June 4, 2026 • 9 mins
The former Minister for Primary Industries and current NZ Special Ag Trade Envoy, just back in the country, talks about Trump’s latest tariff debacle. Plus we look at the perilous state of the honey industry.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Let's kick off the show with the former Minister for
Primary Industries. These days he's New Zealand's Special Agricultural Trade Envoy,
and when he's not doing that and traveling around the US,
the EU and the UK is a horror fin or
a cowcocky. I'll start with the dairy farming Nathan guy.
You've had some useful rain. You guys were really dry.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Yeah, afternoon, Jamie. Yes, we've had about thirty miles. Just
came from nowhere this morning. Fantastic. We had twenty two
miles for May, which was unheard of, lowest in about
twenty years looking back on the records. But I guess
one small benefit was the utilization was fantastic. So we
(00:41):
always bitch and moan about something, Jamie. Typically it's the weather.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
Yeah, well, at least you wouldn't need to get the
gun boots out. You won't be making much mud. I
just hope that the super al Nino doesn't rear its
head because it could get very messy for some parts
of the country. We'll keep our fingers crossed on that one.
More about that a bit later in the show with
Chris Brandolino from Newa. Now you're just back from a
(01:06):
trade trip to the US, the EU and the UK,
And of course was it yesterday or the day before
we had Trump announcing a new range of terraffs. He's
just trying to skin the cat in a different way.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
Yes, we always knew that this was a possibility. We
hoped it wouldn't happen, and talking to all the experts
over there, no one really knows what's next coming out
of the Oval Office. This was an investigation on forced labor.
We know we haven't got any of that now supply chain.
If anything like that that happens untoward, it's dealt with
(01:42):
very quickly. So it's unfortunate. But I guess we've been
here before and I look across the Tasman they were
at ten percent. If this all comes to bear, and
we're still waiting in the next couple of months, they
will move to twelve and a half. So other countries
like US are in similar boat. We do worry about
(02:05):
a potential sheep meat investigation being talked about on your
show over the last couple of months, so we are
hoping that doesn't happen, but we're bracing for it.
Speaker 1 (02:15):
There's a rich irony in this isn't there, Nathan Guy.
Because Trump's talking about forced labor and countries like Australia
and New Zealand, the force labor's happening in the US.
Speaker 2 (02:27):
Well, I won't comment on what goes on in the US.
We know that we haven't got an issue here. That's
the fundamental fact. Our officials went from Foreign Affairs and
presented up there. I'm sure they'll be representing us again.
We'll have one last crack to say we're not the problem.
But the reality is, I think this is going to
(02:49):
happen most unfortunate. Of course, the US consumers are worried
about fuel prices which have risen remarkably quickly, not quite
as fast as ours have an NZ because of the
Middle East, but they'll be worried about the inflationary aspect
of this. We saw it play out with beef, Jamie,
(03:10):
where they backpedaled on beef because of the price of
the hamburgers went through the roof.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
Mind you, even under this news scenario, the twelve and
a half percent terraffrogime beef and key with fruit, as
I understand it, remain immune from these tariffs.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
That's right, and fundamentally that's because supply and demand can't
get enough beef. So you've seen recently that Brazil has
been given some great access. The Trump administration are hoping
that the prices will come down as a result. And
Kiwifruit is this wonderful, wonderful almost a superpowered fruit that
(03:50):
is now playing out with this GLP one drug. It's
on the list because it's high in fiber, high in nutrition.
So we're very fortunate despite these tariffs that across the board,
the primary sectors in very good heart.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
Okay, when we look at our and you correct me
if my numbers are wrong, these are just off the
top of my head. Red meats something like about three billion.
Of course, more than half of that will be exempt.
I use the word immune. I should have gone with
exempt from tariffs dairy one billion, and then wine seven
hundred and fifty million. So from a dairy farming point
(04:26):
of view, can we move that stuff to other more
lucrative markets.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
Oh, potentially, But this is a high value market for
US in the US. So this is what Fonterra has
to deal with on a daily basis. Where is the
price point, where's the demand? Yes, they can move product
around the place, but they have to deal like every
meat company and every exporter with his geopolitical issues. They
(04:52):
seem to be a lot more common than what they
have been in the past. So this is the vagaries
of trade and that's what our exporters have to deal with.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
Putting on your n Z Special Agricultural Trade Envoy hat,
you're just back, as I said, from the US, the
EU and the UK. What sort of what are you getting?
What messaging are you getting from our markets?
Speaker 2 (05:14):
Oh? If I just look at the UK, because we've
just celebrated three years since the FDA and our exports
have grown forty percent in this market in the last
two years. And let's not forget they import about forty
percent of the food that they eat for their seventy
million customers. So we've got a gold plated FDA there
(05:35):
and it's proving it's worth for our exporters. If we
look at the EU two way trade, twenty three billion,
massive for red meat about two billion, a growing opportunity
for dairy there, six hundred million kiwfruit about a billion,
So it's a massive market and a huge opportunity there
(05:55):
four hundred and fifty million consumers. We're blessed with a
very good FPA with the EU as well, just celebrated
that in the last few months. So if you look
at those historical markets of ours, the rock solid opportunity
for growth, and then the US is an important one
and we just celebrated one hundred years of red meat
(06:17):
exports to the US. Yes we've got headwines, but once
again that's a high value market for US.
Speaker 1 (06:23):
Nathan Guy with US former Minister for Primary Industries these
days in New Zealand's Special Agricultural tradeing boy, I don't
know whether you caught up with that Rabobank Agribusiness Monthly
report released yesterday. The RABO research or the global team
is suggesting that or they've changed their baseline forecast for
the Strait of Hermus to remain closed until September. And
(06:45):
they're talking about Q three and Q four oil price
forecasts of a one hundred and twenty and one hundred
US dollars respectively per barrel. That's not a good outlook.
I hope they got that wrong.
Speaker 2 (06:58):
I hope they did too. They've certainly got a headline
out of their report and Rabo's normally pretty good, but
I hope they're wrong. You and I follow this closely.
You know, there's peace talks, there's a truth going on,
and then suddenly it doesn't happen. So I think that
it's going to be resolved quicker than what Rabobank thinks,
(07:20):
mainly because of the politics. Trump administration have got their
eyes focused on the midterms not too far away, so
they won't want this still playing out when people are
going to the ballot box.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
To finish on. Nathan Guy, you've stepped out of a
meeting the AGM of Apiculture n Z. You are the chair.
Are you going to change your name to Honey and
Bees n Z.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
Yes, well that's a transition proposal. We are coming together
and we've got the vote happening shortly with another industry
group there, NZBI. It's commonly referred to. So we're hoping
that the industry can hold and and move forward. A
very important industry, has the potential to really grow, and
(08:07):
it's bogged down in politics. So I'm doing what I
can to try and path the way forward, and I'm
hoping that the voter is positive this afternoon. Otherwise we'll
be winding down, it'll be left to someone else.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
That sounds a bit messy. How the poor old honey
produces the beekeepers going because a few years ago Manuka
honey was going to be the answer for all our oes.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
Well it still is and it's coming out of the doldrums.
Of course, if you look at the global economics Jamie,
on the back of COVID, it has taken a while
for economies to start growing again, so that's impacted honey
returns we're seeing I hate this word green shirts, but
(08:50):
the reality is the markets bumbled along the bottom, hit
the rocks and it's rebounding now. We've also had not
a great harvest because it's been too wet. It's been
great for our cockies and sheep and bee farmers across
the country because it's mainly been wet, but that's not
so good for honey production. So the market's responding to
(09:12):
less volume and values on its way up, and they
need a strong industry body to represent them, not only
in government but around the world.
Speaker 1 (09:20):
Nathan God, We'll let you get back to that apiculture end.
Zed AGM. Hope to see you next week in Hamilton
for the field Days.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
Look forward to catching up Jamie.
Let's kick off the show with the former Minister for
Primary Industries. These days he's New Zealand's Special Agricultural Trade Envoy,
and when he's not doing that and traveling around the US,
the EU and the UK is a horror fin or
a cowcocky. I'll start with the dairy farming Nathan guy.
You've had some useful rain. You guys were really dry.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Yeah, afternoon, Jamie. Yes, we've had about thirty miles. Just
came from nowhere this morning. Fantastic. We had twenty two
miles for May, which was unheard of, lowest in about
twenty years looking back on the records. But I guess
one small benefit was the utilization was fantastic. So we
(00:41):
always bitch and moan about something, Jamie. Typically it's the weather.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
Yeah, well, at least you wouldn't need to get the
gun boots out. You won't be making much mud. I
just hope that the super al Nino doesn't rear its
head because it could get very messy for some parts
of the country. We'll keep our fingers crossed on that one.
More about that a bit later in the show with
Chris Brandolino from Newa. Now you're just back from a
(01:06):
trade trip to the US, the EU and the UK,
And of course was it yesterday or the day before
we had Trump announcing a new range of terraffs. He's
just trying to skin the cat in a different way.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
Yes, we always knew that this was a possibility. We
hoped it wouldn't happen, and talking to all the experts
over there, no one really knows what's next coming out
of the Oval Office. This was an investigation on forced labor.
We know we haven't got any of that now supply chain.
If anything like that that happens untoward, it's dealt with
(01:42):
very quickly. So it's unfortunate. But I guess we've been
here before and I look across the Tasman they were
at ten percent. If this all comes to bear, and
we're still waiting in the next couple of months, they
will move to twelve and a half. So other countries
like US are in similar boat. We do worry about
(02:05):
a potential sheep meat investigation being talked about on your
show over the last couple of months, so we are
hoping that doesn't happen, but we're bracing for it.
Speaker 1 (02:15):
There's a rich irony in this isn't there, Nathan Guy.
Because Trump's talking about forced labor and countries like Australia
and New Zealand, the force labor's happening in the US.
Speaker 2 (02:27):
Well, I won't comment on what goes on in the US.
We know that we haven't got an issue here. That's
the fundamental fact. Our officials went from Foreign Affairs and
presented up there. I'm sure they'll be representing us again.
We'll have one last crack to say we're not the problem.
But the reality is, I think this is going to
(02:49):
happen most unfortunate. Of course, the US consumers are worried
about fuel prices which have risen remarkably quickly, not quite
as fast as ours have an NZ because of the
Middle East, but they'll be worried about the inflationary aspect
of this. We saw it play out with beef, Jamie,
(03:10):
where they backpedaled on beef because of the price of
the hamburgers went through the roof.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
Mind you, even under this news scenario, the twelve and
a half percent terraffrogime beef and key with fruit, as
I understand it, remain immune from these tariffs.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
That's right, and fundamentally that's because supply and demand can't
get enough beef. So you've seen recently that Brazil has
been given some great access. The Trump administration are hoping
that the prices will come down as a result. And
Kiwifruit is this wonderful, wonderful almost a superpowered fruit that
(03:50):
is now playing out with this GLP one drug. It's
on the list because it's high in fiber, high in nutrition.
So we're very fortunate despite these tariffs that across the board,
the primary sectors in very good heart.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
Okay, when we look at our and you correct me
if my numbers are wrong, these are just off the
top of my head. Red meats something like about three billion.
Of course, more than half of that will be exempt.
I use the word immune. I should have gone with
exempt from tariffs dairy one billion, and then wine seven
hundred and fifty million. So from a dairy farming point
(04:26):
of view, can we move that stuff to other more
lucrative markets.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
Oh, potentially, But this is a high value market for
US in the US. So this is what Fonterra has
to deal with on a daily basis. Where is the
price point, where's the demand? Yes, they can move product
around the place, but they have to deal like every
meat company and every exporter with his geopolitical issues. They
(04:52):
seem to be a lot more common than what they
have been in the past. So this is the vagaries
of trade and that's what our exporters have to deal with.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
Putting on your n Z Special Agricultural Trade Envoy hat,
you're just back, as I said, from the US, the
EU and the UK. What sort of what are you getting?
What messaging are you getting from our markets?
Speaker 2 (05:14):
Oh? If I just look at the UK, because we've
just celebrated three years since the FDA and our exports
have grown forty percent in this market in the last
two years. And let's not forget they import about forty
percent of the food that they eat for their seventy
million customers. So we've got a gold plated FDA there
(05:35):
and it's proving it's worth for our exporters. If we
look at the EU two way trade, twenty three billion,
massive for red meat about two billion, a growing opportunity
for dairy there, six hundred million kiwfruit about a billion,
So it's a massive market and a huge opportunity there
(05:55):
four hundred and fifty million consumers. We're blessed with a
very good FPA with the EU as well, just celebrated
that in the last few months. So if you look
at those historical markets of ours, the rock solid opportunity
for growth, and then the US is an important one
and we just celebrated one hundred years of red meat
(06:17):
exports to the US. Yes we've got headwines, but once
again that's a high value market for US.
Speaker 1 (06:23):
Nathan Guy with US former Minister for Primary Industries these
days in New Zealand's Special Agricultural tradeing boy, I don't
know whether you caught up with that Rabobank Agribusiness Monthly
report released yesterday. The RABO research or the global team
is suggesting that or they've changed their baseline forecast for
the Strait of Hermus to remain closed until September. And
(06:45):
they're talking about Q three and Q four oil price
forecasts of a one hundred and twenty and one hundred
US dollars respectively per barrel. That's not a good outlook.
I hope they got that wrong.
Speaker 2 (06:58):
I hope they did too. They've certainly got a headline
out of their report and Rabo's normally pretty good, but
I hope they're wrong. You and I follow this closely.
You know, there's peace talks, there's a truth going on,
and then suddenly it doesn't happen. So I think that
it's going to be resolved quicker than what Rabobank thinks,
(07:20):
mainly because of the politics. Trump administration have got their
eyes focused on the midterms not too far away, so
they won't want this still playing out when people are
going to the ballot box.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
To finish on. Nathan Guy, you've stepped out of a
meeting the AGM of Apiculture n Z. You are the chair.
Are you going to change your name to Honey and
Bees n Z.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
Yes, well that's a transition proposal. We are coming together
and we've got the vote happening shortly with another industry
group there, NZBI. It's commonly referred to. So we're hoping
that the industry can hold and and move forward. A
very important industry, has the potential to really grow, and
(08:07):
it's bogged down in politics. So I'm doing what I
can to try and path the way forward, and I'm
hoping that the voter is positive this afternoon. Otherwise we'll
be winding down, it'll be left to someone else.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
That sounds a bit messy. How the poor old honey
produces the beekeepers going because a few years ago Manuka
honey was going to be the answer for all our oes.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
Well it still is and it's coming out of the doldrums.
Of course, if you look at the global economics Jamie,
on the back of COVID, it has taken a while
for economies to start growing again, so that's impacted honey
returns we're seeing I hate this word green shirts, but
(08:50):
the reality is the markets bumbled along the bottom, hit
the rocks and it's rebounding now. We've also had not
a great harvest because it's been too wet. It's been
great for our cockies and sheep and bee farmers across
the country because it's mainly been wet, but that's not
so good for honey production. So the market's responding to
(09:12):
less volume and values on its way up, and they
need a strong industry body to represent them, not only
in government but around the world.
Speaker 1 (09:20):
Nathan God, We'll let you get back to that apiculture end.
Zed AGM. Hope to see you next week in Hamilton
for the field Days.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
Look forward to catching up Jamie.
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