June 10, 2026 • 7 mins
We catch up with the Director General of MPI, who proudly presented the Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries report this morning at Fieldays.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
So this guy was going to kick off the show,
but he I sorry, I had to drop you to
number two. There. This is Ray Smith, the Director General
of MPI. You come out with some outstanding numbers, Ray Smith,
with the situation and outlook for primary industries. For people
out there or who are listening live on the radio,
(00:20):
summarize those numbers for me.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Well, thanks, Jamie. You look, look, this is the happiest
day of the year for the primary sector because we
just have this outstanding result sixty four billion dollars six
percent growth. You see dairy up five percent, horticulture up
seven and of course our red meat sector that was
struggling a couple of years ago, up fourteen percent. And
if you look at the overall result, we've grown twenty
(00:44):
We've grown twenty percent in the last two years. That's
an extra ten billion dollars nextport earnings that we brought
into the country and that makes a massive difference to
all the things that New Zealanders want to be able
to do.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
Well. We know there's some great numbers out of dairy,
we know there's now some great numbers out of largely
red meat. But wall is starting to pick up its act.
But in some ways. The standout number for me, and
we're going to be talking to Kate Scott from Horticulture
in New Zealand, is the rise and continued rise of horticulture.
Only a few years ago, two or three years ago,
(01:15):
horticulture and forestry were neck and neck. Forestry is unfortunately
going nowhere. Horticulture is up seven and a half percent
to nine billion, Kiwi fruit leading the charge up sixteen
percent to nearly five billion.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
It's a phenomenal result, isn't it. And it just shows
two things. The world wants our fresh products and global
prices are good and is quite tight supplying out of
a range of countries for New Zealand's products. But you're
right to contrast with forestry. I mean, what's going to
happen is the kiwi fruit industry itself will end up
being bigger than the forestry sector. It's almost gone past it.
(01:54):
And if you look at global kiwi fruit, it's probably
about six billion, four point eight billion out of New Zealand.
And even in wine, you know, wine's been a really
tough story for the last for the last year or two,
but we continue to increase our market share worldwide to
seveny on blanc. It's a unique product. People want to
drink it, but prices have been tough. But think about
the apple industry too. You know, they had those massive
(02:16):
cyclones down through the East coast, wiped out a lot
of ulchards, but it's now one point three billion and
great growth in the last year.
Speaker 1 (02:23):
You made special mention this morning in your address. You've
mentioned viticulture. Tough times for wine. We've got a bit
of a grape glutt out there. Arable also under the
pump at the moment, along with our vegetable growers.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
You've got to feel for them, the arable sector. You know,
they've had a shocking run of oversupply, the bad weather,
and we need those arable farmers to be doing your things.
So look, we think that'll come right in the mid term.
Vegetable sector. You know, vegetable sector is large year domestic sector,
and so fuel prices, fertilizer prices, all those input costs
being so high really hurt getting those products to market
(02:58):
for us.
Speaker 1 (02:59):
The other standout figures because you had some wonderful graphs.
Unfortunately graphs don't translate that well to live radio, but
you showed a growth of our primary export and that
was the ups and downs. But this, you know, it
was interesting just looking at some of the historical blips,
the global financial crisis, COVID cyclone, Gabrielle obviously the latest one.
(03:22):
We've had, well, tariffs last year and of course this year,
the Middle East crisis.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
And you can go all the way back to the
fifties with the Korean War, the seventies that you know
a lot of us went through with the royal crisis
from seventy three through to seventy nine.
Speaker 1 (03:36):
Well, you're old enough to remember Carlos star.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
I do remember we he with Thursday was our Cali
Carlos Day at home. And you know, the thing that's
really impressive about the primary sector is that, through you know,
fifty odd years of crisis, we've continued to grow. We've
grown phenomenally actually, and we continue to accelerate our growth rate.
And I think the reason for that, Jamie, is this
New Zealand has a comparative advantage and growing primary products
(04:00):
compared to the rest of the world. We've got great soils,
a moderate climate, plenty of water. Our animals eat outside,
they live outside. We don't have to grow grain to
feed animals. So we've got a relatively much more efficient
system and we are always going to be able to
outcompete and many other countries and producing protein for the world.
Speaker 1 (04:17):
We've had outstanding and growth in the primary sector in
the past two years or seasons, but twenty six twenty seven,
the farming season we're just heading into is likely to
be muted, if that's the quiet right word. By the
pure crisis, the Middle East.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
War, I think two things that the Middle East crisis,
you know, the uncertainty around what's going to happen next there.
We just don't need to see a bomb drop in
the wrong place and actually affect those all supplies into
New Zealand, and we're good for the moment, but that
crisis is not over. And I think the second thing is,
you know, we're heading into this al Nino weather pattern.
Whereas last year we had massive pasture growth, this year
it will flatten out a bit through the warmer months
(04:55):
and we'll see production come off a little bit. So
we're still going to do really well. Deer is going
to be great, red meats gon to be outstanding. Look,
there's a shortage. The United States is at a seventy
year low in supply of red meat, and New Zealand's
filling that spot, and it's filling China and Europe as well.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
How good are fat Americans for us? I shouldn't say that,
should I? But I mean they like to eat. They
love their hamburgers, which is why they're wanting out lean
grinding beef by the way. But the irony is they
are really chasing protein now because of the GLP one
weight loss strokes.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
Well, that's right, that's right. And so you know, with
the growth in people trying to get a bit of
weight off, particularly those of us with a few years
under our belt and taking these weight loss strokes, they
want they want proteins and New Zealand produces very high
value proteins. So they don't want to eat a lot,
but they want to eat a high value protein product
and that's what we produce here in New Zealand.
Speaker 1 (05:45):
I want a cherry pick. I think one more stat
that you're throughout this morning, which was really interesting, great address,
by the way. They should film that and put it
on Netflix. It was that good ray the middle class
in the world. Seventy percent of the middle class people
in the world just down there. Does this bloke realize
that we're on live.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
He just give me his credit card. We're away, Jamiens is.
Speaker 1 (06:08):
That the NPI credit card right, don't want drinks are
on us? Let me cherry pick the last figure seventy
percent of the world's middle class and the next I
don't know how many years will be in the Indo
Pacific region. That's our back door.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
Hey, listen, the world's population is going to grow by
another two billion people between now in twenty fifty and
a lot of those are going to be in India.
And so if you think about the rising, you know,
these countries that we're seen as developing countries, they're growing
in the numbers of people that are just like you
and meat. You know, they want a decent holiday, they
want their kids to do well, and they want to
(06:45):
eat the foods that you and I eat. And so
New Zealand is so well placed and even with climate
related effects, New Zealand will be in a better place
than most countries in the world. So to everyone that's
listening to this in the primary sector, you're in the
right place and just keep doing more of what you're
doing and that the world loves your product.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
Ray Smith, director General of MPI, thanks for your time.
Thanks on behalf of the rest of us for what
the primary sector is doing for this country.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
Yeah, thanks, Jimmy. Don't spend up too much on that card.
You know we're in a bit of pressure in the
public service. Don't you go spending too much.
Speaker 1 (07:15):
Well, I've had some interesting broadcasting moments over thirty two years,
but I think that's the first time a stranger has
come up and interrupted a radio broadcast to give me, well,
give you. I thought he was like one of your starfs.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
This because we're friendly mate in the primary sector.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
So Colin Quigley, if you're out there, I've got your
credit card, mate. Jeezus. Oh well, you live and learn.
There's always a new experience.
So this guy was going to kick off the show,
but he I sorry, I had to drop you to
number two. There. This is Ray Smith, the Director General
of MPI. You come out with some outstanding numbers, Ray Smith,
with the situation and outlook for primary industries. For people
out there or who are listening live on the radio,
(00:20):
summarize those numbers for me.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Well, thanks, Jamie. You look, look, this is the happiest
day of the year for the primary sector because we
just have this outstanding result sixty four billion dollars six
percent growth. You see dairy up five percent, horticulture up
seven and of course our red meat sector that was
struggling a couple of years ago, up fourteen percent. And
if you look at the overall result, we've grown twenty
(00:44):
We've grown twenty percent in the last two years. That's
an extra ten billion dollars nextport earnings that we brought
into the country and that makes a massive difference to
all the things that New Zealanders want to be able
to do.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
Well. We know there's some great numbers out of dairy,
we know there's now some great numbers out of largely
red meat. But wall is starting to pick up its act.
But in some ways. The standout number for me, and
we're going to be talking to Kate Scott from Horticulture
in New Zealand, is the rise and continued rise of horticulture.
Only a few years ago, two or three years ago,
(01:15):
horticulture and forestry were neck and neck. Forestry is unfortunately
going nowhere. Horticulture is up seven and a half percent
to nine billion, Kiwi fruit leading the charge up sixteen
percent to nearly five billion.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
It's a phenomenal result, isn't it. And it just shows
two things. The world wants our fresh products and global
prices are good and is quite tight supplying out of
a range of countries for New Zealand's products. But you're
right to contrast with forestry. I mean, what's going to
happen is the kiwi fruit industry itself will end up
being bigger than the forestry sector. It's almost gone past it.
(01:54):
And if you look at global kiwi fruit, it's probably
about six billion, four point eight billion out of New Zealand.
And even in wine, you know, wine's been a really
tough story for the last for the last year or two,
but we continue to increase our market share worldwide to
seveny on blanc. It's a unique product. People want to
drink it, but prices have been tough. But think about
the apple industry too. You know, they had those massive
(02:16):
cyclones down through the East coast, wiped out a lot
of ulchards, but it's now one point three billion and
great growth in the last year.
Speaker 1 (02:23):
You made special mention this morning in your address. You've
mentioned viticulture. Tough times for wine. We've got a bit
of a grape glutt out there. Arable also under the
pump at the moment, along with our vegetable growers.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
You've got to feel for them, the arable sector. You know,
they've had a shocking run of oversupply, the bad weather,
and we need those arable farmers to be doing your things.
So look, we think that'll come right in the mid term.
Vegetable sector. You know, vegetable sector is large year domestic sector,
and so fuel prices, fertilizer prices, all those input costs
being so high really hurt getting those products to market
(02:58):
for us.
Speaker 1 (02:59):
The other standout figures because you had some wonderful graphs.
Unfortunately graphs don't translate that well to live radio, but
you showed a growth of our primary export and that
was the ups and downs. But this, you know, it
was interesting just looking at some of the historical blips,
the global financial crisis, COVID cyclone, Gabrielle obviously the latest one.
(03:22):
We've had, well, tariffs last year and of course this year,
the Middle East crisis.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
And you can go all the way back to the
fifties with the Korean War, the seventies that you know
a lot of us went through with the royal crisis
from seventy three through to seventy nine.
Speaker 1 (03:36):
Well, you're old enough to remember Carlos star.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
I do remember we he with Thursday was our Cali
Carlos Day at home. And you know, the thing that's
really impressive about the primary sector is that, through you know,
fifty odd years of crisis, we've continued to grow. We've
grown phenomenally actually, and we continue to accelerate our growth rate.
And I think the reason for that, Jamie, is this
New Zealand has a comparative advantage and growing primary products
(04:00):
compared to the rest of the world. We've got great soils,
a moderate climate, plenty of water. Our animals eat outside,
they live outside. We don't have to grow grain to
feed animals. So we've got a relatively much more efficient
system and we are always going to be able to
outcompete and many other countries and producing protein for the world.
Speaker 1 (04:17):
We've had outstanding and growth in the primary sector in
the past two years or seasons, but twenty six twenty seven,
the farming season we're just heading into is likely to
be muted, if that's the quiet right word. By the
pure crisis, the Middle East.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
War, I think two things that the Middle East crisis,
you know, the uncertainty around what's going to happen next there.
We just don't need to see a bomb drop in
the wrong place and actually affect those all supplies into
New Zealand, and we're good for the moment, but that
crisis is not over. And I think the second thing is,
you know, we're heading into this al Nino weather pattern.
Whereas last year we had massive pasture growth, this year
it will flatten out a bit through the warmer months
(04:55):
and we'll see production come off a little bit. So
we're still going to do really well. Deer is going
to be great, red meats gon to be outstanding. Look,
there's a shortage. The United States is at a seventy
year low in supply of red meat, and New Zealand's
filling that spot, and it's filling China and Europe as well.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
How good are fat Americans for us? I shouldn't say that,
should I? But I mean they like to eat. They
love their hamburgers, which is why they're wanting out lean
grinding beef by the way. But the irony is they
are really chasing protein now because of the GLP one
weight loss strokes.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
Well, that's right, that's right. And so you know, with
the growth in people trying to get a bit of
weight off, particularly those of us with a few years
under our belt and taking these weight loss strokes, they
want they want proteins and New Zealand produces very high
value proteins. So they don't want to eat a lot,
but they want to eat a high value protein product
and that's what we produce here in New Zealand.
Speaker 1 (05:45):
I want a cherry pick. I think one more stat
that you're throughout this morning, which was really interesting, great address,
by the way. They should film that and put it
on Netflix. It was that good ray the middle class
in the world. Seventy percent of the middle class people
in the world just down there. Does this bloke realize
that we're on live.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
He just give me his credit card. We're away, Jamiens is.
Speaker 1 (06:08):
That the NPI credit card right, don't want drinks are
on us? Let me cherry pick the last figure seventy
percent of the world's middle class and the next I
don't know how many years will be in the Indo
Pacific region. That's our back door.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
Hey, listen, the world's population is going to grow by
another two billion people between now in twenty fifty and
a lot of those are going to be in India.
And so if you think about the rising, you know,
these countries that we're seen as developing countries, they're growing
in the numbers of people that are just like you
and meat. You know, they want a decent holiday, they
want their kids to do well, and they want to
(06:45):
eat the foods that you and I eat. And so
New Zealand is so well placed and even with climate
related effects, New Zealand will be in a better place
than most countries in the world. So to everyone that's
listening to this in the primary sector, you're in the
right place and just keep doing more of what you're
doing and that the world loves your product.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
Ray Smith, director General of MPI, thanks for your time.
Thanks on behalf of the rest of us for what
the primary sector is doing for this country.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
Yeah, thanks, Jimmy. Don't spend up too much on that card.
You know we're in a bit of pressure in the
public service. Don't you go spending too much.
Speaker 1 (07:15):
Well, I've had some interesting broadcasting moments over thirty two years,
but I think that's the first time a stranger has
come up and interrupted a radio broadcast to give me, well,
give you. I thought he was like one of your starfs.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
This because we're friendly mate in the primary sector.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
So Colin Quigley, if you're out there, I've got your
credit card, mate. Jeezus. Oh well, you live and learn.
There's always a new experience.
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