Barry Soper: Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent on Luxon surviving another vote of no confidence

Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper says Chris Luxon's now faced with the knowledge there's several detractors in his caucus. 

The Prime Minister's survived a second vote of confidence in a matter of months, following an urgent caucus meeting which lasted close to three hours. 

He says the Prime Minister has to avoid wreaking havoc on the party and not immediately penalise those who plotted against him. 

"He's got to live with that, that's the nature of politics. Between now and the election, at least - after the election, all bets are off."

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:09):
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Speaker 2 (00:16):
Prime Minister Christopher Larkson says he has the full support
of his caucus following a confidence vote on his leadership
this morning. In a fifty two second press conference during
which he took no questions from media, he was flanked
by key senior members of his caucus, including Ericus Stanford,
tatted as a challenger to his leadership. Joining us right
now is senior political correspondent Barry Soapaghette. Barry, Good afternoon,

(00:41):
So Barry, you picked this yesterday. You said Christopher Larson
was going to stare down the dissenters, and he's managed
to do that successfully for the second time. And I
also think you rowe another bottle of whiskey, actually, Barry.

Speaker 3 (00:54):
Yes, well, I knowed several bottle of whiskeys actually. But
you know, the thing is that for the National Party
to change its leadership at the stage with less than
ninety days to go until Lelie would have been not suicide,
but it would certainly bring them even closer to the brink.

(01:15):
What now Christoph Luxin has to do between now and
the election is to suffer the detractors in his caucus
and we know there are a number, and not penalize
them in the short term, but certainly after the election
then he can deal out some pretty tough medicine to

(01:35):
those people who have been undermining his leadership. I've always
said Tader, what he did, the gaffes that he made
are minor compared to what other prime ministers or other
politicians have said. I mean, to make a captain's call
on an MMP referendum on newstalg ZB with Kerry last

(01:57):
week is not a mortal sin. It's hardy, a venal
sin when you think about it, because he has every
right as the minister to make a captain's call on
something like that and then to give a lecture to businessmen,
small businesses in Roalta Rua, and then to have to

(02:18):
apologize for it. I would not have offered an apology.
I think what he said to them was quite right.
Don't completing to the government every time you think your
business is not going the way it should, look after yourselves,
create a climate, look for better things. So as a
prime minister, I don't think he's done anything that's significantly

(02:41):
bad enough, certainly for him to lose his job.

Speaker 2 (02:45):
There was a show of unity for this fifty two
second press conference. Barry obviously Chris Bishop was standing behind
Christopher Larxon, the same with Erica Stanford of many of
his senior MPs. Is this enough to quarterize that disunity
within the party or does more need to happen for
some of these so called dissenters before the party can
move on?

Speaker 3 (03:04):
Yeah? No, I think you'll remember. And it was a
very different circumstance Helen Clark when senior members of her
party waited on her to stand aside in the leadership
that they were in opposition then, which is quite different
to this. But she in fact promoted her dissenters and
they were loyal compatriots from that day on. And one

(03:29):
of them, of course, was the late Michael Cullen that
he was her deputy and a very loyal member of
her cabinet. So you know, what Christopher Luxon has to
resist doing now is to wreak havoc in the party
by penalizing those who have plotted against him. He's got

(03:49):
to live with that. That's the nature of politics between
now and the election. At least after the election, then
all bets are off. He really has free reign. But
I think what the National Party has to do is
to show, and it has done behind Chris Luckson's leadership,
is to show it can be unified. Because you must remember,

(04:12):
before Luxeon took over, there have been a series of
leaders Simon Bridges, Judith Collins, Todd Muller. You know, in
a very short space of time, he's solidified the leadership.
Today he probably weakened it by putting it to a vote,
but nevertheless he's been endorsed by the Caukers and that's
all that's required.

Speaker 2 (04:33):
Do you think a part of this could have been
burying This is massive speculation here, but that's okay. But
some of the potential contenders were looking at less than
three months to the election and it could have been
a poison chalice. So I suppose. My question is, if
Christopher Luxen manages to win and retain being in government
with the coalition, is he safe from that point on

(04:54):
or could this rear its head again?

Speaker 3 (04:57):
Oh? Who knows? I mean, I think you know if
he goes on to win, and I still believe, I mean,
you only had to look at the pole of polls
in the Herald this week to that they had around
seventy percent chance of the current coalition of winning the
election on November seventh. That may have been diminished slightly

(05:19):
because of the disruption that this has caused, but that's
not to say that they can't go on and win.
And well, Chris Luxon now will be the prime minister
going into the election. If he comes out of the
election as prime minister, then I believe, because the economy
is starting to turn, that he'll go from strength to

(05:40):
strength and probably won't be subjected to the gaffes that
he has uttered in the past because he will have
learnt from them. You've really got to be careful every
time you open your mouth for what may what it
may mean further down the track.

Speaker 2 (05:58):
It was a long meeting Barrier and O to be
a fly on the wall and what went on in
that meeting, BacT, have you got any idea on what
was likely to have played out? Clearly they held that
that vote the confidence vote, but I imagine there was
some robust discussions being had by many of the senior
MP's and Christopher Luxe and himself.

Speaker 3 (06:16):
Oh, I'm sure that Christopher Luxen would have known who
was doing the numbers and that would have become clear
because all they do is ring around their colleagues and
say who are you going to support? Well, that word
would get back to the Prime Minister, so he would
know who the plotters were, who the winges were, and

(06:38):
who it was that was undermining the National Party. And
you know, he's got to resist taking any action at
the moment is my belief. But after the election it'll
be a different story. But nevertheless, it has damaged the party,
there's no doubt about that, and it may strengthen his
opponent's hands. That's Act and New Zealand first. But nevertheless,

(07:03):
the coalition I think would still be able to pull
enough votes together to continue on the treasury benches.

Speaker 2 (07:12):
Barry, really great to get your insights. Thank you very much,
and we'll let you go and pick up those bottles
of whiskey that you've won. That is our senior political correspondent,
Barry Soaper.

Speaker 1 (07:23):
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