September 8, 2026 • 6 mins
The chief executive of Silver Fern Farms takes an opposing view to Mark de Lautour when it comes to Paris. Plus, we discuss the prospects for red meat this season as margins tighten.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
So you've heard from Mark Delatour as we talk to
dairy with the chief executive of Open Country Dairy, our
second biggest dairy company in the country. Well, here's the bloke,
and let's change tact and talk red meat. Here's the
bloke who's running the biggest red meat processor in the country,
Silver Fern Farms. His name is Dan Bolton, and like Mark,
(00:20):
who's sitting in the main street of New Plymouth, Dan,
today we find you on the road at Queenstown Airport
waiting to jump on a plane. Thanks for some of
your time.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
Good afternoon, Jamie. Great to be on the show.
Speaker 1 (00:32):
Well, great to have you on the show. Yesterday, Beef
and Lamb New Zealand came out with their new season outlook,
and the take-home message was Farmgate red meat prices forecast
to remain strong, but margins will tighten. And we know
that on-farm costs are a real issue for farmers, but
we are going to see a bit of a drop-off,
(00:53):
or are we, in schedule prices this season?
Speaker 2 (00:57):
Yeah, I mean, great report that came out yesterday, and
I think fundamentally farmers should take away that global market
prices will remain favourable. I think structurally we've seen a
shift in global production, which works in our favour here,
but I think where we are right now with pricing,
we're going to see some easing, particularly in sheep meats,
between now and the new season, and I think the
(01:17):
report picked that up around a $ 10 opening price, which
aligns with our view as well.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
Mind you, $ 10 for a lamb, if you can kill
a lamb at 20 kilos, $ 200 isn't bad.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
Yeah, I think that's the key point. This is not
a market collapse. This is about taking a little bit
of heat out of that schedule price because a lot
of that's been procurement driven. I think lamb's schedule is
around $ 12 right now. So settling around $ 10, I think
farmers should be pretty happy if they're using that for
their budget going into the new season. But I think, Jamie,
there is some real risk in the market, but I
still think the global demand for protein, particularly what we
(01:53):
produce here in New Zealand, will still be able to
keep prices elevated over the long term. But You know,
we've got quite a bit of softening in the UK
and Europe at the moment. There's quite a bit of
inventory around. We've got safeguard investigations on lamb imports into
the US. We've got currency, New Zealand dollar strengthening. So
those are things we're used to navigating. I just, you know,
(02:14):
farmers shouldn't panic, but it's just a little bit of
a challenge out there. But I think overall demand is
going to be strong.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
Hey, Mark Delatorre had a bit of a swipe, and
I know you haven't heard his interview, at Damien O'Connor
for suggesting we could, and the Prime Minister for that matter,
for suggesting we could be shut out of some of
those lucrative UK and European markets if we were to
pull out of the Paris Agreement. I take it that
you would concur with Damien and the Prime Minister on
(02:41):
that one?
Speaker 2 (02:42):
Yeah, market access and customer access, slightly different things, are
really important and we can't take that for granted. And
I think, you know, the Paris Accord and our commitment
to that is really important to our strategic customers there.
I mean, if you look at what's happening up in
the European market right now, they've just come out with
a European livestock policy. That could be actually a market
(03:03):
access barrier for us. or we can work hard with
them and make sure that we've got equivalency around what
they're wanting so we can continue to access those markets. So,
you know, the market access things continue to develop. But
I think when you fundamentally look at it, how we
farm here in New Zealand is actually really aligned with
what they are wanting. But there will have to be changes.
(03:24):
And I think stepping out of the Paris Accord would
be a big disadvantage to New Zealand's market access in
the long term, particularly in Europe, where our sales have
doubled into that market and will be strong in the
years to come. So we don't want to put barriers
up in front of us.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
Hey, Beef and Lamb New Zealand, we're talking about margins
tightening and we are coming off record highs. So we
need to put this into some form of perspective, obviously.
They mentioned a couple of things. The Super El Nino,
and I know some people are sick of hearing about
something that's not fully here yet. And the other one
is the exchange rate, because I know that Rabobank and
(03:58):
their agribusiness outlook for September talked about the dollar going
to 61 US cents. And I know that the dairy industry,
Dan Bolton from Silver Fern Farms, has a hedging policy.
Do you guys in the meat industry?
Speaker 2 (04:14):
Yeah, we do. We take a hedging policy, but it's
normally not that far in advance. So we might go
out a couple of months at a max. And if
we go out too far and the currency works against us,
we can be out of the money really quickly. So
we play a relatively short game. But you're right, currency
has a big impact on what we can end up
passing back to farmers. And we've been very fortunate with
(04:36):
the weak currency. New Zealand dollar as an exporter. But
if it goes to 61 cents, that's still in a
relatively favourable position of where it's been previously. But it
is something we're watching and we're probably thinking it's around
that sort of 60, 61 as we look out the
next 12 months as well, which I think is manageable
in our environment.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
You talked about average farm gate prices for lamb and
Beef in New Zealand have thrown a number around at
a decrease of 8%. beef cattle prices decreasing 4.5%. Once again,
referencing that Rabobank report, there's some question marks over how
strong that trim beef market is in the US. What
(05:16):
are you hearing? What are you seeing?
Speaker 2 (05:19):
Well, I look at the big beef producing areas such
as South America and the US. You know, South America
is in retraction at the moment, and the U.S. is
going to be a number of years before they recover.
And in the meantime, U.S. consumers particularly are going to
continue to consume burgers, right? So I think fundamentally pricing
is going to be good. We're seeing a little bit
of disruption now as Australian and Brazil volume floods into
(05:43):
the U.S. because they can't access China. But give it
another month, China is going to be reopened to them,
and I think we'll see prices rise. stabilise and potentially
even lift again back into the US market. So I
think what we're seeing in the volatility in grinding prices
is just as protein flows are switching geographies because of
some of the tariffs and the trade barriers that are
(06:04):
playing out at the moment. But overall, I think grinding
prices are going to be favourable for some years to come.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
And on that positive note, we'll leave you. Dan Bolton,
Chief Executive of Silverfin Farms. Thanks for some of your
time from Queenstown Airport. Get through security and catch that plane.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
Yeah, thanks, Sammy. Great to talk.
So you've heard from Mark Delatour as we talk to
dairy with the chief executive of Open Country Dairy, our
second biggest dairy company in the country. Well, here's the bloke,
and let's change tact and talk red meat. Here's the
bloke who's running the biggest red meat processor in the country,
Silver Fern Farms. His name is Dan Bolton, and like Mark,
(00:20):
who's sitting in the main street of New Plymouth, Dan,
today we find you on the road at Queenstown Airport
waiting to jump on a plane. Thanks for some of
your time.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
Good afternoon, Jamie. Great to be on the show.
Speaker 1 (00:32):
Well, great to have you on the show. Yesterday, Beef
and Lamb New Zealand came out with their new season outlook,
and the take-home message was Farmgate red meat prices forecast
to remain strong, but margins will tighten. And we know
that on-farm costs are a real issue for farmers, but
we are going to see a bit of a drop-off,
(00:53):
or are we, in schedule prices this season?
Speaker 2 (00:57):
Yeah, I mean, great report that came out yesterday, and
I think fundamentally farmers should take away that global market
prices will remain favourable. I think structurally we've seen a
shift in global production, which works in our favour here,
but I think where we are right now with pricing,
we're going to see some easing, particularly in sheep meats,
between now and the new season, and I think the
(01:17):
report picked that up around a $ 10 opening price, which
aligns with our view as well.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
Mind you, $ 10 for a lamb, if you can kill
a lamb at 20 kilos, $ 200 isn't bad.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
Yeah, I think that's the key point. This is not
a market collapse. This is about taking a little bit
of heat out of that schedule price because a lot
of that's been procurement driven. I think lamb's schedule is
around $ 12 right now. So settling around $ 10, I think
farmers should be pretty happy if they're using that for
their budget going into the new season. But I think, Jamie,
there is some real risk in the market, but I
still think the global demand for protein, particularly what we
(01:53):
produce here in New Zealand, will still be able to
keep prices elevated over the long term. But You know,
we've got quite a bit of softening in the UK
and Europe at the moment. There's quite a bit of
inventory around. We've got safeguard investigations on lamb imports into
the US. We've got currency, New Zealand dollar strengthening. So
those are things we're used to navigating. I just, you know,
(02:14):
farmers shouldn't panic, but it's just a little bit of
a challenge out there. But I think overall demand is
going to be strong.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
Hey, Mark Delatorre had a bit of a swipe, and
I know you haven't heard his interview, at Damien O'Connor
for suggesting we could, and the Prime Minister for that matter,
for suggesting we could be shut out of some of
those lucrative UK and European markets if we were to
pull out of the Paris Agreement. I take it that
you would concur with Damien and the Prime Minister on
(02:41):
that one?
Speaker 2 (02:42):
Yeah, market access and customer access, slightly different things, are
really important and we can't take that for granted. And
I think, you know, the Paris Accord and our commitment
to that is really important to our strategic customers there.
I mean, if you look at what's happening up in
the European market right now, they've just come out with
a European livestock policy. That could be actually a market
(03:03):
access barrier for us. or we can work hard with
them and make sure that we've got equivalency around what
they're wanting so we can continue to access those markets. So,
you know, the market access things continue to develop. But
I think when you fundamentally look at it, how we
farm here in New Zealand is actually really aligned with
what they are wanting. But there will have to be changes.
(03:24):
And I think stepping out of the Paris Accord would
be a big disadvantage to New Zealand's market access in
the long term, particularly in Europe, where our sales have
doubled into that market and will be strong in the
years to come. So we don't want to put barriers
up in front of us.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
Hey, Beef and Lamb New Zealand, we're talking about margins
tightening and we are coming off record highs. So we
need to put this into some form of perspective, obviously.
They mentioned a couple of things. The Super El Nino,
and I know some people are sick of hearing about
something that's not fully here yet. And the other one
is the exchange rate, because I know that Rabobank and
(03:58):
their agribusiness outlook for September talked about the dollar going
to 61 US cents. And I know that the dairy industry,
Dan Bolton from Silver Fern Farms, has a hedging policy.
Do you guys in the meat industry?
Speaker 2 (04:14):
Yeah, we do. We take a hedging policy, but it's
normally not that far in advance. So we might go
out a couple of months at a max. And if
we go out too far and the currency works against us,
we can be out of the money really quickly. So
we play a relatively short game. But you're right, currency
has a big impact on what we can end up
passing back to farmers. And we've been very fortunate with
(04:36):
the weak currency. New Zealand dollar as an exporter. But
if it goes to 61 cents, that's still in a
relatively favourable position of where it's been previously. But it
is something we're watching and we're probably thinking it's around
that sort of 60, 61 as we look out the
next 12 months as well, which I think is manageable
in our environment.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
You talked about average farm gate prices for lamb and
Beef in New Zealand have thrown a number around at
a decrease of 8%. beef cattle prices decreasing 4.5%. Once again,
referencing that Rabobank report, there's some question marks over how
strong that trim beef market is in the US. What
(05:16):
are you hearing? What are you seeing?
Speaker 2 (05:19):
Well, I look at the big beef producing areas such
as South America and the US. You know, South America
is in retraction at the moment, and the U.S. is
going to be a number of years before they recover.
And in the meantime, U.S. consumers particularly are going to
continue to consume burgers, right? So I think fundamentally pricing
is going to be good. We're seeing a little bit
of disruption now as Australian and Brazil volume floods into
(05:43):
the U.S. because they can't access China. But give it
another month, China is going to be reopened to them,
and I think we'll see prices rise. stabilise and potentially
even lift again back into the US market. So I
think what we're seeing in the volatility in grinding prices
is just as protein flows are switching geographies because of
some of the tariffs and the trade barriers that are
(06:04):
playing out at the moment. But overall, I think grinding
prices are going to be favourable for some years to come.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
And on that positive note, we'll leave you. Dan Bolton,
Chief Executive of Silverfin Farms. Thanks for some of your
time from Queenstown Airport. Get through security and catch that plane.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
Yeah, thanks, Sammy. Great to talk.
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