March 22, 2026 • 40 mins
Tensions are high for everyone right now, and I know most people will either be nervously checking their KiwiSaver balance on the daily, or completely ignoring it until things calm down a bit.
The most repeated advice advisors will be giving right now is to simply ignore your balance for the time being - that by the time the first bomb dropped, it was too late to change anything. But is that really true?
LISTEN ABOVE
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Listen
Watch
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks B.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
You don't have to put your.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
God shuder, You've got you still got.
Speaker 3 (00:26):
You.
Speaker 4 (00:33):
Yes, Welcome in or welcome back to the Weekend Collective.
I'm Tim Beverage and for this hour through till six,
it's smart Money. We want your cause, we love your
calls and your participation eighteen eighty or text nine two
nine to two. And look, the gist of this this
hour is Look, look, I don't I don't mind confessing
(00:53):
I have been a little tense, more tense in the
last couple of days.
Speaker 3 (00:58):
It's actually is it from the point of view, it's
a point of view of the knock on effects of
what's going on with a run and all that sort
of thing. And you know, and I think we've all
learned that by now, you know, once bad news breaks,
don't touch you care we saver, especially if you're trying
to shift to a more conservative fund. If it's funny,
it's if the one obvious lesson. I think that we've
(01:19):
learned that when you've got an aggressive or an optimistic
sort of investment strategy, getting your money growing faster when
bad news happens, and the and the bottom drops out
of your fund a little bit, it's too late. Okay,
So I think the one thing we've learned it could
be that it's one of the most repeated bits of advice,
that basic bits of advice that advisors and non advisors
(01:42):
would give as well. Ignore your balance for the time being.
But but but but but but but but is that
true across the board? I mean, are there other choices
that might be available to you? You know, it is
it time to make a plan and shift your money?
Maybe would you ever go to a more aggressive fund,
wait for the bottom to drop out of the market,
and go I'm going to go in hard it is
(02:04):
you know, that's sounds like a sort of an advanced
play for experienced investors. But there are people who say, oh, yeah,
I just watched the market fall out of that and
then I just went in boots and all and I
made a fortune. Or is that you know they say that,
you know, it's times like these fortune favors of the bold?
Or is that just a meaningless cliche of the smart
asses who tell you about their wins and never tell
(02:25):
you about the losses. Because that's the one you've got
to be wary of somebody says, oh, yeah, I saw
the market dropped out in the s andp I climbed
them with everything I had and made a fortune. And
they admit to tell you that maybe a couple of
years before they've done the same thing and taken quite
a nasty hit. Anyway, so it all ties into what
are you doing with your investments? And everyone's in Most
(02:46):
people are in ki we saber and what do times
like this mean for your investments, your other investments? We
want to know what you what you think on eight
hundred and eighty ten eighty or text nine two nine two?
Is it the time to make make hay while the
sun ain't shining? There's a new cliche, turn that one
in its head anyway, to discuss this and give us reckons,
(03:09):
not specific financial advice, I should say, you'll hear that.
That's the other thing you learn from listen to smart money,
No specific financial advice. He is the founder and managing
director of Kurra Wealth. And his name is Rupert Carlyon
and Carlyon and he's with us for Smart Money. Rupert, Hello,
I could see that. Sorry, I'll turn your mic on.
You can say good evening, again, good evening, how are
(03:31):
you good things? I could see your your I was
watching your facial expressions as I was reading that description out,
and then I mentioned that, but you know how people say, oh,
you've got to go on hard when the market drops.
And then I said, well, of course they don't tell
you about their losses, and there was a sort of
recognition of like, yes.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
I was a little bit annoyed actually because I've made
a few notes thinking what I was going to comment on,
and that was going to be the one thing that
I was going to say, Oh, everyone will always tell
you about their wins and no one's ever going to
tell you about their losses.
Speaker 3 (03:59):
Okay, bye bye, Yeah, you're taking all the good stuff. Actually,
funny thing that you know, what's being funny? My producer
and I prepare my air introduction remarks, so I'm not
aiming a ring too much. And that was the one
bit I ad libbed. At the time. I thought, hang
on a minute, there are those people who talk it
up and the ad libs stole your thunder. I'm feeling
very smug.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
Well maybe financial advice maybe is.
Speaker 3 (04:22):
Oh I don't know about that, but actually it is
that the investment environment, it's more tumultuous, I guess now,
But there are I actually have wondered sometimes that if
you were in an aggressive ish fund, okay, it might
(04:42):
have taken a hit. Now, there are some people who who,
if they can afford to take this strategy, would say,
you know what, the market's dropped, it's not going to
stay there forever. I'm going to up my contributions for
a bit.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
Is that reckless, No, not at all. I think that
that's a pretty smart strategy.
Speaker 3 (04:58):
So by low cell, I mean that's a cliche, that's cliche.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
It's extremely hard to do. There's a couple of important
facts about the market that everyone needs to understand.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
Okay, let's get into it.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
So the facts about the market. So generally market a
well diversified portfolio, which is something that reflects the market
it should typically historically has always just kept on going up.
There will be periods of massive decline. So on average,
historically every seven years there was a decline of thirty
kind of anywhere between twenty to forty percent every five
(05:30):
to seven years, and then it would take a couple
of years for that to recover. That cycle has become
a whole lot faster. In the post COVID environment, we've
seen in the last four years or five years, we've
seen about kind of four market declines which have come
close to twenty percent or some have gone a little
bit further, but they always seem to recover within a
(05:53):
couple of months.
Speaker 3 (05:54):
Are there some people who literally will look at the
big five year curve or the ten year investment curve
and see the curve going down, down, down, down down,
Bye bye bye bye, buy and just wait and because
the patient they're not expecting it to recover, you know,
to go boom far, but they just and then they'll
you know, they'll set it go up and they'll go
watch it go down again five seventy ten years and
(06:15):
go Are there people like that to do?
Speaker 2 (06:16):
There are a lot of people that do that. The
problem is, though, it's all about deciding when to sell
and when to buy, because what we know, right, it's
that so the majority of returns are actually across a
very small set of days, and so recovery from a crisis.
A good example of this is well, the two big
ones right post GFC. The US Congress, they passed the
(06:38):
stimulus bill in March twenty two thousand and nine, the
US market was up twenty odd percent.
Speaker 5 (06:44):
Now in the four or five days after they passed that, right, well,
if they passed on after they passed the stimulus in
two thousand and nine to start cover from the GFC COVID,
the market everyone said, we're still everything's still staffed, and
we're then kind of six months to the market to recover.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
And I think the problem is if you're taking the
approach of waiting kind of I'm going to sell out,
I'm going to reinvest when things get really good. Generally,
by the time you've got confidence things are good, it's
already recovered. And that's why we always say don't sell
and then try and buy again at the low point,
because you just won't manage to time it and you
won't get the low point on the flip side. Because
(07:24):
if you're confident in markets, which I am, and if
you're confident.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
That markets will always recover.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
If you wait and you see markets are down twenty
twenty five percent, is that a good time to find
a little bit of extra cash on the side and
put it in.
Speaker 3 (07:36):
Yeah, most definitely, because actually, for gosh, those times have
been recently with the Trump administration mark too. There have
been some quite short term pockets where he's I don't know,
said something the tariffs and everything, and everything's crashed and
it's all doom and gloom, and then of course you
see it recover and you go, of course it was
going to recover, But of course we see it in
(07:57):
hindsight and think, of course it was going.
Speaker 2 (07:58):
To Hindsight is beautiful in market.
Speaker 3 (08:00):
Marvelous, isn't it? The problem with markets right now?
Speaker 2 (08:04):
And whether this is a or not, hindsight will only
tell us as markets don't believe a word that Trump says.
So Taco Trump is the analogy that the financial press
now uses about about Trump. So for those that listening,
Trump always chickens out because we saw it in Liberation Day, right,
So first of April last year, we had the tariff announcements,
(08:27):
market dropped fifteen percent over the next couple of days,
and what happens is the day afterwards, everything's reversed, everything
comes back. We've seen it over the last three weeks
where we've had the attacks, happened, everything We're going to
obliterator on blah blah blah. Oil spikes one hundred and
twenty we'll be out of here, and in the next
(08:49):
couple of days oil immediately drops below one hundred markets cover.
Speaker 3 (08:53):
So markets are listening to them.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
That they are listening. But what's really interesting, and no
one would kind of believe this if you'd said straight
of him was closed for for better part of three weeks,
ready and likely to be at least another three weeks.
Speaker 3 (09:07):
Let's be honest. Now I'm going to write that down.
I'm calling that a prediction. We've got letter news. No,
we'll let the news know. Fund investment manager predicts three
more weeks for straight upmost And if you're right, man, you're.
Speaker 2 (09:24):
I know that the beauty about working for a small
shoppers you're allowed to make predictions. But look, if we
said that at the start, oil would be higher and
markets markets are only down three or four percent at
the moment, So markets.
Speaker 3 (09:39):
Of markets are not sort of just going well, you know,
it's not great. So it's a bit of a bit
of movement.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
And so oil markets are reacting kind of though there's
a big divergence between what we call the paper market,
which is where on the big global kind of commodities
exchanges are trading versus what's actually being bought out of
the Middle East, whereas so the paper markets are say
one hundred and ten, but actually people are paying one
hundred and fifty to two hundred exactly. So the financial
(10:07):
markets are saying, don't worry about this. Trump's about to
reverse course. We don't really care the US stock exchange,
that's down to that. But it's because everyone and we
saw it, even we've seen it over the last twenty
four hours. Right whereas yesterday everyone got themselves comfortable again
because we had all of a sudden Trump saying don't worry,
(10:27):
We're almost done. Military operations are almost going to be
kind of pulled out and pulled back, only to wake
up this morning to or not this morning, this afternoon
open up Bloomberg to We're going to bomb all the
power stations next week.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
So if you don't open the straits are the power stations,
which are yes, Iran's power station. And also because they've
they've been attacking everyone they can get, you know.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
But so you've got these statements which are so far
left and right and all over the place that everyone's
just confused. And I think everyone just believes that if
at the moment markets react and get bad, he'll pull back.
And that's the only explanation you can give to why
markets are very singuline about what's ending.
Speaker 6 (11:11):
Well.
Speaker 3 (11:11):
I sort of would like the markets in a way,
just for the sake of the politics to be a
bit more disastrous then, because then he might actually because
he's more driven, it seems, by what the price of something,
you know, the oil, and he's more driven by that
than whether in fact he's creating the climate for really
potentially bigger, major global conflict and problems, which is keeping
(11:35):
me away awake at night almost literally.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
Oh he does not. He the only thing that's ever
and if we look at his first term and so
far on the second term, the only thing that's ever
rained him in is the S and P five hundred.
Speaker 3 (11:47):
So when would the S and P? Oh, this is
interesting because it's a we're tying money into politics, aren't we?
And intuitively it just sounds spot on. But when does
the S and P start to get influenced by the
oil prices.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Already kind of starting to happen, and that there is
a huge amount of fear. Then it's kind of you
can see there's a lot of trepidation. Liquidity levels are low,
which means people aren't really buying and selling a huge amount.
Speaker 3 (12:17):
I'm glad you actually defined that, because it's one of
those expression here liquidity levels. And I must admit I
hear that expression all the time, and I go and
if somebody said to me, what's that mean, I'll go,
actually don't know.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
They can finance it, creating a whole new language to
make us sound very smart.
Speaker 3 (12:32):
But it's all simple stuff. This is what is why
we love having your you know, it's it's it's money
for dummies, to be honest. Why that's a different topic
in my industry.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
Probably none of it's that complicated. The simpler it is,
the easier it is. But it's as simple as I think.
Oil has probably got a bit further to go. So
if we sit there and say at one hundred and
twenty dollars, markets kind of all of a sudden, scared
that this is going to go for longer, they don't
see the off ramp. That's when we start to see
the S and P four and at all.
Speaker 3 (13:04):
Four P quickly because of the low liquidity, and that's
when he will be like generals, we need to get
on top of this.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
Well, I think we'll wake up to an announcement in
New Zealand and it'll be with one. Iran is completely destroyed.
There's nothing left, and it'll be as simple as that.
Speaker 3 (13:18):
But you see, this is where the politics. What are
the markets listen to because as you say, they sort
of listen to him, but they don't so they will
still be looking for the reality because if he says
it's over and the straits of all Moves are still closed,
then they're not listening to what he says. They're looking
at what's going on on the ground.
Speaker 2 (13:39):
They are, but markets will take some time to reflect that, right.
I think markets will always believe that if the aggression stops,
if the bombing stops, we also have to recognize that
it is an Iran's best interest for the Strait of
Homerz to be back open because they need the revenue
as well.
Speaker 3 (13:59):
Actually, that was the thing that gave me almost a
sense of a tiny, tiny, tiny whisper of optimism, is
that even Trump has said he's going to allow it.
There was some oil that Iran's got at sea and
he says, I'm not going to interfere with that because
and that's that's the market driven president. He knows that
energy is important. And no matter how much he hates
(14:20):
the Mueller's in Iran, that oil.
Speaker 2 (14:24):
It's whispering hope any seaborn, any Iranian oil that's currently
on the ocean is now not no longer subject to sanctions.
Speaker 3 (14:35):
And he also kicked net in Yahoo's but for bombing
at LNG place, as everyone should be kicking Netanyahu's but.
And we're in danger of getting away from the money side.
But this is where it all ties in.
Speaker 2 (14:45):
It's all there, right, so, and I think the problem
is bringing it back to the Kisa conversation, right because
it is so random. We are dependent on what tweet
comes out next, and no one really knows. And the
fact that we're going from one extreme to the complete
opposite within the space of kind of two ours. That's
why markets are just sitting there going, well, are we
(15:08):
really materially different to Liberation Day? Are we materially different
to all this other stuff that Trump talks about? Not really,
We just kind of hopefully he falls into line pretty
quickly before it all turns to complete custom.
Speaker 3 (15:20):
Actually, just tell me about when you know, this is
so many interesting things to dig into, But you talked
about the paper markets for oil is that because that
includes people and you know, the shorting things.
Speaker 2 (15:38):
There'll be a little bit of that there, but there'll
be but the differences. It's kind of so when you buy,
when you buy on the Commodities Exchange, you buy a
contract to either purchase and generally, because you can't really
take ownership immediately, you'll buy a contract to take ownership
in a week, a month, whatever the timeframe is. And
so that's what we call it the paper money because
(15:59):
it's not really trading real oil. Right, you go and
buy it on the CME, which is the Chicago mccontole
Exchange and US and then the goal is that you
kind of move that piece of paper and you sell
it to someone else before it kind of turns, because
let's be honest, if you're a hedge fund, what are
you going to do with it? At one point two
million pounds of people are.
Speaker 3 (16:20):
Still paying the hard price, they're still paying more. What
happens then, well then you can sell it for the
hard price. Oh and then made they're going to make
your profits.
Speaker 2 (16:28):
But what's interesting is the immediate delivery, which is the
hard price significantly.
Speaker 3 (16:33):
Expectation when I buy it for if.
Speaker 2 (16:35):
I'm buying on the paper market, So the paper.
Speaker 3 (16:37):
Market is predicting that you're not going to be able
to sell it for one hundred and fifty a barrel. So God,
it's complicated. Are there some investment markets where they've created
these sort of conventions that the average person wouldn't have
a clue about, but somehow people are making a lot
of money out of it.
Speaker 2 (16:52):
I mean, the future is the one that well, it's
all about the fun ortization of the system, right, So
coming back to I mean.
Speaker 3 (16:58):
Your gold do you own the goal? Do you do
own a piece of paper that says you own that? Exactly?
Speaker 2 (17:02):
And because you're kind of sitting there going so, oil
or gold both great examples of I'm a financial institution
and I like to trade oil or gold. But can
I go and build a vault that stores a couple
of kilos of whole one hundred killos of gold? No,
because that's going to be exorbitantly expensive. Can I take
delivery of my million barrels of oil that I've just
gone and purchased?
Speaker 5 (17:23):
No?
Speaker 2 (17:23):
What am I going to do with a hundred million
dollars worth?
Speaker 3 (17:25):
It will?
Speaker 2 (17:26):
And so what we've done is we've created this financial
world to kind of ascribe value and there's real stuff
that sits behind and I do family.
Speaker 5 (17:34):
I want to reiterate that there is always very That's
the conversation you end up in as well when you're
talking about the banking system when they say, oh, they're
just creating money out of nowhere.
Speaker 3 (17:42):
It's like, well no, but that's a different conversation. But
it's related, isn't.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
A hundred percent?
Speaker 3 (17:47):
Okay, right, we're going to take a break. Gosh, we
have talked about a bunch of things, but it is
fascinating in these times of trouble. But the broad question is, look,
are you someone who worries about their key we savor
in times like this, or do you just follow the
advice that we've been dishing out over the years generally
(18:07):
when times turn bad, just don't even look at it
unless you've got some other strategy you want to follow.
Don't even look at it, because that's the whole point
of key we save, isn't it rupert, Is that you're
not supposed to be watching your money day by day
and strategizing, because that's the point of key, we say,
But there are other people who do that for it yes.
Speaker 2 (18:27):
The way way I like to say it is Ki
Saber is a very long term decision, and you're making
your fund decision and your asset allocation decisions, so where
your money is invested on the long term fundamentals. The
last thing you want to do is let short term
data points move those long term fundamentals.
Speaker 3 (18:45):
Right, we want your calls on it. And actually, are
you someone who thinks, you know what, are there some
bad news at the moment? I trust my fund's advisors
to be pretty pretty canny. So I'm going to actually
start sticking in a bit more money in and do
you just base it on the headlines or what eight
hundred eight, ten and eight I'm going to We're going
to kick digging into this whole paper money and the
value of oil and actually as well the reliability of
(19:07):
financial markets when it comes to sort of political predictions.
Now that's the topic I've just thrown and off of
the hoof. But I think we're halfway into it already,
aren't we reap it. I'm with Rupert Carlyon. He's wealth
the founder of Kura Wealth and the managing director of
at the same time, Busy Guy twenty six past five yes,
(19:27):
and we're with Rupert carlyon the Kura Wealth Founder talking about,
you know, the whole tie in with politics and investments
and what's going on with I Ran and the Middle
East and Trump and politics and the price of oil
and actually what it means for your investments. In fact,
if you've got any questions for Rupert as well, because
he and I will talk till the cows come home.
(19:48):
But the fascinating thing we're just getting into a little
bit is that how you were saying in the break
that you know, while it's a stressful time for people
and worrying about filling up at the tank and stuff,
from an investment and sort of from your point of view,
it's also so fascinating.
Speaker 2 (20:07):
Look, it's absolutely fascinating. The last probably I would again
the post COVID environment. It's been a fascinating time, right
because I think we've got the three or four trains
that we've noticed, you've got much higher retail participation in
the market, so a lot more platforms. It's not just
Cheesy's here in New Zealand Robin Hood in the US,
(20:28):
it's kind of retail involvement in the stock market has
become significantly higher you've got the cycle has become much shorter.
You've got much sharper dips, and you've got much stronger
recoveries and much shorter recovery.
Speaker 3 (20:40):
It's a word for that, It's tumultuous.
Speaker 2 (20:43):
That's a great word, much more tumultuous. I bring a
lot of it back to this whole narrative around social media,
the fact that that the historically it was the media
that kind of drove the narrative around a lot of
this stuff. Today it's now it's actually now driven by
social media because that's where most people get most of
(21:04):
their information from. And even if we come back to
supposedly the reputable sources, which is the mainstream media, all
of the studies have shown that actually, well sorry headline readers.
They're headlines, right, and so a journalist is rewarded based
on the headlines they get. And when we look at
financial news, we can see that they get significantly more
clicks on negative headlines, which drives a lot of them.
Speaker 3 (21:26):
Well, that actually ties into the whole I mean, this
gets into a political discussion around the way I digest news,
and I find that there's so much hyperbole out there.
I'm quite reticent to Actually, I don't know just to.
I don't know where to turn in terms of getting
getting a sort of measured take on where things are
actually at as opposed to the headline grabbing stuff which
(21:48):
I almost they turned me off now.
Speaker 2 (21:50):
But is that because it's some stressed Well no, I
think there's two things that have happened. I think the
media environment has changed materially. We don't have the level
of journalism and the investment and journalism that there once
Well it's.
Speaker 3 (22:02):
The investment, really investment, it's pete on the ground.
Speaker 2 (22:06):
It's the investment that's died off, right, And kind of
again one of the conversations we're having in the break,
which means that because there isn't a significant investment in journalism,
particularly in financial journalism that there was, what that means
is that you're now relying on external partners experts, so
polling all of that kind of stuff.
Speaker 3 (22:22):
By people.
Speaker 2 (22:24):
And unfortunately, and I'm no different, Let's be honest, we
are all coming giving up our time to talk to
media and because we have a view and we have
something to sell. And I think that's probably the bit
that's kind of this whole idea of a partisan media
as being hollowed out by the lack of funding.
Speaker 3 (22:42):
Yeah, I don't know what you've got to sell. I
mean you do have your own fund, of course, but
you're quite modest about pushing it on.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
No, that's why I'm not a very good salesman. I'd
just like to chance.
Speaker 3 (22:53):
I was like, what's selling anyway? Look, let's take some calls.
It's a fascinating discussion because the other thing I'm going
to remind me to dig into this after we've talked
to Ross, But it's the idea of how where you
can get your political sort of predictions from because markets
don't get tied up with emotion. Markets get tied up
with realities and facts, and they're a little bit cynical
(23:15):
in a way. And that's quite interesting to see what
as you say that they don't get tired caught up
with the hyperble of politicians. Let's let's take a call
from Russ though.
Speaker 7 (23:25):
Yeah, afternoon com and Rupert.
Speaker 6 (23:28):
Yes, yeah, I'll just changed my key, say and I
went through Facebook Holleen for a called money Guide, I
think he's called and he did a bit of assessment.
Speaker 7 (23:41):
Tommy and I put on fat and figures down on
for him and then stay. Later, he brings his beck
and says, I've got your plan to go ahead with
changing it. I said, I'm going over to Milford.
Speaker 3 (23:57):
Your provider.
Speaker 7 (23:57):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, provider. I changed right. And he
comes back and he goes, I'm going to advise you
to go to Milford, but I want you to go
to sort of the middle of the range. And I says, no,
I'm not going to change it. I actually want to
go higher.
Speaker 3 (24:14):
You want to go aggressive.
Speaker 7 (24:16):
Yeah, well, just one blow aggressives like I am.
Speaker 3 (24:19):
Now, yeah, I mean, I mean just in terms of
broad I don't know how many different categories there are
of fun. But you're not sitting in the middle. You
want to go slightly more.
Speaker 2 (24:26):
So you'll be in a growth fund versus there aggressive.
Speaker 3 (24:28):
That's the word of growth.
Speaker 7 (24:30):
Yeah. But no, he wanted me to go in the middle,
and I said no, yeah.
Speaker 2 (24:34):
And I think it's a good conversation to have because
I think that in the financial theory behind a lot
of this stuff hasn't actually moved for the better part
of about forty years, even fifty actually nineteen seventies, when
a lot of this financial theory had got built. But
what we've seen over the last probably particularly the last
(24:54):
ten years, it's been about a difference in correlations, which
is the super technical way of saying how bonds and
equities move together, difference in returns. And I think that
it is a really important conversation. We should be having
people staying for longer at slightly higher risk allocations. I
think we make a big mistake in this country of
moving people too soon to conservative.
Speaker 3 (25:18):
So was your recommendation made to you can taken considering
whether your gen X or a baby boomer or whatever. Ross.
Speaker 7 (25:26):
Yeah, on the baby, I'm like a year born in
sixty four, but I've been in the she Maks for
at least of teen years. And it was so bizarre
that all of a sudden the markets that are going
to I could see they were already dropping, and then
all of a sudden he wants me to go to that,
and I'm going up because I see Tom right from
the statuses are look to say was just the sort
(25:48):
of a bit of pinny in the right pockets because
they've got menage funds and I've been in the sheer
mark and all that, and I'm uncomfortable, you know, Okay.
Speaker 3 (25:56):
So you could afford to say I want to be
more aggressive.
Speaker 2 (25:59):
But that's good advice though from his side, right, so
as much as we kind of like it might have
been on the conservative side. But at the same time,
I think problem in financial services, and I don't think
this is a problem by though. The good thing about
financial so our job is to protect clients. So our
job is to make sure we never put you at
more risk than you think you can handle. And then
the moment, the beauty about working with a financial advisor,
(26:19):
like what you've done, is the moment that you have
said you want to go more aggressive. Hopefully he sat
you down and worked and kind of did a session
around the implications of that decision with you to allow
you to make your own decision. But at least now
you've got the confidence to understand what the right answer
is and why you've made the decision you've made it.
Speaker 3 (26:39):
Yeah, good, thanks for us.
Speaker 5 (26:41):
Thanks, you're skeptical on that answer, but still there's a
regulatory regime which basically means we have to do that.
Speaker 3 (26:51):
Got on your ass, Thank you, that's quite funny.
Speaker 2 (26:54):
It's a great answer.
Speaker 3 (26:55):
We've agreeing with something while shaying you don't really agree. Yes,
Look we're going to take a moment and come back
with We were with Rupert Carl and we're talking about just
investing in these times when oil's sort of going well,
you know, we're not sure where it's going at the moment,
but the straits of her moves are still closed. We've
got rhetoric from Trump saying he's going to bomb the
(27:17):
power stations in Iran if it's not open in a
couple of days. And there's got to be an end
in sight in the end, somehow, there's got to be
a vested interest in all parties to go. Actually, you
know what, everyone, and no matter where you are in
the world, we need energy, and yeah, we know where
we get it from, don't we Twenty percent of it
through the straits of all moves. It's twenty two minutes
(27:38):
to six. News Talks, said B. News Talk said B. Now, look,
we by the way, we do have some texts worried
about where we're passing our judgment. Someone says, come on, guys,
Iran is a bad player in the world market. Yes,
we know that, we know that, and we're not going
to get into We're not talking about who we hate
the most. It's a question of where it goes from here.
So we're looking at it from a market point of
(27:59):
view with Riper Carlin from curl Wealth. But actually before
we get onto because we are going to touch on
the inflation conversation and things that will be keeping Nikola
Willis awake at night possibly, but we just earlier on
I said, I wanted to just touch on the fact
that the markets aren't reacting dramatically to what's going on,
(28:22):
because it's almost like they are the emotionless fact sort
of cynical view of where it's going to end up.
And in the break it was almost something where I thought,
maybe I should feel better because the markets aren't panicking.
When the markets start to panic, that's when I should
be lying awake at not going, oh.
Speaker 2 (28:38):
Oh well, I think the markets are supposedly the unemotional
kind of piece, right, because it's not a single person.
That is hundreds of thousands of well informed, well read
people bringing all of the divergent views together.
Speaker 3 (28:54):
Right.
Speaker 2 (28:54):
It's not like a social media platform which is going
to take you down a rabbit hole. This is actually
there's only one rabbit hole to go down, and so
that's why it brings together all of those divergent views.
At the moment markets clearly are going the prevailing narrative
is nothing too much is going to happen here, and
he's going to chicken out, and whether that's true or not,
time will only tell. I would actually take your statement
(29:17):
slightly further because I think so that's a much easier
conversation to have because you know that that is the
everything coming together. My view on when markets do follow
the twenty thirty percent, we know that's going to happen,
because that's just life. The moment we think that that
can't happen, that's when we've got ourselves into real problems.
And so my view, it's horrible. It's very hard for
(29:41):
my clients. It's very hard for people when markets do full.
My job is to make sure I can educate people
ahead of that happening so that they don't stress and
they don't worry when it does.
Speaker 3 (29:51):
Reminds me of that comedy line. No one expects the
Spanish inquisition, but that's your job to expect it exactly.
That is my job.
Speaker 2 (29:59):
My job is to expect that, and my job is
to prepare people for exactly when that happens.
Speaker 3 (30:03):
I just think because we have been introducing the political
nature of discussion. I just read this text. Come on, guys,
Iran is a bad player in the world market. Trump
in America had to do something ran with a nuclear weapon.
We're just devastating. No evidence of that. By the way,
with the narrative of the stock market up or down
is a very short sighted view. If the people of
Iran are free from the repressive regime, the oil prices
will settled to under forty dollars a barrel. This from Richard. Richard,
(30:24):
you're dreaming if you think that suddenly the people of
Iran are going to be freed from the Muller's.
Speaker 2 (30:31):
My job is not to have a view on that.
My job is to take a view on what is
the current events, what is the narrative, and what does
that mean for markets? I don't look, I might have
a personal view, Yeah, but fundamentally that is a relevant
for me because we've actually had because I've been quite
vocal on that Trump and why markets have been quite
sanguine on this, and so we've actually got quite a
(30:51):
bit of hate mail on this at CODA. What with
that same narrative saying why hate mail? What we got
a whole lot of emails basically talking about the fact
that hold on a set they needed to go, they
needed to do that. I need to be much stronger
against and positive towards Trump.
Speaker 3 (31:07):
Well, it's not that's that's not your job. My job
is to You're not a political commentator. You're just saying,
show me the money. One of that great line in
the film, wasn't it hi, guys and enjoying the show.
If there's just a couple of quick text questions for you.
If I had one hundred K sitting around, would it
pay to put it into my offset? Thereby getting around
(31:28):
six percent? I can't see it managed fun getting that
straight off the bat when they mean offset the mortgage
in other words, yeah.
Speaker 2 (31:35):
Because yeah, so lower mortgage means you're guaranteed to return.
Speaker 3 (31:38):
And that's tax. So let's tax a tax.
Speaker 2 (31:41):
So six percent pre tax. Look, it depends entirely on
what your objectives are, how long you want to stay invested.
An aggressive style fund is delivered about twelve percent over
the last five years. Yeah, we'll let continue.
Speaker 3 (31:53):
Who knows?
Speaker 2 (31:55):
I think you again?
Speaker 3 (31:56):
Burn the hand and two in the bush exactly right.
Speaker 2 (31:58):
And it depends entirely on what your objective is if
you're a long term investor.
Speaker 3 (32:02):
Maybe maybe not? Okay, Tim, please your guess that's Rupert.
What the difference is between a financial advisor and a
wealth advisor? I know they are distinctly different, but I
unsure the actual mechanics for each many thanks Lynn. Is
there a difference in definition technically?
Speaker 2 (32:16):
No, I would argue a wealth advisor as a financial
advisor who specializes an investment products. So you can have
a financial advisor that will be a mortgage advisor, an
insurance advisor, and a wealth advisor or an investment advisor.
There are generally three different types.
Speaker 3 (32:33):
Of So wealth advisor sounds more optimistic. You know, financial
could be good or bad news. Wealth just sounds like wealth.
Speaker 2 (32:40):
I want to help you build a better future.
Speaker 3 (32:43):
Yeah, okay, Look, time is flying, inflation, oil, inflation effects
where to.
Speaker 2 (32:51):
This is the bait that I think markets aren't Ah,
so sorry, markets are actually interest rate markets are saying
inflation is here and inflation is going to be higher.
And so you've seen the interest rates move up quite.
Speaker 3 (33:05):
Do we see that just in what the bank's offer
from mortgage.
Speaker 2 (33:07):
No, we see that in what we call the wholesale
rate so which is where the bank's going to get
their funding from.
Speaker 3 (33:12):
So we call them swap rate.
Speaker 2 (33:14):
So one, two, three year rates kind of have risen significantly.
They rise because they expect inflation to come up and
that are then that's kind of they expect the ocr
to need to rise to kind of deal with that inflation.
The problem with what we're seeing right now is even
though it's only been three or four years, three or
four weeks sorry, and even though it might reverse pretty quickly,
(33:36):
people are already making pricing decisions off the back of it.
We talked about in New Zealand. In New Zealand's already
put up at the minimum flight priced by twenty dollars.
That's not going anywhere down, that's not falling anywhere. Food
that's about to start rising. You think about, so oil
makes up about five to ten percent of all in
pot costs and if you go, we've had a sixty
(33:57):
percent increase in that and all cost of oil over
the space of the last.
Speaker 3 (34:01):
Four weeks, and that's three to seven percent rise and
food is it.
Speaker 2 (34:04):
No so across all everything. So just for making the
maths pretty easy, Okay, let's say it's ten percent, so
that means that's an extra zero point six to zero
point seven percent of inflation right there, right, okay, and
that's we're already starting to see that come through. So
we are going to see higher inflation, and that's going
to mean that will mean an inflation unfortunately, acts like
(34:25):
a little bit of a tax. So people rather than
spending money on holidays away, rather than spending money going
out to Pontsomi road and eating kind of over priced
beers and pizzas, they're just going to need to spend
that money on food, on petrol, all of those core things.
And so that's why I think with higher inflation, we
are likely to see a pullback in our economic growth,
(34:48):
which is going to get hard, and it's going to
be hard for these own businesses.
Speaker 3 (34:51):
Actually, the we were talking affair about this and I
think I can't mean if I mentioned it yesterday on
the show, but I was surprised when we were looking
at you know, I was looking at whether we take
our break and go somewhere, you know, go down to
the South Island in winter, and I just assumed because
of all the headlines around in New Zealand and look,
the fares have gone up, but the probably the thing
(35:13):
is no one's booking at that time. I got cheap
fares cheaper than I would normally get because while the
while fears might have gone up ten or twenty dollars,
instead of me only being able to book the cheap
the expensive fare, the cheap fares are the cheapest fears
are still available as opposed to maybe this time last
(35:33):
year they wouldn't have been. So I was surprised.
Speaker 2 (35:36):
It's demand pulling back because people are now pitch fight
about petrol.
Speaker 3 (35:40):
They're just scared.
Speaker 2 (35:41):
And where people are scared and they've also got money
going on their core things, they just stop spending money.
Speaker 3 (35:46):
Do you think I mean, I know the budgeting is
not your bag so much, but do you think that
there are certain headlines that freak people out more than
they need to? And I don't want to be I
don't want to be fickle about the pressure that households
are under because I'm noticing on our budget and our
house sold, we're going backwards compared to what we normally
a you know, life's more expensive. But then I think, okay, well,
(36:06):
you know PETREL's gone up, it's going to be an
extra twenty bucks every week or something. I don't know
what it is going to be to film attank, but
it has gone up. I don't know. I'm just trying
to tell myself that, Okay, well I might not get
bacon and eggs twice a week.
Speaker 2 (36:22):
But we're also in a world where so petrel one
I think I find really fascinating right now, So petrol,
we're kind of moved back into a new podium of
truth talking about petrol.
Speaker 3 (36:31):
Stores and what.
Speaker 2 (36:35):
But the truth is, though that PETREL's no more expensive
than it was in twenty twenty two. Also, oil is
no more.
Speaker 3 (36:41):
Thanking for that one. That's what I remember, because every
time I used to fill up at two fifty, I'm going, well,
it's better than three to twenty, which I remember back
in twenty twenty.
Speaker 2 (36:49):
Yeah, not that long ago. And so we had it
in we've had it in the kind of that which
was post Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It's one hundred dollars
oil is not that unusual, and so we've had that
a lot. And so I get the risk, isn't he it?
But I think there's a lot of I don't know
(37:10):
if scaremongering is probably too strong a word, but there's
a lot of unfounded fear right now in my personal opinion.
Speaker 3 (37:18):
Yeah, Actually that gets back to the way we consume
news is that there's a lot of hyperbole. And I said,
Hosking said the same thing. Actually he said there was
one pole that was bad for Luxen and he was
being chased through the airport on one pole and another
pole sells a different story in this and it's just crickets.
And I worry that we get that treatment on any
(37:41):
sort of bad news, that it's like, you know, oh,
the ship is sinking when you know, maybe the winds
dropped a little bit.
Speaker 2 (37:48):
But it comes back to click through rates, clicktory rates
on websites, they are always going to be significantly high
for negativity, which is what drives a.
Speaker 5 (37:55):
Lot of this.
Speaker 3 (37:56):
I'm going to come back in just a moment where
with Rupert Carline, he's a Courra wealth founder. Fascinating discussion
all this stuff. Actually, I think I'm feeling a little
less stressed about it all because nothing like information is
there as long as it's not all bad. It's eight
and a half minutes to Sick News Talk z B.
We've got Rupert Carline with me just to wrap up
Smart Money. And by the way, if you've missed any
(38:17):
of the hours, the podcast will be up pretty quickly
after six o'clock. See can go and get it online
news talks b or cut it in Z but Rupert
actually just a trivial question. Somebody said, what's your honest
opinion on investment platforms like the Hatch and the chas
eas versus financial advisors? Well, one costs a bit more.
I think probably.
Speaker 2 (38:36):
Look, there's a price. It depends on your knowledge and
it depends on your capability. So I'm a big believer
in Cheeseys and Hatch and those platforms. I think they've
done a great job at bringing the international markets, in
particular to every day cauees's.
Speaker 3 (38:50):
But you've got to know what you do.
Speaker 2 (38:52):
So if anyone is using those platforms, my very strong
advice is to not personal advice, but just find yourself
a couple of global ETFs or maybe your ATF an
exchange trade fund, and just do that. You don't need
to do a whole lot. Don't overthink it. If you
don't understand it, don't do it. I've had a lot
(39:14):
of friends and people that will come to me and
say I've had a shares's portfolio for the last four
or five years. I don't understand it. My kiwisaver has
gone up ten twelve percent every year, or on average
that's up ten twelve percent per year, but my shares's
account's largely flat. Wise that I had a quick look
at their portfolio and I go, well, because they've invested
on a whole lot of random stuff, right, So keep
(39:37):
it simple. My advice to anyone that's not confident in
what they're doing, just try and copy what your QI
saving manager is doing. And that's the safest stance.
Speaker 3 (39:44):
And on the other note as well, I guess I
take some solace what we were saying that the markets
aren't freaking out about oil at the moment. So maybe
that's something where we can take a bit of a
deep breath.
Speaker 2 (39:53):
I think, Yeah, markets aren't freaking out, and let's look
at track record. He has checked out every single time.
Why will this time be different?
Speaker 3 (40:01):
Well, indeed, anyway, Hey, great to you on mate, really
fascinating discussion. Let's Rippert carlyon from Coural Wealth. Thanks my producer,
Tyre Award. We'll be back at the same tom next
weekend Sunday at six is Next.
Speaker 1 (40:21):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to News
Talk ZB weekends from three pm, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio.
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks B.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
You don't have to put your.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
God shuder, You've got you still got.
Speaker 3 (00:26):
You.
Speaker 4 (00:33):
Yes, Welcome in or welcome back to the Weekend Collective.
I'm Tim Beverage and for this hour through till six,
it's smart Money. We want your cause, we love your
calls and your participation eighteen eighty or text nine two
nine to two. And look, the gist of this this
hour is Look, look, I don't I don't mind confessing
(00:53):
I have been a little tense, more tense in the
last couple of days.
Speaker 3 (00:58):
It's actually is it from the point of view, it's
a point of view of the knock on effects of
what's going on with a run and all that sort
of thing. And you know, and I think we've all
learned that by now, you know, once bad news breaks,
don't touch you care we saver, especially if you're trying
to shift to a more conservative fund. If it's funny,
it's if the one obvious lesson. I think that we've
(01:19):
learned that when you've got an aggressive or an optimistic
sort of investment strategy, getting your money growing faster when
bad news happens, and the and the bottom drops out
of your fund a little bit, it's too late. Okay,
So I think the one thing we've learned it could
be that it's one of the most repeated bits of advice,
that basic bits of advice that advisors and non advisors
(01:42):
would give as well. Ignore your balance for the time being.
But but but but but but but but is that
true across the board? I mean, are there other choices
that might be available to you? You know, it is
it time to make a plan and shift your money?
Maybe would you ever go to a more aggressive fund,
wait for the bottom to drop out of the market,
and go I'm going to go in hard it is
(02:04):
you know, that's sounds like a sort of an advanced
play for experienced investors. But there are people who say, oh, yeah,
I just watched the market fall out of that and
then I just went in boots and all and I
made a fortune. Or is that you know they say that,
you know, it's times like these fortune favors of the bold?
Or is that just a meaningless cliche of the smart
asses who tell you about their wins and never tell
(02:25):
you about the losses. Because that's the one you've got
to be wary of somebody says, oh, yeah, I saw
the market dropped out in the s andp I climbed
them with everything I had and made a fortune. And
they admit to tell you that maybe a couple of
years before they've done the same thing and taken quite
a nasty hit. Anyway, so it all ties into what
are you doing with your investments? And everyone's in Most
(02:46):
people are in ki we saber and what do times
like this mean for your investments, your other investments? We
want to know what you what you think on eight
hundred and eighty ten eighty or text nine two nine two?
Is it the time to make make hay while the
sun ain't shining? There's a new cliche, turn that one
in its head anyway, to discuss this and give us reckons,
(03:09):
not specific financial advice, I should say, you'll hear that.
That's the other thing you learn from listen to smart money,
No specific financial advice. He is the founder and managing
director of Kurra Wealth. And his name is Rupert Carlyon
and Carlyon and he's with us for Smart Money. Rupert, Hello,
I could see that. Sorry, I'll turn your mic on.
You can say good evening, again, good evening, how are
(03:31):
you good things? I could see your your I was
watching your facial expressions as I was reading that description out,
and then I mentioned that, but you know how people say, oh,
you've got to go on hard when the market drops.
And then I said, well, of course they don't tell
you about their losses, and there was a sort of
recognition of like, yes.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
I was a little bit annoyed actually because I've made
a few notes thinking what I was going to comment on,
and that was going to be the one thing that
I was going to say, Oh, everyone will always tell
you about their wins and no one's ever going to
tell you about their losses.
Speaker 3 (03:59):
Okay, bye bye, Yeah, you're taking all the good stuff. Actually,
funny thing that you know, what's being funny? My producer
and I prepare my air introduction remarks, so I'm not
aiming a ring too much. And that was the one
bit I ad libbed. At the time. I thought, hang
on a minute, there are those people who talk it
up and the ad libs stole your thunder. I'm feeling
very smug.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
Well maybe financial advice maybe is.
Speaker 3 (04:22):
Oh I don't know about that, but actually it is
that the investment environment, it's more tumultuous, I guess now,
But there are I actually have wondered sometimes that if
you were in an aggressive ish fund, okay, it might
(04:42):
have taken a hit. Now, there are some people who who,
if they can afford to take this strategy, would say,
you know what, the market's dropped, it's not going to
stay there forever. I'm going to up my contributions for
a bit.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
Is that reckless, No, not at all. I think that
that's a pretty smart strategy.
Speaker 3 (04:58):
So by low cell, I mean that's a cliche, that's cliche.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
It's extremely hard to do. There's a couple of important
facts about the market that everyone needs to understand.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
Okay, let's get into it.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
So the facts about the market. So generally market a
well diversified portfolio, which is something that reflects the market
it should typically historically has always just kept on going up.
There will be periods of massive decline. So on average,
historically every seven years there was a decline of thirty
kind of anywhere between twenty to forty percent every five
(05:30):
to seven years, and then it would take a couple
of years for that to recover. That cycle has become
a whole lot faster. In the post COVID environment, we've
seen in the last four years or five years, we've
seen about kind of four market declines which have come
close to twenty percent or some have gone a little
bit further, but they always seem to recover within a
(05:53):
couple of months.
Speaker 3 (05:54):
Are there some people who literally will look at the
big five year curve or the ten year investment curve
and see the curve going down, down, down, down down,
Bye bye bye bye, buy and just wait and because
the patient they're not expecting it to recover, you know,
to go boom far, but they just and then they'll
you know, they'll set it go up and they'll go
watch it go down again five seventy ten years and
(06:15):
go Are there people like that to do?
Speaker 2 (06:16):
There are a lot of people that do that. The
problem is, though, it's all about deciding when to sell
and when to buy, because what we know, right, it's
that so the majority of returns are actually across a
very small set of days, and so recovery from a crisis.
A good example of this is well, the two big
ones right post GFC. The US Congress, they passed the
(06:38):
stimulus bill in March twenty two thousand and nine, the
US market was up twenty odd percent.
Speaker 5 (06:44):
Now in the four or five days after they passed that, right, well,
if they passed on after they passed the stimulus in
two thousand and nine to start cover from the GFC COVID,
the market everyone said, we're still everything's still staffed, and
we're then kind of six months to the market to recover.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
And I think the problem is if you're taking the
approach of waiting kind of I'm going to sell out,
I'm going to reinvest when things get really good. Generally,
by the time you've got confidence things are good, it's
already recovered. And that's why we always say don't sell
and then try and buy again at the low point,
because you just won't manage to time it and you
won't get the low point on the flip side. Because
(07:24):
if you're confident in markets, which I am, and if
you're confident.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
That markets will always recover.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
If you wait and you see markets are down twenty
twenty five percent, is that a good time to find
a little bit of extra cash on the side and
put it in.
Speaker 3 (07:36):
Yeah, most definitely, because actually, for gosh, those times have
been recently with the Trump administration mark too. There have
been some quite short term pockets where he's I don't know,
said something the tariffs and everything, and everything's crashed and
it's all doom and gloom, and then of course you
see it recover and you go, of course it was
going to recover, But of course we see it in
(07:57):
hindsight and think, of course it was going.
Speaker 2 (07:58):
To Hindsight is beautiful in market.
Speaker 3 (08:00):
Marvelous, isn't it? The problem with markets right now?
Speaker 2 (08:04):
And whether this is a or not, hindsight will only
tell us as markets don't believe a word that Trump says.
So Taco Trump is the analogy that the financial press
now uses about about Trump. So for those that listening,
Trump always chickens out because we saw it in Liberation Day, right,
So first of April last year, we had the tariff announcements,
(08:27):
market dropped fifteen percent over the next couple of days,
and what happens is the day afterwards, everything's reversed, everything
comes back. We've seen it over the last three weeks
where we've had the attacks, happened, everything We're going to
obliterator on blah blah blah. Oil spikes one hundred and
twenty we'll be out of here, and in the next
(08:49):
couple of days oil immediately drops below one hundred markets cover.
Speaker 3 (08:53):
So markets are listening to them.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
That they are listening. But what's really interesting, and no
one would kind of believe this if you'd said straight
of him was closed for for better part of three weeks,
ready and likely to be at least another three weeks.
Speaker 3 (09:07):
Let's be honest. Now I'm going to write that down.
I'm calling that a prediction. We've got letter news. No,
we'll let the news know. Fund investment manager predicts three
more weeks for straight upmost And if you're right, man, you're.
Speaker 2 (09:24):
I know that the beauty about working for a small
shoppers you're allowed to make predictions. But look, if we
said that at the start, oil would be higher and
markets markets are only down three or four percent at
the moment, So markets.
Speaker 3 (09:39):
Of markets are not sort of just going well, you know,
it's not great. So it's a bit of a bit
of movement.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
And so oil markets are reacting kind of though there's
a big divergence between what we call the paper market,
which is where on the big global kind of commodities
exchanges are trading versus what's actually being bought out of
the Middle East, whereas so the paper markets are say
one hundred and ten, but actually people are paying one
hundred and fifty to two hundred exactly. So the financial
(10:07):
markets are saying, don't worry about this. Trump's about to
reverse course. We don't really care the US stock exchange,
that's down to that. But it's because everyone and we
saw it, even we've seen it over the last twenty
four hours. Right whereas yesterday everyone got themselves comfortable again
because we had all of a sudden Trump saying don't worry,
(10:27):
We're almost done. Military operations are almost going to be
kind of pulled out and pulled back, only to wake
up this morning to or not this morning, this afternoon
open up Bloomberg to We're going to bomb all the
power stations next week.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
So if you don't open the straits are the power stations,
which are yes, Iran's power station. And also because they've
they've been attacking everyone they can get, you know.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
But so you've got these statements which are so far
left and right and all over the place that everyone's
just confused. And I think everyone just believes that if
at the moment markets react and get bad, he'll pull back.
And that's the only explanation you can give to why
markets are very singuline about what's ending.
Speaker 6 (11:11):
Well.
Speaker 3 (11:11):
I sort of would like the markets in a way,
just for the sake of the politics to be a
bit more disastrous then, because then he might actually because
he's more driven, it seems, by what the price of something,
you know, the oil, and he's more driven by that
than whether in fact he's creating the climate for really
potentially bigger, major global conflict and problems, which is keeping
(11:35):
me away awake at night almost literally.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
Oh he does not. He the only thing that's ever
and if we look at his first term and so
far on the second term, the only thing that's ever
rained him in is the S and P five hundred.
Speaker 3 (11:47):
So when would the S and P? Oh, this is
interesting because it's a we're tying money into politics, aren't we?
And intuitively it just sounds spot on. But when does
the S and P start to get influenced by the
oil prices.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Already kind of starting to happen, and that there is
a huge amount of fear. Then it's kind of you
can see there's a lot of trepidation. Liquidity levels are low,
which means people aren't really buying and selling a huge amount.
Speaker 3 (12:17):
I'm glad you actually defined that, because it's one of
those expression here liquidity levels. And I must admit I
hear that expression all the time, and I go and
if somebody said to me, what's that mean, I'll go,
actually don't know.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
They can finance it, creating a whole new language to
make us sound very smart.
Speaker 3 (12:32):
But it's all simple stuff. This is what is why
we love having your you know, it's it's it's money
for dummies, to be honest. Why that's a different topic
in my industry.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
Probably none of it's that complicated. The simpler it is,
the easier it is. But it's as simple as I think.
Oil has probably got a bit further to go. So
if we sit there and say at one hundred and
twenty dollars, markets kind of all of a sudden, scared
that this is going to go for longer, they don't
see the off ramp. That's when we start to see
the S and P four and at all.
Speaker 3 (13:04):
Four P quickly because of the low liquidity, and that's
when he will be like generals, we need to get
on top of this.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
Well, I think we'll wake up to an announcement in
New Zealand and it'll be with one. Iran is completely destroyed.
There's nothing left, and it'll be as simple as that.
Speaker 3 (13:18):
But you see, this is where the politics. What are
the markets listen to because as you say, they sort
of listen to him, but they don't so they will
still be looking for the reality because if he says
it's over and the straits of all Moves are still closed,
then they're not listening to what he says. They're looking
at what's going on on the ground.
Speaker 2 (13:39):
They are, but markets will take some time to reflect that, right.
I think markets will always believe that if the aggression stops,
if the bombing stops, we also have to recognize that
it is an Iran's best interest for the Strait of
Homerz to be back open because they need the revenue
as well.
Speaker 3 (13:59):
Actually, that was the thing that gave me almost a
sense of a tiny, tiny, tiny whisper of optimism, is
that even Trump has said he's going to allow it.
There was some oil that Iran's got at sea and
he says, I'm not going to interfere with that because
and that's that's the market driven president. He knows that
energy is important. And no matter how much he hates
(14:20):
the Mueller's in Iran, that oil.
Speaker 2 (14:24):
It's whispering hope any seaborn, any Iranian oil that's currently
on the ocean is now not no longer subject to sanctions.
Speaker 3 (14:35):
And he also kicked net in Yahoo's but for bombing
at LNG place, as everyone should be kicking Netanyahu's but.
And we're in danger of getting away from the money side.
But this is where it all ties in.
Speaker 2 (14:45):
It's all there, right, so, and I think the problem
is bringing it back to the Kisa conversation, right because
it is so random. We are dependent on what tweet
comes out next, and no one really knows. And the
fact that we're going from one extreme to the complete
opposite within the space of kind of two ours. That's
why markets are just sitting there going, well, are we
(15:08):
really materially different to Liberation Day? Are we materially different
to all this other stuff that Trump talks about? Not really,
We just kind of hopefully he falls into line pretty
quickly before it all turns to complete custom.
Speaker 3 (15:20):
Actually, just tell me about when you know, this is
so many interesting things to dig into, But you talked
about the paper markets for oil is that because that
includes people and you know, the shorting things.
Speaker 2 (15:38):
There'll be a little bit of that there, but there'll
be but the differences. It's kind of so when you buy,
when you buy on the Commodities Exchange, you buy a
contract to either purchase and generally, because you can't really
take ownership immediately, you'll buy a contract to take ownership
in a week, a month, whatever the timeframe is. And
so that's what we call it the paper money because
(15:59):
it's not really trading real oil. Right, you go and
buy it on the CME, which is the Chicago mccontole
Exchange and US and then the goal is that you
kind of move that piece of paper and you sell
it to someone else before it kind of turns, because
let's be honest, if you're a hedge fund, what are
you going to do with it? At one point two
million pounds of people are.
Speaker 3 (16:20):
Still paying the hard price, they're still paying more. What
happens then, well then you can sell it for the
hard price. Oh and then made they're going to make
your profits.
Speaker 2 (16:28):
But what's interesting is the immediate delivery, which is the
hard price significantly.
Speaker 3 (16:33):
Expectation when I buy it for if.
Speaker 2 (16:35):
I'm buying on the paper market, So the paper.
Speaker 3 (16:37):
Market is predicting that you're not going to be able
to sell it for one hundred and fifty a barrel. So God,
it's complicated. Are there some investment markets where they've created
these sort of conventions that the average person wouldn't have
a clue about, but somehow people are making a lot
of money out of it.
Speaker 2 (16:52):
I mean, the future is the one that well, it's
all about the fun ortization of the system, right, So
coming back to I mean.
Speaker 3 (16:58):
Your gold do you own the goal? Do you do
own a piece of paper that says you own that? Exactly?
Speaker 2 (17:02):
And because you're kind of sitting there going so, oil
or gold both great examples of I'm a financial institution
and I like to trade oil or gold. But can
I go and build a vault that stores a couple
of kilos of whole one hundred killos of gold? No,
because that's going to be exorbitantly expensive. Can I take
delivery of my million barrels of oil that I've just
gone and purchased?
Speaker 5 (17:23):
No?
Speaker 2 (17:23):
What am I going to do with a hundred million
dollars worth?
Speaker 3 (17:25):
It will?
Speaker 2 (17:26):
And so what we've done is we've created this financial
world to kind of ascribe value and there's real stuff
that sits behind and I do family.
Speaker 5 (17:34):
I want to reiterate that there is always very That's
the conversation you end up in as well when you're
talking about the banking system when they say, oh, they're
just creating money out of nowhere.
Speaker 3 (17:42):
It's like, well no, but that's a different conversation. But
it's related, isn't.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
A hundred percent?
Speaker 3 (17:47):
Okay, right, we're going to take a break. Gosh, we
have talked about a bunch of things, but it is
fascinating in these times of trouble. But the broad question is, look,
are you someone who worries about their key we savor
in times like this, or do you just follow the
advice that we've been dishing out over the years generally
(18:07):
when times turn bad, just don't even look at it
unless you've got some other strategy you want to follow.
Don't even look at it, because that's the whole point
of key we save, isn't it rupert, Is that you're
not supposed to be watching your money day by day
and strategizing, because that's the point of key, we say,
But there are other people who do that for it yes.
Speaker 2 (18:27):
The way way I like to say it is Ki
Saber is a very long term decision, and you're making
your fund decision and your asset allocation decisions, so where
your money is invested on the long term fundamentals. The
last thing you want to do is let short term
data points move those long term fundamentals.
Speaker 3 (18:45):
Right, we want your calls on it. And actually, are
you someone who thinks, you know what, are there some
bad news at the moment? I trust my fund's advisors
to be pretty pretty canny. So I'm going to actually
start sticking in a bit more money in and do
you just base it on the headlines or what eight
hundred eight, ten and eight I'm going to We're going
to kick digging into this whole paper money and the
value of oil and actually as well the reliability of
(19:07):
financial markets when it comes to sort of political predictions.
Now that's the topic I've just thrown and off of
the hoof. But I think we're halfway into it already,
aren't we reap it. I'm with Rupert Carlyon. He's wealth
the founder of Kura Wealth and the managing director of
at the same time, Busy Guy twenty six past five yes,
(19:27):
and we're with Rupert carlyon the Kura Wealth Founder talking about,
you know, the whole tie in with politics and investments
and what's going on with I Ran and the Middle
East and Trump and politics and the price of oil
and actually what it means for your investments. In fact,
if you've got any questions for Rupert as well, because
he and I will talk till the cows come home.
(19:48):
But the fascinating thing we're just getting into a little
bit is that how you were saying in the break
that you know, while it's a stressful time for people
and worrying about filling up at the tank and stuff,
from an investment and sort of from your point of view,
it's also so fascinating.
Speaker 2 (20:07):
Look, it's absolutely fascinating. The last probably I would again
the post COVID environment. It's been a fascinating time, right
because I think we've got the three or four trains
that we've noticed, you've got much higher retail participation in
the market, so a lot more platforms. It's not just
Cheesy's here in New Zealand Robin Hood in the US,
(20:28):
it's kind of retail involvement in the stock market has
become significantly higher you've got the cycle has become much shorter.
You've got much sharper dips, and you've got much stronger
recoveries and much shorter recovery.
Speaker 3 (20:40):
It's a word for that, It's tumultuous.
Speaker 2 (20:43):
That's a great word, much more tumultuous. I bring a
lot of it back to this whole narrative around social media,
the fact that that the historically it was the media
that kind of drove the narrative around a lot of
this stuff. Today it's now it's actually now driven by
social media because that's where most people get most of
(21:04):
their information from. And even if we come back to
supposedly the reputable sources, which is the mainstream media, all
of the studies have shown that actually, well sorry headline readers.
They're headlines, right, and so a journalist is rewarded based
on the headlines they get. And when we look at
financial news, we can see that they get significantly more
clicks on negative headlines, which drives a lot of them.
Speaker 3 (21:26):
Well, that actually ties into the whole I mean, this
gets into a political discussion around the way I digest news,
and I find that there's so much hyperbole out there.
I'm quite reticent to Actually, I don't know just to.
I don't know where to turn in terms of getting
getting a sort of measured take on where things are
actually at as opposed to the headline grabbing stuff which
(21:48):
I almost they turned me off now.
Speaker 2 (21:50):
But is that because it's some stressed Well no, I
think there's two things that have happened. I think the
media environment has changed materially. We don't have the level
of journalism and the investment and journalism that there once
Well it's.
Speaker 3 (22:02):
The investment, really investment, it's pete on the ground.
Speaker 2 (22:06):
It's the investment that's died off, right, And kind of
again one of the conversations we're having in the break,
which means that because there isn't a significant investment in journalism,
particularly in financial journalism that there was, what that means
is that you're now relying on external partners experts, so
polling all of that kind of stuff.
Speaker 3 (22:22):
By people.
Speaker 2 (22:24):
And unfortunately, and I'm no different, Let's be honest, we
are all coming giving up our time to talk to
media and because we have a view and we have
something to sell. And I think that's probably the bit
that's kind of this whole idea of a partisan media
as being hollowed out by the lack of funding.
Speaker 3 (22:42):
Yeah, I don't know what you've got to sell. I
mean you do have your own fund, of course, but
you're quite modest about pushing it on.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
No, that's why I'm not a very good salesman. I'd
just like to chance.
Speaker 3 (22:53):
I was like, what's selling anyway? Look, let's take some calls.
It's a fascinating discussion because the other thing I'm going
to remind me to dig into this after we've talked
to Ross, But it's the idea of how where you
can get your political sort of predictions from because markets
don't get tied up with emotion. Markets get tied up
with realities and facts, and they're a little bit cynical
(23:15):
in a way. And that's quite interesting to see what
as you say that they don't get tired caught up
with the hyperble of politicians. Let's let's take a call
from Russ though.
Speaker 7 (23:25):
Yeah, afternoon com and Rupert.
Speaker 6 (23:28):
Yes, yeah, I'll just changed my key, say and I
went through Facebook Holleen for a called money Guide, I
think he's called and he did a bit of assessment.
Speaker 7 (23:41):
Tommy and I put on fat and figures down on
for him and then stay. Later, he brings his beck
and says, I've got your plan to go ahead with
changing it. I said, I'm going over to Milford.
Speaker 3 (23:57):
Your provider.
Speaker 7 (23:57):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, provider. I changed right. And he
comes back and he goes, I'm going to advise you
to go to Milford, but I want you to go
to sort of the middle of the range. And I says, no,
I'm not going to change it. I actually want to
go higher.
Speaker 3 (24:14):
You want to go aggressive.
Speaker 7 (24:16):
Yeah, well, just one blow aggressives like I am.
Speaker 3 (24:19):
Now, yeah, I mean, I mean just in terms of
broad I don't know how many different categories there are
of fun. But you're not sitting in the middle. You
want to go slightly more.
Speaker 2 (24:26):
So you'll be in a growth fund versus there aggressive.
Speaker 3 (24:28):
That's the word of growth.
Speaker 7 (24:30):
Yeah. But no, he wanted me to go in the middle,
and I said no, yeah.
Speaker 2 (24:34):
And I think it's a good conversation to have because
I think that in the financial theory behind a lot
of this stuff hasn't actually moved for the better part
of about forty years, even fifty actually nineteen seventies, when
a lot of this financial theory had got built. But
what we've seen over the last probably particularly the last
(24:54):
ten years, it's been about a difference in correlations, which
is the super technical way of saying how bonds and
equities move together, difference in returns. And I think that
it is a really important conversation. We should be having
people staying for longer at slightly higher risk allocations. I
think we make a big mistake in this country of
moving people too soon to conservative.
Speaker 3 (25:18):
So was your recommendation made to you can taken considering
whether your gen X or a baby boomer or whatever. Ross.
Speaker 7 (25:26):
Yeah, on the baby, I'm like a year born in
sixty four, but I've been in the she Maks for
at least of teen years. And it was so bizarre
that all of a sudden the markets that are going
to I could see they were already dropping, and then
all of a sudden he wants me to go to that,
and I'm going up because I see Tom right from
the statuses are look to say was just the sort
(25:48):
of a bit of pinny in the right pockets because
they've got menage funds and I've been in the sheer
mark and all that, and I'm uncomfortable, you know, Okay.
Speaker 3 (25:56):
So you could afford to say I want to be
more aggressive.
Speaker 2 (25:59):
But that's good advice though from his side, right, so
as much as we kind of like it might have
been on the conservative side. But at the same time,
I think problem in financial services, and I don't think
this is a problem by though. The good thing about
financial so our job is to protect clients. So our
job is to make sure we never put you at
more risk than you think you can handle. And then
the moment, the beauty about working with a financial advisor,
(26:19):
like what you've done, is the moment that you have
said you want to go more aggressive. Hopefully he sat
you down and worked and kind of did a session
around the implications of that decision with you to allow
you to make your own decision. But at least now
you've got the confidence to understand what the right answer
is and why you've made the decision you've made it.
Speaker 3 (26:39):
Yeah, good, thanks for us.
Speaker 5 (26:41):
Thanks, you're skeptical on that answer, but still there's a
regulatory regime which basically means we have to do that.
Speaker 3 (26:51):
Got on your ass, Thank you, that's quite funny.
Speaker 2 (26:54):
It's a great answer.
Speaker 3 (26:55):
We've agreeing with something while shaying you don't really agree. Yes,
Look we're going to take a moment and come back
with We were with Rupert Carl and we're talking about just
investing in these times when oil's sort of going well,
you know, we're not sure where it's going at the moment,
but the straits of her moves are still closed. We've
got rhetoric from Trump saying he's going to bomb the
(27:17):
power stations in Iran if it's not open in a
couple of days. And there's got to be an end
in sight in the end, somehow, there's got to be
a vested interest in all parties to go. Actually, you
know what, everyone, and no matter where you are in
the world, we need energy, and yeah, we know where
we get it from, don't we Twenty percent of it
through the straits of all moves. It's twenty two minutes
(27:38):
to six. News Talks, said B. News Talk said B. Now, look,
we by the way, we do have some texts worried
about where we're passing our judgment. Someone says, come on, guys,
Iran is a bad player in the world market. Yes,
we know that, we know that, and we're not going
to get into We're not talking about who we hate
the most. It's a question of where it goes from here.
So we're looking at it from a market point of
(27:59):
view with Riper Carlin from curl Wealth. But actually before
we get onto because we are going to touch on
the inflation conversation and things that will be keeping Nikola
Willis awake at night possibly, but we just earlier on
I said, I wanted to just touch on the fact
that the markets aren't reacting dramatically to what's going on,
(28:22):
because it's almost like they are the emotionless fact sort
of cynical view of where it's going to end up.
And in the break it was almost something where I thought,
maybe I should feel better because the markets aren't panicking.
When the markets start to panic, that's when I should
be lying awake at not going, oh.
Speaker 2 (28:38):
Oh well, I think the markets are supposedly the unemotional
kind of piece, right, because it's not a single person.
That is hundreds of thousands of well informed, well read
people bringing all of the divergent views together.
Speaker 3 (28:54):
Right.
Speaker 2 (28:54):
It's not like a social media platform which is going
to take you down a rabbit hole. This is actually
there's only one rabbit hole to go down, and so
that's why it brings together all of those divergent views.
At the moment markets clearly are going the prevailing narrative
is nothing too much is going to happen here, and
he's going to chicken out, and whether that's true or not,
time will only tell. I would actually take your statement
(29:17):
slightly further because I think so that's a much easier
conversation to have because you know that that is the
everything coming together. My view on when markets do follow
the twenty thirty percent, we know that's going to happen,
because that's just life. The moment we think that that
can't happen, that's when we've got ourselves into real problems.
And so my view, it's horrible. It's very hard for
(29:41):
my clients. It's very hard for people when markets do full.
My job is to make sure I can educate people
ahead of that happening so that they don't stress and
they don't worry when it does.
Speaker 3 (29:51):
Reminds me of that comedy line. No one expects the
Spanish inquisition, but that's your job to expect it exactly.
That is my job.
Speaker 2 (29:59):
My job is to expect that, and my job is
to prepare people for exactly when that happens.
Speaker 3 (30:03):
I just think because we have been introducing the political
nature of discussion. I just read this text. Come on, guys,
Iran is a bad player in the world market. Trump
in America had to do something ran with a nuclear weapon.
We're just devastating. No evidence of that. By the way,
with the narrative of the stock market up or down
is a very short sighted view. If the people of
Iran are free from the repressive regime, the oil prices
will settled to under forty dollars a barrel. This from Richard. Richard,
(30:24):
you're dreaming if you think that suddenly the people of
Iran are going to be freed from the Muller's.
Speaker 2 (30:31):
My job is not to have a view on that.
My job is to take a view on what is
the current events, what is the narrative, and what does
that mean for markets? I don't look, I might have
a personal view, Yeah, but fundamentally that is a relevant
for me because we've actually had because I've been quite
vocal on that Trump and why markets have been quite
sanguine on this, and so we've actually got quite a
(30:51):
bit of hate mail on this at CODA. What with
that same narrative saying why hate mail? What we got
a whole lot of emails basically talking about the fact
that hold on a set they needed to go, they
needed to do that. I need to be much stronger
against and positive towards Trump.
Speaker 3 (31:07):
Well, it's not that's that's not your job. My job
is to You're not a political commentator. You're just saying,
show me the money. One of that great line in
the film, wasn't it hi, guys and enjoying the show.
If there's just a couple of quick text questions for you.
If I had one hundred K sitting around, would it
pay to put it into my offset? Thereby getting around
(31:28):
six percent? I can't see it managed fun getting that
straight off the bat when they mean offset the mortgage
in other words, yeah.
Speaker 2 (31:35):
Because yeah, so lower mortgage means you're guaranteed to return.
Speaker 3 (31:38):
And that's tax. So let's tax a tax.
Speaker 2 (31:41):
So six percent pre tax. Look, it depends entirely on
what your objectives are, how long you want to stay invested.
An aggressive style fund is delivered about twelve percent over
the last five years. Yeah, we'll let continue.
Speaker 3 (31:53):
Who knows?
Speaker 2 (31:55):
I think you again?
Speaker 3 (31:56):
Burn the hand and two in the bush exactly right.
Speaker 2 (31:58):
And it depends entirely on what your objective is if
you're a long term investor.
Speaker 3 (32:02):
Maybe maybe not? Okay, Tim, please your guess that's Rupert.
What the difference is between a financial advisor and a
wealth advisor? I know they are distinctly different, but I
unsure the actual mechanics for each many thanks Lynn. Is
there a difference in definition technically?
Speaker 2 (32:16):
No, I would argue a wealth advisor as a financial
advisor who specializes an investment products. So you can have
a financial advisor that will be a mortgage advisor, an
insurance advisor, and a wealth advisor or an investment advisor.
There are generally three different types.
Speaker 3 (32:33):
Of So wealth advisor sounds more optimistic. You know, financial
could be good or bad news. Wealth just sounds like wealth.
Speaker 2 (32:40):
I want to help you build a better future.
Speaker 3 (32:43):
Yeah, okay, Look, time is flying, inflation, oil, inflation effects
where to.
Speaker 2 (32:51):
This is the bait that I think markets aren't Ah,
so sorry, markets are actually interest rate markets are saying
inflation is here and inflation is going to be higher.
And so you've seen the interest rates move up quite.
Speaker 3 (33:05):
Do we see that just in what the bank's offer
from mortgage.
Speaker 2 (33:07):
No, we see that in what we call the wholesale
rate so which is where the bank's going to get
their funding from.
Speaker 3 (33:12):
So we call them swap rate.
Speaker 2 (33:14):
So one, two, three year rates kind of have risen significantly.
They rise because they expect inflation to come up and
that are then that's kind of they expect the ocr
to need to rise to kind of deal with that inflation.
The problem with what we're seeing right now is even
though it's only been three or four years, three or
four weeks sorry, and even though it might reverse pretty quickly,
(33:36):
people are already making pricing decisions off the back of it.
We talked about in New Zealand. In New Zealand's already
put up at the minimum flight priced by twenty dollars.
That's not going anywhere down, that's not falling anywhere. Food
that's about to start rising. You think about, so oil
makes up about five to ten percent of all in
pot costs and if you go, we've had a sixty
(33:57):
percent increase in that and all cost of oil over
the space of the last.
Speaker 3 (34:01):
Four weeks, and that's three to seven percent rise and
food is it.
Speaker 2 (34:04):
No so across all everything. So just for making the
maths pretty easy, Okay, let's say it's ten percent, so
that means that's an extra zero point six to zero
point seven percent of inflation right there, right, okay, and
that's we're already starting to see that come through. So
we are going to see higher inflation, and that's going
to mean that will mean an inflation unfortunately, acts like
(34:25):
a little bit of a tax. So people rather than
spending money on holidays away, rather than spending money going
out to Pontsomi road and eating kind of over priced
beers and pizzas, they're just going to need to spend
that money on food, on petrol, all of those core things.
And so that's why I think with higher inflation, we
are likely to see a pullback in our economic growth,
(34:48):
which is going to get hard, and it's going to
be hard for these own businesses.
Speaker 3 (34:51):
Actually, the we were talking affair about this and I
think I can't mean if I mentioned it yesterday on
the show, but I was surprised when we were looking
at you know, I was looking at whether we take
our break and go somewhere, you know, go down to
the South Island in winter, and I just assumed because
of all the headlines around in New Zealand and look,
the fares have gone up, but the probably the thing
(35:13):
is no one's booking at that time. I got cheap
fares cheaper than I would normally get because while the
while fears might have gone up ten or twenty dollars,
instead of me only being able to book the cheap
the expensive fare, the cheap fares are the cheapest fears
are still available as opposed to maybe this time last
(35:33):
year they wouldn't have been. So I was surprised.
Speaker 2 (35:36):
It's demand pulling back because people are now pitch fight
about petrol.
Speaker 3 (35:40):
They're just scared.
Speaker 2 (35:41):
And where people are scared and they've also got money
going on their core things, they just stop spending money.
Speaker 3 (35:46):
Do you think I mean, I know the budgeting is
not your bag so much, but do you think that
there are certain headlines that freak people out more than
they need to? And I don't want to be I
don't want to be fickle about the pressure that households
are under because I'm noticing on our budget and our
house sold, we're going backwards compared to what we normally
a you know, life's more expensive. But then I think, okay, well,
(36:06):
you know PETREL's gone up, it's going to be an
extra twenty bucks every week or something. I don't know
what it is going to be to film attank, but
it has gone up. I don't know. I'm just trying
to tell myself that, Okay, well I might not get
bacon and eggs twice a week.
Speaker 2 (36:22):
But we're also in a world where so petrel one
I think I find really fascinating right now, So petrol,
we're kind of moved back into a new podium of
truth talking about petrol.
Speaker 3 (36:31):
Stores and what.
Speaker 2 (36:35):
But the truth is, though that PETREL's no more expensive
than it was in twenty twenty two. Also, oil is
no more.
Speaker 3 (36:41):
Thanking for that one. That's what I remember, because every
time I used to fill up at two fifty, I'm going, well,
it's better than three to twenty, which I remember back
in twenty twenty.
Speaker 2 (36:49):
Yeah, not that long ago. And so we had it
in we've had it in the kind of that which
was post Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It's one hundred dollars
oil is not that unusual, and so we've had that
a lot. And so I get the risk, isn't he it?
But I think there's a lot of I don't know
(37:10):
if scaremongering is probably too strong a word, but there's
a lot of unfounded fear right now in my personal opinion.
Speaker 3 (37:18):
Yeah, Actually that gets back to the way we consume
news is that there's a lot of hyperbole. And I said,
Hosking said the same thing. Actually he said there was
one pole that was bad for Luxen and he was
being chased through the airport on one pole and another
pole sells a different story in this and it's just crickets.
And I worry that we get that treatment on any
(37:41):
sort of bad news, that it's like, you know, oh,
the ship is sinking when you know, maybe the winds
dropped a little bit.
Speaker 2 (37:48):
But it comes back to click through rates, clicktory rates
on websites, they are always going to be significantly high
for negativity, which is what drives a.
Speaker 5 (37:55):
Lot of this.
Speaker 3 (37:56):
I'm going to come back in just a moment where
with Rupert Carline, he's a Courra wealth founder. Fascinating discussion
all this stuff. Actually, I think I'm feeling a little
less stressed about it all because nothing like information is
there as long as it's not all bad. It's eight
and a half minutes to Sick News Talk z B.
We've got Rupert Carline with me just to wrap up
Smart Money. And by the way, if you've missed any
(38:17):
of the hours, the podcast will be up pretty quickly
after six o'clock. See can go and get it online
news talks b or cut it in Z but Rupert
actually just a trivial question. Somebody said, what's your honest
opinion on investment platforms like the Hatch and the chas
eas versus financial advisors? Well, one costs a bit more.
I think probably.
Speaker 2 (38:36):
Look, there's a price. It depends on your knowledge and
it depends on your capability. So I'm a big believer
in Cheeseys and Hatch and those platforms. I think they've
done a great job at bringing the international markets, in
particular to every day cauees's.
Speaker 3 (38:50):
But you've got to know what you do.
Speaker 2 (38:52):
So if anyone is using those platforms, my very strong
advice is to not personal advice, but just find yourself
a couple of global ETFs or maybe your ATF an
exchange trade fund, and just do that. You don't need
to do a whole lot. Don't overthink it. If you
don't understand it, don't do it. I've had a lot
(39:14):
of friends and people that will come to me and
say I've had a shares's portfolio for the last four
or five years. I don't understand it. My kiwisaver has
gone up ten twelve percent every year, or on average
that's up ten twelve percent per year, but my shares's
account's largely flat. Wise that I had a quick look
at their portfolio and I go, well, because they've invested
on a whole lot of random stuff, right, So keep
(39:37):
it simple. My advice to anyone that's not confident in
what they're doing, just try and copy what your QI
saving manager is doing. And that's the safest stance.
Speaker 3 (39:44):
And on the other note as well, I guess I
take some solace what we were saying that the markets
aren't freaking out about oil at the moment. So maybe
that's something where we can take a bit of a
deep breath.
Speaker 2 (39:53):
I think, Yeah, markets aren't freaking out, and let's look
at track record. He has checked out every single time.
Why will this time be different?
Speaker 3 (40:01):
Well, indeed, anyway, Hey, great to you on mate, really
fascinating discussion. Let's Rippert carlyon from Coural Wealth. Thanks my producer,
Tyre Award. We'll be back at the same tom next
weekend Sunday at six is Next.
Speaker 1 (40:21):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to News
Talk ZB weekends from three pm, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Kingdom of Fraud
It’s the unlikeliest of criminal partnerships: a devout polygamist from an insular Utah sect joining forces with a shadowy Armenian tycoon from LA. The result - a billion dollar fraud conspiracy. In Kingdom of Fraud, investigative reporter Michele McPhee traces the origins of the extraordinary alliance between Jacob Kingston and Levon Termendzhyan. Together, the two men trigger the largest tax investigation in American history and weave around themselves a web of dirty cops, influential political relationships and transnational money laundering. All this is set against the backdrop of Jacob Kingston’s clan – The Order. A powerful and secretive polygamist organization in Salt Lake City. To whom Jacob is desperate to prove his worth. Kingdom of Fraud is produced by Novel for iHeart Podcasts. For more from Novel, visit https://novel.audio/. You can listen to new episodes of Kingdom of Fraud completely ad-free and 1 week early with an iHeart True Crime+ subscription, available exclusively on Apple Podcasts. Open your Apple Podcasts app, search for “iHeart True Crime+, and subscribe today!