June 3, 2026 • 4 mins
Rabobank’s senior animal protein analyst previews the bank’s June Agribusiness Monthly Report, which has good news on the income side of the ledger for dairy, sheep and beef, but not such good news when it comes to the cost of farm inputs, oil and freight and interest rates.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Listen
Watch
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Every month Rabobank puts out an agri business monthly report.
I just go straight to the summary page because it
tells me all I need to know and it's all
on one page. Can't beat that. Do you know what,
Jen Corkran, who's the senior animal proteins analyst for Rabobank,
do you know what frightens me the most about this report?
You guys at Rabo Research have changed your baseline forecast
(00:24):
for the Strait of muz to remain closed until September,
and you've raised your Q three and Q four oil
price forecast to one hundred and twenty and one hundred
dollars per barrel, respectively. Gee, that's grim who wrote this
for you? Was it my friend Michael every the global strategist.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
Hi, Jamie, And yes, you know we have this global
team that updates a lot of these forecasts and live
right in this world. Right, So we've got Mike Everry,
who's definitely one of the key ones tierre and who
is one of the main people who've come up with
sort of our current baseline view, which was up to
we sort of were hoping or or ahead of you
that the straight might start to reach sort of normal
(01:06):
opening levels in that late mayorly Dune period. But having
hit that've re evaluated and you know, the rubber research
view now assumes this strait is likely to remain out
of normal operation until around September, So that really pushes
things out. And I think it's just important for us
to have a view on what we think is going
to happen. And we hear talks of these deals and
(01:27):
you know, this and that and back and forward, but
actually at the end of the day, there's no real
solution happening right now.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
There's still very few ships.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
And making it through, and this is where we sit, and.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
That will push oil prices higher.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
As we move through the if this space case kind
of unfolds as we see it.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
Well, considerably higher because last time I had a lock,
Brent Krube was trading in the nineties, I think, so
to get up to one hundred and twenty in Q
three is a bit of a concern. Let's hope, Michael
every my favorite alarmist Jen Corchran, has that wrong, because
here's another one, and this is probably a guy in Sydney,
Ben Pickton, who does your foreign exchange and interest rate forecasting.
(02:07):
You're forecasting twenty five points rate hike at the next
meeting in July. That would be no surprise.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
Yeah, no surprise for most people, I think the Jamie
and it was really interesting to hear right that we
had that three and three split in terms of the
decision on the day, and that that was sort of
vocalized out, and it really does suggest that the direction
of Trevor, even within some of the commentary that came
out from the other NST after that. So I think
that one's reasonably firm, I guess in terms of the
(02:38):
potential view and unsurprising unfortunately, just given what is going
on globally, even though we can't control it, we're trying
to kind of control that future inflationary pressure a lot
further down the road, I think with this.
Speaker 1 (02:51):
One, more to look at on the debit side of
the ledger before we get to the good news, which
is the credit side of the ledger. Farm inputs no
surprise here. We've talked about fuel prices, fertilizer ditto. Farm
inputs across the board all have a fuel component in them.
They will stay up. Okay, that's the bad news. The
good news is when we look at the prospects for dairy,
(03:12):
beef and sheep in your agribusiness or June agribusiness monthly.
It's all pretty positive. I'll leave the dairy because it's
not your absolute area of expertise. You are the red
meat gal. Can I say that Jen at Rabobank, you're
the expert in the field there. How good's that looking?
Speaker 3 (03:28):
It's looking good, isn't it, Jamie?
Speaker 2 (03:29):
And I do spend most of my day to day
sort of on that animal protein, red meat side.
Speaker 3 (03:34):
For New Zealand, and it's wonderful to see.
Speaker 1 (03:36):
You know.
Speaker 3 (03:37):
I think we've talked. We talked a couple of years.
Speaker 2 (03:39):
Here and we were like, you know, six, sevens and
eights probably were some of the frontline numbers that we
were speaking. I think they might have even been a
five at one point, Jamie. But you know, we're looking
at what are we looking at? Nine to tens elevens,
tens elevens, twelve potentially into the spring and some in
terms of some of these front farm gate price numbers.
And this is really good to see, and it is
(04:00):
showing that that there's some very strong fundamentals despite all
the messy global situation, there's some really strong fundamentals when
it comes to that supply and demand situation, and it's
very much a supply story that's kind of keeping a
floor in these prices. In the floor is pretty high,
and we're actually starting to see that up tick now
as we head into the beginning.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
Of winter, so more room to move I think upwards.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
And the fundamentals in terms of that protein demand globally
for our wonderful products that doesn't have an ingredients list
is at the top of the menus at the moment,
I think for a lot of people.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
Yeah, we had a guy called Simon Quilty. Do you
know him? He was at the Beef and Lamb New
Zealand conference in christ Church and he's been spouting twelve
dollars in excess of twelve dollars for lamb in excess
of ten dollars for beef for the new season. I
hope he's right on that one. Jen Corchran, Hey, thanks
for some of your time. You can read more about
it in the June Agribusiness Monthly Report on the Rabobank website.
(04:55):
See you at field Days see us Jamie
Every month Rabobank puts out an agri business monthly report.
I just go straight to the summary page because it
tells me all I need to know and it's all
on one page. Can't beat that. Do you know what,
Jen Corkran, who's the senior animal proteins analyst for Rabobank,
do you know what frightens me the most about this report?
You guys at Rabo Research have changed your baseline forecast
(00:24):
for the Strait of muz to remain closed until September,
and you've raised your Q three and Q four oil
price forecast to one hundred and twenty and one hundred
dollars per barrel, respectively. Gee, that's grim who wrote this
for you? Was it my friend Michael every the global strategist.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
Hi, Jamie, And yes, you know we have this global
team that updates a lot of these forecasts and live
right in this world. Right, So we've got Mike Everry,
who's definitely one of the key ones tierre and who
is one of the main people who've come up with
sort of our current baseline view, which was up to
we sort of were hoping or or ahead of you
that the straight might start to reach sort of normal
(01:06):
opening levels in that late mayorly Dune period. But having
hit that've re evaluated and you know, the rubber research
view now assumes this strait is likely to remain out
of normal operation until around September, So that really pushes
things out. And I think it's just important for us
to have a view on what we think is going
to happen. And we hear talks of these deals and
(01:27):
you know, this and that and back and forward, but
actually at the end of the day, there's no real
solution happening right now.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
There's still very few ships.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
And making it through, and this is where we sit, and.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
That will push oil prices higher.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
As we move through the if this space case kind
of unfolds as we see it.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
Well, considerably higher because last time I had a lock,
Brent Krube was trading in the nineties, I think, so
to get up to one hundred and twenty in Q
three is a bit of a concern. Let's hope, Michael
every my favorite alarmist Jen Corchran, has that wrong, because
here's another one, and this is probably a guy in Sydney,
Ben Pickton, who does your foreign exchange and interest rate forecasting.
(02:07):
You're forecasting twenty five points rate hike at the next
meeting in July. That would be no surprise.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
Yeah, no surprise for most people, I think the Jamie
and it was really interesting to hear right that we
had that three and three split in terms of the
decision on the day, and that that was sort of
vocalized out, and it really does suggest that the direction
of Trevor, even within some of the commentary that came
out from the other NST after that. So I think
that one's reasonably firm, I guess in terms of the
(02:38):
potential view and unsurprising unfortunately, just given what is going
on globally, even though we can't control it, we're trying
to kind of control that future inflationary pressure a lot
further down the road, I think with this.
Speaker 1 (02:51):
One, more to look at on the debit side of
the ledger before we get to the good news, which
is the credit side of the ledger. Farm inputs no
surprise here. We've talked about fuel prices, fertilizer ditto. Farm
inputs across the board all have a fuel component in them.
They will stay up. Okay, that's the bad news. The
good news is when we look at the prospects for dairy,
(03:12):
beef and sheep in your agribusiness or June agribusiness monthly.
It's all pretty positive. I'll leave the dairy because it's
not your absolute area of expertise. You are the red
meat gal. Can I say that Jen at Rabobank, you're
the expert in the field there. How good's that looking?
Speaker 3 (03:28):
It's looking good, isn't it, Jamie?
Speaker 2 (03:29):
And I do spend most of my day to day
sort of on that animal protein, red meat side.
Speaker 3 (03:34):
For New Zealand, and it's wonderful to see.
Speaker 1 (03:36):
You know.
Speaker 3 (03:37):
I think we've talked. We talked a couple of years.
Speaker 2 (03:39):
Here and we were like, you know, six, sevens and
eights probably were some of the frontline numbers that we
were speaking. I think they might have even been a
five at one point, Jamie. But you know, we're looking
at what are we looking at? Nine to tens elevens,
tens elevens, twelve potentially into the spring and some in
terms of some of these front farm gate price numbers.
And this is really good to see, and it is
(04:00):
showing that that there's some very strong fundamentals despite all
the messy global situation, there's some really strong fundamentals when
it comes to that supply and demand situation, and it's
very much a supply story that's kind of keeping a
floor in these prices. In the floor is pretty high,
and we're actually starting to see that up tick now
as we head into the beginning.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
Of winter, so more room to move I think upwards.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
And the fundamentals in terms of that protein demand globally
for our wonderful products that doesn't have an ingredients list
is at the top of the menus at the moment,
I think for a lot of people.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
Yeah, we had a guy called Simon Quilty. Do you
know him? He was at the Beef and Lamb New
Zealand conference in christ Church and he's been spouting twelve
dollars in excess of twelve dollars for lamb in excess
of ten dollars for beef for the new season. I
hope he's right on that one. Jen Corchran, Hey, thanks
for some of your time. You can read more about
it in the June Agribusiness Monthly Report on the Rabobank website.
(04:55):
See you at field Days see us Jamie
Popular Podcasts
Hey Jonas!
Hey Jonas! The official Jonas Brothers podcast. Hosted by Kevin, Joe, and Nick Jonas. It’s the Jonas Brothers you know... musicians, actors, and well, yes, brothers. Now, they’re sharing another side of themselves in the playful, intimate, and irreverent way only they can. Spend time with the Jonas Brothers here and stay a little bit longer for deep conversations like never before.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com