September 10, 2026 • 6 mins
Earth Sciences New Zealand’s principal scientist and former New Yorker reflects on 9/11. He also discusses the Super El Niño setting record numbers.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Let's kick it off with Earth Sciences New Zealand's Chris Brandolino. Chris,
you were literally at the coalface on 9-11. Good afternoon.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Good afternoon. Yeah, it's really a somber day. Hard to
believe it's been 25 years. We can do the math.
I was 26 years old at the time and watched
that second plane go into the World Trade Center, the
second building, live. At the time, the first plane went
into the first building. World Trade Center was thought to be,
(00:32):
you know, no one really knew what was going on.
No one certainly didn't think it was a, well, at
least publicly, a terrorist attack. You know, maybe some freak accident.
But then when you saw, or when I saw that
second plane go into the other building, it removed all doubt.
And that certainly changed the world, you know.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
Hey, Chris, when you say you saw it live, were
you watching it on telly or were you actually on
the ground? Yeah.
Speaker 2 (00:57):
Oh, no, yeah, I was in Syracuse, New York, which
is about a 50-minute plane ride from New York City. So, yeah,
I was in upstate New York. I was not in
New York City at the time. But, you know, what's weird, Jamie,
and I think I may have mentioned this in years past,
and this may sound a bit, I don't know how
people may interpret this, but for about 15 years after that,
(01:18):
like an honest 15 years after that, even though I
was not in New York City, as I say, I
was a 55-minute plane ride away, I still got freaked
out every time I heard a low-flying aircraft. It was
so bizarre, and I can only imagine how people would
be affected who were actually in New York City and
(01:38):
actually witnessed that and the trauma they would still be
dealing with. So, yeah, that's my little story to that
tragic event. Yeah, my wife, she was a schoolteacher at
the time. and, you know, she basically had us sit
on that and not say anything to the students. They were,
you know, 8, 9 years old, quite young, 10 years old. So,
(02:00):
you know, obviously talking with her, I think we were dating,
we were married at the time. So, yeah, it was, yeah,
so many things go through your mind when you reflect back,
and it doesn't seem like a quarter century, but it was.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
Changed the world forever. Let's move on to the Super
El Nino. Yeah. This is setting. I saw an interesting interview.
I think it might have been with some climate expert
on 3 News or something last night. I just flicked
past it. But very sober, sobering reading or listening around
the numbers. We're already setting records.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
Yeah, look, this is in terms of where we are.
So El Nino has a life cycle, right? It begins,
it strengthens, it matures. it decays, right? That's the arc
of the life cycle. And where we are in that arc,
we're in the strengthening phase. We haven't reached the peak.
And when you look at where we are in its
life cycle or in its arc, it's beating anything, you know,
(02:57):
before that. So, you know, I was just reading this
post from NOAA in the United States, and they're giving
it a 75% chance that this will be the strongest
El Nino event ever recorded. So a three out of
four chance. So that means the 25% chance it doesn't
reach all-time record intensity. But even if it doesn't, even
(03:19):
if that quote-unquote good scenario, that 25% unlikely scenario, even
if that were to occur, it's still going to be
comparable on par with the historically strongest events ever. So
at the very minimum, it'll be on par or be
comparable to the strongest events we've seen in modern history.
(03:39):
Going back, you know, 50, 100 years, whatever. And then
a more likely scenario is that it beats that out.
So those are your two ranges, your two endpoints. And
we're already seeing the effects. I know some people are like, well,
it's been raining in Hawke's Bay or it's been raining
in Auckland. Where's El Nino? Again, it's a background thing.
This is not a storm you see coming from the horizon.
But we are seeing, I'm just looking at rainfall for
(04:01):
the past 15 days, two weeks, down across the South Island.
And it's blue on the map. It is really wet.
It has been really wet. unusually wet for much of
the southbound. Now, that rain has spilled over to the
eastern part of the southbound, which is actually good news
because one of the things we're thinking is that as
we get deeper into spring, we're going to have to
(04:21):
be mindful of dryness. So that is true for eastern
parts of both islands, in particular the northbound, but not exclusively,
and northern parts of both islands. That's where the greatest
odds for dryness are expected to be. And wind is
a true hallmark of El Nino. We're likely to see
A pretty dry period, Jamie, over the next wee while.
(04:43):
We're going to see, I think, a really strong period
of warm temperatures. If you and I are talking next Friday,
which I hope we are, we're probably going to be
looking down the barrel of a really sharp two- or
three-day period of very warm temperatures with some wind, and
that may increase the fire risk. But those are the
sorts of episodes and things we'll be seeing, probably with
some regularity.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
Okay, just to finish on, and referring back to that
interview I quickly flicked over, they were talking about the
wider global ramifications of El Nino, and things like even
the water level in the Panama Canal and the reduced
flow of ships through there. So it's just, it's all encompassing.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
Look, exactly, look, and... Look, I'll just say this. We
make our outlooks, and I think people know this, but
just to make it for the avoidance of doubt, we're
doing our best to give a really high-quality outlook. But
we're not perfect. If we were, we'd be driving really
nice cars, but we're not. And so, look, if El
Nino doesn't prove to be overly disruptive where you are,
(05:48):
that's awesome. But even if that's the case, to your point,
there will be implications globally because if water levels are
really low in the Panama Canal, that's going to affect shipping.
If there's drought in other areas of the world, that's
going to affect food prices. So whether it's direct or indirect,
we're all going to feel at some level, and some
(06:09):
feel more than others, and others it'll be more of
a mild effect. So let's hope for the mild effect,
of course, but I think there's enough reason to really
have heightened awareness And we'll see what happens. Today, literally,
we just got our hands on new climate data. It
comes out every month on the 11th of each month.
And as soon as the call is done, I'm actually
going to dive into that and see what the messaging
(06:31):
is for the next several months. So, yeah, I hear
the music. I hear Don Henley. So back to you, Jamie.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
Yeah, New York Minute, one of the unofficial anthems of 9-11.
Chris Brandolino, thanks for your reminiscing on 9-11 and the
update on Super El Nino.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
Appreciate it, buddy. Thank you, Jamie.
Let's kick it off with Earth Sciences New Zealand's Chris Brandolino. Chris,
you were literally at the coalface on 9-11. Good afternoon.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Good afternoon. Yeah, it's really a somber day. Hard to
believe it's been 25 years. We can do the math.
I was 26 years old at the time and watched
that second plane go into the World Trade Center, the
second building, live. At the time, the first plane went
into the first building. World Trade Center was thought to be,
(00:32):
you know, no one really knew what was going on.
No one certainly didn't think it was a, well, at
least publicly, a terrorist attack. You know, maybe some freak accident.
But then when you saw, or when I saw that
second plane go into the other building, it removed all doubt.
And that certainly changed the world, you know.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
Hey, Chris, when you say you saw it live, were
you watching it on telly or were you actually on
the ground? Yeah.
Speaker 2 (00:57):
Oh, no, yeah, I was in Syracuse, New York, which
is about a 50-minute plane ride from New York City. So, yeah,
I was in upstate New York. I was not in
New York City at the time. But, you know, what's weird, Jamie,
and I think I may have mentioned this in years past,
and this may sound a bit, I don't know how
people may interpret this, but for about 15 years after that,
(01:18):
like an honest 15 years after that, even though I
was not in New York City, as I say, I
was a 55-minute plane ride away, I still got freaked
out every time I heard a low-flying aircraft. It was
so bizarre, and I can only imagine how people would
be affected who were actually in New York City and
(01:38):
actually witnessed that and the trauma they would still be
dealing with. So, yeah, that's my little story to that
tragic event. Yeah, my wife, she was a schoolteacher at
the time. and, you know, she basically had us sit
on that and not say anything to the students. They were,
you know, 8, 9 years old, quite young, 10 years old. So,
(02:00):
you know, obviously talking with her, I think we were dating,
we were married at the time. So, yeah, it was, yeah,
so many things go through your mind when you reflect back,
and it doesn't seem like a quarter century, but it was.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
Changed the world forever. Let's move on to the Super
El Nino. Yeah. This is setting. I saw an interesting interview.
I think it might have been with some climate expert
on 3 News or something last night. I just flicked
past it. But very sober, sobering reading or listening around
the numbers. We're already setting records.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
Yeah, look, this is in terms of where we are.
So El Nino has a life cycle, right? It begins,
it strengthens, it matures. it decays, right? That's the arc
of the life cycle. And where we are in that arc,
we're in the strengthening phase. We haven't reached the peak.
And when you look at where we are in its
life cycle or in its arc, it's beating anything, you know,
(02:57):
before that. So, you know, I was just reading this
post from NOAA in the United States, and they're giving
it a 75% chance that this will be the strongest
El Nino event ever recorded. So a three out of
four chance. So that means the 25% chance it doesn't
reach all-time record intensity. But even if it doesn't, even
(03:19):
if that quote-unquote good scenario, that 25% unlikely scenario, even
if that were to occur, it's still going to be
comparable on par with the historically strongest events ever. So
at the very minimum, it'll be on par or be
comparable to the strongest events we've seen in modern history.
(03:39):
Going back, you know, 50, 100 years, whatever. And then
a more likely scenario is that it beats that out.
So those are your two ranges, your two endpoints. And
we're already seeing the effects. I know some people are like, well,
it's been raining in Hawke's Bay or it's been raining
in Auckland. Where's El Nino? Again, it's a background thing.
This is not a storm you see coming from the horizon.
But we are seeing, I'm just looking at rainfall for
(04:01):
the past 15 days, two weeks, down across the South Island.
And it's blue on the map. It is really wet.
It has been really wet. unusually wet for much of
the southbound. Now, that rain has spilled over to the
eastern part of the southbound, which is actually good news
because one of the things we're thinking is that as
we get deeper into spring, we're going to have to
(04:21):
be mindful of dryness. So that is true for eastern
parts of both islands, in particular the northbound, but not exclusively,
and northern parts of both islands. That's where the greatest
odds for dryness are expected to be. And wind is
a true hallmark of El Nino. We're likely to see
A pretty dry period, Jamie, over the next wee while.
(04:43):
We're going to see, I think, a really strong period
of warm temperatures. If you and I are talking next Friday,
which I hope we are, we're probably going to be
looking down the barrel of a really sharp two- or
three-day period of very warm temperatures with some wind, and
that may increase the fire risk. But those are the
sorts of episodes and things we'll be seeing, probably with
some regularity.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
Okay, just to finish on, and referring back to that
interview I quickly flicked over, they were talking about the
wider global ramifications of El Nino, and things like even
the water level in the Panama Canal and the reduced
flow of ships through there. So it's just, it's all encompassing.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
Look, exactly, look, and... Look, I'll just say this. We
make our outlooks, and I think people know this, but
just to make it for the avoidance of doubt, we're
doing our best to give a really high-quality outlook. But
we're not perfect. If we were, we'd be driving really
nice cars, but we're not. And so, look, if El
Nino doesn't prove to be overly disruptive where you are,
(05:48):
that's awesome. But even if that's the case, to your point,
there will be implications globally because if water levels are
really low in the Panama Canal, that's going to affect shipping.
If there's drought in other areas of the world, that's
going to affect food prices. So whether it's direct or indirect,
we're all going to feel at some level, and some
(06:09):
feel more than others, and others it'll be more of
a mild effect. So let's hope for the mild effect,
of course, but I think there's enough reason to really
have heightened awareness And we'll see what happens. Today, literally,
we just got our hands on new climate data. It
comes out every month on the 11th of each month.
And as soon as the call is done, I'm actually
going to dive into that and see what the messaging
(06:31):
is for the next several months. So, yeah, I hear
the music. I hear Don Henley. So back to you, Jamie.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
Yeah, New York Minute, one of the unofficial anthems of 9-11.
Chris Brandolino, thanks for your reminiscing on 9-11 and the
update on Super El Nino.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
Appreciate it, buddy. Thank you, Jamie.
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