August 4, 2026 • 10 mins
Unemployment's reached the highest level in 11 years.
Stats NZ data shows the rate reached 5.6% in the June quarter, up from 5.3% in the March quarter.
Of the 166 thousand unemployed in this year's second quarter, almost a-fifth had been without work for more than a year.
Herald Business Editor at Large Liam Dann told Kerre Woodham some economists think the rate won't fall again any time soon.
He says some predict it'll increase to 5.7% and hang around at high levels into next year.
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Kerry Wood of Morning's podcast from
News Talks. He'd be.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
New unemployment data is worse than economists were expecting, but
only mildly. Stats n ZID figures show the unemployment rate
has increased again, up from five point three percent in
March to five point six percent in the June quarter.
To talk us through at New Zealand Herald, Business editor
at large LYM. Dan is with us. Now, very good
morning to you.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
Morning carry So Hannah wish us turning up with some
good Yes, one day, Roberto, surely one day will bad news, Dan,
that's what you are becoming.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
But is this the last of the bad news?
Speaker 3 (00:44):
Well, possibly not on this unemployment thing, because it is
that it is that, you know, we say this all
the time. It's the last piece of the puzzle to
turn in an economic recovery, and we aren't nearly as
far along the economic recovery path as we'd like to
be because of all the horrible things that happened with
them in the world, with the oil prices and whatnot.
So I think there are some economists saying it could
(01:06):
it won't improve for another couple of quarters. Could Well,
you know, I've seen forecasts for coming up to five
point seven and hanging around at relatively high levels next year,
so into next year, I mean, I look, and that's
why I've sort of been I've written recently that I
don't think the economy, economic recovery is going to come
along in time for the election, and not not in
(01:29):
a meaningful way that people, you know, can respond to.
There might be a bit of green shoots starta here
and there, but yeah, this is this is worse than expected.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
It's I mean, is it affecting well.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
Certainly young people are copying it, and as yep so
and Auckland is copying it, Auckland and Northland. Northland's up
at eight point eight percent unemployment rate, and of course
that will be much higher if you dig into the
youth unemployment up there museum. Auckland's unemployment rate is six
point five, which is also a very high headline figure
(02:05):
when you consider that you can find the you know,
an ethnic breakdown and all those things. You can find
much higher levels below the surface, and and you know,
it always requires a bit of bit of explanation, but
the underutilization rate, which is when we throw in, particularly
in this modern world. People who work contracts or two
part time jobs and all that sort of stuff that
(02:26):
might not qualify as full time but would so they're
working a bit they'd like, so they're not officially unemployed,
but they might not be doing very well. They need
more hours, and they're saying they're underutilized.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
What about the Yeah, underutilized is a really good measure.
What about the people who don't get the doll because
their partner owns too much? Are they classified as looking
for work or underutilized?
Speaker 3 (02:48):
This isn't a measure they could be in this this survey,
because this isn't the same as the measure of who's
on the benefit. This is a survey that goes out
and says, you know, to be unemployed, you have to
be actively looking for work and have none include you know,
like if you have one hour of part time work,
(03:08):
you're not officially unemployed. So it's ridiculous. Yeah, well, I
mean that's why we treat the underutilization. You know, that's
quite a serious a measure or a good measure, even
though it's not as snappy and easy to understand as unemployment.
Because we've talked about unemployment for thirty or forty years,
but I think I think it has changed. You know,
there's so many people do work contracts and you know,
(03:32):
different part time jobs and different hustles and all that
sort of stuff that you know, I think underutilization is
probably a better measure to look at. And you know, look,
you're looking at that being at levels we haven't seen
since twenty thirteen. So was that coming out of the
christ Church quakes. It's pretty pretty.
Speaker 2 (03:49):
Grim, it is. So what where do we go from here?
Speaker 3 (03:56):
Well, you know, hopefully, hopefully, you know, you just got
to look at the rest of the world and say, well,
he is hoping they get a resolution. You've got a
will back down into the seventies. Today, I've said, I
don't think today. Yeah, for today, I mean, you'd have
to be there's a lot of cry wolf stuff going
on there, right, and you'd have to be an enormous
optimist to think it's suddenly going to be resolved with
(04:16):
whatever deal the US is talking about overnight. So it
looks to me like it's sort of a two steps forward,
one step back. There'll be tension there for a while,
and at some point I would hope that we sort
of detach a bit from this that we kind of
get on with things, like in a weird sort of way.
I sympathize with what the Prime Minister was perhaps trying
(04:39):
to say on stage and wrote for but well, look,
I wouldn't I probably hopefully would have said it differently.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
But I think I know, I don't know what he meant.
You've got a broad understanding of yeah.
Speaker 3 (04:53):
And just I would use I would use a sporting analogy.
In the World Cup finals, we've just all been paying
attention to the teams that got ahead by one or
two goals and then just hung on and tried to
hang on. They ten to lose, and so oh that's
nice that that hanging on mentality is not great, especially
for business.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
And perhaps it could be a speech right for the
Prime Minister.
Speaker 3 (05:14):
Yeah, no, I don't think so. Wellington's too cold. Yeah,
but it's it's a case that yeah, we unfortunately, and
I actually think in hindsight that survived or twenty five
thing was a terrible.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
Terrible because everybody was waiting for something. In Magic.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
We made a few jokes about what rhyme is of
twenty six, and now in twenty seven, I'm like, no, no,
we're not you know, you just will be in heaven
standing around telling people that the puts the government in
a very different difficult position, but standing around telling people
on the recovery is looking good for next year. Now
if you look at the economists forecast, it kind of is.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
But that would be such a swizz if labor got
back in and then benefited from an improved economy. That
would be so unfair.
Speaker 3 (05:58):
Yeah, well, I mean that that would be that would
oh no, and it might, some might argue be a
bit early for that to happen. I mean, historically we've
not you know, it's very rare to change after I.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
Did after one.
Speaker 3 (06:10):
Look came through it three times in the last century,
so that you know.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
That would know, But that would just be plain wrong
if Hapkins came back. But also you know how they'd
solve the unemployment problem. They're just re hiring the government department.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
It would probably be good news for Wellington in the
short term, but I think, yeah, look, and I don't
know what it would do to the property market and things.
Auckland is clearly a real standout in terms of the
problem with this economy. We've we've been through. We've just
been through the whole cycle everyone, Charlie monkey boom. You know,
(06:51):
dairy prices booming, meat prices booming. That used to be
the formula that solved a lot of New Zealand's economic problems,
and here we are interest rates going up again and
there was no recovery. We missed it.
Speaker 2 (07:05):
How much of that is to do with the lockdowns
or is that, as Chris hap Coin said, you know,
only zb's interested in that now.
Speaker 3 (07:12):
I don't know. Yeah, I think you can certainly look
at the big debt levels and that sort of stuff
and say, well, you know, there are some structural issues
with how much we borrowed, how much stimulus was done,
and then maybe that we because of that, our inflation
went a bit higher and we had to slam on
the brakes harder. But yeah, I mean it almost becomes
(07:35):
behavioral at some point. I mean, all the world is suffering,
and you know, you're gonna hear Nicola Willis and people
talk about that's true, you know the realities of the
global situation, and they're right, But then it does feel
like we're just kind of doing it a bit harder.
Speaker 2 (07:52):
And you know, if they were not lockdown and they're booming, Yeah.
Speaker 3 (07:58):
Yeah, and it also you know, the timing has been
quite good for them in terms of you know, all
the earthquake rebuild coming to Tuition and you know, again
getting myself into trouble here. I am a Cantabrian, always
will be, even though I've been up here thirty years.
But christ Church is a very very big provincial town.
(08:19):
In some respects it's a city, but it is also
a service center for a large agricultural economy, and so
it does fit with the you know, the they're getting
more benefit. They have a big amp show and all
that stuff. You know, it's it's certainly more urbane than
you know than just that, but you know, it does
(08:42):
does have that connection to the agricultural economy which Auckland's lacking.
Auckland's lacking pretty much a property sector at the moment.
You know, it's just been flat to backwards. And you know,
I've had this debate with people about the wealth effect,
but I'm more convinced than ever that you know, Aucklanders
(09:03):
do respond to their house prices going up. And whether
that's that that may well be a bad thing, but
that's what we've become accustomed to. And so you know,
that's what's missing. Consumers in Auckland are very feeling, very
very cautious, and that's all flowing through to hospitality and
business and all the rest of it. And turning it
around is not easy. We don't want to go back
(09:24):
to a sort of a you know, to go back
to your led Zeppelin, you know, just a immigration.
Speaker 2 (09:30):
Well, I'm kind of I would give cutos to the
government for not pulling that lever and using that sugar hit.
Speaker 3 (09:38):
They are making us grind it out in a way
that is probably structurally good for the economy. Agree, it's
extending the pain longer you can use you know, the
analogy of you know, the hard work you do in
the gym and all that sort of stuff. Unfortunately for them,
as we've sort of mentioned it, it looks like it's
going to extend it out past November seven, so they've
got some selling to do around. You know. I would
(10:00):
say take the vision bigger and broader and articulate that
and so you.
Speaker 2 (10:05):
Should be the spectrum for the Prime minister. Here we go,
Thank you very much, Liam Dan. Liam Dan, New Zealand
Herald Business Editor at Large talking the unemployment data out
today up from five point three percent in March to
five point six percent in the Dune quarters.
Speaker 1 (10:20):
For more from kerry Wood and Mornings, listen live to
News Talks at B from nine am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio
You're listening to the Kerry Wood of Morning's podcast from
News Talks. He'd be.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
New unemployment data is worse than economists were expecting, but
only mildly. Stats n ZID figures show the unemployment rate
has increased again, up from five point three percent in
March to five point six percent in the June quarter.
To talk us through at New Zealand Herald, Business editor
at large LYM. Dan is with us. Now, very good
morning to you.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
Morning carry So Hannah wish us turning up with some
good Yes, one day, Roberto, surely one day will bad news, Dan,
that's what you are becoming.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
But is this the last of the bad news?
Speaker 3 (00:44):
Well, possibly not on this unemployment thing, because it is
that it is that, you know, we say this all
the time. It's the last piece of the puzzle to
turn in an economic recovery, and we aren't nearly as
far along the economic recovery path as we'd like to
be because of all the horrible things that happened with
them in the world, with the oil prices and whatnot.
So I think there are some economists saying it could
(01:06):
it won't improve for another couple of quarters. Could Well,
you know, I've seen forecasts for coming up to five
point seven and hanging around at relatively high levels next year,
so into next year, I mean, I look, and that's
why I've sort of been I've written recently that I
don't think the economy, economic recovery is going to come
along in time for the election, and not not in
(01:29):
a meaningful way that people, you know, can respond to.
There might be a bit of green shoots starta here
and there, but yeah, this is this is worse than expected.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
It's I mean, is it affecting well.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
Certainly young people are copying it, and as yep so
and Auckland is copying it, Auckland and Northland. Northland's up
at eight point eight percent unemployment rate, and of course
that will be much higher if you dig into the
youth unemployment up there museum. Auckland's unemployment rate is six
point five, which is also a very high headline figure
(02:05):
when you consider that you can find the you know,
an ethnic breakdown and all those things. You can find
much higher levels below the surface, and and you know,
it always requires a bit of bit of explanation, but
the underutilization rate, which is when we throw in, particularly
in this modern world. People who work contracts or two
part time jobs and all that sort of stuff that
(02:26):
might not qualify as full time but would so they're
working a bit they'd like, so they're not officially unemployed,
but they might not be doing very well. They need
more hours, and they're saying they're underutilized.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
What about the Yeah, underutilized is a really good measure.
What about the people who don't get the doll because
their partner owns too much? Are they classified as looking
for work or underutilized?
Speaker 3 (02:48):
This isn't a measure they could be in this this survey,
because this isn't the same as the measure of who's
on the benefit. This is a survey that goes out
and says, you know, to be unemployed, you have to
be actively looking for work and have none include you know,
like if you have one hour of part time work,
(03:08):
you're not officially unemployed. So it's ridiculous. Yeah, well, I
mean that's why we treat the underutilization. You know, that's
quite a serious a measure or a good measure, even
though it's not as snappy and easy to understand as unemployment.
Because we've talked about unemployment for thirty or forty years,
but I think I think it has changed. You know,
there's so many people do work contracts and you know,
(03:32):
different part time jobs and different hustles and all that
sort of stuff that you know, I think underutilization is
probably a better measure to look at. And you know, look,
you're looking at that being at levels we haven't seen
since twenty thirteen. So was that coming out of the
christ Church quakes. It's pretty pretty.
Speaker 2 (03:49):
Grim, it is. So what where do we go from here?
Speaker 3 (03:56):
Well, you know, hopefully, hopefully, you know, you just got
to look at the rest of the world and say, well,
he is hoping they get a resolution. You've got a
will back down into the seventies. Today, I've said, I
don't think today. Yeah, for today, I mean, you'd have
to be there's a lot of cry wolf stuff going
on there, right, and you'd have to be an enormous
optimist to think it's suddenly going to be resolved with
(04:16):
whatever deal the US is talking about overnight. So it
looks to me like it's sort of a two steps forward,
one step back. There'll be tension there for a while,
and at some point I would hope that we sort
of detach a bit from this that we kind of
get on with things, like in a weird sort of way.
I sympathize with what the Prime Minister was perhaps trying
(04:39):
to say on stage and wrote for but well, look,
I wouldn't I probably hopefully would have said it differently.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
But I think I know, I don't know what he meant.
You've got a broad understanding of yeah.
Speaker 3 (04:53):
And just I would use I would use a sporting analogy.
In the World Cup finals, we've just all been paying
attention to the teams that got ahead by one or
two goals and then just hung on and tried to
hang on. They ten to lose, and so oh that's
nice that that hanging on mentality is not great, especially
for business.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
And perhaps it could be a speech right for the
Prime Minister.
Speaker 3 (05:14):
Yeah, no, I don't think so. Wellington's too cold. Yeah,
but it's it's a case that yeah, we unfortunately, and
I actually think in hindsight that survived or twenty five
thing was a terrible.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
Terrible because everybody was waiting for something. In Magic.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
We made a few jokes about what rhyme is of
twenty six, and now in twenty seven, I'm like, no, no,
we're not you know, you just will be in heaven
standing around telling people that the puts the government in
a very different difficult position, but standing around telling people
on the recovery is looking good for next year. Now
if you look at the economists forecast, it kind of is.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
But that would be such a swizz if labor got
back in and then benefited from an improved economy. That
would be so unfair.
Speaker 3 (05:58):
Yeah, well, I mean that that would be that would
oh no, and it might, some might argue be a
bit early for that to happen. I mean, historically we've
not you know, it's very rare to change after I.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
Did after one.
Speaker 3 (06:10):
Look came through it three times in the last century,
so that you know.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
That would know, But that would just be plain wrong
if Hapkins came back. But also you know how they'd
solve the unemployment problem. They're just re hiring the government department.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
It would probably be good news for Wellington in the
short term, but I think, yeah, look, and I don't
know what it would do to the property market and things.
Auckland is clearly a real standout in terms of the
problem with this economy. We've we've been through. We've just
been through the whole cycle everyone, Charlie monkey boom. You know,
(06:51):
dairy prices booming, meat prices booming. That used to be
the formula that solved a lot of New Zealand's economic problems,
and here we are interest rates going up again and
there was no recovery. We missed it.
Speaker 2 (07:05):
How much of that is to do with the lockdowns
or is that, as Chris hap Coin said, you know,
only zb's interested in that now.
Speaker 3 (07:12):
I don't know. Yeah, I think you can certainly look
at the big debt levels and that sort of stuff
and say, well, you know, there are some structural issues
with how much we borrowed, how much stimulus was done,
and then maybe that we because of that, our inflation
went a bit higher and we had to slam on
the brakes harder. But yeah, I mean it almost becomes
(07:35):
behavioral at some point. I mean, all the world is suffering,
and you know, you're gonna hear Nicola Willis and people
talk about that's true, you know the realities of the
global situation, and they're right, But then it does feel
like we're just kind of doing it a bit harder.
Speaker 2 (07:52):
And you know, if they were not lockdown and they're booming, Yeah.
Speaker 3 (07:58):
Yeah, and it also you know, the timing has been
quite good for them in terms of you know, all
the earthquake rebuild coming to Tuition and you know, again
getting myself into trouble here. I am a Cantabrian, always
will be, even though I've been up here thirty years.
But christ Church is a very very big provincial town.
(08:19):
In some respects it's a city, but it is also
a service center for a large agricultural economy, and so
it does fit with the you know, the they're getting
more benefit. They have a big amp show and all
that stuff. You know, it's it's certainly more urbane than
you know than just that, but you know, it does
(08:42):
does have that connection to the agricultural economy which Auckland's lacking.
Auckland's lacking pretty much a property sector at the moment.
You know, it's just been flat to backwards. And you know,
I've had this debate with people about the wealth effect,
but I'm more convinced than ever that you know, Aucklanders
(09:03):
do respond to their house prices going up. And whether
that's that that may well be a bad thing, but
that's what we've become accustomed to. And so you know,
that's what's missing. Consumers in Auckland are very feeling, very
very cautious, and that's all flowing through to hospitality and
business and all the rest of it. And turning it
around is not easy. We don't want to go back
(09:24):
to a sort of a you know, to go back
to your led Zeppelin, you know, just a immigration.
Speaker 2 (09:30):
Well, I'm kind of I would give cutos to the
government for not pulling that lever and using that sugar hit.
Speaker 3 (09:38):
They are making us grind it out in a way
that is probably structurally good for the economy. Agree, it's
extending the pain longer you can use you know, the
analogy of you know, the hard work you do in
the gym and all that sort of stuff. Unfortunately for them,
as we've sort of mentioned it, it looks like it's
going to extend it out past November seven, so they've
got some selling to do around. You know. I would
(10:00):
say take the vision bigger and broader and articulate that
and so you.
Speaker 2 (10:05):
Should be the spectrum for the Prime minister. Here we go,
Thank you very much, Liam Dan. Liam Dan, New Zealand
Herald Business Editor at Large talking the unemployment data out
today up from five point three percent in March to
five point six percent in the Dune quarters.
Speaker 1 (10:20):
For more from kerry Wood and Mornings, listen live to
News Talks at B from nine am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio
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