The Country 06/11/25: Professor Keith Woodford talks to Jamie Mackay

Farming academic says the current high red meat prices, up more than 30% since 2024, are a “sweet spot that won’t be maintained”. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
I do enjoy here on the country talking to people
who are smarter than me. Now, the cynics out there
will say that's just about everyone I'm talking to, but
in the case of my next guest, it definitely is
the case. Professor Keith Woodford, formerly of Lincoln University, has
written a really interesting piece on interest dot co dot
in Z. I think it was in Farmers Weekly as well,

(00:21):
and he writes this year is a remarkable time for
sheep and beef farms, with record prices for both lamb
meat and beef. Farmgate prices are up in the order
of thirty percent since twenty twenty four, and in some
situations even more. He goes on to say, it is
a sweet spot that won't be maintained. Keith, your glass

(00:45):
your glass should I say half empty on this one
good afternoon?

Speaker 2 (00:50):
Yeah, Well, it's challenging sons the striker balance. They are
exciting times. We all hope that they're going to be maintained.
There are some reasons why they could be maintained, and
we all hope that's going to happen. But I'm just
saying that for farmers they need to wait till they

(01:13):
see the money in the bank before they actually spend
the money, because history tells us that these prices are cyclical,
and it would be just a little bit over confident
to say these what we've got now is a normal
going forward. Hopefully it is, but by gosh, just let's

(01:34):
make sure we can see the money in the bank
before we spend them.

Speaker 1 (01:37):
Yes, very sage advice there, Keith Woodford. Let's start with Lamb.
It's at eleven dollars a kilo at the moment, but
you know that's an out of season peak if you want.
Tom Young from AFCO earlier in the week, Keith said
he could see a Lamb schedule of nine dollars fifty
to ten dollars at the peak of the season. I
think that's pretty good going. You're suggesting it could be.

(02:00):
How isn't that.

Speaker 2 (02:01):
Oh, I'm just saying, I think that's a fantastic price,
and I'm just waiting a little bit with vated breath
to see how consumers react to those higher prices. And
this is a cross in world market. So you know,

(02:22):
we're talking about the EU, we're talking about Britain, and
we're talking about America, and I think, you know, we
just know that high prices almost always lead to a
consumer response. So fingers cross fingers costs to see how
it holds.

Speaker 1 (02:41):
Mind you, as lamb now a niche product as opposed
to a staple like beef.

Speaker 2 (02:48):
Well it's almost become a niche product back here in
New Zealand. Even the problem with a niche product is
that you can go to other products. Now, lamb happens
to be my favorite meat people, you know, I mean
overseas people. They can certainly buy chicken, and they can

(03:11):
buy pork. It's just a fraction of the price that
they're paying for now for beef and lamb.

Speaker 1 (03:20):
Yeah, but it doesn't taste as good. Let's move on
to beef Professor Keith Woodford, because it would appear to
me that certainly in the medium term, the outlook for
beef is going to be stronger than probably any other
meat simply because of the dynamics of what's happening in
the US market. Or am I wrong? Am I reading
that wrong?

Speaker 2 (03:38):
Well, it's certainly a big factor. And you know, the
beef cycle in the US is something I've been watching.
Their breeding herd is now the lowest it's been for
about seventy years, and that couple of pectors. There's just
one of them is the regular beef cycle, which runs

(03:59):
on a name to ten year period. Another is the
drought that they had a year or so ago. And
what happens with the B cycle is once the Americans
decide to build their herds again, is actually less meat
comes into the marketplace because all the female stock is

(04:23):
getting retained as readers. So that's an incredible good sort
of signal coming to us that we can see with
the where the V cycle is currently that you know,
we would hope, all other things being equal, that the

(04:44):
price would be maintained now for several years. But what
we've also got to remember the traditional on the last
few years, the biggest source of imported beef into the
United States has been Brazil. Brazilts overall exports of beef
for about six times US. They're the leader in the world. Effectively,

(05:07):
they've been shut out of the United States and they're
now putting huge quantities into China. Well, until very recently,
China was our biggest beef market. At the moment, the
US is our biggest beef market, but China is still
very important to us. And you know, just your word

(05:29):
of course, there was so much Brazilian beef looking for
a home. There's uncertainty out there, and that's all I'm
really saying is that we shouldn't see the current sweet
spot as necessarily being the long term normal. Let's wait

(05:52):
and see how it does develop. Let's hope and hope
that it is maintained. That would be fantastic, But don't
spend the money till it's in the bank.

Speaker 1 (06:04):
Hey, Professor Keith Wood. But always good to chat to
you here on the country. Really appreciate your time, because
I realize you're running out of it. And I say
that with the utmost respect. You're having a battle with
pancreatic cancer. You have got one hell of a constitution
because at this stage you're winning the battle. You've got
your head above water. Not everyone can say that, So
well done.

Speaker 2 (06:26):
Yes, since three years now, since I was diagnosed with
being created cancer, and with hindsight, I had it before that,
so it was reasonably advanced and I am doing a
great deal better than what I was advice was likely
at the start. So yep, well it's good. I'm continuing

(06:50):
to stay involved. There's a few things that can't do,
like trevel overseas anymore. But yep, I'm still active.

Speaker 1 (06:58):
Yeah, and you can still go skiing. You're a champion,
Keith working for Thanks as always for your time, Stay well, okay,
good Cherry, Jamie