The Country 09/07/26: Chris Brandolino talks to Hamish McKay

We get a weather update from Earth Science New Zealand’s principal scientist, including severe weather affecting Hawke’s Bay and Tairāwhiti. Plus, Canterbury’s flooding, a shift towards more settled weather, and what a developing El Niño could mean for spring.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Chris Brandolina joins us.

Speaker 2 (00:01):
Now, Chris, where are we sort of focusing on across
the country now, given it's been it's been a bombing
old week in some places have got hit very hard.

Speaker 3 (00:11):
Yeah, Look, I think it's a good afternoon. I think
it's the eastern part of the North Island where we
have severe weather watches and warnings, some heavy rain occurring
in portions of Hawks Face. So that's an area if
you have plans or traveling or live in that region,
there are they are getting and we'll continue to receive
some significant rainfall, particularly about the Ranges this afternoon into

(00:33):
the evening hours, which will thankfully east tomorrow, but it
may take some time and probably shift north a bit
toward tadashty Gisban. So that's the area of concern in
terms of active weather. A pretty stiff southerly impact in
the Lower North Island as well for the Marble Sounds,
or we're toward the Lower North Island into Tetanaki, especially

(00:54):
the south coast of Tatanaki, where winds make gusts close
to ninety even one hundred kilometers per hour that rain
over toward Hawk's Bay. I mentioned that'll be wind swept rain,
he said, with gusty sutherly. So a good old fashioned
winter's day with some heavy rain across portions of the
North Island and.

Speaker 2 (01:13):
Things backed off around kai Kura and those parts.

Speaker 3 (01:17):
Yeah, they have, but not not without a mark. I mean, boy,
there's been some heavy rain. I'm just looking at some
of the totals from e can Environment, Cannabury, and boy,
there there are one, two, three pre locations near or
above four hundred and twenty five millimeters of rain for
the I guess the three day total. So it's just

(01:38):
really high amounts of rainfall, many areas above three hundred
millimeters of rain, particularly about the ranges. And so when
you get you know, a month, two months, three months
worth of rain over two or three days, you know
it's gonna cause problems. And that's what we've seen unfortunately.
But the good news is that at least the rain
has ended, or you know, the meaningful anyway, maybe some

(01:58):
leftover showers, but yeah, thankfully the worst is behind in
terms of rainfall. Those rivers are still remaining high. Will
take a while to proceed, but generally speaking, we are
going to be pivoting toward more settled weather as we
work away over the next few days and especially the
next couple of weeks, we should see a return to
high pressure moving overhead as we work away into next

(02:19):
week and especially the middle part of the month, so
more settled weather will be the theme for a good
part of the country for this I guess for the
middle part of July onward. Yes, there'll be some bouts
of rain, but these heavy rain events that we've seen
across eastern areas of the North and South Island probably
not going to see many more because of the effects

(02:39):
of Al Nino as he moved through August and especially springtime.

Speaker 2 (02:45):
Yeah, we had Adam mcmanoway, who has Schoolhouse Dearies with us,
potting a round just out of kai Kura on the
show during the weekend. As he said, he went to
bed sort of thinking that the information was and this
was standed pretty dastardly in its own right, one hundred
and eighty to two hundred mills, but his system looked
like it could probably handle that.

Speaker 1 (03:02):
And then he gets a three hundred milion done. Not
a much you can do.

Speaker 3 (03:06):
Yeah, wow, that is Yeah. Look, it's really interesting because
these areas that are getting the heavy rainfall eastern parts
of both islands. Those are the same areas that as
we go into springtime, so again we're going farther out.
Of course, those are the same areas where the odds
or the prospect for dryness, they're elevated because of an

(03:29):
emerging very strong or so called super al Nino. Eventually,
what we're going to see by the time we get
later into winter, August and especially spring, we're going to
see more in the way of westerlies. And it's those
west winds that bring rain for the west coast of
the South Island, ain't even the Northound, but especially South Island. Yeah,

(03:50):
and they could see. Look, so while this heavy rain
has occurred, it's going to switch sides of the island.
For those same west winds are dry winds for those
eastern areas, so it will dry and hopefully this week
will be a step in the right direction.

Speaker 2 (04:03):
Yeah, five ten and Wellington on Saturday. What's it going
to be like then?

Speaker 3 (04:08):
Breathing? Maybe a few showers around, but the wind will
be easy, thankfully. But yeah, just dressed warmly. Probably a
couple of showers, but I don't see any downpours or
heavy rainfall for the big game. But yeah, you just
gotta dress warm, Okay.

Speaker 1 (04:21):
Chris, you enjoy a long weekend that is Chris Brandolino.

Speaker 2 (04:24):
There Earth Science New Zealand with it as always, very
astute eye on the weather and what to look out for.

Speaker 1 (04:30):
Eastern North Island.

Speaker 2 (04:31):
Hawks Bays through to Tyre Rafferty. Keep an eye on
the heavy rain through there.