Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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Speaker 2 (00:23):
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Speaker 1 (00:29):
Welcome inside. Happy Tuesday. The Jason Smith Show with my
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(00:53):
here we are, officially, NFL Eve. Yay! We have made it.
We are on the cusp. We are less than 24
hours away of breaking down the first NFL game of
the season. And because... We have an overseas game. We
have a game on Wednesday. We have a game on Thursday.
Pretty soon. Hey, the opening week is going to be Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday.
(01:18):
We can take it every single day.
Speaker 3 (01:20):
But here's the problem for Roger Goodell. Congratulations on that
contract extension. And the NFL is that you... You got
to make sure that this really doesn't work out well
for the Rams because you know what? You'd like for
your NFL teams to show up more than eight hours
before a game to maybe promote your product, shake hands,
(01:41):
kiss babies, especially when you're going to go all the
way across the globe.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
Well, I think that's going to be something where Roger
Goodell said, you know what? Oversight? Not happening again. From
now on, we're playing overseas. You're going to be required
to be there for this day to push that. Oversight? Oh,
it's okay. We'll take care of it. Make it official.
The next CBA, whatever we want to do. That's what
we're going to do. That's how it's going to be.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
I mean, unless they had a bunch of official forms
they filled out problems of all the things that might
try to kill them in Australia.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
So they wanted to spend as little time as possible.
There's no shortage of things that can kill you there.
The spiders, the animals. I think just flying in from
the airport like Rodan can come in and just like
Grab the plane and just kind of take it places. Wow,
that just went next level right there. Yeah, that's what
Godzilla for.
Speaker 3 (02:25):
You're going to start listing off spiders and snakes and sharks.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
Nope, went straight to Rodan.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
Now, because we are here, we got big news on
the Rams 49ers game coming up in a second. Let
me just say this because we got to get this
out of the way. This week is going to be
a bad week for science.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
For science.
Speaker 1 (02:44):
Yeah, it's going to be a bad week for science.
And I don't mean like a bad in discovering things.
I don't mean like that, like we're not going to
discover things or figuring out cures for things.
Speaker 3 (02:52):
No, I thought you were just kicking everybody out the
labs and giving them a couple of days off.
Speaker 1 (02:57):
No, this is going to be a bad week for science, right?
Because you know, and specifically the sport of sleep science. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Because surrounding this game in Australia- The 49ers have been
in Australia since early June to acclimate and be ready
for the game, right? They got there last week, right?
They were also trying to get away from the substation.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
Right.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Well, that's true.
Speaker 3 (03:19):
So a few extra days might get whatever is leeching
into their systems out.
Speaker 1 (03:24):
Yeah, but they got there a week ago. They want
to acclimate. They want to make sure they're ready to go.
We're ready for the game.
Speaker 3 (03:31):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
The Rams are taking the exact opposite where they're going to,
I think, actually fly in and they're going to land
an hour before the game and they're going to go
play and they're going to get on the plane right after.
They're going to spend less than 72 hours in Australia overall.
They're waiting until the last possible second to leave tomorrow
(03:53):
to go play this game on Saturday. Thursday, okay? This
is why this is going to be a bad week
for science, because you know the 49ers, they went to
all the experts possible, right? Everybody, Silicon Valley, Bay Area, hey,
what's the best thing to do? What's the best way?
You know they had people both sides of the aisle saying, hey,
(04:15):
do this, do this, do this. And whatever experts they
talked to told them, No, you need to get there
a week early. You need to acclimate. You need to
get your sleep patterns on, and you need to get
used to everything. Now, I know you worry about jet
lag and being there a long time, and it's going
to catch up with your body, but the benefits of
getting there a week early far outweigh getting there later, right?
Because you know all teams do that. What do we do?
(04:36):
They made a big deal. This is a big deal.
First game of the season. We have to play here.
What do we do? You know, the Rams did the
exact same thing. They talked to the experts and said, okay,
what do we do? And whatever sleep science experts they
had told them, you know what? I know getting there
and acclimating is probably, but the best thing to do
is to treat it like a, you get there, you
get in, you play, you get out. So you fly
(04:58):
the day before and you stay as little as possible
and you fly back. So it's going to be a
bad day for science because these two teams went and
asked why What should we do? And they got two
complete and total opposite answers that you could possibly get
on this topic. Once I know you actually go and
you stay, you stay, get there as soon as possible. One.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
Nope.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
You wait until the last minute and get there. Okay, great.
Cause someone's going to be right. And someone's going to
be wrong. And we're not going to know anything. Well,
and that's the worst of it. We got to know stuff. Like,
science should be... I get that science is a way of, hey,
it's trial and error, and you keep going until you
figure something out, right? This is how all cures for
things are figured out and solutions, right? But this is,
we're not going to find out anything. Because if the
(05:39):
Niners win, people are going to say, well... It was
their way to do it.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
Or the Rams didn't care.
Speaker 1 (05:45):
If the Rams win, it's going to be, well, the
Rams are the right way. But do we really know
that's the right way? You needed both teams to go
on the same way. Okay, who's it going to work?
So we're not going to know anything because in the end,
one team's going to be right, one team's going to
be wrong, and we're not going to know what this had.
So science is going to have a bad week this
week because you want to be proven right at some point. Hey,
we're on the right track. We're finding here. How many
(06:06):
times do you see in the movie when they say,
I need years, I need years. Oh, you don't have years.
You've got to find the cure for this radioactive spider
in the next 10 minutes. Oh, I can't have it.
What if I give you $ 15 billion? All right, I'll
do what I can. So science is going to have
a bad week, man. Bad week.
Speaker 3 (06:21):
You can do it just on the micro of your family.
You've traveled abroad. Did all three of you respond the
same way? No.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
No, right?
Speaker 1 (06:29):
Well, when we went to the UK two years ago,
we decided, hey, what should we do? Because we're flying
overnight and we're landing. What do we do? Well, let's
hit the ground running and let's go do the day
and then we'll be tired and we'll go to sleep early.
We'll get on the clock right away. Awesome. We land.
We land at Heathrow. Now, we have to stay at
Heathrow for like an hour because there was a bomb
(06:51):
threat of some kind.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
Oh, there you go.
Speaker 1 (06:53):
And we were waiting to get off the plane, waiting, waiting.
But anyway, so we land at like 8.30, 9 o'clock. Yeah, yeah,
we're feeling good, feeling good, feeling good. By noon, we
were all done. We were all done. I have pictures
of all of us because then I fell asleep. We're
all sitting on a bus going out to the Warner
Brothers lot where they shot all the Harry Potter movies, right?
We're going out there to go see everything. And we're
(07:13):
on the bus, and we all just collapse. And I go, well,
I guess getting up and raring to go, that was
the wrong thing to do. We should have got in
and gone to take naps and then come out and
be ready to raring to go.
Speaker 3 (07:25):
In the afternoon at some time. But that's just it, right?
I'm really good at sleeping on planes. You give me
a much longer flight, it's the longest night of sleep
I'm ever going to get.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
It's like a.
Speaker 2 (07:34):
Week condensed into a night. So I'm ready to go.
Speaker 3 (07:37):
Rest of the family, not necessarily as much. Likewise, I
got to imagine I'd love to see the Subruder film
from these flights going overseas. How many guys can't get
comfortable and fall asleep and are tossing and turning and whatever?
I mean, they've got the best of amenities and all
of those things, but you have no idea how you're
going to respond in a day. But it's great. It's
(08:00):
great theoretical work that we'll get to see. Rip apart,
however it goes.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
I mean.
Speaker 2 (08:06):
You don't need to be there a week.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
Either way, I do believe the NFL biffed it by
not having the Rams forced to go.
Speaker 1 (08:14):
Like I said, I think Roger... Okay, you know what? Oversight.
This way, okay, oversight. And we're going to fix that
for next time.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
But.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
I mean, look, if I have to err on the
side of one of these, I would say, well, you
probably want to meet in the middle, right? I feel
like I should have a hot take on this. But
I don't think flying the day before is the right thing.
I don't think that long flight and trying to recover
and staying hydrated and getting on and then playing a game,
I don't think that's the right thing. I also don't
(08:42):
think going there for a whole week is the right
thing because then are you still going to have your edge?
Are you going to be ready to play the game
and go home? We've been here for too long. I
think if you get there, I think the right thing is, hey,
you get there three-ish days before. That way you have time,
you get used to your rhythms, you have a couple
of practices, and by the time you are at your peak,
you're playing the game, right? Because I think the Niners
(09:03):
have been there too long and the Rams won't be
there long enough. So I think the right thing is, okay,
we really want to be there. Because when you go
on vacation, sometimes it takes you a day or two
to get used to the The surroundings, a day or
two to get used to the time clock. You're sleeping late.
You're waking up early. So I think really, honestly, the
best thing is meeting in the middle because you want
to be sharp, but you don't want to go too long. Really,
(09:25):
it's a difficult thing and it's impossible. But if I
had to... if i had to lean one way or
the other i would say i'd rather be the team
that's there for a few days than to go and
feel like i'm rushing because it's hanging over your head
if you know people forget about that mental part the
travel it's hanging over your head where we're going to
go out it's going to be the day before there's
so many things we got to do just right to
get to this game the next day whereas if you
(09:45):
get there a week ahead okay well if something comes
up we can troubleshoot things figure stuff out you have
more time you have more time to go So I'd
say if I had to say on who I think
is doing it right, I would say the 49ers. But
I mean, really, honestly, I think they're there a little
too long. Well, you could air express anything that your
equipment guy forgot. you know, creature comforts from home, all
(10:05):
of those things. And we'll just figure out where it
meets in the middle, right? Because everybody would say going
into the year and the betting line certainly suggests that
the Rams are the far superior team, right? The 49ers
are older and blah, blah, blah. You know, we're going
to see Nick Bosa. We're going to see George Kittle
most likely. But maybe it evens things out.
Speaker 3 (10:28):
A groggy Rams team helps level the playing field so
we get a better product.
Speaker 1 (10:34):
I mean, really, I want to say that, really, it's
just bad week for science.
Speaker 3 (10:42):
Science, man. But the fact that we're leading the show
talking about science. Science won right there.
Speaker 1 (10:48):
Yes. If we could get Bill Nye on to break
it down. But then he would tell us something. You
can get another expert to come on and say, no, no,
that's completely wrong. I'm like... When I see stuff like this,
I go, how did we ever go forward with stuff science-wise?
Speaker 3 (11:00):
I read multiple articles about the whole sleep science, and
they were all over the place.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
How have we done this? Yeah, but in the end,
each individual is going to respond how they respond.
Speaker 3 (11:08):
I'm like, so why did we spend millions of dollars
on your research and in your lab?
Speaker 1 (11:13):
Now, I will say the right thing, the other right
thing out of this story, big story today, Aaron Donald
not traveling to Australia. He will not play. opening week
for the Rams as he ramps up to get ready
to play. This is the right call. As I have said,
the Rams are handling this wrong. I don't need to
see him until the middle of the season. And I
know they gave him $ 20 million because if I'm going
(11:35):
to come out of retirement, you got to pay me
$ 20 million, but you want him to be ready to
go when it's the most important time of the season.
And the guy's been out of the NFL for two years.
You could talk to me about practicing and staying in shape,
but the guy's going to hit the wall and we're
going to get to a point where he's going to
be irrelevant because he's out of gas. The best players
in the world leaving the game for two plus years,
(11:56):
it's going to have an effect on you. Every single
player that hasn't played for two years, they don't come back.
You're not the same guy. You want to just be
close to the version you were when you left. If
I'm the Rams, yes, stay home. We're not going to
worry about seeing him. Talk to me about Aaron Donald
after Halloween. Get me there, because if he plays seven,
eight games, then he's really rolling. You're going to get
the next best part of him in the playoffs when
(12:18):
he should be peaking, and you're not nearly playing a
whole year. So this was a great decision. It should
be even more. We should not be seeing him until
after Halloween at the earliest.
Speaker 3 (12:27):
No, this is the buffet at your Super Bowl party,
wherever you go. If you go out somewhere or if
you have it catered in. That's the whole point of
Aaron Donald is you already had the team to get
you there. He's the guy that shows and says, surprise,
I got something a little extra.
Speaker 2 (12:45):
So week one, even though.
Speaker 3 (12:46):
It's a division game and all of this, it's the
only thing that, you know, it counters McVay and everybody. Oh, yeah,
all our guys are there. Well, that got everybody excited.
It's like, yeah, except him. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
Yeah. I'm telling you, man, this is a decision that
the Rams really have to look at and say, are
we doing the right thing if we come back and
we ramp them up and we put them out there
in the middle of September? right, when the temperature's 90-some-odd
degrees and we're playing, I think he's a guy you
can wait and see. Because, look, even when this happened,
(13:19):
when Roger Clemens would come back and he would say, oh,
look at him, he's being able to push his return
whenever he wants to. The guy's in his 40s. The
guy knows I'm not going to start 35 games and
be ready to go in the playoffs. I want to
be able to be at my best in the playoffs.
I also don't want to play the entire year, but
I also want to make sure that I am rolling
at my best, right? For everybody, this should be the
(13:40):
way things are done. When you get older, I don't
get what the Rams are doing with the Donald and
the whole thing that he could be playing from the beginning.
What are they doing?
Speaker 3 (13:47):
Well, look, you like to sell even more hope. Not
that you needed much more when you're already the Super
Bowl favorite.
Speaker 1 (13:53):
You signed Miles Garrett. You just brought in 20-some-odd sacks.
Hope is an easy sell if you're the Rams. But say, hey,
you've got this, but what if you think we need
one more? Could they have pulled it off without the
little guy in Ocean's Eleven?
Speaker 2 (14:06):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (14:07):
I mean, who's getting in that vault? But you look
at just the trend that we've had going on many years.
You bring up Clemens, keep going on down the line
in the NFL. Oh, that guy's got a contract thing. Yeah,
he just doesn't want to be at camp. That guy's
got an injury and he's healthy. We'll be ready for
week one. Yeah, he's ready for week one.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
Right, Christy Gonzalez.
Speaker 1 (14:27):
Guess what?
Speaker 3 (14:28):
We'll see him on Wednesday night. All summer long, it's like, ah,
he's got this contract dispute and he's hurt. Oh, wait.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
Oh, wait.
Speaker 3 (14:36):
The contract got resolved and he's ready to play on
Wednesday night?
Speaker 1 (14:41):
Oh, okay. And go on down the line. Plenty of examples.
Exit out of Fresca, exit Swollen Dome. Jason Smith, Mike
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(15:02):
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of your screen. So you can lock it in. Head
rip the knob off. Coming up next, a quarterback got paid.
Was it the right call? And we pick the opening
game of the NFL season tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
Keep it right here.
Speaker 1 (15:20):
A big football night ahead. Jason and Mike, Fox Sports Radio.
Speaker 2 (15:24):
Take the Jets to lose.
Speaker 1 (15:26):
Well, yeah, yeah. That's an easy one. We go a
little bit more, a little bit deeper than that. So
the Jets to lose, all of them. They'll win three times.
We'll go all through the 17 games. Coming up. Two, three.
Three at least.
Speaker 3 (15:40):
Three.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
Be sure to catch live editions of the Jason Smith
Show with Mike Harmon weekdays at 10 p.m. Eastern, 7 p.m. Pacific.
Speaker 1 (15:49):
Fox Sports Radio, the Jason Smith Show with my best friend,
Mike Harmon.
Speaker 2 (15:53):
Buon Giorno.
Speaker 1 (15:54):
You missed any of today's show, be sure to catch
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You'll find today's full show and a best-of version posted
right after we get off the air. We are here
(16:14):
on NFL Eve. Again, we are less than 24 hours
away from breaking down the first live NFL game of
the season.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (16:23):
Stop.
Speaker 3 (16:25):
J-E-T-E.
Speaker 2 (16:25):
Stop, Frostberg.
Speaker 1 (16:27):
Stop.
Speaker 3 (16:27):
Why did you say it in the cadence of that
woman screaming while tormenting that poor man?
Speaker 1 (16:36):
Stop. Stop. He's not started yet. But before we get
to that, we'll give you our pick. Tomorrow we get
the Super Bowl rematch to kick things off. Baker Mayfield today.
closed one of the surprise stories of the offseason in
the NFL by reaching a three-year, $ 165 million contract extension
(16:56):
with the Bucs. So that's $ 55 million a year for
Baker Mayfield. First things first. This is a good deal.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
It's a good deal.
Speaker 1 (17:04):
$ 55 million. I know the sticker shock for fans, but
$ 55 million is what a Tier 2 quarterback makes now.
That's how fast it's gone up. That's what Trevor Lawrence did. Hey,
if Trevor Lawrence is getting $ 55 million a year, and boy,
he's really not that good, I should be getting that.
$ 55 million a year is what you are spending now
(17:25):
on a Tier 2 quarterback. Not Tier 1 quarterback. but
tier two quarterbacks and Baker Mayfield is a top tier
two quarterback. The guy's got a hundred touchdowns the last
three years. You can do a hell of a lot
worse at quarterback. He's not someone that, well, as he ages,
you're going to see his effect, his effectiveness go down. No,
this is a guy that can play at a pretty
high level through his thirties into his mid thirties. It's
(17:46):
a three-year deal. I know the sticker shot can't pay 55.
Speaker 2 (17:49):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (17:49):
There's certain guys. I'm not going to give Gino Smith
$ 55 million a year, But Baker Mayfield, $ 55 million, the
guy has proven he's a really good quarterback in this system.
It works in Tampa. And again, he's got the production
the last three years to go along with the contract.
So I know it seems weird, but this is what works,
and Baker Mayfield is worth it.
Speaker 3 (18:09):
Yeah, I would have understood if they'd have written it out, right,
and they didn't get back to the negotiating table because— Well,
let's face it, unless they win with some kind of
margin and with a playoff run, there's been a lot
of talk of whether they'd change out the coaching staff.
When we know if you do that, perhaps bringing in
(18:30):
a new quarterback is the way you want to go. Instead,
you get the three for 165. He wasn't going to
negotiate into the year. And what did we hear after
that was, well, I like Baker now because he's got
a chip on his shoulder. He doesn't have Mike Evans anymore.
But he's got a chip on his shoulder. Okay, I'll
work with that. He's also in a division that they
should be able to go and dominate. Right? It's... At
(18:57):
least in theory, it's a two-team race. As we look
at it, we'll talk about the New Orleans Saints, I'm sure,
a lot as the season gets going.
Speaker 1 (19:04):
But you look at Baker Mayfield, he's been as consistent
as anybody.
Speaker 3 (19:08):
And it's really scary when you do look at what
that next-year quarterbacks are, the number of guys that are
making $ 50 to $ 55 million. I was like, yeah, that
kind of flew under the radar there. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
Like, Lawrence.
Speaker 3 (19:20):
Got a lot of run because, well, people still had
a question of whether he was going to be that guy.
Speaker 1 (19:26):
He was taken number one overall. We have to give
him a lot of money. Yeah, okay, okay, okay.
Speaker 3 (19:32):
Sometimes folks get sucked in on that.
Speaker 1 (19:35):
Mayfield is self-motivated. He plays the chip on his shoulder. Hey,
we're going to keep him that way to keep him upset.
But I don't feel like Mayfield's just going to suddenly
mail it in and we're going to see a big
downtick on him.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
It was too much work to get to that spot.
Are you kidding me? He was a jet.
Speaker 1 (19:51):
And the thing is now, you're looking at the quarterbacks
that are going to come up for contract extensions as
early as next year. And this is where you're going
to get to where these guys are going to get
65 to 75 million a year. You're talking about Caleb Williams,
who had an incredible last year. Drake Mays already been
to the Super Bowl, right? Jaden Daniels, if he has
another big year. Bo Nix, you're going to get up
(20:12):
to 75 million a year for a quarterback at the
top level. My prediction of an NFL quarterback making $ 100
million a year by 2030 is going to go down
to the wire. That thing is going to go down
to the wire. Let's say Caleb Williams, take him for example,
because he's going to be the big guy coming up
this year. He has a big year. He's going to
(20:34):
sign a contract extension that's going to pay him probably
somewhat close to $ 75 million. And so, okay, so now
2027 offseason, we got $ 75 million. You get to 2030 when,
if Caleb Williams has another three really good years, and
all of a sudden it's like, well, he's up again, okay,
$ 100 million. Because by that time, somebody's going to get
Joe Burrow, he'll get $ 85 million. It's going to go
(20:55):
down to the wire for $ 100 million a year quarterback
by 2030. And it's not going to be $ 100 million
a year for seven years. It'll be like this. I
think teams are going to be really confident about with
giving quarterbacks more money for lesser time. It's not going
to be, we signed this guy for seven years and
$ 280 million. You're not going to see that because nobody
(21:16):
wants to get stuck Like the Browns got stuck with
Deshaun Watts and all. So I think teams are going
to say, listen, we'll give you a lot of money
for three years. And that's going to kind of be
the norm to try to get more than that out
of a team at any position is going to be
really difficult. So I think that's going to really help
push it up a little bit more. If you're going to,
we're only going to go three years. I want to
be okay.
Speaker 3 (21:36):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (21:36):
80 million a year. Okay.
Speaker 3 (21:37):
Sure.
Speaker 1 (21:37):
80 million. That's fine. 80 million a year. That's great.
85 and a, It's going to come down to the
wire at 2030. We're talking about four more off-seasons to
make it happen.
Speaker 3 (21:46):
Yeah, right now you've got on the books for this year,
the number one guy is Mahomes at $ 64 million. Then
you've got Dak and a few others. But, yeah, to
your point, the shorter contract is the better way to
go for everybody, right? If you're the quarterback, you get
back into the marketplace. And if you're at a crossroads
with the team, then you go make your money. Obviously,
(22:06):
there's a little bit of the downside of you don't perform,
and now there's no massive market for you. But for
the team, you're also protected if it does go south,
that you don't have to do a, I don't know,
two-year stretch of, what was it, $ 100 million for Tua Tungabailoa?
Speaker 1 (22:22):
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 3 (22:23):
Again, we still suggested on this show that it should
have been a one-year take. And obviously, I put Baker
as part of the failure of the Jets, conflating him,
of course, with his classmate, Sam Darnold, both of whom
have escaped Cleveland and the Jets and have now gone
on to make gobs of money and have great success.
Speaker 1 (22:42):
Escape from the Jets. I barely got out in time, man.
I left a lot of good people behind and had
contract extensions and had to stay. It was really bad, man.
Why am I talking like Bill Paxton in Aliens? Hey, man,
if you're keeping track, we're getting our asses kicked, man.
Speaker 3 (22:59):
But those guys that chose to take the money and stayed,
eventually they might be able to pull a Miles Garrett
and get to a place where they can win.
Speaker 1 (23:07):
Yeah. Right?
Speaker 2 (23:07):
Remember? Because he signed his deal.
Speaker 1 (23:09):
It's like, what are you doing? Yeah. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
I got out. I got out. He had a master plan.
I got a master plan. One more year.
Speaker 2 (23:16):
But how?
Speaker 1 (23:17):
Trust me. Trust me. I know what I'm doing.
Speaker 3 (23:19):
Wait for it.
Speaker 1 (23:19):
All right, all right. Follow my- Fine, fine, fine. He's
going to be giving me an infomercial.
Speaker 3 (23:23):
Fine, fine, fine. He's trying to get out of that-
Long-term commitment? Let me tell you.
Speaker 1 (23:28):
So the Baker Mayfield, good deal, great, smart. Again, $ 100
million a year by 2030. It's going to come right
down to it. Now, getting to tomorrow's game. Patriots, Seahawks,
Super Bowl rematch. We're ready to go. Injury news today.
Travion Henderson, who hasn't practiced in a couple of weeks,
(23:48):
out for the Patriots. Meanwhile, Seattle could be without two
of their top three safeties. Going into the game tomorrow night.
Conventional wisdom, and I hear it all the time. The
Patriots are going to have a bad year. They're going
to come back to the middle. The Seahawks are really good. Yeah,
they're solid all the way through. I understand both sides
of that. I think both sides are wrong. I think
(24:11):
the Seahawks aren't nearly going to be as good as
people think they are. and the Patriots are still going
to be good. Why suddenly are they just going to
come back to the pack? Well, they had an easy
schedule last year. Okay, an easy schedule, but they made
it to the Super Bowl. They're not going to go from,
we went to the Super Bowl, now we're 5-12. That's
not what the Patriots are. They have a really good quarterback.
(24:31):
They brought in the No. 1 receiver they needed to have.
This is a really good team. They gave Christian Gonzalez,
got paid. He's going to be happy as hell tomorrow
night covering Jackson Smith and Jigba, who he blanketed in
the Super Bowl. The one thing you could say for
the Seahawks is that Boy, JSN did not have a
big Super Bowl. Tomorrow night, I know the Pats are
going to miss Travion Henderson, but Ramondre Stevenson is still
(24:51):
a pretty good running back, and he would still be
the No. 1 guy there if he just didn't fumble
so much.
Speaker 2 (24:55):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (24:56):
But it doesn't matter because I'm telling you how tomorrow's
going to go. I feel like this is going to
be the upset that we had three years ago where
I told you the Lions were going to go into
Kansas City on Monday night. to open the season and win.
That was my year to pick them to go to
the Super Bowl. And they fell one game short. Not
my fault. Way to go, Dan Campbell. But I see
(25:17):
tomorrow night, tomorrow night, the Patriots, look, they've been itching
to play football ever since the Vrabel scandal broke. And
this is going to be a case of where, yes,
the Travion Henderson injury is going to hurt them a
little bit. but not as much because they're going to
come out and it is going to be an air
raid tomorrow night. Drake May is going to throw the
football all over the field. The Seahawks being without their
(25:38):
top two safeties or two of their top three safeties
is going to be just as big a deal. Forget about, oh,
can the Patriots run the football? They are going to
throw it up and down the field. They're going to
want to unwrap their new offense, their new weapons for
Drake May. And I'll take the Patriots in an upset.
It's three, three and a half points. You give me
the points, but I won't need them because the Patriots,
they're going to get out there and score a couple
(25:59):
of touchdowns early. The defense will play well enough, and
they'll win this game in somewhat of a shocker over
the Seahawks opening night. Give me the Pats and Drake May.
with big-time offense, 300 yards for May, and a couple
of touchdowns.
Speaker 3 (26:11):
Yeah, he completed over 70% of his passes, 20-plus error
last year, according to the quick search. 44.5 is your total,
as you said, either 3 or 3 in the hook,
depending on where you're shopping. No Travian Henderson on one side.
Kenneth Walker III is off to the aforementioned Kansas City
Chiefs meeting. Jadarian Price now takes over as the No. 1.
(26:33):
Charbonnet starts the season on the pup list, so one
of those where you're trying to get healthy as the
season goes on at that position. I think the big
thing is you brought in two big-time wide receivers. They
paid Dobbs a lot of money. to come in as well, right?
So you look at new lease on life, honeymoon period
(26:54):
with Brown. You've got Dobbs. You've got offensive line that
should be able to hold up. So, yeah, I find
it hard to dismiss what the Pats are overall. As
many are doing the over under still 10 and a
half wins on the season. Cause remember they do play
four against the jets.
Speaker 1 (27:13):
They do. They're going to be five and one in
the division. That's what people forget is that in the division,
you'll be five and one. You'll split with the bills.
Most likely you'll beat the jets twice. You beat the
dolphins twice. So you're coming out of the division five
and one. So what, what, how really far are they
going to regress? I think, I think too many people
got caught up in, they have an easy schedule. They
took advantage of it. They took advantage of injuries in
(27:33):
the playoffs last year to get to the Superbowl. I
understand that. But this is still a really good team
that was just in the bleep in Super Bowl. They're
still going to be really good, and they still have
one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. Drake May,
the way he goes through his progressions and finds the
right guy all the time is just, for a young
quarterback to have that kind of presence of mind, like,
they've been waiting for this rematch for a long time.
(27:55):
I'll say 27-17. 300 yards and at least two touchdowns
for Drake. I like that. Right at the number. 44
and a half. Take the under. You like that, right? Yeah,
right there. Right at the number.
Speaker 2 (28:06):
Be sure to catch live editions of the Jason Smith
Show with Mike Harmon weekdays at 10 p.m. Eastern, 7 p.m.
Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 1 (28:17):
Fox Sports Radio. The Jason Smith Show with my best friend,
Mike Harmon.
Speaker 2 (28:21):
Well-dressed hobo.
Speaker 1 (28:23):
I always like to look at some stories and say,
you know, I don't know what the twists and turns
are going to be, but I'm going to tell you
how a story is going to end. Okay. And generally,
I have a pretty good sense of that. And... When
this entire controversy with players coming back from the NFL
into college football broke, we found out that LSU wanted
(28:44):
to take a couple of players back, and this was
going to put them at odds with the rest of
college football and the SEC. I said, how's it going
to end? I said, look, I don't know where the
twists and turns are going to take it, but it's
going to end with these guys not playing. Because there's
going to be too much controversy. There might be too
much unknown information. none of these guys are going to
wind up playing. You're going to get teams that are
(29:06):
going to say, we refuse to play you if you
play these guys. Look at Daquan Wright and a couple
of players that want to come back. Lane Kiffin wanted
to return to LSU. It's going to end. None of
these guys are going to play. And that's kind of
where we are. Because earlier today, the crazy-ass story that
the SEC was going to meet on Thursday to discuss
(29:26):
kicking LSU out of the SEC is, for bringing in
players who played in the NFL. This is like, apparently
all you got to do is do something that they
don't like and we can kick you out of the
conference entirely. like that's not hey we have to get
a lot of evidence it's got to build up over
years no no no we don't like these you want
to bring these two guys back we're gonna kick you
(29:48):
out of the conference.
Speaker 3 (29:49):
Well, look, it's something we actually broached, not the expulsion,
but certainly reprimands and strong-arm tactics when it comes down
to just LSU in the building. They voted with the block, right?
The 16-0 block of, hey, we don't think this is right.
(30:10):
But did they ever stop Lane Kiffin from pursuing the
course of action? No.
Speaker 2 (30:16):
They could have killed that long ago.
Speaker 1 (30:18):
But Part of the.
Speaker 3 (30:20):
Organization is looking around going, you know, if this actually
breaks right and we can get a couple of extra
viable players that push us that much better in a
crowded conference.
Speaker 1 (30:32):
Why not? So outwardly, they were saying all the right things. No,
this is abhorrent. This is terrible.
Speaker 3 (30:38):
Behind the scenes, like, hey, he's suing, and they're going
back into courts, and Lane's out there just as the
champion of all this. Like, they could have stopped it.
Speaker 2 (30:48):
They didn't.
Speaker 3 (30:49):
So the SEC says, well, here, now we're in charge. See,
someone wants to be in charge, something you always say.
Speaker 1 (30:57):
The fact they were going to meet with kicking LSU
out of the conference for these two players. But now,
as you heard Steve DeSegar talk about in his update
a few minutes ago, LSU is going to fill their
roster with a couple of other players that aren't either
of the NFL players. which means they can't add to
their roster this year, which means these players are what?
(31:18):
Not going to play in college football, right? It's not
going to happen. So here's the threat of we can
kick you out of the conference, and I'm glad that
cooler heads prevail that, okay, let's just, you know, this
is a stupid story anyway. I don't know why college
football melted down over this. I feel like, I don't
know why this was given such incredible, the weight and
(31:41):
the heft that it had, but it did. I mean,
so I was, you know, so, but here we are,
but I'm glad that now this ends and look, I
get it. I feel bad for the kids. Hey, I do.
We get a chance to come back and maybe my
last gas to make money because I'm not making an
NFL roster and I can make some NIL money. I
can play football one more time, but yeah, You go
to the NFL, that's kind of how life works. And
(32:01):
if this is what the college football wants, is to
have players that can't come back, okay. Like, I get it.
I don't think anything is unreasonable in this rule. I
just can't believe, A, that it got this intense, and B,
it got to the point where... They were going to
have a meeting to remove LSU. Like, was it going
to be the ADs? Was it all the college football coaches?
(32:23):
Raise your hand if you want to kick LSU out
of the SEC. Dabo, you're not in the SEC. You
can't vote. You can't vote, man. How'd you even get
the call-in number?
Speaker 2 (32:31):
You can't vote.
Speaker 1 (32:32):
What are you doing here? I'm sorry.
Speaker 2 (32:34):
I know.
Speaker 1 (32:34):
I know. Like, that's how crazy college football is. We
were at with, if these two kids play, we're going
to meet with kicking you out of the conference, man. Like, really,
I hope, and I hope against hope all the time,
as you said, we need leadership in college football. You
need a commissioner to come in to take care of
stuff like this. And maybe this is the case that
(32:54):
pushes it towards that. Because right now, Lane Kiffin is
the face of college football. All of the NIL and
transfer and seaminess and all the bad– controversial headlines in
the last couple of years. You see Lane Kiffin's picture
on TV. You go, yep, this is college football. This
is college football of 2026. It is Lane Kiffin driven.
That might be enough. Just seeing his face, that he's
(33:17):
the face of college football, might be enough for everybody
to say, okay, you know what? We need somebody to
get in here and really take the sport by the
reins and cull some stuff down. and figure out so
we're not just flying off the rails every five minutes.
Speaker 3 (33:30):
But we talk about it all the time in all sports, right?
Make sure you're always advancing your rules, right?
Speaker 1 (33:37):
You do it.
Speaker 3 (33:38):
If you're part of an HOA, in theory, you're doing
a yearly review on that. Within your own businesses, best practices,
the yearly reviews. We've got to do all of those
things to make sure you're FCC compliant and that we've
learned all the rules of the road, right? All of
those things as you go through. Same thing here is
that there was nothing to keep it. And the analogy
(34:03):
has always been used, right? The guardrails for college sports,
that it was just kind of a reactionary thing time
and again, and it just kept getting faster and faster and,
and they never looked ahead of the game, right?
Speaker 1 (34:17):
It was all right, I guess. Yeah. Okay.
Speaker 3 (34:20):
Payment of players, whatever. And then it just kept spiraling.
But as a group until now, You never had a
collective voice of, yeah, this is wrong. We shouldn't do this.
So Lane Kiffin was the villain we needed. Well, he's
not going anywhere.
Speaker 1 (34:35):
We still have the villain.
Speaker 2 (34:37):
Well, but he's going to give us the next iteration.
Speaker 1 (34:39):
This is not Darth Maul where, hey, you had a
great half a movie and now you're gone. This is
Darth Vader. We're going to get movies and movies and
movies out of him.
Speaker 3 (34:47):
Yeah, but Lane's got to win and not implode like
he has in other stops if this is going to work.
Speaker 1 (34:52):
Otherwise, he becomes Darth Maul. Exit out by the Fresca,
exit Swollen Dome. The latest breaking updates on the college
football story of the week next, Fox.