September 11, 2026 • 41 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Damien O'Connor, Jen Corkran, Winston Peters, and Jane Smith.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The best of the country with Robobank. Choose the bank
with 120 years global agribusiness experience. Grow with Robobank.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Harry got up Dressed all in black.
Speaker 3 (00:16):
Went down to the station.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
And he never came back They found his clothing Scattered
somewhere down the track.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Good morning, New Zealand. Welcome to the best of the country.
I'm Jamie Mackay. Good to be back on the show.
After being laid low for three weeks, believe it or not,
I've only had about three sick days in 30 years.
By influenza A, I pity anyone out there who's suffered
the same fate. Never mind, I'm back up and running,
(00:55):
and we've got a great show lined up for you today.
This was my first week back on the tools after,
as I said, three weeks off. By the way, Don Henley,
New York Minute, unofficial anthem for 9-11. Today is 9-11,
American time. We're going to kick off the show with
Damien O'Connor, a man who I often clash swords with.
(01:17):
But I had to congratulate him earlier in the week
on Labour's decision to finally come out with some ag policy.
As their leader Chris Hipkins said, they will not campaign
on pricing agricultural emissions. And Damien and I debated, argued,
whatever you want, who was to blame for carbon farming
gobbling up some of our most productive pastoral and food
(01:40):
producing land. I'm also going to replay an interview I
did Did midweek with Jen Corcoran, Rabobank's senior ag analyst,
having a look at the September Agribusiness Monthly Report. Yep,
Rabobank do one of these each month. Now in September,
the commodity outlooks remain pretty positive, but the problem is
(02:02):
the other side of the ledger, the increase in the
price of farm inputs. Winston Peters, good to catch up
with him again, New Zealand first leader. former Deputy Prime Minister,
commenting on the two big issues, or two of the
big issues, facing farming as we head into the election,
the Paris Accord, should we be in or out, and
(02:22):
the pricing of agricultural emissions. He also denied his proposed
nationalisation of the BNZ was a harebrained policy. He barked
back at that one, plus he reflected on 9-11 25
years on. We're going to wrap it with Jane Smith,
North Otago farmer, award-winning environmentalist, singing the praises of Open
(02:43):
Country Dairy's Mark Delatorre and what he had to say
about Paris. Plus she had a good one-liner about the
Opportunities Party or the Opportunities Party ag policy. She said
it was a cross between Gloria Vale and the Jets.
It's a great turn of phrase from Jane Smith. It's
all on the best of the country on 9-11 US
(03:04):
time and it's brought to you by Rabobank.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
The best of the country with Rabobank. Choose the bank
with a huge network of progressive farming clients. Rabobank.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
Second day back on the tools here on the country,
and I was really looking forward to kicking off the
show today with an argument, but bugger it. I find
myself agreeing with the Labour Party. Here's their trade spokesperson,
Damien O'Connor. Good to see Chippy come out this morning,
Damien O'Connor, and say Labour would not campaign on pricing
(03:44):
agricultural emissions. Finally, the pennies dropped for your lot.
Speaker 4 (03:49):
Look, you know, you're agreeing with me, Jan, and lucky
I'm sitting down, I would have fallen over. Look, the
ETS has been a bit of an nightmare. It was,
of course, the farmers' preferred option because we'd originally proposed
like a simple carbon tax that could have reinvested money
back into agriculture. Nonetheless, we've moved on. We've been through
a complex set of changes. The national government allowed in
(04:14):
foreign cheap credits, mucked up the market. We came back
in and we tried to, I guess, to recredit the market.
And it's been a bit of a muddle. And of course,
the forestry sector had always lobbied to get their credits
in as offsets. And That has meant that the price
from ETS hasn't changed behaviour. It means that we've had
(04:35):
more trees in the ground. Shane Jones with his billion
trees didn't help when we were negotiating in 2017. Nonetheless,
we need to make these changes.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
Yeah, but you're rewriting history here, Damien O'Connor, because... Yes,
you are. This all came about with Jacinda and Shane
and their billion trees policy.
Speaker 4 (04:56):
No, look, we were having forest planted for carbon. The
fact that the carbon credits weren't worth anything because National
had let in the foreign cheap credits meant that the
market slumped, but we'd actually had forestry generating carbon credits
since the set-up of the ETS. It's just that it
(05:17):
did take off, yes. Shane Jones had.
Speaker 5 (05:20):
Left the door open.
Speaker 4 (05:21):
Actually, the farmers could only invest in production forests, not
for carbon, but it was a bit of both.
Speaker 5 (05:26):
So, yes, I accept that we had.
Speaker 4 (05:29):
A massive, you know, afforestation still below the levels that
we had in 1999. But nonetheless, there's a lot of
good dry stock farming opportunities land gone into trees when
it shouldn't. There's probably a bit of dairy land or
dry stock farming that's gone into dairy that shouldn't as well.
So there's a bit of muddled land use, and I
(05:50):
think we're going to work through that.
Speaker 3 (05:51):
Yeah, okay, Damien, but I don't want to re-litigate history
myself here, but the difference between 1999 and what we
faced in the past half a dozen years or so
was that back in 99, we were planting trees, yes,
but we weren't planting high-quality, pastoral land and trees?
Speaker 5 (06:10):
No, no.
Speaker 4 (06:11):
There are some good farms that have gone to trees.
I accept that that is wrong. We put in government,
put millions of dollars to boost the wool industry. That's
starting to work now. We need dual income from those
dry stock farming operations. And, you know, we've got good
prices for beef at the moment. So it's kind of
moving in the right direction for dry stock. But the
absence of any real income meant that people just sold
(06:33):
out for trees.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
Now, finally, as I said, Labour has come out with
some policy. Now, why didn't you do your poor old
ag spokesperson, Jo Luxton, a bit of a favour and
let her announce some of this ag policy on the
Q & A rural debate? She was hung out to dry.
They were laughing at her.
Speaker 4 (06:51):
Oh, that's terrible. Look, it was a bit awkward for
Jo because there is some good policy in the pipeline.
Speaker 3 (06:56):
Yeah, but Damien, we're only two months away from an election.
For God's sake, get your policy out there.
Speaker 4 (07:02):
Oh, look, Jamie, I'm not in charge. You know, sometimes
I wish I was. Look, we've got a programme and
it is important that people get to see the policy
in a way that's not indigestible. Dump it all out
at once and no one will know what's out there.
So we will have some good policy coming out. It
is for a better New Zealand. We can't afford to have...
this current government carry on for another three years. It
(07:23):
would just be disastrous. Costs are going out of control.
We've got an economy that take away what's happening in
the rural sectors, and it's slumped.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
Absolutely. New Zealand's almost totally dependent on the primary sector. Now,
having watched the Q & A debate, and I think
of Steve Abel, Daniel Ebb, and who was the other one?
Poor old Joe. Heaven help us if your lot got
in charge. It would be the death of farming.
Speaker 4 (07:51):
Oh, get over it.
Speaker 3 (07:52):
No, I'm not getting over it. What did you make
of what Steve Abel was talking about?
Speaker 4 (07:56):
Steve Abel was pointing out some very real issues that
are facing us into the future. There are some big
issues around nitrates in Canterbury and Southland and in the Waikato.
And if we don't address those, then the dairy industry
in particular is going to hit a brick wall, you know,
in about five to 10 years, if not sooner. And
we have to make sure that we have truly sustainable,
(08:18):
because people are investing billions of dollars, truly sustainable systems.
Speaker 3 (08:23):
Also this morning, Chippy came out and said Labour is
fully committed to the Paris Agreement and will put New
Zealand on course to meet its targets. How are you
going to do that without pricing agricultural emissions?
Speaker 4 (08:38):
Look, we're going to have to incentivise, and some of
that work is going on at the moment. We put
a couple of hundred million dollars into AgriZero as a
government when we were in, and some of that technology
is coming through. It's going to have to come through
pretty quickly. Farmers are going to have to take it
up if we are to reduce our ag emissions. But
(08:58):
across the rest of the economy, we've got to see
faster progress as well. So it is a big challenge
for us. But if we were to walk away from Paris,
people would just say, well, stuff you. You're not doing
your bit. We're burning in Europe. We've got these massive issues.
It's not just Nepal, but you wait and see some
of the other glaciers around the world. If we're not
doing our bit, we will be shut.
Speaker 5 (09:20):
Out of markets.
Speaker 3 (09:21):
Okay, a final comment from Chippy, and I'm quoting him here.
He said, some large exporters were driving... this changed themselves, i.e.
emissions reductions, noting that Fonterra and Silver Fern Farms were
trying to reduce emissions. But the report goes on to
say these firms are struggling to meet their targets. Fonterra
(09:41):
is targeting a 30% reduction in emissions intensity by 2030
compared to 2018, yet as of 2025 had achieved just 3.8%
of a reduction. Yep.
Speaker 4 (09:56):
We're just going to have to try harder, aren't we?
We are all going to have to do this.
Speaker 5 (10:00):
That.
Speaker 4 (10:00):
Otherwise, you know, if we talk about future generations and farming,
it's going to be a very, very sad place for
them to be. Not just the conditions that they face
farming because of the events like Gabriel, but also the
difficulty getting into markets where people will be saying, you've
got to help us reduce the impact of global warming.
(10:21):
And if you're not trying, then we'll go somewhere else.
Speaker 3 (10:24):
Hey, Damien, your ag policy sounds a bit like my
Secondary school reports must try harder.
Speaker 5 (10:31):
Well, I.
Speaker 4 (10:33):
Think it's upon all of us to try harder. And
we can't reverse things overnight. We can't make massive changes
or revolution overnight, but we're going to have to move
in the right direction. And the current government at the
moment is moving in the wrong direction for the wrong reasons.
Speaker 3 (10:48):
Damien O'Connor, Labour's candidate for Waitaki. That's going to be
a really interesting race. Thanks for your time on The Country.
Speaker 5 (10:56):
You're welcome.
Speaker 4 (10:56):
Thanks, Jamie.
Speaker 1 (10:58):
The best of the country with Rabobank. The bank with
local agribanking experts passionate about the future of rural communities. Rabobank.
Speaker 3 (11:12):
Good morning, New Zealand. Welcome back to the best of
the country. The show's brought to you by Rabobank. Each
and every Saturday morning here on Newstalk ZB between six
and seven. I'm Jamie Mackay. Good to be back on
the tools after a bit of an extended break. layoff
with influenza A. Stay away from that. Trust me on
that one. Up next, Jen Corcoran, Rabobank's senior ag analyst,
(11:35):
having a look at the September Agri Business Monthly, good
and bad news and that. Winston Peters, New Zealand first leader,
former deputy prime minister, foreign minister, of course, commenting on
a couple of the really big issues facing farming as
we head into the election, the Paris Accord and the
pricing of agricultural emissions. We're going to wrap it with
Jane Smith. who had some great one-liners on the show on,
(12:02):
when was it, Wednesday or Thursday? It's been a bit
of a blur this week in some ways. So much happening.
So looking forward to the WAS tonight and the All
Blacks tomorrow. Hey, but before I forget, Rabobank is proud
to be the principal sponsor of the Red Meat Sector Conference,
which will take place in Wellington later this month. The
conference offers a valuable opportunity to share ideas, challenge thinking,
(12:25):
and explore practical solutions to the opportunities and challenges facing
the red meat sector in the years ahead. To find
out more, visit the conference website, redmeatsector.co.nz. Up next, Jan Corcoran.
(12:52):
She is a Senior Animal Protein Analyst for Rabobank. Everyone's
got a title there. Her name is Jen Corcoran. Jen,
monthly you guys at Rabobank come out with your Agribusiness
Monthly Report. And if I look at it, and I
look at the left and the right, on the left-hand
side is the commodity prices. They're all, or outlooks, they're
all pretty good. Dairy, beef, sheep, meat, pretty good. I
(13:14):
look on the right-hand side of the ledger, farm inputs,
interest and exchange rates, oil and freight, not so flash.
Speaker 6 (13:22):
Good afternoon, Jamie. Yes, that's a great summary for this
first monthly of the spring, September. And, you know, we've
titled it A Spring in the Steppe, which probably speaks
more to that commodity side of things. You know, things
are really looking quite good out there. And, you know,
we've got record highs across parts of the red meat
sector still right now. But as you say, there's a
(13:44):
lot of watching points around that farm input side. And
it's fair to say things aren't very settled in the
Middle East yet. And, you know, the dollar is slightly
stronger than it's been as well. So there's a few
things playing into the cost side of businesses, I think,
that we need to really be keeping an eye on
and talking about as we go into the busy seasons.
Speaker 3 (14:02):
OK, let's start with the income side of the ledger.
And I want to start with dairying. I was a
bit worried that that was cooling its jets a bit,
but we've had a couple of positive GDT auctions. So
is it steadying the ship there?
Speaker 6 (14:15):
Yeah, things are steadying out, Jamie, and we expect that
to perhaps continue as milk supply growth globally starts to
slow down, right? So that's what's really driving things. We've
also got really good demand for the powders happening. There's
still a lot of that butterfat and cheese basically supply
out there. So that's sort of holding things back in
(14:36):
that space. But as the season goes on, You know,
the view of rubber research is that we've got good
upside potentially there, so things are looking quite good from
a potential farm gate milk price perspective in New Zealand.
Speaker 3 (14:48):
And if we look at all of our commodities, in
some ways beef has been the star of the stable
of what's happening in the U.S. despite the tariffs. But
you're cautioning a bit of a warning here regarding that
trim price for beef, the stuff they want to put
into their hamburgers in the U.S., Why is that happening?
I thought there was just an out-and-out shortage.
Speaker 6 (15:10):
Yeah, well, there really is an out-and-out shortage of basically
domestic trim in the United States, and that is not
expected to go away anytime soon. What's changing around at
the moment a little bit is that the US has
opened up the other country's quota tariff and basically reduced
it to zero tariff. or they say they're going to,
for about 300,000 tonnes of beef. Now, what that means, Jamie,
(15:31):
is that doesn't affect us really at all in terms
of our access into the United States market. But Brazil,
who's looking for a home for a lot of beef
because they can't actually see much into China right now
for other different China quota reasons, means that they may
start to pop more beef up into that market. And
what we're seeing is that US imported trim prices softening
(15:52):
quite kind of rapidly.
Speaker 7 (15:53):
At the moment.
Speaker 6 (15:54):
However, let's remember, it's at a very all-time high. And,
you know, our prices are also, because of that, very,
very strong. So we're coming down from a higher base
because there potentially might be a little bit more product
for the next 90-odd days going into the United States.
But again, remembering New Zealand's got great relationships into the
US for that trim. We've got good, consistent, compliant, safe product.
(16:17):
And so I think, you know, we're not necessarily competing
all the time with some of these other countries that
might be able to flood a market on a volume
perspective if those relationships don't perhaps exist in other countries.
So we'll just keep an eye on it. That might
be why we're seeing a little bit of softening in,
you know... Farmgate prices for bull and cow-cow at the moment,
but it is coming down off a very, very strong position.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
There's a lot of sheep farmers out there at the
moment on the lambing beat, listening hopefully to this show.
Have you got words of encouragement for them? What are
the prospects for lamb like, Jen Corcoran?
Speaker 6 (16:50):
Yeah, great question, Jamie, and we talked about this, you know,
this time last year, right, because things were really picking
up and, you know, we're sitting steady.
Speaker 5 (16:57):
Above $ 12.
Speaker 6 (16:58):
At the moment, obviously in a very low supply period
before these lambs grow bigger and start to hit the
market before Christmas. So the big question will really be
when that supply turns on and to what degree in
New Zealand because the export situation around that average export
value hit a new record in July at over $ 17,
which is a crazy amount of money because you're low
(17:19):
on average. Now, the reason for that is that we've
got a good diverse range of markets for our lamb.
They're willing to pay for it. There's a global shortage
of sheep as well, thanks to Aussie, and the northern
hemisphere in general around the UK and Europe. So good
demand broadly for sheep meat. Mutton prices are also doing
great things. I'm reasonably positive for the outlook for this season.
(17:41):
I think the big question will be how many lambs
hit the New Zealand processing sector at once. if that
even happens at all, right, and that's kind of more
around the weather. So I think we're sitting in a
good spot. We're above $ 12. It's likely to soften through
that peak, but I can't see any situation where we
would expect it to fall off a cliff in any direction.
Speaker 3 (18:02):
Right, let's quickly finish on, because we've touched on farm inputs. Obviously,
fertiliser and fuel are a real issue off the back
of what's happening in the Middle East, but I want
to just finish on interest rates and the exchange rate. Now,
we're currently at about 59 US cents. You guys at
Rabobank are expecting us to get to 61 in the
(18:22):
next 12 months. I guess we can live with that.
The interesting one is interest rates. Ben Pickton, your guy
in Sydney, chief economist effectively, is saying another couple of
rises to 3.25%. And do you know what I think, Jen?
I think we can live with that because if I
look across the Tasman to where Ben's making these predictions,
The Aussies are currently at 4.35%, with future rises in prospect.
(18:48):
So maybe we're not doing that bad after all.
Speaker 6 (18:52):
No, we're not doing too bad. And I think the
rubber research view here that Ben talks about is that
the New Zealand economy is recovering. And I think we're
all kind of aware of that now. There's just that
little bit of inflation management that isn't quite finished. And
so what we're expecting because of all of that, and
it's been well kind of versed this year is that
there is still more rises to come, we think, and
(19:13):
a couple more to go, really. But it's certainly not
looking too bad if we compare ourselves to across the ditch,
and we'll just watch and see what happens.
Speaker 3 (19:22):
You can read all about it on Rabobank's website, rabobank.co.nz.
Jen Corcoran, thanks for your time.
Speaker 6 (19:27):
Thanks, Jamie.
Speaker 1 (19:29):
The best of the country with Rabobank. Choose the bank
with a huge network of progressive farming clients. Rabobank.
Speaker 3 (19:37):
Always enjoy chewing the fat with this man, New Zealand
First Leader, former Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters. Winston, less
than two months out from the election, let's have a
look at the farmer vote. There's a couple of key
issues out there. The rural community is pretty split over Paris,
I put it to you, but pretty much united over
the pricing of agricultural emissions. Where do you sit on
(20:00):
all those?
Speaker 5 (20:01):
Well, the rural community is split because the very party
they've been supporting all these years were the ones that
went after Paris, both the National Party and ACT was
there at the time. and signed up to an agreement
which had these features. It's going to require us to
pay an enormous amount of money offshore if we didn't
meet certain targets, and that figures up to $ 22 billion,
and that's colossal when you think about it. And the
(20:23):
second thing is, though, there was a provider or proviso
in the agreement that food production would be exempt, excepting
back here the politicians had not argued for that, and
that's why the farmers are in such a conundrum at
this point in time when they should not be.
Speaker 3 (20:38):
Well, what do you say, and the likes of Todd McClay,
the Prime Minister, any number of people will tell you
that if we were to pull out of the Paris
Accord slash agreement, that we would end up cutting our
own throat in some of the more niche European markets.
They don't want a bar of it. They're looking for
an excuse to go elsewhere.
Speaker 5 (20:56):
Well, look, I'm just sick and tired of hearing, in
many cases, inexperience and lack of detail. They said the
same thing about the Union Free Trade deal. and they'll
never be able to prove it to the farmers because
they've left out completely when it comes to that deal,
when it comes to dairying for a start. But the
reality is that scaremongering is what they chiefly use as
a means of getting past their own incapacity to do
(21:20):
the job that they should be doing. Look, if 60%
of the emissions is coming from China, India, Russia, United States,
what good can we do in this circumstance? It's all
there plain as daylight in many other countries, I started
to understand that. And the longest serving Labour Prime Minister
of the UK, Tony Blair, came out recently and said
(21:41):
exactly what Winston Peters has been saying. That's a fact.
Some people are coming to grips with the facts. Others
are sticking to where they got themselves because of their
political naivety.
Speaker 3 (21:51):
So you won us out of Paris. You pretty much
united with your coalition partners over pricing ag emissions. Interesting
to see Labour came out. and said this week that
they wouldn't be pricing agricultural emissions. That is a big
policy U-turn from the days of He Waka Ekanawa, and
I think David Parker will be rolling in his political
(22:12):
grave at the thought of all this.
Speaker 5 (22:14):
All right, so Labour came out and said that. So
what did they mean by that? Because if they're going
to stand up for the Paris Agreement, which they are,
and so does National, and after all, Prime Minister Luxembourg
said it was a bottom line, then how are they
going to handle the situation where up to $ 22 billion
will be required to leave our economy to appraise ourselves
(22:35):
or get past our failures and go to some other economy?
Speaker 3 (22:39):
Yeah, but the Prime Minister said on this show yesterday
not a cent will go offshore.
Speaker 5 (22:43):
Oh, excuse me. I mean, look, where does it speak?
I've got a legal training. I'm not going to stand
back and listen to information which is not based on
the facts of the legislation and the statutory requirements that
we've entered into. No, I'm sorry. That is not the case.
Speaker 3 (23:00):
Can I just ask you a question? And this is
one that came in from a listener. Why does a
state bank, and I know you want to nationalise the BNZ,
make sense, yet Chloe's Pack and Soviet, as they're calling it, supermarket,
doesn't make sense? Why do minor parties, and you'll hate
me calling you a minor party, but why do minor
parties throw out harebrained policies that will never have a
(23:24):
chance of getting across the lines?
Speaker 5 (23:27):
Well, obviously, you were born yesterday. I was, and I
was born decades ago when we went out of the
country under two former great parties, Labour when they were
great and National when they were great, and started our
own bank called the BNZ to take on foreign competition,
to drive down unfair costs. It's exactly what's going on now.
So we started the BNZ, and when the Labour Party
(23:47):
sold one third of it, the National Party sold the
second two thirds off in October 1992. Six out of
10 banking clients in New Zealand belong to the BNZ.
That's the kind of treachery and traitorous behavior these politicians
are guilty of. And you're saying it's some extraordinary idea
to get back our own bank. Now, the second thing is,
the guy Stubbs from Simplicity recently, six years ago, said
(24:09):
this as well. We should be merging Kiwi Bank with BNZ.
and he put out the whole statement the way New
Zealand First did. And did anybody shout communism then? Did
anybody shout nationalisation then?
Speaker 4 (24:20):
No.
Speaker 5 (24:20):
Look, stop this nonsense. You should remember when we used
to have competitive bank rates, and we're being screwed now.
How come Ned Kelly of Banks in Australia earn far
more in a smaller market per capita than they do
in the biggest market of Australia? And the answer is
we're being ripped off, and people like you and the
National Party are letting that happen.
Speaker 3 (24:40):
Oh, it's all my fault. Hey, public meetings. Chippy got
100 or 100. Well, it is.
Speaker 5 (24:44):
Your fault if you give a claim to that sort
of nonsense.
Speaker 3 (24:48):
I'm duly scolded. Public meetings. Chippy got 100 or 150,
depend on who you believe, and a cat last night
at his sort of first public meeting. You wouldn't get
out of bed for that many people, Winston Peters.
Speaker 5 (25:01):
Well, that's not a meeting. I mean, this guy wants
to be the next prime minister. This guy's the next
prime minister. Hey, he's standing up after the COVID disgrace
had been on me. But that's why it's only getting
up to 100 or so long to these meetings because
nobody's interested anymore. And the mainstream media can do it.
They like to prop them up, but it's not going
to work in this campaign.
Speaker 3 (25:19):
How many do you get at your meetings?
Speaker 5 (25:22):
Well, we get hundreds and hundreds of people. We pack
the halls. I mean, our team knows there should never
be a spare seat at any meeting that we do
because people are out there interested. Our job is to
make sure, unlike the rest of them, we've been out
there on the road since March holding these meetings. We've
held between myself and Shane Jones scores of meetings around
the country. We've got a huge meeting coming up this Sunday,
(25:44):
for example, as well.
Speaker 3 (25:45):
Does anyone under 60 turn up?
Speaker 5 (25:50):
See, that's a kind of snide remark.
Speaker 3 (25:52):
No, it's just social commentary. Hey, I look at your meetings, Winston,
and it's a sea of grey.
Speaker 5 (25:59):
Oh, look, at our convention, we had 30 tables of
young people's. That's how many people turn up who are
young on our side. The whole sea change is happening. But,
of course, you keep on wanting to repeat the same
old dismissive comments. Well, let me tell you this. I've
got news for you, some sceptical people, and it's all bad.
Speaker 3 (26:22):
Can I just finish on 9-11? It'll be our time Saturday.
Trump is telling terrible porkies about that, but I just
want to reflect with you, because you've been about for
a long time. Where were you? What were you doing
when the world changed forever?
Speaker 5 (26:39):
I was, again, early in the morning. I can recall,
I think Ron Mark called me up to say, look,
this has happened, because we were wondering what the news
was all about, and then Ron called up to say, look,
it's got these sort of details and features about it.
It looks like a terrorist attack, and sure enough, it was.
It was so unbelievable that it could actually happen. And
that's a long, long time ago, but I can recall
(27:02):
what I was... It's early in the morning we found
this out. Shocking, actually, when I think about it.
Speaker 3 (27:08):
It's probably the biggest event, Winston, post-World War II, and
I know that you were born just before the end
of World War II. Would it be the single biggest
event in our lifetimes?
Speaker 5 (27:19):
Of that nature, yeah. There's been other dramatic things as well,
you know, very sad cases where we've overlooked the fact
of it all, but In terms of Western society, yeah,
it was a pretty dramatic event. I wouldn't say the
biggest one, but what was very clear the moment you
heard the news was this world will not be the
same again because it'll have these features. There'll be costs
(27:40):
for terrorism detection, which will be massively passed on to
everybody that's traveling, everybody that's moving in any sense of
transport internationally. And it has had a huge cost with
no productivity as a result. We don't really understand how
damaging it's been.
Speaker 3 (28:00):
Yes, airports have never been the same since. Osama bin
Laden has a lot to answer for. Winston Peters, thanks
for some of your time today on The Country as
we count down less than two months to go to
the election.
Speaker 5 (28:11):
Thank you very much. And don't forget to tell your
farming community to hang on to Health Science Way.
Speaker 3 (28:18):
See you later. Bye bye.
Speaker 1 (28:20):
The best of the country with Rabobank. The bank with
local agribanking experts passionate about the future of rural communities. Rabobank.
Speaker 3 (28:42):
Good morning, New Zealand. I'm Jamie Mackay. You are listening
to the best of the country here on Newstalk ZB.
brought to you by Rabobank. We're growing a better New
Zealand together as we reflect on 9-11 US time, 25
years ago. Can you believe it? Up next, Jane Smith,
North Otago farmer, bit of a favourite here on the country.
(29:04):
You never die wondering what she's thinking. Award-winning environmentalist, her
and her hubby Blair won the Balance Farm Environment Awards,
so she not only talks the talk, she walks the walk.
She had some interesting comments to make about the Paris agreement, accord,
and had a nice dig in the ribs of the
(29:25):
Opportunities Party. So Jane Smith to wrap the best of
the country. Rabobank's latest Agribusiness Monthly, as you heard earlier
in the show, was out earlier this week. Jen Corcoran
talked about it. If you want to read it in
more depth, just go to the Rabobank website and you'll
find it under the Knowledge and Networks tab. How good,
(29:50):
how good is this weekend going to be? The WAS tonight,
the All Blacks tomorrow, US Tennis Open. It is an
absolute feast if you're a couch fan. Potato, that's the
best of the country.
Speaker 1 (30:03):
Jane Smith is a North Otago farmer, former winner of
the Balance Farm Environment Awards. Jane, what did you make
of my commentary to Winston that the two key issues,
or two of the key issues out there in rural
New Zealand are.
Speaker 3 (30:27):
One, Paris, and I reckon the rural community is pretty
split over that. And the other one is pricing ag emissions.
And everyone seems to be in agreement with that. We
don't want to do it.
Speaker 7 (30:38):
Good afternoon, Jamie. And firstly, Jamie, welcome back. I didn't
know if you were actually sick or whether you'd been
kidnapped by the Greens as part of their policy to
cleanse the world of white middle-aged men. But certainly pleased
to hear you back on the airwaves. But yeah, I
absolutely agree. And it was really refreshing to hear Mark
de la Tour speak. from Open Country a couple of
(30:59):
days ago in terms of his reality or the reality around,
you know, they're playing in the same product, same markets.
He hadn't been swept up in the, you know, self-imposed
righteousness of emissions assumptions and subsequently punishing farmers for an
issue that is actually a non-issue if you look at
it And I guess Silver Fern Farms have, of course,
(31:22):
been chasing the methane apologist road for quite some time now,
which is such a shame because they do some excellent marketing,
but it's certainly taken it a bridge too far. And
if we really look at this, we're simply adding costs
onto a product that's beyond the premium that people are
willing to pay for something that we've already got balanced out.
(31:42):
And the reality is that we haven't actually managed bothered
as a country to genuinely market the other attractive aspects
of our pastoral production, i.e. GE-free, our hills are producing
free-range protein where no plant-based diet would ever be able
to grow. So the real cost of staying in Paris
when everyone's just too scared to pull out of a
meaningless piece of paper, Jamie.
Speaker 3 (32:03):
But what are the consequences of the Paris Agreement, Accord,
whatever you want to call it? Because As Winston pointed out,
food was meant to be exempt. And if we don't
meet our emissions targets, what happens to us? Do we
just get a slap over the wrist with a wet
bus ticket? Exactly, Jamie.
Speaker 7 (32:24):
And again, adhering to a very expensive piece of paper.
And let's put some, you know, some figures around this,
you know, in terms of what we're trying to be
meeting in terms of net zero, agri zero, carbon zero,
hero zero, and the Paris peril is, you know, being
modelled to be over sort of anywhere between 200,000 billion
and a trillion dollars for our country if you scope
that right out. For what, Jamie? And this is the thing,
(32:47):
we should be putting that money into infrastructure, et cetera,
and some of our real basics in our country in
terms of health care and water storage and education. And
I guess this is the thing, like Again, as a country,
we need to actually be focused on our attributes rather
than a fallacy that we're going to change anything in
terms of the climate. That is already changing and will
(33:09):
always change in perpetuity. So what can we do to
actually be a more robust country? And it's really interesting.
We seem to be sort of self-sabotaging. And I think
the most embarrassing reality is we've done all of this
to ourselves. We've created our own hoops. And there's something
really confronting about not being able to blame someone else
for burdening our country with a disturbing suite of self-imposed
(33:32):
penalties that everybody knows will not make one iota of
difference to how the climate may change over time. And so, again,
and I agree with the tradies that when they say
that our reputation is essential to our trade relationships, But
this could have all been put to bed when we
can actually, you know, you can say a high proportion
of our country's emissions are biogenic methane, but at the
(33:55):
same time that can be completely put to bed by
explaining the methane cycle and stable methane is not contributing
to any additional warming.
Speaker 5 (34:04):
And that is it.
Speaker 7 (34:05):
So that is a massive cost.
Speaker 3 (34:07):
Absolutely agree with you. Ruminants aren't the problem. Man-burning fossil
fuel is the problem. Hey, do you know what keeps
me up at night, other than influencer A Jane Smith?
is the prospect of a centre-left government for farming and
for small business. I watched that Q & A rural
leaders debate and I thought, heaven help us if the centre-left,
(34:28):
and I'm talking about Joe Luxton who said nothing, Daniel
Ebb who frightened me, and Steve Abel who showed his
true colours. If that's what we're up against, last one
to leave, turn the lights out.
Speaker 7 (34:40):
I know, Jamie, and I thought I would have to be,
I did actually hesitate to watch that because I thought
I'd have to be heavily sedated before doing so. And,
you know, they really did dance around the key issues.
I would have said rural health care and freshwater ownership
with the iwi lining up to own the South Island,
if not all freshwater. You know, none of that was
put forward. But probably the most disturbing narrative I heard
(35:02):
was the opportunity cost party, and you just mentioned that.
Daniel then and his vision for farming. So he did
mention in a Chloe Swarbrick type scenario that he would
help us transition from our current farming practices. And of course,
he wants farm values to fall between 10 and 15 percent.
(35:22):
because apparently we're all farming for capital gain, he said.
And certainly one way to decrease our rates, thank you, Daniel,
would be that. But his vision was sort of a
cross between Gloria Vale and the Jetsons. And he said
each farm would be farming less livestock, supporting two or
three or four families in a sort of socialist utopia
where one family would be paid to plant native trees.
(35:45):
I'm not sure by who. One would be doing a
project on farm connected to education. Sounds lovely. And one
might be doing some country calendar type of version of
farm work. And I'm not sure who he thought was
going to be paying... to keep our roads, schools and
hospitals going, let alone the universal beneficiary concept. And I
(36:05):
think these people tend to forget that a 1% drop
in GDP equals at least $ 500 million less tax collected.
And this is a scary thing. It's really, in terms
of economic... insanity, all of these things lead into this.
So yeah, it was an interesting sort of entertaining but
also equally concerning Q & A. I will say about
(36:27):
Steve Abel, he's actually a reasonable, rational type of person.
And I guess when you're surrounded by sort of three
or four crazy Green Party female rainbow warriors, it is
probably easier to look pretty rational. But he does actually...
That did come across as very good, but certainly not
a reason to be putting the Greens into, and to
be there with top and their socialist utopia, Jamie. That
(36:51):
would absolutely keep, should keep every New Zealander awake at night.
Speaker 3 (36:54):
Bring back James Shaw, I say. Jane Smith, thanks for
your time today on The Country.
Speaker 7 (36:58):
Thanks, Jamie.
Speaker 3 (37:14):
Jane smith rapping the best of the country good morning
my name's jamie mckay the show's brought to you by
rabobank we're growing a better new zealand together was tonight
all blacks tomorrow morning great viewing time as for me
i'm based in dunedin i'm driving down to Invercargill today,
my great honour and privilege to emcee the reunion of
(37:37):
the Southland rugby teams that played in the 1970s. Some
great players in there. Six All Blacks, Kenny Stewart, Bob Barber,
Brian McKechnie, double All Black, Lester Rutledge, what a champion,
Stephen Pokeri, gifted, and Ash McGregor. So that's my... Saturday
night filled. I've got to watch the wires as well.
(37:58):
It is 9-11 American time. I'm going to leave you
with one of my favourite 9-11 songs. This is the
Eagles and their tribute to a day that we will
never forget.
Speaker 2 (38:10):
Don't let there be a home in the world tomorrow
Oh they tell me there's a place over yonder Running
through the burning sand Until we learn to love one
(38:34):
another We will never reach the promised land There's a
hole in the world tonight There's a cloud of fear
and sorrow There's a hope in the world tonight. Don't
(38:58):
let there be a hope in the world tomorrow. There's
a hope. They say that anger is just love. It's
a bondage. There's a hope. They say that love is
just a state of mind. There's a hope. But all
(39:19):
this fighting over who will be ignored. Peace of your heart.
There's a hole in the world tonight There's a cloud
of fear and sorrow There's a hole in the world
(39:43):
tonight Don't let there be a hole in the world
tomorrow There's a hole in the world tonight There's a
cloud of fear inside of me There's a hole in
(40:06):
the world tonight Don't let there be a hole in
the world tonight There's a There's a hope in the
(40:29):
world tonight Don't let there be a hole in the
world tonight There's a hope in the world tonight There's
a cloud without a soul There's a hope in the
(40:52):
world tonight There's a hope tonight Little bit of there's
a cloud
The best of the country with Robobank. Choose the bank
with 120 years global agribusiness experience. Grow with Robobank.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Harry got up Dressed all in black.
Speaker 3 (00:16):
Went down to the station.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
And he never came back They found his clothing Scattered
somewhere down the track.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Good morning, New Zealand. Welcome to the best of the country.
I'm Jamie Mackay. Good to be back on the show.
After being laid low for three weeks, believe it or not,
I've only had about three sick days in 30 years.
By influenza A, I pity anyone out there who's suffered
the same fate. Never mind, I'm back up and running,
(00:55):
and we've got a great show lined up for you today.
This was my first week back on the tools after,
as I said, three weeks off. By the way, Don Henley,
New York Minute, unofficial anthem for 9-11. Today is 9-11,
American time. We're going to kick off the show with
Damien O'Connor, a man who I often clash swords with.
(01:17):
But I had to congratulate him earlier in the week
on Labour's decision to finally come out with some ag policy.
As their leader Chris Hipkins said, they will not campaign
on pricing agricultural emissions. And Damien and I debated, argued,
whatever you want, who was to blame for carbon farming
gobbling up some of our most productive pastoral and food
(01:40):
producing land. I'm also going to replay an interview I
did Did midweek with Jen Corcoran, Rabobank's senior ag analyst,
having a look at the September Agribusiness Monthly Report. Yep,
Rabobank do one of these each month. Now in September,
the commodity outlooks remain pretty positive, but the problem is
(02:02):
the other side of the ledger, the increase in the
price of farm inputs. Winston Peters, good to catch up
with him again, New Zealand first leader. former Deputy Prime Minister,
commenting on the two big issues, or two of the
big issues, facing farming as we head into the election,
the Paris Accord, should we be in or out, and
(02:22):
the pricing of agricultural emissions. He also denied his proposed
nationalisation of the BNZ was a harebrained policy. He barked
back at that one, plus he reflected on 9-11 25
years on. We're going to wrap it with Jane Smith,
North Otago farmer, award-winning environmentalist, singing the praises of Open
(02:43):
Country Dairy's Mark Delatorre and what he had to say
about Paris. Plus she had a good one-liner about the
Opportunities Party or the Opportunities Party ag policy. She said
it was a cross between Gloria Vale and the Jets.
It's a great turn of phrase from Jane Smith. It's
all on the best of the country on 9-11 US
(03:04):
time and it's brought to you by Rabobank.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
The best of the country with Rabobank. Choose the bank
with a huge network of progressive farming clients. Rabobank.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
Second day back on the tools here on the country,
and I was really looking forward to kicking off the
show today with an argument, but bugger it. I find
myself agreeing with the Labour Party. Here's their trade spokesperson,
Damien O'Connor. Good to see Chippy come out this morning,
Damien O'Connor, and say Labour would not campaign on pricing
(03:44):
agricultural emissions. Finally, the pennies dropped for your lot.
Speaker 4 (03:49):
Look, you know, you're agreeing with me, Jan, and lucky
I'm sitting down, I would have fallen over. Look, the
ETS has been a bit of an nightmare. It was,
of course, the farmers' preferred option because we'd originally proposed
like a simple carbon tax that could have reinvested money
back into agriculture. Nonetheless, we've moved on. We've been through
a complex set of changes. The national government allowed in
(04:14):
foreign cheap credits, mucked up the market. We came back
in and we tried to, I guess, to recredit the market.
And it's been a bit of a muddle. And of course,
the forestry sector had always lobbied to get their credits
in as offsets. And That has meant that the price
from ETS hasn't changed behaviour. It means that we've had
(04:35):
more trees in the ground. Shane Jones with his billion
trees didn't help when we were negotiating in 2017. Nonetheless,
we need to make these changes.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
Yeah, but you're rewriting history here, Damien O'Connor, because... Yes,
you are. This all came about with Jacinda and Shane
and their billion trees policy.
Speaker 4 (04:56):
No, look, we were having forest planted for carbon. The
fact that the carbon credits weren't worth anything because National
had let in the foreign cheap credits meant that the
market slumped, but we'd actually had forestry generating carbon credits
since the set-up of the ETS. It's just that it
(05:17):
did take off, yes. Shane Jones had.
Speaker 5 (05:20):
Left the door open.
Speaker 4 (05:21):
Actually, the farmers could only invest in production forests, not
for carbon, but it was a bit of both.
Speaker 5 (05:26):
So, yes, I accept that we had.
Speaker 4 (05:29):
A massive, you know, afforestation still below the levels that
we had in 1999. But nonetheless, there's a lot of
good dry stock farming opportunities land gone into trees when
it shouldn't. There's probably a bit of dairy land or
dry stock farming that's gone into dairy that shouldn't as well.
So there's a bit of muddled land use, and I
(05:50):
think we're going to work through that.
Speaker 3 (05:51):
Yeah, okay, Damien, but I don't want to re-litigate history
myself here, but the difference between 1999 and what we
faced in the past half a dozen years or so
was that back in 99, we were planting trees, yes,
but we weren't planting high-quality, pastoral land and trees?
Speaker 5 (06:10):
No, no.
Speaker 4 (06:11):
There are some good farms that have gone to trees.
I accept that that is wrong. We put in government,
put millions of dollars to boost the wool industry. That's
starting to work now. We need dual income from those
dry stock farming operations. And, you know, we've got good
prices for beef at the moment. So it's kind of
moving in the right direction for dry stock. But the
absence of any real income meant that people just sold
(06:33):
out for trees.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
Now, finally, as I said, Labour has come out with
some policy. Now, why didn't you do your poor old
ag spokesperson, Jo Luxton, a bit of a favour and
let her announce some of this ag policy on the
Q & A rural debate? She was hung out to dry.
They were laughing at her.
Speaker 4 (06:51):
Oh, that's terrible. Look, it was a bit awkward for
Jo because there is some good policy in the pipeline.
Speaker 3 (06:56):
Yeah, but Damien, we're only two months away from an election.
For God's sake, get your policy out there.
Speaker 4 (07:02):
Oh, look, Jamie, I'm not in charge. You know, sometimes
I wish I was. Look, we've got a programme and
it is important that people get to see the policy
in a way that's not indigestible. Dump it all out
at once and no one will know what's out there.
So we will have some good policy coming out. It
is for a better New Zealand. We can't afford to have...
this current government carry on for another three years. It
(07:23):
would just be disastrous. Costs are going out of control.
We've got an economy that take away what's happening in
the rural sectors, and it's slumped.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
Absolutely. New Zealand's almost totally dependent on the primary sector. Now,
having watched the Q & A debate, and I think
of Steve Abel, Daniel Ebb, and who was the other one?
Poor old Joe. Heaven help us if your lot got
in charge. It would be the death of farming.
Speaker 4 (07:51):
Oh, get over it.
Speaker 3 (07:52):
No, I'm not getting over it. What did you make
of what Steve Abel was talking about?
Speaker 4 (07:56):
Steve Abel was pointing out some very real issues that
are facing us into the future. There are some big
issues around nitrates in Canterbury and Southland and in the Waikato.
And if we don't address those, then the dairy industry
in particular is going to hit a brick wall, you know,
in about five to 10 years, if not sooner. And
we have to make sure that we have truly sustainable,
(08:18):
because people are investing billions of dollars, truly sustainable systems.
Speaker 3 (08:23):
Also this morning, Chippy came out and said Labour is
fully committed to the Paris Agreement and will put New
Zealand on course to meet its targets. How are you
going to do that without pricing agricultural emissions?
Speaker 4 (08:38):
Look, we're going to have to incentivise, and some of
that work is going on at the moment. We put
a couple of hundred million dollars into AgriZero as a
government when we were in, and some of that technology
is coming through. It's going to have to come through
pretty quickly. Farmers are going to have to take it
up if we are to reduce our ag emissions. But
(08:58):
across the rest of the economy, we've got to see
faster progress as well. So it is a big challenge
for us. But if we were to walk away from Paris,
people would just say, well, stuff you. You're not doing
your bit. We're burning in Europe. We've got these massive issues.
It's not just Nepal, but you wait and see some
of the other glaciers around the world. If we're not
doing our bit, we will be shut.
Speaker 5 (09:20):
Out of markets.
Speaker 3 (09:21):
Okay, a final comment from Chippy, and I'm quoting him here.
He said, some large exporters were driving... this changed themselves, i.e.
emissions reductions, noting that Fonterra and Silver Fern Farms were
trying to reduce emissions. But the report goes on to
say these firms are struggling to meet their targets. Fonterra
(09:41):
is targeting a 30% reduction in emissions intensity by 2030
compared to 2018, yet as of 2025 had achieved just 3.8%
of a reduction. Yep.
Speaker 4 (09:56):
We're just going to have to try harder, aren't we?
We are all going to have to do this.
Speaker 5 (10:00):
That.
Speaker 4 (10:00):
Otherwise, you know, if we talk about future generations and farming,
it's going to be a very, very sad place for
them to be. Not just the conditions that they face
farming because of the events like Gabriel, but also the
difficulty getting into markets where people will be saying, you've
got to help us reduce the impact of global warming.
(10:21):
And if you're not trying, then we'll go somewhere else.
Speaker 3 (10:24):
Hey, Damien, your ag policy sounds a bit like my
Secondary school reports must try harder.
Speaker 5 (10:31):
Well, I.
Speaker 4 (10:33):
Think it's upon all of us to try harder. And
we can't reverse things overnight. We can't make massive changes
or revolution overnight, but we're going to have to move
in the right direction. And the current government at the
moment is moving in the wrong direction for the wrong reasons.
Speaker 3 (10:48):
Damien O'Connor, Labour's candidate for Waitaki. That's going to be
a really interesting race. Thanks for your time on The Country.
Speaker 5 (10:56):
You're welcome.
Speaker 4 (10:56):
Thanks, Jamie.
Speaker 1 (10:58):
The best of the country with Rabobank. The bank with
local agribanking experts passionate about the future of rural communities. Rabobank.
Speaker 3 (11:12):
Good morning, New Zealand. Welcome back to the best of
the country. The show's brought to you by Rabobank. Each
and every Saturday morning here on Newstalk ZB between six
and seven. I'm Jamie Mackay. Good to be back on
the tools after a bit of an extended break. layoff
with influenza A. Stay away from that. Trust me on
that one. Up next, Jen Corcoran, Rabobank's senior ag analyst,
(11:35):
having a look at the September Agri Business Monthly, good
and bad news and that. Winston Peters, New Zealand first leader,
former deputy prime minister, foreign minister, of course, commenting on
a couple of the really big issues facing farming as
we head into the election, the Paris Accord and the
pricing of agricultural emissions. We're going to wrap it with
Jane Smith. who had some great one-liners on the show on,
(12:02):
when was it, Wednesday or Thursday? It's been a bit
of a blur this week in some ways. So much happening.
So looking forward to the WAS tonight and the All
Blacks tomorrow. Hey, but before I forget, Rabobank is proud
to be the principal sponsor of the Red Meat Sector Conference,
which will take place in Wellington later this month. The
conference offers a valuable opportunity to share ideas, challenge thinking,
(12:25):
and explore practical solutions to the opportunities and challenges facing
the red meat sector in the years ahead. To find
out more, visit the conference website, redmeatsector.co.nz. Up next, Jan Corcoran.
(12:52):
She is a Senior Animal Protein Analyst for Rabobank. Everyone's
got a title there. Her name is Jen Corcoran. Jen,
monthly you guys at Rabobank come out with your Agribusiness
Monthly Report. And if I look at it, and I
look at the left and the right, on the left-hand
side is the commodity prices. They're all, or outlooks, they're
all pretty good. Dairy, beef, sheep, meat, pretty good. I
(13:14):
look on the right-hand side of the ledger, farm inputs,
interest and exchange rates, oil and freight, not so flash.
Speaker 6 (13:22):
Good afternoon, Jamie. Yes, that's a great summary for this
first monthly of the spring, September. And, you know, we've
titled it A Spring in the Steppe, which probably speaks
more to that commodity side of things. You know, things
are really looking quite good out there. And, you know,
we've got record highs across parts of the red meat
sector still right now. But as you say, there's a
(13:44):
lot of watching points around that farm input side. And
it's fair to say things aren't very settled in the
Middle East yet. And, you know, the dollar is slightly
stronger than it's been as well. So there's a few
things playing into the cost side of businesses, I think,
that we need to really be keeping an eye on
and talking about as we go into the busy seasons.
Speaker 3 (14:02):
OK, let's start with the income side of the ledger.
And I want to start with dairying. I was a
bit worried that that was cooling its jets a bit,
but we've had a couple of positive GDT auctions. So
is it steadying the ship there?
Speaker 6 (14:15):
Yeah, things are steadying out, Jamie, and we expect that
to perhaps continue as milk supply growth globally starts to
slow down, right? So that's what's really driving things. We've
also got really good demand for the powders happening. There's
still a lot of that butterfat and cheese basically supply
out there. So that's sort of holding things back in
(14:36):
that space. But as the season goes on, You know,
the view of rubber research is that we've got good
upside potentially there, so things are looking quite good from
a potential farm gate milk price perspective in New Zealand.
Speaker 3 (14:48):
And if we look at all of our commodities, in
some ways beef has been the star of the stable
of what's happening in the U.S. despite the tariffs. But
you're cautioning a bit of a warning here regarding that
trim price for beef, the stuff they want to put
into their hamburgers in the U.S., Why is that happening?
I thought there was just an out-and-out shortage.
Speaker 6 (15:10):
Yeah, well, there really is an out-and-out shortage of basically
domestic trim in the United States, and that is not
expected to go away anytime soon. What's changing around at
the moment a little bit is that the US has
opened up the other country's quota tariff and basically reduced
it to zero tariff. or they say they're going to,
for about 300,000 tonnes of beef. Now, what that means, Jamie,
(15:31):
is that doesn't affect us really at all in terms
of our access into the United States market. But Brazil,
who's looking for a home for a lot of beef
because they can't actually see much into China right now
for other different China quota reasons, means that they may
start to pop more beef up into that market. And
what we're seeing is that US imported trim prices softening
(15:52):
quite kind of rapidly.
Speaker 7 (15:53):
At the moment.
Speaker 6 (15:54):
However, let's remember, it's at a very all-time high. And,
you know, our prices are also, because of that, very,
very strong. So we're coming down from a higher base
because there potentially might be a little bit more product
for the next 90-odd days going into the United States.
But again, remembering New Zealand's got great relationships into the
US for that trim. We've got good, consistent, compliant, safe product.
(16:17):
And so I think, you know, we're not necessarily competing
all the time with some of these other countries that
might be able to flood a market on a volume
perspective if those relationships don't perhaps exist in other countries.
So we'll just keep an eye on it. That might
be why we're seeing a little bit of softening in,
you know... Farmgate prices for bull and cow-cow at the moment,
but it is coming down off a very, very strong position.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
There's a lot of sheep farmers out there at the
moment on the lambing beat, listening hopefully to this show.
Have you got words of encouragement for them? What are
the prospects for lamb like, Jen Corcoran?
Speaker 6 (16:50):
Yeah, great question, Jamie, and we talked about this, you know,
this time last year, right, because things were really picking
up and, you know, we're sitting steady.
Speaker 5 (16:57):
Above $ 12.
Speaker 6 (16:58):
At the moment, obviously in a very low supply period
before these lambs grow bigger and start to hit the
market before Christmas. So the big question will really be
when that supply turns on and to what degree in
New Zealand because the export situation around that average export
value hit a new record in July at over $ 17,
which is a crazy amount of money because you're low
(17:19):
on average. Now, the reason for that is that we've
got a good diverse range of markets for our lamb.
They're willing to pay for it. There's a global shortage
of sheep as well, thanks to Aussie, and the northern
hemisphere in general around the UK and Europe. So good
demand broadly for sheep meat. Mutton prices are also doing
great things. I'm reasonably positive for the outlook for this season.
(17:41):
I think the big question will be how many lambs
hit the New Zealand processing sector at once. if that
even happens at all, right, and that's kind of more
around the weather. So I think we're sitting in a
good spot. We're above $ 12. It's likely to soften through
that peak, but I can't see any situation where we
would expect it to fall off a cliff in any direction.
Speaker 3 (18:02):
Right, let's quickly finish on, because we've touched on farm inputs. Obviously,
fertiliser and fuel are a real issue off the back
of what's happening in the Middle East, but I want
to just finish on interest rates and the exchange rate. Now,
we're currently at about 59 US cents. You guys at
Rabobank are expecting us to get to 61 in the
(18:22):
next 12 months. I guess we can live with that.
The interesting one is interest rates. Ben Pickton, your guy
in Sydney, chief economist effectively, is saying another couple of
rises to 3.25%. And do you know what I think, Jen?
I think we can live with that because if I
look across the Tasman to where Ben's making these predictions,
The Aussies are currently at 4.35%, with future rises in prospect.
(18:48):
So maybe we're not doing that bad after all.
Speaker 6 (18:52):
No, we're not doing too bad. And I think the
rubber research view here that Ben talks about is that
the New Zealand economy is recovering. And I think we're
all kind of aware of that now. There's just that
little bit of inflation management that isn't quite finished. And
so what we're expecting because of all of that, and
it's been well kind of versed this year is that
there is still more rises to come, we think, and
(19:13):
a couple more to go, really. But it's certainly not
looking too bad if we compare ourselves to across the ditch,
and we'll just watch and see what happens.
Speaker 3 (19:22):
You can read all about it on Rabobank's website, rabobank.co.nz.
Jen Corcoran, thanks for your time.
Speaker 6 (19:27):
Thanks, Jamie.
Speaker 1 (19:29):
The best of the country with Rabobank. Choose the bank
with a huge network of progressive farming clients. Rabobank.
Speaker 3 (19:37):
Always enjoy chewing the fat with this man, New Zealand
First Leader, former Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters. Winston, less
than two months out from the election, let's have a
look at the farmer vote. There's a couple of key
issues out there. The rural community is pretty split over Paris,
I put it to you, but pretty much united over
the pricing of agricultural emissions. Where do you sit on
(20:00):
all those?
Speaker 5 (20:01):
Well, the rural community is split because the very party
they've been supporting all these years were the ones that
went after Paris, both the National Party and ACT was
there at the time. and signed up to an agreement
which had these features. It's going to require us to
pay an enormous amount of money offshore if we didn't
meet certain targets, and that figures up to $ 22 billion,
and that's colossal when you think about it. And the
(20:23):
second thing is, though, there was a provider or proviso
in the agreement that food production would be exempt, excepting
back here the politicians had not argued for that, and
that's why the farmers are in such a conundrum at
this point in time when they should not be.
Speaker 3 (20:38):
Well, what do you say, and the likes of Todd McClay,
the Prime Minister, any number of people will tell you
that if we were to pull out of the Paris
Accord slash agreement, that we would end up cutting our
own throat in some of the more niche European markets.
They don't want a bar of it. They're looking for
an excuse to go elsewhere.
Speaker 5 (20:56):
Well, look, I'm just sick and tired of hearing, in
many cases, inexperience and lack of detail. They said the
same thing about the Union Free Trade deal. and they'll
never be able to prove it to the farmers because
they've left out completely when it comes to that deal,
when it comes to dairying for a start. But the
reality is that scaremongering is what they chiefly use as
a means of getting past their own incapacity to do
(21:20):
the job that they should be doing. Look, if 60%
of the emissions is coming from China, India, Russia, United States,
what good can we do in this circumstance? It's all
there plain as daylight in many other countries, I started
to understand that. And the longest serving Labour Prime Minister
of the UK, Tony Blair, came out recently and said
(21:41):
exactly what Winston Peters has been saying. That's a fact.
Some people are coming to grips with the facts. Others
are sticking to where they got themselves because of their
political naivety.
Speaker 3 (21:51):
So you won us out of Paris. You pretty much
united with your coalition partners over pricing ag emissions. Interesting
to see Labour came out. and said this week that
they wouldn't be pricing agricultural emissions. That is a big
policy U-turn from the days of He Waka Ekanawa, and
I think David Parker will be rolling in his political
(22:12):
grave at the thought of all this.
Speaker 5 (22:14):
All right, so Labour came out and said that. So
what did they mean by that? Because if they're going
to stand up for the Paris Agreement, which they are,
and so does National, and after all, Prime Minister Luxembourg
said it was a bottom line, then how are they
going to handle the situation where up to $ 22 billion
will be required to leave our economy to appraise ourselves
(22:35):
or get past our failures and go to some other economy?
Speaker 3 (22:39):
Yeah, but the Prime Minister said on this show yesterday
not a cent will go offshore.
Speaker 5 (22:43):
Oh, excuse me. I mean, look, where does it speak?
I've got a legal training. I'm not going to stand
back and listen to information which is not based on
the facts of the legislation and the statutory requirements that
we've entered into. No, I'm sorry. That is not the case.
Speaker 3 (23:00):
Can I just ask you a question? And this is
one that came in from a listener. Why does a
state bank, and I know you want to nationalise the BNZ,
make sense, yet Chloe's Pack and Soviet, as they're calling it, supermarket,
doesn't make sense? Why do minor parties, and you'll hate
me calling you a minor party, but why do minor
parties throw out harebrained policies that will never have a
(23:24):
chance of getting across the lines?
Speaker 5 (23:27):
Well, obviously, you were born yesterday. I was, and I
was born decades ago when we went out of the
country under two former great parties, Labour when they were
great and National when they were great, and started our
own bank called the BNZ to take on foreign competition,
to drive down unfair costs. It's exactly what's going on now.
So we started the BNZ, and when the Labour Party
(23:47):
sold one third of it, the National Party sold the
second two thirds off in October 1992. Six out of
10 banking clients in New Zealand belong to the BNZ.
That's the kind of treachery and traitorous behavior these politicians
are guilty of. And you're saying it's some extraordinary idea
to get back our own bank. Now, the second thing is,
the guy Stubbs from Simplicity recently, six years ago, said
(24:09):
this as well. We should be merging Kiwi Bank with BNZ.
and he put out the whole statement the way New
Zealand First did. And did anybody shout communism then? Did
anybody shout nationalisation then?
Speaker 4 (24:20):
No.
Speaker 5 (24:20):
Look, stop this nonsense. You should remember when we used
to have competitive bank rates, and we're being screwed now.
How come Ned Kelly of Banks in Australia earn far
more in a smaller market per capita than they do
in the biggest market of Australia? And the answer is
we're being ripped off, and people like you and the
National Party are letting that happen.
Speaker 3 (24:40):
Oh, it's all my fault. Hey, public meetings. Chippy got
100 or 100. Well, it is.
Speaker 5 (24:44):
Your fault if you give a claim to that sort
of nonsense.
Speaker 3 (24:48):
I'm duly scolded. Public meetings. Chippy got 100 or 150,
depend on who you believe, and a cat last night
at his sort of first public meeting. You wouldn't get
out of bed for that many people, Winston Peters.
Speaker 5 (25:01):
Well, that's not a meeting. I mean, this guy wants
to be the next prime minister. This guy's the next
prime minister. Hey, he's standing up after the COVID disgrace
had been on me. But that's why it's only getting
up to 100 or so long to these meetings because
nobody's interested anymore. And the mainstream media can do it.
They like to prop them up, but it's not going
to work in this campaign.
Speaker 3 (25:19):
How many do you get at your meetings?
Speaker 5 (25:22):
Well, we get hundreds and hundreds of people. We pack
the halls. I mean, our team knows there should never
be a spare seat at any meeting that we do
because people are out there interested. Our job is to
make sure, unlike the rest of them, we've been out
there on the road since March holding these meetings. We've
held between myself and Shane Jones scores of meetings around
the country. We've got a huge meeting coming up this Sunday,
(25:44):
for example, as well.
Speaker 3 (25:45):
Does anyone under 60 turn up?
Speaker 5 (25:50):
See, that's a kind of snide remark.
Speaker 3 (25:52):
No, it's just social commentary. Hey, I look at your meetings, Winston,
and it's a sea of grey.
Speaker 5 (25:59):
Oh, look, at our convention, we had 30 tables of
young people's. That's how many people turn up who are
young on our side. The whole sea change is happening. But,
of course, you keep on wanting to repeat the same
old dismissive comments. Well, let me tell you this. I've
got news for you, some sceptical people, and it's all bad.
Speaker 3 (26:22):
Can I just finish on 9-11? It'll be our time Saturday.
Trump is telling terrible porkies about that, but I just
want to reflect with you, because you've been about for
a long time. Where were you? What were you doing
when the world changed forever?
Speaker 5 (26:39):
I was, again, early in the morning. I can recall,
I think Ron Mark called me up to say, look,
this has happened, because we were wondering what the news
was all about, and then Ron called up to say, look,
it's got these sort of details and features about it.
It looks like a terrorist attack, and sure enough, it was.
It was so unbelievable that it could actually happen. And
that's a long, long time ago, but I can recall
(27:02):
what I was... It's early in the morning we found
this out. Shocking, actually, when I think about it.
Speaker 3 (27:08):
It's probably the biggest event, Winston, post-World War II, and
I know that you were born just before the end
of World War II. Would it be the single biggest
event in our lifetimes?
Speaker 5 (27:19):
Of that nature, yeah. There's been other dramatic things as well,
you know, very sad cases where we've overlooked the fact
of it all, but In terms of Western society, yeah,
it was a pretty dramatic event. I wouldn't say the
biggest one, but what was very clear the moment you
heard the news was this world will not be the
same again because it'll have these features. There'll be costs
(27:40):
for terrorism detection, which will be massively passed on to
everybody that's traveling, everybody that's moving in any sense of
transport internationally. And it has had a huge cost with
no productivity as a result. We don't really understand how
damaging it's been.
Speaker 3 (28:00):
Yes, airports have never been the same since. Osama bin
Laden has a lot to answer for. Winston Peters, thanks
for some of your time today on The Country as
we count down less than two months to go to
the election.
Speaker 5 (28:11):
Thank you very much. And don't forget to tell your
farming community to hang on to Health Science Way.
Speaker 3 (28:18):
See you later. Bye bye.
Speaker 1 (28:20):
The best of the country with Rabobank. The bank with
local agribanking experts passionate about the future of rural communities. Rabobank.
Speaker 3 (28:42):
Good morning, New Zealand. I'm Jamie Mackay. You are listening
to the best of the country here on Newstalk ZB.
brought to you by Rabobank. We're growing a better New
Zealand together as we reflect on 9-11 US time, 25
years ago. Can you believe it? Up next, Jane Smith,
North Otago farmer, bit of a favourite here on the country.
(29:04):
You never die wondering what she's thinking. Award-winning environmentalist, her
and her hubby Blair won the Balance Farm Environment Awards,
so she not only talks the talk, she walks the walk.
She had some interesting comments to make about the Paris agreement, accord,
and had a nice dig in the ribs of the
(29:25):
Opportunities Party. So Jane Smith to wrap the best of
the country. Rabobank's latest Agribusiness Monthly, as you heard earlier
in the show, was out earlier this week. Jen Corcoran
talked about it. If you want to read it in
more depth, just go to the Rabobank website and you'll
find it under the Knowledge and Networks tab. How good,
(29:50):
how good is this weekend going to be? The WAS tonight,
the All Blacks tomorrow, US Tennis Open. It is an
absolute feast if you're a couch fan. Potato, that's the
best of the country.
Speaker 1 (30:03):
Jane Smith is a North Otago farmer, former winner of
the Balance Farm Environment Awards. Jane, what did you make
of my commentary to Winston that the two key issues,
or two of the key issues out there in rural
New Zealand are.
Speaker 3 (30:27):
One, Paris, and I reckon the rural community is pretty
split over that. And the other one is pricing ag emissions.
And everyone seems to be in agreement with that. We
don't want to do it.
Speaker 7 (30:38):
Good afternoon, Jamie. And firstly, Jamie, welcome back. I didn't
know if you were actually sick or whether you'd been
kidnapped by the Greens as part of their policy to
cleanse the world of white middle-aged men. But certainly pleased
to hear you back on the airwaves. But yeah, I
absolutely agree. And it was really refreshing to hear Mark
de la Tour speak. from Open Country a couple of
(30:59):
days ago in terms of his reality or the reality around,
you know, they're playing in the same product, same markets.
He hadn't been swept up in the, you know, self-imposed
righteousness of emissions assumptions and subsequently punishing farmers for an
issue that is actually a non-issue if you look at
it And I guess Silver Fern Farms have, of course,
(31:22):
been chasing the methane apologist road for quite some time now,
which is such a shame because they do some excellent marketing,
but it's certainly taken it a bridge too far. And
if we really look at this, we're simply adding costs
onto a product that's beyond the premium that people are
willing to pay for something that we've already got balanced out.
(31:42):
And the reality is that we haven't actually managed bothered
as a country to genuinely market the other attractive aspects
of our pastoral production, i.e. GE-free, our hills are producing
free-range protein where no plant-based diet would ever be able
to grow. So the real cost of staying in Paris
when everyone's just too scared to pull out of a
meaningless piece of paper, Jamie.
Speaker 3 (32:03):
But what are the consequences of the Paris Agreement, Accord,
whatever you want to call it? Because As Winston pointed out,
food was meant to be exempt. And if we don't
meet our emissions targets, what happens to us? Do we
just get a slap over the wrist with a wet
bus ticket? Exactly, Jamie.
Speaker 7 (32:24):
And again, adhering to a very expensive piece of paper.
And let's put some, you know, some figures around this,
you know, in terms of what we're trying to be
meeting in terms of net zero, agri zero, carbon zero,
hero zero, and the Paris peril is, you know, being
modelled to be over sort of anywhere between 200,000 billion
and a trillion dollars for our country if you scope
that right out. For what, Jamie? And this is the thing,
(32:47):
we should be putting that money into infrastructure, et cetera,
and some of our real basics in our country in
terms of health care and water storage and education. And
I guess this is the thing, like Again, as a country,
we need to actually be focused on our attributes rather
than a fallacy that we're going to change anything in
terms of the climate. That is already changing and will
(33:09):
always change in perpetuity. So what can we do to
actually be a more robust country? And it's really interesting.
We seem to be sort of self-sabotaging. And I think
the most embarrassing reality is we've done all of this
to ourselves. We've created our own hoops. And there's something
really confronting about not being able to blame someone else
for burdening our country with a disturbing suite of self-imposed
(33:32):
penalties that everybody knows will not make one iota of
difference to how the climate may change over time. And so, again,
and I agree with the tradies that when they say
that our reputation is essential to our trade relationships, But
this could have all been put to bed when we
can actually, you know, you can say a high proportion
of our country's emissions are biogenic methane, but at the
(33:55):
same time that can be completely put to bed by
explaining the methane cycle and stable methane is not contributing
to any additional warming.
Speaker 5 (34:04):
And that is it.
Speaker 7 (34:05):
So that is a massive cost.
Speaker 3 (34:07):
Absolutely agree with you. Ruminants aren't the problem. Man-burning fossil
fuel is the problem. Hey, do you know what keeps
me up at night, other than influencer A Jane Smith?
is the prospect of a centre-left government for farming and
for small business. I watched that Q & A rural
leaders debate and I thought, heaven help us if the centre-left,
(34:28):
and I'm talking about Joe Luxton who said nothing, Daniel
Ebb who frightened me, and Steve Abel who showed his
true colours. If that's what we're up against, last one
to leave, turn the lights out.
Speaker 7 (34:40):
I know, Jamie, and I thought I would have to be,
I did actually hesitate to watch that because I thought
I'd have to be heavily sedated before doing so. And,
you know, they really did dance around the key issues.
I would have said rural health care and freshwater ownership
with the iwi lining up to own the South Island,
if not all freshwater. You know, none of that was
put forward. But probably the most disturbing narrative I heard
(35:02):
was the opportunity cost party, and you just mentioned that.
Daniel then and his vision for farming. So he did
mention in a Chloe Swarbrick type scenario that he would
help us transition from our current farming practices. And of course,
he wants farm values to fall between 10 and 15 percent.
(35:22):
because apparently we're all farming for capital gain, he said.
And certainly one way to decrease our rates, thank you, Daniel,
would be that. But his vision was sort of a
cross between Gloria Vale and the Jetsons. And he said
each farm would be farming less livestock, supporting two or
three or four families in a sort of socialist utopia
where one family would be paid to plant native trees.
(35:45):
I'm not sure by who. One would be doing a
project on farm connected to education. Sounds lovely. And one
might be doing some country calendar type of version of
farm work. And I'm not sure who he thought was
going to be paying... to keep our roads, schools and
hospitals going, let alone the universal beneficiary concept. And I
(36:05):
think these people tend to forget that a 1% drop
in GDP equals at least $ 500 million less tax collected.
And this is a scary thing. It's really, in terms
of economic... insanity, all of these things lead into this.
So yeah, it was an interesting sort of entertaining but
also equally concerning Q & A. I will say about
(36:27):
Steve Abel, he's actually a reasonable, rational type of person.
And I guess when you're surrounded by sort of three
or four crazy Green Party female rainbow warriors, it is
probably easier to look pretty rational. But he does actually...
That did come across as very good, but certainly not
a reason to be putting the Greens into, and to
be there with top and their socialist utopia, Jamie. That
(36:51):
would absolutely keep, should keep every New Zealander awake at night.
Speaker 3 (36:54):
Bring back James Shaw, I say. Jane Smith, thanks for
your time today on The Country.
Speaker 7 (36:58):
Thanks, Jamie.
Speaker 3 (37:14):
Jane smith rapping the best of the country good morning
my name's jamie mckay the show's brought to you by
rabobank we're growing a better new zealand together was tonight
all blacks tomorrow morning great viewing time as for me
i'm based in dunedin i'm driving down to Invercargill today,
my great honour and privilege to emcee the reunion of
(37:37):
the Southland rugby teams that played in the 1970s. Some
great players in there. Six All Blacks, Kenny Stewart, Bob Barber,
Brian McKechnie, double All Black, Lester Rutledge, what a champion,
Stephen Pokeri, gifted, and Ash McGregor. So that's my... Saturday
night filled. I've got to watch the wires as well.
(37:58):
It is 9-11 American time. I'm going to leave you
with one of my favourite 9-11 songs. This is the
Eagles and their tribute to a day that we will
never forget.
Speaker 2 (38:10):
Don't let there be a home in the world tomorrow
Oh they tell me there's a place over yonder Running
through the burning sand Until we learn to love one
(38:34):
another We will never reach the promised land There's a
hole in the world tonight There's a cloud of fear
and sorrow There's a hope in the world tonight. Don't
(38:58):
let there be a hope in the world tomorrow. There's
a hope. They say that anger is just love. It's
a bondage. There's a hope. They say that love is
just a state of mind. There's a hope. But all
(39:19):
this fighting over who will be ignored. Peace of your heart.
There's a hole in the world tonight There's a cloud
of fear and sorrow There's a hole in the world
(39:43):
tonight Don't let there be a hole in the world
tomorrow There's a hole in the world tonight There's a
cloud of fear inside of me There's a hole in
(40:06):
the world tonight Don't let there be a hole in
the world tonight There's a There's a hope in the
(40:29):
world tonight Don't let there be a hole in the
world tonight There's a hope in the world tonight There's
a cloud without a soul There's a hope in the
(40:52):
world tonight There's a hope tonight Little bit of there's
a cloud
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