May 2, 2026 • 16 mins
New Zealand has received a preliminary proposal from the United States requesting help in opening the Strait of Hormuz - possibly as part of a coalition that would restore access to the strait.
So yes we're apparently just one of a number of countries that received a proposal.
Foreign Affairs minister Winston Peters says we're seeking more information and as such won't be making a decision anytime soon.
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks.
I'd be yes. So New Zealand has received a preliminary
proposal from the United States requesting help in opening the
Strait of hall Moves, possibly as part of a coalition,
is reported by The Wall Street Journal that would restore
access to the strait. So yes, apparently we're just one
(00:27):
of a number of countries that have received the proposal.
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters not surprisingly says we're seeking
more information and as such won't be making a decision
anytime soon. And geopolitical analyst Dr Jeffrey Miller is with us. Jeffrey,
Good afternoon, Good afternoon, Tim, So help with opening the
(00:49):
Straits of hor Moves. What sort of help does What
does that look like in practical terms?
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Do you think it all sounds rather innocuous to from
what you've read out there? And I think listeners might
be confused because this all might seem quite familiar, because
Christopher lux and tended a virtual meeting led by the
kar Starma back in April on a plan to patrol
the Strait of for Moves and ensure freedom of navigation.
What's important to know here is that this is completely separate.
(01:17):
So this US led initiative called the Maritime Freedom Construct,
it all sounds very nice and about getting the straight
open and everything, and who wouldn't want that, But actually
I think it's a trojan horse here for actually getting
other countries involved in breaking the Iranian blockade by force.
And if you read through some of the details that
(01:37):
the Wall Street Journal had in its report it was
leaked to the diplomatic cable from the United States, it
kind of makes that clear eventually you get to it.
It talks all about information sharing and these kinds of things,
but it says in the cable and I quote, collective
action is essential to demonstrate unified resolve and impose meaningful
(01:58):
costs on Iranian obstruction of transit through the Strait. So
I think what it's really about is building a military
coalition to go in by force stop the Iranian blockade
or break the Iranian blockade of the strade of her
moves and solve things militarily. And I can see why
Winston Peters is kicking for touch on all of this,
because it's highly sensitive and it's very different to the
(02:19):
British proposal or the British French proposal, which is really
after a ceasefire is in place more than monitoring and
surveillance of patrol mission, where I think New Zealand probably
could make some contribution.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
So should we be more interested in looking at a
plan I think France and UK a France and UK
lead plan as well. Would that be a better move
for US? Or does that sort of enable Washington to
sort of wash its hands of the whole thing and
leave us with the bag of whatever we're holding.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
Yeah, I think they're two different proposals to and I
think the US one is one for right now to
try and aggressively break Iran's blockade by force. The British
and French propose is sort of under the assumption that
there will be some deal done. So this is far
as in place that there will be some deal done
between Iran and the United States, and then a multinational
(03:16):
coalition made up of dozens of countries, potentially under British
and French leadership, will go in there will clear the
strait of minds. I mean, that's not something New Zealand
can do, but it's something that the British and the French,
the Europeans can do, and then the likes of New
Zealand the smaller countries will come in with a frigate
or two and patrol the strait and just give confidence
to commercial shipping companies that they can transit through the
(03:39):
Strait safely. And that sends a signal also to insurance
companies to reduce the premiums that look, this, there's a
safe waterway. The world's militaries are there patrolling the strait.
It is safe to cross. And that's in one way.
One of the biggest problems that we've had is this
crisis are part quite apart from the fact that there
are drones and missiles that have been flying across the Strait,
(04:01):
is simply that insurance companies won't give you insurance if
you want to go through this trait, you're on your own,
and shipping companies say, well, we're not going through this trade.
And that's why the blockade has been so successful. It's
worked very well from a round perspective.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
Is this something where Donald Trump this is sort of
like a transactional strategy. His approach to it's like I
just asked these guys to step up, But really what's
behind it is really the danger of escalation and being
drawn into a wider conflict.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
Indeed, because you think, what will around do if a
whole lot of countries come to the US, come to
the United States AID and start this blockade busting mission.
I think probably they will fight back. And I think
that suddenly the war is back on, and suddenly New
Zealand and other countries are on the American side. And
I think, as I said, well, this is what it's
(04:49):
really about. It's a trojan horse forgetting the likes of
New Zealand on board and supporting the United States in
this war.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
If I'm anyone in the decision making part of our government,
I'm listening, I'd be listening to you and go, there's
no bloody way we're going anywhere near this.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
Indeed, I I mean, I think that's I mean, with
Donald Trump, you don't want to say no. You just
don't want to say yes, and you want to keep saying,
you want to keep saying you're considering the proposal and
studying it, but you just don't want to actually give
a firm no because that will make him angry. And
you see what's happened with Germany most recently in the
last couple of days, Donald Trump says he's withdrawing five
(05:25):
thousand troops from Germany as punishment because Frederick Mounts, the
German Chancellor, spoke out against the United States against Donald
Trump and said it was a humiliation what they were
suffering at the moment. That didn't go down well. I mean,
you've seen others like Spain and Italy as well of
coming for a tongue lashing with by Donald Trump and
for threats. I mean, Donald Trump threatened a trade embargo
(05:47):
against Spain for their position on the war. And so
you seem infants to make itself as smaller target as possible,
keep their head down, not say no, mister Trump, We're
not doing this. Just just keep studying it, keep studying it,
keeps studying it, and eventually hope that it all just
dies a death in the back, because hopefully there will
(06:07):
be some deal done and that makes all of this move.
And I think that's perhaps one of the most encouraging things.
Over the last couple of days, there's a new Uranian
proposal for a deal that we'll see the blockades lifted,
a mutual lifting of the blockades in a first phase
of the deal done over a period of up to
a month and putting them nuclear issue to one side.
(06:29):
And that's not going to be to Donald Trump's liking,
but I think perhaps it's the only way forward here
is to give us as simple as a deal as
possible just on the blockade issue, and then move to
the next phase, because I think dealing with all of
those issues at once was just creating a very, very
complicated situation. And this is still complicated stuff what we're
(06:52):
dealing with. And I don't think Donald Trump will like it,
because what does he get out of this for nothing
at the end of the day, apart from a whole
lot of chaos. And it's difficult to see what Donald
Trump wins out of this, and you know he loves
project himself as the winner. But it'd be good for
the whole world if we actually had a lifting of
the blockade, even if that wasn't a permanent end to
(07:15):
potentially all the issues between the United States and Iran,
just some kind of more durable ceasefire that had that
lifting of the blockades, because what we've got at the
moment is this sort of uneasy truce where there is
a seafire in place, and yet the blockades are still
firmly in place and ships are not transitting through the
strait uple moves, even if drones and missiles are not
(07:36):
crossing the strait like they were back in March and
early April.
Speaker 1 (07:41):
Is that, in fact our sort of not get out
of jail free, but our strategies say we look forward
to helping once certain conditions have been fulfilled, like New
Zealand will plats part and then we just basically outline
under what conditions we will help once the hostilities have finished.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
Yeah. I think that's what news End in effectively is doing.
I don't think they will probably want to say that
in so many words of time on. I think it's
probably the smart movement, probably what the government is doing,
and the effect is just saying, well, we're looking at
the proposal carefully. They've probably got no intention of signing
up to this US proposal. I think New Zealand will
be involved, probably in some form in that British and
(08:20):
French mission, which is more of as I say, patrol
and a monitoring mission once there's a cease fire in place,
a durable cease fire once the blockades have been lifted.
I think that mission will get underway. I mean, there
needs to be some kind of mission to just clear
the minds that have been made in the strait and
then just ensure that traffic is flowing through the strait.
(08:40):
But I think one thing that New Zealand really could
contribute more towards him is in the deal making behind
the scenes and the diplomacy, because I think ultimately the
issue is that you can't solve this conflict by military means.
I think the last two months have taught us that
and that we need a diplomatic deal of political solution,
(09:01):
and it may have escaped some listeners, but on Thursday night,
I think Donald sorry, Christopher Luxen had phone calls with
the President of the United Arab Emirates and also the
Sultan of Oman for example. These are two of the
golf states that are there on the front lines. And
that these aren't the first phone calls that Christopher Luxeon
is held with golf leaders. He's talked with an Air
(09:23):
of Katara, he had earlier calls with the president of
the UAE, for example. So there's a lot of, I
think things going on behind the scenes, and I think
this has when New Zealand could be particularly valuable speaking
up for dialogue, diplomacy, ed escalation and in the peace,
in the peace building behind the scenes, because this in
the end, I mean, you look at what New Zealand's
(09:45):
military capabilities are and its naval capabilities. We know that
they're not really that substantial, you know, so what can
we do? Yes, we can send one frigate up there,
and New Zealand has sent frigates up to the Middle
East for decades, actually to Kaha was up there last year.
But the reality is that that's you know, for a
(10:05):
small state like New Zealand, military capabilities are quite limited
in scope. When it comes to diplomas well. Diplomacy is
all about people fundamentally, and I think small countries like
New Zealand can be quite useful in terms of go
between and that's what we need at the moment, lots
of discussion and go between. Pakistan has been doing that,
(10:26):
but I think there's room for plenty of others to
be involved, and often it's small countries like Oman that's
become involved in all of this. So I think New
Zealand could play it, definitely play its part, along with
the likes of Switzerland Oman. Smaller states can get involved
and keep those negotiations going because there is their military solution.
Speaker 1 (10:44):
Well, just in terms of the cessation of hostilities, the
sixty day declaration that the war being terminated, what pressure
I mean that because I think Trump needs some ascent
from Congress to continue. So how does that affect, you know,
just what's going to happen with the tensions between Iran
and the US, which obviously need to be resolved to
the point that we can actually get on with things.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
Yeah, I think you're absolutely right. I mean that was
really about the War Powers Act, and really it was
more of a technicality than anything. I mean, look, we
are in a cease fire phase. We've been in a
cease fire for almost a month now, and yet oil
is still at one hundred and eight dollars a barrel
bring oil, And that tells you everything about the situation
we're in. We're in a pretty tough spot at the
(11:28):
moment because of these twin blockades, these mutual blockades. The
war could restart at any moment. And Donald Trump was
actually briefed on Thursday by Saint com on New that
US Central Command on potential new military operations, and I
think we have to see that as a real possibility
here that Donald Trump will resort to force and resort
(11:52):
to further military action to try and break Iran and
try and break this blockade by force, whether or not
New Zealand or anyone else joins him. I think he
is helping on winning here in his view what he thinks.
Speaker 1 (12:06):
And that's where we go. I think that's one side
bent on winning it at any costs sort of that.
Speaker 2 (12:13):
There's a real possibility unfortunately, that we're going to have
another round of conflict here before this has solved around
the negotiating table. And I think this is when you
then needs to be advocating very strongly behind the scenes diplomatically,
is to do a deal. Now, do this deal of
lifting the blockades and then talking further, because a military
(12:33):
solution isn't a solution. We've seen that we had almost
forty days of war. It got us nowhere, just led
to a lot of destruction, not just in Iran but
across the Gulf States, across the wide and Middle East.
We don't want to go back to that. It didn't
actually solve anything. And for Donald Trump, he needs to
just understand that that is just not a way forward
that he has to go to diplomacy, and he has to,
(12:56):
I think, come to terms with the fact that maybe
he has lost here and that's a tough peril for
him to swallow. The US midterms look for its midterms elections.
Midterm elections are coming up in six months, and Donald
Trump's approval rating is already at the lowest it's been.
It's that thirty four percent, which is also about the
same number of Americans who support the war, same proportion
(13:18):
who support the war. But things are already quite in
a bad way. They could get worse, and Donald Trump's
own party, supposedly Republicans, are rarely going to be in
for it. When petrol in the United States is above
the US four dollars a gallon mark, which I mean,
it's a lot better than it is here, but that's
very high for the United States. And remember they're going
(13:39):
into what they call driving season in the United States,
the busy summer travel period, and having this war continuing,
when Donald Trump wants to go off to China in
a couple of weeks and meet Jijingping is coming up
to summer travel period, summer holiday period in the United States,
and mid terms are looming. Does Donald Trump really want
to go through the US summer with these blockades still
(14:02):
in place, no solution are probably not.
Speaker 1 (14:05):
He will need to frame it though, as a win.
I mean, there'll be people within within the American administration
be presenting ideas to him as how he can frame
it as a win, because there's no way he's going
to admit a loss otherwise it's going to go on forever.
Speaker 2 (14:17):
Indeed, and so I think in behind the scenes, this
is what needs to be happening to try and give
Donald Trump off rance because it's really all about his
decision making and thought process, and to give him some
way of casting this as a victory. And I think
even the Iranian side realizes this. They've put forward in
some of their proposals just in the last few days,
things like they will do things first. You know, they
(14:41):
will lift their blockade first before Donald Trump lifts his,
for example, and that would allow Donald Trump to tout
this as some great victory and as a sign of generosity.
I'm going to also temporarily lift my blockade for a
short period. Things like this can be done, you know,
when it comes to the announcement, the rhetoric around things,
but in effect Iran will have won this war, but
(15:03):
I think they largely have already simply by surviving. The
regime is still in place. Remember Donald Trump was talking
about regime change when he launched this wall two months ago,
and the regime is still very much firmly in place.
RAM still has all of its in rich uranium. I
think those issues have to be worked through, but that's
probably for another day. Right now, these blockades simply need
(15:25):
to be lifted, and I think New Zealand behind the
scenes needs to be working in the diplomatic track, and
I think that's probably the most valuable thing and most
valuable contribution that New Zealand can make right now. It's
on diplomacy rather than you know, look, we can send
us friggered up there. I think we probably will when
it comes to this surveillance and patrol mission of this
trade off moves led by the British and the French
(15:46):
downs down the track. But I think we can do
things right now, and all they require is our voice. Earlier,
Christopher Luxon has been using that was his calls behind
the scenes with other world leaders. But that goes right
the way down through the Foreign Ministry and Winston Peters,
the Foreign Minister and all the other diplomats. So I
think there's lots that New Zealand can be doing right now.
Speaker 1 (16:05):
Okay, hey, thanks so much for your time. Jeffrey, great
to speak to you. That is Jeffrey Miller. He is
a geopolitical analyst. For more from the Weekend Collective. Listen
live to news talks it'd be weekends from three pm,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks.
I'd be yes. So New Zealand has received a preliminary
proposal from the United States requesting help in opening the
Strait of hall Moves, possibly as part of a coalition,
is reported by The Wall Street Journal that would restore
access to the strait. So yes, apparently we're just one
(00:27):
of a number of countries that have received the proposal.
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters not surprisingly says we're seeking
more information and as such won't be making a decision
anytime soon. And geopolitical analyst Dr Jeffrey Miller is with us. Jeffrey,
Good afternoon, Good afternoon, Tim, So help with opening the
(00:49):
Straits of hor Moves. What sort of help does What
does that look like in practical terms?
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Do you think it all sounds rather innocuous to from
what you've read out there? And I think listeners might
be confused because this all might seem quite familiar, because
Christopher lux and tended a virtual meeting led by the
kar Starma back in April on a plan to patrol
the Strait of for Moves and ensure freedom of navigation.
What's important to know here is that this is completely separate.
(01:17):
So this US led initiative called the Maritime Freedom Construct,
it all sounds very nice and about getting the straight
open and everything, and who wouldn't want that, But actually
I think it's a trojan horse here for actually getting
other countries involved in breaking the Iranian blockade by force.
And if you read through some of the details that
(01:37):
the Wall Street Journal had in its report it was
leaked to the diplomatic cable from the United States, it
kind of makes that clear eventually you get to it.
It talks all about information sharing and these kinds of things,
but it says in the cable and I quote, collective
action is essential to demonstrate unified resolve and impose meaningful
(01:58):
costs on Iranian obstruction of transit through the Strait. So
I think what it's really about is building a military
coalition to go in by force stop the Iranian blockade
or break the Iranian blockade of the strade of her
moves and solve things militarily. And I can see why
Winston Peters is kicking for touch on all of this,
because it's highly sensitive and it's very different to the
(02:19):
British proposal or the British French proposal, which is really
after a ceasefire is in place more than monitoring and
surveillance of patrol mission, where I think New Zealand probably
could make some contribution.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
So should we be more interested in looking at a
plan I think France and UK a France and UK
lead plan as well. Would that be a better move
for US? Or does that sort of enable Washington to
sort of wash its hands of the whole thing and
leave us with the bag of whatever we're holding.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
Yeah, I think they're two different proposals to and I
think the US one is one for right now to
try and aggressively break Iran's blockade by force. The British
and French propose is sort of under the assumption that
there will be some deal done. So this is far
as in place that there will be some deal done
between Iran and the United States, and then a multinational
(03:16):
coalition made up of dozens of countries, potentially under British
and French leadership, will go in there will clear the
strait of minds. I mean, that's not something New Zealand
can do, but it's something that the British and the French,
the Europeans can do, and then the likes of New
Zealand the smaller countries will come in with a frigate
or two and patrol the strait and just give confidence
to commercial shipping companies that they can transit through the
(03:39):
Strait safely. And that sends a signal also to insurance
companies to reduce the premiums that look, this, there's a
safe waterway. The world's militaries are there patrolling the strait.
It is safe to cross. And that's in one way.
One of the biggest problems that we've had is this
crisis are part quite apart from the fact that there
are drones and missiles that have been flying across the Strait,
(04:01):
is simply that insurance companies won't give you insurance if
you want to go through this trait, you're on your own,
and shipping companies say, well, we're not going through this trade.
And that's why the blockade has been so successful. It's
worked very well from a round perspective.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
Is this something where Donald Trump this is sort of
like a transactional strategy. His approach to it's like I
just asked these guys to step up, But really what's
behind it is really the danger of escalation and being
drawn into a wider conflict.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
Indeed, because you think, what will around do if a
whole lot of countries come to the US, come to
the United States AID and start this blockade busting mission.
I think probably they will fight back. And I think
that suddenly the war is back on, and suddenly New
Zealand and other countries are on the American side. And
I think, as I said, well, this is what it's
(04:49):
really about. It's a trojan horse forgetting the likes of
New Zealand on board and supporting the United States in
this war.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
If I'm anyone in the decision making part of our government,
I'm listening, I'd be listening to you and go, there's
no bloody way we're going anywhere near this.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
Indeed, I I mean, I think that's I mean, with
Donald Trump, you don't want to say no. You just
don't want to say yes, and you want to keep saying,
you want to keep saying you're considering the proposal and
studying it, but you just don't want to actually give
a firm no because that will make him angry. And
you see what's happened with Germany most recently in the
last couple of days, Donald Trump says he's withdrawing five
(05:25):
thousand troops from Germany as punishment because Frederick Mounts, the
German Chancellor, spoke out against the United States against Donald
Trump and said it was a humiliation what they were
suffering at the moment. That didn't go down well. I mean,
you've seen others like Spain and Italy as well of
coming for a tongue lashing with by Donald Trump and
for threats. I mean, Donald Trump threatened a trade embargo
(05:47):
against Spain for their position on the war. And so
you seem infants to make itself as smaller target as possible,
keep their head down, not say no, mister Trump, We're
not doing this. Just just keep studying it, keep studying it,
keeps studying it, and eventually hope that it all just
dies a death in the back, because hopefully there will
(06:07):
be some deal done and that makes all of this move.
And I think that's perhaps one of the most encouraging things.
Over the last couple of days, there's a new Uranian
proposal for a deal that we'll see the blockades lifted,
a mutual lifting of the blockades in a first phase
of the deal done over a period of up to
a month and putting them nuclear issue to one side.
(06:29):
And that's not going to be to Donald Trump's liking,
but I think perhaps it's the only way forward here
is to give us as simple as a deal as
possible just on the blockade issue, and then move to
the next phase, because I think dealing with all of
those issues at once was just creating a very, very
complicated situation. And this is still complicated stuff what we're
(06:52):
dealing with. And I don't think Donald Trump will like it,
because what does he get out of this for nothing
at the end of the day, apart from a whole
lot of chaos. And it's difficult to see what Donald
Trump wins out of this, and you know he loves
project himself as the winner. But it'd be good for
the whole world if we actually had a lifting of
the blockade, even if that wasn't a permanent end to
(07:15):
potentially all the issues between the United States and Iran,
just some kind of more durable ceasefire that had that
lifting of the blockades, because what we've got at the
moment is this sort of uneasy truce where there is
a seafire in place, and yet the blockades are still
firmly in place and ships are not transitting through the
strait uple moves, even if drones and missiles are not
(07:36):
crossing the strait like they were back in March and
early April.
Speaker 1 (07:41):
Is that, in fact our sort of not get out
of jail free, but our strategies say we look forward
to helping once certain conditions have been fulfilled, like New
Zealand will plats part and then we just basically outline
under what conditions we will help once the hostilities have finished.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
Yeah. I think that's what news End in effectively is doing.
I don't think they will probably want to say that
in so many words of time on. I think it's
probably the smart movement, probably what the government is doing,
and the effect is just saying, well, we're looking at
the proposal carefully. They've probably got no intention of signing
up to this US proposal. I think New Zealand will
be involved, probably in some form in that British and
(08:20):
French mission, which is more of as I say, patrol
and a monitoring mission once there's a cease fire in place,
a durable cease fire once the blockades have been lifted.
I think that mission will get underway. I mean, there
needs to be some kind of mission to just clear
the minds that have been made in the strait and
then just ensure that traffic is flowing through the strait.
(08:40):
But I think one thing that New Zealand really could
contribute more towards him is in the deal making behind
the scenes and the diplomacy, because I think ultimately the
issue is that you can't solve this conflict by military means.
I think the last two months have taught us that
and that we need a diplomatic deal of political solution,
(09:01):
and it may have escaped some listeners, but on Thursday night,
I think Donald sorry, Christopher Luxen had phone calls with
the President of the United Arab Emirates and also the
Sultan of Oman for example. These are two of the
golf states that are there on the front lines. And
that these aren't the first phone calls that Christopher Luxeon
is held with golf leaders. He's talked with an Air
(09:23):
of Katara, he had earlier calls with the president of
the UAE, for example. So there's a lot of, I
think things going on behind the scenes, and I think
this has when New Zealand could be particularly valuable speaking
up for dialogue, diplomacy, ed escalation and in the peace,
in the peace building behind the scenes, because this in
the end, I mean, you look at what New Zealand's
(09:45):
military capabilities are and its naval capabilities. We know that
they're not really that substantial, you know, so what can
we do? Yes, we can send one frigate up there,
and New Zealand has sent frigates up to the Middle
East for decades, actually to Kaha was up there last year.
But the reality is that that's you know, for a
(10:05):
small state like New Zealand, military capabilities are quite limited
in scope. When it comes to diplomas well. Diplomacy is
all about people fundamentally, and I think small countries like
New Zealand can be quite useful in terms of go
between and that's what we need at the moment, lots
of discussion and go between. Pakistan has been doing that,
(10:26):
but I think there's room for plenty of others to
be involved, and often it's small countries like Oman that's
become involved in all of this. So I think New
Zealand could play it, definitely play its part, along with
the likes of Switzerland Oman. Smaller states can get involved
and keep those negotiations going because there is their military solution.
Speaker 1 (10:44):
Well, just in terms of the cessation of hostilities, the
sixty day declaration that the war being terminated, what pressure
I mean that because I think Trump needs some ascent
from Congress to continue. So how does that affect, you know,
just what's going to happen with the tensions between Iran
and the US, which obviously need to be resolved to
the point that we can actually get on with things.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
Yeah, I think you're absolutely right. I mean that was
really about the War Powers Act, and really it was
more of a technicality than anything. I mean, look, we
are in a cease fire phase. We've been in a
cease fire for almost a month now, and yet oil
is still at one hundred and eight dollars a barrel
bring oil, And that tells you everything about the situation
we're in. We're in a pretty tough spot at the
(11:28):
moment because of these twin blockades, these mutual blockades. The
war could restart at any moment. And Donald Trump was
actually briefed on Thursday by Saint com on New that
US Central Command on potential new military operations, and I
think we have to see that as a real possibility
here that Donald Trump will resort to force and resort
(11:52):
to further military action to try and break Iran and
try and break this blockade by force, whether or not
New Zealand or anyone else joins him. I think he
is helping on winning here in his view what he thinks.
Speaker 1 (12:06):
And that's where we go. I think that's one side
bent on winning it at any costs sort of that.
Speaker 2 (12:13):
There's a real possibility unfortunately, that we're going to have
another round of conflict here before this has solved around
the negotiating table. And I think this is when you
then needs to be advocating very strongly behind the scenes diplomatically,
is to do a deal. Now, do this deal of
lifting the blockades and then talking further, because a military
(12:33):
solution isn't a solution. We've seen that we had almost
forty days of war. It got us nowhere, just led
to a lot of destruction, not just in Iran but
across the Gulf States, across the wide and Middle East.
We don't want to go back to that. It didn't
actually solve anything. And for Donald Trump, he needs to
just understand that that is just not a way forward
that he has to go to diplomacy, and he has to,
(12:56):
I think, come to terms with the fact that maybe
he has lost here and that's a tough peril for
him to swallow. The US midterms look for its midterms elections.
Midterm elections are coming up in six months, and Donald
Trump's approval rating is already at the lowest it's been.
It's that thirty four percent, which is also about the
same number of Americans who support the war, same proportion
(13:18):
who support the war. But things are already quite in
a bad way. They could get worse, and Donald Trump's
own party, supposedly Republicans, are rarely going to be in
for it. When petrol in the United States is above
the US four dollars a gallon mark, which I mean,
it's a lot better than it is here, but that's
very high for the United States. And remember they're going
(13:39):
into what they call driving season in the United States,
the busy summer travel period, and having this war continuing,
when Donald Trump wants to go off to China in
a couple of weeks and meet Jijingping is coming up
to summer travel period, summer holiday period in the United States,
and mid terms are looming. Does Donald Trump really want
to go through the US summer with these blockades still
(14:02):
in place, no solution are probably not.
Speaker 1 (14:05):
He will need to frame it though, as a win.
I mean, there'll be people within within the American administration
be presenting ideas to him as how he can frame
it as a win, because there's no way he's going
to admit a loss otherwise it's going to go on forever.
Speaker 2 (14:17):
Indeed, and so I think in behind the scenes, this
is what needs to be happening to try and give
Donald Trump off rance because it's really all about his
decision making and thought process, and to give him some
way of casting this as a victory. And I think
even the Iranian side realizes this. They've put forward in
some of their proposals just in the last few days,
things like they will do things first. You know, they
(14:41):
will lift their blockade first before Donald Trump lifts his,
for example, and that would allow Donald Trump to tout
this as some great victory and as a sign of generosity.
I'm going to also temporarily lift my blockade for a
short period. Things like this can be done, you know,
when it comes to the announcement, the rhetoric around things,
but in effect Iran will have won this war, but
(15:03):
I think they largely have already simply by surviving. The
regime is still in place. Remember Donald Trump was talking
about regime change when he launched this wall two months ago,
and the regime is still very much firmly in place.
RAM still has all of its in rich uranium. I
think those issues have to be worked through, but that's
probably for another day. Right now, these blockades simply need
(15:25):
to be lifted, and I think New Zealand behind the
scenes needs to be working in the diplomatic track, and
I think that's probably the most valuable thing and most
valuable contribution that New Zealand can make right now. It's
on diplomacy rather than you know, look, we can send
us friggered up there. I think we probably will when
it comes to this surveillance and patrol mission of this
trade off moves led by the British and the French
(15:46):
downs down the track. But I think we can do
things right now, and all they require is our voice. Earlier,
Christopher Luxon has been using that was his calls behind
the scenes with other world leaders. But that goes right
the way down through the Foreign Ministry and Winston Peters,
the Foreign Minister and all the other diplomats. So I
think there's lots that New Zealand can be doing right now.
Speaker 1 (16:05):
Okay, hey, thanks so much for your time. Jeffrey, great
to speak to you. That is Jeffrey Miller. He is
a geopolitical analyst. For more from the Weekend Collective. Listen
live to news talks it'd be weekends from three pm,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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