Mike's Minute: I'm confident for 2026

It probably came out on the wrong day to get the coverage it deserved, but one of the last pieces in the economic turnaround told us we are basically there. 

Consumer confidence is back, up six points to 98. It needs to be 100 or more for expansion, but it’s the highest figure since June and backs the business confidence, which last week was up a lot. 

Business comes first because they see the turnaround on sales. The spending numbers back that up because they are pretty real time and then you get confidence as a follow up, given although we are spending, some may not want to admit it may still feel like they are in a bit of a funk. 

But add it all together and the conclusion is inescapable. 

You can also add the ASB housing numbers if you want. Confidence in the housing market is at a 15-year high. 

Why? Because it's almost perfect – good supply, cheap money, but most importantly we seemed to have crossed the psychological barrier and given ourselves permission to start to feel good again. 

The irony is the growth that drives all this might just have been there all along. We get the Q3 GDP number later this month with Infometrics suggesting it is 0.9%. 

Add that to the rest of the year and we are well above the growth line. Not that a lot of the commentary has backed that up. 

Which is not to say some still do it tough. It's not to say it's the boom times. It's just to say there comes a point where the facts, figures and evidence can no longer be denied. 

Here is my next prediction: as a result of all this, 2026 might well be a very good year indeed. 

That's based on the idea that economies are about psychologies. Yes, they are about fundamentals but if the fundamentals are in place, then the next thing you look for is mood. 

And given the mood has been so repressed, when we decide to take the handbrake off there might just be no stopping us. 

As I said last week don't underestimate the Reserve Bank and the finality of their cut. They said this was it, they they've done their job, we are free to go and enjoy our lives. For those waiting and dilly-dallying, that was what they were waiting for. 

The next confidence survey will be over 100 and that will be the start of a trend for the year ahead. 

Remember where you heard it first. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:09):
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Speaker 2 (00:16):
It's probably came out on the wrong day to get
the coverage it actually deserved. But none of the last
or latest pieces of the economic turnaround has told us basically,
we are there. We have arrived. This is consumer confidence.
It is back. It is up six points to ninety eight.
Now it needs to be one hundred and more for expansion,
but it's the highest figures in stune. It backs the

(00:37):
business confidence of last week, which was up a lot.
Business comes first because they see the turnaround on sales.
The spending numbers back that up because they're pretty much
real time, and then you get the confidence. As a
follow up are given. Although we are spending, some may
not want to admit it may still feel a bit
bit of a funk. But add it all together and
the conclusion is inescapable. You can also add the ASB

(00:59):
housing numbers if you want to give you those half
an hour ago. Confidence in the housing market at a
fifteen year high. Why because it's almost perfect good supply,
cheap money. But most importantly, we seem to have crossed
the psychological barrier and given ourselves permission to start to
feel good again. The irony is the growth that drives
all of this. Might just have been there all along.
I mean, we get the Q three GDP number later

(01:21):
on this month, infometrics have already forecast that to be
zero point nine. Add that to the rest of the
year and you're well above the growth line. I mean,
not a lot. I mean, but none of the commentary's
back that up. We've been miserable all year, allegedly, Which
is not to say some aren't still doing it tough.
It's not to say it's going to be boon times,
just to say there comes a point where the facts,

(01:41):
the figures, and the evidence can no longer be denied.
Here's my next prediction. As a result of all of this,
twenty twenty six might well be a very good year. Indeed,
based on the idea that economies are about psychologies. Yes,
they're about the fundamentals, but if the fundamentals are in place,
the next thing you look for is mood. And given
the mood has been so repressed, when we decide to
take the handbrake off, there might just be no stopping us.

(02:03):
As I said last week. Don't underestimate the Reserve Bank
and the finality of that cut. This was it. We've
done our job. You are free to go enjoy your life.
For those waiting and Dilley deallying, that was what they
were waiting for. Next confidence survey will be over one
hundred and that will be the start of a trend
for the year ahead. Remember where you heard it first.

Speaker 1 (02:24):
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