February 22, 2026 • 10 mins
On Saturday Donald Trump announced a 10% levy on all goods coming into the US in response to the Supreme Court ruling his other tariffs unconstitutional.
The new global tariffs were updated to 15% on Sunday.
Economist Cameron Bagrie joined Tim Beveridge to talk about the implications for kiwi businesses.
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks
I'd be.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Yesterday, Donald Trump said he would place a ten percent
levy on all goods coming into the US. This is
followed by the decision by the Supreme Court to including
by the ones here, including by the ones he had appointed,
to scrap Trump's previous import taxes he calling they basically
call them monster constitutional. And today Trump up the global
tariff to fifteen percent, causing understandable concern among Kiwi businesses,
(00:33):
as well as generally concerned about the risk of escalating
trade tensions and what it might mean for global growth. Anyway,
to dig into all that, economists Cameron Bagriy is with
me now. Cameron, good afternoon, Good afternoon. I was tempted
to say, in a fickle sense that system systems normal
for us, because didn't we have a fifteen percent tariff anyway?
Speaker 3 (00:56):
Yeah, or what we're seeing at the moment is what
we call genderonomics, more flip flops and more fature bondoa.
If you sit back and look at the big picture
in regards to what's going on, New Zealand's a will
that sort of embraces free trade, principles we don't tend
to like by taris. What we saw was the US
(01:17):
President put on some paris has been told to take
them off because it's own constitutional, and and he's come
back and he said, well, I get it another crack.
But you know, I think from memory what he can
put on, I think it's got a lifetime of about
one hundred and fifty days. But yeah, it's uncertain. You know,
we're seeing a lot of flip flops. They've all concerned
at the moment. But the good news at face value
(01:38):
what we saw with the constitutional decision.
Speaker 2 (01:42):
I guess what the decision by the Supreme Court have
caused more shock waves back in the US than it
actually causes for us, because ultimately are we greatly affected.
There's the uncertainty, but the actual tariff levels. Does it
make any difference what he's announced to what the status
quo was a couple of days ago.
Speaker 3 (02:00):
Well, we'll see the bigger picture here is it's really simple.
We don't like jumps. So what's been put on board
looks like it's unconstitutional. It looks like he's trying a
side avenue, a sidebar in regard to put something in
whether that's stickable beyond the sort of one hundred and
(02:21):
fifty days. We can debate. But I think the good
news out of that there's a little bit of realism
coming through that the US President just can't go around
in place sort of that big bully boy card in
regard to what's going on. There's some pretty effective checks
and balances within the United States political and economic system
that will call time on you if you're doing something
(02:43):
that's just not right. And that's what we've seen in
the past forty eight airs.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
So a lot of talk about uncertainty. Is the uncertainty
any worse today than it was a few days ago
before the Supreme Court decision?
Speaker 3 (02:55):
No, because what we're seeing at the moment, And as
soon as he got the Supreme Court decision, he came
out and he said, well, I'm going to put a
ten percent global tariff, and then it goes up to
sort of fifth thing. So once again, it's just that
genderonomics environment that we live in. You know, the biggest
certainty at the moment is uncertainty, particularly what's coming out
of anything related to geo politics and geo strategic We've
(03:16):
been used to the world where it's been all about
the rule of law. Now it's about your power based
economic systems. The world is behaving very differently compared to
what we've been used to between that sort of the
nineteen nineties to about twenty and ninety eight. It's a
little bit more akin to what we saw in the
fifties and sixties and the seventies. That was still a
reasonable economics at a period, but a lot more economic
(03:38):
latility that firms just need to contend with and be
aware of.
Speaker 2 (03:42):
So how does his latest announcement affect us? Not so
much our tariffs, but in relation to other nations that
trade with the US. So we worse off than them?
And are there some who have been heavily tariffed who
are going to be like, well, yipee, we're better off.
Speaker 3 (03:59):
Well, this is the interesting aspect of that, because yeah,
tariffs are not just an absolute there a relative. Game
in usual got slatted a little bit more than Australia,
and so we will put it at a competitive disadvantage
compared to Australia. But I think we're at a competitive
advantage compared to the locks of Brazil, the locks of beef,
because they got whacked with the high power of six
(04:22):
to twelve months ago, and now it looks like they're
playing for you. It's going to be pretty level across
the board. So the absolute story is not great, but
the relative story is probably we're a little bit better
off of the margin compared to where we were. This
is Australia, they're probably a little bit worse off compared
to some other South American trading partners who also pushed
product into the United States.
Speaker 2 (04:41):
How do the markets cope with all this uncertainty, I
mean here and internationally.
Speaker 3 (04:48):
Well, there's a few things that are starting to go
on at the moment. Look at the US dollar is
now starting to be a little bit questioned in regard
to it's where it's going to be five ten years
down the track in the United States, the economy and
the US dollar, there's currency and economy supreme that there's
no one even close to it. But when you start
(05:10):
to see political uncertainty, economic uncertainty, inflation uncertainty, gender nomics,
your people start to question the venue of the US
dollar as the world's reserve currency. Now that has not
been seriously challenged at present, but if we see a
continuation of this sort of stuff over the extrat of three,
four or five years, You're people going to start to
lock at other investment avenues, other countries, the other stores
(05:33):
are that you are really interesting to see in the past.
You're twelve months what we've seen with the price of gold.
The price of gold has gone from two thousand, six
hundred years up to an excess of five thousand dollars provounce.
And that's telling you something about your people are starting
to think of economic alternatives and regard the store of
venue uncertainty when you're in an uncertain world.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
So, actually you've alluded to the effect it might have
on the US dollar. Is that the one thing that
might cause t I mean, we obviously we've got the
Supreme Court who have an influence on these things, clearly,
but in terms of just what's happening with economies, markets,
and the dollar, would that be something that might actually
(06:12):
cause Trump to modify his behavior if the dollar started
to look a bit her fee.
Speaker 3 (06:17):
Yes, not just the US dollar. We keep a pretty
close sigh on what's called bond markets. US ten year
treasury is how much it costs the United States government
to borrow. You know, I got back to a number
of years ago in the UK, we had this woman
called Liz Trust. She was the Prime Minister. She came
alive and decided to come in with tax cuts and
(06:39):
an interesting economic sort of program that she thought was
going to be positive for the UK economy. Bond markets
and the British pound had a completely different version. So
the pound went down and what's called guilts or UK
ten year bonds went up, and a liar and behold
the Lewis Trust lasted about them up financial markets, and
then they sent a very severe and swift message. The
(07:01):
decon prescription that was put on the table by her
was just on ten and she was out the door.
So in what we saw in April last year with
Donald Trump when he brought in the first round of tariffs,
well guess what, Bonds went up and the US dollar
went down, and the US equity market didn't have a
great sort of first few weeks to April alarm. Whole
(07:21):
things were tempered after that. So the message here is
that there's no free lunch. Markets decided to have a
little bit of a crackle, have got question marks about
your economic prescription. You can start to see a little
bit of attention between markets versus the presidency or the
US administration.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
In terms of where people are investing their money? Is
it just a continuation from here on that as you say,
gold's gone through the roof? Comparatively speaking, do you see
any particular changes to that might anything that might influence
the change and where s people are sticking their money.
Speaker 3 (07:54):
Well, one of the big things we're watching at the
moment is just as politiciate, gender, nomic, sort of that
sort of stuff you had attention. We're seeing yeah, politically,
and now that involves I Ran. I think things are
going to get a little industry over over Cuba as well.
But one of the key variables where lock keep an
eye on globally is just inflation and inflation around the globe.
Central banks, by and large, you've got a mandate to
(08:16):
have inflation at two percent. Most central banks seem to
the best that done is get sort of poor inflation
banks down towards three. And if I have a locker
is now on Australia, the United States, the REALI States
had some numbers out on Friday night, the liar and behold,
the US inflation is on the ascent. We're seen becauseserve
banks facing agelicate balancing act here the Reserve Bank Australia
(08:38):
has already had to lift interest rates. Inflation is it
siphens money out of people pockets? We don't like it. Unfortunately,
in order to contain inflation you need to beat up
the economy a little bit and introducts tend to go
a little bit higher. It's a big variable. Were keep
an eye at the moment. It's just the outlook for inflation,
and it just looks like inflation has proven to be
a bit sticky compared to what we've been used to
(08:59):
over the past twenty to thirty years. And of course
most people experience with inflation is the last twenty to
thirty years.
Speaker 2 (09:05):
Actually, I wasn't going to ask this, but just as
a little bonus question, were you happy with the first
outing of our new Reserve Bank Governor Arna Bremen.
Speaker 3 (09:13):
Oh, I've played with a pretty safe so yeah, sake,
pair of hands plaid with a pretty straight there. Obviously,
the economy's a little bit stronger, you've got inflations a
bit stronger. So yeah, the twenty twenty seven start to
the hiking cycle looks now more like it's going to
be twenty twenty six. My personal view is that the
(09:35):
reserve banks should be going a little bit earlier than
the latter part of the year. But they pulled forward
their view. They responded to economic development. Let's see what
the economic data tells the Reserve bank appen extra three months.
Speaker 2 (09:48):
Excellent. Hey Cameron, thanks so much for your time this happening.
Speaker 3 (09:50):
Really appreciate it all the best.
Speaker 2 (09:52):
Yeah, there we go. I think he could. I don't
know if he's copyrighted the Jendle nomics, but he snuck
that one in a few times. I do like it
the flip Flop Economy.
Speaker 1 (09:59):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to News
Talk z'd be weekends from three pm, or follow the
podcast on iHeartRadio.
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks
I'd be.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Yesterday, Donald Trump said he would place a ten percent
levy on all goods coming into the US. This is
followed by the decision by the Supreme Court to including
by the ones here, including by the ones he had appointed,
to scrap Trump's previous import taxes he calling they basically
call them monster constitutional. And today Trump up the global
tariff to fifteen percent, causing understandable concern among Kiwi businesses,
(00:33):
as well as generally concerned about the risk of escalating
trade tensions and what it might mean for global growth. Anyway,
to dig into all that, economists Cameron Bagriy is with
me now. Cameron, good afternoon, Good afternoon. I was tempted
to say, in a fickle sense that system systems normal
for us, because didn't we have a fifteen percent tariff anyway?
Speaker 3 (00:56):
Yeah, or what we're seeing at the moment is what
we call genderonomics, more flip flops and more fature bondoa.
If you sit back and look at the big picture
in regards to what's going on, New Zealand's a will
that sort of embraces free trade, principles we don't tend
to like by taris. What we saw was the US
(01:17):
President put on some paris has been told to take
them off because it's own constitutional, and and he's come
back and he said, well, I get it another crack.
But you know, I think from memory what he can
put on, I think it's got a lifetime of about
one hundred and fifty days. But yeah, it's uncertain. You know,
we're seeing a lot of flip flops. They've all concerned
at the moment. But the good news at face value
(01:38):
what we saw with the constitutional decision.
Speaker 2 (01:42):
I guess what the decision by the Supreme Court have
caused more shock waves back in the US than it
actually causes for us, because ultimately are we greatly affected.
There's the uncertainty, but the actual tariff levels. Does it
make any difference what he's announced to what the status
quo was a couple of days ago.
Speaker 3 (02:00):
Well, we'll see the bigger picture here is it's really simple.
We don't like jumps. So what's been put on board
looks like it's unconstitutional. It looks like he's trying a
side avenue, a sidebar in regard to put something in
whether that's stickable beyond the sort of one hundred and
(02:21):
fifty days. We can debate. But I think the good
news out of that there's a little bit of realism
coming through that the US President just can't go around
in place sort of that big bully boy card in
regard to what's going on. There's some pretty effective checks
and balances within the United States political and economic system
that will call time on you if you're doing something
(02:43):
that's just not right. And that's what we've seen in
the past forty eight airs.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
So a lot of talk about uncertainty. Is the uncertainty
any worse today than it was a few days ago
before the Supreme Court decision?
Speaker 3 (02:55):
No, because what we're seeing at the moment, And as
soon as he got the Supreme Court decision, he came
out and he said, well, I'm going to put a
ten percent global tariff, and then it goes up to
sort of fifth thing. So once again, it's just that
genderonomics environment that we live in. You know, the biggest
certainty at the moment is uncertainty, particularly what's coming out
of anything related to geo politics and geo strategic We've
(03:16):
been used to the world where it's been all about
the rule of law. Now it's about your power based
economic systems. The world is behaving very differently compared to
what we've been used to between that sort of the
nineteen nineties to about twenty and ninety eight. It's a
little bit more akin to what we saw in the
fifties and sixties and the seventies. That was still a
reasonable economics at a period, but a lot more economic
(03:38):
latility that firms just need to contend with and be
aware of.
Speaker 2 (03:42):
So how does his latest announcement affect us? Not so
much our tariffs, but in relation to other nations that
trade with the US. So we worse off than them?
And are there some who have been heavily tariffed who
are going to be like, well, yipee, we're better off.
Speaker 3 (03:59):
Well, this is the interesting aspect of that, because yeah,
tariffs are not just an absolute there a relative. Game
in usual got slatted a little bit more than Australia,
and so we will put it at a competitive disadvantage
compared to Australia. But I think we're at a competitive
advantage compared to the locks of Brazil, the locks of beef,
because they got whacked with the high power of six
(04:22):
to twelve months ago, and now it looks like they're
playing for you. It's going to be pretty level across
the board. So the absolute story is not great, but
the relative story is probably we're a little bit better
off of the margin compared to where we were. This
is Australia, they're probably a little bit worse off compared
to some other South American trading partners who also pushed
product into the United States.
Speaker 2 (04:41):
How do the markets cope with all this uncertainty, I
mean here and internationally.
Speaker 3 (04:48):
Well, there's a few things that are starting to go
on at the moment. Look at the US dollar is
now starting to be a little bit questioned in regard
to it's where it's going to be five ten years
down the track in the United States, the economy and
the US dollar, there's currency and economy supreme that there's
no one even close to it. But when you start
(05:10):
to see political uncertainty, economic uncertainty, inflation uncertainty, gender nomics,
your people start to question the venue of the US
dollar as the world's reserve currency. Now that has not
been seriously challenged at present, but if we see a
continuation of this sort of stuff over the extrat of three,
four or five years, You're people going to start to
lock at other investment avenues, other countries, the other stores
(05:33):
are that you are really interesting to see in the past.
You're twelve months what we've seen with the price of gold.
The price of gold has gone from two thousand, six
hundred years up to an excess of five thousand dollars provounce.
And that's telling you something about your people are starting
to think of economic alternatives and regard the store of
venue uncertainty when you're in an uncertain world.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
So, actually you've alluded to the effect it might have
on the US dollar. Is that the one thing that
might cause t I mean, we obviously we've got the
Supreme Court who have an influence on these things, clearly,
but in terms of just what's happening with economies, markets,
and the dollar, would that be something that might actually
(06:12):
cause Trump to modify his behavior if the dollar started
to look a bit her fee.
Speaker 3 (06:17):
Yes, not just the US dollar. We keep a pretty
close sigh on what's called bond markets. US ten year
treasury is how much it costs the United States government
to borrow. You know, I got back to a number
of years ago in the UK, we had this woman
called Liz Trust. She was the Prime Minister. She came
alive and decided to come in with tax cuts and
(06:39):
an interesting economic sort of program that she thought was
going to be positive for the UK economy. Bond markets
and the British pound had a completely different version. So
the pound went down and what's called guilts or UK
ten year bonds went up, and a liar and behold
the Lewis Trust lasted about them up financial markets, and
then they sent a very severe and swift message. The
(07:01):
decon prescription that was put on the table by her
was just on ten and she was out the door.
So in what we saw in April last year with
Donald Trump when he brought in the first round of tariffs,
well guess what, Bonds went up and the US dollar
went down, and the US equity market didn't have a
great sort of first few weeks to April alarm. Whole
(07:21):
things were tempered after that. So the message here is
that there's no free lunch. Markets decided to have a
little bit of a crackle, have got question marks about
your economic prescription. You can start to see a little
bit of attention between markets versus the presidency or the
US administration.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
In terms of where people are investing their money? Is
it just a continuation from here on that as you say,
gold's gone through the roof? Comparatively speaking, do you see
any particular changes to that might anything that might influence
the change and where s people are sticking their money.
Speaker 3 (07:54):
Well, one of the big things we're watching at the
moment is just as politiciate, gender, nomic, sort of that
sort of stuff you had attention. We're seeing yeah, politically,
and now that involves I Ran. I think things are
going to get a little industry over over Cuba as well.
But one of the key variables where lock keep an
eye on globally is just inflation and inflation around the globe.
Central banks, by and large, you've got a mandate to
(08:16):
have inflation at two percent. Most central banks seem to
the best that done is get sort of poor inflation
banks down towards three. And if I have a locker
is now on Australia, the United States, the REALI States
had some numbers out on Friday night, the liar and behold,
the US inflation is on the ascent. We're seen becauseserve
banks facing agelicate balancing act here the Reserve Bank Australia
(08:38):
has already had to lift interest rates. Inflation is it
siphens money out of people pockets? We don't like it. Unfortunately,
in order to contain inflation you need to beat up
the economy a little bit and introducts tend to go
a little bit higher. It's a big variable. Were keep
an eye at the moment. It's just the outlook for inflation,
and it just looks like inflation has proven to be
a bit sticky compared to what we've been used to
(08:59):
over the past twenty to thirty years. And of course
most people experience with inflation is the last twenty to
thirty years.
Speaker 2 (09:05):
Actually, I wasn't going to ask this, but just as
a little bonus question, were you happy with the first
outing of our new Reserve Bank Governor Arna Bremen.
Speaker 3 (09:13):
Oh, I've played with a pretty safe so yeah, sake,
pair of hands plaid with a pretty straight there. Obviously,
the economy's a little bit stronger, you've got inflations a
bit stronger. So yeah, the twenty twenty seven start to
the hiking cycle looks now more like it's going to
be twenty twenty six. My personal view is that the
(09:35):
reserve banks should be going a little bit earlier than
the latter part of the year. But they pulled forward
their view. They responded to economic development. Let's see what
the economic data tells the Reserve bank appen extra three months.
Speaker 2 (09:48):
Excellent. Hey Cameron, thanks so much for your time this happening.
Speaker 3 (09:50):
Really appreciate it all the best.
Speaker 2 (09:52):
Yeah, there we go. I think he could. I don't
know if he's copyrighted the Jendle nomics, but he snuck
that one in a few times. I do like it
the flip Flop Economy.
Speaker 1 (09:59):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to News
Talk z'd be weekends from three pm, or follow the
podcast on iHeartRadio.
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