March 5, 2026 • 13 mins
An explosive poll shows National has reached its lowest result since forming a Government, as Labour climbs ahead.
The Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll has Labour on 34.4% as National drops six points behind to 28.4%.
The Greens are on 10.5%, with NZ First trailing slightly on 9.7%, ACT on 7.5%, and Te Pati Māori on 3.2%.
Director of Sherson Willis, Trish Sherson told Kerre Woodham the poll is a warning light.
She says 28% isn’t a death certificate, but it does indicate that National has a connection problem as well as a numbers problem.
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Carrywood and Mornings podcast from News Talks.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
He'd be.
Speaker 3 (00:11):
As we all understand, the latest taxpayer union poll carried
out by Currier is about to be released any minute now,
and it's a poorly kept secret and the National Party
will come out only a couple of microscopic points above
the twenty twenty wipeout to Labor. It will show people
(00:34):
believe National on twenty eight percent support, which just a
few months out from the election is not a good look.
In an opinion piece in the New Zealand Herald this morning,
Matthew Houghton suggests Christopher Luxeonstay's as Prime Minister could be numbered.
Houghton notes, with the alternative to the status quo a
Labor Green Tepati Maori coalition. New Zealand has never needed
(00:56):
National more in its ninety year history to competently fulfill
its historic role of keeping the Commies out of power.
Director of HS and Willis Trash Sherson joins me, now,
good morning to you, Trish, Good morning Carrie. All this
leaking and announcements of the poll and all we can't
tell you yet what it is, but all it's widely
(01:18):
believed to be this that sounds like somebody is being
set up for a fall.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
That's right. I mean, I you know, obviously I work
in Auckland and heard about this yesterday afternoon, so it
was in wide circulation pretty early. Here's my view on things.
I think the poll is a warning light. It's not
a death certificate. But at twenty eight percent, you know,
it tells you that National has a connection problem, not
(01:46):
just a numbers problem. So in an election year, as
you and I know, voters punish nothing harder than disunity,
and the worst thing National could do is spiral into
some kind of you know, this kind of leadership chatter
and internal leaks, particularly at a time when what we
know is voters are feeling more uncertain because of the
(02:09):
madness that's happening out there in the world. So, you know,
just my view as a lay voter, I don't think
people expect perfection, but they need steadiness, and especially now
in the face of you know, they're worried about what's
going to happen in Iran, but they're really worried about
what it's going to mean for their household budgets. So
(02:33):
you know, this has been ongoing for National it's been
ongoing for Luxen in terms of his low popularity. History
is often good to look back on. I don't know
if you remember the stunt carry, but you're a great
student of politics. Back in back in the Bulger nineteen
(02:53):
ninety to ninety three government. Bulger had repeatedly low polling,
so much so that Labor MP for Amongoty, George George
Hawkins wrote off to the Guinness Book of World Records
seeing if he could get a world record for the
lowest polling sitting prime minister in the world. Oh great stunt. Yeah, well,
(03:16):
great stunt at the time, but it reminds you, you know,
National has been here before. At that time, there were
a lot of similar forces circulating. Obviously there was unrest
with the US and the Middle East, and we had
real issues with a struggling economy. And in that election,
which was first past the post National managed to get there,
(03:39):
but only only just it was it was a hung parliament.
What we need to remember here is we're dealing with
an MMP, you know MMP politics. So yes, National's polling
is a concern as the major party, but the center
right bloc still has the numbers on paper and I
(04:01):
don't think this time around. If Chris Hipkins is still
the leader of Labor, even though you know Winston cantained
his mind, he's been pretty clear he wouldn't go with them.
I've heard David Seymour this morning. He is pretty locked
in to National. So that's the center right block. Let's
go over to Labor and the Greens and to Party Mali.
(04:22):
So Labor might feel cocker hoop on this pole because
it sounds like they are still in the mid thirties.
That is not stand out polling for a major party either.
And then they have the issue with to Party Maori,
whether in fact and in what form they're going to
get back in. And even with Party Mary and the Greens,
(04:43):
Labor still don't have the numbers at the moment, and
unless they can take some swing voters off the center
right block, their path to power is still very uncertain.
So I think it's worth broadening out into the bigger picture.
Can I just pick up though, on a couple of
what I think I would be worried about if I
(05:04):
were sitting in National at the moment, And that's what
that's what polls like this do to your internal teams,
which you really need to be, you know, doing the
heavy lifting in election year. I think the first thing
it does is it makes it very difficult for staffers
(05:25):
in the beehive and around Parliament because they become focused
on sort of the fear each day of what are
the bad headlines going to be and how can we
just get through it? So they're not thinking that, you know,
they're not thinking here, they're not able to get under
the hood of strategy and do that big picture thinking.
(05:46):
I think from a you know MP perspective, who are
always worried about their own seats and their own list positions,
one of the big concerns there will be on current polling.
There are a number of Nationals, big hitters, Bishop Willis
(06:07):
Goldsmith to name a few, who may not get back
in if this party polling doesn't lift up, and backbench
MPs in their electorates are going to be nervous about that.
And then out in the world in the real world
that national needs i e. Its supporters and its volunteers
and importantly its donors. These poll numbers are not good
(06:29):
for driving the momentum you need to get behind you
for election.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
Year, but surely their donors are not going to go
backing a dead horse must switch to Tapa timorial labor.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
Well, no, I don't think they are kerry, but don't
forget again. There are options in under MMP if you
were into the center right. You know, Helen Clark had
a great line back when MMP was about to come in,
and her line was that the major parties do not
have a right to be the major parties. And it's interesting,
(07:03):
I think we are coming up to the this is
it's the thirtieth anniversary of MMP this election, yep, and
it is the first time that we have seen in
a governing coalition the two minor parties actually in the
stronger positions at this time in the election cycle. Normally
(07:23):
it's the major governing party who's polling would have shored
up those support parties. Their polling will be blinking sometimes
in and out of the danger zone of five percent,
and the smaller parties will be trying to do everything
they can to get attention. In the attention economy that
we currently live in, it's really national that's struggling to
(07:45):
get the attention. And Winston is you know, he is
he's having a blinder.
Speaker 3 (07:50):
Well, he always was going to like you just knew
the way he'd set it up so that he got
the first half of the Deputy pmship, that it would
give him all of this runway to be campaigning and
to be But you have to wonder at by all
the leaks, who's behind the leaks, because I noticed that
you know, Curio has conducted the poll and David Fara's
(08:13):
Kiwi blog is for menting happy mischief since forever ago.
This looks like for menting happy mischief.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
Well, that's right. I mean, don't forget though the Taxpayer
Union has kind of been at war with National, remember
the stuff at the end of last year around Nikola Willis,
And so that hasn't been a that That's not again
you would you might expect that would be a given relationship.
It is absolutely not so the Taxpayer's Union, these are
(08:43):
their numbers. They can tell whoever they want about them
when they want. I just wonder, though, again, if I
were a National what would be keeping me awake at
night right now is how those very hard and traditional
supporters of National are viewing National's chances of governing again.
(09:07):
I think one of the things about the ongoing trends
in these polls, is it ratchets up the uncertainty about
how close this election might be and whether in fact
I mean, you know, I've said on the numbers currently
it looks tough for labor, but it ratchets up that's uncertainty.
And what it also ratchets up is for business out
(09:29):
in the world. If we get to June July and
that risk is looking very real, that's a bad thing
for our certainty to invest certainty in the economy. And
you just get a pretty tricky self fulfilling that's so
much kind of prophecy.
Speaker 3 (09:46):
Yeah, but then we've got you know, the economy is
just starting to come right, We're all just starting to
look positive, the hard work and the hard grind's being done.
And then you get a text like this and all
our votes aren't the same. We need a change. It's
got boring.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
Well, yeah, I mean, who would want to be a
politician right now? That the voters are very, very fickle
and that is not that is not doing a disservice
to voters, But in the last six years they have
probably had, for for most adult generations, the toughest time
(10:30):
financially that they will have had in their lives. So
many people have lost jobs, businesses, you name it. There's
been a real material impact. A lot of people still
feel that they're going backwards, and so that, you know,
that always makes people tough on politicians. And in my view,
(10:52):
I've been to both leaders Chris Hipkins and Chris luxon
State of the Nation's speeches to kick off the year,
to just kind of sniff the breeze. In my view,
I didn't hear from either of them two things. One
is the honesty to really talk about the elephants, the
(11:12):
big elephants in the room for New Zealand that we
have to that we have to get on top of.
Speaker 3 (11:18):
And the other one is you mean that superanuation exactly.
Speaker 2 (11:23):
Right, yes, and the big sort of fiscal cliff that
we're heading towards in the twenty thirties. And so there
was none of that. And then the other thing I
didn't hear. I didn't hear a story from either of
those leaders that said to me, oh, I can look
over the horizon and I can see when the sun's
(11:44):
going to come up. There was none of that. So,
you know, I think for both of those major parties
there's a message and a Messenger issue.
Speaker 3 (11:56):
Right, Well, we'll wait and see. I think you're right.
Stability is the key, especially with external forces at play here.
But I got a text here director to you, Garry
Trish was nearly correct. The National government in nineteen ninety
three had a one seat majority. That was me. I
was the only MP to take a seat from Labor
in that election.
Speaker 2 (12:12):
Pauline Gardner, Oh, well, that fantastic, But Pauline, I mean,
I think that Pauline will remember. The really interesting thing
was actually the election result was absolutely hung in terms
of numbers in Parliament, and National cleverly actually went off
to Sir Peter Tapsell, who was a Labour MP on
the East Coast, and tapped him to become Speaker of
(12:34):
the House, which took one number away from Labor. So
National had the numbers. And then only a couple of
months later Ruth Richardson, who had been the Finance Minister,
stepped down, and so it was a very tricky time
for National. And I can't claim credit for all of
this fantastic political history. I don't know if you've listened
(12:55):
to it, Kerry, but for any of your listeners who
are interested in this stuff, I always think heading into election,
it's a great time to refresh yourself on the recent
history of New Zealand politics. But Toby man Hi Spin
you Can Juggernaut series on the years between nineteen nineteen
nineteen ninety six absolutely fantastic.
Speaker 3 (13:15):
Yeah, good recommendation and lovely to get your analysis and
insights to it. Thank you so much. That is political
commentator Tris Shurson, director of Sharson Willis.
Speaker 1 (13:31):
For more from Carry Wooden Mornings, listen live to News
Talks a B from nine am weekdays, or follow the
podcast on iHeartRadio.
You're listening to the Carrywood and Mornings podcast from News Talks.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
He'd be.
Speaker 3 (00:11):
As we all understand, the latest taxpayer union poll carried
out by Currier is about to be released any minute now,
and it's a poorly kept secret and the National Party
will come out only a couple of microscopic points above
the twenty twenty wipeout to Labor. It will show people
(00:34):
believe National on twenty eight percent support, which just a
few months out from the election is not a good look.
In an opinion piece in the New Zealand Herald this morning,
Matthew Houghton suggests Christopher Luxeonstay's as Prime Minister could be numbered.
Houghton notes, with the alternative to the status quo a
Labor Green Tepati Maori coalition. New Zealand has never needed
(00:56):
National more in its ninety year history to competently fulfill
its historic role of keeping the Commies out of power.
Director of HS and Willis Trash Sherson joins me, now,
good morning to you, Trish, Good morning Carrie. All this
leaking and announcements of the poll and all we can't
tell you yet what it is, but all it's widely
(01:18):
believed to be this that sounds like somebody is being
set up for a fall.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
That's right. I mean, I you know, obviously I work
in Auckland and heard about this yesterday afternoon, so it
was in wide circulation pretty early. Here's my view on things.
I think the poll is a warning light. It's not
a death certificate. But at twenty eight percent, you know,
it tells you that National has a connection problem, not
(01:46):
just a numbers problem. So in an election year, as
you and I know, voters punish nothing harder than disunity,
and the worst thing National could do is spiral into
some kind of you know, this kind of leadership chatter
and internal leaks, particularly at a time when what we
know is voters are feeling more uncertain because of the
(02:09):
madness that's happening out there in the world. So, you know,
just my view as a lay voter, I don't think
people expect perfection, but they need steadiness, and especially now
in the face of you know, they're worried about what's
going to happen in Iran, but they're really worried about
what it's going to mean for their household budgets. So
(02:33):
you know, this has been ongoing for National it's been
ongoing for Luxen in terms of his low popularity. History
is often good to look back on. I don't know
if you remember the stunt carry, but you're a great
student of politics. Back in back in the Bulger nineteen
(02:53):
ninety to ninety three government. Bulger had repeatedly low polling,
so much so that Labor MP for Amongoty, George George
Hawkins wrote off to the Guinness Book of World Records
seeing if he could get a world record for the
lowest polling sitting prime minister in the world. Oh great stunt. Yeah, well,
(03:16):
great stunt at the time, but it reminds you, you know,
National has been here before. At that time, there were
a lot of similar forces circulating. Obviously there was unrest
with the US and the Middle East, and we had
real issues with a struggling economy. And in that election,
which was first past the post National managed to get there,
(03:39):
but only only just it was it was a hung parliament.
What we need to remember here is we're dealing with
an MMP, you know MMP politics. So yes, National's polling
is a concern as the major party, but the center
right bloc still has the numbers on paper and I
(04:01):
don't think this time around. If Chris Hipkins is still
the leader of Labor, even though you know Winston cantained
his mind, he's been pretty clear he wouldn't go with them.
I've heard David Seymour this morning. He is pretty locked
in to National. So that's the center right block. Let's
go over to Labor and the Greens and to Party Mali.
(04:22):
So Labor might feel cocker hoop on this pole because
it sounds like they are still in the mid thirties.
That is not stand out polling for a major party either.
And then they have the issue with to Party Maori,
whether in fact and in what form they're going to
get back in. And even with Party Mary and the Greens,
(04:43):
Labor still don't have the numbers at the moment, and
unless they can take some swing voters off the center
right block, their path to power is still very uncertain.
So I think it's worth broadening out into the bigger picture.
Can I just pick up though, on a couple of
what I think I would be worried about if I
(05:04):
were sitting in National at the moment, And that's what
that's what polls like this do to your internal teams,
which you really need to be, you know, doing the
heavy lifting in election year. I think the first thing
it does is it makes it very difficult for staffers
(05:25):
in the beehive and around Parliament because they become focused
on sort of the fear each day of what are
the bad headlines going to be and how can we
just get through it? So they're not thinking that, you know,
they're not thinking here, they're not able to get under
the hood of strategy and do that big picture thinking.
(05:46):
I think from a you know MP perspective, who are
always worried about their own seats and their own list positions,
one of the big concerns there will be on current polling.
There are a number of Nationals, big hitters, Bishop Willis
(06:07):
Goldsmith to name a few, who may not get back
in if this party polling doesn't lift up, and backbench
MPs in their electorates are going to be nervous about that.
And then out in the world in the real world
that national needs i e. Its supporters and its volunteers
and importantly its donors. These poll numbers are not good
(06:29):
for driving the momentum you need to get behind you
for election.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
Year, but surely their donors are not going to go
backing a dead horse must switch to Tapa timorial labor.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
Well, no, I don't think they are kerry, but don't
forget again. There are options in under MMP if you
were into the center right. You know, Helen Clark had
a great line back when MMP was about to come in,
and her line was that the major parties do not
have a right to be the major parties. And it's interesting,
(07:03):
I think we are coming up to the this is
it's the thirtieth anniversary of MMP this election, yep, and
it is the first time that we have seen in
a governing coalition the two minor parties actually in the
stronger positions at this time in the election cycle. Normally
(07:23):
it's the major governing party who's polling would have shored
up those support parties. Their polling will be blinking sometimes
in and out of the danger zone of five percent,
and the smaller parties will be trying to do everything
they can to get attention. In the attention economy that
we currently live in, it's really national that's struggling to
(07:45):
get the attention. And Winston is you know, he is
he's having a blinder.
Speaker 3 (07:50):
Well, he always was going to like you just knew
the way he'd set it up so that he got
the first half of the Deputy pmship, that it would
give him all of this runway to be campaigning and
to be But you have to wonder at by all
the leaks, who's behind the leaks, because I noticed that
you know, Curio has conducted the poll and David Fara's
(08:13):
Kiwi blog is for menting happy mischief since forever ago.
This looks like for menting happy mischief.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
Well, that's right. I mean, don't forget though the Taxpayer
Union has kind of been at war with National, remember
the stuff at the end of last year around Nikola Willis,
And so that hasn't been a that That's not again
you would you might expect that would be a given relationship.
It is absolutely not so the Taxpayer's Union, these are
(08:43):
their numbers. They can tell whoever they want about them
when they want. I just wonder, though, again, if I
were a National what would be keeping me awake at
night right now is how those very hard and traditional
supporters of National are viewing National's chances of governing again.
(09:07):
I think one of the things about the ongoing trends
in these polls, is it ratchets up the uncertainty about
how close this election might be and whether in fact
I mean, you know, I've said on the numbers currently
it looks tough for labor, but it ratchets up that's uncertainty.
And what it also ratchets up is for business out
(09:29):
in the world. If we get to June July and
that risk is looking very real, that's a bad thing
for our certainty to invest certainty in the economy. And
you just get a pretty tricky self fulfilling that's so
much kind of prophecy.
Speaker 3 (09:46):
Yeah, but then we've got you know, the economy is
just starting to come right, We're all just starting to
look positive, the hard work and the hard grind's being done.
And then you get a text like this and all
our votes aren't the same. We need a change. It's
got boring.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
Well, yeah, I mean, who would want to be a
politician right now? That the voters are very, very fickle
and that is not that is not doing a disservice
to voters, But in the last six years they have
probably had, for for most adult generations, the toughest time
(10:30):
financially that they will have had in their lives. So
many people have lost jobs, businesses, you name it. There's
been a real material impact. A lot of people still
feel that they're going backwards, and so that, you know,
that always makes people tough on politicians. And in my view,
(10:52):
I've been to both leaders Chris Hipkins and Chris luxon
State of the Nation's speeches to kick off the year,
to just kind of sniff the breeze. In my view,
I didn't hear from either of them two things. One
is the honesty to really talk about the elephants, the
(11:12):
big elephants in the room for New Zealand that we
have to that we have to get on top of.
Speaker 3 (11:18):
And the other one is you mean that superanuation exactly.
Speaker 2 (11:23):
Right, yes, and the big sort of fiscal cliff that
we're heading towards in the twenty thirties. And so there
was none of that. And then the other thing I
didn't hear. I didn't hear a story from either of
those leaders that said to me, oh, I can look
over the horizon and I can see when the sun's
(11:44):
going to come up. There was none of that. So,
you know, I think for both of those major parties
there's a message and a Messenger issue.
Speaker 3 (11:56):
Right, Well, we'll wait and see. I think you're right.
Stability is the key, especially with external forces at play here.
But I got a text here director to you, Garry
Trish was nearly correct. The National government in nineteen ninety
three had a one seat majority. That was me. I
was the only MP to take a seat from Labor
in that election.
Speaker 2 (12:12):
Pauline Gardner, Oh, well, that fantastic, But Pauline, I mean,
I think that Pauline will remember. The really interesting thing
was actually the election result was absolutely hung in terms
of numbers in Parliament, and National cleverly actually went off
to Sir Peter Tapsell, who was a Labour MP on
the East Coast, and tapped him to become Speaker of
(12:34):
the House, which took one number away from Labor. So
National had the numbers. And then only a couple of
months later Ruth Richardson, who had been the Finance Minister,
stepped down, and so it was a very tricky time
for National. And I can't claim credit for all of
this fantastic political history. I don't know if you've listened
(12:55):
to it, Kerry, but for any of your listeners who
are interested in this stuff, I always think heading into election,
it's a great time to refresh yourself on the recent
history of New Zealand politics. But Toby man Hi Spin
you Can Juggernaut series on the years between nineteen nineteen
nineteen ninety six absolutely fantastic.
Speaker 3 (13:15):
Yeah, good recommendation and lovely to get your analysis and
insights to it. Thank you so much. That is political
commentator Tris Shurson, director of Sharson Willis.
Speaker 1 (13:31):
For more from Carry Wooden Mornings, listen live to News
Talks a B from nine am weekdays, or follow the
podcast on iHeartRadio.
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