January 13, 2026 • 7 mins
General manager RaboResearch Australia and NZ, on the impact of weight loss medications on the food and agri-sector
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Very topical in New Zealand at the market. Of course,
is these the weight weight loss injections that you see,
you know, you see those pictures of people, you know,
lifting up their shirt and boom into the old tummy
and it doesn't look that comfortable, and well is it
working and what sort of impact is it having across
all sorts of sectors To look at this, We're joined
(00:21):
by RABO researchers GM Australia and New Zealand, Stephan Vogel
and Stephan welcome And apparently if I'm on the old
weight loss injection the golp ones of this world, I'm
contributing to a global change in eating habits.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
This is big research, absolutely, Hamish, thanks for having me
and happy New Year. And what is a better time
to talk about weight loss than early January. So we
all have in mind that we're gonna go for that
run and we're gonna eat healthy and it might go
overboard in a week or two. That good intentions. So
that jlt ones is actually the easy route that we
(00:59):
see quite a bit of people in many parts of
the world taking these days. And obviously it is a
US driven phenomenon there, it's already out in the market
for quite a while, and we see consumers to a
level of ten twelve percent of the population consuming it.
And if you think about a US population well over
three hundred million people, that's thirty million people using it.
(01:22):
You're not using it NonStop, so we see a bit
of waves. People use it for a few weeks and months,
lose some weight, take it off, and then after a
few months when these kilos come back, well we're going
to go back on the drugs. So you see a
little bit of not consistent us all the time. But
it is one of the big ones also for the
farmer industry that they're looking for to develop further because
(01:43):
one of the hurdles right now is obviously people need
to give themselves a shot, which isn't appealing to as
many people, but a lots of them are already doing it.
So the idea might be that we might have a
pill down the road that makes it even more appealing
to more people. But in the food industry, it is
big trends that is changing North American market, it's changing
European market, it's changing Asian markets. In Australia, we're a
(02:05):
bit of ahead of a New Zealand even we have
also here about two percent of the population using it.
And in New Zealand some of the drugs were approved
already for weight loss for a while, and then in
March twenty twenty five also drugs were approved for the
consumers who don't get the prescription for weight loss but
actually or sorry for diabetes, is what I wanted to say. Now, actually,
(02:28):
since March twenty five ols in New Zealand you have
it for weight loss approved and people have to pay themselves.
It costs somewhere four hundred and fifty to probably six
hundred dollars a month. But we see a rising amount
of people also in New Zealand using it.
Speaker 1 (02:41):
This is a phenomenal number. This here where those with
just at least one person on what I call the
JAB the injection per household in the US, their grocery
spending reduced by approximately six percent within six months of
the adoption of this practice.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
I mean huge, it's huge, and that's what the food
industry is preparing for because it's not only people are
spending less, and why are you spending less? Because you
are graving less, so you're eating less of those salty chips.
Those sweet little treats that you pop in on the route.
But you also see that the overall hunger is reduced.
(03:23):
But as you said, it's a household phenomenon because imagine
a dinner and one of us has the jab and
all others need to play somehow par we're not eating burgers,
three of us and the first one eats a healthy salad.
So it's kind of as soon as one is on,
usually the diet for the whole household changes a little bit.
And that's what we see in the grocery basket changing.
(03:44):
So with that, if you look at the grocery basket,
you see some winners and you see some losers. The
calorie dense products are the losers. The high fat content
products and sugar ridge products are the losers. So talking
salty chips and all these kind of unhealthy snacks, talking
sodas and sweet bakery things, they're all on the heavy decline.
(04:07):
The winners are on the protein side. And why is
that Because in not only losing fat when you take
these these weight loss drugs, but you're also losing muscle,
and to counter the muscle loss, people need to consume
more proteins. So high dairy protein products are a bit
on the winning side. Healthy fresh produce are on the
winning side. But overall it is a trend that changes
(04:30):
the food industry around the world.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
I suppose if we were looking at very positively, I mean,
at least the winners are the good things.
Speaker 2 (04:39):
Yeah, that's how well, And that's kind of what actually
when we did the analysis here with our global team,
we said, it's not bringing completely new trends. It's actually
reinforcing and strengthening some of the trends that we all know.
But on the other side, look into North America. We
just seen that the food pyramid was turned upside down
by the Health administration over there, saying now that fat
(05:03):
and meat needs to be on top and the whole
drain needs to be on the bottom, which was very
different up until recently. So with that the changes are
not only coming from the weight loss drugs, but in
some parts of the world also now the administration is
trying to tell people what to eat and what not
to eat in a way that is different from the past.
But for this I think the winners are on the
(05:24):
protein side, which is good. What I would have hoped
for is also that we see some of the meat
really winning because you could say, well, chicken, beef, pork,
all of that has protein. We see it declining somewhere
in that six percent range in the studies as well.
That is the average of consumers reducing their grocery spend.
So it's not a real winner, it's not a real
(05:44):
loser in the mix. But obviously with people consuming less,
there may be also consuming a little less of that beef.
So with that, I think for us in New Zealand,
it's early stages locally, but that the destination markets and
the food industry and the destination markets are changing already rapidly,
and that's kind of where we also need to keep
a close eye on. And the dairy industry might actually
(06:06):
win from that if we serve the right products.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
Yeah, with these injections, are people changing their buying habits,
their shopping supermarket habits because it's in keeping with what
they're told to do? Or is it the effect of it?
Is it, you know, the suppression of the appetite or
taste changes? What's actually driving that.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
Well, And we think it is really the taste changes
and also how they crave for some of the foods.
So with that, that's why when you early said well
there is a change, actually six months later still noticeable.
When people have taken the medication for the first time.
Six months later, you see it still. If I tell
you you need to do this, very often people forget
(06:53):
about it after a week and two and three. So
with that, I think it's really that the taste is changing,
the appetite is changing of those who are using the drugs,
and that's also what changes in the basket. However, obviously
also people then feel the need for more protein, so
they're deliberately moving over into that basket, and the fresh
(07:13):
produce is something obviously a healthy diet somehow fits into
that lifestyle. So that might actually be a bit of
a not only the taste where it wins, but also
the common sense when you take a jab and you think,
well maybe I should eat a little bit more of
food and veggies in my diet.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
Okay, winners, losers, some negatives and positives right across the board.
Thank you very much. That as Rubber Research as GM
Australia insied Stefan Vogel with us here on the country
Very topical in New Zealand at the market. Of course,
is these the weight weight loss injections that you see,
you know, you see those pictures of people, you know,
lifting up their shirt and boom into the old tummy
and it doesn't look that comfortable, and well is it
working and what sort of impact is it having across
all sorts of sectors To look at this, We're joined
(00:21):
by RABO researchers GM Australia and New Zealand, Stephan Vogel
and Stephan welcome And apparently if I'm on the old
weight loss injection the golp ones of this world, I'm
contributing to a global change in eating habits.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
This is big research, absolutely, Hamish, thanks for having me
and happy New Year. And what is a better time
to talk about weight loss than early January. So we
all have in mind that we're gonna go for that
run and we're gonna eat healthy and it might go
overboard in a week or two. That good intentions. So
that jlt ones is actually the easy route that we
(00:59):
see quite a bit of people in many parts of
the world taking these days. And obviously it is a
US driven phenomenon there, it's already out in the market
for quite a while, and we see consumers to a
level of ten twelve percent of the population consuming it.
And if you think about a US population well over
three hundred million people, that's thirty million people using it.
(01:22):
You're not using it NonStop, so we see a bit
of waves. People use it for a few weeks and months,
lose some weight, take it off, and then after a
few months when these kilos come back, well we're going
to go back on the drugs. So you see a
little bit of not consistent us all the time. But
it is one of the big ones also for the
farmer industry that they're looking for to develop further because
(01:43):
one of the hurdles right now is obviously people need
to give themselves a shot, which isn't appealing to as
many people, but a lots of them are already doing it.
So the idea might be that we might have a
pill down the road that makes it even more appealing
to more people. But in the food industry, it is
big trends that is changing North American market, it's changing
European market, it's changing Asian markets. In Australia, we're a
(02:05):
bit of ahead of a New Zealand even we have
also here about two percent of the population using it.
And in New Zealand some of the drugs were approved
already for weight loss for a while, and then in
March twenty twenty five also drugs were approved for the
consumers who don't get the prescription for weight loss but
actually or sorry for diabetes, is what I wanted to say. Now, actually,
(02:28):
since March twenty five ols in New Zealand you have
it for weight loss approved and people have to pay themselves.
It costs somewhere four hundred and fifty to probably six
hundred dollars a month. But we see a rising amount
of people also in New Zealand using it.
Speaker 1 (02:41):
This is a phenomenal number. This here where those with
just at least one person on what I call the
JAB the injection per household in the US, their grocery
spending reduced by approximately six percent within six months of
the adoption of this practice.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
I mean huge, it's huge, and that's what the food
industry is preparing for because it's not only people are
spending less, and why are you spending less? Because you
are graving less, so you're eating less of those salty chips.
Those sweet little treats that you pop in on the route.
But you also see that the overall hunger is reduced.
(03:23):
But as you said, it's a household phenomenon because imagine
a dinner and one of us has the jab and
all others need to play somehow par we're not eating burgers,
three of us and the first one eats a healthy salad.
So it's kind of as soon as one is on,
usually the diet for the whole household changes a little bit.
And that's what we see in the grocery basket changing.
(03:44):
So with that, if you look at the grocery basket,
you see some winners and you see some losers. The
calorie dense products are the losers. The high fat content
products and sugar ridge products are the losers. So talking
salty chips and all these kind of unhealthy snacks, talking
sodas and sweet bakery things, they're all on the heavy decline.
(04:07):
The winners are on the protein side. And why is
that Because in not only losing fat when you take
these these weight loss drugs, but you're also losing muscle,
and to counter the muscle loss, people need to consume
more proteins. So high dairy protein products are a bit
on the winning side. Healthy fresh produce are on the
winning side. But overall it is a trend that changes
(04:30):
the food industry around the world.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
I suppose if we were looking at very positively, I mean,
at least the winners are the good things.
Speaker 2 (04:39):
Yeah, that's how well, And that's kind of what actually
when we did the analysis here with our global team,
we said, it's not bringing completely new trends. It's actually
reinforcing and strengthening some of the trends that we all know.
But on the other side, look into North America. We
just seen that the food pyramid was turned upside down
by the Health administration over there, saying now that fat
(05:03):
and meat needs to be on top and the whole
drain needs to be on the bottom, which was very
different up until recently. So with that the changes are
not only coming from the weight loss drugs, but in
some parts of the world also now the administration is
trying to tell people what to eat and what not
to eat in a way that is different from the past.
But for this I think the winners are on the
(05:24):
protein side, which is good. What I would have hoped
for is also that we see some of the meat
really winning because you could say, well, chicken, beef, pork,
all of that has protein. We see it declining somewhere
in that six percent range in the studies as well.
That is the average of consumers reducing their grocery spend.
So it's not a real winner, it's not a real
(05:44):
loser in the mix. But obviously with people consuming less,
there may be also consuming a little less of that beef.
So with that, I think for us in New Zealand,
it's early stages locally, but that the destination markets and
the food industry and the destination markets are changing already rapidly,
and that's kind of where we also need to keep
a close eye on. And the dairy industry might actually
(06:06):
win from that if we serve the right products.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
Yeah, with these injections, are people changing their buying habits,
their shopping supermarket habits because it's in keeping with what
they're told to do? Or is it the effect of it?
Is it, you know, the suppression of the appetite or
taste changes? What's actually driving that.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
Well, And we think it is really the taste changes
and also how they crave for some of the foods.
So with that, that's why when you early said well
there is a change, actually six months later still noticeable.
When people have taken the medication for the first time.
Six months later, you see it still. If I tell
you you need to do this, very often people forget
(06:53):
about it after a week and two and three. So
with that, I think it's really that the taste is changing,
the appetite is changing of those who are using the drugs,
and that's also what changes in the basket. However, obviously
also people then feel the need for more protein, so
they're deliberately moving over into that basket, and the fresh
(07:13):
produce is something obviously a healthy diet somehow fits into
that lifestyle. So that might actually be a bit of
a not only the taste where it wins, but also
the common sense when you take a jab and you think,
well maybe I should eat a little bit more of
food and veggies in my diet.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
Okay, winners, losers, some negatives and positives right across the board.
Thank you very much. That as Rubber Research as GM
Australia insied Stefan Vogel with us here on the country
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