open, the Jets leading,
(26:27):
and the Bears stealing it in the end. Now again,
Ben Johnson just undressed Nick Sirianni, and now I'm like,
but Aaron Glenn will have a plan. I understand that
doesn't sound great. But I just think the Jets' offense
will be more effective than the Eagles were in this spot.
So I'll take the Jets plus three and a half.
Speaker 2 (26:51):
That's pretty solid. Minnesota minus ten and a half versus Miami.
Going against Miami in two straight weeks. Big numbers.
Speaker 1 (26:59):
Listen, Miami's got to show that they can– Miami's got
to show that they're not just going to get dog
walked every week before I stop going against them. And
week one, they lose by 14. Week two, they lose
(27:20):
by 22. Week three, they lose by 14. Now they're
going to Minnesota. No Devin A. Chan, sadly. He's their
best weapon. That Brian Flores blitz, this just feels like... Listen,
Minnesota's offense to Monza is dead last in a bunch
of categories. The offense has not been good and I'm
(27:40):
laying more than 10 points. I get that. I feel
like Minnesota's defense is almost, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (27:47):
What Miami could finish with like three points.
Speaker 1 (27:49):
Yes, absolutely. And Minnesota, you know, you know what? Touchdown
genie throw in their Minnesota defense special teams. Like this
feels like a game. One of them scores, um, Miami's
the only the third team since 2002 to score fewer
than 14 points per game in the first three games
(28:11):
and lose by an average of more than 14 points
per game. The Chiefs did not play well last week
and won by 14. I'll take Minnesota minus the 10
and a half. And last but not least.
Speaker 2 (28:23):
We got Kansas City minus four and a half at Vegas.
You'll be there for this one.
Speaker 1 (28:29):
I will be there for this one. We talked about
Mahomes 13-2 against the Raiders. Mahomes and Reed have the
most wins of any coach-quarterback combo in that stadium, Demase.
They only get to play there once a year.
Speaker 2 (28:42):
Think about that.
Speaker 1 (28:44):
Well, that's, you know, when they host the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (28:47):
Wait, no, the stadium's not new.
Speaker 1 (28:50):
I mean, it's new-ish. I think it's 10, let me see, Allegiant,
I think Stadium Wiki. Allegiant Stadium opened in... When did
it open? Gosh darn it. 2017, eight years ago.
Speaker 2 (29:06):
Yeah, they do play them once a year. A lot
of teams don't play them once in the season.
Speaker 1 (29:13):
No, but you know who plays there eight or nine
times a year? The Raiders. Reed and Mahomes have more
wins than any Raiders coach-quarterback combo in that state of it. Copy.
Speaker 2 (29:25):
That was not what I heard in the beginning. That's insane.
Speaker 1 (29:28):
Andy has.
If Andy wins this game, he has won more games
in that stadium than any other head coach, including Raiders
head coaches. Patrick already has only... Derek Carr has more
wins in that stadium than Patrick, which is, he has 11,
Patrick has six. I think the Chiefs have an elite
(29:50):
offense again, so I don't mind laying four and a
half on the road. I think the Raiders are going
to be able to score, but I think the Chiefs
are going to score 30. So this feels to me
like 30 to 24, 31 to 23, something in that range.
So I'll lay the four and a half with Kansas City.
So my five picks coming off of four in one week,
(30:14):
Buffalo laying six and a half at home against New England.
Jacksonville getting 2.5 at Cincinnati. The Jets getting 3.5 at Chicago.
Minnesota laying 10.5 at home against Miami. And the Chiefs
laying 4.5 in Las Vegas. We will get to touchdown
Genie and DeManzi's teaser in a moment. But first, Boost
(30:34):
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For full offer details, visit BoostMobile.com. All right, Demanze, touchdown genie.
Last week, I failed everyone.
Speaker 2 (31:14):
Last week you had Emmitt Johnson. It was at 21%.
That was– he's just not getting his reps yet. It's
Kenneth Walker time.
Speaker 1 (31:20):
No, he's not getting his reps yet. A defensive touchdown
in the Minnesota-Miami game. It seems like it's for either side.
Speaker 2 (31:31):
You know what?
Speaker 1 (31:31):
I'm all right with that because Kyler, you know, could
screw it up. It's 28%. So you get a little
worse than 3-1. Lock that in. Defensive special team touchdown, Minnesota, Miami.
Now let's get to the main. Go ahead. What were
you about to say?
Speaker 2 (31:45):
What odds do you think you would get on calling
a safety for a game? That's got to be pretty
good odds. Oh, yeah.
Speaker 1 (31:51):
I mean, 11%. So you get nine to one.
Speaker 2 (31:55):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (31:56):
So nine to one. That feels like not good enough. Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 2 (32:01):
So last week, Seattle got me. I had a three-team
eight-point teaser. It was Kansas City minus two and a
half covered. Las Vegas, plus 11.5, covered. Seattle, just had
to pick them. Who could have saw that one coming?
But we got week four, three-team, seven-and-a-half-point teaser. We got Indy.
(32:23):
We're going to go up to plus four. Baltimore, minus three.
And then Carolina up to plus 11. I've never started
these years off 0-4, so this is a big week
for me. And those trail in the teaser. But, yeah.
That's where we're going with week four.
Speaker 1 (32:40):
Can I just ask you a favor here?
Speaker 2 (32:43):
What is it?
Speaker 1 (32:44):
Because you've always done eight pointers. And now it's a
seven and a half pointer.
Speaker 2 (32:49):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (32:50):
Can I convince you to go back to the eight
pointer so you can get Baltimore minus two and a half?
Is that something I can convince you to do here?
Let's just add a half point to all these.
Speaker 2 (33:03):
So the half point, I do think that there's a
thing with Polymarket.
Speaker 1 (33:09):
No, I understand. Right. But you can. No, no, no.
That's what I'm saying. So you're doing a seven and
a half point teaser. I'm adjusting this for you. You're
getting Indy plus four and a half. You're getting Baltimore
minus two and a half. And you're getting Carolina plus
11 and a half. It doesn't really matter for any.
There we go. In Carolina, he has 11 and a half.
(33:31):
That's fine. It doesn't really matter for anything except for Baltimore.
But it just, it just, it's only a tiny bit
more juice. And you might as well get Baltimore through three.
Speaker 2 (33:41):
I'll take it.
Speaker 1 (33:43):
I mean, if we're going to be teased, listen, I
have to give you a C on this because you're
teasing into the Colts from three and minus three and
a half plus four and a half. I don't love that.
We got to go.
Speaker 2 (33:52):
We got to take some different strategies.
Speaker 1 (33:53):
You got to shake the snow globe.
Speaker 2 (33:55):
I agree.
Speaker 1 (33:56):
Ignore me. Who cares? I agree. You got to get
a win. I'm rooting for you. There's our polymarket combo
teaser of the week.
Speaker 3 (34:03):
All right.
Speaker 1 (34:03):
What's the offer?
Speaker 2 (34:05):
So you said the off-rad bad mojo last week. The
Chargers had even worse mojo. The Bills to win and
Herbert plus one plus interception at 35%. That did hit.
Speaker 1 (34:15):
That hit, and I turned it down.
Speaker 2 (34:18):
This week we're going to go with a little bit
of revenge for Derrick Henry. Two plus touchdowns at 28%.
Against his former team. The Titans, yes.
Speaker 1 (34:31):
I don't love it. but because you guys gave me
a winning offer last week and I turned it down,
I'll take it. So I've got a defensive score in
the Dolphins-Vikings game at 28% and Derrick Henry to score
multiple touchdowns at 28%. Whatever. Sign me up. Big shout
(34:54):
out to Polymarket and to Boost Mobile. Big shout out
to Blue Duck and to Volumes. Enjoy the games. If
you're in Vegas this weekend, say hello if you see me.
If you're at the game, say hello if you see me. Otherwise,
I'll see you guys on TV Monday and back here
on Tuesday. What's right?
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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