September 13, 2026 • 6 mins
The president of Federated Farmers says profitability is the highest it’s been in a decade, but farmers worry whether the good times will hold. Federated Farmers’ latest Confidence Survey shows 72% of farmers are making a profit, with fewer than one in 20 making a loss.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
But kicking off the show, President of Federated Farmers, Colin Hurst.
And in your latest Federated Farmers Confidence Survey, Colin, 72%
of farmers are making a profit with fewer than 1
in 20 making a loss. But farmers are worried whether
the good times will last. Good afternoon.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Good afternoon, Jamie. Yeah, no, they certainly are concerned about
the good times last. Yeah, it's concerning about the rise in...
some of our costs like fuel, feed and freight and
insurance and that type of thing. So, yeah, looking forward,
we're just keeping a close eye on those things and
we're seeing a bit of a drop in confidence going forward.
(00:40):
But certainly, currently, it's never been better.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Well, the prices have never been better. Dairy, sheep and
beef farmers are getting strong returns. We'll come back to
the likes of the arable farmers who are having a
bit of a battle at the moment. The interesting one
is most concern about the year ahead is actually coming
from the dairy farmers.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
Yeah, it is, Jamie. And you've got to remember when
we undertook this survey, it was mid-July through to the
end of the month, and that was exactly when Fonterra
announced their 50 cent drop in the milk price. So,
of course, it's going to be very focused on dairy
farmers undertaking the survey.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
And since then, we've had two or three positive GDT
auctions in a row. So, Maybe that's all right. But
as you quite rightly pointed out, we've got fuel and fertiliser,
the Middle East crisis. You've got rates, local body rates,
that is, not to mention interest rates. Everything's going up.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
Yeah, you're right about that, Jamie. So also when we
started the survey yesterday, The OCR went up, so that
was increasing interest rates. And then also the inflation rate
was up to 4.1%. So all these sort of things transpired.
But you are correct, the GDT auctions had a bit
of a lift. So we're looking forward to the next
one of them, so to see how that goes for
(02:00):
dairy farming.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
Yeah, farmers' top three concerns were, unsurprisingly, rising input costs
and on-farm inflation at 33%. Coming in at second place...
was the election and domestic politics, and I guess we
can add in the result of an election and local
body politics, and then there's regulation, compliance, and red tape. Interestingly,
(02:26):
worries about commodity prices and weather, especially when we've got
a super El Nino just around the corner, they're well
back at 12% and 11%. Yeah, that's right, Jamie.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
So, yeah, the key one is compliance costs. You know,
that's the top priority we want the government to look at,
or this is what the farmers in the survey indicated,
followed by business and economic environments. We want that ramped up.
But also the other one was government fiscal policy. So
that's something we want the government to be responsible about
their spending and all that type of thing. But you're right,
(02:59):
the LNO now is just around the corner or it's
supposed to be affecting us. I don't think it's actually
hit too much yet. From what I can see, it's
still early in the season. But it's just around the corner,
and hopefully it's not going to be as bad as
the pundits are making.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
I was looking at a soil moisture deficit map or
just a soil moisture map, and I'm going to talk
to Phil Duncan about this. It was on his Weather
Watch site, and areas where you are, Canterbury, for instance,
which is right in the firing line for the Super
El Nino, you're above average in soil moisture.
Speaker 2 (03:30):
Well, certainly in our farm, I've never seen it so wet.
We've got water lying in the paddocks still. And we're
on the east coast of the South Island, and typically
that's one of the areas that we would expect to
be impacted by these types of weather events. But anyway,
we'll get it if we do, Jamie. We'll just manage
the season as we need to appropriately as it comes along.
Speaker 1 (03:52):
Now, you were predominantly an arable farmer. I think, am
I right in saying that, Colin? You've just recently bought
a dairy farm to diversify. This is a bit of
a sad stat. Only one in five arable farmers report
making a profit.
Speaker 2 (04:08):
Yeah, that's pretty sad, Jamie. The arable sector is in
a bit of a dire straits. But quite often when
there's the depths of these types of situations, it can
turn around reasonably quickly. And certainly a lot of our
arable farmers in Canterbury have got good irrigation systems. And
we're suppliers of feed to the livestock sector. So that's
(04:29):
the seed and feed types of things we all grow.
So there could be good opportunities around the corner, certainly
if we're going to have demand for feed.
Speaker 1 (04:37):
Well, that's the positive side of it. The negative side
of it, of all the farming systems, I think the
arable farmers are the most at risk from the likes
of fuel and fertiliser prices.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
Oh, yeah, fertiliser's a big one, and fuel. Certainly, I
know on our farm, that was a significant impact, what
it is going forward for the fertiliser for the spring.
And certainly fuel, when we established a lot of our
crops in the autumn, certainly the fuel bill was getting
jacked up there, Jamie. But anyway, our family made a
decision to invest in another enterprise, so we're hopefully going
(05:12):
to get the best of all worlds.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
Well, it's spreading the risk, isn't it? Diversification. How is
the dairy farm going? Because this is your first season.
Speaker 2 (05:20):
First season, I think we're due for our first milk
check tomorrow, so we're looking forward to that. So we
might be able to reduce the overdraft to a To
a small amount.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
Have you darkened the door of the milking shed yet, Colin?
Have you put the cups on?
Speaker 2 (05:35):
No, I haven't put the cups on, but certainly we've
employed a contract milker, and that's one of my ambitions
to get in there and learn how to undertake this.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
I thought you were going to say your ambition was
to never have to go in there and put the
cups on and get shat upon by a cow.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
Oh, no, no, definitely keen to be involved, so... when
I'm representing farmers I need to represent them all and
I need to understand the issues so this is just.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
One of them Alright, hey Colin, Colin Hurst out of Waimate,
you're in Waimate aren't you?
Speaker 2 (06:06):
Yep, we're on State Highway 1 and we're actually at
Makiki of all places Oh where they make the chips
That's right, our farm is on either side of the township.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
Do you grow spuds for the chip factory?
Speaker 2 (06:18):
We have in the past with quite often leased land
for the bleaker family to grow potatoes. Haven't in recent years,
but yeah. No, it's a good enterprise there.
Speaker 1 (06:26):
Yeah, it is indeed. Wonderful chaps. Hey, thank you very
much for your time.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
Thanks, Jamie.
Speaker 1 (06:31):
Yep, good on you. Colin Hurst there, President of Federated Farmers.
But kicking off the show, President of Federated Farmers, Colin Hurst.
And in your latest Federated Farmers Confidence Survey, Colin, 72%
of farmers are making a profit with fewer than 1
in 20 making a loss. But farmers are worried whether
the good times will last. Good afternoon.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Good afternoon, Jamie. Yeah, no, they certainly are concerned about
the good times last. Yeah, it's concerning about the rise in...
some of our costs like fuel, feed and freight and
insurance and that type of thing. So, yeah, looking forward,
we're just keeping a close eye on those things and
we're seeing a bit of a drop in confidence going forward.
(00:40):
But certainly, currently, it's never been better.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Well, the prices have never been better. Dairy, sheep and
beef farmers are getting strong returns. We'll come back to
the likes of the arable farmers who are having a
bit of a battle at the moment. The interesting one
is most concern about the year ahead is actually coming
from the dairy farmers.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
Yeah, it is, Jamie. And you've got to remember when
we undertook this survey, it was mid-July through to the
end of the month, and that was exactly when Fonterra
announced their 50 cent drop in the milk price. So,
of course, it's going to be very focused on dairy
farmers undertaking the survey.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
And since then, we've had two or three positive GDT
auctions in a row. So, Maybe that's all right. But
as you quite rightly pointed out, we've got fuel and fertiliser,
the Middle East crisis. You've got rates, local body rates,
that is, not to mention interest rates. Everything's going up.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
Yeah, you're right about that, Jamie. So also when we
started the survey yesterday, The OCR went up, so that
was increasing interest rates. And then also the inflation rate
was up to 4.1%. So all these sort of things transpired.
But you are correct, the GDT auctions had a bit
of a lift. So we're looking forward to the next
one of them, so to see how that goes for
(02:00):
dairy farming.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
Yeah, farmers' top three concerns were, unsurprisingly, rising input costs
and on-farm inflation at 33%. Coming in at second place...
was the election and domestic politics, and I guess we
can add in the result of an election and local
body politics, and then there's regulation, compliance, and red tape. Interestingly,
(02:26):
worries about commodity prices and weather, especially when we've got
a super El Nino just around the corner, they're well
back at 12% and 11%. Yeah, that's right, Jamie.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
So, yeah, the key one is compliance costs. You know,
that's the top priority we want the government to look at,
or this is what the farmers in the survey indicated,
followed by business and economic environments. We want that ramped up.
But also the other one was government fiscal policy. So
that's something we want the government to be responsible about
their spending and all that type of thing. But you're right,
(02:59):
the LNO now is just around the corner or it's
supposed to be affecting us. I don't think it's actually
hit too much yet. From what I can see, it's
still early in the season. But it's just around the corner,
and hopefully it's not going to be as bad as
the pundits are making.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
I was looking at a soil moisture deficit map or
just a soil moisture map, and I'm going to talk
to Phil Duncan about this. It was on his Weather
Watch site, and areas where you are, Canterbury, for instance,
which is right in the firing line for the Super
El Nino, you're above average in soil moisture.
Speaker 2 (03:30):
Well, certainly in our farm, I've never seen it so wet.
We've got water lying in the paddocks still. And we're
on the east coast of the South Island, and typically
that's one of the areas that we would expect to
be impacted by these types of weather events. But anyway,
we'll get it if we do, Jamie. We'll just manage
the season as we need to appropriately as it comes along.
Speaker 1 (03:52):
Now, you were predominantly an arable farmer. I think, am
I right in saying that, Colin? You've just recently bought
a dairy farm to diversify. This is a bit of
a sad stat. Only one in five arable farmers report
making a profit.
Speaker 2 (04:08):
Yeah, that's pretty sad, Jamie. The arable sector is in
a bit of a dire straits. But quite often when
there's the depths of these types of situations, it can
turn around reasonably quickly. And certainly a lot of our
arable farmers in Canterbury have got good irrigation systems. And
we're suppliers of feed to the livestock sector. So that's
(04:29):
the seed and feed types of things we all grow.
So there could be good opportunities around the corner, certainly
if we're going to have demand for feed.
Speaker 1 (04:37):
Well, that's the positive side of it. The negative side
of it, of all the farming systems, I think the
arable farmers are the most at risk from the likes
of fuel and fertiliser prices.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
Oh, yeah, fertiliser's a big one, and fuel. Certainly, I
know on our farm, that was a significant impact, what
it is going forward for the fertiliser for the spring.
And certainly fuel, when we established a lot of our
crops in the autumn, certainly the fuel bill was getting
jacked up there, Jamie. But anyway, our family made a
decision to invest in another enterprise, so we're hopefully going
(05:12):
to get the best of all worlds.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
Well, it's spreading the risk, isn't it? Diversification. How is
the dairy farm going? Because this is your first season.
Speaker 2 (05:20):
First season, I think we're due for our first milk
check tomorrow, so we're looking forward to that. So we
might be able to reduce the overdraft to a To
a small amount.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
Have you darkened the door of the milking shed yet, Colin?
Have you put the cups on?
Speaker 2 (05:35):
No, I haven't put the cups on, but certainly we've
employed a contract milker, and that's one of my ambitions
to get in there and learn how to undertake this.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
I thought you were going to say your ambition was
to never have to go in there and put the
cups on and get shat upon by a cow.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
Oh, no, no, definitely keen to be involved, so... when
I'm representing farmers I need to represent them all and
I need to understand the issues so this is just.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
One of them Alright, hey Colin, Colin Hurst out of Waimate,
you're in Waimate aren't you?
Speaker 2 (06:06):
Yep, we're on State Highway 1 and we're actually at
Makiki of all places Oh where they make the chips
That's right, our farm is on either side of the township.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
Do you grow spuds for the chip factory?
Speaker 2 (06:18):
We have in the past with quite often leased land
for the bleaker family to grow potatoes. Haven't in recent years,
but yeah. No, it's a good enterprise there.
Speaker 1 (06:26):
Yeah, it is indeed. Wonderful chaps. Hey, thank you very
much for your time.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
Thanks, Jamie.
Speaker 1 (06:31):
Yep, good on you. Colin Hurst there, President of Federated Farmers.
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