March 6, 2026 • 40 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Cameron Bagrie, Jo Luxton, Michael Harvey, Alex Tait, and Shane Jones.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The best of the country with Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Choose the bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agribusiness experience.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Grow with Rabobank You.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
Cass Sa cour last second Quaking.
Speaker 4 (00:37):
We get and Good Morning New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay.
This is the best of the Country, brought to you
each and every Saturday morning here on News took zid
Bey by Rabobank. We're growing a better New Zealand together.
Coming to you this morning from the final day of
the Golden Shares and World Sharing and Wool Handling Champs
in Masterton. Nothing dreams sharing more than ac DC, A
(01:03):
real favorite in the sheds around the country, length and breadth.
Our country is in a relatively good space at the moment.
Other countries in the world aren't, obviously, with what's happening
in the Middle East. Earlier in the week I caught
up with Cameron Bagri and the picture changed throughout the week.
So he's an independent economist. We had a look at
the state of the world economy as war effectively breaks
(01:24):
out has broken out in the Middle East, and we
talked trade implications and inflation, oil and fertilizer prices and
possible time frames for this conflict. Obviously everyone's just guessing.
Joe Luxton got out of a deathbed earlier in the
week to chat to US Labour's AG spokesperson. We talked
to Michael Harvey from Rabobank Great dairy trade auction midweek
(01:46):
five point seven percent skim milk powder nine percent dairy
is on a flyer at the moment, no doubt about that.
We're going to wrap it with Alex Tate, more about
him later and Shane Jones, the self titled Prince of
the province is the mighty Martua. Has he ever been
on the end of a hand piece? I know? We
grew up on a Northland farm. All that's on the
best of the country and it's brought to you by Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
The best of the country with Rabobank. Choose the bank
with a huge network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 1 (02:21):
Rabobank.
Speaker 4 (02:23):
Cameron Bakery kicks off the show today. Cameron, as I said,
rapidly changing landscape. War has broken out effectively in the
Middle East. What does it mean for us as a
trading nation? I guess the simple answer is not really
that great.
Speaker 5 (02:37):
Well, it's not great for us it's not great for
the world. You go back to the nineteen seventies a
year to look at what happened when we saw real
oil shop. Both the first and the second you punt
over economy effectively into a recession. Now the hope is
that we're not steering down the barrel of that sort
of affair. If you look at the first oil shop,
(02:57):
you know, oil price is trebled in price, the second
all shop, they're up seventy percent in price. You what
we've seen the market reaction today, All prices are up
sort of five to ten percent. There are up about
fifteen percent from their lows in January, so that's a
little bit more of a sort of movement. But it
seems to be the hope across market at the moment
(03:19):
is going to come to a pretty swift end and
things will settle because the market reaction to date has
been reasonably subdued.
Speaker 4 (03:27):
Have the markets fact that in a Trump, a reasonably
quick Trump victory here.
Speaker 5 (03:32):
Well that's what looks like where the market is gone
for this, But of course there's going to be done
and mustered pretty quickly. Well that's the maybe dollar question,
and no one sort of knows here if you go back, Yeah,
a lot of these sort of conflicts we've seen sort
of historically. If you go back an ever, look at Afghanistan,
if you have a look at what happened in Vietnam,
the less you thought was that's going to be done
(03:53):
and dusted pretty quickly. Well they've been done and dusted
very pretty quickly. The markets have taken a glass up
for view of the moment that it's going to come
to a pretty swift end. We hope that it is
going to be the case, but if you look at
historical experience, historical experience tells us that some of these
conflicts don't come to a very quick end very quickly.
Speaker 4 (04:13):
Well, as you mentioned, Vietnam and Afghanistan are two excellent examples.
Worst case scenario, the Strait of hor moves gets completely
blocked up, nothing gets in or out. That is going
to spell well danger not only for world crude oil supplies,
but obviously for US. We send a lot of stuff
up there these days.
Speaker 5 (04:33):
Well tend to a lot of stuff that we receive,
all of stuff. If you look at New Zealand's patrol
them and patrol them related products, Yeah, what we bring in,
it's about ten billion books and the petrol is about
three billion dollars of that. But the big thing we
bring in is diesel. You know, we can live without
(04:53):
without our cars for a few days. But if you
stop the transport industry and its traps in regard to
getting things around the country, you've got made your economic problems.
And of course New Zealand's got a pretty strong dependency
in regard to inputed fuel because you got rid of
Master and point. So we're no longer bringing in crude
and then making our own product. We're bringing in the finished product.
Where does that finished product come from? It comes from Career,
(05:14):
comes from Singapore. Where does it come from? It comes
from the Middle East, the Straits of Hamoth. This is
another side to this, Jamie, which don't think people are
up to play on, is that what's going on in
the Middle East could have dramatic impact on the world's
food production. In regard to what's going on because around
half of world production is reliant on no gygen fertilizer.
(05:37):
Whether we get an awful lot of fertilizer out of
because it's gas related, it comes out of the Middle East.
Because it's not just the impact on oil markets here
that people need to be awake to in regard to
what's going on. It's a potential impact on the world's
food bowl and production costs as fertilizer carries an impact
as well because it's a function of gas.
Speaker 4 (05:56):
You're the economist, I'm a failed economist, Cameron, Inflation's number
one enemy? Can I say that of the economy?
Speaker 5 (06:05):
Now we just have the EPSOS Secies monitor, which is
the mood of the nation survey car out in the
past forty eight hours. I know the government that a
rabbits on about the economy being the biggest issue out there. Well,
for the ordinary person in the street, it's not the
economy that it's the biggest evil at the monment. It's
the cost of living is putting food on the table.
And I guess that's where if you step back and
(06:26):
think about the bigger picture in regard to what's going
on here globally, your worst case scenario or some of
those bad case scenarios in regard if you see an
oil shop, if you see a food production sort of flop,
you just add more cost inflation into the system. And
we already know that central banks at the moment have
got inflation targets by in large to two percent. They've
(06:47):
got inflation around three percent. Three percent is not bad,
but it's not two percent. And the last thing any
central bank around the globe wants to see at the
moment there's some sort of cost shock, which is what
oil price and flow or food price inflation could potentially
add into the system. If this as a persistent outcome
as opposed to a temporary outcomet, would you be.
Speaker 4 (07:09):
Game enough to guess how long this fight, this war
could last. I mean, you're an economists. You used to
making predictions and getting them wrong, So have a crack Cameron.
Speaker 5 (07:21):
Oh, yes, if I But if I sit back and yeah,
if I look at history, history tells us that these
sort of things take a little bit of time to settle.
I saw yesterday Donald Trump was saying this then will
be over in four weeks. Well now he's saying it
might not be over in four weeks. History tells us
that do not underestimate the underdog and go out to
(07:43):
the potential to dig in and make us a long
and more stretched out affair. Everyone to suspect than what theyre.
Speaker 4 (07:47):
Goes Cameron Bagri. Independent economists thanks as always for your
wisdom on the country. Really appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (07:53):
Thanks for your time, Jenny, the best of the country
with robo Bank, the bank with local agribanking experts, passionate
about the future of rural communities, Rubber Bank.
Speaker 4 (08:05):
She has got out of a deathbed today to talk
to us. She is channeling her very best Bonnie Tyler
with the husky voice. Labour's Egg spokesperson Joe Luxton And Joe,
is this a hangover from the sleepover with Federated Farmers
late last week?
Speaker 6 (08:22):
Good afternoon, Jamie. No, absolutely not. I think it's just
down to a lot of travel lately and all kinds
of bugs that are going around.
Speaker 4 (08:31):
We'll let you offer that, and I do appreciate you
making the effort to chat to us today. Now, was
this gathering, what do you actually call it? I call
it the sleep over, the pajama party, the love and
but let's show it some more respect. What's its official title?
Speaker 6 (08:46):
We've just been calling it our farmers Forum. We did
start off with a different name, but that we'd beens,
but then we were sort of let know that that
wasn't we weren't able to be using that name.
Speaker 4 (09:00):
Scaler up not like it.
Speaker 6 (09:02):
That's what I've heard.
Speaker 4 (09:04):
Was this all whoey and no dewey, where's the policy?
Speaker 6 (09:09):
I hear your frustration there, Jamie. That it was a
really a really good couple of days. I think it's
gone from strength to strengths from the very first one
to this one. We had some really really open friend
and frank conversation he talked about, we had a lot
(09:30):
of bit of a tabletops of I guess conversation to
start with. Yea, we fleshed out ideas that some of
some other MP's because there was a broad group of
Carcus members there from that held many many portfolios, which
was really good, and a lot of conversation around concerns
(09:51):
that farmers were bringing up with us, things that we've
been thinking about and as ideas perhaps going forward, and
that was really good opportunity to I guess hear the good,
the bad and the ugly about everything. It was just
really really beneficial for all of us.
Speaker 4 (10:07):
Wayne Langford on yesterday's Chean, I do don't know whether
you heard this, spoke well, not glowingly, but he spoke
positively about Chippy and the fact that he was able
to get up without notes and speak to a farming
audience with some credibility and acknowledge for forty five minutes.
He said, that was a far cry from where it
was three years ago when you started this, when they
(10:28):
had to reconvene the agenda at lunchtime because they realized
how little labor knew about agriculture. I mean, anyone who
observed the labor government of twenty twenty to twenty three,
Joe would have realized that. But to be fair to you,
and I know you've led the charge on being far
more friendly and to Chippy, at least you're listening.
Speaker 6 (10:49):
Now, absolutely, and that's been a real focus for me,
is just listening, and I think many people could benefit
from just simply less instead of talking it or over
each Chris has shown a real genuine interest in billindness
to learn and understand about the sector, have all of us,
(11:12):
and it's been really really beneficial. I keep saying that
we'd beneficial, but it's really really important, really important.
Speaker 4 (11:20):
And you've kind of put a muzzle over Damien, which
has helped the relationship as well.
Speaker 6 (11:25):
I have done nothing with Damien. Damien is our trades
berks person and does a santeste to it Chip.
Speaker 4 (11:32):
He's doing nothing at the moment, and this is almost
a backhanded compliment. He's come out with his capital gains
tax last year, floated that it went quite well. We've
seen little by nothing in the policy department from him.
Ditto for you and AGG. And I know I keep
asking you for agg policy and we've you've said you've
got to wait. But whatever it is he's doing, it's
(11:53):
kind of working because he's doing well in the polls.
He's more favorably rated than the current Prime minister. That's
all fine and dandy, Joe Luxon, but the big problem
you've got is your coalition partners. They're going to make
you unelectable, regardless of how popular Chippy might become.
Speaker 6 (12:12):
We're focused on Labor and getting as many votes to
labor is next election. And I hear your frustration, Jamie.
I hear other people wanting to know where Labour's policy is.
And you will have heard your listeners will have heard
Chris publicly say that you know, whatever we decide and
(12:34):
bring out as policy, we must and have to eviently
be able to deliver on. We can't make promises, and
does not want to make promises that we cannot deliver.
So it's really that we are responsible and we want
to wait till the budget announcement so we understand what
money is there and then we will look at the
(12:55):
policies in what will be deliverable and you will hear
from us after that.
Speaker 4 (13:01):
Okay, Well, you're cracking up on me, both personally and
via the phone line, Joe Luxton, So I'll let you go. Look,
I do appreciate you getting out of your sick bed,
and I'll await. I'll await eagerly some ag policy. I
may be an old man when it arrives, Joe, but
I'll be waiting.
Speaker 6 (13:19):
Oh God, all right, thanks ver much, Jamie.
Speaker 1 (13:22):
By bye, the best of the country with Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (13:25):
Choose the bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agribusiness experience.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
Grow with Rubbobank.
Speaker 4 (13:31):
I often say in jest that no one at Rabobank
has a short title. Well, this man is no exception.
His name is Michael Harvey, based out of the Western Ireland, Australia.
He's a senior dairy and consumer foods analyst. Michael, Good, Afternoon,
New Zealand time. The last time we chatted, you were
just to play an old senior dairy analyst.
Speaker 7 (13:53):
Jamie thinks had me. It's great to be back.
Speaker 8 (13:54):
Yeah, I think you could have added a senior vice
president in there somewhere, I think with my title. But
we'll go with dairy consumer food analysts.
Speaker 4 (14:00):
All right, Well, we might talk about presidents a wee
bit later. I've got Matt Bolger coming up from Fonterra,
he's the MD of co Op Affairs to talk about
this global deary trade auction overnight. So I'll keep the
powder are wee bit dry there? But gee, five point
seven percent the index skim milk powder nine point one
percent is an outstanding result when you look at all
(14:23):
the turmoil around the world at the moment.
Speaker 8 (14:26):
That's another strong Browns which is great news for the
exports sector in New Zealand, and then just for the
broader price signal.
Speaker 7 (14:33):
It's sends around the world around the value of milk.
Speaker 8 (14:35):
And our clear observation is, you know, it's clearly being
led by the protein complex. You've got real tightness in
the supply of skim milk powder and that's what's really
driving the recovery. We're seeing commodity prices and I think
the GDT skim offerings are on the GDT you're quite
low at the moment, so it's it's part of that
protein story is getting a bit of a boost and
that's providing upside for the broader dairy commodity complex. But
(14:58):
I think in the context of what's going on globally,
because there is a lot of milk supply still out
there in the world, but I think what it's showing
you is that there's some real bio sentiment is quite
high in terms of pricing in risk premium because of
the global noise, and that's what you see coming through
in the results. You know, a lot of buyers in
the Middle East, Southeast Asia, those sorts of regions pulling
forward some of their cover for New Zealand origin product
(15:19):
which are declining seasonally and lower on the GEDT auction.
So it's that risk premium being priced in for New
Zealand product at the moment in the short term, which
is a good result.
Speaker 4 (15:28):
So effectively Australation and our clue Australia and here Australasian
dairy farmers are benefiting and the short term from this
war in the Middle East.
Speaker 8 (15:38):
In the short term in terms of the dairy commodity complex.
Absolutely here in Australia has been a little bit different.
We haven't actually seen the downside in farm gate pricing
that you have previously because we've got a different pricing
structure here. But certainly, you know, high commodity prices in
US dollar terms has already provided some upside back into
the milk price in New Zealand, and we still think
there might be a little bit more upside in the
(15:58):
current season. And it's certainly you know, provides a bit
of momentum around what the payout forecast might look like
for the new season. So yeah, it's beneficial from that perspective,
but you can't ignore the risk on the other side, Jamie,
that you know, in amongst all this, there is some
margin outlook risk because of what might happen in the
Middle East if things continue to escalate and it's in
(16:19):
a drawn out conflict, and it really sits around energy
and the supply and supply risks that come from things
like fertilizer. So that's the angle we're looking at here.
I mean, energy prices are already up, there's more upside
risk if it's a conflict is prolonged and the higher
they stay for longer, the more problematic that becomes for
the global economy and everything else.
Speaker 7 (16:39):
So we're watching that end.
Speaker 8 (16:41):
But of course we know that there's a lot of
fertilizer that comes out of the Middle East region into
our markets in this part of the world. So it's
price risk, but it's also supply risk if you can't
actually get the product into market. So there's a bit
of a watch on that perspective, and that's the key
thing we'd be thinking about.
Speaker 4 (16:56):
And obviously there's going to be a bit of a
watch on infistrates. More importantly, inflation the number one enemy
of the economy, that's.
Speaker 8 (17:04):
Right, and that's the risk for most economies around the
world now is if you do get higher oil prices
for longer, that that is problematic for global economies and
global growth, and then that does change potentially the outlook
around central banks and their policy and monetary policy and
what it might do for interest rates, but also then
how that feeds into the currencies and things like that,
(17:26):
and the other thing to think about in all this,
particularly with a dairy hat on, is clearly high oil
prices generally drag the grain and oil seed complex higher
so that can mean clearly a spike in feed costs,
which have been quite affordable for a lot of dairy
farmers around the world at the moment. If you get
upside risk in terms of feed prices, that does change
the margin outlook for producers outside of New Zealand, and
(17:46):
it might actually change the outlook around milk production growth
as well. So there's a few layers to it all,
but clearly, yeah, absolutely, the whole discussion around energy prices
being up, what that means for global economies and how
central banks will respond to that will be a clear
clear watching them coming months.
Speaker 4 (18:03):
Will all this extra milk being produced around the world
and I'll only be encouraged by these higher prices. Will
it all find a home eventually?
Speaker 8 (18:11):
Well, there's always that short term trade disruption that you
get because the Middle East is an important market, particularly
for milk powder, and if you looked at the recent
trends over the last couple of years, it's been an
increasingly growing outlet for New Zealand origin milk powder in
the absence of a fairly flat China import program, so
that that's important there. So you're watching to see there's
any major disruption to that in the short to medium term,
(18:34):
you put a lot of product into that region as well.
So that's the thing we're thinking about, what might happen
with all that milk powder that might be disruptured going
into that region. But fundamentally, and this comes back to
our outlook, we're about to put out a global outlook,
which is a difficult time to do when.
Speaker 7 (18:49):
You've got so many moving parts.
Speaker 8 (18:50):
But we still think that right now there is a
lot of milk still out there in export regions around
the world, But we're baked into our forecast slow down
in milk product growth anyway, and that will start to
kick in from the second half of this year. So yeah,
there might be some short term pressure that comes back
on the global market if there is disruption to trade,
but ultimately, over the next felve months, we see a
(19:10):
much better balanced global market anyway, because the supply growth
that we've had will normalize and the demand settings that
we've seen coming through in terms of recovery, we're getting better.
But you just can't ignore that there's a lot of
uncertain at the moment around some of that.
Speaker 4 (19:25):
How long you've been a vice president for that's a
very americanized title.
Speaker 8 (19:28):
Michael Harthy, No, not a vice president, just to senior
analysis thro Rabobank.
Speaker 4 (19:34):
Just a plain old senior dairy and consumer foods analysts.
Great to have your analytical mind on the country today.
Thanks for the exign.
Speaker 1 (19:43):
Thanks for having me the Best of the Country with Ravobank.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
Choose the bank with a huge network of progressive farming
clients Ravo Bank.
Speaker 4 (20:01):
Welcome back to the Best of the Country. Good morning.
My name's Jamie McKay. The show's brought to you on
a Saturday morning by Rabobank. We're growing a better New
Zealand together playing ac DC because it is synonymous with sharing.
The show's coming to you from Marsterton where we are
here well namely me for the Golden Shares tonight in
the world Sharing and wool Handling Champs. It's going to
(20:23):
be a beauty. Good luck to the New Zealand teams
competing in that. Up next on the Best of the Country.
Alex Tait, a former Black Cap, played a few games
odii's for New Zealand in the nineteen nineties. Had a
crack at had a crack at a career, should I say,
as a professional golfer. These days he's a professional caddie
(20:43):
at tara Ety. Very interesting man, great colorful background, very
keen hunter as well. The raws on at the moment
there's a lot of people going out hunting fair all
dare and good on you. They're a real pest. But
the injury rate, the numbers out of acc are terrible.
So we're going to talk a wee bit that and
we're going to wrap it with Shane Jones. The self
titled Prince of the Province is the Mighty Martua, covering
(21:06):
everything from the Middle East. Y Winston's such a great statesman.
Is ongoing debate over gold mining in Central Otago and
does he have a background on the end of a handpiece.
It is, of course golden shares and World Wool Handling
Day Here in the waira rapper just before I forget.
Courtesy of Rabobank, it's the tenth edition of Rabobank Good
Deeds Competition and to celebrate they're giving away one hundred
(21:29):
thousand dollars ten prizes of ten thousand dollars each to
upgrade ten rural community hubs across New Zealand. Ten grand
will make a real difference. One lucky one I will
get a day's free labor from the teams at Rabobank
in the country. If you want to enter, just go
to the Rabobank website and search for good Deeds or
simply text good to our text number five doub nine
(21:52):
and we'll send you the link to enter. Up next,
Alex Tate caught up with them on Thursday show at
Tara ety.
Speaker 2 (22:03):
The best of the Country with Rubber Bank, the bank
with local agri banking experts passionate about the future of
rural communities Rubber Bank.
Speaker 4 (22:12):
For all you keen hunters out there, the raw is
about to get underway now. Acc data shows severe hunting
injuries doubled compared to the average month, with forty percent
affecting knee and shoulders. Now we're going to discuss this
with a very keen hunter, a very keen golfer, and
a very good cricket player, Alex Tait, former Black Cap
(22:35):
of course, professional golfer, was a professional golfer these days,
almost a professional caddy and a keen hunter. Alex, I
just want to start with the story of the day,
and you're probably too busy to have a look at it.
But those black caps for no Allen one hundred off
thirty three balls. Did that happen in your day when
you were playing for ND and the black Caps.
Speaker 7 (22:56):
It's a different game now, Jamie.
Speaker 9 (22:58):
I'm quite glad I'm not playing it these days.
Speaker 7 (23:00):
It really is.
Speaker 9 (23:01):
I mean, it isn't just a twenty twenty version either.
It's whether you're talking about Test matchal fifty over. Cricket
is just a completely different, completely different game to what
we played back in the nineties. Two hundred and forty
was a pretty decent score back in nineteen ninety six.
So pretty glad I'm not playing it these days.
Speaker 4 (23:20):
Yeah, you're real all around that. You're a very good golfer,
a very good cricket player, you were a very good
squash play Any good on the end of a rifle?
Can you shoot straight?
Speaker 7 (23:31):
I'm not too bad.
Speaker 9 (23:33):
I guess you'd have to ask a few of my
hunting buddies whether I'm any good or not. But yeah,
I've been a keen hunter for probably twenty five twenty
six years now. It was always a neat little getaway
for me when I had a week or two off
from sports. So still enjoy it, still enjoy it, Still
get out of the want I can now in.
Speaker 4 (23:52):
The commercial break when we were teeing up this interview,
I didn't realize that, I said to you, because you're
at Northlander through and through, and I said, has the
raw starded yet in Northland? Then you told me there's
no deer north of Auckland. I didn't realize that.
Speaker 9 (24:05):
No, it depends. Woodhall Forest is probably the most northern
deer heerd in New Zealand, so places like Helensville and
cal cop places like that. You'll get a few private
farms that have had a few strays come out of
Woodhall Forests. So, and if you're talking in that's fellow deer.
If you're talking about red there, I would guess Portyhadow
(24:31):
or the Kaimies something like that is probably as far
north as red deers ventured in New Zealand at the stage. So,
as far as I know, doc are not particularly keen
on any any deer and Northland at this stage. But yeah,
that's about as far north as they come.
Speaker 4 (24:48):
The stats aren't good and as I said at the beginning,
severe injuries double compared to your average month. This is
when the raws are on. These injuries result in an
average of seventy six days away from and work.
Speaker 9 (25:00):
I must have I've touched wood. I've been pretty lucky
as far as that's concerned. Probably since i've been working
here Tarah Eddie, I've I've been going hunting with three
or four three or four friends or sort of Southwest
North Island. So, but the previous to that, I was,
you know, I didn't have the luxury of having any
(25:23):
hunting hunting companions, so I spent a lot of time.
Speaker 7 (25:27):
In the Chimis.
Speaker 9 (25:27):
I lived in Meta Meta for five years. Spent a
lot of time in the Cimise, which is pretty thick stuff.
So I guess I had to be a little more
more careful than a lot of guys that have got
hunting buddies. But as I say, the last seven or
eight years, I've been lucky enough to have three or
four guys that I go in with all the time.
Speaker 4 (25:45):
Now, So tell me about Alex Tate, the golfer, the cricketer,
the professional caddy. What you're up to? Are you living
the dream at Tara Eatie caddying for the rich and famous.
Speaker 9 (25:57):
It's I do enjoy I do enjoy it, especially like
I'm nearing the mid fifties now, so I basically walk
ten to twelve kilometers every day, which keeps me reasonably fit.
And because we're not actually employed by TARI, we're outside contractors.
Speaker 7 (26:15):
So if I want.
Speaker 9 (26:17):
To go fishing tomorrow, I just put across in the
notebook and I go fishing. If I don't work, I
ain't get paid. So it's but basically up to me
what days I work, how much I work, when I
go fishing, when I go hunting, So I'm not sort
of strapped into a nine to five job as it is.
Speaker 4 (26:37):
So yeah, last night last weekend, you were at Millbrook.
You were caddying for I think Paul Blackwell, one of
the leading business people in this country. He's been a
sponsor of Dan Elliert. You were in that same group.
Must have been a thrill. How good does that young
man flush the ball?
Speaker 9 (26:54):
He's one of the best of scene. And I said
that to Paul the first time we played with him
back in twenty twenty. Just especially his eyes. For someone
that hits the ball so far, he's he's accurate, the
distance distance controls just incredible. But literally every time he
(27:14):
hits a golf for you can just tell that it's
just it's it's just been hammered. It really is good
fun to watch him. And like I said to you,
we had Stevie Williams in our group again and he
made a prediction after about nine holes. We're sort of
talking about his ball striking and Stevie just looked at
(27:36):
me and said, mate, there's something different about him this year.
He just looks more composed. He looks a little bit
more mature now he's had a bit of time in Europe.
He just said he shoots twenty five this week and
wins it. And he was three shots out. He shot
twenty two under and won it and that was after
nine holes. So he gives you an idea of.
Speaker 7 (27:58):
Of how good he is.
Speaker 9 (27:59):
If someone like Stevie Williams can make a comment like that.
Speaker 4 (28:03):
Yeah, and Ash Party was in your group as well.
You are mixing with the rich and famous. Final question
for you, Alex Tate, because I know you've got to
go away and do some caddying at in New Zealand's
most prestigious golf course, Tara eighty. Who's the most famous
person you've cadded for?
Speaker 9 (28:19):
He carried too many famous ones, a lot of warblacks,
a lot of cricketers.
Speaker 7 (28:27):
I have had.
Speaker 9 (28:28):
I didn't care they for him, but I have been
in the same group as Alice Cooper. He was here
a few years ago, and he's a good golfer. Here's
a good golfer. He actually played this is going back
I'm guessing four or five years now. He actually played
it on his seventy second birthday. I think it was
February the fourth, from memory, and it was his seventy
(28:48):
second birthday and he was saying the previous year he
had played one hundred and ninety one concerts in a
calendar year at the age of seventy one. So pretty such.
Speaker 7 (29:01):
Sort of guy.
Speaker 9 (29:02):
But yeah, now he's a good golfer, an an interesting story,
so it's good to have him in the group.
Speaker 4 (29:06):
Hey, Alex Taito could chat all day. Former black cap,
former professional golfer these days, professional caddie at Tara Etie,
you're living the dream and if you're out there hunters,
be careful during the roar. Thanks for your time, Alex, Pleasure,
Thank you, Jamie.
Speaker 1 (29:20):
The best of the country with Rubbobank.
Speaker 2 (29:23):
Choose the bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agribusiness experience.
Speaker 1 (29:27):
Grow with Rubbobank.
Speaker 4 (29:29):
Here is the Prince of the Province's self titled Martua
Shane Jones. Shane, you're a very worldly man. How worried
should we be about the world at the moment? Put
this into some historic perspective for me? Please?
Speaker 10 (29:45):
Well, we're never there are missiles flying ships being sunk
apparently in the Indian Ocean. Even us distant Kiwis nestled
in the South Pacific are going to be affected and impacted.
But I want everyone remember we were already passed a
bunch of regulations last year requiring the fuel companies to
(30:05):
increase their holdings here in New Zealand. I'm told that
there is nine on fifty days. I'm worth of holdings here.
But although we derive our fuel and whatnot from South
Korea and Singapore, the challenges where's the raw material going
to come from? So no, no, it's definitely hawkkehy like our
focus from Treasury and our Finance Minister on the issue.
(30:28):
But I'm really happy that we passed the regulations in
anticipation that New Zealand would need to stare more fuel
in the event there was geopolitical.
Speaker 5 (30:38):
Excesses.
Speaker 4 (30:39):
How big a cock cup was it? Mothballing milestone point.
Speaker 10 (30:44):
Look, there are two major major snaffoos in the energy sector.
The first one was just Cinder canceling the oil and
gas industry, and the second one was Megan Woods canceling
and selling now closing down the refinery, an extraordinarily stupid
(31:04):
thing to have done in a vain attempt to burnish
New Zealand's credentials that we were single handedly going to
save the planet. We're much the poorer for it, and
not a single listener to your show should ever doubt
the Labor Party had every chance to maintain that asset
in ownership. They stood by and actually allowed the sale
(31:27):
of the asset, and we're much the poorer for it.
As we are learning right now.
Speaker 4 (31:32):
We currently have the PM misspeaking and winston sharpest attack
from South America on foreign policy. Have we got the
wrong guy running the country? Could Shane Jones the Kingmaker
become king? Does the Kingmaker want to be king? And
does that make you prince?
Speaker 10 (31:51):
Well, let's not get too aspirational about monarchy. There's a
certain prince in another part of the world who is
in a great deal of drama. Coming back to Winston,
I mean care we should be not only respectful but
reassured that we have such a wily navigator. We have
someone who is speaking in a vein that gives reassurance
(32:14):
to Kiwis that we're not going to be bullied by
the extreme hypocrisy of the Green Party or other self
appointed political experts. And at the same time we support
each other in our coalition arrangements. But Winston is exclusively
the Foreign Affairs minister. When he's back from Latin America
(32:35):
over the weekend, you'll hear a lot more from him.
Speaker 4 (32:38):
Could we have a scenario where the kingmaker has the
balance of power and gets a larger proportion of the vote,
maybe ten twelve, who knows fifteen percent and demands to
be prime minister.
Speaker 10 (32:51):
Well, Winston got over thirteen percent of the vote in
nineteen ninety six. It's not our style, it's not his
style to make demands of any nature, because Kiwi's can
turn on the head of a dime. Reallywi's absolutely Kiwis
know that the elections on November the scene.
Speaker 4 (33:10):
He said it's not in Winston's nature to make demands.
Did I misshair that? Did you misspeak?
Speaker 10 (33:16):
The reality is the demand comes from the public. The
public reflect through their voting power, how much authority or
influence each party is going to enjoy. So any loose talk,
that's somehow we're demanding to form a particular character formation
of the government. That's up to the public and my
(33:38):
job and Winston's job and the both of us. And
we're going to go around New Zealand erynook and cranny
asking for the public to back us, and I believe
they will.
Speaker 4 (33:47):
Well I'll take that as a yes. Winston wants to
be Prime minister back to the Middle East? Could this
easily stall or derail the economic recovery? Inflations the number
one threat to the economy.
Speaker 10 (34:00):
Well, number one on people's mind, Jamie. You know as
well as I do. Even the money floating around the
farming sector was up at dargeable recently. There's the cost
of living, but you know, you always do have other issues,
not the least of which is the environment. But then
there's a lot of businesses under pressure as well, Jamie,
U South Island is Why is your largest city, christ
(34:20):
Church threatening to pour all the sewage over my beloved
marine farming industry on the upskirts of chrish Church. Why
is the Bromley Why am I hearing it. The Bromley
poopon is about to be deluged over all sorts of
oyster growing and salmon growing and fish growing enterprises down there.
The hacker you South Island is up to well, I don't.
Speaker 4 (34:41):
Know a North Islander wants to pollute some of the
South Island water systems with this gold mining. This will
get a bite in central Otargi.
Speaker 10 (34:51):
The Matua is coming not to give a sermon from
the mount but to bring overdue economic opportunity to the
South Island. And I know I got criticized for being
unkind to Sir Sam Neil, and I was told by
a member of the public, don't boot a Labrador. But
the reality is if you get involved in these debates,
(35:13):
even if it's Sea and Taylor, I am not going
to pull my punches because I'm standing up for the
garden variety Kiwi whose kids are going all over to
Australia to dig up somewhere around cal Gooley. And we've
got these self appointed guardians who have only succeeded in
pulling up the ladder and denying other quis a chart.
Speaker 4 (35:30):
Have you found a venue in a time, a date
for your debate? With Sarah Taylor.
Speaker 10 (35:36):
Well number one, I have no idea why see and
bothered to take up my invite, but I'm very happy
that he has. And look, debating politically is a pugilistic
sport now. The last time I heard that he wanted
to have a debate but no audience, and he wanted
to get Paddy Gower involved. Of course I promoted you
until Sean Plunkett got jealous and said it should be him.
(35:58):
But I'll back you, mate, if I want an audience there.
If he can pick fifty, I can pick fifty, he
can pick seventy five, I'll pick twenty five and have
an old fair dinkin on yard, not scrap but debate.
But you know, I like going soft on the personality,
hard on the issue. But these tarrass people. They've tried
(36:19):
to demean my personality. They're leaving me alone now because
they know I've got new Zealanders on my site.
Speaker 4 (36:24):
A final question for your Golden Shares World Sharing Championships
are on at the moment you grew up on a
Northland beef farm that you had a few sheep running around.
Are you any good on the end of a hand piece?
Speaker 10 (36:34):
No, I'm sorry. We had a guy Simpson to Futta
in the Pike cares from in and around the navor
Steve McNally. He's very handy. I had a cousin Miguel Lloyd.
I think he shared single handedly millions of sheep himself
in his lifetime. He's a good ten or fifteen years
older than me. No, no, I was on a farm
where we were milking the odder. And that's not being
(36:55):
on the public purse.
Speaker 4 (36:57):
Shade, I reckon and the sharing shed. You'd be quite
good on the press tramping the wall.
Speaker 10 (37:04):
There's too many tough women in front of me to
do that job.
Speaker 4 (37:08):
Bro Oh, you've got the god given phyzeke for that job.
Shane Jones, Prince of the Province, is always good to
have your time on the country.
Speaker 1 (37:14):
Thank you very much, The Best of the Country with Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (37:19):
Choose the bank with a huge network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 4 (37:23):
Rabobank, the self titled Prince of the Province is the
mighty martuur Shane Jones, even if he says so himself,
wrapping the Best of the Country. Good morning, My name's
Jamie McKay. The show's brought to you by Rabobank. We're
growing a better New Zealand together. Remember to enter the
(37:43):
Rabobank Good Deeds Competition. We've got one hundred grand to
give away, ten prizes of ten thousand dollars. Texts good
to five double oh nine and we'll send you the
entry link right. Good luck to the New Zealand Sharing
and wall handling teams tonight in Masterton, Roland, Smith Tower, Henderson,
the machine sharing Joel henare a Marika Braddock in the
(38:05):
war handling and let's not forget our blade sharers. The
roof is going to be lifted from the Memorial Hall
here in Marsterden. We'll catch you back with the Golden
Shares and World Champion. Hopefully it's a Kiwi on Monday show.
Till then, take care. I'm going to leave you with
a bit of akadaka.
Speaker 11 (38:36):
Que saw.
Speaker 9 (39:52):
Something.
Speaker 11 (39:57):
Yes, yes, Joe
Speaker 1 (40:07):
Somewhere, Giant somewhere, give me some
The best of the country with Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Choose the bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agribusiness experience.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Grow with Rabobank You.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
Cass Sa cour last second Quaking.
Speaker 4 (00:37):
We get and Good Morning New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay.
This is the best of the Country, brought to you
each and every Saturday morning here on News took zid
Bey by Rabobank. We're growing a better New Zealand together.
Coming to you this morning from the final day of
the Golden Shares and World Sharing and Wool Handling Champs
in Masterton. Nothing dreams sharing more than ac DC, A
(01:03):
real favorite in the sheds around the country, length and breadth.
Our country is in a relatively good space at the moment.
Other countries in the world aren't, obviously, with what's happening
in the Middle East. Earlier in the week I caught
up with Cameron Bagri and the picture changed throughout the week.
So he's an independent economist. We had a look at
the state of the world economy as war effectively breaks
(01:24):
out has broken out in the Middle East, and we
talked trade implications and inflation, oil and fertilizer prices and
possible time frames for this conflict. Obviously everyone's just guessing.
Joe Luxton got out of a deathbed earlier in the
week to chat to US Labour's AG spokesperson. We talked
to Michael Harvey from Rabobank Great dairy trade auction midweek
(01:46):
five point seven percent skim milk powder nine percent dairy
is on a flyer at the moment, no doubt about that.
We're going to wrap it with Alex Tate, more about
him later and Shane Jones, the self titled Prince of
the province is the mighty Martua. Has he ever been
on the end of a hand piece? I know? We
grew up on a Northland farm. All that's on the
best of the country and it's brought to you by Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
The best of the country with Rabobank. Choose the bank
with a huge network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 1 (02:21):
Rabobank.
Speaker 4 (02:23):
Cameron Bakery kicks off the show today. Cameron, as I said,
rapidly changing landscape. War has broken out effectively in the
Middle East. What does it mean for us as a
trading nation? I guess the simple answer is not really
that great.
Speaker 5 (02:37):
Well, it's not great for us it's not great for
the world. You go back to the nineteen seventies a
year to look at what happened when we saw real
oil shop. Both the first and the second you punt
over economy effectively into a recession. Now the hope is
that we're not steering down the barrel of that sort
of affair. If you look at the first oil shop,
(02:57):
you know, oil price is trebled in price, the second
all shop, they're up seventy percent in price. You what
we've seen the market reaction today, All prices are up
sort of five to ten percent. There are up about
fifteen percent from their lows in January, so that's a
little bit more of a sort of movement. But it
seems to be the hope across market at the moment
(03:19):
is going to come to a pretty swift end and
things will settle because the market reaction to date has
been reasonably subdued.
Speaker 4 (03:27):
Have the markets fact that in a Trump, a reasonably
quick Trump victory here.
Speaker 5 (03:32):
Well that's what looks like where the market is gone
for this, But of course there's going to be done
and mustered pretty quickly. Well that's the maybe dollar question,
and no one sort of knows here if you go back, Yeah,
a lot of these sort of conflicts we've seen sort
of historically. If you go back an ever, look at Afghanistan,
if you have a look at what happened in Vietnam,
the less you thought was that's going to be done
(03:53):
and dusted pretty quickly. Well they've been done and dusted
very pretty quickly. The markets have taken a glass up
for view of the moment that it's going to come
to a pretty swift end. We hope that it is
going to be the case, but if you look at
historical experience, historical experience tells us that some of these
conflicts don't come to a very quick end very quickly.
Speaker 4 (04:13):
Well, as you mentioned, Vietnam and Afghanistan are two excellent examples.
Worst case scenario, the Strait of hor moves gets completely
blocked up, nothing gets in or out. That is going
to spell well danger not only for world crude oil supplies,
but obviously for US. We send a lot of stuff
up there these days.
Speaker 5 (04:33):
Well tend to a lot of stuff that we receive,
all of stuff. If you look at New Zealand's patrol
them and patrol them related products, Yeah, what we bring in,
it's about ten billion books and the petrol is about
three billion dollars of that. But the big thing we
bring in is diesel. You know, we can live without
(04:53):
without our cars for a few days. But if you
stop the transport industry and its traps in regard to
getting things around the country, you've got made your economic problems.
And of course New Zealand's got a pretty strong dependency
in regard to inputed fuel because you got rid of
Master and point. So we're no longer bringing in crude
and then making our own product. We're bringing in the finished product.
Where does that finished product come from? It comes from Career,
(05:14):
comes from Singapore. Where does it come from? It comes
from the Middle East, the Straits of Hamoth. This is
another side to this, Jamie, which don't think people are
up to play on, is that what's going on in
the Middle East could have dramatic impact on the world's
food production. In regard to what's going on because around
half of world production is reliant on no gygen fertilizer.
(05:37):
Whether we get an awful lot of fertilizer out of
because it's gas related, it comes out of the Middle East.
Because it's not just the impact on oil markets here
that people need to be awake to in regard to
what's going on. It's a potential impact on the world's
food bowl and production costs as fertilizer carries an impact
as well because it's a function of gas.
Speaker 4 (05:56):
You're the economist, I'm a failed economist, Cameron, Inflation's number
one enemy? Can I say that of the economy?
Speaker 5 (06:05):
Now we just have the EPSOS Secies monitor, which is
the mood of the nation survey car out in the
past forty eight hours. I know the government that a
rabbits on about the economy being the biggest issue out there. Well,
for the ordinary person in the street, it's not the
economy that it's the biggest evil at the monment. It's
the cost of living is putting food on the table.
And I guess that's where if you step back and
(06:26):
think about the bigger picture in regard to what's going
on here globally, your worst case scenario or some of
those bad case scenarios in regard if you see an
oil shop, if you see a food production sort of flop,
you just add more cost inflation into the system. And
we already know that central banks at the moment have
got inflation targets by in large to two percent. They've
(06:47):
got inflation around three percent. Three percent is not bad,
but it's not two percent. And the last thing any
central bank around the globe wants to see at the
moment there's some sort of cost shock, which is what
oil price and flow or food price inflation could potentially
add into the system. If this as a persistent outcome
as opposed to a temporary outcomet, would you be.
Speaker 4 (07:09):
Game enough to guess how long this fight, this war
could last. I mean, you're an economists. You used to
making predictions and getting them wrong, So have a crack Cameron.
Speaker 5 (07:21):
Oh, yes, if I But if I sit back and yeah,
if I look at history, history tells us that these
sort of things take a little bit of time to settle.
I saw yesterday Donald Trump was saying this then will
be over in four weeks. Well now he's saying it
might not be over in four weeks. History tells us
that do not underestimate the underdog and go out to
(07:43):
the potential to dig in and make us a long
and more stretched out affair. Everyone to suspect than what theyre.
Speaker 4 (07:47):
Goes Cameron Bagri. Independent economists thanks as always for your
wisdom on the country. Really appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (07:53):
Thanks for your time, Jenny, the best of the country
with robo Bank, the bank with local agribanking experts, passionate
about the future of rural communities, Rubber Bank.
Speaker 4 (08:05):
She has got out of a deathbed today to talk
to us. She is channeling her very best Bonnie Tyler
with the husky voice. Labour's Egg spokesperson Joe Luxton And Joe,
is this a hangover from the sleepover with Federated Farmers
late last week?
Speaker 6 (08:22):
Good afternoon, Jamie. No, absolutely not. I think it's just
down to a lot of travel lately and all kinds
of bugs that are going around.
Speaker 4 (08:31):
We'll let you offer that, and I do appreciate you
making the effort to chat to us today. Now, was
this gathering, what do you actually call it? I call
it the sleep over, the pajama party, the love and
but let's show it some more respect. What's its official title?
Speaker 6 (08:46):
We've just been calling it our farmers Forum. We did
start off with a different name, but that we'd beens,
but then we were sort of let know that that
wasn't we weren't able to be using that name.
Speaker 4 (09:00):
Scaler up not like it.
Speaker 6 (09:02):
That's what I've heard.
Speaker 4 (09:04):
Was this all whoey and no dewey, where's the policy?
Speaker 6 (09:09):
I hear your frustration there, Jamie. That it was a
really a really good couple of days. I think it's
gone from strength to strengths from the very first one
to this one. We had some really really open friend
and frank conversation he talked about, we had a lot
(09:30):
of bit of a tabletops of I guess conversation to
start with. Yea, we fleshed out ideas that some of
some other MP's because there was a broad group of
Carcus members there from that held many many portfolios, which
was really good, and a lot of conversation around concerns
(09:51):
that farmers were bringing up with us, things that we've
been thinking about and as ideas perhaps going forward, and
that was really good opportunity to I guess hear the good,
the bad and the ugly about everything. It was just
really really beneficial for all of us.
Speaker 4 (10:07):
Wayne Langford on yesterday's Chean, I do don't know whether
you heard this, spoke well, not glowingly, but he spoke
positively about Chippy and the fact that he was able
to get up without notes and speak to a farming
audience with some credibility and acknowledge for forty five minutes.
He said, that was a far cry from where it
was three years ago when you started this, when they
(10:28):
had to reconvene the agenda at lunchtime because they realized
how little labor knew about agriculture. I mean, anyone who
observed the labor government of twenty twenty to twenty three,
Joe would have realized that. But to be fair to you,
and I know you've led the charge on being far
more friendly and to Chippy, at least you're listening.
Speaker 6 (10:49):
Now, absolutely, and that's been a real focus for me,
is just listening, and I think many people could benefit
from just simply less instead of talking it or over
each Chris has shown a real genuine interest in billindness
to learn and understand about the sector, have all of us,
(11:12):
and it's been really really beneficial. I keep saying that
we'd beneficial, but it's really really important, really important.
Speaker 4 (11:20):
And you've kind of put a muzzle over Damien, which
has helped the relationship as well.
Speaker 6 (11:25):
I have done nothing with Damien. Damien is our trades
berks person and does a santeste to it Chip.
Speaker 4 (11:32):
He's doing nothing at the moment, and this is almost
a backhanded compliment. He's come out with his capital gains
tax last year, floated that it went quite well. We've
seen little by nothing in the policy department from him.
Ditto for you and AGG. And I know I keep
asking you for agg policy and we've you've said you've
got to wait. But whatever it is he's doing, it's
(11:53):
kind of working because he's doing well in the polls.
He's more favorably rated than the current Prime minister. That's
all fine and dandy, Joe Luxon, but the big problem
you've got is your coalition partners. They're going to make
you unelectable, regardless of how popular Chippy might become.
Speaker 6 (12:12):
We're focused on Labor and getting as many votes to
labor is next election. And I hear your frustration, Jamie.
I hear other people wanting to know where Labour's policy is.
And you will have heard your listeners will have heard
Chris publicly say that you know, whatever we decide and
(12:34):
bring out as policy, we must and have to eviently
be able to deliver on. We can't make promises, and
does not want to make promises that we cannot deliver.
So it's really that we are responsible and we want
to wait till the budget announcement so we understand what
money is there and then we will look at the
(12:55):
policies in what will be deliverable and you will hear
from us after that.
Speaker 4 (13:01):
Okay, Well, you're cracking up on me, both personally and
via the phone line, Joe Luxton, So I'll let you go. Look,
I do appreciate you getting out of your sick bed,
and I'll await. I'll await eagerly some ag policy. I
may be an old man when it arrives, Joe, but
I'll be waiting.
Speaker 6 (13:19):
Oh God, all right, thanks ver much, Jamie.
Speaker 1 (13:22):
By bye, the best of the country with Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (13:25):
Choose the bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agribusiness experience.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
Grow with Rubbobank.
Speaker 4 (13:31):
I often say in jest that no one at Rabobank
has a short title. Well, this man is no exception.
His name is Michael Harvey, based out of the Western Ireland, Australia.
He's a senior dairy and consumer foods analyst. Michael, Good, Afternoon,
New Zealand time. The last time we chatted, you were
just to play an old senior dairy analyst.
Speaker 7 (13:53):
Jamie thinks had me. It's great to be back.
Speaker 8 (13:54):
Yeah, I think you could have added a senior vice
president in there somewhere, I think with my title. But
we'll go with dairy consumer food analysts.
Speaker 4 (14:00):
All right, Well, we might talk about presidents a wee
bit later. I've got Matt Bolger coming up from Fonterra,
he's the MD of co Op Affairs to talk about
this global deary trade auction overnight. So I'll keep the
powder are wee bit dry there? But gee, five point
seven percent the index skim milk powder nine point one
percent is an outstanding result when you look at all
(14:23):
the turmoil around the world at the moment.
Speaker 8 (14:26):
That's another strong Browns which is great news for the
exports sector in New Zealand, and then just for the
broader price signal.
Speaker 7 (14:33):
It's sends around the world around the value of milk.
Speaker 8 (14:35):
And our clear observation is, you know, it's clearly being
led by the protein complex. You've got real tightness in
the supply of skim milk powder and that's what's really
driving the recovery. We're seeing commodity prices and I think
the GDT skim offerings are on the GDT you're quite
low at the moment, so it's it's part of that
protein story is getting a bit of a boost and
that's providing upside for the broader dairy commodity complex. But
(14:58):
I think in the context of what's going on globally,
because there is a lot of milk supply still out
there in the world, but I think what it's showing
you is that there's some real bio sentiment is quite
high in terms of pricing in risk premium because of
the global noise, and that's what you see coming through
in the results. You know, a lot of buyers in
the Middle East, Southeast Asia, those sorts of regions pulling
forward some of their cover for New Zealand origin product
(15:19):
which are declining seasonally and lower on the GEDT auction.
So it's that risk premium being priced in for New
Zealand product at the moment in the short term, which
is a good result.
Speaker 4 (15:28):
So effectively Australation and our clue Australia and here Australasian
dairy farmers are benefiting and the short term from this
war in the Middle East.
Speaker 8 (15:38):
In the short term in terms of the dairy commodity complex.
Absolutely here in Australia has been a little bit different.
We haven't actually seen the downside in farm gate pricing
that you have previously because we've got a different pricing
structure here. But certainly, you know, high commodity prices in
US dollar terms has already provided some upside back into
the milk price in New Zealand, and we still think
there might be a little bit more upside in the
(15:58):
current season. And it's certainly you know, provides a bit
of momentum around what the payout forecast might look like
for the new season. So yeah, it's beneficial from that perspective,
but you can't ignore the risk on the other side, Jamie,
that you know, in amongst all this, there is some
margin outlook risk because of what might happen in the
Middle East if things continue to escalate and it's in
(16:19):
a drawn out conflict, and it really sits around energy
and the supply and supply risks that come from things
like fertilizer. So that's the angle we're looking at here.
I mean, energy prices are already up, there's more upside
risk if it's a conflict is prolonged and the higher
they stay for longer, the more problematic that becomes for
the global economy and everything else.
Speaker 7 (16:39):
So we're watching that end.
Speaker 8 (16:41):
But of course we know that there's a lot of
fertilizer that comes out of the Middle East region into
our markets in this part of the world. So it's
price risk, but it's also supply risk if you can't
actually get the product into market. So there's a bit
of a watch on that perspective, and that's the key
thing we'd be thinking about.
Speaker 4 (16:56):
And obviously there's going to be a bit of a
watch on infistrates. More importantly, inflation the number one enemy
of the economy, that's.
Speaker 8 (17:04):
Right, and that's the risk for most economies around the
world now is if you do get higher oil prices
for longer, that that is problematic for global economies and
global growth, and then that does change potentially the outlook
around central banks and their policy and monetary policy and
what it might do for interest rates, but also then
how that feeds into the currencies and things like that,
(17:26):
and the other thing to think about in all this,
particularly with a dairy hat on, is clearly high oil
prices generally drag the grain and oil seed complex higher
so that can mean clearly a spike in feed costs,
which have been quite affordable for a lot of dairy
farmers around the world at the moment. If you get
upside risk in terms of feed prices, that does change
the margin outlook for producers outside of New Zealand, and
(17:46):
it might actually change the outlook around milk production growth
as well. So there's a few layers to it all,
but clearly, yeah, absolutely, the whole discussion around energy prices
being up, what that means for global economies and how
central banks will respond to that will be a clear
clear watching them coming months.
Speaker 4 (18:03):
Will all this extra milk being produced around the world
and I'll only be encouraged by these higher prices. Will
it all find a home eventually?
Speaker 8 (18:11):
Well, there's always that short term trade disruption that you
get because the Middle East is an important market, particularly
for milk powder, and if you looked at the recent
trends over the last couple of years, it's been an
increasingly growing outlet for New Zealand origin milk powder in
the absence of a fairly flat China import program, so
that that's important there. So you're watching to see there's
any major disruption to that in the short to medium term,
(18:34):
you put a lot of product into that region as well.
So that's the thing we're thinking about, what might happen
with all that milk powder that might be disruptured going
into that region. But fundamentally, and this comes back to
our outlook, we're about to put out a global outlook,
which is a difficult time to do when.
Speaker 7 (18:49):
You've got so many moving parts.
Speaker 8 (18:50):
But we still think that right now there is a
lot of milk still out there in export regions around
the world, But we're baked into our forecast slow down
in milk product growth anyway, and that will start to
kick in from the second half of this year. So yeah,
there might be some short term pressure that comes back
on the global market if there is disruption to trade,
but ultimately, over the next felve months, we see a
(19:10):
much better balanced global market anyway, because the supply growth
that we've had will normalize and the demand settings that
we've seen coming through in terms of recovery, we're getting better.
But you just can't ignore that there's a lot of
uncertain at the moment around some of that.
Speaker 4 (19:25):
How long you've been a vice president for that's a
very americanized title.
Speaker 8 (19:28):
Michael Harthy, No, not a vice president, just to senior
analysis thro Rabobank.
Speaker 4 (19:34):
Just a plain old senior dairy and consumer foods analysts.
Great to have your analytical mind on the country today.
Thanks for the exign.
Speaker 1 (19:43):
Thanks for having me the Best of the Country with Ravobank.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
Choose the bank with a huge network of progressive farming
clients Ravo Bank.
Speaker 4 (20:01):
Welcome back to the Best of the Country. Good morning.
My name's Jamie McKay. The show's brought to you on
a Saturday morning by Rabobank. We're growing a better New
Zealand together playing ac DC because it is synonymous with sharing.
The show's coming to you from Marsterton where we are
here well namely me for the Golden Shares tonight in
the world Sharing and wool Handling Champs. It's going to
(20:23):
be a beauty. Good luck to the New Zealand teams
competing in that. Up next on the Best of the Country.
Alex Tait, a former Black Cap, played a few games
odii's for New Zealand in the nineteen nineties. Had a
crack at had a crack at a career, should I say,
as a professional golfer. These days he's a professional caddie
(20:43):
at tara Ety. Very interesting man, great colorful background, very
keen hunter as well. The raws on at the moment
there's a lot of people going out hunting fair all
dare and good on you. They're a real pest. But
the injury rate, the numbers out of acc are terrible.
So we're going to talk a wee bit that and
we're going to wrap it with Shane Jones. The self
titled Prince of the Province is the Mighty Martua, covering
(21:06):
everything from the Middle East. Y Winston's such a great statesman.
Is ongoing debate over gold mining in Central Otago and
does he have a background on the end of a handpiece.
It is, of course golden shares and World Wool Handling
Day Here in the waira rapper just before I forget.
Courtesy of Rabobank, it's the tenth edition of Rabobank Good
Deeds Competition and to celebrate they're giving away one hundred
(21:29):
thousand dollars ten prizes of ten thousand dollars each to
upgrade ten rural community hubs across New Zealand. Ten grand
will make a real difference. One lucky one I will
get a day's free labor from the teams at Rabobank
in the country. If you want to enter, just go
to the Rabobank website and search for good Deeds or
simply text good to our text number five doub nine
(21:52):
and we'll send you the link to enter. Up next,
Alex Tate caught up with them on Thursday show at
Tara ety.
Speaker 2 (22:03):
The best of the Country with Rubber Bank, the bank
with local agri banking experts passionate about the future of
rural communities Rubber Bank.
Speaker 4 (22:12):
For all you keen hunters out there, the raw is
about to get underway now. Acc data shows severe hunting
injuries doubled compared to the average month, with forty percent
affecting knee and shoulders. Now we're going to discuss this
with a very keen hunter, a very keen golfer, and
a very good cricket player, Alex Tait, former Black Cap
(22:35):
of course, professional golfer, was a professional golfer these days,
almost a professional caddy and a keen hunter. Alex, I
just want to start with the story of the day,
and you're probably too busy to have a look at it.
But those black caps for no Allen one hundred off
thirty three balls. Did that happen in your day when
you were playing for ND and the black Caps.
Speaker 7 (22:56):
It's a different game now, Jamie.
Speaker 9 (22:58):
I'm quite glad I'm not playing it these days.
Speaker 7 (23:00):
It really is.
Speaker 9 (23:01):
I mean, it isn't just a twenty twenty version either.
It's whether you're talking about Test matchal fifty over. Cricket
is just a completely different, completely different game to what
we played back in the nineties. Two hundred and forty
was a pretty decent score back in nineteen ninety six.
So pretty glad I'm not playing it these days.
Speaker 4 (23:20):
Yeah, you're real all around that. You're a very good golfer,
a very good cricket player, you were a very good
squash play Any good on the end of a rifle?
Can you shoot straight?
Speaker 7 (23:31):
I'm not too bad.
Speaker 9 (23:33):
I guess you'd have to ask a few of my
hunting buddies whether I'm any good or not. But yeah,
I've been a keen hunter for probably twenty five twenty
six years now. It was always a neat little getaway
for me when I had a week or two off
from sports. So still enjoy it, still enjoy it, Still
get out of the want I can now in.
Speaker 4 (23:52):
The commercial break when we were teeing up this interview,
I didn't realize that, I said to you, because you're
at Northlander through and through, and I said, has the
raw starded yet in Northland? Then you told me there's
no deer north of Auckland. I didn't realize that.
Speaker 9 (24:05):
No, it depends. Woodhall Forest is probably the most northern
deer heerd in New Zealand, so places like Helensville and
cal cop places like that. You'll get a few private
farms that have had a few strays come out of
Woodhall Forests. So, and if you're talking in that's fellow deer.
If you're talking about red there, I would guess Portyhadow
(24:31):
or the Kaimies something like that is probably as far
north as red deers ventured in New Zealand at the stage. So,
as far as I know, doc are not particularly keen
on any any deer and Northland at this stage. But yeah,
that's about as far north as they come.
Speaker 4 (24:48):
The stats aren't good and as I said at the beginning,
severe injuries double compared to your average month. This is
when the raws are on. These injuries result in an
average of seventy six days away from and work.
Speaker 9 (25:00):
I must have I've touched wood. I've been pretty lucky
as far as that's concerned. Probably since i've been working
here Tarah Eddie, I've I've been going hunting with three
or four three or four friends or sort of Southwest
North Island. So, but the previous to that, I was,
you know, I didn't have the luxury of having any
(25:23):
hunting hunting companions, so I spent a lot of time.
Speaker 7 (25:27):
In the Chimis.
Speaker 9 (25:27):
I lived in Meta Meta for five years. Spent a
lot of time in the Cimise, which is pretty thick stuff.
So I guess I had to be a little more
more careful than a lot of guys that have got
hunting buddies. But as I say, the last seven or
eight years, I've been lucky enough to have three or
four guys that I go in with all the time.
Speaker 4 (25:45):
Now, So tell me about Alex Tate, the golfer, the cricketer,
the professional caddy. What you're up to? Are you living
the dream at Tara Eatie caddying for the rich and famous.
Speaker 9 (25:57):
It's I do enjoy I do enjoy it, especially like
I'm nearing the mid fifties now, so I basically walk
ten to twelve kilometers every day, which keeps me reasonably fit.
And because we're not actually employed by TARI, we're outside contractors.
Speaker 7 (26:15):
So if I want.
Speaker 9 (26:17):
To go fishing tomorrow, I just put across in the
notebook and I go fishing. If I don't work, I
ain't get paid. So it's but basically up to me
what days I work, how much I work, when I
go fishing, when I go hunting, So I'm not sort
of strapped into a nine to five job as it is.
Speaker 4 (26:37):
So yeah, last night last weekend, you were at Millbrook.
You were caddying for I think Paul Blackwell, one of
the leading business people in this country. He's been a
sponsor of Dan Elliert. You were in that same group.
Must have been a thrill. How good does that young
man flush the ball?
Speaker 9 (26:54):
He's one of the best of scene. And I said
that to Paul the first time we played with him
back in twenty twenty. Just especially his eyes. For someone
that hits the ball so far, he's he's accurate, the
distance distance controls just incredible. But literally every time he
(27:14):
hits a golf for you can just tell that it's
just it's it's just been hammered. It really is good
fun to watch him. And like I said to you,
we had Stevie Williams in our group again and he
made a prediction after about nine holes. We're sort of
talking about his ball striking and Stevie just looked at
(27:36):
me and said, mate, there's something different about him this year.
He just looks more composed. He looks a little bit
more mature now he's had a bit of time in Europe.
He just said he shoots twenty five this week and
wins it. And he was three shots out. He shot
twenty two under and won it and that was after
nine holes. So he gives you an idea of.
Speaker 7 (27:58):
Of how good he is.
Speaker 9 (27:59):
If someone like Stevie Williams can make a comment like that.
Speaker 4 (28:03):
Yeah, and Ash Party was in your group as well.
You are mixing with the rich and famous. Final question
for you, Alex Tate, because I know you've got to
go away and do some caddying at in New Zealand's
most prestigious golf course, Tara eighty. Who's the most famous
person you've cadded for?
Speaker 9 (28:19):
He carried too many famous ones, a lot of warblacks,
a lot of cricketers.
Speaker 7 (28:27):
I have had.
Speaker 9 (28:28):
I didn't care they for him, but I have been
in the same group as Alice Cooper. He was here
a few years ago, and he's a good golfer. Here's
a good golfer. He actually played this is going back
I'm guessing four or five years now. He actually played
it on his seventy second birthday. I think it was
February the fourth, from memory, and it was his seventy
(28:48):
second birthday and he was saying the previous year he
had played one hundred and ninety one concerts in a
calendar year at the age of seventy one. So pretty such.
Speaker 7 (29:01):
Sort of guy.
Speaker 9 (29:02):
But yeah, now he's a good golfer, an an interesting story,
so it's good to have him in the group.
Speaker 4 (29:06):
Hey, Alex Taito could chat all day. Former black cap,
former professional golfer these days, professional caddie at Tara Etie,
you're living the dream and if you're out there hunters,
be careful during the roar. Thanks for your time, Alex, Pleasure,
Thank you, Jamie.
Speaker 1 (29:20):
The best of the country with Rubbobank.
Speaker 2 (29:23):
Choose the bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agribusiness experience.
Speaker 1 (29:27):
Grow with Rubbobank.
Speaker 4 (29:29):
Here is the Prince of the Province's self titled Martua
Shane Jones. Shane, you're a very worldly man. How worried
should we be about the world at the moment? Put
this into some historic perspective for me? Please?
Speaker 10 (29:45):
Well, we're never there are missiles flying ships being sunk
apparently in the Indian Ocean. Even us distant Kiwis nestled
in the South Pacific are going to be affected and impacted.
But I want everyone remember we were already passed a
bunch of regulations last year requiring the fuel companies to
(30:05):
increase their holdings here in New Zealand. I'm told that
there is nine on fifty days. I'm worth of holdings here.
But although we derive our fuel and whatnot from South
Korea and Singapore, the challenges where's the raw material going
to come from? So no, no, it's definitely hawkkehy like our
focus from Treasury and our Finance Minister on the issue.
(30:28):
But I'm really happy that we passed the regulations in
anticipation that New Zealand would need to stare more fuel
in the event there was geopolitical.
Speaker 5 (30:38):
Excesses.
Speaker 4 (30:39):
How big a cock cup was it? Mothballing milestone point.
Speaker 10 (30:44):
Look, there are two major major snaffoos in the energy sector.
The first one was just Cinder canceling the oil and
gas industry, and the second one was Megan Woods canceling
and selling now closing down the refinery, an extraordinarily stupid
(31:04):
thing to have done in a vain attempt to burnish
New Zealand's credentials that we were single handedly going to
save the planet. We're much the poorer for it, and
not a single listener to your show should ever doubt
the Labor Party had every chance to maintain that asset
in ownership. They stood by and actually allowed the sale
(31:27):
of the asset, and we're much the poorer for it.
As we are learning right now.
Speaker 4 (31:32):
We currently have the PM misspeaking and winston sharpest attack
from South America on foreign policy. Have we got the
wrong guy running the country? Could Shane Jones the Kingmaker
become king? Does the Kingmaker want to be king? And
does that make you prince?
Speaker 10 (31:51):
Well, let's not get too aspirational about monarchy. There's a
certain prince in another part of the world who is
in a great deal of drama. Coming back to Winston,
I mean care we should be not only respectful but
reassured that we have such a wily navigator. We have
someone who is speaking in a vein that gives reassurance
(32:14):
to Kiwis that we're not going to be bullied by
the extreme hypocrisy of the Green Party or other self
appointed political experts. And at the same time we support
each other in our coalition arrangements. But Winston is exclusively
the Foreign Affairs minister. When he's back from Latin America
(32:35):
over the weekend, you'll hear a lot more from him.
Speaker 4 (32:38):
Could we have a scenario where the kingmaker has the
balance of power and gets a larger proportion of the vote,
maybe ten twelve, who knows fifteen percent and demands to
be prime minister.
Speaker 10 (32:51):
Well, Winston got over thirteen percent of the vote in
nineteen ninety six. It's not our style, it's not his
style to make demands of any nature, because Kiwi's can
turn on the head of a dime. Reallywi's absolutely Kiwis
know that the elections on November the scene.
Speaker 4 (33:10):
He said it's not in Winston's nature to make demands.
Did I misshair that? Did you misspeak?
Speaker 10 (33:16):
The reality is the demand comes from the public. The
public reflect through their voting power, how much authority or
influence each party is going to enjoy. So any loose talk,
that's somehow we're demanding to form a particular character formation
of the government. That's up to the public and my
(33:38):
job and Winston's job and the both of us. And
we're going to go around New Zealand erynook and cranny
asking for the public to back us, and I believe
they will.
Speaker 4 (33:47):
Well I'll take that as a yes. Winston wants to
be Prime minister back to the Middle East? Could this
easily stall or derail the economic recovery? Inflations the number
one threat to the economy.
Speaker 10 (34:00):
Well, number one on people's mind, Jamie. You know as
well as I do. Even the money floating around the
farming sector was up at dargeable recently. There's the cost
of living, but you know, you always do have other issues,
not the least of which is the environment. But then
there's a lot of businesses under pressure as well, Jamie,
U South Island is Why is your largest city, christ
(34:20):
Church threatening to pour all the sewage over my beloved
marine farming industry on the upskirts of chrish Church. Why
is the Bromley Why am I hearing it. The Bromley
poopon is about to be deluged over all sorts of
oyster growing and salmon growing and fish growing enterprises down there.
The hacker you South Island is up to well, I don't.
Speaker 4 (34:41):
Know a North Islander wants to pollute some of the
South Island water systems with this gold mining. This will
get a bite in central Otargi.
Speaker 10 (34:51):
The Matua is coming not to give a sermon from
the mount but to bring overdue economic opportunity to the
South Island. And I know I got criticized for being
unkind to Sir Sam Neil, and I was told by
a member of the public, don't boot a Labrador. But
the reality is if you get involved in these debates,
(35:13):
even if it's Sea and Taylor, I am not going
to pull my punches because I'm standing up for the
garden variety Kiwi whose kids are going all over to
Australia to dig up somewhere around cal Gooley. And we've
got these self appointed guardians who have only succeeded in
pulling up the ladder and denying other quis a chart.
Speaker 4 (35:30):
Have you found a venue in a time, a date
for your debate? With Sarah Taylor.
Speaker 10 (35:36):
Well number one, I have no idea why see and
bothered to take up my invite, but I'm very happy
that he has. And look, debating politically is a pugilistic
sport now. The last time I heard that he wanted
to have a debate but no audience, and he wanted
to get Paddy Gower involved. Of course I promoted you
until Sean Plunkett got jealous and said it should be him.
(35:58):
But I'll back you, mate, if I want an audience there.
If he can pick fifty, I can pick fifty, he
can pick seventy five, I'll pick twenty five and have
an old fair dinkin on yard, not scrap but debate.
But you know, I like going soft on the personality,
hard on the issue. But these tarrass people. They've tried
(36:19):
to demean my personality. They're leaving me alone now because
they know I've got new Zealanders on my site.
Speaker 4 (36:24):
A final question for your Golden Shares World Sharing Championships
are on at the moment you grew up on a
Northland beef farm that you had a few sheep running around.
Are you any good on the end of a hand piece?
Speaker 10 (36:34):
No, I'm sorry. We had a guy Simpson to Futta
in the Pike cares from in and around the navor
Steve McNally. He's very handy. I had a cousin Miguel Lloyd.
I think he shared single handedly millions of sheep himself
in his lifetime. He's a good ten or fifteen years
older than me. No, no, I was on a farm
where we were milking the odder. And that's not being
(36:55):
on the public purse.
Speaker 4 (36:57):
Shade, I reckon and the sharing shed. You'd be quite
good on the press tramping the wall.
Speaker 10 (37:04):
There's too many tough women in front of me to
do that job.
Speaker 4 (37:08):
Bro Oh, you've got the god given phyzeke for that job.
Shane Jones, Prince of the Province, is always good to
have your time on the country.
Speaker 1 (37:14):
Thank you very much, The Best of the Country with Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (37:19):
Choose the bank with a huge network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 4 (37:23):
Rabobank, the self titled Prince of the Province is the
mighty martuur Shane Jones, even if he says so himself,
wrapping the Best of the Country. Good morning, My name's
Jamie McKay. The show's brought to you by Rabobank. We're
growing a better New Zealand together. Remember to enter the
(37:43):
Rabobank Good Deeds Competition. We've got one hundred grand to
give away, ten prizes of ten thousand dollars. Texts good
to five double oh nine and we'll send you the
entry link right. Good luck to the New Zealand Sharing
and wall handling teams tonight in Masterton, Roland, Smith Tower, Henderson,
the machine sharing Joel henare a Marika Braddock in the
(38:05):
war handling and let's not forget our blade sharers. The
roof is going to be lifted from the Memorial Hall
here in Marsterden. We'll catch you back with the Golden
Shares and World Champion. Hopefully it's a Kiwi on Monday show.
Till then, take care. I'm going to leave you with
a bit of akadaka.
Speaker 11 (38:36):
Que saw.
Speaker 9 (39:52):
Something.
Speaker 11 (39:57):
Yes, yes, Joe
Speaker 1 (40:07):
Somewhere, Giant somewhere, give me some
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