The Country 07/09/26: Phil Duncan talks to Jamie Mackay

Monday’s resident weatherman on the impending Super El Niño.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome back to the country. One of my longest serving
correspondents is this man, Phil Duncan. Phil, we haven't chatted
for three weeks. I've missed you, my friend, from Weather Watch.

Speaker 2 (00:09):
I've missed you. It's been very different for the last
few weeks without you around.

Speaker 1 (00:13):
Well, there you go, but I'm back and I'm back
for good. Hey, this text from a farmer or someone
anyhow in South Otago saying it's bloody wet and cold.
When are we going to get some warm, sunny days?
I'm hearing the same things from my Southland farming mates
and this is kind of classic Early El Nino, isn't it?
Southland having a shit of a spring.

Speaker 2 (00:34):
Yeah, it is. Yeah, the lower South Island, Fiordland, Southland, Otago,
that kind of corner, southwest corner, is definitely getting the
brunt of all these cold changes. At the moment, most
of the wet weather today, though, up around the top
of the country and clearing now away from parts of
the South Island, where it has been raining around Marlborough

(00:55):
and Nelson this morning, Now we're seeing some heavy rain
going through Hawke's Bay, especially the north of Napier going
up towards Wairoa. Some heavy rain through Central Plateau as
well and the lower North Island. And the top of
the country, the top half of the North Island, getting
some heavy downpours as low pressure moves in. So we've
got a low crossing the North Island tonight. That moves

(01:17):
away tomorrow. And then on Wednesday night, in comes the
next cold change. And it's a wintry snap that will go...
right across New Zealand over Thursday and Thursday night. And
then as early as Friday, it gets pushed away from
us again. So it's classic spring.

Speaker 1 (01:32):
Yeah, is there any... Tom, you talked about... Tom Young
talked about the rain coming into Hawke's Bay. He said
they were kind of dry. It is going to get
dry on the east coast of both islands. But is
there anywhere right at the moment that's desperately dry?

Speaker 2 (01:45):
I don't really think there's anywhere that's desperately dry. But
I have had farmers writing to me more and more
over the last couple of weeks around the North Island.
just saying things are drying out a bit, we could
do with more rain. One of those farmers wrote to
me from Northland, and then literally the next day they
had a huge amount of rain. So, you know, the
soil moisture map is looking pretty good at the moment.

(02:07):
It is leaning a bit dry in some eastern parts
of the country. Not all of the eastern parts of
the country, though. So I think we're in a pretty
good shape. The North Island's got plenty of rain over
the next week ahead. The eastern side of the South Island,
in particular North Canterbury southeast, Sorry, North Otago, South Canterbury.
That's one area that may miss out on some of

(02:27):
the rain, though, over the next week and a half.

Speaker 1 (02:29):
Hey, Phil Duncan, great to have you back on the country.
Thanks very much, mate. Appreciate it.

Speaker 2 (02:34):
Great to have you back.

Speaker 1 (02:35):
Yeah, thank you. It is good to be back. I
was slowly going nuts at home.

Speaker 2 (02:40):
Seriously.