Kerre Woodham: It's the economy, stupid

"It's the economy, stupid," is a catchphrase that means the primary concern of American voters is the state of the American economy and how that economy affects their personal finances. It was a phrase coined by a strategist in Bill Clinton's successful presidential campaign, and it's pretty much what Christopher Luxon campaigned on in 2023.  

The Labour Government were, and I paraphrase, incompetent economic vandals who had done incalculable damage to the New Zealand economy and only by electing a National Party into government could New Zealand's fortunes be restored. That was pretty much the narrative going into ‘23. Add to that a little bit of light law and order and education and you had the election campaign. Three years on we're heading into another election, and the economic headlines are grim. Example: ASB economists have joined Westpac in forecasting that the economy will contract in the second quarter of the year. Households are only just starting to feel some relief according to ASB's chief economist Nick Tuffley. Higher fuel prices are now squeezing budgets again. That pressure will be felt right across the economy.  

Here's another headline: Finance Minister Nicola Willis has revealed inflation is set to go much higher this year and sit outside the Reserve Bank's target band of 1 to 3%. Here's another: Prospects for a recovery in the labour market this year appear to have dimmed with any decline in the unemployment rate looking more like a story for next year. Infometrics said any signs the economy was starting to recover would most likely be put on hold. Here's another: Wattie's factory closures, boss blames soaring manufacturing costs. Contrast that with Christopher Luxon back in 2023 and his bullish promises that help was on the way, first when he was speaking to me in July. 

“It's going to be a big turnaround job because I think actually we've got a great country but a lot of it is going to be pretty decayed by the time we get there in terms of health, education, housing, the economy, law and order. But that's why I've got my team working on that right now because when we get there, we're not forming steering review, you know we had what was it, 230 working groups to do reviews of stuff. We're going to be ready to go on day one and we're going to have to move at 100ks an hour.  

“So we will have to be really, really clear about the things that we need to transform and actually step up and change a lot and it is going to be education, it is going to be healthcare, it is going to have to be the economy, making sure we're making every dollar count and get a payback for it.” 

And this was Christopher Luxon in November: 

“I don't want people to give up hope. You know, we can actually get to a better and a different place from where we sit today, but we do have to go to work now and we have to go sort out the challenges and we have to realise the opportunities we've got in front of us, and we have to be straight up about it and get it done and get the country turned around.” 

Hmm. Have they? No. They won't be able to campaign on that. Is some of it due to external forces like the fuel crisis? Absolutely. But there were no caveats in the promise that things would turn around and things would get better. Could Labour have done any better? Hell no. I mean they'd already shown they can't cope in a crisis other than throwing money around and locking people up. They simply have no answers. Thank God they're not the government right now otherwise we'd all be working from home and homeschooling the kids because of the fuel crisis or strong winds. But when you look at the polls and you wonder to yourself how on earth could anyone possibly see Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori as a viable government, what you're seeing are voters who were promised much and have yet to see the delivery. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Kerrywood and Mornings podcast from News Talks.
He'd be.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
It's the economy stupid. As a catphrase that means the
primary concern of American voters is the state of the
American economy and how that economy affects their personal finances.
It was a phrase coined by a strategist in Bill
Clinton's successful presidential campaign, and it's pretty much what Christopher

(00:33):
Luxen campaigned on in twenty twenty three. The Labor government
were and I paraphrase and competent economic vandals. Her done
incalculable damage to the New Zealand economy and only by
electing a national party into government could New Zealand's fortunes
be resoort. And that was pretty much the narrative going

(00:53):
into twenty three. Add to that a little bit of
light law and order and education and you had the
election campaign. Three years on, we're heading into another election
and the economic headlines are grim. Example, ASB economists have
joined Westpac and forecasting that the economy will contract in

(01:16):
the second quarter of the year. Households are only just
starting to feel some relief. According to asb's chief economist
Nick toughly higher fuel prices are now squeezing budgets again.
That pressure will be felt right across the economy. Here's
another headline. Finance Minister Nichola Willis has revealed inflation is
set to go much higher this year and sit outside

(01:38):
the Reserved Bank's target band of one to three percent.
Here's another. Prospects for a recovery in the labor market
this year appear to have dimmed, with any decline in
the unemployment rate looking more like a story for next year.
Infometrics said any signs the economy was starting to recover
would most likely be put on hold. Here's another what

(01:59):
is factory closures? Boss blames soaring manufacturing costs. Contrast that
with Christopher Luxen back in twenty twenty three and as
bullish promises that help was on the way first when
you were speaking to me in July.

Speaker 3 (02:15):
It's going to be a big turnaround job, because I think, actually,
we've got a great country, but a lot of it
is going to be pretty decayed by the time we
get there, in terms of health, education, housing, the economy,
law and order. But that's why I've got my team
working on that right now, because when we get there.
We're not forming steering review you know, we had what
was it two hundred and thirty working groups to do
reviews of stuff. We're going to be ready to go
on day one and we have to move at one

(02:35):
hundred k's an hour. So we will have to be
really really clear about the things that we need to
transform and actually step up and change a lot. And
it is going to be education, it is going to
be healthcare. It is going to have to be the
economy making sure we're making every dollar count, you know,
and get a payback for it.

Speaker 2 (02:51):
And this was Christopher luxeen in November.

Speaker 3 (02:53):
So I don't want people to give up hope. You know,
we can actually get to a better in a different
place from where we sit today. But we do have
to go to work now, and we have to go
sort out the challenges and we have to realize the
opportunities we've got in front of us, and we have
to be straight up about it and get it done
and get the country turned around.

Speaker 2 (03:09):
Have they No, they won't be able to campaign on
that as some of it due to external forces like
the fuel crisis. Absolutely, but there were no caveats in
the promise that things would turn around and things would
get better. Could Labor have done any better? Hell no,
I mean that already shown they can't cope in crisis
other than throwing money around and locking people up. They

(03:32):
simply have no answers. Thank god they're not the government
right now, otherwise would all be working from home and
homeschooling the kids because of the fuel crisis or strong wins.
But when you look at the polls and you wonder
to yourself, how on earth could anyone possibly see Labor,
the Green Santai Pati Maori as a viable government. What

(03:57):
you're seeing are voters who were promised much and have
yet to see the delivery.

Speaker 1 (04:04):
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