The Country 15/06/26: Phil Duncan talks to Jamie Mackay

Monday's weather man disagrees with the Hosk over the Super El Nino. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Weather on the country with Fiji where happiness comes naturally
and for you that day day, welcome back to the country.
Wrapping up with Phil Duncan weather Watch with the Weather.
Happy birthday, Donald Trump. It's been a good one for him, Phil.

(00:21):
He's got a peace deal in the Middle East, supposedly,
and he's got the UFC on the White House lawn.

Speaker 2 (00:27):
Yeah, it's a good day to be Donald Trump.

Speaker 1 (00:30):
I'm not sure about that. But anyhow, is it a
good day to be Phil Duncan? Are you a happy
weather man?

Speaker 2 (00:35):
Well, the weather is certainly not a lot of extreme
weather going on at the moment, and we've got basically
the headline this week is cold fronts versus high pressure.
We've got a lot of high pressure in the Tasman
Sea and east of New Zealand, but not over the
top of us. And to be honest with you, these
cold fronts that are moving up New Zealand, one today,

(00:56):
another one later in the week, and with all this
high pressure around us, it's very much like in ol
Nino weather pattern. So we're already seeing that our Nino
pattern showing up in the New Zealand Tasman Sea area,
which is often defined by high pressure out at sea,
and we're on the edges of it, and we get
sort of these cold fronts that move in and we
definitely get a temperature drop, but it's not necessarily producing

(01:19):
huge amounts of brain all over the country.

Speaker 1 (01:20):
Hey, fell I heard Hosking this morning back from his
two week holiday declaring super al Nino was fake news.

Speaker 2 (01:29):
Well, well there we go. So look, there are two
ways of measuring al Nino. There is the global one
where you look at the whole Pacific Ocean, and that's
where you see this super al nino, this much stronger
than usual one being recorded there. The second way of
measuring it is how does that afflect affect New Zealand's
and Australia. And that's a little harder to answer them,

(01:49):
especially because we're quite a small country. One high pressure
zone or one big low can completely cover our weather
for three weeks, and so we're a little bit harder
to work out. As I say, we're already seeing this
Alnino pattern forming. I think since May we've seen a
lot of high pressure around the country. We're getting plenty
of cold fronts, but they're not necessarily delivering massive amounts

(02:11):
of rain in the east, although there is some rain
today in Canterbury, and we'll get some of that rain
moving up into the eastern side of the North Island
through Wide and Upper and Hawks Bay, going into Tomawa.

Speaker 1 (02:21):
And those areas really need a winter recharge, don't they,
Because look come to using field days as a baromater,
phil I can't remember and thirty years odd years agoing
the car parks being drier. So though Ikato regions certainly
firm underfoot, but especially those eastern regions, they need to
get as much as they can before this super al

(02:41):
Nino might take place.

Speaker 2 (02:44):
Yeah, I mean the concern with a strong al Nino
is that it can enhance our spring and our autumn
weather patterns, and so we get a lot of westerlies.
We might get more of that going into spring. But
there's a tropical load today leaving Fiji. You know, if
it wasn't for the high pressure in the Tasman that
would be a rain maker for us. So that's what
we're likely to be looking at, these these loads that

(03:05):
miss New Zealand's fingers crossed that you know, we get
one that sits over us at some point over the
next couple of months and reverses how dry some places
are getting. That's all it would take.

Speaker 1 (03:15):
Okay, Phil Duncan there from weather Watch, Monday's expert weather
man here on the country