Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: There's a recovery story in today's unemployment figures

On the face of it, the unemployment figure out today is not good. It’s gone up, it's now sitting at 5.4 percent, a high we haven’t seen in almost 11 years. The last time we were anywhere near 5.4 percent was September 2015.

But actually, there is a recovery story here if you look under the hood.

We’ve added 15,000 jobs to the economy. More people want to work, too. As Infometrics points out, fewer people are sitting on the sidelines. We have fewer young people bumming around, and more of them are in work, training, or education.

Most of the people who found work in the last quarter are in part‑time jobs, which suggests employers are taking a cautious chance. They’re not totally convinced the recovery is locked in - not enough to offer full‑time roles - but they’re confident enough to dip their toes back in.

Now, I don’t want to be Pollyannaish here, pretending things are fine when they’re not. I don’t want to oversell good news. But I do think it’s worth focusing on the positive signs in these numbers to give this recovery a chance.

There is enough data out there now to suggest we are on the right side of things and that the recovery is happening. But there’s still a wobble, isn’t there? You talk to some businesses and they’re still unimpressed by what they’re seeing come through the door.

And I just wonder if we’re holding off a little. Maybe we were spooked by the false dawn in 2025 and want to make sure this is actually the recovery we think it is.

Maybe we’re still unsure what the Reserve Bank is going to do. Maybe we want to get the feel of Anna Breman in her first go in a couple of weeks before we start investing money.

We have good signs: consumer confidence, business confidence, GDP growth, retail spending growth, improved manufacturing numbers - the list goes on.

And now add this: the detail under the unemployment number. Put that on the list, step back, and assess what really does look like a recovery, if we just give it the chance.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:09):
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Speaker 2 (00:16):
Okay, on the face of it, that unemployment figure out
today is not good. It's gone up. It's now at
five point four percent, now, sitting at a high that
we haven't seen in almost eleven years. The last time
we were anywhere near five point four percent was in
September twenty fifteen. Actually, though, there is a recovery story here.
If you look under the hood, we have added fifteen
thousand jobs to the economy. There are more people wanting

(00:38):
to work as well. On top of that, fewer, as
informetric says, sitting on the sidelines, we have fewer young
people bumming around now. More of them are either in
work training or education. Most of the people who found
work in the last quarter are in part time work, though,
which suggests that employers are taking a chance here. They're
not totally convinced of the recovery just yet, at least

(00:58):
not enough to offer full time work, but they are
confident enough to take something of a chance. Now. I
don't want to be polyannersh here and suggesting good news
where there isn't any and trying to pretend things are
fine when they're not fine. I don't want to do that,
but I do think it is worth us focusing on
the good stuff in these numbers to give this recovery
a chance. There is enough stuff out there, There are

(01:19):
enough numbers out there now to suggest that we are
actually on the right side of things, and this recovery
is happening. But there is still a wobble, isn't there.
When you talk to some businesses, they're still unimpressed by
what they're seeing come in the door. And I just
wonder if we're holding off a little here. Maybe we've
been spooked by the false storm in twenty twenty five
and we want to make sure this is actually the
recovery that we believe it's going to be. Maybe we're

(01:42):
still unsure of what the Reserve Bank is going to do.
Maybe we want to get the feel of Annabrema in
her first go in a couple of weeks from now
before we start investing money. We have good signs. We
have consumer confidence, we have business confidence, we have GDP growth,
we have retail spending growth, we have improved manufacturing numbers.
The list goes on and then add this the stuff
under the unemployment number. Add that to the list, Step

(02:05):
back and assess what really does look like a recovery
if we just give it the chance.

Speaker 1 (02:10):
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