The Country 04/09/26: Chris Brandolino talks to Hamish McKay

Chief Scientist at Earth Science NZ discusses El Nino, and the erratic start to spring across the country. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Chris Prandolino, Chief Scientist, Earth Science NZ. G'day, Chris, how
are you?

Speaker 2 (00:04):
Oh, busier than a one-legged man in a bum-kicking contest.
How are you?

Speaker 1 (00:10):
I hope you're not going to come second then, yeah. Gee,
that does sound busy. Yeah, no, no, no, all good
in my part of the world. But, hey, it's been
an erratic old start to spring down south, that cold blast,
and pretty windy in the north.

Speaker 2 (00:23):
Yeah, this is El Nino, and El Nino, I guess
an El Nino-fueled spring season. And this is basically a
summary or a snapshot what I think spring will feature. Yes,
there'll be periods that certainly differ from the theme, but
the theme is wind. Some of that wind is going
to be quite strong. It'll be in the westerly quarter,

(00:44):
so sometimes north of west, sometimes south of west, and
that direction will obviously inform or influence temperature. But it's
going to be a westerly quarter, more persistently, more intensely.
So we are going to find wind as a theme.
for the spring season. And some of that one will
be quite strong, as I say. And in addition to that,
it's going to be rain. So wind coming off the

(01:05):
Tasman Sea, bringing moisture. And what that's going to do
is we're going to see areas in the western and
lower South Island most exposed to those westerly winds. So
we're looking at wet conditions basically over the next several days.
There'll be waves of rain. Some of that will fall heavily.
And as we go through time, we'll have to watch
the risk for things like flooding. And certainly they'll have

(01:25):
impacts on beef and lamb. in a coming season, getting underway, particularly,
or as it does get underway, if it's not already,
across the lower portions of the South Island.

Speaker 1 (01:35):
Yeah, so look, there's plenty to be wary of, isn't it?
But do you think that this amount of information that
you are now able to provide is being, I mean,
is it on the uptake? Are people actually taking notice?

Speaker 2 (01:50):
I sure hope so. I mean, look, it's certainly been
in the media. We've certainly done our best to make
people aware to give some early indications. We've been talking
about this for the past few months now about this,
you know, basically things starting to go in a direction
or a certain El Nino direction come spring. Spring is
here now, and that's what we're seeing. So I think

(02:10):
generally speaking, it's quite early, of course, but things have
worked out for the most part. And so I certainly
hope so. I do think while wetness and wind is
a concern for the western lower South Island area, We're
going to have to watch for, I guess, on the
other side of the spectrum, that's too little rain over
eastern and northern parts of both islands, especially the north island.

(02:32):
That's where potentially the dryness, Hawke's Bay, Gizzy, Guadarapa, eastern parts,
especially of Northland, Auckland, eastern parts, northern parts of the
South Island as well. Because of that wind coming from
the west, it dries as it gets to the other
side of the divide area. And look, it's one thing,
dryness can obviously develop, Hamish, from a lack of rain.

(02:55):
No duh, right? But it's not just that. As our
days get longer, as the sun gets stronger, and we
see these warmer temperatures coinciding with wind, look, wind and
warm temperatures, like the bathroom hand dryers, are really good
at removing moisture. And so you combine a reduction of rainfall,
you combine the wind and these days of higher temperatures,

(03:16):
Where those three things kind of come together, that's where
we're going to find the most trouble. Exactly where that is,
hard to say, but that's where we're speaking in these
sort of broad strokes of northern and eastern parts of both.
It'll take some time for dryness or the effects of
dryness to emerge, probably until we get deeper into spring.
But once it does start to emerge, it kind of

(03:37):
becomes a bit sticky, and it's hard to get rid
of even if you do get a bit of rain.

Speaker 1 (03:42):
Sensational. As I say, if you are listening to Chris Brandolino,
Chief Scientist, Earth Science NZ, on the country, then you
can't say you haven't been warned. Chris, thank you very
much as always. Much appreciated.

Speaker 2 (03:56):
Likewise, Hamish. You have a good day, sir.